Gibraltar

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Thursday 10th October 2013 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

My noble friend makes an important point. There have been huge delays on the border, in relation to the crossing of both people and materials. There have been questions in relation to harassment at the border. At their height, some of the delays were unfortunately up to seven hours long. This is causing misery to both the Gibraltarians and to the Spanish people who travel between the two regularly, especially Spanish workers.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

The Spanish Government are linking with the Argentine Government to bring joint pressure on us in international fora. Our friends in Gibraltar are members of Commonwealth institutions. To what extent are we ready to use the Commonwealth as a means of countering that international pressure?

[Baroness Warsi]

There will always be politics in international fora, but it is the responsibility of the Government to respond to the reality on the ground. There have been a number of discussions at the highest levels between the Prime Minister and the Prime Minister of Spain and the Deputy Prime Minister and the Deputy Prime Minister of Spain, and discussions with the President of the European Commission. We feel at the moment that discussions are ongoing. We also have the Royal Navy Gibraltar Squadron, which makes sure that those waters are properly protected.

Syria: Humanitarian Assistance

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 8th October 2013 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

I completely take the point that my noble friend makes but we understand that the biggest percentage of refugees are currently in Lebanon. It was for that reason that at the UN General Assembly meeting, the P5 Foreign Ministers created a new international support group for Lebanon. It may be that we will continue to monitor the refugee situation and to respond accordingly. However, I assure noble Lords that we are incredibly aware and responsive to the pressures that have been placed on the region because of this crisis.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

On UNHCR figures, there is an alarming underfunding crisis. For example, 53% of the US$1 billion in the 2013 regional response plan for Syrian refugees remains unfunded and 72% of the US$249 million in the 2013 IDP response budget remains underfunded. Clearly, the British Government have responded well. Other countries have not. What are we doing to urge the laggards to respond adequately to the situation, including naming and shaming?

[Baroness Warsi]

The noble Lord makes an incredibly important point. For that reason, not only have we given ourselves but we have encouraged other countries to give and to pledge, and then to make good their pledges. That is why during the G20 at St Petersburg, my right honourable friend the Prime Minister started this campaign. It was led across the world by our embassies. At the UN General Assembly in New York, a further US$1 billion was pledged. However, the appeal is still short. It is an ever increasing appeal because the situation continues to get worse. I assure noble Lords that we are doing our fair share in giving and that we are punching above our weight in asking others to give.

Lebanon

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 23rd July 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, the European Union has just decided to designate the military wing of Hezbollah a terrorist organisation. Will the Minister say how meaningful the distinction is between the military wing and the political wing of Hezbollah? What effect will it have on any representations we would wish to make to Hezbollah?

[Baroness Warsi]

My Lords, we do not see why the EU designation should impact on Lebanese political stability or on EU relationships with the Lebanese Government. We do not think that it will affect the EU and the UK relationship, but we feel that it sends out a clear message that the EU is united against terrorism and that there are consequences for terrorist attacks carried out on European soil. It is important, as I am sure noble Lords are aware, that the designation is of the military wing of Hezbollah. We recognise that Hezbollah’s political representatives will remain a legitimate part of Lebanon’s political scene.

Iran

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Wednesday 10th July 2013 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

I understand my noble friend’s points, but the one thing that I and most of us who have been involved in foreign policy realise is that the situation is never black or white. There are always many grey areas, as is the case here. The new president has made some positive remarks, but it is important that they are translated into action. However, I can assure my noble friend and other noble Lords that we have contact with the Iranians. For example, last year at the Heart of Asia conference, as part of the discussions on Afghanistan, the Foreign Secretary met Foreign Minister Salehi in the margins of the meeting. There are therefore opportunities for discussions to take place, even at the highest level. However, in terms of restarting diplomatic relations and having an embassy—which, let us not forget, was ransacked in 2011 and where our officials and staff came under attack—it is important that we do so cautiously.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords—

[Lord Davies of Stamford]

My Lords—

Syria and the Middle East

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Monday 1st July 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, the subject today is the situation in Syria and the Middle East. Naturally, the focus has been on the tragedy of Syria but in the Middle East itself the foundations are shaking and all is connected.

There was apparent stability five years ago, with long-existing autocratic regimes in Egypt, Syria, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen. Today, only the monarchies are relatively untouched: Morocco is certainly untouched; Jordan is still relatively stable, although I refer to what the noble Baroness said about the very generous reception of the refugees by the King and people of Jordan. However, the long-suffering Palestinians in the camps in Syria will find the door closed in Jordan because of the fear of destabilising further the kingdom.

Of course, in most countries the human rights of minorities—particularly but not only Christians—are more threatened than before. Our view of recent events in the Middle East has changed radically. Today it is less fashionable to refer to the Arab spring. The mood of euphoria in Tahrir Square a year or two ago has been replaced by the demonstrations of yesterday against President Morsi, the new pharaoh. His supporters can counter only that he won the election, as if winning elections is sufficient for any democracy. The dilemma, as one experienced analyst wrote of Egypt, is that:

“With the Muslim Brotherhood the transition will be difficult: without them it will be impossible”.

The term “Arab uprising” is now more frequently used—although I understand that the US State Department is known to refer to “the Arab thing”—but all these terms suggest some uniformity in the several countries, when, as we know, one cannot attach one label to so many different national events. However, constant themes are the search for dignity, the loss of deference and the readiness to challenge authority. We refer to the current phase as transition but are puzzled as to what. This search for dignity, this loss of deference, refers not only to the Middle East but to adjoining countries such as Turkey and even, as we have seen, to Brazil.

Honest horizon-scanners should recognise that they cannot see beyond the first curve and that they failed to see the turbulence rising prior to 2008. Yes, there were fine analyses of the problems in the Arab world, such as the search for modernity; for example, successive UNDP reports on human development in the Arab world in the mid-2000s. However, the forecasters did not see the speed of events, just as they failed to see the Iranian revolution prior to 1979. This suggests that our policy planners should proceed in a spirit of humility and that we should have a certain scepticism about the likely scene in the Middle East in, say, five years’ time.

Middle East borders have become more fluid. I enjoyed the article by the noble Lord, Lord Williams of Baglan, in a recent World Today about the fluidity of those borders, which are perhaps even more artificial and certainly more recent than the borders in Africa after the Berlin Conference. But are we creating a new Turkish sphere of influence in the region? We think of the position of the Kurds, dealt a bad hand by history and now with a new dynamic not only from the Kurdistan regional government in Erbil in northern Iraq but from Turkey’s opening to the PKK. Perhaps this will ultimately be an attempt to recreate the old Ottoman Empire. Even in the previously stable Syria there is talk about an ultimate split with the Alawites perhaps retreating to their former, short-lived, post-First World War entity.

There is a danger also that conflagration may spread over national boundaries and engulf the whole region. The obvious example is Hezbollah’s incursion into Syria as a potential game-changer there and its impact on an already unstable Lebanon. There are skirmishes around the Golan Heights. President Assad may ultimately, in desperation, try to involve Israel in the conflict, but Israel has, so far, shown a masterly restraint.

It was the received wisdom up to, let us say, five years ago that Israel and Palestine were at the heart of all conflicts in the Middle East, but that dispute is surely hardly related to the current turmoil. No Israeli flags were burnt in Tahrir Square. Perhaps this is a good time, therefore, to attempt to restart negotiations. Secretary Kerry has been extremely active in his pre-negotiation phase and there are rumours of an Israeli settlement freeze—again—and the freeing of some Palestinian prisoners, but Palestinian divisions remain, as do the giant obstacles of refugees and, above all, Jerusalem. It would be interesting to have the judgment of the Government on the current prospects for the peace process.

I have said that forward planning is generally difficult; it is nowhere more so than in Syria. Commentators refer to a sea change having taken place over the past year. A year ago, the rebels were largely nationalists, secular and DIY. They have been replaced by more professional and more hard-line force, including international jihadists—hence the problem of arms supply, which so many noble Lords have touched on. It is rumoured that the US may begin to supply lethal arms within a month. The Prime Minister and the Foreign Secretary give the impression of wanting to follow and are edging in that direction.

The blunt truth is surely this: the readiness to intervene for humanitarian purposes is cyclical. It arose after the Chicago speech of Prime Minister Blair in 1999 and followed through with some successes in Sierra Leone and Libya, but then we had Afghanistan and Iraq and, as a result, there is no appetite now in our Parliament or in the country for such intervention. I concede, however, that the mood could change if there were a major use of chemical weapons by the regime. If we arm the rebels, we will do so by proxy and, of course, it is most unlikely that arms supply would necessarily shorten the conflict, as the Russians and Iranians would possibly only step up their own supply in response.

Amid the swirling uncertainties, what is the appropriate response of the UK and the West, with paralysis at the UN Security Council and a relative stalemate on the battlefield? The starting point is surely recognition that we have a limited influence on events. No longer can we intervene and redraw boundaries as we did under the Sykes-Picot accord. It is, I concede, hardly a moral stand to stand on the sidelines with one’s arms folded, but we must have a more cautious agenda and search for ways where we can positively help at the margins.

It is of course the humanitarian crisis which is of most immediate concern. Jordan, as has been said, is in danger of being overwhelmed by refugees. My understanding is that the UK Government have responded most impressively. It would be helpful to have an update on the extent to which other countries have failed to live up to the obligations which they undertook at Kuwait and afterwards. In the short term, the refugee crisis is likely to worsen, as the government forces appear to have a new momentum after Qusair.

Consistent with our values, we must help in democracy-building and in the protection of minorities—Christians are clearly the major losers in this conflict. Finally, at the political end, we should seek to mediate in a region where a spirit of “winner takes all” prevails; it is an existential threat for President Assad. We must recognise the interest of, and work with, both Russia and Iran, and reject the French attempt to exclude Iran from Geneva II. The latest news from Geneva is disappointing in the extreme, as Assad perhaps seeks to improve his negotiating position on the battlefield. I accept that extreme dilemmas face us in responding. I have an awful feeling that the situation will get worse before it gets better; that the Syria that emerges will, even if it is united, be more unstable; and, overall, that the Middle East will pose a greater risk to ourselves and to the interests of the West.

Morocco

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Thursday 27th June 2013 Grand Committee

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, my noble friend and I are both members of the Friendship Group with Morocco in our Parliament and therefore I warmly congratulate him on his initiative and, indeed, on his impeccable timing on the 800th anniversary of our diplomatic relations. I take the opportunity also to salute the excellent work here by Her Excellency the Ambassador of the Kingdom of Morocco, Her Highness Princess Lalla of Joumala Alaoui.

Like my noble friend and the noble Lords, Lord Sheikh and Lord Sharman, I shall refer to some of the key elements of our bilateral relationship, particularly in relation to the agriculture side. I invite the Minister to comment on the extent to which Moroccan agricultural exports to the UK and the European Union are constrained by the protectionism within the common agricultural policy. I shall later say a few words on the basis of what the noble Lord, Lord Sharman, has said about our cultural relationships.

No one doubts that, like other countries in the Arab world, Morocco faces huge challenges—massive illiteracy, at 44%, and fast-growing youth and graduate unemployment. I pose the intriguing question: given this background, why has there been no Arab spring or Arab uprising in Morocco? Why is Morocco apparently largely exempt from the turbulence of most of the other Arab countries? I observe that, broadly, the monarchies have largely avoided such troubles. His Majesty King Mohammed VI is a force for stability and has had the political wisdom to ensure political evolution in the direction of a constitutional monarchy and an intent to ensure that moderate Islamic forces are kept within the tent. It helps, of course, that he is a direct descendant of the Prophet.

Externally, Morocco is conscious of its role as a bridge between the north and the south of the Mediterranean. One speaks of l’exception Marocaine, which arises from its geography and history and a self-confident view of its own role—the positive role it has played in Syria and the moderating role it has played in Israel/Palestine. As to the Barcelona process of 1995, the Union for the Mediterranean, Morocco has tried to build a regional impetus but this has been hampered by the west Sahrawi question. I have visited both the Laayoune and Tindouf and seen the position at first hand. In my judgment, ultimately the Moroccan offer of a substantial autonomy will be the end. That will allow a much greater regional link between the north and south of the Mediterranean.

Morocco is the pioneer of linking with western European organisations, NATO and the Council of Europe—I am a member of the assembly—which concentrates on strengthening democratic institutions and the rule of law. Of course, there are problems: the need to reform the judiciary and fight corruption; money laundering; media freedom; the position of women; and child labour. However, by and large Morocco has played a very positive role. In 2009 the Council of Europe Assembly created a new status of Partner for Democracy, and Morocco was the first country to enjoy that status of all the neighbours of the Council of Europe.

In March I was in Rabat as part of a monitoring process, and this week the Assembly will debate the two-year monitoring process of that new status. The school report, which is being debated this week, is mainly positive, describing what the rapporteur calls a “promising start”. The Venice Commission has recognised the quality of the new constitution. The king called on the winning party in the general election to form the Government, and Morocco has acceded to many Council of Europe conventions. There is indeed a new dynamic.

Finally, I would like to say a word about our bilateral cultural relations, which have largely been covered by the noble Lord, Lord Sharman. We have tried to identify areas of mutual interest. The tradition is of course francophone, but Morocco recognises that English is the language of employability and of research. Euromonitor found there to be a 12% wage premium for anglophone Moroccans. The British Council does remarkable work on the language side, with two language schools in Morocco and a flourishing examination bureau. Programmes include youth employability.

There has been an emphasis on English teaching, both at school level and at higher education level. In passing, let me say that I hope that the Moroccan diaspora in the UK—including graduates, many of whom wish to keep links with Morocco—may be used by our country for English language teaching, both in schools and as assistants in Moroccan universities. The emphasis has been on language, governance and link-building. There are research agreements and, as the noble Lord said, bilateral university agreements, and an excellent arts programme in design, digital arts, music and film.

Overall, there are very constructive links in this field. Of course, French predominates because of the country’s history. Our overall aim is not in any way to replace French—that would be impossible in any event—but to respond to the Moroccan wish to diversify, and to encourage and support the wish to diversify in a collaborative way. Thus the wide education, commercial, scientific and cultural opportunities offered by the globalised anglophone sphere will be made available to Morocco. It is an ambitious programme for a very special and friendly country. I congratulate my noble friend on procuring this opportunity to discuss our bilateral relations.

Turkey

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Thursday 20th June 2013 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

My noble friend raises important points and we have raised our concerns exactly in the way that she has described. Of course, she will accept that Turkey is on a positive path to reform. A huge amount of economic and constitutional reform has been effected. As regards Europe, we are concerned about countries that are raising concerns about not opening up further chapters on accession; however, we must also remember that before these protests there were many countries which for the past three years have objected to opening up any chapters on further accession.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

There is proper concern at the increasing authoritarian tendencies by the Turkish Government and certain Islamic tendencies. However, should not the Turkish Government be given credit for their opening up to their Kurdish minority and their far greater reconciliation than any previous Government, not only in Turkey, particularly in the south-east provinces, but also in relations with the Kurds in northern Iraq?

[Baroness Warsi]

The noble Lord makes an important point. As well as reform of the constitution generally that has assisted the Kurdish peace process, progress in that process has meant that Turkey has been heading in the right direction, and we must support and congratulate it on that.

Kenya: Kenyan Emergency

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 18th June 2013 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

I know that the noble Lord comes at this with great experience. If I am correct, he was there during the emergency period. It is something that I can take back but at this moment the commitment that has been made has been for this particular memorial.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, has this welcome decision led to any similar claims from other victims of our colonial past—sometimes glorious, sometimes less glorious—and do we anticipate, following the precedent of this decision, any similar claims?

[Baroness Warsi]

It is important to understand that this was not compensation agreed: it was an out-of-court settlement in a specific case involving specific claimants. I do not believe that it sets a precedent but, of course, anyone who believes that they have a case can bring it.

Iran: Election

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Monday 17th June 2013 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

That was a great plug for what the noble Viscount does. “Parliament Revealed” is an incredibly important programme. I have seen first-hand its impact in central Asia and it is certainly to be welcomed. If other countries can take advantage of that, we would support it. We can certainly say about Dr Hassan Rouhani, who has studied in the United Kingdom, that it will not be the unfamiliarity of how our system operates that will stop us from moving forwards.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, the power structure in Iran is very complex. The Revolutionary Guards remain in place and, as we have seen in Syria, the supreme leader is still there. We should not expect any abrupt changes. However, do we leave the initiative entirely with the new president when he is inaugurated in August? What initiatives are we thinking of at that time to try to normalise relations? Should we not, with our allies, consider carefully the level of representation at the inauguration of the new president?

[Baroness Warsi]

The noble Lord is right in relation to the supreme leader’s position. He will be aware that Dr Rouhani has been one of the supreme leader’s personal representatives on Iran’s Supreme National Security Council for many years. We look forward to his actions when he is sworn in as president and whether he will show that he is willing and able to resolve Iran’s most pressing problems, including the international community’s concerns about the nuclear issue. As for whether we will step up our engagement, the noble Lord will be aware that, following the attack on our embassy in November 2011, we reduced our diplomatic relations to the lowest level, although we still have arrangements in place in each other’s capitals that allow communications between the UK and Iran. He may be aware that the Swedes and Omanis assist us in allowing those communications to take place. We must be assured, first and foremost, that our staff are secure and safe and that our mission will be allowed to carry out the full range of embassy functions before we can consider how we would step up this relationship.

Kenya: Presidential Election

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Wednesday 22nd May 2013 Grand Committee

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

I am delighted to follow the noble Lord. He and I share a common love affair with Africa, along with the noble Earl, Lord Sandwich, and I agree with all that he has said in his analysis. The elections in Kenya were good news, in part for what did not happen. There was no repetition of the awful events of 2007 and the tribal massacres and there was an ending of what had been a muddle in Africa, where Presidents in uniform had often been the order of the day. That was the case for a number of reasons, including the new constitution, the new electoral commission, the Supreme Court and, as some might more cynically say, because two of the opponents at that time had now become the President and Vice-President. Of course, there were allegations of vote-rigging, but the President received a majority on the first round—the turnout in the elections of roughly 80% puts us to shame in terms of enthusiasm for voting. It was an excellent example of the loser, having first questioned the results, then wholeheartedly accepting it as soon as the Supreme Court had given its ruling.

I need hardly stress the importance of Kenya, as the noble Lord has done, with its internal growth and the extent of UK interests. Externally, Kenya has been a force for good in the region. Like the noble Lord, I think not only about Somalia and Kenya’s assistance against piracy, including with the courts, but also about Kenya as a key ally against terrorism in the region—and, of course, as a good Commonwealth partner.

The problem is clear, as the noble Lord said; it is the one posed by the International Criminal Court, especially for us, now that the President and his Vice-President are both indictees. It is something of an embarrassment for us and for the international community. Clearly, the indictees have been properly elected—the first time that that has happened. Do we shun them or have minimum contact? What consultations have there been with our European Union partners and with the Commonwealth? Already the President has been to the Somalia conference in London and I assume that he will attend the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Sri Lanka. The experience of the indicted President al-Bashir in Sudan is quite different. Here we have a good ally, too big to ignore. Is it still the case that the proceedings are scheduled to begin in July or, as some rather hope, is the case collapsing? I suspect that the British Government would want the whole procedure at the International Criminal Court to fade far away so that we can forget it.

This raises a general point about the work of the International Criminal Court. After the series of ad hoc tribunals in the 1980s and 1990s, the Rome treaty on the International Criminal Court was warmly welcomed at the time. Yet, of course, there is not universal membership—I believe that the current membership is about 130 or 140—and there has been only one conviction in the period since 2002. Equally, a number of key countries, including the United States and other P5 members, are not members of the International Criminal Court.

Perhaps philosophically we have here a clash between justice and politics. Some will say, “Let justice be done whatever the result”, yet there is the question of politics. For example, suppose in Syria President Assad were to say, “Yes, my time is up. I will be prepared to go into a friendly country in exile, together with members of my family and entourage, so long as no proceedings are taken against me”. There would be a great temptation in the international community to proceed against him because of the very clear massacres and human rights violations in Syria. However, allowing him to move into a safe haven could save many thousands of lives. This is part of the dilemma that the international community would face.

I refer to the criticisms made at the inauguration of the new President by President Museveni of neighbouring Uganda. He said—and perhaps we should not pay too much attention to this—that it is to be noted that all the indictees thus far have been African. Is there a degree of bias against Africa in the ICC? Is it right that there has been poor evidence-gathering on behalf of the ICC—for example, too great a willingness to collude with Presidents, as it is alleged happened in the Congo and perhaps with Prime Minister Odinga in Kenya? I think that that probably is answered by the fact that the indictees included members of both Mr Odinga’s party and that of President Kenyatta. At least, those criticisms need to be examined.

What is the Government’s view? Do they accept in part the criticisms of President Museveni on the validity? Perhaps it would be helpful if the Minister, in responding, could say specifically how we intend to deal with the President of such an important Commonwealth country. What are the instructions to our high commissioner, remembering that these proceedings may take many years and there will be, as the Kenyans say, a trial by Skype? Do the Government, at least in part, accept the criticism of the conduct of the International Criminal Court raised by President Museveni?