United Kingdom and China
Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts(12 years, 2 months ago)
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Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)
My Lords, like my noble friend Lord Clement-Jones, I congratulate my noble friend Lord Dobbs on his extremely eloquent opening to this important debate, and I look forward greatly to the two maiden speeches to come.
I am going to suggest that the main focus of our concerns should be not just on the straightforward bilateral relationship between the UK and China, and not just at governmental level—although that context is extremely important. However, the plain fact is that China now operates all around the world in a polycentric manner, and our interface with Chinese activity and development needs also to be polycentric, not just at government level but at all the soft-power levels, between people, professions and organisations—and particularly in education, which is why the point made by the noble Baroness, Lady Warwick, was so valid. Educational links are extremely important at every level, including right down to primary level, at which connections can be made via the internet every morning.
On the economic side, China is now the main trading partner of many of the most influential economies in both the developed and so-called developing world. As the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, reminded us, those adjectives are rather out of date. China has become the most sought-after source of capital. Countries, including ours, do not just wait for China to come calling but actively seek out and court Chinese investment. China now funds foreign Governments, underwrites or donates schools and hospitals, and pays for and constructs massive infrastructure projects throughout several continents. That often makes China, for the recipient country, a considerably more attractive and easier investor to deal with than the World Bank.
China has a major impact on both west and east Africa. On the European scene, the Chinese are active in Warsaw and other capitals in working out how to develop shale gas, among other resources. They are very active in Latin America and Australia—with which they now have a huge trading partnership—and throughout the Indian sub-continent, particularly in Pakistan and Myanmar. The Chinese are building a colossal base at Gwadar in Pakistan and huge ports at Chittagong in Bangladesh and Hambantota in Sri Lanka. I say almost in passing that they are sending to the next Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Colombo next week 100 delegates in order to involve themselves in business in that region. It sometimes seems as if the Indian Ocean, rather than the Atlantic Ocean, is becoming the main area of a new pattern and centre of world trade. Indeed, it is forming itself into a sort of maritime version of the old Silk Road—although that, too, is very active.
On the financial side, China now purchases global resources in such huge volumes that it has become the commodity price setter and key influence on markets. It is feeling its way to establishing the renminbi as a rival currency to the dollar, experimenting in Hong Kong and now coming into London, which is extremely welcome and good for us—as long as there is no discrimination with other foreign banks in the City of London. China has a stockpile of $3.5 trillion in foreign currency reserves. These are enormous figures.
On the energy and climate side, China’s appetite for energy resources and its own path towards a new energy pattern will frankly be decisive on all of us, regardless of our own policies. It is the world’s biggest coal importer, the world’s biggest oil importer and the world’s biggest emitter of carbon dioxide. It is building rows and rows of new coal-fired stations—not necessarily CCS-enabled, but very much more efficient than the old ones—and a large number of new nuclear stations. It has massive wind farm investments, although I put “investments” in inverted commas because there is not much evidence that they are paying their way or even being used; however, they are on a very large scale. It is buying up oil, gas and coal concessions around the world. It claims, so the Energy Minister there told me, to have more shale gas than the United States; but I am told that the geology is difficult and there is the problem, to which my noble friend Lord Dobbs rightly drew attention, that it may lack adequate water resources. On the nuclear side, of course, China will now be involved in our own nuclear fleet replacement programme, beginning with Hinkley Point, although I shall feel a bit more reassured when I see the money actually arrive.
On the social and political side, Chinese aid and investment around the world help development, but in some cases they bolster despotic regimes and aid states bent on violence and anti-democratic programmes. We need to show the Chinese, in our dialogue with them, that those moves are against their own interests. They affect the great cities of China just as much as they affect our country.
On the international and foreign policy side, China wants to be a world power of a kind, but if it is to be one, it will have to accept responsibilities at a greater level than hitherto on the global stage. After all, it imports 50% of its oil from Iran and Saudi Arabia, but one has to ask just where China is on Middle East issues, on Iran’s nuclear issue and on Syria and chemical weapons. Quite often, the Chinese seem outright detached or just negative.
China has limited territorial expansion plans. As we know, it regards Tibet and Taiwan as unquestionably part of China. It does, however, allow Hong Kong amazing freedom, including its own currency and representation in international bodies including parts of the Commonwealth, which is all very good for us in the UK. China is now aggressive towards Japan, which is regrettable; their two countries are vastly interwoven in trade terms and together add up to about 18% of the world’s GNP, so it is utterly in our interest to see that they settle quarrels like the Senkaku Islands. Moreover, China is still very prickly on questions of human rights and governance values.
We can work with this fantastic worldwide spread of activity; we can work with it constructively and we can advise about involvement in Africa, perhaps leading to a rather happier course because of our long experience. When I speak to my Chinese friends, they say, “Well, we are very big—a billion or more in population”. I tell them that we are very big as well; we are the Commonwealth with 2 billion or more and therefore we can speak to each other on equal terms. We should do that.
Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting
Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts(12 years, 3 months ago)
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Baroness Warsi
I am always grateful for the noble Lord’s intervention in these matters; he has great expertise in relation to the Maldives. As he said, the rerun of the presidential elections has now been cancelled at short notice. The Maldivian Elections Commission announced yesterday that this will now take place on 9 November and, in the event of it going to a second round, we are still hopeful that it will be concluded by about 16 November. The Foreign Secretary released a statement outlining the importance of the democratic process and of the elections concluding in accordance with the Maldives constitution, which says that a President should be inaugurated by 11 November. We have consistently pressed for this. If that is followed, there may be a representative by 15 November, when CHOGM takes place.
Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)
Does the Minister accept that, while all human rights issues are extremely important and should be raised with great vigour by our leaders when they go down to Colombo, one of the major focuses will be on the vast expansion of Commonwealth trade and investment organised by the Commonwealth Business Council and Commonwealth Business Forum in Colombo? Is she aware that the Chinese are planning to send a very large delegation—said to be 70 strong—to this conference, as are Japan, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, demonstrating their commitment to the possible expansion of trade with the Commonwealth? Can she tell us how many delegates the UK Trade & Investment agency will be sending there?
Baroness Warsi
I am not sure what the precise nature of the final delegation will be, but I will certainly write to the noble Lord with details of what representatives of UKTI will be there. Of course, we encourage trade not just between Commonwealth countries but between Commonwealth countries and other nations, but I will write to the noble Lord with more details.
Lebanon
Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts(12 years, 6 months ago)
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Baroness Warsi
The noble Baroness may be aware of the Foreign Secretary’s specific initiative on preventing sexual violence in conflict. Part of that is to have experts advising at an early stage, when we look at how refugee camps are set up. For example, specific work is being done on where the toilets and wash facilities are for women—and to ensure that they are done in a way that means women are protected—and on where the food facilities are. That is part of the thinking going into the development of these refugee camps.
Lord Howell of Guildford
My Lords, the EU move to blacklist the military wing of Hezbollah is the right one, although it is a very sensitive area and EU interventions in the Middle East jigsaw have not always been a dazzling success. The Minister’s remarks about continuing and strengthening our own bilateral links with Lebanon are very welcome, but will she add to that our support for the development of its very considerable offshore oil and gas resources? If developed, they could bring prosperity to the whole region and maybe contribute to peace.
Baroness Warsi
My noble friend always understands issues in much more detail than I ever could. I am not familiar with the particular oil and gas reserves to which my noble friend refers, but I of course support his comments. We have put huge efforts into making sure that we strengthen the trade relationship between our two countries.
Syria and the Middle East
Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts(12 years, 7 months ago)
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Lord Howell of Guildford
My Lords, more than a year ago, Lakhdar Brahimi said that the choice for Syria was between his plan, which at that time was for some kind of transitional government, and hell. His plan was completely rejected and now we have hell. Syria is descending into total fragmentation, with a hideous death toll and oceans of human misery, as we have heard in several very eloquent and penetrating speeches. The costs to date are estimated at anything between $50 billion and $100 billion, perhaps far more: one can hardly put a price on these things. Prices in Syria have risen 100% in the past year and are heading for hyperinflation and the point where money dies. Unemployment has quadrupled and many feel that the country is getting ready to split up, possibly with an Alawite statelet, as under French rule in the 1930s.
Meanwhile, in Jordan, Hashemite rule is under pressure. As we heard in the eloquent speech of the noble Lord, Lord Williams, the state of Lebanon is threatened, although I am not quite as gloomy as he is about the miraculous way in which that state has somehow survived so far, given the amazing pressures since its own civil war. Even Turkey is destabilised, and there is clearly a feedback into a worsening situation in Iraq, which we sometimes overlook as being one of the world’s biggest oil producers.
Meanwhile, on the ground, the rebels seem to have captured Deraa and have plenty of anti-tank weapons. Every day, Qatar and Saudi Arabia run arms runs with massive supplies of weapons, and while these are perhaps not all the rebels want there are a great deal of them, so there is a stalemate already. There is no hope of a new force arising—as someone said the other day, a new Zenobia—to unite Syria. Nothing of that is in sight. It was a non-sectarian battle to start with and could have been handled much more wisely, but it was not, and now all sorts of jihadists have joined in, as we heard from the noble Lord, Lord Wood. It is now becoming a civil war between Islamic sects. The pessimists could say that when we had a similar religious division in Europe, it lasted 100 years and involved unbelievable atrocities.
It is hardly surprising that in all this appalling scene, where terrorist-inclined organisations are fighting each other on both sides, we are all very reluctant to intervene. That is understandable, but—there is a “but”—we cannot do nothing when not merely a whole house but a whole neighbourhood is on fire, and the fire is spreading. This kingdom is supposed to be a responsible and powerful contributor to the network of world peace and stability, and I believe that we are as long as we do not lose confidence in ourselves. We live in a totally interdependent world. Even those who sometimes hanker after different versions of independence when we talk about other issues do not seem to understand that the whole system is now totally connected. Interdependence obliges us to proceed on certain courses. In this case, we simply cannot opt out. However, in not opting out and deciding how to proceed, we must not allow this to turn into an old-fashioned Cold War, East/West issue, which I am afraid it is rapidly sliding towards. Indeed, that is my worst fear of all. We hear more and more talk of line-up and the West must do this and Iran, Russia and China must do that. That is the stance that many of us thought we had seen for the last time with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the old world of the divided Communist Cold War. To bring it back and to act as though it had never gone is a great mistake.
I concede that there are enormous hurdles to proceeding in any direction at all. Diplomacy has become decoupled from the facts on the ground. There is a weak and divided Syrian national council, now the national coalition. It is very hard to know who is in charge. The Russians, although they have talked big about legitimate regimes and remaining behind Bashar al-Assad, have totally failed to influence him. Their diplomacy, which they proclaim very loudly, has not been a success. The mechanism of dialogue is extremely unclear and the past aspiration of all nations to develop the concept of responsibility for moving in and protecting against hideous atrocities and killings has been blocked at the United Nations by Russia and China.
In these circumstances, we have to be completely realistic and recognise that China and Russia are the key to any change. Without them, any measures taken will produce counter-reactions and escalate the problem. There should be a common responsible global approach, without which there will be no effective approach. The good news in all this gloom is that the UK has very recently mended its fences with China, and that positive move is understood and welcomed on both sides. My right honourable friend the Foreign Secretary, William Hague, has held detailed talks with the Russian authorities and Mr Lavrov. Of course, my right honourable friend and the Prime Minister have had sessions with Mr Putin in the past few days at Lough Erne and no doubt elsewhere.
If one were to look for a third chink of light in this otherwise horrific situation, there could be some change, as the noble Lord, Lord Williams, suggested, now that Mr Rouhani is in charge in Iran. However, it is much too early to say anything on that. It is only in the new global context that one can start carefully to decide what kind of intervention can be pieced together, whether it is arms, assistance on the ground or any other kind of assistance to one side or the other.
What can be done to bring the two giant powers, Russia and China, to a more responsible and constructive position? In a way, China is in need of much more discussion and dialogue. The Chinese talk about intervening only peacefully, and have used the phrase the “peaceful rise” of China. That is questionable because the Chinese have not always been peaceful. However, the plain fact facing them is that the bulk of their country’s oil imports now come from the Middle East. Most oil resources from there go eastwards, not westwards. It is estimated that by 2030 95% of all oil and gas will go east to China and the great rising powers of Asia. Syria and Iran are therefore China’s problem, and there is no future for China in stoking the Syrian conflict.
The reality that even the Chinese must face is that power now lies as much in the networks of the street and the totally connected world system as it does in the hands of any individual country. We have only to watch what is happening in Brazil, Turkey or Egypt, where digital network power and the street are challenging the traditional tools of government, to see where the real forces lie. We should therefore engage with these great powers that think that they can play superpower politics in the age of the networked world. We have to engage much more closely with China’s think tanks and continue our discussions with the Russians to make them realise that in the end we all share the same responsibility and that the dangers of failing to combine together will affect us all, whether it be the Chinese, Russians, Europeans or Americans.
We have no choice in this age of total connectivity but to make a firm contribution to the common cause of trying to halt the Syrian horror. However, there must be a genuinely common cause to which to contribute, and this, frankly, does not yet exist, so the prime task is to establish this common approach. I believe that we in Britain are well placed to make a contribution in seeking that goal, and we should strongly support my right honourable friend William Hague in his efforts in that direction. That is where the solution, if there is one, to this horror lies: in a common global approach. Without a common global approach, any attempt unilaterally or on behalf of the so-called West will fail.
Burma
Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts(12 years, 8 months ago)
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Baroness Warsi
We continue to make representations on this matter. We, too, felt hopeful when President Thein Sein said that he would allow this office to be opened. He reiterated that commitment when he met President Obama, and we continue to press him to make real that commitment.
Lord Howell of Guildford
My Lords, all these concerns about Burma/Myanmar are very welcome and reflect very well on noble Lords and Members of this House who are concerned about these things. However, could we also add the thought that it is something of a miracle that the country of Burma/Myanmar is now moving towards rejoining the comity of nations? In the longer term, if we work positively and closely with the authorities and face their terrific and very difficult concerns, we will bring them to the democratic pattern that we all admire and maybe even to being members of the Commonwealth. Will the Minister recognise this positive side of our work with Burma for the future?
Baroness Warsi
I absolutely recognise the comments made by my noble friend, whether those concerns relate to prisoner release, freedom of the press or political participation. Of course, we must recognise and congratulate the Burmese for moving in the right direction.
Syria
Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts(12 years, 8 months ago)
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Baroness Warsi
I have not read that article, but I will make sure that I do and that it is brought to the attention of my colleagues. It is important that a wide range of views is fed into the debate when these decisions are made. I absolutely accept the noble Lord’s concerns about pouring petrol on a fire, but I think that he will agree with me that doing nothing is not an option.
Lord Howell of Guildford
My Lords, I am extremely grateful to my noble friend for setting out the position with such acumen and accuracy. There are two points that she did not mention. First, China has growing influence and concern in this region. Indeed, it relies on the area for more and more of its fuel. What discussions, if any, have there been with the Chinese authorities about them playing a more constructive role, in addition to the discussions with Russia?
Secondly, can the Minister clarify the position of Jabhat al-Nusra? As I understand it, Hezbollah is working with Assad and the Iranians and is fighting against Jabhat al-Nusra. Jabhat al-Nusra has declared that it is in alliance with al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda and Hezbollah are both dedicated to attacking Israel and, indeed, the West. This is an extraordinary melange. Will the Minister describe how we are going to ensure, now that Jabhat al-Nusra dominates areas of Syria and the opposition, that we are not going to find ourselves helping people who are our direct enemies and a direct threat to further peace in the Middle East?
Baroness Warsi
I will have to write to my noble friend in relation to his first question about negotiations and direct discussions with China. I am not familiar with the extent of those conversations, although I know that some have taken place.
My noble friend raises a really important point about the complications of the country that we are dealing with and the overlaps and different loyalties of groups at any one time. Extremism deeply concerns us in relation to what is happening in the region and its impact upon the United Kingdom. We have credible evidence that up to 100 young British people, or people connected to the United Kingdom, are out there fighting. It is attractive for people around to the world to go there and fight. We are concerned about the implications of that for the region and for when these people start to come home. That is why when we had the discussions with the national coalition one of the first things that we discussed was extremism. We have a commitment from the national coalition that it will do all it can to ensure that terrorism and extremism do not manifest themselves and grow and that weapons or any support given to the national coalition do not get into the hands of extremists.
EU: Prime Minister’s Speech
Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts(13 years ago)
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Lord Howell of Guildford
My Lords, those, both here and overseas, who think that the Prime Minister’s speech was all about getting some exclusive deal for the United Kingdom from the rest of the European Union are starting from entirely the wrong point. The first line of the Prime Minister’s speech was that this speech was,
“about the future of Europe”.
What he is concerned about, and what we should in all parties and sections be concerned about, is giving new direction to a European Union which is today lost in the thickets of the debate about the eurozone—which will continue for a long time, it has not been cured—overcentralisation and general unpopularity. That creates uncertainty which will continue and must be addressed.
To give new direction to that unsatisfactory situation throughout Europe, we need two things. We need colossal intellectual effort, similar to, or perhaps even greater than, that which went into the original Monnetiste ideas in the post-war situation; and we need new friends and allies all around Europe to mobilise the new thinking.
I believe that the friends are there. I think that the European budget experience last autumn showed that many people are determined to have a new approach in Europe. They are to be found in almost every quarter, not just in the smaller ex-satellite countries of eastern and central Europe but in France, Germany, Italy and other great countries.
On the intellectual side, huge new effort will be required. If I may say so, it must be more than diplomatic effort. I very much admire the team inside the Foreign and Commonwealth Office—indeed, some of them are my good friends—but the task now is one for which we will have to draw on the best brains in business, engineering, science, management and, I would hope, all the political parties to bring new direction to the eurozone and new relationships of its members to the central institutions. The task is to show how a modernised European Union can work and how treaties can be amended to allow that. The challenge now is to draw up the architecture for a more flexible, dynamic, democratic European Union which connects to the people. It is a challenge to which all those who are concerned about our position in Europe and the stability of Europe should now turn their efforts.
Syria
Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts(13 years ago)
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Baroness Warsi
The noble Lord is aware that we have in the past raised concerns about any weapons that may be passing to Hezbollah, about where those weapons may be coming from and about comments that have been made by Hezbollah about where they may be receiving weapons from. I hope that the House feels that I am not being evasive, but it would be inappropriate for me to speculate on what has happened, the implications of it, what someone may do in response and the implications that that would have in relation to international law.
Lord Howell of Guildford
While I appreciate that the Minister obviously does not want to speculate until there is a clearer view about this, and while I am the first to be critical of Israel when occasionally it overreacts and overresponds with undue rigour, do the noble Lords, Lord Hannay and Lord Anderson, not have a point? The shipping of weapons to Hezbollah, which already has thousands of rockets, is an extremely dangerous and destabilising act in the Middle East. Anything that furthers the position of Hezbollah, which is a state within a state in Lebanon, and makes it more ready to be highly provocative, as it has proved in the past, against Israel, will add to the difficulties in the area. Does she appreciate that we need to watch this very carefully and in a balanced way?
Baroness Warsi
My noble friend, as always, makes an important point and comes at it with great expertise. He will, however, be comforted to know that whatever has happened on that border, we understand at the moment that the blue line between Israel and Lebanon remains calm and that the work of UNIFIL continues in the region in the way that it has done until now. I can, however, say that any transfer of arms to Hezbollah would clearly be a violation of Security Council Resolution 1701.
European Union: Recent Developments
Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts(13 years, 1 month ago)
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Lord Howell of Guildford
My Lords, it is a pleasure to follow the noble Lord, Lord Williamson, who understands the complexity of the matters that we are addressing better than most.
In my view, to handle the European Union issue successfully in the light of current developments, our policy framers and advisers, and their critics, need a new mindset. Compiling a wish list of things that we want to grab back from the EU, and then trying to negotiate to stay in the single market, which some less experienced MPs and others seem to think we should be doing, will lead nowhere. We have been round this course before and in the end it does not work. The case needs to be made for greater differentiation within the European Union and this should be put forward as a positive policy for the EU as a whole rather than as a form of special pleading for UK “exceptionalism”.
As the ongoing budget saga has confirmed, we are not alone in wanting new directions for the European Union. We do have allies, both among member state Governments and, I suspect, even more among member state peoples, as recent German popular support for a different Europe has indicated. The isolation or marginalisation argument that we hear so much of is complete nonsense.
A successful approach requires a challenge at its roots to the outdated 20th-century integrationist philosophy inside the EU, commonly called “more Europe”. This challenge should be in the interests of Europe as a whole, not just the British, and, if properly formulated, will have many allies around the Union. The old “more Europe” doctrine is still being attempted with the fiscal pact, as we have already heard today. Time will show that this, too, will no longer work, not least because of the huge and still growing divergences between eurozone economies within the eurozone.
To make the case effectively and profoundly for an alternative path or model for the EU, we need to draw on disciplines far outside the normal confines of diplomacy. Scientists tell us every day that this is now an age not of centralism, top-down plans and blueprints but of self-assembly, self-replication and legitimacy built from the bottom up. The same applies, I suspect, between peoples. As the Prime Minister put it a year or so ago, in today’s world, we need,
“the flexibility of a network, not the rigidity of a bloc”.
As I have said, the key concept that we need in establishing the relationship between member states and the EU institutions is differentiation. The treaties invite us to think of powers and competences in chunks and groups which are frankly out of date. Areas such as social policy and employment policy are 20th-century categories. In today’s world, they can be far more separated and disaggregated in deciding which functions should be of common concern, which should rest at national level—where the subsidiarity concept can be effectively applied, which it has not been in the past —and which should be tackled at a far-wider-than- Europe level. The same could apply to agriculture and environmental policies, which nowadays break down into all sorts of new categories.
I am frankly puzzled by some aspects of the steps being taken towards a banking union within the eurozone countries. They are by no means guaranteed success. This is one more attempt—there will be many to come—to cope with the chronically sick euro system. In fact, a supervised banking union is a classic example of a set of functions that need to be handled globally, not regionally, as our financial experts in the City of London know well. That is why we have had Basel I, II and now III, to police and regulate banking practices the world over. I am glad that we are keeping our own globally-related financial system well clear of this narrow banking union endeavour, although with the appropriate safeguards against discrimination within the single market, as we heard from the Minister.
There is no reason at all why a policy of much more detailed differentiation in the treatment of various functions should lead to a two-tier Europe, as I fear that the present drift of events is leading. On the contrary, detailed unbundling and dissection of blocks of competences could lead to a far more varied and less divisive Europe than we have today. The gurus who keep telling us that there is no alternative either to locking ourselves into the integration process or withdrawing are quite wrong and out of date. I congratulate more clear-thinking experts like Frank Vibert at the London School of Economics for opening our minds to this second front in EU policy development in an age of complexity. We should not be afraid of taking the intellectual lead in EU policy. Many people around the union are waiting for us to do so.
We should not be afraid of showing that the Lisbon treaty was based on a deeply flawed understanding of how the connected world now works, as many of us argued at the time. We should not be afraid of laying the groundwork for a new treaty and calling a new IGC to carry it forward. Nor should we delay while the search for a solution to the problems of the euro goes through endless false starts and unsustainable initiatives. The euro will continue to require constant and very expensive treatment to survive. Meanwhile the European Union needs to be saved, reformed, updated and put on a far more secure basis of legitimacy and political support than it has in its present dysfunctional state. In turn, that will give us in this country, as well as many other states, sensible and sustainable relationships with all our neighbours and friends within the EU and with the EU as a whole. It will also give us a modern and realistically differentiated breakdown between national and supernational powers, bilateral alliances and collectivism in Europe, which will command popular support in any referendum, where we can rely on the shrewd and unconventional wisdom of the British people.
Let us put aside shopping lists and unrealistic want lists and boldly come forward with strong pan-European ideas and proposals for a healthier union in a new global landscape which is taking shape. If, as we are told, treaty changes in the European Union lie ahead anyway, let us ensure that we take the initiative in shaping them and helping to redirect Europe in a sensible, workable and relevant direction to the benefit of all member states, including ourselves.
Arms Trade Treaty Negotiations
Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts(13 years, 6 months ago)
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The Minister of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Lord Howell of Guildford)
My Lords, negotiations in New York are due to conclude on Friday 27 July. The negotiations are complex and sensitive, and at this stage it is not possible to predict the outcome. However, our ambitions remain unchanged. For the UK, success means a robust and effective legally binding treaty with strong provisions on international humanitarian law and human rights. The treaty must include everything from fighter planes to rifles, and bombs to bullets and ammunition. Arms brokering must be controlled and corrupt practitioners prosecuted. It should establish a transparent system whereby states publish a list of controlled goods and report regularly on their arms exports.
Lord Judd
My Lords, I thank the Minister for that reply. Does he not agree that on matters of such vital importance for global security—as is being underlined every day in Syria, the Gulf, Africa, Asia and elsewhere—that it would have been better for the Government to come with a considered statement on how the negotiations are proceeding and on their position, so that there could have been full and proper exchanges in this House? Does he not accept that there is growing disillusion and indignation across the world that there are all kinds of aspirations but no firm and binding conclusions? If we do not achieve a firm and binding outcome from these negotiations, is there not a case that it would be better to have no treaty at all?
Lord Howell of Guildford
I understand the noble Lord’s strong feelings. He has always been a robust fighter in this very important cause. However, we are at this very delicate and sensitive stage in the negotiations, when we are fighting to achieve a robust treaty and avoid what we would totally reject, which is having to sign a weak consensus. I am not sure that in the middle of the negotiations it would be better to discuss them. The noble Lord, with his experience, will possibly understand that. Although I fully applaud his feelings on this matter, we are at an absolutely crucial stage of mid-negotiation. This is something that has been fought for by officials under successive Governments for over six years. We are poised to achieve the very most that we can, as I outlined in my Answer.
Lord King of Bridgwater
Does the Minister agree that this will very soon represent the culmination of eight years’ work by determined Ministers and officials of both the previous and the present Governments and that we wish them well in these final, concluding days? I have to say that it is very bizarre to have a Private Notice Question that asks for the Government’s negotiating position two days before the final vote, after eight years’ work. Nobody denies the enormous importance of this treaty—for all the reasons that the noble Lord, Lord Judd, has given—so that responsible defence industries can operate in the proper, licensed way and so that the illegal shipment of arms which has caused such difficulty can be properly controlled under an international agreement. In these crucial last two days, is not the best thing for us to wish our negotiators the best possible success in this important undertaking?
Lord Howell of Guildford
My noble friend is absolutely right. I fully endorse everything he says. I believe your Lordships are at heart, and certainly have been in past statements, fully in support of these very difficult negotiations and this high ambition of the British Government and that we should today take the opportunity further to reinforce the support for what officials have struggled to achieve over the years under successive Governments.
Lord Hannay of Chiswick
My Lords, does the Minister recognise—and I am not asking what our negotiating position is—that between now and Friday it is highly likely that we will have to make a choice between a robust treaty, which is not signed by everyone, and a weak treaty, which will not be worth the paper it is written on because it will be subscribed to by countries like Russia, which is busy exporting arms to a situation of humanitarian disaster in Syria as if there were no tomorrow? Will he confirm the very welcome position he gave that we will stick to our guns—perhaps a slightly unfortunate phrase—and not water down the arms trade treaty that we have set out to get, even if this means that some of the largest exporters are temporarily at least not going to sign up?
Lord Howell of Guildford
My Lords, I have said that we are not going to sign a weak consensus. I know that the noble Lord, who is very versed in and a master of these negotiations, would not expect me to make statements about our negotiating position at this crucial stage. I repeat that a weak consensus or a feeble abandonment is not what is contemplated.
Lord Triesman
My Lords, we, too, wish the negotiators well, but I think the noble Lord will understand why we are apprehensive. On 13 July, the BIS Select Committee in the other place concluded that the Government seem to have adopted a different policy from that of the previous Administration and appear to be ready to weaken the arms trade treaty in order to placate the arms exporting countries, looking for what would emerge as a lowest common denominator approach. That apprehension is shared in New York. Any discussion with colleagues there will show that. They are deeply concerned that we did not sign the strong text of support calling for a strong treaty, already signed by 74 countries, and that we should consider showing that intent and good will now. Will the Government do so?
Lord Howell of Guildford
I think that that apprehension is ill founded. Ambassador Moritan, who chairs the process, obviously has had to manoeuvre. We have to be realistic that there are sceptics and that there are countries which, from the start, have been outright opponents of anything other than broad political agreements. We have to accept that. Our determination is not to be deviated from the pattern which was reflected under the noble Lord’s own Government, and I repeat that we are determined not to sign a weak consensus but to go for a robust treaty. That remains our position.
Baroness Falkner of Margravine
My Lords, does my noble friend agree that when in the past decade $2.2 billion-worth of arms have been sold to countries that are under an arms embargo, such as Iran, Myanmar and Zimbabwe, it is terribly important to get a text of some sort? I have to say, with all due respect, the Labour Benches have been fantastic about this treaty, but the binary question they pose to the House is that we either go for a treaty or, given that it is a consensus procedure, we go for nothing at all. Would it not be better to negotiate to the very last moment to get any text on the paper to build for an incremental future whereby we regulate arms than to settle for nothing, which is what I suspect they are posing?
Lord Howell of Guildford
I do not want to be involved in this polarised binary approach, as my noble friend rightly calls it. We are negotiating very hard. She is quite right that there are very high prizes to be achieved if we can get the robust treaty we want. I think I shall leave it there, except to observe that even with the treaty and, indeed, much more so without a treaty, illicit arms continue to swirl around the world and feed Syria, the killing and the murder, and they will continue to do so unless, step by step, we can move from the treaty to tighter and tighter controls.
Lord Browne of Ladyton
My Lords, those of us who follow these matters closely are hearing very strongly from New York that the sceptics are dominating the floor of this conference. We are constantly being impressed by the request that Britain speaks up more in this conference as a leader of those who wish to see a robust treaty. I shall repeat to the Minister the question posed to him by my noble friend Lord Triesman, about it not being too late for the UK Government to sign up to the statement signed by 74 countries setting out the humanitarian bottom line for a robust treaty. Are the Government prepared to consider doing that? It would send a very strong message to these negotiations.
Lord Howell of Guildford
Strong messages are going all the time. As I think the noble Lord knows, we have always said that we want to have a humanitarian dimension fully in this treaty. We have said that, but how we manage to secure our aims in this last vital stage is a matter of delicate negotiation, and I think I must leave it there, although I fully recognise the strong feelings on both sides of the House about this matter.