Spring Statement

Mel Stride Excerpts

Wednesday 26th March 2025 Commons Chamber

[Mel Stride (Central Devon) (Con)]

At the last Budget, the right hon. Lady said that she would bring stability to the public finances, but this statement, more appropriately referred to as an emergency Budget, has brought her to a cold—[Interruption.]

[Mr Speaker]

Order. Rightly, I wanted to hear the Chancellor, and I now want to hear the shadow Chancellor. [Interruption.] I do not need any help.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mel Stride]

This emergency Budget has brought the right hon. Lady to a cold hard reckoning. She has become fond recently of talking about the world having changed, and indeed it has. This country was growing at the fastest rate in the G7 only about a year ago. Just as the OECD, the Bank of England and other forecasters—including, we learn today, the OBR—have stated, growth has been halved for this year. It has been cut in two as a consequence of the decisions and the choices that the right hon. Lady has made on her watch. Inflation was down to 2%—bang on target—under a Conservative Government on the very day of the last general election. We are now told that this year we will be running at twice the level as was forecast under us in 2024. That will mean prices bearing down on households and on businesses right across the country, because of her choices.

The OBR also says that unemployment will be rising this year, next year and the year after. In fact, across the forecast period it will not decline at all. So much for the right hon. Lady’s back to work plans. We have already seen what it means when it comes to controlling borrowing under this Chancellor. She has come forward now with a plan to squeeze spending later on in the forecast period, and she has of course told the OBR that these are the elements of spending restraint to which she will stick, but what do the markets think? Given her track record, and the fact that she has failed to control spending and borrowing to date, what does the right hon. Lady think the markets will make of her latest promises?

Of course, the right hon. Lady says that none of this is her fault. It is the war in Ukraine, it is President Trump; it is tariffs; it is President Putin; it is the Conservatives; it is her legacy; it is anyone but her. What the British people know, however, is that this is a consequence of her choices. She is the architect of her own misfortune. It was the right hon. Lady who talked down the economy so that business surveys and confidence crashed through the floor. It was the right hon. Lady who confected the £22 billion black hole, a smokescreen that was only ever there to cover up for the fact that she and the Prime Minister reneged on their promises to the British people during the last general election, and a black hole that the Office for Budget Responsibility itself—ironically, at the Government’s behest—has said it will not legitimise. She chose to be reckless with a sliver of headroom against her fiddled targets. She borrowed and spent and taxed as if it were the 1970s. Little wonder that the Chancellor has tanked the economy, little wonder that we have an emergency Budget, all because of her choices.

The Chancellor likes to tour the television studios and tell everyone that they should be thankful that she will not be ramping up taxes in this emergency Budget as she did before, but that will be cold comfort to the millions up and down the country who are waiting in fear and trepidation for the start of the new tax year, buckling under the burden of tax that will rise to the highest tax burden—on her watch—in the history of our country. May I ask the right hon. Lady whether, when she replies, she will give that much-needed reassurance, particularly to businesses, that she will not be ramping up taxes still further in the autumn? Even a basic economist knows that if you tax something, you get less of it. You do not need to have worked at the Bank of England for 10 years to know that.

So what did the Chancellor tax? She taxed jobs and wealth creation. She has destroyed livelihoods. Businesses have been clobbered, big and small—small companies, the backbone of our economy—and enterprise has been crushed on the altar of her ineptitude. The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development has told us that a third of the businesses affected will shed labour, with Morrisons losing 200 jobs, Tesco 400, and Sainsbury’s 3,000. No wonder the Federation of Small Businesses has said that outside the pandemic, business confidence has been left at its lowest level on record. However, it is not just businesses. It is charities, it is GPs, it is pharmacies, it is those who transport children with special educational needs, and it is hospices caring for the sick and the dying. In this House, the Labour party had the opportunity, yesterday and last week, to stop that, but they voted our amendments down, and we will never let their constituents forget it.

If you ramp up taxes, Mr Speaker, and if you ramp up borrowing and spending without any commensurate improvement in productivity, it leads to growing inflation, and inflation has been increasing on this Government’s watch. It means that interest rates stay higher for longer. The Chancellor has just trumpeted the fact that there have been three interest rate cuts since the Labour party came to office. She knows full well that there would have been more than that had she managed—[Interruption.] She knows full well that interest rates are higher for longer because of the choices that she made. This has led to servicing costs for our national debt running at twice the defence budget, and today we have learnt from the OBR that debt interest is to increase still further—and none of this money will be spent on public services. It will be going down the drain.

The real black hole is not the one that the Chancellor invented; it is the one that the Chancellor created. Is not the central problem that this Chancellor is a gambler? Even with her fiddled fiscal targets, she left way too little headroom. Is not the truth that while the right hon. Lady said of the last Budget that it was a

“once-in-a-parliament reset”,

she rolled the dice on a wafer-thin margin, and she lost? Reckless, with her fingers crossed, she fiddled the targets and she missed them. [Interruption.]

[Mr Speaker]

Order. I am not sure about the language being used. I think there are better and more constructive words that the shadow Chancellor would prefer to use in future.

[Mel Stride]

May I just point out that all the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom disappeared, not just some of it? In fact, she went underwater to the tune of £4.1 billion. Reeling from one fiscal event to the next is not a way to run the public finances, and breaking your fiscal rules to the extent that the right hon. Lady has in just six months is a public humiliation.

May I now focus briefly on defence spending? We on this side of the House welcome the fact that the Government will reach 2.5% of GDP by 2027, as we pressed them to do, and we note the stepping stone along the way that the right hon. Lady has just announced, but we should go further than that. The 3% target should be brought forward to this Parliament. So may I ask the right hon. Lady: given the geopolitical tensions that she has raised, what provision she has made in her headroom, in her fiscal plans, for increasing defence spending more quickly in this Parliament, if that proves necessary? May I also ask her this: would she scrap the absurd Chagos deal, and put that money behind our armed forces?

The economy is in a perilous state, but there was a different way. There were different choices on taxing and spending and borrowing, and on productivity, and on welfare. Let me just say a few words about welfare. It was the privilege of my life to serve as the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, and when it came to welfare reform, with that privilege came a deep responsibility: the responsibility for welfare reform to be properly thought through, with a very clear plan—[Interruption]—I know that Labour Members do not like it, because it is an alien idea to their party—so that we could be fair to the taxpayer, but equally fair to the many people up and down the country, some of whom are highly vulnerable. That was an approach, on our watch, that led to £5 million of savings across the forecast period, and 450,000 fewer people going on to long-term sickness and disability benefits as a direct consequence.

We would have gone further—much further—and we set out a clear plan in our manifesto to do exactly that, but those in the party opposite rushed their changes. They had no plan. There was not a single mention of the personal independence payment in the Labour party manifesto, and when they got into office, the Labour Government pussyfooted around and dithered. Why? Because it is deeply divisive within their rank and file. Then suddenly, when the Chancellor decided that she had run out of money, out went the word to find some savings in welfare, to scrabble around, to yank every lever possible.

Then there was the spectacle, frankly, of what the OBR has said about the simply shambolic changes that were announced only last week by the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions. We have gone from incompetence to chaos. There have been more changes to this policy than there were at the last minute to the right hon. Lady’s LinkedIn profile. The result is the worst of all worlds: a wholly inadequate level of savings on welfare, with welfare costs spiralling ever higher, and changes that are likely to harm many vulnerable people. May I ask the right hon. Lady: when the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions came to the House last week with these changes, she did not provide an impact assessment, but was this because the OBR had not signed off the numbers, was it because the Department did not have enough time to produce one, or was it only provided today, as many of us suspect, because this was thought to be a good time to bury bad news?

The forecast for growth is down, the forecasts for borrowing costs and inflation are up, and business confidence has been smashed into a million pieces. This Chancellor is constantly trying to blame forces beyond her control. The right response is not to duck responsibility, but to build a resilient economy. The right hon. Lady would have us believe that that is what she is doing, but how can we believe this Chancellor? How can we trust this Chancellor? She is the Chancellor who said she would not increase borrowing, but she did. She said she would not change her fiscal rules, but she did. She said she would not put up national insurance, but she did. She said she would not cut the winter fuel payment, but she did. She said she would not tax farmers, but she did, and she said she would not move to more than one fiscal event a year, and she just has. Now we are all paying the price of her broken promises. Today’s numbers confirm it. We are poorer and we are weaker. To govern is to choose, and this Chancellor has made all the wrong choices.

[Rachel Reeves]

I know that the shadow Chancellor has not been in his role for very long, but at least he is not misquoting Shakespeare today. If this was a Budget, it would be the Leader of the Opposition responding. I am glad that she is still in her place, but I know she will want to get back to her office for a lunchtime steak soon.

The right hon. Gentleman talks about Budgets. Let me remind the Conservative party that the only emergency Budget we have seen in recent years was in response to their party’s disastrous mini-Budget—a mini-Budget that crashed the economy, sent mortgage bills spiralling and left a £22 billion black hole in our nation’s finances. Conservative Members may have forgotten about the damage that they did to our country, but the British people never will.

As always, the shadow Chancellor talked a lot, but he did not offer a single alternative. He says he opposes our tax rises, but he cannot tell us whether he would cut the NHS to reverse them. He says he wants economic growth, but Conservative Members abstained on the very planning reforms that the OBR has said will kick-start growth. Mr Speaker, you do not change the country by abstaining or by sitting on the fence; you change the country by leading and by taking action, and that is what this Government are doing. The shadow Chancellor says he wants businesses to trade, but he does not want us to talk to the second largest economy in the world or, indeed, our biggest trading partners in the European Union. He simply is not serious. Four months into the job, and he has got no clue.

The right hon. Gentleman wants to talk about growth, but he does not say anything about the fact that the OBR has upgraded growth next year and every single year after. He talks about pensioners, but he forgets that it is his party’s policy to scrap the triple lock, which we are protecting and which will mean the state pension rising next month by over £400. He talks about wages, but he forgets the fact that we are boosting wages by boosting the national living wage from next month. The shadow Chancellor says nothing about living standards or this morning’s fall in inflation, because the last Parliament was the worst on record, and the OBR has today revised up its forecast for family finances. Working people are always better off with Labour.

The right hon. Gentleman is learning something, because at least this time he has asked a couple of questions, so let me respond to them. He asked what the markets should make of this. What the markets should see is that, when I have been tested with a deterioration in the headroom, we have restored that headroom in full. That is one of the choices that I made. He says that it is a sliver of a headroom. Well, it is 50% more headroom than I inherited from the Conservative party. When I was left with a sliver of headroom, I rebuilt it after the last Government eroded it. That is the difference that we have made. While they left the public finances and the public services in a mess, we wiped the slate clean, which means that we have the flexibility now to increase defence spending, as the leader of the Labour party has done. The Conservatives had 14 years to increase defence spending, and now they lately come to the party.

The shadow Chancellor mentions welfare reform and his time at the Department for Work and Pensions. What a legacy: one in eight young people not in education, employment or training, and 1,000 people a day going on to personal independence payments. The OBR says today that welfare spending as a share of GDP will now start falling—a far cry from what we had under the Conservative party. The shadow Chancellor speaks about employment. The OBR says that employment will increase, that wages will increase and that living standards will increase. What a change, after 14 years of the Conservative party.

The world is changing, and no one can be in any doubt about it, but the Conservative party is stuck in the past—divided, out of touch and carping from the sidelines. Conservative Members have no plan: no plan to kick-start growth, no plan to fix our public services and no plan to keep our country safe. The only plan for change they are working on is a plan to change their party leader, and we cannot blame them for that.

If the Opposition have no plan, let me remind them about ours. The minimum wage up, real wages up, house building up, NHS investment up, investment in our schools up, investment in our roads up, defence spending up—and every single one of those policies is opposed by the party opposite. They are opposed by the Conservatives, opposed by Reform, opposed by the SNP, opposed by the Liberal Democrats and opposed by the Greens. It is the anti-growth coalition in action. They are the blockers. We are the builders—securing Britain’s future, protecting working people and delivering change.

Oral Answers to Questions

Mel Stride Excerpts

Tuesday 4th March 2025 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

I call the shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer.

[Mel Stride (Central Devon) (Con)]

How many jobs will the right hon. Lady destroy as a result of her jobs tax?

[Rachel Reeves]

I know that the right hon. Gentleman will have looked at the OBR forecast from the Budget last year, which forecasted that employment will rise in this Parliament, unemployment will fall and real household disposable income will increase. That is a far cry from the last Parliament, which was the worst on record for living standards.

[Mel Stride]

I am surprised that the right hon. Lady did not reference the fact that the OBR also said that there would be 50,000 fewer jobs as a result of the NICs increase; indeed, Bloomberg put that figure at 130,000 jobs. It does not need to be that way. On 26 March, the right hon. Lady should come to this House with a spring statement containing a clear plan around welfare savings, which we had when we were in Government. Will she now confirm that she is prepared to do that with our support and put an end to the pernicious tax increase?

[Rachel Reeves]

The right hon. Gentleman and his party had 14 years to reform the welfare system. They failed to do so, but this Government will. We are turning the British economy round after the disaster left to us by the previous Government: three cuts in interest rates since the general election, real wages rising at their fastest rate for three years, fuel duty frozen, the payslips of working people protected, and millions getting a pay rise through an increase in the national living wage. That is the change that this Government are delivering; that is the change that the Opposition are blocking.

Family Businesses

Mel Stride Excerpts

Wednesday 26th February 2025 Commons Chamber

[Mel Stride (Central Devon) (Con)]

I beg to move,

That this House regrets the Government’s decision to introduce a cap on Business Property Relief, meaning that some family businesses passed down upon death will face Inheritance Tax for the first time in 50 years; further regrets the Government’s other economic policies that will damage family businesses, namely raising employers’ National Insurance contributions, reductions to business rates relief, making employers potentially liable for third-party harassment, the powers in the Product Regulation and Metrology Bill [Lords] that would allow the Government to ban pubs from selling pints, and the provisions in the Employment Rights Bill for guaranteed hours which will make flexible working harder to achieve; and therefore calls on the Government to support family businesses which provide employment for almost 14 million people, and contribute more than £200 billion in taxes each year, by lifting the cap on Business Property Relief, not implementing the increases to employers’ National Insurance contributions and business rates, and powers to change units of measurement, and to stop the progress of the damaging Employment Rights Bill.

At the last general election, the Labour party—now the Government—told us that it aspired to become the natural party of business, which is an absurd suggestion given what has happened over the past seven short months. It is as absurd perhaps as the Business Secretary claiming to be a qualified lawyer, as absurd perhaps as the Attorney General claiming to be a patriotic lawyer, or as absurd perhaps as the Prime Minister claiming to be anything other than a lawyer. The economy has tanked. Inflation recently spiked at 3%, and it is to go still higher; it was 2% on the day of the general election, a legacy that we bequeathed to the Labour party. Borrowing is up—substantially up—on the forecasts that the Office for Budget Responsibility produced at the last Budget, and growth has been killed stone dead. The Bank of England tells us that the economy will grow at half the rate it had originally suggested.

It is no wonder that all the business confidence surveys show confidence crashing through the floor as a result of what this Government are doing. Businesses are laying off jobs, businesses are putting up prices, businesses are reducing investment, and businesses are sometimes having to put themselves up for sale or, even worse, are going under.

[Wendy Morton (Aldridge-Brownhills) (Con)]

On that specific point, a local businessman wrote to me:

“I have spent over 50 years building my engineering business from the ground up, only to now face the possibility that my life’s work could be dismantled due to an unfair tax burden.”

Why on earth would anybody want to start a business in the current climate, which has been created by the Government?

--- Later in debate ---

[Mel Stride]

My right hon. Friend is absolutely right, and we see that in the surveys to which I referred; business confidence is at virtually an all-time low.

Before this whirlwind of disaster visited us, we had a calmer time during the general election. It was a Labour party on best behaviour with business, a Labour party with a manifesto that sought to reassure business—indeed, it explicitly ruled out the possibility of an increase in national insurance—and a Labour party on the prawn cocktail circuit, countenancing canapés and calm, with the breathy seduction of the former shadow Chancellor and the now Business Secretary hopping about in the background dispensing free legal advice to whoever cared to listen. With Labour, everything seemed possible; business would be safe in its tender hands—but it was not. Trust was destroyed, and the wrong decisions were taken. Why? Because those on the Government Front Bench have not a jot of real-world business experience. In fact, fewer than half of those around the Cabinet table have any experience in the private sector whatsoever. Far from being the natural party of business, this is the most anti-business Government in modern political history.

Surveys by the British Chambers of Commerce show that tax is now the No. 1 concern of businesses. According to the Federation of Small Businesses, in the last quarter of last year, business confidence hit the lowest level ever recorded in its surveys, save for the pandemic. It is almost as if the only way that small businesses are created today is through the shrinkage of larger ones.

Firms are being crushed by the wrong policies. Take the national insurance measure, which, despite having not yet commenced—it comes in in April—is already driving down employment and driving up prices and inflation. It is a ticking tax time bomb waiting to go off in early April. It will affect the lowest paid the hardest, with those in part-time work bearing the brunt of this measure, and it will impact those in labour-intensive sectors. UKHospitality found that three quarters of a million more jobs will be subject to national insurance as a direct effect of this Government’s plans. According to Young’s, the brewer, the policy will add an extra 20p to the price of a pint.

[Andrew Lewin (Welwyn Hatfield) (Lab)]

I am pleased that the right hon. Gentleman has expressed concern for people on lower wages, and I hope he will therefore welcome the decision announced at the Dispatch Box by this Labour Government to increase the living wage by 6.7% from April.

[Mel Stride]

As the party that increased the personal allowance, doubling it between 2010 and the present day, taking millions of people out of tax altogether, and that brought in the national living wage, we have done a great deal to support the lowest paid in our society in particular.

[Dr Luke Evans (Hinckley and Bosworth) (Con)]

The point is about the culmination of all the changes the Labour Government have brought in. This Government have indeed raised national insurance, and may need to do so again in future. However, the key point is what the ramifications of all these changes will be—the living wage change, the cuts to business rate relief, the red tape being introduced with the Employment Rights Bill and the national insurance contributions going up. That toxic concoction will kill off growth. That is the problem. Does my right hon. Friend agree?

[Mel Stride]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right. It is not as if the Government were not warned about these issues. In its reports, the OBR made it extremely clear that while the headline figure to be raised through the national insurance contribution changes is £25 billion, the net figure will be far less because of the behavioural impacts that necessarily follow when jobs are taxed—one does not need to have spent a decade at the Bank of England to know that. National insurance increases lead to fewer jobs, lower wages and higher prices.

Of course, this Government are piling on the regulation with their Employment Rights Bill. We know that this will increase the risk of employing people at a time when the employment market itself is softening and putting an end to flexible working practices, which not only benefit many businesses but suit many people, particularly younger people and those who are more elderly. Given that, it is astonishing that the Chancellor has launched a tax raid on family businesses.

[Gareth Snell (Stoke-on-Trent Central) (Lab/Co-op)]

I thank the shadow Chancellor for giving way. Will he spell out the specific rights in the Employment Rights Bill that he and his party believe should not be afforded to working people in this country?

[Mel Stride]

The hon. Gentleman asks a very fair question. The Bill will create a situation where employers are fearful of taking on new hires because of the consequences that may follow, where trade unions are advantaged in the way the Bill suggests—the trade union paymasters who may, perhaps, support the hon. Gentleman, but who certainly support many of his colleagues—and where the minimum service standards legislation that we brought in will, as I understand it, be overturned. None of those things will be good for jobs, for people searching for employment, for businesses or for the UK economy.

[Gareth Snell]

rose—

[Gareth Snell]

I will happily declare an interest, Madam Deputy Speaker, as a proud member of many trade unions. My declaration is up to date and free for all to see.

I very much enjoyed the shadow Chancellor’s answer to my question, but perhaps I could pose it again, taking a lesson from the leader of his party, and say that he might want to answer it this time. What are the specific rights in the Employment Rights Bill that he and his party oppose? The motion says that the Employment Rights Bill should be stopped. Which rights in the Bill does he oppose working people having?

[Mel Stride]

To paraphrase the leader of the hon. Gentleman’s party, I have already answered his questions. I do note his serial offence of being a member of several trade unions at the moment—it is good of him to disclose that.

The changes to business property relief will see the break-up of many family firms. Of course, the Government will say that it will have an impact only on the wealthiest estates because of the £1 million threshold, but how many of those companies will have the cash available to settle those liabilities? The value of many businesses, of course, lies in their assets. Liquidating those assets to pay those kinds of liabilities, given that the assets are often instrumental to the effective working of the firm, is an absurdity. We also know that the changes will damage businesses’ ability to borrow against assets when there is a sword of Damocles hanging over their head by way of a potential future inheritance tax liability.

Research by CBI Economics for Family Business UK suggests that this policy may not even raise any money. The firms that will be impacted have said that on average, they will invest 17% less in their business as a consequence of this measure; in fact, 15% of those businesses have said they would sell their business altogether.

Of course, the rules will be complex. There will be plenty of red tape and legal advice to be taken from solicitors—real ones. Some people will pay through dividends on which they have already been taxed, so they will be taxed twice. Tax on tax, as we know, is the Labour party way. William Lees-Jones of JW Lees, the long-established family brewery and pub operator in the north-west, has said that the family business tax would

“inevitably reduce future investment in the company.”

Importantly, he goes on to say:

“It would also place our business at a considerable disadvantage to our competitors who tend to be listed or owned by private equity, sometimes overseas.”

So it is that British institutions, which, in some cases, have been in the same family for decades, or even centuries, may end up shutting down or being forced to sell to foreign buyers as a result of this single reckless policy.

[Dr Caroline Johnson (Sleaford and North Hykeham) (Con)]

What Labour seems not to understand is that every business starts with an idea, a hope or a dream, and the individual then puts their whole heart and soul, and every working hour they have, into building their business, often as a whole family endeavour over many generations. It is that, not just the economics and the jobs, that Labour is destroying.

[Mel Stride]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right. That is where the dearth of experience of entrepreneurship on the Government Front Bench really shows. We see this not just with BPR, but with agricultural property relief. Family farms will be broken up, with years and generations of people struggling and working hard, whatever the weather, to grow businesses and provide the food that we need torn asunder with a stroke of the Treasury’s pen.

[Dr Luke Evans]

In an interview, the Prime Minister said that the reason for doing this to farmers was to be able to give them the NHS that they might need. Only a week later, the £10 million fund that was there to support the mental health of farmers had been taken away. It must stick in the throat of farmers when they are told that they are not a priority, that food security is not a priority, and that they will now not have the health service in place, despite having to pay the tax that is about to come into force.

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[Mel Stride]

The treatment of our farmers by this Government has been utterly atrocious. Right before the general election, the shadow Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs—now the Secretary of State—looked the NFU in the eye and told them that, at least on inheritance tax, farmers had nothing to fear from a future Labour Government. The point that my hon. Friend makes is telling: they cared nothing about any of them. Within a matter of months of coming into office, they had brought in their agricultural property relief changes to the detriment of thousands of hard-working farmers up and down our country.

[Becky Gittins (Clwyd East) (Lab)]

I thank the right hon. Member for giving way. Were the wellbeing and mental health of our farming communities and the security of our food, which have just been raised by those on the Opposition Benches, a concern of yours when the Conservative Government sold our farmers down the river with dodgy trade deals with Australia and New Zealand? Was that your concern then?

[Mel Stride]

rose—

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Ms Nusrat Ghani)]

Order. Before the shadow Chancellor responds, let me says that “a concern of yours” would mean a concern of the Chair’s. Let us start off today’s business in good form.

[Mel Stride]

Madam Deputy Speaker, I think that I should put it on the record that you have always been very pro-farmer, and that should never ever be brought into question by anybody in this Chamber.

I have always been extremely proud of our record of supporting farmers up and down the country. That has been the case ever since I first came into the House in 2010, representing a highly rural constituency right in the middle of beautiful Devon. This party should be very proud of the many schemes, financial support packages and so on that it introduced while in government.

[Mike Martin (Tunbridge Wells) (LD)]

I thought that I would let the shadow Chancellor make a little progress in his speech before intervening on him. It seems odd to hear a speech about the economy from the Conservative party without any mention of Liz Truss. Now we hear mention of trade deals. Let me ask him this very directly: does he think that the policies of Liz Truss—[Interruption.] The shadow Chancellor cannot hear what I am saying, because the Members behind him are shouting.

[Mike Martin]

Does the shadow Chancellor think that the policies of Liz Truss were good for business investment and confidence in the economy?

[Mel Stride]

The hon. Gentleman may or may not be aware of this, but, at the time of the mini-Budget, I was the Chair of the Treasury Committee. I had a lot to say about what was being proposed before it happened, I had a lot to say at the time that it happened and I have had a lot to say since then. All of that is a matter of public record. [Interruption.] If the hon. Lady wants to intervene on me, I am very happy to give way.

[Daisy Cooper (St Albans) (LD)]

I have been invited to make an intervention, so I will very quickly say that while the right hon. Gentleman was reasonably outspoken on the mini-Budget, the same cannot be said of his colleagues on the Front Bench.

[Mel Stride]

I have made the position extremely clear. What is very clear is that we actually left the current Government with an excellent inheritance—[Laughter.] Well, where has it all gone now? We left the Labour party with the fastest growing economy in the G7. We left the Labour party with a near-record level of employment. We left the Labour party with a near-record low level of unemployment. We left the Labour party with 13 consecutive months of real wage growth. And we left the Labour party with inflation figures, which had gone up to over 11% in October 2022 due to the Ukraine war, of just 2%—bang on target—on the day of the general election. That is a decent inheritance. It has taken the Labour Government seven short months to completely trash it, so we will take no lectures from them.

We would do things very differently, because we recognise that small businesses and family businesses are the backbone of our economy. They are the life and fire of our economy, but there is no life or fire in the Chancellor—just tragic mistakes and miscalculations. The sugar rush of borrowing and spending that we saw in the last Budget further bloated the size of the state and forced taxes ever upwards. We have seen the Government failing to grasp the nettle of productivity, giving into those trade union paymasters, and awarding above-inflation wage settlements with no strings attached whatsoever. They have had absolutely nothing to say on the issue of welfare, the budget for which has been ballooning out of control. When we were in government, we reduced the welfare budget on my watch by £5 billion. The OBR recorded over 400,000 fewer people going on to long-term sickness and disability benefits as a result of the reforms that we brought in.

There was, however, more to be delivered. We went into the last election with a clear plan to save a further £12 billion every year as a result of our welfare reform. Where has the zeal for welfare reform gone? It has evaporated entirely under the Labour Government—in fact, it was never there. Simply, if the Government have the backbone to come forward with some serious proposals to deal with the welfare budget, such that the Chancellor says at the Dispatch Box on 26 March that she will unwind the national insurance increases, the Opposition will support her.

[Kanishka Narayan (Vale of Glamorgan) (Lab)]

I notice that the motion is on family businesses, but 96% of them have either no employees or a very small number. They are unaffected, if not helped, by the doubling of the employment allowance. Only 4% of family businesses have claimed BPR; most are unaffected. Moreover, the shadow Chancellor cannot name a single proposal under the Employment Rights Bill. Will he apologise to family businesses for the total irrelevance of his complaints to the theme that we are discussing?

[Mel Stride]

With great respect, I think the hon. Gentleman should get out a bit more and speak to some of those businesses.

Politics is about priorities. For all their talk of being the natural party of business, the Government are instead simply reaching for the socialist comfort blanket of tax, spend, borrow and regulate. It has not worked before, it is not working now, and it will never work. The truth is that this Government are totally out of their depth, businesses are reeling, and we are all paying the price.

Growing the UK Economy

Mel Stride Excerpts

Wednesday 29th January 2025 Commons Chamber

[Mel Stride (Central Devon) (Con)]

The Chief Secretary told us that growth is the No. 1 mission of this Government and added, “Now we must go faster”, which I have to tell him suggests a certain lack of ambition. What we do not need is some hasty mañana moment of unquantified, vague promises of a better tomorrow; we need action now to reverse the grievous damage that this Chancellor has wrought in just her first six months in office. Why did the Government deliver a Budget that the independent Office for Budget Responsibility said would lead to lower growth, higher inflation and higher interest rates and would cost jobs? I have to tell the right hon. Gentleman that “going for growth” in the 2030s means nothing to the businesses that have already stopped hiring, shed workers and put up prices thanks to Labour’s ruinous policies.

It is hard to escape the conclusion that these announcements have been hastily cobbled together by a Government who are under increasing pressure to change course but are seemingly incapable of doing so. Why have these announcements come only now? The Labour party had years in opposition and months in government leading up to its first Budget. If the Government really wanted to unleash investment, innovation and the private sector, they should not have decided in the autumn to increase substantially the tax burden and the size of the state. By doing so, far from encouraging private investment, they are actively squeezing it out. Will the Chief Secretary to the Treasury reassure businesses right now that there will be no further growth-destroying fiscal measures in the spring statement, including tax rises?

Is the truth not that the damage is already being done? Even before Labour’s tax rises bite in April, the economy is flatlining right now, so will any of the announcements have an impact within this Parliament, and what—if any—impact are they likely to have on the OBR’s forecasts in March?

Incredibly, the Chancellor said in her speech that businesses are what drive growth and that the Government should support them, yet this is a Government who have driven business confidence off a cliff. They have taxed businesses to the hilt and, through their upcoming employment legislation, will be hitting them still further with ever more job-destroying red tape. Can the Chief Secretary to the Treasury set out what the overall impact of Government policy decisions since July has been on regulatory costs for businesses? Does he agree with the Business Secretary’s extraordinary utterance on the media this morning that the Government have not hammered businesses?

The Chancellor claimed this morning that she has seen no alternative suggestions from the Opposition, so let me give her one now. Last year, the Conservative manifesto included £12 billion in welfare savings. At the time, the Labour party said that the money simply was not there. Now we are told that the Government will shortly be coming forward with plans for welfare reform— another damascene conversion. If they had grasped this issue when they came into office, they could have tackled the rising welfare bill, rather than taxing jobs and killing growth. The Government’s failure to act means that businesses and millions of people are paying the price, so can the Chief Secretary to the Treasury commit today to matching that £12 billion, or can he at least tell us the scale of savings that we can expect from his promised reforms?

Some of the announcements made today are of course welcome. The role of the Opposition is not to oppose for opposition’s sake, not least because many of the measures announced are reheated from the previous Conservative Government. The plans on pension investment, for example, seem oddly familiar to us, probably because they are simply to continue the reforms that I was bringing in when I was Secretary of State for Work and Pensions. Even in this area, though, we must wait and see before passing judgment, because this Government have shown that we simply cannot trust their word. They promised not to raise taxes, but they did. They promised not to cut winter fuel payments, but they did. They promised not to borrow more, but they did. We need to see action, not just words.

The Chancellor talks about removing barriers to growth—oh yes, she talks about it—but that talk comes from the same person whose Budget killed the economy and growth stone-dead. If we are looking to remove the greatest barriers to growth in this country, perhaps we should start with the Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer.

[Darren Jones]

The House is indebted to the shadow Chancellor—Mr Melmentum himself—for his lecture on the need for speed from this Government. Let me tell him that we have done more in the last six or seven months than that lot did in the last 14 years.

The shadow Chancellor asked me about our plans to work with business. The comments today from business leaders and investors speak for themselves: our plans are welcomed by businesses, and we will be working in partnership with them to deliver for this country. He also asked me about work. Those of us in the Labour party make no secret of the fact that we like to support people into work—strong, secure work with workplace rights and secure incomes to help make people’s family finances add up. That is why our party was created in the first place. The real truth from the data is that under the last Government, too many people were waiting at home sick, unable to get NHS appointments or access to mental health services so that they could be helped back into work. Too many people were waiting at home, waiting for training and unable to seize the opportunities advertised in front of them. This Labour Government will not treat those things as a luxury, but will work at speed to give people the work they deserve.

At the heart of the shadow Chancellor’s statement was a truth for the country to consider. Under the last Administration, it was promises cancelled; under this Administration, it is promises being delivered.

Oral Answers to Questions

Mel Stride Excerpts

Tuesday 21st January 2025 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

I call the shadow Chancellor.

[Mel Stride (Central Devon) (Con)]

A moment ago, the right hon. Lady spoke about the importance of spending money wisely, so in the light of the Treasury Committee’s conclusion that her new Office for Value for Money is a waste of money, does she agree that one of its early actions should be to abolish itself in order to save money?

[Rachel Reeves]

I was pleased to appoint Tom Hayhoe to run the Office for Value for Money—somebody who has a track record of delivering value for money for taxpayers. What the Government want to scrap is giving contracts to friends and donors, because that was a colossal waste of money instigated by the Conservative party.

[Mel Stride]

The Chancellor’s answer was an answer, but I do not think that it connected in any way with my question. Could I perhaps ask her about national insurance hikes? A full two thirds of the revenues raised through Labour’s job tax is simply going on servicing the additional debt being run up by this profligate Government. Given that, does she really believe that the catastrophic effects of that tax on businesses right up and down the country are a price worth paying?

[Rachel Reeves]

We inherited a £22 billion black hole in the public finances, and we set out the detail of that at the time of the Budget. It was essential to close that gap to bring stability back to the public finances. That required difficult decisions, but they were the right decisions to ensure that our country has the stability that it lacked for so many years and under so many different Prime Ministers and Chancellors under the Conservative party.

UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue

Mel Stride Excerpts

Tuesday 14th January 2025 Commons Chamber

[Mel Stride (Central Devon) (Con)]

It is good to see the Chancellor in her place, and I thank her for advance sight of her statement. I know that she has been away, so let me update her on the mess that she left behind. The pound has hit a 14-month low; Government borrowing costs are at a 27-year high; growth has been killed stone dead; inflation is rising, impacting millions; interest rates are staying higher for longer; and business confidence has fallen through the floor. The Labour party talked down the economy and crippled businesses with colossal taxes, breaking all their promises. This is a crisis made in Downing Street.

It should hardly surprise the Chancellor that international markets are uneasy. The UK’s long-term borrowing costs have risen to their highest in almost 30 years. But while the Government were losing control of the economy, where was the Chancellor? Her trip to China had not even begun when my urgent question was taken in the House last week. She was still in the country, but she sent the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, rather than facing up to her failures. May I ask her why she chose not to respond herself?

The Chancellor, of course, ducked the difficult questions by jetting off to Beijing. I believe that in Labour circles they are calling it the Peking duck, but whatever was on the menu in China, was it really worth the unedifying sight of an increasingly desperate politician scampering halfway around the world with a begging bowl? The Chancellor’s deal pales in comparison to Labour’s black hole, which opened up in the public finances while the right hon. Lady was absent from her station.

Let me give the House a sense of scale. The deal that the Chancellor has announced amounts to £120 million a year. The rise in our borrowing costs, due to her disastrous Budget, has added about £12 billion to our annual spending on debt interest alone: literally 100 times what she says she has brought back from Beijing. That is money that cannot now be spent on the public’s priorities. That £12 billion is enough to pay for 300,000 nurses or to cover Labour’s pernicious winter fuel payments cut for eight and a half years—and, of course, even before this latest market reaction, the Budget meant spending tens of billions more on servicing our debt. According to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast, two thirds of the money raised from the Chancellor’s jobs tax will be swallowed up by additional debt interest. Forget those billions going towards better public services; they are going on paying the price of Labour’s mismanagement.

We on this side of the House know how this sorry story goes. We have seen it all before: socialist Governments who think that they can tax and spend their way to prosperity; Labour Governments who simply do not understand that if you tax the living daylights out of business, you will get stagnation. They do not understand because there is barely a shred of business experience on the Government Front Bench. May I ask the right hon. Lady which of her promises she will break if the OBR judges in March that she is now in breach of her own fiscal rules? Will she cancel promised spending, will she ramp up borrowing, or will she raise taxes yet again?

This whole sorry tale is nothing short of a Shakespearean tragedy being played out before our eyes. This is the Hamlet of our time. Labour promised the electorate much, while pouring the poison into their ear. And the end—you can feel the end; the Chancellor flailing, estranged, it seems, from those closest to her; those about her falling; the drums beating ever closer. To go, or not to go, that is now a question. The Prime Minister will be damned if he does, but he will surely be damned if he does not. The British people deserve better.

[Rachel Reeves]

The shadow Chancellor is simply not serious. I was on the Opposition side of the House for 14 years, and I think that after a statement one usually asks some questions.

We heard a great deal from the right hon. Gentleman about what he would not do, but we heard absolutely nothing about what he would do. Now we can see what happens when the Leader of the Opposition tells the shadow Cabinet that it should not have any policies. As far as I can tell, the Conservative party’s economic strategy is to say that the UK should not engage with the second largest economy in the world, or indeed with our nearest neighbours and our biggest trading partners in the European Union. The right hon. Gentleman’s economic strategy is to support higher spending but none of the right decisions that are required to deliver sound public finances, and his economic strategy is to ignore the mistakes of the past with no apology to the British people for his part in Liz Truss’s mini-Budget that crashed the economy. I appreciate that, having said that, I may now receive a “cease and desist” letter from her later.

One question that the shadow Chancellor did ask was: why did I go to China? I went to secure tangible benefits for British businesses trading overseas. The right hon. Gentleman said that it was not worth it; let him say that to the representatives of HSBC, Standard Chartered, Prudential, Schroders and the London Stock Exchange who attended those meetings with me last week, all of whom have spoken of the difference that it will make.

I have been under no illusion about the scale of challenges that we face, after 14 years of stagnant economic growth, higher debt and economic uncertainty, and we have seen global economic uncertainty play out in the last week, but leadership is not about ducking these challenges; it is about rising to them. The economic headwinds we face are a reminder that we should—indeed, we must—go further and faster in our plan to kick-start economic growth, which plunged under the last Government, by bringing stability to the public finances after years of instability under the Conservative party, unlocking investment that plummeted under the previous Government and pushing ahead with essential reforms to our economy and public services. That is my message to the House today, because if we get it right, the prize on offer to us—to the British people—is immense: the opportunity to make working people better off by making Britain better off. That is the mandate this Government have, and that is what we will deliver.

Public Finances: Borrowing Costs

Mel Stride Excerpts

Thursday 9th January 2025 Commons Chamber

[Mel Stride (Central Devon) (Con)]

(Urgent Question): To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if she will make a statement on the growing pressure of borrowing costs on the public finances.

[Hon. Members]

Where is she?

[Mr Speaker]

I call the shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer.

[Mel Stride]

The performance we have just seen was a slightly anxious and breathless one, which leads me to the question: where is the Chancellor? It is a bitter regret that at this difficult time and given these serious issues, she herself is nowhere to be seen.

In the last 48 hours, borrowing costs have reached a 27-year high, and it is the Chancellor’s decisions that have led us here. Before the election, the right hon. Lady promised that Labour would get debt falling, would not fiddle the figures, would not raise taxes and would grow the economy, but the economy is now flatlining. Survey after survey is showing that business confidence has simply evaporated, and at the Budget, the Chancellor hiked up taxes, increased borrowing by an average of £32 billion a year across the forecast, and conveniently adjusted her fiscal rules to allow her to do so.

Higher debt and lower growth are understandably now causing real concerns among the public, among businesses and in the markets, and despite what the Chief Secretary has said about international factors, the premium on our borrowing costs compared with German bonds recently hit its highest level since 1990. With those rising costs, regrettably, the Government may now be on course to breach their fiscal rules. The Chancellor has committed to no further tax rises, so does the right hon. Gentleman stand by her commitment not to increase taxes even further? If so, does that mean that the public should expect cuts to public service spending if the OBR judges that her fiscal headroom has evaporated?

There are media reports that the Chancellor will make an emergency intervention to soothe markets, but with no confirmation that such a statement will occur in this House. Will the right hon. Gentleman confirm that any such statement will be made first to Members in this House? Rates on Government bonds ultimately feed through to the broader credit market, so what estimates has the Treasury made of how recent market movements will impact mortgage costs and lending across the economy?

I will make one final point, Mr Speaker. Every pound that we spend on debt interest is money that we cannot spend on the public’s priorities. The Government’s decision to let rip on borrowing means that their own tax rises will end up being swallowed up by higher borrowing costs, at no benefit to the British people. Far from this Government laying the foundations for a stronger economy, the Chancellor is squandering the endeavours of millions of hard-working people up and down our country, who are now having to pay the price for yet another socialist Government taxing and spending their way into trouble. Does the right hon. Gentleman not now accept that it is time to change course?

[Darren Jones]

I am pleased that the right hon. Gentleman enjoyed my performance—I have not even had my first cup of coffee yet this morning. Let me answer some of his questions. [Interruption.] Conservative Members might like to listen, if the questions are so important to them.

The right hon. Gentleman asked me about the fiscal rules. As I said in my statement, those rules are non-negotiable. As the Chancellor set out at the Budget, we have two fiscal rules: first, that day-to-day spending should be met by tax receipts, and secondly, that debt should be falling as a share of the economy.

The right hon. Gentleman talked about the debt burden that this country has. Maybe we should reflect a little on why we have so much debt—[Interruption.] From pre-pandemic, Mr Speaker. Let us look at the burden of debt inherited by this Government from the Conservatives. From 2010 onwards, why did the last Government have to borrow so much money every single month, not just to invest but to pay the day-to-day bills? Because of an absolute failure to get growth into the economy. They could not make the numbers add up. They stacked up the country’s credit card and left it to the Labour party to deal with, and we are going to deal with it. That is why those fiscal rules are non-negotiable, and it is why public spending will be within the numbers set out at the Budget.

We are starting the spending review now, and it will conclude in June. Public services will have to live within their means—the Chancellor has been very clear about that. That is why with this Government, you get economic stability and absolute clarity on public spending. That is why the British people trust this party and booted that lot out of office.

National Insurance Contributions (Secondary Class 1 Contributions) Bill

Mel Stride Excerpts

Committee of the whole House & 3rd reading
Tuesday 17th December 2024 Commons Chamber

[Mel Stride (Central Devon) (Con)]

This is not a Bill, but a Shakespearean tragedy. It is the “Hamlet” of our age. While the Labour party was tipping the poison into the ears of the electorate, it was assuring them in its manifesto that it would do nothing with national insurance. Look what it has done. This will hit inflation—all forecasts show it higher every year than it would have been under us back in the spring. Mortgages will be higher, living standards will be lower, wages will be driven further down and there will be a £770 reduction in the standard of living by October 2029, according to the Joseph Rowntree Foundation. We will see 50,000 jobs destroyed, particularly among our younger people. We will see growth impacted—lower across the forecast period than it would have been under ourselves back in the spring.

This is a far cry from our record when we left office, with employment at near record highs, unemployment at near record lows, the fastest growing economy in the G7 and real wages growing in every month for 13 consecutive months. We brought inflation down from over 11% in October 2022 to exactly the target of 2% on election day. The Bill is a calamity for businesses up and down our country. We are the party that understands that we only get good public services with a strong economy and strong businesses. The Labour party is consigning people up and down this country, plunging them into the tepid bath of managed decline over which it has presided.

Question put, That the Bill be now read the Third time.

Employer National Insurance Contributions

Mel Stride Excerpts

Wednesday 4th December 2024 Commons Chamber

[Mel Stride (Central Devon) (Con)]

I beg to move,

That this House regrets that increasing the rate of employers’ National Insurance contributions (NICs) to 15%, and reducing the per-employee threshold at which employers become liable to pay NICs on employees’ earnings to £5,000, will lead to increased costs for businesses and lower wages for employees, including in particular young people; will force companies to cut employment, leading to some 130,000 job losses according to Bloomberg Economics; will increase costs for retailers by £2.3 billion according to the British Retail Consortium, leading to higher prices for consumers; will create an annual additional bill of £1.4 billion for charitable service providers according to the National Council for Voluntary Organisations, so they will struggle to maintain support for vulnerable people; and will increase childcare costs for families; further regrets that the Government has not published its complete assessment of the effect this policy will have on the public and private sector, or indeed any impact assessment; and regrets also that, as a result of the Government’s economic policies, GDP forecasts are down, inflation is up and business confidence is down.

“Growth” was the leitmotiv of the Labour party. Its members chuntered on about it during the run-up to the last general election, and in their manifesto, under the heading “Kickstart economic growth”, they said that they would secure the highest sustained growth in the G7. They also said—and I know that you like a good joke, Madam Deputy Speaker, but I would ask you to contain yourself—that they would forge a

“new partnership with business to boost growth everywhere”.

Given what has happened, those are fantastical statements. Reading Labour’s manifesto was somewhat like stepping through the looking glass. It had something of Lewis Carroll about it. This lot were less the Prime Minister and the Chancellor than the Walrus and the Carpenter, cruelly leading businesses to their demise. For all the fantasy in the manifesto, they might just as well have spoken

“Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—

Of cabbages—and kings—

And why the sea is boiling hot—

And whether pigs have wings.”

Because what happened to growth? The Office for Budget Responsibility tells us that the Budget will lead to less growth across the forecast period than was the case back in the spring under the last Government. The Office for National Statistics tells us in the third-quarter GDP data that the economy grew by 0.1%—one seventh of the growth in the United States. In the third month of that quarter, which was September, growth was actually negative. That is the record of this Government.

[Mr Toby Perkins (Chesterfield) (Lab)]

The right hon. Gentleman talks about the OBR figures, but he fails to mention that his party misled the OBR to the extent that it had to put the failure in writing. Given that he is talking about Lewis Carroll, is it not true to say that the figures that the OBR was working with were more likely to have been received from the Mad Hatter?

[Mel Stride]

That is an amusing intervention, but it is thoroughly inaccurate, I am afraid. The OBR did indeed look into the suggestion that there was a black hole of £22 billion, and what did it conclude? It concluded that the fiscal pressure in that year was less than half that amount. The OBR readily accepted that had it had discussions with Treasury officials about that at the time, it may well have reduced the amount still further. Members from across the House know that it is not unusual for the Treasury to manage down in-year fiscal pressures as a matter of course, so the argument has been debunked. It is the dead parrot. It is pushing up the daisies. It is no more.

The hon. Gentleman’s point is indicative of what this Government have done: they have talked down the UK economy. In turn, business confidence has slumped in a way seldom seen in our history, with purchasing managers index surveys falling through the floor. We have seen the Institute of Directors’ optimism tracker scoring minus 60 in November—one would have to go back to April 2020 to find a lower score than that. We also know that at the centre of the Budget is the biggest broken promise of all: the increase in employer’s national insurance contributions. That is weighing on growth.

And what of jobs? Labour’s fantastical manifesto talks about job creation, which is mentioned several times, but the Government are destroying jobs by breaking a manifesto commitment. It was there in black and white in their manifesto that they would not raise national insurance. Do not take my word that they breached their manifesto; take that of Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, who says precisely the same.

[Paul Waugh (Rochdale) (Lab/Co-op)]

The right hon. Member refers to broken manifesto pledges. The Conservatives’ 2019 manifesto said they would not raise national insurance, yet three years later he and all his colleagues voted to raise national insurance—not just on employees, but on employers. Can he help us with that process of logic?

[Mel Stride]

I think the hon. Gentleman might just be overlooking a little something called covid, which shrank the UK economy by over 10% overnight.

What this Government have done is take us right back to the 1970s when it comes to the jaw-dropping level of tax increases and spending splurges. The impact on jobs is stark, and it is clear. The OBR says there will be 50,000 fewer full-time equivalent jobs as a result of the measures in the Budget. Bloomberg says that 130,000 jobs will be destroyed. The Confederation of British Industry, in a survey of its membership, says that 50% of businesses report that they will cut employment as a consequence of the Budget, and two thirds say that they will row back on the recruitment plans that they previously had.

It is not just about the headline rate; the threshold is so pertinent and important here. It is bearing down on sectors where wages are lower, and on cohorts in the labour market who earn the least, because of the disproportionate impact of lowering the threshold. They include hospitality, leisure, retail and women. Some of the youngest people in our country will now see their jobs taken away from them as a consequence of what this Government are doing. We know that the Labour party has form when it comes to youth unemployment. Under the last Labour Government, youth unemployment increased by over 40%. Under the last Conservative Government, it reduced by over 40%.

Labour said in this fantastical document that it would keep inflation as low as possible. It said the same of mortgages, and yet what has happened? This fiscal splurge, this £70 billion each year that the Government are now going to be spending, will mean higher inflation in every single year of the forecast, compared with the forecast back in the spring. What is that doing to people’s living standards? It is destroying them, and I will come to that momentarily. Part of the inflationary pressure is the national insurance increase itself, because while we know that, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility, about 80% of it will be transferred into lower employment rates and depressed wages, about 20% of it will go into higher prices.

And what of living standards? This fantastical Lewis Carroll document said that Labour would be making everybody, not just the few, better off. However, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation—hardly a right-wing thinktank—says that by October 2029, the average family will be £770 worse off in real terms than they are today.

[Dr Jeevun Sandher (Loughborough) (Lab)]

We on this side of the House will not take lectures on living standards from the party that left us with the worst squeeze on wages since Napoleon, the highest energy prices in the G7 and the highest inflation. The Conservatives left us with the worst-insulated homes and dependent on natural gas. That is why this party will invest in insulation to make us all better off in the long run.

[Mel Stride]

I am surprised that the hon. Gentleman raises the inheritance that his party has received from the Conservatives. We had the highest rate of growth in the G7. We had brought inflation right down from 11.1% in October 2022 to 2%—bang on target—at the time of the general election. We had a near-record level of employment. We had a near-record low level of unemployment. We had real wages that had been increasing month after month for 13 or 14 months prior to the general election. That was not a bad inheritance.

[Torsten Bell (Swansea West) (Lab)]

I am grateful to the shadow Chancellor for giving way, even if I cannot quite believe what I am hearing. Anyone boasting about the economic record of the previous Government, particularly in the immediate run-up to the last election, should read this week’s release from the Office for National Statistics on the reweighted labour force survey. It shows that productivity in the year running up to the election fell by 0.9%. That was in just one year. That is what economic failure looks like.

[Mel Stride]

No matter what points the hon. Gentleman may make, I am afraid he cannot get away from the fact that this Government are bearing down on growth, pressing up on unemployment, bearing down on employment and bearing down on living standards.

The OBR also says that real household disposable income by 2029 will be 1.25% lower than it was back in the spring, at the time of that forecast. We know the impact that national insurance is going to have on wages. It will press them down and it will further diminish living standards.

[Paul Holmes (Hamble Valley) (Con)]

Does my right hon. Friend the shadow Chancellor remember any Labour MP in the last general election standing on a fully costed manifesto that would mean economic growth was forecast to be lower than under the previous Government? Perhaps the hon. Member for Swansea West (Torsten Bell) should remember that Labour MPs stood on a manifesto that was apparently fully costed but then had different commitments. We had a faster rate of growth under the last Government than is projected under this Government.

[Mel Stride]

The simple fact is that, at the time of the general election, we had the fastest-growing economy in the G7. The simple fact is that the Labour manifesto said it would deliver precisely that, yet we have heard very little about that commitment in recent days and weeks—I wonder why.

[Dr Andrew Murrison (South West Wiltshire) (Con)]

Does my right hon. Friend agree that it is important to set the facts right? It is important to reflect on the fact that, during our 14 years in government—despite the 2008–09 financial crisis, despite the pandemic and despite the energy crisis—more than 1 million jobs were created, and 4 million people were in employment who were not in employment when we took office.

[Mel Stride]

My right hon. Friend is absolutely right. Our record on employment shows that we were a job-creating machine after 2010, and the statistics he cites are quite right.

When it came to business—this is a killer worthy of a stand-up comedy routine—the manifesto said:

“Labour will…support business through a stable policy environment”.

Of course, we know that all sorts of businesses have been hit by this tax increase, including many that directly support our public services: our hospices, our GPs and our pharmacists. Marie Curie has said that it is about to get a tax bill for an additional £3 million. Just think of the impact that will have.

The question that many are now feverishly and worriedly asking is whether there is more to come. Are the Government going to run out of road with their approach to our economy, and will they come back for more? Well, the Chancellor recently told the CBI that the Government will not be

“coming back with more borrowing or more taxes.”

Yet when the Leader of the Opposition put this assertion to the Prime Minister at Prime Minister’s questions today, we heard no answer. When I twice asked exactly that question of the Chancellor yesterday, we heard no response. Currently, these businesses do not know whether the Chancellor’s assertion that there will be no more borrowing and no more taxes is true or false.

[Dave Doogan (Angus and Perthshire Glens) (SNP)]

It sounds like the shadow Chancellor is unconvinced by the shrill chants of Labour Members that the Government will fix the foundations of the economy, and he has good reason for being suspicious. In October, when the Government had scarcely been in office for three months, they had more in-month borrowing than any UK Government since 1993, with the exception of one month during covid. Does that look like fixing the foundations to the shadow Chancellor?

--- Later in debate ---

[Mel Stride]

I have heard the hon. Gentleman intervene in various debates, and I am coming to the conclusion that he is probably a rather sensible SNP Member, because he is absolutely right. [Interruption.] I did not opine on how sensible his party is. I just said that he is one of its most sensible Members.

It is very clear that this Government will not create firm foundations for the economy. They will actually create a vulnerable economy, because there are risks around the central forecast and downside risks around growth, inflation, net migration, economic inactivity, energy prices, interest rates and so on. There will also be risks around the spending envelope after the first couple of years, particularly for a profligate Labour Government who may find that constraint unbearable.

There are also external risks. We know that there will be a new Government in the United States, and there is talk of tariffs. It may be that the deficit financing of tax cuts leads to interest rates rising around the world as bond yields increase, and that could be imported to our shores.

All these things mean that we need a good level of headroom against our fiscal targets, yet, on the stability target, it is quite possible that the headroom has already evaporated. Why? Because, to my earlier point, the Government talked down the UK economy and, partly as a result, are paying more to service the debt that this country carries.

[Kanishka Narayan (Vale of Glamorgan) (Lab)]

I thank the shadow Chancellor for giving way; my interest was piqued by his talk of deficit financed tax cuts. Does he agree with his boss, the Leader of the Opposition, that the Liz Truss mini-Budget, which is the prime example of the thing he criticises, was the right package, but just with the wrong communication?

[Mel Stride]

If the hon. Gentleman has a look at the history of that time, he will see that I was the Chair of the Treasury Committee, and I had a great deal to say about the economic policies that were pursued in the so-called mini-Budget, so I will leave it at that.

[Graham Stuart (Beverley and Holderness) (Con)]

On that point, will my right hon. Friend give way?

[Mel Stride]

How could I not?

[Graham Stuart]

My right hon. Friend is giving a powerful speech. Does he share my feeling of pity for the—in some cases, distinguished—new Members of Parliament on the Government Benches? They want to talk again and again about the past, and about what happened as we recovered from the pandemic and got through the energy crisis, but not a single one wants to defend the appalling employer NICs increase, which will take £26 billion out of the economy but ultimately provide only about £10 billion or £11 billion in revenue for public services. It is an extraordinary misstep, is it not?

[Mel Stride]

My right hon. Friend is right. They avoid the present and run away from the future, and there is no surprise about why that is the case.

[Several hon. Members rose—]

--- Later in debate ---

[Mel Stride]

I will not give way now.

For this Government, supporting business is like living in a world of fantasy. In “The Walrus and the Carpenter”, it was trusting oysters who were led to their early demise; with the Prime Minister and the Chancellor, it is businesses that were trusting. As Lewis Carroll might have written the final verse:

“‘O businesses’, said the Chancellor,

‘You’ve had a pleasant run!

Shall we be trotting home again?’

But answer came there none—

And this was scarcely odd, because

She’d finished off every one.”

That leaves just the Conservative party standing up for businesses in this country. For the working men and women in this country, we are the party that understands the difference between fantasy and reality. We are the party that knows that businesses need lower taxes, not higher taxes; less regulation, not more regulation; and a Government who are on their side. That is not the Labour party.

Oral Answers to Questions

Mel Stride Excerpts

Tuesday 3rd December 2024 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

I call the shadow Chancellor.

[Mel Stride (Central Devon) (Con)]

What a pleasure it is to appear opposite the right hon. Lady for the first time. I was tempted to ask her how things were going, but I did not want to start out by being unkind. I will instead ask this: when she recently pledged to the CBI that she would not raise taxes again, did she mean it?

[Rachel Reeves]

I welcome the right hon. Member to his place, and look forward to many exchanges with him across the Dispatch Box. At the Budget in October, as he knows, we had to fix a £22 billion black hole in the public finances. Some of that black hole comes from the fact that we are the only G7 economy in which employment is lower than it was before the pandemic, when he was Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, so we had to raise taxes to fund our public services; but never again will we have to repeat a Budget like that one, because we have now wiped the slate clean and drawn a line under the mess created by the previous Government.

[Mel Stride]

I did not actually discern any answer to my question, so may I put it this way? No. 10 has stated that it is not prepared to stand by the Chancellor’s commitment on tax. Is that because No. 10 changed its mind, or because the right hon. Lady spoke without thinking?

[Rachel Reeves]

No Chancellor of the Exchequer would write five years’ worth of Budget in their first five months in post, but I can say that we will never have to deliver a Budget like that again. We took decisions in this Budget in order to wipe the slate clean after the mismanagement, decline and chaos of the previous Government. That required us to make difficult decisions, but we were right to make them, so that we can get going with our plans to achieve growth and reform public services, and deliver the NHS and schools that our country desperately needs.