Scottish Independence and the Scottish Economy

Kirsten Oswald Excerpts

Wednesday 2nd November 2022 Commons Chamber

[Ian Blackford]

My hon. Friend is quite correct that every local authority area in Scotland voted to remain. Not only did people across Scotland vote to remain, but that demand to stay in Europe has increased over the past few years. In fact, recent polling shows as many as 72% of Scots wish to remain in Europe. I say to those watching in our own country that there is a clear way to achieve this. If Scotland has its right to determine its own future, and if our Parliament, which has an independence majority, can enact the referendum that our people voted for, then Scotland’s journey to independence and back into the European union will be complete.

[Kirsten Oswald (East Renfrewshire) (SNP)]

I am grateful to my right hon. Friend for giving way—[Interruption.]

[Ian Blackford]

On a point of order, Mr Speaker. I have just been called a liar.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Perkins]

Further to that point of order, Mr Speaker. I certainly withdraw any implication that the right hon. Gentleman is a liar. I did not say he was a liar, but I did say that what he said was untrue. I withdraw that out of respect to you, Mr Speaker.

[Kirsten Oswald]

rose—

[Mr Speaker]

I call Ian Blackford. We are moving on. We have dealt with it.

--- Later in debate ---

[Kirsten Oswald]

I am grateful to my right hon. Friend for giving way. Does he not think that people at home will be looking askance at Labour Members? First, they were apologists for the chaos that the Conservatives have inflicted on Scotland’s economy. Now, they are some kind of supporters of Brexit, which has caused so much harm to Scotland. It is inexplicable how any Opposition Member could take such a position, as we all heard them do.

[Ian Blackford]

My hon. Friend is correct. It is 1.10 pm; we have until 7 o’clock to debate the issue. To hon. Members in other parties on both sides of the House, I promise that we will respect the importance of the subject, because this is about Scotland’s future. To friends and colleagues—Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem Members—I say, let us have that debate about Scotland’s future and let us respectfully disagree on what we see the future as. We will put the case for Scotland to be an independent country; they should come and engage with us, and put the case for Scotland to stay in the Union. I have to say that when we have these debates, I do not hear that case for Scotland to stay in the Union.

The evidence of the damage done by Brexit is mounting by the day. From those who forced it on Scotland, however, not one word of contrition or apology has ever been offered for that massive act of economic self-harm. I am tempted to say that when it comes to Brexit and Westminster, there are really none so blind as those who will not see—my goodness, that has been shown today. In many respects, however, the truth is even worse.

--- Later in debate ---

[Ian Blackford]

rose—

[Kirsten Oswald]

rose—

[Robin Millar]

Please, let me make a little progress.

It is important to enter into that serious debate.

I find myself standing here asking myself questions about identity when the matter of independence is raised. Identity is a complicated business. As a proud Welshman and supporter of this Union, I find myself at the heart of a web of family, communal, economic and national bonds and histories. These bonds link me to those across these islands whose past and whose future are interwoven with my own. I cannot hold it against SNP Members that they find themselves pulled in a different direction. Our disagreements on identity are those perhaps of the heart, not just of the head.

The foundation of the state is a serious matter, deserving serious scrutiny and question. Millions of people across these isles, and, indeed, the world, would find their lives dramatically shaken by the break-up of the United Kingdom. Those who seek to found their arguments on promises of prosperity have also the utmost responsibility to set out plans that are honest, transparent and detailed.

--- Later in debate ---

[Angus Brendan MacNeil]

rose—

[Kirsten Oswald]

rose—

[Robin Millar]

I will take an intervention from the hon. Lady.

[Kirsten Oswald]

May I gently ask the hon. Gentleman to reflect on the treatment that his Government are meting out to those who are fleeing to the United Kingdom, in contrast with the welcome and the open door that the Scottish Government have given to Ukrainian refugees? Will he reflect very carefully on the set lines that he is talking about, which do not reflect the reality on the ground?

[Robin Millar]

I take the hon. Lady’s point in the spirit in which it was intended, but perhaps she or another Member could answer whether it is true that Ukrainian refugees have had to be housed on ships in Scotland because there has not been the accommodation they were promised. They have received a warm welcome across the UK—I have no doubt that, or about the ambition behind it—but my point is the reality of public services in meeting that ambition. That is the thrust of this debate. It is a debate about independence and the economy, and about how we meet the reality of providing for those on who depend on us.

I will make one more point on the question of moral duty. Ireland has been mentioned a number of times as an example. Ireland secured its independence in 1922, but as one of his first actions the Irish Minister for Finance, Ernest Blythe, cut the pay of civil servants and reduced Government spending from £42 million in 1923 to £28 million by 1926. That is a one-third cut in Government spending in the years immediately following independence. These are real questions about the consequences of a transition to an independent nation but, again, on these practical points of a plan for independence, the document presented is silent.

I will finish on this point—

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Perkins]

May I respond to the point that has just been made? I worked very hard during the Brexit referendum to make a case, but I accept that people across the coalfield voted in a different way. I return to the statistic that I put to the right hon. Gentleman’s leader, the right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Ian Blackford). The Scottish National party spent a paltry £91,000 on the EU referendum. During the Scottish independence referendum, it spent £1,344,000. The truth is that the people committed to Scottish independence believed that the outcome they got was exactly the one they wanted. They wanted the rest of the UK to vote out while Scotland voted to stay in and that is why they did not lift a finger to get a result. Because of the limp effort it put in, the turnout in the Brexit referendum was lower in Scotland than in any other region or nation of the United Kingdom. That is the reality. The Scottish National party made it very clear to its voters that it was happy with that outcome. It knew there was a likelihood that that outcome would strengthen its case for Scottish independence.

[Kirsten Oswald]

rose—

[Mr Perkins]

If the hon. Lady is willing to withdraw the comment she made, I will give way to her.

[Kirsten Oswald]

I am grateful to the hon. Member. I am somewhat perplexed. I pointed out that his colleagues had made comments that clearly apologised for the UK Government’s economic mismanagement. I do not know why the UK Labour party would support that, but that is its problem, not mine. I absolutely stand by my concerns about the Labour party’s position on Brexit. It is unclear to me why Labour Members are so supportive of Brexit, considering the damage that it has done to Scotland, or why the hon. Gentleman continues to suggest that people such as me, with a 73% remain vote in my constituency, somehow were not marching the streets, as all my colleagues were. Scotland did not want to leave the EU and we want to be back in it. The hon. Gentleman might not like that, but he does not get to misrepresent it.

[Mr Perkins]

I hear what the hon. Lady says, and I repeat what I said: if the SNP was desperate to stay in the European Union, it had a funny way of showing it. Why is it—[Interruption.] I will respond to the points that have been made. Why is it—let SNP Members answer this—that the SNP spent just 7% of the amount of money on the Brexit referendum that it spent on the Scottish independence referendum? The only conclusion that I can come to is that the SNP did not care nearly as much about that.

I accept that the people of Scotland—the majority of people who voted in that referendum—voted to remain in the EU. However, the turnout in Scotland was also very low and I believe that the SNP’s lack of effort was a major factor.

--- Later in debate ---

[Kirsten Oswald (East Renfrewshire) (SNP)]

I congratulate everybody who has contributed to the debate. It has been an outstanding example of the range of different and very pressing arguments for why Scotland needs to be an independent country. The reality is that no country in history has been better prepared to transition to independence than Scotland currently is. Scotland has a dynamic modern economy, an abundance of natural and human capital, and a globally recognised international brand.

In 2014, like a number of my colleagues on the SNP Benches, I joined the SNP. We were told at that point that only with a no vote would Scots get safer, faster, better change. The events of the last eight years—even the events of the last eight weeks, actually—have shown that to be utter fiction. The Union is absolutely not the risk-free option that was promised, as my right hon. Friend the Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Ian Blackford) rightly pointed out. It has been stark, but it is surprising what we have not heard. What we have not heard at all today is any case whatever for the Union, and that is telling.

Let me turn to the motion and the most recent “Building a New Scotland” paper. Scotland’s economy is diverse; it has many strengths. We have the best educated population in Europe, with the highest proportion of people aged between 25 and 65 with tertiary level education, and our Government made the political choice to provide free university tuition. In 2020, almost 100% of Scotland’s electricity demand was generated by renewables and Scotland has 25% of Europe’s offshore wind and tidal potential, meaning that Scotland can and will become the renewable powerhouse of Europe. My hon. Friend the Member for Kilmarnock and Loudoun (Alan Brown) correctly noted the positive position of Norway, with its sovereign wealth fund to cushion its population. What a contrast to the approach of the UK Government! We also have a food and drink sector that is renowned worldwide, with Scotch whisky accounting for a fifth of all UK food and drink exports. As my hon. Friend the Member for Perth and North Perthshire (Pete Wishart) said, with such an abundance of resources and talent no one can seriously argue that Scotland could not thrive as an independent country. I was delighted that even the shadow Secretary of State, the hon. Member for Edinburgh South (Ian Murray) seemed to accept that fact, as did, I think, the hon. Member for Banff and Buchan (David Duguid).

The benefits of self-government have been evident since the reopening of the Scottish Parliament in 1999. The devolution of powers to Scotland has changed Scotland for the better. Just imagine what we could do with the powers of independence. Scottish Governments of different political affiliations have implemented policies that have led to a fairer, more equal Scotland. In fact, often they are mitigating the damaging policies of the UK Government. A good example of that is the Scottish child payment, which has been welcomed by anti-poverty campaigners as a game changer. I note that the Secretary of State for Scotland was signally unable or unwilling to entertain any discussion on his Government’s failure to make that kind of positive choice. The Scottish child payment will rise to £25 a week per eligible child this month. It is at the forefront of Scotland’s fight against child poverty. This is action that our Government are taking within the powers they have. Just imagine what more could be done. Recent analysis shows that even now Scotland has the lowest child poverty rate of any part of the UK. It is still too high, but it demonstrates that interventions by Governments who are willing to make them can drive down child poverty rates.

In Scotland, eligible children benefit from 1,140 hours of free high-quality early learning and childcare. That saves families around £4,000 a year and allows parents, in particular mothers, to return to the workplace if they so choose. The Scottish Government’s commitment to fair work has also seen drastic changes in workplace practices in Scotland, a significant contrast to the UK Government’s gig economy approach set out very eloquently by my hon. Friend the Member for Paisley and Renfrewshire North (Gavin Newlands). Recent figures show that 91% of employees in Scotland receive the real living wage; again, that is the highest proportion of any UK nation. The gender pay gap in Scotland is 3.7% between male and female workers, which is better than the 8.3% gap across the rest of the UK. My hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh North and Leith (Deidre Brock) spoke about the Scottish Government’s approach to feminist foreign policy.

The Scottish Government have also committed to improving the lives of LGBT people and will implement a total ban on conversion therapy this parliamentary term, whereas, this week, the UK Government delayed a ban, with the new Minister for Women and Equalities reported as wanting to review her predecessor’s work. She was the predecessor very recently—it is quite hard to keep up with the musical ministerial chairs. That delay comes despite the UK Government having promised a conversion therapy ban since the Prime Minister’s predecessor’s predecessor’s predecessor was in office, but that was only a few weeks ago.

While the Scottish Government works hard to continue to deliver that kind of real, tangible progress for all people in Scotland, the same cannot be said of this UK Government. Perhaps the most obvious example of Westminster failing Scotland is Brexit. Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU, but we have been dragged out against our will. It is estimated that that will result in Scotland’s GDP being 4% lower by 2030 than it would have been if we had remained in the EU. That is the equivalent of £3.2 billion of revenue lost every single year. Brexit not only damages our economic prosperity, but weakens our society and communities. We have seen fewer EU students coming to study in Scotland. EU students have and would have contributed not just economically, but culturally and socially.

Scotland is the only part of the UK that is forecast to experience population decline in the next 30 years, so we need inward migration to grow our economy and support our public services. We need independence to achieve that, because despite Scotland’s needs—without even getting into the horrific narrative coming from UK Government members about invasions—the UK Government continue to pursue a shamefully hostile policy towards immigration. Unfortunately, the Labour party, to its shame, apes that anti-immigrant rhetoric. We need independence to deliver an immigration system that works for Scotland and that recognises the immense net contribution that immigrants have made, and will continue to make, to our country.

A number of Members have pointed out that Scotland has not voted for a Tory Government since 1955, but we still have to live with the damaging policies of Tory Governments. Most recently, there was the mini-Budget, when they crashed the economy with their reckless, unfunded tax cuts. As my right hon. Friend the Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber described, the pantomime—the circus—of being under Westminster control at the moment is so costly to households in Scotland, particularly to those who can least afford to have that financial wrecking ball inflicted on them.

The consequences of the mini-Budget will be with us for some time. We can think of the spike in interest rates and its impact on mortgage payments, with many of the families impacted already struggling. The Chancellor suggested that there will need to be tax rises at the Budget later this year. Taxes are necessary for public services, of course, but those rumoured tax rises will be used to plug a self-inflicted black hole caused by the Government’s mini-Budget disaster.

The economic downturn caused by Brexit and compounded by the mini-Budget has exacerbated the cost of living crisis. It is really callous, even by the Conservatives’ standards, that they flirt with scrapping the triple lock and refuse to commit to uprating benefits in line with inflation. As my hon. Friend the Member for Aberdeen North (Kirsty Blackman) was absolutely right to point out, the shameful nonsense coming from Conservative Members suggesting that people are somehow better off defies belief. People can see with their own eyes the situation that they in, and they will find that absolutely astonishing.

The thing is, Scotland has a lot going for it. We have a vibrant economy. We have a highly educated, talented population. We have natural resources that other countries are envious of, but we are locked in this trickle-down, doing-people-down UK economic model, which fails to match the economic levels of prosperity and social cohesion that our neighbours of similarly sized independent countries have.

With independence, we can have the Governments that we vote for. We can choose our future. We can choose our priorities. It will not always be easy and it will not happen overnight. It will take hard work, but no country in history has ever been in a better position to become independent.

There are many challenges facing western countries at the moment, including the climate crisis, the war in Ukraine and population movements, but ultimately the question for people in Scotland—and it is a question for them, not for Members in this place—is who they want. Who do they trust to lead the response to the challenges of the situation? Who do they trust to deliver for the people who live in Scotland: Westminster Governments we do not vote for, or a Government in Scotland we do vote for, equipped with the full powers of an independent state?

None of this is news to people in Scotland. They are watching, they see the choices before them, and it is time.