National Insurance Contributions (Secondary Class 1 Contributions) Bill

Daisy Cooper Excerpts

2nd reading
Tuesday 3rd December 2024 Commons Chamber

[Daisy Cooper (St Albans) (LD)]

This Saturday is Small Business Saturday. It is an opportunity for every single one of us to celebrate the fantastic small businesses in our constituencies—businesses that are the engine of our economy and the backbone of our communities.

We know that behind every single business there is a story. Either it is a family business that has passed through the generations and evolved, or it is a start-up that was somebody’s life’s dream, but behind every story there is blood, sweat, tears and hard work. This Saturday, as we all go around our constituencies meeting and greeting small business owners, we only need to scratch the surface of even the most successful business to know that they are very worried about the impact of the Budget, particularly the rise in employer’s national insurance contributions. We have heard from many of them already, and we know what the impact will be: they will suppress wages, freeze recruitment and, in the worst cases, shut up shop.

Rightly, the Government keep talking about growth. We all want economic growth, but this particular tax will undermine growth, not unleash it. We have all heard from GPs, dentists, hospices, social care providers, charities that are commissioned to provide health and care, and public health programmes. They are all incredibly worried. None of them has been given a guarantee that the money being taken away with one hand through the rise in employer’s national insurance contributions will be given back through the renewed contracts with the NHS. We oppose this tax, but if the Government will not reverse it, we urge them at the very least to exempt health and care providers.

[Dr Evans]

We have heard a number of times from the Prime Minister and the Chancellor, and even from the Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury today, that allocations will be made in the usual way, but we are six weeks on from the Budget and health services are trying to decide what to do now. They cannot wait.

[Daisy Cooper]

I agree with the hon. Gentleman that GP services, dentists and hospices are having to make decisions now on freezing recruitment and not providing wage increases, so there is real urgency to this measure.

The changes go beyond health and care. They will also affect early years providers and education providers, at a time when we should be reducing the costs of childcare and care services and supporting parents back into work. The measure will undermine that. I have heard from housing associations, Citizens Advice and hospitality companies that the pressure from this measure will make life incredibly difficult for them. Hospitality in particular relies on a lot of part-time workers, and the changes to national insurance contributions will have a terrible effect. Many of them tell me that at the moment—before the changes have taken effect—employer national insurance contributions liability is incurred only once a part-time worker starts earning £9,100 per annum. That is 15 hours a week on the current national minimum wage. Once the changes take effect, however, liability will be incurred at only £5,000 per annum, or the equivalent of 7.5 hours a week on the new national minimum wage. That will disincentivise small businesses from taking on part-time workers. Let us be honest: many people can only work part time because they are picking up the pieces of a broken health and social care system.

[Graham Stuart (Beverley and Holderness) (Con)]

The hon. Lady is making a powerful speech. Someone coming back from a mental health crisis who manages to get one day’s work a week—that may initially be all that they can manage—will, under this so-called Government of workers, find themselves hit by the measure and so will be less likely to be employed. Also, most of the cost of the measure will come out of their wages.

[Daisy Cooper]

I thank the right hon. Gentleman for that point. Many people work part time, for all sorts of reasons. They could be coming back from a period of poor mental health. They could be returning to work after bringing up their children. They could have a fluctuating health condition, be recovering from surgery or, as I was saying, be picking up the pieces of a broken social care system, having become a family carer. We all know these people. They live among us. They are our friends, our neighbours and our family members. Many people need to work part time in order to contribute to the economy and be productive, and it is also good for their self-esteem.

A number of Labour Members have rightly challenged the Conservatives on how they would pay for this investment in the NHS, and they are right to do so, because the Institute for Fiscal Studies gave a damning account of the Conservatives’ manifesto. It said that it contained

“giveaways paid for by uncertain, unspecific and apparently victimless savings.”

Also, the Conservatives could not say where the £20 billion-worth of cuts could come from, so Labour Members are right to point to the fact that the Conservatives have not answered that question. We should hold their feet to the fire on that point, because we heard time and again in the run-up to 4 July that everything was broken and that the Conservatives had driven our economy into the ground and left our public services on their knees.

By contrast, we Liberal Democrats have set out how we would fund many of these services. The Labour party says that its measures will amount to £28 billion for investment in health and social care, or at least in the NHS, but the Office for Budget Responsibility says that once the amount is adjusted for behaviour changes and public sector rebates, it comes to only £10 billion. We have suggested a number of measures and, in the spirit of constructive opposition, I urge Labour Members to look at them, if not for this Budget, then at least for the next.

If the Government had reversed the Conservatives’ tax cuts for the big banks, that would have raised £4 billion a year. If they had doubled the remote gambling duty, that would have raised up to £900 million a year. If they had trebled the digital services tax, that would have raised £2 billion a year. We have pointed to examples of ways that the Government could have raised funds from those with the broadest shoulders. In the spirit of constructive opposition, I urge Labour colleagues to look at those measures.

[Luke Murphy]

The hon. Lady has cited the IFS, which said of the Liberal Democrat manifesto that

“there are clear risks that their package of tax measures would not raise the £27 billion a year that they claim.”

The IFS also described some of the measures as “a bad idea economically.” Confronted with a Bill promising actual investment and delivering actual money, will the Liberal Democrats really oppose it?

[Daisy Cooper]

The fact remains that the IFS said that our proposals for capital gains tax, which would raise £5 billion, go in “a sensible direction”. I recognise that the IFS does not like our proposal for share buy-backs, but other think-tanks are available. Indeed, the Social Market Foundation and the Institute for Public Policy Research support our online gambling proposals. A broad range of think-tanks support a number of measures in our manifesto. As I said, in the spirit of constructive opposition, I urge Labour Members to look at those ideas.

I finish where I started. This Saturday is Small Business Saturday, and small businesses will shoulder a disproportionate burden from the increase to national insurance contributions. We urge the Government not to proceed with this measure, but if they do, they should, at the very least, exclude health and care providers, which are essential to getting health and care back on their feet.

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[Daisy Cooper]

I am grateful to the Minister for addressing my earlier questions. Rather than taking with one hand and giving back with the other, would the Minister support moves to exempt all health and care providers?

[Tulip Siddiq]

The Department of Health and Social Care will confirm funding for general practice for 2025-26 as part of the usual GP contract process later in the year, through consultation with the sector. I understand the concerns about the impact on the healthcare sector, but I can assure the hon. Lady that the Department of Health will continue to engage with GPs, dentists and pharmacists as part of the usual contract process, and that changes in NICs will be taken into account in those discussions.

Let me now turn to the rant, I would say, rather than speech, from the hon. Member for South Shropshire (Stuart Anderson). I was not quite sure what question he was getting to, but he did ask very clearly whether the Chancellor understood the impact of the economic policies that she was making, and whether she would remain in her place. Considering those questions, I wondered what he thought about economics as a whole, so I decided to look into him. Not long ago, he said:

“I have worked with Liz Truss on many occasions…I believe that her economic position…and her parliamentary experience make her the best option to lead our country.”

National Insurance Contributions (Secondary Class 1 Contributions) Bill

Daisy Cooper Excerpts

Committee of the whole House & 3rd reading
Tuesday 17th December 2024 Commons Chamber

[Graham Stuart]

Will the hon. Lady give way?

[Daisy Cooper (St Albans) (LD)]

Will the hon. Lady give way?

[Dr Luke Evans]

Will the hon. Lady give way?

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[Yuan Yang]

I thank the right hon. Gentleman for his point. I always welcome conversations with the OBR, whose representatives came before the Treasury Committee only a few weeks ago. In that Committee discussion, we had a full debate on its forecasts. It found that the long-term infrastructure and capital spending in the Budget, which is made possible by the different tax announcements the Government have set out, means that the economy will, in the long run, be 1.5% larger. I would add that the forecasts in the OBR’s assessment of the Budget have not yet taken into account all the various details of the measures that will be announced in the forthcoming months. I expect those forecasts to improve.

To return to the bill that the Government are now paying, we need to build back our economy and public services. That task requires at least a decade of national renewal. That is why in the Budget we set out credible long-term funding commitments and plans for where the money comes from.

On small businesses, I recently spent Small Business Saturday out and about visiting local employers across my constituency of Earley and Woodley. I agree very much that those small businesses are the backbone of our local economy; they bring character and jobs to our high streets. One such shop I visited is called UnderTwoK, a shopfront on Wokingham Road. I asked the owner, Mark, what the Government could do to help small businesses like his. He said:

“keep going with the focus on economic stability and clean energy. That’ll bring more people our way.”

Small businesses know that the Government are on their side. They know that, because the Chancellor increased the employment allowance from £5,000 to £10,500, ensuring that the rise in employers’ national insurance contributions will not hit the smallest businesses. Those employing four members of staff on the minimum wage will not be hit by the measure. That means that 865,000 employers will not pay any NICs at all next year and over 1 million will pay the same or less than they did previously. The changes have been very much welcomed by the Federation of Small Businesses.

The top concern I heard about from those retail businesses is not about NICs, but about shoplifting and crime on our high streets, which all too often goes unpunished. The funds raised in the Budget allow us to employ over 13,000 additional neighbourhood police officers, police community support officers and special constables by 2029. They will also fund 1,200 new police officers. Introducing the specific offence of assaulting a shop worker and attaching prison time to that offence is backed up by the commitment to put £2.3 billion towards prison builds over the next two years. That is an example of how we are helping small businesses: not just by talking the talk, but by walking the walk fiscally.

[Daisy Cooper]

Will the hon. Lady give way?

[Yuan Yang]

I have taken two interventions, which was the number I set for myself, and we do like sticking to numbers on the Government Benches.

I am proud that the Labour Government are asking the wealthiest individuals and largest businesses to pay a little more, so we can rebuild the foundations of our broken economy. That means: more money into the NHS, with £25 billion in NHS funding over the next two years, which is sorely needed in my constituency and across the country; and £7 billion for education in the next financial year, including £1 billion for SEND. Those are the kinds of decisions that would not be possible under the March 2024 forecast. Opposition Members may look at the OBR assessment of that forecast if they are in any doubt about that. Those decisions would not be possible if the Government were not taking important and serious decisions. That is why I stand, very happily, to support the Budget that we set out.

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[Daisy Cooper]

Part-time workers, especially in the hospitality sector, will be very badly affected. Before these changes a person could work 14 hours a week without incurring employers’ national insurance contributions, but that has now been reduced to eight hours, which will be very disruptive to weekend shifts in particular. Does the hon. Lady agree that that is an especially negative consequence of the changes?

[Aphra Brandreth]

That is another important point, about yet another group who will be badly impacted by these ill thought-through changes. I urge the Government to think again, and to back these very necessary amendments.

[Chris Curtis (Milton Keynes North) (Lab)]

I support the measures in the Budget. Given the speech that we heard from the shadow Minister, before we get into the policy I want to pause and acknowledge the extraordinary contribution of small businesses in my constituency and throughout the country. Every single day, countless individuals take on the challenge of building and running these vital organisations. The task is not always easy, but it is a labour of love, involving long hours, personal sacrifice and financial risk. These businesses are the heartbeat of our communities and the backbone of the British economy, and we all owe them our deepest gratitude. I have had the privilege of working for small businesses and witnessing at first hand the dedication that it takes. Members of my family have run small businesses, so I know how personal it is. It is not just a job; it is a way of life, and a commitment to local community. We must celebrate and support the work of those businesses at every turn.

Since becoming an MP, I have made it a priority to listen to small business owners. Their stories, their challenges and their hopes drive, and will continue to drive, my work in this Chamber, and let make it clear that this Government stand firmly behind them and will continue to do so. That is why I am proud that the Chancellor has agreed to raise the employment allowance to £10,500, a move that ensures that the smallest half of businesses will see either no increase or a reduction in their national insurance bills. It is a lifeline for the businesses that need it the most—and let us dispel the myths we have heard from Opposition Members: 75% of the funds raised from this policy will come from the largest 2% of businesses. But my plea to every single member of the Government is this: please keep engaging and listening to small businesses, because they continue to need our support.

I am sorry, but I will not take any lessons from the Conservatives on supporting small businesses when they have spent 14 years making their lives miserable. When their Government came to power I was working in the kitchen of a small business, the Dolphin pub in Newport Pagnell High Street; admittedly there was a bit of nepotism there, as my uncle Trev was the landlord. Back then the high street was alive, but today it tells a very different story. Many buildings are shuttered, pubs have closed, and a number of our small businesses have been lost. Under the last Tory Government, 10 pubs closed every single week—including, I have just read, many in the shadow Minister’s constituency. In 2022 alone, 345,000 small businesses shut their doors. Members can walk up and down any high street in the country today and observe the toll. This Government are determined to turn the tide.

Too many shelves are empty after being raided by out-of-control shoplifters. The revenue raised through the national insurance changes means that the country can afford our manifesto commitment to 13,000 more police officers and staff who can crack down on the shoplifters who are affecting many small businesses—and, as an aside, we will reverse the outrageous Conservative decision not to pursue shoplifters for thefts of goods worth less than £200. Too many businesses, including some that survived world wars and a global pandemic, were put at risk by the spiralling costs and interest rates caused by the Liz Truss mini-Budget. The revenue raised from this Budget will close down the £22 billion pound black hole that the Conservatives left to us, so we will not see a repeat of those disastrous events.

Too many small companies saw their energy bills skyrocket because of the disastrous energy policies of the last Government. We are setting up Great British Energy, a publicly owned energy company that will invest in clean energy here in the UK and end our reliance on foreign oil and gas.

Too many small businesses are being crippled by staff shortages, often because workers are stuck on NHS waiting lists for months. Because of the NICs changes, we can afford to put a record amount of investment into our NHS to get those waiting lists down.

[Daisy Cooper]

Does the hon. Member agree that because the previous Government gutted public health and primary care, there is now a crisis in the NHS? Although it is right that the Government want to move care away from hospitals and back into the community, does he understand the concern of some of us on this side of the House that the move to increase national insurance contributions on GPs, dentists and pharmacists will actually undermine that drive?

[Chris Curtis]

I thank the hon. Lady for her contribution. I refer her back to the comments made by my hon. Friend the Member for Earley and Woodley (Yuan Yang). Our tax system has got even more complicated, particularly after the last 14 years, and we do not want to see the level of complexity, which costs businesses and organisations, continue to spiral out of control. It is important that we make these changes in a simple way, but extra money is going into our NHS and will be flowing through the system. At the moment, the Department of Health and Social Care is looking at how to make sure that the extra funding is spent as effectively and efficiently as possible. I look forward to hearing soon from the Health Secretary about how that money will benefit all elements of our national health service, but I do not think that that is a reason to add extra complexity to an already complex tax system.

We do not want to raise taxes, and I appreciate that decisions like this are never easy—[Interruption.] The Conservatives laugh, but they raised taxes to record levels, broke our public services and left us with a £22.6 billion black hole. The reality is that they left us with no choice. Our goal is to lay the foundations for a thriving, resilient economy, where businesses can grow, communities can prosper and future generations can thrive.

What we have heard from the Opposition today is a repeat of what got us into this mess time and again. Liz Truss promised unfunded tax cuts and crashed the economy. The last Tory leader promised unfunded tax cuts and left a £22 billion black hole. The Tory party is promising unfunded tax cuts again, and will not say where the money is going to come from. That is what got us into this mess, and it is ludicrous to think that it will get us out of it. However, the mess that the Conservatives got this country into is about more than basic arithmetic; it was a complete failure to achieve any economic growth.

If growth in the UK had simply matched the OECD average, workers would have £5,000 more in their pay packets and the Treasury would have £50 billion more in tax revenues, without having to raise a single penny in tax. Just imagine how much better families would feel with that money in their pockets. We would not need to raise any taxes today if we had the extra tax revenue that was stolen from us by the Conservatives’ failure. Instead, they trapped us in a cycle of low growth, low productivity and low investment. That is the grim legacy of a Government who failed to create conditions for businesses to thrive. From a chaotic planning system to a revolving door of four Chancellors in five years, they have sown uncertainty at every single turn. Let us not forget the economic self-harm of Brexit, which was executed without a clear plan.

The Budget, including the NICs changes—

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[Ms Creasy]

Let me reach the hand of co-operation across the House to the hon. Gentleman, if he wants to finally work on what would be a genuinely affordable and accessible childcare system in this country. However, I will temper his enthusiasm, because his party made things worse. Under the previous Government, there was a 50% reduction in childcare place. We saw nurseries closing time and again because of the changes his Government made. We are starting from a foundation where the places simply do not exist. For the places that are there, too often it is those who can well afford childcare who are taking them.

If we are to get to a position where we have the childcare places we need, so that every child can get the best start in life in this country, we need to invest. We need to ensure that we save what is there and encourage those nurseries that can expand to do so. If we do that, we will reap the rewards, both in the Exchequer and in society. That is why early years provision matters to the future of this country.

Research by the Education Policy Institute shows that 40% of the disadvantage gap at the age of 16 has already emerged by the age of five. Equally, investment in early years means we could save £16 billion a year later, according to the London School of Economics. It also means we will get more money, because more people—mothers, fathers and carers—can make the choice to work and pay tax.

[Daisy Cooper]

The hon. Lady is making a compelling case about the need to invest to save. When we invest upstream in our public services, that often saves money for the taxpayer further down the line. Does she agree with the Liberal Democrats that that could be equally applied to investing in GPs, dentists and pharmacists to relieve pressure on the NHS?

[Ms Creasy]

I have worked with the hon. Lady on various issues, and I hope she will give me the latitude to expand my argument and set out my proposals, which we could move forward on together as a House. I do not doubt her sincerity, but I also recognise the fiscal destruction of the previous Government that we need to deal with, which means we need to tell the British public the truth about what needs to happen. Making unfunded promises is as bad as not promising to act.

Parent surveys show that a real difference is made when 30 hours of childcare is offered. That amount of childcare enables families to make choices about getting back into work. If we want to get to 30 hours by September next year, we need 60,000 additional childcare places and 29,000 extra members of staff. If we do not have fundamental root and branch reform of how we fund the provision of childcare, that will cost about £72 million extra a year on hiring staff alone. That is the challenge we face if we want to get this right.

I know how hard the Minister is working to get the economy growing again. I know he is going to hear pleas from every single sector about the impact of the national insurance changes; nobody should be under any illusion that they are not difficult changes. I make a plea for the childcare sector because I believe that in the end, it will pay for itself. If we are able to get more people back to work, especially mums, who all too often end up bearing the burden of childcare, we will be able to raise more taxes and there will be more investment as a result.

That is particularly true of the childcare sector because it is a people-intensive industry. Staffing costs make up 75% of a nursery’s running costs, compared with 30% for the average restaurant. Because the previous Government systemically failed to invest in childcare, the majority of childcare has been provided by the private sector. Some 85% of places are delivered outside the state sector. There is little flexibility on numbers in the sector, because ratios—the number of people looking after little people—matter. These are not businesses with small numbers of staff; an average nursery has 14 members of staff, which means the additional costs will be about £36,000 to £39,000 a year. Around £14,000 of that will be national insurance.

Many Members agree that we need to invest in that childcare and will be pleased to see this Government trying to address the balance. The damage done under the previous Government meant that 83% of nursery providers said the funding they received did not cover their costs. That is why closures increased by 50% in the last couple of years. This Government have already increased the funding for our nurseries, but while that takes account of increases in wages costs, it does not take account of the increases in national insurance.

I tabled new clause 4, which is about having a review of one element of all that, to ensure that we do not cut off our nose to spite our face when trying to get more people into work. We recognise that extra national insurance costs may have consequences, be they recruitment freezes, reduced staff training or even closures, at a time when we want the sector to expand. Indeed, the majority of nurseries have staff vacancies, so they need extra people already.

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[Gareth Snell]

Again, if my hon. Friend bears with me, I will get to that point, but I absolutely agree in principle that taxation in this country should fall on those most able to make that contribution. There is also a question about how we spend that money and use it in preventative services. Again, there is an argument to be had about how much of the money given to, for instance, the Staffordshire and Stoke-on-Trent integrated care board is spent on reactive services that treat people, as opposed to preventative services that keep people well in the first place. There is definitely a discussion to be had in our communities about whether the commissioning bodies that have the money are commissioning the preventative services necessary to reduce acute demand.

Last Friday I listened to the charities convened by Voluntary Action Stoke on Trent, and they themselves said that their biggest challenge before the national insurance increase was even mooted was the fact that they cannot get recurring funding year on year from health bodies, councils and the public sector. When they manage to get to the end of a project, they are told, “You’ve done that project. Come up with something new.” They are asked to redesign their service to chase a pot of money in order to deliver what essentially is the preventative service that stops the more acute services from facing greater demand. Again, we as a nation need to have a conversation—in part it is brought to a head by this Bill—about what role we see for charities in this and how we fund those services.

[Daisy Cooper]

For a long time we in this place have had debates about ensuring that the shift happens upstream in the sector, to support public health and primary care. Does the hon. Member accept that this measure will undermine the effort to put more investment upstream, and that it will force many charities to do even more fundraising to backfill the gap created by the national insurance contributions hike?

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[Graham Stuart]

There are so many places where the Government have spent it. Having claimed this £22 billion black hole, they promptly agreed a £10 billion pay rise for their trade union backers. Train drivers on more than £60,000 a year are getting £10,000 pay rises while in talks about a four-day week. Those train drivers are not available for the holiday season, because they are so awash with that backdated pay increase that nobody wants to do any overtime. There are so many other areas. We have GB Energy to invest in renewable energy. I was the Energy Minister until April, and there was no shortage of investment available for renewables in this country. Before anyone points to last year’s failure to get offshore wind, that was because of the price window that we imposed. We did not want to overpay for it. There was no shortage of appetite, as was shown this year. One reason why we moved to an annual programme was precisely to ensure that we did not overpay, but could bring on all the renewables we wanted. There are so many areas where the Government could instead not spend the money that they have chosen to spend.

Fundamentally—we need this conversation, including in my party—one of the things that makes the Conservatives the most successful democratic political party in the history of the entire western world, I am proud to say, is that we believe in proper analysis and deferred gratification. We have to make sure that we have a growing private economy, because that is where wealth comes from. If we allow money to fructify in the hands of those who create wealth, it will duly come back to the Treasury with interest, as the Financial Secretary of Hong Kong said many years ago, in rather more pithy terms. The most important thing is to live within our means, and to recognise the importance of feeding the private sector economy, because it is only wealth from that sector that allows us to deliver the public services that we all want.

I support new clause 1. The hon. Member for Stoke-on-Trent Central made it clear that he has concerns about the Bill’s impact, and I hope that the Minister can acknowledge that impact. At the very least, we should look back and check that the impact is, as I hope it will be, more akin to the growth-producing, foundation-fixing, black hole-removing vision of the Government. However, if by any mischance the combined Opposition parties are right about the Bill’s disastrous impact on the most vulnerable, the people furthest from the labour market and the rest, we should find out the truth, and whether the Minister or his colleague the hon. Member for Stoke-on-Trent Central is correct.

I also support amendments 13 to 18. The NHS is the centrepiece of the tax-raising and spending elements of this Budget, and this rise in national insurance contributions will contribute £22 billion—or £20 billion; I hear different numbers at different times, but I will stick to £22 billion—to the NHS. There are a couple of ways to sort out the problems, because the system is entirely dependent on social care provision, the hospice system and ancillary services, including primary care—the things that make up the NHS. In my area, when an ambulance goes to Hull royal infirmary, it may take an hour to get the patient in. That is because patients in the hospital cannot be got out of their bed—even though they are ready to leave—and into social care provision. The Bill will make that worse. Perhaps funding can be vired over to social care. Through the amendments suggested by my hon. Friend the Member for Grantham and Bourne (Gareth Davies), we are probing the Government and the Minister, who is a decent, honourable man. We are asking them to look at the issue creatively and ensure that the misgivings of those such as the hon. Member for Stoke-on-Trent Central are listened to.

[Daisy Cooper]

It is music to my ears to hear a Conservative Member of Parliament finally recognise the connection between the NHS and social care. The right hon. Member will remember that former Prime Minister Boris Johnson stood on the steps of 10 Downing Street and promised to fix social care for good. Could he let us know why he did not?

[Graham Stuart]

The hon. Lady has not been in the House quite as long as I have. I was first elected in 2005, and in that Parliament I spent a lot of time—mostly in Westminster Hall, as I recall—in debates with then Labour Ministers talking about the importance of having a joined-up, coherent approach to the national health service and social care. It is clearly fiendishly difficult. The coalition Government, of which the hon. Lady’s party was a part, and the Conservatives kept working at it. We changed the name of the Department of Health to the Department of Health and Social Care precisely because of that. It is challenging, because social care is delivered through local authorities, but the opportunity is there. Before the Government get all that wiring and complexity fixed—we were working devotedly at that—they could vire funding over to the sector, or exempt from the Bill the sectors on which the NHS depends. Pouring money into the Hull royal infirmary while it is unable to unload the ambulances coming in, or get the healthier patients out, is a crazy approach. I am sure that the Minister recognises that.

I want to mention the impact on social care. Last Friday, I went to Merrywick Hall, a great example of a small, family-run, residential care home. Its 31 residents are not all elderly, but they all have learning disabilities. Some of them are elderly, making them doubly disadvantaged. The home charges a basic rate of just £699 a week to care for those people, and its staff are stretched. I met Katie, who runs the home, and her husband Carl, who oversees the finances, although the home is owned by another. It was quite clear that that they were not running a business in the way that I would recognise as a former businessman; they were running an institution that was absolutely committed to the welfare of the people in it. Between this jobs tax, which the Minister is foisting on us, and the national minimum wage increase, they have to find an extra £56,000 a year, which is equivalent to the care costs of 1.5 residents. That is the reality. That system and those places are vulnerable. If those places go, there will be a massive knock-on effect on the rest of the system.

I hope that hon. Members from across the House are less interested in the system—although it is our job to worry about it—and much more interested in the people. People cannot get much more vulnerable than the elderly who have learning difficulties.

[Graham Stuart]

I thank my hon. Friend, who is of course a doctor. In this and previous debates, such as Second Reading, it is good to encourage a discursive approach in the Chamber, if we are to be valuable. I hope that we will continue to gather in this Chamber, talking to each other and listening. No one would think less of the Government for making changes. I cannot speak for those on the Opposition Front Bench, but I would seek to give the Government some political cover if they found a way to ameliorate the impact of this measure on the system—and, more importantly, on the human beings on which the NHS relies.

In 2021, the then Leader of the Opposition, now Prime Minister, promised a plan

“to ensure that those with the broadest shoulders pay their fair share.”—[Official Report, 8 September 2021; Vol. 700, c. 295.]

Yet all the analysis available to Government Members shows that those with the least will pay the highest price for this measure. In my constituency, HICA, a large not-for-profit provider of social care homes and in-home care—a brilliant organisation that has had the same chief executive for the past five years—was finally getting a surplus to invest in its stock, some of which is almost as old as me, and to give its staff something above the national minimum wage. But following the changes in the Budget, it faces a bill of £3.5 million, more than offsetting any hope of a surplus, which it desperately needs in order to invest in its people and stock. The money will be taken away from that good social purpose in my local area, and instead will go into the Chancellor’s mythical black hole—for payment of additional sums almost greater than the total income of many pensioners, and for pay rises, for train drivers, so that they can pay their union fees; and so that Labour Members can carry on all too rarely mentioning in the Chamber their sponsorship by people who dictate so much of what they share with us—the hon. Member for Stoke-on-Trent Central aside.

Finally, it is interesting in these debates just how few of the more than 400 Labour Members—they can all cheer on the Government Benches at how many Labour MPs there are—want to come and defend these measures. The hon. Member for Hexham (Joe Morris) spoke bravely, but he looked a little world-weary. I think he has been going out and about in his constituency, so I am sure that he is hearing the same thing as me, but said a little more angrily, because he is responsible for it.

I appeal to those Members who are not here to seek change. The 2012 Budget by George Osborne, crudely and rudely called the omnishambles Budget, included a measure to bring in 20% VAT on static caravans. The Treasury civil servants love dusting these things off—they hate an anomaly more than anything. Those are the very caravans that ordinary working people use to holiday on the coast. I did not, alongside colleagues, run my campaign in the press; instead, I built up support from Conservative Members and coalition colleagues, who realised how damaging that measure would be for jobs in their area, the holiday opportunities of ordinary working people, and an industry that is 95% manufactured in the UK. People told me, “Change is impossible—this has been announced in a Budget. You cannot overturn a Budget measure.” You and I, Madam Chair, having been here some time, know that that is not true. Politics is a matter of arithmetic. If Labour Members can build enough support among colleagues on the Government Benches—they do not need to do it publicly, and they do not need to tell us about it—they have every chance of changing this. The Whips and Ministers start getting spooked when 15 Members turn up. If Labour Members can get 30 or 40, they can make a change. They should not feel powerless.

The Government could make changes. They could move £3 billion or £4 billion over to social care, hospices, GPs and the like. They could agree to our amendments. They could come up with some other solution. They have the power to do it. Stubbornness and perhaps a certain arrogance has crept in because of the size of their majority. Government Members, who go out to talk to their constituents more frequently than Ministers, will be in a great position to tell Ministers that up with this they will not put.

[Daisy Cooper]

The right hon. Gentleman is encouraging the Government to ameliorate their position. Does he agree that there is one very clear way of doing that today? Members on all Benches could vote for Liberal Democrat amendment 1, which excludes all GPs, dentists, hospices and charitable health and social care providers from this NICs increase.

[Graham Stuart]

Liberal Democrats did remarkably well at the election, pretty much on the back of sewage. Between water stunts and sewage, a record number of Liberal Democrats have been returned. I am pleased to say that the Conservative party remains His Majesty’s Opposition. Therefore, I urge the hon. Lady and her colleagues to support amendments 13 to 18, and new clause 1. She will find that exactly the same is achieved, but with the backing of His Majesty’s Opposition.