Eastern Mediterranean: Turkey, Cyprus and Syria

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 17th June 2014 Grand Committee

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, I congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Sharkey, both on his choice of subject and on his tour of the horizon. I also have great pleasure as always in following the noble Lord, Lord Howell. I make two points on the question as drafted. Asked for an assessment of the eastern Mediterranean, I am less optimistic than the noble Lord, Lord Howell. I think that the answer should be “Dire, with few signs of hope”. Clearly, the question was drafted before the recent advances of ISIS in Iraq, which will perhaps be a day’s debate at some stage. Not to mention Iraq and to particularise the other three contraries is like Hamlet without the Prince of Denmark. It shows the pace of change and the unexpected and unforeseen in the Middle East.

I am also a little puzzled why these three countries were particularised. What is the nexus between Cyprus, Syria and Turkey? All are so very different. Perhaps the gas fields are one element of the nexus, as the noble Lord, Lord Howell, said. Perhaps in the Middle East all problems are interconnected. Cyprus is a good friend and a member of the European Union and the Commonwealth. Our hopes are at last renewed of a settlement with President Anastasiades who was of course a yes man in the 2004 referendum. Syria is torn in so many different directions and the military balance is now appearing to shift a little in favour of the Assad regime. There is a desperate refugee and IDP problem.

Turkey is moderate and a good ally although there is currently some slippage in terms of human rights. We have to pose the problem: is the aim of EU membership still realistic? Are we perhaps moving—because also of the cooling in Turkey itself—to something close to Chancellor Merkel’s idea of a privileged relationship? Perhaps the freedom of movement provision is one of the key obstacles. Certainly, I have spoken to Turkish businessmen who still wish to be part of the European Union and recognise, given the sensitivities of immigration today, that the freedom of movement may be put on hold for some considerable time.

Overall, the picture is depressing. I recall an article in yesterday's Financial Times by Richard Haass entitled, An Abrupt Awakening to the Realities of a Recast Middle East.

He concluded:

“The only thing that is certain is the old Middle East is disintegrating. The question is what takes its place”,

so I venture a few brief reflections.

First, traditionally Israel is blamed for all the troubles in the region. Clearly, looking at the current turbulence, even the most arch-critics of Israel cannot find its fingerprints in all the many problems which are self-standing. So far as the Middle East peace process is concerned, the Kerry initiative is dead. We commend his valiant efforts but what will follow? Will there be any chance of EU unity, as there was not over the Palestine question at the UN General Assembly 20 months ago? We understand the Israeli priority of security, yet part of the problem is posed by asking the question of Prime Minister Netanyahu: what is your aim or vision for the region in 10 years’ time? Answer there is none, probably, because he simply wishes to keep the ship afloat. He is a man with no serious wish to look long and that is part of the problem, apart from the obvious fact that there are no interlocutors on the other side with whom he can seriously deal.

Secondly, history is not dead. As a Welsh nonconformist, I remind myself from time to time that Armageddon is sited somewhere in Israel, in Har Megiddo. It is important to understand that each of the countries has its own burden of history. I recall when I first came across the Sykes-Picot agreement of 1916 and was told by Syrians that in respect of Lebanon, “We are two countries but one people”. I ask the Minister: is it now clear that we accept that a redrawing of the map of the region is in prospect? Are the old colonial frontiers, which ignored geography and demography, now being redrawn by force of arms? Is that development necessarily against our interest and it is possible that redrawn, more rational boundaries will be more stable? What prospects are there for a division of Iraq and Syria on the lines provoked by the jihadists and where will the Kurds fit in? I hope that the National Security Council and the planners in the Foreign Office—those who ponder imponderables—will be looking rather carefully at possible scenarios in the region.

My third reflection is that the hopes raised by the Arab spring have clearly been dashed. We see signs of reappraisal now in respect of President Assad. I recall that the noble Lord, Lord Wright, was almost on his own in the past but now some, at least, are seeing him as the lesser of two evils. Given what is happening in Iraq perhaps Saddam Hussein, with all his violence, may also have been the lesser of two evils. How does the Foreign Office respond to this? The Arab spring began in Tunisia, which is now the only good news country in the region. Why? It is because it was prepared to compromise and seek in some ways a consensus. By contrast, Egypt is proceeding very much in the other direction. Just as President Morsi was not inclusive so, alas, the Muslim Brotherhood which, like it or not, are a significant force in Egypt, have been totally marginalised and their activists imprisoned. There may be stability but it is a short-term stability.

One thing is clear. We in the UK and Europe have interests in the region in terms of migration and terrorism from the jihadists, who may return. There are also humanitarian interests. How do we respond? Yes, it is by being realistic and recognising that outsiders have a relatively marginal role. We should recognise, too, that intervention is not in fashion nowadays and that our financial contribution will be limited compared with that of the Gulf and the IMF. Our contribution will surely be in governance and technical issues while encouraging, so far as we are able, inclusiveness in those countries.

Iran is central to the regional problems, and I welcome the Government’s initiative. The nuclear talks began yesterday. They have to finish by 20 July and then there is likely to be a rollover, beginning again in October. There is the problem of encouraging Prime Minister al-Maliki to be more inclusive, a need to keep Jordan, weak and burdened by refugees, as stable as possible, and a need, pace Ukraine, to engage Russia in the region and to work with it. The noble Lord, Lord Sharkey, particularised three important countries. Turkey, of course, is a moderate NATO ally and a key player. The assessment must surely be that there are relatively few signs of hope: the foundations in the Middle East are shaking. Overall, there is a need for far-sighted diplomacy on our part and that of our European and US partners. We need to seek to build bridges so far as we are able and encourage a spirit of inclusiveness and consensus in a region which, alas, knows little of it.

European Commission: President

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Monday 9th June 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

I think the overwhelming message delivered by the electorate across the European Union in the last European Parliament election was about citizens in individual member states wanting to feel as though their voice was being heard and that the views of individual member states were rightly being heard. We saw that in the United Kingdom and across the European Union. My noble friend is absolutely right to raise that point.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

Would the Minister agree that the Prime Minister has a great gift on Europe for influencing people without making friends? We saw that in the withdrawal from the European People’s Party, the natural family, and now the brutal way in which he is personalising this issue of the presidency.

[Baroness Warsi]

I do not think that there was a question in there but the noble Lord made a point and I disagree with it.

Ukraine

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 13th May 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

My noble friend may be aware of the United Nations Security Council vote on 15 March, at which Russia found itself completely isolated, and indeed on that particular vote China abstained. In the General Assembly vote a couple of weeks after that on 27 March, the result was 100 to 11. That clearly shows not just a NATO/Russia or US/EU/Russia issue but actually a world issue where Russia is finding itself more and more isolated.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, yes, Russia must be made to pay a heavy price for its conduct, but does the Minister agree that, if there is to be a lasting settlement, the legitimate interests of Russia will have to be recognised and accommodated, and that those interests include, yes, the cultural and linguistic interests of the Russophone people but also the fact that full membership of NATO should not be extended to Ukraine, and that there should be substantial devolution to those areas of the east and the south of Ukraine that want it?

[Baroness Warsi]

I hear what the noble Lord has said, but the legitimate and natural interests of the Ukrainian people surely come before the legitimate interests of any other peoples. It must of course be right that the Ukrainian people are free to decide their future. I do not think that the European Union, or indeed the US, are forcing the Ukrainians to go down any path; I was at the Vilnius conference where these discussions in relation to the association agreement started. I refer the noble Lord right back to when these debates were being held at these Dispatch Boxes; we were incredibly careful with our language, constantly asked for matters to de-escalate and constantly spoke with the Ukrainians to ensure that the issues being raised by the Russians were being addressed.

Ukraine

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 18th March 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, I thank the Minister for setting out the history of this crisis and the Government’s response so far. In my judgment, the Government have acted thus far in a very sure-footed way in a continuing, fast-moving crisis. I hope that the Minister will recognise the importance of the European Union as an instrument of our policy, and that we will be ready to use that instrument far more than in the past.

We are clearly witnessing the most important and severe crisis in East-West relations since the fall of the Berlin Wall. I shall not go back to 1945, because we have had the invasion of Hungary, the Cuban missile crisis and the attack on Czechoslovakia. What is clear is that Russia is about to annex Crimea. It is a fait accompli. Russia is creating another frozen conflict in Europe, joining Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria in Moldova, which is probably the most vulnerable of all the neighbouring countries. It is uncertain whether Russia will follow a similar course with east Ukraine, and possibly with other neighbouring countries. Perhaps the nearest precedent is that of Sudetenland in 1938, when the Nazis—the Russians will clearly not like this precedent—invaded in response to calls from their compatriots in the then Czechoslovakia. We have to ask: when will President Putin stop? It is also uncertain whether each move by Russia has been planned in advance like a sophisticated game of chess, even over the referendum. Perhaps one could plausibly ask: if there is a referendum in Crimea, why not a referendum in Chechnya, in Dagestan or in other parts of the Caucasus?

This crisis is an opportunity to learn more about Russia and perhaps to shed some of our illusions about contemporary Russia. It is also an opportunity to learn more about ourselves in the democratic West and whether the main priorities of our foreign policy are based on commerce or on wider strategic principles. Of particular interest is the robust response of an awakened Germany. I contrast the response of Chancellor Schroeder, who joined Nord Stream shortly after he left office, with the response of Chancellor Merkel. Germany now seems prepared to give far greater prominence to longer-term strategic interests over short-term commercial considerations. I certainly welcome this new assertiveness of a democratic Germany.

Our starting point is surely recognising that Russia has important interests of history, geography and ethnicity in Ukraine. Thus, the immediate response of Kiev, which was soon rescinded, in relation to the Russian language was most unwise. These clear interests of Russia could, with good will, have been accommodated, for example, through international guarantees for the Russian minority, including on the status of the Russian language, more autonomy and a voluntary renunciation of joining military alliances—that is, neutrality. However, the agenda of President Putin was clearly wider than that.

Since the early 1990s, we in the West have treated Russia on a basis that we now think of as an illusion, in the vain hope that Russia was firmly on the path to democracy. There was some evidence of that during the time of President Yeltsin, however chaotic. We have been prepared to overlook serious failings, ignoring the almost Stalinist monolith of so many Russian parliamentary responses, culminating in the unanimous vote in the Russian Parliament in respect of military intervention in Ukraine. It was unanimous: there was not one dissident in that parliament—no one prepared to say, “Don’t count me in on that”.

We have accepted on the way, after a short-lived process, the Litvinenko affair, Magnitsky, the invasion and continued occupation of 20% of Georgia since 2008, and the Russian failure to comply with the ceasefire agreement over Georgia in that year. Russia has ignored international agreements such as that in Budapest, and a guarantor power of the Budapest agreement is now the aggressor, undermining the territorial integrity of the country it purported to guarantee. The fact that Russia was prepared to lie so blatantly—for example, on the presence of Russian troops in Crimea, outside its military bases—is bound to shake confidence in Russia in the short and medium term.

Again, what does the crisis tell us about the firmness of the West so far? The response, I concede, has been weak. “Great things we shall do”, but, as my noble friend has said, we have done very little thus far. Let us accept that a step-by-step process is relevant, important interests are involved and one country should not be expected to bear a disproportionate burden of the pain. President Putin clearly relies on disarray on the western side. Will there be business as usual with Russia after a short interval? No, our illusions should be over. We should have a far more realistic policy towards Russia.

What should be our appropriate response? First, we should assist Ukraine economically, financially and politically, for example, in democracy-building. Secondly, we should recognise that the diplomatic track is unlikely to lead anywhere, seek to contain and isolate Russia at the United Nations and elsewhere, and make clear to Russians privately that there are indeed red lines. We should give reassurances, particularly to our Baltic allies, who are very concerned at the moment. Is it too optimistic to see the beginning of a stronger European foreign policy emerging from this crisis?

We should also consider the position of Russia in those international organisations of which it is a member which deal with human rights. We think, for example, of the OSCE, which came into being after the Helsinki agreements of 1975, and the basket containing human rights that are so massively infringed by Russia. We think of the Council of Europe, the main human rights organisation in Europe, with its 48 countries. I note that the Conservative group has withdrawn from the family group in the parliamentary assembly which contained Russia, the EDG. Is it too much to ask that the Conservatives should consider joining the mainstream right-wing family, the EPP? Or is that a joining too far?

Finally, on sanctions, the travel bans and asset freezes are relatively easy. Economic and financial sanctions must be calibrated and, I accept, further down the track; but they are likely to be the most effective. I think of South Africa in 1986. The real blow to the apartheid regime came when the Chase Manhattan bank refused to roll over certain loans in respect of South Africa.

Russia must be forced to pay a heavy price, but let us also accept that we will have to pay a price, economically and commercially, because of the shock to the world economy. We need to reduce our dependence on Russian oil and gas. The world is now awash with oil. I anticipate that the noble Lord, Lord Howell, may have a few well chosen words to say on that theme later when he comes to speak.

Already, after the failure of the Kerry-Lavrov talks, billions of dollars have been repatriated from the West by Russians, yields on Russian government 10-year bonds have risen sharply, and the rouble has fallen to a record low. Yes, there has been a slight upturn in the Russian stock exchange, but I judge that that will be short-lived as further sanctions take place along the road.

Russia is already paying a heavy price, and all this before effective sanctions. The next few weeks will be a clear test for the West: a test of our international credibility. Many friends—those who are currently apprehensive in the world, including many of Russia’s neighbours—will be watching our reaction very closely.

Crimea

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Thursday 13th March 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

I agree with my noble friend’s assessment of the situation. He may be aware that OSCE observers are on the ground at the moment in Ukraine. They have not been given access to Crimea. They are there at the request of the Ukrainian Government. We feel that further access should be given so that we can get a better assessment of the situation on the ground.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, President Putin appears to assume that the western response will be weak, relying on the precedents of Georgia, Litvinenko and Magnitsky, and of course the clash of interests. Building on what the noble Lord said about the OSCE, does the Minister agree that there are implications for Russian membership of the Council of Europe, the senior human rights organisation in Europe? Should the Government consider taking the initiative in the Council of Ministers in response to the Russian invasion?

[Baroness Warsi]

My Lords, there are implications for Russia’s membership of all sorts of multilateral organisations as a result of its actions. The G8 preparations and talks have been suspended and the OECD has now suspended accession negotiations, which will have a real impact on Russia’s standing regarding trade and investment. I can inform the House that there will now be a Secretary Kerry/Lavrov meeting in London tomorrow and we hope that some progress will come out of that.

European Union: Turkish Accession

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Wednesday 5th March 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

My noble friend makes some important points. I reiterate that the UK remains the strongest supporter of Turkey’s EU membership bid. Turkey itself has repeatedly reaffirmed its strategic goal of joining the European Union, most recently in February of this year. It has the sixth largest economy in Europe and is a key NATO ally. Therefore, we will do all we can to progress its membership.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, it is surely welcome that the intercommunal talks on Cyprus have now recommenced. Does the Minister agree that the positive support of Turkey for this process would be a major boost to its EU ambitions?

[Baroness Warsi]

As noble Lords will be aware, a number of chapters have been politically blocked by, among others, Cyprus. That is one of the reasons for the lack of progress. Noble Lords will be pleased to hear that on 11 February the leaders of the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot communities respectively met under United Nations auspices. Since then there has been further progress, with the two negotiators meeting several times, and on 27 February they broke new ground when the Greek Cypriot negotiator held talks in Ankara and the Turkish Cypriot negotiator did the same in Athens. That progress is to be welcomed.

Ukraine

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 4th March 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

The noble Lord makes important points. It was exactly these sensitivities to which I referred in answering the Question on Thursday and, indeed, in the Statement today. We recognise and understand those sensitivities, and the emotional connection to which my noble friend Lord King has referred between Russia and Crimea and Ukraine. However, we must also not forget that a sovereign nation has been violated, and this cannot be the way in which we conduct international affairs. Simply to stand by and say that we recognise the emotional connection and the history of the relationship between Russia and Ukraine, and must therefore to some extent accept and stand back from this situation, would not be the right approach. As my noble friend said earlier, there are territorial disputes all around the world. What kind of a signal would we therefore be sending?

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, is it not true that Russia also has emotional connections with other parts of its former empire, including Armenia and Georgia? One cannot rely on that. The sad reality may be, alas, that Crimea may already be in the course of being lost to Ukraine, and that all we can do is try to ensure that eastern Ukraine does not follow the same path—by, for example, ensuring that adequate guarantees of freedom, language and so on are given to the Russian-speaking inhabitants of that region.

Can the Minister indicate a little more about what sanctions, asset freezes and smart sanctions we have in mind? In terms of institutions, if there is no adequate response from Russia in respect of the pressures which we exert, are we considering, for example, seeking the suspension of Russia from the Council of Europe in the same way that the Conservative group yesterday withdrew from the European Democratic Group, where they sit with their Russian colleagues? What about the OSCE? What about the G7/G8? What consideration, if any, has been given to the UK taking the lead in calling for the suspension of Russia from these various international organisations?

[Baroness Warsi]

I hope that the noble Lord will forgive me if I do not go into a huge amount of detail at this stage. I will simply say that all options, whether diplomatic or economic, are on the table at this stage. However, as noble Lords will understand from today’s debate if not from anything else, those actions have to be collective. Those collective discussions and options have to be discussed in the right fora, of which the Heads of Government meeting on Thursday is one. Therefore we may return to this matter, possibly next week.

Ukraine

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Thursday 27th February 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

As my noble friend will be aware, the situation on the ground is constantly changing. We are receiving almost hourly updates on what is happening. We are concerned about the situation in the Crimea, and are aware of reports of armed men seizing local government buildings. We are watching the situation closely. We are urging all parties both inside and outside Ukraine to exercise restraint, to stop further inflaming tensions and to stop any further impact on Ukraine’s sovereignty. We are in touch with a number of partners on this matter. As the situation on the ground is changing so quickly we are looking to see the best response at this stage.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

Clearly, Russia has legitimate interests in Ukraine and we should strive to avoid being provocative. How do the Government respond to the suggestion that we should urge the new Ukrainian Government to avoid entering into any military alliance which might be considered by Russia to be provocative?

[Baroness Warsi]

The Government do not believe that this is a zero-sum game. We do not feel that the EU’s relationship with Ukraine is at the expense of its relationship with Russia. We fundamentally believe that it is for the people of Ukraine to choose their future, securing their sovereignty and territorial integrity. Certainly in the discussions that we have had with our Russian colleagues, we have both stressed the need to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty.

European Union (Referendum) Bill

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Friday 24th January 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, I have made it clear that there would be an apology from me if I had uttered an untruth. I have not uttered an untruth. What I have said is that I am deeply disappointed that anybody should have leaked that letter. The noble Lord, Lord Bassam, has been able to make it clear that it was not he. I am grateful for that because our relationship has been a proper one in the usual channels and will continue to be so.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords—

[Baroness Quin (Lab)]

My Lords—

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[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

If the noble Lord read the Bill—it is not a very complicated one—he would find that it says that the referendum must be held before 31 December 2017 and if the House of Commons had thought that it was not appropriate to set a date for a referendum after the date of the general election then it would have voted the Bill down.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords—

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

I am not going to give way again—I intended to interrupt only briefly. The noble Lord was long enough in the other place to understand what is happening here. Liberal and Labour Party supporters do not have the guts to face up to the British people and say, “We want to stop you having a referendum,” and therefore they have dumped this here. Members opposite who vote for amendments—

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[Lord Mackay of Clashfern]

Exactly. Every part of this Bill can be altered by general legislation after the general election, including the date. However, the need for the date now is to give an entitlement to a referendum. If you do not put in a date, it will be in never-never land so it has to have a date now, but that date, like every other detail in this Bill, is subject to alteration.

Therefore, the extent to which we need to trouble about the detail is a substantial question. We do not know the circumstances of the referendum—at least I do not know—and therefore it will need to be adjusted in the light of the circumstances at the time. That will have to happen through a Bill authorised, put forward and promoted by the Government of the day. This Bill is not promoted by the Government of the day but by, essentially, the Member of the House of Commons who put it forward. He is a member of the Conservative Party and I know that the Bill is substantially supported by a good number of its members, but not all.

I am a strong believer in the European Union and our membership of it and have been for many years. I survived in government during the Maastricht debate, which would have been an experience for anyone, and there were demands then for a referendum on the Maastricht treaty. I have always found referenda difficult, but it is particularly difficult to have a referendum on a treaty because the chance that those people who vote have even read it—indeed, this may sometimes even apply to the legislators—is rather small. A referendum on a treaty is therefore difficult. At one time it was proposed to hold a referendum on the constitution of the EU, but that was equally difficult.

However, the question of whether, either now or in the future, you should be in or out is relatively simple. Just as it is in the Scottish referendum, it is a suitable question for a referendum. What this Bill does is give the British electorate the entitlement to have a referendum. As I said in response to the noble Lord, Lord Giddens, the date has to be put in, as otherwise there is no enforceable entitlement, but the actual date for the referendum needs to be fixed by Government action along with action by both Houses of Parliament.

I am anxious about this because of what has been said by the Constitution Committee. I shall read out what the committee said because it is important:

“Three further private members’ Fridays are scheduled in the House of Commons this session: on Fridays 17 January, 24 January and 28 February 2014. So if the Lords were to pass any amendments to the bill, in order for it to become law in this session it would have to return to the Commons in time for the Lords amendments to be considered on Friday 28 February 2014. The requirement in the House of Lords for minimum intervals between stages of a bill may make it unlikely that the bill would finish the Lords in time for any amendments passed by the Lords to be considered by the Commons on Friday 28 February 2014”.

I would like to know what the proposers of this amendment have to say in relation to that.

The danger I see is that by exercising our undoubted responsibility for scrutiny, and given that scrutiny is supposed to improve a Bill, we will improve it in such a way as to kill it. This troubles me a great deal, not so much from the point of this House and its position in relation to the Commons, but I consider it to be important in terms of the position of the country in relation to the European Union.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

Surely the pressure on time that the noble and learned Lord has explained is wholly arbitrary. It is not something which has been decided by this House; it has been forced upon this House. It is no fault of this House that there is such pressure of time. The implication of what the noble and learned Lord is saying is that even if the Bill is thoroughly flawed and thoroughly bad, we should just wave it on.

[Lord Mackay of Clashfern]

I did not say it was our fault—certainly not. The Bill started off as early as possible in the other place. It took some time because there was a lot of discussion. Members of the House of Commons considered it without a guillotine and it arrived here, I think, in early December. I remember well the Clerk reading out the fact that it had appeared.

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[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

The promise is not bankable on the principle that no Parliament can bind their successor.

[Lord Mackay of Clashfern]

Exactly, and this Bill does not bind anyone—except that if it remains on the statute book, it will entitle the British people to a referendum.

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[Lord Pearson of Rannoch (UKIP)]

My Lords, I do not know if others of your Lordships are in the same position as me in that I remain confused about procedure between your Lordships’ House and the House of Commons on this Private Member’s Bill. I am fairly sure that very large numbers of the British public would be similarly confused having listened to this debate so far. I refer here particularly to the helpful interventions from the noble Lords, Lord Forsyth and Lord Elystan-Morgan, and the noble and learned Lord, Lord Mackay of Clashfern.

I will not make more of a speech on the Bill itself except to remind your Lordships, yet again, that the Bill passed through the House of Commons unopposed and is on a subject upon which a very large majority of the British people say they want a referendum. Of course, it would be a very foolhardy Government in future who dared to repeal this Bill if we passed it.

I still have a question on which we need an authoritative answer from the government Front Bench. I regret that the noble Baroness the Chief Whip is not in her place but the noble Lord the Leader of the House is—or perhaps it is the duty of the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, to answer this. The question is, quite simply: what happens if we pass any amendment to this Private Member’s Bill? Will there be time in the Commons to consider it and get it back to us, or will we in effect kill the Bill? What are the prospects of a similar Bill in the next Session and before the general election? Even if the wording in the proposed question may not be perfect, are we in effect killing this Bill if we vote through this or any other amendment? We should be very clear about that before we vote.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, a spectre haunts the Conservative Party—the spectre of UKIP. The noble Lord, Lord Pearson of Rannoch, must glow with pride about that. He may have heard—as the noble Baroness, Lady Falkner, said—the speech of the Prime Minister at Bloomberg. That was a damascene conversion. I invite Members of your Lordships’ House to listen to or read the speeches made by the Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary, extremely eloquently, rejecting an “in or out” referendum prior to that Bloomberg speech. Indeed, the Foreign Secretary used phrases, which I will not quote now, saying what a disaster it would be in trade terms. Of course, that sentiment is echoed now by the CBI, the Japanese Government and a whole series of businesses—many Japanese, German and others—that recognise that there would be considerable uncertainty between now and 2017 if this Bill was passed.

The noble and learned Lord, Lord Mackay, gave as justification for his stance that to pass this Bill would give an assurance to the British public, but an assurance of what? We have said on many occasions that the constitutional principle is clear: no Parliament can bind its successors. Will there be a clear assurance that there will be a referendum before 2017? We know for example that the Prime Minister has said very clearly that he would not intend to start negotiations with our European partners until after the next general election. Anyone who knows anything about the European Union knows that its wheels grind very slowly and there will be long and tortuous negotiations. Some countries that we believe now to be allies may no longer be—for example, the Czech Republic. Its Government have claimed for some time that they would be an ally in terms of reforming the European Union but it recently had a change of Government. The old, very Eurosceptic Government have changed to one far warmer towards Europe and so unlikely to be an ally. Poland, Bulgaria and Romania are, after the recent utterances of the Prime Minister, hardly likely to be particularly supportive. One could go on.

[Lord Trefgarne (Con)]

I wonder if the noble Lord would refresh his memory with paragraph 4.25 of the Companion, which appears on page 65. It says:

“Debate must be relevant to the Question before the House”.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

I invite the noble Lord to read what I am saying. I am replying to points made by other Members of your Lordships’ House during the debate, so if I am not being relevant, nor were they.

As I am sure everyone recognises, the truth is that this would involve a great constitutional change. As a Welshman, I have considerable experience of referenda. The first referendum I was involved in was on Sunday opening in Wales. I went from London, where I was then working, to Wales and voted against Sunday opening. I have campaigned in many referenda since and have reached the conclusion that the result of a referendum depends, first, on who poses the question and whether the Government are popular at the time. Secondly, it depends on when the question is posed. Thirdly, it depends on the question. I end on this point: in my judgment, the noble Lord, Lord Armstrong, made a highly succinct and powerful speech, inviting us not to allow the Tea Party to—we have used a lot of dog analogies—be the tail wagging the dog, but to follow the body set up specifically for this purpose, namely the Electoral Commission.

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[Lord Wigley]

My Lords, Amendment 8 has appeared rather more quickly than noble Lords perhaps expected. I make it clear from the outset that Amendment 8 is purely a probing amendment and, if noble Lords have not realised the significance of the date in the amendment—

“The referendum shall not be held before 1 October 2014”—

it is to ensure that the referendum does not take place before the outcome of the referendum on Scottish independence has been determined.

Clearly, if the Scottish people were to vote for independence, there would be a significant impact on the Bill. As far as I can see, no provision has been made in the Bill to deal with that matter, to which we shall no doubt return in debate on other amendments which impinge on that question. We do not know what the outcome of the referendum in Scotland will be. Therefore, in passing legislation to deal with the period through to the end of 2017, which is not only after the Scottish referendum but, if there were a yes vote, also after the fulfilment of independence for Scotland, it would mean that the United Kingdom was a very different entity from the one it is now. That must surely be taken on board in the Bill.

I am not opposed to a referendum in all circumstances. I have no doubt that there are circumstances when a referendum is needed. If a referendum is going to be meaningful, clearly the definition of the units—of the people who are taking part—has to be clear; it has to be determined. Therefore, I hope that the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, who is in charge of the Bill, will be able to tell the House how it would respond to the possibility of a yes vote in Scotland.

It may well be that the opinion polls at present say that it is likely to be a no vote, and I think we all recognise that. However, I think we also recognise that a week is a long time in politics. One cannot rule out the possibility of a yes vote. Therefore, we need to have some provision that deals with it. There are implications in terms of the voting and negotiations that may need to take place between the United Kingdom and the European Union for any new deal that may be the basis of a referendum in 2017, and that has to be thought through. I get the impression that the drafters of the Bill just have not thought of the implications of the Scottish referendum result. For that reason, I beg to move.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, and I go back a long way. We are of different parties and we come from different parts of Wales, but on this as on most things he speaks eminent sense. There is an elephant in the room, the elephant being the Scottish referendum. We do not know what the result of that referendum will be but, if it be for independence, it will clearly have profound implications for this Bill generally and for a number of facets of the Bill. Therefore, I am pleased to follow his wise words.

[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock]

My Lords, I, too, express my support for the noble Lord, Lord Wigley. The Bill as drafted has not taken account of the Scottish referendum in any way whatever. That is why there are other amendments in my name in relation to eligibility to vote for 16 and 17 year-olds and in relation to the count, and a number of other matters.

I take the opportunity to say now to the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, because I did not want to interrupt his fine reply to the previous amendment, that at the same stage in the consideration of the Equality (Titles) Bill, proposed by the noble Lord, Lord Lucas, nearly 90 amendments were tabled, and in exactly the same stage of the passage of the Bill proposed by the noble Lord, Lord Steel, to further reform the House of Lords, 160 amendments were tabled. Therefore, 80 amendments is not an excessive number, and it ill behoves him and others to criticise Members of the House of Lords for tabling amendments that seek to improve a very bad Bill, as the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, has done and I have done.

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[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, I pose a simple question: who can be against an informed electorate in a democracy? The danger now is that people obtain their views of the European Union from elements of the press which have a clear line. It would be helpful to find, as far as is possible, objective individuals to provide an assessment that can form a basis for an informed electorate.

I can add to the list provided by my noble friend Lady Quin of those who have already expressed a view. The CBI, for example, concluded in a recent report that while the UK could certainly survive outside the European Union none of the alternatives suggested either a clear path to improvement, advantages/disadvantages or greater influence.

There is clearly a danger of both sides exaggerating the consequences of being in or out. The Rhine will not overflow. Armageddon will not come whether we are in or out. It is a question of the balance of advantages and disadvantages, and what can better inform us of that than an independent assessment with which to inform the electorate?

Apart from the CBI, a number of major firms have also expressed a view. They are concerned about the effect on them, on their employment prospects and on further investment in the UK if there were to be a period of uncertainty. These include, for example, easyJet, Nissan, Toyota, Hyundai, and even the Japanese Government. I recall how often Wales has looked to Japan for increased investment and has done fairly well out of it in the past. It is unusual for a Government to express a view on a matter affecting another Government, but the Japanese Government have said that the UK has several advantages as a gateway for the European market and considerable Japanese investment. Japan, effectively, if I may paraphrase, expects this to continue.

Obviously we need to have an informed electorate. There will be consequences whether we remain in or come out but, as a number of noble Lords have said, who knows what developments there will be within the European Union between now and the time of a referendum? Some countries—there has been speculation about Greece in the past—may no longer be members. There may well be, although I think it unlikely, an acceleration of membership and an agreement on migration, and the question of the banking system might change, as the noble Lord, Lord Taverne, has said.

We have impact assessments for a series of other matters: the effect on public expenditure and so on. Certainly in the past when constitutional changes have been made affecting local and regional government, there have been learned commissions to look at them. In my judgment these matters are vital to us—for the UK economy, for European citizens within the UK and for our own citizens outside.

The methodology is available. The Government will be well aware that the Norwegian Government commissioned Professor Fredrik Sejersted to carry out a survey in Norway on the effects, and he was called in to our Foreign Office to advise on the methodology. At the moment it may well be that Mr Murdoch will have a far greater impact on voting intentions and ordinary citizens like ourselves will at least be allowed our say, but in my judgment it is not Mr Murdoch, his press and others who should prevail. The public should be well informed on the consequences for or against before they make the great leap.

[Lord Turnbull (CB)]

My Lords, in the event of a no vote, there will not be a clean break with the rest of the European Union because Europe will still begin 21 miles away. We will be enmeshed in it in hundreds of ways. Just as there is a relationship between Canada and the US, we will have to find a new relationship. In order for someone to carry out this impact study, people will want to know what the Government will try to retain of the existing relationship, to modify and to drop. Where a change is made, the Government will need to set out their ideas for whatever they think should be the successor regime. Without that information, an impact study cannot be made and people will not be able to assess how it will apply to them.

Amendment 72, tabled in my name, comes right at the end of the Marshalled List. It asks the Government to do what only the Government can do, and that is to set out how they think these various regimes will be modified, and from that the impact assessment can be made. The two really go together, but because of the groupings, they will be considered separately. I support this amendment and I hope that in due course noble Lords will support Amendment 72, which is a partner to it.

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[Lord Kinnock]

I support the amendment. If I can be biblical for a moment, I shall take as my text what no less a person than the Prime Minister said in his Bloomberg speech. He said:

“If we left the European Union, it would be a one-way ticket, not a return”.

There can be few bigger questions ever to present themselves to the British people in this or any other age, certainly in peacetime—questions about war, of course, are characteristically not put to the British people. If that is the dimension of the decision, it is very clear that it must be subject to a full assessment, not as an addendum or an afterthought but as a basic prerequisite of conducting a referendum and a meaningful vote in it.

The reason for that is very straightforward: there is no commercial organisation of any dimension, even quite small concerns, which would begin to undertake any significant shift in its product range, in its marketing, in its location and in a proportionately big investment decision without undertaking a full evidence-based assessment of the impact of taking that decision. It would be an assessment of the impact not just on the firm and its labour force but perhaps on the locality, the environment and on transport needs. Anyone who has been part of such decision-making, as many people in this House, including me, have been, is familiar with the very refined techniques that now exist for undertaking comprehensive and thorough impact assessments. That is what the whole of commerce does. Indeed, it is what the whole of local government does. There can be no significant decision facing any council in this whole country that has any kind of recognisable implication for the community, the budget of the council or the well-being of the citizens that is not subject to rigorous impact assessment, particularly risk assessment. Useful techniques exist for undertaking those exercises in ways that are comprehensible to the citizens of the locality as well as to the decision-makers, executive and elected, in the council.

If we are faced as a country before 2017, or maybe after it under the terms of European Union Act 2011, with this monumental choice whether to book a one-way ticket, not a return—in the words of the Prime Minister—an assessment of impact that is comprehensive, thorough and communicated in understandable language would be a basic, vital requirement.

To the list that exists in the proposed “Referendum condition” clause, which is commendable and touches on most of the issues that would be of significance to people, we could add some more words from the Prime Minister. He said that we would have to think about,

“the impact on our influence at the top table of international affairs … That matters for British jobs and British security”.

It is not a detached, academic consideration of whether we have lost an empire and still seek a role, or anything esoteric at all. He said, rightly, that it matters for British jobs and British security.

We could add that question to the list: can we realise the Prime Minister’s and the Chancellor’s ambition of remaining in the single market, whatever happens to our membership of the European Union? The Prime Minister said that that is the most important single reason for us belonging to the European Union. If that is the case, surely the issue must be examined with great rigour. What would be the impact, that we could assess, on our participation in the single market? The results of that assessment should of course be available to the British people for prolonged discussion and comprehension before they come to casting the fateful vote.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, I suspect that there is one other potential impact of deep concern to my noble friend, the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, and myself: the danger that there will be differential social, economic and environmental effects within different parts of the United Kingdom, irrespective of the Scottish dimension. I hope he would agree that that matter should also be canvassed so that those who live on the periphery of the UK can also be aware of what their vote would mean.

[Lord Kinnock]

I am grateful to my noble friend. We could add a number of matters that absolutely, legitimately and centrally would determine attitudes in any referendum—as I said, whether it is held under the terms of this Bill, the one that succeeds it because this Parliament cannot dictate to the succeeding Parliament, or the terms of the 2011 Act. Of course, as my noble friend said, that is absolutely central.

As the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, and my noble friend Lord Anderson will know, I am not in any sense or form a secessionist or nationalist—quite the contrary, I am a unionist in more senses than one. But the fact is that if we were to have a referendum it would be entirely sensible for us to make an arrangement that ensured that its results were acknowledged according to England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland—if it is still part of the United Kingdom, which I dearly hope it will be. That is not in order to create trouble within this United Kingdom but, quite the contrary, so that people could signify their comprehension of the detail of the impact assessment and their calculation of what the real effects of departure could be for the part of the country in which they live and work and which they hold most dear.

I do not want to tire the House with a list of the various concerns that would have to be subject to impact assessment. I simply use what I have said and the illustration provided by my noble friend to further illuminate the argument supporting this amendment. I appeal to the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, to give full recognition to the force of this argument because I know, whatever his enthusiasms about a referendum or our participation in the European Union in future, he would not want Britain to go gentle into what could be a very dark night. He will want to ensure that the British people are in possession of dispassionate analysis and very thorough assessment of what the effect would be of departure from the European Union in order that their vote in a referendum was one of maximum information and, one hopes, wisdom.

That being the case, and respecting the noble Lord, as I do, I hope that he will accept the intellectual, constitutional and political rationale put to him by me and my noble friends in the course of this fairly short debate and be willing to embrace the amendment.

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[Lord Dobbs]

The noble Lord fully understands that that is not at all what I am saying. I am simply suggesting that this is not only a difficult issue but an important one. Of course we want people to make up their minds, and in order for them to do that they need information. Above all, though, what they need first and foremost is a vote—the first vote that they will have had in 40 years.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords—

[Lord Dobbs]

I am coming almost to the end. If the noble Lord insists, then of course I will give way.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

Why should the vote be first and foremost? Should not an evidence-based assessment be first and foremost?

[Lord Dobbs]

My Lords, nothing in the Bill prevents a future Parliament, before a referendum, from asking for just such an independent assessment in the circumstances of the time. Nothing in this Bill says that that is not going to happen. It is simply that this Bill is not required to do that in order for that to be achieved. The people will get their information—they will probably start complaining that they have had too much information—but they do not need this amendment in order to get it.

Having listened to the noble Lord’s argument and not disagreeing with his fundamental approach that the people of course need the right information to make up their minds, given that it is not necessary for this amendment to be passed in order for them to get that information, I respectfully ask him to withdraw his amendment.

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[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

Nothing in this amendment in any way affects the first line of this Bill that says that there shall be a referendum. This amendment concerns only whether it is wise to set in the Bill the end date by which time the referendum must have been held. That is my sole point. I have heard no rationale for the 2017 date. I look forward to the explanation of his rationale from the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs. It will not be sufficient for me to hear that the Prime Minister said in the Bloomberg speech that it would be by the end of 2017. He said the first half of the Parliament. That would not be a sufficient rationale for me because it was not put in advance through the political process and raised in Parliament and is not, as I understand it, government policy. It is the policy of the Conservative Party, just as the Bloomberg speech was the policy of the Conservative Party. If we have to have a date in the Bill and it has to be the end of 2017, please tell us why. I can think of only one reason and I am not of a suspicious mind. If you wanted a referendum to produce the result that the UK leaves the European Union, you could not pick a better time. You are saying that the Government must bring their renegotiation to a head in what must be, because of the French and German elections, absolutely the worst year to do it. You are saying that they have to try to cut corners and accelerate the timetable, which the European Union will want to follow. You are maximising the chances that they lose friends, fail to influence people and do not get the renegotiation objectives they have in mind—

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

Clearly the date chosen—before 2017—appears to be the worst possible time, as the noble Lord properly points out. It is also during the UK presidency and it will prove extraordinarily difficult for the UK objectively to be chairing the European Union as president and at the same time be pursuing objectives the purpose of which we do not yet know.

[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

I agree. Again it is the cui bono question. Why would you want to set this timing unless your aim is to get us out? I look forward to hearing an alternative, more encouraging explanation of the rationale from the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, and until I do, I think that we should take this date out of the Bill.

I am very uneasy about the whole renegotiation process. I am very uneasy that we are raising public expectations in this country by saying week after week, issue after issue, “Yes, we will sort that out in the renegotiation”. Everybody agrees that the EU needs reform but reform is an amorphous, amoeba-like creature, and it seems to go off in different directions depending on whatever the Daily Mail says this week. We are always told, “Don’t worry, it’ll be dealt with in the renegotiation”.

I think that there are issues that can be renegotiated, and I am absolutely not, in principle, against renegotiation. However, one has to be clear with the country, preferably before the election, about precisely what kind of European Union one is trying to create and whether it is going to work—how many friends you have and how negotiable are your aims—and one needs to be honest about it.

If your Lordships want a renegotiation and they want it to succeed, Amendment 10 deserves their support, because a successful renegotiation is incompatible with a 2017 deadline.

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[Lord Bowness (Con)]

My Lords, I have put my name to Amendments 10, 23 and 24 in this group. Sitting on the Conservative Benches in your Lordships’ House, I should perhaps explain why I have done so. I did so because I believe that it is in the interests of not only the United Kingdom and the European Union but also of the Conservative Party to ensure that my right honourable friend the Prime Minister, if he is the Prime Minister after the next election—on these Benches we hope that he is—is not placed in a straitjacket into which we are in danger of tying him if the provision in this Bill is not amended as suggested by the noble Lord, Lord Kerr of Kinlochard.

Can I just take a moment to remind the House of the history of this matter? We as a party have moved from a position of total rejection of a referendum to the promise of one in the next Parliament to the acceptance of a Bill in this Parliament and, sadly, to the inadequate Bill that now is before us.

The noble Lord, Lord Kerr of Kinlochard, has gone through in considerable detail the necessary steps which have to be taken to achieve an amendment of the treaties. I will not weary your Lordships by reading out or referring to Article 48 of the Treaty on European Union. Suffice it to say that it encapsulates all those steps. Suffice it to say also that this is not the first time that I have asked in your Lordships’ House this question of my noble friends on the Front Bench: how is it envisaged that you can negotiate meaningful, serious and significant changes within the period 2015 to 2017, given the provisions of the treaty by which we are bound? The answer cannot be that there is a fast-track procedure, because that is for small matters. If we are talking about only small matters, why are we going through this agony here today?

I suggest that the date is not practical. It is possible to envisage a situation where negotiations are not completed before the deadline is reached. What happens then? Do we have a referendum on incomplete negotiation? What will be the position of the hoped-for Conservative Government and the hoped-for Conservative Prime Minister then? What recommendation will he or she make to the country? The Prime Minister has said that he wants to campaign enthusiastically, post negotiations, for the United Kingdom’s continued membership of the European Union. I therefore address my remarks particularly to my noble friends on this side of the Committee. If we support him in that statement of policy, let us ensure that he has the space to do the job he has told us he wants to do, and if we do, that we will support the amendment moved by the noble Lord, Lord Kerr of Kinlochard.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, the noble Lord, Lord Bowness, has made a brave speech and, dare I say, a consistent speech because the position he has outlined is that which was taken by the Prime Minister and the Foreign Secretary in 2011. He is therefore being consistent, and one could well ask why there has been a change to what he referred to as the downward slope. Historically I could make the same point over a rather longer period.

When as a young man I joined the Foreign Office in 1960 and was doing some work for Mr Edward Heath, at that time the Conservative Party was enthusiastically in favour of Europe. I concede that in 1983 there was an appalling manifesto from my party—the death warrant. Then there was a reversal of the parties. Mr Major had a torrid time with people whose paternity he doubted, but the problem is that the people whose paternity he doubted are now in the driving seat of the Conservative Party. Mr Major has made very clear his own position: he does not support Mr Wharton’s Bill, which is masquerading as a Private Member’s Bill.

It is clear that the date is crucial, so why was it chosen? I picture a little conference in the darkness of the night in Downing Street, with a large bran tub with a series of dates in it. Someone pulls a date out of the tub and says, “Why not 2017?”. It appears to be as arbitrary as that. We have been given no serious explanation of why it should be the date, but we have been given a very good explanation by the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, as to why it should not be used. We have the good fortune to have in this House the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, who has immense experience of negotiating with our European partners. We also have the benefit of the noble Lord, Lord Hannay. Having been our ambassador in UKRep in Brussels, he knows where the bodies are buried, how negotiations are carried out, and about the need to build up a team in support of the position one wishes to favour. That is the real battle.

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[Lord Dobbs]

May I please just finish this point? The noble Lord, Lord Anderson, mentioned Sir John Major. Sir John is entirely in support of this referendum. He says it is the only way that we can rid the poison of the European issue from the distrust of the people.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

We may have to disagree about Sir John Major. I have a quotation from him here saying that he would not support the Wharton Bill. Give me 10 minutes and I will find it but I am afraid I do not have it to hand.

[Baroness Symons of Vernham Dean]

My Lords, the noble Lord has twice made the point with a great rhetorical flourish that he hears no other date being mentioned. However, he is the sponsor of the Bill that specifies the date and so far I have not heard a single reason why 2017 is the right one. I heard the noble Lord, Lord Kerr of Kinlochard, give a series of reasons why it is the wrong one. My noble friend Lord Triesman told the House that the noble Lord, Lords Dobbs, could not have chosen a worse date but so far the noble Lord has simply relied on saying, “Well, you find another date”. No: it is the noble Lord’s responsibility to defend his Bill and his date. I look forward to him doing so specifically.

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[Lord Dobbs]

Again, if I have given that impression to the noble Baroness, I apologise, but that has never been my intent in this. We know that some in this House have been playing games about this Bill, and I have gone a long way in accepting that the debate we have just had has been serious, sensible and one that I welcome.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords—

[Lord Dobbs]

No, my Lords, I really wish to stand my ground.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, we had a certain difference about what Sir John Major had said. I now have the quotation. John Major was quoted as saying that the Bill was not worthy of his support and that leaving the European Union would be “folly beyond belief”.

[Lord Dobbs]

I could dig out another quote, but that would take another five minutes, and I think that this debate has gone on long enough and I wish to conclude.

In conclusion, I thank the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, for the positive engagement that he has encouraged between us outside the Chamber on the issues; it has been very helpful to me. Of course, we disagree about this matter across the Floor of the House, and I think that it is now time for us to decide. With great respect, I ask the noble Lord to withdraw his amendment.

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Moved by

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

25: Clause 1, page 1, line 6, at end insert—
“( ) No order shall be made under subsection (3) until the Secretary of State has reported to Parliament for its approval on recommendations made by an independent commission which shall be established for the purpose of considering and reporting on the United Kingdom’s alternatives to membership of the European Union.”

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, the two amendments in my name are supported by the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes of Cumnock, and my noble friend Lord Wigley. They are reporting amendments, and I shall give the details of them in a moment. I am aware of the time, and I am also aware that the substance of these matters comes up elsewhere, so I can be very brief.

I turn to what the amendments are about. The first of these reporting amendments says that there shall be a report for approval on recommendations made by an independent commission that shall be established for the purpose of considering and reporting on the UK’s alternatives to membership of the EU.

My broad submission is this: the real choice for our people is not in or out but in or what? They could be myriad alternatives that our people are concerned about as to what they would prefer to have in place of the EU. I will not go into detail on this because I propose to do so on Amendments 33 to 39 in my name, which would give in the referendum itself the opportunity for the electorate to say, “Well, if we wish to leave the EU, we would prefer to be like Norway; we would prefer to be like Switzerland; we would prefer to have a closer relationship with the United States, and perhaps with Canada, in a North American free trade association”. It may be that the electorate will say, “We want to develop a closer relationship with the Commonwealth”. What I am saying is this: if we are serious about ascertaining the views of the people, we should give them a series of alternatives. In so doing, we, with this independent commission, should also set out the advantages and disadvantages of each possible course. That is the reporting as it refers to Amendment 25.

Amendment 26 is again a reporting amendment, saying that no order should be made until the Secretary of State has reported to Parliament for its approval on the negotiations between the UK and other EU member states concerning our relationship with the EU. We covered this to some extent in the previous debates, and I look forward to resuming this debate on Report. However, at some stage there clearly has to be a report from the negotiators and the Prime Minister on whether the criteria that he has set have or have not been achieved.

The noble Baroness, who admitted to speaking only for the Conservative Party, set out various criteria which it would want to be achieved. I suspect she needs to go much further than that so that we have various targets against which we can measure whether the negotiators have succeeded in achieving their aims. We know the position in various international matters where you retreat and call it victory. I suspect there is a great deal of mistrust not only on the part of the electorate in politicians generally but among Conservative Party members in respect of their Prime Minister—as we know the Prime Minister travels fairly lightly on Europe, as he does on most things. It is clear that the referendum Bill would not be necessary if the Conservative Party had total trust in its Prime Minister. The whole point of trying to tie him down to get what the Germans call a “book with seven seals”—that is, to have a copper-bottomed guarantee—is that they do not trust the word of the Prime Minister that he wants to have a referendum and wants to have it after the next election. They are trying to tie him down. That is the essence of this.

Therefore the second amendment is a reporting amendment and states that, whatever may be the negotiating stance or the criteria, benchmarks and targets which the Prime Minister has set, he will report to Parliament for its approval of the negotiations and say where we stand.

These are two brief amendments, both on reporting. I hope that it will objectively be agreed by Members of your Lordships’ House that the alternatives to our membership of the European Union are very important, and if the public are to be seriously consulted—I shall come on to this in later amendments so shall not go on extensively now—they will need to have a very clear idea of the advantages and disadvantages of the various alternatives as well as a negotiating report, as in the second amendment. I beg to move.

[Lord Wigley]

My Lords, I have put my name to both amendments in this group. I thank the noble Lord, Lord Anderson, for moving them briefly. I shall speak very briefly indeed, as he indicated that he will want to come back to certain aspects of these issues on Report.

It is vital that we nail the idea now that there must be clarity with regard to the alternatives to membership before the referendum takes place. The worst possible outcome of a referendum would be if it were voted on in a nihilistic atmosphere and with a nihilistic attitude and people were just saying no to something without having the faintest idea what was going to happen. If that were to be the case, and we were to pull out of the European Union on that basis, and if things then started to unravel, there would be immense bitterness, and I am not sure where that would take us politically. There needs to be a mechanism for spelling out what the alternatives are, and that mechanism has to go beyond the daily or weekly press. There needs to be some objective assessment of those alternatives, and people have to know what those assessments add up to. Therefore, in whatever way we try adding this to the Bill, I hope that that issue, that dimension, will be taken on board.

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

My Lords, there is another amendment on the Order Paper, Amendment 72—which we are not within miles of reaching and will obviously not reach in the next 50 minutes—which covers very much this ground. It is down in the name of the noble Lord, Lord Turnbull, and would basically put a requirement on the Government to state before the referendum took place what alternative relationship Britain should seek to have with the European Union without Britain in it, if there were a no vote. I agree absolutely with what the noble Lords, Lord Wigley and Lord Anderson, said. It is essential that before the electorate cast their vote they should be told what the consequences in terms of Britain’s relationship with the truncated European Union would be in the event of a no vote. It would be too late to say what the Government are going to do after the vote; they must say so up front, before the vote.

However, that will come up in the later amendment as well. At the moment, the important thing is to note that this is a serious issue which will have to be addressed on Report, or in Committee when we get to Amendment 72. I hope that by the time we get there, the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, refreshed by a certain period of repose after his exertions today, will see the sense of this as one of the amendments which basically strengthens the Bill. It does not weaken it; it does not make a referendum less likely; it does not prejudge the outcome of the referendum or anything like that. It just means that if and when the referendum comes, there will be before the British people a clear idea of what the alternative is if, in their majority, they vote no.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

There is a considerable difference between this amendment and Amendment 72, tabled by the noble Lord, Lord Turnbull. His amendment relates only to the intended relationship with what the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, called the truncated European Union, whereas this amendment relates to the whole panoply of possible alternatives. I gave some of those as examples: a relationship like that of Norway or Switzerland, the Commonwealth, the EEA or EFTA—one could go on. Both are important matters and should be discussed.

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

I do not want to disagree totally with the noble Lord, Lord Anderson, but, quite frankly, if you look at Amendment 72 of the noble Lord, Lord Turnbull, it is clear that, under it, the Government of the day would have to say, “If you vote no, we will try to get an agreement to join the EEA”, for example; or, “We would like to have a series of agreements like the Swiss”—there are 30 or 50 of them; or, “We would have none of the above and would rely simply on our World Trade Organisation membership”. All the things that the noble Lord, Lord Anderson, has discussed in his amendment are actually also covered in Amendment 72. I am saying merely that we will come to that later, on another day.

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[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

I, too, hope that we return to this matter at a later stage, but not in the next Parliament. This is an important matter, and every Member of your Lordships’ House who has spoken has agreed that it is an important matter, so in my judgment it should be addressed on Report. The noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, said that there would be alternatives pursued, but the alternatives are not within the power of the Government before the referendum, because who knows whether the European Union would be willing to enter into an agreement analogous with that reached with Switzerland, for example? There are great problems with that; it is said by those who are experts in the field that there is no way in which the European Union would replicate the agreement that has been reached with Switzerland. So it is not within the power of any Government to say that they will conclude an agreement of that particular nature.

Quite properly, the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, has said that we are not blind. I agree with him that the public, if they so decide, should not step from the European Union into a void. This is an important matter—I tabled it and the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, agreed that it was for debate. Until that future debate, which I hope will come at Report, I am pleased to withdraw the amendment.

Amendment 25 withdrawn.

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[Lord Gardiner of Kimble (Con)]

My Lords, it may be helpful if I read from the brief, which suggests that, if Amendment 28 is agreed to, we cannot call Amendments 31 to 39 inclusive because of pre-emption. That is the reason why we are moving to Amendment 40.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

Confusion now has sown its masterpiece. I do not understand on what basis my amendment was pre-empted, and, on a matter of courtesy, no one has told me that this was so. We have not debated these matters which, in my judgment, are important. That is why I limited my speech on the report in relation to alternatives to a very brief statement so that I could develop my points in relation to Amendments 33 to 39.

[Lord Gardiner of Kimble]

My Lords, I apologise but my understanding is that the relevant text in the Bill has been removed. Amendments 31 to 39 have fallen, as it were, because of the pre-emption. That provision has gone.

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[Lord Roper]

My Lords, perhaps I can help the House. This morning, when we carried Amendment 1, Amendments 2 to 7 were pre-empted on the same basis, because they would have been introduced into the Bill at the place where subsection (1) was previously. The same thing has now occurred because of the success that the noble Lord, Lord Armstrong, has had with his second amendment today. By removing subsection (4), the place where the amendments which the noble Lord, Lord Anderson, would like to move would have been inserted has disappeared. In so far as Amendments 2 to 7 were pre-empted, and the House accepted that earlier today, it seems to me that the same logic applies with these further amendments.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

That sounds fairly plausible, but it is the time of day when even plausibility might not be such. We are probably at the point, dare I say, when one might consider drawing stumps. After all, it has been a fairly long day in the field.

[Lord Gardiner of Kimble]

My Lords, I rather think that the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, was already wanting to speak on the group beginning Amendment 40 and that your Lordships would rather like to hear from the noble Lord.

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[Lord Wigley]

My Lords, my name is added to some, but not all, of these amendments. It appears that two important aspects are covered in different ways. The first is whether a threshold should be required for the outcome to have credibility. There are arguments both ways on that, and there are dangers. I do not need to remind my noble friend Lord Foulkes that in 1979 Scotland voted by a majority in favour of having a Scottish Parliament—or Assembly, as it was then called—with 33% voting yes and 31% voting no. However, because of the 40% threshold rule, it did not happen. My noble friend will be very aware of the consternation that that caused, with the feeling that a majority had been in favour.

It is very important to set a threshold at a level that is acceptable and which does not appear to be loaded one way or another. I suppose that a 25% threshold is an absolute minimum, but I should be very interested in hearing the response of the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, on this. Depending on what is said between now and Report, we will no doubt need to come back to refine these thoughts further.

The other element built into these amendments—which, grouped together, bring in different aspects—is the question of the results from the four nations of the United Kingdom. The noble Lord, Lord Kinnock, touched on this in an earlier debate. I put it to the Committee that there is a strong argument for each of the four constituent nations of the United Kingdom to know how they have voted. If they do not, assumptions will be made, and those assumptions may be the cause of much more political rancour than dealing with the reality of the situation. If Scotland votes yes and England votes no and the English vote dominates the rest of the United Kingdom, there will undoubtedly be pressures in Scotland, as my noble friend Lord Foulkes rightly said, to reopen the whole question of the independence referendum, assuming that it is not carried the first time round. We know what happened in Quebec when there was a rerun of a referendum: it came very much closer than had been the case on the first occasion. Therefore, these issues need to be thought about very carefully.

I come from a different viewpoint from virtually everybody else in the House with regard to the Scottish referendum but I recognise that, whichever point of view you come from, the outcome needs to be logical, transparent and acceptable, and I hope that we will work towards that in the context of these amendments.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

I want to make a few points. First, I think that my noble friend Lord Foulkes is following a pipe dream if he thinks that there will be a definitive decision. I concede that if there were a substantial majority one way or the other, that would be a definitive decision, but we should remember not just the precedent of the Cunningham amendment but the precedent of 1975, when there was a very clear decision by the electorate to remain within the EEC. However, people such as Tony Benn and others were very quick not to accept the result and they lobbied against it.

In US politics there is a story—probably apocryphal —of a decision which was made by a drunken member of the public who, a minute or so before the polls closed, staggered into a polling station and fell on to a voting machine. His vote was the decisive one on that occasion. That sounds rather absurd but there was a film on that same theme in a key state in a presidential election.

Given the importance of the decision that the electorate will be making in the referendum, if it goes ahead, it is important that we seriously consider a threshold, not at this stage but on Report.

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, I am not seeking to interrupt for bad reasons the progress of the Bill or to prevent the next Peer speaking on the amendment. For the last hour or so, Members of the House have been asking what happens next. When my noble friend Lord Popat was challenged about rising times, he was unaware that amicable discussions were going ahead between myself and the Opposition Chief Whip with regard to today’s business.

The expectation of the Opposition Chief Whip and myself is that the House will rise after the conclusion of Amendment 48, which is shortly ahead of us now. I am saying this now so that those who wish to speak to the amendment after Amendment 48 but may not be involved in the rest of today’s business will have a better certainty about the planes and trains they need to catch.

There is an agreement that we should conclude today’s business at the end of Amendment 48 and I shall not seek to prolong the Committee stage beyond that. At that stage I shall seek to resume the House and shortly after that I shall adjourn the House. I will, in the normal way, as a courtesy to the House indicate formally—I am doing it informally now—that we will continue the Committee stage of this Bill next Friday, 31 January at 10 o’clock. My expectation is that the Committee stage will conclude on that day and, given the progress today, I believe that is a reasonable assumption.

I hope that that is helpful to all concerned who, in different ways, have been working hard on this Bill and for different reasons. I now invite those noble Lords who are taking part in the debate on Amendment 40 to continue to do so. I am grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Bassam, for the helpful discussions we have had today.

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[Lord Wigley]

I am grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Crickhowell, for his comments. I acknowledge immediately that during his time in office progress was made with regard to the Welsh language, and incidentally the late Wyn Roberts also played a significant part in that. However, the point is that in most legislation of this sort these words would be in a schedule, but there is no schedule here. We have the English version in the Bill, which is why there is an amendment to have a Welsh version as well. That would at least get the balance right. It may well be that between now and Report an amendment needs to be drafted saying that both should be treated with equality in this Chamber as they would be in Wales.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, my name also appears on the amendments. I have one little concern regarding my noble friend Lord Foulkes’s comments: he said that the Gaelic version should appear only in the parts of Scotland that speak Gaelic. If one were to transpose that to Wales, some might argue that in Monmouthshire, for example, where very little Welsh is spoken, at least on the eastern side in the border area, there should be a different ballot paper. In my judgment, if there is to be a Gaelic version it should be throughout Scotland, otherwise there will be enormous problems regarding where to draw the line. To follow up what the noble Lord, Lord Crickhowell, said, there is, happily, a consensus in Wales in respect of the language. We have managed to avoid the language divisions that have rent Belgium over the years, and that in large part is because of the work by the noble Lord but particularly of Lord Roberts of Conwy. The Welsh Language Act and the equal validity principle are a memoriam to the work that he did.

[Lord Armstrong of Ilminster]

My Lords, my knowledge of the Welsh language is even more spectacularly uncertain than that of the noble Lord, Lord Trefgarne. Is the language in Amendment 45 a precise translation of the amended version of the question?

Gibraltar

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Monday 20th January 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

My Lords, there are a number of issues that are of course competences for the Government of Gibraltar; it is important that the United Kingdom Government ensures that they become involved only in those issues that are competences as far as the United Kingdom Government are concerned. I was not entirely clear as to the specific question that my noble and learned friend asked, but it may well be that I can go back through Hansard and then write to him in detail. However, our strategy at this stage is very clear: to de-escalate the situation and to try to resolve these matters through diplomatic and political routes.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, the sea incursions are clearly very reckless—

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[The Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster (Lord Hill of Oareford) (Con)]

My Lords, as the noble Lord, Lord Anderson, is on his feet, perhaps we can hear briefly from him and then hear from the noble Lord, Lord Pearson.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

I will repeat: the sea incursions are clearly reckless and the border delays are highly damaging to the economy of Gibraltar. In October and November, the peak period, visitors to Gibraltar were down by 44%. Should not we urge the Spanish Government to respond to the recommendations of the European Commission—which we can do as we are now, and will remain, a member of the European Union—and should not the Spanish Government be told that these provocations will not help, because there is overwhelming support among all parties for listening to the Government and people of Gibraltar before there is any change in Gibraltar’s status?

[Baroness Warsi]

The noble Lord is right that the incursions have been steadily increasing: in 2011, there were about 23 incursions; in 2012, they went up to 228; and in 2013 they went up to 509. The good news is that there has been a welcome reduction since December of last year, so this may mean that there is a slight change in attitude. We have been asking for the ad hoc talks to resume; we have reiterated to the Spanish Government the Foreign Secretary’s proposal of ad hoc talks, which he made in April 2012, involving all the relevant parties.