Middle East: Gaza and Syria

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts
Tuesday 20th November 2012

(11 years, 5 months ago)

Lords Chamber
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Baroness Warsi Portrait Baroness Warsi
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The noble Lord raises an important point. There is a famous saying in Urdu which loosely translates as, “It rarely rains when the fires are raging”. To try to reach final agreement on these matters when there is a crisis is difficult. It is important to have the agreed ceasefire. Foreign Ministers from the Arab League have been meeting in the region. Egypt and Turkey have been playing an extremely important role in trying to negotiate that. As part of that initial discussion to resolve the current crisis, discussions are ongoing in relation to a long-term solution.

Lord Anderson of Swansea Portrait Lord Anderson of Swansea
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My Lords, part of any ceasefire agreement will surely include international monitoring to ensure compliance. Are we and our allies ready, if the call comes, to comply with military personnel to do just that, remembering that Israel will be very cautious because of its experiences of UNIFIL in Lebanon and the time when it left Gaza, with its effect on that frontier? On Syria, how can we properly call the coalition legitimate when it has been subject to no election to ensure its legitimacy? We are apparently prepared to receive a political representative, whereas France calls that representative an ambassador. Why the difference?

Baroness Warsi Portrait Baroness Warsi
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In relation to the noble Lord’s suggestion about observers, we will respond to that situation as and when it arises. In relation to recognition, I think he would accept that it would be impossible to expect the Syrian opposition factions to be holding elections in Syria at the moment and to try to obtain legitimacy through the ballot box. We are trying to work with the various groups that have come forward in setting their own priorities. As they themselves say, this is a transitional council. Eventually, it is for the people of Syria to decide their future Government.

Russian Federation: Council of Europe

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts
Tuesday 30th October 2012

(11 years, 6 months ago)

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Baroness Warsi Portrait Baroness Warsi
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The UK’s position on the Magnitsky case is very clear: this was a terrible crime and needs to be fully investigated as soon as possible. We have made that clear to the Russian Government on a number of occasions. With regard to calls for a visa ban, we do not prejudge visa applications but, where there is independent, reliable and credible evidence that an individual has committed human rights abuses, that individual will not normally be permitted to enter the UK.

Lord Anderson of Swansea Portrait Lord Anderson of Swansea
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My Lords, is the Minister aware that, in spite of the Litvinenko affair and the Magnitsky matter, the Conservative group in the Council of Europe has formed a very cosy relationship in its political group with Putin’s party? Indeed, on this occasion it protected the Russian delegation from that vote. Will she therefore remind her Conservative colleagues of the fate of the young lady of Riga who also formed a rather close relationship with the Russians?

Baroness Warsi Portrait Baroness Warsi
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I do not know whether I can comment on that particular matter, but the noble Lord will be aware that we have a number of delegates who form part of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. They are not an extension of the Government; indeed, they have quite independent views. It is a matter for the Government to lay out their position, but that is not something that we can force upon those members.

Cyprus

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts
Tuesday 23rd October 2012

(11 years, 6 months ago)

Grand Committee
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Lord Anderson of Swansea Portrait Lord Anderson of Swansea
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My Lords, the recent reports contained in the helpful Library pack make gloomy reading for those of us who strongly favour the reunification of this beautiful island. The Congressional Research Service report ended by asking whether unification can be achieved at all, with the increasing possibility of a permanent separation; a view shared, for example, by Jack Straw. Historians may look back and see the events of 2004, 2008 and 2010, with the good relationship between President Christofias and Mr Talat, as failed opportunities, leading possibly to an ultimate separation.

Does the Minister see any signs of hope in the current position, for example on the apportionment of resources from the recently discovered gas fields? On demography, is it her understanding that many—some say up to 50,000—Turkish settlers have returned to the booming economy of the mainland? Will the election in February 2013 of Mr Anastasiadis of DISY, who voted yes in the referendum, have a positive effect? Does the Minister agree that the key to any possible settlement still lies in Ankara, which, after the EU dimension, has less incentive to press for an agreement?

Surely the grim reality is that there seems to be insufficient political will to make progress. There is currently a sense of drift, with both sides, particularly the younger generation, becoming used to the status quo of a divided island. The lack of confidence has been increased by recent border provocations. In classical Greek drama, when there was no clear ending, a “deus ex machina” was brought on to the stage. Alas, there appear to be none on the horizon, save, perhaps, the greater involvement of civil society as mentioned by the noble Lord, Lord Sharkey. The beautiful island of Aphrodite slides towards greater separation all because of a lack of trust on both sides and a continued failure to make progress on the core issues such as property and territory. Can the Minister cheer us by signalling any windows of opportunity?

Sudan and South Sudan: EUC Report

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts
Wednesday 17th October 2012

(11 years, 6 months ago)

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Lord Anderson of Swansea Portrait Lord Anderson of Swansea
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My Lords, I begin by apologising to the Minister and members of the Committee; because the earlier debate overran, I have run into personal problems with a longstanding family engagement, so I may have to leave before the end of the debate.

I welcome the follow-up report and the initial committee report, The EU and Sudan: on the Brink of Change. The very title of the initial report poses two questions. First, clearly the committee remit is restricted to the EU role, thus it does not have the total picture in focus—for example, the atrocities in Darfur. Surely we as a House need to revisit the possibility of a foreign affairs committee in the House of Lords. When I chaired the committee in the other place, I was in favour of such a foreign affairs committee because the world is a big place and, with adequate co-ordination, one could have such a committee.

Secondly, the title says “on the brink of change”. The initial report was published in June, after evidence over the previous months, with a follow-up report in March 2012. However, it is thin in the extreme, with only one witness, the Minister, and was a snapshot of a serious problem at the time, with the oil blockade and war. Happily, things have improved with the agreement of 27 September. This House needs to examine its procedures in order to allow such reports to be debated in a timely manner and not just deal with historic documents.

I will make one other preliminary remark. I looked in vain, in both reports, for any mention of the Commonwealth. The Government trumpet their attachment to the Commonwealth but they seem to ignore it when opportunities like this present themselves, particularly on governance and because of the proximity of Kenya and Uganda—two Commonwealth countries—and given the great experience, for example, of the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association in helping Governments in relation to their own administration.

States divide in different ways. At one extreme is the velvet divorce of the Czechs and Slovaks and at the other is Korea, where, after 60 years, North and South Korea still confront each other across the DMZ. The jury is out as to which of the two models the two Sudans will be closer to. There will certainly be a difficult transition. The wicked fairies at the birth of the new state ensured that there were many unresolved problems ready to flare into conflict. In 2005 the CPA, as the noble Lord, Lord Teverson, has said, left the borders not agreed, for example, on Abyei. The CPA stated that they should be based on a future consultation, but none has been held. There are 1,800 kilometres of border. There are some estimates that the disputed areas range up to 60%; the lowest expert estimate that I have seen is 20%. Of course, the concerns are different. At state level the concern is over the border, mainly related to the division of natural resources, particularly oil. At local level, and for the people, the concern is over access to water and pasturage because of seasonal migrations. Hence the case is for flexibility and soft borders, given the salience of that issue.

I am surprised that the first report did not highlight the expert work of a British-based NGO, Concordis International, with which I was involved over South Africa in the 1980s and Rwanda in the 1990s. I concede that in paragraphs 73 and 238 in the base report there is a recommendation that the EU should play a role in border-management issues, and in paragraph 159 a glancing reference is made to one EU Concordis project. In fact, though, Concordis International has been supported by the European Union since 2009, working to assist with conflict resolution and issues concerning border management and security. Now it has 15 staff based in Khartoum and 18 based in South Sudan, with three more soon to be deployed. The majority of the funding is of course from the EU’s EDF and Instruments for Stability. Activities facilitated by Concordis International include cross-border and migration conferences, the formation and training of peace committees, and capacity building for development projects. The recommendations that it has made from these activities on soft borders, seasonal migration and training for conflict resolution have been passed to the key stakeholders, including the AU panel mediating the conflict, and have been reflected in the September agreements. Perhaps the Minister will say a little about the expectations of those agreements and the key unresolved issues, such as the settlement of refugees and the pipeline projects. Currently the south is dependent on the good will of the north for its oil exports.

There has been a significant contribution by the EU to conflict resolution—prevention in both Sudans—as recommended in the committee’s report. There is, however, a case for saying that the projects could have benefited from an assurance of funding over a longer period. Again, the European Union has played a significant role in financing the work of the AU High-Level Implementation Panel. I understand that the EU delegation in Juba in the south is now in operation, after the delays mentioned in the report. Perhaps the Minister will confirm that.

The base report is valuable, but dated. The Concordis International experience of working with the EU has been very good. The EU has provided funding in a flexible way and shown great interest, enabling it to meet EU objectives based on its experience and modus operandi elsewhere. The EU has also been helpful in the management of grants and overcoming practical and bureaucratic problems.

After so many years of civil war the transition, since I first visited a rather more peaceful Sudan in 1967, was bound to be bumpy. Two highly vulnerable and fragile states emerged in July last year, and many serious political and economic problems remain. In the north the Republic of Sudan is the only country in the world led by an indicted war criminal. Only in September did the Republic withdraw its candidacy for the UN Human Rights Council at a time when its atrocities in Darfur were reported to be worsening. Surely this says something about the “Buggins’s turn” view of the African region in terms of the UN Human Rights Council, which may, alas, repeat the mistakes of its predecessor, the UN Commission.

A year after independence in the south, it is still talked of as a failed state. I cite the Africa Growth Institute at Brookings, the Atlantic and the special report in Le Monde on 7 July, all giving a very gloomy end-of-first-year report. Let us recognise that the EU is just one of the key players involved—others include the African Union, the UN, the US and China—but it should be given credit for its work. Obviously the two Sudans must make the key moves but the international community is playing a positive role in the transition. The base report and the follow-up report are therefore valuable, if dated. I very much hope that the Committee will return to this subject in future and will perhaps be able to give a more positive analysis of the two Sudans.

Nigeria

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts
Tuesday 24th July 2012

(11 years, 9 months ago)

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Lord Chidgey Portrait Lord Chidgey
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My Lords—

Baroness Anelay of St Johns Portrait Baroness Anelay of St Johns
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My Lords, we are at the beginning of Questions. Perhaps we may hear from the Opposition first. The noble Lord, Lord Chidgey, will then be next.

Lord Anderson of Swansea Portrait Lord Anderson of Swansea
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The Minister will be well aware that Boko Haram is only part of an Islamist tide sweeping across the Sahel. In northern Nigeria, a particular problem is the atrocities against the Christian community—the attempt, in effect, to cleanse northern Nigeria of Christians. What specifically are the Government doing to assist Nigeria, possibly in co-operation with our French colleagues because of the general nature of the problem, and to what extent do we fear for the unity of Nigeria?

Lord Howell of Guildford Portrait Lord Howell of Guildford
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The noble Lord is right that this is part of a larger series of trends and developments, some of them of a very ominous and dangerous kind —not least the instability in Mali and the attacks on Timbuktu that have been very much in the news. All those events reflect and connect with the activities of Boko Haram, to which the noble Lord referred. We are working with the Nigerians at all times to see how we can help them increase security. At the same time we are working with the French and other EU partners to address the whole issue of the Sahel, where all these dangers are arising. The noble Lord is absolutely right to call attention to them.

Court of Justice of the European Union

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts
Monday 23rd July 2012

(11 years, 9 months ago)

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Lord Anderson of Swansea Portrait Lord Anderson of Swansea
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My Lords, I thank the Minister for his usual clear explanation of what he has called “modest” and “technical” documents. I note that when his counterpart in the other place, David Lidington, set out the case in similarly moderate terms, he was assailed by visceral Europhobes on the government Benches, which illustrates, perhaps, the Government’s problem in pursuing a sensible European Union policy. Happily, looking around, I think it unlikely that the Minister will be assailed in a similar way today.

My substantive point is this: what is the mischief aimed at by these documents? Surely it is to reduce delays in the Court and generally to make it more efficient. Hardly a controversial aim, and the Government broadly accept these aims. The question is whether they are ready to accept the means to achieve those aims. The report of Sub-Committee E, to which the Minister alluded, published in April last year, was highly commended by the Court itself but had a disappointing response from the Government.

We set out the delays and predicted another crisis of workload, as a result both of the Lisbon additions to the work in the area of freedom, security and justice, and of the number of expansions of the membership of the European Union. The predictions of that sub-committee have indeed come to pass, in that in 2009 there were 17 preliminary requests in respect of Lisbon areas but in 2011 there were 44 such requests. That comes from the last annual report of the court, just published.

If justice delayed is justice denied, then there is a prime delay and hence a great deal of denial. The most recent annual report shows that in 2011 the General Court was certainly more productive but at the same time the backlog increased substantially. Clearly the Court cannot keep up with the volume of new business coming to it. To improve the situation, there are three broad areas to be considered.

The first is translation; it is a booming industry. We know prolix lawyers. The proposal to limit the translation to those deemed essential by the court was rejected, probably correctly, because only the litigants themselves can decide that which is important. The compromise was agreed that the Court of Justice may set the maximum of written proceedings. We must now wait to see if the result of that change justifies the Government’s confidence.

There were institutional changes, such as specialist committees, that were rightly rejected as they are inflexible. However, there were some useful minor reforms—for example, new powers given to the vice-president to reduce the workload on the president, and changes in the composition of the grand chamber to even out the workload between the judges. But the key way of reducing the backlog and increasing efficiency is clearly to increase the number of judges in the General Court—the suggestion is by at least 12. That was done in the Civil Service Tribunal by the appointment of three temporary judges in certain circumstances, as the Minister said. That may indeed be a partial solution for the General Court itself, but one cannot avoid the strong case for an increase in numbers.

In May, the Government supported the delay during the Danish presidency of the creation of a friends of the presidency group. The Minister will be well aware from Syria of the new currency of friends of this and friends of that in international parliaments. But there will be a delay until at least December until this informal procedure publishes its report and one returns to the formal procedure.

Therefore, the conclusion is that of course the Government must scrutinise very carefully any proposition for an increase in judges at this time of austerity, but there are also costs in delay. In 2009, as the Minister said, the CBI complained to the sub-committee that in competition cases—those cases most relevant to the single market—the average delay was then 33.1 months. The Minister will have noted that in 2011, according to the annual report, the average delay was 50.5 months. That is more than four years for litigants and business in the UK in single market cases to have to wait for a determination. Surely the Minister and the Government will accept that that is an intolerable delay.

With this compromise of the friends of the presidency, which will seek to report by December, in effect the Government and their allies are putting off a decision for yet another year. In December there will be the report of the friends of the presidency. That will have to be referred to the Council itself. The Council will have to deliberate on the various recommendations. Thereafter, if an increase is agreed—and almost certainly there will have to be some increase in the numbers—there will have to be a recruitment procedure. Perhaps the Minister can confirm this but there will probably have to be yet another delay of perhaps a year before any proposals arising from the friends of the presidency can be implemented.

We have seen the delays rise from 33 to 50 months. It may be well on another 10 or 12 months’ further delay, at great cost to British industry and great damage to the single market. The Government may be penny-wise but they will be proved to be pound-foolish.

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Lord Anderson of Swansea Portrait Lord Anderson of Swansea
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The Minister mentioned the December report. He surely recognises that that is an informal procedure, which has to be restored to the formal tracks. Does the Minister agree that it may take a year from now before any new judges are in place?

Lord Howell of Guildford Portrait Lord Howell of Guildford
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I cannot really agree with that because I do not know exactly how the pressures will build up. It is possible, of course, that it will take a year—that is a gloomy assessment—but the report may be very well focused. The momentum behind it may increase. Indeed, the results of this evening’s debate may assist in the kind of momentum that the noble Lord wants to see.

The noble Lord, Lord Bowness, who obviously speaks with enormous authority on these matters, asked particularly why Section 10 applied to the draft regulation relating to temporary judges of the EU Civil Service Tribunal. The answer is that the legal basis of that draft regulation is Article 257 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, and that is listed in Section 10(1)(d) of the European Union Act 2011, which we took through this House a year ago. That is the technical answer to the very detailed question that the noble Lord rightly put, because it is the detail that this Chamber can focus on remarkably effectively. It gives me great pleasure that your Lordships’ House is able to look in such detail at these matters.

Your Lordships mentioned a whole range of other issues, all coming back to the question of delay. Obviously costs are involved. In this age, we cannot just put them aside. Although costs should not be the decisive matter, we should take them very carefully into consideration.

The noble Lord, Lord Hannay, pointed out that, in addition to the fact that the Lisbon treaty obviously added greatly to the functions and responsibilities of the ECJ, ahead lie other key decisions about opting in and opting out in 2014. They are decisions that we will have to debate and they will be taken very carefully. I think that almost every other noble Lord who spoke, including the noble Lords, Lord Marks of Henley-on-Thames and Lord Liddle, and I have mentioned all the other noble Lords, all referred to speeding up matters.

Gibraltar

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts
Monday 16th July 2012

(11 years, 10 months ago)

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Lord Hoyle Portrait Lord Hoyle
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To ask Her Majesty’s Government what has been their response to incursions into the British sovereign waters off Gibraltar by the Spanish Guardia Civil.

Lord Anderson of Swansea Portrait Lord Anderson of Swansea
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My Lords, on behalf of my noble friend Lord Hoyle, and with his permission, I beg leave to ask the Question standing in his name on the Order Paper.

Lord Howell of Guildford Portrait The Minister of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Lord Howell of Guildford)
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My Lords, the Royal Navy challenges Guardia Civil and other Spanish state vessels whenever they make unlawful maritime incursions into British Gibraltar territorial waters. In such cases, we also make formal protests to the Spanish Government through diplomatic channels, making clear that such behaviour represents an unacceptable violation of British sovereignty.

Lord Anderson of Swansea Portrait Lord Anderson of Swansea
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My Lords, the Minister is well aware that in spite of the fact that Gibraltar territorial waters are recognised by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, there has been a considerable increase in incursions by Guardia Civil vessels into Gibraltar territorial waters. There were none in 2009, eight in 2010, 280 in 2011 and well over 160 this year. In light of that escalation, and to avoid any further increase, will the Government join the Gibraltar Chief Minister, the honourable Fabian Picardo, in challenging our good ally Spain to refer the matter for determination by the International Court of Justice or by the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea? Otherwise, on behalf of Gibraltar, will we take the matter to those international courts ourselves for final determination?

Lord Howell of Guildford Portrait Lord Howell of Guildford
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The noble Lord is quite right about the increase in the number of these incursions. The problem about referring the issue to the International Court of Justice is that of course it requires all involved parties to agree to it, which does not appear to be in prospect. We believe that the right way forward is the one we are adopting, which is that the response should be measured, we should continue to press the Spanish Government very carefully and there is no point raising the temperature or tension in these matters, as they can be resolved by discussion. We would like of course to go back to the trilateral talks based on the Cordoba agreement, if we could. They were progressing, but that route, too, seems blocked. The way forward is, as I have described, to insist that these are unlawful maritime incursions and should not be accepted. We raise them in the strongest possible terms with the Spanish Government at every opportunity.

Middle East: Recent Developments

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts
Friday 13th July 2012

(11 years, 10 months ago)

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Lord Anderson of Swansea Portrait Lord Anderson of Swansea
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My Lords, as we saw in the US debate over Iraq, military men are often the least belligerent. I begin by congratulating the Minister on yet another magisterial opening speech and the Government on providing yet another debate on the Middle East. I see the Middle East rather like a restless sea: always turbulent but with different spouts of water—different crises—appearing at different times. Two years ago it was Libya and Bahrain; now it is Syria and Egypt. There is always some crisis somewhere in the Middle East.

We would normally expect a concentration on Israel and Palestine, but today that is less the case because essentially the international community has given up on progress. There is indeed some progress in the Occupied Territories at the micro-level of economic development but there is no progress and no prospect of progress on the major issues that divide the parties. However, overall in the Middle East, it is clear that something fundamental is happening in the Arab world. No country is wholly untouched. The flames move from one country to another—from the Maghreb to Sudan and of course to Yemen. The foundations are being shaken and changes are occurring everywhere. The Jordanian King is inviting Hamas. As democrats, we must surely welcome these changes and encourage the developments that are taking place.

I shall make some general reflections, obviously concentrating on the Arab world, yet it is significant that the three most powerful nations in the region—Iran, Turkey and Israel—are non-Arab. The problem, as I see it, is, first, the terms that we use as we seek to describe what is happening: the Arab spring, the Arab awakening or the Arab revolution. We are always seeking to see these developments through a western perspective and we use terms that are less relevant to happenings in a different climate. It is what the French would call the faux amis, or false friends.

We refer to the “Arab spring”. There was an interesting article today in the Financial Times by Tzipi Livni, the former Foreign Minister of Israel, headed “Neither an Arab spring nor an Islamist winter”. Spring sometimes leads to winter. We think of the Prague spring of 1968, which afterwards led to further repression in the old Czechoslovakia. We also think of the hopes raised in 2005 by the Damascus spring and the further repression that came thereafter, leading to the current crisis.

The term “Arab awakening” was used in the early 20th century to describe the Arab nationalist revival at that time. It perhaps had its apogee with Nasser and Egyptian nationalism but it was essentially secular; it did not have a major religious element. Today, religion is often fundamental. Therefore, that is not a model.

Another term is “Arab revolution”. In European terms we think of 1848 or 1989, but the Soviet empire, particularly in central and eastern Europe, covered countries which often had a deep democratic tradition. The danger is in thinking of other revolutions—that of 1789, which began with the liberals blowing on the flames of a revolution that eventually consumed them, and that led to the Terror and eventually the Empire. We also think of the Iranian revolution, which began with the liberals—Bakhtiar and the others—and eventually led to the mullahs. Therefore, we have to be careful. Perhaps the absolutisms are more shaky now because of Twitter, but that is another consideration.

So, in despair, some of the think-tankers in Washington are now talking about the “Arab thing”. However, even that is misleading because the different manifestations of the unrest are as important as the matters that unite. For example, the winner of the recent elections in Libya, Mr Jibril, is called in the western press a liberal, thus attaching our western terms to him, yet he has said that he very much wishes to base his constitution on Sharia law. Where is western liberalism as we look at that?

Therefore, there was an overall failure in the western media to prepare us for the different manifestations, particularly in Tahrir Square. Cairo-based correspondents would interview a group of English-speaking, often western-educated, intellectuals, but in fact, when it came to the elections, 70% of those elected to the lower House and 80% of those elected to the upper House were either Muslim Brotherhood or Salafists. It is too easy to ignore the mass of the people—a point well made by the noble Lord, Lord Lamont. In Syria, the conflict is portrayed in black and white, and it requires the noble Lord, Lord Lamont, in a very good speech, and the noble Lord, Lord Wright, to at least give a certain nuance to the reality of the opposition.

The reality is that throughout the region religion has deep roots, and we ignore that at our peril. Who can forget Sir Anthony Parsons’ mea culpa over the failure of the Foreign Office to understand what was happening in the markets of Iran and a failure to see the importance of the mullahs prior to 1979. In Jordan, which we all admire in many ways, observers now say that the wearing of Islamic dress has advanced massively. In Egypt, people yearn for freedom, as the Gallup polls have shown over time. So the debate over the compatibility of Islam and western-style democracy has yet to be resolved. In Nigeria, for example, I was brought up to think of the major divisions as being between the various tribes. Now, the divisions are no longer tribal but religious ones between Islam and Christianity. The other point to make is the Sunni-Shia divide between and within states. It explains some of the problems, such as those in Syria or those involving Bahrain and the Saudis, preventing the island of Bahrain becoming wholly within the influence of Shia Iran.

Therefore, it is difficult to transplant democracy on to different soil. Israel, of course, is the great exception because of the great Jewish tradition of democracy from the European Jews. I think of the strictures of the several reports of the United Nations Development Programme on human development in the Arab world. Why are the Arab countries not developing more? It is a question not just of governance but of culture. Those reports are well worth reading lest we try to exaggerate the possibilities of development today. The realities exposed by those UNDP reports will not evaporate in the spring sunshine.

Finally, I wish to say a few words about Egypt. It is obviously the key country. It is central geographically in the Arab world; it is the most populous country; and culturally and politically it is by far the most important country. Now, there are new uncertainties—we certainly see through a glass very darkly. There are far more questions than answers. Who is President Morsi? How pragmatic is he? What are the policies of the Muslim Brotherhood in terms of women and minorities? What will be its foreign policy? Will Israel be scapegoated if things go wrong? There are still the fundamental problems of the economy—the decline of tourism, for example. We hope that the current confrontation between SCAF, the army and the president will be resolved. Happily, the supreme court is seen by both as playing a major role. One needs a grand bargain, and the army will have to be accommodated. Are both sides ready for that?

How do we respond to this turbulent Arab scene? We should recognise our limitations and recognise that the problems will have to be decided internally. We should be ready to intervene if asked with our use of soft power, such as the Venice Commission, the various foundations, the Westminster Foundation, the German foundations and others, including EU Mediterranean initiatives. We can only be benevolent outsiders with our feet on the ground, realistic but ready to intervene if asked.

China: Mineral Acquisitions

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts
Thursday 12th July 2012

(11 years, 10 months ago)

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Lord Howell of Guildford Portrait Lord Howell of Guildford
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My Lords, the motives behind the enormous expansion of Chinese investment across the whole globe—not just in Asia, Africa and South America—are mixed. In some cases the motives are purely commercial. At the head of the list, I think, one would put the Chinese authorities’ desire to acquire access to resources—minerals and particularly hydrocarbons—around the world to meet their enormous and very rapidly growing needs. There are also some direct concerns in investment to promote the welfare of the recipient countries. The British Government have in fact signed a memorandum of understanding with the Chinese Government on poverty reduction in the low-income countries. This is one of many dialogues that we conduct all the time with the Chinese on these matters.

Lord Anderson of Swansea Portrait Lord Anderson of Swansea
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What assessment have our own strategic planners and those of our allies made of the dangers of China over a longer term gaining such a monopoly of scarce mineral resources that it will be in a position to manipulate prices and possibly to manipulate other users of those scarce materials?

Lord Howell of Guildford Portrait Lord Howell of Guildford
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Of course, these dangers of monopoly control exist in all extractive industries, particularly for scarce resources. We have to watch those matters very carefully. What might be behind the noble Lord’s question is the issue of rare earths, the use of which is essential in practically every mobile telephone and the production of which was very much under Chinese control until recently. However, any attempt to limit the export of rare earths and thereby to manipulate price has been met by the discovery and development of rare earths elsewhere. Therefore, provided that we watch these matters carefully, competition can usually weaken the monopolies. I am not saying that it is a Chinese aim to monopolise these resources, but in the case of rare earths that was a danger.

Government of France: Meetings

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts
Tuesday 12th June 2012

(11 years, 11 months ago)

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Lord Howell of Guildford Portrait Lord Howell of Guildford
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Not in the time allowed, no. There is a perfectly sensible proposition that, although the growth of public expenditure has been restrained—in some areas, not actually cut at all—this is a necessary part of getting a balanced, suitably relaxed monetary policy in as far as it can be relaxed, paving the way for further expenditure on infrastructure, of which some has been authorised. One hopes that in future there will be more. This is the rebalancing of the economy that all sensible people are aiming for.

Lord Anderson of Swansea Portrait Lord Anderson of Swansea
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The Minister will recall with a certain amount of embarrassment that we on this side of the House welcomed candidate Hollande to London during his election campaign.

Going back to defence co-operation, the Minister well knows that we and France are the serious players in defence within the European Union. We both face economic difficulties. Has there been any signal yet from the new French Government that they wish not only to continue our substantial defence co-operation but even to enhance it?

Lord Howell of Guildford Portrait Lord Howell of Guildford
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On the second point, there has been a signal that they wish to enhance co-operation in a number of areas. On the question of welcoming opposition candidates to London, my right honourable friend is not physically in a position to be able to meet every opposition candidate. Other leaders such as Chancellor Merkel and Mr Monti in Italy did not meet Monsieur Hollande before he became President, but that was not taken as a snub or an offence; it was a perfectly normal procedure. Now they have met and have got on very well.