Middle East Peace Settlement

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 14th January 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, I warmly congratulate my noble friend Lord Soley and will raise only a few headlines. First, on the context, there is turmoil throughout the Middle East and north Africa region, much of it interconnected. No one can now plausibly blame Israel for that turmoil, with Israel itself being an oasis of stability. Nevertheless the current Israeli Government, with their settlement policy, are surely placing obstacles in the path of a two-state solution, just as the Palestinians raise their own obstacles to peace, as the noble Lord, Lord Palmer, emphasised.

Secondly, the EU’s interests and those of its member states are directly involved throughout the region, not just because of refugees and terrorism. We have a clear interest in seeking to stabilise the region on democratic lines.

Thirdly, I recall the US jibe against Europe: “We do the cooking; you, the Europeans, do the washing-up”. There is surely an element of truth in this. It is Secretary Kerry who has taken the lead, both on the Middle East peace process and over Syria. Yet it is fair to say that the noble Baroness, Lady Ashton, is playing a key role on behalf of the European Union in the rapprochement with Iran, and not just because of the EU sanctions. Is the main strategic political role always to be led by the US and does the EU mainly have a secondary role in institution-building and humanitarian aid? Even if this is inevitable there is surely a key, if subordinate, political role for the EU, not only over Iran but over the quartet and the Syria problem. We should also not decry the washing-up or soft power role. For example, the EU and its member states have spent more than €1 billion in funding Syrian refugees. The EU has also offered attractive carrots to the Palestinians.

Finally, perhaps the Middle East is a test case for the new European External Action Service after its apparent success in Kosovo. By using all its available instruments, the EU has a serious role. There has been real progress on the immediate humanitarian side. In the longer term, there is much EU experience in the building of viable civil society institutions, the rule of law and human rights. This is particularly seen now in Tunisia, the cradle of the Arab awakening.

Back to Palestine: the EU is the largest provider of development aid to the Palestinian territories yet there is surely insufficient conditionality for all the money which is given. Last December, the European Court of Auditors concluded that EU assistance to Palestine has been reasonably effective but it highlighted many areas of concern. I have two final questions. Will the Government press for these to be addressed and, generally, will they seek to make the EU’s political weight in the region more commensurate with our financial contribution?

European Union (Referendum) Bill

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Friday 10th January 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, the substance of what the noble Lord, Lord Wakeham, said, is surely that this House has no serious role in the debate; we should pack up now and go home. The normal position of this House as an advising House, looking coolly at what comes from another place, would be thrown out of the window. We should simply say. “They have decided, full stop. We should go home, because any amendment might scupper the Bill”. Is the noble Lord really saying that we should not pass any amendment because of that danger?

[Lord Wakeham]

I did not say that at all. If noble Lords want to vote against it, they can vote against it, but they should not pretend that there is any alternative.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

I am not pretending at all; any amendment may well have certain consequences.

I am reminded of the noble Metternich, the great leader who, when news was brought to him of the death of his opposite number, the Russian ambassador, was alleged to have said, “What was his motive?”. We are quite entitled to ask of the Bill: what is the motive? What has changed the view of the Prime Minister and the Foreign Secretary over the past two years? Can it be anything other than the rise of UKIP? I congratulate the UKIP representative on the influence that the party has had on the Government.

Is it just the result of looking at opinion polls or the taking of soundings by a well padded Lord? Is it the fact that the Conservative Party has no confidence in the word of its leader, who has said that he would certainly have a referendum, and wants to tie him down? Equally, surely the Conservative Party has no confidence that it will win the next election. As many Members of your Lordships’ House have said, no Parliament can bind its successor, so this is a total charade. It may be a signal, but it is a signal only of the divisions within the Conservative Party. This is a partisan Bill and should be treated as such.

I could linger on the details of the Bill, but they are matters for Committee: the Electoral Commission, the wording of the question, whether there should be a threshold and the precise electorate. I just want to make three brief reflections at this stage.

First, there is the problem of the alternative. The Prime Minister put it well when he said that,

“the problem with an in/out referendum is it … only gives people those two choices: you can either stay in with all the status quo, or you can get out”.

Surely, if we seriously wanted to ascertain the views of the great electorate—Rousseau’s “popular will”—we should ask them, “What is the alternative?”, and therefore have questions on that. Is it the fact that you, the people, would want to be wholly alone? Is it the fact, as the noble Marquess, Lord Lothian, said, that you would wish to evolve some sort of new, free-trade relationship with the Commonwealth? It is not clear that any members of the Commonwealth seriously want to do that. Certainly India would not. Perhaps Canada would, but you really need two to tango and there is no traction in that.

What about the Norwegian example? There is a continuing debate in Norway—I am part-Norwegian—and the Norwegians certainly know that with the single market, they are told without any serious input what they should accept. That is hardly democratic, but it is the current reality of the Norwegian relationship with the European Union. What about the Swiss? No—surely, rather than going into the emptiness of a void, there should be some way of ascertaining, if that be the case, what it is that the people want. What are the so-called alternatives?

I shall not linger on my second reflection, because the point has been made often, but the date of 2017 is wholly arbitrary and unrealistic. Since the Prime Minister has said that any negotiations will not start until after the 2015 general election, can the position be such that we will know clearly what is on offer from our European partners and that all the various ratification processes will have been gone through? The only question that can be put is: do you, the people, believe that the Government should continue along the course they have set? What are the prospects of a radical new deal and of it being done and dusted and ratified by 2017? The Prime Minister is not going about it very well. He must have read over Christmas the book, How to Lose Friends & Alienate People, because he has already put off a potential ally in Mr Sikorski of Poland and harmed his relationship with Monsieur Mitterrand.

[Noble Lords]

Monsieur Hollande.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

I am sorry, Monsieur Hollande. Already, the Prime Minister has given a clear signal to our partners in terms of the opt-out on justice and home affairs. If you are serious about the European Union, you have to be seen as part of the team if you are to achieve your objectives—so how would he define success?

Finally, it is an illusion to imagine that having the referendum would result in closure. Many colleagues have confessed, and my own confession is that in the 1974-75 campaign, I stood on campaign platforms with Mr Heath. I have not changed my mind and it is an illusion that we can somehow get rid of the spectre of Europe from our body politic. I recall Mr Benn at that time telling me that it would lead to closure, yet almost immediately afterwards he was campaigning for an exit from Europe. The separatists in Quebec, who almost succeeded in the Quebec referendum of 1995, have not suddenly forgotten their separatist ambitions because they keep on losing referenda. No, the clear message—I see the clock—is that, yes, the Prime Minister is right to seek to negotiate, but he should seek to negotiate in the right spirit, showing that he is a member of the team, and not bring to this House a narrow, reckless Bill for partisan reasons.

British Indian Ocean Territory

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Wednesday 27th November 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, it is good that my noble friend Lady Whitaker has raised the plight and the future of the Ilois as, in the words of the noble Lord, Lord Luce, a considerable black mark on our late colonial history, which has been revealed in documents provided for various court cases. Of course, the Ministers and civil servants involved are now either dead or retired. Most of the Ilois have no personal knowledge of life on the islands. Things have moved on remarkably from that black mark in the late 1960s. We should perhaps partially understand the problems of those decision-makers in the context of the Cold War. Strategically, our ally, the US, needed a secure base, and the local population was cleared—indeed, sacrificed—to provide that. Successive UK Governments have since ignored the problem, except when forced to take note during litigation.

Of course, more weight is now given to the case for the islanders, but the strategic importance of the islands to the US remains: a secure base within easy distance of that most volatile region, the Middle East. Presumably the United States will wish to renew the lease in 2016. It will have to be fully consulted on future plans as, as all colleagues have said, will the Government of Mauritius. Hence, I ask: have the US authorities given any clear indication that they are prepared to be helpful not only in employment of those Ilois who so wish but, for example, in the use of the airfield to supply those Ilois who choose to return?

The complex history is set out very well in last December’s decision of the European Court of Human Rights, where proceedings started almost 10 years ago. There have been many excuses over the years. The first is that there is no settled population, only migrant workers. That was shown conclusively to be false. The second was that adequate compensation was offered and accepted as full and final settlement. That was confirmed by the courts and, indeed, the European court. Global warming and rising sea levels make a return to some of the islands precarious. Again, there is the excuse that since the evacuation the Ilois have been given the opportunity to settle in the UK, with all the benefits of life in a developed country. Will life under the palm trees be attractive, particularly to the younger generation who have seen the bright lights of the West? Questions must be asked about the viability of the old way of life, as described in another context by Arthur Grimble in A Pattern Of Islands, which was about his work in the Gilbert and Ellis Islands. Perhaps he romanticised a rather benign colonial rule, with indigenous people waiting for the coconuts to fall from the trees and the fish to enter their nets.

Now we approach the end game. The UK Government deserve congratulations on accepting their responsibilities. A feasibility study will take place, so in perhaps less than 18 months the Ilois will know their future. I adopt what has been said; it must ideally be done before the election. We must recall that a similar study in 2004, nine years ago, concluded as follows:

“whilst it may be feasible to resettle the islands in the short-term, the costs of maintaining long-term inhabitation are likely to be prohibitive … resettlement is likely to become less feasible over time”.

Well, time has passed and the question for the feasibility study is whether that statement remains true.

I have met representatives of the Ilois over the years and have enjoyed their hospitality, having met them socially in Mauritius. I have listened sympathetically to their justified complaints but I am troubled by one key consideration. They have been in exile now for perhaps almost 50 years and it is tempting when forced into exile, as they have been, to have a rather rosy view of life before that exile. How long would such a memory survive, in the potentially harsh and isolated reality?

Although opinions vary, it is said conclusively that most Ilois wish to return. There is of course a cost. There will be renewed infrastructure and modern facilities—those which they have enjoyed in the West and in Mauritius, such as hospitals, schools, drinking water and energy—will have to be provided. Is settlement likely to be precarious in the medium and long term? How will the Ilois be supplied by air and by sea? How far will the US be constrained for security reasons in any help that it can provide? What will be the nature and extent of the consultation with the Government of Mauritius? Will the clear majority for settling in BIOT survive the change for long, particularly for any younger people who “return” but have never been to the islands? What jobs will there be on the US base? Will there be scope for eco-tourism?

I concede of course that these are all questions for the feasibility study. It is important that the independent experts be appointed as soon as possible, because there must be a limited field of experts in this esoteric area of small island development. Perhaps a staged return is called for, with a small pilot project. The problem there is that the people who are likely to return will be those most enthused about and committed to the prospect of return. If they stay there for a relatively short time, it is hardly a case for spending vast sums on the infrastructure.

After almost 50 years, the problem certainly bristles with complexities but I am glad that our Government have at last recognised their responsibility. I hope that as a result of regular consultation with the islanders, they will get a clearer picture of the options. Surely, a just solution can be found consistent with both the wishes of the islanders—the Ilois—and their interests. That is what they deserve, as a grave injustice has been done to them over the past decades.

Iran and Syria

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Monday 11th November 2013 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

The noble and gallant Lord will be aware that a number of tracks—sometimes bilateral and at other times multilateral—usually take place before these negotiations are finally concluded. It was important that the E3+3 came to the same place and that they presented a united front. I assure the noble and gallant Lord that that offer is now clear and that the E3+3 are all behind that united position. On sanctions, we are clear that Iran needs to take concrete steps which give assurance and build trust; by that I mean not words but actions. Once we see that change in actions we will be ready to act proportionately and respond.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, on Palestine-Israel, no doubt the noble Baroness will have listened to the important speech made by Secretary Kerry, which warned of a possible future intifada. Is it correct that because of the impasse, the Palestinians are now demanding that the Americans take the lead, put their own proposals on the table and press for them? On Syria, the noble Baroness spoke of the legitimate moderate opposition. However, is not the bulk of the fighting, and certainly of the effective fighting, done by jihadists? How representative, in her view, are the people who now speak for the opposition? Is it at all realistic to seek to have peace talks without Iran, a key regional player, being present?

[Baroness Warsi]

On the Middle East peace process, I have stood at this Dispatch Box on a number of occasions over the past 12 months and have said that this year is in many ways a definitive year for real progress to be made. I am heartened by the incredible amount of personal time and energy that Secretary Kerry has put into moving this forward. I think we all accept that the Middle East peace process is an intrinsic element of resolving the tensions in the region. At this stage, we continue to support the initiative led by Secretary Kerry in any way we can and are asked to. The noble Lord makes an important point on the opposition. Of course, I have read many papers and briefings on the make-up of the opposition. There is the national coalition, the armed section—which I think is called the SNC, although I am trying desperately to think of what that stands for.

Commonwealth

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Thursday 17th October 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, we have had many valuable contributions to this debate. I am sure that we are all delighted that the noble Baroness was made constitutionally legitimate by a Labour Government.

I pose the question: what is the Commonwealth for? What, according to the question put by the noble Lord, Lord Black, is the central mission? That question is not asked of other international organisations—NATO or the UN, for example—but a substantial answer was given by the noble Lord, Lord Luce, in his excellent opening. There are real problems of definition, which become more acute at the time of CHOGMs. Of course, there is no lack of aspiration, grand declarations or inquiries, such as the Commonwealth Eminent Persons Group, and now, of course, we have the charter.

I pose the question: what are the tangible benefits for us and for other members of the Commonwealth relationship? Is it to be seen in political solidarity—one for all and all for one? We would expect that, for example, on controversial matters such as, for us, the Falklands and Gibraltar. Alas, I do not see such solidarity among Commonwealth members because, understandably, they give a higher priority to other organisations of which they are members, such as regional organisations.

We should ask whether there should, as a matter of course, be meetings of Commonwealth members at all—or at all relevant—international fora before and when those meetings are held. Equally, the fact of the exchange of views between finance Ministers and others has the effect of influencing both us and our Commonwealth partners. Do we see strong advantages to members in trade and economics? There is some evidence of trade co-operation, but there is no Commonwealth preference and, as we saw over the recent order for aircraft by India, where, oddly, the French aircraft was chosen over the Typhoon, Commonwealth countries take hard-nosed decisions over such purchases. Currently, President Hollande is in South Africa, and there have been major French trade missions to India. On aid, DfID’s multilateral aid review concluded that the Commonwealth was poor value as a mechanism for the distribution of aid.

What of human rights, which has been the core function of the Commonwealth? I recall that the report of the Foreign Affairs Committee in 2012 concluded that it was disturbed to note the ineffectiveness of the mechanisms for upholding Commonwealth values. The Maldives is a member of the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group, yet it has an appalling record on women’s rights—and, of course, 60% of Commonwealth countries still have the death penalty. The major recommendation of the Commonwealth Eminent Persons Group relating to a human rights commissioner was rejected. Clearly, it is the view of the majority that the Commonwealth is a loose club from which they benefit.

Next month’s CHOGM is in Sri Lanka. In my judgment, it was sad that that venue was chosen, and a mistake on the part of the Government to be represented by the Prime Minister. If we are to be represented at all, perhaps it should be by a junior Minister. It is absurd also that Sri Lanka will now be the chairman in office, and, equally, will be a member of the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group, when the Prime Minister of Sri Lanka has made it clear that the country wants no interference from outsiders.

Where, then, is the purpose of the Commonwealth? We should be realistic. We should see the overall potential. It is not our principal international organisation, but it is unique. With all its problems, other countries still want to join. Perhaps it is in the Commonwealth network—often technical, often professional, as was mentioned by my noble and learned friend Lady Scotland, and the noble Lords, Lord Kakkar and Lord Crisp, and often enabling relations between professionals—that the value of the Commonwealth is best seen. Surely our message should be: be realistic, do not exaggerate the potential of the Commonwealth, but acknowledge that, for all countries, extra value and an extra dimension is provided by membership of the Commonwealth club.

Gibraltar

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Thursday 10th October 2013 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

My noble friend makes an important point. There have been huge delays on the border, in relation to the crossing of both people and materials. There have been questions in relation to harassment at the border. At their height, some of the delays were unfortunately up to seven hours long. This is causing misery to both the Gibraltarians and to the Spanish people who travel between the two regularly, especially Spanish workers.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

The Spanish Government are linking with the Argentine Government to bring joint pressure on us in international fora. Our friends in Gibraltar are members of Commonwealth institutions. To what extent are we ready to use the Commonwealth as a means of countering that international pressure?

[Baroness Warsi]

There will always be politics in international fora, but it is the responsibility of the Government to respond to the reality on the ground. There have been a number of discussions at the highest levels between the Prime Minister and the Prime Minister of Spain and the Deputy Prime Minister and the Deputy Prime Minister of Spain, and discussions with the President of the European Commission. We feel at the moment that discussions are ongoing. We also have the Royal Navy Gibraltar Squadron, which makes sure that those waters are properly protected.

Syria: Humanitarian Assistance

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 8th October 2013 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

I completely take the point that my noble friend makes but we understand that the biggest percentage of refugees are currently in Lebanon. It was for that reason that at the UN General Assembly meeting, the P5 Foreign Ministers created a new international support group for Lebanon. It may be that we will continue to monitor the refugee situation and to respond accordingly. However, I assure noble Lords that we are incredibly aware and responsive to the pressures that have been placed on the region because of this crisis.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

On UNHCR figures, there is an alarming underfunding crisis. For example, 53% of the US$1 billion in the 2013 regional response plan for Syrian refugees remains unfunded and 72% of the US$249 million in the 2013 IDP response budget remains underfunded. Clearly, the British Government have responded well. Other countries have not. What are we doing to urge the laggards to respond adequately to the situation, including naming and shaming?

[Baroness Warsi]

The noble Lord makes an incredibly important point. For that reason, not only have we given ourselves but we have encouraged other countries to give and to pledge, and then to make good their pledges. That is why during the G20 at St Petersburg, my right honourable friend the Prime Minister started this campaign. It was led across the world by our embassies. At the UN General Assembly in New York, a further US$1 billion was pledged. However, the appeal is still short. It is an ever increasing appeal because the situation continues to get worse. I assure noble Lords that we are doing our fair share in giving and that we are punching above our weight in asking others to give.

Lebanon

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 23rd July 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, the European Union has just decided to designate the military wing of Hezbollah a terrorist organisation. Will the Minister say how meaningful the distinction is between the military wing and the political wing of Hezbollah? What effect will it have on any representations we would wish to make to Hezbollah?

[Baroness Warsi]

My Lords, we do not see why the EU designation should impact on Lebanese political stability or on EU relationships with the Lebanese Government. We do not think that it will affect the EU and the UK relationship, but we feel that it sends out a clear message that the EU is united against terrorism and that there are consequences for terrorist attacks carried out on European soil. It is important, as I am sure noble Lords are aware, that the designation is of the military wing of Hezbollah. We recognise that Hezbollah’s political representatives will remain a legitimate part of Lebanon’s political scene.

Iran

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Wednesday 10th July 2013 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

I understand my noble friend’s points, but the one thing that I and most of us who have been involved in foreign policy realise is that the situation is never black or white. There are always many grey areas, as is the case here. The new president has made some positive remarks, but it is important that they are translated into action. However, I can assure my noble friend and other noble Lords that we have contact with the Iranians. For example, last year at the Heart of Asia conference, as part of the discussions on Afghanistan, the Foreign Secretary met Foreign Minister Salehi in the margins of the meeting. There are therefore opportunities for discussions to take place, even at the highest level. However, in terms of restarting diplomatic relations and having an embassy—which, let us not forget, was ransacked in 2011 and where our officials and staff came under attack—it is important that we do so cautiously.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords—

[Lord Davies of Stamford]

My Lords—

Syria and the Middle East

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Monday 1st July 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, the subject today is the situation in Syria and the Middle East. Naturally, the focus has been on the tragedy of Syria but in the Middle East itself the foundations are shaking and all is connected.

There was apparent stability five years ago, with long-existing autocratic regimes in Egypt, Syria, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen. Today, only the monarchies are relatively untouched: Morocco is certainly untouched; Jordan is still relatively stable, although I refer to what the noble Baroness said about the very generous reception of the refugees by the King and people of Jordan. However, the long-suffering Palestinians in the camps in Syria will find the door closed in Jordan because of the fear of destabilising further the kingdom.

Of course, in most countries the human rights of minorities—particularly but not only Christians—are more threatened than before. Our view of recent events in the Middle East has changed radically. Today it is less fashionable to refer to the Arab spring. The mood of euphoria in Tahrir Square a year or two ago has been replaced by the demonstrations of yesterday against President Morsi, the new pharaoh. His supporters can counter only that he won the election, as if winning elections is sufficient for any democracy. The dilemma, as one experienced analyst wrote of Egypt, is that:

“With the Muslim Brotherhood the transition will be difficult: without them it will be impossible”.

The term “Arab uprising” is now more frequently used—although I understand that the US State Department is known to refer to “the Arab thing”—but all these terms suggest some uniformity in the several countries, when, as we know, one cannot attach one label to so many different national events. However, constant themes are the search for dignity, the loss of deference and the readiness to challenge authority. We refer to the current phase as transition but are puzzled as to what. This search for dignity, this loss of deference, refers not only to the Middle East but to adjoining countries such as Turkey and even, as we have seen, to Brazil.

Honest horizon-scanners should recognise that they cannot see beyond the first curve and that they failed to see the turbulence rising prior to 2008. Yes, there were fine analyses of the problems in the Arab world, such as the search for modernity; for example, successive UNDP reports on human development in the Arab world in the mid-2000s. However, the forecasters did not see the speed of events, just as they failed to see the Iranian revolution prior to 1979. This suggests that our policy planners should proceed in a spirit of humility and that we should have a certain scepticism about the likely scene in the Middle East in, say, five years’ time.

Middle East borders have become more fluid. I enjoyed the article by the noble Lord, Lord Williams of Baglan, in a recent World Today about the fluidity of those borders, which are perhaps even more artificial and certainly more recent than the borders in Africa after the Berlin Conference. But are we creating a new Turkish sphere of influence in the region? We think of the position of the Kurds, dealt a bad hand by history and now with a new dynamic not only from the Kurdistan regional government in Erbil in northern Iraq but from Turkey’s opening to the PKK. Perhaps this will ultimately be an attempt to recreate the old Ottoman Empire. Even in the previously stable Syria there is talk about an ultimate split with the Alawites perhaps retreating to their former, short-lived, post-First World War entity.

There is a danger also that conflagration may spread over national boundaries and engulf the whole region. The obvious example is Hezbollah’s incursion into Syria as a potential game-changer there and its impact on an already unstable Lebanon. There are skirmishes around the Golan Heights. President Assad may ultimately, in desperation, try to involve Israel in the conflict, but Israel has, so far, shown a masterly restraint.

It was the received wisdom up to, let us say, five years ago that Israel and Palestine were at the heart of all conflicts in the Middle East, but that dispute is surely hardly related to the current turmoil. No Israeli flags were burnt in Tahrir Square. Perhaps this is a good time, therefore, to attempt to restart negotiations. Secretary Kerry has been extremely active in his pre-negotiation phase and there are rumours of an Israeli settlement freeze—again—and the freeing of some Palestinian prisoners, but Palestinian divisions remain, as do the giant obstacles of refugees and, above all, Jerusalem. It would be interesting to have the judgment of the Government on the current prospects for the peace process.

I have said that forward planning is generally difficult; it is nowhere more so than in Syria. Commentators refer to a sea change having taken place over the past year. A year ago, the rebels were largely nationalists, secular and DIY. They have been replaced by more professional and more hard-line force, including international jihadists—hence the problem of arms supply, which so many noble Lords have touched on. It is rumoured that the US may begin to supply lethal arms within a month. The Prime Minister and the Foreign Secretary give the impression of wanting to follow and are edging in that direction.

The blunt truth is surely this: the readiness to intervene for humanitarian purposes is cyclical. It arose after the Chicago speech of Prime Minister Blair in 1999 and followed through with some successes in Sierra Leone and Libya, but then we had Afghanistan and Iraq and, as a result, there is no appetite now in our Parliament or in the country for such intervention. I concede, however, that the mood could change if there were a major use of chemical weapons by the regime. If we arm the rebels, we will do so by proxy and, of course, it is most unlikely that arms supply would necessarily shorten the conflict, as the Russians and Iranians would possibly only step up their own supply in response.

Amid the swirling uncertainties, what is the appropriate response of the UK and the West, with paralysis at the UN Security Council and a relative stalemate on the battlefield? The starting point is surely recognition that we have a limited influence on events. No longer can we intervene and redraw boundaries as we did under the Sykes-Picot accord. It is, I concede, hardly a moral stand to stand on the sidelines with one’s arms folded, but we must have a more cautious agenda and search for ways where we can positively help at the margins.

It is of course the humanitarian crisis which is of most immediate concern. Jordan, as has been said, is in danger of being overwhelmed by refugees. My understanding is that the UK Government have responded most impressively. It would be helpful to have an update on the extent to which other countries have failed to live up to the obligations which they undertook at Kuwait and afterwards. In the short term, the refugee crisis is likely to worsen, as the government forces appear to have a new momentum after Qusair.

Consistent with our values, we must help in democracy-building and in the protection of minorities—Christians are clearly the major losers in this conflict. Finally, at the political end, we should seek to mediate in a region where a spirit of “winner takes all” prevails; it is an existential threat for President Assad. We must recognise the interest of, and work with, both Russia and Iran, and reject the French attempt to exclude Iran from Geneva II. The latest news from Geneva is disappointing in the extreme, as Assad perhaps seeks to improve his negotiating position on the battlefield. I accept that extreme dilemmas face us in responding. I have an awful feeling that the situation will get worse before it gets better; that the Syria that emerges will, even if it is united, be more unstable; and, overall, that the Middle East will pose a greater risk to ourselves and to the interests of the West.