Grand Committee
Arrangement of Business
The Deputy Chairman of Committees (Lord Griffiths of Burry Port) (Lab)
My Lords, by popular acclaim and knowing that some have greatness thrust upon them, we will begin the proceedings. If there is a Division in the Chamber while we are sitting, the Committee will adjourn as soon as the Division Bells are rung and resume after 10 minutes. We have one hour for each debate. I should have stood up to say that; will noble Lords forgive that I did not, or shall I do it again?
Constitutional Commission
(2 years, 6 months ago)
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Lord Wigley
To ask Her Majesty’s Government, further to the recent (1) local elections, and (2) Northern Ireland Assembly elections, what plans they have to set up a commission to consider options for a new constitutional relationship for the four nations of the United Kingdom.
Lord Wigley (PC)
My Lords, I am truly delighted to open this debate with the noble Lord, Lord Griffiths, in the Chair—at least for these few moments.
The recent elections in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland underline the stark political differences between the two nations and the Province on the one hand, and the largest nation in these islands, England, on the other. In Northern Ireland, Sinn Féin, for the first time became the largest party in the Assembly. I only hope that devolved government will soon be functional there. In Scotland, the SNP continues to dominate elections, as it has for 15 years: it gained control of one additional council. In Wales, Labour gained control of one council and now controls eight in total; Plaid Cymru gained three councils and now controls four; 10 have no overall control. In England, however, although Labour and the Liberal Democrats had some gains, the Tories, despite difficulties here at Westminster, still control 35 councils. The contrast is stark.
In both Wales and Scotland, the Conservatives do not control a single council. In Anglesey, with a Tory MP, Plaid Cymru increased its number of councillors from 14 to 21 to gain control. The Conservatives fought every ward and won no seat. YouGov polls suggest that the Tories would now lose most of their Welsh MPs. In some elections, as recently as 2001, not a single Tory won a seat in Wales. Since 1867 there has never been a majority of Conservative MPs in Wales, yet for two-thirds of that time Wales was governed by Tory Governments we did not elect and whose priorities were not ours.
Misgivings with the present constitutional settlement have, over the past decade, triggered an escalating movement for greater independence. These include the perception that devolved powers are being clawed back by Westminster. On Monday I had the First Reading of my Private Member’s Bill, which I think is available today, addressing this issue.
Secondly, there is the manner in which Wales has been short-changed on the pledge that the pre-Brexit structural and social funds would be maintained. In fact, in this three-year period we shall be £770 million poorer.
Thirdly, there is the way in which appointments to senior Civil Service positions in Wales are controlled centrally, with the danger that people lacking a knowledge of Wales are parachuted into key jobs. Wales needs its own integrated public service career structure.
Fourthly, when independent commissions recommend additional powers for Wales’s Senedd—the Silk commission recommended devolved police powers and the report by the noble and learned Lord, Lord Thomas of Cwmgiedd, recommended changes in the legal framework in Wales—their recommendations are simply ignored by UK Governments.
Such arrogance drives people to consider political independence. Today Wales looks more to its own Senedd for the way forward, reflecting our own priorities, values and aspirations. Never was this more clearly seen than in the Welsh Government’s handling of the Covid crisis. The overwhelming majority in Wales believe that our Senedd, Labour led with Plaid support, did a better job than the Boris Johnson Government.
This growing confidence in our own institutions led to growth in the YesCymru cross-party independence campaign. Opinion polls have indicated that up to 39% are tempted by the notion of full independence. The Senedd has established its own commission, chaired by former Archbishop Rowan Williams and Professor Laura McAllister, to explore future relationships between the nations of these islands. One reason for this is the prospect of Scotland becoming an independent country. Thereafter, Westminster would be endlessly ruled by right-wing Governments anathema to Wales. If Scotland quits the union, many believe that Wales will soon follow.
The Scottish electorate have shown consistently since 2007 that they support SNP-led Governments. Their Government at Holyrood have a mandate for another independence referendum, which should be honoured within the lifetime of this Westminster Parliament. If the SNP’s mandate is thwarted by Westminster, unionist parties could be wiped out in Scotland in the next UK general election. A referendum could no longer be denied, particularly if the SNP holds the balance of power in the Commons. If that resulted in a majority for independence, the UK Government would surely have to deliver.
Northern Ireland may conceivably, in the foreseeable future, have a majority for reunification. For that to be acceptable to unionists, there would surely have to be no barriers to the movement of Irish people, goods and money to and fro to Scotland, Wales and England. This too would be the sentiment for Scotland and Wales regarding their relationship with England. Nobody in their right minds, anywhere in Britain, would want to rebuild Offa’s Dyke or Hadrian’s Wall to isolate England from Wales and Scotland. Whatever the ultimate constitutional settlement between our respective nations, there should always be free movement of people, goods and money, with no greater barriers than there are today between Luxembourg and Belgium, or between Ireland and the north of Ireland.
Whether Scotland votes for independence before or after the UK elections, parties at Westminster should consider alternative models for independence, how they would work, and their respective merits and drawbacks. The worst possible scenario would be for Westminster politicians to play a collective game of King Canute, ignoring the new geopolitics of these islands.
With the reunification of Ireland and a pro-independence vote in Scotland at least possibilities, where does that leave Wales? Although Wales currently has no majority for independence, the departure of Scotland and Northern Ireland might well change attitudes.
With these scenarios at least a possibility—some say a probability—I ask the Government whether they intend to sit back and let events dictate policy, as happened with Ireland a century ago, or should there be serious study of alternative models for the post-independence relationship of the nations of these islands? Some colleagues, particularly on the Liberal Democrat Benches, favour a federal constitution for the United Kingdom, but would this be a federation of four nations each with parity, leaving England outvoted by the other three, or weighted by population, leaving the others always outvoted by England? If it were based on English regions, Wales and Scotland would hardly warm to such a status.
Another model makes more sense to me: a confederal approach, in which sovereignty of the three nations and the Province is acknowledged, but they pool their sovereignty for certain purposes—for example, the recognition of the Queen as the head of a Britannic confederation. Plaid Cymru and the SNP currently accept the monarchy as the Head of State, recognising a Britannic dimension to our identity as well as our own national identity. Secondly, there might be an acceptance of sterling as the currency and a reconstituted Bank of England acting as a central bank for a confederation. Thirdly, there is scope for defence co-operation. The SNP supports an independent Scotland being part of NATO, though this is obviously complicated by the question of nuclear weapons. There is surely a pragmatic solution to enable defence co-operation.
The central issue relates to the free movement of goods across the nations of these islands. I accept, sadly, that Brexit will not be reversed in the immediate future, but there is a way forward with not only a free-trade area between the three nations of Britain but, if we include Northern Ireland, a free-trade agreement with the EU itself. That offers a solution to the cross-border Irish problem and could unlock the present impasse, which is threatening stability and peace in Northern Ireland.
I realise that a stumbling block may be Brussels’ insistence on European court jurisdiction, but is it impossible to devise a sui generis new court structure to deal with a confederal Britain? Might there be a parallel court comprised of representatives of the Britannic confederation, the European court and even the Dublin Government with an independent chair, possibly from a country such as Switzerland? That would not only facilitate the Britannic free trade area but safeguard free trade with the EU and solve current difficulties faced by Northern Ireland. This is surely worth exploring now in its own right.
I come to my main objective: to seek a commission to consider the future constitutional relationships of these islands and, in particular, the practicality of a confederal model for the co-operation of the three independent nations, its implications for Ireland and the possibility of a free trade area with the European Union. This commission should be asked to report within 18 months. Many commissions have considered similar issues over the past century. I appeared before Lord Kilbrandon’s commission in 1969 and Lord Richard’s in 2003. I hope this practical suggestion will be considered by the Government. It offers a positive way forward. We have a mutual interest in finding a constructive solution to the constitutional challenges facing the countries of Britain. I invite noble Lords to be equally positive in their response.
Baroness Fraser of Craigmaddie (Con)
My Lords, I thank the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, for securing this debate. I was moved to speak as I felt it was important that there is a Scottish voice. It is a lost opportunity that, unlike Plaid Cymru, the SNP does not feel moved to send representatives to our House. There is nothing the SNP wants more than a new constitutional relationship with England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
The recent local elections and the subsequent council administration pacts illustrate again how divided Scotland remains along constitutional lines. I take issue, however, with the interpretation of the results of the noble Lord, Lord Wigley. The unionist vote is split among the three unionist parties, hence the SNP always seems biggest. The SNP has a woeful record at both local and national level, but its relentless promise of a second referendum, the politicisation of our flags and, frankly, the othering of those who do not share its constitutional view plays to its supporters but continues to divide us.
I led a debate on Scotland in the Chamber on 9 December last year. I commend to noble Lords the contribution that afternoon by my noble friend Lord Dunlop, he of the report. His key message was about getting the tone right. If we want to see a cohesive and co-operative union, he urged
“a culture change from a Whitehall used to issuing directives”.—[Official Report, 9/12/21; col. 2029.]
This Platinum Jubilee weekend was a good time to consider the cohesiveness of the union. I find myself drawn to the New Statesman and a very good article by Helen Thompson, who says:
“Like the Union, the monarchy works”
best when it is allowed, “in all its complexity”, simply to carry on. The monarchy is a shining example of how to successfully navigate the differing nuances of the four nations, celebrating our distinctiveness while acting as a unifier.
Whatever our differences, most Scottish people want the Scottish and UK Governments to work together to ensure the best possible outcomes for everyone. I therefore urge the Minister and Her Majesty’s Government to look first to Westminster. I would like to see a “union filter” applied to every bit of legislation and policy published, but I fear this does not always happen in practice. Too much centralised power is as dangerous in Westminster as it is in Edinburgh. We cannot do anything about the unrelenting focus of Edinburgh on pursuing constitutional change, but let us not do the SNP’s job for it.
We do not need to open the Pandora’s box of a constitutional commission. As Covid and the vaccine rollout demonstrated, the structures for co-operation are already in place; it is just politics that is getting in the way.
Lord Murphy of Torfaen (Lab)
My Lords, I have worked with the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, for the benefit of the people of Wales, I hope, for nearly 35 years and I have much respect for him, but I am not tempted by independence for Wales. I agree with him that there is a movement which goes towards that direction, but by no means anything like what is happening in Scotland. However, the thrust of the noble Lord’s speech was about the improvement of relations between the relevant parts of the United Kingdom and that is absolutely spot-on. The landscape has changed dramatically: he mentioned the situation in Wales, where there is now a legislative assembly called the Senedd; in Scotland, the SNP is of course dominating affairs; and in Northern Ireland, the Assembly and the other institutions are, unfortunately, currently suspended, but it has changed.
Many years ago, I held Cabinet responsibility for intergovernmental relations between the different Parliaments—very primitively in those days. It was not very good, to be honest, and over the last 20 years has got worse, if anything. The Whitehall departments still do not quite understand what devolution is all about. I sometimes think some government Ministers are ignorant of what devolution is all about, although the landscape has in fact changed dramatically.
I very much welcome the excellent report of the noble Lord, Lord Dunlop. There were some very good ideas in it. I welcome Michael Gove’s latest report, also excellent, on how to improve the intergovernmental committee and all the various ministerial committees that exist between the devolved Administrations of these islands. What could be improved is to have more reliance on the institutions of the Good Friday agreement—for example, strand 2 on the north-south relations in Ireland, strand 3 on relations east and west, and the British-Irish Council, which was set up by the Good Friday agreement. The British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference could be dealing with the issue of the protocol but it is not at the moment. There are institutions set up by the Good Friday agreement which could be used to improve relations between the various parts of our country.
I think your Lordships are aware that there is a commission in Wales looking at the constitution at the moment, chaired by Rowan Williams—Lord Williams. I gave evidence to it some weeks ago. It is an excellent committee and will come up with some very interesting suggestions. The Government of Wales are already looking at how the Welsh Parliament, the Senedd, is to be elected and the Labour Party has a commission, of which I am a member, led by Gordon Brown on what might be the nature of these intergovernmental relations in future. So although we do not have, as I think we should, a government-sponsored United Kingdom commission to look at those relationships, work has been done in Cardiff and in the Labour Party. I hope that the Minister can assure your Lordships that the Government are seriously looking at whether a commission could be used for the rest of the United Kingdom.
Baroness Humphreys (LD)
My Lords, I thank the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, for securing this important and timely debate. It deals with an issue that we need to continue highlighting.
Last month’s local government elections in the UK have given many of us food for thought. The Conservatives lost around 500 seats across the UK and nearly half of their seats in Wales, where they now control no councils at all. Conwy County, where I live, sums up their situation: they saw their total number of councillors halved, to five, and their further 42 candidates failed to gain seats. This is in a constituency with a Conservative MP, a Conservative Member of the Senedd, a fully staffed office and seemingly unlimited funds to spend on their campaign.
As I said in my response to the gracious Speech, with such election results I query whether this Government can still claim to have a mandate for their policies in Wales. Their policies have damaged our devolution settlement, undermined the powers of the Senedd, depleted funds available to the Senedd for economic projects and led to an upsurge in those considering opting to vote for independence in any future referendum.
The election results in Northern Ireland bring a border poll ever closer. In Scotland, the pro-independence SNP gained further seats. Voters in the devolved nations are disenchanted by the aggressive unionism on offer from this Government. They find nothing attractive in it and feel that they are faced with a binary choice between this and seeking independence.
From these Liberal Democrat Benches, we would support the setting up of a commission to examine the constitutional relationship for the four nations. Our vision, of course, is of a federal United Kingdom based on a stable, long-term framework in which real power is exercised by and within empowered nations, together with the regions and local communities. Although I will always be grateful to the Tony Blair Government for beginning the devolution process that I hold dear, I regret that our destination has never really been clear. There has never been a route map to guide us. Perhaps a commission at some point might have helped. Crucially, there has never been a place for England in the devolution process.
The UK is an unequal and unbalanced union, and a union that is beginning to fracture. In the words of WB Yeats:
“Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold”.
If we believe that our political centre cannot hold, it is our duty as politicians to examine alternative structures and present them to the electorate to enable them to make informed choices—a process that the Welsh Government have already begun for the people of Wales in the form of a constitutional commission.
Baroness Ritchie of Downpatrick (Lab)
My Lords, I want to take this opportunity to congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, on securing this debate, which focuses on the establishment of a commission to consider options for a new constitutional arrangement and relationship.
I come from Northern Ireland, where we have just had Assembly elections. They have led simply to further division, with no government institutions up and running. I say to the Minister that it is incumbent on both the British and Irish Governments, as co-guarantors of the Good Friday agreement—as the noble Lord, Lord Murphy, said, the agreement contains all the various aspects of a British/Irish, north/south and internal arrangement in Northern Ireland and therefore provides the facility for an embryonic commission—to ensure that those institutions are up and running to provide the necessary devolution that the people of Northern Ireland require, where local decision-making on a partnership basis can take place.
Sadly, because of the DUP’s opposition to the protocol, we do not have consent for the institutions, whether the Assembly, the Executive, the North/South Ministerial Council, the British-Irish Council or the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference. I agree with the noble Lord, Lord Murphy, that they could provide some solutions if discussion and dialogue took place between the parties that should be forming the Executive in Northern Ireland—along with the SDLP, which will be in opposition, and both Governments. Of course, we could also add in the EU to provide the necessary information and encourage willingness to compromise in this instance.
I come at this as a democratic Irish nationalist who wants to see the people of Ireland united in a totally reconciled new Ireland. The provision for that is already in the framework of the Good Friday agreement. We must use the framework of the agreement and the institutions to build that necessary partnership, with power-sharing and mutual understanding—all the ingredients that the noble Lord, Lord Murphy, discussed and which he was part of as one of the negotiators of that agreement.
I say to the Government that, rather than talking about legislation to disapply parts of the protocol, they must re-energise negotiations with the EU to achieve a resolution to the technical details in the protocol. I asked a Written Question: what technical meetings took place and what technical meetings have taken place since February of this year? We know that no technical meetings have taken place, but in the Answer I got a list of all the meetings that took place from September last year. They were simply fly-in meetings of the then-Minister, the noble Lord, Lord Frost, and Maroš Šefčovič. But we need the people involved in the technical details to work out resolutions to the issues to allow our economy to blossom.
Consent and agreement are key to building trust and partnership, whether we are talking about the resolution of difficulties with the protocol or the resolution that will enable the institutions to be up and running. As the noble Lord, Lord Murphy, said, the facility lies within the Good Friday agreement because of all the institutions it provides for the relationships between Britain and Ireland, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, and within Northern Ireland, and to help build good further relationships between these islands—notwithstanding where I lie in terms of democratic Irish nationalism.
Lord Shipley (LD)
My Lords, I thank the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, for enabling us to have this debate. I agree with him about the need to set up a commission and consider options for a new constitutional relationship for the four nations of the United Kingdom. I want to add to that list the urgent need for a devolution settlement for the regions and sub-regions of England. Doing that requires a commission.
As my noble friend Lady Humphreys has just said, there has never been a place for England in the devolution process and there needs to be one. In three of the countries, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, we currently have a block grant system, and we need a block grant system for the regions and sub-regions of England, to be controlled and managed more locally. To do that requires a commission to examine the options. You cannot run England out of Whitehall; it is simply too big. All the key decisions impacting on England are taken in Whitehall on a hub-and-spoke model in which Whitehall is the hub and elected mayors of combined authorities become the spokes. They compete with each other for resources at a time when budgets are being cut.
My attention was drawn to a report from March this year by the Institute for Government on the theory and practice of the Barnett formula. I will quote two paragraphs from it.
“Our view is that, in principle, Barnett should be replaced by a system that shares out resources in line with a clearly stated set of funding principles, applied consistently and transparently to devolved governments across the UK and to the cities and regions of England”.
I agree entirely. We have now reached a point where this has become essential. The noble Lord, Lord Wigley, referred to the shared prosperity fund and the figure of—I think I quote him rightly—£770 million lost to Wales as part of the loss of direct European funding. Of course, that has impacted on England. It would be helpful if the Government wrote to Members taking part in this short debate to explain what has happened to the loss of ERDF and ESF funding because it is very serious for the rest of the UK and, in respect of what I am trying to argue, for the regions and sub-regions of England. They have also all lost the six-year programming they had from European structural funding.
I am very concerned about how decisions are made in Whitehall. On the shared prosperity fund, yesterday the Public Accounts Committee said clearly that the total sum is lower than the European funding produced by the ERDF and ESF, so some facts and figures from the Government would be helpful. The Public Accounts Committee criticised the ill thought-out levelling-up plans through the allocation of funding yesterday, saying they were “unsatisfactory”. One reason for that is the excessive central control exercised by the Government.
Baroness Bloomfield of Hinton Waldrist (Con)
Perhaps the noble Lord could come to a close. We are very short of time today.
Lord Shipley (LD)
I am sorry; we have no clocks in front of us—that is the problem. In conclusion, the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, talked of the stark political differences there are now. He talked of the clawing-back of devolved powers and he is absolutely right. That commission is needed more urgently than it has been for many years.
Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)
My Lords, I congratulate my noble friend Lord Griffiths on his willingness to stand in the breach to chair so brilliantly. I also congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Wigley. He and I were on very different sides in the 1970s, when Plaid had a more separatist agenda and I was a member of the so-called gang of six. There has been a degree of convergence since and I am delighted to debate this issue with him. It is topical and timely now, because of the number of initiatives under way, as has been said.
I make a simple point: no institution is static; all institutions are dynamic. No one seriously expects the current settlement between the different nations of the United Kingdom to be the same in, say, five years. There will be some form of development, so the question is: in what form and what direction will it take? Will it be ad hoc, modest, incremental and with no end in sight? Or will it be a more radical project, as perhaps envisaged in the initiative taken by the Government of Wales? That is the basic subject of our debate.
The noble Lord, Lord Wigley, called for options, but we all know what they are. There is a whole spectrum of options. If the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, and I were to sit down together, we would say that at one end of the spectrum is independence; at the other is the status quo. There is a whole series of steps in between. I am personally inclined to favour the more federal or quasi-federal system, perhaps a more ad hoc or à la carte one, as in Spain. That is something I think should be examined well.
I will not touch on the human rights Act the Government are proposing, as I think they could run into great difficulties with the European Convention on Human Rights.
I make one final point: we have been here before. I am old enough to recall the Crowther-Kilbrandon report of 1969 and 1973, which clearly set out the options in parts 5 to 8. That commission, with all the good of the people who put their best endeavours and expertise together, has been forgotten. It is hardly a footnote in an academic treatise. There are surely some lessons for us: we should not be concerned about just options, but the political will to deliver any options around which a consensus may form.
Baroness Bloomfield of Hinton Waldrist (Con)
As the noble Lord is going over his speaking limit, perhaps he could bring his comments to an end.
Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)
Let us be aware of and beware the precedent of Kilbrandon, and decide to deliver.
Lord Jones (Lab)
My Lords, I thank the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, for his deeply committed introduction to this debate. I acknowledge his long-standing campaigning for devolved government in the other place, in the then Welsh Assembly and across the length and breadth of the lovely land of Wales—my own homeland.
In May 1945 Winston Churchill wrote to Clement Attlee suggesting the continuation of the wartime coalition and putting the suggestion to the people by means of a referendum. Mr Attlee replied:
“I could not consent to the introduction into our national life of a device so alien to all our traditions as the referendum”.
As a balance in this debate, I offer the Economist from April and its leader headlined “These septic isles”. It was blunt and severe, but it calls for a new constitutional settlement. I quote:
“Relations with Westminster are dysfunctional … Under devolution, powers were crudely handed out around the United Kingdom, but the politics favour blaming the centre rather than working with it … Under New Labour, the devolved parliaments in Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast were meant to bring bread-and-butter issues … before each country’s voters. Instead such issues are neglected, because elections are dominated by unresolved arguments about the constitution.”
Let us have the commission, but please get on with making the lives of ordinary citizens better. Our schools and the health service are urgent priorities.
Today the Cardiff Senedd offers good, honourable governance of integrity. It should be proud of its two decades of social and economic advances. It was a brilliant, seamless transfer of constitutional powers from London to Cardiff. It deserves a renewed vote of confidence. Devolution is here to stay; it is irreversible, and surely much more is to come. These two decades of powers are but an eye-blink in Wales’s national history.
Commissions there have been aplenty, but how often are their proposals effected? Harold Wilson said, smiling wickedly, that commissions decided upon in minutes take years to report. I say to the noble Baroness, Lady Fraser, that Professor Helen Thompson, in the current issue of the New Statesman, emphasises:
“The Crown and the military are still the most important symbols of Britishness.”
It is a fact that Mr Gordon Brown, at the request of the party chairman and high command, is examining devolution and constitutional change. I bet he proposes more devolved government and further constitutional change. I guess that change refers to your Lordships’ House also; he is mindful of my noble friend Lady Jay’s defenestration of some 600 aristocrats not so long ago. Lastly, my further guess is that Her Majesty’s Opposition will largely espouse Mr Brown’s findings in their manifesto. A changed Government after the general election would, in all likelihood, embrace devolutionary and constitutional advances.
Baroness Bennett of Manor Castle (GP)
My Lords, I feel I should declare some positions: the England and Wales Green Party has long championed a Cornwall assembly, a Yorkshire assembly or parliament and similar around the rest of England; the Welsh Green Party has said it will campaign for independence should a referendum be called; and the Scottish Greens have long been pro-independence.
Having put those cards on the table, I thank the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, both for securing this debate and for his creative, positive introduction to it. I particularly thank him for the chance to celebrate the local election results, which were truly spectacular for the Green Party. One of the outcomes is that there are now 18 councils, as well as the one council we run, in which we are part of some form of rainbow coalition—groupings of a number of parties working together co-operatively for the common good.
These are usually classified as councils under “no overall control”. One thing I would like to highlight is that we really need to rephrase that terminology and look at these as councils in co-operative operation, where people are working together to govern. This is a very different model from the traditional model of British governance and, I argue, demonstrably a far better one. To suggest some of the places I happen to know about where this is working well, Lewes is a particular highlight. In diverse places such as Herefordshire and Sheffield, this is working well.
Of course, in Scotland we have Green Party Ministers. I will pick up a point from the noble Baroness, Lady Fraser, who suggested that there was perhaps an exclusionary model of Scottish nationalism. The nationalism championed by the Green Party is very much a civic, inclusive nationalism—one that acknowledges that the Syrian refugee who arrived last week is as much a part of the community as anybody else. Maybe England could learn from that form of nationalism.
It is clear from this debate that pretty well everyone agrees that what we have now is broken. Indeed, the noble Lord, Lord Jones, just mentioned the Economist, the Government promised in their manifesto to have a commission, and the Labour Party would have a commission. We have heard a lot of suggestions, but even the commission, which would be a positive step forward, is still very much the establishment rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic: the great and the good sit in a room like this, possibly under some dreadful art like in this room, and decide how to rearrange things.
I have an alternative proposal. Let us have a people’s constitutional convention, an assembly that represents all the peoples of these isles—of course, we could have them at different levels in the nations as well—and collectively allow the people to democratically decide how we should change, start from scratch and redraw our currently totally outdated, dysfunctional, unworkable constitutional arrangements between the nations and, indeed, in this House and the other place et cetera. We need change. Let us not draw up the changes; let us let the people decide.
Lord Griffiths of Burry Port (Lab)
My Lords, I am a shooting star for a minute and a half, with due thanks to my noble friend Lord Wigley.
In the time that I have been in your Lordships’ House, I have noticed a number of measures moving through to completion that had constitutional dimensions to them. Therefore, I feel that a situation we thought we understood has, either by accretion or erosion, been sometimes quite severely affected. What I pick up from the Question as central to a need felt more keenly now than it could have been before is that we need to take time out to have a convention—call it what you like—where we look at what is happening in a situation where, if we are honest, power is not only held and disposed of centrally but disposed of by the Executive at the expense of other aspects of government.
Granted the anomalous situations that exist in Scotland and in Wales, and ominous possibilities of what might or might not happen in Ireland, this should be a moment where we stand apart and take a good look at what has become of us. I would like the methodology that underpins such a convention to resemble more what happened to bring the Good Friday agreement into being in Northern Ireland: namely, endless talks behind and out of sight to achieve something that gives us an opportunity to create ideas we can live with.
I do not think a debate of this kind, for all the worthiness of some of the things put forward, can possibly achieve the outcomes we are looking for, but it can hint at something. I end simply by taking other lines of WB Yeats’s poem that was partly quoted earlier. Yes, it is true that “Things fall apart”, and “The centre cannot hold”. It is true that
“Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world”
and that
“The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.”
Was there ever a description of now better than that, although it is 100 years old? Was there ever a statement of how things are that better describes our need radically to look at where we are and how we can move forward, with trust and respect, one for another?
Lord Wallace of Saltaire (LD)
My Lords, I must declare an interest as I had a memo published in the Kilbrandon commission’s report; one can find it in the second half of volume 10. That shows my age.
It is a huge disappointment to us all that the commitment in the 2019 Conservative manifesto to hold a commission on the constitution is one of the many promises that our Prime Minister has broken. We need one; there is general agreement here that we need one. It is a huge disappointment that we have such a London-based Government. The resentment against them is not only in Scotland, Wales and parts of Northern Ireland; we are increasingly seeing it in the north and south-west of England.
It is a puzzle for many of us that the most devolved part of England is London itself. It has more powers than the regions and allows two levels of representative government, whereas we in Yorkshire are told that we all must have only one level. The new model for this absurd, single-tier government that has just been imposed on North Yorkshire was very reluctantly accepted by the people there.
The assertive, aggressive unionism that this Government respect is as disastrous as the unionism represented in the 1880s and 1890s. The extent to which AV Dicey, the authority on Westminster sovereignty, was quoted to me last year by a government Minister as defining our approach to sovereignty, governing this Government’s assumption that they are allowed to tell everyone what to do, is part of what is wrong. Remember that AV Dicey wrote what he wrote because he was avowedly against Irish home rule and aggressively unionist. What did it lead to? The division of Ireland and nearly a civil war.
That is where we are. I recognise that Boris Johnson is very much part of the problem. Last weekend, I was talking on the phone to one of my Scottish relations, who I know voted Liberal Democrat in the local elections in Edinburgh. He said to me, “If he’s still there in three or four years’ time, I know which way I’ll vote in another referendum”. That is there—the noble Baroness, Lady Fraser, knows it—in the way a lot of people in Scotland think. I am going up to Scotland tonight; I have no doubt that, tomorrow, lots of people will tell me much the same thing. We need to address this. We cannot ignore the problem.
I merely wish to add that resentment in the regions of England about what is going on is also rising. If you saw the Yorkshire media’s response to the integrated rail strategy provisions, you will have seen the extent to which the assumption is that everything is done for London: “You don’t begin to understand what happens in the north and you’ve cut down the degree of autonomy that we thought we had, even in local government”. We need a constitutional commission. We need to consult as widely as possible, using citizens’ consultations, if we are to hold this country together. We should not ignore the real possibility that the United Kingdom could disintegrate.
Lord Khan of Burnley (Lab)
My Lords, I thank the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, for securing this debate and introducing it so eloquently. It has been a pleasure to listen to the debate and hear from noble Lords with such extensive experience of championing devolution.
Ron Davies, a former Secretary of State for Wales, once said:
“Devolution is a process, not an event.”
The successes of devolution, but also the immense challenges facing it, are only too evident today. It has now been a month since the Northern Ireland Assembly elections and voters are still without a functioning Assembly or Executive. With Parliament currently considering multiple pieces of Northern Ireland legislation, including Bills that we hoped and expected would be debated in Stormont, there could not be a more timely moment for today’s debate.
For all the reasons we have heard today, the Labour Party is looking closely at the future of devolution. Labour is currently operating a constitutional commission to consider the future of our United Kingdom and how power, wealth and opportunity can be devolved to the most local level. This commission is considering all parts of the United Kingdom and will focus on delivering real, lasting economic and political devolution across our towns and communities and to people across the country. It is crucial that we are ambitious about the future of devolution. We need the Government to treat this with the care and thoughtfulness it deserves—not, as has proved the case too often in recent years, as an afterthought.
As well as in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, we need to look at unleashing the potential across the English regions. The Government must make sure that powers coming back from Brussels are not centralised in Westminster but shared across the regions and nations of the United Kingdom. They must also hear from, and work with, our great mayors and council leaders, using their experience and ideas to guide next steps. We must always make the positive case for devolution and champion the process, but also consider how we can strengthen the relationships and co-operation which underlie the union.
The noble Baroness, Lady Fraser, cited Professor Helen Thompson’s article about the monarchy and how the union must also “carry on”. My point to the Minister on this issue is that we need to give it due respect, consideration and attention. We cannot carry on as normal. I look forward to hearing the Minister’s response and, more importantly, the plan. We want to hear the plan that the Government will bring forward to address this very important and timely issue.
The Minister of State, Home Office and Department for Levelling Up, Housing & Communities (Lord Greenhalgh) (Con)
My Lords, I thank the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, for securing a debate on this incredibly important topic. The Constitution Committee recently published its report on the union of the United Kingdom and, in addition to the points raised in that report, it has been very interesting for me to hear the contributions from noble Lords.
I take issue with the idea that there is an aggressive form of unionism. This Government are really committed to strengthening the union of the United Kingdom, protecting and promoting its combined strengths and the values that we all share, and ensuring that the institutions of the United Kingdom are used to benefit people in every part of the country, building on hundreds of years of partnership and a shared history since the Acts of Union.
We are also great believers in devolution, and that it allows communities across the four nations to reap the benefits of the broad shoulders of the union, while benefiting from decisions being placed closest to those who they affect. We remain committed to working collaboratively with the devolved Administrations to support people across the whole of the UK. As my noble friend Lady Fraser put it, we have the structures in place and now need to focus on getting the tone right. The arrangements agreed in the intergovernmental relations review herald a new era for collaboration across the United Kingdom, facilitating the sharing of experiences and learning. I point out that there were 110 ministerial meetings in the first quarter of this year alone and 440 such meetings last year, so collaboration is strong.
We are focusing across the United Kingdom to deliver better outcomes for citizens to tackle the shared challenges that we face, from providing up to £400 billion in Covid support for individuals, business and public services to close collaboration on the approach to settling the Ukrainian refugee issue. We should recognise that the Autumn Budget had the first allocation of the UK-wide growth funds, including the levelling-up fund and community ownership fund. That provided the largest annual block grants, in real terms, of any spending review settlement since the devolution of 1998.
I point out to the noble Lord, Lord Shipley, that the UK shared prosperity funding for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland matches the size of the ERDF and the ESF in real terms, when it is fully ramped up to 2025. I reject the notion of any kind of power grab; there is 25% more per person for the Scottish Government, 20% more per person for the Welsh Government and 21% more per person for the Northern Ireland Executive, when we look at UK government spending over the SR21 period.
In response to the noble Lord, Lord Murphy of Torfaen, on looking seriously at any of the independent commissions, we will continue to make sure that constitutional arrangements remain fit for purpose. Instead of a single commission, we are already taking forward separate workstreams, such as the Judicial Review and Courts Act, and delivery of the Dunlop review. The noble Lords, Lord Khan and Lord Wigley, and others mentioned the Welsh constitution commission. The Secretary of State for Wales and the Minister for Levelling Up, the Union and Constitution have given evidence to that commission, and we are looking forward to heading its findings in due course.
The noble Lord, Lord Murphy, and the noble Baroness, Lady Ritchie, raised the importance of using the structures of the Good Friday agreement and ensuring that they are used to get the Administration up and running again. The institutions of the Good Friday agreement are up and running and the next British-Irish Council is on 7 July. The focus should be on wider issues such as the cost of living. That is what the polling suggests.
We recognise that collaboration is at the heart of the Government’s core mission for the whole of the United Kingdom. That is reflected in our levelling-up White Paper. We recognise that in Northern Ireland it is vital that the parties form an Executive as soon as possible. We are very keen that that is through negotiation but, if not, we are looking at other ways of dealing with that.
Finally, I thank noble Lords on all sides of the Committee for their contributions today. I know it has been hard to stick to time without a clock, but we have managed to get through the debate in the allotted time. I particularly thank the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, for securing this incredibly important debate.
Arrangement of Business
The Deputy Chairman of Committees (Baroness McIntosh of Hudnall) (Lab)
My Lords, may I very respectfully make a suggestion in view of what the Minister has just said? Those noble Lords who have a mobile telephone with an alarm function could set it for the number of minutes they have available to them and watch that rather than the evidently malfunctioning clock. I say that because I just gave that advice to the noble Baroness, Lady Fookes, and she seemed to know what I was talking about.
Tree Health in England
(2 years, 6 months ago)
Grand CommitteeRead Full debate Read Hansard Text Read Debate Ministerial Extracts
Lord Harries of Pentregarth
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the health of trees in England; and what progress they have made towards developing a variety of ash that is resistant to ash dieback.
Lord Harries of Pentregarth (CB)
I know that two fundamental assumptions will underly all the contributions to this debate by your Lordships: first, trees are absolutely essential for the environment, the future of the climate and human well-being; secondly, many of them are in a very poor state indeed. They are under threat, notably because of ash dieback.
In 2018 the Government produced their Tree Health Resilience Strategy. Four years later is a very good time to ask the Government what progress has been made on what they set out to do in that. What success has there been? I know your Lordships will want to focus on a range of issues, not least bio protection, but I want to concentrate on ash and elms.
We know how ash dieback came into the country, how rapidly it spread and how devastating its effect has been. But there is some good news to report. In 2009 it was reported that researchers from Queen Mary University of London and Kew sequenced the DNA from over 1,250 ash trees to find inherited genes associated with ash dieback resistance. About this, Professor Richard Nichols said:
“Now we have established which genes are important for resistance we can predict which trees will survive ash dieback. This will help identify susceptible trees that need to be removed from woodlands, and provide the foundations for breeding more resistant trees in future.”
This is obviously very hopeful, but the words are “This will help”. It would be good if the Minister could say anything more certain about how far it is now possible to identify resistant trees and whether they are being successfully developed.
There is more good news. Research from the Nornex project led by the John Innes Centre in Norfolk was reported in April. It has developed three genetic markers which enable it to predict whether a tree is likely to be tolerant of disease, and even whether it is likely to be mildly or strongly tolerant. In particular, it has developed a tree it has named Betty that shows strong tolerance. Again, it would be good if the Government could say any more about the timescale and when any significant proposals for replanting might come about.
All this is encouraging, and I recognise that this kind of research is complex and time consuming, but there is an urgency about this task. It is now some 50 years since the devastation caused by Dutch elm disease. It was once one of the most familiar and loved trees of the English landscape, painted by John Constable among others, but 25 million elms were wiped out: 90% of the population. Again, there is some good news to report here. Apparently, in 2019 some elms resistant to the disease had been developed, but the information is somewhat sparse.
More recently, nursery and garden centre company Hillier has described a variety of elm called Ulmus New Horizon that it states is 100% resistant to Dutch elm disease. It has been cultivated since the 1990s, but it took until 2019 to build enough stock to launch it commercially. This is not a native English elm and, from what has been said, it looks as though we will not be able to get native elms back, but it is a closely related hybrid.
It is also worth noting the Great British Elm Projects, which stated:
“This involved a propagation programme … of a large number of Sapporo Autumn Gold elms, a disease resistant hybrid developed by the University of Wisconsin.”
I also note the Centre for Forest Protection, which was established as part of the 2021 English trees plan and launched in May this year along with the new Forest Research Holt Laboratory. Their work will be vital for the future.
A lot is going on around the place, and I recognise that research takes a long time, especially with slow-growing organisms such as trees, but with the kind of genetic testing now being used for the ash, which was simply unavailable 50 years ago for the elm, surely it must be possible to speed up research and replanting. We cannot afford to wait 60 years for the ash, as we have for the elm. There is an urgency because of climate change. As has been well put:
“Trees are the ultimate carbon capture and storage machines. Like great carbon sinks, woods and forests absorb atmospheric carbon and lock it up for centuries … They also … help … Prevent flooding … Reduce city temperature … Reduce pollution … Keep soil nutrient-rich”.
The Government have a policy to try to increase tree planting. Their target, as set out in 2018, was to increase tree cover in England to 12% by 2060 by planting 180,000 hectares of trees, including a new northern forest. Can the Minister say anything more about what progress has been achieved towards that target?
To conclude, there is good news, but there is urgency about this task. If more money was put into research in this area, would it in fact speed it up? If it would, it would surely be justified. It is obvious from what I have said that research is going on in all sorts of different institutions in different places. Does Defra have a special subunit monitoring what is going on and keeping on top of it? It would be very useful if it had, because this information needs to be widely propagated and kept under permanent review.
The Earl of Caithness (Con)
My Lords, I think we are all extremely grateful to the noble and right reverend Lord for introducing this important debate. It is not just the loss of diseased trees that we need to consider but all the consequences. Ash holds a special place in the ecosystem of woodlands. Because of its characteristics, it is a good tree for reducing atmospheric CO2, while 1,058 species from birds to lichens are associated with ash. As with elm trees, the large-scale loss of ash is having a significant impact on a range of species and habitats, as well as the economics of broad-leaved woodlands.
Much is known about the phenology of autumnal leaf fall, gene tolerance and microbial symbionts associated with resistance of ash, but progress on that alone will not solve the problem. Far too many in the forestry establishment still think that disease is an act of God and wilfully do not look at the influence of us humans and the effect we have on this situation. That influence is called management; more accurately, I call it bad management. We know that most of our woodlands in this country are in bad condition—what an indictment.
Planting blocks of the same species with a view to clear-felling is a recipe for increasing disease and pest problems and is unnatural. For over 50 years I have banged the drum for working with nature and for mixed, uneven-age forestry. Dense woods put the trees under pressure and ash, like oak, is very intolerant of lateral competition. Stressed trees are more susceptible to disease. Dense stands lead to quiet, humid conditions, which increase spore production and retention within the stand.
Some enlightened companies, such as SelectFor Ltd, have been pursuing irregular silviculture and continuous cover for many years. It has backed its belief with scientific research, using the universities of Salford and York. Initial results indicate that even with genetically tested trees other factors, such as environment and management, are involved in the trees’ ability to survive infection. The University of Birmingham’s work supports this: initial results show that ash survive better if planted alongside cherry but worse if planted alongside lime.
These bits of work demonstrate the importance of management and Defra should help to fund them. Management should feature strongly in the forthcoming government paper. On funding, how much is Defra spending on trees and disease research in the current year? What is the budget for the next two years? Why are some NGOs receiving 100% grant support when taxpayers’ money is better utilised to leverage private sector finance?
I also ask my noble friend to stop everybody using the facetious slogan “right tree in right place”. I remind him: right tree—lodgepole pine; right place—Flow Country in Caithness; result—disaster.
Baroness Young of Old Scone (Lab)
My Lords, hear, hear. I declare an interest as chairman of the Woodland Trust. Ash dieback is very serious. The study in 2019 showed that the long-term economic and environmental cost would be about £7 billion over the next 10 years. Ash supports more than 900 other species, of which 44 are entirely dependent on ash. They are very important—particularly, in my view, because they are the most prevalent form of standard trees in hedgerows, and hedgerows with standard trees are vital for the movement of species across the countryside that will be required with climate change.
The noble and right reverend Lord, Lord Harries, outlined how some trees appear more resistant, or at least tolerant, of ash dieback, but there is a long way to go before we are in a position where we will have tolerant seed stock on a widespread scale and are able to plant trees that will persist in the environment. The reality is that we should not hold our breath on the research. We need to take steps now. One of them is not to cut down trees that have ash dieback unless they are a risk to human health and safety. We are unnecessarily destroying trees that may recover or show signs of tolerance or resistance.
Ash dieback is only one of the diseases that affects trees. There is now a pathogen, pest or disease for almost every single species of tree that we have in this country—and if not here already they are lurking somewhere on the continent, ready to come. It is vital that we take tree health and biosecurity seriously across the board, particularly in view of the fact that we are dashing to plant and regenerate trees in the face of climate change: there is no point in increasing the tree cover if it is promptly going to die.
In conclusion—I have already had two minutes and 15 seconds on my timer—I urge the Minister to think about three things in terms of tree health measures. First, let us really have a drive to reduce imports by promoting the UK nursery sector. Will he support—as he is already doing—and promote even more firmly the UK and Ireland Sourced and Grown accreditation system, which aims at all tree stock, from seed to mature tree, being grown in this country or Ireland?
Will he tell us and get on with—this is more of a government-wide issue—the delayed last stage of implementation of the UK sanitary and phytosanitary regime? We still have distressing examples of new pests getting past port controls: the recent introduction of the pine processionary moth in April is just one example. So, when will we finally get the SPS fully implemented?
Lastly, will the Minister tell us when we will see the new version of the GB plant biosecurity strategy and, particularly, its associated industry plant health accord? It is vital that the whole tree planting and nursery industry, along with the conservation world, is massed behind this effort if we are to see healthy woodlands providing places for biodiversity, places for people and combating climate change—and I have finished before the end of my alarm, which was going to quack like a duck.
Baroness Fookes (Con)
My Lords, I must first declare my interest as co-chairman of the All-Party Parliamentary Gardening and Horticulture Group—and what a mouthful that is to say. I would like to make a general point first about the three types of trees: there are those that are involved with forestry; those involved with woodland management; and those involved with arboriculture—the amenity parts of trees. I have a suspicion that the Government take the arboricultural side of things less seriously, and I hope I can be told I am wrong by the Minister when he comes to sum up. But they are an extremely important aspect when dealing with the health of trees.
I will not dwell on the issue of ash dieback, as it has been so comprehensively dealt with by the noble and right reverend Lord, Lord Harries, and others before me. I want to concentrate now on threats to come. I have been told that there are at least 47 pests and diseases beyond our shores, at present, but which may reach our shores in the next decade. Therefore, it is extremely important that every measure possible is taken to deal with that issue.
I spoke a year or two back to the director of horticulture at Kew’s Royal Botanic Gardens and I thought that their policy on new trees was a lesson for us all. First, they seek to buy from British sources only—British nurseries. If that is impossible, they will buy imported trees but those are then, rather like dogs of old, quarantined for six months in a special area before they are allowed out into the wider community.
That may be a counsel of perfection not possible for all, but it chimes with the point made by the noble Baroness, Lady Young, that we need to increase production in tree nurseries by helping and supporting them. I guess there is a limit to the number of sites on which they can produce, but it is important that they have some knowledge of the future orders that might be placed by local authorities or the Government. They need good warning, because it takes up to five years to produce the sorts of trees required for such schemes.
Next, it is important that the public are warned loudly, clearly and frequently about the dangers of bringing in a few little plants that they saw abroad and think would be rather nice to have at home. That is one way in which pathogens, pests and diseases can come in.
Finally, there is the position of the Government in dealing with both research and, more importantly, biosecurity measures for imports. I hope there will be both thoroughness and speed because, if things take too long and are too bureaucratic, living creatures may die on the way to their destination. That must be avoided. It would help if the Government had a list of the most dangerous pests and diseases and concentrated their controls on those they regard as the most difficult to deal with. That would help the nursery trade and others to deal with a very serious situation.
Among the 47 is the emerald ash borer. On this pessimistic note, because it might nibble horribly at trees that we hope are resistant so must not get in at any cost, I rest my case.
Lord Inglewood (Non-Afl)
My Lords, I begin by declaring my interests in the register and explaining that I own some ash trees. One of my abiding memories of the Platinum Jubilee weekend was the obvious impact of ash dieback on the tree cover of Cumbria: everywhere were black, skeletal twigs protruding through the tree canopy. This pandemic predates Covid and moves more slowly, but it is a real pestilence just the same. We have not talked about it as much as Covid-19, fortunately, but the noble and right reverend Lord, Lord Harries, has done us a good turn in bringing this debate.
We should not be surprised by something such as this happening. After all, Dutch elm disease occurred in this country’s living memory and, before that, in the 1930s. Pundits have predicted this kind of thing and historians of nature, ecology and the environment have chronicled this kind of happening regularly, from time to time over the centuries. That is not to say it is not sad. We regret that the landscape, as we know it, is losing a very important component and is dying in front of our eyes. But something else will emerge. While it is destroying part of our living world, it is not destroying the world itself.
As other noble Lords have said, I understand that some trees are likely to be resistant. As long as they are spared the woodman’s axe and their natural offspring are allowed to grow, we, in partnership with plant breeders, will be able to replenish our countryside’s ash trees. As has been said, the life cycle of trees is long. It is not the end of the ash, any more than Dutch elm disease completely wiped out the English elm or wych elm.
It seems to be agreed that tree nurseries spread the disease from spores contained in stock raised on the continent. In this context, we need to be clear that we have always had phytosanitary arrangements and being in the single market did not affect that. As others have said, we have to tighten them up. I suspect that, in addition to a number of pernicious plant diseases, we will see more invasive species that are likely to carry out a lot of damage. I put it to your Lordships that the grey squirrel has probably done more damage to British tree cover than ash dieback has. We have to plan for this happening. The problem is that, like generals, we are always tempted to fight the last war. It has also been suggested that spores may have blown over the North Sea. If that sort of thing happens again, it will be rather more difficult to deal with.
What should we do? First, we should breed and propagate resistant ash trees. Secondly, we should replace them but, if that is expensive, with diversified species, as has been said. We should not be too frightened of these alleged non-native species, such as sycamore, beech and Spanish chestnut. The greater the diversity we have, the greater the chance is of some of them dying.
If an outbreak of some disease is discovered, we should monitor it, destroy it and—I add this deliberately —properly compensate for those trees lost. It is much cheaper to spend a bit of money and properly wipe out the disease than for people not to report it and then for it to run out of control.
Finally, we obviously must cut down and destroy the infected trees. It is on this point that I wish to conclude, since many of these trees are on the edge of the highway. For safety reasons, they have to be taken down quickly. For that to be done, it is necessary to have traffic lights, which require a permit from the local authority. These require a payment. I gather that the amount varies significantly from local authority to local authority. It looks to me as if some are profiteering from it. I ask the Minister to look into this and suggest that permits should be issued either free or for a nominal sum. It does not seem right that local authorities look as if they profit from this, in the same way that it was said that some suppliers of PPE did in the Covid outbreak.
Lord Framlingham (Con)
My Lords, like us all, I have a great love of trees and have been involved with them one way or another all my working life. I attended a meeting at the Forestry Commission’s headquarters in Savile Row in the 1960s, called to discuss Dutch elm disease. Despite the testimony of a roomful of experts in both arboriculture and silviculture, the Government insisted that the situation was not serious. They maintained that Dutch elm disease had been with us since the 1930s, that there had been many peaks and troughs and that this was just another peak. How wrong they were and how tragically that illustrates the need for government to maintain the closest possible contact with organisations that have experts in the field, such as the Arboricultural Association and the Woodland Trust.
The English elm has gone, destroyed by a shipload of logs from Canada. No longer can we enjoy that great majestic cauliflower-crowned tree, so beloved by landscape painters and an intrinsic part of our English countryside. We tried to save it: we pruned it and injected, but all to no avail. However, there is a glimmer of hope. Every year, the elm produces large amounts of new growth in our hedgerows. It increases in size until trunks are about as thick as your wrist and then they succumb again, but it keeps coming. It is tenacious, so there is hope that resistance will come.
The same fate has now befallen our ash trees—again an integral part of our countryside and our lives. They are not just beautiful to look at but very much part of our daily lives, from Morris Minor Traveller woodwork to hockey sticks. There is no cure available: just prune, fell if dangerous and hope for resistant strains to emerge. It is spread by the wind, they say, but it was undoubtedly ably assisted by us importing infected trees and distributing them around the country—unforgivable. Emerald ash borer has already been mentioned—another nasty. It has not yet arrived but is waiting in the wings, if there are any ash trees left to infect.
Oak processionary moth was first imported some years ago, but until recently it was confined to the Home Counties. Then in, I think, 2019, and perhaps again recently, we contrived not only to import it but to distribute it all over the country, saving the insects the task of spreading. Again, that is unforgivable.
Most dangerous of all is Xylella fastidiosa, now on its way through Europe towards us. If this gets in it will be truly disastrous, not least because of just how many different species of plant it can kill. Few will be resistant. We have learned not to plant too many trees of the same species in one location, creating a monoculture, which is very susceptible to a total wipeout if struck by a disease specific to that type of tree, but even a careful mixture of species would stand no chance against Xylella.
For all sorts of reasons, demand for trees and shrubs has increased rapidly, and sadly, for all sorts of reasons, has completely outstripped our own producers’ ability to meet it. Importation is on a massive scale and with it all the attendant risks. There are temptations to bend the rules and perhaps not inspect as carefully as necessary.
Two things are vital if we are to win this battle. First, we must have in place the most stringent rules—banning species if need be—that are always on the side of ultra-caution, and look again at the question of quarantine. Secondly, we need an immediate and huge increase in our campaign on awareness, particularly at airports, ferries and other terminals, but in the media generally. As has been mentioned, despite all the dangers, most holidaymakers would not think twice about bringing a plant back from a holiday in Europe. If we can summon up the resolve and the finance to do these two things as a matter of the greatest urgency, we stand a chance. If not, I fear the worst.
Lord Colgrain (Con)
My Lords, I declare my interest as a woodland owner, sadly with far too many dead and dying ash trees in the woods. Shortly after the then Prime Minister David Cameron asked us all to hug a hoodie, I was told that hugging an ash tree was an indication as to whether the tree was mature enough to withstand Chalara. The thinking was that if you embraced an ash tree and your fingers could meet around its back, it was deemed small and immature, and thus susceptible to the disease. If your fingers could not touch, it might be robust enough to resist. I have to report, with much sadness, that this unscientific approach has not proved accurate and that many of the trees I tried to embrace and thought might survive have not.
I mention this because it is no less plausible an approach to identifying those vulnerable to the disease than many others that have been put forward. I am told that approximately 10% of the ash on the continent are surviving the disease, not 20% as the Woodland Trust states. Consequently, there should be a similar percentage of trees surviving here in England but, notwithstanding what the Minister will no doubt say, there seems to be a woeful lack of science currently at work.
Dutch elm disease occurred decades ago and it is only now that inward trials are taking place with resistant whips from UK stock—one site, I am delighted to say, is located in my own county of Kent. At the end of this month, a symposium is taking place at Kew on elm trees and their associated diseases. Given how long it has taken for such a symposium to come about, what does this mean for ash trees? Can the Minister tell us how long we will have to wait before we have similar developments at work on ash?
The Tree Council says that the ash population may recover over 50 years. I fear that this is fanciful; it has not proved to be the case with elms, and there is no prospect of an indigenation of elms regrowing yet. Is there really any meaningful difference between ash and elm? Forest Research says that its ash seed orchard should begin producing resistant trees from the mid-2030s, which really does seem a lifetime away.
For a whole variety of unrelated reasons, we seem to be being visited by one tree disease or pest after another, the spruce Ips beetle being one of the most recent. As my noble friend the Minister knows—I thank him and his department for all their helpful responses to date on this—the compensation payment claims that relate to this one disease are currently clogging up Forestry Commission resources, with the consequence that some felling programmes are being delayed. Disease firewall benefits are thus not coming into being.
Can the Minister give assurances that the necessary staffing resources are being deployed to overcome this impediment? Can he indicate what work is being done to encourage the introduction and planting of new tree species that will be resistant to the climate changes already being experienced, as well as those anticipated? Can he also direct more effort towards the granting of funding for the management of existing woodland, particularly coppicing, rather than directing funds towards new plantings, which are often taking place in inappropriate locations with inappropriate species, as my noble friend Lord Caithness alluded to earlier?
Baroness Bennett of Manor Castle (GP)
My Lords, I thank the noble and right reverend Lord, Lord Harries of Pentregarth, for securing this really important and interesting debate. Like the noble Baroness, Lady Fookes, I am going to concentrate on what she labelled as amenity trees—what I might call street trees or urban trees in general. That is because I want to put some positive spin in here. We need to think about some positive news; we have heard lots of negative news and there is certainly a lot of that around on tree health.
I can attribute campaigners in Sheffield as playing a really important role in raising understanding of the importance of street trees, in particular to public health and well-being, as well as to biodiversity and in cooling our climate emergency-heated cities as well. I note that 19 cities in the UK have now taken the Tree Cities of the World award. A number of these were awarded last month. Sheffield was among them and it is notable that Leeds, Hull and Bradford were too, perhaps influenced by all the public interest in the news that came out of Sheffield, so we are really seeing the valuing of street trees.
But just as we need trees for healthy cities, trees need a healthy environment to flourish in cities. I pick up the point of the noble Earl, Lord Caithness, who talked of the need to a healthy phytobiome of a diversity of trees. Of course, what we also need is clean air; it is good for us and for the trees. I have to point here to my noble friend Lady Jones of Moulsecoomb’s Ella’s law clean air Bill, which is now in your Lordships’ House.
Hard surfaces make trees chronically stressed if they are not given sufficient space, so we desperately need to think about the planning and design of our cities for people and trees. Taking note of the point the noble Earl, Lord Caithness, made, I am not going to say “the right tree in the right place”, but I am going to say that we need the right tree in the nursery. Lots of people have been saying how much we need to grow so many more of our own trees, but we need to think about what kind of trees we are propagating in our nurseries to be street trees. What kind of signals are we giving to the industry? At the moment lots of the street tree plantings are very small rowans and birches, but we want to see the addition of some of those magnificent trees the Victorians planted—the big specimens that truly shade and enrich our cities in ways that little saplings meant to be lollipop trees are never going to.
We have to think about how we make sure we plant trees in cities so that they survive. In Britain, the current figures suggest that around 13% of street trees die in their first couple of years. In a study in Canada, 50% were dead within one year, so we really need to look after our trees.
Finally, I want to focus on a question for the Minister. There is a desperate shortage of trained arborists. The Institute of Chartered Foresters estimates that we need 70% more trained people to meet the Government’s tree-planting goals. Thinking about the pressures on the health of our trees, we desperately need the people who can look after them. I would be interested to hear from the Minister what the Government plan to do to tackle that issue.
Baroness McIntosh of Pickering (Con)
My Lords, I add my congratulations to the noble and right reverend Lord on securing this debate. Will my noble friend the Minister join me in paying tribute to and recognising the work of Fera at Sand Hutton, York, on tree health? I will refer to it in a moment.
In March 2014, in response to the immediate threat of ash tree dieback, the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Select Committee, which I had the honour to chair, published a report, Tree Health and Plant Biosecurity. Its recommendations and conclusions have stood the test of time. I refer in particular to recommendation 18,
“that ring-fenced funding is provided for long-term research and development work that focuses on preparation for future plant health threats”;
recommendation 20, that Defra set up
“immediate initiatives … to address the lack of relevant expertise in the field of plant health”;
and recommendation 22, to develop resistant strains of ash trees without diverting funds from other, more immediate control measures. These recommendations have stood the test of time and I hope that Defra will continue to honour them.
It is a matter of note, as set out by my noble friend Lady Fookes, that there is a very wide range of potential tree and pest combinations that may be of concern heading towards this country. I welcome that Defra, FERA and others, such as Forest Research, contribute to Defra’s risk register, which helps to prioritise action against pests and diseases posing potential threats to UK species.
I take this opportunity to raise a number of questions with my noble friend the Minister. The practice of exporting ash tree seeds from the UK to, for example, Denmark and Poland—areas where trees subsequently reached high levels of infection in the early 2010s—and then reimporting them as saplings contributed at the time to infection of ash tree disease in this country. Will my noble friend consider whether it would be worth banning this practice outright rather than allowing it to continue, potentially contributing to the spread of the disease? Do we need to tighten up tree inspections at borders to ensure the health of trees and that they are safe to import? I refer to the fact that there is no longer a requirement to pre-notify consignments of high-risk trees, yet all plants for planting are effectively pre-notified via the phytosanitary certificate system. I am told that saplings coming into the UK will have been classified as healthy at the country of origin and will likely face an inspection—but how likely? Should we therefore tighten up inspections at the port of entry?
Developing ash trees that prove resistant to future strains has not been that successful so far. Up to 90% of UK ash trees are still at risk of infection. I understand from the Tree Council’s toolkit that only a third of local authorities have signed up to tree strategies. I believe that this should be increased.
Finally, as my noble friend Lord Caithness asked, what is the current funding for the tree strategy and the prevention and control of tree diseases? Will the Minister ensure that FERA has all the tools that it needs at its disposal to ensure that it can keep controls and innovation up to speed to protect us from future infections and diseases from other parts of the world?
Baroness Jones of Whitchurch (Lab)
My Lords, I am grateful to the noble and right reverend Lord, Lord Harries, for tabling this Question and provoking such an interesting debate. I should declare an interest through my involvement at the Rothamsted agricultural institute.
As noble Lords have vividly illustrated, a record number of pests and diseases are arriving on our shores and threatening our native tree population. Species of oak, elm, Scots pine, beech and birch are all at increasing risk from invasive bugs, fungi and bacteria. Quite rightly, there is real concern that our native woodlands could suffer wholesale devastation, with catastrophic impacts for not only the local landscape but our wider environmental and economic objectives.
We all recognise the vital role that trees play in carbon capture and sequestration. This is why we on these Benches have supported the Government’s tree-planting targets, challenging though they have proved to be. For every tree that dies as a result of invasive pests and diseases, meeting the planting target becomes even more of a challenge. So what can we do to prevent the inevitable drift towards woodland devastation?
First, as noble Lords have said, our warmer climate is becoming a magnet for new pests, while others that would have been killed off in harsh winter months continue to thrive and breed in the warmer climates. It is absolutely vital, not only for the obvious reasons but for those reasons as well, that we hit our net-zero targets. Perhaps the Minister can update us on whether he feels that we are playing our part in planting new trees to do that.
Secondly, international travel has fuelled a taste for exotic plants and the globalised trade in live plants has been allowed to outweigh our more pressing concerns about the host plants infecting our native species. As noble Lords have said, we need stronger vigilance and enforcement. We also need an urgent programme to invest in our domestic nursery sector, reducing our reliance on imported saplings.
Thirdly, perhaps most importantly, we need to invest in research into both the prevention and the cure. We need to understand what makes a tree pest-resistant and how we can replicate its genes. We need to understand what natural allies can be harnessed, such as natural microbes that could be enlisted to fight the diseases. We need to understand more about the natural habitats that make trees strong and healthy, including the benefits of planting and protecting diverse native woodlands, smaller woods and natural woodland corridors—a number of noble Lords made this point. We also need to ensure that we have the trained staff for the long-term care and nurturing of woodlands, to maintain them for the longer term. Can the Minister update us on the training programme for a rollout of skilled arborists and foresters to meet those new challenges and provide that support?
Finally, the Government’s tree health resistance strategy has at its heart the need for international collaboration and the sharing of research data, so can the Minister clarify whether we are continuing to participate in the EU pest and disease notification systems? Can he update us on the replacement for TRACES? Are we fully able to map the spread of pests and diseases using this system? Can he also update us on the future of the biological research programmes being funded through Horizon Europe? Will those schemes continue or will the researchers now get equivalent EU funding? As many noble Lords have said, the key and solution to all this is detailed long-term funding, so I would be grateful if the noble Lord could quantify how much actual cash is going into that research. How much is available now and how much in the future? I look forward to his response.
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Lord Benyon) (Con)
My Lords, I start by referring to my entry in the register. As other noble Lords have, I congratulate the noble and right reverend Lord, Lord Harries of Pentregarth, on securing this debate and other noble Lords on their powerful contributions. This is an emotive subject for me. I was looking at a woodland at home the other day, two-thirds or possibly three-quarters of the canopy of which is or was ash. As has been said, this is the first tree disease where the wider public are seeing something really tragic happening to our green and pleasant land.
Trees are of central importance in our efforts to fight back against climate change and biodiversity loss—a point powerfully made by the mover of this debate. That is why the Government have committed to increasing tree planting rates across the country to 30,000 hectares per year by the end of this Parliament. But planting trees is not enough. It is critical that we also protect them from the threats of pests and diseases. Our current treescape has an asset value of £175 billion, but the threat from plant pests and pathogens is significant and growing, driven by increasing globalisation and by climate change.
The noble and right reverend Lord, Lord Harries, asked what assessment Her Majesty’s Government have made of the health of trees. I assure noble Lords that we have a robust and comprehensive plant health system, operating pre-border, at the border and inland, to reduce the risks of pests and diseases entering the country and to manage the impact of established pests. We cannot overlook the professionalism in our nursery sector. I will name Nicholsons in Oxfordshire, which I visited the other day. It has superb phytosanitary policies in place and huge amounts of expertise in its staff, which complements the work done by government employees.
The Government’s UK plant health risk register—this answers a point raised by a number of noble Lords—tracks and prioritises plant health risks. Over 1,200 pests and diseases are listed on the register, 30% of which are capable of attacking trees. Risks are reviewed monthly for action, such as further regulation or increased inspections.
The process also enables us to consider factors that may be pertinent to climate change adaptation, such as identifying pests and diseases that might be expected to increase in range or prevalence due to climate change. Our plant health research and development programme is investigating these potential issues further, aiming to identify and prioritise exotic plant pests and pathogens with the greatest likelihood to establish or spread in the UK as a result of a change in climate.
I chair a monthly biosecurity meeting attended by officials and the Chief Plant Health Officer and I am brought up to date on a more regular basis on the progress across Europe of tree pest and diseases, which are always alarming. My noble friend was right to raise the nightmare potential of Xylella. You only have to go to southern parts of Italy and other parts of southern Europe to see whole landscapes devastated by that disease. It is an absolute priority that we keep it out of these islands.
Since leaving the EU, we have strengthened our import regime by introducing a prohibition on imports of the highest-risk trees, including many native species, and a requirement for phytosanitary certification of all plant imports. We require the pre-notification of all imports of regulated plants and timber to allow for official inspection. Our border inspectors now carry out over 70,000 physical checks each year. We also have a significant inland surveillance programme and have invested additional resources to drive increased inspection rates at the highest-risk sites.
The Forestry Commission is responsible for carrying out ground surveys of over 40,000 trees for priority pests and diseases, such as bark beetles, sweet chestnut blight and canker stain of plane. The Animal and Plant Health Agency carries out over 5,500 inspections at nurseries each year. The Forestry Commission also carries out risk-based aerial surveillance of over 1 million hectares of woodland each year. Aerial surveillance is a powerful and cost-effective tool, with new technology supporting it that enables the Forestry Commission to survey a significantly larger area than would be feasible using ground-based surveys alone.
Citizen science and sightings from the public further enhance surveillance. The Observatree network of trained volunteer health surveyors is a network of over 200 trained volunteers in England, Wales and Scotland, and is supported by a dedicated team of professionals. Lastly, the TreeAlert service is run by Forest Research and receives reports from the general public. These surveillance programmes produce rich datasets, which feed into the Tree Health Diagnostic and Advisory Service, which diagnoses potential pests and pathogens and produces quarterly reports. New statistics released last month show that last year, up to March 2022, the service dealt with a record 3,790 inquiries or samples of suspected tree diseases and pests—a nearly 25% increase on the previous year. This is the public getting involved in science and the risk that we face. The most commonly identified pests and disease were oak processionary moth and ash dieback.
We also aim to limit and manage the outbreaks that occur and are currently taking robust, official and urgent action—the word “urgency” was rightly used by a great many noble Lords—to contain or eradicate a number of regulated pests, such as Ips typographus, Phytophthora pluvialis, Phytophthora ramorum and oak processionary moth, using tree removal or treatment of infested trees. We are deeply indebted to landowners such as my noble friend who, in the south-east of England, have faced the arrival of Ips typographus and are helping us create a cordon sanitaire, so that other insects that blow over from the channel will have nowhere to go because there will be none of that type of spruce there. Dealing with outbreaks is costly so, where feasible, we aim for eradication. One example is the eradication of a small outbreak of Asian longhorn beetle in Kent between 2012 and 2019, which cost around £2 million. In comparison, the cost of managing the insect in the United States, where eradication has not been possible, has been at least $373 million.
An outright ban on plants and trees may seem to some like a simple solution. However, UK production does not currently meet demand and trade in plants and plant material is essential for many reasons, including food security and resilience to climate change. Additionally, many invasive pests, such as ash dieback and Ips typographus, can arrive independently across the channel, having been blown here on warm winds. It is therefore impossible to reduce the risk of new pests and diseases arriving to zero, which is why we have in place this comprehensive system of surveillance and reporting for tree health threats.
We have recently invested £5.8 million to build a new world-leading quarantine laboratory at Forest Research’s Alice Holt site in Hampshire. The new facility means we now have the capability to undertake research and diagnostic work on quarantined pests and pathogens in a secure and contained environment. On top of this, we are investing in measures to increase the resilience of our treescape to future threats. We provided up to £10.5 million in the last financial year to support the sector to increase UK production of diverse, high-quality tree-planting stock and to enhance biosecurity.
At the risk of falling out with my friend, the noble Baroness, Lady Young, I challenge the view among some that we should restrict our plantings in this country just to native species. We face such threats of diseases and climate change that if we put our eggs in too few baskets, the chance of this green and pleasant land remaining so is put further at risk. I want the whole sector, whether NGOs such as the Woodland Trust, which I respect and admire, Confor and the forestry industry, the amenity planters or local authorities, as mentioned by the noble Baroness, Lady Bennett, to work together with a single sense of purpose.
I am running out of time. I will try to address some of the other points raised. On ash dieback, we have planted thousands of the most resistant plants in the south of England and we are monitoring them. As has been said, a lot of work is being done on the genome. There is a relentless attempt to try to home in on the most resistant ash trees, to take stock from them and to build, and not to have to wait for five decades, as we have with elm.
We recognise that the tree-planting targets, which have been referred to, are ambitious. We recognise the importance of hedgerow trees as well. That is a very important point. The loss of ash from that landscape is as devastating as the loss of the elms that I remember.
Noble Lords made many other points; I will sit down and write to them with replies.
Our plant health regime aims to detect and stop new issues at early stages. Where this is not possible, our surveillance systems give us the best chance of discovering and managing, or eradicating, those pests and diseases which do arrive. Government-funded research and development provides hope even against established diseases.
As noble Lords will no doubt appreciate, tree health is an active area in which the Government have invested in recent years. Later this year we will publish an updated plant biosecurity strategy, which the noble Baroness, Lady Young, asked about. On 23 May, we signed a new plant health accord with industry, trade bodies, the Woodland Trust and others. In the accord, we have agreed to work together to promote biosecurity best practice for all—an effort in which I know we are all united.
I am sorry that we have run out of time. A great many questions were asked. I will endeavour to answer them by another means.
NHS: Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections
(2 years, 6 months ago)
Grand CommitteeRead Full debate Read Hansard Text Read Debate Ministerial Extracts
Baroness Ritchie of Downpatrick
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the cost to the NHS associated with managing Respiratory Syncytial Virus infections.
Baroness Ritchie of Downpatrick (Lab)
My Lords, I thank the Minister and the Front-Bench speakers in this important debate, particularly as we emerge from Covid-19 and given the other respiratory viruses that are live in the community. I declare a personal interest: as an infant, I had pneumonia, which was one of these deep-seated respiratory viruses. I am talking about 64 years ago, but the viruses were all put in the family of pneumonia. Out of that emerged bronchiolitis.
Several questions are raised about this issue. The first is: what is respiratory syncytial virus infection? It is a leading cause of severe lower respiratory tract infections among young children and infants. An RSV infection usually causes mild and self-limiting symptoms in children and adults, which resolve within a couple of weeks. Symptoms can include a runny nose, fever and persistent cough—something that most of us can identify with. However, modelling suggests that the virus is responsible for 50% to 90% of hospitalisations among young children due to bronchiolitis, which is a common lower respiratory tract infection predominantly affecting babies and children under two years old. Up to 40% of hospitalisations are due to pneumonia.
So why the concern about RSV now? In late 2021 and early 2022, modelling predicted that RSV levels may double compared to a normal year, with a 100% increase in cases in young infants and a 40% increase in overall infections expected. As a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, the 2021-22 RSV season may be longer, with spikes in infection expected sooner than usual. There was a significant reduction in respiratory viruses during Covid-19 lockdowns, which limited infant exposure to RSV and thus impacted overall immunity. As the restrictions eased, it became apparent that there had been a significant rise in RSV cases and admissions.
Most hospital admissions for RSV in the UK occur in babies who are otherwise healthy. Despite the risk to all infants, studies suggest that 88% of pregnant women and 66% of midwives have no or little awareness of RSV. There are now widespread concerns in the medical community around the impact of RSV on an already stretched health service in the coming months and the cost to the health service of managing RSV infections—hence the subject of this debate.
In an average season in the UK, RSV is estimated to be responsible for more than 450,000 GP visits in children and adolescents, 125,000 cases of ear infection and 416,000 prescriptions of antibiotics. On secondary care, the Academy of Medical Sciences said:
“A lethal triple mix of COVID-19, influenza, and the respiratory virus Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), could push an already depleted NHS to breaking point this winter unless we act now”.
With RSV, there is a cost to the health system, including £48.2 million for secondary care and hospitalisations. There is a direct cost of £65 million, with £15.7 million being spent in primary care on GP consultations. There is also a socioeconomic cost from the direct financial losses of the family and carers of children diagnosed with RSV. These estimated costs are just over £14 million in productivity losses every year. In addition, RSV in children under the age of five is estimated to cost an accumulated total of almost £1.5 million from the out-of-pocket costs incurred to families.
We have to ask what should be done to alleviate the burden on the NHS and to provide relief to infants and young families. In the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic and the nature of RSV infections, what consideration have the Minister and the Department of Health given to this matter? What assessment have the Minister and the department, working with the NHS, undertaken on those costs, bed blocking and the impacts on primary and secondary care? What is the impact on hospital and workforce capacity and waiting lists? What consideration have the Minister and the department given to ensuring that RSV infections could be treated in the community and in homes?
There are other questions to which I would like answers. What steps is the Department of Health and Social Care taking or planning to take to reduce the costs of managing RSV for the NHS, families and the economy, particularly with the overprescription of antibiotics leading to problems with resistance? What is the proper treatment? What discussions have taken place with medical professionals and clinicians to ensure that infants and young children receive the best treatment for full recovery? What learnings from the Covid-19 pandemic is the Department of Health and Social Care considering implementing for other respiratory viruses, such as RSV?
In conclusion, the bottom line is to ask what plans are being made and what funding has been set aside to ensure that protection against respiratory viruses remains a health priority for the upcoming season this autumn and into the winter and that there is better management to deal with them. What new policies are being forged to address RSV infections and to cope with the demands on the NHS? We must not forget that not only the infected child feels the burden of RSV; their families, carers and the health service are also impacted. The seasonal and contagious nature of this infectious disease has raised wider concerns over the possible impact on healthcare capacity, which has been re-emphasised during the Covid-19 pandemic, particularly when the NHS has been overburdened and overstretched.
I look forward to the developing debate and the answers that the Minister can provide. I like to think that this will be the first stage of an opportunity to give this subject a greater level of debate in your Lordships’ House, as it will become much more acute and apparent as we emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic and approach this autumn’s influenza and RSV season.
Baroness Brinton (LD) [V]
My Lords, I congratulate the noble Baroness, Lady Ritchie, on securing this important, and for me very personal, debate. As she outlined, RSV is a common respiratory virus that affects large numbers, mainly of children younger than five, but also some elderly and immunocompromised people. The burden of RSV includes not only ill health for children but the emotional and practical burdens of the affected families and carers and the impact that that has on productivity in the economy, alongside the costs of providing healthcare.
I found the key findings from a very interesting report by RAND published earlier this year, which did a desktop review of recent literature and published data on RSV in the UK. It approximated the annual healthcare costs of having RSV at £80 million. That equates to a mean cost of £97 to the NHS per child under five with RSV. Just over £40 million of that is due to productivity loses, £1.5 million is due
“to out-of-pocket costs incurred by parents/carers, and the remaining nearly £65 million to healthcare costs.”
Estimates suggest that each year 33 children under five die from RSV. While most cases of RSV have very short-term impacts, some children may face long-term respiratory issues later in their life.
Children born prematurely account for nearly 20% of the total cost burden of RSV in the under-fives. My twin granddaughters were born very early. The smaller of the two, Amelia, was 700 grams when she was born and at that point 30% of her lung tissue was dead. She was very unwell for the first few weeks of her life; we were lucky that she survived. Once she was home, within two or three days she picked up an infection, which transpired later to be bronchiolitis. It presented with all the traditional things you hear from Public Health England. Two parents were at home with premature twins and one was suddenly finding breathing very difficult. All the signs you are told to look for were already evident in her and 999 was used.
The Evelina Hospital was absolutely brilliant. My granddaughter remained in and out of hospital for the next year of her life; she was about three months old when this happened. The intensity to which the disease took over was extraordinary, on top of her underlying prematurity problems. She was in PICU—the premature intensive care unit—for some time and then did a step down to the next tier of ward. She then spent months on the lovely Snow Leopard ward—in the old days we would have called it a community hospital, but it is inside the Evelina—where the focus is very much on helping the families to understand the consequences of their child’s problems.
That was where I learned as a grandmother how to put on her ventilator every night, which she needed until she was three. I learned how to put on her heart monitor, because she also had heart problems, and to spot the signs of any infection, including future infections of influenza or anything else. Her skin was very pale and blue a lot of the time. I do not believe she was immunised with the monoclonal antibody, but she certainly had a substantial amount of medication as well. The most useful thing my son and daughter-in-law saw was how it was managed and how they could manage it and help her and themselves in the future.
Now, this bouncy six-year-old girl still has lung damage; you cannot revive dead lung tissue. She still cannot run around the way her twin sister does, but without the care of that extended paediatric team she probably would not be with us today. She is a shark expert, a budding oceanographer and absolutely determined to live her life to the full. The cost of her bronchiolitis was certainly in the upper economic numbers provided by the RAND desktop survey. But the benefit to the family is absolutely inestimable—in the support of the hospital and a large range of healthcare professionals who made it possible for her to go home. There were considerable difficulties, but she did.
She has a baby brother, born a year before Covid. His experience of RSV earlier this year, aged two, was very different. He has absolutely no problems. His experience was a very heavy cold with some croup and minor bronchiolitis. He saw the GP, but no more. His parents were very relaxed, while all their friends whose children were having RSV like that were getting very worried—but that is life when you have had a child who has had quite a severe illness.
RSV is with us and will be with us. As the noble Baroness, Lady Ritchie, said, as Covid starts to lift, we must expect to see more of it as small children mix with each other, as it is extremely infectious. She is right to be concerned about the overprescription of antibiotics. For some it is necessary but it needs to be checked. What is really clear from Public Health England’s guidance is that families can help themselves; they can recognise the symptoms of RSV and do what I did as a mother with my eldest child, who had quite severe croup, which is to make sure that there is lots of humidity in the atmosphere—with the kettle boiling away to make sure that there is steam in the room to help the bronchioles open and ensure that your child is protected.
However, it is not just about parents. Unfortunately, far too many GPs, community nurses and childcare staff do not recognise RSV either. I hope that one of the things we can ask of the Minister is to hear that that will change, and that this illness will be part and parcel of normal paediatric training. For some children, RSV is extremely serious, and the cost to the NHS and the families of those children—let alone to their long-term future—can be severe.
Baroness Wheeler (Lab)
My Lords, I too thank my noble friend Lady Ritchie for her excellent speech and her tenacity and determination in drawing this important issue to the attention of the Committee. Her warning was timely when she last raised her concerns, earlier this year, about the serious impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the epidemiology of other seasonal viruses such as flu and RSV, pushing them out of sync. It is vital that plans are in place to ensure that the NHS has the capacity and resources to cope with a potentially extended, or more than normally prolonged, winter season, in particular of RSV.
As noble Lords have underlined, raising awareness among parents about RSV and how to spot the more severe symptoms is crucial. I pay tribute to the Sanofi Pasteur Together Against RSV campaign and its excellent report from last November highlighting the costs to the NHS of RSV, which were outlined so ably by my noble friend and the noble Baroness, Lady Brinton. The Mumsnet baby health website is also doing a great job in supporting parents and linking them to the Sanofi guidance and briefings. However, the fact that its recent survey showed that 37% of parents feel that they have a lack of understanding on how to manage their child’s respiratory illness from home, while 69% have found online information from various health sources overwhelming or confusing, shows the scale of the work still to be done.
Earlier this year, the Minister assured the House that the NHS has plans in place for raising awareness of RSV among parents and at schools. I look forward to hearing the detail of those plans from him. How will be Government support the Together Against RSV awareness-raising campaign among parents? When will government guidelines be updated to adopt the much more user-friendly and accessible information provided by this campaign and parent support organisations, such as Mumsnet?
The pressures on NHS primary care from RSV in children, in terms of GP visits, hospitalisations and antibiotics prescriptions, as highlighted in the Sanofi report and demonstrated by my noble friend Lady Ritchie, are pretty stark: 450,000 GP visits, 125,000 ear infections, 416,000 prescriptions and 30,000 hospitalisations in an average UK RSV season. Hospitalisations and GP visits are substantially higher among younger children infected with RSV than among those who have flu. Last year, the British Lung Foundation warned parents of young children to be alert for signs of RSV after a sharp rise in cases. It estimated that 1,000 children in England alone had needed hospital care for it in just three months. I thank the noble Baroness, Lady Brinton, for explaining her experience with her own grandchildren and underlining how serious RSV can become, as it did in the case of her granddaughter; I am glad that she is now recovering.
Noble Lords have also underlined the global effect of RSV. Experts behind the recent Lancet study, which showed that RSV kills more than 100,000 children worldwide, believe that more children are likely to be affected in future because lockdown and mask-wearing have meant that they have little or no natural immunity to it. Again, my noble friend Lady Ritchie referred to this reduced immunity point.
In the UK, we know that 92% of hospitalisations are estimated to occur in infants under the age of two. During winter months, one in six of all UK paediatric hospital admissions are bronchiolitis-related, with RSV estimated to be the cause of 60% to 80% of those admissions. As the Sanofi guidance warns:
“It is not only the infected child who feels the burden of RSV: families, carers and the health systems are all impacted. The seasonal and contagious nature of this infectious disease has raised national concerns over the possible impact on healthcare capacity at a time when it is already over-stretched … the UK faces a future with co-circulating RSV, Covid 19 and other respiratory viruses”.
What is the Government’s latest assessment of the impact of these co-circulating viruses on primary and secondary care, and on workforce capacity?
We also know that the very young and elderly are at the greatest risk from RSV. The Government guidance points out:
“Only a minority of adult infections are diagnosed, as RSV is not widely recognised as a cause of respiratory infections in adults.”
It also explains:
“Elderly patients are frequently not investigated microbiologically, as there are fewer viruses present in their respiratory secretions compared with children.”
As a result, adult infections are underestimated. Older adults are at greater risk of serious complications from RSV than younger children because our immune systems weaken as we get older. This can lead to exacerbations of underlying lung and cardiac disease. Can the Minister explain what action is being taken to improve testing, reporting and treatment for older adults?
Obviously, the good news is that RSV infection causes mild respiratory illness for most people and can be reduced or prevented through the standard infection control measures that we all got so used to—and, I hope, permanently wedded to—for Covid, of respiratory hygiene, handwashing and cleaning surfaces. My noble friend stressed the importance of working with the devolved Governments on tackling RSV and increasing awareness of the threat it poses. I hope the Minister can reassure us on this, and on how learning, awareness-raising, prevention and treatment are being shared across the UK.
I understand from an article I read in Nature of 21 December last year that there is also hopeful news in the development of a vaccine for RSV after what researchers have called decades of failure. There are four vaccines in late-stage clinical trials involving stabilising the F protein that the RSV virus uses to fuse with cells and infect them. The structure of the F protein has been identified as the best target for making vaccine-induced antibodies that could prevent the virus entering human cells. I understand that these trials are initially testing older people aged over 60. Does the Minister have any further information on this? Can he tell us what research into and funding of RSV are currently taking place?
This has been a valuable debate, and it is clear that there must be action to stop the rampant spread of RSV post Covid—especially this coming winter—causing poor health, soaring costs for the NHS and particular threats to young children. I look forward to hearing the Government’s future plans for addressing this infectious but not widely known about virus.
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department of Health and Social Care (Lord Kamall) (Con)
My Lords, I thank the noble Baroness, Lady Ritchie, for raising this subject, not only today but a number of times via an OPQ and a number of Written Questions that I have received. The work she has done to raise awareness adds to the overall awareness, but it is really important that this forces the Government to respond and raise even more awareness.
I also thank the noble Baroness, Lady Ritchie, for sharing a very personal story, and the noble Baroness, Lady Brinton, for sharing her family’s story. Sharing these stories sometimes makes you realise that this is not about just words on a page; it really is about how it affects people’s lives on a day-to-day basis, which makes it real for us in seeking to understand it.
Before I answer all the detailed questions, perhaps I should begin by laying out the Government’s current understanding of RSV. The noble Baroness, Lady Ritchie, has already laid out some of the facts. We know that RSV is a common respiratory virus that usually causes mild, cold-like symptoms. It is widespread in humans, partly due to the lack of long-term immunity after infection. We know that children of under five are the most impacted by RSV. They are at risk of paediatric critical care admission, often linked to bronchiolitis. As has been said, every winter the NHS faces pressure from the increased prevalence of seasonal respiratory viruses. This includes Covid-19 and flu, where the rollout of our immunisation programme is critical in protecting individuals and lessening the burden on the system, but it also includes RSV.
In 2021, in response to the scenarios provided by the UK Health Security Agency, there was a cross-health system response to prepare for a more severe RSV epidemic—starting as early as mid-August—due to the almost complete suppression of the virus after measures were put in place to protect the public from Covid-19. As a result of increased disease activity in September 2021, NHS England and Improvement has estimated that the total cost of paediatric hospitalisations due to RSV was 24% higher in 2021-22 compared to 2019-20. The total estimated cost of paediatric hospital care due to RSV, based on the 2022-23 national tariff, was almost £20 million—£19.9 million in 2021-22.
Typically, the RSV season runs from October to February, with a peak in December. However, one recent complication arising is that, due to measures put in place for the Covid lockdowns, in some ways we now see an unseasonal activity of RSV. The NHS released an estimated £22 million centrally to support the paediatric respiratory surge response. This is focused on a number of issues: first, increasing the resilience of the paediatric transport services and, secondly, bringing forward the annual Palivizumab immunisation programme for at-risk infants from October to July. The cohort of at-risk infants eligible for immunisations was expanded and the doses administered increased in number from five to seven, to ensure protection for the duration of the longer-than-usual RSV season. Thirdly, we also allocated additional funding for the voluntary, community and social enterprise sector. This supported families but was also about that important question of raising awareness in our local communities, as noble Lords referred to, and how to manage respiratory infections.
In addition, the system procured 4,000 specialist paediatric pulse oximeters to be distributed to GP practices to support primary care to help assess sick children. Finally, there has been a development of an online platform and digital skills passport. This has provided additional training to the paediatric and adult workforce to raise awareness, among the workforce and wider. It is important to note that the costs I have mentioned do not consider the cost of urgent care, NHS 111 or primary care presentations due to RSV. But it is clear that Covid-19 and RSV did have an impact on the system, for example the increased requirement for PPE which increased the NHS’s day-to-day running costs, making the delivery of frontline services more expensive.
Having laid that out, allow me to try to respond to some of the points made by noble Lords. One question raised was how the department will ensure that infants receive the right treatment without increasing antibiotic resistance. This is really important. One part of my job is that I do international health diplomacy for the DHSC. This is an issue—particularly AMR—that some people call the coming silent pandemic. How do we make sure we reduce our reliance on antibiotics, not only for humans but for animals and agriculture? Also, how do we make sure we do this globally? We may be able to do it in the richer, more developed countries, but there are other countries where it is the culture or they need to use antibiotics, so we need to make sure there are sufficient alternatives available.
We have committed to a vision where AMR is contained and controlled by 2040 and are halfway through delivery of our five-year national action plan. Optimal antibiotic prescribing is a key theme of this work, and we continue to take steps to better support clinicians to make appropriate prescribing choices. In relation to AMR, or to make sure we are aware of this, we are working globally with a number of countries. Also, RSV is a virus, and we should not—by my understanding—be using antibiotics on viruses.
A number of other questions included what considerations the department made on the treatment. The cross-systems exercise took place in June 2021 and I reassure noble Lords that it involved the devolved Administrations. It focused on resilience planning for the potential increased surge. After the exercise, regional NHS England teams finalised annual paediatric critical care winter surge planning to anticipate any increase in RSV cases, including for paediatric intensive care beds. NHS England and Improvement also signed off on regional plans which were submitted to the national team. This built on local exercises and included equipment requirements.
In June 2021, we saw the UK palivizumab prevention programme, with a central alerting system bulletin issued to inform NHS trusts to initiate the programme as soon as possible in line with updated policy of up to seven doses at monthly intervals, rather than the five previously. This was stood down at the end of January 2022, because palivizumab provides about a month of protection against RSV, with the aim of reducing the risk of hospitalisation.
In addition, the UK Health Security Agency and NHS England and NHS Improvement have led on public-facing communications, including press releases on RSV highlighting the likelihood of a rise in infections and encouraging parents to look out for symptoms of severe infection in at-risk children, which included advice on reducing transmission to others. That is in addition to the work we are doing with civil society and with clinicians at both primary and secondary level.
Noble Lords also asked what solutions we are looking to in future, and the noble Baroness, Lady Wheeler, mentioned a treatment that has potential. There is a key antiviral treatment under development by Enanta Pharmaceuticals, but there are also a number of developments in RSV immunisation innovation, and I shall go through a few of them.
First, there is the infant monoclonal antibody, called nirsevimab, by AstraZeneca and Sanofi, and that is progressing. GSK was looking at a maternal vaccine, but I understand that that is currently paused. Pfizer has a maternal vaccine, which is progressing, as is a Pfizer older-adult vaccine. Johnson & Johnson is also looking at an older adult vaccine, as is Moderna. Some vaccines are currently in phase 3 trials, such as those for older adults. The UK Health Security Agency and the JCVI will continue to monitor the development of those trials. The MHRA will ultimately be responsible for the approval of new vaccines, licensing and marking authorisation for new medicine in the UK.
As for our plans, there is currently an out-of-season rise in RSV cases and we have seen RSV swab positivity increasing to almost 4%, with the highest positivity in the under-fives, at 14%. A lessons learned exercise took place in February 2022 to identify and share learning to inform future responses and strengthen the resilience of paediatric services longer term. There is continued surveillance and the data continues to be monitored. Especially given the experience of the unseasonal paediatric programme, it is really important that we are aware of this all year round. Clearly, some lessons have been learned from Covid, such as the whole-system approach to support surge planning and how we rely on established relationships between and within regions, but also via local community organisations. That is, first, to ensure that all clinicians at all levels are aware of RSV and are looking out for it, as well as working with local voluntary and community organisations to raise awareness in parents, families and communities.
We have also been co-operating internationally to model data from other countries that have experienced it, in particular Australia, New Zealand and South Africa. UKHSA and others have been in contact with them to try to understand what lessons could be learned for the UK. NHS England and NHS Improvement also brought forward critical care planning.
I talked about community investments and some of the preparations. It is really important that we are aware at primary and all care levels. The children and young people’s transformation programme procured 4,000 specialist pulse oximeters from the NHS supply chain, which were used to supply primary care—I think I talked about that. In the workforce, Health Education England is working closely with specialised commissioning teams in the operational delivery network to support more awareness. I talked about the online platform. The numbers here may not mean much, but there are 437 resources uploaded, 3,400 users and 62,000 tailored resources. There is also practical guidance developed by the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health and NICE. They have reviewed and updated their guidelines with a focus on improving patient flow and recommendations for early safe discharge.
In addition, there is a children’s safer nurse staffing framework for in-patient care, which includes awareness and more support. I have a number of lines about non-paediatric action, but perhaps it would be better if I wrote to noble Lords after the debate summarising them and picking up any questions that I may not have answered in detail today.
In closing, I thank the noble Baroness, Lady Ritchie, for raising awareness, not only today but more generally—I know that she will, rightly, continue to hold the Government to account—and all noble Lords for their questions. I hope that, if I have not covered them, I shall do so in writing. Be reassured that the health system in England mobilised resources prepared for the surge in RSV cases and hospital admissions. This was essential to protect at-risk groups, including infants and the elderly, but also to work across the four devolved Administrations of the United Kingdom to make sure this action is UK-wide, not just in England. I am grateful to noble Lords for taking part in the debate today.
Neurological Conditions
(2 years, 6 months ago)
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Lord Dubs (Lab)
My Lords, I welcome the opportunity to debate this matter in order to hear the Government’s plans to improve health and care services for people with neurological conditions and to ensure that the sector’s workforce is properly staffed and adequate to meet demand.
It is estimated that one in six people have a neurological condition. Living with such a condition can be a daily battle—a battle made harder by a system that turns away people who are in need of mental health support, where people experience waits of more than year for a few minutes with a specialist and where people do not get the information they need when diagnosed. Of course, in one sense, this is an invisible condition for many people. Some people have obvious neurological conditions but some do not and, because it is invisible, they do not get the care and support they would otherwise attract.
I thank some of the people with neurological conditions who have been helpful and the organisations that represent them, including the MS Society, the Neurological Alliance, the MS Trust, Overcoming MS, MS National Therapy Centres and the Migraine Trust, which provided briefings to inform my remarks today. Of course, I also thank the client engagement team from Parliament, which carried out a survey.
I should mention in passing that, yesterday, I went to a Carers Week event in the Attlee Room in Portcullis House. A lot of caring organisations—not necessarily those connected with neurology—were there to explain what they are about. It was a very impressive occasion, particularly in terms of the voluntary carers and the work they do. It left me quite emotionally drained when I heard how they cope and how people have spent years caring without any time off.
I should declare an interest. My son has MS, a condition that affects 130,000 people in the UK. It can be painful and exhausting, and can cause problems with how people walk, move, see, think and feel. It can gets worse over time. However, it can be managed—at least partly—through timely treatment, access to rehabilitation services, lifestyle changes and specialist support.
Yesterday, the Neurological Alliance published its report, Together for the 1 in 6. Unfortunately, I was unable to be there because I was in a Select Committee but I have managed to read the report quickly. It is based on a survey of some 8,500 people affected by neurological conditions across the UK. The data found that one in five adults waited
“more than 12 months between first seeing a GP and seeing a neurologist.”
More than half of people with MS had experienced long delays; I will not go through all the statistics.
In the year to March 2022, the number of people waiting for a neurology appointment on the NHS rose from 120,000 to 180,000, according to the latest NHS waiting times data. Some 37% of people are waiting more than 18 weeks for a neurology appointment. The Migraine Trust is calling for simple pathways for those who need to be referred to a neurology or specialist migraine clinic with reduced waiting times. We are talking about a situation where there are long waiting times and difficulties in getting access to mental health support. Most of the surveys support the finding that there is a lack of support; people therefore feel that the system has failed them.
Let me turn to treatments. The Neurological Alliance survey showed that 35% of adults with MS who require drug treatments in hospital experienced delays in accessing these essential treatments in the past year, including disease-modifying therapies. DMTs are a vital form of MS care as they can slow the progression of MS for some patients. DMTs need to be started as early as possible after diagnosis, which of course means that early diagnosis is needed, and prolonged delays between doses can be harmful. Of course, there is a difference between those people who have progressive MS and those who have relapsing-remitting MS. There are more therapies available for relapsing-remitting MS than there are for progressive MS. This is also made more acute because relapsing-remitting MS sometimes converts into progressive MS.
There are very few treatment options for people with progressive MS. There is a new one called siponimod. Although this should be good news, NHS data shows that, nearly a year after its approval by NICE, just 1.5% of those eligible have been able to try it. The problem is that there are long waiting times for some new therapies. It is vital that people with neurological conditions have access to symptom management treatments and evidence-based lifestyle changes. The MS Society found that only 10% of people with MS were able to access any form of symptom management treatments.
Some people living with MS use cannabis to alleviate their symptoms. Although there is a product called Sativex, very few—I think only 17.5%—of those for whom it would be helpful have access to it. Some people say that cannabis does not help, but my view is that where a patient feels that cannabis is helpful it is by definition helpful. It is no good a doctor saying there is no evidence it is helpful; if the patient feels it is helpful then it clearly helps.
I also thank the noble Lord, Lord Blencathra, who regrets that he is not able to be here this afternoon, for sharing his experience accessing fampridine, which has been helpful for mobility. However, again, NICE has decided to no longer prescribe this drug to selected new patients.
Let me talk briefly about the workforce in neuroscience. This is what I find quite shocking. According to the Association of British Neurologists, the UK ranks 44 out of 45 European nations for the number of neurologists for each person with a neurological condition. Adjusted for the population, France and Germany have over seven neurologists for every two that the UK has. These are absolutely unacceptable figures, which mean that the caseload for neurologists in this country is much too high and they cannot give each patient the treatment they need.
Let me turn very briefly to MS specialist nurses. Neurological nurses in the more general sense, but specifically specialist MS nurses, can provide excellent help. They provide a holistic approach. I believe that if the Minister was to do an assessment he would find that having MS nurses reduces the pressure on GPs and might even reduce hospital admissions. It could be financially helpful as well as beneficial to the patients. Some studies should be carried out to see whether this hypothesis can be borne out in fact. Many people with MS do not have access to MS nurses. The MS Society’s survey found that 63% of professionals were finding it extremely, or very, challenging to provide a good service to their patients.
Most of the problems I have discussed will not be overcome without addressing the chronic workforce shortages in neuroscience, whether neurologists, MS nurses or other specialists who can provide support. I would welcome the Minister’s remarks on what the Government are doing to attract, recruit and retain the neuroscience and other allied health professionals needed to deliver holistic care on a sustainable basis. The key is holistic care; there are piecemeal approaches, but holistic care is the most efficient and effective way of providing support. I believe that specialist MS nurses are a profession who can possibly co-ordinate support in a way that can lessen the burden on others. The NHS must take forward recommendations from NHS England’s Getting It Right First Time adult neurology report and must urgently explore opportunities to free up clinicians’ time by ensuring all MS teams have a sufficient number of admin staff to carry out non-clinical duties. Again, that would reduce the burden on doctors and specialist nurses.
Regarding the way forward and positive action, I would be extremely grateful if the Minister would meet MS and neurological charities, including the MS Society and the Neurological Alliance, to discuss establishing what I would call a “neuro-taskforce” to bring together relevant departments, health and social care bodies, professional bodies, people affected by neurological conditions and the voluntary sector from all four nations of the UK. That should cover all areas of health and care, including rehabilitation, mental health, and access to treatments. I would like the Minister to see this as a challenge. It would be a good way forward. It is a way to improve the conditions of people with neurological conditions. It is long overdue, and I hope the Minister will accept this proposal.
Baroness Fraser of Craigmaddie (Con)
I thank the noble Lord, Lord Dubs, for securing this important debate. It is, unfortunately, late on a Thursday afternoon, but as he said, it coincides with the publication of the joint patient experience survey, undertaken for the first time by all four Neurological Alliances from across the UK. I declare lots of interests: I am a trustee of the Neurological Alliance of Scotland, I am chief executive of Cerebral Palsy Scotland and I chair the Scottish Government’s National Advisory Committee for Neurological Conditions.
As part of that, this debate and survey took me back to work undertaken in 2018 with the Scottish burden of disease study, which highlighted not only the invisibility of neurological conditions but, to use the not very good language of the study, the “burden” of living with a long-term, complex condition, and the burden that already places on health and care services. This population live for a long time and are already using health and care services, but are invisible. Improvements are therefore difficult to make because of that invisibility. The conclusions and recommendations of the Neurological Alliance survey illustrate how services are patchy and fragmented, but they give us a barometer for where to concentrate action. I have three areas for action that I would like to highlight.
First, we have to better understand prevalence. Data on numbers of all neurological conditions remains woeful. The data we do have is mostly estimates. We seriously underestimate prevalence due to the inaccurate and inconsistent way that neurological conditions are recorded across all healthcare settings. We have to look at the system of coding: how do we make it simpler?
At Cerebral Palsy Scotland, we have campaigned for the development of a national cerebral palsy register, building on existing work from Queen’s University Belfast, supported by the Northern Ireland Government, and work undertaken by the Welsh Government. Working on the principle that if you are not counted you do not count, part of ensuring better services is to prioritise reliable data in order to plan not only for future services but for future workforce needs.
Secondly, we have to deliver seamless care between the different parts of the system and to take a more holistic view of the workforce. It is important to look beyond neurologists. People with neurological conditions come into the NHS through numerous routes. That is part of the problem. The role of the consultant neurologist is to exclude conditions and to provide a diagnosis. It is important that this should be achieved as quickly and as efficiently as possible. However, since people with neurological conditions can live for many years post a diagnosis, the important question is: who will deliver their care? It will not be the neurologist.
As the noble Lord, Lord Dubs, outlined, clinical nurse specialists are key to managing care for some conditions, MS being one of them, but sadly too many other conditions do not have clinical nurse specialists and are therefore left out. We need to be more imaginative about roles and responsibilities in multidisciplinary teams and in planning for future workforce needs, and perhaps to work more collaboratively with other areas, such as MSK and stroke services.
The majority of health and care services required by this population are provided by primary and community care services and by AHPs. People with cerebral palsy, for example, rely on regular access to physiotherapy to prevent further deterioration and to stay well, but access to neuro physios and other rehabilitation services is completely inadequate and comes nowhere near the standards and guidelines set by NICE for adults with CP. It is the same for many other neurological conditions.
The Question refers to services covering the whole of health and care. As the noble Lord, Lord Dubs, also mentioned, this is Carers Week. Carers are an integral part of this workforce too. But I believe that anybody—health, care or social workers—who has any input into delivering care for someone with a varied and complex condition must have access to information and training about that condition. Far too often, it is left to the third sector to pick it up in a piecemeal and underfunded way that cannot hope to reach all those in need.
Thirdly, support for mental health needs to be provided at diagnosis. It has to be an integral part of condition management for children and adults. Too many people, children in particular, report that their mental health needs are not being met at all. If raised with professionals, their concerns are dismissed as being just a part of their condition that they have to live with. There are, in theory, a range of mental health services that can be accessed by people with neurological conditions but, again, there are huge variations in equity of access, both geographically but also for the different conditions.
To address the issues highlighted in the Neurological Alliance’s survey, we require leadership and vision. Will the Minister therefore commit not only to taking up the challenge of the noble Lord, Lord Dubs, but to developing an overall strategy to support people with neurological conditions? In Scotland, we already have the framework for action for neurological care and support, which I was involved in creating. The ambition must be that health and care services support people with neurological conditions to live well on their own terms, with access to the right person at the right time and in the right place. This is essential. I look forward to supporting the Government in achieving this ambition.
Lord Monks (Lab)
My Lords, I thank the noble Lord, Lord Dubs, not just for initiating this debate but for his work over many years in championing the fight that needs to go on all the time against MS and related neurological problems. I also thank the MS Society, which produced some very useful briefing material for this debate.
There is no need today to labour the destructive nature of these diseases, MS in particular. Like others in this debate, I come from the front line in the battle against MS. My son, for whom my wife and I care, is in the National Hospital for Neurology and Neurosurgery today, with complications to his advanced secondary progressive MS. He and we have had 20 years of it—20 years of overworked consultants and stressed MS nurses, and 20 years of feeling like poor relations to more fashionable illnesses.
The basic problem, in our view, is the shortage of skilled staff. I must say that, despite the shortages that exist, we have had excellent treatment at King’s College Hospital under the care of Dr Silber. But the pressures are obvious. As soon as you enter the clinic’s waiting room, large numbers of patients are milling around awaiting a consultation. Sometimes it resembles a railway station in the rush hour; the atmosphere is like that, rather than the calm and friendly system that you like to see when you go into a hospital.
How come, as the noble Lord, Lord Dubs, said, the UK ranks as 44th out of 45—I did not even know there were 45 European nations but apparently there are—in the number of neurologists if it is adjusted on a per capita basis? Do the Minister and the Government recognise these figures, which are so bad in comparison with France and Germany, which were mentioned earlier?
The Government often boast that the UK is a world leader in this and that. Occasionally, they might even be right. On MS, however, we are shameful laggards and I wonder whether the Minister would accept what I am saying with that particular charge? Is MS treatment not a prime candidate for the levelling-up agenda? I mean levelling up internationally, of course, against the best in class in Europe, rather than being right at the bottom of the league, but also levelling up nationally among the four nations. We have sharp regional imbalances; some parts of the country are better off than others at tackling MS by providing access to disease-modifying drugs and treatments.
Thankfully, there are exciting new drugs emerging to combat secondary progressive MS but, as has been said, their rollout is slow and they are subject to a postcode lottery. The MS Society’s survey found Northern Ireland to have the best access, while Wales and some of the English regions have the worst. The society is also worried about the establishment of integrated care systems and that these might widen the differences in MS treatment in particular, as different priorities are chosen within different systems. I wonder whether the Government share these worries. If so, how can we guard against even more inequality developing as far as the treatment of MS is concerned?
I ask the Minister: is it not time to launch a major levelling-up exercise for the neurological illnesses, with our place in that European league table firmly in our minds? Next, what can be done to address the urgent shortages in the workforce of people with neurological skills who can work together and provide the kind of holistic treatment that others have referred to? Finally, I agree very much with my noble friend Lord Dubs, and with what has just been said, about the need for a neuro task force that brings together all the relevant bodies in all four nations of the UK to address the challenges that we face on the MS front. What is the Government’s view on this proposal?
Baroness Thomas of Winchester (LD) [V]
My Lords, I too thank the noble Lord, Lord Dubs, for securing this debate, and the Neurological Alliance for undertaking such a large patient survey of people living with a neurological condition in the UK. Its findings include the views of people like me who are living with a muscle-wasting or neuromuscular condition, in my case Pompe Disease.
Muscular Dystrophy UK recently published Shining a Light, a report which demonstrated that people living with muscle-wasting conditions have struggled to access critical services such as specialist muscle clinical appointments, specialist respiratory care and specialist neuromuscular physiotherapy, especially because of the pandemic and shielding. This lack of provision has had a negative impact on their overall physical and mental well-being.
As a result, an ever-increasing backlog of patients is waiting for appointments and, in many cases, the delay in access to specialist services has resulted in a more acute progression of a person’s condition. This has, in turn, led to the need for additional treatments and longer stays in hospital, thus putting even more pressure on an already strained service. This is evident as Muscular Dystrophy UK’s findings indicated that delayed access to muscle clinics, physiotherapy and hydrotherapy would result in irreversible muscle weakness and muscle loss.
All people living with muscle-wasting conditions should be able to access fully equipped multidisciplinary teams, diagnostics and clinical services when they need them, no matter where they live in the UK. Staffing is a crucial aspect of improving neuromuscular care, and I support the need for the Government to develop a strategy to attract, recruit and retain the neuroscience workforce, specifically the front-line specialist nurses and other clinicians needed to deliver holistic care on a sustainable basis. I believe, as others have said, that establishing a neuro task force will go some way to solving this increasingly complex problem affecting this patient community.
Baroness Murphy (CB)
My Lords, I am so pleased that the noble Lord, Lord Dubs, raised this issue. One is always humbled in speaking in a debate where so many participants either can bear witness to the personal impact of a life-changing disorder or have been close enough to have supported people throughout.
I share with the noble Baroness, Lady Fraser, the notion that we want not only neurologists. She referred to what I call the “hit-and-run brigade”: you go, you see them, you are diagnosed and you are off. That is it; you might get a follow-up appointment if you are lucky. I know because I have been there: I have been one of those people. I know how difficult and frustrating it is to provide a service. I trained for two years at what was then called the National Hospital for Nervous Diseases in Queen Square and its outpost, a delightful hospital at Maida Vale. It was one of the most fulfilling expenses of my life. It was very lovely. They used to bring us junior doctors a little silver teapot every afternoon for afternoon tea. Those were the days, when the NHS was a little different if you were at a posh hospital, which that was. In the end, I retreated to my first love, psychiatry, but I have obviously seen a lot of neurological conditions since then.
The problem is that we are down to one neurologist per 170,000. France has one per 50,000. Italy has one per 5,000 head of population. They are very well-trained neurologists, who are almost all dually trained in psychiatry. That makes a phenomenal difference to access and to the importance of the specialty in the general bargaining power.
Some very welcome changes have happened. National clinical directors are to be appointed in neurology, neurosurgery and spinal surgery. They will be crucial, because the commissioning of these neuroscience services will be devolved rather than done centrally. Those appointments will be utterly crucial for making an impact. Noble Lords might ask what difference they will make, but I remind them about getting the right person in the right place. When I was at Queen Square, stroke disease was not a neurological condition, even though it is the commonest neurological condition there is. It took a neurologist, Charles Warlow, in Edinburgh and his colleagues saying, “No, important physicians and neurologists should be interested in this as a core business.” In part, we need that focus again around these very disabling, chronic disorders.
I have a special interest in one range of disorders: that spectrum that goes from Parkinson’s disease through Lewy body dementia through Alzheimer’s disease. They are similar, but if you treat one with the wrong medication you get adverse reactions. They are highly disturbing and very disabling conditions. It is a very sad way to end your life with any of these conditions when they become very serious. Because we do not have access to neurology or specialist neuropsychiatrists, we have a situation where access to diagnosis and to the right kind of support and care just does not happen. People fight for months to try to get a diagnosis; it goes on for years. People get one diagnosis after another, and shoved from pillar to post. Sometimes it is only five to 10 years later that people actually get the right diagnosis.
It is crucial that we get some kind of agreement about who should care for these people and how we should get them channelled. The number is increasing as the population ages; naturally, the prevalence is rising in the older population. I give major support to the notion that we should have a neurological task force to look at the increasing demands of these serious and disabling disorders.
Baroness Brinton (LD) [V]
My Lords, I, too, thank the noble Lord, Lord Dubs, for securing this important debate. I also thank the Neurological Alliance, the Chartered Society of Physiotherapy, the Royal College of Occupational Therapists, Parkinson’s UK, the MS Society and Merck for their helpful briefings. I declare my interest as a vice-president of the Local Government Association.
The noble Lord, Lord Monks, spoke movingly of his son’s personal experience: that, despite the excellent treatment, the service feels in constant crisis, not least because of staff shortages—not just clinicians. As the noble Baroness, Lady Fraser, outlined, the Neurological Alliance surveyed more than 8,500 people with neurological conditions, including Parkinson’s, about their experiences. It found a shortage of neurology specialists, as outlined by other noble Lords. It is shocking that the UK was ranked 44 out of 45 European countries for the number of neurologists. The Royal College of Physicians found that 48% of consultant geriatricians in England are set to retire within the next 10 years.
Mental health services, which we have debated quite a lot in your Lordships’ House recently, are an absolutely integral aspect of care for people with neurological conditions, but a Written Answer to a Parliamentary Question two years ago revealed that the Government were on course to miss the recruitment target for expanding the mental health workforce by 50%. I do not think the last two years have helped that.
Delays to treatment and care can change your life for ever. More than half of adults, children and young people living with a neurological condition experienced delays to routine appointments with specialists last year. The Neurological Alliance is calling on the UK Governments to establish a neurology task force to get to the bottom of these problems and create real change.
Along with the noble Baroness, Lady Murphy, I am particularly interested in wider healthcare support, including rehabilitation, and was delighted to receive the briefings from physiotherapists and occupational therapists because, with my own long-term condition, I am very reliant on their expertise. The Royal College of Occupational Therapists surveyed staff working in rehab multidisciplinary teams, including physios, speech and language therapists, nurse specialists, dieticians and many more. Its survey found that 82% had seen an increase in demand for rehab support in the past six months. It is vital to those with chronic and deteriorating long-term conditions to have access to rehabilitation, so the ability for patients to access rehab is a lifeline, frankly. If it is not there, deterioration can speed up.
This is an area that cannot continue to work in constant crisis. One of the main problems in the short staffing in the MDTs is the load on clinicians. This is not just the allied healthcare professionals but those invisible administrators, who have a key role in smoothing access to the full range of services for patients. That is why the alliance is seeking a fully funded national two-year rehab strategy to ensure that people who have seen significant deterioration in their condition have the therapeutic support they need.
Too often, one key part of public services is involved too late. It is one that society—particularly the health sector, I am afraid—just does not plan for. I am referring to housing. Research over many years by Habinteg, a housing association that campaigns for the raising of accessibility standards in new homes, shows that for a small amount extra to pay at the time of a new build or major renovation, adaptations for patients with mobility problems can be overcome cheaply and easily. One thing that many patients with neurological conditions say is that the adaptions to their home are difficult and expensive.
Finally, one expert is too often overlooked. The expert patient programme is for people with long-term conditions, where patients take a six-week course and are trained and supported, often by tutors who have a long-term condition themselves. The course aims to give patients the confidence to self-manage their health and be active participants in the care of their condition. The course looks at general topics, including healthy eating, dealing with pain, relaxation techniques and coping with negative feelings, along with very specific advice on their condition. I know of it from the rheumatology sector, but I know friends who are expert patients in the MS community. Multidisciplinary teams welcome their expert patients. A patient’s understanding of when to seek help means more timely interventions and, often, improved outcomes. It is not just beneficial for the patients, it is cost-effective.
Is there specific support to spread the expert patient programmes to more neurological conditions? Will the Minister respond to the Neurological Alliance’s recommendation of a neurology task force? When do the Government plan to publish a workforce strategy for the neurology workforce? As we discussed a lot in debate on the then Health and Care Bill, this is one element of wider workforce planning that really needs to happen now and be visible. Therefore, how will the Government ensure that any such strategy delivers a sufficient number of health professionals to fill the gaps in staffing for neurological conditions?
Baroness Wheeler (Lab)
I am very pleased that my noble friend Lord Dubs secured this important debate and grateful for his excellent speech. We know that he values every opportunity to underline the urgent need to improve services in social care for all people with neurological conditions. We have often spoken about MS, the impact the disease is having on his son and the experience of his whole family in caring for and supporting him. We also heard from my noble friend Lord Monks of his experience of the care of his son. He also spoke very movingly today.
One in three people with MS does not get the social care or rehabilitation they need to cope with the disease and be able to lead as independent a life as possible. The experience of both my noble friends over many years, sadly, reflects that. The noble Baroness, Lady Thomas, also made a compelling plea for muscle-wasting and other neurological conditions to be better and more effectively managed through timely treatment and access to rehabilitation services and specialist support, with regular access to specialist teams.
I also pay tribute to the work of the 80 charities within the Neurological Alliance. I hope yesterday’s Westminster Hall launch of its excellent survey—which I was, sadly, unable to attend—went well and received the attention and support it deserves. Noble Lords’ contributions have drawn heavily on the survey results in respect of a range of neurological conditions, including MS, dementia, migraine and Parkinson’s. My noble friend Lady Gale is always a great advocate of the work of Parkinson’s UK, but was, sadly, unable to be here today.
My special focus is on stroke, as a carer for a disabled adult stroke recoverer. Stroke strikes every five minutes in the UK and 100,000 people have strokes each year. It is a leading cause of death and adult disability in the UK, with more than two-thirds of people who have had a stroke leaving hospital with a disability. To underline the neuro survey key data highlighted by noble Lords, the one in six people in the UK who have a neurological condition have the lowest health-related quality of life of any long-term condition. One in five adults waited more than 12 months between seeing a GP and then a neurologist, and 55% experienced referral delays in routine neurologist appointments—all of which needs to change, as we have heard. The Chartered Society of Physiotherapy estimates that only 40% of people receive essential neurorehabilitation.
Workforce shortages are the biggest reason behind delays, and I look forward to the Minister explaining the Government’s specific plans to address the chronic neurological staff shortages across all key conditions. How do they account for the UK having only two neurologists for each seven that France and Germany have, and how is this situation being addressed? Does this not reinforce the urgent need for the long-term workforce plan to tackle these and other acute staff shortages, as we have been calling for? In Parliament yesterday, almost as an aside, the Secretary of State referred to work being undertaken “on a 15-year strategy”. That is the first time we have heard mention of any timeframe, so perhaps the Minister could tell us more about who is leading the strategy’s development and when it is expected to be published.
Specifically on MS, last year, NHS England’s Getting it Right First Time adult neurology report recommended that all MS teams have enough administrative staff to carry out non-clinical duties and free up clinicians’ time to treat patients. Can the Minister update the Committee on what progress has been made?
The Government’s acceptance of the alliance’s call for a UK-wide neurological task force of key stakeholders from Governments, departments, professional bodies and the voluntary sector must be a key factor in identifying how treatment, rehabilitation and social care support can be provided and improved, running alongside the strategy, resources, front-line specialist workforce and other clinicians that are vitally needed where shortages are most acute. I hope that the Minister will recognise this as a key way forward.
I have a few further points. The My Neuro Survey rightly makes much of the impact on unpaid carers and families of the lack of support available for the people they care for; a number of speakers mentioned this. In this national Carers Week, it is important that carers feature strongly in today’s debate. According to the Alzheimer’s Society, unpaid carers supporting someone with dementia save the economy £11 billion every year. On Tuesday, the Minister promised that the Government want to help carers to make sure that they are looked after while they provide a service for their loved ones. Can he say what specific immediate steps are being taken to do this?
Specifically on social care, NHS data shows that only 14% of the total social care budget is spent on people living with neurological conditions. Living well with neurological disease means getting the right home support and equipment, regular occupational and physio therapy, and eating, washing, dressing and other essential social care help. But as the latest social care directors’ ADASS survey showed, more than 500,000 people in England are waiting for a social care assessment, for care to begin or for a review of their care. Can the Minister explain how this immediate situation is to be addressed, given that the existing resources pledged for social care at best just shore up existing wholly inadequate services?
Finally, what research is being undertaken by the Government into the impact of long Covid on neurological conditions, following the two studies by Mater Hospital in Dublin that found “significant evidence” of it leading to new neurological conditions? Have the Government any further information on or assessment of this? How is this troubling link being monitored? I look forward to the Minister’s response on all these issues.
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department of Health and Social Care (Lord Kamall) (Con)
My Lords, I thank all noble Lords who took part in this debate, especially the noble Lord, Lord Dubs, for raising this issue. I also thank him and the noble Lord, Lord Monks, for sharing their personal experiences. As the noble Baroness, Lady Wheeler, rightly said, hearing people’s personal experiences, rather than simply reading words on a page, really does bring it home. I also thank the noble Baroness, Lady Murphy, for sharing her experience from the other side, as it were; that was a very valuable contribution for us all.
I should start by talking about the overall plan. I will then focus on some of the conditions discussed today. We have to acknowledge that the pandemic affected health and care services, which is why we must have a recovery service. The priority of that recovery is to address the pressures caused by the pandemic. Noble Lords will be aware of the Delivery Plan for Tackling the COVID-19 Backlog of Elective Care, published in February 2022, which sets out a long-term plan to look at bringing that down. It also looks at creating extra capacity, including through partnerships with the independent sector and in the NHS, to undertake more complex work, such as neurosurgery, with improvements for the most clinically urgent patients.
To support the ambitions in the delivery plan, the department has committed more than £8 billion over the next three years, from 2022 to 2025. This investment is in addition to the £2 billion elective recovery fund and the £700 million targeted investment fund already made available to the health and care system to push the recovery forward.
We know that there can be significant variation in the services provided for people with neurological conditions. I can confirm that NHS England is currently recruiting for a national clinical director for neurology to tackle this variation and provide national leadership and specialist clinical advice. This will complement existing work to improve neurology services—particularly the work of the neuroscience transformation programme, which will support services to deliver the right service at the right time for neurology patients closer to home. The noble Baroness, Lady Brinton, and others made this point.
NHS England also continues to work closely with the National Neurosciences Advisory Group to ensure continued service improvement and support neurosurgery networks with transformation and implementing changes that could have the highest impact. The National Neurosciences Advisory Group has developed a series of best practice optimal pathways for neurosurgery and neurology. They are being used to inform the proposed changes to the neurology service model, which will in turn be used to revise the service specification for neurology. This work is anticipated to be completed during this financial year.
We also know we cannot increase health service capacity and access to treatment without expanding our workforce capacity. As was made clear in many debates during the passage of the Health and Care Act, the Government commissioned Health Education England to come up with a strategy. The Act mandates the Government to publish a workforce strategy and plan every five years, on not only a national level but a bottom-up local level. We want to avoid Soviet Union-style planning which does not understand local communities, local trusts and areas. Bottom-up planning will happen at primary and secondary care level, trust level and ICS level. I will make some more comments about that.
We have made some progress so far with nearly 29,000 more hospital and community health service staff in March 2022 compared to the previous year, which includes nearly 11,000 more nurses and 4,300 more doctors. Working with the NHS, we will continue to identify and address these gaps across key types of staff. To support long-term planning, as I said, we have commissioned Health Education England.
On the social care workforce specifically, we know that many people living with neurological conditions rely on support from care workers. We recognise the challenges the sector faces in recruiting and retaining staff. Noble Lords will be aware that we launched the national register. It was voluntary at first, as some concerns were raised in the initial consultation about people not wanting to register. We want to build that confidence so we can understand the existing landscape and the myriad qualifications. How can we ensure we rationalise it so that it is a more professional service which people will feel attracted to, and what issues will we have to address so that we recruit more? To support local authorities and providers to address workforce pressures, there is the health and care visa and shortage occupation list, alongside work with DWP. We hope to boost recruitment in these areas.
Let me go into some more specific issues. It might be handy for me to discuss how the NHS generally, and the department, look at neurological conditions. When I was being briefed on this, I asked if I could be sent a list of all the neurological conditions. I now realise that was a naive question; apparently there are over 600 types. That shows that awareness is one of the big issues and barriers. If you want change, you have to realise what the issue is. If you think of how we as a society have developed, things that we now consider neurological conditions are things where, in the old days, people were told to pull themselves together. There were quite offensive names for some conditions that people had. We are now far more aware of them, which is really important. They can be broadly categorised into sudden onset conditions, intermittent and unpredictable conditions, progressive conditions and stable neurological conditions.
The noble Lord, Lord Dubs, and the noble Baroness, Lady Wheeler, rightly raised the issue of unpaid carers. During the debate there was consensus on the work that unpaid carers do, often with little reward, and what support should be available. As a result of the pressure rightfully put by noble Lords on the Government, the department and NHS have been interacting with Carers UK. I also put on record our thanks to the noble Baroness, Lady Pitkeathley, for all her work in this area and for pushing the Government to make sure that we first understand what support is needed. Sometimes it can be as simple as respite; at other times, far more support is needed. It is also about awareness and training, and we have the reform funding programme. We want to make sure that we not only recruit more motivated carers, giving them a proper career path, but do not forget the unpaid carers—recognising who is an unpaid carer and what support can be available, working from national government level and at local level.
The noble Lord, Lord Dubs, and my noble friend Lady Fraser also raised the issue of mental health. In addition to managing neurological conditions, we recognise that patients quite often do not get enough mental health support. We are committed to expanding mental health services. We also have the long-term physical health pathway. We are integrating improving access to psychological therapies—IAPT services—and have launched a public call for evidence in developing a new cross-government 10-year plan for mental health. I hope I can encourage all noble Lords to highlight that.
The noble Lords, Lord Dubs and Lord Monks, rightly raised the issue of multiple sclerosis and spoke about their own experiences of it. NICE has updated its guidance on management, diagnosis, treatment, care and support of people with MS. Following diagnosis, and with a management strategy in place, we aim for most people with MS to be cared for through routine access to primary and secondary care. NHS England has commissioned the specialised elements of MS care through the 25 specialised neurological treatment centres across England. The various parts of the NHS systems have also started to implement the guidance set out in the progressive neurological conditions RightCare toolkit, which includes a specific section on MS and was developed in collaboration with key stakeholders, such as the MS Trust and the MS Society. The RightCare toolkit provides the opportunity to assess and benchmark current systems to find out how we can improve. But it also has to be a continuous learning system, not just one set of guidelines that are followed for ages until someone tells you they are out of date.
Another important aspect of this is the research, as my noble friend Lady Fraser rightly raised. The Department of Health and Social Care funds research into neurological conditions through the National Institute for Health and Care Research. In 2019-20 the NIHR spent about £54 million on research through the Medical Research Council and is open to more bids, but it does not assign for particular conditions. Quite often, why NIHR does not assign a pot for certain conditions comes up in debates. It is open to research bids in all areas, including neurological conditions and so far it has given £54 million, but it welcomes more applications. Other areas are really important as well, such as motor neurone disease and others. That is why we urge the research community to come forward.
We also want to make sure that there is more awareness throughout the workforce, as noble Lords rightly said. As a speciality, neurology is popular and generally sees a 100% fill rate for training places. There has been an expansion in neurology posts across England and postgraduate trainees will start in August 2022. The National School of Healthcare Science is recruiting more trainee scientists to its three-year, work-based training programme, which leads to a master’s degree in neurosensory sciences. But the point is taken that it is not only these specialists we need; we also need to make sure that staff across the system are aware of these conditions and how we deal with them.
The noble Lord, Lord Dubs, raised the issue of cannabis. In November 2018 the UK Government legalised cannabis for medical use but imposed strict criteria. Specialist doctors are allowed to prescribe medicinal cannabis but there are still concerns about this not being enough people. I take the point that the noble Lord, Lord Dubs, made: if the patients feel that it benefits them, then it benefits them. That is important. I can offer to write to the noble Lord, Lord Dubs, or to have a further discussion.
We have seen increases in the number of full-time doctors working in this specialty, in neurology, including consultants, but as I have said, it is important that they are not just specialists.
Turning to strategies, there are two at the moment, one for dementia and the other for acquired brain injury. Once again, I am open to suggestions and happy to listen if people want to raise issues about this.
I should just touch on the neurosciences transformation programme. The NSTP itself came up with a new definition for specialised neurology and a model for new neurology services. The clinical pathways and the optimal pathways have been developed and indicators are being designed in partnership with stakeholders to support services delivering the right service at the right time for all neurology patients and, critically, closer to home or in the home. What we hope to see is that this approach will be built in as part of the integrated pathways, through the ICSs being set up.
On some questions that I am unable to give specific answers to—for example, on housing and a number of other issues—I offer to write to noble Lords. I think the noble Lord, Lord Dubs, asked whether I am prepared to have a meeting. Usually I say yes—I am sure noble Lords recognise that I met frequently during the passage of the Health and Care Act—but I just want to make sure I am the relevant Minister. If the relevant Minister is not available, I am very happy to meet, or to meet with the relevant Minister. I would really like to learn more and, either on my own or in partnership with the relevant Minister, to meet with the noble Lord, Lord Dubs—
Lord Kamall (Con)
The task force, yes—I thank the noble Lord for the prompt.
That is all I will say for now. I apologise if I have not covered all the questions; I will endeavour to write. I will diligently read Hansard and offer to write to noble Lords on those questions I have not answered. I thank the noble Lord, Lord Dubs, for raising this issue and all noble Lords for taking part in the debate and for their questions. It means I have to go back to the department and not only learn more myself but make sure we have some meaningful answers to the questions that noble Lords asked.
House of Lords
Message from the Queen
The Lord Chamberlain (Lord Parker of Minsmere)
My Lords, I have the honour to present to your Lordships a message from Her Majesty the Queen, signed by her own hand. The message is as follows:
“I have received with great satisfaction the dutiful and loyal expression of your thanks for the speech with which His Royal Highness the Prince of Wales opened the present Session of Parliament on my behalf.”
Probation and Court Services: Workload
(2 years, 6 months ago)
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Baroness Blower
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what recent estimate they have made of the workload levels in (1) the Probation Services, and (2) the Children and Family Court Advisory and Support Services.
The Advocate-General for Scotland (Lord Stewart of Dirleton) (Con)
My Lords, as of March 2022, 96% of probation officers and National Probation Service officers held fewer than 50 cases, with an average case load of 34. The average case load for the 4% who hold more than 50 cases is 59. The number of open active children’s cases within Cafcass in May 2022 was 34,834. This has reduced from 38,178 in April 2021 but still represents an increase of 15.1% on pre-pandemic levels.
Baroness Blower (Lab)
I will be very interested to discuss those figures with the Minister as I do not entirely recognise them. However, recent MoJ figures show that some regions, including London, are understaffed by hundreds of permanent posts, costing the taxpayer £23 million in agency cover fees. Record high numbers are leaving the probation service due to poor pay and excessive workloads, often of 110% of their requirement. Does the Minister accept that poor pay for probation staff is a false economy?
Lord Stewart of Dirleton (Con)
My Lords, the position in relation to the National Probation Service is that a new model of working is being introduced which necessarily is causing some strain in the service. However, the Government consider that this new approach is necessary and will repay the short-term hurt which its introduction is causing. The Government and the National Probation Service are committed to maintaining levels of staff in this exceptionally important field.
Lord Thomas of Gresford (LD)
Cafcass is concerned with representing the interests of children in court. In the report assessing the risk of harm to children and parents in private law children’s cases, published by the Ministry of Justice in June 2020, the expert panel recommended that the MoJ should commission
“an independent, systematic, retrospective research study on the implementation”
of the current law and practice
“in cases where allegations of domestic abuse, child sexual abuse or other serious offences are raised.”
Has that study been commissioned and, if so, what point has it reached?
Lord Stewart of Dirleton (Con)
My Lords, I undertake to write to the noble Lord in relation to that study. I do not have information to hand on its progress but if I may pray the noble Lord’s patience, I will communicate with him in due course.
Lord Jones (Lab)
Does the Minister acknowledge that any magistrate would tell him that the family court is central to the work of the Bench? Does he know that family courts in particular care about, help and consider the predicament of children from homes that are underprivileged, time and again? How many family courts are there? What does his department do to encourage and train those who make up the family court, and can he say how many magistrates’ courts his Government have closed in the last few years?
Lord Stewart of Dirleton (Con)
My Lords, once again I do not have the specific numerical answers to the noble Lord’s question, but I agree with everything that he said in his prefatory remarks about the importance of this field. I assure him that the Government are aware of that. Cafcass is an independent arm’s-length body which none the less works within the Civil Service funding structure. The Government have authorised uplifts over budget during the past two years to fund this work, the importance of which the noble Lord and I agree upon, and to lay some stress on the work that Cafcass carries out. With his indulgence, again, I will write to him in relation to the specific number questions that he poses.
Baroness Pitkeathley (Lab)
My Lords, I declare an interest as a former chair of Cafcass. Does the Minister agree that the difficulties of staffing for these services are a reflection of the whole social work profession, with low morale and very great difficulties of recruitment and retention because of poor pay and poor support over a great many years?
Lord Stewart of Dirleton (Con)
My Lords, one of the difficulties in relation to retention of staff in this body is a pay structure which means that the pay of Cafcass staff, tied as it is to Civil Service staffing models, can be less than what is available to professional people working for other agencies, such as in local government. In those circumstances, the Government are in regular contact with Cafcass officials and senior management and are satisfied that they are conscious of the great problems to which the noble Baroness alludes in her question. As to the retention and recruitment of staff, the Government are working with Cafcass to seek to maintain and, indeed, improve levels of staffing in this important area.
Lord Moylan (Con)
My Lords, in view of the continuing scandal of prisoners held on indefinite sentences for public protection, is my noble and learned friend satisfied that the training provided to probation officers for dealing with IPP prisoners has met the aspirations set in the 2019 IPP action plan?
Lord Stewart of Dirleton (Con)
My Lords, I regret that once again I do not have the specific data in relation to the IPP plan to which my noble friend Lord Moylan refers. Once again, with his patience and that of the House, I will write to him on the topic.
Lord Woolf (CB)
Do the figures that the House has been given by the Minister reflect the view of the Lord Chancellor that the approach to probation should include responsibility for giving the views of victims of crime after a person has been convicted?
Lord Stewart of Dirleton (Con)
My Lords, disclosure of and taking into account the views of persons who are connected with or are directly victims of crimes is not a matter which bears directly upon the responsibilities of the probation service, but I assure the noble and learned Lord that the views of the Lord Chancellor in relation to the importance of this are being taken into account.
Lord Ponsonby of Shulbrede (Lab)
My Lords, I want to ask about unpaid work as part of a community sentence. There is a huge backlog. For example, in January the east Midlands probation service had in excess of 100,000 hours of unpaid work which had not been delivered, and a low number of offenders actually complete their unpaid work. This undermines the sentence itself as well as victims’ faith in the justice system. What can the Minister say about the staffing levels necessary to administer unpaid work? Does he believe that this backlog can be reduced by any sensible proportion in the next year or so?
Lord Stewart of Dirleton (Con)
My Lords, training for probation staff to equip them with the necessary knowledge and information to be able to superintend unpaid work in the community, as with every aspect of their work, is invaluable. The Government have met their target to recruit 1,000 officers holding professional qualifications in probation for the financial year 2020-21 and 1,500 officers for the financial year 2021-22.
As for the noble Lord’s point about recognition of the importance of such work and how to ensure it is addressed, the Government recognise the importance of unpaid work in the community as an aspect of the sentence, note the backlog and the complex background against which that backlog has arisen—specifically the problems in relation to offender management caused by the pandemic—and are resolving them as quickly as possible.
Male Victims of Crime: Support
(2 years, 6 months ago)
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Lord Ponsonby of Shulbrede
To ask Her Majesty’s Government, further to their policy paper Supporting male victims, published on 5 May, what plans they have to ensure that male victims of crimes are supported.
The Minister of State, Home Office (Baroness Williams of Trafford) (Con)
My Lords, male victims are included in and benefit from the support of measures in the tackling violence against women and girls strategy and the tackling domestic abuse plan. The Government recognise the specific challenges that male victims of these crimes may face. We have published Supporting Male Victims, outlining commitments to address these issues. The Home Office also funds the Men’s Advice Line and is uplifting funding for this year.
Lord Ponsonby of Shulbrede (Lab)
I thank the Minister for that Answer. Dame Vera Baird, the Government’s Victims’ Commissioner, wrote:
“It is estimated that one in six men will experience sexual violence or abuse at some point in their lives … The Home Office’s refreshed ‘Supporting Male Victims’ document—notably not a ‘strategy’—will do shamefully little to advance the interests of these victims … It’s hard to escape the impression that male survivors are an afterthought.”
Does the Minister agree with that statement?
Baroness Williams of Trafford (Con)
In all honesty, I have to say that I do not. In the year ending March 2020, the ONS Crime Survey for England and Wales found that 13.8% of men and 27.6% of women aged 16 to 74 had experienced domestic abuse. That is equivalent to an estimated 2.9 million men and 5.9 million women. So the VAWG strategy reflects the disproportionate impact on women, but that is absolutely not to say that we take no notice of the impact on male victims. In fact, we recognise some of the difficulties that men can find in, first, coming forward to report the abuse and, secondly, taking it through the criminal justice system.
Lord Farmer (Con)
My Lords, following on from that question, one-third of domestic abuse victims are men and, per the new Domestic Abuse Act, boys who witness domestic abuse are also victims, yet many male victims of violence are categorised as victims of “violence against women and girls”, while others have no specific policy. Does the Minister agree that this categorisation is semantic nonsense, and that ignoring men’s specific needs makes a mockery of equality? Moreover, will the Government publish a parallel violence against men and boys strategy to cover all forms of intimate violence against men and boys?
Baroness Williams of Trafford (Con)
My noble friend’s figures are absolutely right. Had we done it in the way that he suggests, there may have been a lot of complaints from women and domestic abuse organisations that we had not reflected the fact that it is predominantly women who suffer from domestic abuse. However, we published the Supporting Male Victims document in March to help to raise awareness of this issue and highlight the specialist support that may be required to assist them. They are included in both the tackling VAWG strategy and the tackling domestic abuse plan. As I said yesterday, anyone who comes forward as a victim of domestic violence will be treated first and foremost as a victim, whether they are male or female.
Baroness Burt of Solihull (LD)
Is the position paper in itself not inadequate, in that, while it outlines many of the barriers that men face, it does very little to address them? ManKind and other charities are calling for a full-blown strategy called the “intimate violence and abuse against men and boys strategy”. Does not the suffering of men deserve to be treated as equally valid to that of women?
Baroness Williams of Trafford (Con)
It most certainly does. As I explained in my previous answer, this does not diminish the problems that men face, but we as a Government recognise that the disproportionate effect of domestic abuse is on women and girls.
The Lord Bishop of Gloucester
My Lords, in this important issue of violence against men and boys as well as against women and girls, addressing the drivers of violence is as important as responding to it downstream. Can the Minister give an assurance that work is being done to focus on a holistic preventive framework for all domestic and sexual violence, as in Victoria, Australia?
Baroness Williams of Trafford (Con)
I could not agree more with the right reverend Prelate on the point that preventing it in the first place is far better than having it happen and there being subsequent victims of it. We did a lot of work with the Troubled Families programme in tackling the problems upstream and identifying people who were victims or might become victims—and I think that is the basis for a good government policy.
Lord Flight (Con)
My Lords, is there a policy of similar punishments for similar crimes, or are favours still given to women?
Baroness Williams of Trafford (Con)
I do not think there should be any favour. The whole concept and application of domestic abuse means that the system should ensure remedies and solutions for victims—as opposed to “favour”, if that is the right word—and I think the criminal justice system, fair as it is, will see to that.
Lord Jones (Lab)
My Lords, does the Minister’s department have any interface with Victim Support across the country? What help, advice and collaboration is there between the organisation Victim Support and her department?
Baroness Williams of Trafford (Con)
We engaged widely with the sector before the Domestic Abuse Act and before the Supporting Male Victims document was produced. The whole premise of our actions is based on the advice and support from, and engagement with, the sector.
Retrofitting Buildings: National Strategy
Baroness Blackstone
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what plans they have (1) to publish the lessons learned from the Green Homes Grant, and (2) to introduce a national strategy for retrofitting buildings.
Baroness Bloomfield of Hinton Waldrist (Con)
The government response to the Public Accounts Committee report on the green homes grant voucher scheme, published on 24 February 2022, discussed a number of lessons. IPSOS is also undertaking an independent evaluation, due for publication in autumn 2023. The heat and buildings strategy sets out the actions that we will be taking to reduce emissions from buildings and provides the long-term framework to enable industry to invest and deliver the transition to low-carbon heating.
Baroness Blackstone (Ind Lab)
My Lords, I thank the Minister for her reply, but I am sure she will agree that the failure of the green homes grant, which was eventually scrapped, was largely due to the lack of skilled and trained workers in the construction industry to undertake the work needed. Should not the short-term measures that were involved in the green homes grant be replaced by a genuine long-term funded strategy that emphasises training and skilling? Does she agree that, without that, it is very likely that we will not achieve our decarbonisation targets, and fuel poverty will go on increasing?
Baroness Bloomfield of Hinton Waldrist (Con)
I could not agree more with the thrust of the noble Baroness’s question. The heat and buildings strategy is designed to provide a long-term framework for these initiatives. We are investing £2.5 billion in a national skills fund to support the immediate economic recovery and the skills needed to deliver on our net-zero targets, and we invested £6.9 million alongside the green homes grant voucher scheme to deliver over 8,000 training opportunities. We are continuing to work with businesses and key industry bodies and have launched the Green Jobs Taskforce to produce an action plan for just this sort of initiative.
Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)
My Lords, there are said to be some 23 million existing homes with gas boilers, although some people believe that the figure could be very much larger. How long will it take to tackle the conversion of all those to heat pumps or hydrogen? What is it going to cost? Is this really the best way of contributing, as we must, to tackling rising global emissions?
Baroness Bloomfield of Hinton Waldrist (Con)
My noble friend will be aware of the boiler upgrade grant scheme, which was just launched in May. That will provide capital grants to support the installation of low-carbon heat technologies away from fossil-fuel heating. As for how long it will take to replace all those heat boilers, it will take time because, as my noble friend says, the task is enormous—but we are investing £6.6 billion over the course of this Parliament to improve energy efficiency and decarbonise heating.
Baroness Brown of Cambridge (CB)
My Lords, can the Minister assure the House that future government initiatives for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from buildings will also include climate adaptation measures such as addressing overheating and poor indoor air quality, as recommended by the Climate Change Committee?
Baroness Bloomfield of Hinton Waldrist (Con)
The noble Baroness makes a very good point. These questions are really for the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities, but the Government are committed to the new home standards and there is a review of building regulations under way, which is probably the best route, rather than legislation.
Lord Foster of Bath (LD)
My Lords, it is the retrofit industry that is able to deliver the Government’s often-repeated target of getting all fuel-poor homes to EPC band C by 2030. But, having been let down so many times, that industry says it would be much more likely to invest in equipment and training with the certainty provided by putting that target into legislation. Can the Minister tell us why the Government refuse to do that?
Baroness Bloomfield of Hinton Waldrist (Con)
I cannot answer that specific point but, if the noble Lord had been present yesterday at the University of Birmingham’s presentation on this, he would understand that a lot of what it discussed was in exactly this area. It went on to say that more power should be devolved to local authorities to bring forward the retrofitting of buildings. But companies like Vaillant and Cadent are doing an awful lot of research into retrofitting and adapting to the future possibility of using hydrogen in the heating system, which will also help to decarbonise it.
Lord Duncan of Springbank (Con)
My Lords, I will pick up on a point from the noble Baroness, Lady Blackstone. It is estimated that only one in six manage to secure tradesmen qualified to install under the green grant scheme, which is an extraordinarily low figure. How do we know that it will improve? What measures are the Government bringing in to improve it, and how will we measure that?
Baroness Bloomfield of Hinton Waldrist (Con)
That follows on from my answer to the noble Baroness, Lady Blackstone, about how we are trying to improve supply chain capacity and upskill the workforce. We learned these lessons from the failure of the green homes grant scheme—there simply were not enough qualified technicians to install under the necessary upgrade schemes. The boiler upgrade scheme was specifically designed so that installers would be able to invest in their workforce to increase the capacity for the market to make those sorts of changes.
Baroness Warwick of Undercliffe (Lab)
My Lords, I press the Minister on the response that she gave to the noble Baroness, Lady Blackstone. I declare an interest as chair of the National Housing Federation. Housing associations face real challenges, in terms of both strategic funding and, in particular, green jobs and skills. I press the Minister on the timing: what progress has been made by the green skills taskforce in producing an action plan, and when does she expect it to be published?
Baroness Bloomfield of Hinton Waldrist (Con)
I am afraid I do not have in my brief the exact timing for when we will publish the results of that, but I will perhaps write to the noble Baroness with a response and put a copy in the Library for everyone else.
Baroness Sheehan (LD)
My Lords, in the interests of future-proofing against the need for retrofitting, does the Minister agree that, as well as a long-term retrofit strategy for existing buildings, we also need to introduce building regulations on targets and reporting for embodied carbon to ensure that developers consider this in all construction projects, as recommended by the Part Z campaign, which enjoys considerable industry support?
Baroness Bloomfield of Hinton Waldrist (Con)
The noble Baroness makes a very good point that I shall definitely take back to my other department, the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities—building regulations are really a matter for it.
Lord Lilley (Con)
My Lords, has my noble friend reviewed the pilot study carried out by the chief scientific adviser to the DCLG in 2019 on retrofitting a sample of social houses? It found that the average cost of doing this was £85,000 per house, but the reduction in emissions was only 60%. If scaled up nationally and if we take the heroic assumption that costs will be reduced by a factor of three, it would still cost £1 trillion. Have any of the proponents of retrofitting suggested where this money will come from?
Baroness Bloomfield of Hinton Waldrist (Con)
I draw my noble friend’s attention to Selly Oak’s project to retrofit many of its poor council houses. This is under way at the moment, but it seems to be having a much better result than the examples that he has just cited.
Baroness Blake of Leeds (Lab)
My Lords, buildings are responsible for about 30% of primary energy use in the UK and nearly half of all carbon emissions. As we have heard, the Government’s failures with the green homes grant and the absence of efficiency measures in the energy security strategy, including the crucial issue of retrofitting, suggest that they have little idea of how to tackle this significant issue. Can the Minister tell us what measures we will see in the upcoming energy security Bill to show that lessons have finally been learned?
Baroness Bloomfield of Hinton Waldrist (Con)
I do not think that anyone could disagree that we learned a number of lessons from the failure of the green homes grant—but we need to understand that its primary objective was to upskill the workforce and support jobs after the pandemic, as well as to drive forward the net-zero agenda for this Government. We learned that a limited number of installers were registered, although we did install 47,000 upgrades. We also learned that the 12-week timescale was insufficient to produce a meaningful scheme, and we did not do enough consultation before introducing such a complex scheme. But those issues have been addressed, and the whole heat and buildings strategy needs to be seen in the round—it sets out the long-term objective, and the upcoming energy security Bill is just a part of that overall objective.
Baroness Sugg (Con)
My Lords, can my noble friend the Minister explain why home retrofit schemes are so hard for the Government to deliver?
Baroness Bloomfield of Hinton Waldrist (Con)
There is no one-size-fits-all approach to tackling the UK’s diverse housing stock—that is part of the problem. Successfully delivering a retrofitting scheme has to balance a number of variables, including complexity, choice, value for money and quality assurance. It also has to address some of the fraud that took place in earlier schemes. The “fabric first” approach to retrofitting buildings before installing heat pumps is sensible, but it has a much longer-term time horizon, which also adds to the complexity of the scheme. Do not forget that, over the past 10 years, the Government have been successful in delivering a number of schemes, such as the energy company obligation, the renewable heat incentive and the green homes deal improvement fund. Over that timescale, we increased the number of houses with energy rating C from 14% to 46%.
Ryanair: Afrikaans Language Test
(2 years, 6 months ago)
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Baroness Chakrabarti
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what discussions they have had with Ryanair in respect of the Afrikaans language test administered by that airline to South African passport holders before flights to and from the United Kingdom.
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department for Transport (Baroness Vere of Norbiton) (Con)
My Lords, the language test requirement for passengers travelling with Ryanair is not a UK government requirement. The FCDO’s post in South Africa has confirmed this via its social media channels and has been in touch with the South Africa’s Department of International Relations and Cooperation. My department has approach Ryanair for comment. As yet, we have received no response.
Baroness Chakrabarti (Lab)
I am grateful to the Minister for that. Like other noble Lords, she will remember that next week will mark 46 years since attempts to impose the Afrikaans language on black South African children led to the Soweto uprising. Today, in post-apartheid South Africa, Afrikaans is one of 11 official languages, and it is less prevalent than Zulu and Xhosa, so using Afrikaans to verify citizenship is as ignorant as it is insulting and discriminatory. Will the Minister and her Government explore all potential regulatory options to persuade Ryanair to the cause of common sense and decency?
Baroness Vere of Norbiton (Con)
When the noble Baroness raised this with me earlier this week, I thought that the entire thing was morally dubious and surely not appropriate, and my view has not changed. If a passenger is refused the right to fly despite having the correct documents and there being no other grounds for the refusal, they have the right to compensation—I encourage all such passengers to take it up—by being either reimbursed or rerouted to another destination. I completely and utterly take the noble Baroness’s point. As I said, we have not yet heard from Ryanair, and I will take this up with the Aviation Minister and the CAA to ensure that we do whatever we can to make it see sense, frankly, in this matter.
Lord Purvis of Tweed (LD)
My Lords, the South African Government have recognised that this is not UK government policy, and I also recognise that. But, as the Minister said, Ryanair operates under licences, part of which states that the company has to be in good repute. It is not in good repute if it is, in effect, in breach of Article 14 of the European Convention on Human Rights for discrimination on the basis of language. It is also not in good repute if it gives this whole country a poor reputation among international travellers. Will the Minister not seek to persuade Ryanair or ask it for comment but rather demand a reply? If that is not forthcoming, will she ask the regulator to take action?
Baroness Vere of Norbiton (Con)
I wholly expect that we will get a reply from Ryanair, although our relationship with it has not always been as open as one would like. But the civil aviation consumers and markets group within the CAA is already looking at this and is in contact with Ryanair, so I will not make any further comment at this time, before those conversations have resolved themselves.
Viscount Waverley (CB)
My Lords, since the Minister is minded to engage with Ryanair, might she or one of her colleagues ask whether Gaelic will be a prerequisite for Irish passport holders to fly to Dublin?
Baroness Vere of Norbiton (Con)
I am not sure I can commit to doing that, although I do recognise that Ryanair is based in Ireland. There are a number of people, organisations and Governments involved in this entire sorry debacle that could put pressure on Ryanair to make it see sense.
Lord Reid of Cardowan (Lab)
My Lords, did the Minister have the opportunity this week to listen to or watch the debate on the Irish language regulations coming to this House? Irrespective of what view people took on that, one thing is very obvious: the great sensitivity of issues concerning language, particularly in Ireland at this moment. Is it therefore not ironic that this crass move should have been made by Ryanair? When she is exchanging comments with Ryanair, could she bring this to its attention?
Baroness Vere of Norbiton (Con)
I am not sure there is much more I can add to that. I entirely agree with the noble Lord.
Lord Foulkes of Cumnock (Lab Co-op)
My Lords, this is not the only example of Ryanair, and indeed other airlines, treating passengers in a cavalier manner over the last few days. What action are the Government now taking? Only the Government can work together with the airlines, airports, air traffic control and all the others involved to try to make sure that passengers are treated like human beings and not animals.
Baroness Vere of Norbiton (Con)
I warmly invite the noble Lord to a QSD that will take place in your Lordships’ House at about 3 o’clock today. I will be going into great detail about what the Government are doing in terms of our work with the airports and airlines. It is the case that it is not every single airline and airport, but there is much we can do with the entire sector regarding skills, recruitment and training, and we are working on that. We recognise that there are challenges for the sector, and the Government are going to step in to do what they can.
Lord Tunnicliffe (Lab)
Given the uniformity of view on this question, may I probe the Minister a little further? Can she tell us what powers the Government have to force Ryanair to take a more enlightened view?
Baroness Vere of Norbiton (Con)
As I said, I am probably not going to go much further than I already have, because we have yet to hear back from Ryanair. A number of noble Lords have recognised that the CAA, as the UK’s regulator, may well be able to assist Ryanair in reaching the right decision.
Baroness Ritchie of Downpatrick (Lab)
My Lords, will the Minister take the opportunity provided by the British-Irish Council, which contains representatives from the British Government, the devolved Administrations, including the Northern Ireland Executive, and the Irish Government, to raise this issue immediately? If it is not possible to have a British-Irish Council at the moment because of the standing down of the institutions under the Good Friday agreement, it would be greatly appreciated if the Minister could nevertheless deal with this issue, given its importance and the need to emphasise equality in all matters in South Africa.
Baroness Vere of Norbiton (Con)
I will certainly take that idea away and see whether it is a route that will achieve the quickest resolution to this matter.
Lord Berkeley (Lab)
My Lords, following on from my noble friend Lord Foulkes’s question, could the Minister have a look at the processes at Prestwick Airport? I am told that passengers can go through without any delay whatsoever. Maybe they have got something to teach the rest of us.
Baroness Vere of Norbiton (Con)
If we are talking about specific experiences at specific airports, I landed at Gatwick on Friday afternoon and 30 minutes later, I was standing outside waiting for my minicab. The point is that it is not happening at all airports at all times. There are certainly peaks when things are falling over a little, and that is the thing we really have to tackle. As I say, the Government are well aware of the issues and we are looking to see what we can do.
Lord Harris of Haringey (Lab)
My Lords, I am not sure the Minister answered my noble friend Lord Tunnicliffe’s question very satisfactorily. He asked what the Government are able to do under those circumstances. Are we to understand that the Minister’s department made inquiries of Ryanair without being clear what its back-up position was, or indeed what powers it has in this respect?
Baroness Vere of Norbiton (Con)
No. Clearly, we need a response from Ryanair because we cannot always believe what we read in the media, so that is our first step. Of course, the CAA has already issued a statement and as the UK’s regulator and the body that issues licences, it will be looking closely at this.
Health Promotion Bill [HL]
Thursday 9th June 2022
(2 years, 6 months ago)
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Lord Addington (LD)
My Lords, I declare my membership of the all-party group and my interests in sport generally, particularly in rugby union, being a trustee of the Atlas Foundation and secretary of—and still playing for—the Commons & Lords Rugby Union Football Club.
Public Advocate Bill [HL]
Thursday 9th June 2022
(2 years, 6 months ago)
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Ukraine: Defence Relationships
(2 years, 6 months ago)
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Lord Liddle
That this House takes note of (1) the impact of the conflict in Ukraine, (2) the implications for the Integrated Defence Review, and (3) the case for the United Kingdom strengthening (a) its relationships with the European Union and other European allies, and (b) its commitment to NATO.
Lord Liddle (Lab)
My Lords, right at the start of this debate I want to put on record my admiration for the courage and heroism of Ukraine’s people and their president. The Russian invasion of Ukraine constitutes the greatest threat to peace in Europe since the Second World War. None of us imagined that we would ever again witness such terrible scenes of armed butchery on our continent, even though the horrors of Yugoslavia in the 1990s warn us that the blood-soaked legacies of Europe’s history cannot simply be washed away.
I have some experience of Ukraine. Some 20 years ago, the Prime Minister appointed me to head a regular No. 10 dialogue with its presidential administration. We visited Ukraine four or five times, taking in Crimea, Odessa and Lviv, as well as Kyiv, and there were return meetings in London. President Leonid Kuchma’s Ukraine was then deeply divided, caught between its western provinces, which are more nationalist and committed to Europe, and the pro-European east where the oligarchs retained close links to the old Soviet fatherland but did not want a return to Moscow domination. These divisions deepened at the time of 2014 revolution, the deposition and fleeing of President Yanukovych, Putin’s seizure of Crimea and the outbreak of civil war in the Donbass. Putin’s behaviour since then has force Ukrainians to make a choice, with the vast majority choosing freedom and independence, united behind a commitment to a shared European future.
Today, my emotions are very simple ones. Thank God for NATO. Thank God for 70-years of cross-party leadership that learned the lessons of the 20th century: that the world is safer when Britain does not cower, does not retrench and does not abandon our hard-fought values out of political expediency. Also, as a Labour man, let me say thank God for Clem Attlee and Ernest Bevin, who gave us this legacy. Thank God for leaders of the Labour Party such as Hugh Gaitskell, Denis Healey and Jim Callaghan, who consistently sustained that legacy; and, in my generation, my noble friends Lord Robertson of Port Ellen and Lord Reid, both whom I had the privilege of working with very closely. Today, Keir Starmer stands firmly in that same tradition.
The Ukraine crisis shows that NATO belongs to the future not the past. It has shown the crucial role that at present the United States, and only the United States, can play. Joe Biden and his Administration have been magnificent, but the shadow of a re-elected Donald Trump hangs over NATO like a suspended death sentence. There will be no closer watchers of the 2022 mid-terms and the presidential primaries than the occupants of the Kremlin.
I congratulate the Government for a good part of their immediate Ukraine response: tougher sanctions on Russia, help for Ukraine’s devastated economy and rapid supply of weaponry. Yet our support for refugees has been lamentable, and we must do more to sanction Russians and hold them financially accountable for their conduct. Liz Truss’s rhetoric on war aims is overblown; she should remember that it is the brave Ukrainians, not us, who are fighting this war on the ground. Our aim should be to put Ukraine in a position where Zelensky can bring Putin to the negotiating table from a position of strength, not be forced to accede to a ceasefire that offers merely a temporary pause while Russia regroups. That requires Europe and the United States to devise a credible offer of military and economic security for Ukraine that, while not full NATO membership, is sufficient to deter Putin from future adventurism. We should also think about offering whoever emerges post Putin as his successor the potential for a relationship based on mutual security and respect, a return to the principles of the NATO-Russia Founding Act. We must preserve and strengthen NATO, and that means Britain and the rest of Europe rising from our past complacency, matching the gravity of current events with a concerted rethinking of the principles of our defence, foreign and wider security policy.
Ukraine has demonstrated that the key to our security is Europe, not the mushy rhetoric of global Britain. The requirement is a stronger and more united Europe with Britain playing its full part. Brexit is done. Let us for now put it behind us. The priority today is a more constructive approach to the EU and its key member states.
Let me suggest five ways forward. First, Britain needs to articulate a Europe-wide strategy to confront and contain Russia. Last year’s integrated review had some strengths. It half-identified the danger that stood before us: a revanchist Russian state intent on aggressively remaking the post-Cold War settlement. Yet it de-emphasised Britain’s commitment to Europe and the need for new thinking on transatlantic and European collective security. It deprioritised the Army. It focused British grand strategy on a tilt towards the Indo-Pacific to confront the rising power of China. It showed, in Professor Michael Clarke’s words,
“frankly insulting indifference to European partners”.
Its claims to be truly integrated now ring hollow. There was no discussion of oil, gas or energy security; no discussion of the role of Russia as the energy tap for so much of post-Cold War European development; no discussion of the power that OPEC nations continue to hold over the West; and no discussion of how the urgent transition from fossil fuels is now a security, as well as climate change, imperative. Furthermore, the advent of economic warfare against the Russian economy, with unprecedented sanctions, the freezing of central bank reserves and the pursuit of oligarchs across the world, is all new in international politics. The integrated review ignored the complexity of it.
Russia is the greatest threat to European security. Let us understand our objectives and our capabilities and build a strategy in common with our allies that will contain its aggressive ambitions. Only by articulating a common strategy, embracing a multilateral security partnership with our European allies, and only by embracing Europe, will we be taken seriously by the United States.
I have a question for the Minister. Are the Government planning to revise seriously their integrated review in the light of changed circumstances? Secondly, this will require reinvestment in British defence capabilities. The integrated review aspired to prepare us for a military challenge on the far side of the world but disregarded the necessary elements that would support our European partners and enable us to proactively confront Russia. The military was to be reshaped as
“leaner, more lethal, nimbler, and more effectively matched to current and future threats”.
Yet the Army in practice are set to lose their entire fleet of Warrior infantry fighting machines, with goodness knows what to replace them, and one-third of their Challenger tanks. Our land forces are now the smallest they have been since the 18th century.
We have been right to provide weaponry to the Ukrainian military, but we need urgently to replenish the stocks of those weapons that we have sent there. Even before Russia’s assault, the defence procurement budget faced a shortfall of more than £7 billion—incidentally, twice the whole of Ukraine’s 2021 defence budget. Rising inflation represents a further axe to the defence budget today, which is held constant in cash terms. My second question for the Minister is how much money has been set aside for replenishment of the weaponry that we have sent to Ukraine, and where is it coming from? The Government wax lyrical about global Britain, but we lack the capabilities to match words with action.
Thirdly, Britain should be an advocate for sustained investment in Ukrainian reconstruction and dealing with the global fallout from the conflict. NATO did not emerge in a vacuum. There was the Marshall Plan, and the focus on economic and social conditions, which brilliantly demonstrated the superiority of our values and economic system. Circumstances call on us to do the same again today. We must help Ukraine with debt—and, as for the emerging global famine, that is going to test us an awful lot over the coming months. We have to consider using the frozen Russian assets to invest in Ukrainian redevelopment and the mitigation of the global food crisis.
Fourthly, we must transform Britain’s relationship with the European Union, which our Government continue to treat with disdain. In some regards, this is deeply comical—for instance, when the Prime Minister would have us believe that the Ukrainian people’s struggle for their very lives is akin to Brexit. When the Foreign Secretary went to Brussels, she tweeted about her meetings with NATO and G7 allies but somehow forgot that she had been invited to the EU Foreign Affairs Council, a very special step on the part of the EU. Contempt cannot be a guiding principle for British foreign policy. The Foreign Secretary’s notion of an international network of liberty sounds appealing, but what on earth does it mean in practice? Sanctions, aid, energy policy and now weapons provisions are being co-ordinated through the mechanisms of the European Union. We must deal with realities, not fantasies, and build a sustainable partnership with them.
Fifthly—and this will be more controversial, I think—we should work with our European allies and partners to develop greater European strategic autonomy. Some deride President Macron’s advocacy of European strategic autonomy as a typically Gaullist and anti-American thing. I can see friends nodding on the other side of the House. Or they see it as a federalist project with which we should have nothing to do whatever. But in my view, it can be seen as a means of getting the whole of Europe to be serious about defence, as, thankfully, under Olaf Scholz, the Germans now are. It can, should and will complement NATO, not threaten NATO. How long have the Americans and the UK complained about the continent not living up to our NATO responsibilities? As a result of Ukraine, Germany is set to surpass, quite soon, the UK as the third-largest defence spender in the world.
We have no relationship with the enlarged budget of the European Defence Agency. How are we going to take part in procurement programmes? President Macron recently articulated the interesting idea of a tiered European political arrangement, with an outer political community for nations that are not EU members. Is this not an opportunity for Britain, a potential vehicle for closer European co-operation, without rejoining the EU itself?
I have another question for the Minister. What consideration are the Government giving to President Macron’s thinking? A European political community involves no loss of sovereignty for us. For Ukraine, it offers the chance to fulfil its European vocation. Some 86% of Ukrainians support EU membership— even two-thirds of those who live in the eastern provinces. I believe the EU should accept Ukraine as a candidate for membership, but getting there would be protracted and complex and exacerbated by the war. A European political community could give reality to Ukraine’s European vocation much sooner.
In conclusion, Putin is driving Europe together and driving it to change. Britain has to go with the flow. We are thinking a lot about the forthcoming NATO summit, the welcome prospect of Finnish and Swedish membership, the revision of the NATO strategic concept, but we should also be thinking about how we work with Europe’s common security and defence policy. Brexit has warped the discourse on European co-operation for far too long. There is no better time than this moment of acute danger for Britain to change course.
Lord Hannan of Kingsclere (Con)
My Lords, what a pleasure to follow the thoughtful and comprehensive Motion moved by the noble Lord, Lord Liddle. I would like to associate myself with the paean of praise to those level-headed, responsible Labour leaders down the decades who were prepared to deploy proportionate force in defence of western values, starting with that flinty patriot and still underrated politician Ernest Bevin.
I do not think many of us expected to be here after nearly three and a half months. If we cast our minds back to the dark days—figuratively and literally—of late February, I think we were expecting something very different. The talk then was about a Ukrainian Government in exile and counterinsurgency operations behind the lines and possibly some Ukrainian forces operating across the border from NATO territory. Why did that not happen? Why were the expectations, not only from the Kremlin but from most international observers, so misplaced? Obviously, there is not a single or simple answer, but I thought an interesting light was shone on it by a story that emerged towards the end of March, which suggested that the entire leadership of the Fifth Service of Russia’s FSB had been arrested.
These are, necessarily, murky waters and we cannot say for sure what happened in the world of espionage, but what seems to have happened—if the sources are believed—is that, as early as the 2014 intervention, Putin was planning a second intervention. He realised after the annexation of Crimea and part of Donbass that he had upset what had been an equilibrium between —to borrow 19th-century Russian terminology—westernisers and Slavophiles in Ukraine. He had taken several million Russophile voters out of the equation and given the pro-NATO forces a majority. He seems to have decided then on a further and decisive intervention.
If reports are to be believed, Putin set aside a substantial budget of billions of roubles to suborn key Ukrainians when the moment came, to bring regional governors, army generals, policy chiefs, mayors et cetera on to the payroll so that, at the key moment, they would open the gates. They would switch sides, denounce the Zelensky regime or whichever one was in power and accept the jurisdiction of whatever puppet regime was put in by the Kremlin. The problem was that the FSB did not believe the invasion would ever happen, and so the money that was set aside to prepare Ukraine instead disappeared into yachts in Cyprus and into Swiss bank accounts. We can imagine the scenes towards the end of last year when the President of the Russian Federation called in his spy chiefs and said, “Are we ready to go?” We can imagine a lot of nervous fingering of collars: “Absolutely, Vladimir Vladimirovich. No problem at all.” What were they going to do? They cannot even come here because, as we know from the Skripal and Litvinenko affairs, there is nowhere safe for an ex-spy. So they did the only thing you can logically do in that position. They tried to stop the invasion happening so that their embezzlement should not come to light, and they did so by telling us exactly what was planned, which was why our intelligence was so accurate.
I cannot, of course, confirm that story, but it does seem pretty plausible, especially when we look at what happened following the invasion. We saw the same pattern again and again, of failures of equipment and failures of procurement, because the fundamental weakness of any autocratic system is that people tell their superiors what they want to hear. Therefore, what was expected in the Kremlin, even now, was very far from what was happening on the ground. This, it seems to me, is the real strength of democracies. It is why we tend to have a surprisingly good record at winning wars. It is not that our people are braver or more virtuous; it is that we have better mechanisms in place to identify and correct errors. That, among other things, is a system worth defending.
We can argue about what exact military and strategic response we should take. One could take the line the noble Lord, Lord Liddle, just took. One could equally argue that in fact, since NATO was put together largely to contain a Soviet menace, and since the Russian menace has shown to be much weaker than we thought as recently as February, the time to be strengthening NATO was five years ago, and so the argument for it is now weaker than it was. There is a debate to be had, and it should be had in a judicious and thoughtful manner. You can at least make the case for a more global and dispersed approach to security and that the peculiar interest in western Europe’s security that dominated our post-war thinking is no longer quite as pressing.
Whatever view we take on that, the one thing we have learned is that it is worth defending our values even if that means going out-of-area. The invasion of Ukraine was no threat to the United Kingdom. There was no realistic scenario in which Russian troops were going to be marching through Kent. But as in 1914, as in 1939, we took a decision to defend our values in the defence of allied European democracies. Sure, it is an imperfect democracy in the case of Ukraine—I do not think anyone denies that—but, none the less, it had an aspiration to become a more pluralistic and liberal society. When we endorse that process in other countries, we make the world safer and more prosperous for ourselves. It is for that reason that I hope noble Lords on all sides will add their voices to those of the patriotic Ukrainian soldiers as they fire their British-made missiles at Russian armour and join them in saying, “God save the Queen.”
Lord West of Spithead (Lab)
My Lords, while I think it is right that we should review the integrated review in the context of the Ukraine war and a number of global issues that have come to light because of that war, I think the integrated review was broadly accurate in identifying the trends that would shape national security and the international environment over the next decade. It stated very clearly that NATO should remain
“the foundation of collective security”
in the Euro-Atlantic region and identified Russia as remaining “the most acute threat” to the UK’s security—both of which I think were right.
A number of people, including my noble friend Lord Liddle, believe there is not enough emphasis on working with the EU on security and defence matters. Having been involved in the defence arena for some 57 years, and a major NATO commander for a number of those years, I have no doubt whatever that we must ensure that our European allies channel their co-operative defence efforts through NATO, rather than trying to construct what I would call a “lesser NATO”, which will just divert resources for no defence benefit.
I also strongly support the integrated review’s intent that the UK should become
“the European partner with the broadest and most integrated presence in the Indo-Pacific—committed for the long term, with closer and deeper partnerships, bilaterally and multilaterally”
in that arena. Many of my interlocutors in the US military see this very much as a quid pro quo: the US has supported us in Europe and is delighted that we are actually showing an intent to do so in that region. It would be a catastrophic mistake to ignore the Indo-Pacific and China because of the war in Ukraine. I have no doubt that that will be a threat that comes up on us.
My difficulties are rather around the MoD plans laid out in Defence in a Competitive Age, which covered the contribution of the MoD and the Armed Forces to achieving the objectives set out in the IR. Much of this stems from the fact that, despite all sorts of intentions, there has been a lack of funding in defence for many years. Looking to the future, that lack of funding is exacerbated by the assumption of what are very illusory efficiency savings—they just will not happen; we know this from past experience. Spending money on defence is clearly very hard for Governments in our cosy, secure society, but the reason we are in a cosy, secure society is because we spent money on defence. There is considerable truth in the view that wars are won not on the battlefield but by building up military capability beforehand. It is noticed by competitors, particularly dictators, and therefore it prevents war—but it takes time.
Many of us who have warned of chronic underfunding have been told time and again that we are wrong. The reality is that our Armed Forces are too weak to prevent war, which is something that Armed Forces do rather well, and if there is a war, which I am afraid one day there probably will be, they lack the equipment and manpower to keep us safe. Our Army, Navy and Air Force are too small. They lack the ability to withstand the inevitable attrition and are insufficiently equipped with state-of-the-art, fully maintained weapons—that is important—and sufficient war stocks—that too is important—for the inevitably high war-usage rates that we know happen, as Ukraine has illustrated very clearly.
The integrated review planned to restructure the Armed Forces for
“permanent and persistent global engagement”.
Therefore, our maritime strategy makes sense, not least because we are an island nation, which we seem to forget regularly, and in particular after the large shift of resources away from the maritime into the continental warfare area over decades in our counter-terrorist and failed nation building in south-east Asia. One cannot fault the desire to make the Army
“more lethal, nimbler and more effectively matched to current and future threats.”
Of course we want to do that, but we need to be very wary of making it “leaner”. Numbers matter, whether of ships, aircraft or people. The reduction of the Army to 72,500 is a step too far.
There seems to be a belief in government that future wars will be fought solely in cyberspace, using advanced technologies such as AI and quantum, and that there is no need for traditional military equipment and numbers. That is dangerously simplistic nonsense. Clearly, those new things are very important to the way we fight a war, but we need more than that. Greater integration of traditional maritime, land and air capabilities with the domains of cyber and space, and increasing investment in those domains, makes sense, but it does not mean spending less, I am afraid, on the traditional areas: they cannot be cut. For example, the advantages of high tech in helping the Ukrainians have been highlighted in this recent conflict, but the Ukrainians still need boots on the ground. The steady pressure of heavy forces is grinding them down, and we ignore that at our peril. Tanks, for example, are not redundant. The fact that so much effort and expense are put into destroying them shows that they remain important on the battlefield. No, we do not need large tank armies, but my goodness we still need tanks.
One area we need to note is the recently increased Russian jamming of GPS receivers on the drones that Ukraine has been using to such good effect to locate the enemy, direct artillery fire and attack tanks. They are now becoming ineffective because of Russian jamming of GPS. I have spoken before in the House about our vulnerability to GPS jamming: we really have to do something, and I think this needs urgent government attention. So is this now being done and co-ordinated, because it is a crucial risk to us?
The Government have a choice over whether we spend what is required to ensure the safety of our nation in defence terms to stop world war, look after our dependencies and our people or not. At present, I believe they are getting the choice wrong. The decline in military capability is a choice, and not one we should have made in a highly chaotic and very dangerous world. With war raging in Europe, and possibly extending to a world war, there is a need for an immediate uplift in defence spending.
Baroness Ludford (LD)
My Lords, I thank the noble Lord, Lord Liddle, for this very timely and important debate. The noble Lord, Lord Hannan, said we have a better system in place, as a democracy, to identify and correct errors. I thoroughly agree, and I am going to talk about correcting the errors of Brexit.
There has been much debate this week over how to improve the economic and trade relationship with the EU, not least the suggestion by senior Conservative MP Tobias Ellwood that the UK should seek to rejoin the single market and customs union—a suggestion my party fully endorses, but it has ruffled some Brexiter feathers. A closer relationship in foreign and security policy ought to be less controversial. It was a sadly missed opportunity that this was not part of the Brexit deal, partly because of the poison from the rest of the “done deal”. The lack of trust being generated by this Government is prejudicing the chance of picking up that baton again and capitalising on the UK’s undoubted assets in security, defence and diplomacy. Health Secretary Sajid Javid has urged the RMT rail union to think again, act sensibly, “act like adults” and withdraw its strike threat. Would that he would address the same admonition to the Prime Minister over the crazy and damaging proposal to tear up the Northern Ireland protocol.
It is not only the prospects for British science that are being damaged by the confrontational approach currently being pursued. British, European, transatlantic and indeed global security are being harmed as well by the absence of trust and the failure to seize opportunities for a closer foreign and security relationship. Apart from changes in attitude, there needs to be a big, clear political declaration of a fundamental change in the UK’s approach, setting out the intention to act as a good neighbour to the EU and to repair the damage caused over the last six years by Conservative Governments, and especially this one. This may not happen under the present Government, but hopefully will under a new one. There is a clear basis for extending co-operation, building on areas where it is working well, most obviously in the policy towards Ukraine. It makes sense to start with the content of co-operative ventures and look later for suitable structures and mechanisms, but it can start with good relationships through meetings of Ministers and officials, maybe backed with exchanges of staff, such as between the FCDO and the European External Action Service.
The present Government have prioritised bilateral relationships with EU states over those with the EU institutions. There is nothing wrong with good bilateral relations, of course, except that doing it in order to undermine the EU and somehow demonstrate that the UK does not need, and indeed disdains, the EU is very unwise and counterproductive. I hope the current Foreign Secretary can adopt a more pragmatic attitude than the arrogant one of the previous incumbent. Maybe the FCDO does not do humility, but the attitude of superiority coupled with cynicism that the UK often got away with as a member state will not wash as a third country.
There needs to be a recognition in London, in particular, that the EU is a serious security and defence actor. The scope for this is evident from the experience on sanctions against Russia over Ukraine, where the alignment has either been explicit, such as UK sanctions mirroring those of the EU, or the two have been complementary and mutually reinforcing. This is an excellent precedent.
The European Council, at the Versailles summit in March,
“reaffirmed their commitment to take more responsibility for the EU’s own security … The leaders stressed that continued strong coordination on security and defence with partners and allies is key in this respect, including EU-NATO cooperation”.
In addition, EU
“leaders agreed to … develop further incentives for collaborative investments in joint projects and procurement; invest in … cybersecurity … ; foster synergies between civilian, defence and space research and innovation”
and
“invest in critical and emerging technologies”.
This surely gives a good platform for deepening UK-EU co-operation over defence industrial issues, perhaps by joining or becoming an associate of the European Defence Agency.
The UK could also seek to participate in one or more PESCO—Permanent Structured Cooperation—projects. The one on Military Mobility is much valued by EU and NATO members in eastern Europe, and is indeed a centrepiece of the increasing EU-NATO co-operation and overlap as Finland and Sweden are poised to join NATO and Denmark has decided through a referendum—which is very welcome—to end its opt-out from the EU’s common security and defence policy. The importance of the Military Mobility project hardly needs stressing; it enables
“the unhindered movement of military personnel and assets within … the EU.”
The other opportunity, besides the European Defence Agency and PESCO, might be for the UK to participate in European security and defence missions, as other third countries do. There is, of course, a chapter on cybersecurity as an example of thematic co-operation in the TCA. It is disappointing that this has, so far as I know, remained an unexplored opportunity. Can the Minister tell me if there is any more life in it now? Is there any prospect of the UK participating in the EU Agency for Cybersecurity—ENISA—which it can in fact request?
The noble Lord, Lord Liddle, mentioned the idea from President Macron of a political community wider than the EU. It may go nowhere, and it is partly designed to head off pressure from candidate countries for early membership. However, it is an olive branch and the kind of idea that offers opportunities for a third country like the UK, so I hope that it will get a positive response, even from the present Government.
Lord Hannay of Chiswick (CB)
My Lords, the timely, multi-headed debate of the noble Lord, Lord Liddle, so well introduced by him a few minutes ago, surely requires us not only to recall but to act on Keynes’s dictum: “When the facts change, I change my views.” This is because an awful lot of facts have changed in the last few months which fundamentally affect our national security interests, and it is no good ignoring the need to change the conclusions we may previously have drawn. To recognise the need for change does not require us to admit that we were wrong before; it is just common sense.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has quite simply torn up the post-Cold War rule book on European security we all agreed to in Paris in 1990, as well as some of the basic precepts of the UN charter. The new Cold War is not going to be over any time soon; the war in Ukraine is going to require much determination and unity with our NATO and EU allies, if it is to be brought to a conclusion that does not reward Russia for its aggression and does not merely represent a prelude to further hostilities. That will require hard thought about what we ourselves are prepared to contribute to a newly shaped European security order; it will require more resources, both military and economic. It is not a beauty contest between allies. Evidently, there are consequences and reordered priorities for those—at the time, I believed they were quite well marshalled—in the integrated defence review. There should be no shame or defensiveness about admitting that. Every one of our partners is having to reorder its priorities, and some—Germany in particular—are doing so already in a much more substantial way than we have yet done.
The Indo-Pacific tilt, of which the Government are so proud, is not rendered inoperable; China’s rise and ambitions warn against that. However, the European theatre, and countering Russia’s actions, have again become our top priority. I suggest that we need to pay more attention to Africa, where we should be working in close concert with our European partners and where, together, we could make a real difference. That brings any analysis to our relationships with the EU, its member states and within NATO. Instead of working ourselves up into a frenzy about a European army, or the supposed threat from President Macron’s strategic autonomy, we should recognise that the rise in defence spending right across Europe is precisely what we have been calling for over decades. We need, as a crucial player in European security—and, with France, one of Europe’s two nuclear powers—to be there shaping its form and content, contributing constructive thinking and co-operation, not barracking from the side of the pitch.
That sort of constructive approach is what our principal ally, the United States, would like to see us making. We really should not, yet again, fall into the trap of thinking that we know better than it does what is in the US interest; we have done that quite often in the past, and it has proved pretty painful. The reality is that these fundamental shifts in the security structures around us present us with both opportunities as well as risks and costs. However, those opportunities will be realised only if we show a decent respect for other people’s priorities and not just for our own. That was how NATO was successfully fashioned in the late 1940s by Ernest Bevin, and that is how the NATO of the 2020s will be strengthened if we have the wisdom to throw our weight behind it.
Lord Cormack (Con)
My Lords, it is a very great honour to follow the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, with his immense diplomatic experience. How right he is to remind us that principles are constant but policies have to change. We are all grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Liddle, for the thoughtful way in which he introduced this debate.
I am also grateful to my noble friend Lord Hannan and his characteristically charismatic imagination. He made one very important point that we must all recognise: it is 106 days since we woke to the news that the invasion had begun. A day after it, we assembled in your Lordships’ House and had a full-scale debate in which some extremely fine speeches were made. We now must assess the situation because, as he made plain, 106 days ago, we did not imagine that we would be quite where we are now. Indeed, all the talk was of a quick occupation of Kyiv and the probable exiling of the Government, which would force President Zelensky to seek sanctuary. His moving words—“I stay here”—galvanised Europe. Here we are today with the Russians shown up for what they are: those who would destroy wantonly and kill indiscriminately, but who have not succeeded in subjugating.
We must be realistic, and recognise what we can actually do with our limited capacities. That is why I called, on Tuesday this week, for an international conference convened by the UK on Ukraine. The noble Lord, Lord West, in his very sober analysis was right to remind us of our limitations. Of course we have done well, and I congratulate the Government, but I do not think that it is realistic to suppose that an honourable settlement demands a restitution of the whole of Ukraine as it existed in 2014—it demands a restoration of Ukraine as it was on 24 February 2022. That is absolutely essential.
If that does not happen, we are all defeated because the principles of democratic government, freedom of speech and all the things we treasure so much in this House will have suffered a severe rebuff which could be followed—and how right the noble Lord, Lord West, was to refer to this—by a greater confrontation with a greater power later this century. We could be in a very difficult situation.
I urge noble Lords to concentrate on ensuring that we give President Zelensky all he needs to achieve an honourable settlement, because what has happened over the last 106 days is destruction that will take years to repair. We have got to put a great deal of money into that repair. That will cost us, as will the food crisis that looms over the world because of the mining of the Black Sea, which is likely to plunge us into greater difficulties in the year ahead.
Above all, as several noble Lords have referred to, we need to have an adult and proper relationship with our friends and allies in the European Union, many of whom are also in NATO, because we do not want a divided West. We have a duty in this country to ensure that we do not create unnecessary difficulties. I sincerely hope that the recent reports of the introduction of a Bill to override the protocol are wrong; you cannot abrogate international treaties which this Government entered into willingly and urged Parliament to adapt, adopt and pass—and we did it willingly. You cannot set that sort of example of abrogating treaties and claim to be a moral leader in global Britain. We must mend our fences with our European friends and allies and go forward together to ensure that the values that we each seek to encapsulate in our democracies are preserved and not defeated.
Lord Browne of Ladyton (Lab)
My Lords, it is a pleasure to follow the noble Lord, Lord Cormack. I agree with him that we face an extraordinarily great challenge in the West, and those of us who subscribe to our values can only face that challenge together; there is no possibility of us doing so individually. I draw attention to my entry in the register of interests, particularly my chairmanship of the European Leadership Network, and vice-chairmanship of the Nuclear Threat Initiative. I join other noble Lords in thanking and congratulating my noble friend Lord Liddle for securing this timely and welcome debate and for the careful and balanced way that he opened it.
On Friday I chaired a meeting of the core group of the Euro-Atlantic Security Leadership Group. The EASLG, which was formed after the 2014 invasion of Crimea and Donbass, is sponsored by the European Leadership Network, the Munich Security Conference, the Russian International Affairs Council and the Nuclear Threat Initiative, and includes former and current officials and experts from Euro-Atlantic states. The EASLG is designed to test ideas and develop proposals for improving security in areas of existential common interest in these complex and difficult times. It operates as an independent and informal initiative, with participants from more than 15 countries who reflect the diversity of the Euro-Atlantic region, and it particularly includes both Ukrainians and Russians in this conversation.
Our focus was on Ukraine. I will draw the attention the House to two humanitarian challenges that we discussed, which otherwise are unlikely to surface in this debate but are a very strong reflection of the complexity of modern warfare, and also one issue of deep strategic importance that has emerged recently in this context. At this discussion we were joined by representatives of the International Commission on Missing Persons and the Halo Trust, which is a British and US charity set up to remove the debris left behind by war, in particular land mines and unexploded ordnance.
The estimates assembled by the ICMP from a variety of sources suggest that, since the beginning of 2014—when this war really began—more than 2, 500 people may have been kidnapped, abducted, forcibly disappeared or have gone missing from all levels of Ukrainian society, as well as from all sides of the political and conflict divide. This is now a weapon of war, as is moving people deliberately. Six million Ukrainians, mostly women and children, have left Ukraine, and many of these children are subject to disappearance because we do not know where all of them are.
The ICMP has been working in the war zones of Ukraine for years. It reported to us that the commitments agreed in an MoU between the Ukrainian Government and the International Commission on Missing Persons had not even begun to be implemented prior to the outbreak of hostilities on 24 February. Now, with a new legal framework, the whole situation has changed and, four weeks ago, the ICMP returned to Kyiv to make new arrangements. It has set up a forensic mission which was sent to Ukraine; it has completed its work and is now able to return with evidence and genetic samples from bodies so they can be identified. There is interest in setting up a data depository that could serve multiple objectives, including potentially the pursuit of war crimes, and the ICMP hopes to set up an office in Kyiv to support these efforts. My question for our Government is, in considering this significant challenge, what resources are we devoting to supporting it?
The Halo Trust has been at work in various locations in Ukraine since 2016, with 450 Ukrainian staff, mostly locally engaged. The programme has now shifted from eastern Donbass to the centre of the country. Survey and risk-reduction teams are on the ground, dealing with new threats, which include anti-tank mines that have been laid in farmland, making these fields unusable and exacerbating the food security issue that will affect a substantial part of the world. Until they are cleaned up properly, we will not even begin to reverse the damage that has been done. Ukraine’s state emergency services have, by Halo’s estimate, already done a huge amount of clearance. Many minefields have been partially cleared, but partially cleared is not good enough in this situation; they require additional time and cost to finish the rest. Halo, however, is working under pre-war restrictions in Ukraine, precluding the use of high explosives. This requires pausing to allow the military, which is not equipped to do this, to deal with the issue before Halo can move in. Halo is trying to lobby the Ukrainian Government to lift this restriction, and any additional support that our Government can give in their communication and discussions with them will be extremely important. I urge the Government to take on this and other issues that the Halo Trust is dealing with. I commend the Government for the financial support that they have given—as have the US Government—to Halo, but it will not be able to do its work properly unless some of these local blockages are removed.
I turn now to the strategic question, which I raised at Oral Questions on Tuesday. Security guarantees in some indiscernible form continue to be referenced as a major issue in ending the war in Ukraine. I understand that Kyiv is now in discussion with the Quad about them. On Monday, the Prime Minister met President Zelensky, and Number 10 briefed the press that they had discussed security guarantees. In March, there was apparently progress on this in the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia; in April, that process stopped. There are many questions about this. This is a fundamental issue for us. We need to be at the table if security guarantees that involve our country in commitments are being discussed in the resolution of this conflict.
The most important question for the Government is this: when will someone come to Parliament, explain what is being discussed and spell out the implications of these security guarantees, which are clearly already being discussed, for our future security and that of the West?
Baroness Meyer (Con)
My Lords, this is a most dangerous moment—as dangerous as the Cuba crisis of 1962 and more dangerous than the crisis of 1983. It certainly calls for cool heads. But the request by some noble Lords to revisit the integrated review is a rush to judgment. A 100-day war is a short war. This is not the moment to draw definitive conclusions. We have yet to see, for example, the full impact of the weapons systems we and the Americans have sent to Ukraine. I am the last person to question military men on military matters, but when I hear the cry that the UK needs more tanks and a bigger Army, I note that Ukraine, with far fewer men and tanks, has managed to humiliate the Russian army around Kyiv and Kharkiv. Size is not everything, as I should know.
Nevertheless, there are important things to be said. As the noble Lord, Lord West, noted, the integrated review got it right: NATO is the foundation of our security; Russia is the most acute physical threat; the US is our most important ally; and we should work closely with the EU on matters of defence. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine does not require these principles to be revisited. Far from it—it reinforces them.
Putin will make Russia an awkward and aggressive European neighbour for years to come. This is what we must plan for: a strategy for the long run which is both political and military. The French President has urged that we should not seek to humiliate Putin in any peace deal. Macron misses the point. Putin has already humiliated himself. His invasion has strengthened NATO, opening the door to its further enlargement, rained down sanctions on Russia’s head and revealed the Russian army to be as brutal as the Nazis.
Today, the West has a short-term and a long-term challenge. The first is to provide Ukraine with sufficient support to repel the Russian invaders without provoking a third world war. The second is to answer the question: how does this end? There is already much disagreement on who decides the terms of any peace deal. There are even some, including in Westminster, who would sign an agreement with Putin over Ukrainian heads. Yet, no matter how tricky the issues, the unity of the West—of NATO and the EU—is essential. We do not need competition between the two organisations, driven by the French.
The EU talks very loudly and carries only a modest stick. It was ever thus. As Janan Ganesh put it the other day in the FT:
“What began as a cohesive Europe … has become progressively mushier. The spectrum of policies from Estonia to France, to say nothing of Hungary, has widened troublingly.”
The conundrum is this: long-term European peace and stability cannot be achieved without Russia, as Henry Kissinger noted a few weeks ago, but Putin’s atrocities have put him so beyond the pale that many will refuse to negotiate with him.
In the end, the West will have to decide whether the purpose of its support is to put Kyiv in the strongest possible negotiating position with Russia or to see Russia defeated on the battlefield. I ask my noble friend the Minister: is there yet a settled view in government on this question? In which forum are these matters discussed with allies, given that the full NATO membership is prone to leaks?
Lord Sharpe of Epsom (Con)
My Lords, I respectfully remind noble Lords of the speaking limit. We are running very close to time anyway, and the Minister will not have very long if we do not all stick exactly to it. I apologise for interrupting the noble Lord.
Lord Harris of Haringey (Lab)
That is a slightly strange intervention, given that the noble Baroness, Lady Meyer, was well under time.
The whole House is grateful to my noble friend Lord Liddle for his, if I may say so, magisterial and wide-ranging introduction to this debate. I declare my interest as chair of the National Preparedness Commission, the aim of which is to improve the preparedness of the UK to reduce the risk of and mitigate the consequences of a major crisis or threat.
My noble friend and others referred to the integrated defence review, which now appears—with all due respect to those who say its tone was right—somewhat stale in the light of Russia’s actions in Ukraine. The Ukrainian resistance to a vile invasion has demonstrated what a well-led, resilient nation can do when faced with an existential threat. But how well prepared would this country be if faced with a similar attack, whether kinetic or hybrid? How resilient would our society be in responding to any other significant threat? We know from Covid how quickly what we would regard as the norms of society unravelled within a few weeks, with deserted town centres, lockdown, social distancing, mask wearing and so on. We are living in an increasingly volatile and uncertain world.
Eighteen months ago, the latest edition of the national risk register was published. It mapped 38 major risks facing the country, including environmental hazards, major accidents, malicious attacks—cyber-based and terrorist—risks arising overseas and, inevitably, animal and human diseases. Supply chain disruption and energy market instability are not mentioned; nor, since it pre-dated the invasion of Ukraine, is the threat of Russian retaliation by cyber or other means for the stance that the EU, NATO and, indeed, this country have taken.
That is why Chapter 4 of the integrated review, on building national and international resilience, was so important. It explicitly promised a “comprehensive national resilience strategy” based on a whole-of-society approach, involving individuals, businesses and organisations. This strategy has been expected for several months. Can the Minister tell us—this is the first of five specific questions I have for him—when it is likely to be published? I assume that it will address the three central questions of what we should prepare for, how much resilience is enough and how we finance the necessary investment.
A whole-of-society approach necessarily implies engagement with the whole of society. My second question for the Minister is: what plans do the Government have for this engagement? Specifically, how will the wider business community be informed, encouraged and incentivised to build its organisational resilience?
What about the general public? In 2018, the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency sent to every household in the country a revised version of its household preparedness guide If Crisis or War Comes. It asks the reader to consider what they would do if their normal everyday life was turned upside down. It cites climate change, external incidents and cyberattacks, but is essentially risk agnostic in the practical advice and information it provides. So my third question for the Minister is: do the Government plan such a publication here? If not, how do they envisage obtaining sufficient community engagement to deliver the necessary level of societal resilience to the threats we may face?
A familiar background to those broadcasts that we have all heard from Ukraine in the last few months has been the background sound of air raid sirens. I remember, as many noble Lords will, when air raid sirens were still placed on the top of large buildings in this country—as they had been in World War II. But that system was largely dismantled in the early 1990s. I am told that only about 1,200 remain and are used to warn the public in the event of floods in certain parts of the country. So, what is to replace them in the rest of the country?
In 2013, the Cabinet Office tested emergency alerts sent automatically to every mobile phone in designated areas. It is a technology that has been proven to save lives all over the world. Yet, nine years later, the technology has yet to be rolled out here. So, my fourth question for the Minister is: when will the promised cell broadcast technology—which incidentally is not the best technology to be using, but it is better than nothing—be available across the country and what advice is to be provided to the public on the actions they should take in response to an alert?
During Covid, communities had to come together to respond at local level. Councils and the emergency services worked with local community and voluntary organisations to support vulnerable people in the community. So my fifth question to the Minister is: how are those arrangements going to be sustained and built on as we go forward? This will involve increased funding and proper partnership. The lessons of the response by the Government and people of Ukraine demonstrate why whole-of-society resilience is so important. It is a wake-up call for us to look at our own arrangements. I hope that, when he winds up, the Minister will reassure us that this is central to the Government’s thinking, and that the fine words in chapter 4 of the integrated review will be turned into meaningful action.
Lord Dannatt (CB)
My Lords, I join in congratulating the noble Lord, Lord Liddle, on securing this important debate, which gives us the opportunity to look again at the integrated review in the context of unfolding events within Ukraine. It is a great pleasure to follow the noble Lord, Lord Harris, who has quite rightly focused on resilience in the context of his chairmanship of the National Preparedness Commission, and I have been very pleased to work with him as chair of the National Emergencies Trust.
It is on the integrated review in the wider security sense that I wish to focus my remarks this afternoon. I would suggest that our history since the end of the Cold War of security and defence reviews has been at best somewhat chequered. The options for change exercise conducted in the early 1990s I think is fairly described as something of a semi-camouflaged peace dividend taken by the Chancellor of the Exchequer, and across Europe, by other finance Ministers as well. We then went forward to the end of that decade with the strategic defence review of 1997-98; and that review in many people’s view was an extremely good piece of policy work. Unfortunately, it was holed below the waterline by not being fully funded by the then Chancellor of the Exchequer. Those risks came home to roost when we found ourselves fighting hot wars from 2003 onwards in Iraq and subsequently in Afghanistan.
We then went through a period of 13 years when we had no defence review whatever, until we came to 2010 when the coalition Government found themselves having to take rapid action to fill the black hole of about £35 billion in defence spending that they had inherited from the previous Government. The defence reviews of 2010 and 2015 were both again cost-cutting exercises, and when you have a cost-cutting exercise, you have to decide what costs you are going to cut. Quite rightly in my view, major capital equipment programmes, including—to the pleasure of the noble Lord, Lord West —the aircraft carrier programme, continued to be funded. But where there had to be savings, they had to come from our manpower cover. And where do you find most of the manpower? In our Army.
When the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Walker, was Chief of the General Staff and I was his Assistant Chief of the General Staff, the Army was over 100,000. A few years later when I was Chief of the General Staff it was still over 100,000. It is now plummeting to 72,000, and if No. 10 and the Cabinet Office had had their way in the early days of the integrated review, it could have gone down as low as 65,000 or 60,000. That I would suggest is unacceptable. So of course, against that background, we come to the welcome news in 2020 of a considerable boost to defence spending. But that boost was not a boost that was going to be made available to really increase our capability; it was largely an exercise in filling in many of the potholes that once again had accumulated.
However, the integrated review tried to take a broad-ranging look at our security, defence and foreign affairs requirements. I would suggest—as other noble Lords have said—that many of the conclusions of that integrated review were valid and reasonable, including, dare I say, the tilt toward the Indo-Pacific. As the noble Lord, Lord West, said, the Americans are very much approving of that because it is a little bit of a quid pro quo for them continuing to support us in continental Europe. But what the integrated review failed to take full account of was what we are now facing: the consequences of a resurgent Russia with a dictator who is determined to have his will in many ways.
So, we could then argue with ourselves, “Well, what should our response be?” Should we be rebalancing and changing some of the conclusions of the integrated review? I suggest that that is not the right approach to take. Many of the conclusions of the integrated review are reasonable, but what we failed to fully factor in was the requirement to be able to conduct a land war, or have a land capability that was strong enough to deter a land war, in Europe. Therefore, this is not to be a zero-sum game, with the Army, the Navy and the Air Force once again arguing against each other for a shift in priorities. Actually, it argues for an increase in our defence budget from 2% to 3%—an extra £12 billion to 15 billion a year—so that we can properly give ourselves the land capability that we absolutely require.
Our land capability is woefully lacking in armour; we are going to go down as it stands to 148 Challenger 3 tanks, and we have cancelled the Warrior tracked armoured fighting vehicle that can accompany them on the battlefield. What the war in Ukraine has shown once again is that artillery is a fundamental piece on the modern battlefield. We are woeful in the number of rocket and tube systems we have in this country. We have just given some MLRS to Ukraine: my goodness, we have few enough anyway, and where are the replacements going to come from? We need more armour, more artillery and we need more manpower; to have an Army that is going down to its smallest size in the last 200 years is completely unacceptable.
In conclusion, I would say that, when we look at the impact of Ukraine on the integrated review, there is a cautionary tale that we need to take note of. We need to look at that cautionary tale, learn lessons and, principally, ensure that an increased defence budget is argued for, and that much of that increased money goes into our land capability.
Lord Balfe (Con)
My Lords, in view of some of the things I am going to say, I would like to make it clear from the very beginning that I do condemn the Russian invasion. I think it was foolish and misplaced and, whatever else may be said, Putin clearly did not know what the result was going to be and seriously misjudged his own capacity.
I have been to Ukraine and to Crimea on several occasions, including before Crimea was taken over by the Russians. My conclusion on Ukraine is that there has been far too much western meddling. We have not managed to keep our hands off it for years, and we have not stood up to the Ukrainian Government. We have a Government who have conspicuously refused to implement the Minsk accords, and we have done little about it. Macron has done a bit, his predecessors did a bit and Merkel tried, but we have not had the Minsk accords implemented, and we have stood by while the Ukrainian Government have done such things as ban the Russian language—can you believe that they have banned the language of half of the population of the country?—and said virtually nothing about it.
I think Ukraine got itself into a position where it was being batted backwards and forwards by western-oriented policies. The real crunch came when Ukraine got rid of Yanukovych, because the country was a balancing act between the Party of Regions in the east and the parties in the west. It was never a clear dichotomy; it was never one area. I witnessed an election in Donetsk where over 90% of the votes were cast for the Party of Regions. I went round and questioned people, and all I heard was, “Well, it’s our party”. As one local person said to me, demonstrating some knowledge of British history, “It’s like the Valleys, you know. We all vote Regions; they all vote Labour”. I think there is a certain amount of truth in that.
When I used to lecture in European history, I used to say, quite truthfully, that you can rewrite your history but cannot rewrite your geography. The fact of the matter is that Ukraine is where it is, it is going to stay where it is, and we must devise a policy to dial down. There is far too much triumphalist rhetoric at the moment. What do we want to do with Russia? Do we actually want another Versailles? Are we going to suspend what is basically the rule of law in the West to confiscate assets? Of those assets in the West, are we going to distinguish between those of, say, Mr Bill Browder, who is supposedly our friend; Mr Roman Abramovich, who was our friend; and some people who have never been our friend? This is a slippery slope we are investing in if we start to suspend the rule of law so that we can have a rule of confiscation. We are almost back to the Versailles way of looking at the world, and it will not work. My friends in Russia—I do have some, and they are not at the top of the pile—are behind Putin. We have done what Hitler did in Britain: we have united the Russian people, and we need to be careful.
To close, I think we have to get a European peace conference, and we have to work out what we want. A justifiable line to draw is to say that we back the members of NATO and fully support Article 5. That is a line we can draw sensibly in the sand. We can say to the Russians, “So far, but no further” with the Article 5 guarantee. I have a lot of sympathy for the view of the noble Lord, Lord Liddle—I do not believe Labour Party Members are supposed to be my noble friends, so I will call him my ex-good friend—that we need to work with the Europeans. There is no way around that. Being in the same room as those Foreign Ministers is a great advantage. We need to get together with them; we will not get a peace in Europe without Germany and France. We need to get a common position—there is a European phrase for you—we need to get into the room, and we need to negotiate with the Russians from a position where they know that we mean it, but that what we mean does not humiliate them.
Lord Foulkes of Cumnock (Lab Co-op)
My Lords, I join in the warm thanks to my noble friend Lord Liddle for choosing this vital topic for our debate today, and for his magnificent speech in leading what has so far been a very interesting debate. It is just a pity that we have not heard the unique perspective of the noble Lord, Lord Lebedev, in this debate. He might have given us an interesting insight. I hope he would have joined in what is becoming a clear thread throughout the whole debate: overwhelming, unanimous support for the people of Ukraine in their fight not just for their sovereignty but for their democracy—and for our democracy as well, because they are fighting for us.
To follow up with a related topic, we have a scheme in place to assist the huge number of innocent civilians who have been displaced by the conflict. However, I fear that the Homes for Ukraine scheme remains far from perfect. Earlier this year, the BBC reported that up to 30% of registered would-be sponsors were single men over 40 offering to host single women in their 20s. More recently, the Guardian has highlighted the increasing number of refugees becoming homeless, and in many cases destitute, as a result of relationship breakdowns with their Homes for Ukraine hosts. This is dangerous and needs to be reviewed. The safeguards that we do have in place currently prohibit UK families from hosting under-18s who are travelling on their own, which means that Ukrainian children in this position currently have no route to this country. On both these issues, more must be done to ensure that we live up to our duty to shelter those fleeing the devastating effects of Putin’s brutal war machine.
We must also maintain and strengthen UK sanctions at least in line with our European allies. The EU is pushing for a total ban on oil imports. Our own consumption is relatively low compared to other European countries, so it is easier for us, but it is vital that we continue to phase out Russian oil. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently noted at Davos that the war has strangely—paradoxically—given us a unique spin-off opportunity to meet our carbon neutrality goals sooner than expected, so we should join the rest of Europe to push for united climate action and to have this double benefit.
The German Chancellor also stated that it is unlikely that Putin will consider negotiating for peace until he is certain of the impossibility of a Russian victory—a belief I share, incidentally—and it is therefore vital that we continue to honour our commitments to NATO and to ship more weapons to the courageous Ukrainian armed forces. I fear that we are being too selfish in Britain in trying to maintain our stockpiles. We should certainly renew them, but we are not shipping to the Ukrainians enough weapons and new ammunition, which they urgently need.
We must also remember that the effects of this war stretch well beyond Europe; Putin’s blockade on grain is hitting developing countries badly. Therefore, we should recognise that we must improve and expand our foreign aid programmes to mitigate the food crisis that this war has triggered. The sooner we get back to 0.7% of GNP, the more likely it is that we will be able to do that. If we do not, as recent history has shown, the aid vacuum left by Britain and the West will most likely be filled by an authoritarian power—particularly Russia or China—intent on cementing support for them in African countries in particular. I have seen this myself in Africa. I remind noble Lords that African nations such as Senegal and South Africa refused to condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine and abstained from the UN vote which demanded the full withdrawal of Russian forces. These countries are, or should be, our natural allies, but they have struggled to keep their economies afloat throughout the pandemic and rightly feel that we prioritised our own narrow interests during that time, and that we continue to do so.
Gordon Brown wrote a powerful article earlier this year in which he commented that our terrible treatment of Africa throughout the pandemic. allowing massive vaccine inequality, was as bad as under colonial rule. This is now an opportunity to try to right these wrongs and to stop the global creep of dictatorship.
In summary, to return to where I began, I say that collaboration with our allies in the face of Russian aggression has never been more important. I hope that the Minister—when he gets back—will commit himself to at least matching our European counterparts when it comes to sanctions and aid for Ukraine. I hope that he will agree that the UK should be mindful of the impact that sanctions and food shortages are having on developing countries. We are at the crossroads of a global battle of dictatorship against democracy where Ukraine is in the front line. Ukraine must win for the sake of us all.
Lord Alton of Liverpool (CB)
My Lords, the noble Lord, Lord Liddle, opened our debate today with a thoughtful and well-judged speech, and the whole House is grateful to him for initiating this debate.
Vasily Grossman once wrote:
“Every epoch has its own capital city, a city that embodies its will and soul. For several months of the Second World War that city was Stalingrad”.
In Britain, of course, it was the heavily blitzed city of Coventry. In the history of Putin’s war, that city will surely be Mariupol, and what savage irony that the descendants of the horrific brutality of Stalingrad have become its perpetrators and responsible for atrocities and war crimes. The barbaric onslaught of Mariupol led to besieged Ukrainian soldiers and civilians enduring weeks in the cellars and catacombs of the Azovstal steel plant. Putin has thought nothing about the criminality of unleashing wave after wave of death, destruction and damage including attacks on 400 hospitals and medical centres, killing civilians in railway stations and children in schools, mining fields and slaughtering animals.
Since 2014, as the noble Lord, Lord Browne of Ladyton, reminded us, even before the depredations of Mariupol, Bucha and the rest, some 14,000 Ukrainians had already been killed, with the illegal occupation of Crimea and Donbas merely a curtain raiser. Since February, the Kremlin’s rhetoric has morphed from the pretext of protecting Russian speakers to portraying their special operation as existential, with Ukraine’s enemies hell-bent on its very destruction.
Reports of Russian fatalities vary but, whatever their number, military and political leaders must surely be recalling that wives and mothers, especially the mothers of conscripted boys who were lied to and told their sons would not be sent to the front, turned public opinion against Russian wars in Chechnya and Afghanistan. They may well do the same again. Russian people and culture have so much that we can admire, but Putin is not part of that. In July 2021, in a 5,000-word essay entitled “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians” he set out his ambitions. Mercifully shorter than the 153,000 words in Mein Kampf, in which Hitler outlined his pernicious anti-Semitic Aryan ideology, Putin positions himself with the imperial princes and tsars and whips up paranoia around anti-Russian conspiracies and foreign plots, rebutting the legitimacy of Ukraine’s borders and sovereign status.
However, Putin’s attempts—and his decision to abandon for now his failed attempts—to capture the entirety of Ukraine have led to a concentrated, deadly, bloody offensive in Donbas. The capture of Sievierodonetsk would enable domination of the supply lines. Although this hardly smacks of victory, nor does it suggest defeat—diminished and humbled, yes, but it would be absurd to underestimate Russia’s ability to dig in for a protracted conflict or to learn from its failures.
We should also be realistic about fatigue and sustained sacrifice. Despite the many pledges made to the courageous President Zelensky, some of the promised armaments have not reached Ukraine. Nor should we assume that self-interest will not get the better of domestic politics in those western countries facing rampant inflation and skyrocketing energy prices, so our commitment in the United Kingdom must be enduring and sustained.
I have some questions for the Minister. Over the past decade, €1 trillion was transferred to Russia in return for fossil fuels, but Ukraine has the second largest gas reserves in Europe and gas storage space equivalent to 27% of the European Union’s gas storage capacity. What is being done to access that and, ultimately, about the replacement of dependency with sustainability?
Returning to an issue raised by the noble Lords, Lord Liddle, Lord Cormack and Lord Foulkes, I ask: what are we going to do about the grain inside Ukraine at present? In his reply to me today, the noble Lord, Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon, said that there were 25 million tonnes of grain. How are we going to get them out? Will we help with the integration of the Ukrainian railway system to enable exports? What are we doing to open the Black Sea ports to ships from neutral countries, many of which face starvation thanks to Putin’s new Holodomor, using starvation as a weapon of war?
I return to accountability and justice. On 19 May, the European Parliament adopted a resolution calling for prosecution of war crimes, aggression, crimes against humanity, and genocide. It called for a special international tribunal to punish those responsible for atrocities, including indiscriminate shelling of cities and towns, forced deportations, use of banned ammunition, attacks against civilians fleeing via pre-arranged humanitarian corridors, executions and sexual violence, all of which amount to violations of international humanitarian law. Are we working with the European Union to prosecute those responsible and, if so, how? Are we systematically asking every refugee who arrives here for eyewitness accounts and statements that can be used in prosecutions? Are we preserving evidence?
On security, important speeches were made by the noble Lord, Lord West—I agreed with it entirely—and my noble friend Lord Dannatt. Will Sweden and Finland be fully integrated into NATO and when? Is Germany meeting its welcome promise to pay its fair share for our common defence? With the horrendous consumption of weapons and munitions, are we ensuring their replacement to safeguard our own defence and security?
Exactly 40 years ago, I listened to Ronald Reagan here in the Royal Gallery. He, Margaret Thatcher and NATO understood that in every generation like-minded nations must be ready to make extraordinary sacrifices to defeat those who threaten them. The heroism which we have seen in Ukraine has given us a clear view of the barbarians once more at our gate. Putin’s war gives sharper definition to the threat posed to our way of life by a growing number of authoritarians, their regimes and ideologies—a threat that must once again be defeated.
Lord Campbell-Savours (Lab) [V]
My Lords, I thank my noble friend Lord Liddle for his initiative. If the first casualty of war is the truth, Ukraine is a fine example. It is hard to know who and what to believe. Ukraine’s Prime Minister, Denys Shmyal, claims that Putin’s forces have destroyed more than 15,000 miles of roads, hundreds of bridges, 12 airports, 100 school, college and university campuses and 500 medical facilities, and contaminated 150,000 square miles of land with explosive devices. Other reports claim 90,000 cars destroyed, and 34 million square metres of residential buildings wrecked at a replacement cost of $30 billion. The World Bank estimates $60 billion in infrastructural damage. The IMF predicts a 35% and rising contraction in the economy, with 11 million people displaced and 6.5 million refugees escaping violence while leaving loved ones at home. We have 8.5 million on either food assistance or exceptional health support. We have the disruption of education for 3.5 million children and a collapse in family income, leaving millions of pensioners unable to move while trapped. That was the position a few weeks ago.
The Kyiv School of Economics forecasts a potential war cost of $600 million—four times the national GDP. These are cash cost estimates. Then we have the loss of life: 22,000 in Mariupol alone. Wider estimates speak of an additional tens of thousands of civilian and military war dead. If that is not enough, we have President Zelensky’s spokesman demanding more weaponry when he states:
“If you ask me, I would say far too slow, far too late and definitely not enough. We are not happy with the pace of weapons delivery”.
Then there is the cost here at home: escalating fuel and food prices, and worrying inflation with additional millions in need, particularly in low-income households. We have economic destruction throughout Europe with the potential to destabilise all populations. I say, when it comes to war, never underestimate the potential of the unpredictable, which in this case is a distinct possibility. Yet all I hear is cries for more war, more weapons, more sacrifice and a refusal to even talk against a background of escalating threats from Moscow.
We need a period of reflection. Personally, I have never ducked a need to face up to decisions on war when national unity was required. I have supported war in the Falklands, and in the case of Iraq visited Washington repeatedly, calling for intervention, but this is different. This war is riddled with contradictions and inconsistencies, and the silence of the British public begs questions as to the level of real support, indeed concern, out there. I beg the Government to start thinking outside of the box and reflect on the route to a solution and ending the conflict. Humiliating a proud Russian people in whose name a tyrannical Putin is pursuing a brutal, inhuman and crazed war is no answer.
The man has lost all reason, he is desperate as to his legacy and is acutely dangerous. We need a post-Putin strategy which facilitates the development of a more democratic Russia and its joining a world of more civilised nations. There was a possibility in the early 2000s, but it never materialised. Compromise all round is now needed. I plead: do not destroy the Russian economy in a flawed process. Humiliating Germany in the 1920s brought a world war, and history can repeat itself. We cannot win overall militarily; equally, neither can the Russians—they can only damage their economy.
I say: start the talking, and with an open mind. When the Minister in a recent reply insisted on what appears to me to be total capitulation by Russia, my heart sank. The Minister should listen to the noble Lord, Lord Lamont of Lerwick, who has supported calls for early negotiation to end conflict. He should listen to the noble Lord, Lord Skidelsky, who in a recent debate set out a comprehensive set of proposals for the resolution of the conflict. He should listen to the speech of the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Craig of Radley, who is to follow me now, and who, while supporting military intervention has heavily qualified his remarks on the issue of preparedness.
Finally, I can only repeat my own calls, made before the war started, for protectorate status for Donetsk and Luhansk within Ukraine under international monitoring arrangements and, additionally, the disbanding and withdrawal from theatre of the Azov and associated battalions and the Donbass militia. I believe all this was possible under an agreed settlement before the war started. It is still possible to deliver as Russia’s war losses mount up and make compromise increasingly possible. At least we should start the talking. If history judges that we have fought a war—call it a proxy war if you want—to secure less than what we would have secured by way of negotiation, we will be condemned by our descendants as little more than party to an historic error. I say: listen to the speech of the noble Lord, Lord Balfe, which was very impressive today.
Lord Craig of Radley (CB)
My Lords, I too join noble Lords in congratulating the noble Lord, Lord Liddle, on obtaining this debate and on the robust way in which he introduced it.
In previous debates on Ukraine, I raised the issue of sanctions and in particular, what assessment the Government have made of their effect on Russia and on Putin. In answer to my question on this on Tuesday the Minister said that they
“have had an inhibiting effect in relation to Mr Putin’s ability to mobilise his forces.”—[Official Report, 7/6/22; col. 1078.]
I doubt that Ukrainians defending the Donbass would agree.
Historically, sanctions imposition has often been a political response to a “do something” cry falling short of war. A most significant distinction between all other sanctioned countries and those against Russia is that the former could be dealt with by Theodore Roosevelt’s diplomatic truism,
“Speak softly and carry a big stick”,
but Russia, unlike all others, also has a big stick.
Viewed from the Russian side, this is the second time that they have been sanctioned in the past decade. American sanctions following the annexation of Crimea in 2014 were aimed to make Russia a pariah state. Should sanctions become an existential threat to Russia itself, the risks of their response, being a nuclear power, cannot be downplayed or ignored.
As the noble Lord, Lord Skidelsky, argued in his recent excellent essay on this topic:
“Economic sanctions against Russia are supposed to be an alternative to war, but they can reasonably be expected to change the Kremlin’s behaviour only by becoming tactical components of the conflict.”
Ukraine’s supporters do not intend to make or threaten war themselves directly against Russia, but without such, the true value of sanctions becomes unclear. As the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee report in May 2007 on The Impact of Economic Sanctions concluded:
“Economic sanctions used in isolation from other policy instruments are extremely unlikely to force a target to make major policy changes.”
Foremost among “other policy instruments” listed was the threat or actual use of force.
The assessments the Government have made do not show, even after 100 days of conflict, any great reduction in Russia’s war-fighting capability. Bearing in mind that some nations are still trading actively with Russia and many European countries are still paying Russia for oil and gas—no doubt with pricing increases—are the sanctions achieving the result required of a major change in Russia’s “special operation”? Not yet, and do not hold your breath.
Imposing sanctions is not a zero-sum game. Individuals and businesses that are no longer able to trade with Russia will not necessarily be able to make good in other markets what they were achieving in Russia. They will suffer losses, which will increase with time. The financial and banking sanctions sound severe, but workarounds are already evident. The rouble is trading near its pre-war rate. Rising oil and gas prices have increased the cost of living for all here in the UK.
More needs to be said publicly to explain what sanctions achieve. Russia’s combat forces remain active, even if their tactics are less than competent. So where does the balance of advantage lie? Should even more sanctions be imposed, with the attendant risks if Russia feels itself threatened, or has a limit been reached?
What plan, even thought, has been given to an exit strategy? No sanctions can be indefinite. As long ago as 1999, a government review of sanctions policy stressed the principle:
“Sanctions should … have clear objectives, including well-defined and realistic demands against which compliance can be judged, and a clear exit strategy”.
The present sanctions targeting falls far short of such a principle, which, as well as anti-corruption and Magnitsky ones, should have greater exposure in an integrated review.
Looking to the future, when some settlement has been achieved and peace restored—I have little confidence that this will be very soon—what support can be given to the inevitable restructuring needs in Ukraine? Can assets impounded from individuals or Russian banks and businesses be switched to benefit the restoration funds that will be required? Is that going to need legislation, and would that be internationally legal? What steps have the Government in mind or are they taking to study and to implement these post-conflict needs?
Lord Berkeley (Lab)
My Lords, I congratulate my noble friend Lord Liddle on a masterful speech, which set the tone for a very interesting debate. I want to talk about transport in Ukraine, in particular rail transport, which is the backbone of the Ukrainian economy because it is a very large country, as we know. Whether it is transport for defence reasons, evacuation or keeping the economy going, most goods are carried by rail. I declare an interest as a board member of the European association ALLRAIL and a former member of the European Rail Freight Association.
Other noble Lords, including my noble friend Lord Foulkes and the noble Lord, Lord Alton, talked about the importance of corn. Ukraine produces some 40 million tonnes of corn, plus fertiliser and sunflower oil. It is a major world supplier. This is—or was—nearly all exported via the Black Sea, and the railway system in Ukraine was very good at doing that. As that route is likely to be blocked for the foreseeable future, we have to think about how to get that corn out, probably by rail and probably, most of it, towards the west. That represents a massive increase in demand and capacity not just in Ukraine but in neighbouring countries, particularly Poland. I am in touch with the railway operators in Ukraine and am told that 6,300 kilometres of track have been damaged by the Russians already, with 41 bridges, as well as tunnels, demolished.
We could say that we are on a war footing. There are problems in Poland, not with the war, of course, but largely with bureaucracy. Getting the railways across Europe to work seamlessly as one team, finding wagons, finding locomotives and making sure that the tracks are repaired is a massive undertaking. I give credit to Network Rail and the Government for giving quite a lot of support in the form of equipment, including Bailey bridges and the like, for repairing bits of railway that have been bombed, but we need to do a great deal more if we are to enable the massive increase in grain exports that is needed if we are not going to have famine in the world, as my noble friends have said.
I was a bit surprised yesterday when the noble Lord, Lord Benyon, said:
“The truth is that we are almost self-sufficient in wheat”.—[Official Report, 8/6/22; cols. 1150-51]
Well, that is all right for us, but what about the rest of the world? I hope that we can look much more widely.
There are many problems. I have received a long list, which I will pass on to the Minister, of ways in which the West, the UK, Europe and United States—which is very keen to do so—can help in making sure that the railways can expand this massive capacity. Noble Lords will know that the track gauge is different in Ukraine—it is the same as in Russia. There are many ways of transferring freight from one gauge to another—I could bore noble Lords for hours on the subject, but I shall not—but it needs investment, wagons and a reduction in bureaucracy, which sadly is still there in Europe. The railways across that part of Europe and Ukraine need to work as if they are on a war footing now. That might seem a bit over the top, but we should get rid of all these regulations. There is a regulation in Poland that says than any wagon coming from Ukraine, if it is transferred, has to have its axle box checked for temperature every 50 kilometres, so the train has to stop. Is that really necessary when up to 20 million tonnes of corn are waiting to be exported?
I am in touch with United States railroad operators as well, and I hope they can help, but, whether it is by way of a task force, a conference or whatever, all the railway administrations that can do it need to help the Ukraine Government help themselves and to support Poland and other countries in making sure that freight can move as quickly and as seamlessly as possible to the ports, mostly in northern Europe, where it is needed if we are to get it away and help the economy of Ukraine and the rest of the world. At the moment, they are all saying, “We can’t do this, because who’s going to pay us?” The question of who gets paid and for what will need urgently addressing. I suspect that it was done before and at the beginning of the last war—I was not in a state to have much of a view then. I will send the Minister a long list of requests from Ukrainian Railways, and I hope that we can help with that, but let us hope that we can encourage everyone to go much faster to increase the capacity of rail export.
Viscount Waverley (CB)
My Lords, the broad conclusions of the more general integrated review were correct, but reference should also be made to the defence Command Paper. I propose to the Government that both be updated regularly to reflect changes in circumstances.
I am concerned that this war of attrition masks the fact that Ukraine, from Russia's perspective, is a means to an end and not a strategy in isolation, representing an attempt to craft a new world order with a reconstruction of its role in international affairs. Events are the consequences of 20 years of strategic thinking on Russia’s part. It follows, therefore, that the Euro-Atlantic community should frame a Russia strategy in the longer term, and not as a problem of the last century, looking forward not backwards, with all its future implications.
Russia has returned to its traditional role of an aggressive, expansionist state, and an effective response to this remains to be shaped. A senior British defence official said in 2016:
“Russia is a reality on the world scene and we cannot go on pretending it is not”.
That is correct, with all the opposing ideology, interests and explicitly differing values. A new generation of Russian leaders will change little. We must work to understand more than I suspect we do or face sleepwalking deeper into the quagmire.
The scale of the reconstruction required defies comprehension, with President Zelensky estimating in April that $7 billion monthly, totalling $600 billion, is required. From where is this to come and with what conditionality? A future Ukrainian state awash with money and flooded with arms could itself become a challenge.
HMG will be only too aware also that democratic politics can usher in a new guard. With elections supposedly due in a year or so, there will be many from a military background who will enter politics and, depending on outcomes, bring with them a differing approach. I must ask the Minister, therefore, what HMG’s assessment of that situation is. Are election assistance and process planning being conducted, or are we in active consultation with the electoral commission in Kyiv about a delay to a future election?
On the world stage, it would appear that Russia is hell-bent on building an Iran-China-India axis, in addition to quietly making inroads on relationship building in South America and Africa, with the Indo-Pacific also in its strategic planning. I have been calling around, and it has become clear that a large number of states wish to remain neutral, which is not good.
A vision of Russia would appear to be multiregional, now strengthened by the Arctic route becoming more realistic. That will be of particular appeal to China, which is already investing in securing land for its future infrastructure and military needs along that route.
London is acting in important ways in Ukraine, but very much in the now. Now and looking ahead are essential, and in this context the integrated review is right: Moscow will be a challenge for London through the 2020s. The UK has positioned itself as Moscow’s enemy 1.5, with our strategists having to manoeuvre through a minefield of British policy and determine how global Britain will manage a ubiquitous Russia. It is legitimate to ask what kind of threat Russia might pose to the UK. Moscow has not yet used its strategic assets in this war, but we should be prepared for an intensified cyberthreat.
On a practical note, I am reminded of the loss of the depth of expertise in the FCDO on Russia and the Russian language. We urgently need to build a cadre of Ukrainian expertise and language capability.
In the search for common ground with Russia, while always being explicit that London has very many policy and value disagreements with Moscow and vice versa, urbanisation, climate change, infrastructure, and issues of the 2030s, including how to manage ageing social disruption, might be areas of commonality of challenges.
The war in Ukraine has reignited great power competition. If we are ever to move forward, the institutions that govern the world order must adapt to new ways of thinking and new ways of working.
Lord Desai (Non-Afl)
My Lords, I too thank the noble Lord, Lord Liddle, for introducing this debate, but it seems that for a while we were fighting not just the Ukraine-Russia war but the EU war as well, between Brexit and no-Brexit. Let us suspend that war for the time being and concentrate on the Ukraine-Russia war. What we do about Brexit is another issue. I speak as a remainer.
The most important thing is to understand and decide that the only solution to this war is that Ukraine regains its entire old frontiers and is re-established as a country safe from external aggression. If this is to be realised, we cannot go down the road that France and Germany, for example, have been proposing, of a peace in which Ukraine would lose its eastern Russian-speaking zones and be left with only western Ukraine. One principle that we established when we established the United Nations in 1945 was that national borders are sacrosanct and cannot be arbitrarily violated by one power set against another.
The problem will last much longer than people think. This is not going to be a 100-day war but probably a 1,000-day war, if not longer. Europe has a habit of going to war quite frequently. We went to war in 1914 until 1918, and then, within another 21 years, in 1939 we went to war again until 1945. We then thought that we had peace but again, we are back at war in Europe in 2022. This is because there are certain unresolved national issues in Europe. Russia has always felt that Ukraine somehow should be part of Russia and not an independent country. I had a colleague at the LSE who taught Russian history. When asked what his biggest dream was, he said, “An independent Ukraine.” At that time Ukraine was not independent. It then became independent temporarily and now it is threatened with control by Russia.
One thing we must make clear to the Russians and the Ukrainians in this battle is that we will stand by Ukraine until it regains its frontiers. Like many other noble Lords, I am in touch with some Ukrainian groups, who send me emails about what their idea of liberation is. We must make that the first priority. Neither our energy supplies nor our wheat supplies nor the debt position of third-world countries should gain priority over the world getting together to give Ukraine its borders back and some future guarantee of safety from another external attack by Russia. Some noble Lords have talked about a new world order, and one very important thing to recognise is that the United Nations has failed in this respect. The United Nations Security Council was built up as an oligarchy of big powers—the permanent members—and we saw the farce whereby Russia could not be indicted for its attack because China used its veto to protect Russia.
The UN will have to be repaired at some future date because right now it is not an effective body. We are left with the EU and the US. The western alliance is divided about how to deal with the Ukraine crisis. Some western European countries would like a quick, patch-up treaty, which will leave Ukraine divided in two and then Russia will go away. I think that is a mistake. We ought to insist that the UK will aid Ukraine for as long as possible, and that our aim is to guarantee that we will stand by Ukraine until the end, just as we stood in the Second World War.
Lord Stirrup (CB)
My Lords, in this most welcome debate on the impact of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine we have heard some very thoughtful contributions. It has been made clear that the Ukraine war is not a little local European difficulty; it is a global crisis. The effect of food shortages and the associated price increases threaten widespread famine in Africa. The destruction of energy supplies is contributing to increased global inflation and the overall economic shock will affect living standards around the world.
However, its significance goes beyond the economic. It goes to the heart of how the world is to be ordered in future, how nations are to deal with one another in the years ahead, and how much stability we can expect to see in the international community. This should condition our thinking about the UK’s role in the crisis. Our strategic objective should be to ensure that Putin’s invasion is widely seen to have failed and that such an illegal use of force is fraught with uncertainty and danger for the aggressor. This will not, of course, entirely eliminate the threat of future conflict, but it will at least give pause to those who contemplate starting one. The question then becomes, how is that strategic objective to be achieved? The answer is in two parts—military and economic—but in the time available today I shall restrict myself to military issues.
We must of course continue to support the Ukrainians in their valiant efforts to deny Putin his objectives in their country. They have already defeated his attempts to seize their capital and split their nation in two, and they must now frustrate his latest goal of achieving total control of the entire Donbass region. President Zelensky naturally wishes to regain control over all his nation’s territory. That may not be a realistic short-term objective, but neither is it necessary in order to deny Putin his aims. Given continued Ukrainian resistance, Russia will be unlikely to advance much further and will be tied down in an attempt—almost certainly doomed —to pacify the area it occupies. However, this relies on the Ukrainians continuing to receive the military wherewithal to counter the kind of artillery-heavy attritional attacks that the Russian forces are now mounting.
More widely, we need to relearn some old lessons. The first, as I have remarked before, is the unbounded capacity of the future to surprise us, usually in very unpleasant ways. International crises and the armed conflicts that sometimes flow from them have seldom been anticipated, nor have we been well-prepared to meet them; and every time such a crisis comes to an end we seem to assume—or we certainly act as if we assume—that it will be the last. It never is. Not long ago, some observers were questioning the continued relevance of NATO. They usually did so without considering what sort of organisation might replace it, bearing in mind that we had long ago forsaken the idea of national defence in favour of collective security. Occasionally the EU has been put forward as an alternative focus for European defence, despite the fact that many European nations have declined to make the level of investment necessary to sustain NATO itself, let alone to develop independently the very expensive strategic capabilities currently provided by the United States.
The UK’s recent integrated review, while acknowledging the challenge still posed by Russia, indicated a tilt more towards the Asia-Pacific region, but it was less than clear what that actually meant. How great a tilt? How much of that tilt was to be diplomatic, how much economic and how much military? We have now been rudely reminded that the peace and security of our own continent should always be our top priority. It is also clear that those European nations most directly threatened by Russia put their faith in NATO for their defence, not in the EU. Therefore, at least for the foreseeable future, NATO must remain the bedrock of European security. However, to be credible, NATO must ensure that it has the plans and capabilities to defend its peoples effectively. It needs to be able to operate in the so-called grey zone of warfare but it also needs hard combat power, and power that can be sustained.
The war in Ukraine has reminded those who may have forgotten of the appalling rate at which munitions are expended in high-intensity conflict. For too many years, we and other NATO nations have taken too much risk with our weapon stocks. They were already inadequate and they have, rightly, been depleted further because of the need to supply Ukraine. We now need a concerted effort to bring our munition stocks, across all three services, not just back to where they were but to where they should have been in the first place, and we must press our NATO partners to do the same. That will mean careful planning and much greater investment, not just in defence budgets but in the wider industrial capacity to provide and sustain those weapons, which is currently inadequate. That will not be easy in a period of economic stress but, while the conflict in Ukraine has created great human suffering and threatens to cause much more, it has also changed the world that we have known for the past two decades. We cannot now return to business as usual. We must recognise as much and adapt accordingly.
Lord Purvis of Tweed (LD)
My Lords,
“it has always been the case that our security at home is best advanced through global co-operation, working with institutions that support that, including the EU … This cannot be a time when any of us allow competition between partners, rigid institutional restrictions or deep-seated ideology to inhibit our co-operation and jeopardise the security of our citizens … where we can both be most effective by the UK deploying its significant capabilities and resources with and indeed through EU mechanisms—we should both be open to that. On defence, if the UK and EU’s interests can best be furthered by the UK continuing to contribute to an EU operation or mission as we do now, then we should both be open to that. And similarly, while the UK will decide how we spend the entirety of our foreign aid in the future, if a UK contribution to EU development programmes and instruments can best deliver our mutual interests, we should both be open to that … So we very much welcome the EU’s efforts to develop Europe’s capabilities in this field. We need to keep open all the options which will enable the UK and the EU to collaborate in the most effective way possible … We are keen for this to continue”.
Every single word that I have said so far is a direct quote from Prime Minister Theresa May to the Munich Security Conference on 17 February 2018. Those plans had a degree of prescience as they now seem obvious, but they were reversed by her successor—in the same party —just a year later. We have a good basis for reviewing the integrated review again by looking back at what Theresa May said in 2018, which we also debated in this House.
There are some clear examples of that move away, and I shall cite two. The first is the EU Military Mobility project, moving military equipment across internal EU borders, which is very bureaucratic and difficult although I am sure that noble and gallant Lords will say it is a fundamental aspect of mutual defence. The US and Canada are involved in the EU Military Mobility plan to simplify this, but not the UK. Why is that?
Third-party countries like Chile contribute personnel to EUFOR, or Operation Althea, the EU peacekeeping force in Bosnia, which is UN mandated. However, after Brexit, the UK withdrew all personnel from the Balkans, a critical and intense area that our Prime Minister has highlighted, and one of the collateral areas of the Russian invasion. I ask the Minister: will the Government consider this? We now have the European defence fund—€8 billion between 2021 and 2027. The UK would have been a leader in securing funding opportunities for research, development and increasing member states’ capabilities, but we are not participating in this. Can the Minister write to me about EU programmes or operations in which third countries can participate but we choose not to?
As the noble Lord, Lord Liddle, said, there should be common ground. I agree with all noble Lords who commended him very strongly not only for bringing this debate to the Chamber but for the extremely comprehensive way that he introduced it—he covered this thematically and progressively, and it set the frame for the debate. He also said very clearly that security, development and prosperity here at home are so intertwined with that our nearest neighbours and indeed those further afield that are like-minded, through NATO in particular.
In his comprehensive remarks, the noble Lord, Lord Liddle, referred to Ernest Bevin; from these Benches, we would say that there is no difference between us in commending that foresight. In studying the early days of NATO, I was struck that, for Ernest Bevin, it was in many respects the successor organisation to the Brussels Pact between the UK, Belgium, France, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. This European mutual defence agreement was put in place in 1948 to encourage the Truman Administration to go wider and support NATO. So we should never see this debate as purely about one rather than the other; the concept and the delivery are integrated.
The noble Lord also referenced his very frequent visits to and involvement with Ukraine, as have many others in this debate—I have visited Ukraine and the Verkhovna Rada on a number of occasions. The noble Lord, Lord Alton, touched on the civilian element of this: over 4,000 civilians, including 300 children, have sacrificed their lives for the cause of self-determination and their wish to live in a democratic country. This is on top of all those brave individuals who have signed up or been called up to the forces. However, it is a depressing fact that we are likely to see scores more people—hundreds of thousands—dying of hunger, as the collateral damage of Putin’s aggression. This is on top of the world facing increased dangers through the climate emergency and the growth in fragile states. The noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, indicated the very imbalanced way that Covid has been managed across the world. We see the warnings that 8 million to 13 million people will suffer acute hunger in the Horn of Africa and central Africa as a result of this conflict.
However, as the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, also indicated, we cannot take for granted that all countries see our thinking and perspective, especially those that are developing or are in fragile, sensitive and complex areas, such as the Middle East. In the week of the Russian invasion, I was in Baghdad and then Beirut. Subsequently, I went to central Africa, where I will be next week, before I go to the civic forums of the CHOGM in Kigali. I heard, and no doubt will hear, differing perspectives on not only the conflict but the consequences of it. This is why the noble Lord, Lord Cormack, is absolutely right: the UK’s reputation and trustworthiness is critical in this debate if we are to lever further support for UK interests, given that it has been indicated that this will be a long-term situation.
It is wrong that the UK has cut support from 0.7% to 0.5%—of course it is—and, while it is positive that the UK has committed 0.18% of GNI to Ukraine support, which we support and endorse, it is still not clear whether that is offsetting cuts to programmes in other countries. It is in addition to the 0.5% cap? Or will it be squeezing out other support that is critically important, especially when we see growing poverty, increased instability, the lack of action on climate change in many areas, the growth of mercenary groups in Wagner and also, depressingly, the growth and the recruitment of terrorist groups such as Daesh.
If we are introducing legislation that breaks the rule of law here at home, we cannot be the strongest in calling for the rule of law abroad. That is really important, as the noble Viscount, Lord Waverley, indicated, when we see India, China and others taking a different course from us. We need to lead by example not only militarily and economically but morally and on trust.
As the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Craig of Radley, indicated, we are engaged in hybrid warfare, where our sanctions and economic measures are markedly different from those in the past. They are now designed not only to deter actions but to change strategic and military campaign decisions. We need to debate this soberly and clearly, with regard to the exit that needs to be in place. That exit will be at a time of increased fragility, with the climate emergency and other pressures. So, we do need to revisit the integrated review in practical ways, and measures suggested by my noble friend Lady Ludford. As I said earlier, when we review this—perhaps not to the extent of the German Zeitenwende: the watershed moment they have indicated—we should start by going back to 2018 and that speech of Theresa May.
Lord Collins of Highbury (Lab)
My Lords, I too would like to thank my noble friend for initiating this debate and for his excellent introduction. I too emphasise that we are all at one in our support for Ukraine; across the House, both Opposition and Government are absolutely at one. The noble Lord, Lord Hannay, reminded us that there are some very good things in the integrated review. The fact that we had the integrated review is a positive thing too. Joined-up government is absolutely essential.
Let us remind ourselves what the integrated review was about. It highlighted the need for the United Kingdom to play an active role in ensuring that open societies and economies can flourish across the world by championing free trade and global co-operation, tackling conflict and instability and standing up for democracy and human rights. Just how will the Government address these issues? The recently published international development strategy, promised in the review, made no explicit prioritisation of this. Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine has highlighted how misguided many of the Government’s strategic assumptions about foreign policy have been.
As we have heard in this debate, the integrated review wrongly de-emphasised the importance of European security. Boris Johnson described it as a British “tilt to the Indo-Pacific” and scarcely mentions Europe beyond NATO. Certainly, there is no mention of the Russian aggression against Ukraine that was started in 2014.
Let us also think: Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February but, four months later, there is no action to reboot our UK defence plans. As we have heard, threats to Britain are increasing. As the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Dannatt, said, along with my noble friend Lord West, the Government have cut the Army by 10,000 troops; they commit UK forces to be “persistently deployed worldwide”, yet cut the full fleet of Hercules transport planes.
All democracies must respond to the newly realised threats to national and European security. That is why we argue that Ministers must rectify the flaws in the integrated review; must review defence spending; must reform defence procurement and must rethink Army cuts. They must reinvigorate UK leadership in NATO—and we have heard about that leadership at its inception. Now it is time for us to return to that leadership.
Also on European security, the key recommendations of the Intelligence and Security Committee’s report on Russia remain unimplemented. Tackling and challenging Russia’s political, economic and military reach is imperative to European security, and the work must start at home. The United Kingdom must stop acting as a hiding place and service industry for criminals and their money. A key part of defending democracy and the international rules-based order is through international co-operation, whether it be NATO or other forums such as the G7, the United Nations or the Commonwealth. The Ukrainian conflict forcefully reminds us that almost no nation can do anything alone and that Britain is a bigger force for good in the world when we act with our allies.
Brexit is done, no doubt, but the EU is emerging as an organised force in geopolitical security, and President Biden has affirmed US support for
“strengthening the NATO-EU strategic partnership”
and for a
“US-EU dialogue on security and defence”.
It is in Britain’s national interests to forge post-Brexit arrangements to work with, not within, the EU. Britain is NATO’s leading European nation, and we should not allow this status to be damaged or deflected by Boris Johnson pursuing his “Indo-Pacific tilt”. The first priority for Britain’s Armed Forces must be where the threats are greatest, not where the business opportunities lie.
At the end of this month, NATO nations will set their strategy for the next decade, with all democracies now facing new threats to their security. The NATO Parliamentary Assembly’s recommendations for the new strategic concept stress the central importance of resilience in our democracies and societies. It is the way we can counter hybrid warfare and shore up support for our increased defence commitments. In the run-up to Madrid, democracies and their civil societies will rightly demand a say in the priorities set for NATO for the next decade. Yet this is a closed process, confined to Governments, which is why Labour is asking the Government to open up the UK process to create a common vision for NATO. I urge them to lay out to the public the UK’s view of NATO’s strategic goals. The UK needs to be the driving force, driving debates as NATO gives a greater focus to defence, alongside deterrence and diplomacy.
Although our current focus is rightly on Ukraine and Russia, this is far from the only global crisis. Many countries have experienced almost non-stop conflict over the past decade. Our support for Ukraine, including humanitarian assistance, should not come out of overseas development assistance. As my noble friend Lord Foulkes said, the poorest in the world should not have to pay the price for Russian aggression. There are currently multiple crises of nutrition that will only get worse with increasing conflict and the negative effects of climate change. As the noble Lord, Lord Cormack, reminded us, east African countries are dependent on Ukraine and Russia for 90% of their grain imports, and parts of the region are also experiencing severe drought.
Rather than restoring the United Kingdom’s development expertise, targeting aid on poverty reduction and prioritising climate, conflict and health funding, the Government instead prioritise a naive aid-for-trade approach that simply will not work. This is an approach that takes us back to the 1980s and the corruption scandals of the Pergau dam. I hope that the Government will reconsider a much swifter return to the 0.7% target and using the aid budget to help those most in need, not trade favours with big corporations.
Ukraine has survived because its people—of diverse faith, age, ethnicity and language—have a national story of hope to unify them. Their hopes are simple: prosperity, security and respect; to be a democratic country at peace with its neighbours, within a rules-based global order; and those are Labour’s hopes for the British people.
The Minister of State, Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (Lord Goldsmith of Richmond Park) (Con)
My Lords, I thank the noble Lord, Lord Liddle, for tabling this important debate. I am grateful to all noble Lords for their insightful contributions, which go to the heart of our country’s role in the world at this turning point in European history. I will try to respond to all the points raised, but there were a lot, and if I miss any, I will follow up in writing.
Putin’s unprovoked, illegal war is a reprehensible, premeditated attack on Ukraine and on the principles of self-determination and the rule of law. It is now clear that Putin cannot break or subjugate Ukraine. The Ukrainian people have shown that they will resist. Their courage in the face of the Russian forces’ brutal tactics is, simply, an inspiration. The UK and the international community stand together with our friends in Ukraine against this naked aggression. We stand together for freedom, democracy and the sovereignty of nations around the world.
As the noble Lord, Lord Campbell-Savours, articulated, the human toll of Putin’s war is colossal, from the levelling of cities such as Mariupol to the slaughter, rape and torture of innocent civilians in Bucha. Almost a third of Ukrainians have fled the invading forces, and nearly 16 million people are in need of humanitarian support. The economic damage from the invasion has rippled across the globe, as a number of noble Lords have pointed out, in the form of rising commodity prices and more. Russia’s blockade on Ukrainian grain exports is fuelling hunger and having a catastrophic impact on some of the world’s most vulnerable people.
The UK will continue to play a leading role in the international response to this invasion, working intensively with our allies and partners. I note the slightly gloomy description from the noble Baroness, Lady Ludford, of the UK’s place in the world on this issue. But it feels to me that her depiction, or her understanding, of where we stand in the world in relation to Ukraine, is very much at odds with the reality. It certainly seems to be at odds with the views expressed by the leader of Ukraine and so many Ukrainian people. Our support for this effort includes backing Ukraine to defend itself against Russia through £1.3 billion in military support.
In response to the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, we are the third-largest humanitarian donor nation, providing £220 million of assistance, and that includes more than £110 million to the UN and the Red Cross and £25 million in matched funding to the Disasters Emergency Committee appeal. As Russia’s invasion has threatened global food security, we have announced emergency humanitarian assistance to vulnerable regions such as the Horn of Africa and Yemen, and we are working to co-ordinate with partners through the new G7 Global Alliance for Food Security.
The noble Lord, Lord Alton, made the point extremely well, if I may say so, about Vladimir Putin’s use of starvation, I think he said, as a weapon of war. He is right also to say that we believe that at least 25 million tonnes of grain have been locked up as a consequence, not by accident but as a deliberate policy decision. Clearly, releasing that grain has to be a priority, not just for the region but for far beyond. We are working very closely within the G7 and with the global alliance to figure out how we might do that; it is not straightforward.
The noble Lord, Lord Berkeley, made an important point about the need for infrastructure to be maintained and, where necessary, repaired. I am grateful to him for citing the efforts of Network Rail in helping to repair some of that key infrastructure. We are looking for opportunities to do more. It is certainly the Government’s intention to find ways to do more to repair that infrastructure. I am not sure we can do much about Poland’s regulations around axle temperature, but the point is well made, and if we have an opportunity to persuade our friends to look at that regulation, I am sure we will do so.
We are also working with international partners, including the US, the EU and development banks to support Ukraine’s economy. The UK has given £74 million to support the Ukrainian Government’s day-to-day spending. In answer to the noble Lord, Lord Alton, there is a £100 million, three-year package to reform energy supply in order to secure alternatives to Russian oil and gas. UK Export Finance, our export credit agency, has £3.5 billion available to support trade with Ukraine, helping UK exporters and Ukrainian buyers access the finance they need. When the PM was in Kyiv, he announced an additional $500 million in World Bank guarantees to support Ukraine’s economy, bringing UK guarantees for World Bank lending to almost $1 billion.
In response to comments by the noble Lords, Lord Alton and Lord Browne, I simply say that they are right to say that Russian forces have, indisputably, committed war crimes, including intentionally targeting civilians in the manner we heard from a number of noble Lords. We are working with partners to hold those responsible to account for their actions. We led efforts to refer the situation in Ukraine to the International Criminal Court, which has now secured support from 42 other countries. We have also committed to provide the court with further resources to help secure evidence and conduct prosecutions, starting with a £1 million contribution. In April, the Foreign Secretary announced a £10 million fund to help expert organisations support victims of the conflict, including, of course, survivors of sexual violence.
In response to the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, on the visa situation in relation to Ukrainian refugees, I was looking up the numbers while he was speaking, and our two visa schemes will allow an unlimited number of Ukrainians to find safety in the UK, working through either family members or UK sponsors. As of 1 June, we had issued more than 120,000 visas in total for the Ukraine family scheme and the Homes for Ukraine sponsoring scheme. More than 65,000 Ukrainians had arrived in the UK by that date.
With our allies, we continue to impose the largest and most severe economic sanctions Russia has ever faced. Since the invasion, we have sanctioned more than 1,000 individuals and more than 100 entities. I note the comments and questions by the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Craig, around the efficacy and, indeed, the purpose of those sanctions. There is compelling evidence that we are succeeding in cutting off funding to Putin’s war machine. We are hitting his corrupt cronies and targeting the outlets that are spreading disinformation. We will continue to ratchet up the pressure until Ukraine prevails.
The UK and our allies support Ukraine’s efforts to secure a settlement that delivers a sustainable peace in line with established principles of European security and in line with Ukraine’s aims—a point made very powerfully by my noble friends Lord Cormack and Lady Meyer, and the noble Lords, Lord Alton and Lord Desai. It is important to emphasise that any outcome of the peace process that will eventually ensue needs to ensure a full Russian withdrawal. Above all, whatever is agreed upon must respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. That matters—and I note the comments by my noble friend Lord Balfe—as the bottom line here is that we are not discussing an ambiguous event within Europe; Russia is engaging in an act of aggression, an act of violent expansionism, against all international norms and law. There is no justification whatever for what is happening, and we need to keep that in mind as we discuss and agree actions that this country needs to take in order to support Ukraine.
The continued support of the UK and its partners will help ensure that Ukraine is able to negotiate from a strong position. This includes committing to ensuring that Ukraine is in a strong position to deter future Russian aggression. We and others are discussing with Ukraine how we can best do this, as the statement by Ukraine and the G7 leaders made clear on 8 May. I say this in response again to the noble Lord, Lord Browne, who also mentioned the Halo Trust, which is an extraordinarily valuable organisation. We have directly raised with Ukraine the issue of mining and the new specific demining challenges faced by the people of Ukraine. We are asking for guidance on how we might be able to provide support. I cannot tell the noble Lord any more than that at this point, but I can tell him that this is an issue we take extremely seriously, and we will do what we can.
The noble Viscount, Lord Waverley, made a really important point about elections. All I can really say, without wishing to diminish the importance of his question, is that right now it is understandable that for President Zelensky, stopping this conflict must be the overriding priority above all else. The noble Viscount talked about a lack of Russian expertise within the Foreign Office. I am afraid that I do not know the figures, but I will use his comment as an excuse to heap some praise on Melinda Simmons and her team, who are based there in extraordinarily difficult circumstances and are doing an amazing job. The noble Viscount is nodding, as I expected he would. They are in a very difficult position and are doing this country proud.
Putin’s acts of aggression confirm the trends and threats we set out in the integrated review. This includes challenging international rules and norms; forming geopolitical blocs that cut across our security, economic and democratic institutions; deliberately targeting vulnerabilities within democratic systems; and using a growing range of instruments to undermine and coerce others. As the noble Viscount, Lord Waverley, and the noble Lords, Lord West and Lord Collins, pointed out, the integrated review did identify Russia as the most acute threat to security in the Euro-Atlantic area, and it set out our commitment to deterring and defending against that threat. This includes action through NATO, combining military, diplomatic and intelligence assets in support of collective security. We also undertook to support others in eastern Europe and beyond, including in Ukraine, where we pledged to build the capacity of its armed forces. Like my noble friend Lady Meyer, the noble Lord, Lord West, and others, I do not agree with the assertions made by some noble Lords that the war in Ukraine is in any way at odds with the conclusions we drew in the integrated review—on the contrary.
Turning to the invasion and our response, the Foreign Secretary set out three key strands to our approach. The first is military strength, and, in the words of President Zelensky:
“Freedom must be better armed than tyranny.”
Ahead of the NATO summit in Madrid, we are working to strengthen the alliance and to arm and support Ukraine. Inaction would be the greatest provocation to Russia; in our view, this is a time for courage, not caution. We are also ensuring that the western Balkans, and countries like Moldova and Georgia, have the resilience and capabilities they need to maintain their sovereignty and freedom.
The second strand of our response is to use all the economic levers we have—trade, sanctions, investment and development policy—in a much more assertive way. This is how we will take on ruthless aggressors like Putin who use patronage, investment and debt as a means to control and coerce.
The third strand—which I point out in response to the noble Lord, Lord Hannay—is forging deeper global alliances against those who seek to harm us. Partnerships like NATO, the G7 and the Commonwealth are absolutely vital, and increasingly so. We will continue strengthening our bonds around the world, including the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force, the Five Eyes partnership and our AUKUS partnership with the US and Australia. Of course, Europe remains at the heart of these global alliances, and we share the same interests and hold the same values as our neighbours across the continent. We recognise the important role played by the EU in the peace and prosperity across Europe, and we will find new ways of working with the EU on shared challenges. We will co-operate with the EU on matters of security and defence as independent partners, as a number of noble Lords have emphasised. We often hear about post-Brexit isolation but that is the not view shared by people outside this country, not least in relation to Ukraine but on other issues. The UK is now unambiguously seen, including by our friends in the European Union, as a world leader on climate and the environment. These are also top priorities in the integrated review, as emphasised again in the international development strategy.
We share an unwavering commitment to European security. We have been working closely with countries across Europe, including those most exposed to Russian aggression on NATO’s eastern flank. I will use this opportunity to respond to points made by a number of noble Lords, including the noble Lords, Lord Liddle, Lord Collins and Lord Hannay, who I felt were ever so slightly dismissive of the Indo-Pacific tilt. I do not have time to go into detail and perhaps we will have another debate on this issue soon, but I would suggest that they and others will not be so dismissive of that tilt in the years to come, given everything we know about geopolitics in the region.
We are doubling the number of UK troops in Estonia as part of NATO’s enhanced forward presence. In Poland we have deployed around 800 service personnel in response to the Ukraine crisis. This rapid response underlines the UK’s resolute commitment to NATO, which, as the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, has said, is needed now more than ever. More widely, the UK has contributed to every NATO mission through the provision of forces, headquarters, capabilities and funding. We were also the first ally to offer offensive cyber capabilities to NATO. The UK consistently meets the 2% commitment to defence funding and we encourage allies to meet and, where possible, exceed that target to ensure that NATO is ready for future threats; where they do, we celebrate and acknowledge it.
I will respond briefly to the noble Lords, Lord West, Lord Dannatt and Lord Collins, who raised the issue of investment in our own capability. They make a good point and I do not think anyone is going to argue with them on the need for greater investment. We are increasing defence spending by over £24 billion over the next four years—the biggest investment in the UK Armed Forces since the end of the Cold War. As part of military support that has been provided to Ukraine, the Prime Minister announced on 3 May £300 million specifically for electronic warfare equipment, including GPS jamming and a counter-battery radar system.
More broadly, we continue actively to make the case for democracy in Europe. Last month, the Foreign Secretary attended the annual Council of Europe Foreign Ministers meeting. She praised the council’s decision to expel Russia but appealed for it to be more pro-active in tackling authoritarian regimes, countering disinformation and promoting democracy. We have also been developing new agreements with key European partners, and that includes the joint declaration on foreign and security policy with Germany, and similar new foreign policy co-operation agreements with the Czech Republic, Lithuania and Norway. This all goes hand in hand with our close co-operation with the EU. We stand shoulder to shoulder, resolute in our determination to face up to Russian aggression. The Foreign Secretary’s attendance at the EU Foreign Affairs Council in March, alongside the US and Canada, illustrates that.
In response to a question put to me by the noble Baroness, Lady Ludford, I can tell her that our co-ordination on sanctions is having an impact. I mentioned earlier the effects of those sanctions on Putin’s war machine, but we have acted in concert with the EU against Russia and Belarus, hitting those who are supporting that war machine and Putin’s aggression. Since the outset of our independent sanctions policy, we have worked closely with the EU, regularly consulting with its institutions and member states. In response to the noble Lord, Lord Alton, we continue to look for ways to work with partners to hold Russia to account. With the EU and the US, we recently announced the creation of the Atrocity Crimes Advisory Group. This will help to co-ordinate our efforts on the ground to ensure that those responsible for committing violent atrocities in Ukraine are held to account.
Beyond Ukraine, we are supporting efforts to build resilience across the European neighbourhood. As part of the Quint and together with the EU, we are working with western Balkan countries to strengthen democracy and the rule of law and to tackle crime and corruption. We are also working with the G7 to build the region’s energy, security and resilience. In answer to a point well made by the noble Lord, Lord Purvis, where we can encourage the EU to complement NATO, as opposed to compete with it, we absolutely should. In the interests of our future and our security, we must remain open to all suggestions and all initiatives, wherever they arise from, including within the European Union. I am going to write to the noble Lord, as he requested, because I only have two minutes left, with examples of UK co-operation with the EU defence programmes—those we have signed up to and those we have not. I will not be able to answer that now, I am afraid; he will understand why.
In conclusion, allow me briefly to reflect on and strongly welcome the unity shown across the House, and indeed across the Commons, since Russia invaded Ukraine more than three months ago. We have been united in condemning Putin’s brazen aggression and the despicable war crimes that Russian forces have committed. This debate, too, has shown that we are fundamentally united across the House on the need for the UK to work together with our partners to support Ukraine and protect European security. Her Majesty’s Government remain resolutely committed to doing that, and I would like to end by thanking once again the noble Lord, Lord Liddle, for tabling this debate and all noble Lords for their contributions.
Lord Liddle (Lab)
My Lords, it was a privilege to introduce this debate and it has been a great pleasure to listen to the many and varied contributions we have had, even from very distinct perspectives such as those of my noble friend Lord Berkeley on the railways and my noble friend Lord Harris on national resilience. I was particularly interested in and am always eager to listen to the very thoughtful contributions from noble and gallant Lords. One of the biggest influences on me when I worked in No. 10 Downing Street was Charles Guthrie, Lord Guthrie of Craigiebank, from whom I learned an enormous amount and whom I was very privileged to know.
I will make just two big points. First, I am not trying to reopen the Brexit debate; I am talking about co-operation with the European Union. I was glad that the noble Lord, Lord Goldsmith, said that the Government were open to new initiatives. That is good. The noble Lord, Lord Purvis, is absolutely right that the way NATO was created was first, fundamentally, from a bilateral security treaty between Britain and France—that is what Bevin started with, and then he extended it to Benelux—and then NATO came in. European security must have a European dimension to it. No one picked up on my point about the risks of how the politics of the United States might change to Europe’s disadvantage in the coming years. That is a very serious problem. So I am not trying to reopen an old debate, I am just trying to emphasise that Europe must be a vital part of NATO, and I am very strongly pro-NATO.
Secondly, the noble Lord, Lord Goldsmith, gave a very comprehensive reply, but I asked him three questions which he did not really answer. The first was whether the Government would reconsider the integrated review. I rather gathered from what he said that they do not think that is necessary—that the integrated review can stand, despite the change in circumstances. I would be very grateful if he could confirm that in a letter to me.
I also raised a point about the funding of defence equipment, given what we have done for Ukraine—are we taking a hit on that in our own defence capacities or is the Treasury willing to open up the coffers to ensure that our defence is not weakened further? I would like a response on that if possible.
Thirdly, our longest and oldest ally is France. Therefore, when President Macron makes interesting suggestions about how European defence and co-operation should develop, it is the duty of the British Government to take him seriously and offer their own response to the points he is making. I wonder what that is and I would be very grateful in future if the Minister would tell me—and I beg to move.
Northern Ireland Protocol: First Treasury Counsel
(2 years, 6 months ago)
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The Advocate-General for Scotland (Lord Stewart of Dirleton) (Con)
My Lords, with the leave of the House, I shall now repeat in the form of a Statement the Answer given by my right honourable friend the Minister for the Cabinet Office to an Urgent Question in another place on the Northern Ireland protocol. The Statement is as follows:
“As the Foreign Secretary set out to the House on 17 May, to respond to the very grave and serious situation in Northern Ireland, the Government intend to bring forward legislation to fix the Northern Ireland protocol. As she also set out, the Government’s view is that such a course would be lawful in international law. In line with long-standing convention, we do not set out details of the internal deliberations regarding that view. But we will be setting out further detail about the Government’s legal position in due course.”
Baroness Smith of Basildon (Lab)
My Lords, this is a hugely important issue and I have to say it requires calm diplomacy rather than a rerun of the internal markets Bill debacle. Noble Lords will be aware of the reports that Sir James Eadie was specifically asked not to give a legal opinion on the compatibility with international law of the Government’s proposals, but instead to assume there is a respectable legal basis. I say to the noble Lord: does he understand the concern that Ministers opt not to ask the questions that they think they will not like the answer to?
I think we all understand and appreciate the Government’s long-standing position that internal legal advice is not published, but will the Minister give his personal assurance that Members of this House will have access to all the information that is needed whenever this Bill is brought forward? And can I ask that the Government urgently consider reviving the reading rooms process that was established during the Brexit process.
Lord Stewart of Dirleton (Con)
My Lords, I am grateful to the noble Baroness for stating at the outset that she is aware of the terms of the convention. We do not discuss legal advice, but we have set out clearly the Government’s view that this would be lawful in international law. To go further I fear would risk trenching upon that convention. In relation to the specific question about the reading room, I shall consult with colleagues to see whether or not that position will be returned to in relation to this Bill.
Lord Purvis of Tweed (LD)
My Lords, if the noble and learned Lord had been in the previous debate, he would have heard of the serious concerns about our reputation around the world on this issue. He is also aware that his predecessor, in his letter of resignation, said that he was unable to reconcile his role as a law officer with the Prime Minister’s policy objectives. He said:
“I have endeavoured to identify a respectable argument”
on the basis of international law. We do not want “respectable arguments”; we want our reputation to be held in the world and we want law to be honoured. On the basis of the noble and learned Lord giving factual information about which he can say, have any MPs been given a draft text of the Bill to be consulted on?
Lord Stewart of Dirleton (Con)
I am not aware of that, but I would say that the Government abide by the convention that legal advice given to the Government is not disclosed, so I would be surprised if that had taken place.
Lord Hannay of Chiswick (CB)
My Lords, the Minister has stated the convention about not providing the advice the Government receives on legal matters. That is interesting, but it happens to be exactly contrary to what was said. Perhaps if he looks at Hansard he will see that, when this matter was debated shortly before the Recess, the Government spokesman said quite categorically that the Government would be bringing forward a separate document setting out the basis for the legal case. He has just contradicted that.
I have a second question. Could the Minister, perhaps just now, cite word by word any part of the Northern Ireland protocol that authorises either party to it, the European Union or the United Kingdom, to unilaterally depart from its terms. Could he please cite that?
Lord Stewart of Dirleton (Con)
My Lords, the terms of the protocol specifically anticipate that it will change in line with developments. I refer the noble Lord to Articles 13(8) and 16 in that regard.
Lord Cormack (Con)
My Lords, one of the themes of the debate we have just had was that if we are to be looked upon as a moral leader in the world, it is completely wrong to abrogate treaties that we have signed, particularly when the same Government who signed, negotiated and commended the treaty to both Houses then wish to abrogate it. Is my noble and learned friend aware that there is deep disquiet among many Conservatives in both Houses at what is being proposed?
Lord Stewart of Dirleton (Con)
My Lords, to rehearse the answer I gave to the previous question, the protocol itself comprehends the possibility of its amendment, depending on circumstances as they arise.
Baroness Ritchie of Downpatrick (Lab)
My Lords, there is deep disquiet in Northern Ireland about undermining the very institutions of the Good Friday agreement. I come from a different position from that of the DUP, but I have to say that a majority of people in the Northern Ireland Assembly want the protocol to remain, with mitigations. What exact consultations took place between the Prime Minister and the First Treasury Counsel in relation to this new legislation, which is considered a breach of international law?
Lord Stewart of Dirleton (Con)
My Lords, first, the Government’s intention is to protect the operation of the protocol. As the noble Baroness is aware, the Northern Ireland Executive has not been re-formed. It will not be re-formed in the face of such disquiet as currently exists. The Government intend that the protocol should be protected by the measures that they will bring forward, and they will bring forward simultaneously a statement of their legal position.
Lord Campbell of Pittenweem (LD)
My Lords, I was present on the occasion to which the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, referred, and I expressed an interest in the opinion apparently provided by the Attorney-General to the Government. We were assured that that opinion, or something similar, would be made available. If the noble and learned Lord checks Hansard, he will find that to be the case. But we should not really be surprised, because this is a Government of recidivists. They are very happy to offer the alternative of breaching the law. Indeed, they set out to do so in the internal markets Bill but had to retreat with their tail between their legs. The noble and learned Lord, like me, was reared in the Scottish legal tradition. He will remember his Roman law: pacta sunt servanda—promises ought to be kept. Why are the Government departing from this fundamental principle?
Lord Stewart of Dirleton (Con)
My Lords, pacts are indeed there to be kept: pacta sunt servanda. The Government are not departing from a legal principle; they are acting in good faith to preserve the protocol for the benefit of all communities within Northern Ireland.
Viscount Waverley (CB)
My Lords, is the Minister aware that senior representatives of Sinn Féin were recently in this building, setting out their vision? At the very least, they put a case that I felt the Government should respond to—will the Minister care to do so now?
Lord Stewart of Dirleton (Con)
Not being privy to what was said, I regret that I cannot.
Lord Liddle (Lab)
First, will the Minister consult the noble and learned Lord, Lord Keen of Elie, on his opinion of the legality of what the Government are now proposing? I really recommend that he does so. Secondly, does the Minister not see that there is a clear distinction between changing the protocol under its terms and Britain legislating independently to breach an international treaty?
Lord Stewart of Dirleton (Con)
My Lords, once again, the Government are confident in their position that what they propose will not breach international law
Baroness Altmann (Con)
My Lords, I sympathise with my noble and learned friend the Minister, but I echo the concerns raised by my noble friend Lord Cormack and will ask a brief question. When the Prime Minister insisted that there would not need to be any checks between Northern Ireland and the rest of Great Britain on goods entering Northern Ireland, where did he expect those checks to take place?
Lord Stewart of Dirleton (Con)
My Lords, the intention of the Government is to restore the situation envisaged at the framing of the protocol whereby equal importance was given to east-west and to north-south transactions.
Baroness Ludford (LD)
My Lords, the Minister referred to the absence of the Executive. It was expected that the publication of the Bill would be an incentive to create the Executive, but I understand it is being reported that the DUP has said that the publication of the Bill will not make any difference; it wants to see it implemented. How many steps have to be taken?
Lord Stewart of Dirleton (Con)
My Lords, we are in contact with all shades of opinion in Northern Ireland, trying to move forward the position whereby the institutions of devolved government can be restored and the process of normalising relations between communities and between the United Kingdom and its international partners can proceed.
Travel Disruption at UK Airports and Ferry Ports
(2 years, 6 months ago)
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Lord Davies of Brixton
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what steps they intend to take to alleviate the problems, including queues, cancellations and delays, being experienced by travellers at airports and ferry ports in the United Kingdom.
Lord Davies of Brixton (Lab)
My Lords, clearly, this is a topical issue that is causing much concern to many people. I am sure that all noble Lords will have read reports in the press, heard interviews on the radio and seen scenes of chaos at airports on the television. For example, yesterday’s Daily Mail reported:
“No end in sight to holiday nightmare. Airlines ‘resign themselves to summer of chaos’ and Heathrow boss warns of 18 MONTHS”—
its emphasis—
“of misery as passengers face more mayhem today with huge queues and bag collection in ‘disarray’”.
Today’s Daily Mail reported:
“The airline chaos causing travel misery for Britons plumbed new depths today as a video showed baggage falling off an overloaded conveyor belt and left strewn across the floor in Manchester Airport’s arrivals hall.”
However, we must remember that this is about individuals and families, not generalities. We should not lose sight of how this has impacted on people who were just hoping for a holiday. Tuesday’s Mirror quoted Ali Haynes, who arrived at Luton Airport with her partner and five month-old baby three hours before their easyJet flight to Palermo was due to depart, only to learn that the plane had been grounded. She said:
“We’re now stuck in Luton departures with no information on what next. Holiday ruined.”
The Financial Times reported on Michael Norman, who tried to fly back to Manchester from Faro, Portugal, on Sunday. He said that easyJet did not tell passengers that their flight was cancelled until they were at the departure gate. He said:
“We have no idea, it is as if they abandon you … they should not be flying people out on holiday if they cannot fly you back”.
The Daily Mail again:
“Furious mother posts picture of her exhausted six-year-old daughter while stuck in Cyprus after Tui cancelled family’s flights TWICE”—
again, its emphasis—
“as experts warn travel chaos is set to get even worse.”
Now, there are many horrendous things going on in this world. For example, there is the suffering of people in Ukraine, Yemen, Afghanistan and elsewhere overseas and, at home, there is the increase in poverty with families being forced to choose between food and heating. However, I make no apology for raising the issue with the Minister. In the context of what everyone has gone through during the Covid pandemic, we can all sympathise with those who are thwarted in their simple and understandable wish to take a break, typically somewhere warmer and sunnier than they might expect at home. While most of the coverage has focused on those on holiday, it is entirely possible that there has also been an adverse effect on business travellers, who increasingly use budget airlines.
In raising the question I am not really interested in conducting a post-mortem on who has been to blame for this situation. I am not even that interested in hearing about what action the Government have already taken to address the problems. What I would like to hear from the Minister is some empathy with travellers and an indication of what further action the Government might take to help alleviate the distress that is still arising daily—particularly when we are told by none other than John Holland-Kaye, CEO of Heathrow Airport, that, as things stand,
“it will take 12 to 18 months for the aviation sector to fully recover capacity”.
Is there really no end in sight? With my flights booked for later in the summer, I really should declare an interest.
We therefore need to be clear about the Government’s analysis of the reasons for the problems that travellers face, and then what more should be done about them. I think it is reasonably clear that an inadequate response to the recovery of foreign holidays is at the heart of the problems. We know about the impact of the pandemic on the global aviation industry. The Government did the right thing in supporting aviation, but it was not enough: tens of thousands of jobs were cut. In the first lockdown in particular, the industry made significant cutbacks in its workforce. The problem then was the uncertainty about any recovery in travel; no one knew how long the pandemic would last or how it would turn out, so it was unclear until relatively recently when things would get better for the travel industry.
It has been suggested that the airlines should have predicted that there would be surge in demand when the world opened up again. But there were various false starts, and it is not surprising that the industry acted, as it has turned out, with caution. Now, however, it is clear that, with vaccination, fewer border restrictions and no sign of a more dangerous variant, things are returning to something like normal. Flights are returning to levels not seen since 2019 and, as a result, the understaffed airlines and airports are struggling to cope with the increased demand.
It appears that the biggest problem is the recruitment that is needed to fill the gaps in staffing required to meet current demands. Airlines and airports need countless different jobs to operate, from security guards to cabin crew, but there are widespread staff shortages across much of the economy following the pandemic. Many people who previously worked in the industry have also found better jobs elsewhere, without the pressure of shift work and relatively poor pay. It has also to be said that there is no doubt whatever that the problem in recruitment in the UK has been exacerbated by Brexit. I am not trying to reopen the issue of Brexit, at least in the context of this debate, but as a result, there are simply fewer people available to work in the industry. To the extent that it is possible for EU citizens to work here, the terms of employment that they now face because of the additional restrictions make the work far less attractive.
I hope that the Minister will not strain our credulity by claiming, like one of her colleagues, that Brexit has improved the staffing situation. I hope that she will admit the problems and, accepting that Brexit is done, look at what scope there is within the agreements that have been reached to adjust the rules on employment to alleviate the staffing problems. We know that there are also problems with the rate at which new employees can be recruited. Some of the jobs are sensitive, requiring lengthy background checks and training.
My question today is: what more will the Government do to alleviate this situation, or are they effectively saying that everything that could be done has been done and that it is really up to the airports, the airlines, the ferry ports and the ferry companies to solve the problem?
The Lord Bishop of Chichester
My Lords, I am grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Davies, for initiating this important debate. I speak from the experience of working to support the chaplaincy of Gatwick Airport—I was glad to hear the Minister speak so positively of her experience of coming through it recently. However, like so many other parts of the aviation industry, the airport was dealt a harsh blow by the Covid pandemic. Many staff who were foreign nationals, though receiving furlough payments, went back to their home countries and have not returned to work in the UK. This affected the security department, hospitality industry and the hotels especially, and it has had a devastating effect on the economic life of the town of Crawley, which was already in receipt of investment from the towns fund as part of the Government’s levelling-up programme.
It has been hard to replace this pool of experienced workers, nor has it been easy to recruit new staff locally, especially for specialist jobs that require a significant period of training to meet a necessarily high standard of security. The Government have provided some assistance by amending airport security regulations, but there is a plea from Gatwick that Ministers do more to ensure that there is sufficient resource to process security and ID checks as well as manage the border and process passport applications.
I understand from my colleagues at Gatwick Airport that the salaries it offers in recruiting new staff are comparable to those in other airports and in other sectors, comparing well with salaries for posts of similar responsibility in the NHS, education and the service sector. We found that the package at Gatwick is sufficiently attractive to draw new staff from the police force and from British rail management, so also depleting staffing in those important services.
New staff, especially younger recruits, are experiencing verbally threatening behaviour in their working lives which they have not experienced before and find very disturbing. This rarely seems to be addressed in their training, with the result that many people just do not turn up for their shifts or have even resigned, thus creating more staff shortages at short notice on terminal concourses.
This is an indication of a serious shortage of able people from whom to recruit in order to sustain a service industry that cannot offer working from home, which has become the norm since the pandemic. Those working in the transport and hospitality aspects of tourism continue to look to government for investment in recruitment, training, maintenance of quality and delivery of service.
In this context, I urge serious consideration for the role of chaplaincy in an airport, which is comparable with a hospital, prison or school, where those served are not simply the users but the staff, who face significant challenges. Airport chaplains minister to distressed travellers as much as they contribute to sustaining the morale, professional aspirations and quality of life of staff in such places, in order to deliver the best possible service. Salaries for chaplains represent good value for money and should be required for best practice on the part of any company running one of our airports.
The successful presentation of the UK to foreign travellers is formed by first impressions. Emerging from a well-run airport at Gatwick, they will find that Network Rail has done good work on improvements to Gatwick rail station, but the quality of trains on offer is then poor. Apart from two Gatwick Express services an hour, the other trains have no provision for luggage and are often already crowded and very uncomfortable. The mix of suburban and international travellers is not a good start to a happy visit.
Viscount Younger of Leckie (Con)
My Lords, I am sorry to interrupt, but the noble Viscount, Lord Stansgate, is next.
Viscount Stansgate (Lab)
My Lords, I thank the noble Viscount. I support my noble friend Lord Davies of Brixton and congratulate him on securing today’s debate and the expert way in which he introduced it and laid out the context for what I hope will be its main purpose: finding out the Government’s view of what is going on and what, if anything, they are trying to do about it. It is a pleasure to follow the right reverend Prelate. I have learned a bit about chaplaincy services and, as someone who goes on some on the trains to which he has just referred, I know exactly what he means about the mix of commuter traffic and people who are visiting this country, sometimes for the first time.
Today’s debate is very timely. It is not very popular with the Government Benches so far as I can see, but I understand that it is still very timely because we all know that it has been triggered by what we saw happening over Easter and over the recent Whitsun half-term; and, in the summer that lies ahead, these problems are likely to cause even more chaos. I do not know if the Minister happened to see the news last night; I should think that from time to time she does. At the moment, there is no end of scenes of luggage and queues, and more news about flights being cancelled. In fact, it is not difficult to film huge queues at airports these days, and we have also seen photos of air crews helping to get luggage off planes because there were not enough baggage handlers.
My own experience, for what it is worth, has not been as bad as that. However, on a recent flight back to the UK, the plane landed on time but there was then an inordinate delay while finding enough ground crew staff to find it a berth and take the luggage off. Maybe that has happened to other noble Lords. As for the queues that can arise at passport control, as happened at Heathrow on 24 May, I have known the sheer frustration at seeing large numbers of automatic entry gates seemingly shut because of a lack of staff. I thought that the whole point of these e-gates was to make returning to the UK streamlined and quick for British citizens. No wonder we are told that some airlines are now taking action to cancel even more flights because they know that in the current circumstances there simply are not enough staff to cope with the work.
There is no doubt about the significant disruption. I will cite a couple of examples which the House may well know about. First, on 28 May, easyJet announced that it would cancel more than 200 flights. The airline said that about 24 flights from Gatwick would be cancelled each day between 28 May and last Monday. Secondly, British Airways cancelled 120 short-haul flights to and from Heathrow Airport on 3 June, although it did say that the cancellations were pre-planned and that passengers had been given advance notice. Thirdly, TUI announced that nearly 400 flights would be cancelled from 31 May until the end of June.
Then there is the issue of delays. For people at Manchester Airport on 29 May, it was not good enough for the airport to apologise for the delays at check-in and baggage reclaim and say only that the reason was that there were issues facing several airlines. Of course, very few of the thousands of people who have been adversely affected in recent weeks—and who will be in the months to come—will be watching today’s debate. However, if any of them are, I hope that they will see that Parliament is an important forum for their complaints to be heard and answered.
Mind you, am I the only person to look at what is happening—to see the airport queues and the cancelled flights and the delays that people face at airports and to learn that it is taking far longer than it should for people to have their passport applications processed, and to be told that the Government cannot process in good time the numbers of security applications now being made for airline and airport staff—and then discover that the Government have now announced that they want to reduce the size of the Civil Service?
It feels as though these are the ingredients of what we might otherwise call a failing state. People are entitled to ask who is to blame for all this. Like my noble friend, I am not here to indulge in a blame game because I hope there will be a educative purpose to this debate—to identify who might be to blame for what—in the hope that we can put things right. I often feel that in a debate such as this the Minister’s speech should come first, to enable us to contribute our views in the light of the Government’s arguments. However, it is up to my noble friend Lord Davies to do that in his winding-up remarks.
What has been going wrong? Is it that too many people want to travel? As my noble friend said, after the Covid restrictions of the past two years, it is hardly helpful to blame people for wanting to travel again. Is it because the airlines have acted recklessly? I hope the Minister will tell the House whether she agrees with the Secretary of State, who has apparently said that airlines and operators had
“seriously oversold flights and holidays”.
Is it, as the airlines claim, because it is taking too much time to get security clearances for the staff they now need? Here it seems that the Government have a case to answer. The director-general of IATA recently said that security clearances which used to take three or four weeks are now taking as long as three months. Can the Minister tell the House whether this is true and, if it is, what the Government are doing to fix it? Has it in some way all been affected by the war in Ukraine because Civil Service resources have understandably been diverted from regular Home Office tasks to deal with the urgent need to process visa and asylum applications? Or is it for some other range of reasons? Some people have suggested IT glitches, supply chain issues and even runway maintenance problems.
Whatever the explanation, it all amounts to something of a perfect storm with fuel and energy prices and the cost of living rising, which we are about to address in the next debate, and rail strikes looming, and those planned might not be the only ones. Air travel problems are an ongoing problem and the Government at least owe the country an explanation for what is happening and what they think is going wrong. I hope the Minister can tell us what it is, together with any government plan to remedy the situation because action is needed. I much look forward to her reply.
Viscount Waverley (CB)
My Lords, I apologise to the House at large and to the noble Viscount, Lord Stansgate, for speaking before time. I fully concur with him that it would be helpful if Ministers were minded to speak first and then we could all join in accordingly thereafter.
The seeming unpreparedness, the random cancellations and the lack of information to passengers is galling, with airlines caught on the hop. For all the justifiable criticism, however, a thought should go out to the poor souls on the ground who are having to field an impossible situation. The whys and wherefores are, in reality, academic. What is required now is to identify what measures are to be implemented to alleviate the situation. Many have been put forward already. I have six, some of which are somewhat duplicates.
First, more resources to vet new staff for security clearance are essential, as the current two weeks to two months is a bottleneck. Many give up and go elsewhere. Secondly, an immediate increase in staff at check-in procedures is fundamental. Thirdly, we need more trained air crew and ground staff to be able to cope with absences. As an interim measure, airlines should organise crews from elsewhere. On Tuesday, a crew was parachuted in from Latvia for my flight back to the UK.
Fourthly, airlines have depleted cash reserves, with many having borrowed heavily to survive the pandemic. Would something akin to the furlough scheme to help airlines recruit and retain their reserve staff be a solution? Fifthly—I was surprised at this—liquids do need to be removed from bags at security checks, but do computers really need to be? Portugal, for example, has removed the need.
Sixthly, the policy of airlines knowingly overbooking flights should end forthwith, a point made by the noble Viscount, Lord Stansgate. With the current situation, any seat capacity should be required for those affected by flight cancellations and the like.
On the wider front, if the Minister is minded to reply to this while she is her feet, what is the current situation regarding the registration of outgoing passengers by Border Force, so that we can keep better control of who is actually leaving the country as opposed to having a record of those entering it? Since time immemorial, we have been informed that the process is being sorted. What is the latest on that, if the Minister is minded to respond? If not, I look forward in due course to a letter.
Lord Kerr of Kinlochard (CB)
My Lords, the noble Lord, Lord Davies, asked all the right questions, and I greatly look forward to the Minister’s reply—
Viscount Younger of Leckie (Con)
I am sorry, but I was not aware that the noble Lord was down to speak.
Viscount Younger of Leckie (Con)
I do not think anyone was aware that the noble Lord intended to do so but, with the House’s indulgence, maybe we can allow the noble Lord to speak for four minutes.
Lord Kerr of Kinlochard (CB)
I was saying that I greatly look forward to the Minister’s reply to the questions from the noble Lord, Lord Davies. I hope that what I am going to say now will not be taken as any criticism of her; she defends her department’s brief in this House with style and stamina.
However, I have to ask: where is the Secretary of State for Transport? He is Macavity, the mystery cat: when things go wrong, he is never there. We have gridlock at Dover, chaos at the airports; queues at the pumps; a tube strike and a looming train strike, and it seems that none of this has anything to do with the Government and there is nothing they can do to put it right. The Government’s job is to govern. When problems like these arise, it is time for Mr Shapps to step forward.
I heard a rumour that he is moonlighting—that he has something else. Perhaps he is running for the leadership of his party, or maybe he is doing as he did when he first came into Parliament: running, under a pseudonym, a private business offering to make one very rich in return for sending him a small cheque. Whatever he is doing, he should stop it and revert to the job of the department and try to put right the problems so clearly set out by the noble Lord, Lord Davies. I greatly look forward to the Minister reassuring me that that is indeed what will happen.
Baroness Randerson (LD)
My Lords, I thank the noble Lord, Lord Davies, for introducing this important debate. These are complex issues that have harmed the tourism-related sector in general and have done further harm to our international reputation as an efficient and competent country. This sits alongside our sorry status as the slowest-growing major world economy—with the single exception of Russia—and adds to our problems as the G7 country with the highest inflation rate. I would not go quite so far as talking about a failing country, but it is a serious situation.
The border situation has caused stress and had a financial impact on many families trying to travel abroad, many of them for their first foreign holiday for years. In relation to ferry ports, it has caused even further harm to traders trying to export goods to the EU in particular because of the costs associated with long delays to get through customs.
We as a country are not alone in having problems with processing airport passengers, but we are suffering a more widespread problem for several reasons. We have firmer borders than most EU countries, which benefit from freer-flowing traffic due to Schengen. Some other Governments have taken a more organised and timely set of measures to support passengers and traders as traffic flows expand following Covid. And of course, uniquely, we have Brexit. The Minister will not mention it, so I will: prior to Brexit, 40% of ground handlers were from EU, and they are proving impossible to replace.
I am certainly not going to stand here and say that all of the blame attaches to the Government. Some airlines in particular have a poor record on cancellations; for instance, the last-minute cancellations by Wizz Air are totally unacceptable. These companies were cushioned during Covid by significant amounts of customer cash that was frozen in the form of vouchers. People are now using these, and any well-run company would have predicted that they would use them as soon as possible. BA has also cancelled a lot of flights, but it has done so with a much longer lead-in time. It is facing recruitment problems, which is not a surprise because it took the opportunity of the pandemic to reduce terms and conditions for flight crew—so BA no longer has the recruitment advantage that it once had.
Aviation is a complex industry; the services provided involve airport facilities from runways to shopping as well as airlines, ground handling, baggage handling, passport control, security and air traffic control. These are run by a range of separate commercial companies and by the Government, but the passenger sees them as all part of a single integrated experience. Throughout the pandemic, the Government showed themselves willing to intervene to support other industries, such as the railways. But government support has been much weaker for aviation, and airports in particular. Since last summer, the sector as a whole has been warning the Government that it could not just restart but instead needed a long lead-in time. The Government’s stop-start approach to foreign travel, although understandable, made that more difficult.
The Government cite £8 billion-worth of support for the industry, but, if you look at this in detail, the overwhelming majority of it is commercial loans and export guarantees. Unlike airlines, airports could not totally shut down; for safety reasons, runways have to stay open and life-saving flights have to continue. Overall, airports lost £10 billion during the pandemic, and they now need government investment in their future.
This debate is an excellent opportunity to ask the Minister some questions. During the pandemic, there were long queues for passport control and inadequate numbers of Border Force staff. Border Force currently says that it has training for new staff in hand, ready for the summer season. Can the Minister tell us about these expansion plans, particularly because there will be additional demands on personnel at our ports, as new and more complex checks will be introduced later in the year?
Lying behind all of these stories of ruined holidays are those stuck at home because they cannot get their passports renewed. Can the Minister update us on how the Government plan to rapidly improve this service? Are they able to speed up security checks for staff at airports?
Some new freedoms come with Brexit. One specific one is the possibility of VAT-free shopping at airports. This would help them to recover, but the Government have failed to introduce it, and UK airports are now at a disadvantage in comparison with some EU countries. Do the Government intend to tackle this anomaly? What are they doing to improve consumer rights?
Some airports have been much more heavily affected by airline cancellations, over which they have no control, of course. Does the Minister agree that there is a need for a much more strategic government approach, working closely with the industries concerned, to provide steady long-term support to rebuild these sectors?
I was appalled to hear the Secretary of State hectoring the travel sector, full of blame for a complex industry that has faced a disastrous on-off situation. That attitude damages our country. International travel and trade are our window to the world. If we cannot manage to operate them effectively, it does fundamental damage to our reputation. This complex sector needs the Government to rise above the blame game.
Lord Tunnicliffe (Lab)
My Lords, as experts warn that disruption is likely to persist through the summer months, the Government must take responsibility and act to ease the chronic disruption at ports and airports. This week alone thousands of flights have been cancelled and hauliers have had to wait at Dover as a result of lengthy queues.
The travel chaos is now damaging the UK’s supply chain and world-class businesses, as well as ruining holidays. Sadly, this disruption was not inevitable. Ministers should have prepared months ago, working with the industry representatives to put together a co-ordinated plan. It is now eight months since the Government appointed a logistics task force to manage the supply chain crisis causing chaos at Dover, but Ministers have since admitted that this task force was abolished the day after, when the reshuffle took place.
The defining feature of good government is an ability to spot crises ahead and then co-ordinate properly to avoid them, but this is exactly what Ministers have been unable to do. I am reminded of the millennium bug ahead of the year 2000, which many now erroneously think was a myth. As the head of a large, complex organisation at the time, I found the Government’s intervention tiresome, but, as our understanding of the problem grew, we were grateful for the early intervention. The truth is that the millennium bug did indeed pose a real danger to the UK economy and infrastructure. It was only through proper management that the danger did not materialise.
The Government have failed to avoid this crisis, and now Ministers need to show some responsibility and take concrete steps to tackle the chaos growing on their watch. First, we need co-ordination, and that means convening emergency talks with the major ferry operators and Eurotunnel Freight to boost capacity on routes over the channel. Parallel talks are needed with the airline industry to try to solve the crisis, or at least manage the shortages in an orderly way. As part of this, the Government must bring together industry, airports, unions and Governments to tackle the chronic low pay hampering recruitment and address the skills shortage leaving the aviation industry thousands of staff short for this summer. In the past, there was loyalty in the civil aviation industry. That has been eroded by employers’ efforts to reduce costs by making workers poorer. Not surprisingly, people made redundant in the pandemic have better jobs, with more sympathetic employers, that they are unwilling to leave.
Secondly, Ministers need to form a supply-chain council of key industry groups, ports, unions and Government, so their voice is heard loud and clear in the planning, preparation and delivery of measures to tackle the disruption. This council can then be used as a springboard to cut the red tape choking British business, with veterinary agreements to reduce checks and forms for fresh food and goods, contributing to the lengthy waits at ports.
Finally, we also need real leadership to tackle the Cabinet Office backlog in security checks for airport staff, to allow employees to be safely recruited ahead of the busy summer period. In addition to this, the Government must also look to the future and improve conditions for hauliers around Dover, with proper facilities for drivers to wait in comfort along the first phase of the route. If Ministers had properly planned, prepared and co-ordinated, this crisis could have been avoided. Sadly, they have not, and we are therefore dealing with the consequences.
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department for Transport (Baroness Vere of Norbiton) (Con)
My Lords, I am very grateful for the opportunity to discuss the important issues that noble Lords have raised today, and particularly grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Davies, for securing this debate. I shall try to focus on what the Government are doing currently and will do in the future. I agree that it is not about blame, but it is the case that this is a private sector, operated by quite talented and well-paid people, and they need to take some of the responsibility for making sure that communication happens in what is a complex sector, as pointed out by the noble Baroness, Lady Randerson—it is not just one sector; there are all sorts of different elements within it. The Government clearly have a role to play in that, which I shall come on to fairly shortly.
It is great to see people returning to international travel—it is really good. When I was stuck in a queue in Gatwick about 10 days ago, I actually really enjoyed it. People were in particularly good humour; we all got on our flights eventually and it was fine. People were actually very happy to be going away again. It is such a positive thing to see people traveling again. But very short-notice cancellations of long-awaited trips are absolutely devastating for those families and individuals. Clearly, we have to resolve various elements of what is going on at the moment.
I noted that the noble Lord, Lord Davies, quoted numerous times from that standard of journalism, the Daily Mail, which was surprising to me. Nevertheless, one takes one’s stories from where one can—particularly when the support a particular argument. However, things are not as bad as they are portrayed in the Daily Mail—not by a long shot. The CAA has indicated that, over the jubilee weekend, the percentage of departing flights that were cancelled was 3%. So it is not, in the words of the noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, a crisis. There are issues that we must resolve—I absolutely accept that—with the Government working with industry, and I shall speak as I can.
I am trying to take a more measured tone about this, because we must also recognise that this is happening in all sorts of places across Europe. Noble Lords will have seen what has happened in Dublin and Schiphol. KLM has announced a suspension of ticket sales. In the United States, they had to cancel 4,000 flights at the end of May because of staff shortages and bad weather. This is not unique to the UK. It also means that there are not endless amounts of aviation personnel all over the world waiting to flood into our country. Therefore, even if providing additional visas was an option, which it is not, I am not entirely sure that there are staff who are willing to jump on board in the short term.
The issue of overbooking flights is a very important one. The Government are very clear that we want to see the industry being able to operate the schedule that it has committed to. Cancelling flights a couple of weeks before departure, as happened to me, although it was fine, or on the day of departure, is really not acceptable. We really want the industry to get together, plan properly and make sure that it can deliver what it has promised to deliver—then we will not have the stories in the Daily Mail, because people will be able to get on their planes. So we are working very closely with the CAA to make sure that the industry gets that message—and that, if it has to cancel a flight, which occasionally happens, it gives as much notice as possible. We are also very focused on refunds and compensation, because it is absolutely right that passengers get that.
I want quickly to turn to security alleviations, about which there has been a number of reports in the media. The Government are always very mindful that security must be our top priority; however, we have been able to put some alleviations in place. We have laid a statutory instrument before Parliament which will agree temporary changes to permit certain training to be undertaken while the background checks are still being completed. This is very helpful in shortening the period between the date of recruitment and the date of deployment.
We have already boosted the resourcing of security checks, and I am pleased to reassure the noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, that there is no backlog of security checks within government. We have also agreed that HMRC employment history letters can be temporarily used as a form of reference check. Again, this helps contract the time between recruitment of staff and deployment. We have agreed to a series of alleviations to aviation security regulations, but noble Lords will appreciate that I cannot go into the detail of what those moderate alleviations are.
I am afraid that suggestions that the police, the military et cetera could be brought in to do baggage handling—I know that some airline CEOs have suggested that—are also wide of the mark. Frankly, although people in the military are highly skilled, they are not highly skilled at dealing with baggage. It is a job that requires training and confidence, so it is not a route we will be going down.
We have engaged significantly with the industry throughout the pandemic, obviously, but particularly on this issue. The Secretary of State and the Aviation Minister had an industry round table on 1 June. Minister Courts, and Minister Hinds from the Home Office, also had an industry round table on 12 May. We are establishing a strategic risk group, chaired by the Aviation Minister, which will bring together all the different elements outlined by the noble Baroness, Lady Randerson. We feel there has not been enough conversation and interaction between the airlines, airports, ground handlers and security people, all of which need to come together. We need to identify the risks—I would hope the industry has already done so—but we also need to identify some of the solutions the industry can put in place, as well as more things the Government can do, because if there are more things we can do, we would be happy to do them. Obviously, we have already done many things.
We have also recognised for some time that we need to focus on aviation skills. We published the Flightpath to the Future strategy very recently, and back in February last year we launched the Aviation Skills Retention Platform, because we recognised, as did the right revered Prelate and the noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, the importance of staff to the sector. There is also this thing about the people who work in it: they quite like it and they want to go back to it; they feel an affinity with it. Once an aviation person, always an aviation person. So, we are trying to make sure that we keep people, at least to a certain extent, so that they have visibility of what is going on in the sector, even if they have chosen not to work in it for a certain period of time but may yet come back to it.
Consumer rights is also top of mind at the moment because, obviously, we see the distressing stories and we want to make sure that consumers are getting the compensation they need. They need the information and the guidance, and they need to know exactly what their rights are and how to go about exercising them. The Flightpath to the Future strategy has put consumers first, and it recognises the importance of government and the aviation sector working together to rebuild consumer confidence. This will lead on various consumer rights elements, and, of course, noble Lords will have recognised that we published a consultation earlier this year on ways to boost air passenger rights. We have received a large number of responses to that, and we will be publishing a response in due course.
Turning to Border Force, the right revered Prelate referred to the important work of those at the border and spoke eloquently about the role of chaplains at airports. When I was Aviation Minister three years ago, I too was struck by the work they do. Border Force has been through a period of extensive planning and resource management to make sure it is as prepared as possible for the peak demand period. We are content that we will be able to cope with the various peaks. Sometimes there will be delays, but it is not going to be massively disruptive. The e-gates have been upgraded over recent months to support the flow of passengers. The noble Baroness, Lady Randerson, spoke about additional checks coming in from Europe. If they do come in—again, there is some doubt about that—they will be for PAF to undertake, not Border Force.
There were a couple of questions about the Passport Office and getting passports. I am afraid that is not within my brief today, so I will write on that matter.
I turn briefly, because I have a couple of minutes left, to Dover. Again, there is a lot in the press. I am responsible for roads in Dover and Kent and when I was away for the Recess, I would get sitreps probably two or three times a day on what was going on at Dover. They bore no relation to what was in the media. There was no gridlock at Dover, or lengthy queues. There were some delays, but nothing greater than one would have seen pre-pandemic on a busy summer day. Sometimes, people queue a bit for freight: it does not mean they sit in queues for eight hours. The queues still move; people just have to wait a little while. The reason we do that is to allow passenger traffic to move through more quickly. We did not see delays of more than an hour or two for passengers to check in; again, that would have happened pre-pandemic and in many circumstances, in Eurotunnel and at the port of Dover. TAP is currently not operating and we are about to remove Brock, which we do not now need; we will assess it later, towards the summer. Again, I am as relaxed as a Transport Minister ever gets about the situation in Kent. There is no shortage of capacity across the short straits; P&O Ferries is back sailing now, so capacity is not a problem. We had a minor problem with the PAF booths on Sunday 29 May, I believe—a few people did not turn up for work, but eventually the French sent some more, so that was all fine.
In general, we are not complacent but we have very good plans in place. The noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, asked whether we have plans and systems in place. Absolutely. I am all over it; I am on top of it. The Kent Resilience Forum has very good local plans and it reports back to the Minister. The noble Lord also asked whether we have a council. We do. A freight council was established last year; it meets quarterly and talks about supply chains and their integration with the transport system. The future of freight strategy will be launched very shortly.
I believe I have run out of time now, but I am grateful to all noble Lords for their contributions and I will write on any matters I was not able sufficiently to cover.
Cost of Living
Lord Eatwell
That this House takes note of (1) the increasing cost of living, (2) the level of economic resilience in the social capital of the United Kingdom, and (3) the case for Her Majesty’s Government to take further steps to address these issues.
Lord Eatwell (Lab)
My Lords, consider this family holiday in Britain today. Setting off for their luxury staycation in their brand new electric BMW, our family spends wearisome hours sitting in noxious traffic jams. They pass through pretty towns rendered ugly by dilapidated high streets and persistent potholes. At lunchtime, they enjoy an exquisite picnic hamper, complete with champagne, sat beside a handsome river—polluted with raw sewage. Unfortunately, their teenage son sustains a nasty cut from some broken glass and they spend hours that evening waiting in a crowded, understaffed A&E rather than enjoying their 5-star hotel. The car is vandalised overnight.
Noble Lords familiar with John Kenneth Galbraith’s book The Affluent Society will recognise that I have borrowed from his famous description of the coexistence of private affluence and public squalor. Galbraith also wrote:
“There is no blight on contemporary life so great as the enduring poverty in our great cities and of the still unseen poor in the rural regions.”
We are all aware that the British economy performed poorly after 2010, with the decade resulting in the lowest per capita growth rate since the war, and the second lowest rate of productivity growth in the G7. Then came the triumvirate of shocks of the past five years. Brexit, according to the OBR, has reduced long-run GDP by 4% per year—for ever. In the pandemic, the UK suffered the highest number of deaths and the poorest economic performance in Europe. Now we have the cost of living shock, derived from the toxic combination of Brexit, the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The UK has the highest rate of inflation in the G7. In these rankings, Britain fares worst—every time. The Minister may argue, quite rightly, that the pandemic and the war in Ukraine are global crises. However, she must explain why the UK is now battling it out with Russia for the title of the worst-performing economy of the G20. Why is Britain proving to be so lacking in resilience, compared with everyone else?
The Government must face up to the fact that the greatest damage to the UK economy—the damage that eroded our capability to stand up to these shocks and undermined national resilience—was inflicted by the austerity policies of the Conservative-led Administration since 2010. These are the very policies, by the way, that Mr Sunak declares are his desire to reinstate in his quest for a small state. This Conservative conventional wisdom attributes the national lack of resilience to limitations imposed on the so-called wealth-producing part of the economy—the private sector. We are told that it is the private sector that generates the wealth that provides the resources for the public sector; the dominant flow of wealth creation is one-way. It is the Chancellor’s oft-repeated belief that a successful private sector needs a low-tax, deregulated economy—just as he raises taxes, by the way.
In the wake of the Prime Minister’s recent humiliation, Cabinet Ministers have rushed to display their Conservative credentials by urging tax cuts. When the Minister sums up, will she tell us how tax cuts are to be paid for? This conventional wisdom is seriously flawed. For example, it is simply not the case that cutting corporation taxes increases investment; investment depends predominantly on the confident expectation of positive returns, not on marginal tax rates. More seriously, the conventional wisdom neglects the vital role of social capital in the determination of economic performance—flawed analysis has generated flawed policies.
The term “social capital” refers to our investment in society: education, health, the legal system, the police, social security and defence. These are all vital components of the glue that binds our country together. It is social capital that provides an indispensable foundation of economic activity. Without investment in social capital, the economy loses resilience. This lack of resilience has resulted in the low-growth, high-inflation and high-taxation Britain of today. Yet social capital was the target of Conservative austerity: from 2010 to 2019, real-terms public service spending was cut by 20%. Britain was ill prepared for the shocks to come, and this is the road to Mr Sunak’s small state.
Let us consider this: how resilient could the NHS be in the face of Covid, and what were the consequences for the economy? From 2010 to 2019, government health spending grew at an average real-terms rate of 1.6% per year—lower than in any previous decade in NHS history. The NHS entered the pandemic with 40,000 nursing vacancies in England, and fewer doctors, hospital beds and CT scanners per person than in many similar countries. It was underequipped and understaffed. No wonder the Government called on the nation to “protect the NHS”.
Let us consider this relevant example: the 2012 Health and Social Care Act abolished local area health bodies. Community control teams and consultants in communicable disease control were cut. We ended up with nine regional hubs serving 343 English local authority areas. This was a recipe for disaster—or, more accurately, a recipe for the waste of billions of pounds on a failed test and trace system that might have worked if there had been sufficient local directors of public health, local field epidemiologists and local environmental health officers to make it work. Yet these were the very people who had been swept away by Conservative austerity.
What of the impact on the economy? As we know, there are currently major labour shortages in many sectors. Around 1.1 million workers are missing from the labour force. Of these, around 500,000 are due to the long-term impact of Covid. If these half a million workers were still in the labour force, then, according to OBR estimates, the GDP would be more than £8 billion greater. The less resilience shown by the NHS in the face of the Covid shock, the worse the short- and medium- term impact on the economy.
Another target of Tory austerity was education. School spending per pupil in England fell by an average of 9% in real terms between 2009 and 2019, with, most disgracefully, the most deprived fifth of secondary schools experiencing the worst fall of all: 14%. According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, this squeeze on educational resources is
“without precedent in post-war UK history.”
The result? England is today one of only a few OECD countries where the young have worse literacy and numeracy skills than 55 to 65 year-olds. Perhaps the Government were trying to balance things up, as they also cut spending on adult education by 49%. Is it any wonder there is a skills shortage? Cutting spending on education was a sure way to reduce productivity growth, making the economy less resilient in the face of the triumvirate of shocks.
The damage done by Conservative policies towards health and education has been amplified by the persistent increase in inequality. The Office for National Statistics has shown that growing inequality has been predominantly the result not of market forces but of government cuts in social security. Here is the bitter irony: there is clear evidence that the main mechanism through which inequality affects growth is by undermining education opportunities for children from poor socioeconomic backgrounds, lowering social mobility and hampering skills development. It is not an issue just for those in dire poverty. The impact of inequality on growth stems from the gap between the bottom 40% and the rest of society, not just the poorest 10%. When combined with deteriorating healthcare and underfunded education, growing inequality has helped diminish resilience yet further, limiting our ability to respond to shocks and endangering our economic future.
Recognising the crucial role of social capital suggests that improved economic resilience and growth require not Mr Sunak’s longed for small state but the reversal of the Tories’ destructive policies—not just the current desperate short-term approach of throwing money at problems but an unrelenting commitment to rebuild social capital, plus an ambitious plan for sustained investment at higher levels than in the past.
But there is a problem. It is far easier to destroy social capital than to build it. It is as if you do not bother to service your car for years until it suffers a catastrophic breakdown. The cost of repair is then far greater than the earlier “savings”—or, to take an analogy beloved of Conservative commentators, you do not “fix the roof”. It will cost more to restore our social capital than the spurious “efficiency savings” of Tory Chancellors. Fixing the roof will require well-crafted, long-term policies—policies notably absent from the record of this Conservative Government.
However, recent government decisions do embody an approach that may be part of a political solution to the long-term challenge. The social care levy, due to take over from the increase in national insurance contributions, was, when introduced, characterised by the Government as a hypothecated levy, with the funds from the levy committed to social care and the health service.
The impact of this approach was somewhat undermined by the recent increase in the NICs threshold, which automatically cut the levy funding available for social care. But, none the less, an interesting point was made. All research suggests that people are more willing to fund social capital if they can see where their money goes and if it goes to create opportunities, expertise, production and jobs in Britain.
A long-term plan for the reconstruction of social capital that includes a regular audit linking payment of taxes or levies to expenditure in specific, if broadly defined, areas is what Britain needs. It would also allow a far better-informed public debate about the scale and content of public expenditure. The Government would and should be accountable to the people for their use of taxpayers’ money.
Of course, the Treasury hates hypothecation because it limits its discretion. However, careful examination of the Treasury’s record over the past dozen years suggests that limiting Treasury discretion would be no bad thing, as it has a clear propensity to cut long-term investment programmes in the face of short-term pressures. That is not a good way to build a resilient economy.
Building resilience will also require a complete rethink of the relationship between investment in social capital and industrial policy, recognising their mutual dependence. A lesson from the pandemic was that global supply chains are not just risky but downright dangerous. We must underpin the growth of social capital with production at home, repatriating our supply chains wherever we can. Investment in social capital must help build safe supply chains in Britain.
Fixing the roof will require both well-crafted long-term policies and a covenant with the British people. This covenant will provide the framework for a commitment to better-informed debate around the scale, contents and outcomes of public expenditure—a debate that will embody accountability. Secure social capital provides the bedrock on which the private sector thrives. It is an indispensable component of the resilient economy that the people of Britain deserve: no longer insecure private affluence and public squalor, but secure private affluence and public excellence.
Lord Griffiths of Fforestfach (Con)
My Lords, I thank the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, for securing this debate. I will concentrate not on the whole panorama of government policy in its economic and political context, which he has done wonderfully, but on the number one issue of the day and the first part of his three-part Motion: the cost of living and inflation. I will make three points.
The first is about the seriousness of this situation. The inflation we have was totally unexpected. As we know, many—in fact, most—families are struggling at present with the cost of living, and low-income families are moving into destitution. The two consolations I have are that, first, whenever I turn on the radio at breakfast, one always hears of certain charities and community organisations helping people in need and, secondly, that the Chancellor of the Exchequer has now introduced two amendments to policies to help alleviate this situation. However, I have one concern: people are in such a situation that they are being forced into debt, with credit card loans and “Buy now, pay later” apps, and even into payday loans.
Some years ago, I chaired a commission for the then shadow Chancellor Oliver Letwin on the problems of low-income families getting into debt and what could be done about them. It was a very salutary commission to chair. The results of a Citizens Advice survey reckon that over 40% of people are borrowing simply to meet repayment. Can the Minister say what the Treasury is doing to make sure that the companies that can lend money in this way are acting responsibly in the loans they are providing?
My second point is that social capital is, in my judgment, absolutely crucial. I agree with the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, that it is important in terms of public investment, but “social capital” as an expression was invented by James Coleman who was—to the best of my memory—a sociologist. Social capital is important in any society because it is really the foundation of our culture. It is the glue that binds us together as a society and it depends, more than anything else, on trust and trustworthy institutions.
It is precisely trust and trustworthy institutions which inflation undermines. Inflation creates a culture of suspicion, distrust, blame and, ultimately, social conflict. A novel in 1977—when inflation was high—said that:
“All over the country, people blamed other people for all the things that were going wrong – the trades unions, the present government, the miners, the car workers, the seamen, the Arabs, the Irish … idle good-for-nothing offspring, comprehensive education.”
That was a novel by Margaret Drabble, not the words of Margaret Thatcher. Our social capital is already being undermined by social media and inflation is simply adding to this. We have a blame culture: the local corner shop jacking up prices, Putin, the embargo on gas, China, a zero-Covid policy, supply shortages, companies with monopoly power, increasing prices, the rail unions, the Bank of England, the governor, the Monetary Policy Committee, shrinkflation from people reducing the amount of contents in a bag. And there are questions like why is Waitrose increasing prices more than Aldi or Lidl, or why are the prices at the petrol stations—BP and Shell—not coming down?
Inflation at present is really undermining the social glue that holds our society together. What therefore can be done about it? I think there are three things. First, getting inflation down should be the policy priority. Supporting the Bank of England in raising interest rates is painful but is, I believe, absolutely necessary. One would like to see the Bank increase rates in a way that there can be no recession, but I doubt if that is likely. However, we need to get inflation out of the system before we can have the kind of prosperity that the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell has demanded. Secondly, the Treasury must pursue fiscal prudence, not increasing spending by creating money. Thirdly, as this is done, the Government have a major responsibility to look after those people—the poorest in our society—who are bearing the brunt of what is happening at present.
Lord Howarth of Newport (Lab) [V]
I thank my noble friend Lord Eatwell for his incisive analysis, and it is a pleasure to follow the noble Lord, Lord Griffiths, whom I hold in enormous respect. CPI inflation at 9% is, in reality, 11% for households on low incomes who have to spend a higher proportion of their resources on energy and food. Inflation for them may hit 14% by the autumn. Families on exiguous wages and capped social benefits are in deep difficulty.
The noble Lord, Lord Griffiths, spoke rightly about how inflation is corrosive of trust. I suggest that the erosion of social capital—in the sense of strong social relationships and trust, which are a precondition of a strong economy—has been due above all to what proved to be excessive reliance since the 1980s on free market policies. Markets, for all their wealth-creating dynamic, are solvents of institutions, traditions and social bonds. The twin cults of individualism and competition have set all against all. As rewards to asset holders have exceeded the rewards to labour, there have been huge accumulations of private wealth, and inequality has reverted to the levels of a century ago. The wages of the disadvantaged and undefended in the labour market have stagnated and their lives have become more precarious. Young people see the system as stacked in favour of older generations. Toxic pathologies have been induced by such inequality. The effusion of national solidarity at the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee expressed a longing for a more solid sense of mutuality than is experienced in day-to-day life in Britain. Without it, our economy has been debilitated and lacks resilience.
Faced with a series of exogenous crises, the Government have made large-scale fiscal interventions. We are not in a good place. In 2021, the public sector net debt to GDP ratio was over 100%. We have exhausted the scope for quantitative easing that allowed government after the financial crisis of 2008 to borrow freely without affecting interest rates. Interest rates have already risen painfully, while the pound has weakened. The prospect for government outlays in interest payments, and for departmental spending limits, is grim. The Chancellor’s tax increases have hit the limit of what his party will tolerate. The labour market is tight. The outlook for growth, particularly in Britain, is darkening. Interest rates in the UK will rise yet further to douse inflation. The Bank risks precipitating recession, compounding social misery and choking off tax revenues.
Even if recession is averted, how can tax revenues be sustained, let alone increased, to enable us to address the fiscal implications of an ageing population and to fund decent services for all? A strong economy requires us to tackle our deficits in education, housing and the social determinants of health. Failure to invest in a timely transition to net-zero carbon and a green economy which generates plentiful good jobs would be catastrophic.
The Mirrlees review in 2009 exposed a tax system riddled with disincentives, incoherence, inefficiencies and poor targeting. This rickety system does not yield enough. One major source of revenue, fuel duty, is bound to fall. The Chancellor is considering how the tax regime can remedy the failure of UK businesses to invest. He should also be looking at the relative taxation of capital and labour, the taxation of land and property and the taxation of carbon. The system needs reform to channel entrepreneurial energy away from rent seeking into investment in productivity.
Productivity, which is key to non-inflationary growth and higher living standards, has hardly improved since 2010. To achieve competitive productivity requires not only tax reform but improved infrastructure, regulation, skills and access to capital. Regional differences in productivity are exceptionally large in the UK. I believe that this is significantly due to the concentration of decision-making, both in government and in business, in London. With the emasculation of local government since the 1970s, power and wealth have been concentrated in London and the south-east. George Osborne’s austerity axe fell excessively on local authorities in deprived areas, weakening their economies further. The Government’s levelling-up strategy has so far been wasteful of resources and does not offer adequate powers to the city regions and local government. We need more globally competitive cities.
My noble friend thinks our troubles are due in considerable measure to Brexit. Some price has to be paid, of course, for leaving the EU single market, but Brexit should not be made a scapegoat for deep-seated and persistent weaknesses in our economy. That said, the Government’s handling of the Northern Ireland protocol and their ill-judged trade diplomacy with the EU are damaging our performance and threatening our prospects.
A responsible Government would work to develop a shared view of the needs of the economy across the whole United Kingdom. Leaving our fortunes to the market, deregulation and cheap, casualised labour, with an implausible aspiration to get back to a balanced budget and low taxes, would be an abdication of responsibility.
The Lord Bishop of St Albans
My Lords, I too want to thank the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, for his excellent introduction to the debate. I was not going to say much about social capital. Like others, I was brought up on Robert Putnam’s Bowling Alone and reading his excellent work. I notice that the noble Lord’s analysis was very much on the economic aspect. From my perspective of having responsibility for over 400 churches across two counties, the voluntary aspect is also an important part of that work.
One of the things that I have observed over the last 40 years is that the decline in social capital is due to a whole lot of reasons, which we really ought to debate in this House, including things such as the Government’s attempts to professionalise volunteers. It has become increasingly difficult to find people to help. As an organisation that is running numerous food banks, debt advice centres, lunch clubs and breakfast clubs for children who are not going to get breakfast before school, we are very eager to be part of this, but it has got more difficult for us to deliver it. I must not stay on that too long, or I will be over my time.
The challenges we are facing are stark, starting with the massive increases in fuel and basic food costs. A Food Standards Agency survey has found that one in five people has recently either skipped or reduced the size of meals to reduce their costs. Our evidence coming in week by week at the food banks is that demand has grown massively. Nobody is engineering that; we are just getting the reports in week by week.
We do indeed need a strategy for the short and the long term. I think it is very good that the cost of living payment is going to be a welcome step to easing the pressure on those on the lowest incomes. I hope Her Majesty’s Government will look at other ways of giving immediate short-term benefits. Without that, there will be the most extraordinary crisis within a very short time.
Having said that, I want to concentrate on one other aspect of the long-term response. The cost of fuel has gone up at a time when there is a desperate need to reduce our carbon emissions. It is worrying to hear that some of the very carbon-productive forms of energy are likely to be extended when we are in a crisis. We need to think about whether some of this can come together in some new ways of thinking. Fortunately, we are not in the difficult position that, for example, Germany and some other neighbouring countries are in who are profoundly reliant on gas from Russia. Nevertheless, we are affected by markets across the world, and the war in Ukraine has revealed how vulnerable we are to fluctuations in gas and oil prices. If we had made much more progress in the past in renewables, we would not be in such a weak position today.
The grants provided by boiler upgrade schemes, which I think were referred to in Questions earlier today, will undoubtedly help in this regard, although it is going to be decades before we make sizeable inroads into that. However, at a time when families are struggling, it is questionable whether they are going to have the capital that they will need to make up the shortfall for that scheme. To make a success of the scheme, we will need further loans which will help people access that market.
Likewise, the urgent need to encourage the private adoption of solar photovoltaic panels to allow households and commercial buildings to generate their own energy will play a modest part in averting the economy’s vulnerability to fluctuations in fuel prices. There is a glaring incentive problem whereby it takes far too long for the average house or business to recoup their capital costs if they install these renewable forms of energy.
If the Government are to make the economy more resilient to better absorb future energy shocks, addressing this incentive problem will be crucial. There are various ways to address it. Of course, in the most extraordinary way, these huge hikes in the cost of fuel are in fact shortening the period over which you can then recoup the costs and begin to benefit from the installation of solar panels.
Another way to tackle this is to introduce legislation so that companies providing electricity are required to pay a much more realistic price for the surplus electricity that households sell back from their solar panels. Under the old feed-in tariff scheme, householders were receiving much more money back from their providers than they do now for their surplus energy. They now receive about one-10th of what they were receiving, depending on which provider you use. Therefore, electricity companies are making a much greater profit out of buying separate energy and selling it at a huge cost back to others. What consideration have Her Majesty’s Government given to imposing a minimum price to increase the income that householders receive back from that spare electricity, thereby incentivising people to bring in these forms of renewables much more quickly?
Lord Brooke of Alverthorpe (Lab)
My Lords, I am grateful to my noble friend Lord Eatwell for a brilliant speech. I also read his blog, which he issues every week. We go back a long way. We were friends before Labour came to power. He was one of the major architects of building the Institute for Public Policy Research, which was such an important body in giving influence to economic policies within the then Labour Government of 1997, and which of course produced so many Cabinet members as well.
As we come out of Covid and with all the additional problems now facing us, this may be an opportunity—I am primarily addressing my own party—for us to sit back and take a longer look, in a way that we have not done for quite some time, in determining what the party’s economic policy should be. I do not think I will persuade the Government to change their position much. I do not feel that the Government have learned a great deal from Covid, and there are some important lessons there which need debating—fundamental issues which have not been addressed, way beyond simply the health service.
Many people worked at home and had a different lifestyle for two years. We ought to spend a bit of time talking to people about that lifestyle change that they have gone through. Many of them do not want to go back to the work they had before, because it was poor quality and poorly paid, and they found that they were happier at home. A million people have disappeared out of the economy, and we need to get those people back in one way or another.
There is a way of getting them back in. Instead of constantly saying, “Get back to work! Get back to the office!”, is it not time that we started examining whether in fact people could work from home on a far greater scale than they have done in the past? People found they were happier, healthier, less stressed, and they were saving money on not travelling and on the very high costs of childcare that many face. These are all savings that could be made for people who are in financial difficulties if they are allowed and encouraged to work from home.
I address that appeal primarily to the Labour Party as it works out its future policy. I believe that the party that says that it is looking for a fundamental change away from people working in offices in great groups to operating in their homes, within their local communities and developing them, will have a very good policy indeed that will be very attractive to many people around the country.
Secondly, linked to that, we need an overall review of where we are going with benefit support. Just as Labour went for a minimum wage in the 1990s, so we now need to move forward and look for a minimum salary for all, whether you are working at home or not, so that you can be at home with that minimum wage, you can look after your family, your children and the people around you, and you can work from home. This is an entirely new style of life which was pointed to us in Covid. It gave us the outlines of it. It behoves us now to spend more time looking at it and to see what kind of longer-term economic policy and social structure we can develop that will be more in accord with a happier nation than we have at the moment.
Lord Desai (Non-Afl)
My Lords, it is a great pleasure to thank my friend, the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell. Like the noble Lord, Lord Brooke, I have known him for a very long time, and it is a great pleasure to be able to hear his erudition and the concern that he has always had. It was also a great pleasure to listen to my friend, the noble Lord, Lord Griffiths. I commiserate with the Minister, because she has only one good Tory friend on the Back Benches taking part in this debate, but I am sure that she will bounce back and give the answer that she has prepared.
I want to concentrate my six minutes on something that I think is worth remembering. We have been through this before. In the 1970s, when the oil price quadrupled, we had a supply shock in the energy sector like we are having now. At that time, a lot of things changed in our lives. First, we had stagflation for a very long time, with very high unemployment. That was when the consensus on a one-nation politics changed. The Butskellism collapsed, and we very soon had Thatcherism.
One thing I will say in defence of Thatcherism is that it was not all about cutting taxes. People have very short memories. They do not remember that the 1970s were very hard on the economy. When Mrs Thatcher got into power in 1979, the first thing that Geoffrey Howe did was to double VAT rates from 8% to 15%, if I remember correctly; it was not 16%, because they did not want to have vindicated the allegation that Labour had made that they would double VAT. They did not quite double it; it went from 8% to 15%. Then we spent all the North Sea oil revenue and all the proceeds from selling public industries on financing unemployment benefits. The tax cuts came only at the end of the 1980s. Mrs Thatcher waited quite a while before she knew that tax cuts were affordable. Right now, they are not affordable—let me say that here and now. People have already said that we need much more money for health and social care; we need much more money to restore a lot of social capital. It would be an incredible folly for the Government to listen to their Back-Benchers who are clamouring for tax cuts. What tax cuts always mean are tax cuts for the rich; they are never for the poor. The poor have wage cuts; the rich have tax cuts—that is the way this kind of policy works.
I like the suggestion made by my friend, the noble Lord, Lord Brooke—and the Greens have recommended it too—of a basic income. I have written about it over many years. A basic income is a citizen’s entitlement of income. I know that people think it is very expensive and so on, but, right now, perhaps up to 30% or 40% of families are suffering from severe hyperinflation. I have never seen things so bad in terms of people having to go to food banks and things like that. They are unable to heat their houses; their children cannot get hot meals unless they go to school.
The Government ought to treat this set of circumstances as a serious emergency. Stagflation will last about five to 10 years. It will not go away. This is not a temporary problem. Serious creative thinking is needed, just as the Government did during the pandemic, to say, “How can we, first, relieve the bottom 40%?” The key to that is not just universal credit. That does not cover everyone in that bottom 40%. How do we protect that bottom 40%?
A basic income would be the right idea. I can tell the Government more about basic income, as I have written quite a lot about it. People often say, “Oh, if you pay people to do nothing they will never work.” That is not true. Women work without pay a lot of the time to sustain the social capital. Do not worry about people not working. Try to construct a basic income platform as soon as possible. If the Government do this, rather than thinking of tax cuts, we may yet get through this stagflation with less damage than we have done so far.
Lord Davies of Brixton (Lab)
My Lords, I find this debate more intimidating than any other in which I have taken part, because I am surrounded by eminent professors. I recently threw away my undergraduate economics essays. It was a bit of a shock to see what appalling marks I received. Therefore, I suggest that these remarks are tentative, in case they receive another poor mark.
Tentatively, I make a simple point. I characterise inflation as a class issue, which has a corrosive effect on social capital. The first-order effect of inflation is to redistribute income and capital. There are second-order effects, which the noble Lord, Lord Griffiths, set out so clearly for us, but the key effect of inflation is to redistribute, and, of course, it redistributes from the poor to the rich. Over the years some of us have done well out of inflation. I include myself in that group. It is a lot more complicated than this, but to express it at its simplest, lower-income groups depend more on essentials, which are more affected by inflation, so they suffer the most. There has been discussion about this in the press but the evidence is clear that the things that are going up in price affect low-income individuals and families most.
This is impacting on low-income workers, who have suffered a standstill, if not a fallback, in their incomes over the last 10 years. This is not following a period of growth. It is the culmination of a period in which people in the groups that I am talking about have not seen their income increase. Real wages are currently falling more quickly than in any modern times.
It is ridiculous in these circumstances to argue, as central bankers and others have done, that we are verging into a wage-price spiral. The big difference between now and the 1970s, as outlined by the noble Lord, Lord Desai, is that trade unions are much weaker now than they were in the 1970s. This has a big impact on the ability of working people to defend their living standards.
We are suffering not from wages being too high, but from them being too low. The problems we face, the causes of inflation, will not be addressed by holding back wages and resisting wage demands. That is the instinctive reaction of a Conservative Government, but what working people need now is pay increases. That will reduce the inequitable impact of inflation and as a result reduce its impact on social capital. Wage increases are part of the solution, not the problem.
Baroness Jones of Moulsecoomb (GP)
My Lords, I have a confession: I do not know the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, at all—I deeply regret that, obviously—but I thoroughly enjoyed his panoramic exposition of the Government’s failings. It occurred to me that we could carry on listening to them all day, and there would be a lot of fun in it for me, except that some of it is incredibly painful. For example, the damage that this Government have done to schools, social housing and the NHS really hurts me because those things had an enormous impact on me, growing up.
My father and my mother told me horror stories of the poverty they both grew up in. My father was born in 1905 in south Wales. He was fatherless at the age of eight because of the Senghenydd mining disaster. He walked all the way to London with one of his brothers to find a job. When I was growing up in the 1950s and 1960s, they told stories about living in a council house with an indoor loo, a bath and a larder that they could keep their food cool in. They could also go to hospital if they hurt themselves and I, and my older brother, were able to go to school to learn and then to go on to university. These things that the Government have damaged really make me angry.
What we hear again and again from this Government is that they put forward their ideas, some of them—I do not want to say “mad” because that almost diminishes it—stupid, incomprehensible and incoherent; for example, sending migrants to Rwanda or bringing back imperial measures, which we have never lost anyway. The noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, mentioned sewage discharges. We in this House amended a Bill so that not only would sewage discharges be illegal but companies would be forced to stop them. The Government took that out. They voted for illegal sewage discharges which damage our ocean. The economic cost of that is huge in terms of human and ecosystem health.
I thank the noble Lord, Lord Desai, for mentioning basic income. I will be giving him an application for Green Party membership. It is an idea that has worked in other countries. It is not a particularly communistic idea; it is actually an incredibly sensible idea. However, the Government do not like sensible ideas. They have had all these ideas, and they say, “Nobody else has come up with an idea so these are the best we have.” I am going to give them three ideas. They are really simple, very basic and can be implemented moderately quickly, especially the first one.
The first is community energy projects. They are very fast to set up, they save people money and they can happen anywhere, from tiny, remote villages to urban neighbourhoods. They can involve anything from installing a wind turbine or solar-voltaic insulation and promoting energy efficiency. They save a lot of money and they can be done. The Government should do them quickly. They should make these things easy.
Secondly, all new housing developments should be set up as community energy schemes. Why are we not doing that? It is a simple measure and can be done; people are doing it all over the place. It would add about £9,000 to the price of homes but pay back within three or four years. That is good economics, and I urge it on the Government. Combine that with community land trusts and we could produce affordable housing that stays cheap to run—and stays affordable because it is owned by that community.
I mentioned earlier the damage that this Government have done to social housing. Right to buy was the most incredibly mad—I am using “mad” again, sorry; it was a very bad idea. I say that even though I live in a flat that somebody else bought under right to buy and it is great; it is in a 1950s council block, I still have loads of council tenants as my neighbours and it is a wonderful place to live because it is actually built quite well. However, right to buy was a disaster and we have to recognise that. Home ownership is not the be-all and end-all that the Tories seem to think it is.
I have given the Government three ideas. I would like to know why they will not implement them very quickly.
Lord Sikka (Lab)
My Lords, I thank my noble friend Lord Eatwell for tabling this debate. The major reason for the erosion of our social capital and the undermining of social cohesion is the state-sponsored squeeze on household income. In 1976, workers’ share of GDP, in the form of wages and salaries, was 65.1%. The ONS reminds us that just before the pandemic that had declined to 48.7%—a decline unmatched in any other industrialised country. Some 16 million people could now be living in poverty and therefore excluded from social consumption, with dire consequences for building a sustainable economy.
Huge amounts of wealth have been transferred from labour to capital. Indeed, the state itself has been restructured; it has become a guarantor not of the provision of public services but of corporate profits, as evidenced by PFI, privatisations and outsourcing. At the same time there is virtually no concern in state policy about the declining share attributed to labour, so labour’s share of GDP is being eroded. Hopefully, the Minister will tell us how the Government are going to increase labour’s share of GDP. Just this week Sainsbury’s CEO was paid £3.8 million—treble the salary that he collected last year—while workers got only 5.3%. Again, the Government have no policy for reducing income inequalities.
Taxation policy has been grievously misused to impoverish the masses. The poorest 10% of households pay 47.6% of their income in direct and indirect taxes compared with 33.5% for the richest 10%. I hope the Minister will tell us when the Government are going to end such regressive policies.
The Government target the poor for taxes while letting off the rich and big business. HMRC recently admitted that it has no idea how much tax is evaded by wealthy residents holding £850 billion in assets and accounts overseas, including £570 billion in tax havens. The Government are also soft on the tax-avoidance industry. I have asked many times, but the Minister has been unable to name even one big accounting firm that has been investigated, fined or prosecuted for peddling unlawful tax-avoidance schemes—that is the judgment reached by the courts.
We are now in a situation where work is penalised by government tax policy. A worker on gross wages of £30,000 takes home £24,205 after paying income tax and national insurance. In contrast, a speculator with £30,000 of capital gains takes home £28,230 after paying only £1,770 in capital gains tax—no national insurance is payable. There is absolutely no justification for such anti-work and anti-worker policies—yet all of this is central to what the Government do.
Unsurprisingly, work does not pay—41% of claimants of universal credit are in work, and 68% of families living in poverty include at least one working adult. I have received wage slips from people who are holding three jobs simultaneously and still cannot make ends meet. The Government say that the number of jobs has increased. Well, perhaps the Minister would like to meet the people who are holding down three jobs and still cannot make ends meet. No economy can thrive when the income of the masses is squeezed, and the Government need to attend to this.
We have had a decade of low interest rates and low inflation, but this has not stimulated investment in productive assets. The UK invests around 16.9% of its GDP in productive assets, compared with 20.1% in EU countries, and this low investment leads to low productivity. The Government give over 1,100 tax reliefs but have little or no idea of their economic benefits. They have become tools of tax avoidance, with accountants weaving their way through them.
Companies appease capital markets by focusing on the short term. In 1970, major companies paid out £10 of each £100 of profits in dividends; by 2015, that number reached between £60 and £70, and in some companies it is now 80%. How will these companies invest? How will the Government check this short-termism?
In conclusion, the Government need to change their economic policies. Policies that have plunged the country into crisis cannot deliver the solutions.
Viscount Stansgate (Lab)
My Lords, I rise to support my noble friend Lord Eatwell, who made a masterly speech in introducing this debate—to which there has been, if I may put it this way, a rather professorial aspect. I rather share the view of my noble friend Lord Davies that it was a little on the intimidating side—although I should say that I myself have had a lot of storage problems in life, partly because I have not yet thrown away my undergraduate essays. Of course, this is also a timely debate, not least because of yesterday’s OECD report predicting that the UK economy will slow down and that the issues we are facing today will only get worse.
In my brief contribution, I will emphasise a few of the basic facts about the current increases in the cost of living. Yesterday’s news of the biggest rise in the price of petrol in a single day for 17 years provides an ample reminder that the phrase “cost of living crisis” really means something to people. I have found that filling up my car costs more than £100, and I have the receipt to prove it—which makes me feel really old, because I can remember when petrol was two shillings and 11 pence a gallon.
Whatever the nature of the political debate about whether the Government are doing enough to mitigate the effects of these rises, it is important in this debate to get some of the basic facts on the record. Like other Members here, I am indebted to the House of Lords Library for its impartial assessment of the facts, and I hope that it will help the debate if some of these find their way into Hansard.
In late April, the Office for National Statistics published the findings of a survey undertaken in March that found the following. First, nine in 10 adults reported an increase in their cost of living in the previous month, compared with around six in 10 the previous November. Secondly, nearly a quarter of adults reported that it was “very difficult” or “difficult” to pay their usual household bills in the last month, compared with a year ago—an increase of 17% since last November.
Thirdly, around four in 10 of those who paid energy bills reported that it was “very difficult” or “somewhat difficult” to afford them. Heaven knows, this is only going to get worse. I add here one extra point: it is scandalous that people on prepayment meters, some of whom are the poorest in our society, continue to face utterly unjustifiable discrimination by being forced to pay more for their energy, at a time when energy costs are rising sharply, and will do so again in the autumn. If the Minister can find time when she replies to address the unfairness of prepayment meters, I would appreciate it.
According to the ONS survey, 30% of adults paying off a mortgage, a loan or rent on shared ownership reported that it was “very difficult” or “somewhat difficult” to afford housing costs compared to November. Some 17% of adults reported borrowing more money or using more credit than they did a year ago; and 43% of all adults reported that they would not be able to save any money in the next 12 months—the highest reported figure since the question was first asked in March 2020.
On 23 March—the very day the Chancellor introduced his Spring Statement—the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast that real household disposable incomes per person will fall by 2.2% in 2022-23, which would be the largest fall in a single financial year since 1956. This forecast was based on a projection that inflation will reach a high of 8.7% in the fourth quarter of this year, but we all know it is likely to be more.
Other bodies have reported on the current situation. The Institute for Government has reported that rising prices for living essentials have disproportionately affected poorer households, which spend more of their disposable income on food and energy and have less flexibility than richer households to absorb price increases. It is not as though the Government are responsible for every aspect of the rising cost of living. Of course they are not, and I am not suggesting they are. The effect of the Russian war in Ukraine is something no Government could reasonably have been prepared for. Its consequent impact, as we can already see, on grain availability, never mind the price, is a very serious aspect of what we currently face. However, tax and benefit changes and higher interest rates are the responsibility of this Government and they have further affected incomes and the capacity of household budgets to absorb rising living costs. We await to hear what the Minister says regarding current government policy.
There is one issue I want to raise before finishing. The rising cost of food and energy, as I say, disproportionately affects the lower-income members of our society and means their choice about what to eat is being adversely affected. I have heard people talk about being at their wits end when trying to save money. When it comes to the food they buy, to be told that they should “shop around” is an utterly inadequate response to the crisis they face in their daily lives. The use of food banks speaks for itself. People are desperate for help and, unsurprisingly, they are changing their food habits in the light of the rising cost of basic foodstuffs.
We heard earlier this week in this House about the buy-one-get-one-free policy. I have no time to talk about that now, so I will come to my final point. Today’s cost of living crisis will, in time, become a health crisis. We are storing up future health problems as people understandably react to the rising cost of living by changing their healthy eating habits. We all know that you can eat a pack of biscuits and get the calories you need for a day. That is not a healthy meal.
I hope that when the Minister replies, she will acknowledge the risks to the health of people who are being forced to eat increasingly unhealthy meals to save money. I do not want to take part in a future debate on a health crisis in which we look back on what is happening today and wish we had done more to prevent it.
Baroness Kramer (LD)
My Lords, when we discuss the cost of living crisis, we often talk in narrow economic terms, but this debate gives us the chance to look at the human impact. I thank the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, for that opportunity, although I join the noble Lord, Lord Davies, and the noble Viscount, Lord Stansgate, in being rather intimidated by the intellectual quality of so many of the speeches. I shall do my best.
I am also thankful to the noble Viscount, Lord Stansgate, for laying out, as the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, did too, the background economic crisis in which we currently sit, with inflation at 10%, the highest in the G7; rising interest rates; a further drop in business investment; and the slowest growth in the G20 except for Russia—and, as the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, pointed out, no growth at all according to the OECD.
I want to pick up first on some of the issues developed by the noble Lords, Lord Griffiths and Lord Howarth, regarding the impact on those who are the most vulnerable in our society—the people on the lowest incomes. The OBR Welfare Trends Report, and the Government’s own work, states:
“The lag in benefit uprating in the context of rapidly rising inflation means that non-pensioner benefit rates are forecast to be 6 to 7 per cent lower in real terms this year than they were in 2019-20. This would be a deeper trough than in the wake of any of the preceding three recessions”.
That gives us some sense of the extraordinary scale of the problem so many people are facing.
Picking up on issues raised by the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of St Albans, according to the Food Foundation, nearly half the households on universal credit have experienced food insecurity in the past six months. This statistic really left me aghast—that almost one in 20 of all British households say that members of their household have gone a whole day without eating because they could not afford or get access to food. Of course, that feeds into the nutrition problem that the noble Viscount, Lord Stansgate, underscored.
No one has particularly mentioned those with mental health issues. Very sadly, this affects an increasing part of our community, given the impact of Covid. The Money and Mental Health Policy Institute has taken a deep look at this issue, and its results are shocking. It says that there are deep links between money and mental health and that:
“A greater share of people with mental health problems are in debt, and those debts are harder to manage”.
It also says that:
“The stakes are incredibly high, with strong connections between financial difficulties and suicidal thoughts or attempts”.
I shall pick up on another issue, which feeds a little bit into the discussion of social capital as glue, which the noble Lord, Lord Griffiths, expanded on. A quick survey of the impact of extraordinary price rises, especially for the basics such as energy and food, absolutely makes it clear that we are not all in this together. The IFS has made the point that the 1% highest paid workers have been pulling away from the rest of us. This point was picked up by the noble Lord, Lord Davies, and to some extent by the noble Lord, Lord Sikka. At a time when most people are finding that wage increases are tiny—and one of those noble Lords made the point that real wages have actually declined—the City is once again an exception, with the FT reporting that bonuses paid to the UK’s bankers, insurance brokers and other financial sector workers have hit a record high and are rising six times faster than average wages in the UK.
I am especially concerned about the impact of all this on young people. As the Resolution Foundation has said, they were the
“hardest hit by the economic impact of the pandemic”.
Many have bounced back, and the furlough scheme played an important role, but we hear that
“1 in 3 young people who experienced worklessness during lockdown have returned to atypical contracts, which often means insecure work”.
We also hear that
“the number of young people dropping out of education and the labour market altogether has risen—especially young men”.
I do not think that I had recognised that; it is a very high-risk issue. Some 50,000 young men have quit both education and labour. Some of that may be associated with work/life balance. I buy very much into everything the noble Lord, Lord Brooke, said about needing to rethink how work is structured. That is part of social capital. But the loss of those people and the impact on social mobility is really important.
Again, let me pick up the Financial Times, because that had active quotes from young people:
“the disparities are just going to grow, the wealthy are going to grow wealthier and those that aren’t will get more and more removed.”
There is a sense of real disenfranchisement among so many of our young people, which I suggest is really dangerous. We risk a real rift between the generations. The disparity in economic security is already compounding an alienation that has risen in response to our slow response to climate change, as people realise they are going to bear the brunt of all this inaction in the future, as well as deep generational divisions, which are inherent in Brexit and which often get glossed over but are really deep and significant, if you look at the surveys of young people and their opinions.
We are also seeing self-employed people hit harder than employed people. According to IPSE, the Association of Independent Professionals and the Self-Employed, a quarter of self-employed people only have enough money to cover basic costs for three months if they are unable to work. Combine that with the impact of Brexit on trade, hitting a lot of the supply chains that involve self-employed people, and recent changes to IR35, we have, according to IPSE, seen hundreds of thousands of solo self-employed people leave the industry. Self-employment, since 2010, has been the primary source of new jobs in the UK, particularly in crucial future sectors including IT and the creative sector. If we have this crash in self-employment, the whole economy is seriously put at risk.
Small businesses are also bearing the brunt, and they are genuine engines of the economy in the UK. I quote the British Chambers of Commerce:
“For business, the toxic mix of inflation, raw material costs and supply chain disruption is the flip-side of the coin to the problems facing consumers. Unless steps are also taken to ease business costs, they will likely feed into the inflationary pressure on the economy”.
Last time I was in the debate, I quoted some of the BCC’s reports on the indebtedness that is beginning to drag down one small business after another.
We have been asked to come up with ideas, and I have to say this is an area where I have to do a great deal more work. But I am interested in something that has not been raised at all here, which is the idea of basic minimum services. It strikes me as something really worth exploring, possibly with more potential than universal basic income, because it addresses the problems of the poorest. How much does it cost to have a roof over your head and decent food on your table, to be able to access health and the basics of a lifestyle? That is an area we have to explore.
It also leads me to think we need to rethink the way we structure public finances, because as we change society, we have such a narrow concept of what an investment is rather than day-to-day spending. To me, education is investment, not day-to-day spending, for example. The transition to a green agenda, which the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of St Albans raised, which may often look like day-to-day spending, is again more in the investment category and needs to be treated completely differently in public finances.
I am coming to the end of the time I can spend, but I think there is a great deal of opportunity here to explore some new ideas and recognise we are in a changing era. We have to respond to a world that is fundamentally different from that which existed ten years ago and which, at least in my case, formed the framework for a lot of my thinking. New thinking, I do think, is required.
Lord Tunnicliffe (Lab)
My Lords, let me begin by congratulating my noble friend Lord Eatwell on securing this debate. I am grateful to the other noble Lords who have participated. This discussion comes at an important time. Parties of all stripes talk about building back better after the pandemic. If we are to do that, we must, as the debate title suggests, consider how to boost social capital and make our economy more resilient to future shocks.
Earlier, the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of St Albans made a particularly powerful contribution about the challenges faced by many individuals and communities across our country. The cost of living crisis is at the forefront of our minds at present, and rightly so. Even with the energy measures announced by the Chancellor before Recess, that crisis is going nowhere. Energy and other costs will rise further in the coming months and that may require further interventions from the Treasury.
However, we must acknowledge that as well as putting household budgets under strain, the current economic situation is subjecting people to numerous other pressures: there are concerns that personal finances may be taking a toll on people’s mental health; it may impact on the frequency and quality of interactions with friends, family and neighbours; and it may change how people interact with civic processes and institutions or core public services. Addressing these issues and, in doing so, developing social capital is not straightforward at the best of times. It requires time, political will and appropriate funding. Few in this country would consider these to be the best of times.
It is worth repeating that, despite the Government’s protestations, the current economic context is not solely the result of global trends and the war in Ukraine. As other noble Lords have noted during the debate, the situation has not been helped by the Government’s recent changes to tax and benefits, which have left many low-income people worse off in real terms. Neither has it been helped, as observed by my noble friend in his introductory remarks, by the fundamental weakening of some of our most important institutions and public services since 2010. It may not have been the policy intention, but the austerity agenda caused lasting damage to our National Health Service, to the education system and to communities through cuts to local councils and other services. We cannot have economic resilience in a broad sense if core public services lack it in their own right.
Many noble Lords will have seen recent footage of an A&E nurse at the Princess Alexandra Hospital in Harlow. She was filmed informing patients that they faced a wait of up to 13 hours, and that there might not even be a bed for them when eventually assessed and admitted. A 13-hour wait in A&E is not the result of a Covid backlog, nor, sadly, is it an isolated incident in 2022 Britain. Rather, it is symptomatic of wider issues with the direction of the health services since 2010, including the watering down of proven targets and a failure to properly address related issues such as social care. The Government argue that they are trying to address those issues through the health and social care levy, but that is taking more out of people’s pockets at the worst possible time.
There have been many other signs of our ever-decreasing economic resilience. While efforts are being made to measure things such as social capital, GDP growth remains the dominant economic indicator. Nobody can dispute that the UK economy has endured a disappointing time since the global financial crisis: we have averaged just 1.8% annual GDP growth since the change of Government in 2010. While other countries’ economies rebound strongly from Covid, our recovery has been inconsistent and stop-start. That cannot be blamed solely on Covid restrictions, as some other countries moved earlier and maintained them for longer. Although it is true that there is a global surge in inflation, the most recent figures suggest the UK is performing worse than any other G7 nation. The end-result of these different factors is that the UK economy now stands on the brink of recession. Indeed, just yesterday the OECD confirmed these fears, warning that growth will grind to a halt next year, with only Russia performing worse than the UK among the G20 nations.
An economic downturn would inflict even more pain on people up and down the country at the worst possible time. Of course, there is no single answer to the challenges we face. However, as I said earlier, change can be achieved given time, political will and funding. In her response, I am sure that the Minister will cite the Government’s levelling-up agenda and their spending on related initiatives. It will take time to measure the impacts of that agenda, but it is hard to have any confidence in it when the earlier White Paper left so many questions unanswered.
Elsewhere, the Chancellor has acknowledged the need to boost productivity, calling for increases to capital investment and a rapid improvement of skills in the workforce. Those ambitions are worthy, but do not seem to be backed up by concrete initiatives to bring them about. While the answer can never be public spending alone, we know that public investment in key sectors of the economy not only produces jobs but also unlocks private sector money. This has been acknowledged by the Treasury itself through its establishment of the UK Infrastructure Bank, which aims to achieve crowding in of private funds. There is no magic money tree, but there is room for spending wisely, taxing fairly and getting the economy firing on all cylinders.
The Chancellor recently adopted Labour’s policy of a windfall tax on energy producers, and perhaps he could adopt another. Is now not the time to accelerate investment in insulating homes and taking other steps to fight climate change? The first step would create immediate jobs, while sustained investment in the green transition would facilitate the high-skilled roles of the future. The Government clearly need to take control of the current economic situation. If they were to adopt some of the suggestions outlined today, perhaps the UK could achieve the higher levels of growth, resilience and social capital so desperately desired by my noble friend Lord Eatwell.
Baroness Penn (Con)
My Lords, I too thank the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, for bringing about this important debate. If the noble Lord, Lord Davies of Brixton, thinks that it is intimidating to contribute, maybe he has some sympathy for the Minister trying to reply.
It is right to start with the first part of the question put before us: the cost of living challenges that millions of families up and down the country face. They are worried about high inflation, and many are struggling to make their incomes stretch. As the Chancellor previously set out, the Government remain deeply committed to helping with those challenges. We stand behind people, and while we cannot solve all the problems of inflation—especially the complex and global supply chain challenges and other causes of inflation—we will help the British people where we can, just as we did throughout the pandemic. However, alleviating these pressures alone will not be enough. We must continue our work to address the structural challenges that make some of our communities and households more vulnerable to these kinds of shocks. Our levelling-up agenda is precisely about ensuring that more communities are economically and socially resilient to the current and future shocks they may face.
It would be wrong for me to pretend that the cost of living pressures that we are all facing will soon subside. Worldwide shocks continue to be a major force in why we are experiencing such high inflation, as noble Lords have noted. Responsible fiscal policy is also essential for controlling inflation. It must be appropriately utilised to ensure that we meet our fiscal rules and keep public finances sustainable in the long run, while supporting the country in times of need. That is why the Government are providing support for the cost of living, but it is timely and targeted at those with the greatest need. In the announcement made a couple of weeks ago by the Chancellor, the Government said that the majority of households will benefit from at least £550 of support this financial year to help with rising energy prices. In addition to that, the most vulnerable households will receive at least £1,200 of support in total this year to help with the cost of living.
The noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, talked about the uprating of benefits, and the support that we have provided through this scheme will be more generous than if the uprating of benefits were brought forward from its planned date. Alongside the support for energy bills that is being provided now, the Chancellor has made clear that, next year, benefits will be uprated with the September inflation figure, which we expect to be high —and higher than the following April, so we have that commitment to those who are least well-off. My noble friend Lord Griffiths made the point that the long-term solution is to get inflation under control. I may have had only one noble friend on my Benches to support me, but I am glad to say that I agreed with everything he said.
The Government have a three-pronged approach, as expressed by my noble friend. In terms of setting interest rates, there is the independent monetary policy of the Bank of England; it is worth noting that, since the Bank of England got its independence, inflation has averaged 2%. There is also responsible fiscal policy, which involves investment in public services and support for the most vulnerable, but it must be paid for and within our fiscal rules. I thought the comments made by the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, about the health and social care levy, and the link for the public between the taxes they pay and the services they receive, was an interesting one. The Government do produce a summary for people of where their taxes go.
Several noble Lords talked about fiscal policy and the balance between spending on public services and tax cuts. The noble Lord, Lord Desai, gave us a good history lesson about the Thatcher years and the affordability of tax cuts. My right honourable friend the Chancellor has been absolutely clear that he is a Thatcherite, not a Reaganite, and all tax cuts must be affordable. After the difficult years of the pandemic and the unprecedented support that the Government put in place for people, we had to make some difficult decisions to consolidate our public finances. I disagree with the noble Lord, Lord Desai, when he says tax cuts are for the rich. One of the first decisions that the Chancellor took last autumn was to cut the universal credit taper rate, which is, in effect, a tax cut for some of the poorest in our society. As the cost of living challenges became more apparent this spring, we increased the national insurance threshold, while keeping the health and social care levy in place. That has allowed us to provide more support for the poorest in our society, while also ensuring that there is funding for our National Health Service, which we heard about a lot in this debate, to improve outcomes for people after the pandemic and to invest in social care, which is a pressing area for reform in this country.
I do not think the noble Lords, Lord Desai and Lord Brooke, or the noble Baroness, Lady Jones, will be surprised to hear that the Government do not agree with them on the idea of a universal basic income.
In addition to the two approaches of an independent monetary policy and responsible fiscal policy, there is also supply-side activism. The Government’s energy security strategy will, over the long term, reduce bills by increasing energy supply and improving energy efficiency. We heard from the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of St Albans about the current energy crisis as an opportunity to invest in renewables. He will know as well as I do that the UK is the G7 country that has gone furthest and fastest in decarbonisation, but of course we have a lot more to do. He is right that we heard in a Question earlier today about the challenges of decarbonising our homes and buildings, but the Government are committed to tackling this through the heating and building strategy. And it is not all bad news on that front: the most effective part of that scheme was the social building decarbonisation fund, which has the joint benefit of reducing bills for those who may need the most support.
The right reverend Prelate asked a specific question about the feed-in tariff price; if I may, I will write to him on that. The noble Baroness, Lady Jones, also gave me several suggestions in this area which I will take back to the Government.
My noble friend Lord Griffiths asked what the Government are doing to ensure responsible lending, as people may turn to credit in these times. The Government legislated to require the FCA to introduce a cap on the cost of payday loans, which came into force in 2015. We are also taking action to regulate “buy now, pay later” providers, although it is important to note that they provide an interest-free service, so it is not considered high-cost lending. None the less, the pace of expansion of those services means that regulation is important. We have also provided record levels of funding to the Money and Pensions Service this year, which includes free debt advice.
The noble Viscount, Lord Stansgate, asked about prepayment meters. I was asked about this when we announced our support for the cost of living just before the Recess, and was able to reassure noble Lords that the support for energy bills will go to people on prepayment meters, either through being added directly to those meters if they are smart or through vouchers. However, I have an outstanding letter to write on the higher tariffs that people can face on those meters, and I will ensure that all noble Lords receive a copy of that. He also mentioned the impact of cost of living pressures on nutrition. The Government have extended free school meals and the holiday activity and food programme will be really important in ensuring that children have access to healthy meals not just in term-time but in holidays.
The noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, talked about the pressures of the cost of living on mental health. After the pandemic, the Government instituted the mental health recovery plan, which has seen significant additional investment in mental health services in 2021-22. As part of the long-term plan, we have committed to increasing spending on mental health as a proportion of health service spending each and every year.
In terms of government action on the cost of living, we will continue to tackle the underlying, long-term factors driving cost of living challenges. In addition to these measures, we must also focus on building successful and resilient places. That is at the heart of the Government’s levelling-up White Paper. The noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, has given us the opportunity to discuss social capital, and the right reverend Prelate talked about the work of Robert Putnam, whom I was lucky enough to study under. I think we actually need a bit more sociology in our policy-making; fashions for it have come and gone in people’s thinking. I have found that it can be a really useful tool for analysis, but it can be a much more challenging job to turn that into concrete policy solutions. That is something the Government have been trying to do through their levelling-up agenda.
The levelling-up White Paper highlights six capitals, including social capital, which must be strong in order for places to flourish—if one is deficient, it has knock-on impacts on others. The 12 levelling-up missions will support stronger places by 2030, by boosting productivity, jobs and pay, spreading opportunity, improving public services, restoring local pride and empowering local leaders. For example, those places with poor educational outcomes often experience lower pay and productivity, and are some of the areas where people are hit hardest by cost of living pressures. As part of our levelling-up strategy, we have 55 education investment areas across England, in the lowest-performing third of places, to which we will give additional investment.
However, I need to challenge the picture painted in this debate of education in this country. Some 87% of schools are now rated good or outstanding, up from 68% in 2010. On inputs, we are the top spender in the G7 on schools and colleges, but it is also about outputs—from 2011 to 2019, the gap between disadvantaged children and others narrowed at each assessed stage from primary to secondary school. There is a different side of the education picture to the one we have heard today.
My noble friend Lord Griffiths also expressed very well the importance of strong, empowered local institutions. We are extending and deepening devolution in England. Our mission is that every area that wants one will have a devolution deal by 2030, allowing places to take greater control of their own destiny.
As well as robust institutions, strong economies are also built on strong communities, as we have heard. There is a clear correlation between the most deprived places in the UK and those with the lowest scores for social capital, the lowest scores for positive community relationships and infrastructure, and where there are fewer quality places for people to meet. We are trying to help strengthen the heart of communities through investment in pride in place, and funds such as the levelling-up fund, the UK shared prosperity fund and the towns fund will all enable local authorities to invest in local priorities.
We are significantly increasing spending on arts and culture outside of London, investing in sports pitches and tennis courts across the UK, and taking forward a new national youth guarantee to give young people in England greater opportunities for out-of-school activities. Our new approach to regeneration will see towns across England transformed. The community ownership fund, which notably supported fans of Bury FC to assure the future of their club, has recently been expanded to help more communities take ownership of their treasured local assets.
The levelling-up White Paper is very much the start of a process, not the end of it. Levelling up is now the golden thread throughout our domestic policy. Our forthcoming strategy for community spaces and relationships will further set out our approach to strengthening community infrastructure and social capital across the UK.
This has been a wide-ranging and important debate on an issue of crucial social, as well as economic, importance. I would like to thank all noble Lords for their contributions. The Government’s position on this is clear: levelling up the entire nation and supporting households through the cost-of-living challenges up ahead continue to be a key priority. We have taken significant action this year in terms of support for the cost of living, with £37 billion of support announced, targeted at those most in need, and in the longer term, in terms of social capital, through the commitments made in our levelling-up White Paper. There is much more to do, but improving living standards, restoring local pride, spreading opportunity and empowering local leaders across the country are at the heart of this Government’s agenda.
Lord Eatwell (Lab)
My Lords, I am grateful to all participants in this debate, which has been I think both timely and interesting.
There have been two background themes in what people have had to say. One has been concern about the very bad place that Britain is in now, whether we are referring to inflation, as did the noble Lord, Lord Griffiths, and my noble friends Lord Davies and Lord Stansgate; whether we are discussing energy issues and how the crisis is perhaps pushing energy and green issues in the wrong direction, as was suggested by the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of St Albans, the noble Baroness, Lady Jones, and my noble friend Lord Tunnicliffe; or whether we are referring to the issue of trust in society, going back to Robert Putnam’s famous Bowling Alone—and the way in which the glue of trust is being eroded by inflation as the noble Lord, Lord Griffiths, most powerfully argued—about which the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of St Albans, was also concerned, as was the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, in particular with her reference to young people, and my noble friend Lord Tunnicliffe. There has also been the overall despair at the rise in poverty in this country at this time, expressed very powerfully again by the noble Lord, Lord Griffiths, by my noble friends Lord Sikka, Lord Davies and Lord Stansgate, and by the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer. This is the sort of desperate concern about the position we are in.
But the other theme has been “Well, what are we going to do about it? How do we rebuild?” Do we learn, as the noble Lord, Lord Desai, argued, from when it happened before, with respect to the experience of the 1970s? Are we willing to undertake the sort of radical reconstruction of our economy and our society, of the basic arrangements by which this country operates, to create the resilience so that this does not happen again on the same scale of desperation as we have had now?
My noble friends Lord Howarth, Lord Sikka and Lord Tunnicliffe made reference to issues of taxation, and there has been discussion of basic income as a way of completely reforming the underlying structure of support in society. But looking forward, the noble Baroness, Lady Penn, having acknowledged and discussed the extremely difficult position of the economy, society and particularly the poorer members of our community —by which I mean not the bottom 10% but the bottom 40% or 50% of society, a good half, who are suffering—focused very much on the levelling-up White Paper. This was something of a surprise for me, because I was very struck when the levelling-up White Paper was published that the communities to which it referred regarded it as a complete damp squib. It was very striking that this central theme in government policy seemed to be so amorphous or inadequate.
The noble Baroness is right that we need a Government to provide real economic leadership for change and to provide some credible vision for a better future. We have plenty of romantic and colourful visions coming from the Prime Minister—it is just that none of them is credible. We need a real rethink. This could be part of her levelling-up agenda, and that could be turned into credibility, but it has to be part of a wider concern about economic change. We cannot have a situation where we sit back and allow the largest chip-producing company in the world—a British company—to be sold off to a Saudi-funded hedge fund. We cannot any longer tolerate the position in which Britain is just blown around with the storms of international economic markets.
I hope that what we can take from this debate is both the enormous concern around the House—I am leaning very heavily on the noble Lord, Lord Griffiths, when I say “around the House”—about the situation in which the people of Britain find themselves, and the equally great concern that we have to change. We have to think about a different way of organising our economic and social structure. I thank everyone who has participated in the debate.
Health and Social Care Leadership Review
(2 years, 6 months ago)
Lords ChamberRead Full debate Read Hansard Text Read Debate Ministerial Extracts
Baroness Merron (Lab)
My Lords, I thank everyone who works in the NHS for their continued dedication and skill. We owe them our gratitude. I also put on record my thanks to General Sir Gordon Messenger and Dame Linda Pollard for leading this very important review.
We know that we are at the foothills of a huge programme of NHS reform and reorganisation, which your Lordships’ House carefully scrutinised during the passage of the Health and Care Act. It came through loud and clear that the healthcare system requires proper leadership and a workforce that has enough staff to do the job, something that we know is not the case at present nor is suitably in the pipeline.
I confirm that these Benches support the review’s seven recommendations and welcome that the Secretary of State has already agreed to implement them. However, the critical thing will be to see whether, when and how the proposals are implemented and we will keep a close eye on this. Regrettably, we have too often seen the commissioning of a review by Ministers only to see those same Ministers drag their feet on implementing the recommendations or shelve them completely. Will the Minister give us today a firm date for when he intends to publish the plan to implement the seven recommendations?
The social care survey from the Association of Directors of Adult Social Services shows that more than 500,000 people are waiting for a social care assessment in England, and we need swift action to alleviate this. Will the Minister explain why the review has not covered leadership in social care or primary care in sufficient detail? Is not this a missed opportunity?
Of course, this review is just one part of dealing with the crisis that the NHS faces. New staff getting an induction when they first join the NHS is sensible, but that is just a basic requirement of any organisation worth its salt. We all know that there are bigger, real mountains to climb. Waiting lists are at a record high: 6.4 million in the queue for treatment—nearly one in 10 people—patient satisfaction is at its lowest since 1997, and there have been longer waiting times for cancer treatment in every year since 2010. So it goes on.
There are currently 106,000 vacancies in the NHS, and staff are leaving in droves. In many specialities, they are leaving faster than they can be recruited to those vacancies. It remains to be seen how a shake-up for management will help our health outcomes and alleviate pain and suffering when there are not enough front-line staff. This has to be the Government’s focus.
Yesterday, the Secretary of State talked about the 15-year workforce strategy that he has commissioned. When can we expect it? It would be much appreciated if the Minister could put more flesh on the bones of this brief reference yesterday. Who will be leading this and what will be its terms of reference?
It would be negligent not to mention the role that managers played in the North East Ambulance Service cover-up. The Government are still considering whether to launch a review. Will the Minister provide an update? Surely, if management is to be improved, there is a need to learn from the times when it fails. The incidents at the North East Ambulance Service are a clear case in point.
Finally, it is regrettable that NHS senior leadership still does not represent the diversity of the population that it serves. How will the Government drastically improve equality, diversity and inclusion? And how will the best leaders—whether or not they have a so-called good network—be encouraged, prepared and brought into the most challenging roles where we need to see them?
These Benches welcome the review and its recommendations, but there are many outstanding questions while the NHS is in dire need of support and a workforce able to meet the demands and serve the people who need it.
The Deputy Speaker (Baroness Fookes) (Con)
My Lords, the noble Baroness, Lady Brinton, is taking part remotely and I now invite her to speak.
Baroness Brinton (LD) [V]
My Lords, from these Benches we also thank all the staff in the NHS and social care sectors, and specific thanks go to General Sir Gordon Messenger and Dame Linda Pollard for this excellent report. We too support the recommendations in the report.
The Liberal Democrats believe our NHS is in desperate need of support. We need to remember that there are well over 100,000 NHS staff vacancies—and an equally worrying number in the social care sector—and we are concerned about the impact of these vacancies on patient safety.
With millions now waiting for treatment and waiting times increasing, it is more important than ever that the Government address the workforce crisis facing health and social care. We have just come this afternoon from debating two key issues in Grand Committee that the NHS faces: managing RSV and other respiratory infections, and managing neurological conditions.
The two sectors have serious staff shortages in clinical health and that is replicated right across the NHS. After a gruelling couple of years, many staff are considering leaving or retiring early. The Government need to get a grip on this workforce crisis and seriously start planning for the long term, giving the crisis the attention it deserves. I too echo the question from the noble Baroness, Lady Merron, about when the workforce planning draft will first be presented to Parliament. It is urgently needed.
This leadership report is blunt. It highlights the current absence of accepted standards and structures for the managerial cohort within the NHS and says that it has
“long been a profession that compares unfavourably to the clinical careers in the way it is trained, structured and perceived”.
And that is not just inside the NHS. Far too many people—even Ministers—slam managers as unseen, expensive bureaucrats. This report calls that out, as well as recognising that consistent standards and improvement are needed. That is welcome.
The recommendation for a new national entry-level induction for all who join health and social care, as well as national career programmes for managers right across the sector, is very welcome, but what plans do the Government have now for the interim? The crisis is with us—we see it every night on the television news—and the benefits of training and culture change will take some time to bear fruit.
The executive summary advocates a step change in the way the principles of equality, diversity and inclusion are embedded as the personal responsibility of every leader and every member of staff. It goes on to say that good practice is by no means rare but it is not consistent throughout the NHS, and it raises particular concerns about the experience of those with disabilities or race-protected characteristics. We agree with the report’s proposals that EDI should become a universal indicator of how the system is working.
The fourth recommendation in the report on the simplified standard appraisal system is also welcomed, alongside consistent management standards and consistent accredited training. The talent management recommendations are also excellent.
We welcome any measures that seek to improve the way the NHS works, such as the Government’s pledge to build more hospitals, but many of our senior NHS managers struggle with failing buildings that, rather like our Parliamentary Estate, need urgent repair or replacement—but until then they have to try to make them safe. My own local hospital, Watford General, is a case in point. With that in mind, will the Minister please tell us how he proposes to unblock the delays to meet his Government’s pledge of 40 new hospitals by 2030?
Yesterday, the Secretary of State likened the NHS to the now-defunct video store Blockbuster, saying that the country has a
“Blockbuster healthcare system in the age of Netflix”
and that things would change by 2030. To date, only six projects that predate the Prime Minister’s premiership have started construction, despite the Government’s 2019 election pledge that 40 would be built by 2030.
A core theme of the report is collaboration. It reports pockets of excellent practice but also pockets of stuck and poor practice. The report is clear that a real culture change is needed now. In some parts of the NHS there is still an “ignore if not invented here” approach that must be challenged and changed.
Leadership is indeed key to a well-functioning health service, but having enough staff to care for patients is critical to reducing waiting times and improving patient outcomes. Ministers seem keen only on tinkering with leadership programmes. They seem to be ignoring the huge number of vacancies in the NHS and recently refused to write workforce planning and projections into law. So what additional steps will they take to increase the number of doctors and GPs working in our health service in the next nine months? Workforce shortages across the health and social care sector are leading to long wait times and poor outcomes.
Our NHS leaders have done a sterling job steering the NHS through the pandemic and now they are trying to tackle record-breaking waiting times. Leadership is pivotal to the success of any organisation, and the example set by the head of the organisation plays a huge part in that success.
It is a shame that the report focuses only on the NHS and not on the department, because it is important that we remember that two areas over which the Secretary of State’s predecessor, Matt Hancock, had power were PPE and test and trace, both of which were extremely badly handled in leadership terms. Does the Minister agree that leadership starts with Ministers? In an exchange between the Secretary of State and General Sir Gordon Messenger published yesterday, the Secretary of State said, “Leadership is critical”.
Finally, the most welcome chapter of the report is the final one, chapter 4, on implementation. The authors set out a clear route map for making this happen through the establishment of the review implementation office. I note that, yesterday, the Secretary of State said that he accepted all the recommendations. From these Benches, we will hold him to account for the resources necessary for the review implementation office to deliver them.
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department of Health and Social Care (Lord Kamall) (Con)
My Lords, I thank the noble Baronesses for their questions and for their general welcome for the tone of the Messenger report. I also pay tribute, as did the noble Baronesses, to Sir Gordon Messenger and Dame Linda Pollard for their combination of leadership skills as well as clinical and medical knowledge. I pay tribute too to the number of people who were consulted across the system who fed into the report.
I shall try to address some of the questions that were asked. The Messenger report looked at both health and social care. It was interesting that reference was made to reports being published but nothing being acted on. I think we can be proud that, for the first time, we are now aiming, as is set in law following the passing of the Health and Care Act, for a properly integrated health and care system. We can now work to that properly across the system.
In December 2021, the Government published their strategy for the adult social care workforce in the People at the Heart of Care: Adult Social Care Reform White Paper. Our strategy aims to create a well-trained and developed workforce, a healthy and supported workforce, and a sustainable and recognised workforce. Work that has already started includes the review of the existing workforce and the voluntary register to look at the workforce landscape and the various qualifications. We also want to look at how we make sure that the workforce is professionalised and that people feel attracted to it as a career. The strategy is backed up by an historic investment of at least £500 million for new measures over three years—noble Lords will be aware of that.
Both noble Baronesses raised workforce planning. During the debates on the Health and Care Bill, I made it quite clear that where we disagreed with some of the amendments was on the frequency of the reports that was called for. Let me be quite clear about what we are doing in terms of workforce. First, we have the Health Education England strategic framework to support long-term planning. The department commissioned HEE to review and renew the long-term strategic framework for the health and regulated social care workforce—the right skills and the right values and behaviours to deliver world-leading services. The work is nearing its final stages and will be published before the Summer Recess.
Building on this, we have also commissioned NHS England and NHS Improvement to develop a long-term plan for the workforce for the next 15 years, including long-term supply projections. We will share the key conclusions of this work as soon as it is ready. Section 41 of the Health and Care Act 2022 gives the Secretary of State a duty to publish a report at a minimum of every five years describing the NHS workforce planning and supply system. The report provided for in that section will increase the transparency and accountability of the workforce planning process. On top of this, rather than everything simply being top down—the person in Whitehall or Westminster telling local services what to do—there is also the bottom-up planning, at trust level and ICS level, looking at the right workforce and skills mixes required on the boards and in the services to deliver the right services to patients.
The noble Baroness referred to the North East Ambulance Service. This highlights why this report was so badly needed. My right honourable friend the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care said yesterday in the other place that he was very concerned by what he has heard about the ambulance service and that he is not satisfied with the review that has already been done. He said that we need a much broader and more powerful review; he will have more to say about this very shortly.
We welcome the report. We have rightly said, as both noble Baronesses have said, that we welcome all the recommendations. To ensure that these are delivered as quickly as possible and with the right impact, an implementation plan co-created across the whole health and social sector is required. This report will therefore be followed by a plan with clear timelines and deadlines for delivery.
I am grateful to both noble Baronesses for raising the issue of discrimination and lack of diversity. It is interesting that our public services post war were rescued by immigrants from Commonwealth countries—from Africa, Asia and the Caribbean—yet, amazingly, we do not see them at the top of these organisations. Why is that? Frankly, we must move away from this position of white people stopping black and Asian people from being promoted and fobbing them off as “diversity officers”. They do not want to be diversity officers. We are good enough to be leaders and we must ensure that this is instilled right through our health and social care system, not just at the bottom level but all the way up. That will be the test of true diversity and true openness to equality.
There has been some positive movement towards tackling discrimination. The NHS people plan established a set of robust and comprehensive initiatives thought to imbed equality, diversity and inclusion. The recruitment and promotion practices have been overhauled and there will be named equality champions, but we must ensure that this is not just fobbing off. We need to see more diversity right at the top of our health and care system.
If I have not answered the noble Baronesses, I will write to them.
The Deputy Speaker (Baroness Fookes) (Con)
My Lords, the noble Baroness, Lady Masham of Ilton, wishes to take part remotely, and this seems a convenient moment to call her.
Baroness Masham of Ilton (CB) [V]
My Lords, I congratulate the Government for instigating this—
The Deputy Speaker (Baroness Fookes) (Con)
My Lords, we appear to have had a break in service, but I think we now have the noble Baroness.
Baroness Masham of Ilton (CB)
It is tragic that so many babies and mothers have died when they should have been safe in hospital. What happened to the standards of care which were required? Fresh young enthusiastic people joining the NHS and those in care should be safe from bullying, harassment and discrimination. If something goes wrong with patients’ treatment and care, should there not be a duty of candour, with openness and honesty? Surely this should be incorporated in leadership education. I hope that it will be.
Lord Kamall (Con)
The noble Baroness is absolutely right that there should be a duty of candour. Noble Lords will remember that during the Health and Care Bill debates there was the debate around the openness of HSIB process. Here we have a difficult balance. On one hand, if someone has acted inappropriately or caused damage, you would want them to be brought to justice but, on the other hand, we know that the NHS has a culture of cover-up when things go wrong. It is great that we praise the NHS when things go well but I have heard too many stories of when things go wrong and clinicians close ranks and cover up.
Sometimes, they gaslight. I was talking about this the other day to a young official in the department and she told me about her friend, a young Afro-Caribbean female, whose baby died during birth. When she complained, the papers suddenly, magically disappeared. How can that happen? We have to make sure that there is real justice, but we have to get the right balance. HSIB makes sure that there is a safe space so people can feel free to come forward, so that we learn from that. Sometimes there may not be justice for the individual, but we can make sure that we avoid a repeat of these incidents. The Ockenden report clearly showed the role that the culture of the organisation played. We must be careful: there should not always be a focus just on numbers; we do not want to train people within the wrong culture and do more damage. We have to tackle all these issues at the same time.
Lord Lilley (Con)
My Lords, I would congratulate the Secretary of State Sajid Javid on presenting this report if it called for fewer full-time equality, diversity and inclusion officers and devoting resources, intention and focus to patients. Sadly, on reading the report, it does not; quite the reverse. It is totally obsessed with EDI. EDI is mentioned three times as frequently as patients. There is no mention of waiting lists, whistleblowers, cover-ups or value for money, and only one reference to efficiency. There is nothing about the lessons of Staffordshire or the failures in the health service—nothing at all. It is about EDI only. Worst of all, it states that demonstrating a commitment to EDI is more important than just technical skills.
It is important that we eliminate discrimination from the health service, but when I am treated, it is the technical skills of the medical staff I am worried about, as it is when those whom I love are being treated. The report sets goals for increasing the representation of underrepresented groups, but no goals for improving outcomes for patients. Worst of all, it proposes using the everyday discrimination scale as an objective tool of management, yet it is entirely subjective and all the academic literature I have found suggests it is completely worthless. Will my noble friend commission another report that will deal with people’s real concerns about the NHS?
Lord Kamall (Con)
I thank my noble friend for the question. It is important that we recognise that not only do we have more doctors and nurses than ever before, but we need staff to be good leaders. That includes understanding diverse workforces and, as I said earlier, making sure that we have good leaders at the top. Why do we have a diverse workforce? In fact, that diversity is not represented right at the top, in the leadership. Sometimes, when you want to change an organisation—I am sorry, but I did an PhD in organisational change—there are a number of aspects and one of them is the culture and the leadership. Sometimes a new leadership comes in that can drive that change in the organisation. It is not just about structures but about making sure that we improve the standard of care we give to people. This issue came up in the report, because we have to have the right leadership and focus on patient care and on making sure that we have a proper integrated health and social care system for patients all the way through their lives.
Lord Brooke of Alverthorpe (Lab)
My Lords, I welcome the report, and particular work needs to be done in the area the Minister has just described. The NHS is very diverse, more than most public sector groupings. Therefore, if there is a problem there, it needs addressing and it should be given high priority.
First, the real issue that worries the public at the moment concerns the little statement sneaked out by the Secretary of State that he has now agreed to a 15-year work strategy being prepared. The public are worried about the great number of unfilled vacancies in the National Health Service. That number continues to rise, and we now have more than 100,000 vacancies. The public expect the Government to move in a number of ways to try to fill those vacancies, rather than simply waiting for a long-term strategy. Will the Minister tell the House what new ideas the Government have to fill the vacancies? I know that is not an easy question to answer.
Secondly, I suggest that the Government have conversations with the agencies, which supply staff to so many different places in the NHS at such high costs, to see whether some accommodation could not be reached with them. Thirdly, I have personally had experience recently of being treated in the private sector. I spent some time talking to the staff, many of whom were ex-NHS and said they would never return to it. I would like to know what work has been done by the Government in exploring the views held by those people who have left NHS service to establish why they have gone, and what they would need to see change in the NHS to encourage them to return to it.
Lord Kamall (Con)
I thank the noble Lord for that question. We should look at the context of the different environment and the challenges that our health service and health and social care system is facing compared to in earlier years. A number of different factors have come together. One is that we have an ageing population and people are living longer but not necessarily living longer well, and therefore, where before the focus was mainly on physical treatments, we are now far more aware of issues like dementia and the challenges presented by ageing populations. On top of that, we are simply aware of more conditions. I have just come out of a debate on neurological conditions, of which I was told that there are probably 600. When I was a child, that probably would have been dismissed—no one would have thought that there were such a number—so there is more awareness of the issues to be treated.
Mental health is now treated more seriously. It was never taken seriously before; it was always about “pull yourself together” or the stiff upper lip, but now we understand that people have mental health conditions. We need to make sure that we have a health and care system, including private and independent, that can meet those needs.
One of the challenges is that we need more doctors and nurses. The funny thing is that we actually have more NHS doctors and nurses than ever before, but we recognise that on top of that we still need more. Investing in the workforce is therefore a key priority.
There is the 15-year plan, as I have said. The NHS also has the people recovery task force to make sure that all NHS staff are not only kept safe but retained. There are a number of initiatives, which I am happy to write to the noble Lord about, about helping staff who feel burned out, as well as retention programmes.
On top of that, we have increased the number of medical school places. We have found that students are sometimes more likely to stay close to areas where they have studied, so new medical schools have opened in some of those places which have found it hard to recruit. We also have more new nurses coming through the system but, despite that, there is still demand for more. We are looking at various ways to improve retention but also attract new staff.
Lord Young of Norwood Green (Lab)
My Lords, I echo the point made by my noble friend Lady Merron about the health service and the people who have done such sterling work within it. After all, they saved my life twice so I certainly recognise that.
However, I have to say that, like the report, the NHS is a bit of a curate’s egg, and we know it; it is good in parts. When it is good, it is very, very good, but when it is bad, it is dreadful—really dreadful. People die unnecessarily, as we saw in the gynaecology scandal at Telford. What worries me about that case is that I still do not see anyone being held to account for those appalling management failures. Even worse than that is the report yesterday from Birmingham of the consultant who was removing non-existent cancers from breasts and went on to practise for years without being uncovered, not only in the NHS but in private practice. We have to ask ourselves how on earth such appalling failures in accountability, management and checking are possible. I would welcome the Minister’s response on that.
I recommend that the Minister look at the Twitter account of a guy called Roy Lilley, because it is worth a look. I will give a flavour of it:
“There’s a problem with bullying and racism in the British Army. A BBC Three documentary shone a light on racism in the Army and there is still the shadow, cast by the events at Deepcut. It’s a hot topic for the Top-Brass. They’ve had reviews and all-sorts to try and stamp it out”—
and they failed. He continues:
“If they can’t fix racism and bullying in a small outfit like the Army, what chance does the NHS have … with around a million and a half people, a budget of about £3bn a week, a million customers a day and if it were a country it would be the thirtieth largest in the world. In the Army, the NHS, sport and wider society we’ll find good people, bad people, energetic, lazy, thieves, thugs, saints, angels, bullies and racists”—
Baroness Penn (Con)
My Lords, I encourage the noble Lord to reach his question.
Lord Young of Norwood Green (Lab)
I will, but hardly anyone has contributed to this debate. I have posed one question and I will pose a few more—I do not see why I should not take the opportunity. I would see why if the Chamber were full of people participating, but it is a bit rich that there is hardly anyone—
Baroness Penn (Con)
My Lords, attendance in the Chamber does not change the guidance in the Companion about questions on a Statement being brief and direct.
Lord Young of Norwood Green (Lab)
I have posed one question, and I will pose a couple more. I will move to further questions and my criticism of the report. First, I agree with a lot that the noble Lord, Lord Lilley, said. On diversity, we recently had a situation, on which I would welcome a comment from the Minister, where the NHS could not bring itself to define a woman in gynaecological circumstances—I find that somewhat unbelievable.
What are we doing about fixing the situation in A&Es where paramedics stand by trolleys for hours on end while people are dying of strokes outside? I have raised this question with the noble Lord a number of times. It can be fixed, but you have to be determined. If the noble Lord wants an example of best practice, I recommend that he look at Wolverhampton, where he will find an example. There is no mention of best practice in this report, which I find astonishing. I also note the importance of new technology being adopted in a coherent way. I look forward to the Minister’s answers to those questions.
Lord Kamall (Con)
I thank the noble Lord for his questions. I say up front that I am not a fan of Twitter, even though I am still on it. Frankly, I do not like social media and I try not to look at it too much—but I welcome that the noble Lord shared some of his concerns.
The noble Lord is absolutely right on bullying and harassment; they are not acceptable in any form and should not be tolerated—this is part of the NHS people plan. This goes to the heart of the review: it is about leadership and culture. We have to make sure that there is a culture where bullying and discrimination are not tolerated. Frankly, it is about not diversity officers but greater diversity, which are not always the same. As I said, we have a diverse workforce, but why do we not see more diversity in the upper echelons of our health service? It is important that bullying is tackled and that we have that culture—but this also comes from local leadership.
I am grateful to the noble Lord for the number of times that he has suggested thinking outside the box on A&E. We have looked at various pressures on it; sometimes people go to it because they cannot get a GP—how do we address that? Sometimes, people do not want to go to A&E and try other routes but end up there—so how do we make sure that those other routes are available? We are looking at how to triage better and how people can use 111 instead. There are a number of issues and, as the noble Lord rightly said, technology can play a role.