European Union (Referendum) Bill
Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts(10 years, 10 months ago)
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Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)
Apart from the obvious unwisdom of this House trying to throw out or talk out a Bill passed overwhelmingly in the other place, on which my noble friend Lord Strathclyde spoke so eloquently and pleased so many of us, I have just two brief observations to make.
First, I noticed that the other day the very able Treasury Minister Danny Alexander MP was deploring the uncertainty here about the European Union and all the scepticism, argument and talk of actual withdrawal. He believed it was undermining investment in the UK. We have heard the same message here today. My view of Mr Alexander is that much of the time he talks a great deal of sense and is an extremely able Treasury Minister, but on this occasion I believe he and the party of which he is a member have got things completely upside down.
What is the best way to drain the uncertainty and doubts out of the system and end the bickering and difficulties that have gone on? Obviously, it is to have in due course, at the right time, a popular vote which will settle the matter for decades ahead, just as the previous referendum did in 1975. It may not be for ever as things change. The whole of Europe is changing, but it will certainly settle the matter for decades ahead. Anything which assists that outcome, such as this Bill, should be strongly supported, not opposed, by those who see themselves as good Europeans. If Mr Alexander and his colleagues in his party or, indeed, the noble Lord, Lord Mandelson, from whom we have just heard, want less uncertainty and a stronger investor commitment to this nation over the next decade, they should be supporting, not opposing, this Bill. Those who oppose the in/out referendum idea are really saying that they are in favour of more friction and continuing, unending uncertainty, precisely the conditions which turn off investors and weaken confidence. In the end I believe that in reality all the political parties, even our Liberal Democrat friends sitting here, will have to face that and commit themselves to a referendum.
Baroness Falkner of Margravine (LD)
Is the noble Lord, Lord Howell of Guildford, whose expertise on this matter is known throughout the House, really saying that the Foreign Secretary, William Hague, who the noble Lord, Lord Mandelson, has just quoted, was wrong when he opposed having a fixed date?
Lord Howell of Guildford
No. Of course I am not saying any such thing.
Secondly, I understand and sympathise with the doubts and cautions that your Lordships have about referendums. We just heard from the noble Lord, Lord Taverne, on that. However the disdain—I heard a lot of that when I had the honour of taking the European Union Bill through this House on behalf of the Government in 2011—of some for referring great issues of constitutional power and the national future to popular judgment damages the European cause which the strongest European enthusiasts claim they espouse. There could be no better way of wounding the cause of European reform and progress—here I want to be optimistic, but careful—which I sensed from a debate we had in this Chamber last night may just be beginning to rise above party and acquire all-party common-sense support, which will be necessary for this nation, than hiding the issue. There could be no better way of wounding all that than hiding the issue from popular judgment and setting that trend back. If I am right, that trend is there. There could be no more effective way of consolidating a more democratic and popular European Union—and, I say to the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, one that has been undergoing huge change in the past two or three years and will continue to change over the next three years—than referring it to the people for decision in due course.
Noble Lords may dislike the referendum instrument, but in this information age, they must know perfectly well that Parliament is trusted only up to a point and when it comes to letting go of further powers, or taking steps into a very uncertain constitutional future, not much at all. With two-thirds of this nation on the internet each morning, it is absurd to believe that a decision such as one on our membership of the EU can somehow be kept from them.
I read somewhere that the great Lord Salisbury, at the beginning of the previous century, used to deplore in this House the way that public opinion was beginning to intrude into matters of foreign policy and international affairs. It is probably time that we moved on a little from that. This Bill will help us to do so.
EU: Reform
Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts(10 years, 10 months ago)
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Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)
My Lords, I thank my noble friend Lord Dykes for initiating this debate on European priorities. The right place to start is indeed from the famous Bloomberg speech by my right honourable friend the Prime Minister on 23 January 2013, which I strongly believe set the right agenda and pointed in the right direction. However, follow-up is now needed. The reform agenda will not solve itself; it must be vigorously pursued. Indeed, as the excellent pro-European organisation Open Europe puts it:
“Sweeping European reform is fully possible but … Downing Street must seriously raise its game”.
Of course, it is not only Downing Street. This should be above parties if that is possible, but certainly it should mobilise the best brains in this country.
Two essential strategic requirements follow from the agenda-setting of the famous 23 January speech. The first is obvious. It is that allies must be secured if there is to be European reform. It must be European reform, not just reform of the narrow issue of Britain’s relations with the rest of the European Union. There is definite progress on this. Mr Cameron, the Prime Minister, is gathering support for European reform on a scale frankly not dreamed of and, no doubt, longed for by previous Prime Ministers from both major political parties. Support for reform is coming quite strongly from the Netherlands, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, the Baltic states and, of course the Club Med countries. Although they are arguing for reform for very different reasons, as we know, related to the difficulties of the eurozone, they are also looking for a reformed system. We should also have Poland with us as a friend and in the reform programme—for the different kind of EU for the 21st century—but, frankly, present differences are not exactly helping that. However, I believe that the underlying interests are the same and point in the same direction.
In my view, there is no question of the UK being somehow marginalised or isolated, as some of the gurus and commentariat keep insisting. Even if we were alone in this EU reform programme, and we are not, in our modern networked world interdependence is guaranteed to every responsible nation. We are linked to all our neighbours in Europe and, indeed, with the wider world and the developing world far more closely today than ever before. We are caught up in an international system of connectivity and joint responsibility as never before in the history of the world. The intensity of communication is instant and deep, and that completely changes the interface between all nations.
It is not just a question of Governments in Europe supporting or being in favour of different aspects of European reform. There are also powerful interests that support them and which are shifting very visibly and very clearly. There is growing scepticism among German business leaders, who say that the doctrine of ever closer union has failed; that is frequently reported in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung and other bodies. We have the CSU in Munich calling very loudly for more localism and less centralism and regulation. We have the German association of family businesses, which are really the beating heart of the German economy, demanding that the treaties be “fundamentally recalibrated”. Frankly, the call is coming from countless quarters all over the European Union for the political class to rethink its hard-line 20th century dogmatic position, whether in France, Spain, Germany or any of the countries I have mentioned. That is the first requirement that flows from the 23 January agenda and the need to mobilise political support behind it.
The second essential element is the development of a really profound intellectual case against the outdated 20th century doctrine of integration and against what many countries regard as—as quoted in this morning’s papers—“federalist hyperbole”. The centralist model is simply no longer relevant in an age when all the disciplines, from scientists and engineers to physicists, are telling us about self-assembly, flexibility and building from the bottom up. This demands a different relationship internationally, and you can see it developing, perhaps away from the media somewhat, at every level in our different societies.
As many have pointed out—many people of strongly pro-European inclination—Europe today is not working. Unemployment is miserably high at 12%. Youth unemployment is frankly appalling; the figures are unbelievable. The euro problem is not solved. It has gone underground for the time being, but those who think it is solved are living in cloud-cuckoo-land.
In looking at decentralisation and the balance of competences, as our Foreign and Commonwealth Office is now doing, we should be especially wary of overambitious European energy policy, which is currently a catastrophe and of which the outcome is, horrifically, much more coal burning. Europe is burning more coal than ever. Germany is building 10 new coal-fired stations. There are sky-high energy prices in Europe, which are damaging our industry and competition, losing jobs and creating more fuel poverty. Oddly enough, this is an area in which, in some senses, you need more Europe. We need more physical connections of gas and electricity interconnectors to make our market work, but we also need much less administrative interference from Brussels in our national energy policies. More Europe and less Europe go together there.
Generally, we should not only assess but unpick and reallocate some of the competences that are now no longer valid and were conceived in a different, pre-internet, age. Equally important is that there is no real single market in services. There, too, we need fundamental change. I am not against a detailed shopping list of things that it would be nice for the different countries of Europe to have, including this country; that is perfectly reasonable. Of course, the whole subsidiarity principle needs to be boosted. National parliaments should be given a red-card role. Then there is the working time directive, tighter budgets and the common fishery policies—we have been over these things a thousand times. As long as these aims are widely supported, and are not just British special pleading, I am all for putting maximum force behind them. However, that is frankly not enough.
The fundamental case for change to bring the European Union into the 21st century, which people really want, needs advancing. I agree with Mrs Merkel—incidentally, I am sure that we all wish her well in her recovery from her recent skiing accident—that Europe is no longer the right model. An utterly transformed world has now emerged. New patterns of modernisation are now unfolding in Africa and Asia, which are not the same as the European modernisation experience at all. The growth markets we must penetrate are outside Europe and the West. Power has not just shifted east and south but has fragmented into a thousand pressures, sources, cells and groups in the global digital network, with both good and, frankly, very bad outcomes, as the Arab so-called spring—and now autumn and winter—reminds us.
Our priority is not so much to lead because, in the networked world, leadership is an out of date concept. It is working with, rather than leading, other partners in honest and realistic EU reform in the face of these totally new conditions. We need to turn the European Union into a positive force to meet this new world. We are ideally placed to do that, so let us get on with it.
Lord Giddens (Lab)
My Lords, I, too, congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Dykes, on having initiated this debate. As he said, it is a useful preface to the mega-exercise of tomorrow. I wish the noble Baroness—genuinely—good luck in keeping awake during the 750,000 speeches, or 75 speeches, that will be given tomorrow. Perhaps I should not say this, but I have just written a book on the future of Europe and I have had the occasion to travel quite widely debating it, during which travels I have met a range of European political leaders past and present. I always greatly respect the speeches of the noble Lord, Lord Howell, and quite often agree with him. In this case I have to say that I disagree with quite a chunk of what he had to say in assessing European political opinion about the current position of Britain.
I think that the UK still stands at fundamental risk of being isolated and finding itself in a marginal position in Europe, and it is in the process of alienating some of its best allies in eastern Europe because of the current debate about migration. One only has to look at Viviane Reding’s comments yesterday, reported today in the Times, to see the current of opinion in Europe about some of these policies.
When the Prime Minister gave his Bloomberg speech, European leaders were at one in saying that Europe à la carte is not an option. Having talked to quite a few of them I know that that view is strongly held today. The Prime Minister wants an open and flexible Europe. Everyone wants a more open and flexible Europe, and many reforms are being pushed through to try to achieve this. However, it is absurd to identify flexibility with cherry picking. Flexibility often means, for example, enhanced leadership. In the case of the eurozone, for example, as the noble Lord, Lord Dykes, mentioned, we need more leadership and more capability to respond quickly. That is not achieved by a version of fragmentation.
It is easy to see what would happen if the government approach was generalised and every country wanted the benefits of being in the EU without the commitments. The whole enterprise would become unworkable. It is for that reason that when I travelled around I found a response to the UK’s position that sees it as a mixture of special pleading and blackmail. I fully agree with my noble friend that the Government must surely seek to cut through this and break away from it.
Although it has not been mentioned, this discussion is about the British review of competences. One should begin by saying that there are substantial differences between our review and that being carried out in the Netherlands, which is often thought of as being a similar exercise. The Dutch approach is not based on the idea of securing treaty change—as our approach seems to be—rejects an approach based on opt-outs, and is concerned with subsidiarity as such. I have read the literature on our review of competences and a lot of interesting ideas are developed in it, but I feel strongly that we should make a contribution to the Commission’s attempts in the REFIT programme to produce a more flexible and proactive Europe. That programme is for doing precisely that. It has already reached a sophisticated level.
The idea that the UK has a special view on the need for flexibility and clear leadership in Europe is totally false. All European leaders are conscious of this. One of the things on which I agreed with the noble Lord, Lord Howell, is that we have lived in a world of fantastic transformation, dominated by technology, throughout most of our lives. All states, not just the European Union as a collection of states, are stumbling in their attempts to deal with this new world. It is completely false to suppose that the major European leaders are not conscious of the need to do so and do not have in play programmes striving to do just that.
I should like to have a go at asking the noble Baroness four questions about this matter. When I tried to do so in previous debates, she did not always seem inclined to answer those questions. I suppose that I will be sympathetic, given her situation of being squeezed between the two debates, if she does not answer them today. However, they are questions that the Government should address.
Point 1 is that I read the first batch of reviews of competences, which seemed to contain a lot of interesting discussion. However, in those that have been published—those that I know of, anyway—I do not see any basis for renegotiation at all. If the Government do see one, I should like to hear it. A group of authors produced a detailed study of the first publication of the review of competences, which concluded that the,
“first set of … reviews reveals no grounds in the assessments of British stakeholders for any large repatriation of competences, nor for further opt-outs”.
The study was based on consulting major stakeholders in the relevant areas. I would like the noble Baroness to comment on this if she has enough stamina to do so, but she may be saving it all up for tomorrow—which would perhaps be a wise strategy.
Secondly, are the Government really serious about getting EU-wide agreement for proposals to place significant restrictions on immigrants from new entrant countries to the EU in the future? I have seen that mooted in the press but I do not see it as a feasible or desirable strategy. We clearly need treaty change. Is there not a contradiction between, on the one hand, the Government’s endorsement of the single market—which is, after all, the centre point of the whole Bloomberg speech—and, on the other, the apparent desire to block free mobility of labour? We cannot have a well functioning single market without free mobility of labour. It is arguable that we actually need more mobility of labour than we have at the moment for economic efficiency in Europe. In the United States, for example, mobility of labour is at something like twice the level that it is in Europe, and this is generally seen by all economists as contributing to the efficiency of the American economy.
Lord Howell of Guildford
As usual, the noble Lord is making a fascinating speech, but is there not a difference between mobility of labour for work, bringing the single market further success and action, and mobility of people and migrants for benefit purposes?
Lord Giddens
Of course there is a difference but there is now a lot of evidence which indicates that no more than a tiny sliver of migrants in the EU have come benefit-seeking over the past few years. There is no evidence for what the noble Lord suggests. The European Commission has carried out a systematic study of this, and personally I do not think that that point holds.
My third question to the noble Baroness is as follows. Everyone agrees that one of the UK’s major contributions to Europe in the past has been to support enlargement, it being the driving force behind part of the European Union’s success. We had a war in Europe in which 100,000 died. In my view, it will be crucial that the Balkan countries—Serbia, Kosovo and Albania—are incorporated into the European Union. Are the Government seriously threatening to block accession, as reported in the press, as part of a sort of blackmail tactic? Is there any truth in that assertion? Surely that would be wrong. We need those countries in the European Union. There is still the possibility of conflict in that area, and the UK has always supported such a process in the past. Is it now going to try to throw up a roadblock? I certainly hope not, and I hope that the noble Baroness will agree with that.
Fourthly and finally, it is pretty clear that the most that Britain is likely to get from the other 27 partners in this enterprise is a kind of patched-up, face-saving deal, because to a substantial degree it is based on special pleading. I have asked the noble Baroness this question twice before but I would still like to see whether she is willing to venture an answer. Following the Prime Minister’s Bloomberg speech, if the Government are still in power and if sufficient forms of response from Europe are not achieved, is there a situation in which the PM would actively campaign for the UK’s exit from the European Union?
United Kingdom and China
Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts(11 years ago)
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Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)
My Lords, like my noble friend Lord Clement-Jones, I congratulate my noble friend Lord Dobbs on his extremely eloquent opening to this important debate, and I look forward greatly to the two maiden speeches to come.
I am going to suggest that the main focus of our concerns should be not just on the straightforward bilateral relationship between the UK and China, and not just at governmental level—although that context is extremely important. However, the plain fact is that China now operates all around the world in a polycentric manner, and our interface with Chinese activity and development needs also to be polycentric, not just at government level but at all the soft-power levels, between people, professions and organisations—and particularly in education, which is why the point made by the noble Baroness, Lady Warwick, was so valid. Educational links are extremely important at every level, including right down to primary level, at which connections can be made via the internet every morning.
On the economic side, China is now the main trading partner of many of the most influential economies in both the developed and so-called developing world. As the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, reminded us, those adjectives are rather out of date. China has become the most sought-after source of capital. Countries, including ours, do not just wait for China to come calling but actively seek out and court Chinese investment. China now funds foreign Governments, underwrites or donates schools and hospitals, and pays for and constructs massive infrastructure projects throughout several continents. That often makes China, for the recipient country, a considerably more attractive and easier investor to deal with than the World Bank.
China has a major impact on both west and east Africa. On the European scene, the Chinese are active in Warsaw and other capitals in working out how to develop shale gas, among other resources. They are very active in Latin America and Australia—with which they now have a huge trading partnership—and throughout the Indian sub-continent, particularly in Pakistan and Myanmar. The Chinese are building a colossal base at Gwadar in Pakistan and huge ports at Chittagong in Bangladesh and Hambantota in Sri Lanka. I say almost in passing that they are sending to the next Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Colombo next week 100 delegates in order to involve themselves in business in that region. It sometimes seems as if the Indian Ocean, rather than the Atlantic Ocean, is becoming the main area of a new pattern and centre of world trade. Indeed, it is forming itself into a sort of maritime version of the old Silk Road—although that, too, is very active.
On the financial side, China now purchases global resources in such huge volumes that it has become the commodity price setter and key influence on markets. It is feeling its way to establishing the renminbi as a rival currency to the dollar, experimenting in Hong Kong and now coming into London, which is extremely welcome and good for us—as long as there is no discrimination with other foreign banks in the City of London. China has a stockpile of $3.5 trillion in foreign currency reserves. These are enormous figures.
On the energy and climate side, China’s appetite for energy resources and its own path towards a new energy pattern will frankly be decisive on all of us, regardless of our own policies. It is the world’s biggest coal importer, the world’s biggest oil importer and the world’s biggest emitter of carbon dioxide. It is building rows and rows of new coal-fired stations—not necessarily CCS-enabled, but very much more efficient than the old ones—and a large number of new nuclear stations. It has massive wind farm investments, although I put “investments” in inverted commas because there is not much evidence that they are paying their way or even being used; however, they are on a very large scale. It is buying up oil, gas and coal concessions around the world. It claims, so the Energy Minister there told me, to have more shale gas than the United States; but I am told that the geology is difficult and there is the problem, to which my noble friend Lord Dobbs rightly drew attention, that it may lack adequate water resources. On the nuclear side, of course, China will now be involved in our own nuclear fleet replacement programme, beginning with Hinkley Point, although I shall feel a bit more reassured when I see the money actually arrive.
On the social and political side, Chinese aid and investment around the world help development, but in some cases they bolster despotic regimes and aid states bent on violence and anti-democratic programmes. We need to show the Chinese, in our dialogue with them, that those moves are against their own interests. They affect the great cities of China just as much as they affect our country.
On the international and foreign policy side, China wants to be a world power of a kind, but if it is to be one, it will have to accept responsibilities at a greater level than hitherto on the global stage. After all, it imports 50% of its oil from Iran and Saudi Arabia, but one has to ask just where China is on Middle East issues, on Iran’s nuclear issue and on Syria and chemical weapons. Quite often, the Chinese seem outright detached or just negative.
China has limited territorial expansion plans. As we know, it regards Tibet and Taiwan as unquestionably part of China. It does, however, allow Hong Kong amazing freedom, including its own currency and representation in international bodies including parts of the Commonwealth, which is all very good for us in the UK. China is now aggressive towards Japan, which is regrettable; their two countries are vastly interwoven in trade terms and together add up to about 18% of the world’s GNP, so it is utterly in our interest to see that they settle quarrels like the Senkaku Islands. Moreover, China is still very prickly on questions of human rights and governance values.
We can work with this fantastic worldwide spread of activity; we can work with it constructively and we can advise about involvement in Africa, perhaps leading to a rather happier course because of our long experience. When I speak to my Chinese friends, they say, “Well, we are very big—a billion or more in population”. I tell them that we are very big as well; we are the Commonwealth with 2 billion or more and therefore we can speak to each other on equal terms. We should do that.
Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting
Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts(11 years, 1 month ago)
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Baroness Warsi
I am always grateful for the noble Lord’s intervention in these matters; he has great expertise in relation to the Maldives. As he said, the rerun of the presidential elections has now been cancelled at short notice. The Maldivian Elections Commission announced yesterday that this will now take place on 9 November and, in the event of it going to a second round, we are still hopeful that it will be concluded by about 16 November. The Foreign Secretary released a statement outlining the importance of the democratic process and of the elections concluding in accordance with the Maldives constitution, which says that a President should be inaugurated by 11 November. We have consistently pressed for this. If that is followed, there may be a representative by 15 November, when CHOGM takes place.
Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)
Does the Minister accept that, while all human rights issues are extremely important and should be raised with great vigour by our leaders when they go down to Colombo, one of the major focuses will be on the vast expansion of Commonwealth trade and investment organised by the Commonwealth Business Council and Commonwealth Business Forum in Colombo? Is she aware that the Chinese are planning to send a very large delegation—said to be 70 strong—to this conference, as are Japan, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, demonstrating their commitment to the possible expansion of trade with the Commonwealth? Can she tell us how many delegates the UK Trade & Investment agency will be sending there?
Baroness Warsi
I am not sure what the precise nature of the final delegation will be, but I will certainly write to the noble Lord with details of what representatives of UKTI will be there. Of course, we encourage trade not just between Commonwealth countries but between Commonwealth countries and other nations, but I will write to the noble Lord with more details.
Lebanon
Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts(11 years, 4 months ago)
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Baroness Warsi
The noble Baroness may be aware of the Foreign Secretary’s specific initiative on preventing sexual violence in conflict. Part of that is to have experts advising at an early stage, when we look at how refugee camps are set up. For example, specific work is being done on where the toilets and wash facilities are for women—and to ensure that they are done in a way that means women are protected—and on where the food facilities are. That is part of the thinking going into the development of these refugee camps.
Lord Howell of Guildford
My Lords, the EU move to blacklist the military wing of Hezbollah is the right one, although it is a very sensitive area and EU interventions in the Middle East jigsaw have not always been a dazzling success. The Minister’s remarks about continuing and strengthening our own bilateral links with Lebanon are very welcome, but will she add to that our support for the development of its very considerable offshore oil and gas resources? If developed, they could bring prosperity to the whole region and maybe contribute to peace.
Baroness Warsi
My noble friend always understands issues in much more detail than I ever could. I am not familiar with the particular oil and gas reserves to which my noble friend refers, but I of course support his comments. We have put huge efforts into making sure that we strengthen the trade relationship between our two countries.
Syria and the Middle East
Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts(11 years, 5 months ago)
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Lord Howell of Guildford
My Lords, more than a year ago, Lakhdar Brahimi said that the choice for Syria was between his plan, which at that time was for some kind of transitional government, and hell. His plan was completely rejected and now we have hell. Syria is descending into total fragmentation, with a hideous death toll and oceans of human misery, as we have heard in several very eloquent and penetrating speeches. The costs to date are estimated at anything between $50 billion and $100 billion, perhaps far more: one can hardly put a price on these things. Prices in Syria have risen 100% in the past year and are heading for hyperinflation and the point where money dies. Unemployment has quadrupled and many feel that the country is getting ready to split up, possibly with an Alawite statelet, as under French rule in the 1930s.
Meanwhile, in Jordan, Hashemite rule is under pressure. As we heard in the eloquent speech of the noble Lord, Lord Williams, the state of Lebanon is threatened, although I am not quite as gloomy as he is about the miraculous way in which that state has somehow survived so far, given the amazing pressures since its own civil war. Even Turkey is destabilised, and there is clearly a feedback into a worsening situation in Iraq, which we sometimes overlook as being one of the world’s biggest oil producers.
Meanwhile, on the ground, the rebels seem to have captured Deraa and have plenty of anti-tank weapons. Every day, Qatar and Saudi Arabia run arms runs with massive supplies of weapons, and while these are perhaps not all the rebels want there are a great deal of them, so there is a stalemate already. There is no hope of a new force arising—as someone said the other day, a new Zenobia—to unite Syria. Nothing of that is in sight. It was a non-sectarian battle to start with and could have been handled much more wisely, but it was not, and now all sorts of jihadists have joined in, as we heard from the noble Lord, Lord Wood. It is now becoming a civil war between Islamic sects. The pessimists could say that when we had a similar religious division in Europe, it lasted 100 years and involved unbelievable atrocities.
It is hardly surprising that in all this appalling scene, where terrorist-inclined organisations are fighting each other on both sides, we are all very reluctant to intervene. That is understandable, but—there is a “but”—we cannot do nothing when not merely a whole house but a whole neighbourhood is on fire, and the fire is spreading. This kingdom is supposed to be a responsible and powerful contributor to the network of world peace and stability, and I believe that we are as long as we do not lose confidence in ourselves. We live in a totally interdependent world. Even those who sometimes hanker after different versions of independence when we talk about other issues do not seem to understand that the whole system is now totally connected. Interdependence obliges us to proceed on certain courses. In this case, we simply cannot opt out. However, in not opting out and deciding how to proceed, we must not allow this to turn into an old-fashioned Cold War, East/West issue, which I am afraid it is rapidly sliding towards. Indeed, that is my worst fear of all. We hear more and more talk of line-up and the West must do this and Iran, Russia and China must do that. That is the stance that many of us thought we had seen for the last time with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the old world of the divided Communist Cold War. To bring it back and to act as though it had never gone is a great mistake.
I concede that there are enormous hurdles to proceeding in any direction at all. Diplomacy has become decoupled from the facts on the ground. There is a weak and divided Syrian national council, now the national coalition. It is very hard to know who is in charge. The Russians, although they have talked big about legitimate regimes and remaining behind Bashar al-Assad, have totally failed to influence him. Their diplomacy, which they proclaim very loudly, has not been a success. The mechanism of dialogue is extremely unclear and the past aspiration of all nations to develop the concept of responsibility for moving in and protecting against hideous atrocities and killings has been blocked at the United Nations by Russia and China.
In these circumstances, we have to be completely realistic and recognise that China and Russia are the key to any change. Without them, any measures taken will produce counter-reactions and escalate the problem. There should be a common responsible global approach, without which there will be no effective approach. The good news in all this gloom is that the UK has very recently mended its fences with China, and that positive move is understood and welcomed on both sides. My right honourable friend the Foreign Secretary, William Hague, has held detailed talks with the Russian authorities and Mr Lavrov. Of course, my right honourable friend and the Prime Minister have had sessions with Mr Putin in the past few days at Lough Erne and no doubt elsewhere.
If one were to look for a third chink of light in this otherwise horrific situation, there could be some change, as the noble Lord, Lord Williams, suggested, now that Mr Rouhani is in charge in Iran. However, it is much too early to say anything on that. It is only in the new global context that one can start carefully to decide what kind of intervention can be pieced together, whether it is arms, assistance on the ground or any other kind of assistance to one side or the other.
What can be done to bring the two giant powers, Russia and China, to a more responsible and constructive position? In a way, China is in need of much more discussion and dialogue. The Chinese talk about intervening only peacefully, and have used the phrase the “peaceful rise” of China. That is questionable because the Chinese have not always been peaceful. However, the plain fact facing them is that the bulk of their country’s oil imports now come from the Middle East. Most oil resources from there go eastwards, not westwards. It is estimated that by 2030 95% of all oil and gas will go east to China and the great rising powers of Asia. Syria and Iran are therefore China’s problem, and there is no future for China in stoking the Syrian conflict.
The reality that even the Chinese must face is that power now lies as much in the networks of the street and the totally connected world system as it does in the hands of any individual country. We have only to watch what is happening in Brazil, Turkey or Egypt, where digital network power and the street are challenging the traditional tools of government, to see where the real forces lie. We should therefore engage with these great powers that think that they can play superpower politics in the age of the networked world. We have to engage much more closely with China’s think tanks and continue our discussions with the Russians to make them realise that in the end we all share the same responsibility and that the dangers of failing to combine together will affect us all, whether it be the Chinese, Russians, Europeans or Americans.
We have no choice in this age of total connectivity but to make a firm contribution to the common cause of trying to halt the Syrian horror. However, there must be a genuinely common cause to which to contribute, and this, frankly, does not yet exist, so the prime task is to establish this common approach. I believe that we in Britain are well placed to make a contribution in seeking that goal, and we should strongly support my right honourable friend William Hague in his efforts in that direction. That is where the solution, if there is one, to this horror lies: in a common global approach. Without a common global approach, any attempt unilaterally or on behalf of the so-called West will fail.
Burma
Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts(11 years, 6 months ago)
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Baroness Warsi
We continue to make representations on this matter. We, too, felt hopeful when President Thein Sein said that he would allow this office to be opened. He reiterated that commitment when he met President Obama, and we continue to press him to make real that commitment.
Lord Howell of Guildford
My Lords, all these concerns about Burma/Myanmar are very welcome and reflect very well on noble Lords and Members of this House who are concerned about these things. However, could we also add the thought that it is something of a miracle that the country of Burma/Myanmar is now moving towards rejoining the comity of nations? In the longer term, if we work positively and closely with the authorities and face their terrific and very difficult concerns, we will bring them to the democratic pattern that we all admire and maybe even to being members of the Commonwealth. Will the Minister recognise this positive side of our work with Burma for the future?
Baroness Warsi
I absolutely recognise the comments made by my noble friend, whether those concerns relate to prisoner release, freedom of the press or political participation. Of course, we must recognise and congratulate the Burmese for moving in the right direction.
Syria
Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts(11 years, 6 months ago)
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Baroness Warsi
I have not read that article, but I will make sure that I do and that it is brought to the attention of my colleagues. It is important that a wide range of views is fed into the debate when these decisions are made. I absolutely accept the noble Lord’s concerns about pouring petrol on a fire, but I think that he will agree with me that doing nothing is not an option.
Lord Howell of Guildford
My Lords, I am extremely grateful to my noble friend for setting out the position with such acumen and accuracy. There are two points that she did not mention. First, China has growing influence and concern in this region. Indeed, it relies on the area for more and more of its fuel. What discussions, if any, have there been with the Chinese authorities about them playing a more constructive role, in addition to the discussions with Russia?
Secondly, can the Minister clarify the position of Jabhat al-Nusra? As I understand it, Hezbollah is working with Assad and the Iranians and is fighting against Jabhat al-Nusra. Jabhat al-Nusra has declared that it is in alliance with al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda and Hezbollah are both dedicated to attacking Israel and, indeed, the West. This is an extraordinary melange. Will the Minister describe how we are going to ensure, now that Jabhat al-Nusra dominates areas of Syria and the opposition, that we are not going to find ourselves helping people who are our direct enemies and a direct threat to further peace in the Middle East?
Baroness Warsi
I will have to write to my noble friend in relation to his first question about negotiations and direct discussions with China. I am not familiar with the extent of those conversations, although I know that some have taken place.
My noble friend raises a really important point about the complications of the country that we are dealing with and the overlaps and different loyalties of groups at any one time. Extremism deeply concerns us in relation to what is happening in the region and its impact upon the United Kingdom. We have credible evidence that up to 100 young British people, or people connected to the United Kingdom, are out there fighting. It is attractive for people around to the world to go there and fight. We are concerned about the implications of that for the region and for when these people start to come home. That is why when we had the discussions with the national coalition one of the first things that we discussed was extremism. We have a commitment from the national coalition that it will do all it can to ensure that terrorism and extremism do not manifest themselves and grow and that weapons or any support given to the national coalition do not get into the hands of extremists.
Syria
Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts(11 years, 10 months ago)
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Baroness Warsi
The noble Lord is aware that we have in the past raised concerns about any weapons that may be passing to Hezbollah, about where those weapons may be coming from and about comments that have been made by Hezbollah about where they may be receiving weapons from. I hope that the House feels that I am not being evasive, but it would be inappropriate for me to speculate on what has happened, the implications of it, what someone may do in response and the implications that that would have in relation to international law.
Lord Howell of Guildford
While I appreciate that the Minister obviously does not want to speculate until there is a clearer view about this, and while I am the first to be critical of Israel when occasionally it overreacts and overresponds with undue rigour, do the noble Lords, Lord Hannay and Lord Anderson, not have a point? The shipping of weapons to Hezbollah, which already has thousands of rockets, is an extremely dangerous and destabilising act in the Middle East. Anything that furthers the position of Hezbollah, which is a state within a state in Lebanon, and makes it more ready to be highly provocative, as it has proved in the past, against Israel, will add to the difficulties in the area. Does she appreciate that we need to watch this very carefully and in a balanced way?
Baroness Warsi
My noble friend, as always, makes an important point and comes at it with great expertise. He will, however, be comforted to know that whatever has happened on that border, we understand at the moment that the blue line between Israel and Lebanon remains calm and that the work of UNIFIL continues in the region in the way that it has done until now. I can, however, say that any transfer of arms to Hezbollah would clearly be a violation of Security Council Resolution 1701.
EU: Prime Minister’s Speech
Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts(11 years, 10 months ago)
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Lord Howell of Guildford
My Lords, those, both here and overseas, who think that the Prime Minister’s speech was all about getting some exclusive deal for the United Kingdom from the rest of the European Union are starting from entirely the wrong point. The first line of the Prime Minister’s speech was that this speech was,
“about the future of Europe”.
What he is concerned about, and what we should in all parties and sections be concerned about, is giving new direction to a European Union which is today lost in the thickets of the debate about the eurozone—which will continue for a long time, it has not been cured—overcentralisation and general unpopularity. That creates uncertainty which will continue and must be addressed.
To give new direction to that unsatisfactory situation throughout Europe, we need two things. We need colossal intellectual effort, similar to, or perhaps even greater than, that which went into the original Monnetiste ideas in the post-war situation; and we need new friends and allies all around Europe to mobilise the new thinking.
I believe that the friends are there. I think that the European budget experience last autumn showed that many people are determined to have a new approach in Europe. They are to be found in almost every quarter, not just in the smaller ex-satellite countries of eastern and central Europe but in France, Germany, Italy and other great countries.
On the intellectual side, huge new effort will be required. If I may say so, it must be more than diplomatic effort. I very much admire the team inside the Foreign and Commonwealth Office—indeed, some of them are my good friends—but the task now is one for which we will have to draw on the best brains in business, engineering, science, management and, I would hope, all the political parties to bring new direction to the eurozone and new relationships of its members to the central institutions. The task is to show how a modernised European Union can work and how treaties can be amended to allow that. The challenge now is to draw up the architecture for a more flexible, dynamic, democratic European Union which connects to the people. It is a challenge to which all those who are concerned about our position in Europe and the stability of Europe should now turn their efforts.