(2 years, 1 month ago)
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18:59 - The House divided: - Ayes: 38 / Noes: 0 - Question accordingly agreed to.
Mr Speaker
Before I call the Member to move the motion, given the subject of this afternoon’s debate I wish to make a short statement about the sub judice resolution and the Supreme Court’s consideration of whether provisions in the draft Scottish Independence Referendum Bill relate to reserved matters under the Scotland Act 1998. As a judgment is anticipated in the coming months, I have exercised discretion to allow reference to the issues concerned in that case, given their national importance, but Members are encouraged not to discuss the detail of the legal proceedings.
12.57 pm
Ian Blackford (Ross, Skye and Lochaber) (SNP)
I beg to move,
That this House regrets the economic damage the Government has caused since the mini-budget on 23 September 2022, with the pound hitting a record low against the dollar, mortgage rates at their highest level since the financial crash and inflation at a forty-year high; calls on the Government immediately to reinstate the bankers’ bonus cap, increase benefits in line with inflation and protect the pensions triple lock; considers that Scotland cannot afford to be part of the failing state of the UK and must be independent for economic stability; and welcomes the publication of the Scottish Government’s independence papers series, Building a New Scotland and The Economic Opportunity for Scotland from Renewable and Green Technology by David Skilling.
Mr Speaker—
Ian Blackford
From a sedentary position, the hon. Gentleman says, “Too long,” and of course he is right—Scotland has been stuck in this Union for too long. I look forward to the opportunity for my colleagues to leave this House for the last time when Scotland becomes an independent country—it has indeed been too long.
It is fair to say that Westminster has been no stranger to chaos and crisis over the last number of years, but even with that in mind, it has still been hard to take in fully the mayhem and madness in this place in the last few weeks. Another Tory Prime Minister gone. Another Tory Prime Minister imposed in Scotland. The only thing that stays the same is the constant crisis in this place. Even the kangaroo genitalia-eating junket to Australia of the right hon. Member for West Suffolk (Matt Hancock) passes for a normal affair around here these days.
The core of today’s motion is designed to demonstrate that the permanent political pantomime that Westminster has become is not somehow victimless or benign; it comes with a massive, massive cost. Each and every one of these Westminster crises comes with a consequence, and it is always those who can least afford it who end up paying the price of the failure of Westminster control.
Let us take the example of the last few months. The UK Government have been so consumed by their own political crisis that they have ignored the economic crisis they caused with their mini-Budget on 23 September. Indeed, they are not just ignoring it; they are completely blind to the mess they have made. In the last 10 days, it has been hard not to notice that Tory Members are in a state of excited relief at the fact that they have got rid of a Prime Minister who managed to crash the UK economy in the space of 44 days. In their great relief, they seem to have magically forgotten that they were the ones who put her in place. They were the ones who were cheering on her libertarian joyride—until the very moment that she crashed the economy. They may have gotten rid of the Prime Minister they put in place, but for ordinary people the damage is already done.
Alex Cunningham (Stockton North) (Lab)
I get extremely anxious about my homeland splitting from my now home country, particularly as Scotland has no credible fiscal plan. As I see child poverty increase, the once leading education system trashed and the NHS left to deteriorate, I wonder who is at fault. Does the right hon. Member accept that while the Tory Government have let Scotland down—
Mr Speaker
Order. This is meant to be an intervention, not a speech about all your issues. I am more than happy to put you on the speaking list.
Ian Blackford
Mr Speaker, if anybody is letting themselves down, it is the hon. Gentleman, because the Scottish Parliament has done its best to mitigate the effects of Tory austerity, thank goodness. We can applaud what the Scottish Government have done with child payments—introduced at £10, increased to £20 and now up at £25—but we cannot stop the damaging effect of austerity on our country, because the bulk of economic power lies in Westminster. The hon. Gentleman and his Labour colleagues may indeed support the Scottish Parliament—our Parliament—which does its best to protect the people from what happens in this place in Westminster and, of course, from the damaging effects of Brexit that mean our businesses cannot fulfil their potential. The hon. Gentleman ought to look in the mirror.
Angus Brendan MacNeil (Na h-Eileanan an Iar) (SNP)
The reality is that the split in terms of values is between the red Tories and the blue Tories here. The hon. Member for Stockton North (Alex Cunningham) should be aware that in Ireland, which became independent, the poorest 5% are 63% richer than the poorest 5% in the UK. If ever there was a lesson about being independent, that is it.
Ian Blackford
My hon. Friend is quite correct. When we look around the world, we see small countries thriving. Small countries tend to do better than larger ones. There are no economies of scale for large countries, and it is Westminster, the UK, that is holding Scotland back.
Let me return to the economic situation we face today: the pound is still down against the dollar and euro, mortgage rates are at their highest since the financial crash, and inflation is still at a 40-year high. History shows that those in the Tory party always act fast to rid themselves of their own political problems, but they always fail to take responsibility for the crises they create. They are failing to take responsibility for the cost of living crisis they created and the failing UK state they have presided over for the past 12 years.
It would be wrong to believe that the events causing deep damage over the last few weeks are somewhat isolated incidents. It does not take a genius to know that the timeline for every bit of turmoil in this place over the last few years stems from one place and one place only: the utter disaster of Brexit. Six years on, it has been a disaster by every significant measure. Brexit broke Britain.
Only yesterday, Scotland’s The Herald newspaper revealed that the value of Scottish exports has dropped by more than 13% in two years, costing £2.2 billion, with Brexit entirely to blame. That is what Brexit has done to the Scottish economy and Scottish trade. That has been the impact of what the Tories have brought to us. However, faced with these Brexit facts, it is a disgrace that Westminster’s only response is to say one of two things: “Suck it up,” or, “Shut up.” I assure the Brexit fanatics that we intend to do neither.
The reality of Brexit is biting everywhere. Last week I visited the Nevis Bakery in my constituency. The owner, Archie Paterson, explained to me that they currently employ 30 people, and that they could easily double that tomorrow, expanding their production line, expanding their premises and growing the local economy. But just one thing is stopping them, and it is Brexit. Brexit means they have no access to labour. The balance of workers used to be 80% EU skilled bakers, and that has declined to only 20%. They cannot get the staff, so they cannot expand. It is the same story for businesses across the highlands and right across Scotland: denied economic opportunity; denied the opportunity to grow our economy; denied the opportunity to prosper and deliver the taxation receipts. All that has been delivered by the Brexit Scotland never voted for.
Mr Toby Perkins (Chesterfield) (Lab)
I agree with much of what the right hon. Gentleman is saying about the incompetence of the Conservative Government. On Brexit, however, an important fact is being missed. During the referendum, when many of us fought very hard to make sure the UK stayed within the EU, the Scottish National party spent just £91,000 on its campaign—13% of what it could have spent. It spent less on that campaign than on a Shetland by-election. It spent less than 7% of what it spent on trying to take Scotland out of the UK. Will he take this opportunity to apologise to everyone who voted remain for the fact that the SNP went missing from the pitch during that campaign?
Ian Blackford
My goodness, Mr Speaker, I hate to point out to the hon. Gentleman that 62% of those who voted in Scotland voted to stay in the European Union. I am proud to say that my right hon. and hon. Friends and I were up and down Scotland during the Brexit campaign, leading the people of Scotland and making the case for Scotland to stay in Europe.
Christine Jardine (Edinburgh West) (LD)
On that point, will the leader of the SNP please explain to us why his party spent less on the EU referendum than on a Scottish parliamentary by-election on Shetland?
Ian Blackford
This would be funny if it was not so tragic. It used to be the case—[Interruption.] We have many hours of debate, and if Labour and Liberal Democrat Members calm down, I am sure that they will get the opportunity to speak. Maybe I should point out to the hon. Lady that the Liberal Democrats used to proclaim staying in Europe—
Ian Blackford
No, you don’t. If the Liberal Democrats wanted to stay in Europe, as the hon. Lady suggests, they would have that in their manifesto. The Labour party and the Liberal Democrats have run away from Europe, just as they have run away from their responsibilities to the people of Scotland.
Drew Hendry (Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey) (SNP)
Is it not the case—just to educate the hon. Member for Chesterfield (Mr Perkins)—that not only did we carry the argument in Scotland, winning 62% of the vote for remain, but we carried that argument successfully in all 32 council areas in Scotland?
Ian Blackford
My hon. Friend is quite correct that every local authority area in Scotland voted to remain. Not only did people across Scotland vote to remain, but that demand to stay in Europe has increased over the past few years. In fact, recent polling shows as many as 72% of Scots wish to remain in Europe. I say to those watching in our own country that there is a clear way to achieve this. If Scotland has its right to determine its own future, and if our Parliament, which has an independence majority, can enact the referendum that our people voted for, then Scotland’s journey to independence and back into the European union will be complete.
Kirsten Oswald (East Renfrewshire) (SNP)
I am grateful to my right hon. Friend for giving way—[Interruption.]
Ian Blackford
On a point of order, Mr Speaker. I have just been called a liar.
Mr Speaker
Do you want to go out early for a cup of tea? Because you are on my speaking list. Let me deal with it. Mr Bonnar, I need no help, thank you. If somebody said that, I expect them to withdraw it, because we do not use that term in this Chamber.
Mr Perkins
Further to that point of order, Mr Speaker. I certainly withdraw any implication that the right hon. Gentleman is a liar. I did not say he was a liar, but I did say that what he said was untrue. I withdraw that out of respect to you, Mr Speaker.
Kirsten Oswald
I am grateful to my right hon. Friend for giving way. Does he not think that people at home will be looking askance at Labour Members? First, they were apologists for the chaos that the Conservatives have inflicted on Scotland’s economy. Now, they are some kind of supporters of Brexit, which has caused so much harm to Scotland. It is inexplicable how any Opposition Member could take such a position, as we all heard them do.
Ian Blackford
My hon. Friend is correct. It is 1.10 pm; we have until 7 o’clock to debate the issue. To hon. Members in other parties on both sides of the House, I promise that we will respect the importance of the subject, because this is about Scotland’s future. To friends and colleagues—Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem Members—I say, let us have that debate about Scotland’s future and let us respectfully disagree on what we see the future as. We will put the case for Scotland to be an independent country; they should come and engage with us, and put the case for Scotland to stay in the Union. I have to say that when we have these debates, I do not hear that case for Scotland to stay in the Union.
The evidence of the damage done by Brexit is mounting by the day. From those who forced it on Scotland, however, not one word of contrition or apology has ever been offered for that massive act of economic self-harm. I am tempted to say that when it comes to Brexit and Westminster, there are really none so blind as those who will not see—my goodness, that has been shown today. In many respects, however, the truth is even worse.
Alun Cairns (Vale of Glamorgan) (Con)
I welcome the right hon. Gentleman saying that he wants a serious debate about the status of Scotland in the Union and the benefits of Scotland being in it. In his arguments so far, however, he has blamed everything from rising energy costs to global supply chain challenges on Brexit. Does he not recognise that we have been facing a tumultuous global situation? If he acknowledged that, we could at least start to have a sensible debate.
Ian Blackford
I thank the right hon. Gentleman. I think he is genuinely trying to be helpful, so I will respond in kind. We are suffering from an enormous increase in energy costs. I applaud the fact that we have the energy cap, but let us remember the harsh reality that for people up and down these islands, energy costs have doubled in the last year. People will face genuine hardship. [Interruption.] I can see him shaking his head, but the harsh reality is that our energy market is determined by the wholesale gas price. For those of us in Scotland, 14% of our electricity consumption comes from gas and we actually produce six times as much gas as we consume. We are being affected largely by the failures of UK energy policy and, yes, by global issues as well, but the fact that energy costs are so high in energy rich Scotland is an absolute disgrace.
Mhairi Black (Paisley and Renfrewshire South) (SNP)
On the intervention of the right hon. Member for Vale of Glamorgan (Alun Cairns), of course the last few years have shown how unpredictable the world can be and how many unexpected challenges we can face, but does that not just hammer home how important it is for Scotland in particular to get the Governments it votes for? Given that Scotland has not voted for a Conservative Government since 1955, does my right hon. Friend not agree that by far and away the best way to protect ourselves against the unpredictable is to be independent and in control of our resources?
Ian Blackford
My hon. Friend is correct. Not since 1955 has Scotland voted for a Conservative Government, yet we face Conservative Government after Conservative Government. The difference between me and the hon. Member for Edinburgh South (Ian Murray) on the Labour Front Bench is that I would rather have an independent Labour Government in Scotland than a Tory Government in London who demonstrate their contempt for the people of Scotland through their policies. That is the reality. Unfortunately, he would rather have a Tory Government in London than an independent Scottish Government over whom he may have influence.
Alan Brown (Kilmarnock and Loudoun) (SNP)
Again on the intervention of the right hon. Member for Vale of Glamorgan (Alun Cairns), is it not the case that, although there are high global oil and gas prices, Norway has a sovereign wealth fund of $1 trillion—the biggest in the world—that can be used to support its citizens, whereas Westminster has squandered our oil and gas revenues all these years? Even then, the McCrone report from the ’70s, which was buried for 30 years, showed the wealth that would have accumulated to Scotland had it been independent. Both Labour and the Conservatives held that information from the Scottish population.
Ian Blackford
My hon. Friend is correct. I think the taxation receipts for North sea oil over the period that he is talking about have been north of £350 billion. What a missed opportunity to ensure that we could invest for future generations, eradicate the poverty that has been talked about and deliver hope for future generations. I will come on to the opportunities from green energy. My message to him and other hon. Members on both sides of the House is that a green industrial revolution could come to Scotland, so we need to create the jobs that will drive up productivity and investment and give people hope—but we are not going to do that while we are part of Westminster.
There are plenty of intelligent people in this place—I am especially looking at Labour Members—and we can see the damage that Brexit has done. They see it, but they will not say it. The reason they will not say it is that they are frightened that they will lose votes in the north of England, and to hell with the consequences in Scotland and everywhere else. I am sorry to say that that is one of the most shameful examples of politics replacing principles that this place has ever witnessed—that is really saying something in Westminster.
Dr Luke Evans (Bosworth) (Con)
One of the reasons that the UK voted for Brexit was that the EU stands for ever-closer union, which means joining the euro. The right hon. Gentleman has talked about independence, so will he be joining the euro? Will he not then accede some of the control over the fiscal situation that he wants to deal with?
Ian Blackford
I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman, but let me return to 2014. At the time of the Scottish referendum, we were told that, if we stayed in the United Kingdom, two things would happen: first, we would stay in Europe and secondly, we would lead the UK in a voluntary Union of equals. None of that has happened, however, because of his example of being taken out of the European Union against our will. The key difference is that Europe is a partnership of equals.
Since the hon. Gentleman asked about currency, I will answer head on. When Scotland becomes independent, as it will, we will retain the pound. [Laughter.] It is funny, is it? We are talking about people’s futures and we are trying to deal with a serious matter. We will keep the pound until such time that a number of economic tests are met that will allow us to have a Scottish pound. That is what will happen.
Dr Luke Evans
I am grateful that the right hon. Gentleman has been clear and direct in saying that Scotland will have the pound. If he joins the EU, however, is the plan not to join the euro? He will have to concede, therefore, that Scotland will have to do that. By what mechanism would he therefore keep the pound, or the Scottish pound, or refute having the euro?
Ian Blackford
I respectfully say to the hon. Gentleman that he should go away and read the treaties, because they are very clear; we are all aware of what is contained in them. Crucially, to join the euro, countries have to join the exchange rate mechanism for two years, which is voluntary. Countries cannot be forced into the euro. Our position is clear: we will deliver a fiscal programme that will deliver jobs for Scotland, create the circumstances for investment and drive up living standards—that is what we want with independence. We will make sure that we have the answer to the currency situation that delivers for our people.
Angus Brendan MacNeil
Perhaps the hon. Member for Bosworth (Dr Evans) is misled by headlines in The Times newspaper and should apprise himself better of what is actually happening in Europe. On 1 July 2013, Croatia joined the European Union and Croatia is not in the euro. There are about six or seven other countries in the European Union that are not in the euro. A country can join the euro if it wants over its own timescale—it can be hundreds of years if it wants—but it does what it wants and what it thinks is sensible for itself, and that is why it has independence.
Ian Blackford
My hon. Friend is not wrong, if the hon. Member reads the treaties. I have pointed out that joining the ERM is a step that has to be taken before anyone is able to join.
Several hon. Members rose—
Ian Blackford
I am going to make some progress, and I will allow interventions later.
Ian Murray
I am very grateful to the right hon. Gentleman for allowing me to intervene because this is a crucial point that people need to understand. The current position of the Scottish National party is to stick with the pound for an undefined period, then to set up her own currency. As Nicola Sturgeon said herself when she launched the economic paper, she will not commit to joining the euro. That does one of two things: it either denies EU membership, or it means an independent Scotland would have a separate currency from both the EU and its bigger trading partner, the rest of the UK. Is that not correct?
Ian Blackford
The hon. Gentleman is wrong. I have pointed out that in order to join the euro—[Interruption.] I have already laid out that we will retain the pound sterling immediately on attaining independence, and when the time is right and a number of economic tests are met, we will have the Scottish pound. There are six tests, and I will be—
Ian Blackford
I have already given way twice to the hon. Member, and I think I have been very gracious with my time.
As I said at the start, all the Westminster-imposed chaos comes with real consequences because the cost of the last six weeks, and the consequences of the last six years of constant crisis mean that the Tories are right back where they originally started—implementing austerity. This week, we have been deliberately bombarded by Treasury briefing about the “difficult decisions” that need to be made in order to fill the economic hole that the Tories dug themselves, but the return of austerity, if it ever truly went away, is not a so-called difficult decision. It is instead what it has always been—a Tory political choice to hit the poorest hardest.
No one should be fooled into thinking that there are not other choices. In the week that BP announced a quarterly profit of £7.1 billion, why not take the easy decision to bring in a proper windfall tax on excess profits? Why not take the easy decision to end non-dom tax avoidance? Why not take the easy decision to reinstate the cap on bankers’ bonuses? With all that new revenue, why not take the easiest decision of all, and protect those most at risk by uprating benefits and pensions in line with inflation? That, after all, was the promise the Prime Minister made when he was Chancellor back in May.
Until each and every one of those easy and essential decisions are taken, the Tories should not dare talk about the difficult decisions they are having to take. I fear, though, that the Tories and their new Prime Minister have already made their choice: they are gearing up to take a wrecking ball to public services and double down on austerity. That is exactly why we are now at such a critical juncture. It is clearer by the day that austerity 2.0 is the future awaiting the Scottish people unless we escape Westminster control for good. That is why independence is not just desirable; it is essential.
There is no better example of that necessity than the energy issue. The motion refers to the detailed and evidenced-based report by David Skilling, who has laid out the facts on the sheer scale of the energy opportunity awaiting an independent Scotland. I encourage hon. Members across the House to read that report. We have the potential to generate around 10% of Europe’s wave power and possess 25% of the potential European offshore wind and tidal resource. Let us not forget that it is Westminster that is holding back our tidal potential with its refusal to fund it to the rate that will be necessary to generate up to 11.5 GW of tidal energy by 2050.
David Duguid (Banff and Buchan) (Con)
I am not sure if I picked the right hon. Gentleman up right, but is he accusing the UK Government of not funding tidal energy, when in fact £20 million of contracts for difference were committed, as ringfenced, specifically for tidal stream energy?
Ian Blackford
I am delighted that the hon. Gentleman raises that because it takes us back to the discussions we had last year. The Royal Society report published just before COP26—a peer-reviewed report—indicated the potential to get to 11.5 GW of electricity from tidal. Incidentally, that would be 15% of the UK’s electricity production, which is the amount that nuclear contributes today, and by 2030 tidal would be cheaper than nuclear. We do not need nuclear to provide our baseload electricity because tidal does it. The fact remains that that £20 million, welcome as it is, does not go far enough for that industry to develop its potential. When we look at the programmes that are already live around these shores, about 70% of the value added from tidal comes from Scotland and about 80% comes from the UK. It is a domestically grown industry.
We heard earlier from my hon. Friend the Member for Kilmarnock and Loudoun (Alan Brown) about the contrast with the oil industry in Norway, but one of the key lessons from that is to make sure not just that we have the energy production, but that we control the supply chain. This is exactly an industry where we do control the supply chain. I say to the hon. Member for Banff and Buchan (David Duguid) that he should join me in pressing the Treasury to make sure we get the £50 million-a-year ringfenced pot—that is what would allow us to fulfil our potential—and at the same time to make sure that we get carbon capture and storage for Peterhead. Those two clear examples are direct demonstrations of how Scotland has been held back—held back on its ability to deliver green energy and on its desire to get to net zero in 2045. That is the cost of Westminster control for Scotland.
Jamie Stone (Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross) (LD)
I may be corrected, but I fancy I am the only person in this place who has worked in an oil fabrication yard; it was at Nigg. When I worked there, 5,000 people were employed—vital jobs in the highlands. We have the skills still, but they are ageing skills and the skills are going. If we miss the opportunity to build offshore floating wind structures in Scotland, we will be failing the Scottish people. What is the difference between us and Norway? Norway does build; we do not, and we should do something about it.
Ian Blackford
I thank the hon. Member for that remark. He is right to talk about what happened in Nigg back in the day. But it was not just in Nigg, as he will recall; it also happened in the west of the highlands—in Kishorn in my own constituency and Ardersier. If you would allow, Mr Deputy Speaker, we could sing the song of the Kishorn Commandos, but maybe we will save that for another day.
Ian Blackford
And there is many a tale to be told about what happened in Kishorn back in the day, but this is a serious point about the opportunity to industrialise the highlands and the opportunity to create jobs for generations, create wealth and create prosperity. I congratulate the hon. Member because we have worked together on making sure that we are pushing for the opportunities in Cromarty, but these are decisions that we should be taking in Scotland to make sure that we deliver on that promise.
We cannot mention often enough the potential we have in green energy. Scotland is energy rich, and we simply should not be facing an energy emergency. We should not have cold homes and soaring bills. Even before this crisis—as the hon. Member would acknowledge, we already had the situation before this crisis—40% of pensioners in the highlands lived in fuel poverty. What a disgrace that we allow that happen.
Dave Doogan (Angus) (SNP)
My right hon. Friend is making a powerful speech. Does he agree with me, and do his constituents share my concerns, that people look out at these wind installations—such as Seagreen off the Angus coast, two revolutions of which can power a home for an entire year—yet at the same time they cannot pay their electricity bill, thanks to the UK’s energy market? Is that not in itself a reason to decouple ourselves from this broken Union?
Ian Blackford
Indeed, because I think it fair to say that we are being ripped off. We are being ripped off by transmission charges. I am grateful to my hon. Friend the Member for Aberdeen South (Stephen Flynn, because he took me to see an offshore wind farm in Kincardine a few weeks ago—what a demonstration of the opportunity we have from the North sea. The fundamental point is that we should not have cold homes and soaring bills. We produce six times more gas than we consume, and nearly 100% of the equivalent of our electricity consumption already comes from renewables—[Interruption.] I have said equivalent on many occasions.
Ian Blackford
I did ask for respect and honesty in this debate, and I think that if the hon. Gentleman checks Hansard, he will find that I have said that on a number of occasions.
This is Scotland’s energy and it should serve Scotland’s people. The Skilling report shows that Scotland has the potential to boost our output by more than five times, increasing from 12 GW of installed renewable capacity to over 80 GW by 2050. Just think about that—80 GW of electricity by 2050. That is as much as four times the energy Scotland needs. It will provide the cheap, green energy that will allow us to have a new industrial revolution, and to see jobs come to the eastern highlands, the western highlands, the lowlands and the south of Scotland as a consequence of the economic opportunity that will be created. By expanding Scotland’s renewable capacity and becoming a green hydrogen exporter, we have the chance to pump as much as £34 billion into Scotland’s economy every year—an investment that would sustain up to 385,000 jobs, dwarfing the jobs that we have in oil in gas today. That is a real energy transition.
This is a plan for growth—green, sustainable growth for the long term, not the fantasy growth that we had from the Truss Government and the absence of any plan from the existing Government. Driving better productivity, driving an industrial green society, and driving our economy into the future—that is the plan on which an independent Scotland can and will be built. Apparently, the only UK Government response to that energy plan is the bizarre argument that we should ignore the vast renewable energy potential and instead turn to nuclear. Well, let us be very clear: we do not need nuclear in Scotland, we do not want nuclear power, and we will not be having nuclear power. We want the powers of independence so that Scotland’s energy can finally serve the needs of the Scottish people.
In the latest Scottish Government paper on independence, our First Minister set out all the economic opportunities that independence will unleash. Instead of Westminster anti-trade union laws, we could ensure fairer work with European-style labour market policies. Instead of an economic race to the bottom, we could build an economy based on human wellbeing, lifting people up so that they can contribute fully, not waiting for wealth to trickle down while the inequality gap grows. Instead of Brexit, we would be an EU member state in our own right and we would, for the first time, be in a position not just to benefit from EU trade deals, but to help shape them. Instead of a hostile environment and the disgrace of a Home Secretary who talks about “invasions”, we would have a humane immigration policy tailored to our needs.
Ian Blackford
I will happily give way to the hon. Gentleman if he will join me and ask the Home Secretary to apologise for the outrageous language that she used in this Chamber on Monday.
David Duguid
I genuinely thank the right hon. Gentleman for allowing me to intervene on the point he was making about an independent Scotland being in the EU—a point he made previously. Does he agree with his leader in Holyrood, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, when she admitted that there could be hard borders and passport controls between Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom?
Ian Blackford
Here we go: “Project Fear” all over again. Let me give the hon. Gentleman and the House the example of Ireland. Way back in the 1940s, close to 90% of Ireland’s exports were to the rest of the United Kingdom. Today that figure is less than 10%, but the value of Irish exports to the UK actually increased every single year, irrespective of the economic cycle. An independent Ireland was able to pursue policies that delivered growth and resulted in investment and trade opportunities. That is the opportunity for an independent Scotland.
Robin Millar (Aberconwy) (Con)
I would not want us to move too far beyond the point about humane treatment. Is it the case that Ukrainian refugees in Scotland currently have to be housed in temporary accommodation on ships, in which the space they must occupy is less than is legally required for prisoners in Scottish prisons?
Ian Blackford
I should not be surprised by some of the things we get from the Tories in this House, but has the hon. Gentleman any sense of listening to what has been happening this week in Kent, when he comes and accuses the Scottish Government regarding those seeking refuge on our soil? We can be proud of what the Scottish Government have delivered, led by our former colleague Neil Gray. Around 20% of Ukrainian migrants who have come are in Scotland living in our country. We have opened our doors and welcomed them, and by goodness that is something we should be proud of.
Several hon. Members rose—
Ian Blackford
I will make some progress as I am conscious of the time.
Instead of Westminster control, we would always have the stability of knowing that the Governments who shape our economy have been elected by us—a simple democratic principle.
The great American writer Maya Angelou once said:
“When people show you who they are, believe them the first time.”
Well, people in Scotland have had more than enough of Westminster control. We know who the Tories are, we know what this place is, and we know the deep damage it has done. We believed them the first time. That is why Scotland has not voted for the Tories since 1955. Westminster has made its choice and chosen its future. It is a present and a future of constant crisis—a Brexit-backing, failing UK state. It is time that Scotland left those choices and that future behind us for good. We do not have to believe in Westminster control anymore; we have only to believe in ourselves. It is now time for Scotland to build its own future—an independent future in Europe.
The Secretary of State for Scotland (Mr Alister Jack)
I am grateful for the opportunity to speak in this debate. I would, by convention, congratulate the right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Ian Blackford) on securing the debate, but forgive me, Mr Deputy Speaker, if I break with custom on this occasion, for the simple reason that a debate on Scotland leaving the United Kingdom is not a priority for the Scottish people, it is not a priority for Scotland, and it should not be a priority for this House. It is no surprise to me—but it is a great pity none the less—that the SNP has retreated into the only issue it ever cares about. It is a great pity because I and Conservative Members would warmly welcome a serious debate about the Scottish economy.
I believe that this House should be discussing ways to improve Scotland’s economic growth, because our economic growth has lagged behind that of the United Kingdom during the time the SNP has been in power at Holyrood. Why is that, I wonder? How much better might things have been if the SNP had respected the democratic result of the 2014 referendum, and ceased its constant, unwanted demands to re-run that referendum?
Several hon. Members rose—
Mr Jack
I fear that the SNP’s constant campaign—its neverendum campaign to leave the United Kingdom—acts like a millstone around the neck of the Scottish economy.
Steven Bonnar
I appreciate the Secretary of State giving way. We often hear that we do not respect the result of the referendum. I joined the SNP one week after the referendum. I was sent here to protect Scotland from Brexit and to fight for Scottish independence. Is that not taking part in the democracy of our country? I was not a member of the SNP then; I joined one week after the referendum, and I was elected to this place to help deliver Scotland’s path to independence. That is democracy.
Mr Jack
That simply is not democracy, because the hon. Member is not respecting the result of the referendum in 2014. As we heard from the right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber, there was confusion and, in that referendum, the Scottish National party was proposing that Scotland leave the EU. We have just heard a whole speech on how desperate the SNP is to get back into the EU, yet in 2014 the proposal made was that Scotland would leave—
Angus Brendan MacNeil
On a point of order, Mr Deputy Speaker. Is it in order to suspend proceedings so that the Secretary of State can have a tutorial on how elections and ballot boxes work and how an x is put on a piece of paper?
Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Nigel Evans)
I am sure that the hon. Member’s leader would not be delighted if I were to suspend proceedings for any reason whatsoever.
Mr Jack
I say to the hon. Member for Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Angus Brendan MacNeil): take the splinter out of your own eye. I am explaining how ballot boxes work. There was a very good, legal referendum in 2014, and it was won by those who wanted to remain in the United Kingdom. It is as simple as that.
I return to the point about the neverendum campaign being a millstone around the neck of the Scottish economy. The last thing that people need is greater uncertainty. The last thing that Scotland needs is the SNP’s continual push for a divisive referendum on leaving the United Kingdom. The United Kingdom Government are working tirelessly to strengthen the Scottish economy.
During the covid pandemic, it was the UK Government who had the ability to support our economy through furlough and business grants, keeping businesses in business and protecting people’s livelihoods. We are now supporting households and businesses facing increased energy costs. The UK Government are also providing the Scottish Government with a record block grant settlement of £41 billion a year over the next three years. In real terms, that is the highest settlement since 1998.
Alex Cunningham
Seeing as I live in England, I may well have scuppered any chances I had of getting my Scottish passport, but the leader of the SNP did not mention education in his speech. Does the Secretary of State believe that may be because we have seen Scotland tumble down the PISA rankings for maths and science as the SNP has neglected the education of the future population of our home country?
Mr Jack
The hon. Gentleman makes a good point. It is not just education standards that are falling—there are many problems throughout public services in Scotland, and drug deaths are three times higher than in the rest of the United Kingdom. It is clear that those failings in public services in Scotland happen because the Scottish Government get up every day and go to work with the one objective of breaking up the United Kingdom, not realising that they are a devolved Administration who should be focusing on health, education and crime, doing the proper day job that people voted for them to do. I absolutely agree with him.
Jamie Stone
It is a well-known fact that the Scottish National party loves me to bits. However, I received my second covid vaccination from a British solider in Raigmore Hospital, where the British Army stepped in during the pandemic. The independence argument falls apart when it comes to the defence of the United Kingdom, because there is nothing that Vladimir Putin would like to see more than Scotland breaking away and our defences split in two.
Mr Jack
The hon. Gentleman makes a very good point. During the pandemic, in my role as Secretary of State for Scotland I signed many MACA—military aid to civil authorities—requests for Scotland, and our armed services stepped up and did an incredible job of helping us through the process.
In addition to the UK Government support that I mentioned, we are directly investing £2 billion that will be delivered through the city region and growth deals programme, the levelling-up fund and the United Kingdom shared prosperity fund. Those projects are starting to transform communities and create tens of thousands of high-quality new jobs.
Marion Fellows (Motherwell and Wishaw) (SNP)
The Secretary of State goes on about levelling up and how grateful we in Scotland should be for money that is disbursed from the UK centre at Westminster. Does he actually believe that? Does he not understand that people in Scotland pay taxes here as well as in Scotland and that we are entitled to a share of all those funds?
Mr Jack
All the SNP councils in Scotland are applying for these funds, and they have been welcomed. I remember the leader of Glasgow City Council—an SNP council—saying how pleased she was that the UK Government were delivering those funds directly to local authorities in Scotland. And—guess what?—they are taking that money in its full amount and delivering it to local projects. That is exactly how it should be.
Marion Fellows
I have signed applications for levelling-up funds because my community is as entitled to them as communities in the rest of the UK. We pay our taxes as well, and we do not need to be lectured about taking hand-outs, which is what the Secretary of State is implying.
Mr Jack
That could not be further from the truth. I am not implying that for a minute. It absolutely is fair shares for everyone; we have never disputed that. All I am explaining is that the method of delivery is through local authorities to get project funds directly to local communities.
Several hon. Members rose—
Mr Deputy Speaker
Order. Mr MacNeil, you could start an argument in a room on your own. The Secretary of State is not giving way. Please pipe down.
Mr Jack
We are close to announcing two new UK freeports in Scotland, backed by £52 million of investment from the United Kingdom Government. That is a great example of how much more we can achieve when Scotland’s two Governments work together. We know that we can achieve much more by working together. So I repeat my offer to the Scottish Government to come and work with us on transport by improving cross-border links such as the A75 and on agriculture by giving farmers the gene editing technology that they desperately want. Gene editing will make crops more disease and drought-resistant and thereby drive down food prices. They should also work with us on energy, bringing small modular nuclear reactors—yes, you heard it here—to back up our tremendous renewable energy.
Iain Stewart (Milton Keynes South) (Con)
Will the Secretary of State give way?
Iain Stewart
In talking about the city region and growth deals, the freeports and all the other shared investments, is not the key point that that is real devolution and not central Government—whether here or in Edinburgh—dictating to local areas what they want? It is them deciding their priorities and working with both Governments to deliver on them.
Mr Jack
My hon. Friend is absolutely right. I thank him for all the work that he did on the subject while he was a Minister in the Scotland Office. He was an absolute powerhouse in working with local authorities and working through all the different deals available. I appreciate everything that he did.
Several hon. Members rose—
Mr Jack
If I can continue, the North sea transition deal is another thing that shows the UK Government working together with the offshore oil and gas industry to achieve a managed energy transition that leaves no one behind. The deal has the potential to support up to 40,000 jobs and generate up to £16 billion of investment by 2030. We are also supporting 1,700 Scottish jobs through the £3.7 billion Ministry of Defence shipbuilding programme on the Clyde. Those are just a few examples.
Carol Monaghan (Glasgow North West) (SNP)
Will the Secretary of State explain how he is working with the Scottish Government to tackle child poverty? The Scottish Government have the Scottish child payment of £25 a week. What more can he do to support children who are living in poverty just now because of the UK Government’s policies?
Mr Jack
Apart from the record settlement of £41 billion over three years, there is additional money—the £37 billion —from the support schemes the Chancellor introduced. That has Barnett money, which goes to the Scottish Government. The wonderful thing about devolution is that the Scottish Government can then decide how they spend that money.
Neale Hanvey (Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath) (Alba)
Is the Minister able to tell us what percentage of the £8 billion of oil and gas revenue that has gone to the Treasury in the last nine months is being directed to the Scottish Government to prioritise for their own spending? What percentage of that revenue goes to Scotland? The answer is none, isn’t it?
Mr Jack
The answer is that Scotland gets her share of Government spending. Everything goes into one big pot, but we know that spending in Scotland is 26% higher per head than it is per head in England. That is the Union dividend, which I will come on to, of £2,000 per man, woman and child. We have one Treasury and one pot, and Scotland takes a very fair share out of that.
Several hon. Members rose—
Mr Jack
I am going to make some progress.
I have given some examples of how the UK Government are investing in Scotland. As I said earlier, I would welcome a proper debate about the Scottish economy any day, but this is not a serious debate. It is, I am afraid, just another opportunity, as we have heard from SNP Members, to dust off some of their tired old grievances.
Let me turn to the premise of the motion and let us all consider reality. As the right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber will be well aware, the pound has recovered. The Bank of England interventions have been effective and our energy interventions will help to bring down inflation.
Ian Blackford
On a point of order, Mr Deputy Speaker. On the day of the referendum, the pound-dollar rate was 1.64. The Government have crashed the pound over the course of the last few years. That is the harsh reality and the Secretary of State might actually recognise that.
Mr Jack
To clarify the record, I was referring to the recent turmoil in the market. [Interruption.] Let me proceed.
This is a challenging economic period internationally and we should not pretend that the UK is the only nation which faces difficult times. The overall economic stability that the UK offers is the best long-term guarantee we have, so the right hon. Member is simply wrong in the motion about the state of the UK economy. He compounds his mistake, because his motion speaks of a land that exists only in his overactive and deeply aggrieved imagination: the so-called failing state of the UK. That will be the United Kingdom which has the sixth-biggest economy in the world, the UK which is a leading partner in NATO, the UK which is at the heart of the G7, and the UK with a permanent seat on the Security Council of the United Nations. [Interruption.] They do not like hearing it.
Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Nigel Evans)
Order. Please resume your seats. Come on. Stop it, please. Stop it. We did not have that noise when the leader of the SNP was speaking, so in deference, and in good behaviour, please stop the shouting.
Mr Jack
SNP Members do not like hearing it. Instead of insulting Scots’ intelligence, the SNP might explain what it is doing with Holyrood’s extensive powers in economic development, education and skills, planning and transport to grow the Scottish economy.
I hope that as the debate progresses we will hear something constructive from SNP Members, but I fear ferries will float before we do. Rather than deal with what actually matters to the vast majority of Scots—growing the economy and creating jobs—SNP Members want to talk about the Scottish Government’s “independence papers”.
Several hon. Members rose—
Mr Jack
I will make some progress.
Those papers have provoked scorn from respected economic experts, and even from high-profile independence campaigners. One prominent nationalist—Mr Deputy Speaker, I apologise in advance for the unparliamentary language—referred to the recent economy paper as “utter pish”. The kindest thing I could do is move on without further mention of those publications, so I will.
I am very clear that we will tackle the challenges we face more effectively as one United Kingdom. Much to the frustration of the SNP, the Scottish Government’s own Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland figures demonstrate the benefit to people in Scotland of being part of the United Kingdom. As I mentioned earlier, people in Scotland benefit from a Union dividend worth more than £2,000 a year for each man, woman and child.
Mr Perkins
I agree with the right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Ian Blackford) that in 2014 the pound was at 1.64 against the dollar and that now, because of this Government, it has crashed. However, what does it say to the Secretary of State that even with that, the Scottish independence campaign seeks to reassure the markets by saying it will not go for the Scottish pound, but stick with this crashing economy? What does that say about its confidence in the Scottish pound?
Mr Jack
I would add to the hon. Gentleman’s remarks by saying that as a country shadowing the pound it will not be the lender of last resort—it will have no lender of last resort. It is utterly irresponsible.
As one United Kingdom, we are able to draw on our great shared institutions such as the NHS. We are better able to respond to the nationwide challenges on the cost of living, just as we did in overcoming the pandemic when we offered the covid vaccine to everyone in the UK. The energy price guarantee will save a typical household in Great Britain around £700 this winter. I believe that our collective strength as a family of nations means we are much better able to tackle the big problems.
Stephen Flynn (Aberdeen South) (SNP)
Will the Secretary of State give way? [Interruption.]
Stephen Flynn
I thank the Secretary for State for giving way. In the aftermath of his former Prime Minister’s and former Chancellor’s budget, he called on the Scottish Government to implement those tax cuts. Beyond that, the following day he said that he was going to “hold firm” on those tax cuts. Does he regret those comments, and indeed the damage that his Government caused to households in Scotland?
Mr Jack
I make no apology for the fact that I have always been pro low taxes. That remains my position today.
For all that the motion for today’s debate purports to focus on the economy, we should be clear that it is, in reality, about allowing the SNP to talk about the one issue that matters to it: separation and seeking to break up the UK. This is simply not the time to be talking about another independence referendum. We share these islands, and we share a rich, shared history.
Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Nigel Evans)
If the hon. Member for Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Angus Brendan MacNeil) carries on moving across the Labour Benches, he will find the door is there. [Laughter.]
Angus Brendan MacNeil
On a point of order, Mr Deputy Speaker. Is it in order to put on a Liverpool accent so that the Secretary of State will maybe give way to a Scottish MP?
Mr Deputy Speaker
It is up to whoever is on their feet who they allow in. For whatever reason, you are not the flavour of the month, Mr MacNeil, and I have to say you are rapidly going down my list as to when you will actually come in.
Mr Jack
Mr Deputy Speaker, I admire the tenacity of the hon. Gentleman. He is obviously very good a playing musical chairs, but I am going to finish.
We share these islands. We share a rich history. Together, we have been able to develop the great institutions we are so proud of, such as the NHS and our armed forces. People in Scotland want their two Governments to be focused on the issues that matter to them: growing our economy, ensuring our energy security, tackling the cost of living and supporting our friends in Ukraine against Russian aggression. Those are the issues that matter to the people of Scotland, not the motion before us today.
Ian Murray (Edinburgh South) (Lab)
I congratulate the right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Ian Blackford) and the SNP on bringing this debate to the Chamber. I also pass on my thoughts and best wishes to the hon. Member for Glenrothes (Peter Grant), who signed the motion. He is not with us today because he has lost his father, so our best wishes go to him. [Hon. Members: “Hear, hear.”]
When I learned of and read the motion, I got quite excited, because I thought that I might finally agree with one of my SNP colleagues’ motions. It starts off, rightly, by highlighting the disastrous impacts of this Tory-created economic crisis, but I am sorry to say that it ends in a rather familiar way, with their one-size-fits-all and only answer to any question: independence. I will come to that later, but let me go through the first part of the motion.
To start with the Secretary of State’s contribution, I did not hear an apology for what the Government have just done to the UK economy. The Conservatives once claimed to be the party of economic competence, but they have now created absolute chaos. Let there be no doubt that the Conservatives have crashed the British economy. Their now junked mini-Budget—well, partially junked, because they have kept the scrapping of bankers’ bonuses—which was mini only in its connection with reality, has exacerbated an already burgeoning crisis. That crisis was born from catastrophic decisions made over the past 12 years, including when the current PM was Chancellor.
As the motion outlines, the pound is at a record low, mortgage rates are through the roof and inflation continues to spiral out of control. I know that for many on the Conservative Benches, those are just indicators—numbers on a screen—but they show an economy tanking as a result of their incompetence. This is not just about numbers; it is about the quality of life of millions of people up and down the country. It is about the unimaginable stress caused to families, who were already stumped by how they would make ends meet. They find their mortgage rates shooting up and energy prices rocketing, and they are staring at their supermarket receipts, wondering at how few items they got for such a high cost.
Angus Brendan MacNeil
The hon. Member makes some great points about the catastrophe we are involved in due to being in the UK. On that basis, would he prefer an independent Scotland with a Labour or an SNP Government, or a Scotland inside the UK with a Tory Government? Which is it?
Ian Murray
I prefer Scotland in the UK with a Labour Government. What an absolutely ridiculous and pointless intervention from a ridiculous and pointless Member of Parliament. [Interruption.] Is that unparliamentary, Mr Deputy Speaker? Okay, I apologise. [Interruption.] I just said I apologise.
A family came to my surgery last week to say that their fixed-rate mortgage of 1.79% was expiring. Given the increases in interest rates, they were expecting to pay and had budgeted for 3.5%, but they were quoted more than 6.5% and they simply cannot afford it. What was it all for? To give unfunded tax cuts to the richest. Make no mistake: the Tories crashed the economy from Downing Street and it will be paid for by ordinary people, either through their pay packets or through austerity.
Angus Brendan MacNeil
On a point of order, Mr Deputy Speaker. When we ask a question of a colleague in Parliament who finds it difficult to understand, is it in order that he responds with insults?
Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Nigel Evans)
The hon. Member did apologise immediately, Mr MacNeil. I think you should accept that with good grace.
Ian Murray
I am glad that the hon. Member has accepted it, from whichever seat he is now sitting in.
As I was saying, what has happened will be paid for by ordinary people either through their pay packets or through austerity, because the Government U-turns and change of Prime Minister cannot undo what has been done to Britain’s reputation. Our institutions have been undermined, our standing on the world stage has been diminished, and our credibility as a place to invest has been damaged. The devastation will last for years, maybe decades. As the right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber said in his opening speech—I will quote him as accurately as I can—that comes with “massive, massive costs”. But one of the other massive costs would be the break-up of the United Kingdom, because there is no doubt that this Conservative Government are as big a threat to the Union as any nationalist sitting by my side here.
Who have the Conservative party turned to to put out the fire? The arsonist himself. Let us not forget that even before this abject disaster, the now Prime Minister, as Chancellor, delivered the highest tax burden on working people in 70 years, the highest inflation in 40 years and the highest of any G7 country, the largest fall in living standards since records began in the 1970s, continued low growth and stagnant wages.
We have a Prime Minister who increased the tax for everyone else while he did not think his family should pay it; a Prime Minister who, while every single person in this country suffered under lockdown, was fined for partying in Downing Street; a Prime Minister who left a loophole in the windfall tax so that billions of pounds that could have been put into public services to help people with their energy bills were left on the table; a Prime Minister who lost tens of billions of pounds to covid fraud and shrugged his shoulders; a Prime Minister who was so weak in dealing with the cost of living crisis that he thought that the best and only response was to increase everyone’s national insurance; a Prime Minister who was, as a Member of Parliament, more of a US resident than a UK citizen; a Prime Minister who always puts his party first and the country second; and a Prime Minister without a mandate to govern. As the Leader of the Opposition so aptly put it, in the only competitive election in which the Prime Minister has stood, he was trounced by someone who was in turn beaten by a lettuce.
Alan Brown
The hon. Member is making our case for us, given the shambles of a Government that he is talking about. Does that mean that he will go back on his vow to do better together again and that Labour will not stand shoulder to shoulder with the Tories? Will he also call out Labour councils for working in coalition with the Tories, including in Edinburgh?
Ian Murray
Let me put it firmly on the record that there is not a coalition in Scotland between Labour and the Conservatives. In the Edinburgh example that the hon. Member talks about, which I know very well because it is my city, the Conservatives are an official opposition party. What SNP Members do not like is that they could not get their leader in as leader of the council.
Let me say to the hon. Member and to SNP voters that the best way to resolve the crisis at the UK level and to stop Scotland being ripped out of the United Kingdom against the will of the Scottish people is to vote Labour in Scottish constituencies at the next general election and have us replace the Government, rather than just shouting at them from the Opposition Benches.
Martin Docherty-Hughes (West Dunbartonshire) (SNP)
Will the hon. Member give way?
Ian Murray
I will make some progress because I am attacking the Conservative party and I think the hon. Member might like that.
If the Government had any shred of decency left, they would call this ridiculous circus to an end and give the British people a choice at a general election. The choice is between the people who caused it in the first place, and a credible Labour party, led by my right hon. and learned Friend the Member for Holborn and St Pancras (Keir Starmer), ready to give this country a fresh start. The reason that SNP Members do not want a UK Labour Government is that they know it shoots their independence goose. The UK Government’s reticence to offer such a choice at a general election shows what they think the outcome would be. They are an out-of-touch Government with no plan, no mandate and absolutely no idea of what misery they have inflicted on working people in Scotland and all over the UK.
Ms Anum Qaisar (Airdrie and Shotts) (SNP)
The hon. Member made an interesting point about the SNP not wanting a Labour Government. I joined the SNP a week after the referendum. One reason that tipped me over was that I remember, back in 2014, Labour joining hand in hand with the Tories to vote for air strikes while SNP MPs voted against them. I urge caution, because the fact is that the Labour party does not stand up for the people of Scotland.
Ian Murray
My recollection may be incorrect, but I am not sure we did in that instance.
This entire motion is predicated on the fact that we have a rotten, out-of-touch Conservative Government—and we do—and my contention is that the best way to resolve that is for Scottish voters to deliver Scottish Labour MPs so that we can become the UK Government in place of the Conservatives. The alternative is Members sitting on these Opposition Benches moaning about the situation rather than trying to change it.
Dave Doogan
I thank the shadow Secretary of State for giving way; he is very kind. He has given an excellent list of reasons why Scotland should not endure a UK Administration, but let me try to get him to focus on a particular point. We have heard a lot from the hon. Member for Chesterfield (Mr Perkins) in this debate. The shadow Secretary of State’s bairns in Edinburgh South are much better looked after by an SNP Scottish Government in Scotland than the bairns of the hon. Member for Chesterfield are looked after here. What does the shadow Secretary of State think about that? What does the Union mean to bairns in poverty in Chesterfield compared with those in Edinburgh South?
Ian Murray
The hon. Gentleman gets the phrasing of his question wrong. He says that we do not want to endure a UK Administration in Scotland. No: we do not want to endure a Tory UK Administration in Scotland. Perhaps SNP Members do, because it suits their cause.
The hon. Gentleman talks about child poverty. When Labour was in power from 1997 to 2010, we lifted millions of children out of poverty. All of that has been reversed in the past 12 or 13 years because of decisions made by the UK Government and the Scottish Government. And do not dare talk about children in my constituency when educational standards are going down the pan, nobody can get a GP appointment and inequalities are rising. Rising inequalities are the responsibility of both Governments in Scotland: the Scottish Government and the UK Government.
Sarah Owen (Luton North) (Lab)
SNP Members talk about children in poverty. Of course nobody wants to see children in poverty, so does the shadow Secretary of State agree that it is utterly shameful that one in four children under the SNP’s control are now growing up in poverty, and the numbers are increasing?
Ian Murray
I agree. I will be happy to correct the record if I am wrong, but I think the highest poverty rates among children in Scotland are in the First Minister’s constituency, Glasgow Southside. If its rate is not the highest, it is certainly very close to the top.
David Linden (Glasgow East) (SNP)
Will the shadow Secretary of State give way?
Ian Murray
I am happy to give way. Perhaps the hon. Gentleman will tell us about the poverty rates in Glasgow.
David Linden
The poverty rates in Glasgow are far too high, but that is because of the Tory Government who are controlling the economy: 85% of welfare spending is controlled by this place.
The shadow Secretary of State talks about the turgid record of the Conservative party. As we approach a general election, people will want to see the big difference that Scottish Labour MPs would make. What would be the biggest difference in immigration policy and Brexit policy, for example?
Ian Murray
The big difference will be having a stable economy. The big difference will be growth. The big difference will be a laser-like focus on child poverty. The big difference will be trade. The big difference will be making this country work. The big difference will be repairing our relationship internationally, including with our EU partners. Those are the big differences. We will have a constitutional settlement fit for the 2020s, instead of ripping Scotland out of the United Kingdom with all the problems that that may cause.
If my attack on the Conservative party has upset SNP Members, wait until they hear the next few pages of my speech. While I am speaking of having no plan, let me turn to the second part of the SNP’s motion, which I certainly disagree with: the prospectus for independence. The much-anticipated paper appeared a few Mondays ago, after years or even decades of no credible economic answers from the yes movement. Unfortunately, even with all these papers, the wait continues.
Let me turn to a few of the big themes. They may seem a little like déjà vu in this House, but we still have no answers. The first, and probably the most obvious and important, is currency. SNP Members have had more views on the currency of an independent Scotland than I have had fish suppers—and I can tell you I have had a few, Mr Deputy Speaker. Their latest wheeze was revealed last week. Immediately after having voted to leave the United Kingdom—in their hypothetical scenario—an independent Scotland would take back control with a radically different economic approach and keep the pound. So the Bank of England and the UK Treasury would still set the fiscal rules; all that would change is that we would have no say whatever over them.
The economic levers that SNP Members continually bleat about would be left in Westminster. Would that just be temporary, though? They say yes, because they would introduce a separate Scottish currency, the Scottish pound. We might ask how long that would take, but they do not tell us. At first, people would pay their mortgage in the same currency in which they borrowed it, but at some point during the lifetime of their mortgage, the currency would probably switch to one that does not currently exist. One thing I know from discussions with my own mortgage provider is that if people borrow in pounds, they will pay back in pounds, regardless of the value of any new currency.
The SNP chair of the Sustainable Growth Commission—a commission that has now been junked and barely mentioned—has said:
“The risk would be that the currency would come into being and then quickly devalue…That would have an effect on people’s income”.
Just listen to that sentence. After the mini-Budget, we know all too well what happens when a currency devalues so quickly. According to the eminent economist Professor MacDonald of Glasgow University, that devaluation could be as much as 30% on day one. That is a 30% reduction in income overnight, but everyone’s borrowing would stay in pounds.
If SNP Members will not listen to economists or experts, perhaps they will listen to someone they know better: the First Minister herself, who said that using the pound is in the long-term interests of Scotland. She said that for years. It has now been junked.
A new country and a new currency would also mean a central bank, but not one like any other central bank that exists in the economies of the world. At first, for an indeterminate period, it would be a central bank operating with another country’s currency. The First Minister claimed at the launch and the press conference that the central bank would be a lender of last resort and would stand by things like the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, which guarantees up to £85,000 in someone’s bank account if a bank goes into liquidation or disappears. So we would have a central bank as a lender of last resort, standing by things like the Financial Services Compensation Scheme in someone else’s currency, but with absolutely no control over monetary policy.
The Scottish Government paper says that a greater emphasis would be placed on fiscal policy to ensure the strength of the economy. Surely that is shorthand for greater austerity. I will come back to that issue later.
Ian Murray
Let me just finish this point, because it is really important and perhaps the hon. Gentleman will be able to answer it. According to the paper, when the new currency is established after an indeterminate period, the planned reserves will total just $14 billion—a fraction of what similar small nations require. In the Scottish Government’s first paper, they drew comparisons with lots of other small European countries, so let us compare some currency reserves. Denmark’s currency reserve is equivalent to $82 billion, Norway’s to $84 billion and Sweden’s to $62 billion, and those are all established currencies with a track record and a borrowing record. Perhaps the hon. Gentleman can tell us how that makes the case for borrowing to create massive reserves.
Angus Brendan MacNeil
The hon. Gentleman has just pointed out the reserves of independent countries, so he can obviously tell us the reserves of Scotland, if it is doing so well in the Union. If Scotland becomes independent, will Labour Members come forward with policies, or will they pretend they are like the Tories and refuse to play? Will he try to get into the House of Lords, or will he want to be a politician in Scotland after independence? What is his position? Under devolution, five parties come forward and present their views to the public. I imagine that that will be the same after independence—or are Labour and the Tories saying, “We’re taking our ball home—we can’t play any more”?
Ian Murray
Mr Deputy Speaker, honestly! We want a sensible debate, but according to the hon. Gentleman I am taking my ball home and going to the House of Lords. I suspect that the reason he is so animated is that his seat might become a Labour seat at the next general election. Let me tell him my prospectus for Scotland: my prospectus is that Scotland stays in the United Kingdom with a UK Labour Government. That is my policy. He seems to forget that this is his motion, not mine: I am replying to an SNP Opposition day debate on a motion tabled by SNP Members in their own terms.
I was talking about the reserves of other countries. The SNP’s approach to creating Scotland’s reserves, which would be a fraction of those of other countries, is to borrow. The SNP’s proposition for independence is to continue to use the pound while setting up its own central bank, being a Scottish lender of last resort and borrowing tens of billions of pounds to create reserves for a new currency. The very foundation of the new state would be built on unfunded, unforecasted borrowing. It is like someone trying to build up their savings by using a credit card. We know it is bonkers, because the UK Government have just demonstrated how bonkers it is, and SNP Members know it.
Sammy Wilson (East Antrim) (DUP)
I congratulate the shadow Secretary of State on demolishing the case for independence. Mind you, a feather could probably knock that case over; it does not need a wrecking ball.
The shadow Secretary of State is talking about the economic disaster that would come after independence. Does he accept that as part of the United Kingdom, even with the largesse that comes from Westminster, the Scottish Government have still failed to raise education standards, to have effective policing or to deal with the drugs crisis in Scotland? Indeed, they already have the lowest rate of economic growth.
Ian Murray
I agree with the right hon. Gentleman up to a point, but I wish he would not refer to the UK Government’s largesse or Westminster’s largesse. It is this Conservative Government’s largesse, and if we want to turn the UK around and keep the UK together, we have to replace this rotten lot with a UK Labour Government.
The right hon. Gentleman is right, however: the list of failures of Scottish Government policy is the length of your arm, and I would be here until 7 o’clock this evening if I went through them all. That includes the failures in my own constituency, where it is impossible to get a GP appointment. The Health Secretary tells me there is no problem, although NHS Lothian has said that health services and GP services in my constituency are failing—and I quote that directly from one of its reports.
Let me now turn to the subject of the European Union, because we have heard a lot about that. I remind the House—including my hon. Friend the Member for Chesterfield, who made some great points about the EU—that when the Division bell rang on our efforts to find a way through a deal with the European Union, we would have won on the customs union had the SNP not abstained. And let us not forget that when the Division bell rang on 12 December, after the general election, when the offer on the trade and co-operation agreement was “take it or leave it”, SNP Members voted for no deal. That is their record here: they talk a good game, but they do not deliver when they should be delivering.
Much like the experience of some Conservative Members in recent years, the response from Brussels has not fitted the preconceived fantasy. At the aforementioned press conference, the First Minister rejected the idea that Scotland would join the euro, saying it was
“not the right option for Scotland”.
Nonetheless, she added, Scotland would have no problem with joining the European Union. That is awkward, is it not, because the EU does not seem to agree. The law does not seem to agree. Officials have insisted, and the treaties state, that any country wishing to join the EU would legally have to commit to the euro. I wonder whether any SNP Members can shed any light on the Scottish Government’s position—but let me answer my own question, because I am more likely to get the answer than I would be if the SNP answered it.
The paper says that an independent Scotland would use the pound for an undetermined period, then borrow tens of billions—which may be an inadequate amount—to support a new currency, only to have to legally commit to joining the euro at some point in the future. The SNP has more currency positions in this paper than we have had Prime Ministers since the summer. If the mini-Budget has demonstrated anything, it is that the markets take a dim view of fantasy economics. What an economic catastrophe for Scottish people’s mortgages, borrowing, pensions and wages!
Before SNP Members start jumping up and down, as they have already, saying that some EU countries do not use the euro, let me repeat that every new member of the European Union must legally commit to joining the euro. That is written in an international treaty, which is international law. But here comes the conundrum for the SNP. The paper that has been presented by the First Minister does several things; are she and the SNP saying (a) that they are not willing to abide by the EU rules on the euro? They have already said that they would not join the exchange rate mechanism. They would play their games: they would say they would do it, and would not. Is that the policy, or is it (b)? If it is not joining the euro, they are essentially saying that a separate Scotland would sit outside the rest of the UK and the EU with a different currency.
Ian Murray
That position is surely not in the best interests of Scotland—but I hear someone shout, from a sedentary position, “Got it in one.” So SNP Members want to create a border with our biggest trading partner, and to create a currency border with what they say will become their biggest trading partner, and Scotland will be sitting with a separate currency, a different currency, outwith both. What they are doing—and this is key to the whole argument—is cherry-picking EU rules, which sounds more like Farage “cakeism” than a credible proposition for any country. They want to take all the good things but none of the bad, and they have no way of squaring that circle.
Mr Perkins
My hon. Friend is making a magnificent case. [Laughter.] SNP Members may well laugh. They appear to be so much more in touch with the view of the Scottish people, or so they tell us. Perhaps they can explain why only one of the last 19 opinion polls on Scottish independence showed the people of Scotland to be in favour of independence. The points that my hon. Friend is making demonstrate the reason: the inoperable difficulties of Scottish independence. That is why the people of Scotland not only voted against independence in 2014, but continue, in response to opinion polls, to say that they want to remain a part of the UK.
Ian Murray
My hon. Friend is right. SNP Members always cite opinion polls when they are in their favour, but they never cite them when they are not in their favour.
What I would say, in all sincerity, to those who support independence in Scotland is “Look at the proposition that is in front of you.” The best way to resolve this is not to take Scotland out of the UK and do Brexit on stilts—Scexit, if you like—but to vote Labour, deliver a UK Labour Government, and allow us to prove that Britain is a place that Scotland would want to be a part of.
Martin Docherty-Hughes
I congratulate the hon. Gentleman on his speech. May I introduce a constitutional element? The hon. Gentleman’s own party, when in government, fully supported the constitutional position of the people of Northern Ireland on whether to remain in the Union—as I know some of our friends and colleagues here wish to do—or to become once again a part of the Irish Republic. They believe that that position should be allowed if a unification referendum happens every seven years, I think; Members will need to correct me if I am wrong. The hon. Gentleman’s party therefore believes in the inalienable right of the people of Northern Ireland to determine their own governance and destiny. Does he believe that Scotland has the same right?
Ian Murray
I have a lot of respect for the hon. Gentleman—I genuinely have, and I say that with all sincerity—but I believe that comparisons between Scotland and Northern Ireland are not only unhelpful but, to some, offensive. The purpose of the Good Friday agreement is to create peace on the island of Ireland, and I think that trying to superimpose the Good Friday agreement on the issue of Scottish independence will be seen as it should be seen, as unhelpful and historically inaccurate. [Interruption.] All the SNP Members are shouting, but one of the Labour party’s proudest achievements in office was peace in Northern Ireland. If they think that the Labour party’s position is inconsistent with a position of wanting to keep the UK together, they are simply incorrect. We on the Labour Benches will do nothing—absolutely nothing—to undermine the Good Friday agreement.
As an adjunct and a footnote to that, what SNP Members are proposing in their proposition for an independent Scotland will create the same problems at the border at Berwick as we have in Northern Ireland with the Northern Ireland protocol, and they know that to be the case.
Ian Murray
Let me make some progress. The time that I am taking is making you agitated, Mr Deputy Speaker.
Ian Murray
I would prefer the hon. Lady to tell us about the SNP’s proposals rather than talking about the Labour party, but I am happy to give way if the SNP wants to continue this nonsense and charade.
Kirsty Blackman
The shadow Secretary of State is making the case, as a Labour politician would, for why Labour should be in charge. For two thirds of my lifetime we have had a Conservative Government for which Scotland has not voted. How does the hon. Gentleman expect the next 36 years to be any different from the past 36?
Ian Murray
As for the other third of the hon. Lady’s life, the UK Labour Government transformed it. That is why we want to create a UK Labour Government who can do things for the whole United Kingdom.
Several hon. Members rose—
Ian Murray
I will come back to hon. Members—I promise I will come back—but let me just make some progress.
All this brings us to deficit and debt, which is the great elephant in the room when it comes to independence. Let us talk about what independence would cost, and the scale of public service cuts that would be required. Very helpfully, These Islands—an organisation that believes that Scotland should stay in the UK—made the following comment, which I thought was quite interesting:
“We are waiting with trepidation about how the Chancellor will fill a £50 billion black hole”,
which, it said, equates to about 2% of UK GDP. An independent Scotland would have to fill a hole equivalent to more than 10% of Scottish GDP, so there would be five times the problem that has been created by the Tories at Westminster. As the First Minister acknowledged, the Scottish economy would be cut off from its biggest trading partner by a hard border. But before we even take account of the devastating impact of this, we just have to look at the Scottish Government’s own accounts.
Pete Wishart (Perth and North Perthshire) (SNP)
Will the hon. Gentleman give way?
Ian Murray
Let me just finish this point. I promise that I will give way in a moment.
We are not helped by the Scottish Government’s paper itself, which simply chooses to ignore the figures from Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland and pretend that they do not exist. The paper says:
“No estimate of the fiscal starting point for an independent Scotland’s finances is included in this document.”
That is rather surprising, because the SNP has—along with Labour and other Opposition parties—rightly been demanding that the UK Government produce the figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility on the forecast for the UK economy on the basis of their botched mini-Budget. The SNP does not even mention its much-lauded growth commission, which it has now junked. That does not seem very reassuring.
Ian Murray
Let me just finish this point. I will come back to the hon. Gentleman.
The starting point was always the Scottish Government’s own accounts—the GERS figures that the First Minister used to use as the starting point and bible have now been disowned. Every previous key document on their independence case had referenced those figures, and I have them here. Their independence referendum White Paper states:
“GERS is the authoritative publication on Scotland’s public finances.”
“Scotland’s Future: What independence means for you” cites its source as Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland—that is, GERS. “The Economic Case for Independence” states:
“This report uses data published in the annual Government Expenditure and Revenue for Scotland (GERS) report.”
“Pensions in an Independent Scotland” also states:
“This report uses data published in the annual Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) report.”
“Your Scotland, Your Voice” states:
“The most recent GERS demonstrates that Scottish public finances ran current budget surpluses in each of the three years”.
Ian Murray
I will give way to the hon. Gentleman before his knees give out.
Pete Wishart
I am genuinely grateful to the hon. Gentleman, but he need not worry about my knees. He is coming very close to saying that somehow the Scottish people, with all our resources and our history of invention and creativity, are unique in the world in that we would not be able to make a success of independence. What does he think is so lacking in the Scottish people that we, among all the peoples of the world, would not be able to make a success of being an independent nation?
Ian Murray
By the hon. Gentleman’s proposition, I could go into Barclays bank on Monday morning when my mortgage is due and say, “I’m not going to pay it” while waving the saltire. I wonder if the bank manager would accept that as payment.
This debate is not about the Scottish people; it is about the bust proposition that is being put to the Scottish people on independence. There is no doubt that the Scottish Government are now GERS deniers. These are their own figures; this is the crux of the issue. The Scottish Government’s own accounts show a deficit in Scotland of £23.7 billion, which is equivalent to 12% of Scottish GDP or 1.5 times the entire budget of the Scottish NHS. How do they plan to resolve that deficit? Where will the spending cuts land? If they are going to borrow tens of billions to support a new currency, what happens to the day-to-day spending deficit? Do they borrow that as well? At what cost, and in what currency? I am afraid that this paper makes the Conservatives’ mini-Budget look like an economic masterstroke.
Let me finish by talking about borders. For the first time, the Scottish Government and the nationalists have admitted that there would be a hard border between Scotland and England. Families and businesses who for three centuries have bonded and traded freely would be split up by a hard border, a different currency and a different country—[Interruption.] Members keep braying from a sedentary position, but they have no answers to these questions. In fact, the answers they are giving us make their position worse, not better. Let us be clear: Scotland trades more with the rest of the United Kingdom than it does with the rest of the world combined. The SNP’s response to the Conservatives’ damaging Brexit is to commit an act of economic folly that would be several orders of magnitude worse.
The SNP has no credible answers on pensions either. The right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber claimed that the UK Government would continue to pay Scottish pensions after independence, having seemingly not read his party’s own policy from 2014. So who will pay? Will somebody clarify whose position on pensions is right? Is it the right hon. Gentleman, the First Minister or the papers that they have put into the public domain?
Let me finish with words from themselves—
Ian Murray
I said I would give way to my neighbouring colleague, the hon. and learned Member for Edinburgh South West (Joanna Cherry), but she is no longer here—
Ian Murray
She has given up; she has no answers to these questions either.
It is little wonder that the Institute for Fiscal Studies—much quoted by the First Minister in the last few weeks, and rightly, because of the mess this Government have made of the UK economy—has also slammed the SNP’s position. The IFS said:
“It is highly likely an independent Scotland would need to make bigger cuts to public spending or bigger increases to tax in the first decade following independence ”.
The IFS was right about the mini-Budget—indeed, everyone quotes it, including the First Minister—and it is right about this proposition as well. If SNP Members will not listen to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, why will they not listen to their own people on their own side? Robin McAlpine of the Common Weal foundation has been quoted already today, and he is somebody the SNP used to quote vociferously in here. He campaigned for independence alongside the First Minister—and alongside many Members who are now sitting here—in 2014.
Ian Murray
I will happily give way if the hon. Gentleman wants to talk about Robin McAlpine.
Neale Hanvey
I think it is important to point out to the shadow Minister that there is no single blueprint or proposal for Scotland. Those are decisions that the people of Scotland will take after independence, and there are other propositions on the table. That is what a democracy is. I want to pick him up on one point from some time ago, when he made the suggestion that democracy is allowed to prevail in Ireland and he supports it because it keeps the peace. Is he therefore suggesting— I hope he is not—that there needs to be violence—[Interruption.] No, this is important. I fled Northern Ireland when I was a seven-year-old boy because of sectarianism. Is that really the point that he is making about how democracy will prevail?
Ian Murray
I am going to treat that intervention with the contempt it deserves and utterly ignore it, if that is the kind of argument we are getting from the Alba party. The hon. Gentleman was elected as an SNP Member of Parliament, and the people of his constituency of Kirkaldy and Cowdenbeath should reflect seriously on what they do at the next general election.
Neale Hanvey
On a point of order, Mr Deputy Speaker. I just want to give the shadow Minister the opportunity to correct the record. I was not elected as an SNP MP. I was elected as an independent MP.
Ian Murray
Ah, yes, the hon. Gentleman did correct the record. I forgot that he was suspended for antisemitism. I am surprised he wants to put on the public record why he was thrown out of the Scottish National party, but I think that his second contribution probably sums up my disdain and the reason why I would not accept his first one about violence in Northern Ireland.
But I was talking about Robin McAlpine, who said of the economic position for independence that we have to get off the “mad bus” of the First Minister’s independence prospectus. He said:
“It could be because you think the government should have a lender of last resort. It could be because you realise they have no economic plan for Scotland. It could be because they failed to come up with answers on trade or borders. It could be because the whole thing is utter pish. Pick your reason, but for God’s sake get off this mad, mad bus”.
The Tories have lost all economic credibility by crashing the UK economy, and on the same day that they reversed their catastrophic mini-Budget, the SNP produced a paper that should have been entitled “Hold my beer”. It is a mad, mad bus indeed, and ordinary working people across the country will pay the price. It is time for a UK Labour Government.
Neale Hanvey
On a point of order, Mr Deputy Speaker. I know it may feel politically expedient for the shadow Minister to slur me in the way that he did, but he should be aware that I was reinstated into the SNP because the accusations of antisemitism did not stand. I have worked tirelessly with Danny Stone from the Antisemitism Policy Trust and other Members in this House to ensure that that scourge is not furthered. I am not an antisemite.
Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Nigel Evans)
That is now on the record. I think we should move on. As “Erskine May” states, there should be good behaviour, but to be honest I am not seeing a lot of it in this debate. Let us try and change the tone.
Ian Murray
Further to that point of order, Mr Deputy Speaker. I accept the timeline, but I was accurate to say that the hon. Member for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (Neale Hanvey) was thrown out as the SNP candidate following accusations of antisemitism.
Mr Deputy Speaker
We are now moving on. Everybody has got their point on the record.
David Duguid (Banff and Buchan) (Con)
I rise reluctantly to speak in this debate because, as will come as little surprise to Members of this House and to people watching, I do not believe Scotland should be separated from the rest of the United Kingdom, nor do I think there should be a referendum on the matter. I do not even believe we should be having this debate today.
Of course there are those who disagree with my position, not least SNP Members and the party they represent, and I respect their right to hold that view. However, I do not believe their view is shared by anywhere near a majority of people in Scotland, particularly in these challenging times. And they are challenging times, as we have heard today.
I do not deny that many of our constituents in Scotland and across the rest of the United Kingdom are facing real pressures. Contrary to the implication of the SNP’s motion, these pressures are not only faced in the United Kingdom. The whole world faced inflationary pressures as a result of the covid-19 pandemic and the strain on global supply chains as lockdowns were lifted at different rates in different places, and then there was the impact of Vladimir Putin’s aggression and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which has had an impact on energy prices.
Tommy Sheppard (Edinburgh East) (SNP)
The hon. Gentleman says our views are not felt or shared by the majority of people in Scotland. Will he therefore explain why the same people elected SNP Members to come to this Chamber and did not elect Scottish Conservatives?
David Duguid
I have previously debated this issue with SNP Members. Every Member is elected to this House by a plurality of their constituents, but the majority of voters across the whole of Scotland did not vote for the SNP. [Interruption.] SNP Members are indignant in their incredulity. They may have more Members in this House, but that is not how referendums work. The referendum they dearly want would be based on a majority of voters across the whole of Scotland. I will not debate that point, as it is not the subject of this debate.
In response to the challenges faced by the whole country, this UK Government have taken action to support domestic and business customers, particularly the most vulnerable and the hardest hit. The energy price guarantee is expected to save a typical household in Great Britain at least £700 a year. The energy bill relief scheme will protect businesses and other non-domestic energy users, including charities and public sector organisations, by providing a discount on wholesale gas and electricity prices of roughly a third of what they would have paid without the intervention. That is on top of the energy bill support scheme announced earlier this year, which provides at least £400 to every household with a domestic electricity supply. There is also a further £9 billion of targeted support to the most vulnerable households, including pensioners.
There is a £650 cost of living payment to every household on means-tested benefits, paid out to more than 8 million households in two instalments—one in July and one in the autumn—which works out at roughly a third of all households in Great Britain. There is a £300 cost of living payment to the approximately 8 million pensioner households in receipt of the winter fuel payment, and a £150 cost of living payment to the nearly 6 million people in receipt of disability payments.
David Duguid
Before I give way, I remind the hon. Gentleman that these measures were taken by the UK Government.
Angus Brendan MacNeil
The hon. Gentleman talks of the pressures and challenges. He will be aware that mortgages are, on average, two percentage points cheaper in Ireland, that Irish pensions are higher and that the poorest 5% of people in Ireland are 63% better off than the poorest 5% in the UK. Does he think Ireland would want to rejoin the UK, or does he think Ireland is happy with its independence?
David Duguid
I am not here to speak on behalf of the people of the Republic of Ireland or, indeed, the people of Scotland, unlike the hon. Gentleman. I am here to speak on behalf of my constituents in Banff and Buchan, who I continue to argue have benefited greatly from being part of the United Kingdom.
David Duguid
If the hon. Gentleman will forgive me, I will continue listing the many benefits of being in this United Kingdom for the people of Scotland and everyone else.
The household support fund, which was launched at the 2021 autumn Budget, provided £500 million from October 2021 to March 2022. It was extended by the 2022 spring statement for the period from April to October this year, and the latest extension will cover the period from October 2022 to March 2023, bringing the total amount provided to £1.5 billion since October 2021. This is a devolved area of policy, but it has generated Barnett consequentials for the Scottish Government of £41 million in the last financial year and a further £82 million in the current financial year. As hon. Members have described, it is for the Scottish Government to decide how to fund mechanisms in Scotland as they see fit.
That £1.5 billion package is in addition to the more than £22 billion of UK Government support announced previously, including the £9.1 billion energy support package announced in February 2022, which had £296 million in Barnett consequentials for the Scottish Government as a result of the council tax rebate payment and the discretionary funding for local authorities in England.
The reduction in the universal credit taper rate and the increase in the work allowance announced in the 2021 autumn Budget meant an extra £1,000 to those on the lowest incomes. An increase in the national insurance primary threshold to £12,570, making it the same as the threshold for income tax from July 2022, and a lowering of the earnings limit were also announced in the 2022 spring statement. A fuel duty freeze was announced in the 2021 autumn Budget, and a 5p cut to fuel duty was announced at this year’s spring statement.
Alan Brown
Do the national insurance changes not show how the Westminster Government make decisions for Scotland without consulting Scotland? After it was announced, we argued that a rise in national insurance was a regressive measure, and then the Westminster Government decided that they would reverse the rise. Scotland had no say on that. All the other measures that the hon. Gentleman mentions are not free money coming from Westminster. We pay our share in taxes, and we are paying billions in additional oil and gas revenues. Borrowing funds most UK Government spending, and Scotland is allocated a share of that debt, so it is not free money or a dividend. His lot decide what we get, and then they say, “By the way, here is what you are going to have to pay for it.”
David Duguid
I was going to talk about the reversal of the health and social care levy, which will save 2.3 million people in Scotland an average of £285 in 2023-24. I will return to the question of tax coming in, payments going out and the terms of the Union dividend.
I will continue with the list, which is not exhaustive. I am listing just some of the highlights of what this UK Government have provided to everyone in this United Kingdom. The national living wage has been increased by the largest-ever cash amount, meaning that 2 million full-time workers will be £1,000 a year better off. Another benefit of Scotland being in the UK is that the rest of the UK accounts for £52 billion-worth of Scotland’s exports, which is three times larger than the amount going to the EU. Half a million Scottish jobs are supported by trade with the rest of the UK.
The Union dividend, for those who are not aware, is the combined value of higher public spending and lower tax revenues in Scotland. In 2021-22, the Union dividend reached a record high of £12 billion, which works out, as the Secretary of State said, at £2,184 per person, up from £1,925 per person the previous year. This includes Scotland’s geographical share of North sea revenues, and it is comprised of £1,963 of higher expenditure per person plus £221 in lower revenues generated per person in Scotland.
Angus Brendan MacNeil
The hon. Gentleman is talking about identifiable spending, which is a bit like the two of us going for a pizza, throwing away a third of it and then saying, “You got slightly more of the two thirds.” There is loads of non-identifiable spending in London—there is Crossrail, there are MPs’ expenses here in the evening, and whatever else—and we are not seeing Barnett consequentials for that. When we talk about this expenditure, he is telling only part of the story, and it is a misleading part of the story. If he wants to tell the real story, he must talk about the whole lot, and those figures are hidden.
David Duguid
I think I heard an invitation to join the hon. Gentleman for a pizza one night.
David Duguid
I would be happy to take the hon. Gentleman up on that, where we can discuss this further. [Hon. Members: “You’ll be left with the bill!”] Quite possibly. I accept the hon. Gentleman’s point that it is a complex issue but, as has been highlighted by the shadow Secretary of State, the Scottish Government’s own figures point out the Union dividend. They recently published a paper on the economy for an independent Scotland. I am not going to get into the detail but, as has been mentioned, it contains vague claims about how a new Scottish pound would be created, despite the central bank being in a different country. More recently, we have had confirmation from the EU that not only would rejoining the EU not be as straightforward as the SNP would have us believe, but it certainly would not be able to rejoin without committing to join the euro.
Finally, on the subject of that paper, let me read out the following quote from the Institute for Fiscal Studies:
“it skirts around what achieving sustainability would likely require in the first decade of an independent Scotland: bigger tax rises or spending cuts than the UK government will have to pursue…Scotland’s public finances are therefore expected to weaken relative to the rest of the UK… Experience from recent weeks suggests the markets may not look favourably on fiscal plans built on the uncertain hope of a substantial future boost to growth.”
These are challenging times, but the breaking up of our 300-year-old Union of nations is not the answer to those challenges. The Scottish people want both of their Governments—both of our Governments—to work together on delivering economic stability and quality public services, rather than pursuing a cynical, divisive second independence referendum. But rather than working collaboratively with the UK Government, the SNP continues to waste taxpayers’ money—the £250 million on ferries is just one well-known issue, and I could go on, but I am not going to take up any more of Members’ time—undermining the quality of vital public services and holding Scotland back, while constantly using the calls for an independence referendum as a distraction.
I know that happened during my time as a Minister, and I am sure that the new Under-Secretary of State for Scotland, my hon. Friend the Member for Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (John Lamont), who will be responding to the debate, will continue, along with the Secretary of State, to seek to work productively and collaboratively with the Scottish Government as we work to deliver economic stability and improve vital public services for the Scottish people. That collaboration in the national interest is what the people of Scotland desperately want, not a damaging, divisive and distracting independence referendum.
Pete Wishart (Perth and North Perthshire) (SNP)
I am delighted to be called so early, Mr Deputy Speaker; I was not expecting it. I want to see whether we can do something different in this debate. These debates are always characterised by real polarisation, with people who are passionately Unionist on one side and wanting to put that case, and with us on the SNP Benches wanting to put the case for an independent Scotland. I am going to see whether there is any place where we can get agreement, perhaps even on a set of principles on which we can engage, based on something approaching a consensus around the language. I might not be successful, but I will give this my best shot and see how far we get.
I am going to propose a few assertions, just to see whether the House will agree to them. The first is that Scotland would be a successful independent country. Surely all of us could agree on that. I am not sure about those on the Labour Front Bench, because I put that to the hon. Member for Edinburgh South (Ian Murray) and he was not so sure. But even the most rabid, passionate Tory Unionists surely would not try to assert that the Scottish people, with all their history of invention, creativity, innovation and imagination, would somehow uniquely fail, among all the peoples in the world who have secured independence, in making a success of our independence. So can we call agree that Scotland would be a successful independent country?
Ian Murray
I agree with the hon. Gentleman, and I am delighted that he has given way so early. This debate is not about that; it is about the broken proposition that he is putting as a prospectus for that independent Scotland. That is what we have demonstrated has holes in it. It is up to him to make that proposition, not us.
Pete Wishart
I will respond to that challenge and I thank the hon. Gentleman, because I think I heard him say that Scotland would be a successful independent country. I think that is what he was saying.
David Duguid
If the hon. Gentleman is looking just for that quote, to edit it for the purposes of having a video clip, I am happy to oblige. But just as an independent or separate Scotland could possibly succeed, would he also argue that an independent England, an independent Wales or an independent Northern Ireland would succeed as well, but not nearly as much as a United Kingdom?
Pete Wishart
This is progress. I feel that I am on the right track with this, because what we are getting across the House is agreement to the assertion that Scotland would be a successful independent country. I have no doubts whatsoever that England, without Scotland’s contribution through its resources, would be equally successful as an independent nation; I believe that somehow it would just about muddle through without our support—
Pete Wishart
I hope I am going to get a clean sweep here and get the Liberals to agree to this. I am counting on the hon. Gentleman to do that.
Jamie Stone
I hate to disappoint the hon. Gentleman, but if he took a straw poll of the pregnant mothers in Caithness who now have to travel more than 100 miles to give birth in Inverness—this has happened on the SNP’s watch—he would get a pretty dusty answer.
Pete Wishart
It was going so well. I had the Conservatives agree to this and I think I had the Labour party agree to it, but the Liberals just could not bring themselves to agree with the proposition that an independent Scotland would be a successful, independent nation.
Pete Wishart
I think we have heard from the Liberals. I will come back to the hon. Lady, because I have other assertions to make. I think we have now all agreed, other than the Liberal Democrats, to that one, so let us try another.
I am going to speak about all our resources. Let us include a good proportion of nearly all of Europe’s oil and gas reserves; the greatest potential for renewable energy that exists in Europe; vast fisheries; and a water supply that is the envy of the world. With all of that, Scotland has what it takes to be an independent country. Can we all agree to that?
Pete Wishart
Let us see whether the hon. Lady will agree that Scotland has what it takes to be an independent country.
Christine Jardine
May I point out that the hon. Gentleman misinterprets what all of us think? None of us has ever said that Scotland could not be independent, but the people of Scotland, when given the choice, voted no, because they feel that their future is better within the United Kingdom.
Pete Wishart
That is a little more encouraging, because I think we are moving towards the assertion that Scotland would be a successful country and it has more than what it takes to be one. Throwing this theme a wee bit further on, we could even suggest that Scotland is perhaps the best resourced country that has ever considered becoming independent. I think that is pretty incontrovertible. No country is better endowed to be an independent nation. When we look around Scotland, whether at our oil and gas reserves, our fisheries or our potential renewable energy, we see that no country is better prepared for this than Scotland. Can we agree to that?
David Duguid
I could not agree more with the hon. Member for Edinburgh West (Christine Jardine), who said that nobody would disagree with the hon. Gentleman’s assertion other than for the fact that the people of Scotland have repeatedly—or have when it counted—voted to stay in our United Kingdom. Being in the UK is better. [Interruption.] Let us all agree that Scotland is great. Scotland is fantastic. Scotland within the United Kingdom is even better. But will the hon. Gentleman confirm that the SNP’s proposals for an independent Scotland would mean rejoining the EU and therefore rejoining the common fisheries policy?
Pete Wishart
I am so grateful to the hon. Gentleman for raising the EU because of what I am going to say now. I suspect I will not get the same range of agreement around the House with this particular assertion: the only way for Scotland to be a member of the European Union is for it to become an independent nation. Do we all agree with that? [Interruption.] I am hearing a couple of noes, mainly again from the Liberal Democrats; I have to say that I am very disappointed with them. I thought I would have had a more encouraging response from them.
Mr Perkins
I do not know whether at some point the hon. Gentleman is going to touch on the motion that we are actually debating. His theories about interesting questions, which I would be happy to discuss with him in the Strangers bar, are not relevant to the debate we are having.
In the motion, his party describes Britain as a “failing state”. Without defining “failing” or “successful”, he now asks us all to say whether an independent Scotland would be successful. If Britain is failing and Scotland is going to be successful, why is it his proposition that Scotland should keep the pound, given that he claims it is failing?
Pete Wishart
I will say a couple of things gently to the hon. Gentleman, who, for all his noise and bluster in the Chamber, I actually respect. Look—this debate is about Scottish independence; I do not know whether the hon. Gentleman missed that.
Pete Wishart
I will come to the hon. Gentleman’s other points, which are important, but I am keen to say this: I wanted to find agreement across the House. I thought I was making a bit of progress, but it is disappearing a little. I will try once again, to see whether I can do it.
All I want is for everybody to agree that the only way for Scotland to be a member of the European Union is by becoming independent. We know that because all the other parties are parties of Brexit now—they all want to make Brexit work. I do not know how they will do that. I do not even know whether it is possible to make Brexit work; it is almost designed not to work. It is not any sort of economic strategy but an ideological mission. But they want to make it work, so we are left in a situation where the only way—I do not see how this can be uncontroversial—to make Scotland a member of the European Union is for it to be an independent nation. We know that the Scottish people want that because that is what they voted for. We are talking about democracy: the overwhelming majority of Scottish people voted to remain in the European Union, and every single poll since then has shown that they want to rejoin the European Union.
Pete Wishart
No; I have given way to the hon. Lady before.
Let us all agree that the only way for Scotland to rejoin the EU is by becoming independent. I will try another one; this one is probably not going to get there, but let us see. The only way for Scotland to get the Governments that it always votes for is as an independent nation.
Pete Wishart
The hon. Gentleman says that that does not make sense, but when I was elected in 2001 Scotland voted for Labour; it got the Government that it wanted. But since 2010, Scotland has never had the Government it voted for. What I am saying is uncontroversial: the only way for Scotland always to get the Government it votes for is as an independent nation. I thought we might have a little difficulty with that one, but the reaction does not seem too bad. I am a bit more encouraged, so I will see how much further I can get.
My hon. Friend the Member for Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Angus Brendan MacNeil) always refers to Ireland, and he is right to; it is a great example. If we look at other European nations such as Ireland, Iceland, Finland, Norway or Denmark—they are all roughly the same size as Scotland, at 5 million to 8 million people—we see that they are all much more successful than Scotland. They are all powering ahead, with economic growth and GDP figures that we could envy. Can we all agree that there is something about the constitutional arrangements of Scotland that does not let us prosper as our neighbours do?
Angus Brendan MacNeil
My hon. Friend makes a fantastic point. He just listed nations in the top 10 of the UN human development index. Here we are as Scots MPs in the UK, and the UK is at No. 18—and we are told that we are a poor part of that No. 18. Those who have left, such as Ireland, are 10 places higher. Of the countries he has mentioned, Iceland and Norway are at Nos. 2 and 3. He makes the case brilliantly.
Pete Wishart
I am grateful to my hon. Friend, who takes these issues seriously.
I have been a bit encouraged. Here is one that I am pretty certain Members from other parties will definitely agree to. I think we have to be honest about certain things and acknowledge that there will also, obviously, be difficulties. However, I think independence will be positive for Scotland; like our near-neighbours, we could be an incredible nation if we were in charge of our own affairs.
Let us see whether other Members agree—I am almost certain they will—that there would be issues at the starting point of Scottish independence because of the deficit we have as part of the United Kingdom. We can all agree with that: no objection from the Conservative Benches to that. Can we also agree that the way to resolve the deficit, as has been demonstrated by colleagues, is to remove the conditions that create it? Can we agree to that?
What we want is to have the full range of economic powers that will allow us to properly address the issue and to remove ourselves from the very institutions that give us the deficit as a result of being part of the United Kingdom. Can we agree to that? Other hon. Members are silent; I do not think they are agreeing—they are just humouring me now.
David Duguid
I seek clarification about what the hon. Gentleman is actually asking. Is he saying that by removing Scotland from the United Kingdom, Scotland’s deficit will no longer exist?
Pete Wishart
I will put it the other way round; it might be easier for the hon. Gentleman to comprehend. We have this notional deficit as part of the United Kingdom. We all agree that these other nations are powering ahead of us. According to the hon. Member for Edinburgh South (Ian Murray), we have a deficit that apparently means that we cannot be independent, but we have the deficit because we are part of the United Kingdom. What strikes me as the logical course of action is to extricate ourselves from the conditions that have given us the deficit. That means leaving the United Kingdom and ensuring that we get the full suite of economic powers to deal with the situation.
I think we all agreed that we as a people are resourceful enough to make a success of our independence and that, with its abundant natural resources, Scotland has what it takes to be an independent country. What is happening to make us have this deficit, according to the hon. Members for Edinburgh South and for Banff and Buchan (David Duguid)? We have the skills, the history of inventions, the creativity, the universities in the top 100, the oil and gas, the fisheries and the best potential for renewables in Europe. Why do we have a deficit? Maybe I am just not getting it, but I sense that it is to do with the constitutional arrangements that we find ourselves in.
I do not think I did too badly with all that; we got rough agreement on a lot. Let us park all this. Please—I never want to hear anybody suggest ever again that our nation, the people of Scotland, are somehow too wee, poor and stupid to make a success of independence. Never again! [Interruption.] I am hearing the hon. Member for Edinburgh South clearly. What I say to him is that I will make sure that no one in the Scottish National party utters that. Can he do the same in his party and can the hon. Member for Banff and Buchan do it in his? Let us never hear that suggestion again.
That was a useful kickaround. We have agreed all these things. What do we do now? How do we have the debate about going forward? We have to have the debate. People have knocked about opinion poll figures, but we are at 50-50 in the polls and the issue has to be resolved. It is intolerable that it should not be—we cannot continue into the future like this. Everybody says that we had a referendum in 2014, and yes we did, but Scotland in 2022 is almost entirely different from how it was in 2014. The United Kingdom today is unrecognisable from how it was in 2014. We have consistently and continually elected Governments with a commitment to holding a referendum and moving towards independence. SNP Members are here as representatives of that very mission. We have to resolve this.
My last plea is this: let us all demonstrate to the Scottish people that we are not some sort of hostage within the United Kingdom; that we are the equal partner that everybody talks about and that was described so eloquently during the last independence referendum—during our campaign to lead Scotland. Let us test this. Let us have the debate. Let us take all the pillars of the Better Together campaign—the things that sustained this tent that accommodated both Labour and the Tories, which was so catastrophic for the Labour party. The hon. Member for Edinburgh South is one of only a few Labour Members in his place. It was a terrible experience for Labour. All those central pillars are now gone. The case for staying in the Union has gone, particularly given the crisis and the chaos of the past few weeks. Scotland cannot put up with this anymore—we cannot be governed by incompetents who drove us to the very abyss of a pension crisis. We cannot go on like this. The last thing on which we can all agree is that we must have a referendum to settle this.
Robin Millar (Aberconwy) (Con)
It is a pleasure to rise to speak in this debate. I have listened with interest over the past couple of hours and welcomed the tone and the plea of the right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Ian Blackford) for a serious debate. However, I share the Secretary of State’s sentiments that there is no desire for a referendum. There is no desire from these Conservative Benches to see Scotland break away from the United Kingdom.
Robin Millar
Please, let me make a little progress.
It is important to enter into that serious debate.
I find myself standing here asking myself questions about identity when the matter of independence is raised. Identity is a complicated business. As a proud Welshman and supporter of this Union, I find myself at the heart of a web of family, communal, economic and national bonds and histories. These bonds link me to those across these islands whose past and whose future are interwoven with my own. I cannot hold it against SNP Members that they find themselves pulled in a different direction. Our disagreements on identity are those perhaps of the heart, not just of the head.
The foundation of the state is a serious matter, deserving serious scrutiny and question. Millions of people across these isles, and, indeed, the world, would find their lives dramatically shaken by the break-up of the United Kingdom. Those who seek to found their arguments on promises of prosperity have also the utmost responsibility to set out plans that are honest, transparent and detailed.
Ian Blackford
Let me commend the hon. Gentleman for the way that he is going about this. May I say to him respectfully that this is not to do with identity. There is the phrase, “It is not a question of where you are from, it is where you are going.” It is about that shared identity that we have for the country. On the question of the demand for independence, will he not acknowledge that there is an independence majority in the Scottish Parliament, and the SNP won that election to the Scottish Parliament last year on a manifesto commitment to delivering that referendum to the people of Scotland?
Robin Millar
I thank the right hon. Gentleman for his questions. They are good questions and I shall try to do them justice in my answer. First, on the matter of identity, I have a sense of where I am going, but I also have an acute sense of who I am, and pity the person who does not.
On whether there is a democratic mandate for independence within the Scottish Parliament, I do not see that there is. That body does not have the power in law to call a referendum, so I could, with confidence, look at the SNP manifesto and say, “Do you know what? I love what it is planning to do with services and with help for the homeless, the poor and refugees, but I do not care for independence. However, I can give the SNP my vote because the Scottish Parliament would not have the power to call a referendum.” I do not see a democratic argument for independence in a majority in Holyrood.
Martin Docherty-Hughes
I think the hon. Member for Aberconwy (Robin Millar)—Aberconwy is a beautiful part of Cymru—said on the Floor of the House of Commons that the Scottish Parliament does not have the ability to call a referendum under its set-up. Perhaps that is why the Scottish Government are going to the Supreme Court. I take it that his premise is that the only place that has the sovereign capability either to grant a referendum or to recognise the result of a general election is the House of Commons. If so, it is up to his party to recognise that all the pro-independence MPs on these Benches represent the majority of Scottish constituencies, in the UK’s constitutional situation, and to accept that result.
Robin Millar
I thank the hon. Member for his intervention, but he plays with the difference between a referendum and electoral representation in a House that runs a first-past-the-post scheme. I am happy for those arguments to be played out in a place where greater minds than mine can exercise themselves on that.
Robin Millar
I wish to make a little progress.
Having said that serious plans deserve serious question and scrutiny, I was disappointed to discover that the SNP Administration’s recent economic plan for separation fell short of what I would consider serious consideration. The paper contains no modelling, no projections and no hard analysis of the implications of independence—criticisms that were laid by many against this Government in recent weeks.
Two key arguments in that document for separation put forward by the SNP are a reversal of so-called austerity and EU membership. I will consider both points briefly. On austerity and state spending, an independent Scotland would have, as we have heard, a high public sector deficit. In fact, it would be among the highest in Europe, with state spending exceeding tax receipts by 12%, and yet the SNP contends that spending is not high enough. Indeed, the Scottish Government announced real-term cuts of 8% to local government, the police, prisons, universities and rural affairs after the Institute of Fiscal Studies warned that they faced a £3.5 billion overspend. That is crucial in understanding what the implications would be for an independent Scotland.
Angus Brendan MacNeil
The hon. Gentleman seems to say that if a country, a state or a Union has a 12% deficit, it cannot be independent—that should be news to the UK. I have a couple of questions for him. Does he accept that this is a political Union, and is there a democratic way out? When we left the trading bloc of the European Union, we had a right to choose. Surely that right exists in relation to this Union, too.
The hon. Gentleman says that Westminster can block a referendum, but if the Scottish Parliament were to hold an election—he mentioned elections earlier—on the sole question of independence, would he, as a democrat, recognise that, or would he seek to find a way to worm his way out of the straightforward recognition of the will of the Scottish people?
Robin Millar
I thank the hon. Gentleman for his questions. I missed his earlier invitation for pizza. I would gladly discuss those points over a pizza, but I will not get drawn into that tangle now—it is an important tangle and these are important questions. However, I offer this observation. For me, this is not a transactional, contractual relationship between two parties. The relationship that the United Kingdom had with the EU was of that sort. The relationship that we enjoy as part of this Union is a covenant, an intertwining of a relationship over centuries. It goes beyond a simple piece of paper. In fact, one of the great deceits of the past couple of decades has been the mistranslation of, and confusion over, Union and devolution. A deep and complex relationship has been misinterpreted as a contractual relationship, which is the basis of devolution.
Robin Millar
I will not take an intervention on pizza, thank you.
How is such spending to be managed? Where is the central bank to buy Government bonds? Where is the support of the UK taxpayer? How is Scotland to simultaneously build up the estimated £64 billion in reserves that it would need to join the EU? The welfare of millions rests on the answers to such questions, but the document is silent.
Moving on to the EU, the document notes that the single market accounts for a minority of Scottish exports, or about 18%, compared with the 60%—fully three times as much—exported to the rest of the UK. How then can trade with the EU compensate for cutting off Scotland’s biggest trading partner?
What would be the effect of customs checks on the border? How would those who travel across the border daily to buy groceries interact with stringent EU agrifood checks? How would farmers whose land is split by the border contend with the EU’s sanitary and phytosanitary checks—the same checks that have stopped tractors because of mud on their tyres and that have refused permission for loads to be taken to Ireland because blue ink has been used instead of black ink on the forms?
David Duguid
My hon. Friend gives a good example of why we need to stay together as a Union. On this Back British Farming Day, does NFU Cymru agree with the National Farmers Union of Scotland that keeping the integrity of the internal market of the United Kingdom is far more important than any other external market?
Robin Millar
Indeed it does. The internal market we enjoy by virtue of being a United Kingdom is of huge importance to every farmer in every part of this United Kingdom. There is more I could say on that, but I will keep to the thrust of this debate.
I must agree with the hon. Member for Edinburgh South (Ian Murray): there is no plan. The SNP’s plan is no plan at all. It falls short on how key public services will continue to be funded and to operate. Further, it does not address the two biggest shocks to our economy in the past two years—a covid pandemic and a war in eastern Europe. The UK Government have responded to both by virtue of the strength of the United Kingdom economy, for the benefit of all parts of the United Kingdom. There is no provision, however, in the plans of the SNP and the Scottish Government for a response to such emergencies and no demonstration of the resilience necessary to cope with the global storms we must weather.
The plan fails to give those whose livelihoods depend on the UK an idea of how they would be able to provide for their families. It fails to offer anything to communities that would be split by a new border. In short, more than matters of the heart or even of the head, and more than the hard-nosed transactions of an economy, the plan fails in its moral duty to the people of Scotland.
That moral duty is real. The fate of Ukrainian refugees is a concern to us all, and we know that the people of Scotland and the Scottish Parliament extended a warm welcome to many of them. However, that warm welcome has been poorly served. We know that those people are being housed in temporary accommodation on ships, and that the space they are allocated on them is less than the amount a prisoner in a Scottish prison can expect by law to enjoy.
Kirsten Oswald
May I gently ask the hon. Gentleman to reflect on the treatment that his Government are meting out to those who are fleeing to the United Kingdom, in contrast with the welcome and the open door that the Scottish Government have given to Ukrainian refugees? Will he reflect very carefully on the set lines that he is talking about, which do not reflect the reality on the ground?
Robin Millar
I take the hon. Lady’s point in the spirit in which it was intended, but perhaps she or another Member could answer whether it is true that Ukrainian refugees have had to be housed on ships in Scotland because there has not been the accommodation they were promised. They have received a warm welcome across the UK—I have no doubt that, or about the ambition behind it—but my point is the reality of public services in meeting that ambition. That is the thrust of this debate. It is a debate about independence and the economy, and about how we meet the reality of providing for those on who depend on us.
I will make one more point on the question of moral duty. Ireland has been mentioned a number of times as an example. Ireland secured its independence in 1922, but as one of his first actions the Irish Minister for Finance, Ernest Blythe, cut the pay of civil servants and reduced Government spending from £42 million in 1923 to £28 million by 1926. That is a one-third cut in Government spending in the years immediately following independence. These are real questions about the consequences of a transition to an independent nation but, again, on these practical points of a plan for independence, the document presented is silent.
I will finish on this point—
Robin Millar
No, I have taken several interventions. The planning of a new country is a serious undertaking, but we have yet to see a serious plan.
Gavin Newlands (Paisley and Renfrewshire North) (SNP)
I think it is clear to us all that this Government have made life harder for everyone—well, maybe not bankers, but everyone else. Many face real hardship and the all-too-real choice between heating and eating, and many, for the very first time, face having to go to food banks to feed their families.
That is the Brexit dividend unleashed on our country. It was a Brexit we did not vote for in a referendum invented by a Prime Minister we did not vote for, leading a party that last won an election in Scotland back when we used pounds, shilling and pence and had one TV channel to watch, in black and white. That is the kind of democracy we are used to in Scotland—the kind of democracy that sees the votes of Scotland shoved in the Brexit bin while Government after Government are elected on a minority of votes in a single part of these islands.
That is democracy Union-style: a democracy where the electoral system dates from the 14th century, the political parties from the 17th and the constitution from whenever it needs to be changed to suit the current incumbents and keep the nats at bay. Whatever positives the Union once held for Scotland—and there were always negatives, too—have been jettisoned and are just folk memories now. The UK is a failing state, with the passage of time marked by the realisation here and abroad that the gilt and glitter favoured by the British establishment masks the state’s sinking further into a morass of its own making.
We have had to sit back and witness the explosive financialisation of the economy at the expense of productive industry and commerce, leading to real economic output that lags behind virtually every other European country, and then the desperate attempts by the governing class to blame that on Johnny Foreigner and his sleekit ways. The reality is that the Union has delivered flatlining wages for the last decade and a half, with households facing rapidly rising prices and housing costs while incomes stay stagnant.
We have an entire country afraid to turn the heating on because they do not know whether they can afford the bills; whole communities left to stew in long-term poverty and deprivation; and people forced into the gig economy with no protections or employment rights, forced to pay the costs of their boss’s delivery van out of their own pockets because we have had decades of workers’ rights being systematically stripped at the altar of economic extremism. As we speak, we await the date for the Second Reading of yet another Tory Bill stripping back workers’ already meagre rights.
The reality is that the Union has delivered a social security system that Kafka would have torn up at first draft, where the terminally ill are told they are not sick enough for benefit and then sanctioned when they die, and people living with debilitating diseases that can only get worse are told they will be fit for work. It is a system where women are forced to prove to the Government that they were a victim of rape before their children receive benefits.
The reality is that the Union has seen insularism turned into a badge of honour rather than something to escape from. Both main UK parties have embraced Brexit regardless of the utterly catastrophic damage it has wreaked on our economy and society.
The leader of the UK Labour party proclaims:
“We do not want to go back in. We want to make Brexit work.”
That goes against every shred of evidence showing what an unmitigated disaster Brexit has been. Scotland voted for no part in this carnage. We are—to the tune of 72% in the latest opinion poll—proudly European and supporters of EU membership. Despite the best efforts of the Labour and Tory parties to keep us out of the EU, that democratic mandate will be respected when we regain our independence.
No one on the SNP Benches pretends that independence is a magic panacea for the immense challenges facing our country. We will not look out of the window on the morning of our independence and see rainbows shining on the sunlit uplands, with the problems of our generation magicked away. However, independence will give us the power and resources to begin the change to a better society—a society that looks to allies and neighbours across the Irish and North seas for the kind of attitude to its citizens that should be the norm here but that has been denied by the UK.
An independent Scotland should choose to have a more sustainable and more humane social security system. An independent Scotland should choose to invest in sustainable connectivity within itself and to link itself directly with the rest of the world. An independent Scotland should choose a future that does not rely on weapons of mass destruction parked in the Clyde and instead invest in its people.
It is only independence that gives Scotland the opportunity to unleash our full potential in the world and to harness that potential for the betterment of all who make our country home. It is only independence that gives our country the chance to end once and for all the despicable attitudes displayed by the Home Secretary on Monday. Our country is not being invaded. Migrants are not prisoners to be released. For thousands of years, our country has been home to an extraordinary diversity of humans—from Celts and Picts to Indians and Poles. That history is embedded in our present, and independence will allow us to continue that history into the future—rather than the repugnant Alf Garnett garbage that passes for UK immigration policy.
I encourage Members from the north of England to start thinking and preparing now for how they might change their part of the continuing Union after Scottish independence. It is shameful that the cradle of the industrial revolution has been left to beg for scraps from the table. One major infrastructure project after another has been shelved or mothballed, while a single station on a single railway under London is allowed to go £500 million over budget. That is not the cost of the station—it is £500 million over budget. The line itself has seen an extra £5 billion thrown at it. An independent Scotland will want to work with all parts of these islands constructively to support all our citizens. It is in our interests to see a strong economy along our border—not somewhere that is an afterthought for Whitehall.
The Union has failed those areas too, but it is Scotland that is taking the opportunity to make the change and undo decades, if not centuries, of stupor, neglect and misgovernment. Whatever discussions happen in the meeting rooms of the Supreme Court, democracy will inevitably have its way. Scotland has voted for the democratic right to choose its own future—that is incontestable. Those in this place who seek to stand in the way of that right are doing their cause no favour whatever. They should have the confidence and the courage to make the case for the Union they say they support. We on the SNP Benches are taking our case to the people, and I am confident that Scotland’s people will support that case and drive our country forward to normality and independence.
Martin Docherty-Hughes (West Dunbartonshire) (SNP)
I was actually glad to the hear the hon. Member for Banff and Buchan (David Duguid) speak up on behalf of the Union. We might not agree, but at least a Conservative and Unionist party Back Bencher from Scotland is here to do the job they are paid to do by their constituents. I know that the Secretary of State was here earlier and that the Under-Secretary of State for Scotland, the hon. Member for Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (John Lamont), is here now, but it is commendable to see the hon. Member for Banff and Buchan here doing his job. That is what we are all here for: to speak up on behalf of our constituents. I just thought it was important to say that.
On the constitutional debate that we are having—there is an element relating to the constitutional position—the hon. Member for Aberconwy (Robin Millar) talked about a covenant. The treaty of Union is not a covenant; it is a piece of international law, into which two independent—
Martin Docherty-Hughes
Well, the hon. Gentleman can shake his head, but he perhaps needs to read up on English, Welsh and, separately, Scottish history and about the pre-treaty parliamentary positions.
Let us go back to the debate at hand. In 2017, in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum, the now Prime Minister was clear—
Martin Docherty-Hughes
No, I have just started, so I hope the hon. Gentleman will let me go on for a wee bit.
In 2017, the Prime Minister said that
“it seems hard to block”
a second independence referendum for Scotland. Let me also repeat the words of another Tory Prime Minister, whom I repeat time and time again for the historical record. The former right hon. Member for Finchley said that if the Tory party
“sometimes seems English to some Scots that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population.”
Now, that is just a simple fact, and the former right hon. Member for Finchley was correct.
They then went on to say:
“The Scots, being a historic nation”—
I am sure that you and I agree at least on that, Madam Deputy Speaker, although I will not ask your opinion from the Chair—
“with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time. As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination.”
We are a nation. We are not a region. We are not some subsection of some great state in the Soviet Union. We are a nation of historic lineage going back into time immemorial that people all over the world call home. They continued by saying that
“thus far, they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union.”
They go on to say, and this is worth repeating time and again:
“Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”
That, I think, is a clear constitutional position.
Members will be relieved that I do not intend to go over many of the excellent points already made by my colleagues—[Interruption.] My hon. Friend the Member for Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Angus Brendan MacNeil) is welcome to interject at some point if he wishes. Let us go to the economic case for independence, because that is the crux of the matter. This may go back to some of the questions raised by Government Members, because I cannot help but feel that things are often framed very much in the wrong way. If things were perfect for the Scottish economy, or for the UK economy—I mean the United Kingdom of Great Britain and also Northern Ireland, which does not get much mention from some on the Government Benches—there would not be so many SNP MPs here making the case for independence today. Our aim is not to tweak the economy here or there or hope for some marginal improvements for Scotland; Scottish independence is a political project—a political choice for the people of Scotland, should they make it—that seeks to change the underlying economic conditions in order to improve the lives of everyone not only in my constituency but across the length and breadth of Scotland.
While at one time that idea may have seemed utopian, the events of the last few weeks and months—actually, the last few years—have turned the chronic problems of the UK economy into an acute polycrisis of stagnant wages and productivity and plummeting competitiveness precipitated by the disastrous consequences of a Brexit that Scotland did not vote for.
Angus Brendan MacNeil
My hon. Friend is right: this is not about utopia; it is based in reality, because we have an example in front of us. One hundred years ago, the poorest part of the United Kingdom was Ireland. It became independent and shed the six counties that had the majority of the industry. One hundred years later, Ireland’s GDP per capita is well ahead of the UK’s. Such a thing can happen only when a country can make its own political choices, rather than them being abdicated to people for whom that country does not vote and who do not care about that country.
Martin Docherty-Hughes
I totally agree with my hon. Friend. That is the premise for independence. An independent country would seek trade deals and agreements with those countries with which it seeks to boost trade. It would seek to boost productivity, improve competitiveness, and get rid of the idea of stagnant wages, because that is the basis of the UK economy.
Turning again to Brexit, in the past year alone—not since 2016, but in the past year—my constituents in West Dunbartonshire, which is one local authority area, have lost £32.5 million in exports because of Brexit. On top of the cost of living crisis, that comes to £869.97 per household. In my part of the world, that is a lot of money when people are trying to pay their electricity or gas bill, even though Scotland produces more gas than we need. It is an absolutely failed economic model.
Our current economic model is quite simple: we get a fiscal transfer every year from the Treasury, and in exchange we accept—and have accepted—that macro-economic policy will continue to be made with London and the south-east of England in mind. My constituents receive—this may go back to some of the questions from Government Members—slightly higher per capita public spending in return for what is essentially a guarantee that their wages and the Scottish economy will grow at a slower rate than they do here in London and the south-east of England.
In the past, that felt like a fair exchange. We were told that the engine of the UK economy would power up more quickly after recessions and recover more quickly from blows than the peripheral areas. That meant that the fiscal transfer could continue. No one seemed to notice the divergence over time, which led to the situation that was memorably compared by the economist Duncan Weldon: the UK economy basically consisted of the Republic of Singapore surrounded by a series of Portugals —no disrespect; I love Portugal—with a high-wage, high-productivity engine that could support the sluggish economies of its hinterland.
That divergence has led to the incredible reality of northern English regions and constituencies now being poorer than the former communist parts of east Germany, with other states that did not have an open economy until 30 years ago, such as Poland, Slovenia and Estonia, not far behind. The change of the economic crisis from chronic to acute can be put down to Brexit and 12 years of Tory misrule, but I have to say to my friends on the Labour Benches that the seeds for two decades of stagnant productivity and wage growth were sown during their period in office with their total inability to challenge the UK’s macroeconomic orthodoxy.
I am mindful of the comments of my former colleague, Andrew Wilson, who was a Member of the Scottish Parliament and has written a lot on these issues. He calls the UK an “aeroplane with one engine”. In good times, we are unlikely to notice any turbulence, but that cannot be guaranteed forever. When the engine begins to run more slowly than its competitors, as we are seeing now, there is a knock-on effect for everyone, including those in Scotland.
Simply, people across these islands are getting poorer, while those across the Sheuch in Ireland are getting wealthier all the time, as my hon. Friend the Member for Na h-Eileanan an Iar said. Let us not forget that Ireland, as an independent sovereign state, used the pound from 1922 to 1928 and was then pegged to the pound for 50 years. People should not just say that the fiscal position cannot happen; we need to be conscious about history and the reality on the ground. The people of Scotland recognise that.
Angus Brendan MacNeil
My hon. Friend raises an interesting and important point. Ireland was pegged to the pound for all those years, which probably held it back and was a mistake. It was unpegged when the UK went cap in hand to the International Monetary Fund for a bailout in the 1970s, and Ireland then—combined with joining the European Union, incidentally on the same day that Scotland joined—took off.
Martin Docherty-Hughes
Indeed. The underlying economic case for this Union, the British Union—not the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland—that we get slightly higher public spending in exchange for worse wages and growth begins to fall apart when average incomes in the UK decline relative to those of its neighbours.
As it is appropriate to ask Scottish National party Members to lay out the economic case for independence, it is also appropriate to ask questions of the Conservative Government and of the Labour Opposition, who seem unwilling to diverge from the Government on matters of macroeconomics. I would love to hear from the Front-Bench teams what they would say to people from West Dunbartonshire when they ask what the cost is to them over a working life of having lower wages than their peers in similar parts of northern Europe. Similarly, they ask about the economic value attributed to combining those lower wages with fewer years of healthy working life lived.
Ian Blackford
I commend my hon. Friend on his excellent speech. In essence, there are three components of growth: population, productivity and participation. One thing that has been ascribed to the Union since 1850 is the relative decline of the Scottish population, because there has been a lack of economic opportunity to drive up wages and productivity. We are being held back by the migration policies of this Government, which are, sadly, supported by the Labour party. That is why we need independence, because we will need migration to drive up the opportunities in Scotland and to deliver economic growth.
Martin Docherty-Hughes
I am grateful for that intervention from my right hon. Friend, and I fundamentally agree. As the grandchild of migrants, I hope they brought something at least to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, as I hope many future migrants will bring to an independent Scotland.
Ultimately—and, again, I come back to the Government —we can put a price on the fact that people in Clydebank, Dumbarton and the Vale of Leven die younger than comparable cohorts in Denmark, Ireland and even the south-east of England. In 2014, my constituents were among the four council areas in Scotland that voted to change the dismal economic calculus of Britain, because it never has worked for them and it never will work for them. I cannot help but feel that unless both the main Unionist parties in this Parliament—the Conservative party and the Labour party—find answers to these simple questions, there are going to be a lot more of my constituents voting for independence next time.
Kirsty Blackman (Aberdeen North) (SNP)
When I joined the SNP more than 20 years ago, I did so because I wanted Scotland to become an independent country. I believe that the people of Scotland should be able to make the important decisions on the issues that matter to us. It was not all that long after the reopening of the Scottish Parliament, and devolution was still finding its feet. It was also not that long after we had managed to extricate ourselves from 18 years of Tory rule—18 years of Tory Governments, who Scotland had not voted for since 1955.
In the time since I joined the party, we have had another 12 years of Conservative government Scotland has not voted for. I honestly thought that it could not get more damaging, and that we could not have a more damaging Government and a more damaging Prime Minister, than what we experienced during the Margaret Thatcher era. Then David Cameron said “Hold my beer”, and had the Brexit referendum. Then the right hon. Member for Maidenhead (Mrs May) said “Hold my beer”, demonised immigrants and put in motion the hardest possible Brexit. Then the right hon. Member for Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Boris Johnson) said “Hold my beer”, and destroyed what little faith the public had left in politicians being honest. Then the right hon. Member for South West Norfolk (Elizabeth Truss) said “Hold my beer”, and crashed the economy. If the current Prime Minister asks someone to hold his drink, I recommend running a mile. Scotland has not voted for any of this chaos. We did not vote for a Brexit referendum, we did not vote for Brexit, we welcome immigrants—and we do not vote Tory.
Our Scottish Government are consistently having to mitigate Tory-inflicted hardships in order to offer some measure of protection for our constituents, and I will make no apology for making the wellbeing of the people of Scotland my ideological mission. Because of the decisions of the UK Government we did not vote for, four out of 10 on those on universal credit skipped meals this summer. Mortgage rates have soared £6,700 a year on average. Since last year, energy costs have gone up £1,200, while pasta costs 60% more and bread costs 40% more. The UK Government have capped benefits and reneged on the pensions triple lock—and we did not vote for this. The people of Scotland and the country of Scotland cannot afford to be part of this Union.
Mhairi Black
As my hon. Friend will be aware, during the last referendum campaign we were continually told that we were in a Union of equal partnership. As she has touched on, even if every single seat in Scotland—all 59 seats—was SNP, the city of London, for instance, has 73 MPs. Is that not ridiculous, and how can this ever be a Union of equals if the second largest nation of that Union can be outvoted by one city?
Kirsty Blackman
My hon. Friend is absolutely correct, and she lays out very clearly the democratic deficit facing Scotland.
We cannot afford to continue having our resources squandered by Westminster. We cannot afford to go without energy market reform. We cannot afford trickle-down economics. We cannot afford the UK’s xenophobic immigration policy. We cannot afford to keep people having no recourse to public funds, which is making some of the poorest people in the UK even poorer still. We cannot afford a UK Government who refuse to increase the minimum wage. We cannot afford to keep having our workers’ rights stripped. We cannot afford locally—the hon. Member for Banff and Buchan (David Duguid), who has just stepped out, mentioned this—to have a UK Government who refuse to match Scotland’s funding for our £500 million just transition fund.
This UK Government are failing to tackle the issues that are facing our constituents. It is a joke that they keep mentioning the £37 billion support package. It is a joke that they keep mentioning people being £1,000 better off. For some unknown reason, the UK Government have included a freeze on alcohol duty in their £37 billion calculation. On what planet does that help people to pay their fuel bills or feed their children? People are not £1,000 better off as a result of the energy support provided. The average household is still paying double what it was paying last year. Where does the Prime Minister expect people to find the extra money?
A quarter of people across these islands have got no savings. With borrowing costs rocketing, people are spiralling quickly into unmanageable levels of debt, and that is only set to get worse as the cold weather kicks in. We have consistently voted against that, yet the larger size of England means that we are consistently burdened with Westminster Governments who do not care. Owen Jones published a video that he made during the Tory party conference. He pointed out that mortgage rates are going to go up as a result of the mini-Budget. The Tory party member he was interviewing replied, “I don’t have a mortgage.” That is the attitude we are faced with in the Conservative party. Many Tory party members and donors are doing all right, Jack, so why bother taking action? Our constituents are scared, and the UK Government are refusing to provide adequate help or certainty. The Prime Minister will not even commit to the triple lock or to uprating benefits in line with inflation.
My colleagues have spoken about Scotland’s potential. We have so many resources. We can lead the world in the deployment of renewables, and we can reach our economic potential. We have the best educated population in Europe. We have the talent and the potential, and we are not, as my hon. Friend the Member for Perth and North Perthshire (Pete Wishart) said earlier, singularly unable to flourish as an independent country. An independent Scotland would use its potential to ensure minimum living standards. How is it that in 2022 we are having to say that? Why are we being approached by constituents who have nothing, and who are experiencing poverty that has not happened in this widespread way during my lifetime? Before this cost of living crisis, some people were living below the destitution line, despite being in receipt of social security. Other European countries have stepped up and provided far higher levels of support to ensure that people can live through this crisis.
What are the people of Scotland doing about this? We are consistently exercising the democratic rights that we have to vote for the SNP. We have a majority of independence-supporting MSPs in the Scottish Parliament, and we had our best ever council elections this year. We have been the third largest party in Westminster for seven years, despite standing in less than one tenth of the seats. Yet the Westminster Government suggest that we have no mandate. I will say who has no mandate—the Tories. They have no mandate to inflict Tory economic policies on our population. They have no mandate for xenophobic immigration policies, and no mandate for cutting social security. If this is a voluntary Union of nations, why are the UK Government not respecting the mandate given by the people of Scotland to the Scottish Parliament to hold a referendum? Why have we had to go to the Supreme Court to assert our right to hold the referendum, and how can the UK Government justify arguing against that? This is not about identity; this is about democracy. Scotland has voted for the right to choose our own future, and we will do everything possible to ensure that happens.
Amy Callaghan (East Dunbartonshire) (SNP)
While we hold this debate, a cost of living crisis continues to hit people the length and breadth of these four nations. Scotland has a chance to shelter our people from facing the brunt of Tory mismanagement of fiscal responsibility, and from the Tories’ disregard for people. I say that with confidence, because Scotland does not and will not vote Tory.
I need not lay bare the many merits of independence for our nation in this speech. Successive Governments in this place have been covering that for us more than adequately, and my right hon. Friend the Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Ian Blackford) covered a number of those merits in his usual fashion—at great length. I will, however, outline a vision—my vision for an independent Scotland. I see our role in this as being to win over the hearts and minds of those who are still undecided, but that happens on doorsteps and in our communities, not through a speech from these Benches.
Like, I am sure, many of my colleagues, I am often asked why an independent Scotland will be better, fairer, and why it will make us happier. A straightforward answer is: we will get what we vote for—so, not the Tories. We have not chosen market upheaval; to close our borders; to ask women whether they have been raped before they can access welfare; to cut energy support; to crash the pound with unexpected borrowing; or to ship people—our people—off to Rwanda without considering the ramifications. It was mere days ago that the Home Secretary referred to groups of refugees who have come to our coast in search of a better life as an “invasion”.
Anne McLaughlin (Glasgow North East) (SNP)
I do not whether my hon. Friend, like me, has been contacted by many constituents about that. If she has, she will know that it is not just us, and that the people of Scotland are utterly horrified and ashamed about words such as “invasion” and “scourge” being used to describe vulnerable human beings who are fleeing conflict in other parts of the world. Does she agree that independence would give us a massive benefit as we would no longer have to be even partly responsible for shameful policies that treat human beings like they were worse than the dirt on the bottom of our shoe and that, once we are free of the UK, we can treat them like the human beings that they are?
Amy Callaghan
I welcome that intervention and agree that the language used by the Home Secretary is shameful. I think that my constituents agree as well.
Every single one of those wounds has been inflicted on us by Tory leadership—leadership that the people of Scotland did not choose. We have a chance to be a much bigger player on the world stage. We have a chance yet again to stand shoulder to shoulder with a multitude of our closest allies at a time when the world has rarely seemed so unstable. But as usual, it is ordinary people who pay the price for decisions made by a Tory Government we did not vote for.
The cost of living crisis continues to spiral out of control. The Trussell Trust handed out 2.1 million food parcels across the UK in 2021-22, yet the SNP must continue to call on the UK Government to develop comprehensive child poverty targets. The Government would clearly rather spend their efforts on protecting bankers’ bonuses than on investing in people.
We can think about austerity no longer being imposed, poverty being no longer a political choice forced on our communities and Scotland having a Government—its only Government—elected by its people, for its people. Every child in an independent Scotland should go to school with food in their tummy because their family could afford that from a true living wage, not at the expense of their parent or guardian not eating—and definitely not from accessing a food bank. There should be no need for food banks in an independent Scotland. We are endlessly grateful for the service that they provide in our communities, but they are a by-product of the first round of austerity, not a long-term, sustainable solution to ending poverty. I dread to think what is coming with the Prime Minister’s and Chancellor’s austerity 2.0. That is why our vision for a better, different Scotland is so crucial at this time.
We need only take one look at the legislation coming out of this place—the single market Bill, the Public Order Bill and the Nationality and Borders Act 2022—to see why people across the political spectrum are talking about another independence referendum. The majority of Scotland’s MPs are outvoted at every turn while the Government make up legislation as casually as if it were a shopping list. With an independent Scotland, we will get the Governments that we vote for and we will be rid of the economically irresponsible Tories for good. We have a bright future. We have the opportunity to gain powers that will allow us to rescue many Scottish children from a life of poverty. Very soon, I know that Scotland will grasp that opportunity.
Mr Toby Perkins (Chesterfield) (Lab)
I am pleased that the Scottish National party has decided to bring this debate to the Chamber. It is important that the case for an independent Scotland is re-examined. The points made by my hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh South (Ian Murray) will have been heard loudly both in Scotland and across the United Kingdom.
This is a matter of great interest to my constituents in Chesterfield. It is a fact that people across England feel very passionately and strongly that the United Kingdom is better together, and that the success of Scotland and the success of England is assured by our being together in the United Kingdom. We gratefully remember the many contributions made by Scots to the United Kingdom in a whole variety of different ways. The successful Union we have had over hundreds of years has led to Britain being the successful country that it is.
It was precisely because it matters to me and my constituents that, during 2014, I went up to Scotland and spent a considerable amount of time campaigning in the independence referendum, speaking to people in an array of constituencies.
Angus Brendan MacNeil
I hear the hon. Gentleman’s confession that he went up to Scotland for the 2014 referendum. Did he, on any doorsteps in Scotland, say to the people that voting to stay in the UK would guarantee their place in the European Union, or was he a Brexiteer by that point?
Mr Perkins
Clearly, I went up there to make the case for Scotland to remain in the United Kingdom. I absolutely recognised that that was a choice for the people of Scotland, but it was a choice that was going to affect England. The fact that we were to have a referendum on our relationship with the EU was already known in 2014, because the Conservative party had already committed to that and the people of Scotland voted to remain on that basis. Clearly, I was hopeful that the people of Britain would vote to stay in the European Union. In fact, I only wish that the hon. Gentleman’s party had put the same effort into that referendum as the Labour party. If it had, we might have seen a different outcome.
Several hon. Members rose—
Mr Perkins
A number of people want to intervene. I will accept interventions, but I will not accept one from the hon. Member for East Renfrewshire (Kirsten Oswald), because she misrepresented me previously. She said that I had said that I had apologised for the Government’s record. I have not; I have done the opposite. [Interruption.] I will check the record very carefully. She misrepresented me and if she wants to correct the record I will let her, but if she does not want to correct the record I will hear from the right hon. Member for Dundee East (Stewart Hosie).
Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)
The hon. Gentleman is perfectly entitled to make the case he is making, but given that in Scotland we voted to stay in the European Union and given that in his constituency 34,000 voted to leave and only 22,900 voted to remain, would it not have been better, instead of wasting his time in Scotland, if he had done his job in Chesterfield, instead of having that act of economic self-harm that is Brexit?
Several hon. Members rose—
Mr Perkins
May I respond to the point that has just been made? I worked very hard during the Brexit referendum to make a case, but I accept that people across the coalfield voted in a different way. I return to the statistic that I put to the right hon. Gentleman’s leader, the right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Ian Blackford). The Scottish National party spent a paltry £91,000 on the EU referendum. During the Scottish independence referendum, it spent £1,344,000. The truth is that the people committed to Scottish independence believed that the outcome they got was exactly the one they wanted. They wanted the rest of the UK to vote out while Scotland voted to stay in and that is why they did not lift a finger to get a result. Because of the limp effort it put in, the turnout in the Brexit referendum was lower in Scotland than in any other region or nation of the United Kingdom. That is the reality. The Scottish National party made it very clear to its voters that it was happy with that outcome. It knew there was a likelihood that that outcome would strengthen its case for Scottish independence.
Mr Perkins
If the hon. Lady is willing to withdraw the comment she made, I will give way to her.
Kirsten Oswald
I am grateful to the hon. Member. I am somewhat perplexed. I pointed out that his colleagues had made comments that clearly apologised for the UK Government’s economic mismanagement. I do not know why the UK Labour party would support that, but that is its problem, not mine. I absolutely stand by my concerns about the Labour party’s position on Brexit. It is unclear to me why Labour Members are so supportive of Brexit, considering the damage that it has done to Scotland, or why the hon. Gentleman continues to suggest that people such as me, with a 73% remain vote in my constituency, somehow were not marching the streets, as all my colleagues were. Scotland did not want to leave the EU and we want to be back in it. The hon. Gentleman might not like that, but he does not get to misrepresent it.
Mr Perkins
I hear what the hon. Lady says, and I repeat what I said: if the SNP was desperate to stay in the European Union, it had a funny way of showing it. Why is it—[Interruption.] I will respond to the points that have been made. Why is it—let SNP Members answer this—that the SNP spent just 7% of the amount of money on the Brexit referendum that it spent on the Scottish independence referendum? The only conclusion that I can come to is that the SNP did not care nearly as much about that.
I accept that the people of Scotland—the majority of people who voted in that referendum—voted to remain in the EU. However, the turnout in Scotland was also very low and I believe that the SNP’s lack of effort was a major factor.
Several hon. Members rose—
Madam Deputy Speaker (Dame Eleanor Laing)
Order. I have to protect the hon. Gentleman. He has as much of a right to speak as anyone else. Let us give him a chance.
Mr Perkins
Thank you, Madam Deputy Speaker. During that Scottish referendum, I was in Edinburgh, Cumbernauld, West Dunbartonshire, Airdrie and Falkirk, and I spoke to people about the issues and about how much I hoped that they would choose to stay in the United Kingdom. The people I spoke to on the doorsteps were pleased to debate the subject. Lots of them voted to stay in the UK and lots voted otherwise. Virtually all those constituencies ended up voting overall to stay in the UK, but they recognised that not only was this a matter on which the people of Scotland would decide, but that the matter was of interest to people across the United Kingdom.
The basic assertion that the Scottish National party made—that an independent Scotland would be part of the EU but that it would take the pound and, at some point in future, have a Scottish pound—has been absolutely blown to pieces by my hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh South. That was clear for everyone to see, and the momentary quiet that descended among those on the SNP Benches when he was making his case spoke volumes.
We have heard from SNP Members—
Mr Perkins
I will, because I was about to refer to the hon. Lady’s speech, so that is perfect timing.
Kirsty Blackman
I am very pleased that the hon. Member has given way. Is he aware that if all the 1 million people in Scotland who voted to leave the EU had voted to remain in the EU—if we had had a remain vote of 100%—we would still have lost the referendum?
Mr Perkins
That is an important point. I could make the same point about the response in Chesterfield. Of course, this was a vote for the entire United Kingdom. However, I want to respond to something else that the hon. Lady said; although I disagree with her conclusions, I thought that she made an excellent speech. On her point about the independence referendum, when I was up in Scotland for that, it was said very clearly by Alex Salmond, and it was very clearly understood by the people of Scotland, that that was a once-in-a-generation referendum. That was said strongly.
The hon. Lady has spoken powerfully about the mandate that the SNP has won by getting Members of Parliament elected to this place. Is she making the case that we should have had another referendum after the 2015 election, another after the 2017 election and yet another after the 2019 election? Every time the SNP has a majority of MPs in Scotland, should we have another referendum? If not, how often should we have these referendums?
We all know that if the 2014 referendum had had a different result and people had voted for independence, there would have been no second referendum. There might have been a 0.1% majority, but it would not have mattered: that would have been enough to say, “We have heard the voice of the people.” But the referendum was lost by more than 10%, and there was an immediate demand for a second one. How often do we have to have these referendums? If the independence campaign wins the next one, does the hon. Lady want the best of three?
Kirsty Blackman
I was talking about the different ways in which Scotland has given us a mandate for an independence referendum. When SNP candidates stood for the Scottish Parliament in 2021, the SNP committed explicitly in our manifesto to a referendum on independence. The Scottish people have chosen to have that referendum by voting for independence-supporting parties. If that is not the route for the Scottish people to have an independence referendum, what does the hon. Gentleman think their route to choosing a referendum should be?
Mr Perkins
I notice that the hon. Lady has answered my question with a question. My question was a very specific one: how often will we have this referendum? It is not for me to set the terms of a referendum, but I do think that things would be very different if opinion polls showed that the view of the Scottish people had massively changed since 2014. I could not ignore that, because this is a question for the Scottish people.
When the opinion polls turned in 2020, showing more Scottish people in favour of independence, we heard about them all the time. Everyone was always saying, “Oh, the latest polls say this.” Then I thought to myself, “Everyone seems to have gone a bit quiet about the polls. Why aren’t they mentioning them?” I had a little look on my phone. Of the last 19 opinion polls, including the most recent one paid for by the Alba party, only one showed majority support for independence. Of the last 44 opinion polls, only four have shown a majority for independence. If there had clearly been an overwhelming shift in opinion that had not been reflected, things would be different, but there has not. The truth is that opinion polls suggest that we are broadly in a similar place.
It is a shame that the hon. Lady did not respond to my question. If 2014 was not once in a generation, as the people of Scotland were clearly told at the time, when will be? When will enough be enough?
Deidre Brock
I am grateful for the opportunity to respond to the hon. Gentleman. Will he accept the words of Ciaran Martin, the former constitution director at the Cabinet Office, who prepared the legal documents for the Edinburgh agreement? He said:
“‘Once in a generation’ was not a legal commitment, believe me…It’s just a slogan.”
Mr Perkins
I accept that it was not a legal commitment. I am not suggesting that it was; I am not saying that there is not a legal right for the UK Government to decide that it is time for another referendum. However, we are talking not about the legal right, but about whether there is an electoral argument for another referendum. The question that I have asked three times now, but that no one has been willing to answer, is when the question will be settled. If losing the referendum in 2014 was not enough, let us say that we have another referendum next year: if SNP Members lose that, when will the next be?
Hannah Bardell (Livingston) (SNP)
I have some breaking news for the hon. Gentleman: democracy is not a one-time event. As we are talking about timescales, I would be interested to know something. If his party were to win the next general election on a manifesto commitment to have a referendum on taking the UK back into the European Union, would it not be within its rights to hold that referendum?
Mr Perkins
That is a great “gotcha”, but my point is that there is a question here: for people in Scotland, when is enough enough? No one has been able to answer that. Let me return to the point that I made a minute ago. If the referendum in 2014 had had a different result, there would not have been a second referendum; that would have been it. The SNP cannot consistently say, “Every time we lose, that is not the end of it, but the one time we win, that is the end of it”, but those are the rules that they want to play to.
Several hon. Members rose—
Mr Perkins
Many of my hon. Friends are waiting to speak, and I want to make sure that they have that opportunity.
I am glad that my hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh South raised the subject of the SNP’s record on education, because it is a compelling one. For much of my lifetime the Scottish education system has been the envy of us in England, but that is not the case now; in fact, it has gone backwards. It is very noticeable that the SNP seems constantly to want debates about things that are not the responsibility of the Scottish Parliament, but runs away from the subject of its actual record.
The hon. Member for Motherwell and Wishaw (Marion Fellows) suggested that the Scottish people were entitled to money from the UK Government and should not be expected to be grateful, and I entirely agree with her. I recognise that we are in a Union to which we all make contributions. It is the case that more money is spent per head in Scotland than in Chesterfield, as an SNP Member mentioned earlier; it is also the case that Scotland makes contributions to the United Kingdom, to defence through Faslane and through oil receipts, and that there are other respects in which its contribution is significant. That is why I think we are better together. I reject it when people in my constituency say that they resent the fact that Scotland does well out of the UK, and I also reject it when SNP Members suddenly say that they want to isolate oil revenues as if that were the only game in town.
When the people of Scotland voted in that referendum in 2014, they clearly understood that there would be about 60 Scottish MPs in a Parliament of 650. To consistently suggest that somehow this is news to the people of Scotland who voted in that referendum is nonsense. Only once in the last 47 years have people in Chesterfield voted for an MP who was a member of the party represented by the Government. Quite often in their contrary way, they have voted in a different way from the country as a whole. That is how democracy works.
I do think there is a real bit of cakeism among the members of the Scottish National party. The hon. Member for Angus (Dave Doogan) said bairns in Scotland were better off than bairns in Chesterfield and that was all about the Scottish Government, while the hon. Member for Glasgow East (David Linden) said there was a lot of poverty in Scotland and that was the fault of the UK Government. When it is good it is to do with Holyrood and when it is bad it is to do with Westminster, and I do not think that that is either helpful or sensible.
The hon. Member for Perth and North Perthshire (Pete Wishart) posed the question, “Can Scotland be a successful nation?” He refused to define a successful nation, but he told us that every nation that was independent was successful, having signed a motion which said that the UK was failing. It is clear that, in the SNP’s eyes, the UK is failing. Every single country that is independent, in the SNP’s terms, is successful, and we are asked to say whether Scotland would be successful without any description of what that success would look like.
I do not think that those who believe Scotland is better inside the United Kingdom have any less confidence in the people of Scotland, or any less confidence in the contribution of Scotland, the economy of Scotland, the business of Scotland, the geography and geology of Scotland, or the challenges facing Scotland. We recognise all of those just the same, but we also recognise that it is the strengths of Scotland and of the other countries of the United Kingdom that collectively make us as strong as we are.
That is the case that we make, and it cheapens politics for people on the independence side to suggest that they somehow have a greater patriotism than people on this side. I have to say, having watched my hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh South when Scotland are playing football, that there is no greater Scottish patriot than him—and no more deluded Scottish football fan than him either. People on all sides in Scotland are passionate about Scotland and proud of being Scottish, but many of them also believe that Scotland’s contribution to the United Kingdom and to being part of one of the major nations of the world should continue. I am glad that this debate has taken place and I thank my hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh South for the compelling case that he has made today. I look forward to listening to the other contributions.
Several hon. Members rose—
Madam Deputy Speaker (Dame Eleanor Laing)
Order. Members will have noticed that there is something else going on today, and that various Members have suddenly appeared in the Chamber. The reason is that I am now about to announce the result of the ballot held today for the election of a new Chair of the Health and Social Care Committee. I can announce that 436 votes were cast, four of which were invalid. The counting went to four rounds. There were 401 active votes in the final round, excluding those ballot papers whose preferences had been exhausted. The quota to be reached was therefore 201 votes. Steve Brine was elected Chair with 253 votes. He will take up his post immediately and I congratulate him on his election. I know that he is unavoidably detained elsewhere and cannot be in the Chamber at this moment. The results of the count under the alternative vote system will be made available as soon as possible in the Vote Office and published on the internet. We will now proceed.
Deidre Brock (Edinburgh North and Leith) (SNP)
We spend a lot of time in this place talking about the many faults of Westminster Governments and the constitutional arrangements that we and so many of our constituents object to. Indeed, I will be touching on some of those later, but I want to start by talking about the possibilities, the opportunities, that we can explore in an independent Scotland. It is the possibilities suggested by a fully independent Scotland that I find so exciting. It is not something to be viewed with dread but something to be welcomed as a new start, away from the crumbling ultra-conservative ways of this place. Imagine our small nation not being strapped to the disintegrating dreams of an imperial past, but as a country making its own way in the world, deciding what best suits the needs of its people and being able to act on that, looking outwards to the international community and playing its part in world affairs.
Today, for example, the Scottish Government published their findings from interviews on establishing a feminist approach to foreign policy. This approach to international affairs not only seeks to improve women’s material positions around the world but embraces a reorientation of foreign policy based on cosmopolitan ideals of justice, peace and pragmatic security. With reserved matters returned to us and the powers of a normal, independent country at our disposal, we would be able to fully pursue innovative ideas and build on our reputation as a trusted and valued global citizen. We would no longer be held back by the dead hand of this place clamping down on change, or held back by successive Governments we have not voted for. We would be free from being at the mercy of Westminster Government decisions so often made against our best interests by a Government full of Ministers who just do not get Scotland, its needs or its people. We would be freed from investments made without our say-so on obscenities such as Trident, successive disastrous Ministry of Defence decisions on weapons that waste billions of pounds, and nuclear power with its toxic legacy. We could shift to life-affirming investments in our people, our renewables potential, our health and education systems, our social security, our infrastructure, our research and development, and so much more.
The country I grew up in has flourished since it threw off, for the most part, the influences of mother Britain, although there is still unfinished business, and it has not looked back. If we asked Australians whether they want to creep back to the comfort of the UK’s arms, they would laugh at us, because nothing beats being free to make their own decisions for themselves, to suit their own needs. That is as true for countries as it is for individuals, and it goes for the many countries that have extracted themselves from Westminster’s grip. I do not recall any of them being incapable of deciding what currency to use, to the point that it stopped them wanting independence.
Hannah Bardell
My hon. Friend might have answered this question, but is she aware of any nation that has become independent from the UK and then gone back?
Deidre Brock
No, and many of the arguments around this are completely fatuous.
The Tories seem to have forgotten the promises made during the last independence referendum to greatly strengthen devolution and Scotland’s powers, but many of us in Scotland have not forgotten. Those promises were as hollow as the promises made to the fishing communities before the EU referendum. We, like them, have been badly let down.
I understand some of the fears we have heard expressed today by hon. Members from other parties about Scotland leaving the Union and regaining its independence. Surely they would welcome the example of a good neighbour to raise all our standards. We could set an example to the world in how we do such things. Should we not all be aiming to move away from the bad example of failed states and their disempowered Parliaments? There must be no more centralising of power in the hands of a very few Government Ministers without parliamentary say-so, and without the say-so of the people of Scotland.
I have spoken before of the bizarre hankering for uniformity across these islands, which is seemingly at odds with traditional Tory thinking. I thought that lot were all for rugged individualism, but I guess this centralising instinct is the kind of thinking we might expect from a team who crushed dissent, removed or sidelined what was left of their talent and somehow still gaslighted the public into thinking the ship of Government sails on serenely.
The United Kingdom Internal Market Act 2020, for example, was pushed through this place with indecent haste and has sunk its claws into devolved responsibilities, despite objections from the devolved Parliaments. The Act made it clear that this Government seek to bring down Scotland’s standards rather than improving England’s standards. That poverty of ambition should haunt England for decades, but it must not be allowed to hold back the rest of us.
Under the myth of removing barriers to trade, the UKIM Act ignored those objections and sought to force Scotland and, of course, Wales into a lockstep Union of diminishing standards and lessening protections, with a Government determined to rip away what they call red tape and the rest of us call sensible precautions. That is not respectful co-decision making. [Interruption.] It is interesting to hear the Minister getting a bit irate about these points.
Despite all the many ministerial assurances otherwise, the UKIM Act was not introduced with the intention of aiming for higher standards. I have been told time and again in this place that legislation that appears completely disadvantageous to Scotland’s interests is not, in fact, disadvantageous and that we should simply trust in Ministers’ good intentions, and I was right not to believe it.
After Brexit removed us from the protections offered by the EU, this Government began chipping away at even the limited powers of devolution. The UKIM Act, among many others, changed our constitutional arrangements without asking the people for their approval in a referendum, although they withheld their approval in the most recent Scottish parliamentary elections when, once again, the Tories lost.
Surely higher standards, not lower standards, should be the goal. An independent Scotland could take back control of that, in consultation with our sister countries upon our return to the EU. We could go back to respecting higher standards, and protecting consumers, the environment, brand reputations, our farming and fishing communities, the business and investment sectors, our exporters and jobs.
Following on from my question in Prime Minister’s questions today, another area that we would be able to look at once independent is the influence of organisations with opaque funding sources that have wormed their way into our politics. We have seen the recent spectacular crash of libertarian, ultra-right-wing ideas espoused by some of those organisations to gullible politicians just a few weeks ago. For a long time, UK politics has been dominated by a variety of so-called think-tanks, which are set up as a front, opaquely funded and which refuse to declare their financial sources. It is suspected that much of their funding could come from individuals and organisations based overseas, but it is very difficult to prove. Some may have been involved in the Cambridge Analytica scandal which may have contributed to the success of the Vote Leave campaign in the EU referendum. These are the kind of shadowy organisations we would have the powers to take action against in an independent Scotland—not to stop their voices, as the principle of free speech is something I would like to think we can all agree on in this place, but to make clear to the public the funding sources and possible vested interests at play, so that the Scottish public are fully informed and not played for fools.
To ensure that, of course, we would need a genuinely independent body to regulate elections. In February, the Electoral Commission took the highly unusual step of writing a public letter to the Tory Government to say that the provisions in the Elections Bill were
“inconsistent with the role that an independent electoral commission plays in a healthy democracy.”
The Elections Bill, we might recall, sailed through this place regardless. That is extremely worrying and it is contrary to international norms, and I think we would do much better.
We could take a much larger role in addressing the climate crisis and in fully exploiting our renewables potential. Clearly the existential threat of the climate emergency lies low on the new Prime Minister’s list of priorities. Even now, in the year the UK hands over the COP presidency, he demotes both the Climate Minister and the COP26 President from the Cabinet. In the meantime, new oil and gas licences are being issued, even as the Government must now come up with a new net zero strategy by March, after the High Court ruled that their previous plan was unlawful. The equivalent of almost 100% of Scotland’s gross electricity consumption is now generated from renewable sources, yet we remain locked in an energy market in which the price of electricity is tied to the price of gas.
Our contribution to the international fight against climate change gives a further glimpse of what might be possible with independence. That is true in terms of not just our action to cut emissions at home, but our proactive role in convening efforts on the world stage. Many of the worst consequences of the climate crisis are being felt in some of the poorest regions of the world, by people least responsible for its causes. So it is very pleasing that young people and women from countries in the global south are being given the opportunity to attend COP27 in Egypt as part of Scottish Government-funded programmes. Scotland was among the first nations to put fairness and justice at the heart of our international climate action. The Scottish Government have trebled the climate justice fund, to £36 million, which includes a financial commitment of £2 million to address loss and damage—we are the first country in the world to do so. That will help to meet the costs that would otherwise be borne by island nations and low-lying developing states. The SNP Scottish Government have also led an international coalition resulting in the Edinburgh declaration, urging increased action to tackle biodiversity loss. It now has 244 signatories from Governments, cities and local authorities representing every continent.
That ambition, innovation and pursuit of justice, which have characterised Scotland’s climate policy and international engagement, show us the potential and hope offered by independence. Hope—that is what this place finds so hard to crush in all of us who have that dream of a better Scotland. All we lack now is the final crucial faith in ourselves and our abilities to get there. I so look forward to shaking the dust of this place off our shoes and embarking on that fresh new path, with that wealth of talented people, resources, rich history and culture behind us, granting us fair winds and grasping the opportunities that await us very soon.
Several hon. Members rose—
Madam Deputy Speaker (Dame Eleanor Laing)
Order. I have tried to allow the debate to develop naturally, without time limits. I had hoped that there would be a few speeches of about seven or eight minutes, which would be perfectly reasonable. Since then, there have been some very long speeches. It would be better if we could manage without time limits, but that would mean people being self-disciplined and speaking for about seven minutes or so, which is actually quite a long time.
Allan Dorans (Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock) (SNP)
Madam Deputy Speaker, you will have heard from many of my SNP colleagues this afternoon. They have spoken eloquently and brought to the attention of the House many reasons, backed by an impressive range of views, statistics, hard facts and reasoned arguments, why Scotland should be an independent country.
I want to introduce a bit of history. It is fair to say that the history of Scotland and England has been marked by frequent periods of insurrection by Scots against English domination and frequent invasion of each other’s countries, resulting in ongoing wars of independence. From the late 13th century, those include Scottish victories at Stirling Bridge, with the Scots being led by William Wallace, who was tried here in Westminster Hall in 1305 and hanged, drawn and quartered for an alleged crime of treason—an offence for which he could not have been guilty, because he had sworn no allegiance to the English Crown. Following the battle of Bannockburn in 1314, in which the Scots were led by Robert the Bruce, King Edward III and the English Government recognised Bruce as King of an independent Scotland in the treaty of Edinburgh 1328.
It is recognised that the basis for the current Union began with the Act of Union 1707, which is used by Unionists to justify the continuation of this form of government. What is less well known is that, at the time of the Act, the majority of people in Scotland opposed the Union. It was negotiated by a very small minority of wealthy and influential people widely regarded as acting for their own benefit rather than that of the people of Scotland.
Rioting in Edinburgh and towns across Scotland was widely reported when the signature of the Act of Union was announced. Scotland—or the wealthy elite, at least—was also pressurised into agreeing with the Union by the introduction of the Alien Act 1705. That stated that, unless Scotland agreed to negotiate terms for union and accepted the Hanoverian succession by December 1705, there would be a ban on the import of all Scottish staple products into England. Scots would also lose the privileges of Englishmen under English law, thus endangering rights to any property they held in England. Many in Scotland considered themselves betrayed by their own elite. Christopher Smout, the eminent academic and historiographer royal in Scotland, argues that the Act of Union was able to pass only thanks to English bribery.
The point was also recognised by Rabbie Burns, our national bard. He was born in my constituency of Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock, where he decried and condemned those Members of the Parliament of Scotland who signed the Act of Union. His poem “Such a Parcel of Rogues in a Nation”, which he penned in 1791, concludes with the declaration:
“But pith and power, till my last hour,
I’ll mak’ this declaration;
We’re bought and sold for English gold—
Such a parcel of rogues in a nation!”
He was clearly referring to the wealthy elite of Scotland at that time.
I turn to the 2014 referendum, when the people of Scotland were bombarded with anti-independence propaganda with the full weight of the United Kingdom Government and other Unionist-supporting politicians in what has rightly become known as Project Fear. During the incessant campaign by a Unionist-biased media, including the BBC, several Unionist-supporting newspapers and an army of clandestine trolls on social media, the Scottish voting public were essentially scared out of voting for independence.
Pensioners were terrified and influenced by the false assertions and the prospect that their pensions would not be paid in an independent Scotland, that a number of large businesses would relocate to England, and that an independent Scotland would no longer be part of the European Union—we all know how that turned out, Mr Deputy Speaker. The people of Scotland are now wiser to this blatant pro-Unionist propaganda, including the discredited vow. The people of Scotland will not be fooled again.
Patricia Gibson (North Ayrshire and Arran) (SNP)
I am sure my hon. Friend would agree that what the people in Scotland are now seeing, as they have been since 2014, is that the Tories and Better Together are absolutely in lockstep, hand in glove, working together, exerting every effort, and straining every sinew to keep the people of Scotland trapped in this rotten Union. In the next referendum they will continue going round chapping pensioners’ doors and terrifying them into voting against Scottish independence by telling them lies about losing their pensions.
Allan Dorans
I welcome the intervention of my hon. Friend and I totally agree with her.
A significant reason for the need to be independent is the demographic deficit that exists in this United Kingdom. No matter how the people of Scotland vote, they will always be overruled by the Government of the United Kingdom. We are dictated to by a Government for whom the people of Scotland did not vote. This is clearly demonstrated by Brexit where 62% of the people in Scotland in all 32 local council areas voted to remain in the European Union, but, as we all know, Scotland was dragged out of Europe against our will.
Ian Murray
I thank the hon. Member for allowing me to intervene. I really take a great deal of offence at what he says about pensioners. While we are on pensioners, if he thinks that they were fearful about voting yes because of propaganda from the BBC and so on, can he tell us now, for the pensioners of Scotland, who will pay their pension in an independent Scotland?
Allan Dorans
The people of Scotland have paid into their pensions all of their working lives and will continue to be paid by the Scottish Government after independence.
Scotland has a clear and unprecedented political mandate to be an independent country, as witnessed at the ballot box. This is shown by the number of SNP Members elected to the Westminster Parliament, to the Scottish Parliament and in the Scottish local authority elections.
In the 2019 general election, the SNP won 49 of the 59 available Scottish parliamentary seats in Westminster. This is a clear and indisputable mandate for Scottish independence. Since the elections for the Scottish Parliament in May 2021, the SNP holds 64 of the 129 seats available, with the Conservatives achieving only 31 and Labour 22. That is an outstanding achievement with a voting system designed to prevent a significant majority by any one political party.
In the Scottish local elections held earlier this year, the SNP won 453 of the 1,227 seats available across the 32 local authority areas. Again, this was more than any other single party. It must be emphasised that the SNP MPs, MSPs and councillors won the highest number of seats of any party in every one of these elections and were all elected on a clear manifesto commitment to Scottish independence. In short, Scotland has a clear political mandate to be independent and to hold a referendum on independence, and it intends to do so on 19 October 2023.
Scotland has what it takes to be a modern, forward-looking, successful, welcoming independent country in the European Union, not tied to a Government in London whom they did not vote for and whose decisions and policies are not in the interests of the people of Scotland. We will always have a social and cultural relationship with our neighbours in England, but what we seek to change is the political relationship where decisions that affect the people of Scotland are best made by the people of Scotland. Decisions involving immigration, the economy, the environment, defence and foreign policy should be best suited to the wishes and needs of the people of Scotland.
Some of the unique benefits introduced since the reintroduction of the Scottish Parliament, which are the envy of our neighbours in the British Isles and throughout the world, include enhanced childcare provision, free prescriptions and sanitary products, free bus travel for those over 60, disabled people and those under 22, the Scottish child payment—described as game-changing—and additional support for care experienced young people. They also include free university tuition based on the ability to learn rather than the ability to pay, which has enabled people to obtain university education, and many other outstanding initiatives that demonstrate that Scotland is leading the world as a more equal, caring and compassionate country.
Scotland has a long history of contributing to the modern world. Winston Churchill commented, “Of all the small nations on this Earth, perhaps only the Ancient Greeks surpass the Scots in their contribution to mankind.” It was reported only last weekend in The Guardian that the University of St Andrews was assessed as the top university in the United Kingdom, beating Oxford and Cambridge. Scotland also had a further four universities in the top 18 in the United Kingdom.
Most important to the country is our people. They are innovative, inventive people, who have contributed to developing all aspects of the modern world, including the previously mentioned Robert Burns, Adam Smith, David Hume, Alexander Fleming, David Livingstone, Sir Sean Connery, Sir Alex Ferguson, Charles Rennie Mackintosh, J. M. Barrie—
Allan Dorans
Thank you—James Watt, Andy Murray, Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, Sir Chris Hoy and many more, and outstanding politicians including Keir Hardie, John Smith and, of course, Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland.
My hon. Friend the Member for Stirling (Alyn Smith) memorably said in the European Parliament in 2019, prior to our having Brexit forced upon us, that
“if we in Scotland are removed from our family of nations against our will—against our clearly democratically expressed view—independence will be our only route back…I am asking you to leave a light on so that we can find our way home.”
There is much support in the European Union, which indicates that Scotland will be warmly welcomed back into the European Union as a free and politically independent country.
Scotland has its own unique identity, history and culture and a diverse modern economy, with an abundance of renewable energy resources, a world-class food and drink industry, a booming tourism sector and advanced manufacturing, financial and business services. We are at the cutting edge of the industries of the future, such as life sciences, which are the envy of countries across the world.
Mike Kane (Wythenshawe and Sale East) (Lab)
On advanced manufacture, will the hon. Gentleman give way?
Allan Dorans
No, I am almost finished. I will not give way, because the hon. Gentleman has only been in the Chamber a few minutes and this debate has been going on for three and a half hours.
In addition, Scotland has one of the most innovative, highly skilled, educated and resourceful people in the world. With independence, we will always get the Government we voted for; we will not have to waste money on Westminster priorities such as Brexit and Trident and we will be able to have economic and social policies fully tailored to Scotland’s own circumstances. Decisions affecting Scotland must be made by the people of Scotland. Our future should be in our hands, not those of a Conservative Government that Scotland—as we have heard many times—has not voted for since 1955.
I confidently predict that Scotland will be a thriving, more equal, fairer, greener and more successful independent country and that we will find our way home and again be part of the European Union very soon. It is only a matter of time.
Several hon. Members rose—
Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Nigel Evans)
Order. Will everybody please resume their seats? Madam Deputy Speaker suggested speeches of seven minutes, and that speech was almost twice the limit she suggested. It is not doing any favours to other colleagues in the SNP, the vast majority of whom would want to contribute in this debate. Please can you look to seven minutes and no more?
Owen Thompson (Midlothian) (SNP)
A few weeks ago, Christine Grahame MSP and I co-hosted a cost of living support event in Gorebridge in my constituency. We invited along energy providers, community groups, food banks and suicide prevention charities. As constituents arrived and were able to access the help they needed, I started to think that it was a great success and that it was brilliant to see so many people there. But then I had to stop myself, because I started to think, “How did we get here? How did we become a society where food banks are normal and where we simply accept that poverty is growing and that suicide prevention charities face record numbers of calls?” The fact that we needed to hold that event at all is an alarming sign that the UK state has failed. When a country cannot guarantee its citizens a decent standard of living, with a roof over their head, heat in their home and food on the table, that country has failed to uphold its end of the social contract.
The most shocking thing about this crisis is that so much of it is inflicted by the Government. For instance, the energy crisis is far worse in the UK than it is elsewhere, because the Government have kept the energy companies private, ensuring that the money from bills goes towards profit, not investment that could help to ensure security of supply. The severity of the cost of living crisis has been exacerbated by the Government’s incompetence, with a kamikaze Budget sending mortgage rates skyrocketing and the pound crashing, which means that there is less money in people’s pockets and that the money that remains is worth less.
The truth is that the UK has been the poor man of Europe for years because the economy is set up to funnel wealth to the super-wealthy—to people such as the current Prime Minister—rather than to distribute it fairly to support those who need it most. Now, we are reaping what has been sown.
There is no doubt that this is a global crisis, but while other societies have been ready to catch the poorest in their safety nets, the net in the UK is a glaring hole. Somehow, British exceptionalism has kept its grip on policymaking, and although we are no longer a particularly well-off society but one where a tiny number of people have immense wealth, the idea that we are exceptional has meant that the Government have refused time and time again to look abroad and follow best practices.
To take the windfall tax, other countries have got serious about taxing the record profits that oil and gas companies have been making, but we have ignored the issue for months. Now we are left reeling from a failed Thatcherite experiment and looking down the barrel of austerity 2.0, with an economy so deliberately trashed that there is little option but to put money directly into people’s pockets, although the Government cannot even get that right. I recently met an 89-year-old constituent who cannot afford to heat her home because she, like thousands across Midlothian, relies on heating oil. The price of heating oil has skyrocketed to the point where she has spent £2,000 on it this year and expects to fork out at least another £1,000 over the coming winter. Yet the Government’s proposed support package for people using heating oil is £100—not even enough to get through a tenth of the winter.
Angela Crawley (Lanark and Hamilton East) (SNP)
Constituents in my area of Lanark have written to me about the fact that oil prices have continued to go up and that Government support is frankly woeful. Does my hon. Friend agree that the Government must do more to support those who are off the grid, especially in rural communities, because they simply have no other choice?
Owen Thompson
I absolutely agree with my hon. Friend. The support that is in place is welcome—I do not deny that, and I do not think anyone else here would—but we need much more, because far too many people, and especially those who are off the grid, have been left behind.
At the moment, we are on a sinking ship. The UK’s future is not bright, and there is little reason to doubt that our children’s economic prospects will only become worse than ours. Therefore, the question is whether we look around the sinking ship, shrug our shoulders and say, “It’s been fine up till now. There’s no point trying to change it. We’ll be just fine,” or we try something different. We do not have to go down with this sinking ship. Certainly for those of us in Scotland, there is a lifeboat; it might be smaller than the boat we are currently on, but we get to be its captain, and the folk we share it with have the same direction in mind as us. Once we are out on the open water, we will realise that there are plenty of other wee boats out there that are the same size as us and that they are working together so that they can weather the storms far better than the lonely old SS Britannia ever could.
That is what independence promises; it is not an instant fix, but it is the only reasonable path to a better future. Now, in a context where being part of the UK has left us with record inflation and soaring poverty, the idea that Scotland cannot afford independence is simply laughable. Norway was one of Europe’s poorest countries when it became independent in the early 20th century, and Ireland’s era of independence began with war and destruction. For them, however, independence was not the problem; it was the solution. Independence allowed them to grab hold of all the economic powers at their disposal and to respond to crises however they wished. Now, we look to both countries as models of stunning economic success.
The truth is that we are in pretty dire straits as part of the UK. Even if we choose independence, we will inherit the mess that being part of the UK has left us with. That is not an argument against independence; it is a fundamental part of why we need it now. We can no longer afford to remain a part of this broken Union, and the people of Scotland need to be able to have that say, and have it soon.
Several hon. Members rose—
Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Nigel Evans)
Order. That speech was easily within seven minutes; that is the way to do it.
Kenny MacAskill (East Lothian) (Alba)
It is a pleasure to speak in this debate, which covers the two crisis issues of our time: the collapse of the British economy and the kick-on effects on our society, and the vital need for Scottish independence. That is encapsulated in the perversity that Scotland is energy rich, yet Scots will be fuel poor this winter. The economy is faltering as a result of the Truss experiment, but the rot started before that. It started with a hard Brexit forced upon Scotland, and the situation has worsened and the pace has accelerated.
As a consequence, we have another perversity in that, as we have been taking part in this debate in this Chamber, the Deputy First Minister of Scotland has been speaking in Holyrood imposing swingeing public service cuts that will have an impact on Scotland’s poorest. What a perversity that that has happened. Of course, the responsibility rests with the budgetary situation in the UK and the Scottish Government’s limited ability to react, but it is why we should be moving fast for independence, and that is why we have to ask, “What has been done?”
Mandates have come and mandates have gone, just as mañana follows mañana. We are now told there is to be a referendum next year, just as I was told there was going to be a referendum next year ever since I first went into the SNP group in December 2019. Maybe there will be a referendum next year, but I do not see a great deal of preparation by the SNP or the Scottish Government to ensure that it will actually take place or that we are going to win it. That takes away from the need for Scotland to be sovereign. All the preparation we have had has been a few papers.
I will not go further on that, but the reference to the Supreme Court, far from being a wizard wheeze by the Scottish Lord Advocate, is frankly a counsel of despair. We will see what the outcome of that will be but, at the end of the day, it is the right of the Scottish people to choose their own destiny, and that cannot be usurped either by a UK Supreme Court or by a British Parliament.
The situation has changed as a result of Brexit. We did lose the referendum in 2014, but we came remarkably close. The UK had to call in favours from all and sundry, including President Obama, and just about did it, but we can do it the next time. The risk has also changed, because in 2014 the risk was that we would lose our EU membership. The risk was that people would lose their pension or the NHS that is so dear to us. The risk was having an unstable currency. The risk was not being part of a British force for good. But the situation is that we have had Brexit and been ripped out of the EU, sterling is plummeting, the NHS and our pensions are being privatised and undermined, and Britain, far from being a force for good, is an international laughing stock. What is so great about being British when people can see the turbines turning from their home but will not be able to heat their house this winter?
What is being done? Where is the action? That question is why I have to move on to what needs to be done. First, the Bill for a Scottish independence referendum should be launched in the Scottish Parliament. If the Lord Advocate is not prepared to do it, get a Minister or another member of the SNP to do it. Launch it forthwith, so that when it comes before the Supreme Court for a decision, it will not be a simple referral from the Scottish Government, but have standing behind it the sovereign will of the Scottish people, decided by their Parliament. The Scottish National party still has the time to get out of the fire and ensure that Holyrood passes that Bill.
Secondly, let us call a Scottish constitutional convention. At the end of the day, the people of Scotland are sovereign. As we have heard from speaker after speaker, especially on the SNP Benches, they should be sovereign through the Government that they elect, not one that they have not elected since 1955. Why do we need our Scottish countrymen? Let us look around. How many people do we have on the Tory Benches? Five. How many are sitting on the Labour Benches? Four. Will that make any difference? What matters is that the people of Scotland’s elected representatives should decide.
In February 2020, the First Minister of Scotland said that she would call a constitutional convention. Let us call that convention and make it clear that it is the Scottish people, through their democratically elected Scottish representatives whether in this Chamber or other Chambers or as senior members of local government—
Kenny MacAskill
No, I am running out time. I am the only speaker from my party. The hon. Member’s party has undermined the cause of independence and sided with the Tories, which is why it paid the electoral price.
As I was saying, we need a constitutional convention. We need the First Minister to lead from the front and get active in demonstrations in support of Scottish democratic sovereignty and the legitimate right of our people. We need to pursue this through not just the UK Supreme Court but international courts and aspects. This is a position on which we have to make a stand.
The Scots will struggle this winter. That an energy-rich Scotland will probably see people dying as a result of a fuel crisis is simply perverse. We have had enough mandates; it is time to have our choice, as is our right. That has to be delivered through a referendum. If the Government will not give us a referendum, another route needs to be chosen. The Scottish people will not get any satisfaction from the Government or the Opposition in this Chamber, which is why we have to make sure that there is a convention and that the democratic right of the Scottish people prevails.
Steven Bonnar (Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill) (SNP)
I take the opportunity to remind the House that no asylum seeker raided or looted pension funds, no asylum seeker used fire and rehire tactics to sack an entire workforce, no asylum seeker tanked the economy, and no asylum seeker is illegal.
I rise to speak in favour of the motion on the Order Paper. The UK that Scotland voted to remain part of in 2014 has gone—Brexit has seen to that. The security and freedoms of our place in the EU, as promised with that no vote, are gone—Brexit has seen to them. The financial stability of the “broad shoulders” of the UK has gone—Brexit continues to see to that. The previous Prime Minister, the right hon. Member for South West Norfolk (Elizabeth Truss), and her Chancellor, the right hon. Member for Spelthorne (Kwasi Kwarteng), assisted with that in a spectacular fashion for all the world to see.
The Tory cost of living crisis is spiralling completely out of control. It is putting lives and livelihoods at risk, with the poorest households in our communities being hit hardest. The reality is that we can no longer afford not to be independent in Scotland. As things stand, the poorest people in the UK are the poorest people in the whole of western Europe, while the richest in the UK are the wealthiest in the whole of western Europe. That is right: the poorest people in western Europe are in London, not Lisbon or Larne. The hardest working and poorest paid people with the poorest pensions are in Bellshill, not Berlin or Bern.
That gap between the richest and poorest tells people all they need to know about this right-wing Tory Government and their priorities after 12 painful years in power, including the coalition of chaos with the Liberal Democrats. The economy is broken, the NHS is decimated, immigration is out of control and our standing in the world is a laughing stock. It is a shameful record.
If the Government have any desire at all to change that and ease the pressures on Scottish households, it is imperative that they uprate all social security benefits in line with current rates of inflation. All hon. Members, as representatives of the people, must do all we can to support the most vulnerable through this cost of living crisis. The Tories must ensure that the universal credit uplift is reinstated for all and increased to £25 a week, and that it is extended to all those who have been left, as if they are some Tory afterthought not worthy of the Government’s attention, on legacy benefits.
We must also protect our pensioners. The Government’s triple lock betrayal with regard to the state pension is an undiluted attack on pensioners’ incomes. The Prime Minister refused again today to give them some peace of mind by committing to the triple lock. Those same pensioners, who are the poorest in western Europe with the lowest pensions, are among those most hard hit by this cost of living crisis. Over a decade of Tory policies have pushed people deeper into poverty and further into destitution, and families are out there right now fighting hunger. This is the Union.
Drew Hendry
My hon. Friend is making a very powerful speech. He is talking about those people fighting poverty. Does he agree with me that it is a disgrace that, because of the actions of this place and Brexit, we have seen food inflation pushed to such high levels that basic items are now 60% up on a few years ago? It is really hard for people to survive in those circumstances, is it not?
Steven Bonnar
I thank my hon. Friend for his intervention. We are being attacked from every possible angle, whether it is food or—in the case of mortgage rates—housing. The Government are sitting on their hands—rearranging the chairs on a sinking ship every now and again—and it is doing no good for the people out there.
The last few months have made it abundantly clear that Scotland cannot rely on this UK Government as we attempt to get Scotland through this cost of living crisis. It is vital that we have a choice, and the choice is thus: we can choose the insular chaos of this place, and to continue to live amid the ruins of this broken Union and among the self-destructive whims of these two parties; or we can choose a different way, and be free from the perennial damage of Brexit, the worst of which is still to bite. We can also have the choice of the Scottish people’s priorities, the choice of how we plan and deliver on our green future, the choice of how we treat the most vulnerable in our communities—as I have said, no person is illegal—and, of course, the choice of the Scottish people to determine their own futures free of Westminster rule.
Patricia Gibson
My hon. Friend is making a powerful and impassioned speech. Does he share my deep disappointment that the Labour party in Scotland would rather work with the Tories to keep Scottish households locked into this destructive Union than help Scotland work towards a better future when it governs its own affairs?
Steven Bonnar
I thank my hon. Friend for her intervention, and I agree with every single word she said. I am here from North Lanarkshire, and while Labour talks about having no coalitions, Labour in North Lanarkshire Council is being propped up not only by the Conservatives there, but by a sole British Unionist politician. That is the Labour party, and it plays two sides of the same coin because it has to appeal to Tory voters to squeeze a couple of them in and get them through the doors. Would the hon. Member for Edinburgh South (Ian Murray) like to intervene? No, so I will continue.
I was talking about choices, and we can choose to be a member of the European Union. We can choose our independence, and with that Scotland could be part of a huge single market that is seven times the size of this shrinking UK market. If we look north to Norway, we see that its national income per head is around 48% higher than that of the UK, while Ireland’s is 45% higher, Denmark’s 30% higher, the Netherlands’s 25% higher and Austria’s 24% higher. Those are all nations comparable with our wee bit of highland glen.
Steven Bonnar
If the hon. Gentleman wants to get up on his feet, he can intervene, but if he is going to chunter, he can stay sitting down and keep quiet, and we will get on with it.
Mike Kane
On looking north to Norway and the Union, I have some statistics. I can tell the hon. Gentleman who looks north to Norway: it is probably Orkney. Orkney voted against devolution in 1997 and it voted against independence. It has never voted for the SNP, and it has a Government it has never voted for, who are in Holyrood. So will Orkney have independence?
Steven Bonnar
The hon. Gentleman has made some pretty ridiculous points, which I will not entertain. I am going to move quickly on, because you are really pushed for time, Mr Deputy Speaker, and so am I.
Through its membership of the European Union, independent Ireland dramatically reduced its trade dependence on the UK. It has diversified into Europe, and in the process its national income per head has, once again, overtaken that of the UK. Scotland simply cannot afford to be part of the UK any longer. The positive case for the Union has evaporated. Now is the time to leave the broken Westminster system behind, and to have full powers of independence so we can begin to set Scotland on the right path.
Finally—let me make this perfectly clear—the Better Together no campaign, in which the Labour and Conservative parties cosied up to each other, was based on lies and built on fear. Brexit and its ramifications for our freedoms has rendered the 2014 referendum out of date and, quite simply, to the people I represent the result is no longer valid. No Government in this place—not Tory, not Labour—offer Scotland’s people a route back to Europe. They both back Brexit, while we back Scotland, and the only route back to Europe for Scotland is through Scottish independence.
Angus Brendan MacNeil (Na h-Eileanan an Iar) (SNP)
It is a great pleasure and privilege to follow my hon. Friend the Member for Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill (Steven Bonnar), and an absolute barnstorm of a speech—excellent. This has been a good debate. I wish to extend a hand and a bit of friendship across the Chamber, as I was particularly taken by the hon. Member for Banff and Buchan (David Duguid), who did at least accept interventions and deal with debate, unlike the Secretary of State who called for a sensible and serious debate, but would not actually debate.
Something interesting happened in this debate. My hon. Friend the Member for Perth and North Perthshire (Pete Wishart) is to be particularly congratulated, because in one speech he got six unopposed motions through this Parliament. On 2 July 1266, the treaty of Perth joined the Hebrides and the Isle of Man to Scotland. After that speech, perhaps we can add the statutes of Perth from 2 November 2022, in which my hon. Friend passed six motions in his speech, the first being the magnificent achievement of having all parties—perhaps not the Lib Dems—agree that an independent Scotland would be a successful independent country.
We must consider where we were are today and our starting point and, as Robert Burns said:
“To see ourselves as others see us!”
Last week, The Atlantic magazine, a 165-year-old publication from Washington DC, had an article about the UK, which Scotland is in. The title of that interesting article was, “How the UK Became One of the Poorest Countries in Western Europe”, and it contained an avalanche of facts and statistics, some of which should be put in front of the House. It states:
“Behind the lurid headlines, however, is a deeper story of decades-long economic dysfunction that holds lessons for the future.”
It says that the UK is “a wealthy nation” that gave capitalism to the industrialised world,
“But strictly by the numbers, Britain is pretty poor for a rich place. UK living standards…have fallen significantly behind those of Western Europe. By some measures, in fact, real wages in the UK are lower than they were 15 years ago, and will likely be even lower next year.”
To see ourselves as others see us. It continues:
“Under Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s, markets were deregulated, unions were smashed, and the financial sector emerged as a jewel of the British economy. Thatcher’s injection of neoliberalism had many complicated knock-on effects…When the global financial crisis hit in 2008, it hit hard, smashing the engine of Britain’s economic ascent. Wary of rising deficits, the British Government pursued a policy of austerity—"
the folly of George Osborne—
“fretting about debt rather than productivity or aggregate demand. The results were disastrous.”
I could go on, and I commend the article to anybody who wants to read exactly what is being said about the UK by that influential American publication. It is so unlike what is going on in Ireland and the other countries we have mentioned—such as Scandinavia and the Nordic countries—that are ahead of us in the human development index.
The final excerpt I will read states:
“Take out Greater London—the prosperity of which depends to an uncomfortable degree on a willingness to provide services to oligarchs from the Middle East and the former Soviet Union—and the UK is one of the poorest countries in Western Europe.”
We live in a state that basically governs for London and nowhere else, and demands that the rest of us should be grateful. There is no meaningful engagement with other parts of the UK.
Last week, the University of Parma in Italy published a report on my constituency entitled, “Migrants as actors of Scottish rural depopulation”. In its extensive study, it called for two things. One was to remove English language skills as an entry condition, which is a barrier to people coming to work, and to make them instead an integration goal. As we have seen in the Hebrides, people who come do learn English—some even learn words of Gaelic. It is amazing what happens on the ground outside the fantastical thinking of the Home Office. The other was dealing with an occupation list that shows up regional needs. That can be done in Switzerland, and we could do it in the UK.
If we lived in a proper union, the Home Office would not be a far-away home counties office and we would not need to beseech and send letters to it, deal with the revolving door of Immigration Ministers, or send delegations there. Instead, the Home Office would come to us to find out the problems and to try to deal with them. The fact is that the Home Office and the UK Government are not interested.
As we know, migrants are important. A small stat in the report showed that the 3% of migrants whom we were lucky to have come to Na h-Eileanan an Iar contributed 7% of our island births. Our islands’ future depends on them, our culture depends on them and our lives on the islands depend on them, but the Home Office is not interested.
Scotland in the UK will experience a population decrease, with the fall expected to be 2%. Some might think that a unique Scottish problem, but it is not. When we see the difficulties around us, we understand why the UK is failing. Over the next 30 years, the population of our neighbours in Ireland will increase by 20%, in Iceland by 32%, in Norway by 13%, and in Denmark by 10%. That illustrates how, no matter what they say about the statistics, the UK is failing Scotland, and rural Scotland in particular. The best example is the Faroe Islands—the most geographically isolated of all places—whose population will grow by 6% over the same period. Something needs to be done. We need our population to grow. The only thing that will make a material difference is for us to take control of matters in the same sensible way as Iceland, Norway and Denmark. It is reprehensible of the Labour party to go shoulder to shoulder with Better Together and to denude and degrade the rural populations of Scotland. Put simply, it does not care at all.
Whenever we say where Scotland needs to go and what we are going to do, a number of people ask how we will finance it. They never point out that the UK has not paid its own way for 70 to 80 years. In fact, of all the moneys borrowed in that time, it has paid back only 1.7% of them. The UK has been failing. In nine of the 11 years under Margaret Thatcher—one of the people who misleads and beguiles the Tory party—she ran a deficit. Had it not been for the subsidy of Scottish oil, she would probably have run a deficit in all 11 of those years, but she had the bonus of 8% of her tax revenue—one pound in every 12—coming from Scotland’s natural resources. Unlike Norway, where the money was saved for the good of the people, she and her party squandered that.
The Supreme Court will very soon decide what will happen in Scotland. It is likely to decide that the Scotland Act 1998 does not provide the powers for the Scottish Parliament to hold a referendum. That will leave us with a choice. Whether it be a referendum or an election, we will have a ballot box event to decide Scottish independence. We could wait for a Westminster election, have a Holyrood election or engineer an election at Holyrood with one simple question on Scottish independence and get ourselves safe and away from the economic extremists in the United Kingdom Parliament and Government. That is a debate for us internally, and it is a debate for Scots. I hope that we have that debate and that we decide rationally and collectively choose together.
It is likely that the Supreme Court will say that the powers do not exist to have a referendum under the Scotland Act. We will have ways and options after that, and the people here who object to Scotland deciding and who think that Scotland does not have a right to self-determination will be sorry and disappointed. We will have our say. The people of Scotland can speak, and they will speak.
Democracy is not a one-term event. Democracy demands that, after the events of 2016 when Scotland was taken out of the EU against its will, Scotland shall speak and Scotland shall decide. None of us can say no to the people. Nobody can say to a nation, “You will go this far and no further,” because if Scotland wants to go further, Scotland will, and it will go to independence.
Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Nigel Evans)
That was another long seven minutes. Christine Jardine, please show Mr MacNeil how it is done.
Christine Jardine (Edinburgh West) (LD)
I will do my best, Mr Deputy Speaker, and thank you very much for calling me to speak.
This is one Scot who can and will speak but who will not repeat the nonsense we have heard from the SNP Benches this evening. When I saw the motion I, like my hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh South (Ian Murray), was pleased. I thought that, at last, we were going to talk about the economic damage that has been done to our country—by which I mean the United Kingdom—by the Conservative Government. At last, we were going to talk about the damage done by their financial event, or whatever we want to call it, last month, about the need for the triple lock, and about the damage that has been done to our economy and the mismanagement throughout the pandemic. That is what my constituents in Edinburgh West talk to me about when I go to their doorsteps. They want a change. They want a different Government. They want a different approach. What they do not want, and what they regularly tell me they are fed up hearing about, is independence. That is why, like my hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh South, I am disappointed that yet again this obsession is being brought up in the House.
Regardless of what might be claimed, the Scottish National party does not speak for the people of Scotland. The Scottish National party does not even speak for the majority of the people of Scotland. At the last count for Westminster, the hon. Members on the SNP Benches spoke for 45% of the people of Scotland, which means that those of us elsewhere in this House speak for the majority of the people in Scotland. The majority of the people in Scotland want the Government, both Governments in fact, to focus on—[Interruption.] I listened to the hon. Member for Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Angus Brendan MacNeil), so if he does not mind. The people of Scotland want both of their Governments to focus on the problems they are facing, including the energy prices we all face this winter and the cost of living, which is forcing families to choose between feeding their children and heating their homes. And they tell me that they want the First Minister of Scotland to drop the independence obsession and focus on the problems they face now.
Another issue that has been raised with me recently on the doorstep in Edinburgh is Europe and Brexit, and the SNP claim that the people of Scotland were dragged out of Europe against their will. One of my constituents said to me angrily a few weeks ago, “Can you please tell the Scottish National party to stop appropriating my vote? I did not vote for Scotland to be in the European Union; I voted for the United Kingdom to be in the European Union and I voted to stay in the United Kingdom.” I believe in the free will of the people of Scotland and I believe in the settled will of the people of Scotland. I worked for a Scottish Parliament, unlike the Scottish National party until the very last minute. I believe that the people of Scotland have free will and I believe that they exercised it in 2014 when they voted to stay in the United Kingdom.
The second half of the motion talks about the economic plans for Scotland and the Scottish Government’s independence papers series. I am well aware that if I now start to criticise those papers and talk about their flaws, I will be accused of speaking on behalf of Project Fear. [Interruption.] That is why I am going to quote some independent assessments. David Phillips, of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said that the Scottish Government’s new paper on post-independence economic plans
“skirts around what achieving sustainability would likely require in the first decade of an independent Scotland: bigger tax rises or spending cuts that the UK government will have to pursue.”
Richard Murphy, professor of accounting practice at Sheffield University Management School, said:
“I think this paper lays out a policy that would be disastrous for Scotland.”
Robin McAlpine has been mentioned, and rather than use unparliamentary language I will not use his full quote, except to say that he does not really have any solutions for the border. Writing in The Scotsman, economist John McLaren concluded that
“the report is incoherent as it refuses to acknowledge exceptional circumstances and necessary trade-offs.”
The problem that a great many of us in Scotland have is that we believe that the United Kingdom is not perfect. It needs reform. We need to move forward to a more federal system. What we do not need to do is break it up, particularly at a time of economic crisis and hardship for our people, which would only be made worse by some wanting to pursue an ideological obsession that is not in the best interests of the majority of the people of Scotland.
I will make one last point. A Labour Member—the hon. Member for Wythenshawe and Sale East (Mike Kane)—was ridiculed for using the example of Orkney. I point out to hon. Members that, during the last independence referendum, there was a saying, “It’s Shetland’s oil”. Orkney and Shetland have never voted for the SNP at Holyrood, and for more than 70 years they have voted for Liberal Democrats at Westminster. The people of Scotland are a diverse, wonderful body who have many different voices, which they do not want to be silenced by SNP Members in the way that they constantly try to do. So please have respect for the many voices, listen to the people of Scotland when they say, “It’s the economy, stupid”, and focus on that.
Ronnie Cowan (Inverclyde) (SNP)
Norway has been mentioned a lot this afternoon, has it not? I had the good fortune to visit Norway last week. I met representatives from Parliament, Government, academia, the civil service, trade unions and non-governmental organisations, and I was struck by the way that they worked together with respect and trust to create a better Norway for everyone. Had I suggested to them that they were too small to be an independent nation, and that they would be better sharing their governance or their financial levers with their Scandinavian neighbours, they would have laughed me out of the room. I noticed that none of the Unionist MPs on the trip with me asked that question either. It is strange how that respect is afforded to Norway—a small, northern European, independent, sovereign nation of 5 million people—but not to Scotland.
Norway has alliances with other countries within which they co-operate. All of that is negotiated between equals who respect one another. Norway became independent in 1905 and has never looked back. It has experienced some tough times, but Norwegians took on the problems and solved them. That is how normal countries work.
That reminded me of Hugh MacDiarmid’s poem, “Scotland small?”:
“Scotland small? Our multiform, our infinite Scotland small?
Only as a patch of hillside may be a cliché corner
To a fool who cries ‘Nothing but heather!’ where in September another
Sitting there and resting and gazing around
Sees not only the heather but blaeberries
With bright green leaves and leaves already turned scarlet,
Hiding ripe blue berries; and amongst the sage-green leaves
Of the bog-myrtle the golden flowers of the tormentil shining;
And on the small bare places, where the little Blackface sheep
Found grazing, milkworts blue as summer skies;
And down in neglected peat-hags, not worked
Within living memory, sphagnum moss in pastel shades
Of yellow, green, and pink; sundew and butterwort
Waiting with wide-open sticky leaves for their tiny winged prey;
And nodding harebells vying in their colour
With the blue butterflies that poise themselves delicately upon them;
And stunted rowans with harsh dry leaves of glorious colour.
‘Nothing but heather!’—How marvellously descriptive! And incomplete!”
That is how it works. If the Unionists think Scotland is too small, they make it so because of their crushing lack of ambition and confidence in themselves and their fellow Scots, but they will not enforce their dystopian vision of an impoverished Scotland on me. I choose MacDiarmid’s view of a flourishing Scotland over the barren views of the Unionists any and every day of the week. Maybe they should ask themselves why Scotland has not voted for the Conservatives and Unionists in any significant numbers since 1955.
Among the statistics that outline Scotland’s wealth and, importantly, its potential, it is interesting to note that we have 61% of the seawater of the United Kingdom and the majority of the natural gas, crude oil, coal reserves, timber production and so on. That is not what we would expect of a country that is told that it is dependent on Westminster and that we are too poor to be independent.
As we transition away from fossil fuels, however, there are two figures that interest me more. First, Scotland has more than 25% of all the wind and wave energy potential in Europe. That is where our energy will come from as part of a clean, green, renewable energy package, providing for today’s needs while safeguarding the future for generations to come. The second figure is that Scotland has 90% of all the UK’s surface freshwater. Economists predict that water will be the new oil. We have more water in Loch Ness than all of England and Wales combined. Scotland has 31,000 freshwater lochs, equating to 100 times more water than it uses.
We can be self-sufficient in beef, sheep, dairy, pigs, cereal and potatoes. We are not too poor. We must not allow ourselves to be drawn down into the poverty mindset of the Scottish Unionist parliamentarians. Their poverty of aspiration does not reflect the economy of an independent Scotland; it reflects their desire to maintain the status quo and scare the people of Scotland into compliance with a UK Government who have shown themselves to be economically illiterate, out of touch with the needs of the majority of people and interested only in the inner machinations of their own party.
There is only one way in which Scotland can experience the benefits of our own resources, which is for all political decisions made for the people of Scotland to be made by the people of Scotland. There is only one path that leads to greater ownership and responsibility. There is only one outcome that provides the autonomy and the power required to grow and develop a strong, vibrant, inclusive and sovereign nation: independence from the corrupt and moribund United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
With an independence referendum, we have an opportunity to re-establish an independent nation and, importantly, design that nation. With all the financial levers, together we can design welfare, banking, taxation, land ownership, foreign policy, defence, education, energy, health and transport in a fashion and to a standard that we feel is fitting and appropriate, built by Scotland for all of Scotland.
The wind of change is blowing. It will bring with it a nation full of hope, ambition, opportunity, respect, co-operation and equality. It is up to everyone who believes that Scotland must be a free and independent sovereign nation if it is to reach its potential to work together to achieve that aim. If we allow ourselves to become fractionalised as a force, we are beaten. We must keep our eyes on the prize, and we shall achieve our goal.
Dame Nia Griffith (Llanelli) (Lab)
It is very important that we do not confuse the institution of the UK Government with this shambles of a Tory Government. Their performance over the past 12 years, compounded by the disastrous Budget on 23 September and followed by four weeks of inaction in which they were too slow to stop the damage, has left people up and down the country in real difficulties. It has left our allies shocked and our reputation on the international stage trashed. People now face higher mortgage payments, higher interest rates, a 12-year squeeze on public sector pay and benefits, and rampant inflation—all because of this Tory Government’s obsession with tax cuts for the rich.
To that extent, I very much agree with the first part of the motion, but we must separate the failure of this Tory Government from the concept of being in the United Kingdom. I am very proud to be Welsh and to speak Welsh, and I know that Scottish people are rightly proud to be Scottish, but I am also proud to be British. We in Wales and Scotland have so much to gain from being part of the UK. It is not about nostalgia or an outdated view of the United Kingdom; it is about a recognition of the UK’s current position in the world.
Admittedly, this Tory Government have done their best to trash our reputation. Nevertheless, we are an important economy—the sixth largest national economy in the world—and we are in the G7. That gives us influence—an influence that Wales and Scotland would never have on their own, and an influence that can be used for good, as we saw when the banks crashed the economy and caused the financial of crisis of 2008. The Labour Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, was instrumental in persuading other world leaders to take the necessary mitigating action, showing real leadership. That same Gordon Brown had secured an agreement from the G7 in 2005 to get the debts of the 18 poorest countries in the world cancelled by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. I could go on, talking about his tackling the AIDS and HIV crisis, and providing education for girls worldwide. That is the sort of influence that we can wield as the United Kingdom.
The same applies to climate change, which is of huge concern to many people in Wales and Scotland. We all recognise that tackling it has to be a joint effort, not just throughout the UK but by nations across the world. As the UK we have much greater influence—notwithstanding the appalling pantomime we have seen from the current Prime Minister, first snubbing COP27, the success of which is vital to the very future of life on earth, and then finally being shamed into grudgingly attending—but in the past, we as the UK have used our influence for good. When Labour was in government we passed the Climate Change Act 2008, a world first, and we showed leadership on the world stage in conferences from Kyoto to Copenhagen.
Labour has delivered on devolution to Wales and Scotland, which has enabled us to do things differently. In Wales, for example, Labour placed a moratorium on fracking. It has allowed and encouraged the roll-out of onshore wind. It provides a wide range of additional support grants to help the poorest, and is now consulting on radical changes in business rates. Scottish Labour has called on the Scottish National party to use its power to do more by topping up the Scottish welfare fund, writing off school meals arrears, and providing extra funds for money advice services.
However, critical to getting the best from devolution is a good relationship between the UK Government and the devolved national Governments. Our Labour vision for that relationship is a vision of respect and co-operation—of a Union of nations which want to work together for the greater good of all. Unfortunately, that has not always been the case with this Tory Government, as we saw most recently when the former Tory Prime Minister failed to pick up the phone to the Welsh or the Scottish First Minister during her term of office. That is precisely the sort of behaviour that we do not want, because of course it breeds resentment and makes us feel angry, and the Tory Government are just feeding the calls for independence.
Similarly, with the passing of the United Kingdom Internal Market Act 2020 we saw a Tory Government ride roughshod over the devolved nations, driving forward acceptance of the lowest common denominator in terms of environmental standards. We could have had a much more constructive and consensual dialogue. We must not forget that things could be different. At the time of the recent trade treaties with Australia and New Zealand, the officials in the Department for International Trade were helpful in working with the Welsh Government, but that should not be left to chance. We need a proper concordat, enshrining proper processes and consultation, to accord the devolved nations the respect and influence that they deserve on issues that affect Wales and Scotland respectively.
So yes, we definitely need to improve the working of devolution and the relationship between devolved Governments and the UK Government, but the answer is not independence—not because Scotland could not be independent, but because there are substantial issues which need to be considered but which the SNP tends to gloss over. For instance, as my hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh South (Ian Murray) explained so clearly, there is the issue of a new currency being devalued. That would cause major difficulties, with people being paid in the new currency but having to make mortgage payments at the value of the UK pound. There is also the problem of how Scotland would cope with its share of the UK national debt, not to mention, of course, the uncertainty over pensions.
We have all seen the complications that Brexit has thrown up. Given that the majority of Scottish exports go to the rest of the UK, the idea of a hard border, as proposed by the First Minister of Scotland, will be sending shudders through Scotland’s economy. Ultimately, however, it is the opinion of the people in Scotland that matters. As has been mentioned already, 18 of the last 19 opinion polls have shown that a majority are not in favour of independence. They want the Scottish Government to concentrate on helping them with their day-to-day problems, and to stop obsessing about independence.
Ms Anum Qaisar (Airdrie and Shotts) (SNP)
I have to say that I was shocked by the previous speaker’s contribution. In 2014, I campaigned for an independent Scotland as a member of the Labour party. I joined the SNP after the referendum; my final straw was when Labour joined the Tories in September 2014 to vote for air strikes in Iraq. Independence is not about the SNP or Nicola Sturgeon; it is about self- determination for the people of Scotland.
From covid contract scandals to people making their rich mates Lords, there is so much that is broken about Westminster and how this place protects the rich. This year, Shell has paid zero windfall tax in the UK despite making record global profits of nearly £26 billion. BP made £7.1 billion between July and September, which is more than double its profits in the same period last year. At the same time, I have constituents who are struggling to heat the food they are getting from food banks. Not only can they no longer afford to buy food; they have to eat food cold because using microwaves, ovens or stoves is simply too expensive. This is not simply a national disgrace; it is immoral, it is evil and it is corporate greed, backed by Downing Street, where people take more and more for themselves and line their own pockets and could not care less about the ordinary person.
This year in the multiple Tory leadership elections we have had—who knows, we might have some more—the Tory candidates completely relinquished the fact that they were in government, that they were making the decisions and that they sat at the Cabinet table and have sat there for years. That lot have had 12 years in Downing Street and they have spent the last decade systematically dismantling the social security system and othering some of the most vulnerable in our communities. We have heard a Tory MP in this very Chamber say:
“We have generation after generation who cannot cook properly—they cannot cook a meal from scratch—and they cannot budget.”—[Official Report, 11 May 2022; Vol. 714, c. 185.]
That is revolting. Poverty is deepening, and it is sickening that the people of Scotland do not vote for the Tories yet will be subjected to austerity 2.0. The UK economy and the financial mismanagement from Westminster are simply not working for Scotland. The Tories are delivering low productivity, stagnant wages, high inequality and high poverty rates.
We could use the full powers of independence to build an inclusive, fair, wellbeing economy that works for everyone in Scotland. With independence we can develop an immigration policy that aligns with the values of the people of Scotland. Westminster is broken and this is not limited to the Tories. My immigrant grandfather always voted for the Labour party, yet recently we heard its leader saying that there was essentially little difference on immigration between the two parties. That is shameful. It is not something to be proud of. It is a disgrace. I am so proud—[Interruption.] I am not going to listen to the hon. Member for Edinburgh South (Ian Murray); he has had his time to speak, but that is exactly what his leader said.
I am so proud of the rejection from these Benches of the hostile, xenophobic anti-refugee and anti-immigrant policies from the Conservative side of the House. There are already stark differences on asylum policy between both Governments. The Tory Government want to send people who are fleeing war and persecution to Rwanda, while the Scottish Government’s new Scots refugee integration strategy is pushing a trauma-informed approach to ensure that the voices of those seeking asylum are placed at the heart of policy. No human being is illegal. To quote Warsan Shire:
“you have to understand,
that no one puts their children in a boat
unless the water is safer than the land”.
It is the creeping normalisation of othering from the Tories that is so chilling. I cannot believe that the Home Secretary had the audacity to stand at the Dispatch Box and use the word “invasion”. Forget the context; it is just the fact that she used the word “invasion” that is shameful. We also heard a Tory MP in this Chamber say:
“I do not wake up every day worrying about the welfare of people who have entered our country illegally”.—[Official Report, 31 October 2022; Vol. 721, c. 660.]
I feel compassion and concern for those who are fleeing war just as much as I feel compassion and concern for those living in poverty. These are not binary choices, yet this is straight out of the right-wing playbook. Whether people are working class, an immigrant, gay, lesbian or a trade unionist, this is what the Tories do: they pit communities against one another. They tell people that they are poor because they are not working hard enough, that they cannot find work because refugees are not actually fleeing war, that immigrants want to steal their jobs and benefits, or that it is the fault of pesky trade unionists.
The Tories’ national minimum wage is not a real living wage. The differing rates for young people are wholly unjust and discriminatory, and they do not account for young people’s needs, responsibilities and living costs. This is in contrast to the SNP, which proposes a single rate that better reflects the cost of living, with no lower rates for younger workers. Scotland’s gender, disability and ethnicity pay gaps would be addressed, in part, by introducing greater transparency on pay reporting. In an independent Scotland, I look forward to the unfair Trade Union Act 2016 being repealed.
We need an independent Scotland, as Scotland simply cannot afford to be part of the UK any more. Scotland is a country in its own right. It is not a colony or a region. Independence will give Scotland the ability to get rid of nuclear weapons from the Clyde, independence will give Scotland the ability to tackle the climate emergency, and an independent Scotland will always get the Government she votes for.
Tommy Sheppard (Edinburgh East) (SNP)
I start with the red wall Tories. Our absent friends in the north are surely on a sticky wicket. For years, and for decades in some cases, they burrowed away in once solid Labour fiefdoms, angry at what was happening to their communities. They created a false narrative that these problems were the result of wanton neglect by their political opponents, rather than the inevitable consequence of being on the periphery of a capitalist economy that is overcentralised and under-regulated. But they broke through in 2019, and they came here. Tribunes of the people, champions of their communities, they came to this Palace to press their case, and they ended up supporting a Government of spivs and millionaires who are turbocharging the very problems they complain about. Well, their tenure will soon be coming to an end,
If I lived in those working-class communities, I would be equally despondent at the alternative on offer. Today’s Labour party, as a Government in waiting, surely has the least ambition it has ever had in its 122-year history. A party that says hardly anything about how it wants to change things, that is terrified of suggesting that the wealthiest in our community should pay more tax, that is terrified of supporting the trade unions that founded it in their struggle for a living wage, that is committed to expanding dangerous and expensive nuclear energy and that is, most of all, committed to the United Kingdom remaining isolated from the European mainstream. What a choice.
Mr Deputy Speaker, you may wonder at the relevance of that for Scottish independence. Well, it is quite simple, because people in my constituency and elsewhere in Scotland look at this duopoly oscillating about a mean point of inequality while never seeking to fundamentally change it, and they ask themselves, “Is this the best that can be done?” People are increasingly saying, “No, we can do better than this. And we can do better than this if we take the power to ourselves and become an independent country.”
If those on the other side of this debate understand nothing else, understand this: the debate about contemporary Scottish independence is a debate not about identity but about political power. It is about having the agency to change the world around us and to play our part in a world that aims to be a better place. That is why we argue the case for Scottish independence, and we believe in changing the world with a new vision of how things could be, of a society in which the barometer of success is the wellbeing of the people rather than the profits of City corporations, where we have growth in our economy to afford human leisure rather than human exploitation and, most of all, where our natural resources are marshalled into a sustainable future for our country and the world. That is what we aspire to, yet if you listened to our detractors, you would think it was far from that.
I congratulate the shadow Secretary of State, the hon. Member for Edinburgh South (Ian Murray), on the public launch today of Project Fear 2.0. If we are to take him at his word, a Scottish Government on day one of independence would have five times the economic deficit problem that this Government currently have to deal with and our currency would, at the point of introduction, crash by 30%. Oh my God, who would want even to consider such a scenario? But of course these things are not facts and they are not evidence—they are conjecture and supposition. He makes his case, and in the flurry of the campaign rhetoric he makes it well, but that does not make it true.
Let me use the GERS figures as one example, on which the hon. Gentleman placed a lot of emphasis. He may be interested to know that the Institute for Fiscal Studies, no less—not a fan of independence—says that by next year the structural deficit in the Scottish economy will be the same, more or less, as the structural deficit in the UK economy as a whole. It is not a factor of five more—
Tommy Sheppard
I am sorry, but I am short on time and I am going to annoy Mr Deputy Speaker if I take interventions, so I will decline to give way.
As I was saying, we are not talking about a factor of five. Of course, the most important thing about the GERS figures is that they are not a statement of account of Scotland as an independent nation; they are a statement of what a regional economy looks like within the United Kingdom. Any sensible person would look at that structural deficit and those figures and take that as evidence against the Union, not in favour of it. It is because we can do so much better that we aspire to independence.
As others have remarked, it is unbelievable, is it not, that a country such as Scotland, which is blessed with enormous resources of renewable energy, a talented and skilled workforce and a thriving tourism, hospitality and cultural sector, which is leading the world in new technologies from biosciences to gaming, and which has our world-class academia—a country with all that going for it—can be described as a basket case when it comes to self-government and people suggest it cannot possibly afford it? Of course it can.
This debate is called “Scottish independence and Scottish economy” for a reason. It is because we know and understand that we will not get a majority of people in Scotland to vote to become a self-governing country if we cannot argue that that will make things materially better for them and their communities in the medium to long run. We know that that is the case; we have to connect those things together. I had a whole list of things I was going to go through that show how independence can make things better. I do not have time to mention them all, so I will select a few. These are the arguments and themes that are now being published in these Scottish Government documents that the motion refers to. I advise colleagues to take the time to read some of them. They are part of an ongoing debate that points out the consequences of independence for ordinary people and their livelihoods.
Let us take, for example, fair rights at work, which is apposite because today is the day when the TUC is petitioning and lobbying this Parliament. An independent Scottish Government will make sure that there is a living wage for people in their place of work; that this disgusting separation whereby young people can be exploited at extremely low wages is removed and people are paid that living wage from the point at which they enter the workforce; and that the trade union legislation is repealed and people have the right to organise. We know that we want to do that because we know that all the evidence shows that if the balance in the workplace changes and becomes fairer, that leads to a more prosperous and more equal economy. That is why we want to do it, but we cannot do it without the powers that come from independence.
Let us consider taxation policy. The Scottish Government do have the power at the margins to vary income tax, but no Government without any control whatsoever over the movement of labour or capital can possibly change the taxation system in any meaningful way. We want to see those with the broadest shoulders make their fair contribution. We want to see a much more progressive situation. We want to see business taxes that support small and medium-sized enterprises and help them to thrive, but at the same time it should be understood that the opportunity to make money comes with the obligation to put something back into the social infrastructure and communities that enabled someone to do so in the first place. This we cannot do without the powers of independence.
Energy has been talked about a lot. Why on earth is it that, in a country that is self-sufficient in renewable energy, people will not be able to afford to pay their electricity bills this winter? It is a scandal beyond recognition. We need to scrap Ofgem and break the link between electricity prices and Putin’s gas supply prices. We need to make sure that in a country capable of generating 100% renewable energy from the wind and water, the benefits go to the people who live there and not to the global corporations. This we cannot do without the powers of independence.
I could go on, but I will draw to a close. Those are the reasons why we ask people in Scotland to consider the alternatives. We do not need to have the duopoly of despair being offered in the United Kingdom. We can take matters into our own hands and create a new and better country.
My final point is this. Who gets to choose on this matter? That is the fundamental question and political principle that this House has to confront. In his opening remarks, the Secretary of State, like a broken record, made much of a campaign that happened nearly 10 years ago and a result that happened in 2014, when things were remarkably different from now. The 2014 referendum on Scottish independence might have settled the matter; people might have said, “That’s fine. We accept it and move on.” It was not us here who did not accept it, but the people of Scotland who put us here to prosecute this case. It is their right, and only their right, to reconsider that matter at a time of their choosing. That is why last year, 10 years after the day they did it the first time round, they elected a Scottish Parliament with more Members committed to independence than there were in 2011. That mandate has been disrespected and refused by this Government. That is why we are now arguing in the Supreme Court. It does not play well in Scotland because every time we deny the voice of the people, we only fuel their ambition to make it louder.
Several hon. Members rose—
Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Nigel Evans)
If my maths is correct, about five Members still want to speak. The winding-up speeches will begin no later than 20 to 7, so Members can do the maths on how many minutes they have. Anne McLaughlin, do you intend to speak?
Mr Deputy Speaker
In that case, four Members want to speak; I call Chris Stephens.
Chris Stephens (Glasgow South West) (SNP)
It is a pleasure to follow my hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh East (Tommy Sheppard); I will, of course, touch on similar themes in my contribution.
Saturday 29 October would have been the 100th birthday of my grandmother, who was an SNP voter and independence supporter. I am proud to be a third-generation SNP voter and to represent a constituency that had the second highest number of individual yes voters in Scotland, topped only by Dundee West. Let me assure the House that the competition will be on next time.
Chris Stephens
If West Dunbartonshire wants to rise to the challenge, we would more than welcome that.
It is important that this point is recognised: listening to some of the contributions today, we might think that not one constituency in Scotland had voted for Scottish independence, but of course many constituencies did vote for that proposition. What has been fascinating in this debate is that not one speaker arguing against independence or a referendum has told us what conditions they believe would apply for there to be a referendum. I find that deeply fascinating: they say that in their view there is not enough support, but will not tell us what would be required for there to be a referendum. Deeply fascinating indeed. I must say that a number of contributions have been strange. I thought that the hon. Member for Aberconwy (Robin Millar) had left the Chamber, but I can see that he is sitting behind the deputy governor general—I use that particular title as a term of endearment—the Under-Secretary of State for Scotland, the hon. Member for Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (John Lamont). The hon. Member for Aberconwy talked about the ships that are hosting Ukrainian refugees. I have been on one ship, and it had really good conditions. I can tell him that I have had zero complaints about the conditions on that ship, but every single week I get complaints about the conditions and the overcrowding of Home Office accommodation for asylum seekers. Why is that the case? It is because the Home Office has argued that it does not need to comply with Scottish housing standards, that it does not need to comply with local authority standards. It is quite curious that the hon. Member mentioned that example, when the reality is that it is the conditions that the Home Office applies that cause real deep resentment for those seeking sanctuary in this country.
I was also fascinated by the Secretary of State’s contribution about our Union dividend. What has been the largest growing area of the economy over the past 12 years? It is the number of food banks in this country. That is not a Union dividend. We need to reflect on the fact that far too many citizens across these islands are having to depend on food aid, including working people. We have just advertised for a larder project in Cardonald, and we know that many of the users will be working people, which is why we will be opening them in the evenings so that people can utilise their services. The number of food banks in this country is no Union dividend at all.
Let me explain why those of us who have been trying to prosecute the case for Scottish independence are still doing so. Days after the referendum, David Cameron stood up and talked about English votes for English laws and basically said that Scotland had had its fun. That was very much resented by a number of people. It was the nasty campaign, the negative campaign, and, yes, the fearful campaign against Scottish independence that ensured we would still be debating this issue. There was never a positive case put forward during that campaign by those who wished Scotland to remain in the United Kingdom.
I want to spend the minutes I have left to touch on the issue of workers’ rights, which my good and hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh East (Tommy Sheppard) addressed in his speech. It is a key part of the Scottish Government’s paper, which, curiously, no one has criticised. We really need to get away from this obsession that the current Government have of always being on the side of the bosses, and always being on the side of making sure that their view of insecure work should be the model going forward. I want to see an independent Scotland saying that there will be no zero-hour contracts in our country. I want to see trade unions have the ability to go on strike without fear of being taken to court on cheap charges. I want to see trade unions being given the right to use online and secure workplace balloting. If it was good enough for the Conservative party to use workplace voting and online voting to select a Prime Minister who crashed the economy then surely it is good enough for trade unions.
We need to change the world at work and to bring dignity and fairness to the workplace. Unfortunately, this place will never articulate a way of doing so, which is why I will continue to argue for Scottish independence and for votes for the Scottish National party.
Marion Fellows (Motherwell and Wishaw) (SNP)
I have sat here for most of the afternoon and listened carefully to all the speeches. I am going to do something slightly different, but I want to make it clear at the start that I am committed to Scottish independence. Anyone who has voted for me three times since 2015 knows that. I have always been returned to this place to represent the people of Motherwell and Wishaw, and I understand that not everyone in Motherwell and Wishaw wants independence, but I also understand that the Scottish Government have a mandate from the last Scottish election, and overall the SNP as a party has a mandate from Scotland to further the cause of independence. We all look forward very much to conducting a referendum next year.
The economic damage this Government have caused since the mini-Budget on 23 September is, as the motion says, truly regrettable. The pound has nosedived, mortgage rates have risen and there is rising inflation. I can remember hard, hard times—I remember Harold Wilson telling me that the pound in my pocket would not be worth any less on devaluation; I brought up a family during the ’80s—but I have never known a time like this.
I think that is partly due to my role as disability spokesperson for my party, because as part of my role I meet disability organisations regularly. I will use the example of one particular organisation that helps families with disabled children and children with long-term illnesses, the Family Fund. When I met the organisation earlier this week—or was it the end of last week? Time moves so strangely here—I was shocked, horrified and deeply moved by what I was listening to.
I am grateful to the Family Fund for the statistics I am using, which are taken from its report, “The Cost of Caring”, based on its research and published only on 7 October this year. Some 64% of parents with caring responsibilities spend between 35 and 100 hours a week caring for their children—only 50% of them are in work—so they are getting benefits.
Increasing household costs make those families’ lives more difficult: on top of pandemic lockdowns and shielding, families have to spend more on energy and the choices they must make are even starker than those of the general population. More than half of parents or carers report skipping or cutting the size of meals; four in five families raising a disabled child or young person are in debt, with debt levels rising for two in five families, and more than 40%,
“report they can’t afford to keep their accommodation warm—an increase of 13% since last December”.
On average, families raising a disabled child live on £17,000 a year and spend 60 hours a week caring for their disabled child, with one third of families caring for more than 100 hours a week.
Family Fund’s report highlights the now unsustainable strain on families raising disabled and seriously ill children and young people, as they try to cover sky-high costs on top of severely reduced incomes due to intense caring responsibilities, the three-times higher costs of looking after a disabled child and critical levels of debt. I could quote Family Fund’s chief executive, Cheryl Ward, and people might wonder what that has to do with independence, but we cannot afford to be tied to a system that treats the most vulnerable people in our society in this way. Members will note that one of the statistics I used was from last year—it was not even to do with the so-called mini-Budget.
The harrowing tales and statistics we have heard from the Family Fund are not isolated; other disability organisations I have met in recent months, such as the Disability Benefits Consortium and Muscular Dystrophy UK, have drawn attention to the deteriorating situation that many of the most vulnerable face in the UK. Across the board, these organisations are calling for benefits to be uprated in line with inflation—that will not even take them back to where they were—and additional, targeted support for those with disabilities, whose essential energy needs are much more extensive.
Recently on the BBC, Yvette Clements said that parents are having to consider putting their disabled children into care due to rising energy bills. Can anyone in this Chamber tell me that that is acceptable? Families of disabled children are facing crippling debt. Some might say, “What does that matter?” but I believe—as I know fellow SNP Members do—that a society can be measured by how it treats its most vulnerable. In the vision of chaos that the current iteration of the UK Government perpetuate, the most vulnerable are treated with contempt. Those with disabilities and caring responsibilities face uncertainty, deprivation and attacks on their human dignity.
I want to talk about a family with two young autistic boys who live in West Sussex. One of the boys has attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, while the other suffered brain damage at birth and is doubly incontinent. The family have to do frequent food shops tailored to the children’s specific sensory needs and allergies, which has resulted in their bills almost tripling. The mother of these poor boys originally trained as a special educational needs teacher, but she cannot work, as she is a full-time carer for one of her sons, and she testifies that the cost of living crisis has impacted on the family in a huge way. Families of disabled children face crippling debt just to provide the care needed for their children, who will otherwise suffer and see their conditions worsen.
In Scotland we seek to do things differently. We offer carers additional support through the carer’s allowance supplement, which increases their carer’s allowance by 13%—carer’s allowance has gone up by £3 in 10 years. We also have young carer grant. The Scottish Government are in the process of delivering the overarching changes needed to replace carer’s allowance with Scottish carer’s assistance, which will provide greater support, loosening the needlessly rigid criteria that carers must meet and increasing support in the areas of social care, employability and education.
I also note that child winter payments started in Scotland today, and they are of course administered by Social Security Scotland, which aims to deliver social security with dignity, fairness and respect at its core. At present, less than 15% of such social security benefits are devolved to Scotland, and our ability to create a society built on dignity, fairness and respect is severely impacted by a Westminster system built on cronyism, chaos and inequality.
Like my party and lots of people in Scotland, I feel that an independent Scotland is the only way we can take control of our future and create a more equal society for all, upholding the rights of our most vulnerable citizens. In each of the many iterations of the current Government—and there have been quite a number—those with the least have suffered the most as a result of policy choices. Following years of austerity, which have brought public services to their knees, caused 300,000 excess deaths and run the NHS into the ground, we are now hearing calls for further austerity. On top of the real-terms cuts to wages and benefits, and with inflation at a 40-year high, this sustained attack on society’s most vulnerable does not appear to have an end goal in sight.
My right hon. Friend the Member for Skye, Badenoch and Strathspey—[Hon. Members: “Ross, Skye and Lochaber.”] I am so sorry; I have got carried away with the emotion of what I am saying. My right hon. Friend the Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Ian Blackford) asked the Prime Minister today to guarantee uprating benefits in line with inflation, but we did not get an answer. The families that I am talking about are depending on that to protect their children.
I now feel that an independent Scotland is a necessity. It is not just something we think we would like; it is absolutely necessary to protect Scottish citizens from even more devastating policies from the Tory Government. I add my voice to the calls on this Government immediately to reinstate the bankers’ bonus cap, increase benefits in line with inflation, and protect the pensions triple lock. Scotland cannot afford to be part of the failing UK state. We must be independent for economic stability and for the best future for all our citizens born in Scotland or not, and—I add this for the benefit of my granddaughters and my grandson—for those yet to be born.
Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)
Several very interesting things have been said today. I have never taken a single vote for the SNP in Dundee East for granted. However, I heard the hon. Member for Edinburgh West (Christine Jardine)—she is no longer in her place—talk about Orkney and Shetland, and if I lived on one of those island groups, I would be very cross indeed that the Liberal Democrats took them so much for granted and considered them so much of a personal fiefdom.
We had the Secretary of State for Scotland talk about funding delivered by the UK Government. Indeed, the hon. Member for Banff and Buchan (David Duguid) spoke about several other UK policy decisions and read out their cost. I thought that was interesting because it was almost like it was discretionary largesse from Whitehall, almost ignoring the fact that Scottish individuals and businesses pay tax. It is almost as if they do not realise that almost every penny is borrowed and that Scottish taxpayers contribute their full fair share to the debt repayment costs. I find that extraordinary.
We have heard other talk during the day about the debt Scotland might have. The Scottish Government cannot borrow. They have no debt. All the debt comes from the UK. The UK borrows all the money, no matter where it is spent. When there is a £500 million overspend on a single tube station, we pay our share of that debt. There is no Union dividend.
We then heard the Secretary of State make some extraordinarily disparaging remarks about education. Scotland has the highest proportion of people with a tertiary education—the best educated country in Europe. Instead of talking it down, why do we not celebrate the pupils and the students, the teachers and the lecturers, and the schools, colleges and universities? He then went on—he must have been having a really bad day—to talk about crime. We have the lowest crime—[Interruption.] Ah, he has come in. Welcome, Governor-General; take your seat. Scotland has the lowest crime rate since 1974. It was reported in the last week that barely 5% of reported crimes in England even have somebody charged. To talk down the criminal justice system in Scotland while allowing the utter failure of the criminal justice system in England to go by the book is absolutely disgraceful.
We then had the bizarre sight of the Better Together parties—the Tory-Labour coalition party—pretending to dislike each other, but when I see Labour’s immigration mugs and the “Make Brexit Work” slogan, all I see is a red Tory. Whether they are red Tories or blue Tories, it does not matter. They are exactly the same.
We then had—I might not even get to my speech proper, Madam Deputy Speaker—some straw men thrown up about how much Scotland’s foreign currency reserve would have to be when we become independent. I checked and the UK’s foreign currency reserve is 6.4% of GDP, Ireland’s is 2.7% and Finland’s is 7%. To be fair, Denmark’s is higher at about 20%, but how can it be that a modern advanced economy with huge natural resources and a balance of trade surplus, such as Scotland, would somehow uniquely be expected to hold 50%, 60%, 70% or 80% of GDP in foreign currencies?
Stewart Hosie
I think my right hon. Friend spoke enough earlier on, but of course I will give way.
Ian Blackford
I am very grateful to my right hon. Friend—I will see him later. He is making a powerful speech. It is worth pointing out to the House that the UK has a current account deficit of more than 8% of GDP. If there is a country that cannot pay its way, it is the UK.
Stewart Hosie
That is absolutely true. There will come a time, when we have the referendum next year, to enter into proper, calmer and sensible debates about the minutiae and the technical detail regarding all that—long may that continue.
Basically, what we saw today was a rerun of Project Fear: Project Fear 2. I was struck by the comments of the hon. Member for Chesterfield (Mr Perkins), who is also no longer in his place. At one point, he genuinely seemed to suggest that the determination as to whether Scotland should have a referendum should be based on opinion polls rather than real votes. I will take seven, eight, nine or 10 mandates in a row over an opinion poll any day of the week.
Project Fear 2 took me back to the 2014 independence referendum. The yes campaign was characterised by one thing: the absolute determination to answer every question and provide as much information as possible to the people of Scotland. We did that in the face of the constant refrain from Unionism that there was not enough information. Even when detailed answers to every question were tripping off people’s lips, we were still asked for more.
We tried to ensure that the answers we gave about the future shape of the Scottish state and policy for an independent Scotland were, to the best of our ability, in the best interests of the people of Scotland and those in the rest of the UK. Nowhere was that clearer than in our proposals for what was then a formal shared currency and our determination to service a negotiated share of the UK’s national debt. Both those plans were designed to protect sterling and stop the rest of the UK falling victim to a technical default on its debt obligations. To provide that certainty, clarity and detail, we drew, if not exclusively, certainly heavily, on the 670-page “Scotland’s Future” White Paper.
We need to recognise the way in which Unionism behaved and campaign differently and smarter this time. The first thing to recognise is that no matter how detailed and precise our answers were, Unionism continued and will continue to ask the same questions over and over again to give the impression that there are no answers. It was false then and it is false now.
Secondly, we need to recognise that Unionism acted and continues to act irrationally. Next time, next year, whatever policy decisions are finally determined to be best for Scotland, they must be not only technically robust, but politically bomb-proof, so that no indyref2 policy area can ever be held hostage by a Westminster veto.
Thirdly, while we must of course answer every single question that the public put to us, we should make our fundamental case on principle, not detail. That is why the first three papers published by the Scottish Government are first class. A mix of democratic principle and a vivid picture of what Scotland could be is hopeful, upbeat and takes yes campaigners away from the miserable drudge of Unionist whataboutery—we have seen it in spades today—that so characterised the 2014 referendum campaign.
I have one final thought at this point. We know how successful Scotland can be. Is it not time that Unionism was finally challenged? Beyond Brexit, is this really as good as it gets? The first thing we have to do is deliver Scottish independence, and the second, and in many ways more important, is to describe the kind of Scotland we seek. We have laid out the mechanism by which we will deliver it, we have gone to the Supreme Court to test the legality of the referendum and we have the wonderful fall-back position that the next Westminster election will be a de facto referendum, meaning that the Scottish people’s voice will be heard one way or another.
The answer to the second question—what sort of Scotland will we deliver?—is implicit in the motion. Our critique of the botched experimental, Tufton Street economics that crashed the economy in the mini-Budget is stark, and our demands for action to help those most in need are clear, but let me end by answering the question of what sort of Scotland we seek in a slightly more succinct way. The Scotland we will deliver will be the one that the people of Scotland want and choose, because it is with independence and only with independence that Scotland will always get the Government and the policies it votes for.
Richard Thomson (Gordon) (SNP)
I start out in this debate on Scottish independence and the Scottish economy from the fundamental and irreducible point of principle that the best people to govern Scotland are those who have chosen to make their lives there.
I first started taking an interest in politics growing up in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and that was quite a heady political time. It was before there was a Scottish Parliament of any kind. We were seeing the deindustrialisation process at the end of the Thatcherite economic experiment and the ramifications of the poll tax. It was the end of the cold war and the collapse of the iron curtain, with historic realignments as old nations emerged from the stifling power politics of the cold war. Of course, closer to home we had a debate about Scottish self-governance—not just about whether there should be a Scottish Parliament, but about how much power that Parliament should have and, indeed, whether it should be an independent Parliament.
In my particular journey to supporting independence for Scotland, I remember vividly a debate that took place in early 1992 in the Usher Hall in Edinburgh, where the four leaders of the Scottish parties at that time clashed with each other in a major public debate sponsored by The Scotsman newspaper. In the aftermath of that clash of visions, Scotland returned 12 Conservative MPs in the general election later that year, in contrast to the 60 non-Conservative MPs, yet still we had a Conservative Government running us with a Secretary of State and his team of Ministers coming under parliamentary scrutiny once every four weeks for half an hour ahead of Prime Minister’s Question Time, which seemed to me to be thoroughly unsatisfactory. Looking back to those times, I have a pet theory that if only we could get every single adult Scot of voting age to come down here, sit in the Public Gallery and watch Scottish questions followed by Prime Minister’s Question Time, we would not be having another referendum with a 55% vote to stay in the UK, but a near unanimous vote to become independent. That formative set of experiences and references led me to conclude, as Jim Sillars subsequently described it, that Scottish independence is simply the constitutional settlement that is superior to all others. I have been an enthusiastic proponent of that point of view ever since, and I am happy to debate it with all comers. Indeed, I am sorry that the hon. Member for Edinburgh West (Christine Jardine) is no longer in her seat, as I have happy memories of debating against her in Victoria Hall in Ellon ahead of the 2014 referendum, before either of us were elected. I am not so sure that the hon. Lady has quite such happy memories of the debate that night as I do, but it was nevertheless a robust act of civic political engagement, which was all to the good.
The constitution is not the only political issue that has animated me over that time. I have also been striving for fairness in our economy, for social justice and equality in our society, and to improve and invest in our infrastructure. I have of course been seized of the urgent need to tackle climate change, and embrace the considerable renewable opportunities that we have in Scotland. Unlike others of different political stamps, for me it is impossible to ignore the clear link between the condition of Scotland and its constitution, and how decisions are taken, by whom, and off the back of what mandate. I do not believe it is possible to separate the need to improve the condition of Scotland from the reality that that constitutional status acts as a huge impediment to doing so. No matter how good an idea, or what people vote to endorse in elections, unless it happens to be compatible with prevailing political ideas at Westminster, and the parameters that sets for policy and also budgetary frameworks, it simply does not happen.
That is not to say that good things have not happened in Scotland since devolution. Since 1999, Scotland has been governed by a Lib-Lab coalition, then by an SNP minority and an SNP majority, and it is currently governed by a coalition between the SNP and the Greens. Each Government have taken and are taking Scotland forward in their way, and I have no hesitation in saying that whatever their stamp, each of those Governments helped to put Scotland into a better condition at the end of their period in government than it was in when they took office, despite the lack of tax, borrowing and welfare powers, which restricted the ability of Governments of all kinds to act as they might have wished over that time.
There is a rather partisan argument that gets made, but it is a bit too clever-clever for my liking. It usually comes from elements in the Labour party, and it states that devolution and independence are different constitutional processes, with no common ground possible between the two. I do not think the people of Scotland have ever seen it in such stark terms, because the immediate point of common ground that I have with anyone who wants devolution, is that every power they wish to be exercised from a Scottish Parliament, I want as well. The difference is that I do not believe that devolution can ever satisfactorily address how to resolve the conflict that inevitably arises whenever the choices and interests of people in Scotland do not coincide with choices made elsewhere in the UK, or the priorities that are divined from that by the UK Government of the day.
In his opening remarks the Secretary of State said that we had a referendum in 2014, and indeed we did. I say to him as gently as I can, however, that things have moved on quite a bit since then. I remember speaking in another debate during the 2014 referendum, not in Ellon but as part of a panel for a debate in Peterhead in the constituency of the hon. Member for Banff and Buchan (David Duguid). It was in no less a place than the ballroom of the Palace Hotel, and it was extremely busy—again, I have very happy memories of that night, perhaps happier than those on the no side. I was confronted in my summing up by a familiar argument that an independent Scotland would somehow find itself outside the European Union. It was all part of a trope—by that stage it was pretty familiar—of fears and smears, and that somehow an independent Scotland would find itself on the outside, isolated from all that was good and at the mercy of all that was bad.
It was getting late in the evening, so I decided to dispatch that argument as quickly, as cleanly and as humanely as I could by saying that the only way in which we would be in danger of being outside the European Union in the near future was if people voted no to independence and afterwards the Boris and Nigel show was allowed to take over. Now, I freely admit that, when I said that, I thought that I was using a little exaggeration to make the point as best I could—it was an argument that did not seem to have any basis in political reality. Little could I have imagined that, just over two years later, it had turned into the ghoulish, nightmarish reality.
The fact is, in 2014, the no campaign made a number of bold pledges about how being in the UK was a guarantee of economic stability, that we would be progressing to something as close to federalism as possible over that time and that, of course—this is the real pearler—the only way to guarantee our EU membership was through a no vote, when in fact that was what deprived us of it. Practically every single rhetorical plague of locusts or horsemen of the apocalypse prophesised in that campaign as a result of voting yes has come to pass as part of Brexit Britain, so much so that the entire Better Together prospectus to persuade Scots to vote no has been put through the shredder. It is hardly surprising that support for independence has moved in the direction that it has since then.
The hon. Member for Edinburgh South (Ian Murray) could not have been clearer about where he stands. The Labour party now supports Brexit, and it tells us that it will not reverse it. While he is content to excoriate the record of the Conservatives in office, and rightly so, it seems that he would rather persevere with a political system, which over the course of the last century has seen the Conservatives in power for two years out of every three—a party rejected continually by Scotland at the ballot box—simply for the distant prize that he and his party might hold power for one year in every three. That might be good enough for him, but it is certainly not good enough for me—and increasingly, it is not good enough for people in Scotland.
Why independence? Why not try to reform from within? Labour has made it clear that it has no interest in meaningful reform of our decision making process. It will keep the House of Lords and it wants to keep the voting system, because, as I said, having that untrammelled power one year in every three seems to make everything else worth while.
The Lib Dems talk about moving nearer to federalism. Of course, they have spoken about that since the days of William Ewart Gladstone—[Interruption.] I hear the hon. Member for Edinburgh West say, “Why don’t we do it?” Quite simply, there is no coherent, credible plan for it. Perhaps she could intervene and tell me how the Lib Dems plan to do it. Will there be an English Parliament? Will it be like “Strictly Come Dancing”? BBC regions? How will they do it?
Christine Jardine
Actually, the Campbell commission came up with a report on exactly how it could be done and, to give the Labour party credit, Gordon Brown has now issued his proposals, and Scotland’s Futures is working together. The hon. Member asked how we would do it. We would have assemblies for the other parts of the United Kingdom. The metropolitan Mayors are moving towards a more representative approach. It can be done and, if we had the SNP’s support, perhaps we could do it.
Richard Thomson
That is the trouble—there is no support for it. I am willing to believe that the hon. Lady has not made a single speech or argument or delivered a single leaflet about that in any of the regions in England that she plans to create. I suspect that, were I to go to the south-east, the south-west or any region of England, it would come as an enormous surprise to people to find out that that is being planned.
The Lib Dems were in coalition Government with the Conservatives from 2010. They had a referendum that was supposed to be on proportional representation, but they could not even get a form of proportional representation on to the ballot paper, and now we are being invited to believe that, somehow, just because Gordon Brown says so, we will be able to rewire the entirety of the British constitution in a way that will satisfy aspirations. I do not believe that. It is just another dead end which Scots would be well advised to avoid.
I return to my central point. The best people to run Scotland and to decide how Scotland should be run are those who have chosen to make their lives there. As the UK post-Brexit turns in upon itself and away from its closest neighbours and the alliances that have served it so well since it joined the European Union, Scotland has a choice: to continue to attach itself to that British Brexit decline, or to take its place on the world stage as an independent country with Governments we elect who are limited only by the constraints of our own resources, the limits of our own imaginations, the limits of our own democratic choices, and by constraints set by nowhere else.
Kirsten Oswald (East Renfrewshire) (SNP)
I congratulate everybody who has contributed to the debate. It has been an outstanding example of the range of different and very pressing arguments for why Scotland needs to be an independent country. The reality is that no country in history has been better prepared to transition to independence than Scotland currently is. Scotland has a dynamic modern economy, an abundance of natural and human capital, and a globally recognised international brand.
In 2014, like a number of my colleagues on the SNP Benches, I joined the SNP. We were told at that point that only with a no vote would Scots get safer, faster, better change. The events of the last eight years—even the events of the last eight weeks, actually—have shown that to be utter fiction. The Union is absolutely not the risk-free option that was promised, as my right hon. Friend the Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Ian Blackford) rightly pointed out. It has been stark, but it is surprising what we have not heard. What we have not heard at all today is any case whatever for the Union, and that is telling.
Let me turn to the motion and the most recent “Building a New Scotland” paper. Scotland’s economy is diverse; it has many strengths. We have the best educated population in Europe, with the highest proportion of people aged between 25 and 65 with tertiary level education, and our Government made the political choice to provide free university tuition. In 2020, almost 100% of Scotland’s electricity demand was generated by renewables and Scotland has 25% of Europe’s offshore wind and tidal potential, meaning that Scotland can and will become the renewable powerhouse of Europe. My hon. Friend the Member for Kilmarnock and Loudoun (Alan Brown) correctly noted the positive position of Norway, with its sovereign wealth fund to cushion its population. What a contrast to the approach of the UK Government! We also have a food and drink sector that is renowned worldwide, with Scotch whisky accounting for a fifth of all UK food and drink exports. As my hon. Friend the Member for Perth and North Perthshire (Pete Wishart) said, with such an abundance of resources and talent no one can seriously argue that Scotland could not thrive as an independent country. I was delighted that even the shadow Secretary of State, the hon. Member for Edinburgh South (Ian Murray) seemed to accept that fact, as did, I think, the hon. Member for Banff and Buchan (David Duguid).
The benefits of self-government have been evident since the reopening of the Scottish Parliament in 1999. The devolution of powers to Scotland has changed Scotland for the better. Just imagine what we could do with the powers of independence. Scottish Governments of different political affiliations have implemented policies that have led to a fairer, more equal Scotland. In fact, often they are mitigating the damaging policies of the UK Government. A good example of that is the Scottish child payment, which has been welcomed by anti-poverty campaigners as a game changer. I note that the Secretary of State for Scotland was signally unable or unwilling to entertain any discussion on his Government’s failure to make that kind of positive choice. The Scottish child payment will rise to £25 a week per eligible child this month. It is at the forefront of Scotland’s fight against child poverty. This is action that our Government are taking within the powers they have. Just imagine what more could be done. Recent analysis shows that even now Scotland has the lowest child poverty rate of any part of the UK. It is still too high, but it demonstrates that interventions by Governments who are willing to make them can drive down child poverty rates.
In Scotland, eligible children benefit from 1,140 hours of free high-quality early learning and childcare. That saves families around £4,000 a year and allows parents, in particular mothers, to return to the workplace if they so choose. The Scottish Government’s commitment to fair work has also seen drastic changes in workplace practices in Scotland, a significant contrast to the UK Government’s gig economy approach set out very eloquently by my hon. Friend the Member for Paisley and Renfrewshire North (Gavin Newlands). Recent figures show that 91% of employees in Scotland receive the real living wage; again, that is the highest proportion of any UK nation. The gender pay gap in Scotland is 3.7% between male and female workers, which is better than the 8.3% gap across the rest of the UK. My hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh North and Leith (Deidre Brock) spoke about the Scottish Government’s approach to feminist foreign policy.
The Scottish Government have also committed to improving the lives of LGBT people and will implement a total ban on conversion therapy this parliamentary term, whereas, this week, the UK Government delayed a ban, with the new Minister for Women and Equalities reported as wanting to review her predecessor’s work. She was the predecessor very recently—it is quite hard to keep up with the musical ministerial chairs. That delay comes despite the UK Government having promised a conversion therapy ban since the Prime Minister’s predecessor’s predecessor’s predecessor was in office, but that was only a few weeks ago.
While the Scottish Government works hard to continue to deliver that kind of real, tangible progress for all people in Scotland, the same cannot be said of this UK Government. Perhaps the most obvious example of Westminster failing Scotland is Brexit. Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU, but we have been dragged out against our will. It is estimated that that will result in Scotland’s GDP being 4% lower by 2030 than it would have been if we had remained in the EU. That is the equivalent of £3.2 billion of revenue lost every single year. Brexit not only damages our economic prosperity, but weakens our society and communities. We have seen fewer EU students coming to study in Scotland. EU students have and would have contributed not just economically, but culturally and socially.
Scotland is the only part of the UK that is forecast to experience population decline in the next 30 years, so we need inward migration to grow our economy and support our public services. We need independence to achieve that, because despite Scotland’s needs—without even getting into the horrific narrative coming from UK Government members about invasions—the UK Government continue to pursue a shamefully hostile policy towards immigration. Unfortunately, the Labour party, to its shame, apes that anti-immigrant rhetoric. We need independence to deliver an immigration system that works for Scotland and that recognises the immense net contribution that immigrants have made, and will continue to make, to our country.
A number of Members have pointed out that Scotland has not voted for a Tory Government since 1955, but we still have to live with the damaging policies of Tory Governments. Most recently, there was the mini-Budget, when they crashed the economy with their reckless, unfunded tax cuts. As my right hon. Friend the Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber described, the pantomime—the circus—of being under Westminster control at the moment is so costly to households in Scotland, particularly to those who can least afford to have that financial wrecking ball inflicted on them.
The consequences of the mini-Budget will be with us for some time. We can think of the spike in interest rates and its impact on mortgage payments, with many of the families impacted already struggling. The Chancellor suggested that there will need to be tax rises at the Budget later this year. Taxes are necessary for public services, of course, but those rumoured tax rises will be used to plug a self-inflicted black hole caused by the Government’s mini-Budget disaster.
The economic downturn caused by Brexit and compounded by the mini-Budget has exacerbated the cost of living crisis. It is really callous, even by the Conservatives’ standards, that they flirt with scrapping the triple lock and refuse to commit to uprating benefits in line with inflation. As my hon. Friend the Member for Aberdeen North (Kirsty Blackman) was absolutely right to point out, the shameful nonsense coming from Conservative Members suggesting that people are somehow better off defies belief. People can see with their own eyes the situation that they in, and they will find that absolutely astonishing.
The thing is, Scotland has a lot going for it. We have a vibrant economy. We have a highly educated, talented population. We have natural resources that other countries are envious of, but we are locked in this trickle-down, doing-people-down UK economic model, which fails to match the economic levels of prosperity and social cohesion that our neighbours of similarly sized independent countries have.
With independence, we can have the Governments that we vote for. We can choose our future. We can choose our priorities. It will not always be easy and it will not happen overnight. It will take hard work, but no country in history has ever been in a better position to become independent.
There are many challenges facing western countries at the moment, including the climate crisis, the war in Ukraine and population movements, but ultimately the question for people in Scotland—and it is a question for them, not for Members in this place—is who they want. Who do they trust to lead the response to the challenges of the situation? Who do they trust to deliver for the people who live in Scotland: Westminster Governments we do not vote for, or a Government in Scotland we do vote for, equipped with the full powers of an independent state?
None of this is news to people in Scotland. They are watching, they see the choices before them, and it is time.
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Scotland (John Lamont)
It is a pleasure to respond to this debate in my first appearance at the Dispatch Box as a Scotland Office Minister. I am proud to be wearing the “Back British Farming” wheat pin badge tonight; today is Back British Farming Day, and there has never been a better time to show the importance of Scottish and British food producers in our country.
I thank all right hon. and hon. Members who have spoken. I will address in detail as many of their points as I can, but first let us talk about the motion before the House.
It is frankly disappointing that SNP Members selected this subject for debate when there are so many other pressing matters that the people of Scotland view as a priority. SNP Members could have used their time to raise matters of importance to my constituents in the Scottish Borders and their own constituents across Scotland, such as the cost of living, health or education. [Interruption.] SNP Members can shout all they want, but I know that those are the issues and priorities that the Scottish people want us to talk about, instead of obsessing about referendums.
SNP Members could have used the time to encourage their friends in the Scottish Government to set aside their usual approach and instead work together more effectively and constructively with the UK Government; Conservative Members would have very much welcomed that. The SNP could have acknowledged the huge benefits that being part of the United Kingdom brings to the people of Scotland, such as the Union dividend, which means that remaining a part of the UK is worth around £2,000 a year to every person in Scotland. Instead, throughout the debate, SNP Members have focused solely on the issue of another divisive referendum. The SNP Government must get back to the day job and stop obsessing about another referendum.
Many hon. Members today have highlighted the challenges that we face. They are right to have done so. Like the rest of the world, we are grappling with the economic aftermath of covid-19, compounded by the war in Europe, but more division and disruption is not the answer. Now is not the time to discuss splitting up the country, when we should be focusing on pulling together. Now is the time for unity, not division.
John Lamont
SNP Members are trying to intervene, but they have had six hours to talk about the issues that really concern people in Scotland. I will make some progress, and then I may take some interventions if time permits.
When he took office, the Prime Minister set out clearly that he wants to bring people back together and unite the country. Meanwhile, the SNP’s priority is division, division, division. Another divisive referendum is the wrong priority at the worst possible time. It is a distraction from the very real challenges that people across Scotland and the United Kingdom face. With that in mind, I turn to points made by hon. Members today.
The SNP Westminster leader, the right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Ian Blackford), got in a bit of a muddle yet again, frankly, over what currency an independent Scotland would use. The SNP’s currency proposals lack any form of credibility. In the same breath, the SNP proposes establishing a Scottish pound and committing to rejoin the European Union. Given that the EU clearly states that adopting the euro is a core requirement for membership, I struggle to find any credibility in that. I suggest that the SNP’s proposals to continue using the pound are a subtle admission that the economic benefits of remaining part of the UK are strong.
We also heard from the hon. Member for Edinburgh South (Ian Murray), whom I join in paying respects to the hon. Member for Glenrothes (Peter Grant) on the passing of his father. The hon. Member for Edinburgh South argued that the best way to protect the Union was to elect a Labour Government. I would suggest that the best way to ensure that Scotland remains at the heart of the Union is to elect more Scottish Conservative MPs in Scotland and to secure the re-election of this Conservative Prime Minister here at Westminster, thereby stopping any grubby deals that the SNP may do with other Opposition parties.
My hon. Friend the Member for Banff and Buchan (David Duguid), to whom I pay tribute for his work in the Scotland Office, rightly highlighted some of the important interventions that this Government have made to support Scotland. The hon. Member for Perth and North Perthshire (Pete Wishart) encouraged much audience participation in his speech—it was a bit like an early pantomime performance—but failed to produce any answers to fill the gaping holes in the SNP’s argument for another independence referendum.
My hon. Friend the Member for Aberconwy (Robin Millar) did a tremendous job of demolishing the nationalist argument for independence, as did the hon. Member for Chesterfield (Mr Perkins), who rightly identified how bad SNP Members are at losing referendums, in that they constantly demand more and more opportunities until they get the result that they want. Similarly, the hon. Member for Edinburgh West (Christine Jardine) made it clear that the SNP does not speak for the majority of Scots on the question of independence.
We heard from a catalogue of SNP and Alba Members: the hon. Members for Paisley and Renfrewshire North (Gavin Newlands), for West Dunbartonshire (Martin Docherty-Hughes), for East Dunbartonshire (Amy Callaghan), for Edinburgh North and Leith (Deidre Brock), for East Lothian (Kenny MacAskill), for Midlothian (Owen Thompson) and for Inverclyde (Ronnie Cowan), as well as many others who became increasingly excited about the prospect of another independence referendum but failed to provide any clear answers, any credible solutions or any indication of what an independent Scotland would look like.
Unfortunately time prevents me from referring to all the points that were raised in the debate, but I will happily take some interventions.
Alan Brown
Earlier, we heard about the benefits to the Union of the levelling-up fund. We keep being told that this is the most successful political Union ever, but if it is so good, why does the UK have the highest levels of inequality in the developed world apart from the United States and the worst pension levels relative to the working wage in western Europe—and why do we need a levelling-up fund if the Union is so successful?
John Lamont
My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Scotland set out very clearly the benefits of Scotland’s remaining part of the United Kingdom. I strongly reject the hon. Gentleman’s assertions about poverty in this country: we are a compassionate Government, working very hard to support the most vulnerable people in our society, whether they are in Scotland or in the rest of the UK.
Let me end by again thanking Members for their contributions, and making a few closing remarks. Scotland voted decisively in 2014 to remain part of the United Kingdom, and the SNP must respect the decision of the people of Scotland. We must now focus on key priorities, and particularly on dealing with the cost of living and tackling the economic challenges that we face. Time and again, in poll after poll, the people of Scotland tell SNP Members, and tell Nicola Sturgeon, that another referendum is not their priority.
John Lamont
If the hon. Member can tell me why we should be having a referendum now rather than dealing with the cost of living crisis, the failing education system in Scotland, the NHS backlog in Scotland and the lack of funding for local authorities, I will happily take an intervention from him.
David Linden
If the Minister’s party can change party leaders in seven weeks, why cannot the people of Scotland revisit this question more than seven years later?
John Lamont
I am grateful for that intervention. I clearly remember taking part in the 2014 referendum, when we were promised by those in the yes campaign that it would be a once-in-a-generation opportunity—
Owen Thompson claimed to move the closure (Standing Order No. 36).
Question put forthwith, That the Question be now put.
Question agreed to.
Main Question accordingly put.
Ian Blackford (Ross, Skye and Lochaber) (SNP)
On a point of order, Madam Deputy Speaker. I am delighted that the House has voted on a motion
“that Scotland cannot afford to be part of the failing state of the UK and must be independent for economic stability”.
This indeed is a historic moment. This House has voted in favour of a motion on Scottish independence—this is the first time that that has happened—with a clear majority of those who were elected from Scottish constituencies voting for that proposition. Of course, that follows on the back of the mandate that the Scottish Parliament has and that the Scottish Government have for delivering an independence referendum. I wonder what assistance your office can give to make sure that the UK Government now assist the Scottish Government in delivering on that mandate that we have and the support of this House for Scotland becoming an independent country.
Madam Deputy Speaker (Dame Eleanor Laing)
I thank the right hon. Gentleman for his point of order. I was doing the arithmetic and I had some doubts as to whether the House was in fact quorate, as I would expect there to have to be 40 votes. But I must clarify that although the Tellers read out that the Ayes were 38, in order to calculate the quorum I have to add in four Tellers and myself, because I am here. Therefore, the House is quorate—only just, but the House is quorate. So I appreciate the point of order that the right hon. Gentleman makes. It is not for me to say anything at all about what the Government might or might not do, but I am quite sure that those on the Treasury Bench will have heard the point he made, and indeed the past six hours of debate, and he will have the opportunity to pursue the matter in the usual way.
Mr Alistair Carmichael (Orkney and Shetland) (LD)
On a point of order, Madam Deputy Speaker. Have you received any indication from the Home Secretary that she intends to make a further statement to the House about the detention centre at Manston? You will have been aware that on Monday, the Home Secretary said:
“What I have refused to do is to prematurely release”—
the split infinitive is hers, not mine—
“thousands of people into local communities without having anywhere for them to stay.”—[Official Report, 31 October 2022; Vol. 721, c. 639.]
It is reported today that last night exactly that happened. A bus full of detainees was taken from Manston to Victoria station, where they were left abandoned; apparently, one was left to sleep rough overnight. That surely contradicts what the Home Secretary told the House. She has something to answer for. It would be useful for the House to know whether she intends to come here and explain herself or whether, yet again, she has to be brought here.
Madam Deputy Speaker
I thank the right hon. Gentleman for his point of order. As he will know, the Chair has no responsibility, which is fortunate, for what Ministers say at the Dispatch Box or indeed for what any Member says in the Chamber. [Interruption.] I would hope that those currently at the Dispatch Box would have the decency not to speak when I am answering a point of order.
The right hon. Gentleman has made his point, which would be better made to Ministers than as a point to the Chair. At business questions tomorrow, he will have an opportunity. If he seeks to bring any Minister to the House to answer a question, he knows the formalities, such as an urgent question, that he can use.
Daisy Cooper (St Albans) (LD)
On a point of order, Madam Deputy Speaker. On 13 May, I sent a letter to the former Secretary of State for Health and Social Care about the investigation of allegations of sexual abuse in the NHS. Given the gravity of the issues, I have since chased for a reply to that letter by email on eight occasions, and I have raised it at business questions.
Later, I tabled a written parliamentary question asking a Minister to respond. The Minister said incorrectly that he had replied to the letter, when he had in fact replied to a different letter. I believe that that was a genuine mistake, but it is a mistake none the less: the answer to my written question is factually incorrect. More to the point, I have yet to receive an answer to the letter I sent on 13 May—five and a half months ago—on behalf of a constituent who raised serious allegations about sexual abuse in the NHS.
Could you please advise me, Madam Deputy Speaker, on how I may ask the Minister to correct the answer to my written parliamentary question 66030, and how I might finally secure a response from the Department of Health and Social Care to my letter?
Madam Deputy Speaker
I thank the hon. Lady for having given me notice of this point of order. She describes the response that she received as having been a genuine mistake. Although the contents of answers to parliamentary questions are not a matter for the Chair, of course, I remind the House that the Government’s own ministerial code requires Ministers to correct any inadvertent errors in answers to parliamentary questions at the earliest opportunity. If an error has been made in this instance, I am sure that the Government will seek to correct it as quickly as possible. As far as the continuing delayed response to her constituent’s correspondence is concerned, she may, as I said to the right hon. Member for Orkney and Shetland (Mr Carmichael), wish to raise the matter at business questions tomorrow.
Having just referred to the fact that it is important that matters are clarified if an inadvertent mistake has been made by a Minister, the same of course goes for the Chair. I should draw to the attention of the House that, earlier today, Mr Speaker made reference to the Government being a shareholder in Royal Mail. Mr Speaker has asked me on his behalf to make it clear that he understands that in fact the Government are no longer a shareholder in Royal Mail. Bearing in mind the importance that Mr Speaker always stresses about Members correcting the record if an inadvertent mistake has been made, he wishes to lead by example and make it clear that he wishes to correct the inadvertent error that he made earlier today. I am sure the whole House will appreciate that.