Daesh in Syria and Iraq

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Wednesday 16th December 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

Does my noble friend accept that I strongly share her welcome for the Islamic military coalition mentioned in the Statement? Will she assure us that we are going to give strong encouragement to that coalition? Does she see it as a possible source of the troops on the ground which eventually will, of course, be needed to penetrate the Daesh heartlands? The noble Lord, Lord Wallace, mentioned Libya in passing. Will my noble friend say a word about how the Government see the Libyan situation, bearing in mind that Daesh is now getting increasingly embedded in Sirte, and is very likely shortly to take over the Libyan oilfields, which would give it a new resource with which to carry on its hideous operations?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, on my noble friend’s first point, we are not considering engaging in land warfare and having our Armed Forces within Syria. When the Leader of the House repeated the Prime Minister’s Statement, she set out why that was the case, so we are not planning for that. My noble friend is absolutely right to draw attention to the very serious position in Libya and the growing threat from extremist groups, including Daesh and groups affiliated with it. These groups pose a threat to the stability of Libya and the region itself, and potentially to the UK and our interests and citizens overseas. We are working closely with international partners to develop our understanding of Daesh’s presence in Libya, including in Sirte, to which my noble friend rightly referred. This includes working closely with Libya’s neighbours to enhance their ability to protect themselves against threats from terrorists in Libya and prevent weapons smuggling across the region. We continue to urge all Libyans to unite against these extremists.

Turkey

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Wednesday 18th November 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, we are sympathetic to all those who die as a result of violent acts of terrorism. Having spent four days last week in Iraq and a day in Turkey talking to the Syrian national coalition and people involved in humanitarian efforts, I was able to express appreciation of what the Turkish Government do. What is produced by way of media emphasis is a matter for the media, but, clearly, it is disappointing if there is not a focus on serious events such as those that the noble Baroness has described—it was a time, of course, when elections were under way throughout Turkey. On the EU-Turkey action plan, which I think is the matter to which the noble Baroness refers, we welcome that action plan, which sets out how the EU and Turkey can increase co-operation to ease the refugee burden on Turkey while preventing further uncontrolled migration to the EU. We work closely within that.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, does my noble friend accept that our bonds with Turkey go even wider than the refugee issues that were rightly raised by the noble Lord, Lord Maginnis? First, Turkey is seeking still to be a member of the European Union, but it is a kind of European Union that needs to be reformed and which is very much in line with our own aims—so we have much common ground there and I hope we are working together on that. Secondly, there is the Cyprus issue, which the noble Lord, Lord Harrison, rightly raised. There is real hope that, with the backing and help of Turkey, we can at last see movement on that issue, which has gone on for 50 years. Thirdly, there is a vast expansion of hydrocarbons in the eastern Mediterranean, in which Turkey has some interest. Again, bearing in mind the interests of the Republic of Cyprus, I think we can help with that. So there is a very big agenda of work to be done with Turkey and I hope it will be encouraged.

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, I think I can simply agree with my noble friend’s analysis.

Building Stability Overseas Strategy

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Thursday 16th July 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, we are strong supporters of the ICC. I visited the court just before Christmas and have maintained negotiations with it since then. We are continually pressing our partners to ensure that it has enough funding—we lead the way on that. I also press the ICC to reform some of its processes to enable more effective prosecution of those who should be held to account.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, we are learning now that conflict resolution and stability overseas require new and much more powerful methods of public diplomacy. Does the Minister feel that the budget we have and the balance between the MoD, DfID and the Foreign Office is quite right or should we be thinking about a switch to reinforce somewhat the Foreign and Commonwealth Office’s efforts, budget and developments in the public diplomacy field?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, the building security strategy depends entirely on the interplay between defence, diplomacy and development. It is clear that the Budget addressed that matter but we have ahead of us the comprehensive spending review and, of course, the defence review. Until those discussions are concluded we will not see the final picture.

Iran: Nuclear Deal

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Wednesday 15th July 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, as I mentioned earlier, there are still obstacles in the way of reopening the embassy but we are working very hard on them in discussions with Iran and we hope to reopen it by the end of the year. The noble Lord is right that that will help businesses from around the world, particularly the UK, to operate there. However, businesses are right to be circumspect about how soon they go in and the circumstances under which they can operate. I am sure there will be lot of caution. I think I have already made it clear that we are talking to countries in the area through our posts and also sometimes through ministerial contacts with regard to the implications of this agreement. Clearly, our diplomatic work since last summer with regard to Yemen has been trying to ensure that there is no spillover into what appears at times to be a proxy war.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, while we have no illusions about the continuous malign influence of certain Iranian groups in the Middle East, should we not recognise that if things were to go the other way or this deal were to be blocked, that would probably trigger the opening of a major nuclear arms race in the region? As it is, if this deal holds, can we not look in the other direction and begin to think about a Middle East nuclear weapons-free zone, which has long been the ambition of many? I urge my noble friend to encourage her colleagues to make that a priority for the future despite the obvious difficulties.

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

As always, I listen very carefully to my noble friend. He has great wisdom in this area. I agree with him with regard to the importance of ensuring that an arms race is not started and that blocking this deal could have achieved exactly that. With regard to the Middle East weapons-free zone, I had discussions about this when I was at RevCon in New York a couple of months ago—and I am grateful again to the Opposition for ensuring that I was able to go with their support during that period of purdah. I am afraid that progress was rather disrupted because of Egypt seeking to make it impossible for Israel to take part in those discussions—at least it appeared to try to make that impossible—by saying that if Israel did not turn up on specified dates the whole thing would go ahead without it. There is a lot of difficulty internationally in taking forward the idea of a Middle East weapons-free zone but I agree with my noble friend that we should try to do so.

European Union: Reform

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Monday 6th July 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

It is the nature of parliamentary democracy that the Government outline their plans to Parliament first, and we did, not only as a result of speeches in another place but thereafter, further setting out the details. My right honourable friend the Prime Minister has made it clear, as indeed have those negotiating with him—the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Foreign Secretary—that the four planks of our negotiation are: fairness for those both within and outside the eurozone; changes with regard to immigration so that welfare benefits do not act as an overlarge pull factor and movement is for work not for benefits; sovereignty is an issue. so we must tackle the problem of ever closer union, which may be all right for others but not for us; and competitiveness. We have led the way. We have already achieved advances on this, but for hard-working people in this country we need to improve competitiveness across Europe, including the digital single market. That is it.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

Are reports correct that officials have been working on possible fast-track treaty changes in case Greece leaves the euro but stays in the European Union? If so, would these be under the passerelle procedure set out in the 2011 Bill on the European Union? Would they be wrapped up with the general strategy for European reform, which my right honourable friend the Prime Minister has indeed outlined in very clear direction and which provides a useful basis for major reform in the future, which will involve treaty change?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, with regard to the timing of changes, we have clearly said that the only date that is certain is that by the end of 2017 we will have put to this country a referendum on the deal that has been achieved. With regard to treaty change, my right honourable friend the Prime Minister has made it clear that there are some circumstances in which treaty change would need to be obtained, but he has also made it clear that in advance of any referendum what is needed is a binding, irreversible agreement with all the other states that a treaty change would take place. On that basis, there would need to be an acceleration of treaty change.

EU and Russia (EUC Report)

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Tuesday 24th March 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, it is a very interesting report. I am sorry that I was not on the committee because it sounds as though it would have been rather enjoyable under the skilled chairmanship of my noble friend Lord Tugendhat.

I have four points to add. First, in trying to curb Vladimir Putin’s ambitions and mischief making and the general Russian neurosis and paranoia which seems to prevail in its public opinion, the important starting point has to be that what is going on is a world issue and not only a western issue. Nothing will change decisively unless and until China and the Asian powers are as much engaged as the West professes to be. Of course, the sanctions we have applied and are threatening to apply more of can be hurtful to both sides—indeed, they are proving quite damaging to both sides—but as long as China ignores them there will always be an eastern back door through which Russia can escape and trade.

Putin has made it clear that he relies increasingly heavily on the East. He is working hard for new customers for his gas, for allies in the East—particularly China but other countries as well—and for joint development. He and Gazprom have finalised huge future deals for gas supplies to China and he welcomes proposals from Beijing for the new Silk Road, the Beijing-Moscow high-speed rail link and for a general vast development of links between middle Asia, the Pacific and China. Putin sees Russia not as just a European player—he never did—but as a world power straddling Europe and Asia. He wants near neighbours to play that game as well and to give him the respect that he feels he is due. That is the first point I want to make.

My second point concerns energy. There is only a little about it in the report—I understand why there was not an extensive delving into the complexities of energy—but of course it is a central issue to UK-Ukraine relations and to EU-Russia relations. The dependence on Gazprom, which the report mentions, of the eastern Europeans can be reduced by interconnectors from western Europe, and the current energy union ideas from Brussels are aimed at trying to develop that. However, Europe is always going to be an important customer of Russia, even after interconnector development, greater efficiency and importing more LNG from other countries, including the United States. In any case, Russia is giving up seeing Ukraine as a major transit route. It has shrugged off the South Stream plan, which was to take gas under the Black Sea, and is now connecting into Europe via Turkey on the Asian side of the Bosphorus. Russia plans to sell its gas into Turkey, and through Turkey into Europe that way. This demonstrates that Russia thinks that the unsettled Ukrainian state will continue for a very long time.

My third point is this. Putin will, in the end, be contained—it will be gradual—by other, bigger forces than sanctions. Russian banks need to borrow, but they can no longer do so at the favourable interest rates they could get when they had access to the West. Russia needs a lot more inward investment and trade than it has. The Russian people are connected with the rest of the world as never before at every level of citizenship, from school children upwards. The rouble has collapsed, the stock market has collapsed, and the price of oil has collapsed. All those things will eventually check him, particularly as the price of oil, contrary to many people’s hopes, will stay very low and will not go back to $100 dollars a barrel for a long time.

All these things will shape and put pressure on Putin, but I am not sure that sabre rattling will do so. That is because Russia is playing a very different game on the military side. It believes in “new methods of conflict”. Incursions are never to be central or openly military—that is the new doctrine. The new technique is known as maskirovka, which is not a conventional battlefield where the results can be defined and clear victories won; it is always something that is not what it seems. Russia will stir up minorities and do deals with individual countries, as it is trying to do now with Hungary in seeking to break up the European Union from within and proposing nuclear power, and of course it will take offence at the slightest provocation, as we have seen in the papers this morning over the VE Day celebrations.

Incidentally, talk of “arms to Kiev”, which some have suggested, also raises some curious maskirovka issues. Ukraine is one of the largest manufacturers and exporters of arms in the entire world. In 2012 it was the fourth largest. Ukraine supplies most of Russia’s helicopter engines and half of its nuclear arsenal is built there. So “arms to Kiev” for those who are urging it—like the US Congress calling this morning for lethal weapons to go to Kiev—means that those arms could end up anywhere. Knowing the area, as experts do, they will probably end up in the wrong hands.

To understand Russia today, we have to position ourselves somewhere midway between Kafka and Tolkien: nothing is what it seems. I did have some personal experience of the Magnitsky case, which involved bogus police, bogus tax authorities, bogus courts, bogus judges and bogus company officials who had stolen the identity of the company of Mr Bill Browder, to whom I was an adviser at the time. He set it all out in his fascinating book, Red Notice. All that indicates that fraud, scam and murder are the norm, as we saw so tragically the other day with the murder of Mr Nemtsov just outside the Kremlin.

In the long term, as this excellent report sets out, we have to live with Russia, as do all the other Asian powers. That is probably best done on both an EU and a national bilateral basis because we have to work on both tracks. The EU on its present integrationist path is always going to be a discomfort and irritation to Russia, whereas a less centralised, relaxed and, I hope, reformed EU would obviously be less threatening. Each EU state should feel free to build its own type of relationship with the Russian state and the Russian people.

Finally, the report talks about “sleepwalking” into this situation. I am not sure that that is fair. It is good journalism because of course all the newspapers picked up the phrase, but I am not sure that it is a good analysis. All along, there has been a perfectly clear awareness that Russia was on an uncertain and unpredictable course. It was trying to be a great power again and could not understand why it had lost power, but it was not behaving like a great power. Putin changed course completely. I heard him say in his earlier presidency that he wanted to work very closely with Europe and change the political face of Russia, but the Putin who came back in the second presidency was a completely changed man. It was an event that of course surprised, but it was not a surprise that anyone could have sensibly anticipated, however expert they were and however good their knowledge of Russia. Crimea was no surprise at all. Those of us who have been there know that it is a really beautiful place, but its heart was always with Russia. It was always amazed to find itself part of Ukraine and wanted to go back to Russia.

One does not need to be too much of an expert on a country to sense where it is going. In fact, quite often great reams of experts fail to predict things accurately and get things wrong, although I do not think that the blame game is really necessary. I learnt Russian at school but I do not think it helped me understand less or more the mysteries and the total unpredictability of the Russian trajectory.

There are plenty of surprise events ahead. We heard this morning that one may be coming in Argentina, with the decision of the Russians to supply weapons to Mrs Kirchner. I point your Lordships’ eyes in the direction of Kaliningrad—the old Königsberg, of course—where a huge build-up of Russian troops is taking place as they reinforce their vast naval base there. That is an area where we should be prepared for trouble. There are many difficulties ahead, and we have to use the same subtlety as the maskirovka experts will use against us.

G20: Turkish Presidency

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Monday 23rd March 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, the Budget showed clearly last week that in the jobs-led recovery, which is the achievement of this coalition Government, we have shown the rest of Europe the way in which one can achieve success. It is hard work and takes a long time but that is what we are doing. It means that all parts of society are benefiting, and clearly the Budget set that out word for word.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, does my noble friend think that the Turkish presidency of the G20 will in any way affect its long-standing attempts to join the European Union? Does she not agree that Turkey seems to be getting a bit tired of its constant efforts to make progress negotiating with the European Union in its present form and is seeking a reformed European Union to join? Does she also agree that that could be a basis for our own efforts in this country to seek reforms in the European Union to bring it into the 21st century?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, it is a matter of fact that the Foreign Secretary has been meeting his counterparts throughout Europe to look at ways in which the European Union should be reformed. Reform is needed and he has met a lot of agreement on that. With regard specifically to Turkey, the block on it joining has been self-imposed as well as imposed by other countries. Turkey assures us that it is still very keen to join the European Union. We welcome that. It is the sixth largest economy in Europe. We want it to be a partner. One of the issues that must be resolved before Turkey can do that, and for chapters to be both opened and closed, is Cyprus.

Syria and Iraq: Daesh

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Thursday 19th March 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, I can reassure my noble friend that there was a meeting at the beginning of this year in London at which the coalition of more than 60 countries against ISIL agreed that there should be a small working group. The strategy of the global work is now being refined into a practical system and we have agreed to the formation of five working groups: military operations, foreign fighters, counterfinance, stabilisation support, and countermessaging. The UK is represented on all groups and we are co-chairing the countermessaging group with the UAE and the US. I will be delighted to discuss the detail further with my noble friend, who is right to draw attention to the importance of activity around and in Raqqa by ISIL.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, the Question refers to the “United States-led coalition”, but does my noble friend agree that this is far more than just a western issue and that the great powers such as India and the People’s Republic of China have a major interest, as do all civilised countries, in containing this barbarian infection, which threatens them all? Does she further agree that nations such as Egypt are also closely involved? Does my noble friend therefore accept that the coalition we need to build effectively to contain this horror has to be global rather than purely western? If it is purely western, there will be bad reactions, which we will have to overcome.

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

I entirely agree with my noble friend. That is the very nature that underlines the formation of the five working groups, where non-western countries not only co-chair groups but are prominent members of them.

Ukraine

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Tuesday 10th February 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, it is important that throughout Europe and beyond people do not use any activity to undermine the right of minorities to express their own views or indeed to practise their own faiths. If they do so, whether they be separatists, Ukrainians or any groups in any other European country, they are a gift to any person who wishes to show that they have a right to act. Mr Putin, in particular, would of course seize on an opportunity to point to what he alleges to be Nazism where no Nazism actually exists.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, no one wants to precipitate a wider war in Ukraine—no one sensible, anyway—but my noble friend spoke about technical support to the Kiev government forces and strategic communications equipment. Can she indicate to us whether that includes—or at least does not rule out—the provision of cybertechnology and advanced electronic equipment to neutralise the very sophisticated Russian weaponry that has been supplied to the rebels and the sophisticated communications equipment that is giving them a considerable advantage at the moment?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, I think if I asked I would be advised that it is not a good thing to mention what our cyberactivity might or might not be. Indeed, I have always been informed by other Ministers that Russia has very good methods of its own to find out what other people’s cybercapabilities are. I can say to my noble friend that we have been providing additional support on defence reform and strategic communications. In addition, this year we plan to provide further support, including with regard to logistics. We are actively considering what more we are able to do. I think that is coded language for saying that we are seeing what we can assist with.

All this has to be based around the fact that tomorrow we will see an attempt by our colleagues to come to an agreement in Minsk. Of course, the Normandy format could be extended to others. We have said that that is not the right way forward because it would render it too wide a group, incapable of coming to a negotiated agreement. But the scene is set whereby tomorrow the Normandy format will, we hope, come to proposals which would then be put to the Ukrainians on Thursday. There is a process in place. Underneath all that is a determination to keep the pressure up on Russia. One part of that determination is indeed to ensure that we give what assistance is proper to the Ukrainians.

Yemen

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Wednesday 21st January 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

As the noble Lord will be readily aware, we are working through the Friends of Yemen with a wide variety of actors to try to get back on track with the peace process. Of course, he is right to point to the security problems in the area. We know that Saudi Arabia is a main actor in trying to protect its own borders. He can be assured that our embassy staff work constantly in negotiations with other countries to ensure that cross-border activity is prevented.

The noble Lord has given me the opportunity, for which I am grateful, to pay great tribute to our ambassador in Sana’a, Jane Marriott, and all those who work with her, along with those who travel out of necessity from the FCO to do work there. We advise others not to travel, but some have to in order to keep us safe.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

Could my noble friend illuminate for us, as she usually does, who is on which side in this conflict? I understand that the Houthis are Shiite peoples, which presumably means that they are against ISIS and are backed by Iran. Is that correct? I make one other point. Does not the horrific threat to Japanese citizens by ISIS bring home to us the point that this whole area is not just a western issue, and that we should take constant steps to involve in efforts to keep the peace and sort out the turmoil in these areas the responsible nations—the rising, rich nations of Asia—which are just as much threatened as we are? Are we in close contact with Beijing and Tokyo and the other, rising nations, in solving this problem collectively and globally rather than just as a western issue?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My noble friend is absolutely right. This is a matter for all who want peace throughout the world. Destabilisation in Yemen threatens security in other countries. My noble friend refers to the fact that the Houthis are Shia and my noble friend Lady Falkner was right to point out that it is important that this does not become sectarian. Regardless of religion, AQAP and the Houthis and the Hadis have been combatants against each other. It is important that we work together internationally to prevent further escalation and chaos in Yemen.