Syria

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Tuesday 12th January 2016 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

The noble Lord is right to point to the concern we have had that Russia’s military tactics appear to have been aimed more at keeping Assad in power than at attacking Daesh. I hope that Russia will consider that carefully and aim its attacks on Daesh instead, and that it will use all the levers in its power which it has with the Assad regime to persuade Assad to come to the talks and make sure that his team is engaged in true negotiations about peace in order to achieve a transition process. But the noble Lord is right to point to the difficulties involved.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, can my noble friend tell us what importance and significance the British Government assign to the plan for Saudi Arabia and the GCC countries to form a 34-nation alliance to tackle Daesh? Are we supporting that and, if so, in what way? Can she also say what support we are giving to the Jordanians in their attempt to build a northern buffer zone in Syria and from that to drive into the Daesh heartlands? Is that something which we are also supporting?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, Saudi Arabia has been involved in convening a meeting of all those moderates who have been fighting against Assad’s oppression in Syria. We commend the advances that they have made with regard to that to ensure that there should then be a group of moderates who are able to come to the peace talks. With regard to Jordan, I have to say that it is too soon to be able to give a full answer to my noble friend. However, I will say that talks are progressing on ensuring that there may be a way of having a zone in the north of Jordan which enables those who have fled from Assad’s tyranny to rebuild their lives. But I would not wish to go further than that at this moment. I will do as soon as we are able to confirm details.

Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Thursday 17th December 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, I congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Luce, on promoting the debate and on his excellent opening speech, which speaks for us all and covers many issues.

I declare my interests as president of the Royal Commonwealth Society, which has 70 world branches, and as chairman of the Council of Commonwealth Societies. I am not quite sure how in 180 seconds or fewer your Lordships are going to be able to make their distinctive contributions covering 53 nations, 2.3 billion people and 33 Heads of State. I think that there is something very wrong with a system that places this constraint on us. However, I shall confine myself to three points.

First, the Malta Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting was brilliantly organised by Malta and its very vigorous Prime Minister, Joseph Muscat, and it went extremely well. It got miserable coverage in the British press but that is another matter. It is excellent news that we will have a new Secretary-General who is a Member of this House. She has great talents and an enormous task ahead, which I am confident she will successfully perform.

The Malta meeting was vastly enhanced by the liveliness of the Commonwealth Business Forum, which preceded the Heads of Government meeting. It was organised with huge efficiency and energy by my noble friend Lord Marland. It should be no surprise that this was such a successful affair. Of course we must get our relationship right with the European Union, but the big economic prizes in the future are going to be outside Europe, very largely in the huge new rising markets of the Commonwealth and their neighbouring countries. That is where we have to succeed, or fail.

It is time for us to understand that the nature and rules of the entire world trading system have changed radically, putting us in the position where the markets and interests of the Commonwealth are of enormous significance and importance to this country. The Commonwealth is not just another international institution to be kept happy; it is in fact a huge engine of soft power, trust and, indeed, security. One recent encouraging sign was that that was recognised to some extent in the recently published strategic defence review and in the national security objectives, so there is a dawning understanding of the huge significance of the Commonwealth in our own future and affairs.

However, to the sleepy officials and commentators who still have not quite grasped that point, I end my 180 seconds by echoing what Cicero said to the Roman people. We have heard about Nehru; I now add Cicero into the game. Cicero asked, “How long will you go on being ignorant of your own strength?”. That is the message I would like to send to the policymakers of Whitehall.

Sudan: Human Rights

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Thursday 17th December 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

The noble Baroness has seen at first hand the appalling violence against people in the two areas. I well remember her description of people trying to seek refuge in a dried-up riverbed infested with snakes, and I am aware that the violence now extends to bombing at night as well as by day. I assure the noble Baroness that we will keep our policy under constant review as regards providing assistance to those who wish to go across the border and that we will lobby both sides to allow humanitarian access to all parts of the two areas from within Sudan.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, the Chinese have been very active both in Sudan and in South Sudan in this area, and have taken quite a forward involvement in the policy problems of the area. Have the Government had any liaison with the Chinese authorities, because they seem to have enormous resources which they can apply, particularly in this kind of area, and might be of assistance in solving the problems that the noble Baroness, Lady Cox, rightly raised?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, of course we had the Chinese state visit very recently, during the course of which my right honourable friend the Prime Minister discussed the matter of human rights widely with the Chinese President. So we keep the matter under review. In the first instance we want to ensure that any aid provided is provided within international humanitarian law as well as international law itself.

Daesh in Syria and Iraq

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Wednesday 16th December 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

Does my noble friend accept that I strongly share her welcome for the Islamic military coalition mentioned in the Statement? Will she assure us that we are going to give strong encouragement to that coalition? Does she see it as a possible source of the troops on the ground which eventually will, of course, be needed to penetrate the Daesh heartlands? The noble Lord, Lord Wallace, mentioned Libya in passing. Will my noble friend say a word about how the Government see the Libyan situation, bearing in mind that Daesh is now getting increasingly embedded in Sirte, and is very likely shortly to take over the Libyan oilfields, which would give it a new resource with which to carry on its hideous operations?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, on my noble friend’s first point, we are not considering engaging in land warfare and having our Armed Forces within Syria. When the Leader of the House repeated the Prime Minister’s Statement, she set out why that was the case, so we are not planning for that. My noble friend is absolutely right to draw attention to the very serious position in Libya and the growing threat from extremist groups, including Daesh and groups affiliated with it. These groups pose a threat to the stability of Libya and the region itself, and potentially to the UK and our interests and citizens overseas. We are working closely with international partners to develop our understanding of Daesh’s presence in Libya, including in Sirte, to which my noble friend rightly referred. This includes working closely with Libya’s neighbours to enhance their ability to protect themselves against threats from terrorists in Libya and prevent weapons smuggling across the region. We continue to urge all Libyans to unite against these extremists.

Turkey

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Wednesday 18th November 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, we are sympathetic to all those who die as a result of violent acts of terrorism. Having spent four days last week in Iraq and a day in Turkey talking to the Syrian national coalition and people involved in humanitarian efforts, I was able to express appreciation of what the Turkish Government do. What is produced by way of media emphasis is a matter for the media, but, clearly, it is disappointing if there is not a focus on serious events such as those that the noble Baroness has described—it was a time, of course, when elections were under way throughout Turkey. On the EU-Turkey action plan, which I think is the matter to which the noble Baroness refers, we welcome that action plan, which sets out how the EU and Turkey can increase co-operation to ease the refugee burden on Turkey while preventing further uncontrolled migration to the EU. We work closely within that.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, does my noble friend accept that our bonds with Turkey go even wider than the refugee issues that were rightly raised by the noble Lord, Lord Maginnis? First, Turkey is seeking still to be a member of the European Union, but it is a kind of European Union that needs to be reformed and which is very much in line with our own aims—so we have much common ground there and I hope we are working together on that. Secondly, there is the Cyprus issue, which the noble Lord, Lord Harrison, rightly raised. There is real hope that, with the backing and help of Turkey, we can at last see movement on that issue, which has gone on for 50 years. Thirdly, there is a vast expansion of hydrocarbons in the eastern Mediterranean, in which Turkey has some interest. Again, bearing in mind the interests of the Republic of Cyprus, I think we can help with that. So there is a very big agenda of work to be done with Turkey and I hope it will be encouraged.

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, I think I can simply agree with my noble friend’s analysis.

Building Stability Overseas Strategy

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Thursday 16th July 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, we are strong supporters of the ICC. I visited the court just before Christmas and have maintained negotiations with it since then. We are continually pressing our partners to ensure that it has enough funding—we lead the way on that. I also press the ICC to reform some of its processes to enable more effective prosecution of those who should be held to account.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, we are learning now that conflict resolution and stability overseas require new and much more powerful methods of public diplomacy. Does the Minister feel that the budget we have and the balance between the MoD, DfID and the Foreign Office is quite right or should we be thinking about a switch to reinforce somewhat the Foreign and Commonwealth Office’s efforts, budget and developments in the public diplomacy field?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, the building security strategy depends entirely on the interplay between defence, diplomacy and development. It is clear that the Budget addressed that matter but we have ahead of us the comprehensive spending review and, of course, the defence review. Until those discussions are concluded we will not see the final picture.

Iran: Nuclear Deal

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Wednesday 15th July 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, as I mentioned earlier, there are still obstacles in the way of reopening the embassy but we are working very hard on them in discussions with Iran and we hope to reopen it by the end of the year. The noble Lord is right that that will help businesses from around the world, particularly the UK, to operate there. However, businesses are right to be circumspect about how soon they go in and the circumstances under which they can operate. I am sure there will be lot of caution. I think I have already made it clear that we are talking to countries in the area through our posts and also sometimes through ministerial contacts with regard to the implications of this agreement. Clearly, our diplomatic work since last summer with regard to Yemen has been trying to ensure that there is no spillover into what appears at times to be a proxy war.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, while we have no illusions about the continuous malign influence of certain Iranian groups in the Middle East, should we not recognise that if things were to go the other way or this deal were to be blocked, that would probably trigger the opening of a major nuclear arms race in the region? As it is, if this deal holds, can we not look in the other direction and begin to think about a Middle East nuclear weapons-free zone, which has long been the ambition of many? I urge my noble friend to encourage her colleagues to make that a priority for the future despite the obvious difficulties.

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

As always, I listen very carefully to my noble friend. He has great wisdom in this area. I agree with him with regard to the importance of ensuring that an arms race is not started and that blocking this deal could have achieved exactly that. With regard to the Middle East weapons-free zone, I had discussions about this when I was at RevCon in New York a couple of months ago—and I am grateful again to the Opposition for ensuring that I was able to go with their support during that period of purdah. I am afraid that progress was rather disrupted because of Egypt seeking to make it impossible for Israel to take part in those discussions—at least it appeared to try to make that impossible—by saying that if Israel did not turn up on specified dates the whole thing would go ahead without it. There is a lot of difficulty internationally in taking forward the idea of a Middle East weapons-free zone but I agree with my noble friend that we should try to do so.

European Union: Reform

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Monday 6th July 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

It is the nature of parliamentary democracy that the Government outline their plans to Parliament first, and we did, not only as a result of speeches in another place but thereafter, further setting out the details. My right honourable friend the Prime Minister has made it clear, as indeed have those negotiating with him—the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Foreign Secretary—that the four planks of our negotiation are: fairness for those both within and outside the eurozone; changes with regard to immigration so that welfare benefits do not act as an overlarge pull factor and movement is for work not for benefits; sovereignty is an issue. so we must tackle the problem of ever closer union, which may be all right for others but not for us; and competitiveness. We have led the way. We have already achieved advances on this, but for hard-working people in this country we need to improve competitiveness across Europe, including the digital single market. That is it.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

Are reports correct that officials have been working on possible fast-track treaty changes in case Greece leaves the euro but stays in the European Union? If so, would these be under the passerelle procedure set out in the 2011 Bill on the European Union? Would they be wrapped up with the general strategy for European reform, which my right honourable friend the Prime Minister has indeed outlined in very clear direction and which provides a useful basis for major reform in the future, which will involve treaty change?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, with regard to the timing of changes, we have clearly said that the only date that is certain is that by the end of 2017 we will have put to this country a referendum on the deal that has been achieved. With regard to treaty change, my right honourable friend the Prime Minister has made it clear that there are some circumstances in which treaty change would need to be obtained, but he has also made it clear that in advance of any referendum what is needed is a binding, irreversible agreement with all the other states that a treaty change would take place. On that basis, there would need to be an acceleration of treaty change.

EU and Russia (EUC Report)

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Tuesday 24th March 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, it is a very interesting report. I am sorry that I was not on the committee because it sounds as though it would have been rather enjoyable under the skilled chairmanship of my noble friend Lord Tugendhat.

I have four points to add. First, in trying to curb Vladimir Putin’s ambitions and mischief making and the general Russian neurosis and paranoia which seems to prevail in its public opinion, the important starting point has to be that what is going on is a world issue and not only a western issue. Nothing will change decisively unless and until China and the Asian powers are as much engaged as the West professes to be. Of course, the sanctions we have applied and are threatening to apply more of can be hurtful to both sides—indeed, they are proving quite damaging to both sides—but as long as China ignores them there will always be an eastern back door through which Russia can escape and trade.

Putin has made it clear that he relies increasingly heavily on the East. He is working hard for new customers for his gas, for allies in the East—particularly China but other countries as well—and for joint development. He and Gazprom have finalised huge future deals for gas supplies to China and he welcomes proposals from Beijing for the new Silk Road, the Beijing-Moscow high-speed rail link and for a general vast development of links between middle Asia, the Pacific and China. Putin sees Russia not as just a European player—he never did—but as a world power straddling Europe and Asia. He wants near neighbours to play that game as well and to give him the respect that he feels he is due. That is the first point I want to make.

My second point concerns energy. There is only a little about it in the report—I understand why there was not an extensive delving into the complexities of energy—but of course it is a central issue to UK-Ukraine relations and to EU-Russia relations. The dependence on Gazprom, which the report mentions, of the eastern Europeans can be reduced by interconnectors from western Europe, and the current energy union ideas from Brussels are aimed at trying to develop that. However, Europe is always going to be an important customer of Russia, even after interconnector development, greater efficiency and importing more LNG from other countries, including the United States. In any case, Russia is giving up seeing Ukraine as a major transit route. It has shrugged off the South Stream plan, which was to take gas under the Black Sea, and is now connecting into Europe via Turkey on the Asian side of the Bosphorus. Russia plans to sell its gas into Turkey, and through Turkey into Europe that way. This demonstrates that Russia thinks that the unsettled Ukrainian state will continue for a very long time.

My third point is this. Putin will, in the end, be contained—it will be gradual—by other, bigger forces than sanctions. Russian banks need to borrow, but they can no longer do so at the favourable interest rates they could get when they had access to the West. Russia needs a lot more inward investment and trade than it has. The Russian people are connected with the rest of the world as never before at every level of citizenship, from school children upwards. The rouble has collapsed, the stock market has collapsed, and the price of oil has collapsed. All those things will eventually check him, particularly as the price of oil, contrary to many people’s hopes, will stay very low and will not go back to $100 dollars a barrel for a long time.

All these things will shape and put pressure on Putin, but I am not sure that sabre rattling will do so. That is because Russia is playing a very different game on the military side. It believes in “new methods of conflict”. Incursions are never to be central or openly military—that is the new doctrine. The new technique is known as maskirovka, which is not a conventional battlefield where the results can be defined and clear victories won; it is always something that is not what it seems. Russia will stir up minorities and do deals with individual countries, as it is trying to do now with Hungary in seeking to break up the European Union from within and proposing nuclear power, and of course it will take offence at the slightest provocation, as we have seen in the papers this morning over the VE Day celebrations.

Incidentally, talk of “arms to Kiev”, which some have suggested, also raises some curious maskirovka issues. Ukraine is one of the largest manufacturers and exporters of arms in the entire world. In 2012 it was the fourth largest. Ukraine supplies most of Russia’s helicopter engines and half of its nuclear arsenal is built there. So “arms to Kiev” for those who are urging it—like the US Congress calling this morning for lethal weapons to go to Kiev—means that those arms could end up anywhere. Knowing the area, as experts do, they will probably end up in the wrong hands.

To understand Russia today, we have to position ourselves somewhere midway between Kafka and Tolkien: nothing is what it seems. I did have some personal experience of the Magnitsky case, which involved bogus police, bogus tax authorities, bogus courts, bogus judges and bogus company officials who had stolen the identity of the company of Mr Bill Browder, to whom I was an adviser at the time. He set it all out in his fascinating book, Red Notice. All that indicates that fraud, scam and murder are the norm, as we saw so tragically the other day with the murder of Mr Nemtsov just outside the Kremlin.

In the long term, as this excellent report sets out, we have to live with Russia, as do all the other Asian powers. That is probably best done on both an EU and a national bilateral basis because we have to work on both tracks. The EU on its present integrationist path is always going to be a discomfort and irritation to Russia, whereas a less centralised, relaxed and, I hope, reformed EU would obviously be less threatening. Each EU state should feel free to build its own type of relationship with the Russian state and the Russian people.

Finally, the report talks about “sleepwalking” into this situation. I am not sure that that is fair. It is good journalism because of course all the newspapers picked up the phrase, but I am not sure that it is a good analysis. All along, there has been a perfectly clear awareness that Russia was on an uncertain and unpredictable course. It was trying to be a great power again and could not understand why it had lost power, but it was not behaving like a great power. Putin changed course completely. I heard him say in his earlier presidency that he wanted to work very closely with Europe and change the political face of Russia, but the Putin who came back in the second presidency was a completely changed man. It was an event that of course surprised, but it was not a surprise that anyone could have sensibly anticipated, however expert they were and however good their knowledge of Russia. Crimea was no surprise at all. Those of us who have been there know that it is a really beautiful place, but its heart was always with Russia. It was always amazed to find itself part of Ukraine and wanted to go back to Russia.

One does not need to be too much of an expert on a country to sense where it is going. In fact, quite often great reams of experts fail to predict things accurately and get things wrong, although I do not think that the blame game is really necessary. I learnt Russian at school but I do not think it helped me understand less or more the mysteries and the total unpredictability of the Russian trajectory.

There are plenty of surprise events ahead. We heard this morning that one may be coming in Argentina, with the decision of the Russians to supply weapons to Mrs Kirchner. I point your Lordships’ eyes in the direction of Kaliningrad—the old Königsberg, of course—where a huge build-up of Russian troops is taking place as they reinforce their vast naval base there. That is an area where we should be prepared for trouble. There are many difficulties ahead, and we have to use the same subtlety as the maskirovka experts will use against us.

G20: Turkish Presidency

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Monday 23rd March 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, the Budget showed clearly last week that in the jobs-led recovery, which is the achievement of this coalition Government, we have shown the rest of Europe the way in which one can achieve success. It is hard work and takes a long time but that is what we are doing. It means that all parts of society are benefiting, and clearly the Budget set that out word for word.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, does my noble friend think that the Turkish presidency of the G20 will in any way affect its long-standing attempts to join the European Union? Does she not agree that Turkey seems to be getting a bit tired of its constant efforts to make progress negotiating with the European Union in its present form and is seeking a reformed European Union to join? Does she also agree that that could be a basis for our own efforts in this country to seek reforms in the European Union to bring it into the 21st century?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, it is a matter of fact that the Foreign Secretary has been meeting his counterparts throughout Europe to look at ways in which the European Union should be reformed. Reform is needed and he has met a lot of agreement on that. With regard specifically to Turkey, the block on it joining has been self-imposed as well as imposed by other countries. Turkey assures us that it is still very keen to join the European Union. We welcome that. It is the sixth largest economy in Europe. We want it to be a partner. One of the issues that must be resolved before Turkey can do that, and for chapters to be both opened and closed, is Cyprus.