Royal Navy: Climate Change Training

Earl of Minto Excerpts

Thursday 14th March 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord McColl of Dulwich]

To ask His Majesty’s Government what plans they have to introduce training for the Royal Navy on climate change.

[The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (The Earl of Minto) (Con)]

My Lords, the defence command plan refresh highlighted that defence is already being impacted by climate change and that we must face the reality of operating in a harsher climate and adapt accordingly, enhancing both our capabilities and our operational advantage. As part of the ongoing work to ensure that defence is resilient to the impact of climate change, we have introduced an awareness course on climate change and defence resilience for the Armed Forces and Ministry of Defence personnel. Currently there are no plans for that training to become mandatory.

[Lord McColl of Dulwich (Con)]

I thank my noble friend for that Answer. Will any training include the scientific record of how the climate has changed substantially without either human interference or causing human extinction? For example, during the Younger Dryas, about 12,000 years ago, the temperature fell dramatically and then rose again by as much as 10 degrees centigrade over a period of 50 years, while during the Middle Ages the temperature of the earth was higher than it is today. Abandoning attempts to prevent climate change would save the West from bankruptcy and release a large amount of money for defence and would even enable us to buy some frigates, which would please the noble Lord, Lord West.

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, the question of climate change and defence resilience is increasingly at the heart of what we are doing. The UK’s ability to understand the impact of climate change across defence and to adapt to it will be key to gaining strategic advantage.

[Lord Browne of Ladyton (Lab)]

My Lords, I shall ask the Minister a question that is within his brief. The respected Institute for Economics and Peace has identified 27 countries with over 700 million people who already face catastrophic ecological threats but at the same time have the lowest levels of societal resilience. This is a recipe for conflict. The list includes countries where we are likely to deploy our Armed Forces and other humanitarian and emergency responders if requested so to do. The Minister and I have had cause to discuss the complications and consequences of the manifestation of an unanticipated risk that caused the accidental death of a member of our armed services deployed with our allies in a foreign jurisdiction in a post-conflict environment. With that in mind, since we have identified the countries where we will need them, should we not be working on appropriate and comprehensive status of forces agreements now in anticipation of this situation arising again?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, I entirely agree with the noble Lord. However, I make two points. First, we will not and cannot compromise military capability solely for a sustainable solution. A key principle here is to safeguard the national defence, and that is paramount. Secondly, having said that, the UK is world-leading in this area, and we should be proud of our Armed Forces’ efforts to gain an edge on the threats and challenges posed by climate change. Each service is making significant improvements.

[Baroness Stuart of Edgbaston (CB)]

My Lords, I refer to my entry in the register of interests as an honorary captain in the Royal Navy. While education is very important, even more important is capacity. HMS “Protector” is currently our only icebreaker. Last week it returned from Operation Austral in the Antarctic, where it was delivering supplies, carrying out hydrographic surveys and improving the safety of naval passage. I urge the Minister to build on that capacity and, as we train the Royal Navy, to draw on the experience that HMS “Protector” and the teams have gained over the last few years.

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, I thank the noble Baroness for that extremely valid point. She is right that we need to learn from our experience. The Navy in particular is building in adaptability to all future platforms to ensure flexibility of fuel sources and all energy-efficient technologies wherever possible.

[Lord Coaker (Lab)]

My Lords, following on from the noble Baroness’s question, Lieutenant General Richard Nugee warned that global warming may affect the Royal Navy’s technical capabilities. He warned that rising sea temperatures might make it difficult for ships to cool their engines as they rely on cold seawater. It would be helpful if the Minister could provide an update on what assessment has been made by the Ministry of Defence of the impact that rising sea temperatures have had or could have on the technical efficacy of Royal Navy ships.

--- Later in debate ---

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

Again, that is an extremely valid point. The MoD has just held its first climate security wargame across government, with international representation, and it was the MoD that led it. It is now assessing the outcomes and the lessons learned. Things such as rising sea temperatures and land temperatures are exactly the sort of area that was being considered. This and future wargames will inform all operational planning and current and future military capabilities to ensure that defence understands how capabilities will perform and operate in these changing environments; that is, both physical and security environments.

[Earl Russell (LD)]

My Lords, climate change and its future impact will not only impede our ability to project force but will be a key driver of conflicts. Responding to climate breakdown disasters will become a regular reason for deployment. Does the Minister agree that arguing that the Royal Navy should not be prepared for climate change, as some have, is the modern equivalent of asking the Navy to work on the assumption that the earth is flat?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

That was a very nice allegory; I entirely agree. It is embedded in everything that all services, not just the Royal Navy, undertake. This is to ensure that what is inevitable—the climate change we are facing within the next relatively short period of time—is completely planned and catered for. As I said, that will give us a strategic advantage.

[Lord Dannatt (CB)]

My Lords, I think we can all agree that the main purpose of the Question is to express our concerns about the health of our planet. However, I will extend that to say that I am concerned about the health—as the noble Lord, Lord West, will be pleased to know—of the Royal Navy. Will the Minister comment on His Majesty’s Government’s view of the former Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s statement yesterday that the economy should be put on a war footing, not just to grow the economy, but to grow the size of the defence budget from 2.5% to 3% in the interests of the Royal Navy, the Army and the Royal Air Force?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, I am increasingly thinking this is rather like Groundhog Day. I entirely agree, but the words “war footing” are slightly alarmist. There is no doubt that we are in a considerably more unstable environment and that we need to invest in industrial capacity to rebuild our stockpiles and re-equip all our forces. As I said the other day, we have 22 ships and submarines on order. We have 1,200 armoured vehicles currently on order. The RAF has its greatest lift capacity since the Second World War. The new Chinooks announced yesterday by the Secretary of State are extremely good news.

[Baroness Bennett of Manor Castle (GP)]

My Lords, grounded in the reality of 2024 and the climate emergency, Britain faces greatly increased risks and the reality of floods, droughts, fires, and heat affecting public health. The independent Climate Change Committee said yesterday that the third national adaptation programme was wholly inadequate. Given that there will be increasing demands for military aid for civilian authorities—known as MACA—what extra training and provision are happening within the Navy? With areas such as floods, the Navy should have the capacity to help.

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, there are training programmes in all three forces, and the whole question of climate change and the changing environment we will have to face is deeply embedded in that. However, I confirm that we will not compromise on military capabilities solely for some form of sustainable solution. Our job in the Ministry of Defence is to ensure and safeguard the national defence.

Red Sea Telecommunication Cables

Earl of Minto Excerpts

Thursday 14th March 2024 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Rawlings]

To ask His Majesty’s Government what support they are providing to help protect telecommunication cables in the Red Sea.

[The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (The Earl of Minto) (Con)]

My Lords, the Government take the security of the UK’s critical national infrastructure extremely seriously. We are working closely with private commercial interests to better understand the ongoing situation in the Red Sea and the resilience of telecoms networks. In recent months, Defence has acted decisively to protect international shipping in the Red Sea from the Houthi’s dangerous and illegal attacks, while continuing to apply diplomatic pressure.

[Baroness Rawlings (Con)]

My Lords, I thank my noble friend for his Answer. The Red Sea is particularly vulnerable to attack because of its narrow and shallow proximity to Iran’s naval bases. Digital data is not in the cloud but depends 97% on seabed cables, and trillions get transferred yearly. Unlike ships, there are no flags, and they are not legally registered to any country. They are easily cut, causing major disruption in the world. Their location is freely available, with scope for plausible deniability. Does the Minister agree that there have been two very good reports, one by our Prime Minister in 2017 and one this year, stressing that China, with its undersea great wall, and Russia, with its sensors and unmanned vehicles, pose a severe threat? What is the UK’s strategic doctrine guiding our seabed policy? With Russia’s aggressive behaviour in the European Atlantic, what is the UK doing to support NATO’s defence system?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, I will cut to the chase. We take all this extremely seriously, but it is important to contextualise the risk. The most likely cause by far of damage to subsea cables comes from accidental damage by industrial fishing and shipping and from underwater geological events. That is not to say that undersea cables are not prone to attack but it is extremely rare, and the commercial organisations can divert very quickly to alternative routes. Having said that, the Ministry of Defence has capabilities to monitor the seabed and has invested in a multi-role ocean surveillance programme which enhances our joint intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance capability. We work collegiately with allies, including NATO, to ensure that subsea infrastructure is resilient.

[Baroness Smith of Newnham (LD)]

My Lords, one issue is clearly the cutting of cables. The other is cyberattacks on undersea cables. What is the MoD’s position on that, and do we have adequate resilience?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, the question of resilience is one of ongoing technological change. However, through maritime domain awareness, which is a critical part of our maritime defence and is more specifically about the UK’s national waters rather than international waters, we collect an enormous amount of data to provide accurate information through surveillance software, coastal radars, aviation operations, space-based reconnaissance and government vessels. We get an enormous amount of data. Resilience is something which we consistently and constantly work on.

[Lord Stirrup (CB)]

The Minister has said that physical attacks on undersea infrastructure are very rare, and this is true at the moment, but it is unlikely to be true in a period of heightened tension and approaching conflict. It is not just the Red Sea. Our undersea connections for communications and power supplies, such as for gas and oil with Norway, are extensive and are growing ever greater in the Arctic. The Minister mentioned some of the capabilities that the UK military has to defend them, but they are very few and far between. Given the proliferation of this entirely new and very challenging threat, is Grant Shapps not absolutely right to call for an increase in the defence budget to 3% of GDP?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, nobody would be surprised to know that, yes, I think Grant Shapps is absolutely right.

[Lord Reid of Cardowan (Lab)]

My Lords, in the absence of my noble friend Lord West, I ask: what naval assets do we have to protect the underwater cables?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, our naval assets are substantial. In fact, there are new support ships coming in that have the specific capability of underwater surveillance, so it is well on the way.

[Lord Lancaster of Kimbolton (Con)]

My Lords, I will add some specifics to that. RFA “Proteus” is our multi-role oceanographic survey ship. Interestingly, its purchase was announced by Ben Wallace in November 2022 and it was in service less than one year later, which is really quite impressive. Will my noble friend say what the lessons of the speed of that procurement are and whether it is our intention to purchase any further vessels in future?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, the speed of that acquisition is a fantastic example of how when procurement goes right, the agility and ability to acquire, equip and train crews to man these sorts of vehicles is comfortably within our capability. I do not know precisely when the next ship is due to come, and I will write to my noble friend with that information.

[Lord Coaker (Lab)]

What assessment have the Government made of the impacts of the cuts to these telecommunications cables on the telecommunications traffic from Asia to Europe or whatever? What are they going to do specifically to protect the workers needed to fix those cables?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

The noble Lord makes a good point. On the whole, the cables themselves are not fixed but replaced. It is too dangerous and time-consuming to replace them because of the depth they are at and the danger from shipping. These are commercial decisions, and there are commercial sensitivities that we really cannot go into. Suffice it to say that we are acutely aware of what the risk might be in this area.

[Lord Teverson (LD)]

For UK data security, the rather unglamorous solution is the proliferation of these cables, which to a degree is already naturally happening commercially. Where there is real vulnerability is at landing sites, where there is a concentration of these cables. We need to diversify those landing sites on this side of the Atlantic. Does the Minister agree? If so, what action are the Government taking to make sure that takes place?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

The noble Lord is right that proliferation is an issue. As has been mentioned, the amount of data that travels through these cables is so significant that it requires all the protection it can get. The question of landing sites is very much part of the overall security resilience that we have been talking about. I can only imagine that they are going to become more and more important as we continue to suffer such an unstable global situation.

[Lord Craig of Radley (CB)]

My Lords, the Minister mentioned the Houthis. What assessment have the Government made of the ability of the Houthis to replace the weapons they have used or those that have been destroyed by Royal Air Force and other allied attacks? It is important to know whether the Houthis will be able to continue the sorts of attacks that they started some months ago.

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

The noble and gallant Lord is right. The Government’s approach to addressing the issue of the Houthis has not really changed. It is all about increasing diplomatic engagement, ending the illegal flow of arms—I think we are all fully in support of that—cutting off the financial resources of the Houthis and helping the people of Yemen, who need support.

[Lord Bellingham (Con)]

My Lords, the Minister mentioned diplomacy. Surely this brings into sharp focus the need for a robust and sustainable peace process. Obviously military action is part of what is needed, but can he give us an update on how the peace process is going at the moment and what role the UK is playing?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, that is not strictly within my brief. However, I am fully aware that my noble friend the Foreign Secretary and my noble friend Lord Ahmad have recently met the relevant parties, and the importance of the peace process could not be emphasised more.

UK Armed Forces

Earl of Minto Excerpts

Tuesday 12th March 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Coaker (Lab)]

My Lords, how will the state of the UK Armed Forces be helped by the cuts to defence spending announced in the Budget? Table 2.1 in the Red Book shows defence resource spending cut from £35 billion in 2023-24 to £32.8 billion in 2024-25, and table 2.2 shows defence capital spending cut from £19.2 billion in 2023-34 to £18.9 billion in 2024-25. How on earth does that defence spending cut help the state of our Armed Forces?

[The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (The Earl of Minto) (Con)]

My Lords, I will say something about the Armed Forces to start off with. Our Armed Forces are, at all times, ready to protect and defend the UK. We continue to meet all operational commitments, including supporting Ukraine in the face of Putin’s illegal and unjust invasion and tackling Houthi aggression in the Red Sea. The Royal Navy contributes 25% of NATO’s maritime strength, which has four times as many ships and three times as many submarines as Russia. The RAF has greater lift capacity than at any time since the Second World War. The Army was globally deployed in 67 countries last year, with 14,000 troops deployed on exercises and operations across Europe. We are rightly proud of all their efforts.

On the money side, I have gone into this in quite some detail, and it is the difference between budget and outturn. Budget is a figure struck at the beginning of the financial year, and outturn is what actually gets spent by the end of the financial year. In 2023-24, the budget was £51.4 billion and the outturn was £54.2 billion. This year, the budget is £51.7 billion and the outturn is £55.6 billion—a 1.8% increase of £1.4 billion.

[Lord Stirrup (CB)]

My Lords, yesterday in another place a Conservative Member suggested to the Minister for Defence Procurement that the timing of the 2.5% target should be determined by the level of threat rather than as economic conditions allow. In response to this entirely rational and pretty obvious proposition, the Minister replied:

“I do not think that we can commit to levels of public expenditure … without being confident that the economy can support them in a prudent fashion”.—[Official Report, Commons, 11/3/24; col. 25.]


Does the Minister really think that giving fiscal considerations priority over the scale and immediacy of the threat to this nation’s security can be characterised as any kind of prudence?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, as I have said before, and I can do no more than say again, we are faced with a lot of conflicting needs and requirements from all the different departments of Government. Looking at the level of defence spending, we are spending more in financial terms than we have ever spent before—the highest level in history—and it is increasing in real terms. It is not where we would like it to be, and I think the Prime Minister has made clear the direction of travel in which he wishes it to go.

[Lord Lee of Trafford (LD)]

My Lords, to say that defence expenditure will be increased to 2.5% “when economic conditions allow”, when Russia and China are massively increasing their defence expenditure and when the world is a tinder-box at the present time, is frankly totally unacceptable and a complete dereliction of national responsibility. How does the Minister react to the recent PAC report that only two of the MoD’s 46 equipment programmes are rated highly likely to be delivered on time, on budget and of high-enough quality? How does the MoD justify employing 60,000 civilians—virtually the same number as over the last five years? What do they all do, when the Army itself is only about 70,000?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, there were a lot of questions there. On the question of the contracts, the DE&S is actually overseeing 2,600 different contracts across 550 different programmes, delivering, believe it or not, 98% of key user requirements. It achieves 90% of the strategic milestones and, contrary to public perception, and indeed to perception within this House, it delivers well to budget.

[Lord Robathan (Con)]

My Lords, my noble friend is making a good fist of defending a frankly indefensible brief. He and I both served together in the Cold War —a long half-century ago—but there is now a hot war in Europe. It is taking place as we speak, hundreds of thousands of people are being killed, and it is against the same opponent. As the noble Lord, Lord Lee, has just said—and I hate to agree with the Liberal Democrats —we cannot say that we will set out our long-term aspiration to increase defence spending “when fiscal and economic circumstances allow”. It is now; we must spend money now before the whole of European prosperity and our prosperity are destroyed.

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, I can do no more than take that message back, and take the tone of the House back, to the Secretary of State. He will not be surprised, but I will certainly undertake to do that.

[Lord Browne of Ladyton (Lab)]

My Lords, the Minister will remember that, last year, a senior US general remarked that the British Army was no longer regarded as a top-level fighting force. Some short time thereafter—I cannot remember exactly when it was—at Defence Questions, the then chair of the Defence Select Committee invited the Secretary of State to comment on these remarks as he said they tallied with his committee’s own findings that the conflict in Ukraine had exposed serious shortfalls in the war-fighting capability of the British Army. I have no way of judging whether any of that is correct, but what interested me was the Minister’s response. The Minister, Mr Heappey, responded that

“underinvestment in the Army … has led to the point where the Army is in urgent need of recapitalisation”.

That was the word he used: “recapitalisation”. He went on to say:

“The Chancellor and Prime Minister get that, and there is a Budget coming”.—[Official Report, Commons, 30/1/23; col. 5.]


We have now had two Budgets. There was no recapitalisation in the first. There certainly was no recapitalisation, for the reasons that my noble friend pointed out, in the second. So, when is this recapitalisation going to happen? This, out of the mouths of Ministers, is in direct contrast to the description the Minister gives this House. Why is that?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, one can look at the recapitalisation—and I understand it is a very strong word—and the environment we find ourselves in at the moment. Let us think about the orders we have placed at the moment. There are 22 ships and submarines either on order or under construction, and I have seen some of them; we have got 1,200 armoured vehicles on order; we support, in this country, over 400,000 jobs across the union. We spend £25 billion with the UK defence industry, including £5.5 billion on shipbuilding and repair, close to £2 billion on aircraft and spacecraft, and over £2 billion on weapons and ammunition. We continue to support the defence industry and our Armed Forces as best we can. On the absolute amount of money, I completely understand the level of concern.

[The Earl of Effingham (Con)]

My Lords, the Army, the Navy and the Air Force offer amazing opportunities, but our Armed Forces’ numbers have been shrinking. We saw the largest number of applications to the Royal Navy in eight years during January, but one swallow does not make a summer. We need a proactive, long-term strategy, aside from pay and accommodation, to drive future recruitment. I ask the Minister, what is that strategy?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, as I have said before, modern war fighting is as much about capability as numbers. Having said that, much is currently being undertaken to improve and retain force numbers. Between, for instance, June 2021 and June 2022, the Army had 53,000 applications. In the same period last year, we had 69,000 applications. So we are moving in the right direction. We are easing the process of joining, and indeed or rejoining. Pay, conditions, accommodation, childcare—all this sort of stuff—are extremely important. It was in my day and I am sure it is now. We are also introducing a new, single, streamlined recruitment programme which is cross-service and which is about to be awarded this year. We hope it will come into operation by the beginning of 2027. So, I take my noble friend’s point that joining the forces is a great career opportunity and it should always remain so.

809 Naval Air Squadron

Earl of Minto Excerpts

Monday 11th March 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord West of Spithead]

To ask His Majesty’s Government when they plan on 809 Naval Air Squadron being fully operational with a full complement of aircraft.

[The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (The Earl of Minto) (Con)]

My Lords, 809 Naval Air Squadron has been stood up as a joint Royal Navy and RAF front-line F35B Lightning squadron. The squadron’s force growth, strength and capabilities will continue to increase throughout this and next year. This will enable the first operational deployment of the squadron as planned as part of the carrier strike group 2025 air group.

[Lord West of Spithead (Lab)]

My Lords, it is absolutely extraordinary in this highly volatile and dangerous world, as recognised by a number of senior people in government, that there was no extra money for defence in the Budget. It is very difficult to understand. Symptomatic of that blindness to defence spending is the length of time that it has taken to build up the air groups for carrier strike, which are well behind time. It illustrates a peacetime mindset but, I am afraid, we are now in a world where one cannot have a peacetime mindset. The disgraceful issue over pilot training and the slow rate of delivery of airframes could have been overcome if we had approached it in the right way. I think the Minister understands the shortage of cash for defence, although he cannot say much sitting on the Front Bench. Can he confirm that, when 809 and 617 deploy under the deployment plan in 2025—it was announced by the Prime Minister and the Secretary of State for Defence in Japan—there will be 12 aircraft from each squadron on board the ship?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, the noble Lord makes a very good point about additional funds for defence; I think we are all in the same area on this. The problem is that resources are finite. There are strong arguments in all sorts of different directions. The Prime Minister has given a clear indication to reach 2.5%; it looks as though this year will end up at about 2.3%. As far as the two squadrons are concerned, the answer is yes: there will be up to 12 aircraft in each squadron by the time the carrier force is ready to go.

[Lord Soames of Fletching (Con)]

My Lords, will my noble friend confirm that there will be, and is, a pipeline of training sufficient for the pilots of both the Royal Air Force and the Fleet Air Arm to cover these mythical beasts?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, the training programme is in line with the build-up of aircraft. While it is not an easy thing to get right, the aircraft will certainly be capable of being manned.

[Lord Lee of Trafford (LD)]

My Lords, in 2022 the then Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace, told the International Relations and Defence Select Committee that the RAF training programme was “lacking” and

“not in the place I would like it to be”.

Apparently, at that stage we had only 30 British pilots who could fly the F35s. Has the situation improved? How many pilots have we got at present who can fly the F35s? Can he also please tell us what aircraft are currently deployed in the Falklands?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, on the number of pilots going through training, as I have said, the Lightning Force continues to grow its pilot numbers and graduate additional pilots in the operational conversion unit in line with the planned force growth. The pilots are in training. I will write to the noble Lord and let him know exactly how many pilots we have available at the moment. His second question was about the Falklands. My understanding is that there are four Typhoon FGR4s based in the Falklands and a Voyager tanker based at Mount Pleasant in the South Atlantic.

[Lord Trefgarne (Con)]

My Lords, can my noble friend confirm that naval forces are being deployed urgently to the eastern Mediterranean to protect the cargo ships taking the urgently needed food supplies from Cyprus to Gaza?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, I understand that this is the case. Sometimes I think we forget just how incredibly amenable and spread our forces are. We have 22 ships and submarines on order or under construction. The Army is globally deployed across 67 countries, with 14,000 troops on exercises and operations throughout Europe. We certainly fulfil all our role as part of NATO and in the safety of security of this country. We also involve ourselves in issues such as combating the Houthi rebels and the other issues we are facing around the world.

[Lord Reid of Cardowan (Lab)]

My Lords, could the Minister have another try at answering the question from my noble friend Lord West? He asked if the Minister could confirm that both squadrons will have 12 aircraft. If I heard the Minister correctly, he said that there would be “up to” 12, which of course could mean two. Could he give a straight answer to my noble friend?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

The noble Lord is quite right; I did say up to 12. The whole point of this is that the forces we have need to be flexible and interchangeable. By the end of 2025, we will have two squadrons in full operation. We will have 48 aircraft by the end of 2025, and I am assured that there will be up to 12 aircraft in each squadron which are capable at any one time. I am absolutely certain that there will be a lot more than two in each.

[Lord Empey (UUP)]

My Lords, is my noble friend happy that we have chosen a situation where there is only one aircraft in the world that can fly off our carriers? It is a very expensive aircraft which is in short supply. Is it not inevitable that we will have to modify these aircraft carriers so that they can fly off catapult-launched aircraft?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, the noble Lord has greater knowledge than I have in this area. As far as the Lightning is concerned, we are fully committed to the 138, as we originally set out. We will have 48 by the end of 2025 and another 27 by the early 2030s. As far as flexibility on the aircraft is concerned, I shall have to find out the full detail and write.

[Baroness Anderson of Stoke-on-Trent (Lab)]

I remind the House of my registered interests, specifically my roles with the Royal Navy. Last year, the Defence Select Committee in the other place highlighted that the proposed cuts to the F35B and Typhoon fleets, as outlined in the defence Command Paper, would significantly undermine our ability to exert combat mass in conflict. What risk analysis has the MoD undertaken to assess the value of high-capability platforms versus airframe mass in peer-to-peer conflict? Where is the balance between sovereign capability and sovereign mass?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, the noble Baroness asked a very detailed question. The key is that, as the threat changes, we need to change the capability to meet it. We work on very long lead times. All these aircraft are extremely complicated and need to be adjusted to meet the particular threat as it comes through. Through the relationship with Lockheed Martin and the Joint Program Office, we are trying to understand what the delay on some of the deliveries is. However, we do not currently anticipate a shortfall in the ability to build the UK Lightning Force to full operational capability by the end of 2025.

[Earl Attlee (Con)]

My Lords, what is the point of having all the platforms that my noble friend the Minister referred to if we cannot improve the terms and conditions of service for the ratings, to retain them so that they can man the platforms?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My noble friend makes a very good point. I think we addressed this last week or the week before. An enormous amount of work is being undertaken on the question of recruitment and, particularly, retention, to ensure that the terms and conditions of employment within His Majesty’s Armed Forces are fit for purpose.

Defence Acquisition Reform

Earl of Minto Excerpts

Thursday 7th March 2024 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Smith of Newnham (LD)]

My Lords, “over-complex, over-budget and over-time” is how major programmes of defence procurement have been characterised not just by the opposition, our enemies or even our allies but by the Minister for Defence Procurement in giving this Statement in the other place. Defence procurement has, over years, been riddled with problems, as the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, pointed out. While this Statement is very welcome, there is a question about whether it goes far enough or thinks about the wider pattern of defence procurement.

I read the Statement as it was produced and put into the Printed Paper Office last week. It said, “Check against delivery”. I read it, and there were various points where I thought, “Surely no Minister actually said this”. I went back and looked at Hansard to see what the Minister for Defence Procurement said in the other place and, indeed, some of the slightly strange comments were made in the House of Commons. I will therefore ask a few very specific questions.

What we have as the fifth aspect of the new approach to procurement is:

“Fifthly, we will pursue spiral development by default”.


Other noble Lords might know what spiral development is, but I am afraid that I do not. The Statement did not give me much clarity on it, nor does the document that was produced to go alongside it, so I hope the Minister can explain a little more what spiral development means.

Even more, however, I would like to know what is meant by the next line:

“seeking 60% to 80% of the possible, rather than striving for perfection”.

I realise that there have been concerns about the fact that we have looked for exquisite solutions and platforms that are so highly specified that they become ever more complicated, with the timeline for procurement shifting ever further to the right. However, “60% of the possible” raises a lot of questions. Does it mean that only 60% of our ammunition is going to work, or that only 60% of our trials of Trident will work? Given that we seem to have had a couple of problems with Trident recently, I very much hope that the Minister can explain what this means. There is nothing in the Statement or the document that explains clearly that we do not want to spend so long over-specifying things that we never deliver the platforms or equipment that our Armed Forces need. Do we think that we need to specify less? What do the Government mean?

The Statement talks about learning the lessons of experience, which is clearly very welcome. We do not want another Ajax. Learning from that experience is highly welcome and I am sure the Minister would be very grateful not to have to face the situation that his predecessor, the noble Baroness, Lady Goldie, did, of repeatedly coming to your Lordships’ House and having to answer questions about Ajax for which, frankly, there were not any good answers.

Do the Government think that just learning the lessons of the recent past is enough? Will that deliver, at pace, as we say we need, the defence equipment that the United Kingdom needs in an era of unprecedented challenges? Will the noble Earl, in his response, tell the House how far this procurement model will really help us deliver beyond what we have been seeing and help ensure that, if we are sticking at 2% of GDP on defence expenditure, which seems to be the case from the Budget, that we are actually going to be equipped at the level we need to be to face the challenges that we and our allies are facing, and send the messages that we need to be sending to Russia, China, Iran and other countries, some of which we certainly would not think of even as collaborators in international relations?

[The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (The Earl of Minto) (Con)]

My Lords I thank the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, and the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, for their questions and their very well-made points. The whole point of this paper is to look forward, not to the past. I think there is a full acceptance on all sides of the House that we can agree on the need to reform our acquisition processes, because they are rooted in the past, not in the current; and of course they ought to be rooted in the future.

As mentioned by my honourable friend the Minister for Defence Procurement in the other place,

“the long-standing weaknesses … are well known”.—[Official Report, Commons, 28/2/24; col. 354.]

They include highly exquisite requirements—“exquisite” is his word—constrained export opportunities, vulnerable supply chains, personnel wary of speaking up when problems emerge, not to mention the overprogramming and unintended competitiveness between different parts of the organisation for finite funding. All these have to be addressed if we are going to move forwards.

I draw all noble Lords’ attention, if they have not already been made aware of it, to the publication placed in the Libraries of both Houses last week, Integrated Procurement Model: Driving Pace in the Delivery of Military Capability. Within that document, noble Lords will find the five core principles through which we will deliver acquisition reform. For the benefit of the House, these are as follows—some have already been mentioned.

A coherent, joined-up approach across the defence portfolio to break down the silo nature of procurement.

New checks and balances to challenge assumptions. Taking expert advice from the outset of projects, not half way through, when it is either too late or no longer appropriate.

Prioritising exportability. Far too much of what we have done has been tailor-made. We work in a global market now, where there are skills and abilities outside our shores, sitting with our allies, where we should not only take advantage of their industrial capability but also the sales opportunity that it presents to us.

Empowering industrial innovation through greater transparency and common endeavour. Transparency is so important in this ability to be honest about the situation as things progress. We need to be able to have the honesty to challenge each other the whole way through the process, to make certain that we do not disappear down blind alleys and that things are produced to time and to budget, when they ought to be, and that everybody feels open enough and relaxed enough to be able to challenge some of these issues.

Then there is the whole question of continuous improvement, or spiral development. Spiral development is a new term for me as well. I come from the private sector, where it is called “test and refine”. The principle is very simple. There is a point when you know that what you are doing is capable of achieving the aim. It is not perfect, but you test it, you use it, you learn and you refine it. You can also refine it for other customers as well: you have the base model, it works well, you can test it and then start to develop it in various different directions, to do various different things that you might want, but also what any potential customer might want. It does make perfect sense, I must admit.

Before turning to the questions quite rightly raised, and some of the challenges, I will look at the way procurement has been taking place. Let us be in no doubt, these are extremely complex pieces of technology and equipment, and they do take a long time to bring to fruition—particularly some of the larger ships and aircraft, as I am sure noble Lords are fully aware. It is a long gestation process, where checks and balances need to be inserted at the right place. But it appears to me, looking from the outside, that the process is well overdue an update, and that it needs to be much nimbler, quicker, more open, more collaborative, more informed, more technologically advanced, more digitally enhanced—you name it. There is such opportunity here.

Will it work? Well, it has certainly made a good start. I will mention just a few things about where we have got to. We already have some initiatives under way, and they are starting to improve things. We are starting to drive pace; risk and complexity are being looked at; senior responsible owners and their teams are much more focused; the strategic alignment is getting better; and the capacity and capability of the professionals involved and the SROs is improving. Psychological safety—this idea of being open and honest with each other and having a non-blame culture, which I do not think we have had in the past—pan-defence category management and financial savings: all these things come down to capability having to be holistic. To have an effective operation and delivery across organisational boundaries, you have to have a holistic view.

I will now address some of the questions. The question of value for money, as raised by the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, which I am sure everybody is aware of, is a question of budgeting and taking a sensible approach, being up front about the budget and making certain that the opportunities and contingencies within the budget are transparent. That is very much the case.

On the question of underlying mismanagement, there are various plans in place within the organisations to ensure greater accountability, less project management and more specific accountability for specific parts of work, which makes the whole ownership that much easier and more driven on a private sector opportunity basis.

I think I have addressed the questions of analysis and accountability in speaking on the empowering of individuals. Will this work? Like everything, it is never going to work from day one, but it is a real move in the right direction. It is the current way that large industrial organisations work now, and the ability to insert SMEs in the process the whole way along is absolutely critical. If one thinks about technology and digital in particular, it is often SMEs that come up with the good ideas. They need to be inserted within the business and supported right the way through so that—I hardly dare say this—the primes do not gobble them up and sometimes destroy their nimbleness. So, this is the right thing to do. The question of co-operation with NATO and other allies is, equally, extremely well made.

The noble Baroness mentioned spiral development. It is a strange concept to be described like that, but I completely understand that it is “test and refine”. You get to a certain level, which is 60% to 80% of where you want to end up; you feel confident enough that you can actually put it out into the live environment, in the clear knowledge that you are going to get it back to make it better once it has been used and other people have seen its breadth of opportunity.

On the question of overcomplication, it is a difficult matter. We are dealing with very complicated machinery and skills, and everything we have learned in the past couple of years suggests that things do not need to be overcomplicated; they just need to work, and we need to be able to produce them at pace and in volume.

On Ajax, the Sheldon review has addressed this, I hope. Without making silly jokes about it being back on the road, the lessons really have been learned on Ajax—luckily, it is a thing from the past. We do learn from the lessons of the past, and procurement, if it is properly addressed, is about learning from experience, or enhancing and living with the concept of change. I hope that the challenges that we have seen have been addressed by what I think is a an extremely sensible and practical way forward for the very complicated and broad-ranging challenge of military procurement for a nation state. We could not take it more seriously; I certainly undertake to keep noble Lords fully up to date with all progress as we start to introduce some of the main milestones that will come up within the next two to three years.

[Lord West of Spithead (Lab)]

My Lords, war is raging in Europe, the Levant, the southern Red Sea and Sudan. We are in the most dangerous and hostile world we have been in for many years and, amazingly, the Government have not increased or provided any extra spending for defence in yesterday’s Budget. State-on-state warfare is back. Does the Minister agree that, in terms of procurement, we must look much longer-term? For example, the carriers had £1.5 billion added to their cost because, to get the funding line straight in MoD, they stopped work on them for two years—a ridiculous thing to do. Equally, we are now desperately trying to get enough frigates into our Navy because we took too long ordering them. The SMEs have a real problem. We need to have a drumbeat of orders looking to the future, which we should commit to, because we now know that we are in a world where there is state-on-state warfare. More importantly, does the noble Earl agree that that will provide some resilience, so that, for example, when we start giving ammunition stocks or whatever to people, the firms involved have built into their whole organisation a structure that enables them to be replaced?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

I agree with almost everything that the noble Lord said. Certainly, the immediacy of the situation has already introduced into the procurement cycle within the Ministry of Defence a much more nimble way of acquiring the needed munitions, both for gifting and for our own stockpiles. We have started to invest substantial sums of money in the industrial base. If you think about this way of proceeding, it is very much a joint relationship with the industrial manufacturers that will deliver exactly what we want here, as far as both the primes and the SMEs are concerned. It is being driven by the current situation and the rate of technological advance.

[Lord Arbuthnot of Edrom (Con)]

My Lords, I declare my interests as set out in the register. It is nearly 30 years since I became the Minister for Defence Procurement, so ably succeeded by the noble Lord, Lord Bach, who I see in his place—and the questions do not change. New threats arise as old threats remain, and sometimes get worse. Our dependence on technology is greater now than it ever has been; therefore, our vulnerability is greater now than it ever has been. I welcome what my noble friend says about a more joined-up approach across the defence sector, but does he not agree that it has to be married with a more joined-up approach across the infrastructure sector as a whole, because of that very vulnerability?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, I agree. The Americans have a very good expression: “soup to nuts”. It is a very simple way of describing any project from one end right to the other. I believe that is precisely what my friend in the other place is trying to achieve here, in coming up with a considerably more flexible and nimble approach to the threats that we currently face.

[Lord Deben (Con)]

Could my noble friend go back to number two of his five principles? It seems to me that in the private sector, we have a very large number of these problems as far as procurement is concerned. There are many places where great strides have been made. It has always been thought that the forces are not always willing to accept, with a degree of openness, advice from the private sector—not just in the single programme, but overall. Can my noble friend reassure the House that this is really going to change, and that people understand that there are aspects of procurement which are not just about how you do this very difficult technical kind of procurement, but which really can be learned from other people?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, I entirely agree with my noble friend. There is no doubt that the private sector and the Ministry of Defence need to work much more closely together to ensure that the absolutely current technology is not only available but able to be developed, and that the working practices and checks and balances on some of the assumptions that have been made are tested properly within the wider concept, not just within the forces network. This is incredibly important. If there is to be a joined-up approach and a proper pan-defence affordability exercise at the outset, it almost demands engagement across a much wider base than previously.

Military National Service

Earl of Minto Excerpts

Thursday 7th March 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Naseby (Con)]

My Lords, in begging leave to ask the Question standing in my name on the Order Paper, I declare an interest in that 67 years ago this month I was awarded RAF Wings to fly jets in defence of my country.

[The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (The Earl of Minto) (Con)]

My Lords, the Government have no plans to reintroduce national service or any form of conscription. Since 1963 it has been the policy of successive Governments that the best way of providing for the defence of our country is by maintaining professional Armed Forces staffed by volunteers. The demanding nature of defence today is such that we require highly trained, professional men and women in our regular and reserve Armed Forces who are fully committed to giving their best in defending our country and its allies.

[Lord Naseby (Con)]

I am grateful to my noble friend for his clear Answer, but many of us feel that at this point in time the warning signals are flashing red. In my conversations with our young people, particularly my grandchildren, there is a willingness to consider some form of training, either of a military reserve nature or possibly even of a national service nature. I took my oath in the other place 50 years ago today to serve the country. I believe our young people want to serve our country. Is my noble friend aware that as far as NATO is concerned, we are one of only two countries that have nothing in the way of training our young people in the challenges that arise in today’s world?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, my noble friend makes some very good points, a number of which we can all relate to. The Armed Forces continue to meet all their current commitments, keeping the country and its interests safe. The Government remain committed to ensuring that this country has the world-class Armed Forces that it needs, deserves and has held in high reputation across the globe. We can rightly be very proud of our forces.

[Lord Tunnicliffe (Lab)]

My Lords, I really hope that the Minister’s Answer is not accurate. We know that there is a serious risk—not a probable risk but a serious risk—of a ground war breaking out in Europe, and we may become involved in it. This is being said by serious people such as generals, Mr Shapps and so on. Surely the military would be derelict in its duties if it was not considering that risk. Ukraine has shown that modern warfare, once again, is people-intense. The numbers in our Armed Forces are something like half what they were at the end of the Cold War. Surely the military is developing multiple scenarios, almost certainly short of conscription, to make sure that a rapid increase in resources can be achieved.

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, the noble Lord makes some very good points but, as I have said before, increasingly it is about capability rather than pure numbers. We are facing some widely known recruitment issues that are not peculiar to the forces or to the country and that are giving us a bit of a challenge, but while we have smaller forces than previously we are applying all sorts of issues to attract and retain forces across all three services.

[Lord Fowler (CB)]

My Lords, the noble Lord asks for consideration of

“a form of military national service”.

As one of the last national servicemen in the 1950s, I think he is wise to put it that way. I have no personal complaints, but I observe that not everyone had happy memories of this period. Otherwise, you would not have had conscripts keeping lists of days and hours left to do, and the most popular recording on British forces radio in Germany for those nearing discharge would not have been “Happy Days Are Here Again”. I agree with the noble Lord that there is a strong case for looking at this again, but if we do I hope we will find something better than the 1950s model.

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

I cannot disagree with the noble Lord, but we have to rely on the fact that all three forces have a global reputation and are professional, highly trained and the envy of many. To dilute them with unwilling recruits, to a certain degree, can lead only to a slight dilution of that reputation.

[Baroness Smith of Newnham (LD)]

My Lords, on these Benches I will not call for military service to be reintroduced, but we are hearing from across the Chamber that this country and His Majesty’s Government need to prepare for a different security context from the one we have enjoyed for the last 30 years. Can the Minister tell the House what plans His Majesty’s Government are making to reinforce the services, including increasing the numbers of reserves and making sure our that recruitment deficit is overcome?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, the way we address the threat is a constantly changing situation. Whether through procurement or through individual members of the forces, there is a constant ratio of training, retraining and readdressing the threat. I really believe that we have the right quality of forces in place. We know that we do not have as many as we had planned, and there are some prevalent recruitment issues. Encouragingly, applications have been well up in the last few months. We had more than 10,000 applications for regular soldiers in January; there were 53,000 applications in the period from June 2021 to 2022 and just shy of 70,000 from June 2022 to 2023.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

On those words, professional, regular and reserve, my understanding is that for some years now we have been vigorously building up our whole reserve—what used to be called the territorials—including a number of combat units trained to semi-professional standards and readiness. Is that process increasing? Is it reinforcing the number of troops we really have available? Are we following some of the patterns that the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, and the noble Lord, Lord Fowler, hinted at?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, we are. The current mix that we have in the Army is about 70,000 ground troops and about 30,000 reserves. The 100,000 target is where we are focused at the moment. The full size of the forces, currently at about 131,000, is an issue. The outflow is also an issue, as everybody is aware, and we are taking action to improve retention.

[Lord Stirrup (CB)]

My Lords, I agree entirely with the Minister’s remarks about conscription. One area where the Government could do more is in support for the cadet organisations. Although it is certainly not a recruiting arm of the military, the Air Cadet organisation already offers challenge, excitement, adventure and a sense of service to more than 43,000 young people from all backgrounds and communities across the UK. Can the Government ensure that they not only support this organisation in its current work but do their best to expand it?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, I entirely agree. In a past life, I had something to do with cadets and I also trained Junior Leaders soldiers. There is no doubt that the success of those particular intakes into the Armed Forces pays dividends time and again.

[Lord Snape (Lab)]

My Lords although I cannot possibly match the glamorous nature of the questioner’s service, when I joined the British Army 60 years ago in the hope of being able to drive steam locomotives on the Longmoor Military Railway, the recruiting sergeant in my hometown of Stockport offered to swear me in that same afternoon and send me on my way to the Royal Engineers depot the following morning. As I understand it, these matters of recruitment are now dealt with by a company called Capita, and I read that it takes nine to 12 months for each individual to join a regiment. Does the Minister agree that, by the time we had recruited a whole regiment of these reluctant conscripts, most of them would be too old to serve?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, the Government are doing all they can to speed up the process. The situation is improving, but the point is very well made. The sooner we can get enthusiastic men and women into the forces, the better.

AUKUS

Earl of Minto Excerpts

Thursday 29th February 2024 Grand Committee

[The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (The Earl of Minto) (Con)]

My Lords, I too am grateful to my noble friend Lord Risby for initiating this debate and to all noble Lords for their constructive and extremely thoughtful contributions. It is fair to say that I have never been asked more questions in such a short period, so I will be doing quite a lot of writing. However, I hope to pick them all up either now or through answering some of the more specific ones.

It is indeed two and a half years since we launched the AUKUS defence and security partnership to bolster global security alongside our equal American and Australian allies. Since then, the challenges to address have become more acute. Putin has brought war to Europe, tensions have heightened in the Indo-Pacific, and terrorism and violence have been unleashed in the Middle East. Military coups have toppled Governments across the Sahel and the Houthis are holding global trade hostage in the Red Sea. Each of these global security setbacks magnifies the need to advance our military capabilities through partnerships such as AUKUS. This is about much more than building the next generation of submarines and other capabilities. It is also about establishing a more sustainable industrial base and developing the skills for the future. With that in mind, I will provide an update on the progress we have made on the various AUKUS workstreams and I will try to address the questions raised by the noble Lords.

First, AUKUS pillar 1 is our commitment to help Australia develop a conventionally armed nuclear-powered submarine capability. Last March, AUKUS leaders announced that this new platform would be based on designs for the UK’s next-generation submarine that will replace our current Astute class. They will incorporate cutting-edge US technologies and will be the largest, most advanced and most powerful attack submarines ever operated by the Royal Navy. They will enhance our capability to operate in the north Atlantic and will further our objectives around the world. They will be built in Australia and the UK and will enter service with the Royal Navy in the late 2030s, and with the Royal Australian Navy in the late 2040s. This phased delivery will enable us to work together to build up the facilities, skills and experience needed for all partners to operate the vessels both safely and securely.

I was delighted to see the Australian high commissioner and his deputy earlier this week. We had a very positive, enthusiastic conversation about precisely this point on skills, training and experience. The opportunity of working ever more closely together on this critical task, developing joint skills and sustainable employment for decades to come across all three nations should be rightly celebrated, and that work is well under way.

The Government have committed an additional £5 billion up to 2025 to modernise the UK’s nuclear enterprise and fund the next phase of the AUKUS submarine programme. It is obviously very difficult, as the noble Lord, Lord Browne, rightly knows, to budget very accurately when we are talking about 2030, which is years ahead. However, the determination is there to ensure that the procurement process is both accurate and timely.

AUKUS partners BAE, Babcock and Rolls-Royce have already been awarded contracts worth £4 billion to procure long-lead components for the submarines. This will support thousands of highly skilled jobs in the UK, particularly in Barrow, where the UK’s submarines will be constructed, and at the Rolls-Royce Raynesway site in Derby, which will double in size to manufacture all the reactors for the UK and Australian subs, creating around 1,100 new jobs. We have also accelerated nuclear co-operation and training between AUKUS partners, offering enhanced opportunities for Australian sailors to train in the UK and the US, including on non-nuclear submarines, and we have committed to more planned visits to the US and nuclear-powered submarines to Australia.

On pillar 2, although the media spotlight has shone brightest on our submarine collaborations under pillar 1, AUKUS has always been about a much broader range of defence and industrial collaboration under pillar 2. From better information and technology sharing to new cutting-edge joint capabilities and more seamless interoperability, as well as strengthening the resilience of our defence sectors, these objectives were centre stage at the AUKUS defence ministerial meeting in December, where Ministers announced new pillar 2 capability programmes on AI, autonomous systems, threat detection, undersea warfare, quantum technologies and cybersecurity, as well as a separate deep space advanced radar programme and a programme of industrial engagement. We are making steady progress with many of these capabilities and, wherever possible, we will continue to be transparent and provide updates as we reach important milestones or embark on new endeavours.

Our ambition to deliver nuclear-powered submarines for Australia will remain trilateral. However, as our work progresses on AUKUS advanced capabilities—pillar 2—and other critical defence and security capabilities, we are open to engaging with allies and close partners. Defence Ministers also announced new future combined exercises, including a joint exercise in the autumn of 2024 off the east coast of Australia to test new equipment to protect critical underwater infrastructure, including autonomous systems. Joint exercises such as this improve our ability to work together and enhance the development of new capabilities.

My noble friend Lord Risby is absolutely right to raise the important function of the AUKUS working groups, which continue to progress the ambition set out in December by Defence Ministers. I am also grateful to him for highlighting the pivotal role that Barrow will play as a home of UK submarine-building. The Government have committed £5 million to support the long-term delivery board for Barrow and are working in close co-operation with Westmorland and Furness Council and BAE Systems to develop that community. With the infrastructure to support this ambition, it should be a thriving place for people to work and live. That includes local transportation and other community projects.

Critical to the success of AUKUS and the strength of the partnership is our ability to forge deeper and more seamless ties between our nations right across the defence sector, so we were delighted that Congress recently passed legislation to establish an AUKUS nations exemption to the International Traffic in Arms Regulations—ITAR—for the UK and Australia. I understand some of the concerns about the small print of this, but the principle having been taken is a very significant step in the right direction.

Closer collaboration and exchanges between our businesses and experts will drive innovation, enable us to make the most of emerging technologies and provide an opportunity for UK defence companies to turbocharge exports. To further grease the wheels of innovation and trade, we have established the advanced capabilities industry forum and will shortly publish the first AUKUS innovation challenge, deepening those crucial links between our three systems to ensure we support the development of skills fit for the future workforce.

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

I thank the Minister for giving way. He just mentioned the AUKUS advanced capabilities industry forum and collaboration with trade and industry. That is absolutely spot on, but no one mentions working with universities. Is there not huge potential for the AUKUS programme, in the USA, Australia and here in the UK, to work with our world-class universities to turbocharge this programme? I am chancellor of the University of Birmingham, which last week won a Queen’s Anniversary Prize at Buckingham Palace for its work with Rolls-Royce on aero-engines. It is so powerful. Should we not be promoting this more?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

I could not agree more. Rolls-Royce is in the process of doubling its graduate intake between 2022 and 2025, and taking on an enormous number of apprentices over the next 10 years to ensure that we build up this capability of proper, genuine, well-paid and highly skilled jobs for life—exactly the sort of thing that the noble Lord refers to.

Alongside our AUKUS partners, we have also committed to co-operate on the deep space advanced radar capability programme. Although DARC is not part of AUKUS as a result of the particular nature of regulatory requirements covering space-related technologies, it is a clear benefit from the closer trilateral working relationship that we have forged through our AUKUS partnership. That shows the breadth of thinking that AUKUS is projecting.

A couple of noble Lords raised our non-proliferation obligations. As part of the AUKUS programme, we have engaged extensively with the International Atomic Energy Agency, as noble Lords would expect. The UK, the US and Australia are fully committed to an approach that protects classified information and strengthens the global regime.

On the question of other strategic allies in the Indo-Pacific, such as Canada, Japan or indeed South Korea, which was mentioned, we already enjoy close defence relationships.

On exchanges, we currently have three Australian officers embedded in the Royal Navy submarine officer nuclear training pipeline and two Royal Australian Navy personnel embedded in the Submarine Delivery Agency in the Defence Nuclear Organisation. An advanced verification team formed of experts from all three partner countries visited Pearl Harbour and Faslane last year to build our understanding of the maintenance and industrial skills required to maintain nuclear submarines.

I shall just go through some of the specific questions. The noble Lord, Lord Browne, asked about costs and contingencies. In addition to the £3 billion extra provided to our Defence Nuclear Organisation, I confirm that there will be sustained funding to support the AUKUS programme over the next decade. It will be a process of iteration but the commitment is absolutely there.

Can we really build submarines faster than ever before? We have a commitment from our industrial partners and confidence in that. Rolls-Royce is producing the reactors and we have invested billions of pounds in both Barrow and Derby. As I said, we have committed to more than 1,000 new jobs already.

It is better that I write to the noble Lord, Lord Browne, about our assessment of uncrewed submarines.

At this time, it is not for me to comment on President Trump and the presidential candidates’ views. At the moment, all three parties are confident of the longevity of the tripartite agreement.

On the question of jobs in Belfast, there is indeed a very proud tradition and industrial past of shipbuilding in Northern Ireland and across the UK. I take the point: Barrow-in-Furness has the licence and capability to build the submarines, but I am certain that there will be a lot of SME opportunity that includes Northern Ireland. In fact, we will ensure that it does.

In closing, I express my gratitude once again to my noble friend Lord Risby for initiating this important debate on AUKUS. Our national defences have always been dependent on the strength of our resolve, the quality of our people and capabilities, and the power of our alliances. In our more dangerous world, the AUKUS partnership is strengthening all three of these elements. Our adversaries may be aligning but, through AUKUS, the UK, the US and Australia have become ever more connected, prepared and lethal. AUKUS is a partnership building bridges across the Atlantic and the Pacific. It is a partnership for the future that, I hope, will keep us safe for generations to come.

Situation in the Red Sea

Earl of Minto Excerpts

Thursday 29th February 2024 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Smith of Newnham (LD)]

My Lords, I, too, pay tribute to His Majesty’s Armed Forces for always acting very effectively and professionally. Like the noble Baroness, Lady Anderson, we on these Benches support the limited strikes that we have seen so far. It is clearly right that, in line with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the United Kingdom supports rights of navigation—in particular the right of innocent passage, which is enshrined in Article 17.

That said, can the Minister tell the House at what point His Majesty’s Government would feel it appropriate to come to this Chamber or, more likely, the other place to talk more fully about engagement in the Red Sea and attacks on Houthi targets? There are questions about parliamentary scrutiny of military intervention. For limited strikes, it is clearly right that the Government say, “This happened two nights ago”, but at what point does the number of limited strikes cumulatively become something that Parliament really should be addressing and able to scrutinise more fully?

Beyond that, as the noble Baroness, Lady Anderson, pointed out, what we are seeing from the Houthis is action that is impacting on trade and navigability. It impacts not only the United Kingdom or our conventional western allies; these attacks are affecting global trade. There have been attacks on Chinese-registered companies’ ships and on crews from India, Sri Lanka and Syria. Although we clearly need to be talking with our conventional partners and allies, what discussions are we also having with China, India and other countries about more global ways of tackling this situation? In defending the Red Sea and keeping it open for trade, we are not only acting for the West but looking more globally. Is there scope within the United Nations to be talking much more broadly with a variety of countries that are, perhaps, not our normal partners and which even the noble Lord, Lord Cameron, may not yet have reached in his travels around the world in his first 100 days as Foreign Secretary? There may be opportunities that we could think about.

It is clearly welcome that the attacks so far appear to have been targeted, precise and proportionate. They have taken out Houthi targets, Houthi drone bases and so on but, as the noble Baroness, Lady Anderson, asked, what is the Government’s intent? Is it to degrade the Houthi capabilities, which is clearly welcome, or is it to deter? If it is trying to degrade, which the Government are saying has been successful, is that going to be a long-term degradation or are the Houthis simply going to look to their Iranian backers for further military support? In other words, can the Minister tell the House to what extent these limited attacks will remain limited and to what extent we are going to be able to work with partners to try to ensure that the reckless and opportunistic Houthi attacks stop? What is the endgame for the Government? Is it to ensure that there is full deterrence of the Houthis?

[The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (The Earl of Minto) (Con)]

My Lords, let me start by making it absolutely clear that the Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden are illegal and intolerable. Their reckless and dangerous actions threaten freedom of navigation and global trade, let alone the risk to innocent lives. That is why the UK, alongside the United States and with the support of our international partners, has carried out additional strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen in line with international law and in self-defence.

We continue to take action that is necessary, limited, legal and proportionate in terms of self-defence, freedom of navigation and protecting lives. Our aim remains to disrupt and degrade Houthi capabilities to put an end to this persistent threat, and we will not hesitate to take further appropriate action to deliver this purpose.

I turn to the specific questions raised by the noble Baronesses, which I hope will go a long way to explaining this. First, on behalf of the Government, I continue to appreciate the support from all Benches in the House; it is extremely valuable and very helpful in reaching these decisions, and, of course, we appreciate the immense professionalism of all the Armed Forces and their support who are involved in this continuing and extremely tricky situation.

The effect on commerce goes without saying. As the noble Baroness, Lady Anderson, pointed out, it is really starting to have an impact on European markets and, by definition, it must be having an impact on the manufacturing and supply bases in the Far East that ship towards Europe. On the point made by the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, about China and its silence so far on this entire issue, one can only hope that the diplomatic efforts in that direction, when tinged with a little bit of economic reality, may have a slightly more impressive effect.

As for the actual effect of the specific attacks that we have undertaken, it may be helpful to run through exactly what we are trying to do, and to delineate these specific attacks in relation to a more general approach. These carefully targeted sites—and they really are carefully targeted—are attacking deeply buried weapons storage, launch sites, ground-control systems and radars, which are the four things that will stop these attacks. The intention to deter and degrade is absolutely present, and Prosperity Guardian is all about deterrence. These three things are intricately linked. In the attack last weekend, we hit three buildings, destroyed five drones that were ready to be launched, and, as far as we are aware, no civilian casualties were caused. To date, we have had four strikes on seven facilities and 40 targets. The information is that all four have been successful in support of Prosperity Guardian and our American, and other, allies—it is the Americans, of course, who are leading.

The noble Baroness, Lady Anderson, quite rightly raises the question of Aspides, which is the EU stepping up to the plate, to some extent. To put a scale on that, it consists of four frigates and a single aerial asset. It is a defensive maritime security operation, and it will protect commercial shipping from attacks at sea or by air, but it will not involve itself in strikes on land. It started on 19 February 2024, it is based in Greece and it has an Italian force commander. It provides a valuable defensive role, but we do not see it being involved in any degrading or deterring.

On the question of the conversations with wider allies and other countries in the area, the whole purpose of the diplomatic effort is to put pressure on Iran, to try to stop the supply of weaponry to its acolytes. By taking military action—which is a final resort—as well as the diplomatic effort, we are doing all we can to restrict weapons and finance. It is consistent with our whole approach; it is appropriate and backed up with force.

My final point goes back to the question of global trade and the point that was well made by the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, that it is not just the allied shipping that is under attack. The idea that the Houthis are attacking only ships that are proving to be in support of something going on in Gaza is completely spurious. They attack whatever they like, including, as I am sure your Lordships are fully aware, the one ship that brings aid to Yemen, to support the UK and international partners. So that claim is just complete nonsense.

Finally, I will respond to the question of when these individual strikes become something more of a sustained campaign. It is a very difficult question to answer and it is not an easy one to grasp, because we do not quite know what level of effect these strikes are having on the overall capability of the Houthis. These are limited and deliberate strikes in direct response to the Houthi attacks on commercial shipping, our Navy and coalition ships in the region. There is no doubt that we have degraded the Houthi capability and we will continue to urge the Houthis, and those who enable them, to stop the illegal and unacceptable attacks on UK commercial and military vessels, and on those of our partners in the Red Sea and the wider region. Beyond that, it is very difficult to see how a broadening of this action may evolve.

[Viscount Hailsham (Con)]

Would my noble friend agree that it is highly desirable that other countries that have substantial military assets should use them to participate with the United States and the United Kingdom in the relevant military action against the Houthis? There is no reason why we should be confined to doing it by ourselves with the United States; other countries should play their part.

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, I entirely agree with my noble friend’s point. However, it is the decision of each individual sovereign state to decide at what level they wish to become involved.

[Lord West of Spithead (Lab)]

Is the Minister aware that HMS “Diamond” is replenishing with missiles in Gibraltar—which, I have to say, confirms the strategic importance of Gibraltar? I have a question for the Minister, and if he does not know the answer, perhaps he could write to me. The future fleet solid support ships must have the ability to replenish vertical launch missiles at sea. As I understand it, that is not in the spec at the moment; could the Minister please check that, because obviously the whole point is that we could have replenished Diamond out on station, rather than having to send her 1,500 miles home?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

The noble Lord makes a very good point. I do not know the precise situation of where we are, but I know that there is great flexibility in transitioning to the new fleet. I will find out and respond.

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick (CB)]

My Lords, the Minister will remember that, at an early stage in the crisis, the UN Security Council called on the Houthis to desist. What consideration are the Government giving to further action at the United Nations? Are they, for example, seeking to put together a majority in the UN Security Council, calling on all member states to stop supplying weapons to the Houthis and stop helping them in their illegal actions? If the first resolution went through, is there not a chance of getting something a little stronger by building on that?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, the noble Lord makes an extremely good point. Yes, there is quite some activity, but I am sure I need not point out to your Lordships that the Houthis pay scant regard to anything that the United Nations says.

[Lord Lancaster of Kimbolton (Con)]

My Lords, I declare my interest as a serving member of the Armed Forces. The noble Lord, Lord West, makes an interesting point, but it also exposes a slightly uncomfortable truth: we are using multi-million-pound missiles to defeat drones which are a fraction of the cost. This is ultimately unsustainable. What is the plan? Are we going to learn lessons from Ukraine, where there is a rather more layered approach to defeating drones? Ultimately, are we going to find some other way of defeating these weapon systems?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

I admit that I look at this from a slightly different perspective. We are launching a missile in self-defence at an incoming attack vehicle, which is attempting to hit something behind us, which is probably worth half a billion pounds and well in excess of 100 lives. Having moved into position, there is no question that we are doing absolutely the right thing in deterring, degrading and reducing the Houthis’ effectiveness. On lessons from Ukraine, I assure the House that there is an enormous amount of activity going on in precisely that area, about what action can be taken to update and diversify all the weaponry at our disposal.

[Lord Craig of Radley (CB)]

My Lords, the noble Earl mentioned the intention to disrupt the Houthis’ ability to make these attacks. What steps are being taken, if any, to stop the shipment to Yemen, from Iran or elsewhere, of offensive weapons for use by the Houthis?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

The noble and gallant Lord makes an interesting point. As part of the international force dedicated to degrading the Houthis’ effectiveness, our partners are diverting and searching vehicles, both at sea and elsewhere, to ensure that as much as possible can be stopped from arriving in Yemen. At the same time, we are looking at disrupting the manufacturing capability behind this, which of course is based in Iran.

[Lord Wallace of Saltaire (LD)]

My Lords, in lessons learned, I hope the Government are also looking back at Operation Atalanta, which the noble Lord may recall was an EU operation commanded by the UK through Northwood, dealing with the Somali threat. Indeed, I recall—I was then a Minister—that there were some informal contacts between that UK-led force and Chinese naval vessels, which were also in the area. On the question of degrading, if the Houthis are mainly using speedboats and drones, how easy is it to degrade their capability over more than a very short period? Those are cheap and easy to move and therefore able to operate through all sorts of places. Are there limits to how far we can maintain having degraded them for more than a few weeks?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, the point is extremely well made. All parties are conversing at a certain level. Degrading these small drones and unmanned boats is not just a question of physically destroying them but also of disrupting their ability to land where they are supposed to.

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom (Con)]

My Lords, further to the question of my noble friend Lord Hailsham about the help we are getting from allies, can my noble friend confirm that the two biggest economies in Europe are Germany and France, in that order, which are importing significant quantities of goods from the Far East and China through the Suez Canal and therefore have a big interest in protecting shipping in the Red Sea? What is either country doing to suppress the Houthis’ missile systems?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

I thank my noble friend for that question. To be honest, I do not know precisely what they are doing; I will find out and write. They are definitely supportive of Aspides, and that is certainly a move in the right direction.

[The Earl of Sandwich (CB)]

My Lords, has the FCDO sufficiently studied the people of north Yemen, who are quite different from those in the south? In the view of some experts, they are irrepressible. What is the reaction of international diplomacy to that?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

The noble Lord makes a very good point—one brought out earlier by the involvement of Saudi Arabia. It is very difficult to answer. We must take action to deter the disruption going through the Suez Canal because we believe so passionately in global trade. One would hope that there comes a point when diplomatic efforts and other activity in the region may bring a halt to this very unfortunate situation.

[Baroness McIntosh of Pickering (Con)]

My Lords, Maersk, which I understand is the largest container company in the world, and Hapag-Lloyd, based in Germany, have taken the decision for commercial reasons not to risk going through the Red Sea but to take the long way around. Does my noble friend agree that this is possibly one reason why Germany and other European countries have not committed their forces against the Houthis at this time, as is the increased threat seen to Denmark’s home security and the fear of repercussions at home were it to do so?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My noble friend makes a good point. These enormous shipping operations have clearly taken some commercial decisions, which are almost certainly the right thing to do for them and their customers. One can see why there may be some reticence for sovereign states to get involved in more direct action, thereby threatening some of those countries’ commercial assets.

[Baroness Bennett of Manor Castle (GP)]

My Lords, a clause in the Statement says:

“Intelligence analysis indicates that the strikes were successful”,—[Official Report, Commons, 26/2/24; col. 25.]


yet elsewhere, the Statement notes:

“The Houthi intent remains undiminished”.—[Official Report, Commons, 26/2/24; col. 27.]


Picking up the point of the noble Lord, Lord Wallace, there is little or no evidence thus far that there has been a meaningful diminishment in capacity. Is the word “successful” right, or should perhaps the Government not be saying something such as “achieved its objectives”?

I very much welcome the fact that the Statement says:

“Military action is only one aspect of our approach”,—[Official Report, Commons, 26/2/24; col. 25.]


focusing on diplomatic action but, on the countries we are working with, it talks about G7 partners, the US and the Sultan of Oman. However, many countries have been significantly impacted by this. For example, in Bangladesh, 65% of its garment exports, which are so central to its economy, go to Europe. The cost of containers is already up by about 50% and expected to go up by another 20%. Should the Government not be looking to do more to bring in countries such as Bangladesh, the Philippines and Indonesia, with so many seafarers being put at risk? Is this not a real opportunity to look truly globally and internationally, to try to get the international community working collectively—not necessarily but possibly through the UN—acknowledging that it cannot just be about a few countries?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, I agree with much of what the noble Baroness says. The countries involved in the specific action we are taking are doing everything they can to get a situation where the Red Sea returns to being a safe passage of water. It is globally important; it is not just important for a few countries, as the noble Baroness rightly points out. That is precisely why we are acting as part of an international force to deter the Houthis and degrade their effect.

[Lord Bellingham (Con)]

My Lords, I refer the Minister to the UK-registered merchant vessel “Rubymar”, which was hit by Houthi missiles two days ago. Mercifully, none of the crew were injured, but the vessel is drifting and sinking. It is carrying a very volatile cargo of fertiliser and there is already a fuel leak, so we could well be looking at quite a major maritime environmental disaster. What is HMG’s assessment of the situation at the moment and what efforts will be made to make sure that this injured, badly damaged vessel is towed to the nearest safe port?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My noble friend is absolutely right that it is potentially quite a severe issue. The Government and others are looking at what can be done. It is obviously unstable in an unstable environment and it is important that something is done about this relatively quickly.

Ukraine

Earl of Minto Excerpts

Wednesday 28th February 2024 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Smith of Newnham (LD)]

My Lords, from these Benches, I echo the words of the noble Lord, Lord Coaker. We stand here today supporting our Ukrainian friends. Across the Chamber and across the country, we give our support to Ukraine. It is unwavering, and it needs to remain so, because Ukraine’s war is our war. If we flinch, that only gives succour to Vladimir Putin, so it is absolutely right that we all stand up and say that we support His Majesty’s Government in the aid that they have been giving to Ukraine. The aim of this evening is perhaps to ask a few questions about what further support can be given; our own defence capabilities, to ensure that we have the ammunition we are seeking to give and are backfilling appropriately; the defence industrial base, perhaps; and what assessment His Majesty’s Government have made of the ammunition support that Russia is getting from North Korea and Iran.

First, it is very clear that there is a concern about a lack of ammunition. President Zelensky has said that we must be very careful not to have an artificial deficit in ammunition. Can the Minister tell the House what preparations His Majesty’s Government are making to ensure that we can supply or help supply Ukraine not just this week and next week but for the months and years to come? What discussions are His Majesty’s Government having with other Governments in Europe and in NATO about their support? There have been problems about the pledges of ammunition being delivered from other European countries. We are all in a similar situation, and we are all trying to procure weapons from the same industrial base, even if we have our own defence industries. What co-operation do we have, and what discussions are we having? Are we ensuring that, collectively, we can provide Ukraine with what is needed?

I think there is a real issue. The Secretary of State, making the Statement in the other place last week, talked about the new UK drone strategy. Obviously, drone warfare is one of the issues that has come to the fore in recent years. In Ukraine, but also in the Middle East, particularly the Red Sea, we have seen drones that appear to come from Iran. Could we hear what assessment His Majesty’s Government have made about the potential of Iranian drone warfare? Do we have any sense of the numbers?

Beyond that—I realise that sanctions probably fall in the remit of the FCDO; certainly, Minister Mitchell talked about sanctions in his Statement today—one of the issues about sanctions is that they ought to be stopping Russia being able to export oil and gas in the way that it has been doing. Are His Majesty’s Government satisfied that the existing sanctions are working sufficiently well? In particular, if the rumours are true that among the other countries buying oil now is India, which is one of our Commonwealth partners, what discussions are His Majesty’s Government having to try to persuade India and other Commonwealth partners that have not necessarily bought into the same level of commitment to Ukraine as we have? What are His Majesty’s Government doing to try to persuade them to support the sanctions?

[The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (The Earl of Minto) (Con)]

My Lords, let me start by restating that the UK’s commitment to Ukraine remains absolute, unequivocal and unwavering. Putin’s appalling, illegal and unprovoked attack on the Ukrainian people must be repeatedly condemned by all sides. The Government are extremely grateful for the exceptional level of support across all Benches throughout the last two years.

The UK has been and remains at the very forefront of international efforts to end Russia’s war. With that support, Ukraine has retaken over half the land occupied by Russia, pushed the Black Sea fleet eastwards out of Crimea and opened up grain export routes that do not depend on Russia. Ukraine has made significant progress—not consistently, but with enormous effort and huge fortitude—in repelling an extremely focused and aggressive invader. As we know, it is the second anniversary and, as those in the know have said for a long time, this will be a long war. A lot of the questions that have been asked are about the ability of the West to support and maintain the pressure and ability of the Ukrainian people to mount a continuous defence of their country.

I will take some of the questions that have been raised. On the question of replenishment and available stocks, the Government, not only here but also in Europe and NATO, are moving at speed to attempt to invest in industrial strategy that will up the rate of production. In this country, we have done a number of deals, both through the International Fund for Ukraine and also with some of our armament suppliers, to increase that rate. One of the most commonly mentioned ones is the 155mm artillery ammunition, where the actual rate has been increased by a factor of eight.

That is not to say for one minute that we are able to supply—and I do not think one would expect a country of our size to be able to supply—the full necessity, but in working with our partners, both in NATO and the EU, there is no doubt that the rate of supply will increase again, hopefully to the level of fire rate, which will allow the Ukrainians to hold their ground and ultimately push back. It is not an instant solution and, as I am sure noble Lords will be aware, there are some details that I am not at liberty to discuss, but we are doing everything we can to improve our own stocks and availability and restrict the Russian Federation from obtaining materials.

Some of the further steps we are taking, particularly when getting other countries involved and stepping up to the mark, are, as you would expect, through diplomatic channels. That is extremely important, because when it comes down to it, winning on the battlefield is one thing, but it is diplomacy that really wins the day in the end. That is consistent with all the different issues we are facing now: we restrict the weapons, we concentrate on diplomacy, we restrict the flow of money and we continue to supply all that we possibly can.

On drones, the noble Baroness is absolutely right. The whole concept of warfare has changed significantly. As part of the £2.5 billion that we are gifting to Ukraine in 2024-25, £200 million is going to go to drone technology and will produce an enormous quantity of drones. The challenge with Iranian drones is that, although of course we will do whatever we can to restrict some of the key components, there are malign forces that are only too happy to supply those key parts which are so hard to get hold of.

On sanctions, we have introduced a sanction level that has never been produced before against a sovereign state. With our international partners, it is a major level of sanctions. Some 1,900 individuals and entities have been sanctioned, 1,700 of those since the start of the invasion. They include 29 banks, which is 90% of the Russian sector, and 131 oligarchs, which is £147 billion. The fall in Russian trade to the UK is now 99.7%. The sanctions are working, and we know that Putin is having trouble coping with them—in fact, he admits to it. How those seized assets should be applied, either for rebuilding Ukraine or for humanitarian aid, is an issue which is under constant discussion.

The question on NATO is an extremely good one. The primacy of NATO in this whole enterprise is paramount. The accession of Finland and the final acceptance of Sweden—I understand there is going to be a signing next week, which is great news—shows the Russian Federation the determination that NATO has. I cannot imagine what President Macron thinks he is doing suggesting that NATO troops become involved; I rather hope it is a question of translation at some point, because it is just extraordinary.

We continue to train a very high number of personnel —in fact, we trained an additional 10,000 in the past few months. One challenge that we have with training, and we have about a dozen allies who help us with it, is that we are not certain how many people are still coming out of Ukraine wishing to be trained. I am sure that noble Lords will know that the Ukrainian Government are looking at the conscription age to try to boost the numbers going into their forces. However, despite some of the setbacks, morale remains remarkably high. More than 80% of Ukrainians are determined to regain all territory. President Zelensky still has an extraordinarily high approval rating. Even the change of commanders, which is fairly normal in war, because after a couple of years people get tired and there needs to be some new thinking, has been well accepted.

The death of Navalny is a clear indication of the sort of people we are dealing with. They will stop at absolutely nothing. It is just another example of the complete lack of any form of moral compass that is being faced.

My final point is that the approach we are taking with some of our allies and some of the Commonwealth about buying oil and gas from Russia is one of diplomacy. The challenge is that, as I understand it, they know they are not necessarily doing the right thing but the Russians are charging a price that they almost cannot resist. That is a real diplomatic challenge and it is something that we need to concentrate on with enormous application and force.

Before taking Back-Bench questions, I will just say that I concur entirely with the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, that, as the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion passes, we must all recognise that Putin simply must not be allowed to prevail, at whatever cost it takes.

[Baroness Falkner of Margravine (CB)]

My Lords, we are right to mark this anniversary, sad though it is, but I must say I am dismayed by the Minister’s complacency in his lack of recognition of two other important anniversaries. It is 10 years ago this month since Russia invaded Crimea, and 30 years now since the United Kingdom offered security guarantees to Ukraine through the Budapest memorandum. We failed to deliver on that commitment 10 years ago when Russia invaded Crimea, and it is because of that that the past two years have happened. I am afraid the Minister has shown smugness in not understanding that Emmanuel Macron in France is trying to make us appreciate that the words of the Statement may well come true:

“The tyrant of the Kremlin is determined … to wait out the West”.


The Minister talks of diplomacy. One rule of diplomacy is that, once you rule out options, you soon run out of options. I am very sorry to hear that he thinks having some strategic autonomy in the West might be a mistake. We have to tell the public what the dangers are here.

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, I could not be less smug about the situation in Ukraine, and I apologise profusely if that was the impression I gave. I am commenting on the Statement that was issued last week, which was an update on the current situation. I am fully aware that the world did not respond sufficiently to the challenge that the Russian Federation laid down when it moved into Ukraine 10 years ago. As President Zelensky says, it is all Ukrainian soil that he wishes to get back, not just what has been taken in the last two years. I assure all noble Lords that the Government are far from complacent about the situation that we face now, but diplomacy must constantly have a role to play, now and in the future. The role of NATO is one of defence, and that needs to be adhered to very clearly.

[The Lord Bishop of Leeds]

My Lords, I am grateful for what the Minister has said. It is understandable that the murder of Alexei Navalny is commanding the headlines, but there are other opposition leaders, a number of whom are in prison and possibly facing the same fate as Navalny. There are Russian anti-war organisations outside Russia, including here in the UK. Are the Government using their convening power to bring some of these disparate opposition groups together in order that they can exercise what we might call soft power to influence people back in Russia? Indeed, are the Government aware of their existence? I am aware that they do not all co-operate very well, but that might be for the lack of some sort of convening power.

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, the Government provide support, either overtly or discreetly, wherever they can to these groups. There is no doubt that that can help in certain cases to ease what is a very difficult situation.

[Baroness Helic (Con)]

My Lords, Ukraine and the Ukrainians are paying for the West’s complacency about Russia. It is good now that we are demonstrating unwavering support for Ukraine, and we must maintain that support. But in the western Balkans, where Russia and her proxies are working to challenge NATO and undermine stability in the region, we behave as if it is pre 2014 and pre 2022. Does my noble friend agree that it is high time to change our mindset and our policy and strategy towards the western Balkans?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, this is all part of the same story. There are links between these different malign organisations that need addressing. I cannot give an absolutely clear answer about the western Balkans, but I am very happy to write to my noble friend with the detail.

[Earl Attlee (Con)]

My Lords, on the issue of sanctions, we are doing the right thing. We are trying to impose as many sanctions as we can on many entities and people. Obviously, we should not stop those. However, reports in the Economist suggest that they are not actually very effective.

The noble Baroness, Lady Smith, touched on European co-operation. In my opinion, as I said on 26 January, it is essential that we co-operate on a European level and decide who is going to do what. I said then that if necessary—if it is what we should do—we should create a Royal Ordnance factory. We should be looking at making 100,000 rounds of 155 millimetres a month, but so far as I can see we are just pussyfooting around. That is what President Putin will see. He will see that we are pussyfooting around. For instance, we are not overturning planning regulations or telling BAE Systems that it can do whatever it likes, and needs to do, to create the amount of ammunition we need. We are not telling BAE Systems that if it needs to requisition a machine tool from another factory and that would totally interfere with the rest of our domestic production, it does not matter. The priority must be to make the ammunition.

If we do not give Ukraine the munitions and other equipment that it needs, Ukraine will fail and be defeated by the Russians. The situation is dire. We will then have to double defence expenditure and keep it doubled for the foreseeable future. The cost to us will be very high, and we will not be able to do the things that we want to do for our people because we are going to have to waste the money on defence expenditure.

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, I thank my noble friend for the impassioned view he takes. He is right, and I agree that we need to up the pace of production. Through the International Fund for Ukraine and other enterprises, the amount of money being spent to arm and replenish the situation in Ukraine continues to grow. Out of the £900 million pledged as part of the International Fund for Ukraine, 27 contracts are out with a total value of £340 million, and another £22 million-worth are just about to be placed. There is a competition out for a further £300 million for ammunition. There is £40 million for drones and another £194 million across air defence and maritime packages. That is just this country, but this is a combined effort across Europe. I am sure noble Lords will have seen that the Germans have started building a new ammunition factory, and the pace of growth continues to increase.

[Earl Attlee (Con)]

Why on earth are we bothering with a competition?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

To ensure that we get exactly what we want, and to ensure capacity and deliverability.

[Earl Attlee (Con)]

Surely, we should tell industry what we want and tell it to get on with it. If it says that it needs some sort of capacity, power or machine tool, we should provide it.

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

There is certainly an element of that, but we work within a global market where resources are not freely available. It is very important to ensure that the vast amount of money spent on the production of munitions is properly spent.

House adjourned at 10.01 pm.

Iran: Military Power

Earl of Minto Excerpts

Tuesday 20th February 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Browne of Ladyton]

To ask His Majesty’s Government what recent assessment they have made of Iran’s capacity to project military power beyond its borders.

[The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (The Earl of Minto) (Con)]

My Lords, the Ministry of Defence regularly makes assessments of our adversaries’ ability to project military power beyond their borders and how this may affect UK interests. We continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, including Iran’s destabilising actions in the region. The UK has long condemned Iran’s reckless and dangerous activity in the Middle East. Iran’s support to militant groups directly counters UK interests. The Government are committed to working with international partners to deter Iran’s destabilising activity, including by holding Iran to account at the UN and maintaining our permanent defence presence in the region.

[Lord Browne of Ladyton (Lab)]

My Lords, Iran arms—including by supplying Shahed drones—trains and funds militias and political movements in at least six countries: Bahrain, Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Syria and Yemen. This is because it is a revisionist state seeking to change the regional order. Possession of a nuclear weapon would magnify its ability so to do. This would embolden not only Iran but its proxies, which is why preventing that must continue to be a foreign policy priority. What measures are we taking with allies and regional partners to ensure that Iran is not able to achieve nuclear weapon status? If we are to adopt a more stringent policy to frustrate Iran’s objectives, deepening engagement with regional partners will be critical. What is His Majesty’s Government’s assessment of the state of our alliances in the region? How are we seeking to enhance these relationships and to bolster our partners’ resistance to Iran’s proxies?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

The noble Lord makes a very thorough and important point. We remain committed to a diplomatic solution and are prepared to use all diplomatic options to prevent Iran developing a nuclear weapon, including, if necessary, triggering the JCPOA snapback mechanism, which allows for the rapid reimposition of UN sanctions on Iran. Along with partners, including the US, France, the United Arab Emirates and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the UK is leading international efforts to deter Iran. This includes keeping international focus on Iran to dissuade it from proliferating, stopping the supply of weapons components into Iran, and deterring potential purchasers of all Iranian weapons.

[Lord Robathan (Con)]

Can my noble friend tell the House, given the very serious situation in Iran, what capacity the United Kingdom has to project military power beyond its borders? I refer particularly to the failure of the two aircraft carriers, which we have spent a fortune on and which seem to spend most of their lives in Portsmouth.

[Lord West of Spithead (Lab)]

Rubbish!

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, as with all military activity, and particularly when dealing with an organisation such as the Iranian Government, international co-operation is absolutely critical. That must remain the situation. Everybody is committed to striving to achieve a diplomatic solution.

As far as the aircraft carriers are concerned, we have two. When it was decided that it was not advisable for one to be sent to Prosperity Guardian, the other managed to get going within eight days, which is an extraordinary feat from its crew.

[Lord Singh of Wimbledon (CB)]

My Lords, I am not exactly an admirer of the Iranian regime, but, in the 21st century, should any country have the right to extend its power beyond its borders? The United States, with 750 bases in 50 countries, is not exactly a model democracy.

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, surely the point is that the United States is a democracy. Iran is not.

[Baroness Smith of Newnham (LD)]

My Lords, in answering the initial Question of the noble Lord, Lord Browne of Ladyton, the Minister rightly pointed out that we have sanctions against Iran. But does he believe those sanctions are working, given that the chief commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard pointed out last week that Iran now has unparalleled naval capabilities and the ability to deal with military things from afar?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, this is an extremely good point. We can go only so far with sanctions, due to all the reasons that your Lordships are fully aware of and the fact that Iran has its allies, which are not remotely interested in stopping—and in fact are encouraging—its proliferation. We sanctioned the IRGC in its entirety. We have sanctioned more than 400 Iranian individuals and organisations to do with weapons proliferation, regional conflicts, human rights violations, and terrorism. Since October 2022, we have sanctioned a further 56 IRGC-related organisations and officials. So we are taking as much action as we can.

[Lord Hannan of Kingsclere (Con)]

My Lords, the point of the question of the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, is that sanctions may not be working. Iran has been subject, on and off, to quite stringent sanctions for some 40 years—yet it has developed state-of-the-art drones that are now being used in Ukraine. What would my noble friend the Minister see as turning up a notch beyond economic sanctions and looking at ways of effectively deterring the ayatollahs?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

I thank my noble friend for that question. The key is to keep diplomatic channels open—it has to be. That is the only way this will be resolved in the long term. On drone technology, we introduced a new set of sanctions in December, and last month all components and everything to do with drone technology were included in these stringent sanctions.

[Baroness Anderson of Stoke-on-Trent (Lab)]

My Lords, Iranian influence in the Middle East and further afield is a destabilising presence, providing support for Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis in Yemen, as well as Putin’s war in Ukraine. What strategy is the UK developing with our allies in the region to combat the malign activities of Iran and its proxies, including efforts to interrupt their weapons supply chains?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, the noble Baroness will know that we cannot go into any great detail on this sort of thing. However, we have a permanent presence in the area, as do our allies, and we maintain an integrated international force to act as a deterrent. We also use financial and other sanctions, disrupting supply chains for all forms of activity.

[Lord Swire (Con)]

What is my noble friend the Minister’s current assessment of those who are under threat, in this country, from Tehran directly or through its proxies?

--- Later in debate ---

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, we recently took action against a number of different organisations which have been acting malignly within and against this country. So this is certainly something that is very closely watched.

[Viscount Waverley (CB)]

My Lords, in all probability we are entering a new, extended cold war to counter a global balance of power. What comprehensive and credible policy and deterrence against irregular warfare is being established to deter proxy wars and to protect ourselves from international terrorism, beyond the imperative to invest in defence and engage more in international diplomacy? That last point is one that the Minister has just made.

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

The noble Viscount has made the point for me. Diplomatic routes must be kept open at all times, because that is what will solve it. We have sufficient force in the area on an international basis to provide the deterrent that is required. We are taking action on any form of nuclear threat or proliferation, and the sanctions that are in place are severely restricting, as much as we can, the availability of equipment to that particular Government. There are others, with whom they are working, who are specifically working against us. This is something that we need to focus on very seriously. As the Question from the noble Lord, Lord Browne, rightly raises, it is one of the most serious threats that the world—particularly the western world—is facing today.