Budget Resolutions and Economic Situation

John Glen Excerpts

Monday 21st March 2016 Commons Chamber

[Greg Clark]

Before the Chairman of the Select Committee comes to Budget debates, he should read the Red Book and do his homework. I am not going to help him in this debate.

Our road investment will complement rail investment. This includes the M62, accelerating progress to the achievement a four-lane smart motorway fit for the 21st century. Other improvements to both road and rail are not quite as high profile, but they are just as important—improving local links to bring home the benefit of national infrastructure.

[John Glen (Salisbury) (Con)]

Does my right hon. Friend recognise that the road improvement of most interest in the south-west is the upgrading of the A303—in particular, for my constituents, the tunnel at Stonehenge—which will transform the whole south-west peninsula?

[Greg Clark]

I do agree, and I note two things about what my hon. Friend says. The first is that this never happened when Labour were in government, and the second is that this could not have happened without the strong economy that this Government have built.

Many of these investments, such as the road just described by my hon. Friend the Member for Salisbury (John Glen), are long overdue. It has fallen to this Government to make improvements that could and should, as my hon. Friend says, have been made in earlier decades. That is why we must continue to make savings across the public sector.

Short Money

John Glen Excerpts

Tuesday 23rd February 2016 Commons Chamber

[John Penrose]

Obviously, the conclusions of the request for views will depend on what views are expressed, and I do not want to prejudge that. We will, however, want to move promptly and swiftly to make sure that any staff who might be affected by any changes that are announced have the maximum time for planning and that there is certainty as soon as there can be.

[John Glen (Salisbury) (Con)]

I regard Short money as a critical part of our democracy, but given the realistic comparison with special advisers, and the steps the Government have taken to have transparency in the publication of senior special advisers’ salaries, does the Minister not think it appropriate for the Opposition to show greater transparency in the salaries of their senior appointed researchers?

[John Penrose]

My hon. Friend, who was involved with administering Short money and policy development grants before he came into the House, knows whereof he speaks. He is right that it is essential that we demand the same transparency for taxpayers’ money in all areas. That should include not just the cost of Spads, which is already transparent, but, equally, policy development grants and Short money.

Short Money and Policy Development Grant

John Glen Excerpts

Thursday 11th February 2016 Commons Chamber

[John Penrose]

I agree with large parts of what the hon. Gentleman says. I think that the public will look at these contributions from the public purse—which taxpayers fund without choice, unlike other forms of political donation about which people do have a choice—and wonder why the political classes think that they should be exempt, particularly because, as the hon. Gentleman rightly points out, it is far more possible nowadays to do this work in an efficient fashion and to deliver greater efficiencies. I believe that he has in the past turned down potential allocations of either Short money or the policy development grant to which he was theoretically entitled, and I compliment him on that principled stand.

[John Glen (Salisbury) (Con)]

Speaking as one who managed Short money and the policy development grant for the Conservative party when we were in opposition, I think that they are critical elements of what we need in order to function effectively in a democracy. I recognise that the grants have increased significantly, but I would gently say to those on the Front Bench that when making proposals about the future of these sums and how they are to be spent, due consideration should be given to the risks of their being spent more broadly in political parties, and also the opportunities that exist to fund a great deal of the work involved from sources outside political parties in the modern age of politics.

[John Penrose]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right, and, as he says, he speaks from personal experience. I think that the crucial point we all need to remember—the guiding star—is that at some point whoever is in government will be in opposition, although I hope it will not be for a great deal of time in our case. We must therefore come up with rules that we are all happy to live with, whichever side of the aisle we are on.

Connaught Income Fund

John Glen Excerpts

Tuesday 12th January 2016 Commons Chamber

[Guto Bebb]

Again, I fully agree with my hon. Friend’s comments, and I do think that tonight’s turnout indicates the concern across the House on this issue. It is important to point out again that the proposed mediation was described as the fastest way of getting some compensation to investors, which is why the APPG welcomed it, although with some reservations. A deadline date of 31 October 2014 was offered for the completion of that mediation. Subsequently, in November 2014 the FCA announced a new date of the end of January 2015, and then in January 2015 it announced a new date of the end of March.

On 9 March 2015, I was asked to meet Martin Wheatley, the now former chief executive of the FCA, in Portcullis House, where I was informed that the FCA was withdrawing from the mediation process—that was announced the following day. Again, the decision was unilateral. In effect, the decision to go for mediation was a unilateral one made by the FCA without consulting other stakeholders, as was the decision to end the mediation. As chair of the APPG, I think it essential that the FCA explains why it took those decisions. It needs to explain why it thought it was better to end the mediation rather than continue with a method of dealing with this issue that it had claimed would be the most effective way to proceed.

[John Glen (Salisbury) (Con)]

My hon. Friend is getting to the crux of the matter. For an organisation that many of our constituents see as being an appropriate regulator and an arbiter of what should happen, this lack of accountability is totally unacceptable. The number of vulnerable people who are reliant on this organisation to act wisely means that it is outrageous that this situation is allowed to continue. Does he agree that urgent action needs to be taken by the Minister to ensure that the FCA steps up to the mark immediately?

[Guto Bebb]

I agree entirely with my hon. Friend, who has been a firm supporter of the APPG since its establishment. He makes the point we wish to make: we might be annoyed that the all-party group has not been kept informed, but we should be outraged that the investors and the stakeholders involved in the fund have also been treated with such disrespect.

Spending Review and Autumn Statement

John Glen Excerpts

Wednesday 25th November 2015 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

I do not know whether the hon. Gentleman misread the table, but public sector net borrowing is shown on page 14 as falling in every year, then it reaches a surplus.

[John Glen (Salisbury) (Con)]

I thank the Chancellor for his unswerving commitment to welfare reform, enabling him to invest in schools, defence and the NHS, and in particular for his investment in infrastructure. Can he confirm that he will continue to take a close interest in the future of science jobs at Porton and the planned investment in the A303 at Stonehenge?

[Mr Osborne]

I can give my hon. Friend that assurance. I am very keen to support the Porton science hub that he has championed and to make sure that as the public health laboratories move over a period of years, we build up a strong science hub there. That will be helped by the improved transport connections, including the huge billion-pound or so investment in the A303 past Stonehenge in his constituency.

Tax Credits

John Glen Excerpts

Thursday 29th October 2015 Commons Chamber

[Frank Field (Birkenhead) (Lab)]

I beg to move,

That this House calls on the Government to reconsider the effect on the lowest paid workers of its proposed changes to tax credits due to come into force in April 2016, to carry out and publish an analysis of that effect, and to bring forward proposals to mitigate it.

Thank you for your ruling, Mr Speaker. On behalf of the House, I thank the Backbench Business Committee, which not only acted quickly in giving us this debate but decided that we should have a whole day to debate the issue given the importance of the matters we are discussing to many of our constituents, particularly those who have the least money.

Members will have seen from the motion on the Order Paper, signed by a large number of my hon. Friends from both sides of the House, that we want to touch on three themes today. First, we call on the Government to give us more data so that we can, secondly, consider the impact of the tax credit cuts on our lower-paid constituents. Thirdly, given that there is now a debate raging in this House as well as outside it, we wanted to give the House the opportunity to suggest means by which the Government might mitigate the measures, although the debate has moved so fast that I do not think that those on the Treasury Bench are thinking merely of mitigation.

In this opening contribution I want to touch on three themes. First, I congratulate the House of Lords not on causing a constitutional crisis, but on giving the Government a well-earned opportunity to think twice about their proposals. Secondly, I shall outline the data that we need in this place to consider how the biggest change in the Budget will impact on our constituents. Thirdly, I want to start introducing the proposals that Members are putting forward not merely for mitigation, but for reform of the tax credit proposals.

First, on the lucky break that has been dealt to the Chancellor, when the Lords rejected the statutory instrument giving the Government authority to go ahead with the tax credit changes, I began to pity that no doubt young adviser in the Treasury who had thought up the wheeze of putting the measure in a statutory instrument rather than in the Budget itself. Although on many subjects we would disagree with Lloyd George, he had a certain wisdom in deciding how to protect money resolutions in this House from interference from the other place. The convention that had been developing before and was reaffirmed with legislative force then was that if a Budget motion goes from this House, the other place might wish to debate it but could not interfere with it. I pitied the career of that young adviser who suggested a wonderful wheeze not to debate it here on the Floor of the House, but to take the very essence of the Budget in a Committee stage upstairs.

Now, as more hon. Members have begun to realise the consequences of the tax credit changes, I began to think that maybe that official is for promotion, in that the procedure gives wonderful cover for the Government to engage seriously with us here and with our constituents on what might best be done both to meet the Government’s target to reduce the deficit and to make sure that any reduction is not disproportionately or to any extent put on those with the weakest shoulders. It is a huge opportunity and I hope that in the course of the debate we will see the changes and the movement that has taken place since that Budget debate.

Secondly, I make a plea for the data that this House requires so that it can understand what is involved for all our constituents, particularly those strivers who get up and work, doing some of the least privileged jobs in our society, and whom successive Governments of different complexions thought we should encourage rather than deter. It is worth remarking, although I do not wish to add any conflict to this debate, that we have to go back to Lloyd George’s debates to look at the information that he provided to the House on who would pay for his 1909 Budget—that Budget in which he enshrined it in our constitution that Budget measures were for this place and not for the other place.

Lloyd George provided far more information than the Government provided this year on who would be affected by his Budget. I know it was simpler then—he was after the landlords’ pay and he made it plain that they would pay for the measures, and that the Budget would redistribute not just to the poor, but to the poor who were not in trade unions and who at that point had no one to protect them. The Government have achieved a first—and I hope they will withdraw from this innovation—in starving the House of the necessary information.

What I would like to see from the Government is how we break down among decile groups—each 10% if the income distribution—the impact of this £4.5 billion cut in tax credits. May we have that information by each data group? There are three big changes that the Government wrought in the Budget statement. First, they reduced the earnings threshold from £6,420, lowering it to £3,850 next April. Secondly, they are abolishing the family element—the £500 that was put into the calculation —which will disappear in 2017. Thirdly, the child element, which is valued at £2,780 a year, will be lost for all children after the second child in a family.

Those measures will obviously affect different groups in all our constituencies. Given that there is a unity across the House on the idea that the necessary reductions in the budget deficit should be borne by those with the broadest shoulders, we need to look at the impact of those measures, both individually and collectively, on each decile group. Then we need to look at the impact for each type of family and for each year up to 2020.

To be fair to the Government, many of us wish them to include in that analysis the four compensatory measures that they argue will mitigate most, if not all, of those changes. For example, the Prime Minister has told the country that eight out of 10 families will be better off as a result of this year’s Budget. The truth is that eight out of 10 might well be better off, but practically all of our constituents who draw tax credits are in the two out of 10 who will be substantially worse off. I therefore hope not only that we will see a careful analysis of the cuts affecting individual families, but, in order for it to be rounded and fair, that it will include the four compensatory measures that the Government argue will mitigate the impact.

One such mitigating factor is the welcome increase in the tax threshold. When the Exchequer Secretary replies to the debate, perhaps he will be able to tell us whether all those claiming tax credits will be covered, or is the figure more like half? Let me say now—I might not have an opportunity later—that I have huge regard for him. I am sympathetic to the position he is in, because he is defending a Government brief that is on the move. I will mention a precedent that I think will cheer him. Those of us who have been in this place for some time will remember when Mrs T insisted that John Major come to the Dispatch Box to defend her policy on cold weather payments. She then heard the eruptions from the Benches behind him and decided to change the policy that afternoon, but she instructed him to tell the House that something much better was in store. I hope that the Chancellor, who is now in listening mode and thinking about what changes to make, will be similarly generous and allow the Exchequer Secretary to announce those changes, rather than seeking to take any kudos himself.

One of the big changes is the increase in the tax threshold, but only half of those who will lose out as a result of the tax credits changes will be compensated, or partly compensated, by that increase. Probably the most important positive measure that the Government will introduce in this Parliament is the significant increase in childcare for all our constituents who have children under the age of five: the number of hours of childcare for the poorest two-year-olds and all three and four-year-olds will increase to 30 a week.

The Minister who will reply to this debate has probably the most important brief of any Minister, because he now has overall responsibility for life chances. If this House is serious about ensuring that the life chances of children in the poorest households are raised to the level of children in more privileged households, we must look very carefully at how that extra money is spent and, in particular, whether our very poorest and youngest constituents get the best deal out of that childcare. The increase in childcare is probably the most important social measure that the Government are likely to introduce in this Parliament, but following close on its heels is the introduction of a national living wage.

[John Glen (Salisbury) (Con)]

The right hon. Gentleman is making a characteristically thoughtful speech, but in discussing amelioration of the third element will he acknowledge that many employers are going further than the schedule for the national living wage uplift requires? That will be massively welcome to many people across the country and will have a material impact on the four elements he is describing.

[Frank Field]

Many employers are doing so, but some are not, hence the importance of the Chancellor’s making it a statutory requirement. That demonstrates the role of law when it is used cleverly. A number of employers who previously were not interested in introducing a national living wage—in correspondence with me, they said that they would not do so—are now among those that have, in a sense, jumped the gun in introducing the Chancellor’s national living wage. That is welcome.

Oral Answers to Questions

John Glen Excerpts

Tuesday 10th March 2015 Commons Chamber

[Danny Alexander]

We take seriously the need for this country to have a set of policies that ensure the long-term health and growth of the UK economy, and the appropriate mix of fiscal policy, monetary policy and long-term investment. That is why we have the fastest growth in the United Kingdom of any advanced economy, and why there are now more than 2 million more people in work in the private sector than there were in 2010. That is a record I am proud of, and the hon. Gentleman should congratulate the Government on it.

[John Glen (Salisbury) (Con)]

When considering the allocation of LIBOR fines, will Treasury Ministers consider carefully the submission of Alabaré Christian Care in my constituency? It is seeking to construct a new veterans village in Wilton that will be transformational for veterans across Wiltshire.

[Andrea Leadsom]

I am grateful to my hon. Friend for that question. As he will know, the LIBOR fines imposed on banks for the appalling rigging of LIBOR are being used for mainly military charities, and a few other ideas have been put forward. I shall bear his remarks in mind and mention them to the Chancellor.

Oral Answers to Questions

John Glen Excerpts

Tuesday 9th December 2014 Commons Chamber

[Danny Alexander]

I guess it is a tough job being shadow Chief Secretary: he has to deal with the shadow Chancellor. I saw a quote from the previous Chancellor just this weekend, in Alan Cochrane’s diaries. It said, “I don’t think Miliband gets much of a look-in on the economy now. He’s a difficult man, is Balls.” I guess that is what they mean by a zero-zero economy: one Ed has zero influence; the other has zero credibility. Let me say this to the Labour party and to the Conservative party: both of them, in different ways, are advocating relentless austerity for the whole of the next Parliament, and it is only the Liberal Democrats turning around the public finances after 2017-18 who offer any hope of a change in the future.

[John Glen (Salisbury) (Con)]

T3. Public Health England at Porton Down in my constituency is at the centre of the global life sciences industry and works with 250 partnerships across the globe. The outline business case is currently before a number of Government Departments. Will the Minister assure me that the fullest range of options will be considered, including a proposal to set up a UK centre for a global response to infectious diseases, which I believe would reduce the call on the British taxpayer?

[Danny Alexander]

I can assure the hon. Gentleman that this is an important and, I understand, sensitive decision, which Public Health England is considering in all its aspects. The outline business case is currently with Treasury officials for scrutiny. I know that this work is incredibly important, not least given the recent Ebola outbreak in west Africa, but it would be inappropriate for me to give any further details on the business case until the review has been completed.

Office for Budget Responsibility (Manifesto Audits)

John Glen Excerpts

Wednesday 25th June 2014 Commons Chamber

[Clive Efford (Eltham) (Lab)]

I have been listening to the debate and I really do wonder what the Government are afraid of. We are talking about the democratic process. The most important people in this debate are the general public: the people who vote. What can possibly be wrong with making them better informed about the economic policies of the parties that would be in government? Opposition Members hear a lot from the Government about economic policy and the “long-term economic plan”. The Minister mentioned it four times in her speech—she may be reprimanded for not mentioning it enough. That is more than a hint about what is going to be at the heart of the debate at the next general election; we know that the economy is going to feature prominently. We also know that many people find the economic arguments put forward during an election period very complex. Some people like bits from one side and bits from the other side of the argument. They may like the idea of tax cuts but prefer their public services to be kept intact. They may like the idea of a national insurance reduction but they love their national health service. So how do they decide who is telling the truth and whose sums add up?

The Tories have been making outrageous claims about Labour’s spending commitments. We say that they are misleading people, and to prove it we are prepared to put our proposals to an independent audit by the OBR in order to say whether or not the sums add up. That is the simple element of this argument. The crux of it is: are the Government prepared to put their economic policies to an independent audit so that they can be put before the public at an election and the public can be better informed when they make up their minds? The time has come for the major parties, particularly those that might wish to take part in television debates and be taken seriously, to have their proposals independently audited by the OBR.

The OBR scrutinises Government tax policies and expenditure policies on behalf of the public, so why would we not do this for would-be Governments when there is a general election? Surely the public have a right to be as well informed as possible. The chair of the OBR agrees with that. In his letter to the Chair of the Treasury Committee, he said:

“As we have discussed, I believe that independent scrutiny of pre-election policy proposals could contribute to better policy making, to a more informed public debate, and could help facilitate coalition formation when party programmes need to be reconciled.”

So he is clear that considerable benefits would come from going through this process.

I do not think that my right hon. Friend the shadow Chancellor would mislead the House—I know he would not. He has had discussions with the chair—

[John Glen (Salisbury) (Con)]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Clive Efford]

No, I am trying to be disciplined because I have been in here too many times when people have taken loads of interventions and others have not had a chance to speak.

The Government have had plenty of time to have meetings about this issue over a long period of time. We have challenged Ministers about this, asking whether they have discussed it during any meetings. They have said in the past that they are committed to audits, so it is extraordinary that the Government cannot refer to any meeting where they have discussed this issue with the chairman of the OBR. That is an absolute disgrace; this is about having a better informed debate at a general election and they should be ashamed of themselves. Clearly, they have completely ignored this issue because they do not want to go through the process. As for the arguments about specialist skills, the chairman of the OBR is saying that he can deliver on this if we can get an agreement in principle now and if we can start to go through the details by the end of the summer. He is the first person we would go to if we were trying to set this up, so if he is saying—

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Mudie]

I follow my right hon. Friend the shadow Chancellor in not wishing to inflame matters or become party political. We are speaking about an issue that is very important to the general public and a first step to giving Back-Bench Members an input into Budgets, as the Americans, the Dutch and other Parliaments do, whereas we are simply used as voting fodder when a Chancellor presents a Budget. This is a first step and it is an important step.

It is outrageous that we are turning the motion down to protect the OBR. Members should not allow the Government to hide behind the OBR or to besmirch and lessen the reputation of Robert Chote. Robert Chote and his colleagues have carried out extremely important work. Their forecasts are not always right, but they make them sincerely and within the finite probabilities. The OBR is a very important institution. When it was first established, I thought the Chancellor had taken an extremely significant step, though not a big enough one.

Sadly, the Minister and some of my colleagues on the Treasury Committee have taken quotes out of Robert Chote’s letter of January and the minutes of the March meeting of the Treasury Committee. That should not be done. Robert Chote was asked by the distinguished Chairman of the Select Committee:

“Can I begin by asking you, do you in principle support the OBR having a role in the costing of political parties’ manifestos in the run-up to an election?”

Robert Chote replied:

“Yes, I do.”

He went on to say that this route

“does offer the prospect of improving the quality of policy development for individual parties and it potentially improves the quality of public debate in the run-up to an election”.

The Chairman, putting his finger on the real issue, which is time, asked Mr Chote:

“Do you think that you could get this job done between now and the general election?”

Mr Chote replied:

“It would be difficult but by no means impossible”

and he spelled out that the decisions to enable the OBR to do that must be taken by this summer.

[John Glen]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Mr Mudie]

No. I shall finish my point. I have quoted what Mr Chote said, but Back-Bench Members do not necessarily have a full picture of all the details and discussions that have gone on. For the Minister to say to the shadow Chancellor, “I will only believe this if you put it in writing” is quite disgraceful.

Twice, to my knowledge, Robert Chote was asked in the Committee whether he wanted to go ahead with this idea, whether he thinks it would harm his reputation and whether he has time to do it before the election—we have gone through the whole gamut—and the answer on each occasion was yes.

The Minister used the word “insuperable”, which she got from Robert Chote’s January letter, but Mr Chote did not say that the problem was insuperable: he said that the issues that she has spelt out “are certainly not insuperable”. The distinguished Chair of the Treasury Committee lured out of Robert Chote the information that tells us what is going on. He said:

“As you know, Mr Chote, I have been very keen on this idea for 20 years”,

and that was accepted; he has been. He then said:

“Have you…spoken to the Chancellor”

on this, and Robert Chote said that he had, but the Chancellor was not in favour of it for this or that reason. But then—and this goes to the core of why we have a space on the Treasury Bench—the Chair said:

“Given my enthusiasm for this idea, George’s position has been consistent but always unsupportive.”

We are not talking about there being no time to do it this year; the Chancellor of the Exchequer does not want it to happen, full stop. In other words, he does not want the public to go into a general election having the full, objective, independent assessment of all the political parties’ economic policies, and that is a disgrace.

--- Later in debate ---

[Jesse Norman (Hereford and South Herefordshire) (Con)]

I speak in part as a member of the Treasury Committee and as a member of the council of the National Institute for Economic and Social Research and a senior fellow of Policy Exchange.

One of the tragedies of modern politics is that so many issues are no longer discussed soberly and on their merits but are viewed purely through the prism of party politics. The present subject of debate—whether, and if so how, manifesto policies should be costed by the OBR—is one of potentially great importance that could shape political debate across many years and many future Parliaments.

The shadow Chancellor, who is no longer in his place, despite his strictures about the Government Benches, has attempted to politicise this debate and drag Robert Chote’s name into it. Let us simply say that expert opinion on the issue is divided. The Institute for Government has described the pre-election timing as “hasty”, and the IFS has questioned the very idea of the OBR undertaking this role. As I will show, there are several crucial issues of principle as well as practice. They must be addressed before legislation can be considered.

First, there are practical matters of funding and staffing. Let us not forget that the motion states that manifestos should be costed. Manifestos are very long and their policies are often described very briefly and vaguely, so there would be an enormous amount of work. When Mr Chote and others appear before the Treasury Committee, they refer to individual clusters of policy, not whole manifestos.

[John Glen]

Is it not also significant that there is room for great interpretative range? There is a massive number of think-tanks and analysts out there who will all draw different conclusions. The idea that one entity could somehow create a reliable and completely authoritative conclusion about any single manifesto is totally unrealistic.

[Jesse Norman]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right, and I will move on to that point shortly.

The OBR is a new institution. Would it be right to put its recently created reputation at risk by inserting it into the political process in the run-up to an election? The answer is obviously no. These issues need to be calmly and soberly addressed, not patched together late in a Parliament. The proposal would require primary legislation, which will take time and consideration. It should not be rushed into on this timetable. The Institute for Government was perfectly clear that it should not be adopted as a hasty change to the OBR’s remit at this point in the Parliament.

The second question is this: would such a new role compromise the OBR’s key functions? There is an obvious danger that it might. The remit would require careful amendment. Clear rules would be needed on how many policies could be costed, if not a full manifesto, and on which political parties would be eligible. The OBR could not be expected to invigilate in hard cases or act as judge on these issues. It would undoubtedly be attacked by parties that were ineligible to have their policies costed.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Robert Syms (Poole) (Con)]

I spent 13 years in opposition in this House, and I sat through several Budget speeches under the Labour Government. They were interesting, to say the least, because it usually took some weeks to find out, having read the small print, what they actually meant. At that time, we were told that boom and bust had been abolished. I very well remember the debate we had when it was revealed that the deficit was £164 billion.

This Government had a very tough economic inheritance. We would not be in coalition if we had not, because normally, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives enjoy fighting each other all the time, but the problems of the country were so damn serious that we had to get together to try to sort them out. That is the legacy of how the last Labour Government managed our economy.

One of the important things in 2010 was credibility. Confidence in the markets was very shaky, and the OBR was part of a range of policies that the Government introduced to add some degree of independence, so that people had more confidence in what the Government were going to do and in the figures and, indeed, so that the City and forecasters could see the direction of British policy. It was a limiting factor, because no longer could the Government adjust the growth factors or the tax take to show a rosier scenario, so that they could cut taxes. They had to live within the framework set by the OBR.

But I do not think the OBR is some kind of magic bullet. All forecasters are, by their nature, wrong. What we have seen throughout the last four years is forecasts from the OBR go up and go down with the economic cycle, and the Opposition, on many occasions, have accused us of having large deficits and putting up the national debt on the basis of OBR forecasts. As the economy is now growing and they are going the other way, no doubt we are praying in aid the OBR that things are getting better and we are getting on top of the problem.

The reality is that the OBR is a small body of public servants who do their best to give some independent credibility to Government policy. If I were to focus additional money or resources, it would be on having a few more people in the OBR rooting around in what our Government are doing, rather than in what the Opposition might do. Even today, when we look at budgets and financial statements, the reality is that there are still a lot of figures about tax avoidance and Swiss agreements to bring in more taxation that ought to be rooted around in by the OBR to see whether or not the Government forecasts are robust, because the OBR is dealing with matters of fact. It is dealing with the Government, with public spending and with how a country is being run.

I do not think that focusing on what the Opposition may or may not do is a terribly good way of spending money. Would it have been a good use of money for civil servants to spend a lot of time looking at what the leadership plans of my right hon. Friend the Member for Richmond (Yorks) (Mr Hague) were for the country? Simply on the basis of the 2001 election, no. Would there have been a lot of benefit in looking at the plans of my right hon. Friend the Member for Chingford and Woodford Green (Mr Duncan Smith) or of Michael Howard? The only time when there might have been some benefit would have been before 2010, when it looked like there would be a change of Government.

[John Glen]

Is the other lesson not that in government, decisions are made as a consequence of actions that are being taken in other parts of the Government and, in fact, the costs of delivering some programmes are very different when those decisions have to be taken? Therefore, any judgment would be somewhat qualified.

[Mr Syms]

Yes, and lots of assumptions would still have to be made. Clearly, my hon. Friend the Member for Chichester (Mr Tyrie), the Chair of the Treasury Committee, made some very good points about ground rules that ought to be discussed in peacetime. If this is an idea worth exploring, it is better to explore it in a relatively more peaceful political time post the 2015 election to see whether it has some merit.

I think that the greater benefit for public debate in this Chamber between the parties is a greater focus on what the Government are doing with their plans. That would give more information to the Opposition and Back Benchers to question and hold the Government to account, rather than focusing on the hypotheticals of what may or may not happen if, indeed, the Government change. Not least, if the focus is on manifestos—they come out in March before an election, at the last possible moment, so that there are nice surprises for the newspapers—how on earth could the OBR look at those and objectively give any kind of costing before the election?

Looking at the future programme, in the autumn, we have the autumn statement and all the spending plans. We are then immediately into the Budget, and just beyond that, we are into a general election. It is bad enough trying to predict what the Government are doing, let alone what the Labour party are trying to do at that time. As I said at the start of my speech, any kind of forecast is bound to be wrong, so the OBR would be wrong about what the Government are doing and wrong about what the Labour party is doing.

National Infrastructure Plan

John Glen Excerpts

Wednesday 4th December 2013 Commons Chamber

[Danny Alexander]

I am grateful for that question. I will mention a couple of things. First, Scotland within the United Kingdom is one of the key places for developing renewable energy, particularly offshore wind. I hope that the strike price that we have set out today will be a real benefit to investors and potential investors in Scotland. Secondly, the availability of a lower rate from the Public Works Loan Board—in other words, cheaper borrowing for local authorities for key local infrastructure projects—is being extended from local enterprise partnerships in England to local authorities in Scotland and Wales, so that those areas, too, can benefit from it. Cheaper borrowing is one of the things that we certainly would not get if Scotland were ever independent. That is further confirmation of why we are better together.

[John Glen (Salisbury) (Con)]

In welcoming the news about the progress on the feasibility study for the A303, will the Chief Secretary bear in mind my constituents’ concerns about Stonehenge and Winterbourne Stoke? Unless that area is properly unblocked, people will not be able to get down to Devon to enjoy Tiverton and Honiton. This has been going on for several generations, and we need to make sure that it is sorted in any plans that come forward next year.

[Danny Alexander]

I think Stonehenge has been there for more than several generations, and I do not intend to remodel it at this Dispatch Box or anywhere else. My hon. Friend is absolutely right to draw attention to one of the issues on that route. We are conducting the feasibility study to work out what are the right steps to take at every stage. I am sure that his concerns will have been heard by colleagues in the Department for Transport, and I will certainly make sure that they are taken on board, as the feasibility plan is developed.