Russia

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Thursday 16th October 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, I broadly agree with the noble Baroness’s analysis and congratulate her, and I agree also with the noble Lord, Lord Howell, that we are not back in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and we do not foresee a Cold War of the scale of the last. However, perhaps we were optimistic following the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 as indeed we were over the Arab spring. Hopes were raised at that time that we would be dealing with a new Russia, a democratic Russia with rule of law, and a more co-operative Russia abroad. We have speedily moved from that, as we saw at the NATO summit in Newport, where Russia, the problem country, was the main focus of the debate.

We contrast the position post 1989 in Russia with that of eastern and central Europe. We have to ask ourselves why there is a difference in Russia and perhaps less of a difference in the Caucasus republics. I would follow the analysis of Putnam when he examined the difference between north and south Italy. There is a lack of a mature and civil society in Russia, an equating of opposition with treason and a centralisation with very limited checks and balances in Russian history.

Perhaps we need to turn to Russian history to obtain an accurate analysis of Russia today. The 19th century saw tsarist autocracy. Yes, serfs were then liberated but it is interesting that the former so-called “Kremlin’s banker”, Pugachev, has stated that businesses in Russia are serfs to the state, with none beyond the reach of the President. After the brief opening under Kerensky, the Bolsheviks took power and we had democratic centralism, which was harsher than the 19th century autocracy. We saw in the 1930s the purges and climate of intense fear, followed by, yes, the great patriotic war and the heroism of the Soviet people. Then there was Kruschev, then Yeltsin’s anarchy, followed by Putin in 2000. This was helped by—as the noble Lord, Lord Howell, said—great oil and gas resources, to the extent that some US critics talk of Russia today as a gas station with nuclear weapons. Abroad, we have heard the traditional fear of encirclement which continued through the Brezhnev doctrine. We could read the position well: we were warned in the speech of President Putin at the Munich Security Conference in 2007. Nevertheless, we should remind ourselves that promises were made to the Russians in the early 1990s that there would be no eastward expansion of NATO. There is a danger that those promises may be forgotten.

The noble Baroness detailed the issues of human rights in Russia. There is no need for me to follow her over that trail. One sees it equally in the reports on human rights by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, the State Department and Congress, and Human Rights Watch. All have common themes, with perhaps the only bright light being that of a better treatment of the disabled. Of course, we return to the old themes in Putin’s Russia: the triumphs of the Second World War on the lines of Yaroslavsky, the glory of the tsarist empire allied with the Orthodox Church, Slavophilia and, perhaps most of all, the cult of personality—which we saw in spades during the birthday celebrations of the President and the 12 labours of Hercules. I invite noble Lords to look at the case of Magnitsky, who was killed in 2009 having exposed tax evasion. None of those responsible for his death has been punished. That is a tragic commentary on the state of Russia today.

Outside the borders, we have been ready to give Russia the benefit of every doubt as it flagrantly ignores international law. It still occupies parts of Georgia; Crimea has been annexed and is a new frozen conflict in Europe; eastern Ukraine is invaded by Russian troops. That is all in spite of Russia’s international obligations. However, perhaps there is a good side. Do I detect a new realism as the western response slowly is mobilised? Certainly, there is much less trust in Russia. Particularly now, we are much more wary than we were prior to events in Ukraine. The old naivety may have evaporated but nevertheless there will be common mutual interests such as counterterrorism, nuclear proliferation and ISIL. We will perhaps just have to sup with a longer spoon.

One brief postscript: if we are to make valid criticism of Russia, we must come with clean hands. Our own commitment to human rights is in peril because the Conservative Party has pledged to walk away from the European Convention on Human Rights, in effect to make it only advisory. Dominic Grieve, who was sacked as Attorney-General, said of this plan:

“It’s incoherent, it’s a bit anarchic, it breaches our international legal obligations. It’s a complete breach of precedent”.

I end on this point: those in the Kremlin must be rubbing their hands with glee—I repeat, with glee—at this because we have a very clean record with the European Convention but the Russians have had far more breaches. If we are to sully our hands in this way, we can hardly expect to be taken seriously either by the Russians or our allies and those concerned with human rights in the world.

--- Later in debate ---

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, I am not sure whether my noble friend was in the House when we started the debate—he may well have been—but there has been a lot of reflection throughout it on the relationship between this country and Russia. I am shortly to refer to EU sanctions and their impact on Russia.

There has been much comment during this debate to the effect that, “We’ve got it wrong. We didn’t expect Russia to change its attitude. We expected them to develop in a way that was going to be consensual throughout Europe”, but whatever could or might have been done in the past—but I suggest should not have been done—we are looking now at the situation that persists and I would not want to unpick that.

The noble Lord, Lord Truscott, asked whether we would have engagement with Russia on key international issues. Yes, indeed, we do. Regardless of what it has done, we have made it clear that we will engage on other key international issues, such as Iran, Syria and Islamic extremism—matters that other noble Lords have raised—and it is crucial that we continue those negotiating relationships.

As the noble Lord, Lord Bach, described so graphically, the attack on and illegal annexation of Crimea have caused severe problems to the people of Crimea and Ukraine during the summer. The Russian Federation not only stirred up a conflict that has caused suffering to hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian citizens but it has fuelled that conflict through the supply of troops, armour and sophisticated weaponry. That led to the very sad downing of civilian flight MH17 over Ukrainian soil. Russia has waged a campaign of disinformation and propaganda to mask the true cause of civilian suffering and human rights violations in Ukraine; namely, the actions of the Russian-backed separatists. It has also deployed troops and equipment directly in Ukraine. It says that it has not. Putin makes a joke about what uniforms people may wear; well, you can buy those in any shop. It is clear that Russia has provided not only materiel but troops within Ukraine. Putin plays smoke and mirrors; he is an adept.

We have noted from comments by my noble friend Lady Kishwer—I mean Lady Falkner; she is so much a friend that I use her first name—that families of Russian soldiers are not even allowed to know that their sons are fighting, and dying, in an illegal military operation against a neighbouring country. As she points out, the Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers found out that their sons were dying there and highlighted the fact that they were being secretly buried at home in Russia. For telling the truth, that committee is now on the foreign agents register. I find that absolutely extraordinary.

Noble Lords have spoken about how much we must encourage the ceasefire between Poroshenko and Putin to hold. They are having discussions in Milan this very week, as the noble Lord, Lord Owen, referred to earlier. The plan which was set out and signed in Minsk on 5 September had several points to it. We are still waiting for Russia to complete its commitments. I know that Putin has this week reduced the number of troops on the Ukrainian border, but that commitment must transfer into a commitment to take troops out of Ukraine and to move the tens of thousands of troops away from the border not just while it is ASEM week in Milan but for good.

Several noble Lords, including my noble friend Lord Cormack, the noble Lord, Lord Owen, and the noble Lord, Lord Kerr of Kinlochard, referred to the Budapest memorandum. I say firmly that the UK is willing to engage on the basis of the Budapest memorandum; it is Russia that has refused to do so. But we do not give up. The position at the moment is that we would like to engage, but they will not.

I turn to human rights in the former Soviet Union. Many noble Lords, particularly the noble Earl, Lord Sandwich, my noble friend Lady Hodgson of Abinger and the noble Lord, Lord Anderson, pointed out not only how Russia has run roughshod over fundamental rules that govern relationships between states but that its actions have undermined the principles that govern the relationship between states and their peoples. It has subverted democratic principles and the rule of law both within and outside its borders and put human rights under serious pressure in a number of ways. The noble Lord, Lord Anderson, used that as a lever to refer to issues around a Conservative Party announcement at the Conservative Party conference. We will have plenty of time to engage on that. Work on human rights is in my policy portfolio at the Foreign Office and I am working on it 100%. There will be no let-up in our enforcement as a Government of our duties with regard to human rights and I would expect all our duties on human rights to persist beyond an election whichever Government is in office, because it is part of our society. However, I think that a debate on the European Court of Human Rights really is for another day.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords—

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, I am aware that I am not going to be able to answer half the questions that I had hoped to do so.

Significant points were made on freedom of expression and belief by my noble friends Lady Hodgson of Abinger and Lady Falkner and the noble Lord, Lord Giddens. They spoke of the way in which human rights have been trampled on and how the media have been hindered in Russia. Indeed, we find that there is a foreign agents law, too, which prevents NGOs carrying out their proper function.

Torture remains a concern in many parts of the former Soviet Union—I have just been advised by one noble Lord that I should not say that—including states such as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. My noble friend Lady Hodgson appealed for UK influence with regard to human rights and women’s rights in Kazakhstan, which she has recently visited. I will certainly take that back. She can be assured that we have put pressure wherever we possibly can.

Sanctions were referred to by many noble Lords. I shall refer to them briefly at this stage. Sanctions had to be imposed as a way of bringing home to Russia the import of its action in illegally annexing Crimea and its activity in Ukraine. They are having an impact, exacerbating negative trends in Russia’s economy, which shrank by 0.5% in the first quarter of this year. Sanctions of course are always under review—the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, in particular referred to this—as to their effectiveness, but it is important that they remain.

Throughout all this, a rather bleak picture has been painted. As I finish, I simply say that we remain committed to upholding the rule of law, democratic principles and human rights in all the countries, Russia and those that surround it.

ISIL

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 14th October 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My noble friend points to a situation in Kobani which deeply concern us all. Naturally, we are watching developments very closely. Turkey is already playing an important role in our coalition effort against ISIL, particularly through its humanitarian support in the region—my noble friend referred to that work, which I am sure will continue and intensify. Turkey is also assisting in providing support to the Syrian moderate opposition. Therefore we welcome Turkey’s support for the air strikes in Syria and Iraq, and the President of Turkey’s affirmation that he and his country are willing to play their part in the military campaign. My noble friend is right to press us to look further at how we might discuss with Turkey where that direction of help may develop. I am grateful to him for raising those issues today.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, the Foreign Secretary told the Telegraph yesterday that there was a legal basis for air strikes in Syria—not just in Iraq, where there is no doubt—but as there is no Security Council resolution and no question of self-defence, on what doctrine of international law do the Government depend?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, with regard to Iraq, the position was set out clearly in the recall of Parliament, and my noble friend the Leader of the House repeated that. With regard to Syria, there are arguments that there is a legal basis in international law; namely, where there is a humanitarian disaster, action may have to be taken. What I can say clearly is exactly what the Prime Minister and the Leader of this House have said; that is, if we get to a position where it is felt appropriate to move to further engagement and if there is a knowledge ahead, a premeditation, of taking further action, then nothing will be done unless the Government return to Parliament to have that matter considered.

Ukraine

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Monday 13th October 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, I am grateful to my noble friend, and I have of course read his contributions earlier this year to the debate on the crisis in Ukraine. In direct answer to his question, I understand that the Russians are now pulling back some of their troops from the border with Ukraine. There have been some thousands of Russian troops on the Russian side of the border with Ukraine, and we are of course aware that there are hundreds of Russian troops within Ukraine. Unfortunately the Russians are seeking to do a bit of smoke and mirrors and will not admit that they are there, but they are there. My understanding is that those on the Russian side of the border have been told that they will be pulling back, and some have moved; let us see how many. Is this really the end of a summer exercise or are they there just waiting for a return?

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, senior Russians have said that Ukraine is not a real country and have been very ambivalent about the democratically elected President. If that is so, and if there had been negotiations at the outset, what would have been the purpose? Is it the Government’s view that, from the outset, Russia had the intention to annex Crimea and to destabilise those parts of eastern Ukraine that have a Russophone majority?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, the position of Ukraine is clear, it is a sovereign state, and Russia has sought to undermine that by its illegal annexation of the Crimea. The noble Lord tempts me to try to go into the mind of Mr Putin as regards his ultimate plans not only for Ukraine but for all the other countries that were once within the USSR. Clearly, from the very beginning, we entered into negotiations in good faith to try to ensure that the sovereignty of Ukraine was maintained. It is Russia that has broken the UN declaration. It is in breach of the UN; it is also in breach of international law. In all the discussions that we have carried forward, what we have tried to achieve is to give the Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian Government space within which, in a ceasefire, they can work to have elections. President Poroshenko said that those parliamentary elections will be on 26 October.

United Nations: Secretary-General

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 22nd July 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

The noble Lord, with his expertise, will be aware that the United Kingdom has never formally endorsed the process of regional selection in the appointment of the United Nations Secretary-General. Like many practices, it has developed over time, through non-binding resolutions at the UN, but it is important that member states around the world should feel that the whole world has an opportunity to put forward a potential candidate.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

It is claimed that the UN Secretary-General should be either a secretary—perhaps there have been too many of those of late—or a general, like Dag Hammarskjöld. Into which category, given the current challenges facing the UN, do the Government think the new Secretary-General should fall?

[Baroness Warsi]

I shall not comment on potential candidates, some of whom have been named in the public domain, while others may wish to put themselves forward. I am clear that, despite the mandate of the Secretary-General, it is apparent that those with clear leadership and an ability to add their personal perspective to the issues at the UN General Assembly are those who seem to achieve real results.

Palestine

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Wednesday 16th July 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

My Lords, the view of the United Kingdom, and indeed of the European Union and the wider world, is that there should be a ceasefire and it should come as soon as possible. The noble Lord will also be aware that the unprecedented package that the European Union put forward in the event of an agreement when the Kerry talks began is clearly the kind of incentive to which the noble Lord refers. The prize for peace is a much better life, both for Palestinians and Israelis.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, does the noble Baroness agree that, however welcome the formation of a unity Government, we are still some way from the development of a negotiating partner for Israel which can deliver; and that, given the failure of the unity Governments in the past and the deep divisions within the partners of Fatah and Hamas, perhaps the most appropriate response is considerable caution?

[Baroness Warsi]

My Lords, we welcome the formation of a new interim technocratic Government for the Occupied Palestinian Territories. We feel that reuniting Gaza and the West Bank under a Government committed to peace is a necessary condition for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. We have to be positive at all times; when we find a partner that agrees to the quartet principles, we should see it as a genuine partner for peace.

Eastern Mediterranean: Turkey, Cyprus and Syria

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 17th June 2014 Grand Committee

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, I congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Sharkey, both on his choice of subject and on his tour of the horizon. I also have great pleasure as always in following the noble Lord, Lord Howell. I make two points on the question as drafted. Asked for an assessment of the eastern Mediterranean, I am less optimistic than the noble Lord, Lord Howell. I think that the answer should be “Dire, with few signs of hope”. Clearly, the question was drafted before the recent advances of ISIS in Iraq, which will perhaps be a day’s debate at some stage. Not to mention Iraq and to particularise the other three contraries is like Hamlet without the Prince of Denmark. It shows the pace of change and the unexpected and unforeseen in the Middle East.

I am also a little puzzled why these three countries were particularised. What is the nexus between Cyprus, Syria and Turkey? All are so very different. Perhaps the gas fields are one element of the nexus, as the noble Lord, Lord Howell, said. Perhaps in the Middle East all problems are interconnected. Cyprus is a good friend and a member of the European Union and the Commonwealth. Our hopes are at last renewed of a settlement with President Anastasiades who was of course a yes man in the 2004 referendum. Syria is torn in so many different directions and the military balance is now appearing to shift a little in favour of the Assad regime. There is a desperate refugee and IDP problem.

Turkey is moderate and a good ally although there is currently some slippage in terms of human rights. We have to pose the problem: is the aim of EU membership still realistic? Are we perhaps moving—because also of the cooling in Turkey itself—to something close to Chancellor Merkel’s idea of a privileged relationship? Perhaps the freedom of movement provision is one of the key obstacles. Certainly, I have spoken to Turkish businessmen who still wish to be part of the European Union and recognise, given the sensitivities of immigration today, that the freedom of movement may be put on hold for some considerable time.

Overall, the picture is depressing. I recall an article in yesterday's Financial Times by Richard Haass entitled, An Abrupt Awakening to the Realities of a Recast Middle East.

He concluded:

“The only thing that is certain is the old Middle East is disintegrating. The question is what takes its place”,

so I venture a few brief reflections.

First, traditionally Israel is blamed for all the troubles in the region. Clearly, looking at the current turbulence, even the most arch-critics of Israel cannot find its fingerprints in all the many problems which are self-standing. So far as the Middle East peace process is concerned, the Kerry initiative is dead. We commend his valiant efforts but what will follow? Will there be any chance of EU unity, as there was not over the Palestine question at the UN General Assembly 20 months ago? We understand the Israeli priority of security, yet part of the problem is posed by asking the question of Prime Minister Netanyahu: what is your aim or vision for the region in 10 years’ time? Answer there is none, probably, because he simply wishes to keep the ship afloat. He is a man with no serious wish to look long and that is part of the problem, apart from the obvious fact that there are no interlocutors on the other side with whom he can seriously deal.

Secondly, history is not dead. As a Welsh nonconformist, I remind myself from time to time that Armageddon is sited somewhere in Israel, in Har Megiddo. It is important to understand that each of the countries has its own burden of history. I recall when I first came across the Sykes-Picot agreement of 1916 and was told by Syrians that in respect of Lebanon, “We are two countries but one people”. I ask the Minister: is it now clear that we accept that a redrawing of the map of the region is in prospect? Are the old colonial frontiers, which ignored geography and demography, now being redrawn by force of arms? Is that development necessarily against our interest and it is possible that redrawn, more rational boundaries will be more stable? What prospects are there for a division of Iraq and Syria on the lines provoked by the jihadists and where will the Kurds fit in? I hope that the National Security Council and the planners in the Foreign Office—those who ponder imponderables—will be looking rather carefully at possible scenarios in the region.

My third reflection is that the hopes raised by the Arab spring have clearly been dashed. We see signs of reappraisal now in respect of President Assad. I recall that the noble Lord, Lord Wright, was almost on his own in the past but now some, at least, are seeing him as the lesser of two evils. Given what is happening in Iraq perhaps Saddam Hussein, with all his violence, may also have been the lesser of two evils. How does the Foreign Office respond to this? The Arab spring began in Tunisia, which is now the only good news country in the region. Why? It is because it was prepared to compromise and seek in some ways a consensus. By contrast, Egypt is proceeding very much in the other direction. Just as President Morsi was not inclusive so, alas, the Muslim Brotherhood which, like it or not, are a significant force in Egypt, have been totally marginalised and their activists imprisoned. There may be stability but it is a short-term stability.

One thing is clear. We in the UK and Europe have interests in the region in terms of migration and terrorism from the jihadists, who may return. There are also humanitarian interests. How do we respond? Yes, it is by being realistic and recognising that outsiders have a relatively marginal role. We should recognise, too, that intervention is not in fashion nowadays and that our financial contribution will be limited compared with that of the Gulf and the IMF. Our contribution will surely be in governance and technical issues while encouraging, so far as we are able, inclusiveness in those countries.

Iran is central to the regional problems, and I welcome the Government’s initiative. The nuclear talks began yesterday. They have to finish by 20 July and then there is likely to be a rollover, beginning again in October. There is the problem of encouraging Prime Minister al-Maliki to be more inclusive, a need to keep Jordan, weak and burdened by refugees, as stable as possible, and a need, pace Ukraine, to engage Russia in the region and to work with it. The noble Lord, Lord Sharkey, particularised three important countries. Turkey, of course, is a moderate NATO ally and a key player. The assessment must surely be that there are relatively few signs of hope: the foundations in the Middle East are shaking. Overall, there is a need for far-sighted diplomacy on our part and that of our European and US partners. We need to seek to build bridges so far as we are able and encourage a spirit of inclusiveness and consensus in a region which, alas, knows little of it.

European Commission: President

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Monday 9th June 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

I think the overwhelming message delivered by the electorate across the European Union in the last European Parliament election was about citizens in individual member states wanting to feel as though their voice was being heard and that the views of individual member states were rightly being heard. We saw that in the United Kingdom and across the European Union. My noble friend is absolutely right to raise that point.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

Would the Minister agree that the Prime Minister has a great gift on Europe for influencing people without making friends? We saw that in the withdrawal from the European People’s Party, the natural family, and now the brutal way in which he is personalising this issue of the presidency.

[Baroness Warsi]

I do not think that there was a question in there but the noble Lord made a point and I disagree with it.

Ukraine

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 13th May 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

My noble friend may be aware of the United Nations Security Council vote on 15 March, at which Russia found itself completely isolated, and indeed on that particular vote China abstained. In the General Assembly vote a couple of weeks after that on 27 March, the result was 100 to 11. That clearly shows not just a NATO/Russia or US/EU/Russia issue but actually a world issue where Russia is finding itself more and more isolated.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, yes, Russia must be made to pay a heavy price for its conduct, but does the Minister agree that, if there is to be a lasting settlement, the legitimate interests of Russia will have to be recognised and accommodated, and that those interests include, yes, the cultural and linguistic interests of the Russophone people but also the fact that full membership of NATO should not be extended to Ukraine, and that there should be substantial devolution to those areas of the east and the south of Ukraine that want it?

[Baroness Warsi]

I hear what the noble Lord has said, but the legitimate and natural interests of the Ukrainian people surely come before the legitimate interests of any other peoples. It must of course be right that the Ukrainian people are free to decide their future. I do not think that the European Union, or indeed the US, are forcing the Ukrainians to go down any path; I was at the Vilnius conference where these discussions in relation to the association agreement started. I refer the noble Lord right back to when these debates were being held at these Dispatch Boxes; we were incredibly careful with our language, constantly asked for matters to de-escalate and constantly spoke with the Ukrainians to ensure that the issues being raised by the Russians were being addressed.

Ukraine

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 18th March 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, I thank the Minister for setting out the history of this crisis and the Government’s response so far. In my judgment, the Government have acted thus far in a very sure-footed way in a continuing, fast-moving crisis. I hope that the Minister will recognise the importance of the European Union as an instrument of our policy, and that we will be ready to use that instrument far more than in the past.

We are clearly witnessing the most important and severe crisis in East-West relations since the fall of the Berlin Wall. I shall not go back to 1945, because we have had the invasion of Hungary, the Cuban missile crisis and the attack on Czechoslovakia. What is clear is that Russia is about to annex Crimea. It is a fait accompli. Russia is creating another frozen conflict in Europe, joining Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria in Moldova, which is probably the most vulnerable of all the neighbouring countries. It is uncertain whether Russia will follow a similar course with east Ukraine, and possibly with other neighbouring countries. Perhaps the nearest precedent is that of Sudetenland in 1938, when the Nazis—the Russians will clearly not like this precedent—invaded in response to calls from their compatriots in the then Czechoslovakia. We have to ask: when will President Putin stop? It is also uncertain whether each move by Russia has been planned in advance like a sophisticated game of chess, even over the referendum. Perhaps one could plausibly ask: if there is a referendum in Crimea, why not a referendum in Chechnya, in Dagestan or in other parts of the Caucasus?

This crisis is an opportunity to learn more about Russia and perhaps to shed some of our illusions about contemporary Russia. It is also an opportunity to learn more about ourselves in the democratic West and whether the main priorities of our foreign policy are based on commerce or on wider strategic principles. Of particular interest is the robust response of an awakened Germany. I contrast the response of Chancellor Schroeder, who joined Nord Stream shortly after he left office, with the response of Chancellor Merkel. Germany now seems prepared to give far greater prominence to longer-term strategic interests over short-term commercial considerations. I certainly welcome this new assertiveness of a democratic Germany.

Our starting point is surely recognising that Russia has important interests of history, geography and ethnicity in Ukraine. Thus, the immediate response of Kiev, which was soon rescinded, in relation to the Russian language was most unwise. These clear interests of Russia could, with good will, have been accommodated, for example, through international guarantees for the Russian minority, including on the status of the Russian language, more autonomy and a voluntary renunciation of joining military alliances—that is, neutrality. However, the agenda of President Putin was clearly wider than that.

Since the early 1990s, we in the West have treated Russia on a basis that we now think of as an illusion, in the vain hope that Russia was firmly on the path to democracy. There was some evidence of that during the time of President Yeltsin, however chaotic. We have been prepared to overlook serious failings, ignoring the almost Stalinist monolith of so many Russian parliamentary responses, culminating in the unanimous vote in the Russian Parliament in respect of military intervention in Ukraine. It was unanimous: there was not one dissident in that parliament—no one prepared to say, “Don’t count me in on that”.

We have accepted on the way, after a short-lived process, the Litvinenko affair, Magnitsky, the invasion and continued occupation of 20% of Georgia since 2008, and the Russian failure to comply with the ceasefire agreement over Georgia in that year. Russia has ignored international agreements such as that in Budapest, and a guarantor power of the Budapest agreement is now the aggressor, undermining the territorial integrity of the country it purported to guarantee. The fact that Russia was prepared to lie so blatantly—for example, on the presence of Russian troops in Crimea, outside its military bases—is bound to shake confidence in Russia in the short and medium term.

Again, what does the crisis tell us about the firmness of the West so far? The response, I concede, has been weak. “Great things we shall do”, but, as my noble friend has said, we have done very little thus far. Let us accept that a step-by-step process is relevant, important interests are involved and one country should not be expected to bear a disproportionate burden of the pain. President Putin clearly relies on disarray on the western side. Will there be business as usual with Russia after a short interval? No, our illusions should be over. We should have a far more realistic policy towards Russia.

What should be our appropriate response? First, we should assist Ukraine economically, financially and politically, for example, in democracy-building. Secondly, we should recognise that the diplomatic track is unlikely to lead anywhere, seek to contain and isolate Russia at the United Nations and elsewhere, and make clear to Russians privately that there are indeed red lines. We should give reassurances, particularly to our Baltic allies, who are very concerned at the moment. Is it too optimistic to see the beginning of a stronger European foreign policy emerging from this crisis?

We should also consider the position of Russia in those international organisations of which it is a member which deal with human rights. We think, for example, of the OSCE, which came into being after the Helsinki agreements of 1975, and the basket containing human rights that are so massively infringed by Russia. We think of the Council of Europe, the main human rights organisation in Europe, with its 48 countries. I note that the Conservative group has withdrawn from the family group in the parliamentary assembly which contained Russia, the EDG. Is it too much to ask that the Conservatives should consider joining the mainstream right-wing family, the EPP? Or is that a joining too far?

Finally, on sanctions, the travel bans and asset freezes are relatively easy. Economic and financial sanctions must be calibrated and, I accept, further down the track; but they are likely to be the most effective. I think of South Africa in 1986. The real blow to the apartheid regime came when the Chase Manhattan bank refused to roll over certain loans in respect of South Africa.

Russia must be forced to pay a heavy price, but let us also accept that we will have to pay a price, economically and commercially, because of the shock to the world economy. We need to reduce our dependence on Russian oil and gas. The world is now awash with oil. I anticipate that the noble Lord, Lord Howell, may have a few well chosen words to say on that theme later when he comes to speak.

Already, after the failure of the Kerry-Lavrov talks, billions of dollars have been repatriated from the West by Russians, yields on Russian government 10-year bonds have risen sharply, and the rouble has fallen to a record low. Yes, there has been a slight upturn in the Russian stock exchange, but I judge that that will be short-lived as further sanctions take place along the road.

Russia is already paying a heavy price, and all this before effective sanctions. The next few weeks will be a clear test for the West: a test of our international credibility. Many friends—those who are currently apprehensive in the world, including many of Russia’s neighbours—will be watching our reaction very closely.

Crimea

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Thursday 13th March 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

I agree with my noble friend’s assessment of the situation. He may be aware that OSCE observers are on the ground at the moment in Ukraine. They have not been given access to Crimea. They are there at the request of the Ukrainian Government. We feel that further access should be given so that we can get a better assessment of the situation on the ground.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, President Putin appears to assume that the western response will be weak, relying on the precedents of Georgia, Litvinenko and Magnitsky, and of course the clash of interests. Building on what the noble Lord said about the OSCE, does the Minister agree that there are implications for Russian membership of the Council of Europe, the senior human rights organisation in Europe? Should the Government consider taking the initiative in the Council of Ministers in response to the Russian invasion?

[Baroness Warsi]

My Lords, there are implications for Russia’s membership of all sorts of multilateral organisations as a result of its actions. The G8 preparations and talks have been suspended and the OECD has now suspended accession negotiations, which will have a real impact on Russia’s standing regarding trade and investment. I can inform the House that there will now be a Secretary Kerry/Lavrov meeting in London tomorrow and we hope that some progress will come out of that.