EU and Russia (EUC Report)

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Tuesday 24th March 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, it is a very interesting report. I am sorry that I was not on the committee because it sounds as though it would have been rather enjoyable under the skilled chairmanship of my noble friend Lord Tugendhat.

I have four points to add. First, in trying to curb Vladimir Putin’s ambitions and mischief making and the general Russian neurosis and paranoia which seems to prevail in its public opinion, the important starting point has to be that what is going on is a world issue and not only a western issue. Nothing will change decisively unless and until China and the Asian powers are as much engaged as the West professes to be. Of course, the sanctions we have applied and are threatening to apply more of can be hurtful to both sides—indeed, they are proving quite damaging to both sides—but as long as China ignores them there will always be an eastern back door through which Russia can escape and trade.

Putin has made it clear that he relies increasingly heavily on the East. He is working hard for new customers for his gas, for allies in the East—particularly China but other countries as well—and for joint development. He and Gazprom have finalised huge future deals for gas supplies to China and he welcomes proposals from Beijing for the new Silk Road, the Beijing-Moscow high-speed rail link and for a general vast development of links between middle Asia, the Pacific and China. Putin sees Russia not as just a European player—he never did—but as a world power straddling Europe and Asia. He wants near neighbours to play that game as well and to give him the respect that he feels he is due. That is the first point I want to make.

My second point concerns energy. There is only a little about it in the report—I understand why there was not an extensive delving into the complexities of energy—but of course it is a central issue to UK-Ukraine relations and to EU-Russia relations. The dependence on Gazprom, which the report mentions, of the eastern Europeans can be reduced by interconnectors from western Europe, and the current energy union ideas from Brussels are aimed at trying to develop that. However, Europe is always going to be an important customer of Russia, even after interconnector development, greater efficiency and importing more LNG from other countries, including the United States. In any case, Russia is giving up seeing Ukraine as a major transit route. It has shrugged off the South Stream plan, which was to take gas under the Black Sea, and is now connecting into Europe via Turkey on the Asian side of the Bosphorus. Russia plans to sell its gas into Turkey, and through Turkey into Europe that way. This demonstrates that Russia thinks that the unsettled Ukrainian state will continue for a very long time.

My third point is this. Putin will, in the end, be contained—it will be gradual—by other, bigger forces than sanctions. Russian banks need to borrow, but they can no longer do so at the favourable interest rates they could get when they had access to the West. Russia needs a lot more inward investment and trade than it has. The Russian people are connected with the rest of the world as never before at every level of citizenship, from school children upwards. The rouble has collapsed, the stock market has collapsed, and the price of oil has collapsed. All those things will eventually check him, particularly as the price of oil, contrary to many people’s hopes, will stay very low and will not go back to $100 dollars a barrel for a long time.

All these things will shape and put pressure on Putin, but I am not sure that sabre rattling will do so. That is because Russia is playing a very different game on the military side. It believes in “new methods of conflict”. Incursions are never to be central or openly military—that is the new doctrine. The new technique is known as maskirovka, which is not a conventional battlefield where the results can be defined and clear victories won; it is always something that is not what it seems. Russia will stir up minorities and do deals with individual countries, as it is trying to do now with Hungary in seeking to break up the European Union from within and proposing nuclear power, and of course it will take offence at the slightest provocation, as we have seen in the papers this morning over the VE Day celebrations.

Incidentally, talk of “arms to Kiev”, which some have suggested, also raises some curious maskirovka issues. Ukraine is one of the largest manufacturers and exporters of arms in the entire world. In 2012 it was the fourth largest. Ukraine supplies most of Russia’s helicopter engines and half of its nuclear arsenal is built there. So “arms to Kiev” for those who are urging it—like the US Congress calling this morning for lethal weapons to go to Kiev—means that those arms could end up anywhere. Knowing the area, as experts do, they will probably end up in the wrong hands.

To understand Russia today, we have to position ourselves somewhere midway between Kafka and Tolkien: nothing is what it seems. I did have some personal experience of the Magnitsky case, which involved bogus police, bogus tax authorities, bogus courts, bogus judges and bogus company officials who had stolen the identity of the company of Mr Bill Browder, to whom I was an adviser at the time. He set it all out in his fascinating book, Red Notice. All that indicates that fraud, scam and murder are the norm, as we saw so tragically the other day with the murder of Mr Nemtsov just outside the Kremlin.

In the long term, as this excellent report sets out, we have to live with Russia, as do all the other Asian powers. That is probably best done on both an EU and a national bilateral basis because we have to work on both tracks. The EU on its present integrationist path is always going to be a discomfort and irritation to Russia, whereas a less centralised, relaxed and, I hope, reformed EU would obviously be less threatening. Each EU state should feel free to build its own type of relationship with the Russian state and the Russian people.

Finally, the report talks about “sleepwalking” into this situation. I am not sure that that is fair. It is good journalism because of course all the newspapers picked up the phrase, but I am not sure that it is a good analysis. All along, there has been a perfectly clear awareness that Russia was on an uncertain and unpredictable course. It was trying to be a great power again and could not understand why it had lost power, but it was not behaving like a great power. Putin changed course completely. I heard him say in his earlier presidency that he wanted to work very closely with Europe and change the political face of Russia, but the Putin who came back in the second presidency was a completely changed man. It was an event that of course surprised, but it was not a surprise that anyone could have sensibly anticipated, however expert they were and however good their knowledge of Russia. Crimea was no surprise at all. Those of us who have been there know that it is a really beautiful place, but its heart was always with Russia. It was always amazed to find itself part of Ukraine and wanted to go back to Russia.

One does not need to be too much of an expert on a country to sense where it is going. In fact, quite often great reams of experts fail to predict things accurately and get things wrong, although I do not think that the blame game is really necessary. I learnt Russian at school but I do not think it helped me understand less or more the mysteries and the total unpredictability of the Russian trajectory.

There are plenty of surprise events ahead. We heard this morning that one may be coming in Argentina, with the decision of the Russians to supply weapons to Mrs Kirchner. I point your Lordships’ eyes in the direction of Kaliningrad—the old Königsberg, of course—where a huge build-up of Russian troops is taking place as they reinforce their vast naval base there. That is an area where we should be prepared for trouble. There are many difficulties ahead, and we have to use the same subtlety as the maskirovka experts will use against us.

G20: Turkish Presidency

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Monday 23rd March 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, the Budget showed clearly last week that in the jobs-led recovery, which is the achievement of this coalition Government, we have shown the rest of Europe the way in which one can achieve success. It is hard work and takes a long time but that is what we are doing. It means that all parts of society are benefiting, and clearly the Budget set that out word for word.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, does my noble friend think that the Turkish presidency of the G20 will in any way affect its long-standing attempts to join the European Union? Does she not agree that Turkey seems to be getting a bit tired of its constant efforts to make progress negotiating with the European Union in its present form and is seeking a reformed European Union to join? Does she also agree that that could be a basis for our own efforts in this country to seek reforms in the European Union to bring it into the 21st century?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, it is a matter of fact that the Foreign Secretary has been meeting his counterparts throughout Europe to look at ways in which the European Union should be reformed. Reform is needed and he has met a lot of agreement on that. With regard specifically to Turkey, the block on it joining has been self-imposed as well as imposed by other countries. Turkey assures us that it is still very keen to join the European Union. We welcome that. It is the sixth largest economy in Europe. We want it to be a partner. One of the issues that must be resolved before Turkey can do that, and for chapters to be both opened and closed, is Cyprus.

Syria and Iraq: Daesh

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Thursday 19th March 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, I can reassure my noble friend that there was a meeting at the beginning of this year in London at which the coalition of more than 60 countries against ISIL agreed that there should be a small working group. The strategy of the global work is now being refined into a practical system and we have agreed to the formation of five working groups: military operations, foreign fighters, counterfinance, stabilisation support, and countermessaging. The UK is represented on all groups and we are co-chairing the countermessaging group with the UAE and the US. I will be delighted to discuss the detail further with my noble friend, who is right to draw attention to the importance of activity around and in Raqqa by ISIL.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, the Question refers to the “United States-led coalition”, but does my noble friend agree that this is far more than just a western issue and that the great powers such as India and the People’s Republic of China have a major interest, as do all civilised countries, in containing this barbarian infection, which threatens them all? Does she further agree that nations such as Egypt are also closely involved? Does my noble friend therefore accept that the coalition we need to build effectively to contain this horror has to be global rather than purely western? If it is purely western, there will be bad reactions, which we will have to overcome.

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

I entirely agree with my noble friend. That is the very nature that underlines the formation of the five working groups, where non-western countries not only co-chair groups but are prominent members of them.

Ukraine

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Tuesday 10th February 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, it is important that throughout Europe and beyond people do not use any activity to undermine the right of minorities to express their own views or indeed to practise their own faiths. If they do so, whether they be separatists, Ukrainians or any groups in any other European country, they are a gift to any person who wishes to show that they have a right to act. Mr Putin, in particular, would of course seize on an opportunity to point to what he alleges to be Nazism where no Nazism actually exists.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, no one wants to precipitate a wider war in Ukraine—no one sensible, anyway—but my noble friend spoke about technical support to the Kiev government forces and strategic communications equipment. Can she indicate to us whether that includes—or at least does not rule out—the provision of cybertechnology and advanced electronic equipment to neutralise the very sophisticated Russian weaponry that has been supplied to the rebels and the sophisticated communications equipment that is giving them a considerable advantage at the moment?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, I think if I asked I would be advised that it is not a good thing to mention what our cyberactivity might or might not be. Indeed, I have always been informed by other Ministers that Russia has very good methods of its own to find out what other people’s cybercapabilities are. I can say to my noble friend that we have been providing additional support on defence reform and strategic communications. In addition, this year we plan to provide further support, including with regard to logistics. We are actively considering what more we are able to do. I think that is coded language for saying that we are seeing what we can assist with.

All this has to be based around the fact that tomorrow we will see an attempt by our colleagues to come to an agreement in Minsk. Of course, the Normandy format could be extended to others. We have said that that is not the right way forward because it would render it too wide a group, incapable of coming to a negotiated agreement. But the scene is set whereby tomorrow the Normandy format will, we hope, come to proposals which would then be put to the Ukrainians on Thursday. There is a process in place. Underneath all that is a determination to keep the pressure up on Russia. One part of that determination is indeed to ensure that we give what assistance is proper to the Ukrainians.

Yemen

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Wednesday 21st January 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

As the noble Lord will be readily aware, we are working through the Friends of Yemen with a wide variety of actors to try to get back on track with the peace process. Of course, he is right to point to the security problems in the area. We know that Saudi Arabia is a main actor in trying to protect its own borders. He can be assured that our embassy staff work constantly in negotiations with other countries to ensure that cross-border activity is prevented.

The noble Lord has given me the opportunity, for which I am grateful, to pay great tribute to our ambassador in Sana’a, Jane Marriott, and all those who work with her, along with those who travel out of necessity from the FCO to do work there. We advise others not to travel, but some have to in order to keep us safe.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

Could my noble friend illuminate for us, as she usually does, who is on which side in this conflict? I understand that the Houthis are Shiite peoples, which presumably means that they are against ISIS and are backed by Iran. Is that correct? I make one other point. Does not the horrific threat to Japanese citizens by ISIS bring home to us the point that this whole area is not just a western issue, and that we should take constant steps to involve in efforts to keep the peace and sort out the turmoil in these areas the responsible nations—the rising, rich nations of Asia—which are just as much threatened as we are? Are we in close contact with Beijing and Tokyo and the other, rising nations, in solving this problem collectively and globally rather than just as a western issue?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My noble friend is absolutely right. This is a matter for all who want peace throughout the world. Destabilisation in Yemen threatens security in other countries. My noble friend refers to the fact that the Houthis are Shia and my noble friend Lady Falkner was right to point out that it is important that this does not become sectarian. Regardless of religion, AQAP and the Houthis and the Hadis have been combatants against each other. It is important that we work together internationally to prevent further escalation and chaos in Yemen.

Ukraine

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Thursday 8th January 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, just as “General Winter” did for Napoleon in Russia, is there not a good chance that “General Oil Price” will do the same for Vladimir Putin?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My noble friend is far more expert in matters of energy and oil prices, but we have all noticed the drop in the oil price to below $50 a barrel, which is having a severe effect on the Russian economy. However, certainly as far as Mr Putin is concerned, with regard to Ukraine there is a straightforward answer to achieving the relaxation of sanctions, which is to abide by the Minsk protocol and to remove his troops from a sovereign state.

Trade Balance

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Thursday 11th December 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, my noble friend has reminded us that this country is a huge exporter of services—I think he said that we are the second biggest in the world. That will increase more and more as information and data will play the key role rather than actual physical products. Free trade in services is what we have not got—particularly in Europe but throughout the world. Will my noble friend reassure us that huge efforts will be made to free up the service trade so that our exports can prosper even more in the future?

[Lord Livingston of Parkhead]

I certainly confirm that that is a key priority: both extending the single market to services, which we are pushing for in the EU, and the trade and services agreement, which is a plurilateral agreement between many countries. The UK is championing that. As such a large producer of services, we certainly support both those measures to increase trade.

Iran Nuclear Talks

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Tuesday 25th November 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, I agree entirely with the noble Lord, Lord Reid, and the emphasis that he places on the prize that is to be gained by having Iran return to normalisation in its relationships. The very fact of Iran being received back into the family of nations is also the prize to be seized by the rest of the world, not only in the region but elsewhere. Of course I also recognise what the noble Lord says about the noble Baroness, Lady Ashton, who has performed a great role within the EU and on the international stage. Perhaps I may take the opportunity, in answering his question, to say that in my enthusiasm when referring to the appearance on television of Mr Netanyahu last night, I suddenly signed Israel up as a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. That would certainly have surprised Israel, as it should have surprised me. Israel is not a signatory to the treaty.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, the Statement inevitably focuses somewhat narrowly on the nuclear deal, but there are those—I am one of them and I think that the noble Lord, Lord Reid of Cardowan, may be another—who believe that the more that future negotiations can open up the wider issues, including Iran’s possibly more constructive role in stabilising the chaos across the whole region and in general in the international landscape, the more likely it is that the development of those negotiations will proceed and succeed. Can my noble friend give a hint as to whether the future negotiations will go a bit wider than just “the deal”, as it seems to be called?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, we are not in a position where we can call it “the deal”, because we are working towards it. In a sense, the gap has been narrowed because we have been able to identify some areas where we may be able to resolve matters, but there still remains a core area that has not been resolved. It is a prize worth seeking and it can be sought —indeed, with encouragement we may get there—but I would not wish to say that we are at the stage where it is so resolved that we can think of next steps. My noble friend is absolutely right to draw attention to the role currently played by Iran in the region—it has been alluded to in this House and elsewhere—and the role for peace that it might play in the future. It could indeed play a constructive role. We welcome the support that the Iranian Government have given to the new Government of Iraq and their efforts to promote a more inclusive governance for all Iraqis, but a similar approach is needed in Syria, where Iran can and must play a constructive role. All these discussions will continue in tandem, I am sure, with what for us is the core issue today, which is to proceed with negotiations so that we can be in a position to achieve a political framework by the end of four months and by the end of seven to have a deal that is good for all.

EU: UK Membership

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Tuesday 25th November 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, although the noble Lord, Lord Liddle, has just launched a number of sharp and critical arrows at the coalition Government and the Prime Minister—indeed, one might say a few howitzer shells—I am, in a strange sense, heartened by the way the debate on the European Union and Britain’s position in it is going. I believe that underneath a great deal of the rhetoric and partisan exchanges there is a clustering of opinion around the concept of reform of the European Union, of which Britain’s relations with the rest of the European Union is a part—it is certainly a part, but it is only a part. Indeed, official policy of the coalition Government is “renegotiation with a reformed Europe”. My question for all of us to ponder is: how is that reformed Europe going to come about that we can negotiate with?

If I have reservations, they are these. First, it seems to me extremely important that we should get away from the idea that negotiations will be purely bilateral between the UK and Brussels, with maybe one or two side discussions with individual member states. The issues being raised are far from being ones on which Britain is isolated. The smart pro-European think tanks are quite wrong in asserting all the time that there is no appetite for reform of the European Union around the rest of Europe. There is, it is very considerable and it was expressed at the European parliamentary elections with great vigour. It is not true that the whole political class in Europe is against all reform and regards Britain’s demands as eccentric and separate.

Secondly, to do that, we have to build up alliances very strongly. I would like to see much more of that diplomacy going on, so that we can focus on the fact that even the red-hot topic of immigration, which the noble Lord, Lord Liddle, mentioned, is not a uniquely UK issue. Almost every country throughout Europe—even the countries losing migrants—is concerned about the effects of the totally free movement of labour doctrine applied to the modern Europe, which is quite different from the one in which it was originally formulated.

Thirdly, it seems to me that if negotiation with a reformed Europe is the aim, the reform part of it should, in a sense, come first or certainly go very closely with the negotiation. We could otherwise end up finding ourselves negotiating—as we did yesterday—with a changing body: something that does not exist anymore and is being changed before our eyes.

Fourthly—and I think many people throughout Europe recognise this—we must address the fundamental issues. Even the former president of France, Nicolas Sarkozy, who I gather wants to be president again, said the other day that, unless 50% of the competencies of the European Union are returned to the nation states, the system will explode. He is just one voice among many who recognise that the system is overcentralised; it is an EU model for the 20th century and we are in the 21st. New technologies are challenging the very nature of the single market through new supply chains, global value chains. All kinds of new technologies—machine-to-machine, digital fabrication and so on—are changing the nature of trade totally, and therefore the nature in which the single market has to work. Thirdly, unemployment throughout the eurozone is much too high. Fourthly, there is the chronic euro problem, which is by no means solved. It is currently a dilemma between those in Germany who want a unified political system to run the euro and those, also in Germany, who do not want to pay for it. That is far from being resolved.

We are told that there cannot be any treaty change to meet those fundamental needs, but I say to your Lordships that treaty change is inevitable and that, in due course, a new intergovernmental conference will have to be convened. I hear that view coming from all quarters. I have even heard it from the excellent think tank that the noble Lord, Lord Liddle, operates in, the Policy Network, which has called for change in the treaty. I hear it from my good friends behind me, the Liberal Democrats. The noble Lord, Lord Maclennan of Rogart, said that he wants to see some kind of gathering to examine the fundamental role of things. I even hear it from very strong Europe builders such as Herr Schäuble, who says that we have to revisit the whole configuration, architecture and constitution of Europe. I hear the call for reform from all sides.

To my mind, that task is what the best brains, the diplomats and those outside government, in business, should concentrate on—disregarding Brexit and all that nonsense and bringing the 20th century European model into the 21st century. The best brains of Europe should be concentrated on that task.

EU: Reform

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Wednesday 19th November 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, I admire Sir John Major. I know the work he did as Prime Minister and within European matters, and the struggles that he faced. He above all people knows what is involved. I agree with what he said, which was that our future is within a reformed European Union. The Prime Minister David Cameron has said that, too.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

Does my noble friend agree that successful and fundamental EU reform, which is badly needed, requires two things: first, a very strong alliance of the peoples and the Governments of the European Union, many of whom are longing for really radical reform to bring the EU into the 21st century and, secondly, a deeply thought-out strategy for the kind of EU model we need to work in the 21st century, which is at present lacking? Will she assure us that at the highest level these matters are being given very strong attention and are being pursued vigorously?