The Chancellor of the Exchequer (Mr Philip Hammond)
Thank you, Mr Speaker. I welcome the opportunity to take part in this debate today and to make the case to the House for backing the Prime Minister’s Brexit deal, ensuring a smooth and orderly departure from the European Union, delivering on the referendum decision of the British people and, at the same time, securing a close economic and security partnership with our nearest neighbours and most important trading partners. I will also make the case for rejecting the calls from those who would prefer to plunge the country into the uncertainty and economic self-harm of no deal and from those who would seek to undo the referendum decision and, in doing so, fuel a narrative of betrayal that would undermine the broad consent on which our democratic politics is based.
Mr Clive Betts (Sheffield South East) (Lab)
The Chancellor said recently that backing the Prime Minister’s deal would be better for the country than remaining in the EU. However, during the referendum campaign in February 2016, he said that a yes vote would lead to “very significant uncertainty” and would have a “chilling effect” on the economy. What information can the Chancellor share with the House that has caused him to have such a fundamental change of opinion?
Mr Hammond
I have always recognised that leaving the EU will have an economic cost, but the deal that the Prime Minister has negotiated minimises that cost. Our nation is divided on the issue, and I fundamentally believe that we have to bring the country back together in order to succeed in the future. This deal offers a sensible compromise that protects our economy but delivers on the decision of the British people in the referendum. My judgment is that, if we want to maximise the chances of our nation being successful in the future, this is the right way to go.
Sir Christopher Chope (Christchurch) (Con)
Did my right hon. Friend subscribe to the statement in the 2017 Conservative general election manifesto that no deal would be better than a bad deal?
Mr Hammond
Yes. As I have said in this House many times, at the beginning of the process, there were people inside the European Union who were contemplating a punishment deal for the United Kingdom—a deal designed to punish us for having the audacity to decide to leave the EU. Clearly, we could not have accepted such terms for our departure.
Several hon. Members rose—
Ms Nadine Dorries (Mid Bedfordshire) (Con)
The Chancellor mentioned no deal, so I wonder whether he can explain what no deal means. My understanding is that the rest of the world trades under World Trade Organisation rules with independent free trade agreements, so there is actually no such thing as no deal, is there? If we do leave—I do not buy the term “crash out”—we will trade on WTO rules, so that does not mean “no deal”, does it?
Mr Hammond
Yes, it is no deal. As I will say later in my speech, if we did leave the European Union without a deal, we would actually be the only advanced economy in the world trading with the European Union on pure WTO terms, with no facilitation agreements whatsoever. In my view, that would be a very bad outcome for the United Kingdom.
Stephen Timms (East Ham) (Lab)
I agree with the Chancellor that there will inevitably be an economic penalty from leaving the EU. Does he agree that having to comply with lots of rules set by the EU, over which we will no longer have any say—that will be the position under the withdrawal agreement—is part of the economic penalty that we will suffer?
Mr Hammond
It depends very much on what those rules are. Rules on the goods acquis, the part of EU regulation that deals with goods, are very stable and have been for many years. We know that our manufacturers in this country will continue to follow EU rules on goods, whether we choose to adopt those rules or not, so I think that the economic price of having such rules would be very small. In other areas, such as financial services, where rules are changing rapidly and where there is a great dynamism in the system, there could be much greater dangers for us in being locked into following rules over which we have no influence. That is why the deal we are putting before the House proposes a very different way forward for goods than for services, and particularly financial services.
I have observed this process at close quarters for two and a half years, and I am absolutely clear about one thing: this deal is the best deal to exit the EU that is available or that is going to be available. The idea that there is an option of renegotiating at the eleventh hour is simply a delusion. We need to be honest with ourselves that the alternatives to this deal are no deal or no Brexit. Either would leave us a fractured society and a divided nation.
Only the compromise of this negotiated deal—delivering on the referendum result by leaving the EU, ending the free movement of people and reasserting our sovereign control over our laws, while at the same time maintaining the closest possible trade, security and cultural links with the European Union to protect our jobs, our living standards and our values—can allow our country to move on. Only that compromise can bring us back together after Brexit is delivered, and we should remember the lesson of history that divided nations are not successful nations.
Maggie Throup (Erewash) (Con)
Does my right hon. Friend agree it is important that we have a deal that is not only good for the economy but brings our country together? The deal on the table is one that offers that, and it is one with which we should move forward.
Mr Hammond
I completely agree with my hon. Friend. That is the central theme of what I will say to the House today. Yes, leaving the European Union has a cost, but going back on the decision of the British people would also have an enormous cost for our country.
Sir David Evennett (Bexleyheath and Crayford) (Con)
Does my right hon. Friend agree that uncertainty is bad for our economy and very bad for businesses?
Mr Hammond
Yes, and we are already paying a price, and have paid a price, for the uncertainty on our future trading relationship with the European Union. The sooner we can restore certainty, the sooner we can get back on to a path of solid economic growth.
Mr Tanmanjeet Singh Dhesi (Slough) (Lab)
The Chancellor is being generous with his time. Can he clarify whether the Government’s analysis confirms that the half-baked Brexit deal that they are pursuing will actually leave our country permanently poorer?
Mr Hammond
No. In all scenarios, we expect that economic growth will continue and the economy will carry on growing. What we were looking at in the analysis we published last week is a ranking of five different scenarios based on their impact on the overall size of the economy over a 15-year horizon.
The theme of today’s debate, as Mr Speaker has reminded the House, is the economy, and the economy has always been at the heart of the UK’s relationship with Europe. It was definitely not the lure of political union but the prospect of jobs, wage growth, trade and prosperity that brought Britain into the European Economic Community, as it then was, in 1973—I was there, and I remember. For most of us who campaigned 43 years later to remain in the EU in 2016, it was certainly not the political institutions and the paraphernalia of the Union that provided the motivation to do so, but a hard-nosed appraisal of our economic interests.
The fact is that our economic and trading relationship with the EU has been built over 45 years, during which time our economies have shaped themselves around each other and become inextricably intertwined: supply chains criss-cross borders; workforces draw on talent from across the continent; and a firm in Birmingham can deal with a customer in Berlin as easily as one in Bradford—so much so that almost 65% of all UK trade is now with the EU or through EU trade agreements. These trading relationships and commercial partnerships were not built overnight, but in a no-deal exit many of them would be destroyed overnight, as the market access and free-flowing borders on which they are based were lost. Although new trade partnerships with countries outside the EU undoubtedly offer new and exciting opportunities for UK companies, the analysis the Government published last week is clear that the benefits flowing from new free trade agreements would not compensate for the loss of EU trade from a no-deal exit.
Andrew Selous (South West Bedfordshire) (Con)
On Tuesday, the House of Commons Library wrote to me to say:
“The backstop comes into force automatically, if the Withdrawal Agreement is signed, at the end of the transition period.”
This morning, the Prime Minister said:
“If we get to the point where it might be needed, we have a choice as to what we do, so we don’t even have to go into the backstop at that point.”
Can the Chancellor help to explain that because there seems to be a variance between those two statements?
Mr Hammond
The backstop remains as the ultimate default, but the agreement we have negotiated with the EU very importantly gives us the choice, if we are not ready to move to our new future partnership on 1 January 2021, to seek an extension of the implementation period for one or two further years. That is a very important part of the architecture of what we have negotiated. I make no bones about this—I have said it before. In my view, it would be much better for the UK to seek an extension of the implementation period if we need a further period of time before we are ready for the new long-term arrangements, rather than go into the backstop.
Richard Burden (Birmingham, Northfield) (Lab)
The Chancellor is making a very good case about what would happen if there were a no-deal Brexit. Indeed, in his opening remarks he described it as an act of “uncertainty and economic self-harm”. Given that the companies he has talked about, which depend so much on just-in-time deliveries in the motor industry and elsewhere, are most worried and concerned about the prospect of a no-deal Brexit, and as there is clearly not a majority in this House for a no-deal Brexit, although we may disagree about other things, why do we not unite and rule out that option?
Mr Hammond
The way to do that is to support the proposal that the Prime Minister has presented to the House, which represents a compromise, ensuring that we leave the EU and respect the referendum decision of the British people, but do so in a way designed to minimise any negative impact on our economy and maximise the opportunities for this country in the future.
Mr John Baron (Basildon and Billericay) (Con)
I totally concur with what my right hon. Friend said about divided nations, but may I urge him to be cautious about relying too heavily on economic forecasts? We all remember the Treasury, the Bank of England and the International Monetary Fund predicting economic woe by Christmas 2016 if we voted to leave, with talk of 500,000 extra unemployed, a do-it-yourself economic disaster and so on. It got so bad that in the end the Bank of England had to publicly apologise for getting it so wrong. Can we just make sure we keep things in perspective with regard to these economic forecasts?
Mr Hammond
I am grateful to my hon. Friend, because he gives me the opportunity to clarify for the House that these are not economic forecasts; they are modelled scenarios for what might happen in different circumstances. Like all economic modelling, they depend to an enormous extent on the assumptions that are made. The assumptions in this paper are transparent and the assumptions that the Bank of England made are also clear. My hon. Friend has made his point about the modelling that was done in 2016. I can only speak for the Treasury and tell him that a huge amount of work has been done since 2016 to update and upgrade the Treasury’s long-term model. That computable general equilibrium model is the one that has been used.
Mr Hammond
My hon. Friend is right. Of course, this work seeks to do something quite different: it looks at five different potential scenarios and ranks them in terms of the impact that they would have. I readily concede that it is more important to look at the ranking than the absolute numbers or ranges of numbers attached to them.
Several hon. Members rose—
Mr Hammond
I shall make a bit of progress, then give way again.
I was saying that the benefits flowing from new FTAs would not compensate us fully for the loss of EU trade from a no-deal exit. That is why we have fought so hard for a deal that delivers the closest possible trading relationship with the EU, while respecting the outcome of the referendum and giving ourselves the ability to form new trading arrangements with countries around the world. Today, the case for this deal is that, uniquely among the options open to us, it does deliver on our commitment to leave the EU and on our collective duty to protect the jobs and living standards of our constituents.
Gareth Snell (Stoke-on-Trent Central) (Lab/Co-op)
While the Chancellor is explaining the deal, will he explain to the House which trade unions he has sat down and briefed on the deal, and what their response was? The feedback that I have had from ordinary trade union members in my constituency is that, although this deal is preferable to no deal, it is still a long way away from the certainty that they would have hoped to have had in the proper arrangement that they were expecting.
Mr Hammond
The deal that is on the table provides the key elements that we will need to maintain our trading relationship with the European Union. It makes a commitment to maintaining our borders as openly and free-flowingly as possible. It eliminates tariffs, quotas, fees and charges. It will protect the vital supply-chain business that is at the heart of our trading relationship with the European Union.
Colin Clark (Gordon) (Con)
Does the Chancellor agree with the Governor of the Bank of England that stress tests have shown that under every scenario the financial system is robust? That should give the Government confidence to be equally robust with the EU in future negotiations.
Mr Hammond
The Governor is of course absolutely right. The modelling that the Bank has done has been tested against the financial policy committee’s stress tests to ensure that, even in the worst-case scenario, our financial system would be resilient. The work that we have done since 2010—including increasing banks’ capital ratios and introducing risk-reduction strategies around banks and financial institutions—has ensured that the system will be resilient, even against the most extreme circumstance that the Bank of England has modelled.
Nigel Huddleston (Mid Worcestershire) (Con)
With regard to the deal versus no-deal scenario, does the Chancellor agree that the problem with the WTO option is that it is silent on swathes of modern British industry, so it does not cover our economy completely? Aviation is one of the most obvious sectors that is not covered by the WTO option. It is very dangerous for us to go into a situation in which those sectors are not adequately covered.
Mr Hammond
My hon. Friend is right, but I think the most telling point about this issue is the one made regularly by my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for International Trade. If WTO terms are so fantastic and so good for a trading relationship, why do we need to negotiate free trade deals with all these other countries around the world? We already trade with them on WTO terms, but we clearly believe that we can do much more if we negotiate something better than WTO.
Angus Brendan MacNeil (Na h-Eileanan an Iar) (SNP)
The Chancellor is being very candid. According to his recently published long-term economic analysis, the Government’s two scenarios would result in a hit to GDP, or a lowering of the growth rate, of between 3.4% and 6.4% if there is a deal, and of between 6.3% and 9% if there is no deal. Will he confirm that this is indeed the choice the UK are putting before Parliament?
Mr Hammond
The hon. Gentleman is misinterpreting the analysis. These are not rates of GDP growth; this is an estimate of the relative size of the economy at a 15-year horizon under different scenarios. In all scenarios, we expect that GDP growth will recover and continue.
Angus Brendan MacNeil
Will the Chancellor put on the record what he thinks the hits will be? He said in response to a Labour Member that there would be a lower growth rate. What are the percentage differences in the two scenarios—deal and no deal—versus staying in the EU?
Mr Hammond
I am sorry but the hon. Gentleman is wrong. I did not talk about a lower growth rate. I am talking about a smaller overall size of the economy. It is our central view that, once the economy has moved to a new equilibrium, growth will resume in all these scenarios and that our economy will go on getting larger.
Mr Hammond
This is not an economic forecast. It is a modelling of five different scenarios. Our economic growth rate in 2033 will depend on a raft of other issues, not only on the outcome of this debate.
Jim McMahon (Oldham West and Royton) (Lab/Co-op)
Is it not the truth that there has not been time to consult with the organised trade unions because the Government have been consulting with the hard-line Brexiteers in the European Research Group instead of putting the national interest first?
My question is this: why did the Chancellor not support his Prime Minister in her pledge to end austerity in the Budget, which would have addressed many of the reasons for the divide in the nation he refers to?
Mr Hammond
I am not quite sure what the hon. Gentleman is referring to. In the Budget, I set out a clear plan for Britain’s future. I set out an indicative envelope for the spending review next year, which will show public spending increasing in real terms throughout the next spending review period. In most people’s definition, that is turning a very important corner for this country.
The economic analysis published by the Government last week clearly shows that, of the spectrum of outcomes for the future UK-EU relationship, the modelled White Paper scenario would deliver significantly higher economic output than the no-deal scenario, the FTA scenario, and even the EEA scenario. The proposed future UK-EU relationship is estimated to result in economic output around 7 percentage points higher than in the modelled no-deal scenario in the long run, once the economy has reached its post-Brexit equilibrium.
This is a deal that secures the rights of more than 3 million EU citizens living in the UK and around 1 million UK nationals living in the EU; a deal that takes us out of the European Union and sets a framework for an economic partnership with our European friends and neighbours that is closer than any other they have today, while allowing us to strike free trade agreements around the world; a deal that ends freedom of movement and regains control of our borders, not so that we can shut down immigration, but so that we can manage it in our own best interests, ensuring that our businesses and health service still have access to the skills they need—skills that we will need as we build on our fundamental economic strengths to give Britain the brighter future our citizens imagined when they voted in June 2016; a deal that delivers on the referendum result, while securing the achievements of the British people in rebuilding our economy over the past eight years; and, above all, a deal that can bring our country together again.
Mike Gapes (Ilford South) (Lab/Co-op)
The Chancellor just referred to British citizens living in EU countries. Can he confirm that, under this deal, EU citizens living in the UK will be in a better position than British citizens living in EU countries, because they will not have the ability they currently have to move freely between EU countries?
Mr Hammond
British citizens living in an EU country will be able to continue living in that country. They will not necessarily have the automatic right to relocate to another EU country.
Mr Hammond
At the same time, EU citizens living in the UK will have the right to continue living here.
Mr Hammond
The hon. Gentleman is very persistent. I will probably regret giving way, but I will do it anyway.
Pete Wishart
Let us hope not. I have tried this with the Prime Minister: can the Chancellor look the young people of this country in the eye and tell them that all the restrictions we will impose on EU nationals the EU will impose on our young people? The rights that he and I have to live, work and love across a continent of 27 will be lost to our young people. Will he now be straight with them and tell them that there will now be restrictions on their freedom of movement?
Mr Hammond
The deal we have negotiated will ensure the greatest possible level of freedoms and rights for UK citizens so that they can carry on living their lives and we can carry on working, collaborating and trading with our EU partners. I am completely convinced that of the options open to us this is the right way for the country to go forward.
If anyone on the Opposition Front Bench genuinely believes that there is a magic deal available that would see us retain all the benefits of EU membership but with no free movement, no payments into the EU’s budget and no state aid rules, they are sadly deluded. Labour calls for a Brexit that delivers the “exact same benefits” as we currently have. That is called remaining in the European Union and it means being in the single market as well as the customs union, and last time I checked that was not Labour policy. A customs union alone would not deliver those “exact same benefits”. It would not maintain supply chains, remove regulatory checks and non-tariff barriers, or deliver frictionless borders. So Labour’s policy fails its own test. The time for trying to have your cake and eat it has passed. It is now time for tough choices and practical solutions and for a focus on the things that really matter. It is time to deliver a “jobs first” Brexit, and that is what the Prime Minister’s deal does.
Melanie Onn (Great Grimsby) (Lab)
I would like to move the Chancellor away from the party political point scoring and to ask him a serious question about what reassurances he can give to companies in Grimsby such as Young’s, which relies on fresh fish products from Iceland and south Norway. Both are non-EU countries with EFTA and EEA agreements with the EU. How does this Tory withdrawal agreement impact on the certainty of future supply to an industry that employs 5,000 people in my area?
Mr Hammond
As I suspect the hon. Lady knows, after we leave the EU, we will be an independent coastal state, and we will be able to enter into agreements with Iceland, Norway and other countries to regulate quotas, how the fish are caught, the reciprocal rights of our fishermen to enter other countries’ waters and of their fishermen to enter our waters, and other such matters.
David Morris (Morecambe and Lunesdale) (Con)
According to the Department for Transport, if we crash out without this agreement, the hauliers of this country will have access to only 1,000 permits—and that to cover a range of areas from health products to food and furniture deliveries. This would be catastrophic for my constituency, which relies on haulage. Does my right hon. Friend agree?
Mr Hammond
My hon. Friend is right, and he takes me back to the question from my hon. Friend the Member for Mid Bedfordshire (Ms Dorries) earlier. If we were to leave the EU in a real no-deal scenario, with such issues left unresolved, we would be in a very difficult place. The small number of transit permits available to hauliers would be just one of the many issues that would cause considerable difficulty.
Mr Kenneth Clarke (Rushcliffe) (Con)
Before the Chancellor started giving way, he made the point that just being in the customs union was not replicating what we have at the moment, but does he accept that, were we to join Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein in the European Free Trade Association and, on top of that, agree a customs union that we would need to keep the Irish border open, we could keep a very high proportion of the economic benefits of membership, even if the House insists on proceeding to give up political membership and other aspects of the EU?
Mr Hammond
My right hon. and learned Friend is right that, strictly, the flow of trade in goods would be facilitated by such an arrangement, but there are two problems with the EFTA-EEA model. First, it would continue to impose on us the obligations of freedom of movement, which we believe the British people voted against in the referendum decision in 2016. Secondly, it would leave our financial services industry in particular extremely exposed to having to comply with a rapidly evolving body of EU regulation over which we would have no influence.
Albert Owen (Ynys Môn) (Lab)
I am listening carefully to the Chancellor. He mentioned frictionless trade, but where in the political declaration does it say “Guaranteed frictionless trade”? It said so in the Chequers agreement, but it seems to have been omitted in what we are voting on on Tuesday.
Mr Hammond
Under the political agreement, there is a commitment by the parties to working in good faith together to minimise any impediments to trade between us. We are confident that, with goodwill on both sides and the evolving technologies that are available, we will be able to design a very efficient and free-flowing border for UK goods and for imports from the European Union.
Vicky Ford (Chelmsford) (Con)
I thank the Chancellor for giving way. Does he agree that, under the withdrawal agreement, the UK will continue to trade on the same basis not just with the EU, but with the EEA and other countries, which means that companies such as Young’s of Grimsby would not face a cliff edge, but that if we vote against this agreement, then all is uncertain?
Mr Hammond
My hon. Friend is exactly right. One of the huge benefits of the negotiated deal that is in front of the House is the transition period, giving us another two years, to the end of 2020, of clarity and certainty for British businesses about how they will operate in the future.
Let me be clear about the economic benefits of this deal: a time-limited implementation period, as I have just said, giving people and businesses time to adjust; a deal that ensures citizens, both British and European, are properly protected; a political agreement to construct the closest economic relationship between the EU and any advanced economy in the world; a free-trade area for goods with no tariffs, no fees, no charges, and no quantitative restrictions; a commitment to an ambitious relationship on services and investment, including financial services; and for further co-operation across a wide-range of sectors from transport to energy and data.
Joseph Johnson (Orpington) (Con)
I am very grateful to my right hon. Friend for giving way. He mentioned financial services and the impact of any Norway-style arrangement on the sector. Does he not also acknowledge that the proposed deal that the Government are putting forward is not great for financial services by any means? The sector obviously employs many of my constituents in Orpington who come into London every day to work in the City in all manner of roles. I have read the Government’s economic analysis and it shows that, over the relevant forecasting period, the financial services sector will be hit by around 6% to the effect that our trade will be 6% smaller than it would otherwise be. That is a meaningful hit to one of our most competitive industries, and we do not have many globally competitive sectors, so it baffles me why we would willingly do that.
I wish to make one further point if I may and ask another question. The agreement that the Government are putting forward will mean that we will no longer have any direct influence on the EU’s rule making with respect to financial services. It is therefore all the more important that we maintain our ability to play a full part in representing the UK’s interests in global bodies such as the Basel Committee and the International Organisation of Securities Commissions. Article 219 says that we will have to follow the EU’s position on all those bodies. [Interruption.]
Mr Speaker
I think the House has captured what Jack Straw used to call the gra-vah-men of the hon. Gentleman’s point. I prefer the pronunciation gra-va-men, but there you go.
Mr Hammond
Let me say this frankly to my hon. Friend: there is no deal that is negotiable that involves leaving the EU and maintaining the financial services passport. That is a fantasy world outcome. There will not be passporting. What we have negotiated with the European Union is an enhanced equivalence approach that will allow us to maintain our vital financial services networks with the European Union in the areas where there is significant financial services trade between us and to do so in a way that will provide the reassurance that commercial companies need in London to continue operating.
A mere equivalence finding is of no use to a company operating a book of derivatives worth several trillion dollars when there could be an abrupt ending of the equivalence arrangement unilaterally by one side. There has to be a more structured basis for that co-operation in the future. We have agreed that with the European Union, and I absolutely agree with my hon. Friend’s point that, even though we will not have direct influence over new European Union rules, we can have a significant influence over the shaping both of the global rules and, indeed, the European rules.
Over many decades of membership of the European Union, the UK has had a huge influence over the EU’s financial services regulatory environment. We have done that not through voting power, but through the skill, the diligence and the commitment of our civil service and industry teams who have engaged in Brussels and who have provided their expertise to try to shape the European Union’s financial services regulation in a way that is effective and that works for us all, and we will carry on doing so in the future.
Robert Neill (Bromley and Chislehurst) (Con)
I am very grateful to my right hon. Friend for giving way and I very much appreciate the realistic point that he makes about what is on offer to my constituents in the financial services sector. Does he agree that it is precisely because this is the best deal that we are likely to get and that it gets us into transition where these important technical matters can be resolved that it has been welcomed by all the representative bodies of the financial services sector across the country?
Mr Hammond
That is exactly right. It has been welcomed by all the major bodies. It has been welcomed by the City of London. First, this deal gives us the transition period, which is a vital respite for business in preparing for the future, and it gives us a commitment to a future deal that will protect our economy and, in particular, our financial services sector.
At the Budget in October, I made a Brexit prediction. I predicted that a deal that creates confidence in a smooth transition and a close future partnership will not only protect our jobs, businesses and prosperity in the long run, but deliver a short-term deal dividend for Britain. The Bank of England last week published its modelling of a range of scenarios to assess the potential impact as the economy makes the necessary adjustment to reflect the new trading relationship between the UK and the EU. The Bank estimated that a negotiated deal could boost British GDP by 1.75% in the short term, as businesses and consumers alike express their confidence in the future, while leaving the EU on WTO rules and without a transition period could cause a recession, with GDP reduced by up to 7.75% and unemployment rising to 7.5%. The Bank of England is clear: a no-deal exit would mean jobs lost, food prices up, house prices down and wage growth lower.
Businesses have made their views clear. The Federation of Small Businesses called this deal
“a welcome step back from the no deal cliff edge.”
The Institute of Directors warned that only 14% of its members
“would be ready to cope with a no deal outcome in March”.
The CBI has described no deal as a disaster for the economy.
This House has before it a deal that can deliver the certainty that will unlock the potential of our economy and assure Britain of the brighter future it craves. Let us not be the generation who have to explain to our children and grandchildren why we let that opportunity slip from our grasp. Let us choose now to move on to that brighter future, not to go back to square one with continuing uncertainty, division and disharmony.
As we make this decision and exercise our solemn duty in this Parliament in the interest of the nation, let us not forget the progress that we have made and what we would be putting at risk with no deal: eight straight years of growth; employment at a record high; 3.3 million more people in work; higher employment and lower unemployment in every region and every nation of the United Kingdom; wages growing at their fastest pace in nearly a decade; and the proportion of low-paid jobs at its lowest for at least 20 years. Britain is leading the world in breakthrough technologies—from biotech to fintech, and from robotics to genomics—and at the cutting edge of a technological revolution that will underpin our prosperity and success for decades to come, if we get Brexit right.
Martyn Day (Linlithgow and East Falkirk) (SNP)
I have been listening carefully to the Chancellor’s speech. At the very beginning, he said that divided nations are not successful nations. I am inclined to agree with him, but how does he square that comment with a potentially differentiated deal for Northern Ireland that will leave Scotland at a competitive disadvantage?
Mr Hammond
We are clear that we have negotiated this deal as the United Kingdom in the best interests of the United Kingdom and every part of the United Kingdom.
Marsha De Cordova (Battersea) (Lab)
The Chancellor talks about record numbers of people in employment and says that unemployment is lower, but that is not the case in relation to disabled people. Does he agree that this Government’s record on disabled people is one of more disabled people out of work and more on lower wages?
Mr Hammond
The hon. Lady is simply wrong. We have record numbers of disabled people in work and that is a record of which this Government are extremely proud. She needs to go away and check her facts.
Helen Goodman (Bishop Auckland) (Lab)
I agree with what the Chancellor says about the dire problems caused by no deal. However, he described the transition period as a time in which business could prepare for the new world. The truth is that the Government will be negotiating in parallel with those businesses trying to make changes, so they will not know the destination and will not be able to use that time because the fact is that it is uncertain.
Mr Hammond
The hon. Lady is too absolutist. Yes, of course there is further negotiation to be done, but the shape and key elements of the deal are clearly set out in the political declaration. I have described some of them already today. Business will be able to begin to prepare. I completely accept that further clarity will arise during the ongoing negotiations in the transition period. I am sure that she has talked to businesses, so she will know that this is the way that business wants to go. The alternatives—of a no deal exit, or of trying to overturn the referendum decision and risk fracturing our country for a generation—are too awful to contemplate. We have to take this opportunity that is presented to us to protect our economy and to heal our country.
To protect the living standards of the people of the whole United Kingdom, we need to act now. We need to act now to end uncertainty, to protect jobs, businesses and prosperity and to begin to heal the divisions in our country. But what if we do not? What if we turn our backs on this opportunity of a negotiated exit and a transition to the future? I have heard that we have nothing to fear from no deal—nothing, that is, except a cliff-edge Brexit in just four months’ time; the end of frictionless trade with our biggest export market; restrictions on our citizens travelling in Europe; and being the only developed economy in the world trading with the EU on purely WTO terms with no customs facilitation agreements, no data sharing or protection agreements and no approvals regime to allow our industries to trade with their nearest customers and suppliers—just tariffs, paperwork and bureaucracy.
UK car exports would face tariffs of 10%. Many clothing exports would face tariffs of 12%. Agricultural exports would face even higher tariffs. Almost 90% of UK beef exports and 95% of lamb exports go to the EU, where they could face tariffs of over 70% and 45% respectively.
Ian Paisley (North Antrim) (DUP)
Did not the Bank of England, the Treasury and the IMF all incorrectly forecast economic woe if the people of the United Kingdom voted to leave in 2016? Indeed, they predicted 500,000 job losses before we even Brexit. As the Chancellor has outlined very well today, our economy is growing and, importantly, employment is increasing. There have been fantastic results since we voted to leave. If he was standing at the Dispatch Box today and arguing for a WTO agreement, the City of London and everyone else would still support him because they would have the leadership that the Government would be providing. The fact of the matter is that this country requires leadership to leave on WTO terms, not criticism about leaving.
Mr Hammond
I am afraid that the hon. Gentleman is just wrong on the question of the financial services community and WTO. The financial services community would not support a WTO exit. That would be the worst possible scenario for financial services, with no time for preparation. Frankly, given the role of financial services in our economy—7% of our GDP—and their even larger role in our fiscal economy, accounting for over 11% of our fiscal revenues, anything that damages that industry will be extremely damaging to our economy and our public services.
Mr Hammond
In the absence of any better offers, I will give way to the hon. Gentleman.
Steve McCabe
The Chancellor is as kind as he is funny.
If the Chancellor sincerely believes the situation that he has just described to us and if he cannot convince this House of that situation on Tuesday, will he resign because he has clearly lost the confidence of this House?
Mr Hammond
I regard my job as to go on making the case for a sensible middle way out of this situation. I do not believe that we can afford the economic cost of a no-deal exit, but I equally do not believe we can afford the political and societal costs of trying to undo the decision of the British people in the referendum. We have to find a negotiated way forward. The Prime Minister has presented us with the route forward, and we have to take it.
Bill Wiggin (North Herefordshire) (Con)
I am very reassured to hear what the Chancellor has just said, because he said in his opening statement that he felt that Brexit itself might be at risk, which of course is very much at odds with what the Prime Minister has promised us. Will he go on reassuring people like me that the will of the people will be followed by this Government?
Mr Hammond
My right hon. Friend the Prime Minister and I have said many times that the choice before this House is very simple: it is this deal, no deal or no Brexit. Those are the opportunities that we have to choose between.
Rachael Maskell (York Central) (Lab/Co-op)
One of the things that really concerns businesses is the availability of skills with this deal. At the moment, they know that there is a plan for growth, which the Government have in the light of their abysmal record on productivity, but that plan cannot be delivered if skills are migrating back to the EU. How will the Chancellor address that?
Mr Hammond
The Government are clear that freedom of movement will end as we leave the EU, but as I have already said, that is not the same as shutting down migration. Once we regain control of our own borders, we will run our immigration system in our own interests, taking account of the needs of British society and the British economy, ensuring that we have the skills needed for our businesses to operate and our national health service to function properly, but at the same time making sure that the incentives exist for our businesses to train and upskill our indigenous British workers. We have to make our choice as a nation.
Antoinette Sandbach (Eddisbury) (Con)
Key sectors in the north-west, such as the chemicals, aerospace, pharmaceutical, nuclear, and food and drink industries, involve high-paying, high-skilled jobs. Will my right hon. Friend comment on the impact on those jobs if this deal is not agreed?
Mr Hammond
My hon. Friend could have added that those industries also have a high trade penetration with the European Union, and they depend critically on maintaining open and free-flowing trade arrangements with it. The deal before the House today allows us to maintain those trading patterns with the European Union and protect our supply chains, businesses and commercial relationships, while also having the opportunity to go out and make new trading partnerships with friends, old and new, around the world. In my view, that is the best possible outcome for businesses in my hon. Friend’s constituency.
We have to make our choice as a nation, and it falls to this House to act on the nation’s behalf, setting aside narrow party interests and focusing on what is in the national interest of our United Kingdom. After two and a half years, it is time to choose and time for Britain to move on. This deal will ensure that we move forward as a nation, taking back control, protecting jobs, getting business investing again, growing, thriving, and bringing the nation back together. It sets the United Kingdom on a course for a prosperous future, with a close relationship with our biggest trading partner and the ability to strike trade deals with the rest of the world. It supports our economy and lets us get back to the priorities that the British people elected us to deliver: investing in the infrastructure and skills of the future, keeping taxes low, reducing our debt and supporting our vital public services. Let us get on with it. Let us back this deal, honour the referendum, protect our economy and work together in the national interest to build a brighter future for our country.
Christian Matheson (City of Chester) (Lab)
I was and remain a very firm remainer, but nevertheless I voted to activate article 50 because I wanted to respect the result of the referendum. After that, my responsibility is to secure what I believe to be the best outcome for the United Kingdom and my constituents. However, I must say that the more I hear about not just the lying in the referendum, but the manipulation of data and the cheating—and now allegations of foreign involvement—the less I respect it.
We hear that the Prime Minister is deserving of our respect for negotiating the deal and the continual promoting of it in the face of certain defeat. Again, for me, there is nothing to be respected about knowingly and deliberately driving the country off the edge of a cliff. On the Government’s own assessments, this deal will make the UK worse off and our people less prosperous and less secure. I cannot praise the Prime Minister for what amounts to a kamikaze approach in the face of clear evidence of impending economic damage—particularly to our manufacturing sector, with the lack of certainty over the hopes of frictionless trade.
From the outset, the Prime Minister has muddled and misrepresented. When she called the snap general election in 2017, she stated that the country was united, but Parliament was divided. She was entirely wrong: the country is more divided than ever under her leadership. After the general election, she might have reached out across the House to find support for the least damaging form of Brexit, although every form of Brexit is damaging. Instead, she chose to tack to the hard right and seek the sole approval of her own Brexit fundamentalists in the ERG. Yet these extremists will never be and have never been satisfied. They can never be thrown enough red meat, as John Major himself discovered.
This left the Prime Minister high and dry, clothed solely in the meaningless soundbites and slogans that have been the hallmark of this process. Indeed, I remain unclear about the point at which her slogan “No deal is better than a bad deal” morphed into “A bad deal is better than no deal”. A bad deal is what we have now. It makes us follow rules without having a say on those rules. Again, I am tempted to say that that would always have been the case if we were going to leave the EU, but still wanted to trade into that market while meeting the standards that that market demands.
There is no solution in the agreement to the question of the Irish border, largely because there is no solution possible that respects the Good Friday agreement aside from the UK remaining in the EU. We are told that technology will provide a solution, but as usual this is an empty soundbite. There is no technology available now, and no clue about what it will look like in the future. Technology may one day find us a cure for cancer, but that is no reason for me to start smoking now. Hon. Members will need to decide which is more important to them—the continuing peace in Northern Ireland and maintaining the integrity of the united Union, or leaving the European Union—because, certainly under this deal, we cannot have both. Business sectors have publicly stated their support for the Prime Minister’s deal, although leaked CBI emails demonstrate their true feelings, but all this deal will offer is two years of stability, during which they could up sticks and move to another part of the European Union.
Therefore, we must reject the false choice of the Prime Minister’s deal or no deal and start to chart our own route away from the ideological choice of Brexit. This is a simple one: do we want to be aligned with Europe, with its basic decent standards on food safety, consumer protection and rights at work, or do we try instead to align ourselves with deregulated, privatised Trumpist America? That is a simple choice and those are the only two options on the table.
Christian Matheson
It is absolutely the case and I will not take any heckling from the right hon. Gentleman.
We need to address concerns about free movement and the exploitation of migrant labour by bad employers, but there should still be an option to remain within the European Union and negotiate a much better deal than David Cameron would ever have come back with.
Barry Gardiner (Brent North) (Lab)
I congratulate not only Members on my side of the House today, but all those who have spoken in this debate, because what we have shown is testament to the passion and the force of argument and rationality that Members can present the House with at times such as this. I also want to pay tribute to you, Mr Speaker, for the fact that you have shown leadership by staying in the Chair for the entire proceedings of this debate.
The person I wish to start by quoting is not one of my own side, but the right hon. Member for East Devon (Sir Hugo Swire). He said:
“No one ever said it was going to be easy.”
Actually, on 20 July last year, the Secretary of State for International Trade informed the country that an agreement with the EU would be
“one of the easiest in human history.”
The Secretary of State for International Trade and President of the Board of Trade (Dr Liam Fox)
If we are going to have a sensible debate and if we are going to use quotes, they should be accurate and in context. As the hon. Gentleman knows, the point I was making was that the trade element—the part we have not yet negotiated with the European Union—should be simpler than most, because we would begin, unlike in most trade agreements, with regulatory alignment and legal alignment in trade.
Barry Gardiner
I know exactly what the Secretary of State said. In the following sentence, he said this would happen unless
“politics gets in the way.”
Clearly, politics has got in the way, but it is not the only thing. Yesterday, reality got in the way, with the release of the Attorney General’s written advice to Cabinet. The implications of this legal advice are that we could be locked into a position where the EU negotiates a new trade in goods agreement that might be beneficial for the EU but deeply disadvantageous to the UK. This could be a deal where we have no say in the negotiations but where the UK could be obliged to open up our markets, perhaps to the United States of America, without any reciprocal right of access for UK manufacturers into that US market. I know the Secretary of State will have reflected carefully on that outcome. In fact, earlier this year in his Bloomberg speech, he presaged just such a situation. He said:
“As rule takers, without any say in how the rules were made, we would be in a worse position than we are today. It would be a complete sell out of Britain’s national interests and a betrayal of the voters in the referendum.”
But in a few minutes, he will stand at that Dispatch Box and urge hon. Members from across the House to vote for it. I can only admire his flexibility.
So how did this mess come about? The Chair of the Public Accounts Committee, my hon. Friend the Member for Hackney South and Shoreditch (Meg Hillier), excoriated the Government for their failure to prepare. My hon. Friend the Member for Liverpool, West Derby (Stephen Twigg) focused on the rigidity of the Prime Minister’s red lines. Perhaps the most serious error, though, was, as my hon. Friends the Members for Ynys Môn (Albert Owen) and for Rutherglen and Hamilton West (Ged Killen) said, to try to exclude Parliament from the process. The Government tried to exclude us on the triggering of article 50, on the impact assessments, on the right to a meaningful vote on the deal and on the financial modelling, and of course we argued that Parliament had the right to see the full legal opinion prepared by the Attorney General. Their refusal was a blunder that resulted in an achievement unique in a thousand years of our history: a Government being held to be in contempt of their own Parliament—ironic, given that Brexit was supposed to be about the sovereignty of this Parliament.
It is hardly surprising, then, that now that the Prime Minister has finally brought her deal back to the House of Commons, it is a deal that Members on both sides believe is not in the best interests of the country. She used to say, “No deal is better than a bad deal”; now the motto seems to be, “Any deal is better than no deal.” In fact, the Prime Minister’s deal is not actually a single deal at all: it is a package, in which there is one deal with binding commitments by the UK on the things that the EU demanded that we settled before we leave—money, citizens’ rights and the Irish border—and another proposed deal, which contains only a wish list, with no binding commitments on the EU on all the things that the UK would like in terms of our future political, trading and security relationship. Both are packaged up with the transition period, during which the real final deal is supposed to be negotiated.
People have called it a blind Brexit, because we are unable to see what we will get before we leave the EU on 29 March, by which time we will have lost all further leverage. After President Macron’s comments, is there anyone present in the Chamber who thinks that it is mere coincidence that the final date to extend the transition period and avoid the backstop is exactly the same date as that for the ratification of an agreement on access to our waters and fisheries quota shares?
My hon. Friend the Member for City of Chester (Christian Matheson) pointed out that, although the Government say that the technology to avoid a hard border does not currently exist, in a staggering act of faith, they believe that it will be possible to achieve that by December 2020, when the transition period comes to an end. If the future relationship is not agreed by that date, the UK is faced with a stark choice: pay billions of pounds to extend the transition, or enter into the trade purgatory of the backstop arrangement.
Forty years of harmonisation of standards and regulations has resulted in UK companies being deeply embedded in complex supply chains. In the past few months, I have visited factories in all sectors. I have been to the ceramics factories about which my hon. Friend the Member for Stoke-on-Trent Central (Gareth Snell) spoke so powerfully when he told the House about the unions that he met and their fight. They are stressing that we must not have no deal, while not exactly being enamoured of the one that is on offer.
Barry Gardiner
The automotive sector—[Interruption.] The hon. Lady will understand that the purpose of summing up at the end of the day is to respond to all the comments, including hers, that have been made during the debate. That is what I will try to do.
I visited the automotive sector with my hon. Friend the Member for Crewe and Nantwich (Laura Smith). I spoke to the management, the unions and the workers. Their sector represents £18 billion-worth of exports to the EU. It has benefited enormously from our EU membership, and particularly from the customs union, which has allowed companies to streamline their supply chains and employ just-in-time systems.
I am not a pessimist about the future of our country. I do not say that the UK will be poorer if we accept the Prime Minister’s deal. But I do say, with the support of both the Treasury and the Bank of England, that it will be much poorer than we otherwise would be, by approximately 4% of GDP. My hon. Friend the Member for Sheffield South East (Mr Betts) spoke with clarity and passion about the differential impact that this would have on the poorest people and on the forgotten regions of our country, which need infrastructure investment.
Let us examine the potential upside: the new free trade agreement that the Secretary of State is so keen for us to do, particularly with our single largest bilateral trading partner, the United States. We have a trade surplus with the USA—a trade surplus that President Trump is determined to overturn. Last week, he suggested that a deal may now no longer be possible because of the way in which this deal proposes to align with the EU. President Trump made it clear that any trade agreement would involve aligning with American regulations and standards. Yes, of course, that means chlorine washed chicken, but it also means the US “Defect Levels Handbook”, which specifies the level of mice droppings or rat hairs that are permitted in our food—for example, 11 rodent hairs per 50 grams of cinnamon and 20 maggots per 100 grams of drained mushrooms. If anyone in this Chamber doubts it, they can read the handbook for themselves or they can see what is proposed by reading “Plan A+” launched by the original Brexit Secretary and by the hon. Member for North East Somerset (Mr Rees- Mogg) just recently. It proposes to remove parity-pay for posted workers; end limits on the hours that people can be asked to work; end the precautionary principle; say yes to pesticide residues and yes to hormone-disrupting chemicals in genetically modified organisms. Such regulatory divergence from the EU would substantially impact our ability to trade with our biggest, closest market. It would increase the risk profile—
Dr Fox
I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman for giving way. Is he aware that because of trade asymmetries—that is the way in which trade flows are measured transatlantically —the United Kingdom believes that we have a trade surplus with the United States, but the way that the US measures trade means that the US already believes that it does have a trade surplus with the UK. That rather undermines his case.
Barry Gardiner
Not at all. The Secretary of State will have read what President Trump has said recently. He knows that the President, as a protectionist, wants to put America first, not the UK.
That regulatory divergence from the EU would substantially impact our ability to trade with our biggest and closest market. The Minister for Trade Policy recognised the same. He noted that, “If we come out of alignment with EU regulations in this area, then there is a penalty to be paid in terms of frictionless trade with Europe.” That comes from the Secretary of State’s own team.
Even assuming that new trade deals are possible without these complications, what would these new agreements contribute to our GDP? The Bank of England has quantified any benefit at less than half a per cent—just 0.2% of GDP growth. The Government’s own assessment says that a no-deal Brexit would result in a reduction of 9.3% of GDP. Most MPs are clear: a no-deal Brexit cannot be allowed to happen. None the less, the Prime Minister is presenting her agreement as a binary choice between her deal and no deal. She urges MPs to vote for a deal that they firmly believe is not in the country’s best interest by threatening that if they do not, the consequences of no deal would be even worse. That is not an argument; it is blackmail. Most importantly, it is a false choice.
Earlier today, my right hon. Friend the shadow Chancellor set out an agreement that respects the key reasons why many people voted to leave—namely money, borders and law—and also ensures that we continue to have frictionless trade that protects our manufacturing industry’s just-in-time supply chains and the integrity of the United Kingdom.
We are at a critical point in our history and business needs certainty and stability. Our children need an optimistic future. Our country is deeply divided. I started by quoting the Secretary of State and remarking how flexible he has been in acquiescing to this deal. I conclude my remarks, exhorting him to be yet more flexible still and to recall his own words, which were quoted in The Mail on Sunday on 16 September 2012. He said:
“I believe the best way forward is for Britain to renegotiate a new relationship with the European Union—one based on an economic partnership involving a customs union and a single market in goods and services.”
The Secretary of State may not like it, but it sounds an awful lot like Labour party policy to me.
The Secretary of State for International Trade and President of the Board of Trade (Dr Liam Fox)
Well, that got a tumultuous welcome from the Labour Benches.
I thank right hon. and hon. Members on both sides of the House for their valuable and insightful contributions to the debate, delivered with passion but without the rancour referred to in the elegant and wise contribution of my hon. Friend the Member for Hazel Grove (Mr Wragg). I wish that more Members could have heard his wisdom on that subject.
Before I respond directly to some of the points raised in the debate, I think the House should take a moment to consider, at this pivotal moment of our nation’s history, the inherent strengths of the UK economy that we have been discussing today. As my hon. Friend the Member for Basildon and Billericay (Mr Baron) mentioned in his contribution, at the time of the referendum we were told that the simple act of voting to leave the European Union—not leaving the European Union itself, but voting to leave—would cause such an economic shock that we would lose half a million jobs, our investors would desert us and we would require an emergency Budget to deal with the ensuing fiscal imbalance. So it is worth just considering what has actually happened in our economy in that time.
We have added 700,000 to the economy, with more people finding work than at any time in the past 40 years. That is no accident. It is the result of good Conservative economic management—something that would be completely cast asunder were the Labour party, in its current hard-left form, ever to take office in this country.
Dr Fox
If I may, I will come to the hon. Lady’s contributions a little later.
This upward trajectory in employment shows no signs of slowing. Indeed, the OBR has calculated that we can add another 800,000 jobs without creating inflationary pressure, because there is still slack in the economy to do so. Throughout this debate, Labour has talked as though, post referendum, our economy is on its knees. Well, let me tell the Opposition that 2017 saw total UK exports rise by 10.9% compared with 2016, at a time when global trade grew by about 3.4%. British companies sold almost £50 billion-worth of mechanical machinery, £41 billion-worth of motor vehicles, £16 billion- worth of aircraft and £14 billion-worth of medical equipment. Since the referendum, we have increased our share of our GDP that we export from 28.3% to 30.5%, which is a very large increase by international comparisons—so much for Britain not making anything anymore. This is all before we even consider our world-leading services sector, which accounts for around 80% of UK economic output.
Stewart Hosie
The increase in exports is recognised. The nature of the exports is recognised. Why on earth do we want to put all that at risk by ending the ability to access those many countries with which the EU has an FTA that we are part of?
Dr Fox
If the hon. Gentleman is serious about automatically wanting to roll over all the agreements that the European Union has, I hope that he will vote for the Government’s motion next Tuesday, because that is exactly what would happen if we had a withdrawal agreement and a movement into the implementation period. All those agreements would automatically be safeguarded. He might want to think about that before he casts his vote.
Maggie Throup
Does my right hon. Friend agree that this deal will bring certainty for businesses by unlocking the investment that they are sitting on and that this is what we need for our future prosperity?
Dr Fox
As the Chancellor said in his introductory speech this afternoon, it is widely acknowledged that when there is an agreement, there is potential for a dividend because investment that might be being held back because of uncertainty around Brexit could come forward. That is probably particularly true of domestic investment, rather than foreign direct investment, which I will come on to.
Dr Fox
I heard the hon. Gentleman—calm down. Clearly, the vote to leave the European Union has not had the catastrophic effect on our economy that was predicted—quite the reverse—and it is worth making a point about the difference here between forecasts and scenarios. Throughout today’s debate, I have constantly heard scenarios portrayed as forecasts, but it is worth pointing out that, in a forecast, all variables in an equation are considered, and their combined effect is looked at and becomes a forecast. A scenario is the isolation of a single factor and the assumption that if nothing else changes, that is what may happen. Clearly, in the real world that is not what happens. It is not realistic to expect that there would be no potential shift, if necessary, in Government fiscal policy, or in the Bank of England’s monetary policy, or changes to what the Government will be able to do on tariffs. We have to be realistic and try to understand what those things are. To try to confuse forecasts and scenarios, intentionally or otherwise, is not helpful to the debate.
Albert Owen
The right hon. Gentleman is right to tell the House that George Osborne got it completely wrong with the panic measures and emergency Budget that he was going to introduce, as he did on eliminating the deficit. The Secretary of State is laying out different scenarios. What forecast would he like to give the House for how he sees the state of the economy within x amount of time after leaving the European Union?
Dr Fox
Again, that is exactly the same pattern. We want a continuation of good economic management for the United Kingdom that continues to provide jobs and prosperity in our country and record investment in its infrastructure. I can forecast that if the Labour party was ever to take office with its crazy spending plans, the financial and economic consequences for the prosperity of this country would truly be catastrophic.
Nigel Huddleston
I appreciate the positive and optimistic picture that the Secretary of State paints of the UK economy and our potential. Does that not demonstrate that it is always better to have a Conservative Secretary of State for International Trade flying round the world and talking Britain up, rather than a Labour one talking Britain down?
Dr Fox
Talking Britain down is what people do when they cannot bear the fact that the truth tells us that our economy is doing well, that exports are at record levels, that inward investment into the United Kingdom is at record levels and that unemployment is at a record low level and employment at a record high level. Labour Members hate all those facts because they go against their basic narrative that Britain is failing and somehow needs to be rescued by an utterly inept Labour party.
Sarah Jones
I am slightly confused about the notion that the economy has been managed well by the Government when we have nearly the slowest growing economy in the industrialised world. We have no investment, and our debt-to-GDP ratio is pretty stagnant. We are a failing economy with low wages, and we do not have the growth of other industrialised nations that are way ahead of us. The Government are not managing the economy well.
Dr Fox
Once we get out of the realms of fairy tales and consider reality, we see that the unemployment rate in the United Kingdom is 4.1%—almost exactly half the level in the eurozone, which is 8.1%. Our exports are growing faster than in most other countries in Europe, with the exception of Germany, and investment in our infrastructure is at record levels.
Barry Gardiner
As, indeed, I twice welcomed the Secretary of State. Will he confirm whether he has seen Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs statistics on regional trade in goods for the third quarter that were published this morning? They show that all regions of the United Kingdom are importing more than they are exporting, and we therefore have a large balance of trade deficit.
Dr Fox
I hate to bring this to the hon. Gentleman’s attention—it will no doubt come as a shock—but we have had a trade deficit since the 1980s. In fact, one of the few times when we have not was in February this year, when the UK became a net exporter for the first time in some time. The hon. Gentleman will no doubt be overlooking those facts because they do not suit his narrative.
Sir Oliver Heald
I pay tribute to the work done by my right hon. Friend in talking to our trading partners around the world in contemplation of having new trade agreements once we are into the implementation period. Does he agree that one of the strengths of the deal that the Prime Minister has negotiated is that we can go into the implementation period, negotiate, ratify and sign the trade deals, ready to go? If we do not take this deal and just fall out of the EU, we will not get that chance, so it is very important that we do take it.
Dr Fox
My right hon. and learned Friend is right. It is certainly true that the draft political declaration was not as favourable to an independent trade policy as the final declaration is, given the changes that the United Kingdom insisted on in that negotiation. I was much heartened by those changes, not least because the declaration talks of building on and improving customs co-operation, not just building on it, and it cross-references the other elements of that to include protection of our independent trade policy.
Mr Simon Clarke
On the subject of forecasts and scenarios, may I refer my right hon. Friend to Open Europe’s excellent report, published this week? It is clear that the gains from artificial intelligence over the next 10 to 15 years will more than outweigh any conceivable loss from any scenario surrounding our exit.
Dr Fox
Indeed—my hon. Friend is right to say that that was correct in all scenarios. The doom and gloom pushed in some quarters is not consistent with the reality of Britain’s economic performance.
Now is the time to raise our sights and acknowledge that there is a world beyond Europe and there will be a time beyond Brexit. The referendum settled the question of our departure from the European Union. This House voted overwhelmingly to hold that referendum. The British people voted on the understanding that we would enact the result.
In 2016, we did not have a consultation with the British public; we were given an instruction to negotiate this country’s withdrawal from the European Union. That point was made in powerful speeches by my right hon. and learned Friend the Member for North East Hertfordshire (Sir Oliver Heald) and my hon. Friends the Members for Tonbridge and Malling (Tom Tugendhat), for West Worcestershire (Harriett Baldwin), for Berwick-upon-Tweed (Anne-Marie Trevelyan) and for Stafford (Jeremy Lefroy), among others. They all come from different parts of the political debate—a clear indication that we have to find a compromise that makes this workable. The withdrawal agreement achieves just that. Most importantly, it enacts the democratic will of the British people.
I remind the House that this is the only deal on the table. It has been painstakingly negotiated by both sides and of course we do not have every single thing that we wanted—but then again, neither did the EU. That is the nature of international agreements. The deal is a compromise, as was pointed out by my right hon. Friend the Member for Mid Sussex (Sir Nicholas Soames) in an outstanding, personal and passionate speech, the likes of which we would love to hear more of in this House. That message was echoed by my hon. Friend the Member for Eddisbury (Antoinette Sandbach) and my right hon. Friend the Member for Ashford (Damian Green).
Do I think the agreement is perfect? No, I do not. Did I think it would be? No, I did not. But does it do enough to get us out of the European Union? Yes, it does. For those who want another referendum, let us be very clear: the one thing that will not be on offer in any further referendum, just as it was not in the last one, is the status quo. The status quo has never been on offer; this is a dynamic progression in the European Union. The EU is committed, as it has been since the treaty of Rome, to ever closer union. We wish our European friends well in that endeavour, but it is not the right course for Britain. We must be free from the one-way ratchet of federalism, as my hon. Friend the Member for South Dorset (Richard Drax) said in his powerful intervention.
Ian Paisley
It was Samuel Johnson who observed that nothing so concentrates the mind like a hanging. As the gallows are being built next Tuesday for this withdrawal agreement, can the Secretary of State confirm whether any discussions are taking place about putting this motion off or about altering it in any way, or are the Government fixed on walking towards those gallows?
Dr Fox
The Government will continue to make the case for what they believe is a balanced and reasonable agreement. But of course the Government will want to talk to Members and want to look to ways to give reassurance to the House wherever we are able to do that.
Under this agreement, we will be free to decide for ourselves who comes to the UK, free to decide who fishes in our waters, free to decide how to support our farmers, free to open new markets around the world to the best that Britain produces and free to consider new ideas such as the free ports that my hon. Friend the Member for Cleethorpes (Martin Vickers) outlined today. Above all else, the withdrawal agreement and the political declaration provide what Members on both sides of the House were calling for on behalf of business: stability and certainty; a firm foundation on which to continue to operate across the EU, which remains one of the most important of our export markets.
Vicky Ford
Labour Members seemed to suggest that they wanted to tear up the withdrawal agreement and go and negotiate something different with Brussels. Does my right hon. Friend agree that all trade agreements take time to negotiate, and that this withdrawal agreement gives us the breathing space to finalise that trade agreement and tearing it up is irresponsible?
Dr Fox
One thing that perhaps has not been fully understood in the public domain as a result of the complexities around Brexit is that it does not matter what model we want to have as the future partnership— we have to have a withdrawal agreement if there is to be any continuity. That is part of the article 50 process. We have to have a withdrawal agreement with a view to the future relationship that we will have. That is where the backstop comes in. The Irish Government, in particular, made it very clear that they would not be willing to contemplate a withdrawal agreement unless it had certain guarantees that are embodied in the backstop.
On that subject, it is very clear, and I entirely understand, why many of my colleagues do not like the concept of the backstop as it is constructed. I have to say that I share, as does the Prime Minister, many of those same anxieties. It comes down to a question of trust, and as the Attorney General said in his evidence to the House the other day, it comes down to a balance of risks. Many in the House have made it very clear throughout the day that they would not trust the European Union to release Britain from the backstop. That is a big worry that many of my colleagues share.
But it is equally true to say that, if we cross to the other side of the channel, we find those who take the view—which I understand is very difficult for some in this House to grasp—that this is a great and wily move on the part of the United Kingdom, because if it does not get what it wants in the future economic partnership, it could park itself in the backstop, not making any financial contribution and not having free movement, but having access to the single market. There are those in other countries who say, “Why should our taxpayers pay for the UK to have that privilege?” It would be very difficult for the Commission, which would ask, “What do we tell Norway and Switzerland, which do have to pay for that privilege of access to the single market?” We have to try to understand that this does work in both directions, difficult though that may be for us conceptually.
Richard Drax
My right hon. Friend and I have had many face-to-face talks. This is not a wily move by the United Kingdom. This deal will allow the United Kingdom to leave the EU. The backstop very clearly, and we have heard it from the Attorney General, means that we may not be allowed to leave unilaterally—so stuck in it. It is not a wily move and the compromise down the middle deal has upset everybody. We need the unilateral right to leave this institution, as the people of this country instructed us to do.
Dr Fox
It is certainly true that there has been some movement on this issue. Originally it was envisaged that the backstop had to be permanent. Now the agreement is clear that it is designed to be a temporary measure. We should understand that, if we do not like the whole concept of the backstop here, it is also not liked in continental Europe. That should be the biggest incentive we have to never get there and to reach a trade agreement on a future partnership.
I was struck by the contribution of my hon. Friend the Member for Morecambe and Lunesdale (David Morris), who made a point that is worth reflecting upon. Had David Cameron brought this country back a deal that said, “You can be outside the single market, the customs union, the common fisheries policy and the common agricultural policy, make no contribution and end free movement,” I wonder what the reaction would have been at that point in history. That is the agreement we are talking about today. I know that I, for one, would have been biting his right hand off for an agreement like that.
Jim Shannon
In December 2017, I sought assurance from the Prime Minister and her reply to me was:
“I am very clear that we will not be a member of the single market or the customs union, and we were not proposing that any part of the United Kingdom will be a member of the single market or the customs union separate from the rest of the United Kingdom. The whole of the United Kingdom”—
that is the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland—
“will be out of the internal market and the customs union.”—[Official Report, 11 December 2017; Vol. 633, c. 48.]
It is understandable why, when I see the legal agreement, which says something completely different, I greatly mistrust what I am told by those in government at this moment in time.
Dr Fox
The Government have the best interests of the whole Union at heart, which is why, for example, when we negotiate trade agreements, they are for the whole United Kingdom and not partial. The question was raised yesterday at the International Trade Committee whether the Government would implement during the backstop any trade agreement with the rest of the United Kingdom but not Northern Ireland. That would be very difficult to justify, exactly on the terms that the hon. Gentleman mentioned.
One of the most interesting speeches of the day was that of the shadow Chancellor, the right hon. Member for Hayes and Harlington (John McDonnell). In reply to the hon. Member for North Antrim (Ian Paisley), he said that the backstop would not be needed under Labour’s plans because there would be a customs union. That is patently untrue. The regulatory gradient that would exist would not remove the need for a border and would address neither the anxieties of the Irish Government nor those of us in the United Kingdom who believe in the integrity of the Union.
The right hon. Gentleman said that Labour would negotiate a “comprehensive customs union”, with a say in future trade agreements. Let me tell him what nonsense that is. Under EU law, the EU has exclusive competence over its common commercial policy, which includes trade agreements under article 207. The EU treaties set out clear provisions for concluding EU FTAs that provide a role for EU member states and the European Parliament. Those treaty provisions do not permit a non-EU member state—even one in a customs union with the EU—to play a decision-making role in concluding EU trade agreements. That was nonsense. It was another piece of ill-conceived Labour fantasy.
What we have heard today from those on the Labour Front Bench is an ill-researched, ill-understood, unrealistic and incredible policy. As we all know, Labour—to the great irritation of their socialist allies across Europe—are simply playing politics with this issue, at a time of great national decision making. They are out of their depth and not up to task.
Jim McMahon
On the backstop issue—the Secretary of State seems to have skirted it when challenged on it a number of times—the letter from the Attorney General, which has been sent to Members, was very clear that
“the Protocol, including Article 19, does not provide for a mechanism that is likely to enable the UK lawfully to exit the UK wide customs union without a subsequent agreement”,
and that remains the case even if negotiations have broken down. The points that have been made are accurate and the Secretary of State has managed to skirt around that without answering it directly. So answer it directly.
Dr Fox
No, I answered the question. What I was concentrating on was excoriating the Labour party for the policy that it has set out today—a policy that is delusional because it does nothing that it actually claims it does. To the irritation of the European Union, the shadow Chancellor and his team do not even appear to understand the European law that they are praying in aid for their own ridiculous case.
John McDonnell
I say to the right hon. Gentleman: do not judge our ability to negotiate on the basis of the incompetence his party has shown for two years.
Dr Fox
Perhaps the right hon. Gentleman can tell the House—I will give him the opportunity—under which articles of a European treaty does the EU allow a non-member to have a say? Under which treaty? [Interruption.] For those Members who cannot lip-read, it appears the shadow Chancellor was saying that he would singlehandedly be able to rewrite EU treaties to be able to accommodate Labour party policy. What a shambles of an approach to a national negotiation.
Let me deal with a couple of other issues that have been raised in the debate.
Dr Fox
If I may, I will continue.
In the Select Committee yesterday, my hon. Friend the Member for Yeovil (Mr Fysh) raised an issue that I would like to address specifically. He was concerned that the backstop rules would bind the UK to EU state aid rules. I understand that he was specifically concerned about the defence sector, which has a major role in his constituency. Having taken advice, I am happy to inform him that, under the backstop, the UK would still have an exemption from state aid rules in respect of defence measures.
One of the themes today that I really feel I have to deal with is the constant refrain from Labour Members about the causes that led people to vote leave. They talked about everything except that people were unhappy with membership of the European Union, and we got the same condescension and the same patronising attitudes. People voted to leave the European Union because, after 40 years of experience of moving from the Common Market into the European Union with greater and greater politicisation and moving away from the concept of an economic union, they did not like it. They did not like someone having legal authority over them. They did not like someone else determining how to spend their money or someone else determining their borders.
We need to be clear about some of the alternatives being put forward.
Dr Fox
I will not give way again.
My hon. Friend the Member for Gloucester (Richard Graham) was clear that we must beware of some of the siren voices on other alternatives, particularly the EEA/EFTA option. We would pay highly for such an option. We would have to negotiate membership from outside the EU. The EU members as well as the EFTA members would all have to agree such a membership. We would have full regulatory alignment inside the single market and have less freedom on future trade agreements than we have under the agreement being put forward by the Government. We would be hamstrung by rules on our financial services—not even able to set the rules in our own City—and we would have full freedom of movement applied to us. It could not be further from what the public voted for in the referendum.
Dr Fox
I will not give way again.
The Government have made it clear that we want to take a balanced approach to the question of our future trading prospects. We acknowledge the need to maximise our access to the EU market, but without damaging our potential to benefit from the emerging trade opportunities in other parts of the world. I remind the House that the International Monetary Fund has said that 90% of global growth in the next five years, bringing its forecast forward, will occur outside continental Europe.
Ambitious arrangements have been made in the political declaration for services and investment—crucial to this country—arrangements that go well beyond WTO commitments and build on the most ambitious of the EU’s recent FTAs. But we have also been clear that our future relationship with the EU would recognise the development of an independent UK trade policy and not tie our hands when it comes to global opportunities. The 27 nations of the EU constitute some of our largest trading partners. As a whole, some 44% of this country’s exports of goods and services still go to the EU, although that proportion has diminished somewhat over the past decade or so. We have set out an approach that means the UK would be able to set its own trade policy with the rest of the world, including—let me be very clear—setting our own tariffs, implementing our own trade remedies and taking up our own independent seat at the World Trade Organisation. It is at the WTO and like bodies that proper global liberalisation is likely to take place. In an economy that is 80% services-orientated, the liberalisation globally of services will have a far greater impact on the future prosperity of the United Kingdom than anything that is likely to be done on a bilateral agreement in goods, which has largely been liberalised over the past 20 or so years.
Britain is well prepared for a global future. No other country has the same combination of fundamental strengths, which will allow us to thrive in an age where knowledge and expertise are the instigators of success. The inward investment into this country in recent months is testament to that. Not only have we maintained our place in global FDI—we have improved it. According to the UN, in the first six months of 2018, Britain was second only to China and ahead of the United States in terms of inward investment because of the strong economic fundamentals of this country that have been set down since 2010 by the Conservative Government. Our export and investment performance shows that the sceptics have been wrong and that Britain is flourishing. The divisions of the referendum now need to be consigned to the past. It is time to set aside our differences and lead our country to a future of freedom, success and prosperity.
Let us be clear about one thing. There are those who claim, and it has been claimed today, that Parliament can override the result of the referendum because Parliament is sovereign. I say this to them: on this particular issue Parliament subcontracted its sovereignty to the British people when it said, “We cannot or will not make a decision on this particular matter. We want the people to take this decision and issue an instruction to Parliament.” The people of this country made that decision and issued that instruction. If we want to retain the public’s faith in our democratic institutions, it is time for Parliament to live up to our side of the bargain. In politics, we cannot always have the luxury of doing what we want for ourselves, but we always have an abiding duty to do what is right for our country. I commend this motion to the House.
Ordered, That the debate be now adjourned.—(Gareth Johnson.)
Debate to be resumed on Monday 10 December (Order, 4 December).
Richard Graham
On a point of order, Mr Speaker. Earlier, I intervened on the hon. Member for Dundee East (Stewart Hosie) to make a point about the difference in sentencing by courts of EU nationals and those from other countries. I want to make it clear that I intended no disrespect to European nationals, but I made the point clumsily—I illustrated it clumsily. I therefore want to apologise to anyone who took offence. I promise the House that that was absolutely not intended.