Syria

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Monday 11th June 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

My right honourable friend made a comparison with the horrors in Bosnia at the end of the previous century, when militias claiming to be acting in the name of one side or another may or may not have been condoned or even have been instructed by the authorities. To answer my noble friend’s question, that comparison reflects on the assessment that we have to make of the present situation. It is hard to tell how much these murderous attacks—village against village, region against region—are, at the very lowest level, simply the settling of old scores or, at a higher level, people who are inspired by one side or another to think that they can put a label on themselves and go and murder everyone in sight. Perhaps, at the highest level of all, they are actively receiving orders and encouragement from the Syrian regime. Those are all possible, and there is evidence that at all levels there are those sorts of motivations. However, you cannot distinguish and draw lines in all these cases; you cannot say that all these horrors and the revolting, outrageous and evil killing of children are ordered from the centre. If they were, that would reinforce everything that we fear about the nature of the regime, but I do not think that that is the case in every instance; there are probably other evil motives at work as well.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, at a time of the cooling of the right to protect and humanitarian intervention, I was puzzled by one word in the Statement. It was the word “compelling” in this passage:

“we will argue for a new and robust UN Security Council resolution aimed at compelling the regime”.

Given the Russian and Chinese position, surely there is no prospect of such a resolution. If these are not just empty words, that could mean only military intervention outside the UN framework, which is most unlikely to happen. Who would lead that? There was talk this morning about drones targeting or showing the way for the targeting of opposition areas. Do the Government know who provides and controls these drones?

Amid all the horror, there is increasing concern about the way in which a likely Sunni-dominated successor regime would deal with minorities. Do the Government share this concern, especially with regard to, as the right reverend Prelate has mentioned, the Christian minority within Syria and the many refugees from Iraq who are there? If so, what are the Government doing to ensure that as far as possible there will not be a regime that persecutes minorities, as other Sunni-led regimes in the area do?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

On the last point, I addressed that very point when it was raised by the right reverend Prelate. The position of the Christian minorities is of great concern. To answer the question about what the Government are doing, as I said earlier, my right honourable friend, officials and representatives of HMG have constantly urged the Syrian opposition to extend tolerance and a full place to ethnic and religious minorities, and that embraces Christian minorities. That is what we are doing.

As to the word “compelling”, the noble Lord is very skilled and active in these areas, but I think he is slightly misreading its meaning. I go back to my earlier point that with the full co-operation of the Russians and the Chinese—if we could get it, which at present does not look very promising, but great efforts are being made—there would be a compelling and effective stranglehold. It is possible to switch off a society and to close down a regime altogether and make further governance impossible by cutting off basic utilities, power and all ingoing and outgoing supplies, but that is impossible as long as these two great nations, Russia and China, and a few others, are carrying on with trade and supplying equipment and arms. It is not realistic to imagine that without Russia and China we would resort to arms. That is pointless. It is a dead end. Russian and Chinese co-operation are essential for the stranglehold to work, and that has got to be the path of compulsion that we go to before we come to even grimmer possibilities. However, as my right honourable friend repeated, all options are on the table. There are steps ahead that we can take and which we will take, and we will work night and day to hold dialogue with Moscow and Beijing because they have a vital role in this process.

I cannot comment on drones. I will not comment on intelligence aspects, but if I have any more knowledge, I will gladly write to the noble Lord; at the moment, I have none.

European Union (Approval of Treaty Amendment Decision) Bill [HL]

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Wednesday 23rd May 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, because of an administrative error my name was not included on the list. So please add my name to the end of the list.

I disagree with the noble Lord, Lord Risby, in respect of referenda. Under the 2011 Act, even the smallest incremental change as regards moving power to Brussels will lead to a referendum—a referendum in which perhaps Mr Murdoch will have far more influence than ordinary British citizens. However, no referendum is proposed on far weightier constitutional change, such as that relating to the future of this House. I hope that the noble Lord will comment privately at some stage on the apparent contradiction in the Government’s position on those two matters.

Clearly any debate on Europe—however inconsequential or irrelevant, as the noble Lord, Lord Lawson, said—goes well beyond the confines of the Bill itself. We have had many historical analogies. We have heard from two former Chancellors, who sounded like elderly gentlemen sitting in deckchairs debating how things would have been so much better if people had listened to them. I remember the debate, for example, on the common or single currency. Things would have been so different had the common currency been accepted in the 1990s. However, the voices that were raised at that time were ignored, in part because of our lack of influence and the fact that we had marginalised ourselves.

It is also true, for those who are Europeans, that we should concede that a large part of the argument and the logic for the euro was politically driven; that it is extraordinarily difficult to have a single currency given the existence of so many economies operating at different levels; and that there is an inexorable move from that to political and fiscal union which one cannot ignore. Equally, I would hope that the opponents of Europe—the opponents generally—would concede that the European Union still has an enormous magnetism for those who are outside it, on its periphery. Perhaps they should ask themselves why that is so. Croatia is to join the European Union, and it will be followed by a number of the other Balkan countries. That is more likely than not to increase stability both within our own neighbourhood and within the Balkans. Other countries will want to evolve different forms of relationship with the European Union, despite its current difficulties. Those difficulties exist now but the period following the euro’s formation was one of relative prosperity when the euro was seen to be a success. Alas it has not been able to weather the economic storms—which are not, in fact, confined to Europe.

The Bill itself is of relatively minor consequence. Its parliamentary passage is therefore, pace the chairman of the European Scrutiny Committee in another place, likely to be speedy and non-controversial. We, in common with the 26 other EU countries, will thereby be able to ratify it so that it can come into effect, one hopes, at the beginning of next year. The message is that this is a formal change imposing no liability on the UK, although questions were raised about whether the result of the predecessors of this mechanism may indeed provide such a liability.

It is worth examining the Bill briefly in terms of its genesis and context. The European Union Act 2011 was, in fact, in part a genuflection to the anti-European pressures on the Conservative Back Benches. I have made my point about the referendum. Technically, there is no liability accruing to the UK. However, in view of the spirit of solidarity, surely it is important—because of the relevance of the health of the eurozone to us—to seek to make contributions as and when necessary in that same spirit.

An observer from Mars reading the Bill would be wholly unaware of the multifaceted crisis affecting not only Europe but the West generally. Perhaps one of the major criticisms of the Queen’s Speech was just how parochial it was. There was no mention of NATO or the Commonwealth, so beloved of the government Front Bench, save in the context of succession to the Throne and Jubilee visits. The truth is that notwithstanding this little Bill, there is a long-term crisis in Europe—the greatest since the Second World War. Even the Sunday Times, part of the Murdoch empire, wrote last Sunday about the need for federalism. We therefore have to ask ourselves whether we have now come to a 1957 moment when the country must choose.

I recall, when I was a junior diplomat shortly after that time, how desperately Britain tried to repair its failure to sign up to the Treaty of Rome. There was the cul-de-sac of EFTA; there was the wish to look for every possible means of joining with the six, using the mechanism of the Western European Union; and so on, until we were faced ultimately with the only logic—that it made sense for us to become full partners with the original countries.

There is in Europe today a social crisis—a crisis of unemployment, particularly of the young, leading to social unrest and migration from south to north, and possibly increasing levels of organised crime and terrorist networks. Politically, one sees the rise of nationalism, the lack of respect for the political class, the toppling of Governments and action of any sort against those in power—as happened even over the weekend in the Italian local elections. Clearly there is a vast challenge, and there are choices. No one seriously claims that the Queen’s Speech or this little Bill in any way recognises or rises to the challenge. The Bill tells us a little about the priorities of the Government—the Queen’s Speech even more. The Bill is not irrelevant, although it may be somewhat inconsequential. However, it perhaps gives the misleading impression that we can isolate ourselves from the troubles on the continent. We cannot. We must find bilateral and other means of assisting whenever we can.

There is no evidence that the Government, or indeed the population of this country, recognise the scale of the challenge. The foundations of Europe are being shaken and we need to confront that now. The speech of the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, was on that theme. We need to confront these vast challenges—this, perhaps, 1957 moment—yes, in a spirit of historical understanding; yes, in a spirit of sensitivity to the problems of our fellow citizens of Europe in Greece; and yes, also with a readiness to look radically at solutions which we must ultimately face.

Maldives

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Thursday 22nd March 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

We do not recognise this as a coup, although obviously there has been a change. Mr Nasheed is known to many people and greatly admired. We still need to establish the full circumstances of what occurred and we hope that the commission of inquiry will do that. Yes, the pressure is on: the Commonwealth, through Don McKinnon and others, is pressing very hard that there should be early elections and that it should be established who the legitimate Government of the Maldives are. We can then proceed calmly to repair the damage and see that the situation is restored so that the Maldives, as my noble friend has said, remains the paradise and attractive tourist area that it has always been and continues to be, because at the moment we do not judge that there is any danger in the tourist areas.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, is it not encouraging that the Commonwealth, true to its proper role, is playing such a positive and key part—just as, for example, Chief Emeka Anyaoku did as Commonwealth Secretary-General over South Africa? Is it not therefore disappointing that the Perth CHOGM failed to reach agreement on an enhanced role for both the secretary-general and the secretariat as a whole? Is there any positive progress regarding the role of the secretariat and the secretary-general, or might it emerge over the coming year?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

Yes, but the position is not quite as the noble Lord described it. They did not fail at the Heads of Government meeting to reach agreement; in fact, they agreed on a whole range of reinforcement of the upholding of standards in the Commonwealth by the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group and the new mandate for the secretary-general. The action in the Maldives is a welcome demonstration of what I hope is a much more active role to come. A whole range of other proposals put forward by the Eminent Persons Group is being discussed. The proposals have not been shelved. They are to be discussed by a ministerial task force and analysed further when Commonwealth Foreign Ministers meet in the autumn to take them forward. My hope is that a great many of them will be implemented. Some remain difficult, I fully agree, but generally, there is a huge surge in commitment throughout the Commonwealth to be a body that truly upholds its standards of democracy, human rights, good governance and the rule of law.

Middle East

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Friday 16th March 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, I welcome this long-awaited debate and congratulate the Minister as usual on his tour d’horizon. My only concern is the short time for the debate, which meant that even the Minister could mention only Israel/Palestine and the Iranian crisis at the very end of his speech.

In the Middle East, all things are connected; all things are distinct. As democrats, we must and should support the Arab awakening which affects the whole of the Arab world, but it is perhaps only the monarchies that appear to survive well at the moment. I heard what the Minister said about the key countries involved. In regard to some, there was, with respect, a touch of Pangloss in what he said. I agree that Tunisia is the pioneer and model of transition, but Egypt is far more problematic. The Minister might perhaps say whether it is his judgment that the Muslim Brotherhood will continue to steer a moderate path. Will the Salafists gain influence? Can the expectations of the great mass of young people be satisfied in Egypt? Most difficult of all is Libya, where there now is chaos. The militias seem to control much of the country and there is a real danger of Cyrenaica separating from Tripolitania.

It is in Syria, of course, that there is the most serious of problems. The real problem is this: can one envisage a more reasonable, moderate, safe and bloodless transition from this time on? Surely not, because the Assad regime, having watched what has happened in Libya, realised that its own future is at stake. It is fighting for survival, knowing what will happen to it if it loses. Ultimately, will the Assad regime, which observers now conclude is doomed, continue to inflict yet further bloodshed on its people? As it appears that there is obviously and rightly no prospect of western military intervention, what are the prospects of some form of regional intervention? What are the limits of what the West can do to help? Where do we draw the lines in terms of medical and non-lethal equipment? I wholly concur with the Minister that the caution of the West is surely justified.

Turning quickly to Israel/Palestine: it is surely a very bleak picture. If I were to ask the Minister to spell out where the signs of hope are, he could probably tell me only to look at certain of the economic and security developments on the West Bank. The rest is gloom. Premier Netanyahu knows that, whatever isolation there is for Israel and whatever defeats there are at the UN, he can rely on the US Congress for unqualified support. Certainly, there is no possibility of movement before the presidential election and there can only be movement at the point where the US decides to engage. The hopes raised by the Cairo speech of President Obama and by Premier Netanyahu’s Bar-Ilan University speech have become a part of history. Does the Minister see any signs of hope at all?

I shall end by dealing with Iran, which is clearly the most difficult problem on the Israeli agenda and the great headache for US policy makers. I very much understand the Israeli concern about a second Holocaust from the Holocaust denier Ahmadinejad. However, there remains, in relation to the nuclear threat, the question of capability— even if it stops at the threshold—and the question of intention. I hope that President Obama has made it clear to Premier Netanyahu that the red lines of the US and its allies do not necessarily coincide with those of Israel. It is clearly a formidably difficult problem to destroy the installations. It rests on the agreement of the US; it relies on overflying and refuelling; there must be very accurate intelligence and there must be precision bombing. Iran has the recipe and perhaps such a strike could lead only to a delay of two years or so.

What are the malign effects of Iran gaining such a capability? Clearly, there would be a major shift in the power balance in the region, a major blow to US and western influence and a great effect on nuclear proliferation in the region. Iran might be emboldened to commit further acts of subversion and there would be an increased threat to Israel. It may well be that its proxy, Hezbollah, already can reach most, if not all, of Israel with its weaponry.

What would be the effect of such an attack on nuclear installations? It would further convince Iran that it needs a nuclear capability; it would destroy the Sunni front; there would be a vast increase in the oil price—there is already an Iran premium on the price of Brent crude—it would rally the Iranian population and it possibly would stifle out the green movement for some time.

For Israel, it would perhaps be rather like Samson pulling down the pillars of the Temple upon itself. All evidence suggests that Iran is moving inexorably to a military nuclear capability, even if it were to stop at the threshold. The question, therefore, is surely this: what if? I hope that western planners are now posing this what-if question as Iran, as is likely, obtains such a capability? We should not neglect the carrots but be ready to make clear the sticks that would be involved. Containment is difficult and possibly ineffective. A nuclear-armed Iran is an awful prospect, but there is a strong case that a military strike on the nuclear installations in Iran would be even worse with even more unpredictable consequences, both in the region and globally.

Death Penalty

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Wednesday 7th March 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Avebury]

My Lords—

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords—

[Baroness Stern]

My Lords—

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, the courtesy of the House is that no more than one Peer is on their feet at the same time, so perhaps I may be that Peer for the moment. We have just heard from the Labour Benches; might we hear from the Liberal Democrat Benches, and then perhaps from the Cross Benches, before returning to Labour?

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords—

[Noble Lords]

Sit down!

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

I suspect that the noble Baroness is referring particularly to some of the horrific stories from Iran. We regard those with horror, and we continue to press extremely hard, in line with our general desire to see the abolition of the death penalty worldwide, where those kinds of particularly repulsive and ugly penalties are inflicted.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, following the position on the US, when we make our welcome representations to the Chinese authorities, do they in fact say, “Well, how do you deal with the US?”. Does it in fact blunt our own representations that the US does have the death penalty in so many states?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

I cannot answer precisely having not been personally involved in all these bilateral negotiations, but my impression is that it does not. My impression is that countries either say, “We listen politely to your views”—as, for instance, in the case of Japan—or, “We recognise that we must move forward”, in some other cases; or some of them give us a rather dustier answer and say, “These are internal matters for us. Please go away”.

Middle East: Quartet

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 28th February 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

We all share my noble friend’s disappointment at the slowness of progress in the Middle East peace process and the difficulties that are being encountered—as well as at the suspension of the talks in Amman, although they have only been suspended and not abandoned altogether. However, I think that she is a shade harsh in her general judgment. We pay tribute to the efforts of Mr Blair and others in improving the situation on the ground in occupied Palestine, but one must be realistic: the quartet alone cannot achieve the progress that we all want to see. Such progress can happen only if the will is there, but the will is not present on all the necessary sides in the peace process to make progress along the road map. If the will is not there, the quartet cannot achieve the impossible.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

Does the noble Lord agree that the quartet is divided—for example over Syria, given Russia’s view on it—and that it has been ineffective, save marginally at the lower infrastructure level; but that we cannot kill it because there is no alternative, and one day there may be a role for it?

Syria

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Monday 6th February 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

The noble Lord is absolutely right to cast his expert eye over the internal complexities of Syria and the uncertainties of the outcome of the immense turmoil that is gripping its society. He is right to say that although there is no question of military intervention, the outside world is putting pressure on Syria for the very good reason that an imploded Syria, or a Syria turning one way or another politically, or into a rogue state, would have major implications for the entire region and would affect us all. There is a responsibility to put on pressure, but no one at this stage is proposing military intervention, although some members of the Arab League have certainly talked about assisting opposition groups.

It is a very delicate scene. I wish I could stand here and predict exactly how things will unfold. The noble Lord is absolutely correct that among the many minorities is a very large Christian minority. The numbers vary. I have heard a figure of 250,000; the noble Lord mentioned 500,000. We are encouraging Syrian opposition groups to reach out, engage with minority communities and maintain a clear commitment to a peaceful and non-sectarian approach. They should reassure all Syrians that they are working towards a Syrian state that is democratic, inclusive and respectful of ethnic and religious minorities. That is the point that we have realised and are urging, but I repeat that anyone who says that they can predict exactly how this will turn out will not be believed because the uncertainties are very great. Syrian society could fragment into many pieces and its unity could be destroyed for many years to come.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

Does the Minister agree that Russia and China have put themselves on the wrong side of history by vetoing a very diluted UN Security Council resolution and that it must be very difficult for them now to retreat? I welcome the Minister’s six points on the way forward but these are, essentially, further diplomatic pressures at the United Nations and at the European Union and further potential sanctions. There is, however, great urgency in the situation. Delay surely means further carnage, particularly among the civilian population. What is the evidence of any intervention by Iran with military matériel or personnel to assist the Syrian regime? Where does its supply come from, or does it have sufficient stocks? The reality is that the rebels are massively outgunned. Will Turkey or the Arab League have on the agenda at their meeting this weekend the possibility of assisting in this disparity of weaponry? The Minister has said that a no-fly zone is not in the catalogue at the moment. May I express the hope that, if it is not in the catalogue at the moment, there is contingency planning in case the Syrians use their air power against the rebels?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

I am grateful to the noble Lord. Information about Iranian supplies of weaponry to the Syrian regime is difficult to pin down precisely. There are certainly fairly substantial reports of such a supply of weapons. He asks whether, on the side of the allies, Turkey, Qatar or even Saudi Arabia, although he did not mention that country, could supply weapons to the opposition groups. They have said publicly that they are considering such moves. This is, however, a matter that the Arab League will have to deliberate on very carefully and reach their decisions on as soon as possible. As the noble Lord says, there is not much time. That is the position and I fully take the point that, as every day goes by, with delay more people are dying. This is an horrific pattern and although it is very hard to see how it can be stopped we have to find the best possible ways of doing so.

Algeria

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Thursday 2nd February 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

Yes, we fully recognise the points that my noble friend has rightly made. I congratulate him on the very successful visit that he and some colleagues recently made to Algeria. This is a country that has emerged from a very dark period. It has some way to go in some crucial areas but it is, in resource terms, immensely rich. It has a determination to move back into the comity of nations in an effective way and I believe that we should work closely with it. I think that the frequent visits that Ministers from my department have paid reflect that reality.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, the trade and energy links are indeed important but so, too, are human rights. The noble Lord must be aware of a growing tide of Islamism creeping over Algeria. It is shown at two levels: one is in the closure of many places of entertainment and the second, more importantly, is in the closure of places of worship. I know that Alistair Burt at the Foreign Office and Commissioner Füle have made representations. Has there been any response to the British and EU representations in respect of human rights?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

There has. The noble Lord is right to raise questions of human rights, which are obviously our central concern. So far as concerns jihadism and more extreme versions of Islamism, while in the south of Algeria and to the south of Algeria there are continuing difficulties which need to be watched and addressed very carefully, in the north the situation is much better controlled. The general tendency which was feared a decade or so ago—of extreme jihadism taking over—has been checked and resisted. In fact, I think that Algeria is moving on from that phase.

As to the question of religious discrimination, there has been a constant exchange, and the noble Lord mentioned Mr Burt’s dialogue with Ministers. The laws that control where churches or other religious institutions can be built apply to all faiths—this is not just discrimination against Christians. We have discussed this very carefully with Ministers in Algiers. They have assured us that the laws are applied in a relatively light-handed way and that discrimination is not against one faith. It governs all building, including of mosques. Therefore, it is a matter that we are watching. I cannot promise that immediate results have been achieved but we are working at it.

Council of Europe

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Wednesday 1st February 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

The answer to my noble friend is yes on both points. The Council of Europe can have a major role in facilitating exchanges of the sort he described, and one priority of our chairmanship is to streamline and make more efficient the Council of Europe's work in the field of democratic local governance. Also, there can be real gains for local communities where those responsible for local services and the governance of towns and cities can exchange good practice and share knowledge and experience with their counterparts in other states, and that, too, we intend to encourage in our chairmanship.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, the European Union's Europe for Citizens programme concentrates mainly on town twinning, so we should avoid duplication in the Council of Europe, but the European Union programme also deals with communicating with citizens on the work being done by the European Union. Is not there a case during our presidency for informing the citizens of the wider Europe of the valuable work being done in many fields by the Council of Europe?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

Yes, I am sure there is. The noble Lord is quite right: the Council of Europe covers about 800 million people, which is wider than the European Union. Of course there can be a constructive interchange and the work of each body can be promoted by the other to their mutual benefit.

Christians in the Middle East

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Friday 9th December 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, I join in congratulating the most reverend Primate—feet on the ground, eyes looking upwards and outwards. I make three simple propositions. First, the Middle East is the birthplace of Christianity. Secondly, from New Testament times there have been diverse Christian communities throughout the Middle East. Thirdly, increasingly, there is intense pressure on those communities from a resurgent Islamic fundamentalism. I shall pose the question of how best we can respond.

Christianity of course began in the Middle East. Christ was born in Bethlehem of Judaea and spent all his short life, after an Egyptian exile, in Palestine. St Peter had his vision of the expanding new religion in Joppa near Tel Aviv. The Epistles illustrate that expansion. St Paul was converted on the road to Damascus. St Mark the Evangelist was martyred in Alexandria and there are indeed other Christian martyrs in Alexandria today. St Augustine and others worked in the Maghreb. With such a crowd of witnesses, it would be a bold assertion that Christianity is some alien insertion into the Middle East.

Many diverse Christian communities were formed throughout the Middle East. Roughly 10 per cent of Egyptians are Copts. Syria has a sizeable Christian minority of at least 10 per cent. Lebanon is the only Middle East country to have until recently a Christian minority, with a remarkable constitution drawing lines between the different communities. In Israel, a proportion of the Israeli Arabs are indeed Christian, and Israel is perhaps the only country in the region that has not only total freedom of religion but also freedom to convert to change one’s religion. In Bethlehem, there used to be a Christian minority, which is now massively decimated. In Jerusalem, too, once a Christian city or at least one with a Christian majority, there is now but a small portion. There has been a Christian presence in Iraq from the second century, and the liturgical language is Syriac, which is derived from Aramaic, the very language spoken by Christ. Throughout the Middle East, there are therefore large parts of the landscape that are, indeed, Christian.

Thirdly, there is a remarkable increase in pressure on those communities from resurgent fundamentalism, to the point of religious cleansing, as the noble Lord, Lord Patten, said so well. There is at least a risk of Christianity ultimately disappearing from parts of its biblical homeland. The decline is certainly, in part, due to persecution, low birth rates and emigration. Certainly in Egypt, Iran and Iraq, there have been examples of massacres and burning of churches. Alas, it is perhaps the old authoritarian regimes in Egypt and Syria, as well as Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, which provided the safest havens for Christians. Equally, all these countries in principle support the Universal Declaration of Human Rights of 1948, which enjoins not only freedom of religion but the freedom to change one’s religion. Apostates are persecuted throughout that region. In Iran, Pastor Nadarkhani has bravely refused to renounce his faith, which would save him from the death penalty for alleged apostasy. A decision is expected on his fate before Christmas. Then of course there is the Arab spring—or as the Americans are prone to call it now, the Arab thing, because of the uncertainty about its future. This brings new dangers of repression, actual and threatened, as Islamic parties in a swathe from Morocco through Tunisia unto Egypt gain the ascendancy. Of course, there are moderate elements. The Muslim Brotherhood will reach accommodations and can, as the Palestine parties have shown, become ever more tolerant. It is fair to say that in Morocco, for example, the king has appointed an Islamic leader who has said all the right things. But we wait to see the eventual result. Western dreams and Egyptian realities!

Syria, currently a relative haven for Christians, is likely to become much less so if the Assad regime is overthrown. So we are left with this dilemma. Of course, according to our principles, we encourage democracy, but some of the consequences are likely to be unwelcome. How do we then respond to these challenges? What are the principles on which we should act? I give only headlines, because of the severity of the time limit. I assert that we should defend human rights in general, and Christianity only as part of that, as this may be used against Christian minorities if it is seen that the West is supporting only them. There are many other groups—and I hesitate to use the word minorities, after what the right reverend Prelate said—which are suffering, such as the Baha’i in Iran. Perhaps the Christians will be made targets.

We should remind states of their international obligations, particularly in respect of the right to have one’s religion and the right to change it, and use the embarrassment factor. We should encourage Muslim leaders in this country and the Middle East to speak out boldly, as the Grand Mufti has done. We should also give a model of toleration in our own country. Although the recent Shia procession in Kabul was bombed by a suicide bomber, a similar procession in London was greeted by a certain curiosity. Just as many of the exiles who are now returning to Egypt and Libya experienced our own toleration as exiles in this country, so I hope that some of that will rub off on them as they assume positions of authority in their own countries.

Our aid policies should encourage human rights, democracy and the rule of law and we should of course use our international institutions. Briefly, the Council of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly has recently formed the so-called status of Partner for Democracy with Morocco and with the Palestine Authority in the lead. That status has a review provision of the human rights obligations assumed by those countries, which should be extended, but we should clearly recognise that the real battles will be fought and, I hope, won by domestic forces. There are great limits to external pressure. It is the new forces, particularly women and young people, who give us hope. They demand freedom for themselves and, I hope, for minorities such as Christians. If they are to succeed in their aspirations to modernise successfully, that can ensure that the revolutions will evolve and not be betrayed—and that new Presbyter will not be old priest writ large.