Autumn Statement Resolutions

Ian Blackford Excerpts

Wednesday 22nd November 2023 Commons Chamber

[Harriett Baldwin (West Worcestershire) (Con)]

What a difference a year has made to this country’s finances and to the economy. Last year, our inflation rate was 11.1%; it is now down to 4.6%. It is still too high, but that is enormous progress, thanks to the independent Bank of England and the decisions taken in this Chamber a year ago to manage the public finances prudently, in a way that would not increase inflation. We need to reflect on the progress that we have made in our economy. From listening to the—I am not going to use unparliamentary language—speech of the Opposition spokesperson, the hon. Member for Ealing North (James Murray), we would not think that anything had changed from a year ago. Things have changed enormously.

This time last year, our economy was reeling from the energy shock caused by Putin’s evil invasion of Ukraine. It was thanks to the help given through the energy price cap that households were able to get through last winter. I do not need to remind the House how serious inflation is for the poorest households. It is the worst tax on our economy, our businesses, and people’s budgets. It is a truly evil problem, and it is right that it has been the No. 1 focus of the Prime Minister and the Government this year.

Clearly, with inflation at 4.6% there is still more to do. Yesterday, the Treasury Committee heard from the Governor of the Bank of England. The Bank of England is forecasting that we will get to a 2% handle, probably by the end of next year. That is in line with what the Office for Budget Responsibility is saying. Clearly, there are still risks to the upside. Energy prices continue to be volatile, but the Governor told our Committee yesterday that it is the inflation-busting hikes in rates that have generated the increased payments that our constituents are facing on their mortgages. Therefore, when the hon. Member for Ealing North says that these are Tory mortgage hikes, that is just throwing mud and trying to make it stick. It will not stick, however, because I am hopeful that rates are now high enough to bring inflation back down under control. In the analogy the Bank of England uses, we have marched to the top of Table mountain and are now walking across the top of the mountain, and the markets are now forecasting that the next rate change will be a decrease.

[Ian Blackford (Ross, Skye and Lochaber) (SNP)]

Does the hon. Lady remember the Budget of just over a year ago, which crashed the economy, sent interest rates spiralling and sent mortgage rates up? We must not forget that there is an interest rate premium in the UK over much of the rest of the western world, and that is forecast to remain for years to come because, sadly, it is down to the long-term mismanagement of the UK economy, which the Tory Government must take responsibility for.

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[Harriett Baldwin]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right. Central banks around the world have lessons to learn from this recent bout of inflation, but I am comforted by the evidence we got yesterday from the Governor, which, while acknowledging there are still risks to the upside, shows that the world is on a trajectory of having dealt with this.

[Ian Blackford]

I am grateful to the hon. Lady and the hon. Member for Torbay (Kevin Foster) because they have made key points. We have heard lots today about growth, but the US has grown at an average rate of about 1% more than us over the last decade, and forecasts for its growth for the years to come are also higher. We need to get real about what growth looks like and what sustainable economic growth is, but the fact remains that UK interest rates are above those in the European Union and have remained above those of the western world for most of the last decade, and will remain above those of the rest of the world for many years to come.

[Harriett Baldwin]

The right hon. Gentleman might think the UK should join the euro, but I shall fight strongly against him on that campaign.

I want to return to the theme of what a difference a year has made in terms of the public finances. It is remarkable to see how the priorities in the autumn statement are being delivered. First, that is seen in reducing debt, something all on this side of the House are keen on otherwise we are just passing on the costs to our children and grandchildren. Last year’s forecast was 94.6%, which still feels uncomfortably high to me, and that is why I welcome that in today’s autumn statement debt is falling to 92.7% in the same year. I encourage the Chancellor to keep on moving in that direction.

The challenge now is to support growth, and non-inflationary growth above all. The Chancellor announced 110 measures. I have gone through the small print of the documentation, and I do not think I have got to the bottom of all 110 of them yet, but I hope we shall do so when we take evidence from him, the OBR and independent economists next week. I welcome that the OBR is revising growth up this year, however, and that the measures announced in the statement were taken through the lens of making sure inflation continues to decline.

Cutting tax is also an important priority because it rewards hard work, and it is good that earnings are again growing faster than inflation, which means households up and down the country are seeing disposable incomes rise once again.

We all know that work is the best route out of poverty. I cannot stress how important the announcement on the national living wage is, because it means that those working full time on the national living wage now have an income of over £22,000, taking them over the poverty line. With so many vacancies in our economy, that will give more people the opportunity to work their way out of poverty. So I thank the Chancellor for that reform, and for the fact that now the income of the lowest paid comes predominantly from work, whereas in 2010 the income of those on the lowest pay was primarily from welfare. We can be proud of that real shift.

I was pleased to hear measures about the grid in the autumn statement. Building sustainable domestic energy will require improving our grid, and building more renewables and new nuclear and domestic oil and gas.

I was very pleased to see the measures backing British businesses as well, because ultimately it is British businesses that will help our country grow and tackle the important productivity challenge and deliver more jobs and prosperity for the British people.

I look forward to encouraging the Chancellor to think about simplifying even more. There were some simplifications that I welcome in today’s autumn statement, particularly in terms of national insurance for the self-employed. I look forward to seeing the detail of the measures that will help our constituents invest their savings and get better rewarded for their pensions by being able to access advice more easily. Measures the Chancellor can take in terms of the advice guidance boundary will help enormously.

I welcome, too, the funding for a world class education. Schools in my constituency will welcome that record level of per pupil funding in real terms.

In conclusion, I am delighted to see many of these measures and look forward to scrutinising more of them in detail, and I am particularly pleased that the Chancellor did not heed the Opposition’s advice to borrow £28 billion more every year.

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[Drew Hendry (Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey) (SNP)]

It is a pleasure to follow the hon. Member for West Worcestershire (Harriett Baldwin), the Chair of the Treasury Committee, which I have recently joined.

I shall concentrate on the choices the Chancellor and his Government have made. Government is about choices; it is about choosing priorities and who to help, and choosing the future we want to create. Today the Chancellor chose his priorities, and he chose to ignore the millions struggling with the cost of living crisis. The OBR has confirmed this afternoon that the UK is still on course for the largest reduction in living standards since the 1950s. Of all those struggling or who cannot pay their bills or are worried about heating their homes, the decision today was pretty much to ignore them. The Chancellor is either offering no comfort or cold comfort. The BMJ warned last month that the cost of living crisis “will cut lives short”. The Chancellor’s choices mean the Government are saying to millions of people, “We don’t care.”

The Chancellor could have looked at VAT cuts, especially in tourism and hospitality, to boost spending and lower inflation. He could have taken action to reduce the level of the energy price cap or introduced an energy social tariff; he has not done so. The national insurance measures announced today will not make up for the inflationary price increases in mortgages, rents and food and energy bills, which will still be higher than last year. I misspoke earlier when I said that the UK is still paying the highest tax for seven years; it is paying the highest tax for 70 years. No action today on people’s housing costs, no action on food prices, no action on energy costs, but never mind—at least bankers’ bonuses are now unlimited.

Let us start with food costs. Food prices in the UK are still climbing at an alarming rate and the trend of increasing costs remains. The UK’s food price inflation is double that of Ireland and Estonia, for example. The Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy notes Brexit’s role in increasing UK import prices by 11% and analysis by the London School of Economics earlier this year showed that the UK had the highest food price inflation in the industrialised world. It remains sky-high.

The Chancellor’s inaction on food prices is glaring. As people worry at the checkout, companies such as Marks & Spencer are reporting record profits on food sales. Consumer rights organisation Which? has expressed concerns over dodgy pricing and loyalty card practices, yet the Government remain silent on discussing food bills with supermarkets. There is nothing from Labour either; when Labour goes shopping at Sainsbury’s, it is for millions in donations. The SNP is left to fight for families over food costs.

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation paints a grim picture of the impact of those inflated costs, with many struggling to afford basic food items. The foundation’s chief economist emphasises the severity of the situation for lower-income households, with essential goods unaffordable for millions. That unaffordability is creeping upwards, with those who previously saw themselves as relatively comfortable now also feeling the squeeze.

The Chancellor had a choice. The Government could have heeded the Bank of England’s warnings about skyrocketing food inflation and they did not do so. France got companies to commit to freezing or cutting prices on 5,000 everyday products. In Canada, the five largest grocery chains made an initial commitment to help to stabilise food prices and say that that is just the beginning of their work. For six months, the Greek Government covered 10% of food expenses for households, funded by a windfall tax on two oil refineries.

Here in the UK, we have the Joseph Rowntree Foundation’s stark warning that millions cannot afford basic food items. Food bank use has grown a further 10%, according to the Trussell Trust, and donations to food banks, usually collected at supermarkets, are also dramatically down. We have a situation where not only do more people need food, but fewer people have the spare money to donate food. Unlike the Chancellor, people using food banks do not have choices.

The Chancellor could have made some choices on energy costs this winter. Before his speech today, one in four social housing households had already reduced their heating to save costs. He decided not to reinstate the energy bill rebate. It is not enough. Before his speech today, energy bills still remained double what they were in 2021, and Cornwall Insight predicts that energy prices will remain high until the 2030s. Where does the Chancellor think folk are getting the money from? It is not coming from any long-term measures today—there is no social tariff, he has not decoupled gas prices from renewables, and the SNP’s call for the reinstatement of the £400 energy bill rebate, which would have gone a long way to help in the short term, has been ignored.

The Chancellor could have chosen to act on that and he chose not to. He chose not to help the two thirds of people who live in a household where someone is suffering from a pre-existing health condition or is disabled and worried about being cold this winter. He should have committed to increasing working-age benefits in line with inflation next year as well and legislated for an essentials guarantee, giving basic necessities to those who need them most. Instead, as we heard, he intends to punish the sick. People who are sick and unable to work are already regularly being referred to work coaches. I have had constituents of mine, who were listed as having cancer or indeed as being terminally ill, being told to report to a work coach. This is just another step further to the right for the nasty party.

The Chancellor chose not to help the more than one third of households with children under five, the pregnant, or people over 65 with pre-existing health conditions who think they will not or may not be able to afford to put the heating on at all this winter. He chose not to help the millions of people already struggling with mounting energy debts. Citizens Advice expects that the number of people unable to top up their prepayment meters will be nearly half as high again as it was in 2022. Meanwhile, National Energy Action found that more than one third of adults are expected to struggle to afford to pay their heating bills this winter.

The Chancellor did not even listen to the pleas of charities. Ofgem has reported that energy debt has reached £2.6 billion—its highest level ever. A quarter of people are now behind on at least one bill, and we are not even in the heart of winter. Does anybody think that that figure is going to be lower come January? Energy bills and council tax arrears are the most commonly encountered debts for households.

What does that mean for the Scottish people? According to Ofgem, northern and southern Scotland, which are colder, rural areas, pay two of the four highest standing rates of all the regions of the UK.

[Ian Blackford]

One of the inequities we suffer from is the regional distribution market, which means that people in the highlands—the coldest, wettest and windiest part of the United Kingdom—pay the highest prices. The real scandal is the fact that the highlands is a net exporter of energy, and we get charged to export the energy from the highlands. That is the reality of Westminster control over Scotland’s energy. We have the energy, they have the power and we pay the price.

[Drew Hendry]

I could not agree more with my right hon. Friend. According to the House of Commons Library, in energy-rich, energy-exporting Scotland, energy costs make up 5.3% of total spending, while in England they make up only 4.4%. We have an energy-rich country, a centre of excellence for renewables where many people can literally look out of their windows and see the energy being generated, yet some of them cannot even afford to put on the heating. It is unacceptable. Reinstating the energy bill rebate was a necessary short-term policy that the Chancellor chose to ignore. He should go back and reconsider that decision. In independent Ireland, the Government will introduce €450 in energy bills support to all households to help them through the winter.

Now let us look at housing. More than 300,000 Scottish homeowners have seen their mortgage payments skyrocket, soaring by an average of £2,500 per year. That is a direct result of the choices of this Chancellor’s predecessor—choices that drove interest rates to punishing heights. Nor does the pain stop with homeowners; despite what has been announced today to help renters, they are equally trapped, as rents will continue to surge despite those measures. Today’s measures are a drop in the ocean compared with the pressure they face.

The majority of buy-to-let landlords, grappling with those interest hikes, have no choice but to pass the costs on. The result is rent increases that outpace inflation, squeezing every last penny from tenants. Of course, the Chancellor is no stranger to hiking rents for his own tenants well above inflation rates, as has been reported this week. If he had delivered the extra funding across the UK to fund public services and fair public sector pay awards, we could all do a bit more to help—but, of course, he chose not to. That will not change the fact that UK households now spend a fifth of their disposable income on housing, surpassing the EU average of 17.4%. For renters, the figure is even more alarming: it is almost a quarter of their income. Yet while other European countries similar in size or smaller than Scotland implement welfare policies to reduce poverty, the UK Government’s response, as we have heard today, is to punish the most vulnerable.

The statement should have been about helping people to survive and helping our economy towards proper growth. Instead, growth is barely above zero and is not expected to climb by more than fractions—if indeed it does not decline. The Chancellor could have increased the Scottish Government’s capital budget in line with inflation, which would have helped us to build even more social housing and vital infrastructure. He chose not to.

Costs for insurance, mobile phone bills and other household basic requirements are also ballooning at the moment. A House of Commons Library report found that since January 2022, UK car insurance inflation grew exponentially, peaking at 43.1% in May this year. Before the Conservatives tell us that that is not down to their Brexit fixation, let me add that our European neighbours saw either no rise, or limited rises of only up to 6%, while car insurance inflation in both Belgium and Ireland has actually reduced. Here, households face cost rise after cost rise after cost rise, and people are begging for it to stop.

The Chancellor still wants us to believe that we are on the path to sound fiscal management. How many times will the Conservatives tell us that there is no money to support people with the cost of living—that there is no money tree—while they find room for what they want to do? Let us have a look at some of the priorities they have managed to fund while they have been in office. The infamous mini-Budget managed to overshadow some staggering stories of fiscal mismanagement. It is a showcase for how not to spend taxpayer money.

First, there was High Speed 2, which started as a £32 billion rail project, exploded into an eye-watering £100 billion project, and then, in a twist, was cancelled—from a dream to a debt nightmare for taxpayers. Despite cutting the project, the Government somehow lost £2.3 billion on a Manchester to Birmingham line that leads nowhere. There was the £5.6 billion on tanks that are 12 years late and not in service; the £2 billion supposedly for aircraft carriers, but which turned out to be £6 billion when one of them had to be stripped for parts for the others; and let us not overlook the £105.6 million splurged on now redundant architectural plans for Euston station—those plans are now as useful as a chocolate teapot. The Elizabeth line is a classic case of too little, too late—five years delayed and £4 billion over budget. And who can forget the covid supplies fiasco? A staggering £15 billion was spent on unusable personal protective equipment, tests and the rest—a fast-track to profits for a few, including an infamous inhabitant of the House of Lords, and a financial burden for our people to share.

The Ministry of Justice was not far behind with its £98 million electronic tagging misadventure. There was the £900,000 paint job for the Prime Minister’s aeroplane, because fiscal responsibility means flying in style, obviously; the £5 million spent to confirm what we already knew, that MPs must vacate the Palace of Westminster for renovations—paying double for the privilege of checking; and the £120 million spent on the Brexit festival. I have no words to add to that. Finally, let us not forget the £100,000 spent on a fake bell-bonging mechanism for Big Ben—try saying that, let alone paying £100,000 for it. Those are choices that those in Westminster make time and again—choices that speak volumes about their priorities—while our constituents struggle with the cost of living. They are disconnected from the harsh realities faced by the public. They do not just misspend money; they throw it out of the plane they have just repainted.

What of choices for a better future? Where is the ambition on net zero? The Conservatives have chucked it. It is utterly bizarre that, as other advanced economies invest in net zero and jobs, the UK goes backwards. Instead of grasping the gold rush of renewables, they dither and delay, just as they did for carbon capture at Peterhead. UK business investment has grown by just under 1% a year since 2016, and 6% overall; by comparison, it has grown 25% in the US. Right now in the US, the Inflation Reduction Act is helping businesses and communities to grow through radical plans to invest in renewables and hydrogen. Are the UK Government looking to maximise the supply chain benefits for Scotland and elsewhere? No. They are focused on their climate change culture war, costing Scotland millions, if not billions, in potential investment.

The SNP Scottish Government choose differently. We value investing in our future—in green energy, in a fairer society. That is another reason why the UK Government should have focused on funding net zero, at the very least matched the Scottish Government’s £500 million fund for a just transition in the north-east of Scotland, and included funding for offshore wind projects in Scotland. Our values lead us to want to alleviate poverty. We seek measures now and in the future to help people with that: a council tax freeze, investment in childcare, no tuition fees, and using our limited powers to mitigate the cruel policies from this place, such as the rape clause and the bedroom tax. We choose to put people first; those are our values—values that build a fairer, more prosperous Scotland.

The Scottish Government have taken the steps that they can to help alleviate the worst impacts of poverty, offering people a degree of stability through the council tax freeze and a cap on rent increases. We would do more, but the fiscal powers needed are here. If we had the power to help people today, we would. The Chancellor has the power to help people, but he refused to lift a finger to right some of the wrongs that his Government have inflicted on people. People are not this Government’s priority—we see who goes through their priority lanes.

The UK Government have little to offer Scotland. Our route out of the chaos that Westminster has created—perma-austerity and the cost of living nightmare that people are having to endure—is through independence and re-joining the European Union.

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[Priti Patel]

The right hon. Lady is correct and makes an important point. I do not want to be boxing the ears of my hon. Friends on the Treasury Bench today, which is their day, but I sound like a broken record on this subject. I would go for complete streamlining and simplification of the tax system, even on NI, where I would like to see measures such as the merger of income tax and NI. I would love to see a simple system where we do not have the burdens of bureaucracy. Even when we spoke about full expensing in the Budget, the business and regulatory implications are pretty vast. The childcare measures are very good and encouraging, but from, a personal perspective, even more complexities are being introduced to the system and we, as Conservatives, could do much more to streamline that.

[Ian Blackford]

I encourage the right hon. Lady on what she said about the integration of tax and national insurance. Although such measures are not without their complications, they can be overcome, so perhaps there should be some work across the House to examine that issue. Let us make things simpler and more straightforward for all our taxpayers.

[Priti Patel]

We could have a separate debate on a single income tax and all sorts of other measures. I would like to see tax transparency as well. I am so old-fashioned that I think we should be able to follow every pound of Government expenditure, and that there should be far greater transparency for the public in that regard. I am sure that the hon. Member for Hackney South and Shoreditch (Dame Meg Hillier) would support that, too, from her perspective as Chair of the Public Accounts Committee. I do not say these things lightly. In this modern day, when we have much greater digitalisation and access to information, our constituents naturally also want to see more transparency in that area, especially while the Government are investing in artificial intelligence and all sorts of other things, including bots. His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs could be run by bots before we know it, although on that basis alone we might get more efficient telephone conversations and call handling. None the less, more needs to be done, and we should welcome that.

I will move on to a couple of other measures, but just while we are on the subject of taxation and revenues, I wish to make a point about the savings that can be made from Government efficiencies. This matter has not been addressed today, but the Chancellor did touch on it. There is much more work that needs to be done in this area, although I appreciate that this is an autumn statement and not a full-fat Budget. For the spring in particular, this is one area where we can do much more in boosting state productivity. The Chancellor always mentions the P word—productivity—but in 2021-22, just as an illustration, the Government delivered £4.4 billion-worth of efficiency savings. In monetary terms, that was significant, but it represented just 0.4% of public expenditure —a drop in the ocean. For the benefit of our constituents, let me say that that is £1 for every £250 spent. Again, much more needs to be done in that area.

Let me continue on the theme of hard-pressed taxpayers. This was not mentioned today, but at previous fiscal events I have voiced support for the fuel price escalator. I believe that we should do much more to back our motorists and make sure that the 5p cut in fuel duty, which was introduced in 2022, is maintained. There is some important signalling that we can do as a Government to ensure that the UK’s 37 million drivers are not seen as a cash cow. We must back them and continue to remain on their side.

That brings me to business taxes. Our economy relies on private enterprise. I am an Essex MP, and Essex is the county of entrepreneurs. Some 80% of my constituents work for small and medium-sized enterprises, which is 20% higher than the national average. We are proud of those SMEs, but we really need them to keep their head above water. That is why we must always support businesses —small businesses as well as big businesses. It is the small businesses that are the engines of economic growth.

I am proud to represent a county where we have businesses that are hungry to innovate and invest, and I want the Government to free them from the shackles that hold them back. A lot of that is regulation and red tape; and there is far too much of that. I have previously called for a freeze of the small business rate multiplier, and I am pleased that the Chancellor has agreed. That in its own right will have some benefits. I know that it has been reinstated for another year, along with other retail and hospitality measures. Retail and hospitality are burgeoning and important sectors that can help to boost our struggling high streets.

I welcome the continuation of business support with full expensing, which I have touched on, but there should be greater clarity over how that will operate, what it will mean for businesses, and the burdens that it will place on the sector. Will firms have to employ an army of accountants who will eat into their business expenses? Reducing overall taxes on businesses is, of course, welcome. It will help firms to invest, to create jobs and to boost supply, which is incredibly important.

When I call on businesses to invest, that also means that we must do much more to get them to invest in skills. Skills and productivity are the biggest challenges that we face. I would, at some stage, like to press those on the Treasury Front Bench on why we are still not committing ourselves to a labour market strategy around some of the key sectors where we know we have shortages in skills growth. When it comes to specialist sectors, we want to be the hub for technology, innovation and science, so we need to consider what more we can do. We also need to consider the work that is required around the green economy. As a former Home Secretary, I can say that we rely far too heavily on migration to fulfil our labour market needs. For the past five years, even when in Government, I have consistently and continuously called for that to be addressed. It sits with the Treasury, not just the DWP, and I urge the Chancellor to make good on those calls. I have discussed it with him several times.

I want to speak about the importance of the energy sector. The Chancellor touched on connectivity to the national grid in today’s autumn statement. I am an Essex MP. Off the coast of the east of England, we have enormous potential when it comes to increasing our energy security, because we have been successful in producing renewable energy offshore. We are effectively a hub in the east of England, where we have had investment. Efforts to develop the sector and increase renewable energy are welcome, and we are proud of the work that has taken place, but we are now suffering from the lack of strategic planning.

Windfarms have received consent and been developed without serious thought being given to interoperability and connection to the network and to the grid. That has resulted in one of the most deeply unpopular policies from central Government, which is now affecting the whole of the east of England: the National Grid’s plan to cover the east of England countryside with over 100 miles of pylons and overhead power lines. Our constituents do not support that. I am fully aware of what the Winser review says, and of the prospect of support—financial bribes, as my constituents call it—for local residences, but we need to ensure that there is proper engagement.

We are putting forward alternatives to pylons, and offshore options that we want to work with the Government to develop. That would support our renewables sector, bringing further skills to our region and our country. Ultimately, we have to address the issue of local constituents feeling frustrated. They resent that this is being done to them, rather than it being their suggestions and some of the local investment being taken into consideration. There is a sense that decisions are being made in an opaque way and that their views are being ignored. I would welcome better dialogue and consultation from the Government on this.

The Chancellor touched on the fact that devolution deals are under way. This is a work in progress for us in Essex. I would very much like to engage with the Treasury and the Government on what a greater devolution deal would mean for our fantastic county, particularly when it comes to investment in skills and infrastructure. Devolution deals can promise the earth, but central Government have to deliver the goods, and it has to translate into a return on the investment locally. In Essex, we are net contributors to the Treasury, so we can apply the multiplier effect and work out where we are getting the benefits, and where we are not getting our return on the investment. We should have further discussions on that.

I welcome the direction of travel in the autumn statement. The Chancellor has opened the door to sound economic principles of lower taxes. I welcome the support for business, which is fundamental. I urge everyone on the Government Front Bench to continue to look at ways to lower taxes, including personal taxes. Times have been tough for the British public. We want to ensure that all our constituents are able to keep more of the money that they earn, and ultimately have a secure economic future.

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[Ian Blackford (Ross, Skye and Lochaber) (SNP)]

It is a pleasure to follow the hon. Member for North East Bedfordshire (Richard Fuller). I understand the points he made about taxation. There have to be limits on how we tax people, families, businesses and so on, but the position we are in today underscores the need to deliver sustainable economic growth, because that will deliver the tax receipts that allow us to invest in our public services.

The autumn statement is clearly framed with the next UK election in mind. While some of the measures are welcome—I particularly welcome the announcement of the reallocation of the Inverness and Highland city region deal, allowing £20 million in funding for the Corran ferry in my constituency, which will be well received by the community in the Ardnamurchan peninsula and others—overall the autumn statement is a missed opportunity to deal with the structural weaknesses in the UK economy, while recognising the pressures felt from the cost of living crisis.

Let us reflect on the headroom referred to by the hon. Member for North East Bedfordshire. In large measure, that has been caused by the inflationary aspects on taxation receipts. Much of the gloss of the headline tax cuts will wash away when people realise the harsh reality: inflation will erode the fantasy that the Chancellor is making folk better off, and, as have heard, fiscal drag is real issue. While much of the focus is on the short term, where is the vision to sustainably grow the economy for the long term? Interestingly, when we look at the OBR book, we find that business investment is forecast to fall from 10.9% of GDP this year to 9.7% by 2029. The illusion that we will see an explosion of investment growth is not borne out by the analysis of the Office for Budget Responsibility.

We can debate the source of the pressure on public finances, but absence of growth fundamentally caps the growth in tax receipts that would allow us to invest in infrastructure and our public services, and ultimately pay down our accumulated debt through the delivery of growth. The harsh reality is that the United Kingdom is falling down the league tables for investment and growth, which affects all of us here and is all too apparent to all our constituents and communities.

Let us look at the OBR forecasts: GDP growth of 0.6% for this year, 0.7% for next year and 1.4% for the year after. That is an average of 1.4% over the six-year period forecast. I do not know how the Chancellor classifies a high-growth economy—but, my goodness, this is not it. It is a fantasy if those on the Tory Benches believe that this autumn statement delivers high and sustainable growth; quite simply, it does not.

By comparison, let us look at the International Monetary Fund forecast for the US: growth of 1.6% this year, 1.1% next year and 1.8% the year after, and an economy that has outpaced the UK on average by 1% a year over the last decade. That is the reality of how the UK has fallen behind over the period of Tory Governments since 2010. The UK has failed on growth since the financial crisis and, on today’s forecasts, the UK will continue to fail on growth. To quote the phrase to the Chancellor: “It’s the economy, stupid”.

Let us look at the reality of policy failure in broken Britain. The Resolution Foundation suggests that the current parliamentary term is on track to be the worst for living standards since at least the 1950s. The OBR suggests that real wages will only get back to the 1998 level in 2028: two decades of no growth in real wages—yet you wouldn’t believe any of that when you hear the bùrach coming from the Tory Benches. Why do they not just admit that over the course of their Administration—and thank goodness it is coming to an end—people have got poorer?

We can talk about the tax burden and we can talk about the investments they have trumpeted, but the harsh reality is that what we have seen is a massive, massive mismanagement of the economy. I ask colleagues across the House to dwell on that, and the Chancellor and his Treasury team to accept the failure of financial management that has resulted in such poor outcomes. My goodness, what a disgrace. With our debt and taxation burdens, people have got poorer. Those on the Government Benches should look at themselves in the mirror and at what they have presided over.

It is not just a failure of leadership and management in this parliamentary term; the problems run much deeper. In particular, we have been stuck with a low-growth economy since the financial crisis of 2008. Low growth, low investment and low productivity growth led to that lost decade and that squeeze on living standards.

When we think back to the period post the financial crisis, the only game in town was quantitative easing; much of it was required, but there were two failures. The complete misalignment between monetary and fiscal policy for much of the period meant that the circumstances to create sustainable economic growth could not be delivered. The failure of that lies at the door of this Tory Government. Then the continued printing of money through the QE scheme was one, but not the only, cause of the increase in inflation that we have seen. The Government say that they are not responsible for the increase in inflation to 11.1%—of course recognising the independence of the Bank of England, but let us not kid ourselves about the alignment that takes place—but much of that increase in inflation was a failure of policy, in particular a failure of policy at the time of covid. Let us accept some responsibility where it is necessary to do so.

The Government had some cheek congratulating themselves on the decline in inflation when the increase in the first place was driven by policy failure. Although the growth in inflation is falling, let us please not forget that it is hurting ordinary folk. We know about the continued increase in food prices, the cost of energy, and the painful choices that people are having to make. The lack of direct support to counteract all that is hitting home for millions of folk who are struggling to make ends meet.

Tomorrow the energy cap will be announced, and it is expected to increase from £1,800 to £1,900. That is the reality of what is happening to people—that increase in cost and the impact on consumers. Of course, there is also the fact that the Bank of England is warning that interest rates will remain high, and millions will face the impact of rising mortgage costs yet to come. And let us remember that the international markets attach a risk premium to the UK; our interest rates will remain higher for longer than our international counterparts, and that has been the case for a while now.

What we see with the tax cuts that are being trumpeted today is that our UK economy is very much based on a trade and current account deficit. What happens in the end is that the currency takes the hit and investors say they want a premium to hold UK assets. Again, that is the failure of long-term planning for the UK economy—not just the disastrous Budget last year, but the penalty of being in the UK, and for us in Scotland of being in broken Britain.

Let me return to the future and to the questions about vision and the sort of economy that the UK is. Fundamentally, the UK is a trading economy, not a manufacturing economy. When we are discussing this autumn statement and the prospects for growth, we cannot ignore the self-harm of Brexit or the lost growth opportunity that impacts the UK to the tune of 4% of our GDP—when we are struggling for growth, we actually inflict that self-harm on ourselves. Just look at the OBR forecast for growth. Where is the plan to change this? Where is the green industrial strategy?

I am delighted that the Scottish Government have been presented with an industrial strategy—it is sitting with the Government now—because we recognise the enormous opportunity that there is to increase our green energy output fivefold and to create, between now and 2050, 325,000 jobs. What a contrast it is to have a Government who will make sure that we have that just transition, who will prioritise investment in net zero, and who will make sure that we tackle fuel insecurity. The Scottish Government estimate that there are 830,000 fuel-poor households in Scotland—a third of all our households. It is a scandal that energy-rich Scotland is paying the price for the failure of UK energy policy. It clearly demonstrates that, while we have the power in Scotland, Westminster has control—and in Scotland, we pay the price.

Let me wrap up. The UK Government should have reinstated the £400 energy bill support scheme. Protecting people from the cost of living crisis should have been a priority in the autumn statement. My colleagues in the Scottish Government, through initiatives such as the Scottish child payment, are helping to drive young people and families out of poverty. We understand the importance of using our capital funding to strengthen the conditions for economic growth, but we are having to do that while our capital budget is being constrained and cut by the UK. That is the real-terms cost to Scotland of being held back by broken Britain—

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Dame Rosie Winterton)]

Order. I do have to pull people up if they go over. I call Maggie Throup.

--- Later in debate ---

[Bim Afolami]

Don’t miss him; he’s still here.

Make no mistake, Madam Deputy Speaker: this is an autumn statement for growth—one that supports entrepreneurs, cuts business tax, rewards work and brings prosperity to every corner of our wonderful country, and one that the OBR says will permanently increase the size of our economy. [Interruption.] That is what the OBR says. As my right hon. Friend the Chancellor said this afternoon, the Government understand that a successful economy depends less on the decisions and diktats of Ministers than on the “energy and enterprise” of its people, and that is the thrust of this autumn statement. It is about a Government taking action that reduces the burdens on businesses, while also empowering people and getting Great Britain growing and moving again.

But the context really matters. We are only able to pursue these policies now because of what the Government, under our Prime Minister, have achieved up to this point. We have brought inflation down from 11.1% to 4.6%, meeting the Prime Minister’s pledge, and we are on track to meet the 2% target by the middle of 2025. The OBR has confirmed that the measures announced today will make inflation next year lower than it would otherwise have been. We have achieved this while growing our economy, which is already bigger than it was pre-pandemic, contrary to what was often said on the Opposition Benches in debates in recent weeks and months. Our economy has grown faster than many of our competitors since 2010, which is when this Government first came into office.

[Ian Blackford]

I welcome the Minister to his position. Will he not acknowledge that, under the current plans, it will take until 2028 for wages to get back to their 1998 levels in real terms—a 20-year absence? That is the reality.

[Bim Afolami]

The measures here are designed to grow the economy, to make us more prosperous, to make businesses invest more and to cut taxes for working people, so I am confident that that prediction will not be borne out in the way that the right hon. Gentleman suggests. This autumn statement provides the foundation for the next decade of growth—not just for next year or the year after that. Next year, just as a start, the economy will be 2% higher—that is worth around £40 billion—than was forecast only in March this year. That is a result of the actions we have taken today.

I have been hearing about what the shadow Chancellor said to the parliamentary Labour party earlier this week. I am told that this is what she said, but I am happy to be intervened on if it is incorrect. She said that the next election would be a fight on the economy, a fight on fiscal responsibility, a fight on making working people better off and a fight on who would be the party to show that it backed British business. This autumn statement firmly shows that this Government and this party are the only choice for the British people and the British economy on these measures—[Interruption.] I see chuntering among Opposition Front Benchers. If they and the shadow Chancellor wish to fight an election on those matters, I say bring it on.

Let us talk about fiscal responsibility—[Interruption.] The Opposition do not want to hear about that. This Government have brought inflation down by half. Debt is falling by the end of this forecast period. We have the second lowest debt in the G7. We are only able to have this sort of growth Budget because of the prudence and careful measures that we have so far undertaken. Indeed, if I may use language that the Opposition might understand, this is prudence with a purpose. Let us contrast that with the record of the Labour party and Opposition Members. They are still saying that, on top of everything we have heard today, they are going to borrow an extra £28 billion. That will lead to higher debt, because they are borrowing, and higher inflation, which will lead to high interest rates for longer.

Energy Trilemma

Ian Blackford Excerpts

Thursday 23rd March 2023 Commons Chamber

[Ian Blackford (Ross, Skye and Lochaber) (SNP)]

It is a considerable privilege to follow the right hon. Member for South Northamptonshire (Dame Andrea Leadsom), and I thank her for securing this vital debate for all of us.

This has been an important week because we have had the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, which bluntly gives what is essentially a final warning to humanity. The report lays bare what is already happening because of the damage that we are collectively doing to our planet as a direct result of the energy choices we have made for the last century. Extreme weather caused by climate breakdown has led to increased deaths from intensifying heatwaves in all regions, millions of lives and homes destroyed in droughts and floods, millions of people facing hunger and “increasingly irreversible losses” in vital ecosystems. That is the damage that has already been done, and if we continue down this path, the final consequences will not simply be about deepening that damage. It is much more fundamental; it is about whether we can continue to live and survive on this planet. That is the harsh reality of where we are, and that is why this debate is so vital.

In the years to come, energy is everything. It is quite literally the be-all and end-all, because the types of energy we use will determine whether we meet the challenge of climate change, and it will determine whether humanity can live on this planet for the foreseeable future. Unless we move immediately to a completely new system of energy production, we will have neither security nor prosperity. We often talk in this House about the scale of the challenges we have faced since the financial crisis in 2008: how to deliver sustainable economic growth, drive investment in our economy, drive prosperity and drive up living standards. The enormous opportunities that we have in green energy would enable us to kick-start that, to answer the questions on the supply chain that the right hon. Member for South Northamptonshire raised and to ensure we have the skills, so that we can lead the way in not only providing energy for ourselves but exporting green energy, just as we did with the oil and gas revolution in the 1970s. We have to rise to that challenge, and we have to rise to it here and now.

The terrible truth is that the UK is being left behind when it comes to green energy and green growth. The US and the EU are powering ahead, and we need to make sure that we are not playing catch-up in the United Kingdom. The Inflation Reduction Act passed in August 2022 makes a remarkable $369 billion available to climate and clean energy programmes in the US—just think of the scale of the opportunity that comes from that ambition. Where is our ambition to match that? President Biden’s programme is a real levelling-up agenda, making green energy the economic catalyst to restore and renew the industrial heartlands of the US. Likewise, the European Union is powering ahead. It is debating the passing of the green deal industrial plan, with which it wants to grow clean energy production, revitalise manufacturing and support well-paid jobs.

If I may, I will just look narrowly at Scotland for a minute or two, because I know the figures there better than the figures elsewhere. Last year, the SNP Westminster group commissioned what has been called the Skilling report—“The Economic Opportunity for Scotland from Renewable Energy and Green Technology”—which I know some colleagues in the House have read. There is no fantasy in that report, because we are just reflecting on what we already know.

When the report was published, Scotland was producing 12 GW of green energy. It is now producing about 13 GW, but the report highlights the potential to increase that figure to 80 GW by 2050: a fivefold increase over the course of that period, generating as much as four times the green energy that Scotland needs. That represents the opportunity to keep the lights on—a phrase that was referred to earlier—right across the United Kingdom, and ultimately to produce hydrogen on a scalable basis and export to other parts of the European Union as well. We need to take advantage of the natural opportunity that we have in green energy, making sure that we are at the cutting edge of that. According to Skilling, the transition from fossil fuels will ultimately deliver more jobs than we currently have in oil and gas—over 300,000 jobs by 2050.

The right hon. Member for South Northamptonshire talked about the planning regime and the skilled jobs that we need to develop in order to make this happen, but there needs to be a sense of urgency in doing all of those things, or we will miss that opportunity. There is an enormous challenge, if I may say so, in making sure that we have the jobs in turbine manufacturing and providing cabling. We will achieve that only if we have the visibility of the orders coming in that will encourage people to invest here from across the United Kingdom, and indeed, to come and invest from elsewhere.

[David Duguid (Banff and Buchan) (Con)]

Will the right hon. Gentleman give way?

[Ian Blackford]

I will happily give way.

[David Duguid]

I am genuinely grateful to the right hon. Gentleman for giving way, and I agree with pretty much everything he has said so far, which is unusual. I am sure he is familiar with the report by Professor de Leeuw at Robert Gordon University in Aberdeen, which assessed that at least 90% of the skills required for the net zero future already exist in the oil and gas industry. We should make the most of those skills while we can.

[Ian Blackford]

Actually, I agree with those comments from the professor and from the hon. Gentleman. When I have been in Aberdeen and been out looking at some of the offshore technology there, it has struck me that there is that transferability—if I may call it that—of skills from the oil and gas sector. Of course, we need to make that happen.

But what I would say is that, if Skilling is right—and I believe he is—the scale of the opportunity goes way beyond the jobs that we currently have in oil and gas. We need to make sure that we have the research and development and the innovation right across the supply chain, and that we are utilising not just our higher education sector, but the further education sector to deliver people with the appropriate skills to do this. That is an enormous opportunity. Out of that, there is an enormous opportunity to make sure that we have an industrial strategy that is fit for purpose as well. I would be delighted if we had these kinds of debates more often in this House—if we were actually having detailed discussions about how we do all this. What do we have to do to make the planning system work in a way that is respectful to local communities, but recognises the need and desire to move ahead?

[Mr Carmichael]

On the subject of planning and the delays that are associated with it, I have no doubt that the right hon. Gentleman is aware that, in Canada, the time from consent to installation for a tidal device is around three years, whereas in this country, it is seven or eight. It comes down to something as simple as the fact that we do all the different impact assessments and the rest of it sequentially, when with a bit of imagination and creativity, they could all be done side by side.

[Ian Blackford]

I agree. The right hon. Member has made an important point. Often, the question is: how do we make sure we are protecting the rights of stakeholders and the rights of communities, while being able to do things at pace? What we have been talking about highlights the potential loss of technological leadership, because if we cannot do these things, we will not get that investment. In that context, let me go to the side a little, because I want to talk about one of the subsets of the green industry that has enormous potential for us.

We heard a comment earlier about nuclear and the opportunity to provide baseload. I have mentioned this in the House on a number of occasions, and I do not apologise for doing so again: there is enormous opportunity in tidal, and that has been demonstrated with the success we have seen with a number of projects. I encourage everyone in the House to examine a peer-reviewed Royal Society report published just ahead of COP26. It highlighted the opportunity of developing 11.5 GW of energy from tidal. If we look at the projects already developed in the United Kingdom, we tend to find that as much as 80% of that supply chain has been generated domestically. A number of the companies doing that are supplying equipment to such countries as France and Canada, as has been mentioned. There is a real danger that unless we recognise the scale of the opportunity, we will lose that leadership.

I am delighted that in the last contracts for difference round, the UK Government put in place a ringfenced pot of £20 million for tidal. That got us off to a degree of a start in fulfilling that ambition laid out in the Royal Society report. It was not as much as I would have liked. For us to fulfil that potential, we need to provide as much as £50 million annually, but I regret that over the past few days we have seen that that ringfenced pot will be cut to £10 million. I say to the House that we run the risk of losing this industry, and I appeal to the Government to revisit this issue. We can provide that baseload from tidal, as an alternative to nuclear energy. If we are ambitious about getting to that kind of scale in tidal, ultimately we will be providing that baseload on a more affordable basis.

[David Duguid]

I do not want to interrupt the right hon. Gentleman’s flow, and we can all agree that we wish there was more money available for different things, but he might not be aware that the £20 million that was initially ringfenced was for a two-year period. It has since been changed to a one-year or annual allocation. The £10 million for one year is essentially equivalent to £20 million for two years.

--- Later in debate ---

[Ian Blackford]

When the announcement was made, it was on the basis that it would be £20 million pot. [Interruption.] I have spoken to many of the operators over the course of the last while, and they do not share the hon. Gentleman’s view. But let us try to find consensus where we can and see the opportunity in all this, because that is key to this matter.

[Sir Paul Beresford]

The right hon. Gentleman said that tidal would be an alternative to nuclear, but it should be in addition to nuclear. The demand that is coming and the demand if we move into hydrogen will be massive—beyond anything we can imagine.

[Ian Blackford]

I have talked about the Skilling report and the ability to get to 80 GW. There is the opportunity with tidal to provide the baseload. I argue on that basis that we probably do not need the investment in nuclear to get to where we need to get. One thing I referenced was that I did not believe there is any fantasy in the numbers we have from Skilling. They are eminently achievable on the roadmap that we talk about.

Let us look at some of the choices and where the money has to come from, and put that in the context of the debate we are having over the trilemma and the choices that many people are having to make because of the cost of energy. We know that a number of producers have made eye-watering profits as a consequence of high energy prices over the past year. This Government have rightly introduced a windfall tax. If we had wanted, we could have hypothecated some of that to make sure we were speeding up investment in renewables. We could have provided the £50 million that I am asking for on an annual basis so that we could fulfil that potential in tidal.

One aspect of the events of the past 12 months has been the enormous increase in share buy-backs from energy producers. In essence, what are share buy-backs? They are in effect a return of capital to shareholders. We have taxed the profits of the generators to some extent, but we have not taxed the return of cash to shareholders—windfall gains. On a one-off basis, we could have taxed share buy-backs in the same way that we tax dividends, and provided the ability to generate the investment that we need in our energy transition. That would have been the sensible thing to do.

Let me come back to the European Union, because there is already an €800 billion NextGenerationEU post-coronavirus pandemic recovery scheme. EU member states must reserve 37% of their spending for that green transition. About €100 billion of the EU’s 2021 to 2027 cohesion fund, which is dedicated to regional development, goes to green spending. Horizon Europe, the EU science and innovation programme, allocates €40 billion to green deal research and innovation, and industry partnerships. The investment I am asking for and that I believe we need in tidal has to be seen in the context of the scale of that investment.

On a subject that many of us discuss, carbon capture and storage, the EU has commenced its third round before the UK has come close to completing its second. We are all aware of the promises that have been made about carbon capture and storage in the north-east of Scotland. There are Members in this Chamber who are as passionate as I am about making sure it happens, and let us remember why. If we are serious about getting to our net zero targets—whether 2045 in Scotland or 2050 in this place—then carbon capture and storage has to happen.

We have failed to back carbon capture and storage, and the harsh reality is that the renewable energy budget has been cut by a third and there has been the cut to the ringfenced budget for tidal stream. We need to make sure that we create competitive advantages out of the bounty that we know is there. Let us come back again to the green industrial strategy, because if we are able to develop our green energy sources to the extent that I believe we can, we need to make sure there is a competitive advantage for our industries and the industries of the future.

We also need to make sure that our communities benefit from the investment that is taking place. To take my own home island of Skye, an enormous increase in investment is coming down the line over the next few years in wind generation. We will be producing many times the amount of energy that the island of Skye can absorb by itself, yet there is an additional cost to access the network from producing in such remote and rural areas. There is a double whammy: because of the nature of the regional distribution market, we pay the highest prices to get the electricity back again. It simply is not good enough, and the communities making legitimate sacrifices in producing that energy have to be compensated effectively.

While we are talking about onshore, offshore and tidal, we should not forget the opportunities we have with pumped hydro storage. I delighted that, this week, SSE has announced a £100 million investment in the biggest pumped hydro storage scheme in the United Kingdom for 40 years. The Coire Glas scheme will power over 3 million homes, more than doubling the United Kingdom’s electricity storage capacity. Again, it is demonstration of what can be done in providing the baseload that is so necessary.

We need to pose the question why—in what is, for Scotland and arguably for the UK, an energy-rich country—people are facing the kind of costs that they have done over the last year. The average household bill in Shetland, if I may refer to that, in October 2022 was £5,578, more than double the UK average of £2,500, according to evidence submitted to the House of Commons Scottish Affairs Committee by Shetland Islands Council. The latest available figures show that a third—33%—of households in remote and rural areas in Scotland are in extreme fuel poverty. That statistic has not been updated since 2019 due to covid, and therefore does not reflect the current cost of living crisis. There will have been a massive increase in the percentage of our households that are not just in fuel poverty, but in extreme fuel poverty.

The only place where the UK Government seem to be increasing investment is in nuclear energy, which is far more expensive than the renewable alternatives. The Institute for Public Policy Research said:

“If the Government are serious about reaping the benefits of the transition and levelling up, it should learn from Joe Biden, scale up public investment, and bring forward a serious strategy to build an economy that is prosperous, fair and green.”

The CBI said:

“The UK is falling behind rapidly—to the Americans and the Europeans, who are outspending and outsmarting us.”

The world faces an energy trilemma, but the UK faces a simple binary choice: will it continue to be left behind, or will we collectively work in humanity’s self-interest to tackle climate change and embrace the opportunity for green growth?

[Mr Deputy Speaker (Sir Roger Gale)]

I call David Duguid.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Carmichael]

Absolutely. We make progress on these things incrementally, so if we can get to that situation that would be music to my heart and to the hearts of my constituents.

In Orkney, we already generate more energy from renewables than we can use in our own community. However, as the right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Ian Blackford) observed earlier, because of the way in which the market is regulated and structured, we actually pay more for it. That is something that generates not just energy, but an enormous amount of resentment in the community as well.

[Ian Blackford]

I congratulate the right hon. Gentleman on the progress he is making. There is a real issue about the disbursement of these funds because they are becoming particularly meaningful; it is a hot topic at the moment in Skye. We need to reflect on the powers that often lie with developers to make the determination as to how that pot is disbursed. We will have to be very careful across Government, here in Westminster and in the devolved Administrations, about setting the principles that have to be followed. If not, we will end up in a situation in which communities will, quite frankly, not get the benefit to extent that they should. We need to have effective governance in all of this to make sure that people are protected properly.

[Mr Carmichael]

The right hon. Gentleman is absolutely right. With a commitment to the principle from the top, everything underneath tends to fall into place.

There is another aspect of community benefits in which we may have missed a trick in Scotland recently. Although we missed out on a sovereign wealth fund, apart from in Orkney and Shetland, in the 1970s, there would have been an opportunity to generate more of a sovereign wealth fund from offshore renewables in the ScotWind round. We missed the boat this time, but I hope we can make up for it in future.

In many ways, Orkney and Shetland demonstrates the energy transition issues and the trilemma in microcosm: we have long, dark, cold winters, we have poor-quality housing stock and we are off the mains gas grid, so we do not have the same opportunities for access to cheaper heating as other parts of the country. The affordability element therefore very much matters to us. We generate more electricity from renewables than we can use for ourselves, but because of how the market was regulated until recently, when we finally got consent for a cable to the Scottish mainland, we have not been able to maximise the benefits. It is galling that although we are leading the way in decarbonised energy production, we end up paying more because we are part of a market that is regulated for the UK as a whole and that relies too heavily on the wholesale price of gas, as we are now seeing.

Let me just vent parenthetically for a second or two about the energy company SSE and its occasional choice simply to stop paying people who are entitled to feed-in tariff payments. I always seem to have at least one such case on the go among my constituency casework. Just last week, I was able to secure eventual, long-overdue repayment from SSE of £72,000 to one farmer in my constituency. That was money that SSE owed him and there was absolutely no reason for it not to pay, but for arbitrary and unaccountable reasons it seems occasionally just to decide to stop paying people. To my mind, that is an abuse of the privilege that it has been given by successive Governments.

Orkney is home to the European Marine Energy Centre, which is just about to celebrate its 20th anniversary. It has been at the forefront of the development of tidal stream energy generation; no doubt it could now play a similar role in the development of floating offshore wind.

Like other hon. Members, I was delighted to see the ringfenced pot in the round 4 allocation, but I share the concerns of the right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber. That is not just me speaking; the UK Marine Energy Council, RenewableUK and Scottish Renewables have all reacted badly, so I hope that the Department is already thinking about how to maximise the opportunities by getting some of the money back.

With the synergy between oil and gas, we have been at the forefront of the country’s energy needs for 40 years now, and the development of offshore renewables is the obvious next step. When I speak to apprentices, as I did during National Apprenticeship Week last month, they tell me that although they are starting apprenticeships in the oil and gas industry, they fully expect to have transitioned to something different by the end of their working lives.

For the past 40 years, my constituency has been home to the two largest oil terminals in western Europe: Flotta in Orkney and Sullom Voe in Shetland, which provide a visual demonstration of the just transition. EnQuest, the terminal operator at Sullom Voe, is now working on projects involving hydrogen, carbon capture, use and storage, and offshore electrification of production. It is a visual illustration of transition, but again it shows just how ill served we are by binary choices. All the time, we seem to be told, “You can have renewables or you can have hydrocarbons, but you can’t have both.” That is dangerous nonsense. We have allowed production of oil and gas on the UK continental shelf to decline in recent years, and it has been to our detriment. It was never put in these terms at the time, but I cannot think why anyone ever thought it would be a good idea to rely on Vladimir Putin for the purchase of our gas and Mohammed bin Salman for the production of our oil when we have a rich resource on our own doorstep. As we heard from the hon. Member for Banff and Buchan (David Duguid), the production of oil and gas in the North sea or to the west of Shetland is much less carbon-intensive than importing it from other parts of the world.

The point, surely, is this: it is not an either/or. There is no route to decarbonisation and achieving net zero other than one that goes through oil and gas production. I do not want to see the future generations of my constituents working in oil and gas. I do want to see them work in renewables, but I think that that will be much more likely if we take a long, hard, clear-eyed look at what happens in the future with oil and gas production on our own continental shelf.

There are many other things that we should be doing, such as managing supply and demand and increasing the amount of storage and smart grid—something that offers great opportunities for those who can turn on their washing machines at the other end of the country using their smartphones, although I suspect that it would be a bit more challenging for the members of the community who would benefit most from opportunities of that kind.

The right hon. Member for South Northamptonshire has done us a great service in initiating this timely debate. I hope that its strategic aspects have been heard and understood on the Treasury Bench, and will be acted on.

National Insurance Contributions Increase

Ian Blackford Excerpts

Tuesday 8th March 2022 Commons Chamber

[Ian Blackford (Ross, Skye and Lochaber) (SNP)]

On a point of order, Mr Speaker. President Zelensky, we salute you. We stand with the people of Ukraine on the basis of the act of aggression—of the act of war—of Putin. We must do all that we can to send support to Ukraine and to send the weapons that they need to defend themselves, and to make sure that we sanction the regime in Moscow, that we deliver the clearest message to President Putin that this will end in failure for him, and that he will face justice at the International Criminal Court. We must stand in this House, throughout these islands, throughout the western world, in defence of democracy, in defence of sovereignty. Peace, justice and the sovereignty of Ukraine must prevail. Let us make sure that we stand with our friends and that we stand with those who have been bombed. We must make sure that those who need our support, who need our sanctuary, will find a welcoming hand in these islands. Mr President, we thank you. We salute you. Slava Ukraini.

Downing Street Garden Event

Ian Blackford Excerpts

Tuesday 11th January 2022 Commons Chamber

[Michael Ellis]

We each of us, in this House and no doubt everywhere else, live our lives in the best way that we can. Those of us in positions of responsibility acknowledge that responsibility. That is why there is an investigation in progress, which will get to the bottom of all these matters. That is in progress.

[Ian Blackford (Ross, Skye and Lochaber) (SNP)]

I congratulate the right hon. Member for Ashton-under-Lyne (Angela Rayner) on obtaining this urgent question, but let us look around: where is the Prime Minister? The Prime Minister should be here to answer these serious questions. Where are the Government Front Benchers? Indeed, where are the Government Back Benchers?

This is the most serious of matters: this is a Prime Minister who has been accused of breaking a law that he himself set. It could not be more serious. I have sympathy with the Minister, the fall guy who has to answer the debate today. The harsh reality is that people around these islands watched loved ones dying and missed funerals, and the PM and his staff partied behind the walls of his private garden.

On that very day, on 20 May, there was a tweet from the Metropolitan police reminding people of their responsibilities, “You may meet only one person outside”. The Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport, in the Cabinet, gave a press conference at No. 10 at 5 pm to reiterate that message. There was one rule for the rest of us and another rule for those in No. 10. The Minister seeks to hide behind the investigation, but let me ask him: was Sue Gray one of those invited to that party on 20 May, and did she attend?

This is a Prime Minister who has lost his moral authority. He does not deserve the respect and trust of the people of these islands. If he will not do the decent thing and recognise that he ought to resign, I say to the Minister and to the Conservative Back Benchers that they will have to do what the Prime Minister has failed to do—force him from office, and do it now.

[Michael Ellis]

I do not accept the characterisation that the right hon. Gentleman makes. In this country, it is clear that the same rules apply to everyone. That is why an investigation is in progress. I hope that he will not adopt the approach of questioning the integrity of any civil servant investigating this matter. Sue Gray is someone who has conducted previous investigations with thoroughness and vigour. We can rest assured that the result of her inquiry will be in the public domain in due course. She is a person of integrity and upstanding. I hope that he will not adopt that approach.

Conduct of the Right Hon. Member for Uxbridge and South Ruislip

Ian Blackford Excerpts

Tuesday 30th November 2021 Commons Chamber

[Ian Blackford (Ross, Skye and Lochaber) (SNP)]

I beg to move,

That this House censures the Prime Minister, the Right Honourable Member for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, for frequently violating the sixth Principle of Public Life, for seeking to undermine the recommendations of the Standards Committee on Owen Paterson, for regularly ignoring independent advice on matters such as international treaties and breaches of the Ministerial Code by his ministers, for putting forward proposals to diminish the powers of the Electoral Commission, for ignoring independent advice concerning the granting of peerages to Conservative party donors and nominations to public bodies such as Ofcom; and further calls for his ministerial salary to be reduced by £41,567 per year.

Thank you, Madam Deputy Speaker, for your guidance to the House on conduct in this debate. I am sure you will want to join me in wishing everyone a happy St Andrew’s Day.

[Madam Deputy Speaker]

For the avoidance of doubt, happy St Andrew’s Day.

[Ian Blackford]

Happy St Andrew’s Day to you, Madam Deputy Speaker, and to all hon. and right hon. Members.

The Scottish National party tabled this motion of censure against the Prime Minister because we believe in a very basic principle, and we believe the public do, too: those in power deserve to face consequences for their disastrous actions, and they need to be held to account.

The charge sheet against the Prime Minister is, indeed, damning. In the past few weeks alone, he ripped up anti-lobbying rules when one of his own was found guilty, he is attempting to restrict the right to judicial review and he is seeking to undermine the independence of the Electoral Commission. But it did not start there, and it definitely does not end there.

Since coming into office a little over two years ago, the Prime Minister has been up to his neck in scandals involving cash for honours, cash for contracts, texts for tax breaks and even cash for curtains. As the motion states, he is constantly breaking the sixth principle of public life, the duty to be truthful.

Month after month, scandal after scandal, the charge sheet gets longer and longer, but not a single person is held to account. If the public are to have confidence in this place, that needs to change, and it needs to change today. Because unless the Prime Minister faces consequences—unless he is censured—he will not just think he has gotten away with the mess he has made over the last few months; he will think he will be able to do it over and over again. Let us be very clear: if the Prime Minister is not properly censured today, it will also be final proof that the Tories really do believe that its one rule for them and one rule for everybody else.

I remind Conservative Members that we have all been witness to events over the past number of weeks. They might want to forget what has happened, but the public definitely have not. The Tories marched through the Lobby—

[Mr Robert Goodwill (Scarborough and Whitby) (Con)]

rose—

[Ian Blackford]

I will give way in due course. The Tories marched through the Lobby to undermine our parliamentary standards process, to tear up the rule books, all in order to protect a friend of the Prime Minister who was found to have broken the rules. This whole sorry episode showed this Parliament at its very worst—and, trust me, that is saying something. The Government Chief Whip and the Leader of the House are easy scapegoats, but we all know that this was orchestrated by a Prime Minister who thinks he is untouchable, who thinks he can do as he pleases. This is a Prime Minister who thinks he can change the rules at will and who believes that if the rules become inconvenient, they can simply be changed. So the question stands today: how much does it really take for Tory MPs to say enough is enough?

How far standards have fallen is shown by the fact that the charges I have made against the Prime Minister are not even in dispute—they are all matters of public record. The Prime Minister has even admitted that in managing these scandals he personally

“crashed the car into the ditch”.

It tells us all we need to know, though, that he did not even have the decency to admit that in the House of Commons. He only felt the need to admit his mistakes and apologise to his Back Benchers in the Tory 1922 committee, and it was only because they were muttering about mutiny. I am not sure that apology counts if he only did it to try to save his own skin.

But no matter how much the Prime Minister tries to publicly wash his hands of responsibility for his actions, the public have already cast their verdict. The Tories may be sliding in the polls, but it is as nothing compared to the hammering the Prime Minister is taking in the court of public opinion. In the last week, his approval ratings have hit an all-time low, and there is one only simple reason behind it: the public know that that the Prime Minister is at the rotten core of all these scandals.

A natural comparison has been drawn with the Major Government in the early 1990s, but even that comparison fails to properly get to the scale of corruption that has occurred, much of it in plain sight. The difference between this Prime Minister and John Major was that Major took action to address the sleaze and corruption. This Prime Minister is at the centre of the sleaze and corruption—he is orchestrating much of it. I am afraid corruption is the only proper word—the only honest word—for what has been going on. As I said at the weekend, the Leader of the Opposition—I do wonder where Opposition Members are—is now very fond of repeating the line that when it comes to the Prime Minister

“the joke isn’t funny anymore”.

But in truth it was never funny, and we are all now living with the consequences of having a man like this in Downing Street.

It is also important to reflect on just how damaging recent weeks and months have been to the public’s faith in politics. Because each and every one of these scandals erodes standards, erodes trust and ultimately erodes democracy itself.

In the middle of the Owen Paterson scandal, the Prime Minister said:

“I genuinely believe that the UK is not remotely a corrupt country and I genuinely think that our institutions are not corrupt.”

The problem for the Prime Minister is that the public disagree with him: a recent Savanta ComRes poll found that 54% of those asked thought that the UK Government were corrupt. If the Prime Minister wants to know why, he has only to look in the mirror.

In the eyes of the public this is a UK Government who have normalised sleaze and are now trying to normalise corruption. This is the Tory Government’s attempt at a new normal in which no one is held responsible, no one is held to account and no one ever—not ever—resigns. That is exactly why consequences are so important and why this censure motion matters: it can only ever become a new normal if we all put up with it. [Interruption.] This is a debate that matters to people in the United Kingdom. We can hear the behaviour and the catcalling of Government Members and it sums up the attempt to shut down democracy and our right to raise these important matters in this House.

A new normal becomes possible only if we do not hold the Government to account and do not make them answer for their actions. I genuinely ask Government Members, if they have any interest in maintaining some dignity and decency in public life, finally to hold the Prime Minister to account and censure him for his abuse of power.

Let me take one example of that abuse of power: the cash-for-honours scandal. Fifteen of the Tory party’s main treasurers who happened to hand over £3 million to the party were somehow given life peerages in the House of Lords, as if by magic. Twenty-two of the Tory party’s top financial backers all happen to have been given peerages since 2010. In total, this group has stuffed Tory party coffers with £54 million— [Interruption.] “Hear, hear!” That sums it up. The Conservatives see it as a virtue that if someone gives multimillion pounds to the Conservative party, they end up in the House of Lords. My goodness! What price democracy?

Let us take Lord Cruddas, a leading donor to the Vote Leave campaign who, let us not forget, bankrolled the Prime Minister’s Conservative leadership bid. He personally gave up to £4 million in donations to the Tory party and affiliates. His reward? An ermine robe and a seat in the House of Lords. What is worse is that the Prime Minister personally overruled the House of Lords Appointments Commission that advised against his appointment. That was the very first time that the watchdog’s recommendation has ever been ignored. Three days after Lord Cruddas was introduced to the House of Lords, what happened? He handed £500,000 to Conservative central office. I will gladly give way to anyone on the Tory Benches who wants to stand up and justify that level of sleaze.

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Dame Eleanor Laing)]

Order. I hesitate to interrupt the right hon. Gentleman, but I hope he will be very careful about precisely what he says about any Member of the House of Lords because, of course, any Member of the House of Lords is also a parliamentarian. It is of course in order for the right hon. Gentleman to examine the conduct of the Member who is the subject of the motion, but that does not extend to other Members of Parliament, including those in the Lords.

[Ian Blackford]

What I am reflecting on is the behaviour of the Prime Minister that puts Members in the House of Lords, when the House of Lords Appointments Commission has ruled against their appointment. I have given the opportunity to anyone on the Tory Benches who wishes to rise to defend the actions of putting Tory donors in the Lords. It is £3 million for a peerage in the House of Lords. What a price to be able to undermine our democracy!

[Tommy Sheppard (Edinburgh East) (SNP)]

Will my right hon. Friend give way?

[Ian Blackford]

I will happily give way.

[Hon. Members]

Oh!

[Tommy Sheppard]

I thank my right hon. Friend for giving way. As no Government Member wishes to intervene on him, I wonder whether he might agree with me on this: is it not somewhat ironic that SNP Members demonstrate more probity and more respect for the rule of democracy than does the current Prime Minister, and is this not yet another compelling reason why Scotland should be an independent country, so that we can have a system of governance that is fair, democratic and transparent?

[Ian Blackford]

I thank my hon. Friend for that intervention. Of course, he is absolutely correct. We are speaking about the House of Lords. The House of Lords is the second largest parliamentary Chamber in the world. The only Chamber that is bigger is the Communist Congress. My goodness, what an advert for democracy! The fact is that these unelected Lords have a say over our democracy. The juxtaposition—the point that is made by my hon. Friend—is an important one. Today, we are discussing the behaviour of the Prime Minister and why he should be sanctioned. Yet in Scotland, just seven months ago, the people of our country were given the right to have a say in their Government. Crucially, they were given a right to have a say on the future of our country as an independent country, because the SNP made it very clear in that election that it was about a mandate for an independence referendum. Indeed, the Conservatives made it clear that a vote for the Conservatives was a vote to stop Scottish independence, and what happened?

We are talking about democracy and respecting democracy, so let us tell the Conservatives a few harsh truths. In the four elections that we have fought in the Scottish Parliament that we have won, we have increased our vote at every election. We received just short of 48% of the popular vote at that last election. That is a higher share of the vote than any party has had in any election in the United Kingdom for the past 50 years. On the topic of respecting democracy, of respecting the people’s sovereignty, then Boris Johnson must recognise that the Scottish Parliament, where there is a majority for Scottish independence, has the right to call that referendum.

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Dame Eleanor Laing)]

Order. Will the right hon. Gentleman please refer to the Prime Minister as the Prime Minister and not by his name? If he could just re-say that last sentence, I would be so pleased.

[Ian Blackford]

The point is that the Prime Minister must respect democracy. He denies democracy when he stuffs the Lords with his Tory donor friends, but he must respect democracy when people in Scotland have voted for a Parliament that has a right to call a referendum to take us out of this toxic Union and find a way back for us as an independent country in the European Union.

[Mr Goodwill]

rose—

[Ian Blackford]

I will give way.

[Hon. Members]

Hooray!

[Mr Goodwill]

I thank the right hon. Gentleman for giving way. He understands, I think, that a debate tends to be a two-way thing and not just a diatribe delivered to the House.

May I politely suggest that, if he wishes to restore confidence in this House, he could have chosen a subject for debate today that was of relevance to the people of Scotland—global warming, education, health—and not this rather lame subject, which, I suspect, is something of no consequence whatsoever to most people working very hard in Scotland.

[Ian Blackford]

Really, really. We are talking about corruption and sleaze—about a Prime Minister who forces Conservative MPs to go through the Lobby to get one of their own off a charge against parliamentary standards, and who rewards those who give money to the Tory party. That is exactly a subject of importance to the people of Scotland.

[Dawn Butler (Brent Central) (Lab)]

Not only is it an important subject; how the Prime Minister behaves is fundamental to our democracy and to how Parliament works. [Interruption.] We have a Prime Minister who comes to the House and fails to tell the truth. That is fundamental to how our democracy works, so it is more than important—it is fundamental.

--- Later in debate ---

[Ian Blackford]

I agree. I will come to the subject of truth and honesty later in my speech. It is noticeable that when the hon. Lady, who speaks with some authority on these matters, is trying to speak, once again the Conservatives try to shout us down. What a look that is to the people watching this debate.

[Mark Jenkinson (Workington) (Con)]

The right hon. Gentleman is being incredibly kind in giving way, particularly on this subject. I just wondered if he might take the opportunity to update us on the missing donations and the fraud investigation into the First Minister’s husband—your party’s chief executive.

[Ian Blackford]

rose—[Interruption.]

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Dame Eleanor Laing)]

Order. Do not shout at the right hon. Gentleman. We all have to hear his answer. While I am on my feet, I would be grateful if the hon. Member for Workington (Mark Jenkinson) would in future use the word “he” and not “you” when referring to the right hon. Gentleman.

[Ian Blackford]

Let me respectfully say to Government Members that I will give a guarantee, a promise and a commitment right here and now that all moneys raised by the Scottish National party for the purposes of fighting an independence campaign—every penny—will be spent on independence campaigning, because that is what we are about. There is a big difference in those who fund the SNP and the independence campaign, because—I will make another promise—not one single member of the SNP who gives to us willingly will end up in the House of Lords; they will be funding the SNP and the independence movement to ensure that we deliver on our promise to take Scotland out of this Union.

There is another important point about how deeply damaging all these scandals are. Every day that the Prime Minster spends concentrating on how he will somehow avoid scrutiny is a day not doing the basics of what his job demands. It is also becoming clearer just how damaging and dangerous it is that chaotic governance now defines Downing Street. That would be bad enough in normal times, but it is totally unforgivable in the middle of a pandemic.

In the real world, away from the shambles in No. 10, people are suffering not only from the pandemic, but from a Tory cost-of-living crisis. Inflation is running at 5%. Rising day-to-day costs and rising household bills are the main focus for families. While all the political stories on sleaze have been going on and taking up time at Downing Street, the political decision to cut universal credit has been hitting homes hardest. The shameful cut to universal credit was not just the wrong policy; it came at the worst possible time for families this winter. We are left with a UK Government who are not only up to their necks in sleaze, but hitting families at the same time. In Scotland, I am proud that we have a First Minister who understands the pressures that family finances are under, and a Government who listen and respond. I am proud that at the very same time that the Westminster Government are cutting universal credit by £20 a week, the SNP Scottish Government are raising the Scottish child payment by £20 a week.

One of the public’s real angers about these scandals is the deep dishonesty that has been so openly on display. The truth and the Prime Minister have always been strangers. I say that in sadness and not in any anger. Let me just take a few examples. On 4 March 2020, the Prime Minister said:

“We have restored the nurses’ bursary”.—[Official Report, 4 March 2020; Vol. 672, c. 829.]

That was completely and factually untrue. On 17 June 2020, the Prime Minister said that there were

“400,000…fewer families living in poverty now than there were in 2010.”—[Official Report, 17 June 2020; Vol. 677, c. 796.]

Both the Office for National Statistics and the Children’s Commissioner have confirmed that that is false. On 7 November 2019, the Prime Minister told Northern Ireland businesses, in person, that the protocol would mean

“no forms, no checks, no barriers of any kind”—

once again, completely untrue. It is right to be careful in terms of the language that we use in this House, but when it comes to language it is also right to be accurate and honest. On the basis of all the evidence, I can only conclude that the Prime Minister has repeatedly broken the sixth principle of public life. I can only conclude that the Prime Minister has demonstrated himself to be a liar.

I think there is a misguided sense among those on the Tory Benches that they have gotten past the scandals of the past few weeks. The Prime Minister thinks that, if he blunders on, people might not forgive, but they will forget. Not for the first time, the Tories are badly wrong and badly out of touch, because they just do not get that the depth of anger among the public is very real and is not going away. I know that people in Scotland are looking on at a broken Westminster system that has never felt more remote, more arrogant and more corrupt.

[Liz Saville Roberts (Dwyfor Meirionnydd) (PC)]

Does the right hon. Gentleman appreciate, and do Conservative Members appreciate, the damage that has been done when to be able to use the word “liar” in this place is now passed as fair comment and accepted, and the damage that that is doing to our democracy?

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Dame Eleanor Laing)]

Order. Let us just be clear about that. It is preferable that such words should not be used in this place but, as I said before the right hon. Gentleman rose to his feet, this is a very specific and particular motion and the right hon. Gentleman is examining the conduct of a Member of this House—indeed, the Prime Minister. Therefore, I cannot stop him from using the word that he has just used. I would prefer it if he put things in different terms, but I do not think that he has strayed past the rules. I think he is perfectly in order. However, it would be better if other Members did not make comments such as those just made by the right hon. Lady because what she said is not actually quite correct. Please, let us just keep it as moderate as possible.

[Ian Blackford]

I was dealing with the sixth principle of public life. I have laid out for the House three examples—I could have given many more—of where the Prime Minister has not told the truth. I regret, in the context of where we are, that I had to make that point, which is important, because if we undermine honesty and truth in this place, what are we left with? That is why we have brought this motion today and that is what I am asking hon. Members right across this House to reflect on, because there is overwhelming evidence that the Prime Minister has broken that principle of public life. I am asking each and every Member in this House, particularly on the Government Benches, to examine their conscience on the basis of the evidence and think very carefully before they go through the Lobby tonight. The public are angry at what has happened in this place. The public are angry about the Member I mentioned earlier who had been sanctioned by the Standards Commission and who the Prime Minister sought to get off. There will come a time when the public will judge this House and this House should reflect very carefully on that tonight.

[Sarah Owen (Luton North) (Lab)]

I wholeheartedly agree that this is an issue of conduct, but it is also a question of leadership. We have a Prime Minister in the middle of a pandemic who has failed to learn. At the beginning of this crisis, he boasted about shaking hands with covid patients; now he is mask-less in a hospital and too weak to tell Members of his own party to put on a mask. We desperately need not just an improvement in conduct, but an improvement in clear communication and leadership from this Prime Minister.

[Ian Blackford]

I agree with the hon. Member. [Interruption.] Perhaps we should just calm down; there will be opportunities for people to participate in the debate. This issue of leadership and conduct is important. This saddens me, but when we are facing a new variant, and we do not know what the scale of that challenge will be, the obvious thing for everyone to do is to seek to protect themselves, but more importantly to protect others and to lead by example and show leadership. I commend colleagues across the House who are sitting here wearing masks today, but my goodness, there are far too many who still do not get it and do not accept the responsibility they have for each other, and they are even laughing about it as I say that. It comes from the Prime Minister.

[Drew Hendry (Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey) (SNP)]

Will my right hon. Friend give way?

[Ian Blackford]

Let me just carry on for a second, because this is important. The way we conduct ourselves and interact with others is important. I commend the previous Prime Minister, the right hon. Member for Maidenhead (Mrs May), for the courtesies she always showed to Opposition parties, for how the protocols were followed and for the way we had a relationship with No. 10. It grieves me that I can tell the House that we as the third party and, I believe, the Leader of the Opposition have no relationship with No. 10. We are disrespected and disregarded by a Prime Minister who does not understand his obligations to public life, and that is yet another example.

[Drew Hendry]

Is it not telling about how complicit those on the Government Benches are that, when my right hon. Friend was reading out the list of untruths peddled by the Prime Minister, there was deathly silence? The only time they were animated was when my right hon. Friend called it for what it was.

[Ian Blackford]

I ask Government Members to reflect. Most people in this House are decent people. People come here to provide a public service, and I say to hon. and right hon. Members on the Government Benches that they are being let down, we are being let down and these islands are being let down by a Prime Minister who simply does not know how to behave. On that note, it will be interesting to see how the Scottish Tories vote tonight, and we will be watching. They are a group who never fail to see conspiracy at Holyrood, but somehow always fall deathly silent when it comes to sleaze and corruption overseen by their own Prime Minister.

In truth, this debate is not about the Scottish Tories—I will leave them to explain their own hypocrisy—but what the public expect when standards and rules are so clearly broken by their political representatives. They expect consequences, and they expect censure. Let us also be clear about this: if we fail to censure this Prime Minister today, we will have failed that public duty for accountability. Not only that, but it will reveal something very telling; it will show a Westminster system that is broken beyond repair and a Prime Minister who believes himself to be above the law of the land.

The only comfort I take is that fewer and fewer people in Scotland can possibly look at the broken, corrupt, self-serving Westminster system and conclude that it produces a secure basis for the future of Scotland. We all know that Scotland can do much better than this; we can do better than this broken Westminster system and we can do better than this Prime Minister. We will do so much better when our country chooses independence. I commend the motion in the name of myself and my hon. and right hon. colleagues.

--- Later in debate ---

[Michael Ellis]

I gave way last time and it really was not worth it.

There is also the £150-million community ownership fund to protect valued community assets.

In getting Brexit done, my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister and my right hon. Friend the Home Secretary have turned their attention to immigration. The Nationality and Borders Bill will break the cruel business model where criminal gangs exploit.

[Ian Blackford]

The Minister knows I have some affection for him, and he is doing a marvellous job at deflection, but it is noticeable that there is no attempt to offer a defence of the behaviour of the Prime Minister because, quite simply, there isn’t one.

[Michael Ellis]

The feeling is mutual but I am defending the conduct of the Prime Minister, and the right hon. Gentleman knows that he has no answer to this large litany of achievement.

--- Later in debate ---

[Bim Afolami]

No, I will make some progress.

Let us look at the contrast between what the Prime Minister is doing and what is happening in Holyrood. There is a new covid variant. We do not know how serious it will be, but it is right that we should be watchful. The economies of the United Kingdom and of Scotland are on the brink of recovery. In the face of that, the SNP’s priority is an independence referendum. Is that working hard for the people who elected it, bearing in mind the challenges that exist?

[Ian Blackford]

I commend the hon. Gentleman for at least trying to address the topic, but I gently say that the First Minister of Scotland went to the Chamber today to address the covid crisis. The First Minister and I, in my speech to the SNP conference, have made it crystal clear that our first priority is dealing with that. The difference is that the First Minister of Scotland went to the Chamber to answer Members. We have repeatedly asked the Prime Minister to make covid statements here, as he should. He does not do that; he does press conferences. He should be accountable to Members, but he has failed to be.

[Bim Afolami]

Where I would gently disagree with the right hon. Gentleman is that the position of the Deputy First Minister, Mr Swinney, has explicitly been that independence is the priority. The First Minister has said that, regardless of what happens with covid or the economy, she wants another independence referendum by the end of 2023.

Let us look at another aspect of working hard for the people who elect us and of translating those principles of accountability and leadership and the things in public life that we say we care about. Between 2007 and 2019, the rate of job creation in Scotland increased by about 5%. For the rest of the United Kingdom overall, the increase was about double that. Rather than focus on increasing the rate of job creation in Scotland, the SNP in Holyrood went into coalition with the Greens, whose website—I checked it myself—says explicitly that they want a universal basic income and that they think negative growth is manageable. That is not the action of a Scottish Government who are concerned about working hard for the people who elected them.

Let us turn to another issue, such as drug deaths, which many Members have already mentioned. Scottish drug deaths are the highest in Europe, but the response of the SNP is to decriminalise class A drug possession.

We would all agree that making long-term decisions in the public interest is another good way to implement and translate the principles of accountability, leadership, transparency and probity—all the things that we come to the House to do. What have the Government, led by the Prime Minister, done? On the vaccine roll-out, they opted out of the EU vaccine scheme, which was a brave decision at the time, because lots of people said that it would damn us to being at the back of the queue. In fact, we are at the front. On the green industrial revolution and the 10-point plan, we were lauded internationally at COP26 for our leadership on that issue. On the decision we made on social care, a subject that so many Governments have ducked, I suspect—dare I say it—that the Prime Minister was given advice saying, “Look, this is a really difficult issue. Is it right that we do it?” and the Prime Minister said, “Yes, we need to tackle social care, and we need to come up with a plan that is fairer and better for everybody in this country.” That is what dealing with the long-term interests of the people who elected us is about.

To finish by paraphrasing what the hon. Member for Midlothian (Owen Thompson) said in his speech, even Peppa Pig can see that this Government and this Prime Minister are taking the right actions, and the SNP is not.

Budget Resolutions

Ian Blackford Excerpts

Wednesday 27th October 2021 Commons Chamber

[Ian Blackford (Ross, Skye and Lochaber) (SNP)]

Thank you, Madam Deputy Speaker. I think that we are used to the Prime Minister perhaps being fast and loose with facts, making things up as he goes along, but I have to say that I think better of the Chancellor. I have to say gently to him that if he thinks he is going to cut air passenger duty for Inverness and the highlands and islands, he is wrong—because there is no air passenger duty in Inverness. One would have thought that if he were going to make announcements, he would check his facts first.

More fundamentally, COP26 kicks off this weekend. What on earth are we doing? When we are saying to the rest of the world that we are trying to engage other countries to step up to the plate with their climate obligations—the Prime Minister has spoken today about the importance of 1.5°—the Chancellor wants to cut air passenger duty on domestic flights. [Interruption.] I can see him nodding his head. He is increasing air passenger duty on long-haul flights, admittedly, but the fact is that carbon dioxide emissions per mile are much higher for domestic flights than for long-haul flights.

What on earth are we doing? How can we say that we are taking our climate obligations seriously? By the way, the Scottish Government, exactly because of our climate responsibilities, took the decision in 2019 to remove our planned reduction in air passenger duty. Chancellor, this is a disgrace. Quite frankly, it shows that this is not a Government who understand the climate challenge that we all face. The Chancellor should withdraw and remove that proposal.

The Budget that the Chancellor has just delivered is tantamount to grabbing 20 quid out of people’s pockets, handing them back a tenner and expecting them to be grateful. Today’s announcement does not even come close to compensating for the tax rises and cuts that he has imposed over the past month. Let us take our pensioners as an example: with the removal of the triple pensions lock, there will be a £6 billion saving for the Government from their raid on pension tax credit and on pensioners.

That is the harsh reality under this Tory Government. The raw reality of that fiscal trickery means that millions of families and workers will be worse off this winter. This is a Budget that brazenly cuts taxes for the banks, while it cuts universal credit for the poor. We welcome the changes to the taper relief, but they do not change the fundamental fact that everybody on universal credit has just lost £1,000.

The Chancellor who once promised to do “whatever it takes” is now a very distant memory. The true test of this Budget was whether it would act radically and tackle the cost-of-living crisis, the Brexit crisis and the climate crisis, and it has failed that test on all three fronts. Instead of doing “whatever it takes”, the Chancellor has done as little as possible. The Tories’ half-hearted rhetoric about fairness has predictably only produced half-measures when it comes to soaring household bills and the crippling cost of inflation.

Perhaps worst of all, before the Chancellor stood up today, millions in poverty knew that they were facing the choice between heating and eating this winter. The ultimate failure of this Budget is that when the Chancellor sat down, those millions of people were still left with that terrible choice. I think that once the full details of today’s announcement sink in, the Tories’ cheers for their Chancellor will quickly fall silent. We can already sense that discontent growing among Government Back Benchers in the red wall seats, because another hidden truth of this Budget is that it only promises capital spending tomorrow, but delivers austerity today.

The Chancellor is living in the naive hope that the public will somehow have forgotten what his Government have hit them with over the last few weeks. He came in today and bragged about his Government’s generosity, but for the last month his Government have hammered working people and ordinary families with regressive national insurance tax rises, the premature ending of furlough, and, worst of all, that disgraceful £1,000 cut in universal credit. I am sorry to break it to the Chancellor, but the public have far from forgotten. They know the political choices that this Government have made, and they know the choices that have made them poorer. They know that they have been badly hit in the pocket by this Government, and that today goes nowhere close to making up for it. They know, too, that the rise in the minimum wage is welcome, but I must say to the Chancellor that the Living Wage Foundation will update the real living wage on 15 November this year. That will reflect what is happening.

Perhaps the Chancellor and the Secretary of State for Scotland might listen, because this is important. This is about the poorest—this is about people in poverty—and I am asking the Chancellor to recognise the Living Wage Foundation’s announcement on 15 November of the real living costs for the poorest in society. While I welcome today’s announcement of the increase in the minimum wage to £9.50, I ask him to give a commitment that that figure will rise to the amount of the real living wage this year, because that, fundamentally, is what will keep people out of poverty. We know that a full-time worker on the minimum wage this year will still be hundreds of pounds worse off because of the cuts in universal credit.

The smoke and mirrors act about rising wages just doesn’t cut it. The Chancellor may want folk to think he is giving with his left hand, but in reality he is taking much more out of their pockets with his right hand. However, no one is fooled. The only people who are living in their own parallel universe are the neighbours in Nos. 10 and 11 Downing Street. In the real world, people are struggling with a Tory cost-of-living crisis that this Budget fails to fix.

Under the leadership of the Prime Minister and the Chancellor, the public are being hit with an energy crisis, a Brexit crisis, a labour crisis and an inflation crisis, and it all adds up to a Tory cost-of-living crisis that is punishing workers and punishing families. It is a deeply damaging pattern that has become all too familiar. What we are experiencing is a United Kingdom in constant crisis, and it is very little wonder that Scotland wants out. [Interruption.] They are predictable. I hear, from a sedentary position, the Secretary of State for Scotland—at least, that is what I think his job title is—

[Kirsten Oswald (East Renfrewshire) (SNP)]

Who does not have a mask on.

[Ian Blackford]

Who does not have a mask on, despite the fact that Members of this House are falling ill with covid.

I say to the Prime Minister and I say to the Secretary of State for Scotland that the simple fact of the matter is that all of us have to recognise democracy, and the Conservatives have to recognise that an election to the Scottish Parliament took place this year. There is a majority for independence in that Parliament, and that Parliament will bring forward a referendum Bill. It ill behoves those who lost the election in Scotland—and the Conservatives have lost every election there since 1955—to deny the right of the people of Scotland to their own sovereign will, their own sovereign decision, to have a referendum on our future, offering us the hope that is failing from this Tory Budget today. More and more people are coming to the view that independence now offers safety and stability—an escape from the constant crisis of Westminster control. They are coming to the view that we can simply no longer afford to pay the price of being part of this failing union.

The defining decision of this Budget is the failure to fully reverse the cuts in universal credit. Tapering the rate is only tinkering around the edges of the problem. The decision was fully wrong and it needs to be fully reversed, because not only was the cut to universal credit the wrong policy, but it came at the worst possible time. [Hon. Members: “ Callous!” ] It was a decision that was callous, and it was a decision made before the rapid rise in inflation was truly known. But instead of having the strength to admit that they were wrong, the Tories have decided to dig their heels in. Earlier this week, the Chancellor, in many of his pre-Budget announcements, said that this Budget was a chance for him and his Government to get back to

“a more normal way of doing things”.

It is therefore very telling that in the same Budget he has confirmed that disgraceful cut in universal credit. He is cutting the surcharge on banks from 8% to 3%. So “back to normal” for this Chancellor clearly means one thing. It means the mindless mantra of the Tory long-term economic plan. It means austerity for the many and tax cuts for the few.

There is a very simple way for the Tories to prove me wrong. They can do the right thing: reverse the cut in universal credit, and put £,1000 back into the pockets of those who desperately need it. And while they are at it, they can remove the benefit cap, the two-child limit, the rape clause, the sanctions regime and the five-week wait, and—finally—introduce statutory sick pay at the level of the real living wage.

As well as those permanent measures, specific and targeted measures are needed to help with energy prices for the winter ahead. That is particularly true for the 2 million pensioners in poverty who have been let down by the removal of the triple lock. We believe that the fairest way to help is to introduce an emergency energy payment to cover families who simply cannot afford the soaring cost of heating and electricity bills. That would be, at the very least, the best way to protect people this winter.

I suspect that inflation will not be the pressing issue of this Budget alone; I fear that it may well be the defining issue of many Budgets to come. The Bank of England’s new chief economist has warned that inflation could soon hit 5%. Mortgage holders are rightly fearful that that this inflationary spike will be met with a sharp rise in interest rates. The Chancellor seems to think that all this is merely transitory, but complacency on this issue is not an option. History shows how quickly an inflationary spiral can get out of control.

It is worth remembering that in 1980 the inflation rate hit 18%. None of us can afford to go back to that place.

However, the inflationary threat is just one element of what amounts to a perfect storm of economic vulnerability. The covid crisis can no longer camouflage the deep damage that Brexit has done, and the single biggest threat to our recovery remains being dragged out of the European Union, against the wishes of those who live in Scotland. The consequences of Brexit are here and they are hurting: our exports down 14% year on year, our fishermen blatantly betrayed, our farmers sold out in fire sale UK trade deals, labour shortages, food shortages, medical shortages. It cannot be said often enough that Scotland is paying the price for a policy that we never supported.

Brexit has already cost billions, but while the European Union is giving Ireland €1.05 billion to mitigate the damage of Brexit, Scotland has yet to receive a single penny of compensation from Westminster. So I would like to ask the Chancellor: where is same billion-pound package of support for struggling businesses that have been hit by Brexit? I know those on the Government Benches do not like to hear this, but what those businesses also need is a return to freedom of movement. They need the 1% hike to employer and employee national insurance halted, and our hospitality and tourism sector needs the 12.5% VAT rate to be made permanent. All those businesses badly need a break from Brexit.

As we know, this Budget comes a matter of days before COP26. Keeping the target of 1.5° alive depends on a Government commitment to embrace the green economy, but let us be honest: this Budget today does not help. The fact that this crucial conference is happening in Glasgow is a chance to show moral leadership, but it is also an opportunity to grasp the opportunities that the green economy can provide. Moving to a just transition from oil and gas is essential to capture the economic opportunities of the new energy technologies and to support people into new jobs. The depth of anger felt in the north-east of Scotland at this Government’s decision to renege on their promise to ensure that we have carbon capture and storage in Scotland obviously has not hit home on the Government Benches.

If this Chancellor was—[Interruption.] Chancellor, this is really important. This is about our ability to get to net zero, and it is about the fact that the Treasury has blocked carbon capture and storage in Scotland. I say this directly to the Chancellor: perhaps he will meet me in the coming days to ensure that the Scottish Acorn project is put back on track and that we increase the number of carbon capture and storage projects from two to three, for the simple reason that we need that to deliver on our net zero targets and to deliver 15,000 jobs in Scotland for that just transition.

I say to the Government directly: let us ensure that we give some hope to the north-east of Scotland, because £350 billion of tax revenues has been taken out of the North sea. We need a helping hand to deliver that just transition, and I need the Secretary of State for Scotland to stand up for us—to stand up for Scotland and ensure that we get that just transition.

If the Chancellor was serious about supporting Scotland, he would have stood up today and announced that the Scottish cluster would go ahead. The reality is that it was a purely political choice to deny Scotland carbon capture and storage. What on earth is the Secretary of State for Scotland doing? Sitting on his hands and failing once again to stand up for Scotland’s interests. [Interruption.] I hear “Hee haw” from the SNP Benches. Maybe he is the Secretary of State for hee haw.

It is not only on carbon capture where this Government are holding back our renewable opportunities. I am passionate about the potential of tidal stream energy, but the contracts for difference budget of this UK Government means there is currently no route to the domestic market for that industry. Despite the Prime Minister’s warm words in response to my questions last week, there is no ring-fenced £71 million budget for tidal stream energy—a small pot of money that would kick-start the opportunities in this industry and prevent it from being lost overseas.

Let us be real about this—[Interruption.] It is really important that the Chancellor listens to this debate. It is his debate. We are serious about the opportunities—[Interruption.] He can point to the clock all he likes, but we are talking about the future of the renewable energy industries in Scotland, and about paying attention to what the industries are saying.

We know about the breakthroughs in technology, and we know that the Royal Society has painted a picture of an industry that could represent 20% of our electricity needs throughout the United Kingdom, but it needs to be kick-started with financial support. However, when we were all talking about our responsibilities to net zero, it is the UK Government who are standing with their foot on the brake preventing this industry from getting off the ground and delivering for people— not just in Scotland, but right across the United Kingdom.

There is also no commitment to match the Scottish Government’s £500 million investment for a just transition in the north-east of Scotland. Now that the Chancellor has blown up the idea of a Boris bridge across the Irish sea, he should have plenty of spare money to invest. On that point, can I ask him whether the estimated £20 billion cost for that cancelled bridge will now be ring-fenced for future transport projects in Scotland and Northern Ireland? Or is that just one more promise that will be broken—just one more example of Westminster holding back Scotland’s green future?

This Budget could have been an opportunity to do things differently, to get a grip on the cost-of-living crisis and to kick-start a fair recovery. But this Budget does not signal recovery. It signals that this Chancellor is dragging us into another winter of discontent, but I can assure the House that Scotland has been discontent with Westminster control for more winters than one. Our country has not voted for a Tory economic plan since 1955. Westminster’s choices are not our choices. The last thing Scotland needs is another winter of discontent imposed by another Tory Government.

Ultimately, we know that democracy is the only cure and the only solution to that deep discontent. That is why, when the crisis of the pandemic has passed, Scotland’s people will have the right to choose their own future—an independent future. It is a manifesto promise that we made, and it is a democratic promise that we will keep. I look forward to the judgment of the people of Scotland. I look forward to a future that is fair, green and European. I look forward to an independent Scotland.

0.7% Official Development Assistance Target

Ian Blackford Excerpts

Tuesday 8th June 2021 Commons Chamber

[Ian Blackford (Ross, Skye and Lochaber) (SNP)]

I cannot help but reflect, given what the Minister has delivered, that in the phrase that is often used, he knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.

Let me begin by commending the efforts of all those who have made it possible to have this emergency debate, including those who requested the debate, led by the right hon. Member for Sutton Coldfield (Mr Mitchell), and you of course, Mr Speaker, for granting time today.

As we know, it has not been an easy task getting to this point—a point where this Government have finally been held accountable for their actions and made to answer for what is a callous cut to overseas aid. Let us be very clear: this Tory Government have been shamed into coming to the House today. Ever since announcing this disgraceful decision to slash aid for the world’s poorest, the Government have been on the run on this issue. For weeks now they have avoided questions and dodged accountability, but they have been dragged to the Dispatch Box today.

As usual with this Government, the person most responsible for the decision to cut aid is the person first to hide and the last to face accountability. On an issue of this importance and a policy this fundamental, it tells us everything we need to know about this Prime Minister that he does not even have the guts to come before this House to justify his Government’s decision to cut support to those most in need. He is a Prime Minister who casually signs off on these devastating decisions, but a leader who always fails to take any responsibility for the consequences of such decisions.

No damaging decision appears to be off limits for this Government. On overseas aid, living up to our legal responsibilities—our legal responsibilities, Minister—to those most in need should unite various strands of political opinion across this Parliament. Instead, the moral mission of 0.7% spending has been shamefully undermined by a morally bankrupt Government.

It is important to put the decision into a broader context, because cutting the aid budget is not only cruel and counterproductive in its own terms, but an isolated act from a UK Government increasingly alone on the world stage. The UK is virtually the only country that has cut its aid spending. Nearly every other wealthy country has recognised the greater necessity of helping those in need at this unprecedented time of a humanitarian crisis.

The Government’s timing could not be worse. International opinion on these cuts is crystal clear. It is rightly seen as a disgraceful abdication of the UK’s international responsibilities in a year—in a year, Minister —when we should be showing some international leadership at the G7 and COP26. Let us simply take a look at what some G7 countries are doing in comparison with the UK. This year, Canada’s aid budget will see an increase of 28%, France will contribute a 36% increase and, under the Biden Administration, the US will see a 39.4% increase. Yet this Tory Government think it is somehow morally justified to impose these cuts. It is morally and ethically flawed, it is intellectually flawed and it shames all of us that this is done in our name. But I say this to the Minister: it is not done in the name of the majority who have been sent to this House.

The harsh reality is that this decision will cost lives—it will cost lives, Minister. Brexit Britain is rapidly exposing the future it offers of being out of step and out of influence on the world stage, because one thing is for sure: if the Tory Government dig in their heels and slash the aid budget, they are adding insult to injury to those dwindling few who still desperately cling on to the notion of global Britain.

Digging into the details of these cuts reveals what is at stake if they are allowed to continue. The headline figures are stark enough in themselves, with aid spending amounting to £10 billion this year, compared with £14.5 billion in 2020, but it is the impact of where exactly the cuts will fall that tells the real story and exposes the real damage. Almost unbelievably, conflict zones face some of the worst cuts. Syria, Somalia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Libya, Nigeria and Lebanon: all are poised to lose more than half their funding. Is that where we stand? Is that where the Minister stands? Is that where his Government stand?

Children are the next target. The United Nations Children’s Fund faces a cut of 60%. This is harrowing; this is heartbreaking. I ask the Minister: where is the Government’s humanity at a time of need?

Some of the most established and impactful projects are equally at risk, with cuts of £12.5 million to the UN agency that fights AIDS and HIV. That is more than an 80% cut to a programme to fight AIDS, condemning people to an early death that could be avoidable.

Much has already been made of the fact that, by imposing these aid cuts, the Government are brazenly breaking their own manifesto commitment. In particular, I want to draw attention to the fact that they are breaking a very specific commitment that they made to voters about girls’ education right across the globe. It is worth putting that on the record of the House. In 2019, the Conservative party manifesto promised to

“stand up for the right of every girl in the world to have 12 years of quality education”,

and yet that promise has been broken.

Analysis by Save the Children shows that spending on education for girls will be reduced by at least 25%, compared with 2019-20 levels. That is horrific. Not only will these cuts impact now, but the damage will reverberate into the future for those young girls and young women, their hopes and fears crashed on the dogma of the desire to cut UK aid spending. Only this weekend, a letter from 1,700 charities and academics said that families are going hungry and girls are missing school as a direct result of these decisions. I can see that the Minister is nodding. I ask him please to reflect and change the Government’s policy and what they are doing.

Whether the promises are broad or specific, they are apparently all the same to the UK Government, who are telling people that they think their promises are only there to be broken. I acknowledge and give credit to the courage of the many Conservative Back Benchers who have stood against their Prime Minister, who is reneging on the very manifesto that he stood on. Their stance has given us at least a chance to face down the Government on this issue and hopefully force a U-turn.

Frome a Scottish perspective, I cannot hide my genuine disappointment that we cannot count the Scottish Tories among the Conservative Back Benchers with a backbone. For weeks, they have maintained a deafening and shameful silence, but even at this late stage, they have the chance to do the right thing. Whatever our differences, I think they know that cutting international aid during a pandemic does not represent the values of Scotland and our people. That is why the Scottish Government are doing what they can with the powers they have at Holyrood. We have increased international aid spending by 50%—that is what should be done in a pandemic, Minister. The Scottish Conservatives have a choice: either fall in behind their Prime Minister, no matter what he decides, or join us in saying that these cuts to the world’s poorest are not done in our name. If they fail to oppose these cuts, the Scottish Tories should be well warned: it would be not only an inhumane act against the most vulnerable, but an act of sheer hypocrisy.

Today’s debate on aid spending is all the more significant because of the place and the context in which we find ourselves. Morally, we have a responsibility to help protect the most vulnerable around the world. It is also self-evident that if the UK Government were serious about the eradication of covid-19, that must include a commitment to help eradicate covid-19 around the world, because until all of us are safe, none of us is truly safe. These aid cuts are severely undermining that commitment and limit our power in meeting the covid challenge.

There is a broader point, too. As we attempt to emerge from this pandemic, the values we live by and the choices we now make become even more important. Covid has affected every country and every person around the world. We have all faced the same threat; we have all been in it together. If we did not know that before, we should know it now. But the truth is that just because we have experienced the pandemic together does not mean that our challenges are in any way equal. We are privileged. We can live in the hope and expectation that the crisis of the pandemic will pass, but for too many millions in this world, the pandemic is only one more disaster to deal with, in countries that suffer under constant crisis and struggle. Now is not the time to turn our face away from those countries and those people in need. Now is the time to redouble our efforts and our commitment to them.

The World Bank predicts that the pandemic will push an estimated 88 million to 115 million people into extreme poverty, and in the world’s poorest countries, hunger and the causes of malaria are rising. Unless we act now, one crisis will be followed by another, and the cycle will go on—and on, and on. We simply cannot break the poverty cycle by breaking our commitment to overseas aid. This is a choice for the Government; it is the choice for every Member of this House. On these Benches, our choice is clear. It is time to live up to our commitments on aid spending. It is time to live up to our responsibilities to the world’s poorest. It is time to break the cycle.

[Mr Speaker]

If we can try and help each other now with brevity, that would be very helpful.

Covid-19: Future UK-EU Relationship

Ian Blackford Excerpts

Wednesday 15th July 2020 Commons Chamber

[Ian Blackford (Ross, Skye and Lochaber) (SNP)]

I beg to move,

That this House welcomes the European Union’s openness to extend the transition period for negotiations; calls on the Government to immediately accept this offer and notes the Scottish Government’s publication of 3rd June entitled, “COVID-19: The Case for Extending the Brexit Transition Period”, warning of the damage a no deal would cause to the economy in addition to the cost of the covid-19 health crisis.

The Prime Minister, like all of us here, could not have foreseen the covid-19 pandemic when his Government initiated the process of leaving the European Union. 2020 has become a year like no other, and this Government must adapt and do what is right by their citizens. Our priority must be dealing with this health emergency and the consequent economic challenge; it is definitively not business as normal. That is why my Government in Edinburgh, under the stewardship of Nicola Sturgeon, has prioritised dealing with the crisis above all else. We are demanding that the UK Government do the same—[Interruption.] Mr Speaker, it has started already. This is a serious subject, and what we get is laughing and guffawing from the hon. Member for West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (Andrew Bowie). He really should show some respect and grow up.

The SNP is calling on the Government immediately to extend the Brexit transition period while we navigate the unprecedented health and economic crisis we currently face. The European Union has expressed its ongoing openness to extending the transition period for negotiations, and the UK Government now need to accept that offer. The Government will claim that this opportunity ended at the end of June, but we are dealing with realpolitik here. We know that while we are still in the transition period this House can legislate for an extension and the European Union would recognise the mutual benefit. It simply requires political will and leadership.

The Scottish Government have set out their position in “COVID-19: The Case for Extending the Brexit Transition Period”, which sets out why it is vital, if we are to ensure the most rapid recovery possible from the covid-19 crisis, that the UK must immediately seek an extension to the Brexit transition period for two years. We are in unprecedented times: a health pandemic, an economic crisis, and the real threat of a second wave of covid-19 later this year. Now is the moment for the UK Government to recognise reality and to reconsider their position.

The United Kingdom is facing an unprecedented economic crisis. The Office for Budget Responsibility and the Bank of England have published various scenarios in which GDP falls by as much as 13% to 14% this year, which would be the largest decline in economic output in 300 years. By comparison, the most recent largest single-year fall in GDP was 4.2% on the back of the financial crisis in 2009. This overshadows anything that any of us we will ever face.

At least 1 million jobs have already gone, and many more will go when the Government end the furlough scheme, which is needed as a bridge to secure employment until recovery takes hold. Indeed, we know from the Office for Budget Responsibility that close to 2 million of those on the furlough scheme could face unemployment. Just dwell on that: the threat of unemployment in the UK could perhaps increase to as many as 4 million people. Just dwell on the human misery—the families struggling to make ends meet and pay their bills; a sharp rise in poverty, and the human cost of that for families and their children. That is why a stimulus package is required to build confidence and get folk back to work.

[Douglas Ross (Moray) (Con)]

The right hon. Gentleman is outlining the stark realities that we currently face across the whole United Kingdom, and indeed the world. Because of that, is he grateful that Scotland is part of the United Kingdom, and that the broad shoulders of this Union are supporting Scotland, with more than £10 billion going from the UK Government to Scotland just during the covid pandemic?

[Ian Blackford]

I must say that I am disappointed in the hon. Gentleman, as I would expect more of him than that. I say to Conservative Members that we must ensure that we have the tools at our disposal in the Scottish Parliament and the Scottish Government. I spoke about the importance of the furlough scheme, and we welcomed that. We will welcome Government measures that help to deal effectively with the challenge we face. There is a harsh reality, however, for our industries in Scotland, such as the tourism industry, which is important in my constituency and that of the hon. Gentleman, as well as many others.

Effectively, we are facing three winters, and there is a truncated summer season. Our tourist industry barely exists over the winter months, and the last thing we need is to find that the UK Government are kicking the legs away from our industry by ending the furlough scheme early. The challenge for every Conservative Member of Parliament from Scotland is to ensure that if the UK Government do not provide the necessary support for our businesses and our people, those powers have to reside in the Scottish Parliament. Will Scottish Tory MPs stand with us and ensure that the Scottish Parliament has the powers it needs to do its job and protect the people of Scotland? I think we know the answer.

The Chancellor said that the UK is suffering because of covid-19, in common with many other economies around the world. However, the UK economy is likely to suffer worse damage from this crisis than any other country in the developed world. According to the OECD, a slump in the UK’s national income of 11.5% during 2020 will outstrip falls in France, Italy, Spain, Germany and the US. With the continued risk of a second wave hitting the economy and our communities in winter, the idea of the UK leaving the European Union at the same time is economic madness.

The outlook is bleak—there is no other way to look at it—and things are about to get much worse, unless the Government end their refusal to extend the Brexit transition period. Refusing to do so is the ultimate act of self-harm. With businesses fighting for survival, a bad deal or no deal will burden businesses with additional costs and red tape. Yesterday, the Financial Times told us that UK Government officials had indicated that a potential additional 215 million customer declarations will be required, at a cost of up to £7 billion. Businesses are fighting for survival, and the UK Government want to send them a bill for £7 billion. I wonder if the Prime Minister will put that on the side of a bus. That is not taking back control; that is self-induced madness.

We can stop this now. We can recognise that this is a price that we cannot pay in the middle of a health and an economic crisis. All it requires is political will. All it requires is leadership.

[Craig Mackinlay (South Thanet) (Con)]

Is it not the case that the injudicious dropping of a crisp packet would be enough for the Scottish National party to be asking for the extension of the implementation period or the scrapping of the whole project altogether? Might I remind the SNP—I wonder whether the right hon. Gentleman has the figures—that more people voted for Brexit in Scotland than have ever voted for the SNP?

[Ian Blackford]

Really? Is that the best that Thanet can send to the House of Commons? Heaven help them. I have to say to the hon. Gentleman that we were told that if we stayed in the United Kingdom in 2014, Scotland would be respected and that we were to lead the UK. The question for him and for his Government is: why did they not respect the fact that Scotland voted to stay in the EU, with 62% of those living in Scotland voting to do so? At every opportunity in the past few years, the Conservatives, as they have been in every year since 1955, have been thoroughly rejected by the people of Scotland, and it is no wonder. We stood on a platform in the election in December about Scotland’s right to choose. The Tories said, “Say no to devolution. Say no to independence.” How did that go down? They lost more than half their seats and we increased our representation from 35 to 48. I think he has had his answer.

[Douglas Ross]

Will the right hon. Gentleman give way?

[Ian Blackford]

You’ll get your opportunity later.

[Douglas Ross]

On a point of order, Mr Speaker.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Speaker]

We do not both need to stand at the same time—it is easier if you sit down. As a person who is very good with red cards, you should be aware of what we need to do to keep good order. That is a point of clarification and I am sure you will want to save some of that for when you speak later.

[Ian Blackford]

Mr Speaker, to use football parlance, I think the hon. Gentleman is offside and the Tory party regularly gets a red card from the people of Scotland. The Tories have shown themselves hostile to devolution since time immemorial; a leopard does not change its spots.

Why are this Government intent on this hammer blow hitting the UK economy when we are already in dire straits? We need to create the circumstances for recovery, not make a bad situation even worse. Instead, this UK Government want to spend hundreds of millions of pounds on border infrastructure to prepare for Brexit. Any rational person—I know that not many of those exist on the Tory Benches—would point out the lunacy of such tomfoolery, but of course this is driven by the ideology of those who want to “take back control” whatever the cost, whatever the impact on jobs, whatever the impact on communities, and conveniently blame it on covid-19, rather than admit the reality that it has been self-induced as a result of dogma. This is economic self-harm brought on by the UK Government, cheered on by Dominic Cummings as he holds the reins of power in Downing Street—well, not in our name.

We know that the UK is not even ready for leaving the EU at the end of December. The Government’s own International Trade Secretary has warned of possible legal challenges from the World Trade Organisation; increased smuggling from the EU if not all UK ports are ready to carry out checks; concerns about the protocol if EU tariffs are applied to all goods heading for Northern Ireland by default; and the undermining of the UK’s international trade policy. The NAO said that the Tory Government’s 2019 £100 million Get Ready for Brexit campaign was ineffective and made no clear difference—another monumental waste of scarce resources. Can the Minister, when she rises to respond, tell us how much money will be wasted on the new Let’s Get Going campaign?

Then there is the issue of lost EU funding—something that has been so critical for Scotland for so many decades. “Not to worry”, we are told, “The UK will step in with a shared prosperity fund”. Where is it? Where is the shared prosperity fund? There has been no detailed information from the UK Government on how the fund will operate. Can the Minister update us?

The European Commission’s Brexit preparedness publication also makes for grim reading. Certificates of authorisations will no longer be valid for placing products in EU markets. Products certified by UK-based bodies will no longer automatically be allowed into the EU. All service firms will lose access to the single market unless equivalence arrangements are in place to ensure that standards are the same in the UK and the EU. The visa exemption for UK nationals does not provide for the right to work in the EU and is subject to the reciprocity mechanism applying to third countries. It could be suspended if EU citizens ceased to be given visa-free access to the United Kingdom for short stays: the right to work and travel freely in the EU—rights we have enjoyed for more than 47 years—ripped up, opportunities cut off, hopes shattered, dreams crushed, and for what?

Experts and industry figures have been clear: businesses will not be ready for the end of the transition period at the end of this year. More than 100 UK company chiefs, entrepreneurs and business groups have written to the Prime Minister saying that businesses simply do not have the time or capacity to prepare for big changes in trading rules by the end of the year, especially given that we are already grappling with the upheaval caused by coronavirus. They can see that, we can see that; the only people who cannot are the Government Front Bench and their cheerleaders on the Back Benches.

[Gareth Johnson (Dartford) (Con)]

Is the right hon. Gentleman aware that the CBI—hardly the biggest fan of Brexit—says that if we extend the implementation period it will create uncertainty for business and completely advises against it? What does he know that the CBI doesn’t?

[Ian Blackford]

I could read out statistics from all sorts of business organisations that are, quite frankly, scared stiff about what ending the transition will mean.

A survey by the Institute of Directors tells us that three out of four business leaders believe that their organisation is not ready for the end of the transition period and that one in seven says that dealing with the pandemic has taken up bandwidth that would have been devoted to preparing for Brexit. The Institute for Government says that in normal circumstances meeting

“the 31 December deadline would have been heroic: doing so in the midst of an international health crisis, with the energies of governments across Europe focused on their handling of the outbreak, seems out of reach.”

Jimmy Buchan, chief executive of the Scottish Seafood Association, said:

“We are within six months of Brexit and we still do not know what the future holds for us.”

That is the uncertainty that businesses are facing. For many businesses that manage to survive the coronavirus crisis, this second, Brexit shock would hit them at their weakest and could be the final straw that puts them out of business—more jobs lost, more households in desperate situations, and all because of the intransigence of the Tory Government.

It does not have to be like this. We on the SNP Benches welcome the EU’s openness to extending the transition period for negotiations. Six political parties from every nation of the United Kingdom wrote to Michel Barnier calling for the UK and the EU to agree a two-year extension. In a letter to me, representing the SNP, along with the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru, the Social Democratic and Labour party, the Green party and the Alliance party, the EU’s chief negotiator confirmed:

“an extension of up to one or two years can be agreed jointly by the two parties. The European Union has always said that we remain open on this matter.”

Mr Barnier said that any extension decision should have been taken by the Joint Committee “before 1 July”. We have been given an olive branch—a get-out-of-jail-free card—but the Prime Minister has failed to grasp it. The UK Government have set themselves to crash out of the EU with a devastating bad deal or a catastrophic no-deal.

All the while, EU leaders have highlighted the lack of progress in negotiations. Angela Merkel recently said:

“To put it mildly, progress in the negotiations has been very limited. I will continue to press for a good solution. But we in the EU and also in Germany must and should prepare for the event that an agreement is not reached after all.”

That should deeply worry all of us.

There is still time to change course. The Institute for Government has made it clear that there are mechanisms for an extension. It cites four legal options for extending the transition period: amend the end date of the transition period in the withdrawal agreement; create a new transition period to begin on 1 January 2021, which would mean striking a new agreement alongside future relationship negotiations; include an implementation phase as part of the future relationship treaty; or create an implementation phase to prepare for a potential no-deal exit.

The Scottish Government have set out the evidence to back up the arguments for an extension to the transition. Their analysis has revealed that ending the transition period in 2020 could remove £3 billion from the Scottish economy in just two years—£3 billion in just two years. Are our colleagues from Scottish Tory constituencies prepared to sit back and see that self-harm take place against their constituents, or for once, are they going to stand up for us, stand up with us and stand up for Scotland?

The Scottish Government’s analysis revealed that ending the transition period will be calamitous—a £3 billion hit to Scotland made in Westminster and delivered by this Prime Minister and his Government. A no-deal Brexit scenario has greater economic implications and could see the economy 8.5% smaller by 2030 compared with the scenario of continued EU membership. That is the price that Scotland will have to pay if we stay in the Union of the United Kingdom. Those are eye-watering numbers, but behind the statistics is the human cost: unemployment, hardship, poverty—Scotland paying the price for Tory dogma.

I take no pleasure in saying that UK relations with the Scottish Government are worse than ever under this Prime Minister’s leadership. We have been increasingly concerned at the lack of any meaningful consultation with the Scottish Government and other devolved nations on the Brexit talks and at the growing threat of a Tory power grab in devolved areas, including agriculture and food standards—all for a Brexit fantasy that Scotland never gave its consent to and that is now being used as a power grab from the Scottish Parliament, and for a future that we never voted for.

It is worth reminding folk in Scotland of the promises that were made in 2014 during the independence campaign. If we stayed in the UK, we would be staying in Europe. Well, we stayed in the UK, and we have been taken out against our will. All the way through this process, the Scottish Government have sought to achieve a compromise to best protect jobs. [Interruption.] We talk about compromise, and the Tory MPs laugh at Scotland. That is the way that Scotland is treated by the Tories in this House. They ought to be ashamed of themselves. Carry on, because people in Scotland will be listening.

We have said that staying in the single market and the customs union is the least worst option for jobs and our communities. At every turn, we have been shut out, shouted down and disregarded. It is little wonder that so many who voted to stay in the UK in 2014 now recognise the UK they voted to remain in no longer exists. It is little wonder that poll after poll shows a majority for independence. So many see our future as an independent country in Europe—an outward-looking Scotland, working constructively with others—and see this as a choice of a progressive future with independence, or one of staying with an increasingly inward-looking UK. [Interruption.] The Under-Secretary of State for Scotland, the hon. Member for Banff and Buchan (David Duguid) keeps chuntering away from a sedentary position. If he wants to say something, I will allow him to get in. [Interruption.] Well, perhaps he would not continue to shout and chunter; it is most disrespectful to everybody, including his own constituents.

[David Linden (Glasgow East) (SNP)]

My right hon. Friend speaks about the polling, which shows that we are only going in one direction as support for independence has gone up. Does my right hon. Friend agree with my analysis that the UK Government are clearly carrying out polling on a regular basis—we know that the Cabinet Office is carrying out that polling—and does he, like me, want to see the UK Government publish the polling analysis that is being paid for by taxpayers, which will show that support for Scottish independence is on the rise?

[Ian Blackford]

Indeed, let us have transparency. Let us have some openness. The UK Government should indeed publish that information.

Where does power lie today in the United Kingdom? The Prime Minister has invested political and Executive oversight in an unelected adviser, Dominic Cummings. We know that a Green Paper is to be published tomorrow, ahead of a joint ministerial meeting with the devolved Governments, that is nothing more than a blatant power grab under the guise of the establishment of a UK internal market. When this Tory Government said they wanted to take back control, they did not mean just from Brussels; they meant from Edinburgh, they meant from Cardiff and they meant from Belfast. This Tory Government’s contempt for devolution has always been known. They fought against devolution in 1997, and they lost.

Of course, the covid crisis has seen the Scottish Government give effective leadership to the people who live in Scotland. The success of that leadership is reflected in the high standing of our First Minister not just with the public in Scotland, but elsewhere—[Interruption.] Again, I hear the laughing and the chuntering. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister and his team have dithered and given out mixed messages. Rather than recognise and applaud the success of the Scottish Government, the Tories want to attack them. The Tories cannot come to terms with our Scottish Government providing effective leadership, so they want to constrain our Parliament—that is the reality—and not just our Parliament, but the Parliaments in Wales and in Northern Ireland.

I am grateful that the Welsh First Minister is standing shoulder to shoulder with us, and I am asking our colleagues in the Labour party—

[Hon. Members]

Where are they?

[Ian Blackford]

Where are they, indeed. Members should not worry, because the SNP will provide an effective Opposition.

I am respectfully asking my friends in the Labour party who are present to stand with us. We went through the Lobby together to establish devolution, and devolution is now under attack from this Tory Government. There is a question to be asked of the Labour party: will they stand with us? [Interruption.] It would be helpful if they would turn up, but I hope when it comes to votes —and there is going to be a fight over the coming months—that we stand shoulder to shoulder against this attack on devolution in Scotland, in Wales and in Northern Ireland.

What is now taking place is nothing more than an undignified attempt to neuter the Scottish Parliament. Let me put the Tories on notice that we will stand up for the sovereign rights of our Parliament enshrined by the referendum result and by the establishment of our Parliament. Let me remind the Tories: our Parliament was established by overwhelming numbers in 1997. It belongs to the people of Scotland.

[The Lord Commissioner of Her Majesty’s Treasury (David Rutley)]

Not the SNP!

[Ian Blackford]

“Not the SNP!” Do I really have to take that? I know the hon. Member represents an English seat and perhaps he does not pay much attention, but if he looks at every one of the results of elections to the Scottish Parliament since 2007 and to Westminster since 2015, as well as the European results, he will see that the people of Scotland have put their trust in the SNP to defend them from the kind of attacks that we have from the Tory Benches. [Interruption.] I hear, “What about a referendum?” so let me say this. We went to the people of Scotland last December and we stood on the principle of Scotland’s right to choose. We got 45% of the vote. There is a bigger gap between us and the Tories than there is between the Tories and Labour in the United Kingdom. We won that election, by any definition. The people of Scotland elected us in 48 of the 59 constituencies. There are six Tories from Scotland. We won that election. I accept that the Conservatives won the election in the UK, but that means that it is incumbent on the Conservatives to recognise that the SNP won in Scotland.

[David Duguid (Banff and Buchan) (Con)]

No, it’s not.

[Ian Blackford]

“No, it’s not”—well, there we are: democracy Tory-style. The Tories think that they can simply ignore the people of Scotland. I say to them: carry on, because people are saying now that support for the SNP and support for independence is rising, and you will not stop the people of Scotland determining our own future. It is ours to choose and we will not be stopped by any Tory Government.

[Several hon. Members rose—]

[Ian Blackford]

I am going to make some progress.

A Scottish Government assessment of the proposal that is coming tomorrow shows that successful pioneering policies such as minimum unit pricing for alcohol, our no tuition fees policy and the smoking ban would face the unelected body that the Conservatives now want to put in place. The proposed establishment of an unelected external body to determine whether a Bill in the Scottish Parliament has met a new test is outrageous. It is completely undemocratic and will not be accepted. Westminster, under these plans, will have the power to block the legislative process in Scotland under the guise of this new body, so that Scotland’s elected representatives could not decide what is best for Scotland. The internal market plan would also require standards in one part of the UK to be automatically accepted in others. This would be a serious threat to Scotland’s high food standards.

Any forthcoming legislation on these plans needs the consent of the Scottish Parliament. The decisions of the Scottish Parliament must be respected. Will the Minister confirm that Westminster will recognise the importance of consent from the Scottish Parliament, and accept that if consent is not granted the legislation cannot be passed? That is the historical position.

The internal market plan also suggests that the UK Government will include state aid in their power grab. The Scottish and Welsh Governments have been clear that state aid policy should be devolved under current legislation. They want to stay closely aligned with the EU state aid rules. Legal experts have noted that Westminster’s decision to legislate to make state aid policy a reserved power was an implicit recognition that the UK Government were not confident of winning the argument in court. We already know that this Tory Government will do what they want to Scotland with regard to state aid if they get their way on this. Of course, the Tories have form. In 1992, John Major’s Government diverted cash from the highlands to try to boost dwindling Conservative support in south-east England.

Let us be clear: the UK faces a constitutional crisis. Scotland continues to be completely ignored by Westminster and Westminster has proved itself to be utterly incapable of acting in Scotland’s interests. With the exception of the Scottish Tories, who have completely isolated themselves, the Scottish Parliament is united against the moves to erode Scotland’s devolved settlement. All the Opposition parties, as well as the SNP in government, recognise this threat to devolution coming from the Tories. The Scottish Tories remain tin-eared. The UK Government must recognise that Scotland has a choice: we either accept the downgrading of our Parliament or we choose to become an independent country. Let me appeal to those who live in Scotland to join the momentum. There is another way: we can stop the power grab, we can defend our interests, and we can finish our journey to independence.

People want an extension, and in Scotland people have a right to an extension. Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain in the European Union. A new poll has put support for Scottish independence at 54%, and that is the second Panelbase poll to show such figures in recent weeks. This marks the highest level of support for the SNP and independence ever, in any poll of its kind. The recent polling on independence shows the unstoppable power of people choosing their own future.

Since the Westminster election of 2019, a majority of polls have shown support for independence in the lead. Commenting on the findings, Professor John Curtice said:

“Never before have the foundations of public support for the Union looked so weak.”

He explained that

“the past three months have exemplified how Scotland could govern itself better as an independent, small country”.

Even a casual observer could draw that conclusion, based on how the Scottish Government led by Nicola Sturgeon have dealt with the covid-19 crisis compared with this UK Government. Indeed, Nicola Sturgeon scores more highly with English voters than the Prime Minister does—[Laughter.] Conservative Members think the fact that the Prime Minister is unpopular, certainly in Scotland, is funny. We do not think it is funny; we think it is something much worse than that. It is now impossible for the UK Government to deny Scotland a choice over its future .The Prime Minister may be the best recruiting tool for Scottish independence since Margaret Thatcher.

The cost of leaving the EU and managing a health crisis simultaneously is unacceptable, particularly when we could be facing a covid second wave in the winter. If the Prime Minister and the Tories fail to seek an extension, if they push ahead with their power grab, and if they continue to impose a future on Scotland that we never voted for, the choice will be clear. The only way to protect Scotland’s economy and our place at the heart of Europe is to become an independent country, and that day is coming. We can provide our road map to independence. We will have our say. Scotland will become an independent country.

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[Brendan O’Hara (Argyll and Bute) (SNP)]

It is an experience to follow the hon. Member for Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (John Lamont), with his typical hysterical and emotion-filled contribution. I will resist the temptation to follow a lot of where he attempted to lead this debate.

[Ian Blackford]

Will my hon. Friend give way?

[Brendan O’Hara]

I will give way in a moment, but first I will thank my right hon. Friend for the thoughtful way in which he opened the debate. He laid out clearly why we believe that it is the best interests of everyone across these islands that the UK Government, even at this late stage, seek an extension to the transition period. He is absolutely correct that at a time of economic crisis, in the middle of a global pandemic for which there is currently no vaccine and when no one knows where or when the next wave will come or how severe it will be, it is beyond madness for this Government to believe that it will be possible to conduct and conclude all the necessary negotiations and implement the results within the next five months. The reality is that the Government know it—they know that cannot happen.

Without an extension to the transition period, the UK will almost certainly crash out of the European Union at the end of the year, with all the economic chaos that will inevitably follow, and those who in 2016 were regarded as the not to be taken seriously, wide-eyed extremists on the fringes of the Conservative party will have won. They will have achieved their goal.

My right hon. Friend was also absolutely right when he reminded the House that this is being done to Scotland by a Government we did not elect who are pursuing a policy that we overwhelmingly rejected. In the 2016 EU referendum, the people of Scotland said unequivocally that we wished to remain part of the European Union. That message has been reinforced time and again since 2016, in both general elections and in last year’s European elections.

[Brendan O’Hara]

I respectfully say to the hon. Gentleman that democracy is a constantly evolving process—it is not a one-off event. I know that this will be a problem for many Government Members, but people have the right to change their minds. Politicians have the right to bring back ideas for themselves and for the public to decide upon. In fact, the Tories’ deputy leader in Holyrood has been beaten more times than my granny’s old carpet, but he comes back time and again, as is perfectly his right so to do. It ill behoves the hon. Member for Redcar (Jacob Young) to stand there like some kind of imperial overlord telling Scotland that it can only go so far and no further. This Tory Government will not decide Scotland’s future. The people of Scotland will decide Scotland’s future.

[Ian Blackford]

I congratulate my hon. Friend on the thoughtful way he is dealing with these issues. I just want to respond on the issue of Scotland being open and make it crystal clear that Scotland is open. We are an open country; we are an open democracy; and we want people to come to Scotland irrespective of where they come from. We find that there are issues to do with public health that the First Minister is taking responsibility for. That is what responsible Governments do. Let me make it crystal clear that, with Scotland now being open for business, people from England are welcome to come to Scotland, and I know that my hon. Friend will agree with that.

[Brendan O’Hara]

I thank my right hon. Friend for that intervention, and I absolutely agree.

Numerous opinion polls since the referendum of 2016 have shown that the desire of Scots to remain in the European Union is strengthening and hardening as time goes by, because not only are they being dragged out the European Union against their will, but it is being done by a Government who are seemingly hellbent on doing it in the most damaging and reckless fashion possible, including refusing even to consider extending the transition period. That is why I firmly believe that Scotland is moving towards becoming an independent nation.

The debate in Scotland is not now framed in terms of “should” and “could”. More and more, that debate is framed in terms of how and when Scotland becomes an independent nation. As my right hon. Friend said, the polls bear this out. The highly respected pollster Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University said just last week:

“Never before have the foundations of public support for the Union looked so weak.”

That is because, increasingly, those Scots with no particular emotional attachment to the United Kingdom who in 2014, after careful consideration, decided against independence for whatever reason are changing their minds. Those Scots who, maybe with a heavy heart but in good faith, decided in 2014 that independence was a step too far and who were perhaps seduced by the idea of being in a partnership of equals or liked the idea of Scotland staying and leading the United Kingdom, who believed the promises that their Parliament in Edinburgh would become the world’s strongest devolved Parliament, or who truly believed that only by sticking with the United Kingdom could their citizenship of the European Union be guaranteed are changing their minds. Opinion poll after opinion poll tells us that they are changing their minds in droves.

That crucial, pragmatic group of people who will look at an issue, weigh up the pros and cons and come to a considered decision based on what is best for them, their families, their communities and the country are increasingly saying that an independent Scotland is the only viable option, particularly when set against the madness they see unfolding here. They are doing it quietly. They will not shout about it. Mercifully, they will not go on Twitter and have a fight about it. They will do it, as they have done in the past, by looking at the available options and doing what they honestly believe is the right thing.

Let us be clear: the United Kingdom, by its actions since 2014, has brought about its own demise. The United Kingdom is the architect of its own downfall. Every bit as much as the SNP, under the exceptional leadership of First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, has been pulling Scotland towards independence, so this Government have been actively pushing Scotland towards the exit door. I am sure that in decades to come, scholars and academics will produce theses on the end days of the United Kingdom. They will debate whether this UK Government were utterly incompetent and arrogant to the point of stupidity or whether this was in fact all part of a great Tory plan.

For what it is worth to students of history reading Hansard decades and centuries in the future, I reckon at the moment that it is probably the former. But I can see how someone could come to conclude that it was the latter. If the United Kingdom Government were serious about preserving the Union in 2014, following the narrow no vote in the referendum, they could have decided to make good on their promises to Scotland. If they were serious about preserving the Union in 2015, they could, following the election of 56 SNP MPs to this place, have decided to ensure that in any future EU referendum Scotland’s voice would be heard and Scotland’s decision respected.

If the Government were serious about preserving the Union in 2016, after every single part of Scotland voted to remain in the European Union, they could have decided that the hard, no-deal Brexit was off the table. If they were serious about preserving the Union in 2019, after they lost more than half their Scottish MPs and saw their vote share in Scotland collapse, they could have decided not to indulge in a shameless power grab, trying to seek back the powers of the Scottish Parliament. If they were serious about preserving the Union in 2020, having seen Scottish public opinion swing towards independence, they could have rowed back from the brink of Brexit calamity, agreed to an extension period and sought to salvage something from the wreckage that is Brexit.

But no, the Government did not. Such is their arrogance and misplaced self-assuredness, and so blind and disdainful are they about what is happening across a border that only last week they told us did not actually exist, that they, like zealots, are ploughing on with the project regardless of the inevitable consequences. It would even appear that their oft-vaunted precious Union is expendable for the project. If someone is a Scottish farmer terrified at being put out of business when the UK is flooded with cheap, low-grade meat and poultry from America, or a Scottish hotelier tearing their hair out wondering where next season’s workers are to come from, or a Scottish health board worker trying to work out how to recruit in subsequent years EU nationals to work in our health and social care sector, or a young Scot seeking to live and work in other European nations and take advantage of the opportunities that every single person in this room today has taken advantage of, then that is just too bad. The bottom line is that their voices do not get to be heard. Their opinions do not get to be counted; their fears and concerns are just not important enough to matter. The only thing that matters to this Government is the project.

--- Later in debate ---

[Douglas Ross]

I agree with the hon. Lady. The pathetic actions by some SNP Members in response to a legitimate point made by one of my political opponents show their narrow-mindedness, not just in this debate but every time there is a debate in the House of Commons. It was only one of a number of confusing comments from the SNP in the debate and, sadly, I think we will hear more this afternoon.

I want to come on to a point that I made in my intervention on the right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber. It was unbefitting of him and his party not even to recognise the broad shoulders of the United Kingdom during the pandemic. People in Scotland, whether they support the Scottish National party, the Scottish Conservatives, the Scottish Liberal Democrats, the Scottish Labour party or the Scottish Greens, or whether they have no party affiliation at all, recognise that during a pandemic, when people were looking for health and economic responses, the UK Government went above and beyond, with one of the strongest and most comprehensive arrangements anywhere in the world, to support individuals, businesses and communities.

Almost £13 billion was provided to protect hundreds of thousands of jobs, with support for the self-employed. Support from the UK Treasury went to the Scottish Government, which they sent to local government in Scotland to support businesses with grants of £10,000 to £25,000. That is by any measure the broad shoulders of the United Kingdom supporting every part of the UK: Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and England. Whether Members disagree with the Government or with the Conservatives more generally, I hope they would all accept that it is because of that that we have got to this stage of the pandemic in as strong a place as possible.

[Ian Blackford]

Let us try to bring some grace to the debate. I agree with the hon. Gentleman on something: when we are dealing with a pandemic, it is important that we work together. I shall use an example of something that happened in my constituency, on the Isle of Skye, where there was an outbreak in Home Farm care home. The testing by NHS Highland and the UK-wide testing was put in place to make sure that we supported the community and we got to a position where we controlled the outbreak. That is an example of the benefits of the two systems coming together, so I am happy to give credit where it is due.

Let me also mention the job retention scheme, which we welcome. I stress on behalf of my colleagues in the Scottish Government and the SNP that, where appropriate, we will work with the UK Government—that is what we have to do in this crisis—but will the hon. Gentleman join me in recognising that we need flexibility in the scheme, particularly to support our rural industries for as long as necessary, so that they can come back with as strong an economy as possible?

[Douglas Ross]

I thank the right hon. Gentleman, particularly for his earlier remarks. It is perhaps a milestone in the debate to have some consensual discussion between the opposing sides. On the job retention scheme, he asked for flexibility and, again, I hope he will accept that the UK Government delivered that. When it was established at pace not just by the Ministers and the Treasury but by Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs, there were strict rules, which were necessary, but listening to concerns from Scottish businesses, communities and others across the whole UK, the Chancellor and the UK Government amended it to allow the flexibility that he is asking for. On further flexibility, the right hon. Gentleman will know that many countries across Europe are winding down their job retention schemes, because it is impossible to continue them much longer.

--- Later in debate ---

[Pete Wishart]

I will tell the hon. Gentleman something about condemning things. I condemned what happened on the border a couple of weeks ago within an hour. I will condemn any of that type of activity: whether it is Unionists and loyalists protesting in Glasgow’s George Square, or whether it is activists on the border, I will condemn them. I invite the Scottish Conservatives to condemn those other protests too.

We all have great fun observing what is happening with the “negotiations”—these things that the Government turn up to with the EU. We in Scotland, I suppose, are just a bit more dispassionate about these things. We observe what is happening.

On the one side, we see the EU negotiating team, briefed to the eyeballs, with intimate knowledge of every detail of the withdrawal agreement and political declaration, negotiating in good faith and determined to protect the integrity of the single market and the institutions that have built up over the decades. Then the UK team turn up, and before they have even had the chance to lace up their clown shoes, the EU are running all over them.

The UK team are clueless—no idea what they want, constantly shifting the goal posts. I will tell the House what it is like: it is like the Scotland team of the 2020s out there on the field against the Brazil team of the 1970s. It is that one-sided. It is no wonder that the Europeans are running circles around them just now. It might all just be a clever ploy: perhaps the Government are setting things up to fail so that they get their coveted no deal, which is exactly what they are after. Nobody could be negotiating as badly and poorly as the UK team just now.

Scotland is making up its mind. A majority of people in Scotland now want it to be an independent nation; we have now reached sustained majority support. The thing is that we are doing well in not just the traditional communities—middle Scotland is joining us now. Do Members know who the most passionate supporters of Scottish independence are now? They are “no” voting remainers, who are flooding to our cause. I thank them for being the biggest recruiting sergeants for Scottish independence that we could possibly get. I thank them for driving many more people to the cause of Scottish independence.

[Ian Blackford]

Will my hon. Friend join me in giving some friendly advice to the Government? Devolution has been around for only 20 years—it is a relatively short time in our history. We are proud of our Parliament, and we want it to be independent. People have a real sense of pride, right across Scotland, in what our Parliament has achieved. I have to say in friendly terms to the Government that tomorrow they will introduce a White Paper—we know more about that now, and crucially, in that White Paper, they set up an unelected body that will determine whether or not the Acts of the Scottish Parliament are competent within the new framework that the UK is establishing. It is really quite remarkable—

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Dame Rosie Winterton)]

Order. That is quite a long intervention. Pete Wishart.

[Ian Blackford]

If you say so, Madam Deputy Speaker. This is the most crucial measure on devolution and it is right that we raise the issue properly. I say to the

Deputy Speaker that Scotland’s voice will be heard.

[Madam Deputy Speaker]

Order. That was extremely rude.

[Ian Blackford]

I beg to differ—[Interruption.]

[Madam Deputy Speaker]

I know they are, but there should be—[Interruption.] The right hon. Gentleman must resume his seat. Pete Wishart.

--- Later in debate ---

[The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Scotland (Iain Stewart)]

I am grateful for the opportunity to wind up this important debate. It has been passionate, robust and, on the whole, good-natured. We have had over 40 contributions over the past six hours or so. I will do my best to respond to all the points that Members have made, but if I forget or do not have time to respond to every individual point, I hope Members will accept my apologies.

Let me start with the hon. Member for Perth and North Perthshire (Pete Wishart). I do not want to sully his reputation, but I have long admired his passion and humour and the theatrics with which he puts forward his cause. However, on the substance—this will not surprise him, and I do not want to disappoint him—I profoundly disagree.

Let me let me start by debunking this manufactured grievance that the UK internal market proposals, which will be published tomorrow, somehow amount to a power grab or to disrespect for the devolution settlement. That is absolutely not the case. Many Opposition Members have confected another row, before the document is even published and before they have seen it. That says it all.

We have already had some overtures.

[Ian Blackford]

I am grateful to the Minister for giving way. I have to say to him that I have received a press release from his Government. Why are the Government briefing on a White Paper, when Parliament has not been informed of this? It is a matter of record between the two Governments that a body will be established that will have oversight over the Bills and Acts that come in front of the Scottish Parliament. That utterly disrespects the referendum in Scotland in 1997, and the Minister needs to think about not just the SNP and the Scottish Government, but the people of Scotland, who voted for devolution.

[Iain Stewart]

A press release! If the right hon. Gentleman bides his time, my right hon. Friend the Business Secretary will make a statement, quite properly, to this House tomorrow. Hon. Members will have a full opportunity to discuss many of the—

[Ian Blackford]

rose—

[Iain Stewart]

How rude of the right hon. Gentleman. That says it all. SNP Members do not have the courtesy to listen to the answers that have been given.

--- Later in debate ---

The list of Members currently certified as eligible for a proxy vote, and of the Members nominated as their proxy, is published at the end of today’s debates.

[Ian Blackford]

On a point of order, Madam Deputy Speaker. Thank you, I am most grateful. I have received a press release, which has come from the UK Government this afternoon, about a White Paper that will be issued tomorrow morning. It covers the issues of the devolved institutions and the establishment of a UK-wide market. I have to say that we on this side of the House are absolutely furious that this matter has been briefed to the press. I have not, as was suggested earlier, been informed by “Newsnight”, but from elsewhere. Moreover, not only has this been briefed to the press, which I would suggest is discourteous to this House, but none of the devolved institutions has been informed of this White Paper ahead of the media briefings this evening.

Can I ask what mechanisms are open to us, now that we know this is in the public domain—yet the Minister has not sought to inform the House—to summon the Minister to explain this this evening? Moreover, the reason for the importance of this, despite what has been said from the Government Front Bench, is that it will lead, if it is passed, to the establishment of a body that will have oversight of legislation that comes in front of the devolved institutions. We will have to justify, for example, what we have done on tuition fees, or what we have done on the minimum pricing of alcohol. It is an attack on devolution pure and simple, and we must have the opportunity, now that the Government have communicated this to the media, to make sure that we hold this Government to account this evening and without delay.

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Dame Rosie Winterton)]

I thank the right hon. Gentleman for his point of order, and for giving me notice of it. I certainly got the impression that he made his feelings known about this during the course of the debate. I think the House is not unaware of that. With regard to a Minister coming to the House this evening, I have no notice of that, but I believe there is certainly going to be a statement tomorrow on this issue, and I am sure at that point he will have the opportunity to reiterate his views. In the meantime, those on the Treasury Bench have heard what he had to say, and will have noted it and will, I am sure, report back.

Financial and Social Emergency Support Package

Ian Blackford Excerpts

Wednesday 25th March 2020 Commons Chamber

[Ian Blackford (Ross, Skye and Lochaber) (SNP)]

It is a considerable pleasure to speak in this debate on the motion that has been tabled by my right hon. Friend the Leader of the Opposition. It has always been a privilege to follow him in a debate, as I often have to do, and it is very much so on this occasion.

We are now a number of weeks into this emergency, and yet its impact and the measures required to fight it remain shocking to all of us. This virus has come to dominate not only everything that we do, but all our thoughts. It is truly all-consuming. The misery of this virus will undoubtedly come to define this period, but it must not come to define how we as human beings have responded to it. As we collectively face the difficulties of the weeks and months ahead, it is right that we reflect on all that is good about the human spirit of service and sacrifice that reaches into every corner of these islands. That duty and sacrifice has been seen day after day across our communities in our health services, our police, our carers, our civil servants, our small businesses and so much more.

This is primarily a health crisis, but its economic impact is deepening by the day. Thousands have already lost their jobs and millions are threatened with the same. People are deeply and genuinely worried about keeping their income, protecting their families and keeping a roof over their heads. My party has been open and public in welcoming some of the measures brought forward by the Chancellor last Friday, but we have also been crystal clear that more needs to be done, and done now.

There has been one massive gap in the Government’s economic response to the crisis: so far, the self-employed and the unemployed have been left behind, and left to wait. They have been left with no protection and have been left to live with that uncertainty for weeks. I am sure that all Members across the House have been inundated with emails from people living in those terrible circumstances. They are rightly worried: they are worried about putting food on the table; they are worried about looking after their family; they are worried about keeping a roof over their head.

On Saturday, I wrote to the Chancellor calling for an urgent cross-party meeting. I am saddened to say that I have not had a reply. The SNP has pressed the UK Government to introduce a financial package of support for self-employed and unemployed people. They cannot wait any longer.

We have proposed four key measures that would help. I again ask the Chancellor to ensure that everyone has a guaranteed income by using the tax and welfare systems to put money directly in people’s pockets through a universal basic income, reverse national insurance or another similar mechanism. I ask him to raise the UK’s statutory sick pay to the EU national average and expand entitlement to the self-employed and those under the earnings threshold. I ask him to include self-employed people in the coronavirus job retention scheme, providing the same support for the self-employed that has been announced for employees. That would be the right thing to do; that would show compassion for all our people in their time of need.

The coronavirus lockdown makes it even more urgent that the UK Government deliver a comprehensive financial package of support for the millions of freelance, self-employed and unemployed people who are struggling to get by in this unprecedented emergency. There is no good reason why these moves should be put on hold when people are already in need. We in Parliament should be debating the Government’s response today.

If we are truly to fight this crisis together, there is a desperate need to protect those who were vulnerable before the pandemic and are more vulnerable now. That means strengthening social security protections, increasing child benefit and making universal credit more flexible. Once again, my party has brought forward practical and compassionate solutions.

On universal credit, we have proposed introducing an immediate up-front payment, not a hardship loan; extending the backdating of benefits for those who might not have realised they were eligible and relaxing the criteria under which backdating is allowable; providing a new one-off hardship payment for self-employed people who are impacted; removing the nine-month qualification period for support with mortgage interest and providing a one-off grant for mortgage holders making new claims; removing the capital tariff reduction to universal credit when claimants have £16,000 in savings; removing the shared accommodation rate from the local housing allowance for both universal credit and housing benefit; stopping the bedroom tax; and uprating employment and support allowance and the personal independence payment.

Those are practical measures that are needed to protect the most vulnerable through this crisis period. I am often reminded of the phrase I have used in this Chamber before: society is only as strong as its weakest link. How we protect these people will be the truest test of how we all respond to this crisis, and if we truly meet the challenge of this time together.

It is right and proper that Government step in with solutions and supports. Government must rise to the challenge, because our communities are already rising to the challenge before them. Given the enormity of the challenge ahead, it would be easy and understandable for people to feel overwhelmed and frightened to function, yet all that we hear—and all of our experience tells us—is that their reaction has been the exact opposite.

Since the crisis began, people have risen to all the unknowns that have confronted them. Day in, day out, they continue to do it, in the full knowledge that the worst is yet to come. It is their spirit and example that strengthens our faith that we will get through this together. It is that partnership across every single aspect and element of society that will see us through this crisis. It is a crisis that has suddenly reminded us of just how fragile our world is, but it also reminds us of what really matters: our health, our community spirit and our solidarity. If we stay true to those values, we will come through.

I conclude by paying my own tribute to two individuals in this Chamber who have given long service in the defence of public investment, institutions and protecting the vulnerable. I know that today is perhaps the final occasion when the Leader of the Opposition and the shadow Chancellor will lead their party into debate in this House. This is a very appropriate debate to mark that end. I know that for both of them, community activism has always taken prominence ahead of parliamentary routine, but I also know that the constituencies they serve in this House have benefited greatly from the care, diligence and representation they have both given for decades. I have worked constructively with the Leader of the Opposition since the election. We have met on numerous occasions and had wide-ranging discussions.

[Jeremy Corbyn]

And good biscuits.

[Ian Blackford]

Indeed—sometimes that has been to the frustration of our respective advisers, Jeremy, if I may use that word in this context.

From his beloved allotment to an expansive interest in international affairs, the Leader of the Opposition could never be accused of limiting his interests or his ambitions. He has contributed to debate and diversity in this House and across these islands. If I may say to the right hon. Gentleman, I have enjoyed our engagement. No doubt we will continue to meet in the Tea Room and discuss the merits of allotments and crofting—you may be excluded from those, John—but one thing is for sure, I know that he is not the retiring type. His enthusiasm for issues and activism is in no danger of dimming.

In recent months, I am sure the shadow Chancellor has taken some comfort from the fact that the Conservative Chancellor appears to be embracing a more expansionist state. Perhaps they have passed around the little red book that he gave to George Osborne a few years ago. However, I do have a suggestion for him. As he returns to the Back Benches, I would suggest he now has the time to write a little red book all of his own. He is uniquely qualified in the House to write it, and I suspect, in the current context, people are about to get back into the habit of reading.

The shadow Chancellor has a lot to look forward to in the weeks ahead. Despite the fact that the premier league is postponed, it is only a matter of time before his faithful following of Liverpool football club will pay dividends with a title after a 30-year wait. Not even the virus will be allowed to get in the way of that. I can only hope that my beloved Hibernian will one day scale the heights of the Scottish league and deliver our championship. If the shadow Chancellor thinks 30 years is a long time, try 63. Mind you, having waited 114 years for the Scottish cup success to be delivered, as it was in 2016, we can wait. I wish both the right hon. Members and their families every best wish as they return to the Back Benches of this House.

--- Later in debate ---

[Chi Onwurah]

It is an essential service for his fortune, but not in this crisis. He finally agreed to close his shops, hiking prices online while still making employees come into empty shops to act as security.

The Government’s payroll support and job retention scheme are very welcome, but we must have greater clarity for businesses on what they need to do to stand by their employees, as the Prime Minister said. Any private sector bail-out must have strings attached to it. Banks were bailed out in the 2008 financial crisis and people were rewarded with austerity. In this crisis, we must champion the good businesses that are doing the right thing.

[Ian Blackford]

I congratulate the hon. Lady, who is making a very gracious speech and a number of strong points. She is talking about the austerity that followed the bail-out of the banks, and one thing we need to put down as a marker today is that when we get through this crisis the poor must not pay the price a second time.

[Chi Onwurah]

The right hon. Gentlemen makes exactly the point that I was going to make. It is pleasing to see that that is at least agreed across the Opposition Benches, and I hope to hear a message from the Government that in this crisis, after this crisis, the people must be rewarded and not asked to bear the burden.

Economy and Jobs

Ian Blackford Excerpts

Monday 20th January 2020 Commons Chamber

[The Secretary of State for Work and Pensions (Dr Thérèse Coffey)]

It is an honour for me to conclude this debate on the Gracious Speech, Mr Speaker, and a great pleasure to see you in the Chair.

At the start of a new Parliament, we have particularly enjoyed hearing the maiden speeches of many new Members. Today we have heard from the hon. Member for Cynon Valley (Beth Winter), my hon. Friend the Member for Arundel and South Downs (Andrew Griffith), the hon. Member for Gordon (Richard Thomson), my hon. Friends the Members for Dover (Mrs Elphicke), for Kensington (Felicity Buchan), for Newcastle-under-Lyme (Aaron Bell), for Stoke-on-Trent Central (Jo Gideon), for North West Durham (Mr Holden) and for Loughborough (Jane Hunt), and the hon. Member for Nottingham East (Nadia Whittome). We have also heard again from my hon. Friends the Members for Eastbourne (Caroline Ansell) and for North East Bedfordshire (Richard Fuller). All of them have shown their passion and their commitment to their constituents.

Hon. Friends will be friends for life. I encourage them—and, indeed, all hon. Members—to be civil and respectful of each other across the Chamber, recognising that each of us was democratically elected to this place; but to respect the mandate that was given to this Conservative Government by the electorate last month, on which we set out the first part of honouring our manifesto commitments in the Queen’s Speech.

After a decade of recovery, we have a decade of renewal ahead of us, and the road map for a renaissance of our great country as we leave the EU next week and can take advantage of the opportunities to truly unleash Britain’s potential. The last decade has been challenging as we have had to recover from Labour’s record peacetime deficit. The famous note—“I’m afraid there’s no money”—reflected the economic crisis. Labour had splashed the cash, and took their eye off the horizon without being prudent about the unforeseen storms, particularly the global economic crash. We ended up with unemployment and income inequality both higher after they left office than when they had entered it.

We made some tough calls on spending, but we steadied the ship, and thanks to the resilience of the great British people, we have seen both economic growth and a record number of people working: 3.7 million more than in 2010, including record numbers of women and people with disabilities who are being supported so that they can fulfil their full potential. That record of success has not come about by chance. We have had a proactive, pro-business Government who have reduced taxes for employers and allowed businesses and employees to keep more of what they earn, which actually leads to increased tax revenues to support our public services. We have lifted more than 4 million people out of income tax altogether, and have increased the national living wage so that everyone gets a share in the country’s economic growth. We have also seen over a million new businesses start up, as people have the confidence and support to go out on their own and start to create new jobs. Behind the numbers are the inspirational stories of lives transformed by work: stories of hope, pride, determination and horizons opening up to new skills and better prospects.

Work is not just a wage. We will continue to help those who can work to work, not because we want them to get off our books but because a working life offers so much more purpose and potential than a life on benefits. I pay tribute to the Minister for Disabled People, Health and Work, my hon. Friend the Member for North Swindon (Justin Tomlinson), because this is shown by the numbers of disabled people entering work. In the last six years, 1.3 million have joined the labour market. No longer are they written off; they are contributing their considerable talents to the workplace and holding a stake in society. As a Government, we will not stop there. The new national strategy for disabled people will draw together how we operate to optimise the experience and participation of disabled people in society, better co-ordinating policy across Whitehall to meet their needs.

After challenging times for families in the country, we now have wages increasing ahead of inflation consistently. That has also helped pensioners, who will see a 3.9% increase in their state pension this April, and income inequality has yet again reduced under the Conservatives. Compared with 2010, there are 1 million fewer workless households, and 730,000 fewer children in such households. That is a record low number of children in workless households.

One of the Government’s fundamental principles is to help people get on in life, and my Department has a key role to play in that. The transformation in that approach is underpinned by the key principles of universal credit: people will be better off in work than not in work, unless they cannot work. We are removing the dystopian disincentives for people who wanted to work and earn more but were penalised under the legacy benefit system. This is a Government who do not just think that getting a job is job done. Work coaches across the country are helping people to get a job and to get on in that job. Helping people to progress in work is the future of employment and skills support. We will deliver this new approach through more support for childcare, creating a £3 billion national skills fund and repatriating the EU funds to create a UK shared prosperity fund. We will work as one Government with one vision to ensure that wherever you live and whatever your background, you can achieve your dreams and ambitions through work.

[Ian Blackford (Ross, Skye and Lochaber) (SNP)]

In this utopian vision that the Minister is presenting, I wonder what message she is delivering to the 3.8 million 1950s women who have been denied their pension. Where is the vision for the women who have been told that they will have to wait an additional six years?

[Dr Coffey]

As right hon. Gentleman knows, the original change in the legislation was done in 1995, and he will also know this is still under legal processes, so I cannot comment further.

However, I was just about to come on to people in later age. We will continue to support people in retirement and help them to prepare for retirement. Automatic enrolment has been a huge success, with 10 million employees joining workplace pension schemes since 2012, but we will go further to offer choice and protection through the Pension Schemes Bill in this Queen’s Speech. It will introduce three main measures: to help people to be better informed through their individual pension dashboard, which will allow them a better understanding of their path to a comfortable retirement and of how they can boost their savings; to create a new type of pension scheme that is sustainable for employers and employees; and to extend jail sentences for reckless bosses who plunder pension pots.

We want to ensure that people’s prosperity grows in a way that increases opportunity right across the country. That is at the heart of what my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister has put on the agenda to level up the whole of the UK economy and unleash our potential as a nation. As my right hon. Friend the Chancellor set out, we have ahead of us a decade of renewal through targeted investment in infrastructure, in skills and education and in our public services. That starts with the Queen’s Speech, with its 25 new Bills.

I really do not understand how anyone could disagree with any of the legislation going through. The employment (allocation of tips) Bill shows that we are the party of the worker, promoting fairness in the workplace and providing flexibility and security in jobs. The environment Bill will do much to ensure that we achieve net zero by 2050 and also support our natural environment and air quality. The NHS long-term plan funding Bill will legislate for the largest cash settlement in NHS history. The sentencing Bill and the serious violence Bill will make our streets safer and punish the most serious violent and sexual offenders. As the House knows, we will also continue to increase the living wage. This bold new agenda will show our constituents that this Government will deliver and stick to its promises.

I am conscious of the other matters that people have raised today. On zero-hours contracts, we are going further with the employment Bill, as I just outlined, but the coalition Government recognised the potential for such contracts to be used to exploit workers, which is why we banned the use of exclusivity clauses in 2015. I am also conscious of people using support networks, such as food banks, and that is why we are committed to helping people find work through a wide range of support targeted to each individual’s circumstances, which is why the help to claim support is there. The Government have lifted 400,000 people out of absolute poverty since 2010, and I reiterate again that income inequality has fallen.

Under this Government, people know that we are working on their priorities. We will rise to the challenge of reuniting and rejuvenating the country. As we enter a new decade and a new political era, the Prime Minister has shown a Britain renewed by our resolve to optimise its strengths at home and abroad. Whether people live in cities or towns, in the countryside or on the coast, this one nation Conservative Government are on their side. After the recovery of the economy and employment, we will continue to renew public services and our infrastructure, so that we can bring about a great renaissance in our country. That is why we do the work we do. The Conservative party is leading the charge, which is why I call upon the House to reject the amendments and commend this Queen’s Speech to everyone.

Question put, That the amendment be made.