Eastern Mediterranean: Turkey, Cyprus and Syria
(10 years, 6 months ago)
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Lord Sharkey
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what is their assessment of the situation in the eastern Mediterranean with particular reference to Turkey, Cyprus and Syria.
Lord Sharkey (LD)
My Lords, the Question calls for an assessment of the situation in Libya, Egypt, Gaza, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey and Cyprus. Not a single one of those countries is now without significant problems—problems which are a direct threat to the larger regional stability and an indirect threat, at least, to the West. Some of the problems are long standing; some are of recent origin; some are the consequence, or at least the aftermath, of western military intervention.
I start with Libya. Here, a tyrant who oppressed his people was removed by the power of the West. We supported the idea of bringing democracy and pluralism. We had stability and security as objectives. None of that happened, except for the removal of the tyrant. There is no real democracy, no pluralism, except in the very worst sense, no stability and no security for the people. The country is left in the grip of civil war. Can we argue that intervention was beneficial there?
Then there is Egypt. Once seen as the most promising instance of the Arab spring, the country has reverted to what looks like and feels like a pre-uprising Government.
Gaza, after North Korea, has the world’s largest confinement of people and the longest lasting. Has western policy improved the conditions of the people there?
Israel is a flashpoint for conflict locally, regionally and internationally. It is a close ally of America and the West, yet an unrepentant and serial flouter of UN resolutions. Has western policy helped the course of peace and reconciliation here? Has it reduced the dangers that the Israeli situation has generated and continues to generate?
The people of Lebanon have suffered terribly from civil war and civil strife, all connected with the root Israel/Palestinian problem. April’s House of Commons report on Lebanon made the point that instability is increasing in the country, with cross-border fighting and armed clashes between Sunnis and Shias. In addition to all this, there are more than 1 million Syrian refugees in Lebanon, a country of 4.5 million people. It is to our credit that we have already given more than £110 million to help the country with the refugee crisis. None the less, no one would pretend that the current state of affairs in Lebanon is stable. No one would pretend that the current situation is what western policy would have wanted.
As for Syria, the world knows how truly dreadful the situation is. There is in progress a three-cornered civil war. There are the supporters of Assad, the moderate opposition and the jihadist opposition, all of whom fight each other, and of course there is the appalling and widespread use of barrel bombs by the Assad Government against their own population. All this has inflicted and continues to inflict death and destruction on the entire population on a truly dreadful scale.
According to the UNHCR, 9.3 million Syrians need humanitarian assistance—that is 43% of the entire population. Some 6.3 million of these people have been displaced internally and 2.8 million have fled the country, and the UNHCR expects this figure to rise to 4.1 million by the end of this year. This mass flight places intolerable burdens on neighbouring countries. Jordan, for example, a country of 8 million people and not without its own problems, now has 600,000 Syrian refugees.
The same House of Commons report sets out some of the major criticisms of western policy towards Syria. They range from a failure to recognise the need for negotiation with Assad to western encouragement and then lack of support for an uprising, to a lack of support for the moderate opposition and an absence of military intervention.
Whatever the failings of western policy, it is surely clear that the current situation in Syria is unsustainable, getting worse and a direct threat to western interests. Here in the UK, Parliament has decided against military intervention—in my view, very wisely—but obviously we have not been inactive. We are the second largest contributor of humanitarian aid, with £600 million committed to date. This aid is a credit to UK foreign policy, but it is a patch. It is necessary but it is obviously not a means of bringing long-term stability to the region.
Then there is Turkey—a NATO member, an accession candidate and a good friend of the UK. It is now host to three quarters of a million Syrian refugees in its most sensitive border areas. Since independence, Turkey has endured long periods of unstable government, periods of military rule and very slow economic growth. All that began to change in 2002 with the victory of the AK party. The country has prospered. It has become a true regional power and seems to have moved past the possibility of military intervention in political life. The regime has demonstrated that a large, Islamic country can operate a democratic and economically successful society.
All this, of course, is critical to the interests of the West. It is directly in our interests to have a strong, prosperous and stable Turkey as a NATO member and committed to democratic values. But Turkey is now under immense strain. Until very recently, Turkey had been largely driven by an admiration of and respect for western values. This admiration and respect is in decline. Turkey continues to imprison journalists and restricts freedom of speech. Its Executive interfere in the police and in the judiciary, and their tone with their own people has grown increasingly hectoring and peremptory. There is growing civil unrest. There is the unresolved Kurdish question, which is not made easier by the events in Iraq. Turkey appears to be turning away from the EU. Many Turks see the prospect of EU membership as neither realistic nor desirable. The glacial progress of EU accession negotiation feeds this point of view.
As a friend of Turkey, I am very glad to be able to say that Her Majesty’s Government remain strongly in favour of Turkey’s EU membership. We must continue to make the case to our EU partners for Turkey’s membership. Turkey sits at the fulcrum between the East and the West, as it always has. It needs the West’s encouragement, empathy and help as it faces internal difficulties and very great difficulties on its borders with Iraq and Syria. The West needs to be sensitive to Turkey’s alarm at the prospect of a Kurdish state straddling these countries and to the prospect of a prolonged Sunni/Shia conflict in the region drawing it into dangerous interventions in Iraq and in Syria. The West needs to help or, in our case, continue to help Turkey.
Where we can help to solve problems, we should. Cyprus is a case in point. The island has been divided for more than 40 years. In those 40 years, talks for reunification have been an enduring feature of political life, without any success. The Annan plan of 2004 was the last and most comprehensive proposal for a settlement. It was enthusiastically accepted by the Turkish Cypriots and comprehensively rejected by the Greek Cypriots. The reasons for rejection have been intensely analysed. Essentially, the Greek Cypriot political elite and the Greek Cypriot people saw no benefit to them in the proposals, so they voted against.
We are now in the middle of a renewed negotiation. Many see this as the best and final hope for reunification. It is clear this time that both sides must see the benefits to them of any proposal for reunification or—as the Turkish Cypriot chief negotiator, Dr Kudret Ozersay, puts it—they must at least see the real harm to their interests that rejection would bring. The negotiations are by Cypriots for Cypriots, as they should be, although the benign interest of the UK and recently of the US has undeniably been of some help.
I particularly commend the FCO for its bold step in inviting the Turkish Cypriot leader and his chief negotiator to London. This is the first time that an official invitation has gone to Northern Cyprus and it is a helpful and very imaginative step on the part of the Government. I urge the FCO to continue to do all that it can to provide any welcome assistance in and around these negotiations. Cyprus is, after all, a Commonwealth country and an EU member state, and we are a guarantor state. I ask the Minister to tell the House this afternoon what steps the Government are taking to help and what progress is being made in the nomination of a UN replacement for Alexander Downer. Does she agree that it is vital that a choice is made very soon?
In conclusion, I return to some of the larger questions raised in the summary of the situation in the eastern Mediterranean countries. It is clear that the whole region is unstable and becoming more so; that we are witnessing a religious war between Sunni and Shia; and that the situation in Iraq and in Syria has profound consequences for the whole region and for the West. This weekend, Tony Blair argued that the situation in Iraq is not the consequence of our illegal invasion, which strikes me as nonsense. But it is surely indisputable that the current state of affairs is not desirable and not in conformity with western policy objectives.
If stability, the rule of law and justice are the policy objectives, western policy has not delivered very much of them. I acknowledge our outstanding humanitarian efforts and our belated military restraint. I acknowledge too our occasional willingness to be bold. Today’s announcement about our relationship with Iran is a case in point. But I ask the simple question: what else can we do? If stability, the rule of law and peace, and an end to cruel oppression are among the West’s policy objectives for the region, what do we do now that is different?
Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)
My Lords, I feel privileged to follow the masterly survey by the noble Lord, Lord Sharkey, of this tumultuous and fragile region. I think he is quite right, while taking us around the whole area, to avoid going too deeply at this stage into the even greater turmoil of the Syria-Iraq situation and the beginnings of the end of the post-Ottoman settlement. That is a major issue with huge implications for this country and requires in due course a full day’s debate in your Lordships’ House on all the implications that flow from it.
I will concentrate on a narrower aspect today, and simply ask: what can we in the West salvage and what further can we pick out in the way of a winning thread for the UK’s strategic interests from this general situation in which there is so much turmoil and grief and, I fear, more grief to come?
One slightly more cheerful aspect is that the region as a whole is changing very fast. Issues which seemed intractable only a few months or years ago are beginning to change. One aspect of that new scene is the energy dimension in the eastern Mediterranean, with significant new gas resources discovered off Cyprus, Israel, Lebanon and offshore from the Nile Delta, in which Turkey is also very interested. I think that the Lebanon aspect has to be put on the backburner for the moment, regrettably, because of its political difficulties. It does not yet have a president and its politics are very tricky indeed. As the noble Lord, Lord Starkey, reminded us, it has been almost submerged by a colossal influx of Syrian refugees. I do not think it will be able to carry forward new policies for developing its offshore resources, but the others can. Israel has gone fast ahead already with gas from the Tamar and, shortly, the Leviathan fields in very large quantities, which could be exported through an Israeli pipeline, possibly through Cyprus, north and south, into Turkey or by other means. So there are new chess pieces on the board quite suddenly. I should like the Minister and her colleagues to think about how they can be rearranged and what could be gained from them.
What are the new pieces on the board? First, Turkey continues to want to join the EU, but it wants a reformed EU and finds the present, protracted process, which has gone on and on with chapters opening and closing, humiliating. Secondly, both Northern Cyprus and the republic want to be in on the gas developments when they come. They may be anticipating the benefits a little, but the gas is there. Thirdly, Egypt also wants access to gas in its region, the Nile Delta. Indeed, Israel is now supplying gas to Egypt, which is a remarkable turnaround from the situation that used to exist, when Egypt was supplying gas to Israel.
Anything which helps Egypt at this stage to meet its colossal economic difficulties and which stabilises it is something we should support. Some of us have just had a chance to talk to General Fattah al-Sisi, the new president. It is clear that if Egypt can be a rock in this region, there is a chance that some kind of stability can be injected into the region generally, but if Egypt fails, we are looking into a black pit. After the disastrous wobble that some people had over Mr Morsi, who was clearly a major setback for Egypt's recovery, we should now be quite clear in our support for General al-Sisi.
Israel wants to diversify its export routes. The north and south Governments in Cyprus want to move, as the noble Lord, Lord Sharkey, reminded us, but negotiations are extremely slow. I had a chance to hold some talks with Mr Özersay, the TRNC negotiator, and he explained to me some of the difficulties the other day, but there is a will to make progress.
All this creates a possibility of a sort of grand bargain for the region in which Britain could play a useful and even beneficial part. Britain should support Turkey on EU reform. We are natural allies in wanting to be in the European Union, at least from my point of view, but it needs to be a reformed European Union. I think practically everyone is agreed on that.
We could ask Turkey to be supportive and to encourage TRNC to move positively, as it is already trying to do, and we could urge the republic in the south to be readier to share gas with the north and with Turkey. We could ensure that British companies are fully involved. Just as a warning, Russia is already there, signing agreements with Israel and obviously very involved in Cyprus and in its recovery from its financial woes. We could remind Cyprus that it is a member of the Commonwealth and to look for its needs for finance to the rich Commonwealth countries for investment, which it badly needs. I do not think that Cyprus will get enough gas to build an LNG export plant as it hopes, but certainly some gas developments are possible. Some gas could come from Israel for export.
There are plenty of snags and territorial sub-sea border disputes in all that I am saying. It is not straightforward at all. But it is just possible that out of it the Cyprus reunification process, which some of us have been involved in for more than half a century, could at last begin to go forward. That would extract one win out of a generally deteriorating situation in which of course the so-called Arab spring is turning out to be far from a spring and more a scene of Arab anarchy and difficulty which we now have to tackle with renewed skill and diplomacy—of which Britain has a plentiful supply. We should use it and not be ashamed of the fact that we know rather more about this region than almost any other country.
Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)
My Lords, I congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Sharkey, both on his choice of subject and on his tour of the horizon. I also have great pleasure as always in following the noble Lord, Lord Howell. I make two points on the question as drafted. Asked for an assessment of the eastern Mediterranean, I am less optimistic than the noble Lord, Lord Howell. I think that the answer should be “Dire, with few signs of hope”. Clearly, the question was drafted before the recent advances of ISIS in Iraq, which will perhaps be a day’s debate at some stage. Not to mention Iraq and to particularise the other three contraries is like Hamlet without the Prince of Denmark. It shows the pace of change and the unexpected and unforeseen in the Middle East.
I am also a little puzzled why these three countries were particularised. What is the nexus between Cyprus, Syria and Turkey? All are so very different. Perhaps the gas fields are one element of the nexus, as the noble Lord, Lord Howell, said. Perhaps in the Middle East all problems are interconnected. Cyprus is a good friend and a member of the European Union and the Commonwealth. Our hopes are at last renewed of a settlement with President Anastasiades who was of course a yes man in the 2004 referendum. Syria is torn in so many different directions and the military balance is now appearing to shift a little in favour of the Assad regime. There is a desperate refugee and IDP problem.
Turkey is moderate and a good ally although there is currently some slippage in terms of human rights. We have to pose the problem: is the aim of EU membership still realistic? Are we perhaps moving—because also of the cooling in Turkey itself—to something close to Chancellor Merkel’s idea of a privileged relationship? Perhaps the freedom of movement provision is one of the key obstacles. Certainly, I have spoken to Turkish businessmen who still wish to be part of the European Union and recognise, given the sensitivities of immigration today, that the freedom of movement may be put on hold for some considerable time.
Overall, the picture is depressing. I recall an article in yesterday's Financial Times by Richard Haass entitled, An Abrupt Awakening to the Realities of a Recast Middle East.
He concluded:
“The only thing that is certain is the old Middle East is disintegrating. The question is what takes its place”,
so I venture a few brief reflections.
First, traditionally Israel is blamed for all the troubles in the region. Clearly, looking at the current turbulence, even the most arch-critics of Israel cannot find its fingerprints in all the many problems which are self-standing. So far as the Middle East peace process is concerned, the Kerry initiative is dead. We commend his valiant efforts but what will follow? Will there be any chance of EU unity, as there was not over the Palestine question at the UN General Assembly 20 months ago? We understand the Israeli priority of security, yet part of the problem is posed by asking the question of Prime Minister Netanyahu: what is your aim or vision for the region in 10 years’ time? Answer there is none, probably, because he simply wishes to keep the ship afloat. He is a man with no serious wish to look long and that is part of the problem, apart from the obvious fact that there are no interlocutors on the other side with whom he can seriously deal.
Secondly, history is not dead. As a Welsh nonconformist, I remind myself from time to time that Armageddon is sited somewhere in Israel, in Har Megiddo. It is important to understand that each of the countries has its own burden of history. I recall when I first came across the Sykes-Picot agreement of 1916 and was told by Syrians that in respect of Lebanon, “We are two countries but one people”. I ask the Minister: is it now clear that we accept that a redrawing of the map of the region is in prospect? Are the old colonial frontiers, which ignored geography and demography, now being redrawn by force of arms? Is that development necessarily against our interest and it is possible that redrawn, more rational boundaries will be more stable? What prospects are there for a division of Iraq and Syria on the lines provoked by the jihadists and where will the Kurds fit in? I hope that the National Security Council and the planners in the Foreign Office—those who ponder imponderables—will be looking rather carefully at possible scenarios in the region.
My third reflection is that the hopes raised by the Arab spring have clearly been dashed. We see signs of reappraisal now in respect of President Assad. I recall that the noble Lord, Lord Wright, was almost on his own in the past but now some, at least, are seeing him as the lesser of two evils. Given what is happening in Iraq perhaps Saddam Hussein, with all his violence, may also have been the lesser of two evils. How does the Foreign Office respond to this? The Arab spring began in Tunisia, which is now the only good news country in the region. Why? It is because it was prepared to compromise and seek in some ways a consensus. By contrast, Egypt is proceeding very much in the other direction. Just as President Morsi was not inclusive so, alas, the Muslim Brotherhood which, like it or not, are a significant force in Egypt, have been totally marginalised and their activists imprisoned. There may be stability but it is a short-term stability.
One thing is clear. We in the UK and Europe have interests in the region in terms of migration and terrorism from the jihadists, who may return. There are also humanitarian interests. How do we respond? Yes, it is by being realistic and recognising that outsiders have a relatively marginal role. We should recognise, too, that intervention is not in fashion nowadays and that our financial contribution will be limited compared with that of the Gulf and the IMF. Our contribution will surely be in governance and technical issues while encouraging, so far as we are able, inclusiveness in those countries.
Iran is central to the regional problems, and I welcome the Government’s initiative. The nuclear talks began yesterday. They have to finish by 20 July and then there is likely to be a rollover, beginning again in October. There is the problem of encouraging Prime Minister al-Maliki to be more inclusive, a need to keep Jordan, weak and burdened by refugees, as stable as possible, and a need, pace Ukraine, to engage Russia in the region and to work with it. The noble Lord, Lord Sharkey, particularised three important countries. Turkey, of course, is a moderate NATO ally and a key player. The assessment must surely be that there are relatively few signs of hope: the foundations in the Middle East are shaking. Overall, there is a need for far-sighted diplomacy on our part and that of our European and US partners. We need to seek to build bridges so far as we are able and encourage a spirit of inclusiveness and consensus in a region which, alas, knows little of it.
Baroness Hussein-Ece (LD)
My Lords, I, too, congratulate my noble friend Lord Sharkey on securing this very timely and important debate. I shall not touch too much on the situation in Iraq because, as we know, the situation there is fast-moving and things will probably have moved on by the time I sit down.
Therefore, I shall focus mainly on Turkey, which is too big and influential a power to be ignored. No matter how much its relations with key countries in the region are strained—which can at times make Turkey appear irrelevant—no country in the region or in the West can genuinely say that they are not taking into account Turkey’s stance while shaping their policies.
Turkey’s successful economic policies have allowed more Turks than ever to share in the country’s prosperity and join the ranks of the middle class. This middle-class emergence, enabled by the AKP, has changed the nature of politics in Turkey as more are demanding a liberal democracy.
Turkey’s huge economic success over the past decade has been greatly admired and respected around the world, and nowhere more than in the Middle East, where it is seen as a role model for many countries going through their own Arab spring in an attempt to shed their dictators. It is a secular Muslim-majority country which is democratic.
It is not that long ago that Turkey’s established foreign policy was “zero problems with its neighbours”. This now appears a distant aspiration with the recent shattering events that we have seen. Turkey’s geostrategic positioning and its involvement in developments from Iraq to Syria and from Afghanistan to Egypt make it a power to be reckoned with.
In 2012, I attended the Ditchley Foundation lecture given by the Turkish Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu. He started memorably recalling Winston Churchill’s words:
“The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see”.
He said that it was impossible to establish an order for the future without relating this closely to the past and the present. He emphasised the importance of history and geography as two permanent parameters for any country which could not be changed. He went on to say that he was well aware that his statement about the aim of Turkish foreign policy being “zero problems with her neighbours” had been criticised as Utopian, but he had, rightly, wanted to create a new and less fearful mentality. He said that neither Russians nor Greeks—nor should Armenians—simply be identified as big enemies for Turkey. He acknowledged that there were now serious problems with Syria—we should remember that this was three years ago—but they were not Turkey’s fault, and he felt that they did not invalidate his approach. Turkey wanted to be on the right side of history, with the Syrian people.
Turkey has for a long time been pursuing a proactive policy in its neighbourhood, including in the Balkans and central Asia as well as in the Middle East. She has actively pursued new agreements with Greece, although negotiations with the EU have, sadly, gone nowhere. However, Turkey continues to pursue a proactive policy in all other parts of the world, opening new embassies and developing relationships in Africa, Latin America and the Far East.
As Turkey grows and becomes a more dynamic economy with a dynamic middle class, it needs new markets. Until 2009, Turkey had had only 12 embassies in Africa. Now it has added another 21 and more are planned. The only foreign embassy in Somalia is that of Turkey. There are half a dozen new Turkish embassies in Latin America.
Turkey is also active in the G20 and has become a contributor to the IMF rescue packages rather than, as in the past, a recipient of its loans. For Turkey, what seemed Utopian in 2002 has now become more of a reality. Turkey is using its geography and history in a non-defensive and influential way. It has demonstrated relative stability at a time when the region around it has been in upheaval. Turks do much better because they have grown economically, while the world around them has melted down both in the Middle East with the Arab spring as well as in southern Europe with the eurozone crisis. The Turkish Government broke with the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and supported the opposition. For the past three years they have had to deal with a deadly civil war on their borders. That has put a strain on relations with Tehran and Moscow, which are both supporters of Assad.
The scale of the Syrian crisis is staggering: 600,000 Syrians are in Jordan; more than 1 million are in Turkey; and 6.5 million are displaced. Among the refugee population in Jordan, 90 people are more than 100 years old and 270 are more than 90 years old. The challenges remain enormous. We here in the safety of the United Kingdom cannot imagine what it must be like to be at the forefront of such a situation. At times, it is all too easy for us to call on what should or should not be done from the comfort of our country.
In April, the International Crisis Group reported:
“Turkey has built for its Syrian guests the world’s best shelters, but they are expensive, temporary and not sufficient for the continuous flow”,
and that:
“Continuous refugee flows from Syria are stretching Turkey’s capacities and necessitate long-term adjustments as well as stronger international engagement to better share the burden”.
Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan’s recent visit to Iran symbolised a shift towards Tehran and a shift in Ankara’s Middle East foreign policy. He declared a desire to stand shoulder to shoulder with Iran in combating terrorism, driven by Turkey’s evolving policy toward Syria. That is significant in terms of its implications for the Syrian conflict and for the region’s landscape, as both countries have the ability to influence the course of future events throughout the Middle East. Since I wrote that, it is interesting, given the recent crisis with ISIS, how the US has now followed the very same policy.
Throughout the 20th century, the Turkish Republic always focused and oriented itself towards the West and away from the Middle East. Iran was therefore not a central focus of Turkey’s cold war foreign policy. However, the Iranian revolution of 1979 unfavourably created tensions. Turkey’s ruling secular elite viewed Iran’s regime in an unfavourable manner. That perception was in part fuelled by Ankara’s belief that Tehran sponsored terrorist groups in Turkey with the intention of exporting the Islamic revolution to neighbouring countries. The Syrian conflict brought unprecedented tension to the Turkish-Iranian relationship. Turkey assumed wrongly that Bashar al-Assad would suffer a fate similar to that of Mubarak, Gaddafi and Ben Ali.
Prior to the Arab spring, the Turkish model was hailed across the region as a prototype for blending moderate Islamic politics in a democratic framework. Many polls found that Prime Minister Erdogan was the most popular political leader on the Arab street. Ankara’s evolving Syrian strategy has become more focused on the economic and security threats posed by continued conflict in Syria, with Turkey dealing with the menace posed by foreign jihadist militants who have established a presence on both sides of the Turkish-Syrian border.
My noble friend Lord Sharkey and others mentioned how, despite recent movement, the EU’s dealings with Turkey have been disappointing with so many chapters kept closed since 2009. I hope that the EU will start to treat Turkey in a more mature way than it has in the past.
I have a minute to say something about Cyprus. I was there a few weeks ago and I echo what my noble friends Lord Howell and Lord Sharkey said. The mood music does not look too encouraging. However, as someone who has been involved in the region and is from a Turkish Cypriot background, we live in eternal hope that one day there will be a peaceful settlement where the equal rights and prosperity of both communities will be enshrined in a peaceful solution.
Baroness Morgan of Ely (Lab)
I congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Sharkey, on securing this debate and on ensuring that we maintain our attention on the unfolding situation occurring in this difficult and sensitive part of the world. Events in the past week have underlined how vulnerable and unstable the political situation is in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. The one thing that has become increasingly clear is that instability in one country in this region is bound to spill over into other countries, with violence and masses of refugees and displaced people—some of whom join up with extremist groups causing chaos in the region—fleeing their countries.
We must be extremely vigilant and do all that we can to ensure that the region does not fall further into sectarian violence, so that we end up with religious communities who have previously tolerated each other being forced to choose sides by extremists who have an interest in fuelling the situation. Ultimately, what is important is that minorities in any country are treated with respect. I will focus my comments on the three countries mentioned in the Question although I must admit, like my noble friend Lord Anderson, that I was a little puzzled by why these three specific ones were chosen.
The situation of Syria continues to produce victims by the million. The horrific statistics that the noble Lord, Lord Sharkey, pointed out underlined that. The UN stopped counting the number of dead in July last year when they reached the figure of 100,000. Millions of refugees have sought security in neighbouring countries and hundreds of thousands have been internally displaced, struggling to survive because of the widespread destruction of basic services and with vital infrastructure in a state of near collapse. Neighbouring countries, already suffering from a lack of political or economic stability, are reeling from the impact of the Syrian conflict as refugees continue to flow in.
As the conflict drags on, the inability of those neighbouring countries to cover the basic needs of refugees and the local population could easily result in a further aggravation of the humanitarian crisis. While the UK Government have been forthcoming in their support for humanitarian aid, it is worth asking what they are doing to encourage other countries to step up and take their share of responsibility. Will Her Majesty’s Government support a fresh donor conference urgently to secure the additional funds, and if not can the Minister set out for the Committee the mechanism by which she judges that the funding gap in relation to humanitarian aid can be better closed?
The question beyond this remains. We can use some sticking plaster for the crisis but the blood will continue to flow, so what is the political strategy in the area beyond aid support? We seem to have seen an end to the Geneva process, and the UN focus seems to be entirely devoted to humanitarian aid. Can the Minister inform us of the latest developments in the London 11 group?
The sham presidential election of Bashar al-Assad in June served to underline how advances by anti-Assad militants have been reversed in recent months. It will be interesting to see how events in Iraq, with the takeover of Mosul and the fear in Iran of the possible consequences, might force a rethink of how Iran reviews the situation in the wider region. The recent developments in Iraq are already affecting Syria. The advance by a few thousand ISIS fighters on Iraq has been carried out from their base in Syria’s Raqqa province.
Turkey remains a central and pivotal country in the eastern Mediterranean. One of my first votes in the European Parliament back in 1994 was on whether we should agree to a customs union. I remember vividly sitting through hours of debate. It was difficult for me because I had just finished being secretary of a branch of Amnesty International, which I joined because I had seen “Midnight Express”, a film produced by my noble friend Lord Puttnam, and I was aware of the country’s dismal record on human rights and the death penalty in particular. Turkey’s human rights record has improved significantly since then, although there have been worrying developments in recent years, with increasing authoritarian tendencies by Prime Minister Erdogan and the sharp slowdown—if not regression—of reforms essential if Turkey wants to attain EU membership. Can the Minister update us on the latest situation regarding Turkish accession to the EU? Recent developments in Turkey which undermine the independence of the judiciary and freedom of expression are of concern, in addition to lawmaking. There is an urgent need for the country to re-engage fully in the reform process in line with European standards.
Turkey has been actively engaged with developments in Syria, hosting the leaders of the political opposition in Istanbul, which has endeared it to some countries in the region and led it to make enemies of others. Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan has alienated most Arab states by siding with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt following the removal of former President Mohamed Morsi. He has also been slow to reconcile with Israel despite a partial apology by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the deaths of Turkish citizens during the Gaza flotilla incident in 2010. At the same time, he is in direct conflict with Iraq and Russia over his robust support for the Syrian opposition, although, as the noble Baroness indicated, the relationship with Iran is improving.
Turkey needs Europe more than ever to stimulate structural reforms, such as modernising the education system, which is critical to future prosperity and stability. Europe remains the primary source of technology, know-how and inspiration for governance and institutional reforms. That taking of sides by a country previously defined as secular, uniquely for the region despite its huge Muslim population, has probably compromised its ability to take as leading a role as it might have hoped in the past as a pivotal state that could accommodate both western and Middle Eastern approaches. However, an interesting relationship has developed between Turkey and the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq. Turkey may yet be of immense importance in events unfolding in Iraq.
In Cyprus, attempts to try to attain a stable and negotiated settlement for the divided island seem to advance and then retreat over the decades. Traditional UN peacekeeping has been successful in that it has prevented the Cyprus conflict from igniting into a wider Greco-Turkish dispute, but it has failed so far to bring the two communities together, and to an extent the divisions have become institutionalised. The joint declaration reached in February gives great hope for talks, stating that a settlement would have a positive impact on the entire region, with an agreement to respect each other’s distinct identity and committing to a common future in a united Cyprus within the European Union. That has allowed the resumption of formal settlement talks to start again in earnest. There are still, however, some significant and continuing areas for disagreement on key issues such as sovereignty, territory, return of refugees and compensation for property. What is being done to speed up the process of appointing a new UN special adviser to the Secretary-General on Cyprus, which will bring a new sense of urgency to the talks? On the whole, the situation in Cyprus provides a tiny beacon of hope while the political volatility of the region seems to be worsening.
Nobody can deny how difficult the situation is in the Middle East and the eastern Mediterranean. We need to keep our focus on those innocent victims in the upheaval and crisis, and to ensure that the international community delivers the essential aid to keep them alive. Ultimately we need a political solution, and the international community needs to use all the tools it has available to ensure that the right people sit around the table and thrash out a long-term agreement which will bring peace and stability to that difficult region. The final additional question is whether we will in time see in the region the development of pluralistic democratic politics, where people live together as citizens rather than dividing along sectarian, ethnic or religious lines.
The Senior Minister of State, Department for Communities and Local Government & Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Baroness Warsi) (Con)
My Lords, debates like today’s remind me of the incredible expertise and quality of debate that are such a feature of this House. I am almost inclined to succumb to the temptation to respond without reference to any of my brief, but that may be too much for my officials.
My noble friend Lord Sharkey’s opening analysis outlined the incredibly complicated world that we face and the challenges of a modern Foreign and Commonwealth Office. It raised the question of what is in Britain’s interests and how we pursue those interests. What are our responsibilities in pursuing those interests and how, in light of what is happening in Iraq, do we ensure that we learn the lessons of the past? I heard various theories about that as I listened to noble Lords. I do not think that everything can be distilled down to a simplistic view that it can all be blamed on Western action or Western inaction. We see that we have to use our diplomacy to respond to a changing world. We have seen in Iraq over the past few weeks how quickly the situation on the ground has changed.
It was interesting to hear my noble friend Lord Howell describe the UK’s strategic interest and to work out ways in which we can salvage and further that strategic interest. One of the challenges for the Foreign Office is ensuring that we look at what we lose when we gain something. It is important to make sure that our strategic interests in that way are balanced. For example, we see clearly that it was right, despite some concerns, for the United Kingdom to raise its relationship with Iran, with which we have common interests. The announcement today of the opening of an embassy in Tehran after first appointing a chargé in November last year clearly shows that it is important for us to continue to reach out and engage.
Turkey—which was mentioned in what was a wide-ranging debate—was raised by several noble Lords: my noble friends Lady Hussein-Ece and Lord Sharkey and the noble Baroness, Lady Morgan. The UK consistently has been one of the strongest supporters of Turkey’s EU accession process. We believe that that process will benefit the UK, the EU and Turkey and will contribute to a shared prosperity and regional security.
We firmly believe that the EU accession process is the most effective way to deal with some of the issues that need reform in Turkey, as was said by my noble friend Lady Hussein-Ece and the noble Baroness, Lady Morgan. Some European partners question the logic of helping Turkey to make progress on opening accession chapters that are relevant, for example, to human rights, in light of recent events. However, my noble friend Lord Sharkey was right to say that that can become a humiliating process. We must not let that process effectively to allow Turkey to ask whether it is in its interest to continue to pursue it. We must make sure that we keep Turkey engaged, because, among other things, it has a vital role to play in building that very regional stability that noble Lords have been speaking about. We therefore encourage Turkey to align its foreign policy with the EU Common Foreign and Security Policy. Turkey has demonstrated its commitment to EU foreign policy goals through its diplomacy and peacebuilding work, for example in the Balkans and in Somalia; and the UK worked closely with Turkey on both.
More recently, we have encouraged Turkey to align itself with the EU approach on Ukraine. Of course, Turkey continues to play a vital role in the international response to the situation in Syria.
The Foreign Secretary and his Turkish counterpart, Foreign Minister Davutoglu, have regular discussions about Turkey, not least about how to check the flow of foreign fighters transiting Turkey to join the conflict in Syria. The importance of that relationship was raised by the noble Lord, Lord Anderson; we continue to work with Turkey as a key strategic partner. It was of course part of the London 11 meeting last Friday to which the noble Baroness, Lady Morgan, referred, and we are still working together to look at ways in which we can provide stronger and more cohesive support to the national coalition. The noble Baroness will be aware that Turkey hosts the Syrian national coalition.
The UK has been at the forefront of the international humanitarian response to Syria. Our total funding is now in the region of £600 million. In parallel, we continue to work with Turkey and other members of the London 11 to provide the political and economic support which the Syrian national coalition needs. Turkey is of course also providing refuge for hundreds of thousands of refugees who have fled the violence in Syria, most of whom now reside outside the designated camps. We cannot thank Turkey enough for its generosity, because it includes allowing international NGOs to use its border crossings to deliver aid into Syria as well as hosting the refugees. It is important that, in the end, we find a political solution to ensure that, someday, those refugees are allowed to return home, but we also need to work through the United Nations. A further Security Council resolution could step up efforts to deliver humanitarian aid across the border and across lines irrespective of the consent of the regime.
My noble friend Lord Sharkey referred to recent developments in Iraq, as did other noble Lords. I covered this in a Statement yesterday and, indeed, in a Question earlier today. The horrific pictures emerging of the atrocities that are being committed by ISIL are of course deeply concerning, and it is important for us to go back to what several noble Lords said: regional stability is ultimately what will fight extremism. We have been highlighting the importance of having a newly elected Government in Iraq, a Government who are inclusive and do not make communities feel that they are not part of the decision-making process, and who do not create the space for extremist groups to exploit. It is important that in both Syria and Iraq we continue to work with those forces that are there stamping out that extremism.
My noble friend Lord Howell referred to the potential that the eastern Mediterranean region can provide as an alternative source of energy. In the light of the situation in Ukraine, the importance of diversifying energy supplies to the EU is another priority, but it is difficult to see how we could realise the full potential of energy from the eastern Mediterranean without a Cyprus settlement—again mentioned by several noble Lords. The Government are determined to support the leaders of both communities to realise this important window of opportunity for a comprehensive settlement. My noble friend Lady Hussein-Ece said that she is an optimist on this, but I think that a real opportunity is being presented.
That settlement would make a substantial contribution to the security and prosperity of the region. A Cyprus settlement is also crucial to the prosperity of the two communities on the island. For those reasons, the UK will play its full part in supporting the prospects for a settlement through our active diplomacy, support to the UN good offices mission and close co-operation with our partners in Ankara, Athens and the EU. Several noble Lords mentioned the joint declaration signed in February. There is a Cypriot leaders’ meeting in Cyprus next week, which needs to agree the ambitious vision set out in the declaration for achieving progress in the settlement talks over the summer, with the aim of capturing an agreement on the core issues of the settlement in a UN Security Council product in the autumn.
I was asked about UK action to support the Cyprus settlement. Last week, the Minister for Europe gave strong political support to the two negotiators when he met them. We are providing diplomatic support to the UN good offices mission. We are also keen to see a new UN special adviser to the settlement process to expedite a final settlement. We are working closely with the UN on the acceleration of that appointment. Again, I go back to the fact that I do not think there has been a better time in several years for a lasting settlement and therefore we commend the two leaders at this point for their determination. The noble Baroness, Lady Morgan, also asked about recent events in Iraq, which I think I dealt with earlier.
It is incredibly difficult to conclude such a wide-ranging debate. Of course, Iran and Iraq were mentioned, as were Syria, Lebanon, Cyprus and Turkey. To try to deal with the situations in each of those countries in any depth while outlining the extent of the FCO and DfID engagement would be almost impossible. However, I am sure that those issues will come up in the form of subjects for Questions and debates in the coming months in this House.
I end on an issue which I have made a huge priority: that of faith and foreign policy. I have said that it would have increasing significance in terms of foreign policy, which is why I have been at the forefront of making sure that our Foreign Office is religiously literate. Only today, I hosted what I think was the 13th or 14th lecture from external and internal speakers on the issue of faith and foreign policy, when we had the pleasure of hosting Dr Rowan Williams—the noble and right reverend Lord, Lord Williams of Oystermouth. Those lectures give staff the opportunity to raise some of these issues and open their thinking.
However, we are also encouraging the officers to look at what levers faith presents. We often discuss what challenges faith presents but we should look also at what levers it presents and how we truly make sure that we take forward the human rights priority—my personal priority of freedom of religion and belief—because ultimately, if we have states and individual communities abiding by freedom of religion and belief, much of the conflict that we are seeing, both inter-religion and intra-religion, could start to be resolved. Having a deep and better understanding by being better historians and having a sophisticated understanding of faith issues will, I hope, make sure that as a Foreign and Commonwealth Office and as a Government, we face a rapidly changing world in a better way: one where Britain is engaged and informed.