Court of Justice of the European Union

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Monday 23rd July 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, I thank the Minister for his usual clear explanation of what he has called “modest” and “technical” documents. I note that when his counterpart in the other place, David Lidington, set out the case in similarly moderate terms, he was assailed by visceral Europhobes on the government Benches, which illustrates, perhaps, the Government’s problem in pursuing a sensible European Union policy. Happily, looking around, I think it unlikely that the Minister will be assailed in a similar way today.

My substantive point is this: what is the mischief aimed at by these documents? Surely it is to reduce delays in the Court and generally to make it more efficient. Hardly a controversial aim, and the Government broadly accept these aims. The question is whether they are ready to accept the means to achieve those aims. The report of Sub-Committee E, to which the Minister alluded, published in April last year, was highly commended by the Court itself but had a disappointing response from the Government.

We set out the delays and predicted another crisis of workload, as a result both of the Lisbon additions to the work in the area of freedom, security and justice, and of the number of expansions of the membership of the European Union. The predictions of that sub-committee have indeed come to pass, in that in 2009 there were 17 preliminary requests in respect of Lisbon areas but in 2011 there were 44 such requests. That comes from the last annual report of the court, just published.

If justice delayed is justice denied, then there is a prime delay and hence a great deal of denial. The most recent annual report shows that in 2011 the General Court was certainly more productive but at the same time the backlog increased substantially. Clearly the Court cannot keep up with the volume of new business coming to it. To improve the situation, there are three broad areas to be considered.

The first is translation; it is a booming industry. We know prolix lawyers. The proposal to limit the translation to those deemed essential by the court was rejected, probably correctly, because only the litigants themselves can decide that which is important. The compromise was agreed that the Court of Justice may set the maximum of written proceedings. We must now wait to see if the result of that change justifies the Government’s confidence.

There were institutional changes, such as specialist committees, that were rightly rejected as they are inflexible. However, there were some useful minor reforms—for example, new powers given to the vice-president to reduce the workload on the president, and changes in the composition of the grand chamber to even out the workload between the judges. But the key way of reducing the backlog and increasing efficiency is clearly to increase the number of judges in the General Court—the suggestion is by at least 12. That was done in the Civil Service Tribunal by the appointment of three temporary judges in certain circumstances, as the Minister said. That may indeed be a partial solution for the General Court itself, but one cannot avoid the strong case for an increase in numbers.

In May, the Government supported the delay during the Danish presidency of the creation of a friends of the presidency group. The Minister will be well aware from Syria of the new currency of friends of this and friends of that in international parliaments. But there will be a delay until at least December until this informal procedure publishes its report and one returns to the formal procedure.

Therefore, the conclusion is that of course the Government must scrutinise very carefully any proposition for an increase in judges at this time of austerity, but there are also costs in delay. In 2009, as the Minister said, the CBI complained to the sub-committee that in competition cases—those cases most relevant to the single market—the average delay was then 33.1 months. The Minister will have noted that in 2011, according to the annual report, the average delay was 50.5 months. That is more than four years for litigants and business in the UK in single market cases to have to wait for a determination. Surely the Minister and the Government will accept that that is an intolerable delay.

With this compromise of the friends of the presidency, which will seek to report by December, in effect the Government and their allies are putting off a decision for yet another year. In December there will be the report of the friends of the presidency. That will have to be referred to the Council itself. The Council will have to deliberate on the various recommendations. Thereafter, if an increase is agreed—and almost certainly there will have to be some increase in the numbers—there will have to be a recruitment procedure. Perhaps the Minister can confirm this but there will probably have to be yet another delay of perhaps a year before any proposals arising from the friends of the presidency can be implemented.

We have seen the delays rise from 33 to 50 months. It may be well on another 10 or 12 months’ further delay, at great cost to British industry and great damage to the single market. The Government may be penny-wise but they will be proved to be pound-foolish.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

The Minister mentioned the December report. He surely recognises that that is an informal procedure, which has to be restored to the formal tracks. Does the Minister agree that it may take a year from now before any new judges are in place?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

I cannot really agree with that because I do not know exactly how the pressures will build up. It is possible, of course, that it will take a year—that is a gloomy assessment—but the report may be very well focused. The momentum behind it may increase. Indeed, the results of this evening’s debate may assist in the kind of momentum that the noble Lord wants to see.

The noble Lord, Lord Bowness, who obviously speaks with enormous authority on these matters, asked particularly why Section 10 applied to the draft regulation relating to temporary judges of the EU Civil Service Tribunal. The answer is that the legal basis of that draft regulation is Article 257 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, and that is listed in Section 10(1)(d) of the European Union Act 2011, which we took through this House a year ago. That is the technical answer to the very detailed question that the noble Lord rightly put, because it is the detail that this Chamber can focus on remarkably effectively. It gives me great pleasure that your Lordships’ House is able to look in such detail at these matters.

Your Lordships mentioned a whole range of other issues, all coming back to the question of delay. Obviously costs are involved. In this age, we cannot just put them aside. Although costs should not be the decisive matter, we should take them very carefully into consideration.

The noble Lord, Lord Hannay, pointed out that, in addition to the fact that the Lisbon treaty obviously added greatly to the functions and responsibilities of the ECJ, ahead lie other key decisions about opting in and opting out in 2014. They are decisions that we will have to debate and they will be taken very carefully. I think that almost every other noble Lord who spoke, including the noble Lords, Lord Marks of Henley-on-Thames and Lord Liddle, and I have mentioned all the other noble Lords, all referred to speeding up matters.

Gibraltar

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Monday 16th July 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Hoyle]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what has been their response to incursions into the British sovereign waters off Gibraltar by the Spanish Guardia Civil.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, on behalf of my noble friend Lord Hoyle, and with his permission, I beg leave to ask the Question standing in his name on the Order Paper.

[The Minister of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Lord Howell of Guildford)]

My Lords, the Royal Navy challenges Guardia Civil and other Spanish state vessels whenever they make unlawful maritime incursions into British Gibraltar territorial waters. In such cases, we also make formal protests to the Spanish Government through diplomatic channels, making clear that such behaviour represents an unacceptable violation of British sovereignty.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, the Minister is well aware that in spite of the fact that Gibraltar territorial waters are recognised by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, there has been a considerable increase in incursions by Guardia Civil vessels into Gibraltar territorial waters. There were none in 2009, eight in 2010, 280 in 2011 and well over 160 this year. In light of that escalation, and to avoid any further increase, will the Government join the Gibraltar Chief Minister, the honourable Fabian Picardo, in challenging our good ally Spain to refer the matter for determination by the International Court of Justice or by the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea? Otherwise, on behalf of Gibraltar, will we take the matter to those international courts ourselves for final determination?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

The noble Lord is quite right about the increase in the number of these incursions. The problem about referring the issue to the International Court of Justice is that of course it requires all involved parties to agree to it, which does not appear to be in prospect. We believe that the right way forward is the one we are adopting, which is that the response should be measured, we should continue to press the Spanish Government very carefully and there is no point raising the temperature or tension in these matters, as they can be resolved by discussion. We would like of course to go back to the trilateral talks based on the Cordoba agreement, if we could. They were progressing, but that route, too, seems blocked. The way forward is, as I have described, to insist that these are unlawful maritime incursions and should not be accepted. We raise them in the strongest possible terms with the Spanish Government at every opportunity.

Middle East: Recent Developments

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Friday 13th July 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, as we saw in the US debate over Iraq, military men are often the least belligerent. I begin by congratulating the Minister on yet another magisterial opening speech and the Government on providing yet another debate on the Middle East. I see the Middle East rather like a restless sea: always turbulent but with different spouts of water—different crises—appearing at different times. Two years ago it was Libya and Bahrain; now it is Syria and Egypt. There is always some crisis somewhere in the Middle East.

We would normally expect a concentration on Israel and Palestine, but today that is less the case because essentially the international community has given up on progress. There is indeed some progress in the Occupied Territories at the micro-level of economic development but there is no progress and no prospect of progress on the major issues that divide the parties. However, overall in the Middle East, it is clear that something fundamental is happening in the Arab world. No country is wholly untouched. The flames move from one country to another—from the Maghreb to Sudan and of course to Yemen. The foundations are being shaken and changes are occurring everywhere. The Jordanian King is inviting Hamas. As democrats, we must surely welcome these changes and encourage the developments that are taking place.

I shall make some general reflections, obviously concentrating on the Arab world, yet it is significant that the three most powerful nations in the region—Iran, Turkey and Israel—are non-Arab. The problem, as I see it, is, first, the terms that we use as we seek to describe what is happening: the Arab spring, the Arab awakening or the Arab revolution. We are always seeking to see these developments through a western perspective and we use terms that are less relevant to happenings in a different climate. It is what the French would call the faux amis, or false friends.

We refer to the “Arab spring”. There was an interesting article today in the Financial Times by Tzipi Livni, the former Foreign Minister of Israel, headed “Neither an Arab spring nor an Islamist winter”. Spring sometimes leads to winter. We think of the Prague spring of 1968, which afterwards led to further repression in the old Czechoslovakia. We also think of the hopes raised in 2005 by the Damascus spring and the further repression that came thereafter, leading to the current crisis.

The term “Arab awakening” was used in the early 20th century to describe the Arab nationalist revival at that time. It perhaps had its apogee with Nasser and Egyptian nationalism but it was essentially secular; it did not have a major religious element. Today, religion is often fundamental. Therefore, that is not a model.

Another term is “Arab revolution”. In European terms we think of 1848 or 1989, but the Soviet empire, particularly in central and eastern Europe, covered countries which often had a deep democratic tradition. The danger is in thinking of other revolutions—that of 1789, which began with the liberals blowing on the flames of a revolution that eventually consumed them, and that led to the Terror and eventually the Empire. We also think of the Iranian revolution, which began with the liberals—Bakhtiar and the others—and eventually led to the mullahs. Therefore, we have to be careful. Perhaps the absolutisms are more shaky now because of Twitter, but that is another consideration.

So, in despair, some of the think-tankers in Washington are now talking about the “Arab thing”. However, even that is misleading because the different manifestations of the unrest are as important as the matters that unite. For example, the winner of the recent elections in Libya, Mr Jibril, is called in the western press a liberal, thus attaching our western terms to him, yet he has said that he very much wishes to base his constitution on Sharia law. Where is western liberalism as we look at that?

Therefore, there was an overall failure in the western media to prepare us for the different manifestations, particularly in Tahrir Square. Cairo-based correspondents would interview a group of English-speaking, often western-educated, intellectuals, but in fact, when it came to the elections, 70% of those elected to the lower House and 80% of those elected to the upper House were either Muslim Brotherhood or Salafists. It is too easy to ignore the mass of the people—a point well made by the noble Lord, Lord Lamont. In Syria, the conflict is portrayed in black and white, and it requires the noble Lord, Lord Lamont, in a very good speech, and the noble Lord, Lord Wright, to at least give a certain nuance to the reality of the opposition.

The reality is that throughout the region religion has deep roots, and we ignore that at our peril. Who can forget Sir Anthony Parsons’ mea culpa over the failure of the Foreign Office to understand what was happening in the markets of Iran and a failure to see the importance of the mullahs prior to 1979. In Jordan, which we all admire in many ways, observers now say that the wearing of Islamic dress has advanced massively. In Egypt, people yearn for freedom, as the Gallup polls have shown over time. So the debate over the compatibility of Islam and western-style democracy has yet to be resolved. In Nigeria, for example, I was brought up to think of the major divisions as being between the various tribes. Now, the divisions are no longer tribal but religious ones between Islam and Christianity. The other point to make is the Sunni-Shia divide between and within states. It explains some of the problems, such as those in Syria or those involving Bahrain and the Saudis, preventing the island of Bahrain becoming wholly within the influence of Shia Iran.

Therefore, it is difficult to transplant democracy on to different soil. Israel, of course, is the great exception because of the great Jewish tradition of democracy from the European Jews. I think of the strictures of the several reports of the United Nations Development Programme on human development in the Arab world. Why are the Arab countries not developing more? It is a question not just of governance but of culture. Those reports are well worth reading lest we try to exaggerate the possibilities of development today. The realities exposed by those UNDP reports will not evaporate in the spring sunshine.

Finally, I wish to say a few words about Egypt. It is obviously the key country. It is central geographically in the Arab world; it is the most populous country; and culturally and politically it is by far the most important country. Now, there are new uncertainties—we certainly see through a glass very darkly. There are far more questions than answers. Who is President Morsi? How pragmatic is he? What are the policies of the Muslim Brotherhood in terms of women and minorities? What will be its foreign policy? Will Israel be scapegoated if things go wrong? There are still the fundamental problems of the economy—the decline of tourism, for example. We hope that the current confrontation between SCAF, the army and the president will be resolved. Happily, the supreme court is seen by both as playing a major role. One needs a grand bargain, and the army will have to be accommodated. Are both sides ready for that?

How do we respond to this turbulent Arab scene? We should recognise our limitations and recognise that the problems will have to be decided internally. We should be ready to intervene if asked with our use of soft power, such as the Venice Commission, the various foundations, the Westminster Foundation, the German foundations and others, including EU Mediterranean initiatives. We can only be benevolent outsiders with our feet on the ground, realistic but ready to intervene if asked.

China: Mineral Acquisitions

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Thursday 12th July 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

My Lords, the motives behind the enormous expansion of Chinese investment across the whole globe—not just in Asia, Africa and South America—are mixed. In some cases the motives are purely commercial. At the head of the list, I think, one would put the Chinese authorities’ desire to acquire access to resources—minerals and particularly hydrocarbons—around the world to meet their enormous and very rapidly growing needs. There are also some direct concerns in investment to promote the welfare of the recipient countries. The British Government have in fact signed a memorandum of understanding with the Chinese Government on poverty reduction in the low-income countries. This is one of many dialogues that we conduct all the time with the Chinese on these matters.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

What assessment have our own strategic planners and those of our allies made of the dangers of China over a longer term gaining such a monopoly of scarce mineral resources that it will be in a position to manipulate prices and possibly to manipulate other users of those scarce materials?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

Of course, these dangers of monopoly control exist in all extractive industries, particularly for scarce resources. We have to watch those matters very carefully. What might be behind the noble Lord’s question is the issue of rare earths, the use of which is essential in practically every mobile telephone and the production of which was very much under Chinese control until recently. However, any attempt to limit the export of rare earths and thereby to manipulate price has been met by the discovery and development of rare earths elsewhere. Therefore, provided that we watch these matters carefully, competition can usually weaken the monopolies. I am not saying that it is a Chinese aim to monopolise these resources, but in the case of rare earths that was a danger.

Government of France: Meetings

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 12th June 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

Not in the time allowed, no. There is a perfectly sensible proposition that, although the growth of public expenditure has been restrained—in some areas, not actually cut at all—this is a necessary part of getting a balanced, suitably relaxed monetary policy in as far as it can be relaxed, paving the way for further expenditure on infrastructure, of which some has been authorised. One hopes that in future there will be more. This is the rebalancing of the economy that all sensible people are aiming for.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

The Minister will recall with a certain amount of embarrassment that we on this side of the House welcomed candidate Hollande to London during his election campaign.

Going back to defence co-operation, the Minister well knows that we and France are the serious players in defence within the European Union. We both face economic difficulties. Has there been any signal yet from the new French Government that they wish not only to continue our substantial defence co-operation but even to enhance it?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

On the second point, there has been a signal that they wish to enhance co-operation in a number of areas. On the question of welcoming opposition candidates to London, my right honourable friend is not physically in a position to be able to meet every opposition candidate. Other leaders such as Chancellor Merkel and Mr Monti in Italy did not meet Monsieur Hollande before he became President, but that was not taken as a snub or an offence; it was a perfectly normal procedure. Now they have met and have got on very well.

Syria

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Monday 11th June 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

My right honourable friend made a comparison with the horrors in Bosnia at the end of the previous century, when militias claiming to be acting in the name of one side or another may or may not have been condoned or even have been instructed by the authorities. To answer my noble friend’s question, that comparison reflects on the assessment that we have to make of the present situation. It is hard to tell how much these murderous attacks—village against village, region against region—are, at the very lowest level, simply the settling of old scores or, at a higher level, people who are inspired by one side or another to think that they can put a label on themselves and go and murder everyone in sight. Perhaps, at the highest level of all, they are actively receiving orders and encouragement from the Syrian regime. Those are all possible, and there is evidence that at all levels there are those sorts of motivations. However, you cannot distinguish and draw lines in all these cases; you cannot say that all these horrors and the revolting, outrageous and evil killing of children are ordered from the centre. If they were, that would reinforce everything that we fear about the nature of the regime, but I do not think that that is the case in every instance; there are probably other evil motives at work as well.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, at a time of the cooling of the right to protect and humanitarian intervention, I was puzzled by one word in the Statement. It was the word “compelling” in this passage:

“we will argue for a new and robust UN Security Council resolution aimed at compelling the regime”.

Given the Russian and Chinese position, surely there is no prospect of such a resolution. If these are not just empty words, that could mean only military intervention outside the UN framework, which is most unlikely to happen. Who would lead that? There was talk this morning about drones targeting or showing the way for the targeting of opposition areas. Do the Government know who provides and controls these drones?

Amid all the horror, there is increasing concern about the way in which a likely Sunni-dominated successor regime would deal with minorities. Do the Government share this concern, especially with regard to, as the right reverend Prelate has mentioned, the Christian minority within Syria and the many refugees from Iraq who are there? If so, what are the Government doing to ensure that as far as possible there will not be a regime that persecutes minorities, as other Sunni-led regimes in the area do?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

On the last point, I addressed that very point when it was raised by the right reverend Prelate. The position of the Christian minorities is of great concern. To answer the question about what the Government are doing, as I said earlier, my right honourable friend, officials and representatives of HMG have constantly urged the Syrian opposition to extend tolerance and a full place to ethnic and religious minorities, and that embraces Christian minorities. That is what we are doing.

As to the word “compelling”, the noble Lord is very skilled and active in these areas, but I think he is slightly misreading its meaning. I go back to my earlier point that with the full co-operation of the Russians and the Chinese—if we could get it, which at present does not look very promising, but great efforts are being made—there would be a compelling and effective stranglehold. It is possible to switch off a society and to close down a regime altogether and make further governance impossible by cutting off basic utilities, power and all ingoing and outgoing supplies, but that is impossible as long as these two great nations, Russia and China, and a few others, are carrying on with trade and supplying equipment and arms. It is not realistic to imagine that without Russia and China we would resort to arms. That is pointless. It is a dead end. Russian and Chinese co-operation are essential for the stranglehold to work, and that has got to be the path of compulsion that we go to before we come to even grimmer possibilities. However, as my right honourable friend repeated, all options are on the table. There are steps ahead that we can take and which we will take, and we will work night and day to hold dialogue with Moscow and Beijing because they have a vital role in this process.

I cannot comment on drones. I will not comment on intelligence aspects, but if I have any more knowledge, I will gladly write to the noble Lord; at the moment, I have none.

European Union (Approval of Treaty Amendment Decision) Bill [HL]

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Wednesday 23rd May 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, because of an administrative error my name was not included on the list. So please add my name to the end of the list.

I disagree with the noble Lord, Lord Risby, in respect of referenda. Under the 2011 Act, even the smallest incremental change as regards moving power to Brussels will lead to a referendum—a referendum in which perhaps Mr Murdoch will have far more influence than ordinary British citizens. However, no referendum is proposed on far weightier constitutional change, such as that relating to the future of this House. I hope that the noble Lord will comment privately at some stage on the apparent contradiction in the Government’s position on those two matters.

Clearly any debate on Europe—however inconsequential or irrelevant, as the noble Lord, Lord Lawson, said—goes well beyond the confines of the Bill itself. We have had many historical analogies. We have heard from two former Chancellors, who sounded like elderly gentlemen sitting in deckchairs debating how things would have been so much better if people had listened to them. I remember the debate, for example, on the common or single currency. Things would have been so different had the common currency been accepted in the 1990s. However, the voices that were raised at that time were ignored, in part because of our lack of influence and the fact that we had marginalised ourselves.

It is also true, for those who are Europeans, that we should concede that a large part of the argument and the logic for the euro was politically driven; that it is extraordinarily difficult to have a single currency given the existence of so many economies operating at different levels; and that there is an inexorable move from that to political and fiscal union which one cannot ignore. Equally, I would hope that the opponents of Europe—the opponents generally—would concede that the European Union still has an enormous magnetism for those who are outside it, on its periphery. Perhaps they should ask themselves why that is so. Croatia is to join the European Union, and it will be followed by a number of the other Balkan countries. That is more likely than not to increase stability both within our own neighbourhood and within the Balkans. Other countries will want to evolve different forms of relationship with the European Union, despite its current difficulties. Those difficulties exist now but the period following the euro’s formation was one of relative prosperity when the euro was seen to be a success. Alas it has not been able to weather the economic storms—which are not, in fact, confined to Europe.

The Bill itself is of relatively minor consequence. Its parliamentary passage is therefore, pace the chairman of the European Scrutiny Committee in another place, likely to be speedy and non-controversial. We, in common with the 26 other EU countries, will thereby be able to ratify it so that it can come into effect, one hopes, at the beginning of next year. The message is that this is a formal change imposing no liability on the UK, although questions were raised about whether the result of the predecessors of this mechanism may indeed provide such a liability.

It is worth examining the Bill briefly in terms of its genesis and context. The European Union Act 2011 was, in fact, in part a genuflection to the anti-European pressures on the Conservative Back Benches. I have made my point about the referendum. Technically, there is no liability accruing to the UK. However, in view of the spirit of solidarity, surely it is important—because of the relevance of the health of the eurozone to us—to seek to make contributions as and when necessary in that same spirit.

An observer from Mars reading the Bill would be wholly unaware of the multifaceted crisis affecting not only Europe but the West generally. Perhaps one of the major criticisms of the Queen’s Speech was just how parochial it was. There was no mention of NATO or the Commonwealth, so beloved of the government Front Bench, save in the context of succession to the Throne and Jubilee visits. The truth is that notwithstanding this little Bill, there is a long-term crisis in Europe—the greatest since the Second World War. Even the Sunday Times, part of the Murdoch empire, wrote last Sunday about the need for federalism. We therefore have to ask ourselves whether we have now come to a 1957 moment when the country must choose.

I recall, when I was a junior diplomat shortly after that time, how desperately Britain tried to repair its failure to sign up to the Treaty of Rome. There was the cul-de-sac of EFTA; there was the wish to look for every possible means of joining with the six, using the mechanism of the Western European Union; and so on, until we were faced ultimately with the only logic—that it made sense for us to become full partners with the original countries.

There is in Europe today a social crisis—a crisis of unemployment, particularly of the young, leading to social unrest and migration from south to north, and possibly increasing levels of organised crime and terrorist networks. Politically, one sees the rise of nationalism, the lack of respect for the political class, the toppling of Governments and action of any sort against those in power—as happened even over the weekend in the Italian local elections. Clearly there is a vast challenge, and there are choices. No one seriously claims that the Queen’s Speech or this little Bill in any way recognises or rises to the challenge. The Bill tells us a little about the priorities of the Government—the Queen’s Speech even more. The Bill is not irrelevant, although it may be somewhat inconsequential. However, it perhaps gives the misleading impression that we can isolate ourselves from the troubles on the continent. We cannot. We must find bilateral and other means of assisting whenever we can.

There is no evidence that the Government, or indeed the population of this country, recognise the scale of the challenge. The foundations of Europe are being shaken and we need to confront that now. The speech of the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, was on that theme. We need to confront these vast challenges—this, perhaps, 1957 moment—yes, in a spirit of historical understanding; yes, in a spirit of sensitivity to the problems of our fellow citizens of Europe in Greece; and yes, also with a readiness to look radically at solutions which we must ultimately face.

Maldives

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Thursday 22nd March 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

We do not recognise this as a coup, although obviously there has been a change. Mr Nasheed is known to many people and greatly admired. We still need to establish the full circumstances of what occurred and we hope that the commission of inquiry will do that. Yes, the pressure is on: the Commonwealth, through Don McKinnon and others, is pressing very hard that there should be early elections and that it should be established who the legitimate Government of the Maldives are. We can then proceed calmly to repair the damage and see that the situation is restored so that the Maldives, as my noble friend has said, remains the paradise and attractive tourist area that it has always been and continues to be, because at the moment we do not judge that there is any danger in the tourist areas.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, is it not encouraging that the Commonwealth, true to its proper role, is playing such a positive and key part—just as, for example, Chief Emeka Anyaoku did as Commonwealth Secretary-General over South Africa? Is it not therefore disappointing that the Perth CHOGM failed to reach agreement on an enhanced role for both the secretary-general and the secretariat as a whole? Is there any positive progress regarding the role of the secretariat and the secretary-general, or might it emerge over the coming year?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

Yes, but the position is not quite as the noble Lord described it. They did not fail at the Heads of Government meeting to reach agreement; in fact, they agreed on a whole range of reinforcement of the upholding of standards in the Commonwealth by the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group and the new mandate for the secretary-general. The action in the Maldives is a welcome demonstration of what I hope is a much more active role to come. A whole range of other proposals put forward by the Eminent Persons Group is being discussed. The proposals have not been shelved. They are to be discussed by a ministerial task force and analysed further when Commonwealth Foreign Ministers meet in the autumn to take them forward. My hope is that a great many of them will be implemented. Some remain difficult, I fully agree, but generally, there is a huge surge in commitment throughout the Commonwealth to be a body that truly upholds its standards of democracy, human rights, good governance and the rule of law.

Middle East

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Friday 16th March 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, I welcome this long-awaited debate and congratulate the Minister as usual on his tour d’horizon. My only concern is the short time for the debate, which meant that even the Minister could mention only Israel/Palestine and the Iranian crisis at the very end of his speech.

In the Middle East, all things are connected; all things are distinct. As democrats, we must and should support the Arab awakening which affects the whole of the Arab world, but it is perhaps only the monarchies that appear to survive well at the moment. I heard what the Minister said about the key countries involved. In regard to some, there was, with respect, a touch of Pangloss in what he said. I agree that Tunisia is the pioneer and model of transition, but Egypt is far more problematic. The Minister might perhaps say whether it is his judgment that the Muslim Brotherhood will continue to steer a moderate path. Will the Salafists gain influence? Can the expectations of the great mass of young people be satisfied in Egypt? Most difficult of all is Libya, where there now is chaos. The militias seem to control much of the country and there is a real danger of Cyrenaica separating from Tripolitania.

It is in Syria, of course, that there is the most serious of problems. The real problem is this: can one envisage a more reasonable, moderate, safe and bloodless transition from this time on? Surely not, because the Assad regime, having watched what has happened in Libya, realised that its own future is at stake. It is fighting for survival, knowing what will happen to it if it loses. Ultimately, will the Assad regime, which observers now conclude is doomed, continue to inflict yet further bloodshed on its people? As it appears that there is obviously and rightly no prospect of western military intervention, what are the prospects of some form of regional intervention? What are the limits of what the West can do to help? Where do we draw the lines in terms of medical and non-lethal equipment? I wholly concur with the Minister that the caution of the West is surely justified.

Turning quickly to Israel/Palestine: it is surely a very bleak picture. If I were to ask the Minister to spell out where the signs of hope are, he could probably tell me only to look at certain of the economic and security developments on the West Bank. The rest is gloom. Premier Netanyahu knows that, whatever isolation there is for Israel and whatever defeats there are at the UN, he can rely on the US Congress for unqualified support. Certainly, there is no possibility of movement before the presidential election and there can only be movement at the point where the US decides to engage. The hopes raised by the Cairo speech of President Obama and by Premier Netanyahu’s Bar-Ilan University speech have become a part of history. Does the Minister see any signs of hope at all?

I shall end by dealing with Iran, which is clearly the most difficult problem on the Israeli agenda and the great headache for US policy makers. I very much understand the Israeli concern about a second Holocaust from the Holocaust denier Ahmadinejad. However, there remains, in relation to the nuclear threat, the question of capability— even if it stops at the threshold—and the question of intention. I hope that President Obama has made it clear to Premier Netanyahu that the red lines of the US and its allies do not necessarily coincide with those of Israel. It is clearly a formidably difficult problem to destroy the installations. It rests on the agreement of the US; it relies on overflying and refuelling; there must be very accurate intelligence and there must be precision bombing. Iran has the recipe and perhaps such a strike could lead only to a delay of two years or so.

What are the malign effects of Iran gaining such a capability? Clearly, there would be a major shift in the power balance in the region, a major blow to US and western influence and a great effect on nuclear proliferation in the region. Iran might be emboldened to commit further acts of subversion and there would be an increased threat to Israel. It may well be that its proxy, Hezbollah, already can reach most, if not all, of Israel with its weaponry.

What would be the effect of such an attack on nuclear installations? It would further convince Iran that it needs a nuclear capability; it would destroy the Sunni front; there would be a vast increase in the oil price—there is already an Iran premium on the price of Brent crude—it would rally the Iranian population and it possibly would stifle out the green movement for some time.

For Israel, it would perhaps be rather like Samson pulling down the pillars of the Temple upon itself. All evidence suggests that Iran is moving inexorably to a military nuclear capability, even if it were to stop at the threshold. The question, therefore, is surely this: what if? I hope that western planners are now posing this what-if question as Iran, as is likely, obtains such a capability? We should not neglect the carrots but be ready to make clear the sticks that would be involved. Containment is difficult and possibly ineffective. A nuclear-armed Iran is an awful prospect, but there is a strong case that a military strike on the nuclear installations in Iran would be even worse with even more unpredictable consequences, both in the region and globally.

Death Penalty

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Wednesday 7th March 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Avebury]

My Lords—

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords—

[Baroness Stern]

My Lords—

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, the courtesy of the House is that no more than one Peer is on their feet at the same time, so perhaps I may be that Peer for the moment. We have just heard from the Labour Benches; might we hear from the Liberal Democrat Benches, and then perhaps from the Cross Benches, before returning to Labour?

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords—

[Noble Lords]

Sit down!

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

I suspect that the noble Baroness is referring particularly to some of the horrific stories from Iran. We regard those with horror, and we continue to press extremely hard, in line with our general desire to see the abolition of the death penalty worldwide, where those kinds of particularly repulsive and ugly penalties are inflicted.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, following the position on the US, when we make our welcome representations to the Chinese authorities, do they in fact say, “Well, how do you deal with the US?”. Does it in fact blunt our own representations that the US does have the death penalty in so many states?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

I cannot answer precisely having not been personally involved in all these bilateral negotiations, but my impression is that it does not. My impression is that countries either say, “We listen politely to your views”—as, for instance, in the case of Japan—or, “We recognise that we must move forward”, in some other cases; or some of them give us a rather dustier answer and say, “These are internal matters for us. Please go away”.