George Osborne
Main Page: George Osborne (Conservative - Tatton)Department Debates - View all George Osborne's debates with the HM Treasury
(8 years, 9 months ago)
Commons Chamber12. What recent assessment he has made of the potential effect on the economy of the UK leaving the EU.
My responsibility as Chancellor is for jobs, livelihoods and living standards. It is clear to me that a UK exit from the EU would be a long, costly and messy divorce that would hurt all those things. We have already seen sterling fall, and yesterday HSBC predicted a further 15% to 20% slump in the event of a vote to leave. The finance Ministers and central bank governors of the G20 concluded at the weekend that a British exit would cause an economic shock not just to the UK but to Europe and the world. What people are asking for in this referendum campaign is a serious, sober and principled assessment from the Government setting out the facts. I can announce today that the Treasury will publish before 23 June a comprehensive analysis of our membership of a reformed EU and the alternatives, including the long-term economic costs and benefits of EU membership and the risks associated with an exit.
Given that up to 140,000 jobs and half of the north-east region’s exports rely on Britain’s membership of the European Union, does the Chancellor agree with me and the majority of members of the North East chamber of commerce that an exit from the EU would be extremely damaging for north-east economic growth and regeneration?
Yes, I agree with both the hon. Lady and businesses in the north-east. Of course, the north-east has thrived by attracting big inward investment for car manufacturing and train manufacturing, most recently in Newton Aycliffe. One of the things that those who are advocating exit from the EU have to answer is, for example, what the alternative arrangement is for a large car factory in north-east England. Could it export its cars to mainland Europe without tariffs? It is not obvious that it is possible to do that without paying towards the EU budget and accepting the free movement of people.
I believe that the best way to help the UK steel industry is both to take action at home and through being part of a large economic bloc—in other words, the European Union—raising our concerns about, for example, Chinese steel dumping. Frankly, when we make that argument with China, our voice will be amplified if we make it as part of the EU as opposed to making it alone.
In the event of a no vote, the Government have committed themselves to triggering article 50 straight away. I cannot see the point of that. Why do not the Government give some time between a no vote and the triggering of article 50, to enable a discussion to take place with counterparties and see the extent to which good faith could be established with the countries of the European Union? It seems illogical to restrict ourselves in that way.
It is not illogical that if the country votes to leave, we leave the European Union. That is the choice for the people of this country. The only available mechanism is the triggering of article 50, which gives a two-year time limit. Of course, we would try to negotiate in good faith and an extension can be achieved, but only with the consent of 27 other nations. People need to be aware that there are not going to be two referendums. It is decision day on 23 June. People need to choose and I think that voting to remain in the EU is the best outcome for our economic and national security.
Is it not extraordinary that the Chancellor asked the G20 to make that statement, and is it not the case that he made that request so that it could tee up this element of “Project Fear”?
The idea that the US Treasury Secretary, the head of the International Monetary Fund and, indeed, the Governor of the Central Bank of China dance to a British tune is, I am afraid, fanciful. Governors of central banks and the Finance Ministers of the G20 are saying the same thing as every major independent economic institution: that a British exit would cause an immediate economic shock and have longer economic costs. I totally understand why many of the people advocating exit want to do so, but, to be frank, they accept that there would be a short-term and potentially long-term economic cost. We should have that on the table, which is why the Treasury is going to produce its analysis.
Despite the recent gulag debacle, does the Chancellor agree that UK membership of the European Union should make it easier to clamp down on immoral tax avoidance by multinational companies?
I know that Russia Today is the favoured channel of the Labour leadership, but this is Treasury questions. We are raising with the European Union—this is another example of where being part of a bigger club helps—the possibility of getting a pan-European agreement for country-by-country public reporting so that we can see what multinational companies are paying in different countries. Of course, our ability to achieve that is amplified by being part of the EU.
If my right hon. Friend’s rather apocalyptic view of our leaving the European Union is correct, was it not irresponsible and inaccurate of the Prime Minister to say that he ruled nothing out prior to the completion of the most unsatisfactory renegotiation?
We have secured a renegotiation that I think addresses the principal British concerns about our membership of the European Union, and now we can advocate membership of this reformed EU. I think we will be stronger, safer and better off in that European Union.
19. Between 2007 and 2013, more than 8,000 businesses in the north-west were able to start up, thanks to EU funding. I welcome the Chancellor’s comments this morning about the analysis that he will put forward before 23 June. Will that include specific detail about the impact of leaving the EU on the economy of the north-west?
I am happy to take on board the hon. Lady’s request about the impact that an exit would have on the north-west of England. I am a north-west MP, and I know that many businesses in the north-west have access to that big free trade single market, which is the largest market in the world. All the alternatives on offer, whether we go for the approaches taken in Norway, Switzerland, Canada or the World Trade Organisation—of course, those who advocate withdrawal have not been able to settle on one approach—would involve some kind of barrier to entry, or we would have to pay into the EU budget, as Norway does, and accept free movement of people, which is one of the complaints about EU membership. Examining the alternatives, as we will do in the coming days, will throw a spotlight on the choice facing the country.
Should the British people decide to vote leave on 23 June, what arguments would the Chancellor deploy on 24 June in favour of the United Kingdom to attract investors and encourage them to invest in the United Kingdom rather than in other countries in Europe?
I will always fight, and the Government will always fight, for the best interests of the United Kingdom, and we will do whatever we can in response to the verdict of the people. My recommendation, and the recommendation of the British Government, is that we are better off in the reformed EU—
The point I make to my hon. Friend is that, of course, we will have to handle the situation if the British people choose to exit, and I would always want to stress that we are a great country to invest in, but I think that that argument will be weaker if we are not in the EU.
We are deeply grateful, but we must try to attend to the questions asked, and to do so in a timely way, because progress is desperately slow. Members can do better than that, one would hope.
Would there not be a double whammy if Britain left the EU? First, there is the widely predicted risk of depreciation, which will lead to higher interest rates. Secondly, any notion that our exporters would benefit from a cheaper pound is more than offset by the additional tariff barriers that those firms would encounter worldwide.
The former shadow Chancellor is right to point to both the immediate economic shock, which I think is generally accepted—even those who, for perfectly honourable reasons, advocate withdrawal, accept that there would be an immediate economic dislocation—and the longer-term costs. If we tell Britain to make this leap in the dark, we have to be able to answer the question: what is the alternative? How do we reassure the car manufacturer in north-east England that tariffs will not be imposed on its cars, as a result of which it will not be so competitive and there will not be so many jobs in its factory? Those are the questions for this big national debate.
Those who wish us to stay in the European Union say on the one hand that we are an insignificant economy and too small to stand on our own, but on the other hand that if we leave the European Union it will cause an economic meltdown around the world. They cannot both be true, Chancellor.
Our argument is that we will be stronger and better off inside the European Union. That is the positive choice that we face as a country. I, personally, do not think that we should leave the EU, but even those who contemplate doing so should think about this. With the economic situation that the world faces at the moment, and with the geopolitical situation that we face in Europe with Putin on our doorstep and the crisis in the middle east, is this the right moment to leave? My strong advice, the advice of the British Cabinet and the advice of the British Government is that we remain in this reformed EU.
The Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon was in London yesterday making the case for the UK to remain in the EU. She made the point that access to that market supports some 300,000 jobs in Scotland and some 3 million jobs in the UK. May I ask the Chancellor to agree with me—I am sure he will—that in terms of EU membership, trade deals are easier to agree as a bloc, harmonised regulation helps businesses to export and, notwithstanding the fact that improvements can always be made, being a member of the EU benefits consumers as well?
I agree that Scotland benefits from both being part of the United Kingdom and being part of the European Union. The hon. Gentleman is right to highlight the fact that EU agreements on things such as air travel and mobile phone charges have reduced costs for consumers. It is also the case that a depreciation in sterling leads to increased inflation.
The extent to which the EU has succeeded is actually quite remarkable in terms of free trade, free movement—we think it is a boon—and, indeed, the commensurate protections for the environment, social protection and employment rights. These substantial achievements of the European Union are to be celebrated, not renounced. That is the positive case we are making. May I urge the Chancellor and his right hon. Friend the Prime Minister to make a positive case, because the in campaign does not have a 20-point lead to squander with a negative campaign?
I am making the positive case that we will be stronger, safer and better off, which are all positive outcomes for our country, and I am pointing out that there are question marks over the alternatives. It is perfectly reasonable to point out that we do not know what the leap in the dark would entail, but of course I want to do this in a positive way. There is a healthy debate across our political system as well as across our country, but I take the view of Ronald Reagan’s 11th commandment, which is that “I won’t speak ill of a Conservative.”
3. What assessment he has made of the potential effect of the national living wage on wage growth.
The national living wage will mean that a full-time minimum-wage worker benefiting from the policy will earn over £4,000 more by 2020 in cash terms, a rise of more than 35%. Due to the ripple effects on those on higher incomes, up to 6 million workers will benefit. The national living wage will drive up productivity; it will make sure that work pays; it is progressive and fair; and I am proud it is being introduced by a Conservative Government.
I thank the Chancellor for his response. I am delighted that the national living wage will come into force from 1 April because Southampton has a high number of low-paid workers, which this policy addresses. What assurances can my right hon. Friend give my constituents that their jobs will be protected as a consequence of this wage rise and a strong local economy?
The assurance I can give is that, alongside the national living wage, we have cut taxes for businesses so that they have more money to invest in their workforce. We have introduced and increased the employment allowance, which helps small businesses in particular. I introduced that increase at the same time as announcing the national living wage. We are of course making big investments in the Southampton economy so that it is a great place to grow a business and employ people. All those things will help the hard-working people my hon. Friend represents so well.
Wage growth matters, but surely it is the bottom line of your payslip that really counts. That is why the Chancellor is wrong to say that this is progressive. The Resolution Foundation has found that, over the next Parliament, those in the top half of our income distribution will benefit more than those at the bottom. How can the Chancellor say that what he has done will help those with the least?
The hon. Lady seems to be opposing the national living wage. I think it is a progressive policy. Indeed, it was based on work by the Resolution Foundation. If you want a regressive policy, I will give you one. How about increasing the basic rate of income tax? That is what the Labour party is proposing in Scotland—the first sign of what an economic policy would look like under this new Labour leadership. How can an increase in the basic rate of income tax, which would hit people earning over £11,000, be remotely progressive or fair?
22. Most businesses, as well as workers, in my constituency warmly welcome the introduction of the national living wage and the increased spending power it will deliver. Will the Chancellor and his team carefully monitor the implementation of the national living wage to see whether there are any unintended consequences, particularly in sectors where margins are already small, such as farming, social care and hospitality?
We will of course monitor the impact of all our policies on the economy and on particular sectors. That is one of the reasons why, alongside introducing the national living wage, we have introduced the new council tax supplement for the social care sector. The Office for Budget Responsibility analysis when we announced the national living wage was that, while in theory 60,000 jobs could be lost in the future that might otherwise have been created, the other policies we were pursuing would see over 1 million new jobs created, so the overall effect is an increase in employment of over 1 million.
How can the Treasury ensure that employers do not reduce the hours of work of their employees, many of whom are in receipt of low incomes?
Many employer organisations and businesses have welcomed the national living wage, and many studies suggest that having a higher floor for wages drives up productivity, which, as the hon. Lady will know, is one of Britain’s great economic challenges.
4. What progress has been made on implementing the charter for budget responsibility.
5. What fiscal steps he is taking to help first-time homebuyers.
The Government want to make home ownership a reality for as many people as possible, which is why we are building 400,000 new homes and have extended Help to Buy. Our new Help to Buy ISA, launched a year ago at the Budget, is already being used by almost one third of a million families to save for their first home—confirmation that the Conservative Government are on the side of home ownership.
Recent figures show that 82% of buyers who used Help to Buy would not have been able to buy their home without that scheme. Does my right hon. Friend agree that the Conservatives are helping hard-working people to realise their dreams of home ownership? Is he aware of alternative economic policies and the risk that they pose to families in my constituency?
My hon. Friend is right, and 130,000 people have made use of our Help to Buy scheme, which has helped people in his constituency and elsewhere to get on the housing ladder. At the same time, we are seeking to increase supply by building more homes for people to buy. First-time buyers were down by more than 50% under the previous Labour Government, but they are up by 60% with us.
The Chancellor makes great claim for his policy, but in inner-London in my constituency, housing is a real crisis. This morning I met the head of our clinical commissioning group. We have a crisis in GP recruitment and in hospital doctor appointments. Even highly paid doctors cannot afford to get on the housing ladder in my constituency, and that is causing a crisis in public services. What will he do about that?
We are doing two things about that. First, we are building more homes in London than were ever built under the previous Labour Government, and we have also just introduced Help to Buy London, so that we help Londoners deal with the very high cost of housing in the capital.
After six years as Chancellor, will the right hon. Gentleman confirm whether home ownership went up or down between 2010 and 2015?
When I first became Chancellor we were in the aftermath of a collapse in the housing market, so it took a couple of years to get house building going again. House building starts are now up, and the number of first-time buyers has risen by 60% since I became Chancellor. It was down by 50% under the last Labour Government.
There you have it, Mr Speaker. We know from the English housing survey that 201,000 fewer households owned a home in 2015 than five years ago, compared with an increase of 1 million under Labour. By 2025, nine out of 10 Britons under 35 on modest incomes will not be able to afford a home. Rents in the private sector are soaring, and the housing benefit bill is likely to be £350 million more than the Chancellor forecast last year. Is his record on housing investment one of failure, with British families now literally paying the price?
Housing starts are higher than they were when I became the Chancellor, but what people need—homeowners or people who are building houses—above all is economic security, which is what the Government are seeking to deliver. Frankly, the fact that the Labour party is now getting its advice from Yanis Varoufakis and the revolutionary Marxist broadcaster Paul Mason does not suggest to me that it has an answer to economic security. Presumably Labour chose those two because Chairman Mao was dead and Micky Mouse was busy.
6. What support his Department provides for British citizens involved in tax disputes with other countries.
T1. If he will make a statement on his departmental responsibilities.
The core purpose of the Treasury is to ensure that the economy is stable and prosperous.
Has the Chancellor had a chance to read last week’s National Audit Office report on financial services mis-selling? Does he agree that it draws attention to a missed opportunity to deliver a financial advice sector that protects small-scale investors when things go wrong, as they did in the case of the Connaught fund, with devastating results for a number of my constituents?
We have sought to increase consumer protection by introducing a powerful new consumer protection agency in the form of the Financial Conduct Authority, and we have sought to give more financial advice to individuals through, for instance, the Money Advice Service and Pension Wise. However, if the hon. Lady has any specific further ideas that we can consider, I shall be happy to do that.
T3. The Government are making some of the biggest investments in road and rail in our nation’s history. Is my right hon. Friend aware of any alternative investment policies, and of the impact that they would have on our nation’s economic security and, in particular, the southern powerhouse?
My hon. Friend is right to draw attention to the big investment that is being made in our nation’s infrastructure, especially transport infrastructure. We have the biggest rail programme since the Victorian age and the biggest road programme since the 1970s, which the hon. Lady is seeing in the improvements to the A27 and M27 in her area. Of course, an economic policy that destroys all confidence in the British economy would mean no investment.
T2. The OECD has estimated that tax havens are costing developing countries three times the global aid budget. Does the Chancellor share my frustration over the fact that the UK overseas territories have ignored the pleas of the Prime Minister, and have not introduced beneficial ownership registers? What more can be done to end the secrecy and inaction?
T8. Tackling the deficit should rightly be a priority for the country. What steps is my right hon. Friend taking to ensure that everyone pays a fair share in meeting that objective?
My hon. Friend is absolutely right. We want to ensure that this is done fairly. Under the present Government, the richest pay a higher proportion of income tax than they did under the last Labour Government. Figures published this morning by HMRC contain, for the first time, the income tax data for 2013-14, which was when the 50p rate was reduced to 45p. The data reveal that in that year there was an £8 billion increase in revenues from additional-rate taxpayers, which completely defies the predictions made by the Labour party at the time, and shows that we have lower, competitive taxes that are paid by all.
T4. Figures from the Public and Commercial Services Union show that 2,000 HMRC staff in Scotland face redundancy, including 150 experienced and dedicated people in Inverness. At the same time, the HMRC overtime bill is about £6 million a month. Can the Chancellor explain to my constituents how that makes any sense at all?
About 40,000 people in my constituency have benefited from the rise in the personal allowance since 2010. Can the Chancellor confirm that the Government will continue to help hard-working people to keep more of the money that they earn?
That is absolutely what the Government were elected to deliver. We have manifesto commitments to deliver not just the £50,000 threshold for the higher rate, but a £12,500 personal allowance, so that more people can see the benefit of either paying no tax if they are low paid, or paying less tax if they are better paid.
T5. Will the Chancellor tell us when he is due to publish the proposals for the distribution and calculation of the apprenticeship levy to the devolved nations, and whether the Governments in those nations have agreed to it?
We are working to get those arrangements right. They are clearly complex, because of cross-border companies that will pay a single levy rate, but we are having good discussions with the Scottish Government. I think that, as with the agreement on the fiscal charter, we can work together for the benefit of the United Kingdom.
I welcome the fact that my constituents have been given more control over their finances, thanks to changes implemented by the Government. Can the Minister advise me on what steps have been taken to ensure that the regulation applied to small high street financial advisers and insurance brokers is both fair and proportionate, given the important service that they provide?
T6. Following reports that Hinkley Point C faces further delays, will the Chancellor revisit his decision effectively to write the French an extremely generous long-dated option and instead bring forward fall-back options?
We are working with the French Government, and all the signs are that they are committed to this project. This is a good example of how the United Kingdom, working with France and indeed attracting investment from Asia, is getting a new generation of nuclear power under way. That was promised for 20 years or more and did not happen, but it is now going to take place in Somerset.
I am proud to have been part of the Government who introduced the national living wage, but I wonder whether my right hon. Friend has had a chance to look at the report from the British Retail Consortium entitled “Retail 2020”, which talks about that and about the impact of internet shopping.
I did see that report yesterday. We all have to accept that the retail industry faces an enormous amount of change, particularly because of what is happening on the internet and the way in which people are shopping online. I personally think that one of the biggest changes we can make right now is to allow shops to open on a Sunday, which is the biggest single day for internet shopping. We cannot say that we want to protect our high street shops while in the same breath saying that they cannot open on one day every week, given that the internet is open 24 hours a day. We shall have a chance to vote on that question next week.
T7. The Chancellor’s statement on ECOFIN referred to the UK seeking a multilateral agreement on making the details of the tax paid by companies publicly available on a country by country basis. Will he tell us what measures he will take to achieve that, and on what timetable? As a first step, will he admit that his Google tax deal was not a great success, and does he accept the Public Accounts Committee’s call for full transparency?
The Public Accounts Committee has investigated HMRC deals in the past and it is of course welcome to do so again. It gave HMRC a clean bill of health on its approach to these things. We are introducing country by country reporting, and the regulations came into force last week. That is happening only because this Prime Minister put the matter on the agenda in this country and internationally, and I have been calling, at the EU and at the G20, for an international agreement on public reporting so that we can know what companies are paying in different jurisdictions rather than just reading reports about it.
The local economy in Hornchurch and Upminster comprises thousands of small businesses. Can the Chancellor offer any encouragement to the Federation of Small Businesses, which is pressing for tax simplification in order to reduce the burden of tax administration for small businesses?
T10. If the Chancellor believes that a strong steel sector is fundamental to a strong northern powerhouse, what steps is he taking to level the playing field for the steel industry, the foundation of our manufacturing and defence industries, so that it can have a prosperous future to match its prosperous past?
The steel industry faces a big challenge at the moment, and that is true in many other countries in the world, as the price of steel has collapsed. We have taken a number of steps to ensure the level playing field that the hon. Gentleman speaks of. First, we have taken the industry out of the energy levies that were imposing additional costs on it. Secondly, we have made sure that local areas that have had redundancies get the support they need. Thirdly, we have changed our procurement rules so that we can make sure we are buying British steel and taking into account the social impact of those steel purchases in making our value-for-money assessments. Fourthly, as I said in reply to an earlier question from him, we are working, through our partners in the EU, to make it clear that we do not and cannot support Chinese steel dumping, and that we need to take action against it.
My right hon. Friend the Chancellor will be well aware of the widespread and cross-party support for a children’s specialist accident and trauma department at Southampton general hospital, so may I urge him to give careful consideration to the bid put together by clinicians? I know they have sent it to him and are looking for support for a match funding bid.
I am aware of the case being made—a strong case, in my view—for the children’s facilities at the Southampton hospital. It is a case advanced by my hon. Friend and other colleagues, notably my hon. Friend the Member for Winchester (Steve Brine), who has pushed it, alongside her. We are looking closely at it and I will make an announcement in due course.
Let me follow the hon. Member for Airdrie and Shotts (Neil Gray) by raising the key issue of the apprenticeship levy, because the devolved Governments are moving towards elections and we need to know about this as soon as possible. Will there be a Barnett consequential attached to it?
Our intention is to use the principles of the Barnett formula to make sure that the devolved Administrations, not only in Scotland, but in Northern Ireland, do get the resources they need. Of course we would urge them then to spend those resources on training, but that is ultimately a matter for them and the people to whom they are accountable.
Given the importance of family investment in start-up businesses, particularly science and technology businesses, where a leap of faith is often required, will the Chancellor, in the Budget, consider lifting the restrictions on family investment under the enterprise investment scheme and the seed enterprise investment scheme, so that mum and dad can invest alongside everybody else on the same terms?
I am happy to take that as a Budget representation. I am sure my hon. Friend will understand that if he turns up on Budget day, he will see my response to it. The SEIS and EIS have been enormously successful. We have to make sure that the rules are tight enough so that they are supporting the kind of entrepreneurial activity we want, rather than being used as a vehicle for tax avoidance. I think we have got the balance right so far, but I am aware of good, positive proposals that people have put forward to improve it.
The Chancellor chose to give a puff to his desire for Sunday trading liberalisation, but is he aware of the study produced yesterday which showed that all there will be is a switch of activity from small shops to big shops, and that that will mean a loss of thousands of jobs? [Interruption.]
The hon. Member for Lichfield (Michael Fabricant) says that the Chancellor has already dealt with that question. As I have often had cause to observe, repetition is not a novel phenomenon in the House of Commons.
To repeat myself, Mr Speaker, I do not agree with the hon. Lady, because it has been the case that when we have extended opening hours we have not seen not a displacement of jobs, but an increase in jobs. That is the assessment from the retail industry. Of course, these arrangements exist in Scotland, in many European countries and in the United States. Many of those are countries with strong Christian faiths, so I do not think there is a contradiction there. We cannot in this House constantly say that we worry about our high street and then not allow high street stores to open on the day when the biggest level of internet shopping takes place. This is one of the answers to helping our high street. It is not the only one, but it is an important one.
North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire councils are currently preparing detailed regeneration plans. Can the Chancellor assure me that he will give them serious consideration, so that my constituents can gain maximum benefit from the northern powerhouse initiative?
Absolutely. We will give careful consideration—as I always do—to the proposals that my hon. Friend comes forward with to support North Lincolnshire and his own constituency. We have been able to make investments in new roads, reduce the tolls on the Humber bridge, and introduce enterprise zones. I would love to hear of any new ideas that he has.
Happy St David’s day to you, Mr Speaker.
The Chancellor often talks about repairing the roof when the sun is shining. Norway, a country the size of Scotland, managed to amass £810 billion in an oil fund when the sun shone. Just how much have the broad shoulders of the UK saved for a moment such as this to help north-east Scotland? Is the figure indeed zero?
We are providing support to Scotland, and that support is entrenched in the fiscal framework that we have agreed with the Scottish Government. The hon. Gentleman cannot duck his responsibilities. He wanted Scotland to be independent on 24 March—this month. If we had gone ahead with that—if the Scottish people had voted for it—there would have been a fiscal catastrophe in Scotland, because oil revenues have fallen by more than 90%. We had a question earlier from a Scottish National party Member—[Interruption.]
Order. I apologise for interrupting, but that was a very unseemly gesticulation by the hon. Member for Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Mr MacNeil). I remind him of his status in this House as the Chair of a Select Committee. He is an aspiring statesman and must conduct himself accordingly.
In response to an earlier question on productivity, my right hon. Friend mentioned the drivers of growth being investment in schools and investment in science and technology. Does he, like me, welcome the Government’s commitment to train 17,500 more teachers in science, technology, engineering and maths, and does he think that there is absolutely no time to waste in recruiting those teachers?
My hon. and learned Friend is absolutely right. It is one of the big national challenges to get more children, particularly more girls, studying STEM subjects at school. The key to that is to get more STEM teachers. We have a series of incentives to drive that forward. Of course through our school freedoms, schools also have the tools to recruit teachers themselves.