Somalia

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Monday 21st March 2011 Lords Chamber

Asked By

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what is their assessment of the political situation in Somalia.

[The Minister of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Lord Howell of Guildford)]

My Lords, the political situation in Somalia remains fragile and its instability presents increasing threats to the region and beyond. We continue to work with the Transitional Federal Government and our international and regional partners to take forward the UN-led Djibouti peace process. We, together with the United States and others, have made clear to the transitional federal institutions that there can be no extension of their mandate without reform to make them more legitimate and representative in the eyes of the Somali people.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, for the past two decades, Somalia has been a classic failed state, yet within its territory is the autonomous enclave of Somaliland, the old British protectorate. It is democratic, it co-operates with the international community as regards pirates, it seeks its own independence and international recognition, and wishes to be a member of the Commonwealth. Amid all the turbulence in the Arab world, surely now is the time for the Government to encourage African Commonwealth members to raise the matter in the African Union in the hope that there can be proper international recognition of what is a successful entity: the old British Somaliland.

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

The noble Lord is quite right to draw attention to this issue, and I recognise the stability and achievements of Somaliland. Indeed, that recognition is reflected in the specific aid for Somaliland that has been given. When it comes to recognition as an independent state, while that is something that the Somaliland people have sought, it really is a question of getting their neighbours to lead the way. At the moment there is no recognition of Somaliland as a separate state by any country in the world. It may be that it is through the African Union that a change of heart should come, but our position is that this is a matter that has to be settled by the Somali people themselves and their neighbours rather than unilaterally by us.

Shipping: Piracy

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 15th March 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

My noble friend is absolutely correct. The situation is getting more serious every week. More and more ships are being attacked by the hijackers and the piracy operation is growing, so he is completely right to recognise the seriousness, as do Her Majesty’s Government. We are, as he says, in the lead on the Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somalia. We are seeking to develop more substantial facilities to meet and track the pirates. The question of the UAVs is difficult. We have none, but of course our American allies do. A great many of these are currently deployed elsewhere, but my noble friend can rest assured that we intend to develop a more robust response in relation to these and other kinds of maritime air patrol because it is certainly needed.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, the Minister will be aware of reports of a deal between the pirates and al-Shabaab, an affiliate of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, whereby the terrorists cream off some of the money that goes to the pirates. Do the Government accept that this is likely to be true? If so, will it not have an affect on us in the possible financing of terrorism through the diaspora in the UK and in possibly making insurance companies in the UK liable for that financing?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

I have certainly heard of these reports and there are a great deal of rumours surrounding the whole question of the relationship between pirates, pirate finance and terrorism in the region, but we have no firm evidence of this particular pattern of transaction. It is, however, something that we are investigating and watching very carefully indeed.

British Overseas Territories

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Thursday 10th March 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, this has been a wonderfully varied debate, culminating in the typically discursive speech of the old seafarer, the Lord, Lord Selsdon, moving from motto to motto. For me, the debate seemed to depend on the three Es: that is, the economy—the tax havens and tourism; the ecology, particularly the British Antarctic territory referred to by the noble Viscount, Lord Montgomery, and the British Indian Ocean territory as mentioned by the noble Earl, Lord Selborne; and the ethical obligations set out by the right reverend Prelate as regards dealing with people and not financiers.

I was particularly struck, as I am sure all Members of your Lordships’ House were, by the maiden speech of the noble Lord, Lord Ribeiro. He is a distinguished surgeon and perhaps, more relevantly, a distinguished son of Achimota Hospital, which has sent distinguished Ghanaians around West Africa and beyond as the pioneer providing the new colonial experts from West Africa.

We owe a debt to the noble Baroness, Lady Hooper, who has been a long-time campaigner for overseas territories. I was delighted that she mentioned the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association and the role that it plays in focusing our attention on the overseas territories. I note that at the current 60th Westminster Seminar on governance, parliamentary procedure and practice, of the 67 participants, 12 come from the overseas territories. That is so important in making these people, who are often from remote territories, walk tall in the world.

With regret, I note that there is often a prevailing attitude in this country to the overseas territories of ignorance and neglect. I am very ready to concede initially that that neglect did not begin at the time of the previous election, nor did the problems we have in looking to the future. Save at times of crises, there is little mention in the UK of the overseas territories. An exception was the interesting series of articles in the Times in November 2009 by Michael Binyon. About the overseas territories, he wrote:

“They feel abandoned, forgotten, former strategic assets that are now seen in Whitehall as costly liabilities”.

The temptation in a debate of this nature is to give a Cook’s tour of various overseas territories. I congratulate the noble Baroness on taking up several key themes, rather than taking us around places she has recently visited.

I shall concentrate on only a few reflections and will not mention all the overseas territories. How would one explain now to the man—perhaps one should say person—from Mars the nature of our overseas territories? In the old empire there were swathes of red all over the map. Now there are but pinpricks. One is struck by the fact of diversity in the fullest sense. Fourteen islands and territories are scattered around the globe, the only nexus being a fierce loyalty to the Crown as remnants of a once-proud empire and too small to be viable on their own. Some are large, some are small; some are constrained by old treaties such as Gibraltar and Utrecht; some are rich—indeed, Bermuda and the Caymans have among the highest GDP per head in the world—some are poor, such as St Helena and Pitcairn; and some are inhabited and some uninhabited, like the British Antarctic Territory mentioned by the noble Viscount, Lord Montgomery, and of course the Chagos Islands, mentioned by the noble Lord, Lord Luce, and the noble Earl, Lord Selborne.

Some of the territories have a recent history that makes us feel somewhat ashamed. There have been criticisms that we have not been as quick and ready to deal with the new Government of Anguilla as we should. We think also of the corruption scandals that have characterised the Turks and Caicos Islands in the recent past, the sex scandals affecting eight of the 50 or so inhabitants of Pitcairn, and the disgraceful attitude of this country towards the Îlois, the Chagossians. The noble Lord mentioned the Wikileaks material which showed a certain hypocrisy on the part of the then Government who talked about the marine protection area as if it had been devised for environmental reasons, but it seems that a key consideration was that it was a device for denying the Îlois the right of return. Before the election, the coalition partners were generous in their promises to the Îlois. One can cite statements made by both the current Foreign Minister and Nick Clegg, who said:

“It is a disgrace that £2m of taxpayers’ money … has been squandered in order to uphold this injustice”.

In replying, can the Minister say whether we intend to spend yet more taxpayers’ money in opposing the application before the European Court of Human Rights? The coalition has called for a new approach to the overseas territories, saying that it regards them as assets and not liabilities. Obviously we need some indication of how this approach is intended to work.

My second reflection is this. Rather like the title of the film “The Empire Strikes Back”, there are a number of problems left for London, along with a number of contingent liabilities. A 2007 National Audit Office report stated:

“Our overall conclusion is that since 1997, whilst progress has been made in managing and mitigating some risks; the degree of success in both individual Territories and across key risk areas has been mixed”.

An earlier report from the Public Accounts Committee, published 12 years ago, pointed out the difficulties we faced as a result of our international responsibility for the territories in terms of social matters, the death penalty and so on.

Equally, there are the problems of financial regulation and the tax havens mentioned by the right reverend Prelate. The Cayman Islands is the largest centre for hedge funds. Gambling is becoming an increasing provider of employment on Gibraltar, as many companies move there from this country as a result of its favourable tax regime. Another general question in the report was: what was in the past a benefit to the UK in terms of trade routes but which perhaps is not a continuing benefit, what are the obligations to the territories which remain? These were covered generally in the NAO report. The noble Lord, Lord Jones, pointed out that the Government underwrote £160 million of bank loans to the Turks and Caicos Islands following the corruption scandal. What are the potential liabilities on the aid budget because that sum represents a substantial amount for each of the inhabitants?

In July, Ministers approved the use of aid funds for the construction of a long-promised airport on St Helena. I concede that it is a moral obligation, yet there has to be a question mark over the viability of the population of St Helena, particularly following the grant of citizenship in 2002. Swindon has benefited from the many Saints who have gone to live there, and one wonders how demographically St Helena will survive when so many of the younger people have tasted the good life in Swindon. I made this point to some representatives of the Saints at the time of the granting of citizenship in 2002. Perhaps it is, alas, one of the unintended consequences.

My final reflection is this. How stable and long-lasting is the current relationship? Each territory presents its own problems. Is there any vision on the part of this country, any overall plan for the next decade or two, to ensure that the territories will be assets and not liabilities? For example, will the relationship between the FCO and DfID concerning the overseas territories be the same? Do we assume that Bermuda, with its large and prosperous population, will remain an overseas territory for, say, the next decade? If Bermuda becomes independent, that would make the overall population substantially less than 200,000. Have we considered new options, such as the precedent of the French territoires d’outre mer and other interesting constitutional devices to give the overseas territories a greater voice here in Westminster? Why should not selected representatives of the territories sit in your Lordships’ House? It would not be difficult and it would mean that the voice of the people of the overseas territories could be heard quite directly. France is able to benefit substantially from EU funds as a result of the DOMs and the TOMs, and equally through representation of French people from overseas in the French Parliament.

I turn to the position of Gibraltar and the Falklands, referred to so well by the distinguished former Governor of Gibraltar, the noble Lord, Lord Luce. We have successfully resisted pressure from neighbouring countries on both Gibraltar and the Falklands, and perhaps the lesson of 1981, in which the noble Lord, Lord Luce, played a distinguished part, is that we need to consult more closely with the inhabitants of those countries on any constitutional change. In Gibraltar, the Chief Minister has indeed made contact with the Spanish and recently sent up an interesting trial balloon by talking about a sort of Andorra solution for the future of Gibraltar. Can the noble Lord say whether Ministers are willing to give this a hearing or not?

On the Falklands, had there been someone from the islands here, no doubt they would have spoken rather more clearly about their vulnerability to defence cuts than the distinguished former military people who speak on their behalf. We recognise that relations between the Falkland Islands and this country are good, which was particularly evident at the Overseas Territories Consultative Council held last November. Like others, I shall raise three issues on behalf of the Falklands and the overseas territories.

Based on the fact of UK sovereignty and the need to boost the economy, the fees for Air Safety Support International, which has not been mentioned so far, have risen greatly. The Department of Transport is seeking to recoup higher fees from, for example, the Falklands, amounting to around £125,000. The impact of the air passenger duty has already been mentioned. It has a specific impact on the Falklands, because they fall into band D. Since last November, there has been an increase in duty per passenger to the Falklands of £85 in economy and £170 in other categories, which is clearly a potential blow to tourism in the Falklands.

Pension payments to UK citizens have been already been mentioned by the noble Lord, Lord Jones, and others. Her Majesty's Government have already accepted the principle that there should be no discrimination in UK law in respect of fees to students from the overseas territories.

There is a need for some innovative thinking, a consideration of what it means for these territories to be assets, and a recognition that we cannot continue to stumble along with no fixed aim as we are doing currently.

Israel and Palestine

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Thursday 3rd March 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

I agree it is a very important matter, worth considering, but I am afraid my answer at the moment to the noble Lord is that we are still looking at it—in a positive light and in light of the need to upgrade the negotiations and get momentum behind them—but we have not reached a decision yet.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

Does the Minister agree that whatever the effect of the unrest, the fundamental fact remains that it is the United States that will have the key role, if it so chooses, in the peace process and, further, that our own potential role is hampered by the fact that many Israeli politicians and military people stand the danger of being arrested in this country if they were to come? What are the prospects for Clause 151 of the Police Reform and Social Responsibility Bill, which at least would allow the DPP to interpose his judgment, rather than that of a magistrate, before a private prosecution takes place?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

As the noble Lord knows, the Government intend to amend the law so that a private individual cannot obtain an arrest warrant under universal jurisdiction without the consent of the Director of Public Prosecutions. We are quite pleased with progress—the legislation passed through Second Reading in early December and we expect the Bill to have Royal Assent before July. The problem has been recognised and action is being taken.

France: Bilateral Defence Co-operation

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Wednesday 16th February 2011 Lords Chamber

Asked by

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government whether they have any proposals to build on the recent treaties with France on bilateral defence co-operation by exploring initiatives for diplomatic and foreign policy co-operation.

[The Minister of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Lord Howell of Guildford)]

My Lords, our relationship with France, further strengthened by the November 2010 UK-France summit, is one of our most important bilateral relationships. Since President Sarkozy visited London for the UK-France summit, we have also welcomed the Prime Minister, the Foreign Minister and the Europe Minister. Bilaterally, we work on a range of foreign policy and European issues, as well as immigration, counterterrorism, climate change, employment and social affairs. France is also an important trade partner. It will host the next UK-France summit later this year.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, surely the logic of sharing defence assets is that we need a foreign policy agreement on where to deploy those assets. Now, when both countries are experiencing similar financial stresses, should we not look at the collocation of embassies, sharing diplomats and co-ordinating policies in areas such as West Africa? Will the Minister also consider the possibility of encouraging our Commonwealth partners to look at a new dialogue with La Francophonie, which, again, would be in our mutual interest? Where are the new proposals in preparation for the summit to be held later this year?

Middle East and North Africa

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Monday 14th February 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord Davies of Stamford]

My Lords—

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords—

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

I thank my noble friend. My right honourable friend the Foreign Secretary has indeed made clear his view that it is not up to us alone, but that we can play a distinctive and effective role. We intend to do so.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, in the final paragraph of the Statement, it is said that,

“the UK will be an active and distinctive voice in the Middle East”.

That begs the question of how that voice will be transmitted to the various countries of the Middle East. In Friday’s debate the noble Lord said, very flexibly and in a very welcome way, that he would revisit the cuts to the BBC World Service. He also mentioned the Westminster Foundation for Democracy. Surely we need to look at this in the round and look at what DfID is doing in the Maghreb and elsewhere. We should also look at strengthening our embassies. For example, when the Foreign Affairs Committee visited the Maghreb five years or so ago, we were very concerned about the low emphasis that we placed on that key area. Surely we should now revisit this and reconfigure all those various instruments that are available to us to convey the voice that is spoken of in the last paragraph.

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

I would make it clear to the noble Lord that the words I said on Friday were carefully chosen. I did not say that I would revisit the cuts; I said that my right honourable friend the Foreign Secretary was looking at the proposals that had been put to him by the BBC World Service and examining the reasons and explanations for the decisions that it wants to take. At the heart of these is the view of the BBC World Service authorities, under whom these decisions have to be made, that the short-wave services are not the best way and the priority way of maintaining communication and our voice and influence in the Arab world. They point to the fact that—we debated this at length on Friday—although radio is still extremely important, up and coming are online services, a mass of television services, iPad services, mobile internet services and a thousand other things which are creating the opportunities to convey good messages and, I am afraid, some bad ones as well. Those are the conditions of the modern world that have empowered the street, as it were, more than ever. What I said on Friday reflects exactly the position at the moment. My right honourable friend the Foreign Secretary is certainly looking at it and discussing it with the BBC but it is up to the latter to decide how it wants to react within the inevitable parameters of the budget, which are unavoidable for all sorts of reasons I do not want to go into now.

As to the noble Lord’s wider point, he is absolutely right—the situation has changed. As to whether that should have been predicted exactly, some of us indicated more than a decade ago that this sort of world was emerging. The situation has changed in the Middle East. There could be entirely new relationships between peoples and Governments and parties and politics and military forces. In these circumstances we must be agile and review the disposition of our influences and our programmes. The noble Lord is right about that and I agree with him.

Middle East and North Africa

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Friday 11th February 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, we have had the privilege of listening to two magisterial opening speeches and the benefit of hearing from noble Lords who have drawn on a vast reservoir of experience in the Middle East. My own experience is more limited but in 1967 I visited President Nasser in his home just after the six days’ war. He told me that Israeli airplanes had circled his house, and that it would not happen again. I was again in Egypt last summer where I met members of the Muslim Brotherhood, albeit under the labels of independents, in the Parliament of Egypt. I also met the Arab League. When I saw that Amr Moussa was mingling with the crowds in Tahrir Square, I realised that we did, indeed, have a watershed in this region.

History is happening. Indeed, had this debate taken place even yesterday, it might have had a different tone. There is an old adage that democracies wither and die slowly but autocracies die suddenly by fits. There is a difference between the autocracies in the Middle East—all under pressure—and the monarchies. However, even in Morocco, which has gone further along this route and whose king, Mohammed VI, can claim descent from the Prophet, one is likely to see demands for a more constitutional monarchy. One’s first thought is that, as in 1989—the year of revolutions—events have caught Governments by surprise. I suppose the only mitigation is that events have caught the Muslim Brotherhood by surprise as well. It is a fast moving picture. The Tunisian interim Prime Minister is a member of the old regime, as, of course, is Vice-President Suleiman of Egypt, who seeks to negotiate with the popular representatives. I am reminded that revolutions are poetry and governing is prose. When we move from the unifying demand of the removal of President Mubarak, one is likely to see a division in the square between the absolutists who brook no compromise and the pragmatists, who will, we hope, ultimately triumph and will be met with cries of treachery from some in the crowd.

What has changed in the Middle East? One thing which has clearly changed is the fear felt of rulers by the ruled. Your Lordships will recall when Ceausescu appeared on the balcony in Bucharest and was hissed at by the crowd. There was almost a Ceausescu moment when the rulers tried to order the people in Tahrir Square and were met with indifference and opposition. The situation will never be the same again for the rulers of other Arab states and all autocrats in the region will sleep less easily—“uneasy lies the head”.

The future is uncertain. Some pessimists see parallels with what happened with the Jacobins in 1789 and with the Bolsheviks in 1917, and the danger of a well organised group taking control—again, new presbyter may become old priest writ large. However, many signs of hope are evident and are being broadcast by the new media and new means of communication. What has not changed are the challenges posed by democracy and the fact that the states in the Middle East are all ranked very low indeed in the EIU democracy index, which means that institutions in those countries have to be developed almost from scratch.

Equally, the economic and demographic factors have not changed. Successive UNDP reports on human development in the Arab world, as previous speakers pointed out, show the problems of governance, the underachievement in the Arab world, the unwillingness often to face reality, and the scapegoatism which states that the fault is not in ourselves but in our stars, the United States or Zionism. Expectations are high, yet there is high unemployment throughout the region and a young population. Roughly 50 per cent of the population of most countries in the region is under 25. How can one possibly meet the demands for improved education, housing and health after the turbulence of transition, which is likely to deter much foreign direct investment, and when global food prices are increasing inexorably? There is a clear danger of disillusion if new Governments do not deliver.

Those challenges of meeting the aspirations of an impoverished and very young population will have to be faced. What will be the result? For some, the choice is either 1979 Iran and the rule of the mullahs or, far more to be desired, 1989 and the year of revolutions in eastern and central Europe. My hope lies in the precedent and model of Turkey. The noble Lord, Lord Luce, was the only person to make this point. Turkey is a functioning democracy where the Islamic party, the AKP, works within a secular constitution. My noble friend Lord Desai mentioned the unravelling of the Ottoman Empire. Turkey historically has had an enormous influence in the region, and Prime Minister Erdogan has gained much credibility in the Arab street and has so far made all the right noises.

Turning to the relevance for the region, we could profitably examine the effects from Syria to the Gulf and beyond. The Arab street will clearly influence Governments, and perhaps lead movements towards Sharia law and to a much harder line to Israel and the Middle East peace processes. The rejectionists will probably be emboldened, and Iran of course has exulted in what has happened, although it may well face turbulence in its own streets.

There have been protests in the West Bank against Abu Mazen, and the Fatah old guard is under pressure. History may show that the Netanyahu Government missed a major opportunity. I recall discussing the issue with a former Kadima Cabinet Minister who said to Prime Minister Netanyahu on the eve of his accession to power, “You know it took us in Kadima four years to recognise the realities of what we should do with regard to the Palestinians”. Of course, there was the deathbed repentance of Barak before he lost power. The former Cabinet Minister said to Netanyahu, “Will it take you another wasted four years before you come to that same realisation?”. Perhaps WikiLeaks has revealed the concessions that the pragmatic Palestinian leadership was able to and prepared to make, but obdurate Israel was blocked by coalition sclerosis. Instead of an agreed settlement on the basis of two states there is more uncertainty, and Israel is likely to lose the security of its southern border with Egypt and possibly that of its border with Jordan.

I accept much of the Foreign Secretary’s criticism of Israel, but I wish that he had shown greater sensitivity to its problems. I hope, incidentally, that the Government will soon announce a change in the universal jurisdiction that prevents many Israeli politicians who could play a leading role in peace talks from visiting this country. That is long overdue.

I approve of the EU Council statement about the waste of taxpayers’ money on the autocracy in Egypt, but there should have been positive as well as negative conditionality. What has been the EU and US response? I understand the hesitation, because of the clash between values and interests. The starting point must be humility and recognition of limitations. However, the EU—as the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, pointed out—has vast experience of soft power, with programmes to assist countries on its periphery, and there is also the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. DfID may have to alter its priorities and invest more in Governments in the Maghreb. When I visited the Maghreb countries some years ago, I was struck by how limited our diplomatic effort there was.

As an aside, I recall when I was once in the western Sahara that my host at lunch left suddenly when his watch alarm went off. I asked why he had set it so and he answered that it was because the 1 pm news on the BBC World Service was starting: then he ran out to hear it. I echo the view of other noble Lords that we should look again at the cuts to the World Service.

What happens on the southern shore of the Mediterranean is relevant to us all. The Barcelona process of 1975 is dead. Euromed has met some of the same obstacles. Surely it is time for new initiatives in a new context. The Arab countries may now be more ready to give a positive response. The first response, as the Foreign Secretary has said, will be to the appeal of the Prime Minister of Tunisia. On the question of schemes of co-operation, I say yes to the Westminster Foundation, to the British Council, to good investment and to reconciling our interests and values and engaging across the board in a spirit of co-operation, particularly with the substructure or corps intermédiare—the non-governmental organisations. There are surely new possibilities for co-operation and we can, albeit in a new spirit, influence the region positively. I sometimes think that it is equivalent to the United States and Mexico, although the Mediterranean is deeper than the Rio Grande. It is vital to us in terms of energy, migration and general stability. It is a great challenge for us, for the United States, for our EU partners and, most of all, for the people of the region.

European Council and North Africa

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Monday 7th February 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

I do not want to move further than the words expressed by Sir Gus O’Donnell and the conclusions drawn by my right honourable friend the Prime Minister. My right honourable friend said that the report indicates that while there is—to repeat the words of my noble friend—no doubt at all about the veracity of the statements made by senior members of the previous Government, it is clear that there was more to tell and that some pieces of the total picture were lacking. That is where my right honourable friend and the Government stand on this matter. It must be for all those who were involved at the time to establish what they believed to be the position. Indeed, some of these remarks were made with force and feeling by the people who were directly concerned when the matter was discussed in the other place earlier this afternoon. I am not going to go further than that.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, the Statement sets out a more hard-line approach in respect of assistance to Egypt. Was this co-ordinated in any way with the US? I am recalling that Condoleezza Rice said in Cairo in 2005 that the US would no longer give priority to stability over democracy. Is the implication that, had there not been a revolution in Egypt, we would still have continued to spend billions of taxpayers’ money in Egypt and neighbouring countries with no reciprocity in terms of progress on torture, the judiciary, democracy and so on? Secondly, it is of note that the Prime Minister spoke to Vice-President Suleiman. It is the Vice-President who is co-ordinating the discussions with a number of the opposition parties. Is there any implication that, as some are suggesting, the President himself is fading more into the background, leaving the lead to the Vice-President?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

On the question of co-ordination with the United States, my honourable and right honourable friends, both in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and, obviously, in the Government as a whole, are in constant contact at all levels with United States officials. It would be naive, however, to stand at the Dispatch Box and pretend that these huge upheavals and events do not present to policy-makers and experts, no doubt in Washington and other capitals, something of a dilemma.

The pattern of the past produced a sort of stability, but it was the kind of stability that could be upset at every moment, as it was. The combustible materials were there; it was a question of when someone threw in a match. That is what happened in Cairo. That raises for the most balanced and clear-thinking people a dilemma as to whether the new pattern is going to improve on the old pattern or, indeed, where the new pattern will take us. We all know the adage about revolutions devouring their own children. They can turn into an opportunity to be seized for the good, as my right honourable friend the Foreign Secretary was rightly saying the other morning, or they can slide away in an unpredictable series of sequences, like the French Revolution, to which I referred earlier.

It is hard to answer the noble Lord, Lord Anderson, about how we and the Americans can be totally accurate in our predictions and the certainty of where to go. It is very difficult. We are monitoring and watching the situation very carefully, as are the Americans. We are reinforcing our concern in this nation and the American concern in their nation for liberty and freedom and the basic principles of civilised existence. We are hoping that these patterns will be reflected in whatever emerges in Egypt and, indeed, in other turbulent political scenes in the region. There is no guarantee or certainty, however, and this must be realistically and reasonably understood.

As for the pattern of power deployment inside Egypt and whether Omar Suleiman is now taking the reins, I do not think that I can comment beyond what we have all read in the newspapers. Mr Mubarak clearly wants to stay a few more months. He has appointed Omar Suleiman to take the lead in these negotiations. It is right that our leaders should contact him to understand as much as we can of how he sees the situation. This must be a dialogue that will, I hope, develop further in the future as we see what path these discussions take and what part the Muslim Brotherhood leadership and other political forces in Egypt play in them. This is really, for us, a matter to hope about rather than a matter in any way to interfere with. This is for Egypt to decide.

Middle East

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Wednesday 2nd February 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

My noble friend is right and confirms what I have just said, that the countries are different. I will certainly provide the briefing she requests. She is right, too, to suggest that a kind of wind of change—although one must be careful about historical analogies—seems to be sweeping through the area, and that raises new questions about forms of government. Whether those forms are along the lines of previous patterns or whether we see new forms of government, the general wish of a nation like ours must be to see orderly transition, maximum stability and the development of democratically minded and balanced societies that can bring peace and prosperity to the entire region.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, on the face of it, the Government who are likely to emerge from the current turbulence in Jordan are likely to be much closer to the Arab street, and therefore are likely to take a much more negative view about the Middle East peace process. Is that the United Kingdom Government’s assessment?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

That is a possibility. Clearly, the developments in Egypt will affect the outlook in the Israel/Palestine dispute and, depending on how other patterns evolve, that may well be so. The noble Lord, with his expertise, is right: from the point of view of Israel, things are changing, and there will need to be a reassessment. But exactly how it is going to work out it is too early to say.

Egypt

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Monday 31st January 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

I know what my noble friend is getting at, but I think that that is a false polarity. Something that I have learnt—in particular, in my dealings with the Commonwealth, which does not really come into this issue—is that democracy, the rule of law and good governance are the foundations of stability, investment, jobs and trade expansion. Where those things are not adhered to, or at least there is no trend towards them, problems arise that lead to challenges—not in every country; we can think of exceptions to that generalisation, but that is the scene. I do not think that the pattern of differentiation hinted at in my noble friend's remarks is entirely justified.

The certain and central truth is in my noble friend’s other observation that the UK has a long history in the area, not all of it bad. I am always interested in the way in which many countries with which we might have had bad relations in the past are extremely pro this country—I am thinking of countries slightly further to the east in the Gulf—and are constantly asking for stronger renewed links with the United Kingdom. Some of them have recently been saying to me, “Where is the United Kingdom? Please will you come back?”, so not all the history has been bad, although some of it has been very awkward indeed. The history of our relations with Egypt has had its good moments and its terrible moments over the past century, and certainly for the past 40 or 50 years, as we all vividly remember.

As to the practical matter of routes to the airport and getting nationals out, we are watching that carefully. If it were necessary to think in terms of special charters and so on, we would move immediately, but so far we are finding that the commercial airlines, including British and some non-British airlines, have capacity. The airport is operating again today better than it was and, most importantly, the routes to Cairo airport are clear and properly guarded in a way that it was feared they were not the day before yesterday and yesterday. The situation can change at any time, but at the moment it looks a little better. I hope that that is helpful to my noble friend.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, we should all devoutly hope that there will be a peaceful transition to democracy, notwithstanding the demographic explosion in Egypt, which leads to the lack of jobs and the water shortage, but there is another option. The spectre of the Iranian revolution still haunts the Middle East. The Minister will recall that at that time our embassy was rather dazzled by the Peacock Throne and that the revolution went downhill from Mr Bakhtiar, a liberal democrat, to end with the mullahs and Ayatollah Khomeini. How serious is the danger of such a decline? We must recognise not only how Egypt, the most populous Arab country, would be affected but, because of the linkage of the Muslim Brotherhood and other less moderate forces to the rejectionist forces in the Middle East, the blow that would result to the Middle East peace process.

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

Of course, the dangers are there. Revolutions and massive street protests can take unpredictable paths. I think that the analogy with the Peacock Throne and the fall of the Shah is not strong. There has been deep recognition for some time that the pattern of rule in Egypt and the far from fair and free elections conducted last year were paving stones on the route to trouble and that, although one cannot always assess the exact moment of conflagration, there were dangers. I said earlier that the power of electronic media, including the internet, in mobilising people and protests at lightning speed should not be underestimated. Some people have mentioned the machinery of Twitter, Facebook and all those other things. They can convey and gather information and organise people at fantastic speed.

The dangers were seen. Now the task, not for any individual country but for all responsible states men and women around the world, is to see that the pattern unfurls in a moderate way and that the more extreme elements—the younger hotheads in the militant Muslim Brotherhood, the jihadists, and so on—do not hold sway. My view is that there are many sensible, wise and talented people in Egypt and a strong middle class who, although they might be frustrated by past events, have a strong enough voice to give us some hope that moderation will prevail.