Lord Howell of Guildford
That this House takes note of recent developments in the Middle East.
The Minister of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Lord Howell of Guildford)
My Lords, the purpose of this debate is to reflect on the momentous events of the past 15 months in the Middle East and North Africa and their implications for our own security and prosperity.
Of course, the past 15 months represent only the very beginning of the process of change. In Syria, appalling violence and instability continue. New Governments in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya need to stabilise their economies, draft new constitutions and meet the expectations of their people. In Bahrain, steps are being taken to implement the recommendations of the committee of inquiry into the violence that went on last year, but this needs to be seen through fully. The important consideration is that change will be a long process—possibly very long. The path was never going to be, and will never be, straightforward. There are enormous challenges ahead, both economic and political, but, as my right honourable friend the Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary has said, the whole Arab spring phenomenon does at least raise the prospect of the greatest enlargement of human freedom since the end of the Cold War and of course of a wider Middle East that could be made up of open, prosperous and stable societies. That is of the greatest importance to us in the United Kingdom and to our interests in that region, and it is a goal worth expending prolonged efforts to move towards and showing great patience to achieve.
Perhaps I may be allowed to share with your Lordships some detailed views on the unfolding scene. I shall comment, first, on Tunisia, where in a sense it all began 15 months ago with the dramatic and tragic death of the fruit-seller, Mohamed Bouazizi. I applaud the remarkable process that the people of Tunisia have made in their so-called jasmine revolution. Following successful elections in October, a new broad-based Government have now been established, and the Constituent Assembly is leading the drafting of a constitution for Tunisia based on democratic values and human rights. We maintain full support for the Tunisian transition and the elected coalition Government. Tunisia is also beginning to take a more active role in foreign affairs, and it hosted the important 24 February Friends of Syria meeting. President Marzouki has recently completed a regional tour of all the Maghreb states, arguing strongly that now is the time to chart a new relationship between these countries. That is encouraging.
I shall say a word on Egypt. There, too, truly historic parliamentary elections represented an important step along the country’s path to change. We welcome continued progress on the political transition, including the announcement of presidential elections during May and June, and the transfer of power to an elected President by 1 July. Of course, the economic challenge in Egypt is extremely significant. Its faltering economy fails to meet the public’s high expectations for growth, jobs and better standards of living, and that could undermine the process of political reform. Violence over the past year has shown the scale of the problem that the Egyptian authorities must tackle, including the need to build full respect for human rights. We continue to urge the authorities to enshrine human rights in the constitution, including guarantees for minority rights, and to develop the other building blocks of democracy, such as a free media and a vibrant civil society. That is what the Egyptian people want and this is where we can help.
Turning to Libya, the Libyan authorities are making steady progress in their transition to a peaceful and stable country. In June, the Libyan people will have their first democratic elections in 40 years. I think that they can be immensely proud of the inspiration they have given to others around the world, as indeed we are of the UK’s role in supporting them. There is a lot of hard work ahead, including disarming militias, restarting the economy and building government institutions, but in our view Libya’s future is potentially brighter than it was a year ago. It will take time. The issue of how much federalism there is to be in the new constitution will have to be sorted out. However, we will continue to support Libya, especially in dealing with the legacy of the grim Gaddafi era, entrenching the rule of law and preparing for the June elections in close co-operation with the United Nations and other partner countries. It is to be expected that some will be frustrated by the pace of reform, but just over one year on from the beginning of the revolution the future of Libya is firmly in the hands of the Libyan people, where it should be.
As events in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, which I have mentioned, and more widely have shown, change has been led by the people of the region. It is not for the United Kingdom or any western power to dictate the pace or nature of the change from outside. We must also respect the choices that Arab citizens make democratically through the ballot box. This includes being prepared to work with new elected groups that draw their inspiration from Islam, while holding them to the same high standards of non-violence, respect for human rights and a willingness to respect the outcome of future elections that are expected of others. These things can, have in the past and will in the future, go together.
There is no one model of democracy; it is for the people of each country in the region to determine their own path in accordance with their different cultures, traditions and political systems. That is why we applaud in particular steps taken in states such as Morocco and Jordan, where leaders have initiated gradual reform processes. My right honourable friend the Deputy Prime Minister spoke to Morocco’s newly elected Head of Government, Abdelilah Benkirane, on 20 January to offer his congratulations and the UK’s full support for Morocco’s constitutional reforms. This country also stands fully ready to partner with Jordan as it undertakes to implement the reforms of His Majesty Kind Abdullah. We also look forward to upcoming parliamentary elections in May in Algeria, which I recently visited and where we have high hopes of closer relations. We also welcome the conference organised by the Maghreb countries on border security, which called together all those countries, including Algeria and Morocco, to reach decisions on co-operation.
I will say a word about Bahrain. We are urging the Government there to continue to implement the full recommendations of the Bahrain independent commission of inquiry. However, they must go further and implement political reforms. The Government and opposition parties say that they are ready to re-engage in dialogue, and we call on both sides to begin talks quickly. Agreement between the Government and the trade unions on the reinstatement of workers is a welcome move forward.
A much more difficult scene is found in Yemen. After 33 years as head of state, Ali Abdullah Saleh stepped down and formally handed over power to a new president. This followed the agreed Gulf Cooperation Council-brokered plan to bring about peaceful political change. The UK welcomed the inauguration of President Abbed Rabbo Mansour Hadi. The second phase of transition will not be at all easy. The economy is in disarray after years of intense unrest. Security must be re-established and Iranian meddling, which is clearly evident, must be resisted. The humanitarian crisis is growing and many disaffected parties who have been outside the political process will need to be brought to the table in an attempt to resolve their grievances. However, the opportunity is there and it deserves our optimistic support.
I will come to some more difficult areas in a moment. I will say a word about the role of Turkey, which is of increasing relevance and importance. The events of the past year have reinforced the importance of Turkey. It played a very important role in supporting the NATO mission in Libya. With its stable democracy and thriving economy, it continues to act as an inspiration for countries affected by the Arab spring process. We will continue to work together in the context of the G8’s partnership, agreed at the Deauville meeting, to support political and economic transitions in countries such as Egypt and Tunisia. We welcome Turkey's efforts to share its experience of the political process by inviting those involved in the revolution in Egypt to meet its political parties.
In Syria, which I will come to in more detail in a moment, Turkey is a vital partner. We are working closely together as part of the Friends of Syria group, and at the United Nations, to increase international pressure on the Assad regime to end its violence and improve access for humanitarian organisations. Turkey can also play an important role in encouraging Iran to negotiate seriously on its nuclear problem, and we look forward to the prospect of further talks there.
I come to the very difficult and grim situation in Syria. President Assad and his regime have refused to recognise a central truth. The UN estimates that since protests began in Syria in March 2011, more than 7,500 people—I believe 8,000 is the latest figure—have been killed, including 380 children. The Syrian regime is engaged in a brutal campaign of repression through widespread and systematic human rights violations, including torture and the rape of men, women and children. The registered Syrian refugee population in neighbouring countries now exceeds 30,000, although the actual figure could be much higher, and it is believed that more than 200,000 people have been displaced. We continue to play a prominent role in international efforts to convince the Syrian regime that it must end its brutality. There is no room in the Middle East of the future for butchery of this kind.
We seek a robust Human Rights Council resolution on Syria in Geneva, and are working hard in New York to get the UN Security Council to put its weight behind efforts to bring peace and improve humanitarian access. We continue to call for an immediate end to the brutal repression of human rights, and demand an end to all violence and immediate and unhindered humanitarian access. We support the work of Kofi Annan, the special envoy of the UN and Arab League, to bring about an end to the violence and facilitate a political transition. We also support the efforts of the noble Baroness, Lady Amos, the current Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, who is known to us all. We call on the Syrian Government to implement their commitments to the Arab League by stopping military action, withdrawing their forces from towns and cities, releasing political prisoners and allowing the media access. We strongly endorse what the Arab League and Kofi Annan are doing. The Foreign Secretary recently addressed the House of Commons on the issue and announced the suspension of the service of the British embassy in Damascus and the withdrawal of all diplomatic staff. They have now left Syria. We continue to follow developments on the ground very closely.
I have few minutes remaining, but there is much more to say on the area. We must do all we can to support the people of the region as they build more open and inclusive democratic societies. To this end, we launched the highly praised Arab Partnership Programme to provide both political and economic support to the region. We have committed to provide £110 million over four years. In Egypt and Tunisia, we supported the electoral processes and helped to encourage political debate. I would have liked to share with noble Lords much more what we are doing in facing these issues.
The old dangers also remain, and with your Lordships’ permission I shall return to them at the end of the debate. Obviously, the Middle East peace process remains central; the conflict there is poisoning the whole scene in the Middle East. Our priority remains to bring the parties to negotiation. The ongoing Iranian nuclear crisis remains a cause of a very grave concern, and we are 100 per cent committed to a peaceful resolution of the issue if we can achieve it. There will be further talks with the Iranians, although a time has yet to be fixed.
In the Middle East mosaic there are of course many blemishes and stains. We make no secret of our wish to see gradual reform in great states such as Saudi Arabia. However, we should also note the way in which the states of the Gulf work closely with this country. Everywhere in the region there is genuine and deep affection for Britain. That is why some of the GCC states show a strong interest in links with the Commonwealth, while their trade and business interests turn increasingly to the east and the rising powers of Asia.
I have no more time to expand on what we are doing and intend to do. We can be proud of our role, our diplomacy and our expertise deployed throughout the region—especially, if I may say so, that of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office under the inspired leadership of my right honourable friend the Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary, William Hague. I look forward greatly in the coming debate to hearing your Lordships’ insights into these tumultuous, dangerous and challenging events. I beg to move.
Lord Howell of Guildford
My Lords, as I and, I think, others will have anticipated, this has been a debate of many points of view and many insights, drawn on your Lordships’ colossal experience of dealing with the enormous range of countries that we have covered. I hope that I shall be forgiven straight away if I do not cover satisfactorily all these nations with their situations of change and tumult, but time is the limiting factor.
It was the noble Lord, Lord Williams—who obviously spoke with unique experience in the light of his past employments—who called Syria the eye of the storm. He brought home the ghastly complexity of the issue there and made a grim but, I hope, a realistic comparison with the endless tangles in Bosnia, which took years to unravel. I hope that in a sense his pessimism is wrong when he speaks about the years that it will take for us to see settlement in Syria, but we have to be realistic and he may of course be right.
Many other noble Lords spoke on that issue and I shall try to divide the 20 minutes that I have into commenting mainly on Syria, Iran and the Middle East peace process, and I shall also answer a range of detailed questions from my noble friend Lord Avebury and others. I shall see whether I can get that all in.
The noble Baroness, Lady Symons, in a very well informed speech, asked whether we were liaising with the Arab League. The answer is yes. On Syria, the Friends of Syria mechanism, which has met already and meets next, I think, in Istanbul, is an opportunity for constant dialogue—not merely liaising—with the Arab League about its position. Of course, there are some differences of emphasis within the league, as we know, between those in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, who are more forward in suggesting direct help for the opposition groups, and others who are not so certain. We want the Arab League to formulate its views clearly, and we are working with it at every point to address the issue.
It would be incredible if I said that any of us could see exactly how the Syrian scene will work out. Atrocities have been committed that have appalled everybody; the refugee problem is crowding in at the Turkish border, with talk of mines being laid by the Syrian armed forces; it is clear that Iran is helping to import weapons to support the official Syrian army; and it is absolutely clear from the vivid reports of the noble Baroness, Lady Amos, and others that Baba Amr and other places have been utterly flattened and destroyed in a pattern that is unforgivable.
The noble Lord, Lord Hannay, rightly asked about the position of those who have committed atrocities, and about possible charges in the ICC. I must be careful in the precise words I use to answer him because there are legal constraints. However, as I told your Lordships the other day, we certainly would not rule out referral to the ICC, as suggested by Mrs Pillay. The COI report does not specifically recommend such a referral; nor does the Human Rights Council have the power to refer cases. It would be for the UN Security Council to refer the situation in Syria to the ICC prosecutor. I am told—this is in addition to the point that I made the other day—that it could take anything up to a year before this is clarified.
I have not much to add about the grimness of the situation in Syria. Many excellent and wise points were made by noble Lords. The noble Baroness, Lady Falkner, and the noble Lords, Lord Wright and Lord Chidgey, all spoke about it, and I will not add anything at this stage.
I turn now to Iran. The noble Baroness, Lady Deech, said that it was the great shadow over the area, and of course it is. The universal opinion that clearly comes from almost all sides of this debate is that if we reach the stage of bombing and violence it will be a failure of policy. All options remain on the table; we must be realistic. We have a twin-track policy of putting considerable pressure on Iran through financial measures, including the withdrawal of SWIFT facilities that was reported in the press today and was referred to by one noble Lord. We also have in place the oil embargo, which has its problems but is clearly closing in on Iran. That is the pressure side of the track.
The other part of the track is that there must be engagement and talks. Iran has said that it will come back to talks. The noble Baroness, Lady Ashton, who has taken a very forward and skilled lead in dealing with the matter on behalf of the EU3+3 and the western powers, is negotiating on the timing of a meeting. We can all see the danger; this could be a trap. There could be a lot of talk and meanwhile Iran would plunge ahead with its weaponisation, which would lead to a cascade of proliferation in the whole region and potential disasters of almost unimaginable proportions. That must be prevented. That is our twin track. Firing missiles at Iran would be regrettable at any stage; but as the noble Lord, Lord Haskel, said, doing so now would definitely be the wrong course. The debate about whether Israel could act independently is one that we watch with great unease. We would regard it as a disaster to see any kind of unilateral action of that sort at this stage.
The noble Lord, Lord Anderson, asked what if, despite everything, weaponisation—not merely the capability to build nuclear weapons, but the production of them—goes ahead in Iran. This is hypothetical. It would, of course, be a statement that we had failed, but that is just the put-down answer. This is a danger. Could we go in a completely different direction as the noble Lords, Lord Ramsbotham and Lord Hannay, mentioned? Statesmen must turn their minds towards the ideal of moving to a WMD-free or a nuclear-free zone. All international leaders have made statements saying that that is what they would like to see, but we have to be totally realistic about the difficulties and challenges that would present. I am afraid I have to say from this Dispatch Box that at the moment that lies very far away, almost in the dream category of where one could go if the present twin-track strategy, which we are determined to pursue, did not succeed.
The noble Lord, Lord Hylton, spoke about a different kind of win-win strategy. These are ideas that must be looked at seriously and kept on the table, but the main strategy that we are sticking to at the moment is intense pressure on Iran to bring it to the table, which is now on its way to being step one. The step beyond that is to get it to come clean on its nuclear activities at present and its nuclear military aspirations and to deter it from them.
The third major category of discussion in the debate was to do with the Middle East peace process for Palestine and Israel. We all quote to each other the adage that everything in the Middle East is connected to everything else. Clearly, the peace process and some kind of progress on it, if we can discern any, if there is any hope at all, is connected with the Iran situation, the Lebanon situation and the entire balance of activity and dangers throughout the Middle East.
Let me turn to the MEPP and try to answer some of the questions that were raised by a range of noble Lords. I will not name them all. We are aware that Fatah and Hamas have signed an agreement that President Abbas will become Prime Minister. It is too early to make a detailed assessment of these developments. We will continue to follow the situation on Palestinian reconciliation very closely. Any technocratic Government should be composed of figures who are committed to the principles set by Mahmoud Abbas in Cairo in May last year, who uphold the principle of non-violence, are committed to a negotiated two-state solution and accept the previous agreements of the PLA. We have made it consistently clear that we will engage any Palestinian Government who show through their words and actions that they are committed to the above principles.
We welcome the effort to hold Palestinian elections this year. It will be very important that all sides work to ensure that conditions are in place for the holding of free and fair elections. I know there have been reports that Hamas has shifted its emphasis. Our policy is clear: it must renounce violence, recognise Israel and accept previously signed agreements. Hamas must make credible movement towards these conditions, which remain the benchmark by which its intentions will be judged. That is what we want to make clear on that situation.
We are thankful that the Egyptians have brokered a ceasefire in the recent period of very high tensions. One should not forget that a vast range of missiles, some of very high technical capability, have been rained on Israel by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other organisations. Luckily, the Iron Dome technology of anti-missile defence by Israel seems to have prevented 90 per cent of them reaching their targets. Nevertheless, it is obviously intolerable from Israel’s point of view that that should be the challenge. Of course, it will also be said that Israel has applied its force the other way. There is always a balance and there are always two sides to these arguments. It is impossible to say anything that does not slide one way or another.
Baroness Tonge
I thank the Minister for giving way but I must point out—I hope that he agrees—that the raining of missiles on southern Israel from Gaza always follows a targeted assassination by the Israeli Air Force. He may not have heard—but I certainly did and I can send him a transcript—the BBC World Service interviewing a teacher in southern Israel who confirmed that fact and said that they always knew when missiles were going to come over because it was always after a targeted assassination.
Lord Howell of Guildford
I will not go further into the argument of where it stands. There is of course an earlier riposte to that. Perhaps for once I could just stand on the observation, with which I hope my noble friend would agree, that—I think that the words of Mr Netanyahu were to this effect—if there is quietness on one side, there will be quietness on the other side. There were targeted assassinations; there are constant threats of the elimination of Israel; there are these ripostes by rockets; and there is the position of Hamas, which has stood aside from some of these rocket attacks. All these are pieces of the jigsaw. I will not go further in the judgment because, wherever one stands, it offends one side or the other.
I should say a word about Palestine’s membership of the United Nations. The UK considers that Palestine largely fulfils the criteria for UN membership. We will not vote against the application because of the progress that the Palestinian leadership has made towards meeting the criteria but nor can we vote for it while our primary objective remains the return to negotiations. Currently, there is no proposal for a UN General Assembly resolution. If President Abbas returns to the General Assembly, the UK will use its vote in a way that makes a return to negotiations more rather than less likely. That is where we stand in answer to the points raised by the noble Lord, Lord Hannay. Those are the three major issues, although they are not by any means the only issues that have been discussed throughout this very lively debate.
The noble Lord, Lord Avebury, is certainly owed a comment on Bahrain. He asked about the unconditional release of Abdulhadi al-Khawaja and other leading activists. We are working with the Danish Government and the EU on this case. We and our EU partners are urging the Bahraini authorities to deal with the cases of all those currently in prison quickly and transparently. As to whether we will ask the Bahrainis to start negotiations with victims on compensation et cetera, we understand that the Bahraini authorities are discussing compensation for those affected by the unrest during the year. My colleague, Alistair Burt, has urged reconciliation and has been immensely active in this field. We have also urged the Bahraini authorities to deal with all the remaining cases of those in prison quickly and transparently. We remain convinced that meaningful dialogue between the Government and the Opposition is the best way forward for Bahrain to return it to the stability that it deserves. Will we urge the regime to allow freedom of expression, without which reform is not possible? My answer is that the United Kingdom supports freedom of speech and expression in all countries and we have made this clear to the Bahraini authorities.
I do not expect these answers fully to satisfy those who are concerned about what has been happening in Bahrain, but we believe that progress is being made. There is evidence of a serious commitment to dialogue and we will continue to work on that. We are far from satisfied or in agreement with everything that has been done or is being done, but we believe that the trend is positive and we will keep pressing.
In a fascinating contribution, the noble Baroness, Lady Deech, asked among many other things about the Chilcot inquiry. The inquiry has advised the Government that it will need at least until the summer of 2012 to complete its report and be ready for publication. The noble Lord, Lord Bew, asked two questions of great profundity and said that I had not mentioned Turkey and the European Union. I had not because there are so many other things to mention and I did not think that we could get into that aspect. It remains our view that Turkey’s application to membership of the European Union makes sense for the future, but obviously it is up to Turkey. If it decides in its repositioning in the new Middle East that membership is no longer a priority, that is for the Turkish Government.
The noble Lord also asked me the great and fundamental question: is the whole of the process that we are discussing going to weaken or strengthen moves towards democracy in the future? The honest answer is that we hope that it will. We are optimistic and we believe in the long term. Many countries may have to go through Islamic phases, but this will take us in the right direction. Even so, there will be many problems along the way.
The noble Baroness, Lady Nicholson, told us about the Yemen and her rather frightening experiences there, which we read about in the papers. We are extremely grateful to her for the role that she has played and for her words about the British and other ambassadors. Indeed, I made some comments in my opening speech on that point. The noble Lord, Lord Rosser, asked me a string of questions, which I have not had time to answer in full. He asked about the role of DfID and the work that we are doing. The department is putting enormous effort into the Arab partnership, including an economic facility to support inclusive, sustainable economic growth, focusing primarily on Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Jordan and Libya.
We cannot possibly predict what the political landscape in the region will look like even one year from now. One certainty is that we need the major nations to work in concert, which means that somehow we have to see more co-operation from Russia and China to achieve real progress. Of course my right honourable friend the Foreign Secretary has been working day and night with his colleagues on trying to move towards the UN resolution that Russia may approve. We hope that China may then follow. Positive Russian assistance on Syria is essential and we must have a better contribution from that great country.
I believe that the people of the region have made absolutely clear their desire for respect for their own nations and for themselves, and for a stronger voice in their future. Many of them have been extraordinarily bold and brave in their actions, almost unbelievably so. Now we must show the same boldness by remaining positive, constructive and ready to assist, without interference, to help the onward march of change towards what we hope will be better times for the region and its remarkable people.