Danny Alexander
Main Page: Danny Alexander (Liberal Democrat - Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey)Department Debates - View all Danny Alexander's debates with the HM Treasury
Comprehensive Spending Review
Danny Alexander Excerpts(14 years, 1 month ago)
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The Chief Secretary to the Treasury (Danny Alexander)
I beg to move,
That this House has considered the matter of the Comprehensive Spending Review.
It is eight days since my right hon. Friend the Chancellor set out the conclusions of the Government’s spending review—this coalition’s plan to bring the country back from the brink. We had to act to tackle the deficit: it was the only option to secure our country’s future. It is the only option to build a strong platform for future growth and prosperity, and we will see it through.
In charting the course for the next four years, we have made choices. We have chosen to invest in growth, jobs and the future of the economy. We have chosen to protect the most vulnerable and extend the ladder of opportunity. We have chosen to cut the costs of central Government to free up the front line. These are our priorities—growth, fairness, reform. They are the right priorities.
Danny Alexander
I am going to get to end of this section, and I will give way then.
These are some of the most difficult decisions that any modern Government have had to make, with every number on every page representing someone’s job or a service someone relies on. They are decisions that I know will affect everyone. So today I will set out why we had to act, the principles guiding our choices, and why fairness is at the heart of this spending review.
Danny Alexander
There is an important debate to be had. The Opposition have a chance to contribute to this discussion, but the price of being taken seriously is a credible and detailed plan. They need to recognise that we cannot go on in the way that they did; they need to say which cuts they support and which they oppose, and what they would do instead. Without that, it is opposition for opposition’s sake, and the country will not take them seriously.
Danny Alexander
So today’s debate also offers a challenge for Labour Members. I will be listening carefully to what they have to say, and I hope that the British public will receive a long-overdue apology for the mess that one party caused and which two parties have come together to clean up.
Fiona Mactaggart (Slough) (Lab)
I thank the right hon. Gentleman for giving way—at last. He says that in order to be taken seriously, we need a plan. In order for him to be taken seriously, he needs to be truthful with people. I do not understand how he can claim that fairness is a principle of this comprehensive spending review when women have been hit twice as hard as men.
Danny Alexander
I do not accept that analysis, and I will come to that point later. The hon. Lady should be aware that her party’s plans were for £44 billion-worth of cuts, which would have had an impact on people too. Many of the things that we have done, such as uprating the state pension in line with earnings and protecting the national health service, which her party would not have done, support women.
Toby Perkins (Chesterfield) (Lab)
The right hon. Gentleman is perpetuating the myth that there is no alternative, but he just said that the previous Government had a strategy in place for paying off the deficit, so there is an alternative. An alternative was also put forward in 1945. He can take whichever direction he likes, but he cannot keep claiming that the decisions he is making are the only alternative, because others have been put forward.
Danny Alexander
No alternatives have been put forward by the hon. Gentleman’s Front Benchers; perhaps he wants to talk to them about that.
Mr John Redwood (Wokingham) (Con)
The figures assume 8% inflation over the period, but if, in the first couple of years, we have a complete pay freeze in the public sector and we buy things more cheaply, as is the plan, does not that mean that cash rises can translate into real rises in the programmes that are going up in cash terms?
Danny Alexander
The right hon. Gentleman is certainly right to say that at the end of the spending review public spending will be higher in cash terms than it is at the moment. In real terms, it will go back to the level of about 2008-09, and in terms of a share of gross domestic product to about the level of 2006-07. People need to be realistic about the scale of what is being proposed. The big gainer from the huge deficit that Labour left us with was the department of debt interest, and unfortunately it is the cost of debt interest that we have to meet.
Mr Adrian Bailey (West Bromwich West) (Lab/Co-op)
Will the Chief Secretary give way?
Mr Bailey
The right hon. Gentleman has put great emphasis on the debt that he inherited and the need for the Opposition to be responsible. Given that the greater part of that debt was incurred in bailing out the banks and supporting manufacturing industry, could he be responsible and tell us what he would have cut in that position?
Danny Alexander
We have set out in detail what we would cut—that is the whole point of the spending review.
Danny Alexander
I am going to press on; I will give way again in a moment.
The House and the British people will never forget the financial position of this country when we came into office, with £1 borrowed for every £4 spent—the largest deficit in our peacetime history. Debt interest payments alone stood at £43 billion a year—that is £120 million a day.
Danny Alexander
I will press on, and give way in a moment.
Thanks to Labour’s profligacy, there really was no money left. The country knew it, our business leaders knew it, and, as we discovered, the Labour Chief Secretary knew it too. By May, the alarm bells were ringing—the danger was real. Whether one wants an expansive social policy, a smaller state, or more or less public spending, it must be underpinned by proper control of the public finances. If that control is lost, the policies that have been built, whatever they are, will inevitably crumble.
Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)
The Chief Secretary said that to be taken seriously one needs to have a credible and detailed plan. He then went on to say that the Government have laid out their plans in detail, so perhaps he can give us some of that detail. Which Revenue offices will shut? Where will the Department for Work and Pensions closures be? Among the 35,000 Ministry of Defence civilians, where will the jobs be lost? Will he give us the detail in the same way as when the spending plans in the 2004 and 2007 CSRs were announced?
Danny Alexander
There is a great deal of detail in the spending review document, as the hon. Gentleman knows because he has had a chance to study it, and of course Departments will set out more detail in due course. He would have a bit more credibility on the subject of controlling the public finances if his colleagues in the European Parliament had not just voted for the 6% rise in the European Union budgets.
Ian Swales (Redcar) (LD)
Is the Chief Secretary aware that the 2007 CSR called for £35 billion in cuts, and that in July 2010 the National Audit Office could find only £6 billion that had been achieved? Does he agree that the failure of the last spending review makes this one much more difficult?
Danny Alexander
My hon. Friend makes a very important point. The NAO has indeed criticised the effectiveness of the previous Government’s so-called efficiency programme. Many of those criticisms are well founded, and we will proceed on a very different basis. To give an example, the single indicator that they set out for local authorities to report on their own efficiencies had 66 pages of guidance for them to follow, thereby creating a huge industry in local authorities just to meet the reporting requirements.
Ms Angela Eagle (Wallasey) (Lab)
The right hon. Gentleman has been talking about detail, and there is one detail that I am interested in. There was a leak from the Ministry of Justice demonstrating that it has set aside £230 million to pay for the redundancies that it has announced in its front-line staff. Can he tell the House, because he must have this figure, how much he has set aside to pay the redundancy bills for the job cuts that he has announced?
Danny Alexander
I welcome the hon. Lady to her place. I think that it is the first time we have had an exchange over the Dispatch Box, and I congratulate her on her appointment. Departments will set out their work force plans in due course. They are working on those things, and there are many things that they can do to avoid excessive redundancies. [Interruption.] I am not going to go into individual departmental figures.
Danny Alexander
I am not going to give way again. These figures will be for Departments to set out.
Danny Alexander
I am going to press on and make some progress. I will take further interventions later, but I answered the point that the shadow Chief Secretary made.
Rising interest rates choke the finances of those who borrow, and rising inflation bites on those on fixed incomes. It was the right hon. Member for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (Mr Brown) who once observed:
“Public finances must be sustainable over the long term. If they are not, the poor…will suffer most.”—[Official Report, 2 July 1997; Vol. 297, c. 303-304.]
For once, I agree with Gordon. Those who say that there is a choice between fiscal discipline and supporting growth could not be further from the truth. The choice is between a sound platform to support growth and a lack of control that would undermine it. In reality, it is no choice at all.
Danny Alexander
I am going to press on with this section of my speech, and then I will give way in a moment.
In June’s emergency Budget, we set out the road map to recovery and took the country out of the danger zone. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility examined our plans in June and forecast the economy growing and unemployment falling in every year. It also assessed that we were on course to eliminate the structural current deficit and see debt fall by the end of this Parliament, one year ahead of our mandate. The recovery will be choppy, but we are confident that our plan will see us through.
Caroline Lucas (Brighton, Pavilion) (Green)
Does the Chief Secretary accept that he is introducing a benefit system based on punishment? Does he agree that anyone out of work for more than a year will now lose 10% of their housing benefit? That is punishment. What advice would he give to my constituent in Brighton who has gone for 465 jobs over the past 10 months without success?
Danny Alexander
I do not accept that. We have to control the welfare bill, which has risen dramatically over the past few years. I will come to that later in my speech.
Mr Bernard Jenkin (Harwich and North Essex) (Con)
It is inevitable, of course, that individual Departments will have to set out the costs of redundancies, and it is right that they should do so in due course. However, will my right hon. Friend set out how much extra interest the Government would have to pay, and therefore how much more public spending would have to be cut in future, if we did not start to make such economies now?
Danny Alexander
My hon. Friend asks a very good question. Over the course of the spending review period, our plans will save £5 billion in debt interest, which the Labour party was very happy to pay.
Ms Eagle
I thank the right hon. Gentleman. We know that he will know the answer to this question. He has set out a plan that will lead directly to 490,000 people losing their jobs in the public sector. We know that the Ministry of Justice has already made an allowance of £230 million to cover the cost of redundancies. He must have a figure for the rest of Whitehall put together, and he should now give it to us.
Danny Alexander
The hon. Lady is the shadow Chief Secretary, and we read in a memo directed to the Leader of the Opposition that the Opposition had a plan for £44 billion of cuts, but she has not set out a single piece of detail on that. As I said, Departments will set out their work force plans in due course.
The previous Government’s plan was not a serious plan to deal with the deficit and support growth. It was not a fair approach. It would have led to more, not fewer, cuts in the end, because of higher debt and higher interest payments—more interest on the debt, and more interest on the interest. Compared with the plans that we inherited, we will save £5 billion in debt interest payments over the course of this Parliament.
The emergency Budget set out our plan to balance the books, and now we have shown how we will find £81 billion of savings by 2014-15. Let me put that in some context. Even at the end of that period, public spending as a share of gross domestic product will be 41%.
Danny Alexander
I will give way at the end of this section of my speech.
That 41% figure is about the same level as in 2006-07, and the same level in real terms as in 2008. It is higher than in any year of Tony Blair’s Government. Perhaps that is why he supports our strategy. That is not to say that cuts will be easy—of course they will not—but it nails the myth that we are an ideological Government, hell-bent on shrinking the state out of recognition.
Angela Smith (Penistone and Stocksbridge) (Lab)
In 2007-08, the UK debt stood at 36.5% of GDP. In 1997, at the end of the last Tory Government, it was 42%. Does that fact not expose as meaningless spin the Government’s line on the record of the Labour Government?
Danny Alexander
I think that that is a classic statement of deficit denial. The hon. Lady has to recognise that we are spending £150 billion more than we raise in tax—the largest budget deficit in the European Union and the largest in our country’s history.
Danny Alexander
I will not.
We also have the largest budget deficit in the G20. Those are the facts that the hon. Lady should understand.
Danny Alexander
I will not give way again, I am going to press on.
The Chancellor’s statement set out the level of departmental spending for the next four years. I will not repeat every decision now, but of course I am happy to take interventions. [Hon. Members: “You’re not!”] I have taken a great deal of interventions, and I will take a few more later. Instead, I want to focus on our priorities: growth, fairness and reform.
Gordon Banks
I am very grateful to the Chief Secretary for finally seeing me up at the back here. One of the words that he mentioned was growth. How can we have growth when 1 million people are being put on the dole?
Danny Alexander
How could I miss the hon. Gentleman? I will explain the answer to his question as I make progress in my speech. He will just have to listen carefully.
Our priorities—growth, fairness and reform—guide every choice that we make. We are a pro-growth Government, focusing our capital resources on key infrastructure projects in transport and green energy.
Danny Alexander
I will not give way at the moment.
We are a Government with fairness at our core, and a reforming Government who leave no stone unturned in the search for waste, while devolving power and funding away from Whitehall. In answer to the hon. Member for Ochil and South Perthshire (Gordon Banks), I will address our priorities in turn, and the first is growth.
It is growth that will deliver additional jobs in the economy across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. I have said that our plan as a whole will deliver macro-economic stability, which is crucial to restore growth and increase confidence to invest. We are not standing on the sidelines waiting for growth to happen. We have prioritised spending on the areas that can deliver the best return to growth. Over the spending review period, capital spending will be slightly higher than the previous Government planned, with significant investment in transport capital across the country and more cash being spent on transport over the next four years than in the past four. We will maintain in cash terms resource spending on science, and a new green investment bank will lead the way in the economy of the future. Today we published our local growth White Paper, which includes a regional growth fund of £1.4 billion over three years and announces new local enterprise partnerships. Those actions and many others are major parts of our strategy to secure and support sustainable economic growth.
John Woodcock (Barrow and Furness) (Lab/Co-op)
The right hon. Gentleman’s speech so far has shown that he is sticking to the outlandish predictions of growth levels that he has made, and of unemployment falling year on year as a result. Will he reassure the House and the country that if they prove wrong, he will change course, and quickly?
Danny Alexander
Outlandish predictions by politicians were the prerogative of the previous Government. We have established an independent Office for Budget Responsibility to make forecasts. We do not make the forecasts, and I am merely quoting what the OBR had to say.
Sajid Javid (Bromsgrove) (Con)
Does my right hon. Friend agree that the biggest risk to our economy is the record deficit of 10% of GDP, the highest in the G20? Had we not taken action, that would have posed a big risk and we would have lost more than 490,000 jobs. Opposition Members should think about the jobs that we would have lost had the Government not taken decisive action.
Danny Alexander
I agree wholeheartedly with my hon. Friend. If we had not tackled the deficit, the poor in this country would have suffered most.
Helen Goodman
I am grateful. The Chief Secretary has pointed to the forecasts made by the OBR. He will know that between 1994 and 2008, the private sector created 100,000 jobs a year. In that period, growth was 2.8%. The OBR projects growth of 2.4%. How, then, is it possible that 1 million jobs can be created in the forthcoming period?
Danny Alexander
In fact the OBR forecast more private sector jobs than the hon. Lady suggests. She will know that in the past two quarters several hundred thousand jobs have been created in the private sector. I will explain later in my speech the measures that we are taking to support the private sector.
Danny Alexander
Not for a moment. I am going to press on with my speech. I know that many hon. Members wish to contribute, and the Back-Bench time limit is already at six minutes, so I will make some progress, if I may.
Our second priority is fairness, and let me say what I think that means. Fairness means that across the entire deficit reduction plan, those with the broadest shoulders should bear the greatest share of the burden.
Danny Alexander
Fairness means that even in tough times, we focus our resources on extending the ladder of opportunity through early years provision and schools, and it means that we look carefully at whether we are doing right by those who receive welfare and the working families whose taxes pay for it. Those are our tests and we have met them in full. First, we have published distributional analyses that clearly demonstrate that those on the highest incomes will contribute more towards the consolidation. [Interruption.] That is not just in cash terms, but—
Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Lindsay Hoyle)
Order. The right hon. Gentleman is giving way, but will hon. Members please take their seats when he does not?
Danny Alexander
Thank you, Mr Deputy Speaker.
As I was saying, we have published distributional analyses that clearly demonstrate that those on the highest incomes will contribute more towards the consolidation, not just in cash terms but as a proportion of their income and consumption of public services.
Mr Alistair Darling (Edinburgh South West) (Lab)
I am grateful to the Chief Secretary for giving way. So far, he seems bereft of answers to any of the questions put to him. Does he agree with the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ analysis that the June Budget and last week’s spending review can be fair only if the Government include all the measures that I introduced in my Budget prior to the election?
Danny Alexander
I think that the phrase “no answers” applies to Opposition Front Benchers on dealing with the deficit.
The measures included in our analyses include measures for which we will introduce legislation, such as the measures on national insurance. Those measures are part of our plan and it is perfectly appropriate that they should be included.
Danny Alexander
I am going to press on and answer this point. I shall give way in a moment.
The right hon. Gentleman talked about our analyses counting measures proposed but not yet introduced by the previous Government. I have to tell him that the measures are as much a part of our plan as any others we have introduced. We took the decision to proceed with them. However, I am glad to say that some of the measures proposed by the previous Government did not make it into our final analysis. We rejected the jobs tax—[Interruption.] They do not like it! We rejected cuts to the overall NHS budget and we rejected the idea of burdening future generations with debt. They were wrong and they were stopped.
Our progressive approach also places responsibility on the banks to make their fair contribution. We will continue to press banks to do more and to bring forward reforms to improve our financial system. That is why we introduced the bank levy. The previous Government stalled on that, saying that we would need international agreement first, but we went ahead with it. As the banks need to follow the spirit and not just the letter of the law, we have engaged in a concerted effort to get the leading banks to sign up to the code of practice on taxation by the end of November. We must ensure that everyone, no matter how rich, pays the taxes they owe. That is why we have agreed a new £900 million package for HMRC. That investment will fund a clampdown, bringing in £7 billion a year by the end of the Parliament.
Richard Burden (Birmingham, Northfield) (Lab)
On banks and fairness, will the Minister confirm that families with children are being asked to contribute twice as much to deficit reduction as the banks? How is that fair?
Danny Alexander
No, I will not confirm that. We have made many spending choices to invest additional resources in families with children—a pupil premium in the schools system and an entitlement to 15 hours of free nursery care for two-year-olds in addition to the 15-hour entitlement for three and four-year-olds that we introduced.
Our clampdown on tax avoidance will bring in £7 billion a year by the end of the Parliament, because there is no place for tax cheats in our society—neither is there a place for people who cheat the benefit system. My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions has introduced new plans to tackle benefit fraud.
Danny Alexander
I shall get to the end of this section on welfare before giving way, so hon. Members should stop troubling themselves.
On welfare—
Danny Alexander
I shall give way at the end of the section on welfare because I know it is of interest to many hon. Members, but let me explain our position.
The welfare budget accounts for nearly £1 in every £3 spent by the Government. The cost of the welfare system has increased by 45% in the past decade. In some cases, those increases were necessary—it is right that the Government should help those who need it most—but in many cases the previous Administration’s over-complicated bureaucracy trapped people in a system in which it does not pay to work. Worse still, many were simply dumped on benefits by previous Administrations and left there. That is not fair on them or the taxpayer. No one can deny that reform is essential, but the question is how the right balance should be struck.
Our approach is to move to a universal credit system over the course of two Parliaments to do away with the complexity of the current system so that it always pays to work. We will introduce a new work programme to provide personalised support to those who need the greatest help with getting back into employment, with private and third-sector providers being paid for the additional benefit savings they secure. We will fund significant above-indexation increases for the child tax credit to ensure that the spending review has no measurable impact on child poverty over the next two years. Through the welfare reforms in the spending review, we will find £7 billion of net savings on top of those identified in the Budget. Some £2.5 billion comes from removing child benefit from households with a higher-rate taxpayer. That is the largest welfare measure in the spending review and the most progressive, but it is the one that the Opposition have most vocally opposed.
Ms Angela Eagle
I thank the right hon. Gentleman for giving way on that point. There are press reports out on the wires that a source in Her Majesty’s Treasury is saying that the child benefit cut is “unenforceable” and will be dropped. The press report says that it is
“panic stations in the Treasury.”
Is that true?
Danny Alexander
I think it is panic stations on the Opposition Front Bench if they do not have a single answer to a single question about the action that they would take to reduce the deficit. The story that the measure is unenforceable is nonsense; it will be introduced as planned. The savings were signed off by the Office for Budget Responsibility, which considered the compliance risk involved as well. Higher-rate taxpayers are of course required to disclose all relevant information.
Ian Austin
The Minister’s whole plan is based on two things: achieving, first, the biggest rate of export since 1974 and, secondly, a rise in business investment that has been matched only once in our history. Achieving both those things in the same year would be unprecedented, but the Government want to achieve both every year for three years on the trot. I know that the Chancellor and the Prime Minister do not live in the same world as the rest of us, but where did they dream that up—fantasy island?
Danny Alexander
I had planned to give way a few more times, but that intervention took so long that there will not be time to take any more for a while. The spending review is based on one simple principle: cleaning up the mess left behind by the Government of whom the hon. Gentleman was part.
We are making other welfare reforms too. We will cap household welfare payments at the average earnings of working households and we will reform housing benefit so that support better reflects the housing choices that working families have to make. That must be right. The welfare system should provide an effective safety net, but it should not pay workless families far more than most working families earn. That is where benefit traps and dependency start. Our reforms mark an historic shift from dependency to independence. Our measures are tough but fair.
Kate Green (Stretford and Urmston) (Lab)
Does the Minister accept that housing benefit is also an in-work benefit? The Government have presented very little evidence that out-of-work families who receive housing benefit live in significantly better conditions than any working family.
Danny Alexander
The cap that we propose, which will be debated in due course, is nearly £21,000-worth a year of housing benefit. That is more than equivalent to what most working families have to spend on their housing costs.
Matthew Hancock (West Suffolk) (Con)
Does the Minister think it fair that his, my and other constituents should pay so that some people can live in houses costing £500, £600 or more a week?
Clive Efford (Eltham) (Lab)
I have one simple question: will the Minister confirm that the majority of people on housing benefit are in work?
Danny Alexander
Yes; many people on housing benefit are in work. The point of our reform is to say that the fairness should be between people on out-of-work housing benefit gaining the maximum amount, which we will cap at £400 a week, so that that amount is equivalent to what people in work could receive in housing benefit.
Danny Alexander
I want to press on, so I shall not give way.
Our third principle is reform, which manifests itself in three ways. The first is bearing down on back-office costs. Each main Government Department has found at least 33% in administrative savings: we will share services, cut down on waste and abolish quangos. The second is a massive devolution of power from the centre, reflecting our commitment to freedom and responsibility. Apart from schools and public health, we will end the ring-fencing of all Government grants to local authorities from April next year. We will reduce 90 separate core revenue grants to councils to fewer than 10. Under the previous Administration, the comparable number of grants increased by more than 500%. Our new tax increment financing borrowing powers will allow councils to fund key projects, and we have today announced that we will consider options to enable local authorities to retain locally raised business rates. We are putting the local and government back into local government.
Finally, reform means recognising that the old ways of doing things simply were not working, even in times of plenty.
Danny Alexander
I will give way to the hon. Member for Birmingham, Erdington (Jack Dromey), then I will press on.
Jack Dromey (Birmingham, Erdington) (Lab)
The House has waited in vain for a straight answer to a straight question. I know the right hon. Gentleman would like to take credit for the sun shining, and indeed for the imprint on the Turin shroud, but will he give a straight answer to the straight question asked by my right hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh South (Mr Darling), the former Chancellor of the Exchequer? Is it true or untrue that the growth in the first three quarters of 2010 is a direct result of the measures taken by the previous Government to build Britain out of recession?
Danny Alexander
The last quarter of growth—Opposition Members were hoping that things would be worse than they are, which is a pretty poor foundation for any sort of economic policy—took place since the Budget. [Interruption.] Of course the previous Chancellor deserves credit for that much of his work in office—[Interruption.]
Mr Deputy Speaker
Order. A lot of Members want to speak in this debate, and this disorderliness is doing us no good.
Danny Alexander
Finally, reform means recognising that the old ways of doing things were not working.
Danny Alexander
No, I will not give way.
The old ways of doing things were not working even in times of plenty, so we will revamp the failing system of social housing. The number of socially rented properties fell under the previous Government in total, with an increasing proportion of workless households finding themselves trapped in dependency. The terms of existing tenants and their rent levels remain unchanged under our proposals. Some new tenants will be offered intermediate rents nearer to market rent.
Danny Alexander
I am not going to give way because many hon. Members wish to speak.
Together with capital investment, those measures will create a more flexible and responsive model, enabling the Government to deliver up to 150,000 new affordable homes over the next four years.
Danny Alexander
No, I am not going to give way.
There will be reform, too, in the justice system. A prison population that is rising out of control is not right, let alone affordable. The guilty must be punished, but rehabilitation must be the priority.
There are major reforms in other policy areas. Across all that we do, reform is the keystone to delivering better for less.
Mr Nigel Dodds (Belfast North) (DUP)
I thank the Government for their work in rescuing savers in the Presbyterian Mutual Society in Northern Ireland; they are very grateful. The Government have built on the work of the previous one, but they have brought a solution to fruition. However, may I remind the Minister of the agreement—the settlement—that was made at the time of devolution for Northern Ireland? Will he look at that again to ensure that the challenges unique to Northern Ireland are faced with confidence?
Danny Alexander
I am grateful for the right hon. Gentleman’s intervention—my hon. Friend the Financial Secretary, who did a great deal of work on that issue, will have heard his compliments. I believe that we will introduce a growth paper on Northern Ireland soon, and the right hon. Gentleman’s points on that are very important. I know that questions have been asked, for example, on capital spending between June 2005 and 2018. We believe that we are on track to meet those commitments, which were made some years ago.
Danny Alexander
I am not going to give way.
The spending review will have an impact on the public sector workforce. I should like to say that the ideas, effort and commitment shown by the public sector workforce are essential to helping people to get the best from the services they provide, and we should thank them. The reforms that we are making will make the public services a more rewarding place to work—more power, more trust, more independence—but there will be an impact on employment. The best estimate remains that of the Office for Budget Responsibility, to which hon. Members have referred, which forecast in June a reduction of 490,000 employees over the next four years.
Natural turnover will play a big part, but individual employers will make their own decisions on redundancies. Each such decision will be difficult, which we recognise, so we have introduced pay restraint to protect jobs. We will monitor plans closely to try to avoid localised hotspots, and deploy our regional growth fund to support such areas.
Danny Alexander
I will give way to the hon. Member for Warrington North (Helen Jones).
Helen Jones
The Chief Secretary is proposing to make many public sector workers redundant. Given that, why is it considered fair for others to have money in tax avoidance trusts based overseas? Considering the strategies he is introducing, will he give a commitment that no Minister in the Government has or will have money based in overseas trusts designed to avoid paying their fair share of British tax?
Danny Alexander
If the hon. Lady was listening to me earlier, she would know that we have announced significant additional investment for HMRC to tackle tax avoidance and tax evasion. Of course, every Minister should comply with tax law.
Danny Alexander
I will give way to the hon. Gentleman sitting next to the hon. Member for Warrington North.
Huw Irranca-Davies (Ogmore) (Lab)
Does the right hon. Gentleman accept that the localised hotspots he mentioned, where the cumulative impact of his measures will take the most drastic and tragic effect, include Wales, the north-east and other areas that either rely heavily on public sector workers as a proportion of the work force or where the benefits reforms will have a significant impact? Does he also accept that he will be judged in 12 or 36 months or five years of this Parliament on whether the north-east, Wales and elsewhere are disproportionately and tragically affected by the cumulative impact of the measures he is ramming through?
Danny Alexander
Of course I accept that people will judge the Government’s performance on the basis the hon. Gentleman suggests. I fully understand that, which is why I am spelling out the measures we are taking to ensure that those areas that are most affected are supported through the regional growth fund. His point is important and serious, but I observe only that the previous Government created the mess of the Budget deficit. We have to clean up the problems facing our economy. The worst thing possible for Wales or other parts of the country would be to leave the deficit untackled, which would lead to lower growth, higher interest rates and less employment.
Danny Alexander
I will not give way again to the hon. Gentleman; I shall press on.
Also in June, the OBR forecast total jobs in the economy over the next four years, which Opposition Members seem to have missed. It implies 1.6 million additional private sector jobs over the period. We will do all that we can to help those leaving the public sector to take advantage of those opportunities, and we must remember at all times that the gravest threat to jobs in our economy would be a failure to deal with the deficit. Deficit denial is the single biggest danger to employment in this country today.
Throughout the review, I have been clear on one thing: our decisions need to improve life chances. Fairness is not just the net sum of cash transfers. That is important, but there is more. Fairness is about opportunity and the chance for a better future, especially for the next generation. We know about the attainment gap between children from different backgrounds, which starts at an early age.
In these difficult times, perhaps no one would have noticed had we quietly turned a blind eye, but fairness demands more, so we have chosen to invest. That is why we have introduced a new pledge for 15 hours’ child care for disadvantaged two-year-olds, matching the 15-hour commitment for all three and four-year-olds that was previously introduced by this coalition Government. Cash spending on Sure Start services will be maintained, with a renewed focus on life chances. Although this has meant a greater challenge for other Departments, I am proud that the schools budget will not only match but outstrip inflation in each of the next four years. When we factor in reduced pressure from pay restraint and back-office savings, that amounts to a very significant boost to the classroom. A new £2.5 billion pupil premium will target additional resources on those with the most to gain.
We will be relentless in our focus on social mobility, and in extending the ladder of opportunity. Fairness runs through the heart of this spending review.
Keith Vaz (Leicester East) (Lab)
We all accept that those are very difficult decisions. However, the chairman of the Police Federation has suggested that 40,000 police service jobs will be lost because of cuts to the Home Office budget. Does the right hon. Gentleman accept that if that happens, crime will rise?
Danny Alexander
I do not accept that analysis. Of course, it will be for individual police forces in due course to make their own decisions—[Interruption]—but given the potential for police forces to become more efficient, we think that there is no reason why those savings should have any impact at all on the presence of police on the front line in communities.
Tom Blenkinsop (Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland) (Lab)
On the policy to give two-year-olds 15 hours of education based on free school meal eligibility, what mechanism will be used and how much will it cost to ensure that that happens, given that there is no information about two-year-olds receiving free school meals? I have asked Ministers that question twice, but I still have not had an answer.
Danny Alexander
That is a very good question. I imagine that the hon. Gentleman intended to preface his question by saying that he welcomed the commitment to additional nursery education for the poorest two-year-olds. There are many mechanisms available, for example within the Sure Start system, that can target those pupils, and the Secretary of State for Education will no doubt make announcements in due course.
Danny Alexander
I now intend to finish my speech with no further interruptions.
I am often asked about a plan B. Plan A is to deal with the deficit so that we can support growth and invest in fairness. But we all know that the recovery will be choppy, so plan B is to deal with the deficit so that we can support growth and invest in fairness. But we know that the road will be difficult, so plan C is to deal with the deficit so that we can support growth and invest in fairness. Nothing is more important to our future prosperity.
One party made this mess. Two parties are working together to clear it up. We will hold firm. Where we have faced tough choices we have asked, “What are the fair choices? What are the choices that support growth? How can we achieve more with less?” We have made the right choices for the right reasons. We have given our answers: now let us hear the Opposition’s.
Ms Eagle
No. I have given way to the hon. Gentleman before.
No priority is to be given to the services that we rely on, day to day. That is the choice that the Government have made. Let us have a serious debate about the differences between us, and let us have no more nonsense from the Government about the four myths on which their entire defence of the scale of their cuts is based. Let us hear no more nonsense about the deficit being the result of the decision of one party or the fault of spending on our public services, rather than the inevitable result of a global economic crisis and the greed and recklessness of the banks.
Danny Alexander
The right hon. Lady has said that she is opposed to the welfare cuts that we have proposed, opposed to the pupil premium, opposed to the savings in the Ministry of Justice and opposed to the savings in the Home Office. Can she name one single saving that she would propose to help to tackle the deficit?
Ms Eagle
I have not said that I am opposed to all the changes in the social security budget. My right hon. Friend the shadow Chancellor supported some of the changes in welfare spending. Indeed, it was we who developed them: the Government are putting our changes into effect. Let us hear no more of this nonsense about the scale of the Government’s cuts being unavoidable, rather than the result of a decision that they made on the balance between taxes and public spending cuts.
Danny Alexander
This really is quite a simple question. Can the hon. Lady name a single cut that she supports?
Ms Eagle
If the Chief Secretary had answered my questions, I might answer his. [Hon. Members: “Incredible!”] What I find incredible is the fact that the right hon. Gentleman has the figures for redundancies and the costs of redundancies across Whitehall in his books. We know what the Ministry of Justice figure is, but he knows what the overall figure is, and he refuses to give it to the House. That is a disgrace.
Let us hear no more nonsense about how the spending cuts that the Government have announced were, as a result of some magical accounting trick, less than those that we planned when we were in government. The truth is that this country faced the gravest of economic challenges. The truth is that our party, in government, rose to meet that challenge, and averted a catastrophe for our country by making tough decisions to protect jobs and homes in our economy. The truth is that whatever party was in government, it would now be making decisions to pay down the deficit. Any party, including ours, would be having to make tough decisions.
It is also true that there is a clear choice in relation to what to cut, and the balance between cuts and measures to bring in revenue. My right hon. Friend the shadow Chancellor has set out the different approach that we would be taking, which would protect not only front-line services but jobs, growth and the recovery. The Government, for ideological reasons alone, have used the deficit as a fig leaf for an assault on our public services of a kind that they had previously only dreamt of. They can talk of fairness as much as they like; they can spread myths as much as they like; but we are not fooled, and, more important, the British public will not be fooled either.
The spending review document sets out the Government’s choices. Those choices were freely made. What the Government have presented is their vision of a future for our country. What we have seen is not the big society but the blueprint for a smaller, meaner and nastier society, and we reject it.