European Union (Referendum) Bill

Lord Dobbs Excerpts

Friday 24th January 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Dobbs (Con)]

My Lords, thank you. I have listened carefully to this debate and have given this particular issue a great deal of thought over recent weeks. I have also taken note of the fact that 81 amendments have been put down so far to the Bill. This is but the first group of amendments and we have already taken well over two hours in discussing it—which is why, at the risk of seeming discourteous to the House, I do not intend to take any interventions. I want to get on with this. Although I simply do not have time—

[Noble Lords]

Oh!

[Lord Dobbs]

Well, we have just seen five interventions on the noble Baroness in three minutes.

[Baroness Royall of Blaisdon]

My Lords—

[Lord Dobbs]

No, I am sorry, I am not going to take—

[Baroness Royall of Blaisdon]

My Lords, I am Leader of Her Majesty’s Opposition and I would like to be heard. The difference between the noble Lord who has sponsored the Bill and the Minister is that it is the noble Lord’s Bill. It is a Private Member’s Bill. I think that the whole House would therefore expect the noble Lord to answer the questions that have been put to him—and if noble Lords who have intervened previously in this debate feel that there are additional questions to be answered, that is entirely appropriate. I think the House would find it appropriate if the noble Lord answered those questions.

[Lord Dobbs]

If I may be allowed to make progress, I will do my best to do precisely that and to answer the questions that have been raised. They are about the questions in the amendment which the noble Lord, Lord Armstrong, tabled. I am afraid that I simply do not have time to acknowledge all those who have spoken, although I thank noble Lords for their, by and large, reasoned and reasonable contributions, and in particular for the elegant way in which the noble Lord, Lord Armstrong, introduced his amendment.

I am not entirely unsympathetic to what has been said. As I said at Second Reading, the case about the question is arguable but not overwhelming. Although some noble Lords have implied that we are standing at the gates of hell, and that almost any question would be better than this one, it is worth remembering that the Electoral Commission did not condemn out of hand the question that stands in the Bill. Some of the references to the commission’s findings that were made during this debate were hugely exaggerated. I have its findings here and have read every word. The commission said:

“We found that the wording of the question itself”—

the question contained in the Bill—

“is brief, uses straightforward language, and is easy to understand and answer”,

not that it was confusing and misleading, as the noble Lord, Lord Armstrong, suggested. The Electoral Commission had its reservations, of course—

[Lord Kinnock (Lab)]

Since the noble Lord is quoting from the Electoral Commission’s report, his quotation, in order to be accurate, should be precise. Exactly after the phrase which he has quoted, the words of the Electoral Commission are,

“however … the phrase ‘be a member of the European Union’ to describe the referendum choice is not sufficiently clear to ensure a full understanding of the referendum as a whole … The question wording does not make it clear for some people what the current status of the UK is within the EU, and the referendum choice as expressed in the question is likely to lead to confusion”.

If that is not a clear dismissal of the version of the question that the noble Lord is offering, I do not know what is.

[Lord Dobbs]

I thank the noble Lord. That is precisely why I do not wish to take too many interventions.

[Noble Lords]

Oh!

[Lord Dobbs]

It is precisely that point which I am about to address. If noble Lords would do me the courtesy of listening, they might actually learn a little about what I feel about this, rather than what the noble Lord, Lord Kinnock, feels about it. That is more time wasted. I will get on to the time-wasting in just a minute, if noble Lords will allow me.

As I was about to say, the Electoral Commission had its reservations, of course, and we have already heard much of that from noble Lords. However, I believe that the commission’s concern that some voters might be confused, because they are unaware that we are already members of the European Union, is a little oversensitive. Yet the role of the commission is to be cautious, and I do not criticise it for that. I understand that in the past we have made a habit of accepting the commission’s recommendations about any referendum question, but it is worth remembering that its role in this matter is entirely advisory. It is not an umpire or a judge but, as the noble Lord, Lord Triesman, has just pointed out, a source of advice. At the end of the day, it is up to us. The other place debated almost this exact same amendment as we are dealing with here and, after a lengthy debate, rejected it by a majority of 241.

It is also worth remembering that the commission was not able to offer a clear single alternative question. It is hugely significant that this amendment, which mirrors the second alternative suggested by the commission’s report, has not been properly tested by the commission; it clearly states in its report that it did not have time. So it is entirely possible that if I accepted this amendment, the commission might come back at a later stage and tell us that this wording was not good enough either. That would put us in a most awkward position and embarrass so much of what has already been said here today.

At Second Reading I mentioned other potential weaknesses in the commission’s report. I do not want to go back over too much of that ground but many noble Lords have expressed their concerns today. It is perhaps a pity—I put it as no more than that—that not a single Member of this House expressed any concern while the Electoral Commission was undertaking consultation at a stage that might have avoided the need for this amendment in the first place. Indeed, only 19 individuals and organisations offered any comment whatever. If this is a serious issue, it has been a long time coming.

It is also a fact of life that currently 81 amendments have been tabled to this short Bill. We know that some of the Bill’s opponents are determined to use any means to kill it. While I want to make progress, I hope that the House will allow me a moment to deal with that central issue because it gives a context to all else that we do here. Right from the start, the moment that the Bill came to this House, it has been true that, as the noble Lord, Lord Tyler, who sadly I do not see in his seat, told the BBC—and I am grateful for his frankness about this—the opponents will use every trick in the book to derail it. It was put to him in an interview by Mr Mark D’Arcy that the aim would be to keep this Bill running in one form or another pretty much right up to the election. The noble Lord replied: “What they do not want to do, I do not think anyone wants to do, is to have their fingerprints on the dagger that kills it”. There we have it—death by a thousand cuts, or at least by 81 amendments, and that is what undermines the rights of this House.

I hasten to add that I am not accusing the sponsors of this amendment of any hint of deviousness. Many of them have made their points with charm and eloquence, as we would expect them to. However, we all know what is going on. We cannot deny the presence of an elephant in the room, a very large and unreasonable elephant—those who have no intention whatever of working to improve the Bill but who are solely intent on trying to kill it. They claim to be trying to improve the question but in fact are trying to ensure that no question is ever put.

We all know that if the Bill is to survive—if we are to give people the referendum they want—we have to get the Bill through this House in reasonable shape and in very short time. That timetable is not mine; it is simply another fact of life. It is a further fact that after six days of detailed consideration, the Bill went through the other place at every stage with a huge majority or no opposition whatever. We could all speculate why Labour and Liberal Democrat MPs ran for cover, but the fact is that they did. So, in the belief that what was good enough for Labour and Liberal Democrat geese down the other end of the Palace must surely be more than enough to satisfy their noble ganders, I ask the noble Lord, who is not party to any of these games, to withdraw his amendment.

[Lord Armstrong of Ilminster]

My Lords, my modest, innocent little amendment has given rise to a long, interesting and wide-ranging debate, and after more than two hours I do not propose to try to deal with every point. We are being told that the Bill must pass unamended to go back to the House of Commons in order to be concluded in time to be passed into legislation in this Session. As to that, although I am not an expert in procedure, it seems that if the House of Commons is sufficiently keen to see the Bill passed, it can change its procedure as a matter of exception in order to deal with it. I therefore hope that your Lordships will not be put off by that threat.

We are told that the Bill is a necessity as a guarantee or, as the noble and learned Lord, Lord Mackay, said, an assurance that there will an “in or out” referendum about our membership of the European Union in 2017. With the greatest respect to those who are saying so, I cannot see it. It is impossible for this Parliament to give a cast-iron guarantee or assurance about something that is going to happen after the next election. Suppose that in May 2015, after the next election, there were to be a change of Government and the new Government decided that there should not be a referendum on this matter. The new Government would be free to introduce legislation in the House of Commons to give effect to that decision; the House of Commons would pass it; and then it would come back to this House, and no doubt we should be told that an unelected House ought not to challenge the view of the House of Commons.

I am with those who feel that we should not shirk our duty to scrutinise the Bill and, if we can, improve it, and that, with the greatest respect to the House of Commons, if that House feels that the Bill is so important, it should then adjust its procedures in order to deal with it. I do not think that the Bill provides the kind of guarantee or assurance that we shall have a referendum, because no one can know what will happen in 2015. If it is a guarantee at all, it is so only until May of that year. In fact, the best assurance that the people of Britain can have that there should be a referendum will be the commitment by the present Prime Minister to hold a referendum in 2017. As I said at Second Reading, that is a commitment that he can enshrine in a manifesto. No doubt the manifesto does not have the force of a statute, but at least its shadow stretches beyond the next election and would govern what the new Parliament did. I might almost argue, if I allowed myself to be political, that if the British people thought it so vital to have a referendum, as I am sure they do, their best means of assuring themselves of getting it would be to return Mr Cameron, who has given them this commitment.

The time has come for us to take a decision on this matter. I am afraid that I am not persuaded by the procedural arguments that have been deployed from the Benches here, and I think there is a strong measure of support for the amendment that I have proposed. Without any further ado, I should like to test the opinion of the House.

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[Lord Triesman]

My Lords, this is a helpful amendment, and I have only one very brief comment to make. We have had a number of proposals coming through this and the other House over a period of time that have changed our unwritten constitution in quite significant ways. It is very difficult to know how they all mesh together, because they are almost never spoken of in terms of taking a helicopter view of the whole set of proposals. That probably leads towards the laws of unintended consequences on occasions because we do not have a holistic view. It would be incredibly hard before the Scottish referendum, allowing for one of the possible outcomes of that referendum, to make any intelligent decisions in this area. I do not think that we would be thanked by the people of Scotland, as it might very well be that they would feel that it took an element of their choice away from them, in the full sense of a choice about their future in Europe, in relation to the currency, and so on. It is a very sensible proposal, and I hope that the House will give it proper consideration.

[Lord Dobbs]

My Lords, dates are very difficult, are they not? We have this particular amendment, which talks about October 2014, and other amendments that suggest 2020. We have talked about the Scottish referendum, yet at other times in debates on the Bill we have heard that we cannot have this or that date because of what is going on in Germany, Brussels, and so forth. Dates are difficult, and I acknowledge that. There is no ideal date; it is a bit like trying to find the right time to suggest that your wife should start a diet. There is never going to be a right time for that, which is why—

[Lord Radice]

Then why is there a date in this Bill at all?

[Lord Dobbs]

It is very simple, and I was about to get on to that. That is why the date in this Bill is very flexible. The Bill says that the referendum must be held any time up until the last day of 2017. As the noble and learned Lord, Lord Mackay, has spent so much time instructing us, this is not the last time that this Bill and the measures for this referendum will come back to this House.

Dates are difficult, which is why the Bill has a very flexible date contained in it. However, I believe that, to put it this way, while many people might understand why the House took the view that it did on the previous amendment, I suspect very few would understand why we would twist and turn the Bill around to pass this amendment. It is unnecessary and perhaps misguided.

[Lord Wigley]

I am grateful to the noble Lord for giving away, and I understand part of what he is saying. However, were Scotland to vote yes, although that may be an unlikely outcome as things stand, would he accept that for the period after the referendum, perhaps even up to 2016, when independence would become a fact, it would be difficult to hold the referendum on the EU?

[Lord Dobbs]

I like to deal with the practical world, rather than hypotheses, and the Prime Minister has already said that he needs this time to undertake the fundamental renegotiation that is behind all this. That is why he is going to campaign at that referendum on the basis of staying in, not getting out. He has already started that process of renegotiation, which will take time. There is no chance, in the practical, real world, that we could encounter a situation in which this referendum would be begun before the date that the noble Lord suggests. So this is really an unnecessary amendment, and I ask the noble Lord to consider withdrawing it.

[Lord Wigley]

My Lords, I am grateful for the opportunity of having at least put the point on the record that there is an issue here to which we may well return on later amendments, as the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, indicated. I am grateful to noble Lords who have participated in this short debate. I beg leave to withdraw the amendment.

--- Later in debate ---

[Baroness Warsi]

As the noble Lord is aware, the balance of competences review is to be done over four terms. The first set of papers has already been published and the second is being published as we speak. It is important that there is a timeframe within which this proper process is allowed to take place, and that is why the date as set in this Bill is not before the end of 2017. In those circumstances, I would say that the overwhelming feeling of the British people is to allow the referendum to happen.

[Lord Dobbs]

My Lords, someone has just passed me a note to remind me that today is the anniversary of when the Emperor Caligula was deserted by his noble friends in 41 AD and came to a sticky end. I am not quite sure what they meant by that.

Another amendment, another hour, so I will be brief. I thank the noble Lord, Lord Roper, for the dignified way in which he has introduced the amendment. I also thank the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes; I hope that it will not embarrass him if I confirm that we have extremely cordial personal relations outside this Chamber, but I assure noble Lords that that has never done anything to undermine the asperity of our politics.

Once again, this is a specific matter that was debated in the other place at some length and was turned down by a resounding margin. I understand why. The amendment could be taken as implying a lack of belief in our democratic process and the ability and capacity of people to come to a sensible conclusion. Of course they should be fully informed. That is the basis of our democracy; it is what election and referendum campaigns are all about. We have the most mature democracy in the world. The people are more than capable of understanding that the press often talks complete nonsense, as do the political parties and even perhaps the CBI. We have heard a lot about the CBI on this particular amendment; I understand that the noble Lord, Lord Liddle, and others would like the CBI to have a role in this independent, objective and dispassionate—to use the word of the noble Lord, Lord Kinnock—assessment. Is that the same CBI that a few years ago was chiding the then Labour Government to get off the fence and join the euro? You see, it is not quite as simple as—

[Baroness Quin]

I take the point that the noble Lord is making, but actually the CBI had conducted a survey and what it was doing was reflecting the views of its companies up and down the country and the people who worked for them.

[Lord Dobbs]

Many of those companies have changed their mind. The noble Baroness is simply confirming the point that I want to make: these objective assessments are terribly difficult, and not simply obtained by the movement of a pen.

[Lord Radice]

A number of us have argued for using the Office for Budget Responsibility. Is the noble Lord seriously saying that that is not a reputable and objective body? If so, he is of course undermining the whole basis of his Government’s economic policy.

[Lord Dobbs]

The noble Lord fully understands that that is not at all what I am saying. I am simply suggesting that this is not only a difficult issue but an important one. Of course we want people to make up their minds, and in order for them to do that they need information. Above all, though, what they need first and foremost is a vote—the first vote that they will have had in 40 years.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords—

[Lord Dobbs]

I am coming almost to the end. If the noble Lord insists, then of course I will give way.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

Why should the vote be first and foremost? Should not an evidence-based assessment be first and foremost?

[Lord Dobbs]

My Lords, nothing in the Bill prevents a future Parliament, before a referendum, from asking for just such an independent assessment in the circumstances of the time. Nothing in this Bill says that that is not going to happen. It is simply that this Bill is not required to do that in order for that to be achieved. The people will get their information—they will probably start complaining that they have had too much information—but they do not need this amendment in order to get it.

Having listened to the noble Lord’s argument and not disagreeing with his fundamental approach that the people of course need the right information to make up their minds, given that it is not necessary for this amendment to be passed in order for them to get that information, I respectfully ask him to withdraw his amendment.

[Lord Roper]

My Lords, I am extraordinarily grateful for the support from all parts of the House for this cross-party Back-Bench amendment asking for the Bill to include an obligation to provide objective information on these critical matters. Given the time, I hope noble Lords will forgive me if I do not go into detail on all the points raised, although I think that the agenda which the noble Lord, Lord Kinnock, proposed is probably rather more than the one which I was thinking of, but there are obviously other ways in which these other matters can be dealt with.

I also felt that the point made by the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, on environmental matters and the social chapter spelled out some of the things which were already included. I hope that the House understands very clearly the distinction between the objective analysis which we are putting forward in this set of amendments and the other matters which are put forward in other amendments to which we will be returning later.

In view of the support from all parts of the House, I was very disappointed that the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, the promoter of this Bill, having said that he agrees with it, feels that it is not necessary to have it in the Bill. That is an argument one often gets as far as amendments are concerned. It is, of course, no longer possible to say that we must not have any amendments because we already have one, and having got one, the arguments against this one seem much reduced. On that basis, I wish to test the opinion of the House.

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[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock]

That is an absolute calumny. [Interruption.] The noble Lord, Lord Trimble, is known for his acerbity on these matters. I have been going for six minutes; when did we last take six minutes on a filibuster? In my main speech earlier in the day I was less than 10 minutes whereas the noble and learned Lord, Lord Mackay, rambled on for nearly 30 minutes. He was the one doing the filibustering, not me.

[Lord Dobbs]

At the risk of wasting any more time, dare I suggest that it is not a filibuster but a “Milibuster”, something designed by the Labour Party to cause so much delay and confusion that we will all have forgotten where we started from?

[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock]

The noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, has read the people’s tweets. They coined the word “Milibuster" and he is using it. The interesting, remarkable and ironic thing is that if the noble Lords, Lord Forsyth and Lord Dobbs, had not intervened, I would have sat down two minutes ago.

--- Later in debate ---

[Baroness Warsi]

My Lords, I have huge regard for the noble Baroness. There are clearly strongly held views on this matter so I will take advice and ensure that matters are clarified.

[Lord Dobbs]

My Lords, this has been a very serious and significant debate. It is the sort of debate that we should have had on this Bill. I thank the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, for the dignified and detailed way in which he introduced his amendment. If I may be forgiven, because it is a very significant amendment, I will take a little time in dealing with it.

I see the logic of so much of what the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, and others have said. I take a different logic, and I need to explain that. This amendment goes right to the heart of why I got involved with this Bill in the first place. I do not want to destroy—far from it, I want to build, and I want to build trust. I do not want to fan any flames; I want to put them out once and for all. I have heard a lot during this debate about our relationship with our European partners, but I think that we should show at least as much if not more concern for the feelings of our own people.

Why do we need a date, or at least a timeframe, because that is what it is? The noble Lord, Lord Kerr, explained with great eloquence and experience how complicated these things are, and he is right. That is why, despite all the promises that have been made, all the forests that have been felled in order to print political manifestos, nothing has been done. That is the cause of the distrust. People have been promised a referendum and have been denied it, time and again. Those are the flames of discontent that I wish to put out. We need a timeframe in order to stop that further decay of trust. Less than 10% of this House would have been too young to vote in the referendum in 1975, but more than 70% of the population of our country fall into that category. We are not representative of the country, least of all in its desire for a referendum.

Let us suppose that the referendum is held in October 2017. Of course, there will be shopping lists of what we have got right, what we have got wrong, where we have failed, where we will gain and where we will lose. But the job will not be finished then. These relationships are never once-and-for-all matters, whether we are in or out of the EU. We will have to deal with it and our relationship will carry on developing. Of course, there will be more to be done. It will not all be finished by October 2017. There is always more to be done. We will not be saying that the job is over once and for all but we will be asking the people if they are willing to support a future in the European Union or outside it.

Why 2017? It is because we as politicians have consistently failed. We have talked the talk but never walked the walk. We have never provided the referendum that we all have talked about at various times. The people want something more solid than yet more broken promises. The question I asked at Second Reading, which the noble Lord, Lord Triesman, was kind enough to acknowledge, was: if not 2017, when? Answer comes there none.

Let us go back eight years. During the past eight years, when would we have said that it was a good time for a referendum? I cannot think of one. There are always reasons not to do something.

[Baroness Falkner of Margravine]

The noble Lord will surely recall that in 2008, on the Lisbon treaty, the Liberal Democrats proposed a referendum on this very question of “in or out”.

[Lord Dobbs]

The noble Baroness will understand that I could spend a great deal of time with a great deal of joy talking about the Liberal Democrat position on referendums and I would happily do that in public, but, if I may, I will pass over that and get on with the points that I want to make. There is always a reason for not doing something. We must be wary in this House of falling into the trap of implying, as several noble Lords have done, that there will never be a good time for such a vote. That is how many people will interpret much of what has been said here today: that too many people feel that there is a never a time to trust them.

This process of negotiation has effectively already begun, with changes to the budget, the common fisheries policy and other things, but I shall not go into the detail of that—now is not the time. Those negotiations will make more progress between now and the referendum, and I believe that we will make more progress after a referendum—that is what a relationship is all about. That brings me to the one hugely significant point that has been mentioned here time and again: that we are binding a future Parliament.

We are no more binding a future Parliament than we did when we passed the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, which said that the election of the next Parliament but one will be held in May 2020. Exactly the same point applies for the date that is in this Bill. Let me pursue that analogy a little further.

If the next Parliament were to decide that the circumstances of the date of that election, in May 2020, were unacceptable for whatever reason, it would change it. If that next Parliament were to decide that the circumstances of the date of this referendum were not acceptable—that it had become fatally flawed perhaps by change in circumstance—it would change that, too. It would need a darned good reason to change it, one that people would find acceptable—not another game that we politicians keep playing with them over this. The people would have to be taken into their confidence, persuaded of any need for a change. However, if we keep putting off the date of this referendum, we will find that that distrust, the poison that Sir John Major said had entered the system—

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

Does the noble Lord realise that the analogy that he draws with fixed-term Parliaments is not very apt? This Parliament has changed the periodicity of general elections quite often in the past. The party to which he belongs used to be in favour of annual Parliaments in the early 1700s, which I do not imagine it would come back to now. That has been done, and it has nothing whatever to do with what is being proposed here. What is being proposed here is a Bill whose sole purpose is to bind the hands of a future Parliament; it has no other purpose whatever. That is surely a germane point.

The other point to which the noble Lord could perhaps reply is his suggestion that the amendment would somehow mean endless prevarication. A party which has in its manifesto at the 2015 election the holding of a referendum will have the Salisbury convention on its side to pass legislation necessary to hold the referendum when it decides to do so. If it has any sense, it will not this time put the cart before the horse and decide the date of the referendum before it has had the negotiation.

[Lord Dobbs]

My Lords, the noble Lord makes a good point: if it had any sense. I must remind the noble Lord that the Liberal Democrats had in their previous election manifesto a commitment to an “in or out” referendum, and where are they today? I mentioned at Second Reading that I do not want to make a party-political—

[Baroness Falkner of Margravine]

My Lords—

[Noble Lords]

Order!

[Lord Dobbs]

May I just finish the point? I do not particularly want to make a party-political point of this, because, as I said at Second Reading, all parties are guilty of having changed their stance on this. That is why the people no longer trust us.

[Baroness Falkner of Margravine]

My Lords, would the noble Lord like to tell me on which page of our 2010 manifesto he believes it states we do not have a commitment to a referendum should there be any treaty change or transfer of competencies? Let me update him on Liberal Democrat policy if he wants further assurance—he clearly does. Our commitment is, as passed in September at the Liberal Democrats’ party conference, to have an “in or out” referendum, not just on the basis of treaty change but should there be any transfer or powers or further treaty in future. That is slightly further than the noble Lord’s own party has gone in terms of its last conference.

[Lord Dobbs]

I will happily debate this with my noble friend at another time, but remind her of the situation in 2008 in another place where the Liberal Democrats fell apart on precisely this point about an “in or out” referendum. Please, if I may, I will make progress. I still hear no alternative date being offered. If we keep putting off the date of this referendum, we will find more of the distrust and poison that Sir John Major mentioned—

[Noble Lords]

My Lords—

[Lord Dobbs]

May I please just finish this point? The noble Lord, Lord Anderson, mentioned Sir John Major. Sir John is entirely in support of this referendum. He says it is the only way that we can rid the poison of the European issue from the distrust of the people.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

We may have to disagree about Sir John Major. I have a quotation from him here saying that he would not support the Wharton Bill. Give me 10 minutes and I will find it but I am afraid I do not have it to hand.

[Lord Grenfell]

I add one point to that. It would be wholly inconsistent for us on these Benches to propose another date when the whole point of what we are trying to get across is that we want to give a future Government flexibility.

[Lord Dobbs]

If I can lean on the noble Baroness’s patience, I suggested at the start that I needed a little time to cover these issues and I will—precisely, right now—get to the very point that she raised. We need a date. Why do we need one? For the people. We do not need more empty promises. We need a date not as a straitjacket but as a sensible commitment to the people, one they will trust and that will rebind us in their trust because we have failed them. We need a mechanism for this country to be able to move forward. Simply saying that we will have a referendum at some point is not good enough. Why 2017? It is a specific date. Without a specific date, the mistrust that has built up will never be swept away. I already explained that it is not a straitjacket. It has all sorts of flexibility to it but it is an ambition, target and objective that we can all work towards.

[Lord Kinnock]

Can the noble Lord enlighten us? The undertaking to have a referendum by 31 December 2017 arises precisely out of that given by the Prime Minister in his speech from January last year in saying that it had to be in the first half of the next Parliament. Does the noble Lord realise that he is now trying to argue that we must still have the referendum before 31 December, regardless of whether the absolutely vital negotiations have been completed, the achievements —let us call them that—have been agreed to and all the other processes in the European Union have reached conclusion? We have heard about the implausibility of that kind of time schedule. In other words, he would rather stick to the date than employ any common sense whatever.

[Lord Dobbs]

I beg the noble Lord’s pardon, but I do not think that he heard what I said. I said that the date could be changed, but it would have to be for a darned good reason, a reason that the people would accept.

[Baroness Farrington of Ribbleton]

My Lords—

[Lord Dobbs]

We have made a great deal of progress today in this House, and perhaps I could express the serious wish that we should set the objective of getting through Committee today, which would be hugely helpful. That means that I am reluctant to take any more interventions because I am so very close to concluding my remarks on this point. If the noble Baroness insists, of course I will give way.

[Baroness Farrington of Ribbleton]

My Lords, the noble Lord said that in order to vary the date from before the end of 2017, there would have to be a good reason. I have listened very carefully and have not heard from the noble Lord one very good reason why that particular date has been chosen. While I am on my feet, I ask the noble Lord not to misrepresent those of us who are committed pro-European Union Members who believe that people should, at the appropriate time, be given a chance to express their point of view in a referendum, by sweeping us all aside as people who do not want to listen to the public.

[Lord Dobbs]

Again, if I have given that impression to the noble Baroness, I apologise, but that has never been my intent in this. We know that some in this House have been playing games about this Bill, and I have gone a long way in accepting that the debate we have just had has been serious, sensible and one that I welcome.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords—

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[Lord Dobbs]

No, my Lords, I really wish to stand my ground.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, we had a certain difference about what Sir John Major had said. I now have the quotation. John Major was quoted as saying that the Bill was not worthy of his support and that leaving the European Union would be “folly beyond belief”.

[Lord Dobbs]

I could dig out another quote, but that would take another five minutes, and I think that this debate has gone on long enough and I wish to conclude.

In conclusion, I thank the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, for the positive engagement that he has encouraged between us outside the Chamber on the issues; it has been very helpful to me. Of course, we disagree about this matter across the Floor of the House, and I think that it is now time for us to decide. With great respect, I ask the noble Lord to withdraw his amendment.

[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

My Lords,

“Half a league, half a league,

Half a league onward,

All in the valley of Death

Rode the six hundred”.

—or 158, I think.

I have great respect for the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, and the Earl of Cardigan was not responsible for the loss of the Light Brigade, although he was the commander. Missing was the Earl of Lucan—he is in Davos, I think—and the Earl of Raglan, the commanders of the Army. It has been a very gallant charge and it was probably the case that halfway down the valley of death, the Earl of Cardigan turned to the chap on his left and said, “We have made a lot of very good progress today”.

It is very difficult to answer this debate, because I am supposed to deal with the objections to my amendment; I am still waiting. The most interesting suggestion, which I am rather inclined to follow, was in the speech of the noble Lord, Lord Higgins. Act I of the play was quite nasty, with a lot of talk about people misbehaving—hijacking was a word used from the Front Bench—and plotting. In my view, that was not worthy of the House. Act I is over. As the noble Lords, Lord Higgins, Lord Cormack and Lord Deben pointed out, we are now in Act II and our job is to try to turn the Bill, which a lot of us think is a rather bad Bill, into a good Bill. We need to amend and improve it.

I do not know why the date is here. I thought that I had argued, with a degree of support from around the House, that it does not make sense, because the renegotiation cannot be completed. The noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, says that we could change the date, but we would need a darn good reason. I thought that we had given two hours and 10 minutes of darn good reasons. However, I think that the noble Lord, Lord Higgins, is right: in Act II one ought to try to be a bit co-operative. There is a point knocking around here which I have not quite grasped. It is not the point of the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, about distrust, but the point of the noble and learned Lord, Lord Mackay of Clashfern, about an enforceable undertaking. Although I do not agree with that point, one needs to think about it because it seems a solid point.

The provision does not need the date of 2017; I am not even sure that it needs a date. Perhaps it should be something about “the term of the next Parliament”, and it may be that an amendment could emerge from the Earl of Raglan and be voiced by the Earl of Cardigan. The question that the noble Lord keeps asking us—if not then, when?—is a question that we are entitled to ask him.

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[Lord Liddle]

Briefly, the Opposition attach a lot of importance to this consideration of alternatives. We would hope that there would be some kind of agreed amendment between my noble friend Lord Anderson and the noble Lords, Lord Wigley and Lord Turnbull, which we might consider on Report.

[Lord Dobbs]

My Lords, I, too, will be brief. I entirely endorse the sentiment behind these amendments. Of course the alternatives must be spelled out. This historic decision which we wish to put to the people should never be taken blind. It is, however, a question of the best mechanism for those alternatives to be spelled out. We hope that they would be taken care of simply by what is called democracy: by a referendum campaign that would be long, arduous and very detailed. I think the people would demand to know from those who were suggesting that we should not stay within the European Union precisely what the alternative was. If that alternative were not offered, they would come to their own conclusions.

It is also, however, a matter that can be dealt with under the terms of the Bill after it has been passed. It does not need to be—

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

The noble Lord is most kind to give way but, quite honestly, what he just said does not address the problem. The leaders of the no campaign will not be the Government on the day after they win a referendum: there will still be a British Government, which will not be them. We are now talking about what the Government tell the electorate they would do if the electorate voted no, not what the no campaign would do. If the no campaign is led by the noble Lord, Lord Pearson, heaven knows what he would do, but he will not be the Government. I am sorry; the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, does not address the point completely.

[Lord Dobbs]

As I mentioned during the last debate, this is not a black and white, a cut-off, a once-and-for-all decision. This will be a judgment made at the time, on the circumstances—and who can tell what those circumstances will be? People will inevitably have to take into account the fact that tomorrow is another day, and it might be a different day from yesterday, but nothing is going to happen overnight. These things will all have to be dealt with and talked through, both before the referendum campaign and after it. I am entirely in sympathy with the instincts behind this amendment, but it does not need to be in the Bill to get that certainty. The issue could be dealt with at a later stage—in the next Parliament, depending on the circumstances of the day. On those grounds, and for all the other grounds that I pointed out, I request that the noble Lord withdraws his amendment.

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[Baroness Warsi]

My Lords, I speak as a government Minister and, as always, as a member of the Conservative Party. Perhaps I may express the Government’s view in relation to referendums. Their view is that referendum results should be determined by a simple majority, and we do not believe that thresholds apply. This is the approach taken in the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011 and follows the recommendation of the House of Lords Select Committee on the Constitution in its 2010 report, Referendums in the United Kingdom.

[Lord Dobbs]

My Lords, you wait for one amendment tabled by the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, to come along and then three or four arrive at the same time. I am grateful to him. This is clearly a serious issue and the points that have been made are well taken. Personally, I cannot conceive of circumstances in which, for instance, Amendment 40, which requires a 25% turnout, would ever arise. This is far too important a decision, which I am sure the British people would acknowledge and do justice to. The noble Lord, Lord Wigley, correctly pointed out the difficulties around setting a threshold. We would all like a very clear decision in a referendum, and there are dangers in being too prescriptive about the form that that decision should take: turnouts, majorities and so forth.

There is what I think is an important safety valve in the Bill. We are not talking about a binding referendum. It is not like, for instance, the AV referendum we had recently; it is a consultative referendum. Parliament would have to deal with the consequences of an out vote. How they would deal with the difficulties and uncertainties that might then arise would depend entirely upon the circumstances of the time.

[Lord Higgins]

I am very heartened by what my noble friend has just said about this being a consultative referendum, but I am having difficulty in finding where it states that in the Bill.

[Lord Dobbs]

My Lords, I believe that the convention is that if it is not a consultative referendum, it is an obligatory referendum, as was the AV referendum. It is not necessary to put in the fact that it is consultative because it is consultative unless we say otherwise. That, I believe, is the convention.

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

Following up the point made by the noble Lord, Lord Higgins, I am sure that the noble Lord has taken advice and that what he said is correct. But how many of his fellow citizens are going to understand that? If you read the daily press, you would believe that they think that the Bill is going to provide for a mandatory referendum. They think that the outcome of the Bill will be binding on the Government and on Parliament. If that is not the case, the noble Lord should consider very carefully—in the interests, quite rightly, of this being clear and transparent, and so that people know what they are letting themselves in for beforehand and what they are getting afterwards—whether that needs to be made clear in the Bill in some way or another, whether it is by the tense of the verbs used or something like that. Frankly, I do not believe that we can just sail through this process on the advice that he has been given and that the rest of our countrymen will understand that.

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[Lord Dobbs]

My Lords, I believe that the Bill is phrased in the traditional and correct way. Of course, there may be other views and I will listen to those very carefully. It is certainly my understanding that, if the Bill goes through, Parliament will have the final say. That is a very important safety valve and deals with many of the issues and thresholds which we have, quite rightly and sensibly, discussed. I believe these amendments to be unnecessary for that reason. Although the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, has sent along many of these buses, I do not think it is necessary to climb on any of them and hope he would be so kind as to withdraw his amendment.

[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock]

My Lords, I did say that they were probing amendments and, in the light of what the noble Lord has said, I unhesitatingly agree to withdraw this one.

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[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

This debate is in danger of being hijacked by a filibustering gang of Montagnards opposite—the Robespierre and the Danton, the noble Lords, Lord Cormack and Lord Higgins. They are behaving disgracefully, leading us away down these alleyways. We are talking about how many angels dance on the head of a pin. Whatever the referendum is called, consultative or mandatory, it will be decisive. There is no doubt that if the country voted to leave the European Union, the Government of the day would have to start the Article 50 procedures laid down in the treaty for secession. There is absolutely no doubt about that.

The question is simply, as the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, says, should the Bill be honest and say that the people are being consulted? The noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, says that there is no need to do so because that is all it is: a consultative referendum. I have no idea who is right but if the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, is correct that it is a consultative referendum, then I agree with the noble Lords, Lord Hannay and Lord Foulkes, that it should say so. But it should also be clear—and we should be in no doubt—that once the people have been consulted and have spoken, that is it.

[Lord Dobbs]

My Lords, would it help us if I made this suggestion? I agree with the passion that the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, puts forward on this and with so many comments that have been made by my noble friends. If it is consultative, it is perhaps up to me to find a way to make sure that it is unambiguously consultative. If the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, will allow me to engage in some conversation with him at a little later date, I will see what I can do. Certainly, my heart is entirely in line with his on this issue and on that basis, I beg him to withdraw the amendment.

[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock]

On that very helpful basis—this deadline is working well, as my noble friend Lord Kinnock said earlier on—I very much agree to withdraw it.

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[Lord Triesman]

My Lords, my grasp of Mandarin is as extensive as my grasp of Welsh—I am very sorry to have to admit it. There are some languages I can do, but neither of those. The parity of value expressed by doing it in different languages seems an unanswerable objective. I suggest that the translations, which most of us can only accept on the face of it because we do not speak the languages, are provided by an authorised body, such as the Electoral Commission. In that way, the exactness of what is said is as reliable as it can be for everybody who does not speak the language because it has the assent of a completely outside body rather than one of us trying to translate. I could probably have a go at one or two translations—not of these languages—only to give rise to considerable confusion about my conjugation of German or French.

[Lord Dobbs]

My Lords, I thank noble Lords for that brief but culturally colourful debate. I wonder what my Welsh great-great-great-grandfather, who was a coal higgler, would have felt about what we are saying here today. Actually, he would have been astonished, because in those days his language would not have been given any consideration. I wish to confirm that it is absolutely not the intention in this Bill to treat Wales in anything like an inferior or secondary fashion. As my noble friend Lord Skelmersdale pointed out, Clause 1(5) makes provisions for a question in Welsh, and other provisions very clearly state that the job of making sure that the ballot paper is fair and valid is down to the Electoral Commission.

On that basis, and given the time that we are here, I entirely endorse the spirit of this amendment, but I do not think that it is necessary. I really think that the Bill already has enough provision to satisfy the main requirements, which are, of course, about Welsh, rather than Doric or the other languages that the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, has been talking about recently. As it relates to Wales, the Bill has enough in it to satisfy all those legitimate demands. On that basis, I ask him, particularly because of the late hour, to accept my apologies for a short summation and to withdraw his amendment.

[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock]

I am not sure that the Bill does actually do what the noble Lord says. It is a very skeletal Bill, as I said at the beginning of the debate this morning. It is a Bill done for a purpose. However, we have time between now and Report to have a look at the questions in relation to Gaelic and Welsh. I hope that that will be done. On that basis, I beg leave to withdraw the amendment.