Angus Brendan MacNeil
Main Page: Angus Brendan MacNeil (Independent - Na h-Eileanan an Iar)(12 years, 10 months ago)
Commons ChamberRead Full debate Read Hansard Text
Mr Angus Brendan MacNeil (Na h-Eileanan an Iar) (SNP)
To support the hon. Gentleman’s assertion, I point out that I was on a radio programme on BBC Radio Scotland a number of months ago on which there was a balance of contributions on daylight saving. However, the overwhelming majority of callers to the programme were against the move.
Mr Chope
If that is so, and I am sure it is, we are in danger of embarking on a course that will waste an enormous amount of public money and Government time. The Under-Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills, the hon. Member for Kingston and Surbiton (Mr Davey), said in Committee that a trial involving advancing all the clocks in the UK by one hour would not proceed
“if there was clear opposition from any part of the country.”––[Official Report, Daylight Saving Public Bill Committee, 7 December 2011; c. 4.]
Mr Chope
It is easy for people to assert, in a rather patronising way, that a particular measure will benefit people in Scotland, but on Second Reading some hon. Members representing Scottish constituencies expressed a completely different view. I would prefer to trust their assessment of their constituents’ wishes than rely upon some academic treatise, which I am afraid to tell my hon. Friend I have not yet had the opportunity to look at.
Mr MacNeil
If there is any perception of high-handedness from Westminster, last week’s figure of 1,000 new members of the Scottish National party will probably be dwarfed. That, of course, was through www.snp.org/join.
Mr Chope
The hon. Gentleman and I are on the same side on this issue, and I am not totally unfamiliar with Scotland because I had the privilege of spending four years as a university undergraduate there. I remember those cold mornings, as a keen undergraduate, getting up early and facing the stiff east wind in the dark. I understand and feel for the people in Scotland who are faced with the prospect of having even darker mornings.
Mr MacNeil
These comments about the numbers of road deaths and accidents are misleading. The graph on deaths in the mid to late ’60s shows their number falling before and during the trial but falling more steeply after it. It is possible to argue, therefore, that the trial delayed the downward glide of the number of road fatalities and that there are people who died during that period who might not have done had we not had those three years of dark winter mornings.
Mr Chope
I am grateful to you, Mr Speaker, and to my hon. Friend for his point of order. For the sake of clarification, I was suggesting that the part of the Bill calling for the collection of evidence is not necessary, but we can develop those arguments in due course if there are amendments pertinent to it.
The most important thing is that I should make some progress. I have not made much, owing to the number of interventions and the amount of interest in this group of amendments. There is opposition to such a change in Scotland; I can see that there is some support as well. In the past year, the Government have basically done nothing in relation to the Bill since Second Reading. They have not considered the evidence. If they had, we might not need to allow up to 18 months for the proposed inquiry. At the moment, the Government suggest that it could take 18 months rather than one year. My amendment would reduce the scope of that inquiry, thereby reducing the costs and enabling progress to be made more quickly. Those who want progress will see merit in amendment 59, because it would focus the scope of any inquiry.
Mr MacNeil
The effect of darkness has been asserted in the Chamber. In fact, the most dangerous hour on the road is 3 o’clock in the afternoon, which is in daylight all the time. Another point to bear in mind is that since the trial, the fatality rate has dropped from about 7,500 a year to below 2,500 a year. The improvements in road safety have been due to a number of other factors. Daylight does not seem to be as big a factor as some Members would have us believe.
Mr Chope
I am almost lost for words. My hon. Friend has come into my constituency on I do not know how many occasions to talk to I know not which businesses about the Bill. I hope that he told them that their prime responsibility should be to communicate with me as the Member for Christchurch rather than through him as the Member for Bournemouth. East. Be that as it may, I have yet to hear from these businesses. They might be run by people who are resident in my hon. Friend’s constituency, so I have no problem with that. With the greatest respect, my hon. Friend misunderstands the purpose of amendment 59, which is to bring some focus and simplicity to this issue by concentrating on the summer months rather than complicating matters by including GMT.
Mr MacNeil
Does the hon. Gentleman agree that tourism is more a function of temperature and that it dies down in the winter months because it is colder? If any group of people can get up an hour earlier, take advantage of the entirety of the daylight and are free to do so it those who go on holiday. On holiday, we can choose when we go to bed and when we get up without reference to an employer or anybody else.
Mr Chope
The hon. Gentleman makes a powerful and persuasive point—one that I must admit I had not considered. He makes a worthwhile addition to our deliberations on this aspect of the Bill.
Before moving on to other amendments in the group, I urge the Minister to give his unqualified support to Government research on the potential costs and benefits of my proposal in the event of this Bill not reaching the statute book this Session. The Government do not need legislation or even the authority of the House to prepare a report. I have noted a certain reluctance on the part of the Government to engage in the lively debate consequent on the introduction of this Bill. If the Government are supportive of the Bill, as amended at their insistence in Committee, why have they not already produced or started work on producing a report from experts? I shall not be rude to the Government by suggesting that they have been sitting on the fence and wanting to have it both ways. That is not my nature, but I think that the Government and the Minister have to answer a number of questions about this matter.
At the behest of my hon. Friend the Member for North East Somerset (Jacob Rees-Mogg), let me turn briefly to some of the other amendments in the group. Amendment 58, tabled by my hon. Friend the Member for Shipley (Philip Davies) and others, picks up a concern articulated in Committee that the Bill’s proposals could impact particularly adversely on faith communities. The amendment would require the Secretary of State to have specific regard to
“the interests and concerns of the principal faith communities”
in the UK. It seems a perfectly sensible amendment to me, as I would expect any amendment by my hon. Friend to be. If amendment 59 were carried, however, I believe that many of the concerns of faith communities such as Orthodox Jews would be addressed in any case because their concerns are centred principally around having darker mornings rather than lighter summer evenings. I recognise that amendment 59 would not satisfy amateur astronomers who would have to stay up even later to get a good view of the stars, but it would address the concerns underlying amendment 58.
Mr Chope
I am grateful to my hon. Friend for making that point.
Amendment 3 stands in the name of my hon. Friend the Member for North East Somerset and I look forward to hearing his speech in support of it. The amendment proposes to leave out clause 2, and I may well share the scepticism of my hon. Friends who have supported that amendment, because they obviously feel that the Bill would be better if it made no reference to what is described as the “Independent Oversight Group”.
One thing seems to be absolutely clear: this so-called “Independent Oversight Group” will not be independent of the Government. Its members will be chosen by the Secretary of State, who will be able to remove them on a whim, and subsection (3) provides that they will not even be entitled to have all their expenses defrayed, because instead of using the word “must” the Bill refers only to “may” in this regard. They will not be allowed to choose their own terms of reference and they will have to do as they are told by the Secretary of State, even to the extent that he will be able to order them not to publish their advice quickly. They might produce their report quickly, but the clause means that the Secretary of State will be able to say to them that they should not produce the report based on their findings until a given time, perhaps closer to a year or 18 months after they had been asked to start their work. So I can understand the scepticism.
My hon. Friends the Members for Wellingborough (Mr Bone) and for Gainsborough (Mr Leigh) and I have tabled the more modest amendment 63, which would require the independent group to be comprised of “independent academic experts”. We did so not because we believed that a group of independent academics is necessarily best suited to this task, but because the Minister promised in Committee that the group would be so limited and the amendment would prevent him from changing his mind later. The amendment would also provide the opportunity to probe him further as to how and why he believes that independent academic experts are the best people to advise on a report on the potential costs and benefits.
I have been campaigning for a long time for the Government to carry out work and produce a comprehensive report on the costs and benefits of UK membership of the European Union. I find it interesting that although the Government resolutely refuse to do that, they are prepared to contemplate such an inquiry into the costs and benefits of changing the time zones within this country.
Mr MacNeil
Did the hon. Gentleman fear, as I did when I heard the hon. Member for Beckenham (Bob Stewart) talk about sharing a time zone with Europe, creeping Euro-harmonisation, which perhaps would not be helpful at all in this instance?
Ian Murray (Edinburgh South) (Lab)
I too will be brief. I just want to take the opportunity to pay a glowing tribute to the hon. Member for Castle Point (Rebecca Harris), who has brought the Bill to the House. She has conducted herself in a manner that every hon. Member should follow; she has been constructive in her dealings with the Government and the Opposition on the Bill, not just with regard to today’s amendments, but in Committee at the beginning of December. She deserves great credit for introducing the Bill.
I hope that not too many Members feel that this is Groundhog day. As a new Member, I have not debated daylight savings before in the House, but many Members who have been here for slightly longer than I have will have had a number of such opportunities. As I said in Committee, I hope that we can conclude today’s debate, reach Third Reading and get moving on the Bill before it gets dark. That in itself would be a great tribute to the Bill.
Ian Murray
I will not give way, if the hon. Gentleman does not mind, because we want to move on. It is important that the Minister hears the debate on the amendments in the first group, which relate to the independent oversight group that will look after how we go forward with the in-depth report. There have been calls for faith groups to be consulted, and that is important. The energy issues put forward by the hon. Member for Argyll and Bute (Mr Reid) should be at the top of the agenda. At a time when the Government are cutting too far and too fast and household incomes are—[Interruption.] It does not actually say that here, as someone claims from a sedentary position, but everyone in the country knows that the Government are going too far and too fast. Perhaps if those on the Treasury Bench would listen to Opposition Members, we might be a little further forward in terms of growth. I was making a serious point about energy, and such matters have to be taken into account.
The Minister has to be clear and specific about the role to be played by the devolved Administrations in putting together the report.
Ian Murray
I will not give way. The hon. Gentleman will have an opportunity to speak.
I commend the hon. Lady for bringing the Bill to this stage in the House and I hope that we can at least conclude its Third Reading this morning.
Mr Davey
I concur with the hon. Member for Edinburgh South (Ian Murray) in his praise for my hon. Friend the Member for Castle Point (Rebecca Harris). May I, laser beam-like and briefly, focus on the amendments?
Amendment 3 talks about the independent oversight group. The hon. Member for Christchurch (Mr Chope) seemed to misunderstand what the group is about. It is about providing the appropriate challenge to the evidence and methodologies to ensure that they are robust. Amendment 3, which would dispense with the independent oversight group entirely, would be a retrograde step. The Committee welcomed the way in which we had approached the issue of the oversight group.
The amendments that seek to change the membership of the group misunderstand the role of the group. They seek to suggest that it is about representation, when it is not. Trying to confine it to academics only would be a mistake. There might be an appropriate expert who might not be described as an academic. I hope the House will understand that the oversight group is formed in the right way with the right terms of reference. I am surprised that Members want to amend the terms of reference to make them more prescriptive, because that could narrow them down.
Members have talked about the faith impact. Amendment 95 is not needed, because it is clear that this is one of the qualitative potential effects that the report would look at. To reassure hon. Members further, I can say that specific legal provision requiring that the impact on faith communities be considered is unnecessary because the Secretary of Sate is subject to the public sector equality duty in the Equality Act 2010. So, in preparing the report and taking a view on whether to exercise the powers for a trial, the Secretary of Sate would be required under that duty to take into account the impact that a change might have on people of a particular faith and, indeed, on other people with protected characteristics.
Mr MacNeil
On a point of order, Mr Deputy Speaker. Is it in order for the Minister to speak so quickly that it is hard for him to be understood?
Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Lindsay Hoyle)
That is not a point of order. It is up to the Minister how quickly he speaks. We do not place a limit on how fast or how slowly Ministers speak, and thank goodness for that.
Jacob Rees-Mogg
I wish to speak to my amendments 3 and 5, and to speak more broadly to some of the other amendments tabled by my hon. Friend the Member for Christchurch (Mr Chope). However, I hope that I do not do so at such length that my hon. and learned Friend the Member for Sleaford and North Hykeham (Stephen Phillips) decides to move a motion to get me to shut up—the Commons equivalent of the Lords procedure to move that
“the noble Lord be no longer heard”.
We have just heard from the Minister, and I listened to him with great interest.
Mr MacNeil
I am impressed that the hon. Gentleman listened to the Minister. Was he able to understand, or even catch, some of the words that he enunciated?
Jacob Rees-Mogg
I thank the hon. Gentleman for his question; it is always good to have an intervention from him. I did manage to understand the Minister—or at least, I think I did—but I was shocked by what I heard. Once again, we heard that this House must be craven in front of the great power that is the European Union. We cannot even set our own time any more without the say-so of our friends in Brussels, and that is a pretty sorry state to have got into.
Mr MacNeil
On the point about harmonisation with Europe, many people have mentioned the costs for businesses. Surely, however, that argument should apply in reverse. If the gains are so great, would not the Eurocrats want to change so as to be in the same time zone as the world financial centre that is London? Perhaps this reveals the lie in the argument: there is no gain. The gain would be greater for those on the other side of the English channel than for those on the north side.
Jacob Rees-Mogg
The hon. Gentleman makes an excellent point, as he so often does. Na h-Eileanan an Iar is enormously well represented in the House, and it is one of the great arguments for maintaining the Union that he should continue to have an audience here for his wise words. I wanted to propose the introduction of Somerset time, a new time zone for the world, which the Europeans could come over to. Sadly, however, my amendment was not selected, for reasons that I fail to understand. The mysteries of this place to a relatively new Member remain manifold.
I should like to speak briefly to amendment 59 before I come to my own amendments. It is a wonderfully wise amendment, because it understands that in the winter there is a shortage of daylight and that Greenwich mean time has the great advantage—a somewhat old-fashioned one, perhaps—of the sun being at its highest point at noon. This gives us an even balance of sunlight during the course of the day.
Mr MacNeil
The hon. Gentleman is making an important point. Surely midday is not called midday by accident. It is called midday because it is in the middle of the day.
Jacob Rees-Mogg
As always, my hon. Friend makes a wise and pertinent intervention.
There has been one occasion in history on which daylight was extended. Those hon. Members who are up on their Bible will remember their studies from their student days. They will recall the book of Joshua, chapter 10, verse 13:
“And the sun stood still, and the moon stayed until the people had avenged themselves upon their enemies. Is not this written in the book of Jasher? So the sun stood still in the midst of heaven and hastened not to go down about a whole day.”
That is really what amendment 59 is all about. It is about accepting what verse 14 goes on to say, which is that that happened only once; it was a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence. God allowed the sun to stand still in the heavens on that day only, and never again.
There is absolutely nothing that we can do about that. No great Act of Parliament or—dare I say it—regulation from the European Union can create more daylight. We are therefore faced with a simple choice in the winter. Do we get up in the dark and have teatime when it is a bit brighter, or do we have murky, dank, dark mornings—I am sorry, I meant that the other way round. Do we instead get up with a spring in our step and go to work with enthusiasm, full of beans and ready to face the world, and sacrifice a little bit of daylight at teatime?
In seeking to leave us on summer time, my hon. Friend’s amendment would allow all the supposed advantages to be investigated, including having an extra hour of daylight in the evenings so that people could have their barbecues and all that sort of thing, but it would not upset the mornings. That is particularly important for our friends in Scotland, which is why I want to mention amendment 23.
Jacob Rees-Mogg
My hon. Friend makes an extraordinarily good and wise point. People sometimes see things happen and figures change, and then claim that A led to B. Somerset county council switched off all its speed cameras and the number of accidents fell dramatically, but, much as I dislike speed cameras, it seems unlikely that in that instance A led directly to B. We should be enormously careful about advancing arguments based on theoretical statistics relating to what might happen when there is a strong general trend.
The key issue—I now return to the subject of amendment 59—is that of what people like. Why do we not learn the lessons of history? We have tried this before. We tried it during the war, but people did not like it, and as soon as the war ended we got rid of it. If it had been such a fantabulous idea, we would have retained it in the later 1940s, and in the 1970s.
Let us consider Portugal, our oldest ally and our ally since the treaty of Windsor in 1386. Portugal made this mistake. The Portuguese erred: they decided to abandon the proper time, as set by the sun, and get closer to Europe. That failed, and they reversed their decision.
Mr MacNeil
The hon. Gentleman mentions Portugal. Only yesterday, I discovered that according to Mr João Grancho, president of the national association of teachers in that country, the time change had
“generated irritability and inattention among the youngest and many fell asleep in class”.
Of course they fell asleep: they had been woken in the middle of the night to go to school. That is exactly what would happen here if we were so foolish as to forget the lessons of 30 or 40 years ago.
Jacob Rees-Mogg
I am grateful for that invaluable intervention. I am sorry to say that I think that merely discussing this issue causes irritability among some hon. Members.
Jacob Rees-Mogg
That brings me to amendment 23, which requires the consultation to include representatives from England—in brackets, Somerset—Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Mr MacNeil
As the hon. Gentleman may know, Na h-Eileanan an Iar—which he pronounces so well—is 7.5 degrees, or a full half hour, west of the United Kingdom. We are penalised for that as well as being to the north of the UK. We have a problem of both latitude and longitude.
Jacob Rees-Mogg
That is an extremely important point. If one is a Unionist—if one believes that this is one great country consisting of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and that we should be united as a single people—one has to maintain that if the poorest crofter in Na h-Eileanan an Iar is inconvenienced for a ha’porth of extra business in Cornwall, that is most unreasonable, because it has a disproportionate effect on our friends and allies in Scotland.
Jacob Rees-Mogg
My hon. Friend has already heard me say that China is very big. It must be acknowledged that the United States is also quite big, although not as big as China. For a huge country to operate different time zones is one thing, but when I proposed that Somerset should have its own time zone—because it struck me as perfectly rational that time should be set from the centre of the universe—my proposal was considered slightly eccentric. It was felt that the United Kingdom should not be divided in that way. I do not see why, if this is not considered appropriate for Somerset, we should suddenly do it to Scotland.
I also think it hugely important symbolically to our standing as one country for there to be no difference in time in different parts of that country. The Bill, as it stands, seeks to ignore the Union for the sake of some rather narrow and selfish benefits that are, in fact, trivial in comparison with the great history and breadth of our country’s tradition.
Mr MacNeil
I am concerned by the suggestion that a shared time zone enables us to live happily together in one country. We can live happily in many countries together. I believe that the Republic of Ireland proves that point. I hope that we are not seeing any hint of a return of 19th-century imperialism, or any wish for the Republic of Ireland to be ruled directly from the House of Commons.
Jacob Rees-Mogg
As it happens, I think that it would be good manners to consult the Republic of Ireland as well, because the Irish economy is very dependent on the UK economy. I should like to see that covered in the Bill, although it is not mentioned in the amendment. As I have said, a rather selfish approach has been taken .
Mr Reid
I am grateful, because the hon. Gentleman raises an important subject. When my party was in opposition, I was a spokesperson on Northern Ireland for a few years. I am far from an expert on the Northern Ireland constitution, but one important element to remember is that what is called cross-community voting applies to passing motions or resolutions in the Northern Ireland Assembly. That means that a resolution has to be supported by a majority of both Unionists and nationalists. I was not expert enough on the workings of the Northern Ireland Assembly and its Standing Orders to draft an amendment that would cover the cross-community voting, but the Government amendment added to the Bill in Committee requiring the consent of the First Minister and Deputy First Minister in Northern Ireland means, in effect, that a majority of Unionists and of nationalists must support the Bill for it to go through. Both the First Minister, Peter Robinson, and the Deputy First Minister, Martin McGuinness, have been given a veto, so even if the Bill is passed by this Parliament, I am far from convinced that it would go any further, as it is odds on that one of those gentlemen would use his veto.
Mr MacNeil
This is a useful amendment, but may I set the hon. Gentleman’s mind at rest by saying that I have a hunch that the First Minister and Deputy First Minister in Scotland might be of a similar mind?
Mr Reid
I share the hon. Gentleman’s view that that is likely to happen in 2016, but the time scale in the Bill is that the decision on whether to proceed to the trial will have to take place before then. However, the next group of amendments relates to what happens after the trial, and the happy circumstances that the hon. Gentleman describes may well have occurred by then and we may well be back to a minority Government in Scotland.
Mr MacNeil
The hon. Gentleman rightly says that I made a similar proposal in Committee to move these things to Scotland. I also tabled an amendment to the Scotland Bill to move these powers to the Scottish Parliament, but did he support me then?
Mr Reid
I voted against the hon. Gentleman’s amendment, as it opened up the possibility of ending up with the time in Scotland being different from that in England. If we accepted his amendment, the Parliament here, legislating for England, could decide to advance time by one hour and it would obviously do so without consulting Scotland. The Scottish Parliament and the Scottish Government would then be presented with a fait accompli. They would have a choice of either having a different time zone in Scotland or copying what had happened in England and advancing time by one hour.
Mr MacNeil
I invite the hon. Gentleman to imagine a scenario in which the Prime Minister behaved in a high-handed manner, as he did last week, and bounced such a measure on Scotland. What would the hon. Gentleman do in such a situation?
Mr Reid
I am extremely grateful to my hon. Friend for that intervention. He shows once again the complete inconsistency of the Scottish Government. One minute, they ask for one thing and, if it is granted, they start huffing and puffing and complaining that the Government here are being anti-Scottish. In fact, the Government here have given the Scottish Government exactly what they asked for.
Mr MacNeil
I have not had a chance to look at the website recently, but is the hon. Gentleman saying that the Conservative Government are pro-Scottish?
Mr Reid
There is no Conservative Government. There is a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition Government and it is very pro-Scottish. That is why my hon. Friend the Minister tabled amendments in Committee to do what the Scottish First Minister had asked and make provisions for consulting the Scottish and Welsh Ministers. I believe that this House should go further than consultation and should allow the Parliaments to have a say in these matters. It is important that Parliaments decide such matters, not Ministers.
Mr MacNeil
Will the hon. Gentleman answer the question I asked earlier? If this House were to bounce an unpopular change of time zone on Scotland, what would the hon. Gentleman do, given that he has ensured that the Scottish Government do not have the powers in their locker to ensure that we do not have a time change that will be very inconvenient, especially in the winter months, bounced on us?
Mr Reid
I have tabled this amendment so that the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly will have to vote before any change goes through. The votes would have to take place before the start of the trial, and my amendment in the next group would mean that the same votes would have to take place after the trial and before the scheme could become permanent. The Government, as the Minister explained, have given the Scottish Government exactly what they asked for, so I do not understand why the hon. Gentleman is complaining.
Mr MacNeil
Of course, if the power were given to Wales, it would not have to be exercised, but it would be a courtesy to give the power anyway. There is great merit and sense in taking that approach.
Mr Reid
Yes, the hon. Gentleman makes an important point, which answers well the point made by the hon. Member for Alyn and Deeside (Mark Tami), who has left the Chamber and did not stay to hear that response. We would be giving the Welsh Assembly a right that they would not have to exercise.
Mr Reid
It would indeed be absurd to have two different time zones within the United Kingdom. Hon. Members representing places such as Berwick and Carlisle would probably agree. I do not think there is any possibility of the Bill allowing that to happen, but it would be silly if it did.
I turn now to the road accident statistics. The surveys that took place at the time of the previous trial 40 years ago were inconclusive. That is not just my opinion. That was the view of the Home Secretary at the time, Reginald Maudling, who said:
“The figures are not clear enough to base a decision upon.”—[Official Report, 2 December 1970; Vol. 807, c. 1335.]
The reason for that is that the breathalyser was introduced at the same time, and there is no way of knowing how much of the fall in road accidents was due to the introduction of the breathalyser. If the fall had been due to the clock going forward an hour, once the experiment was abandoned and we went back to Greenwich mean time in winter, one would have expected the number of road accidents to increase. But that did not happen; it continued to fall. It has continued to fall simply because we design cars better, we have better road traffic legislation and we educate drivers better.
Mr MacNeil
The hon. Gentleman makes a very important point that is often cited. When we look at the data, we see that the graph falls more steeply after the trial, which almost indicates that the trial could have cost lives. Had the trial not occurred, that rapid descent showing the number of people killed in collisions on roads in Great Britain between 1968 and 1971 might have been steeper, meaning that some people who were killed in that period might still be alive today. It is a very serious issue.
Mr Reid
The hon. Gentleman makes an important point. The words of the Home Secretary of the day sum it up best; the outcome was inconclusive.
This point is relevant to the amendment because one figure that came out of the trial was that whereas during that period road deaths in most of country went down, in the north of Scotland, they went up, and it should be borne in mind that even after the introduction of the breathalyser road deaths in the north of Scotland went up. That is important because it shows that there are different impacts in different parts of the United Kingdom. Therefore, amendment 13 is important.
Mr MacNeil
I congratulate the hon. Member for Castle Point (Rebecca Harris). It is rare indeed for a Back Bencher’s Bill to get so far up the parliamentary chain, and she has shown great grace and courtesy in my dealings with her on this issue. Her Bill has perhaps made such progress with the help of the Government, but it is none the less quite an accomplishment. Having said that, I will continue to subject it to intense scrutiny.
I believe that, when people experience the clock change, the head of steam raised by a small but dedicated campaign group will be dramatically outweighed. The 1970 Division in the House was passed by 366 votes to 81, and as I have said, that involved Members not only from Scotland and the SNP but from the north of England and everywhere else. Further south, Portugal has changed back after two experiments. We are in real danger of slipping much further with this; our guard might go down, and we might subject people to an uncomfortable winter.
Having spoken to representatives of the Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents I tabled an amendment to deal with its concerns about safety, although I do not agree with some of its interpretations. However, if tabling the amendment will put the matter to rest, it is worth doing.
My concerns about the clock change are vast. I remain unconvinced about the potential benefits, and the losses are proven. Many of my concerns are based on the data provided by the Lighter Later campaign, which argues that an extra hour of sunlight at the end of the day would be a panacea for the UK’s problems. It claims that people would go outside more, consume less electricity, watch less television, eat better, sleep better, run and swim more, commit fewer crimes, be less afraid to go outside, spend countless billions on tourism and be involved in fewer car accidents. Those projections do not stand up to scrutiny at all, although the change is presented as the greatest thing since sliced bread—
Mr MacNeil
The hon. Gentleman gives me a great opportunity to say that independence will be better than sliced bread.
Mr Chope
Has the hon. Gentleman seen this little postcard-sized piece of paper, which claims that the Bill would
“boost the economy, make the nation happier, save lives, save carbon”?
It goes on to say: “Save the date”. Is not that an example of the gross exaggeration that the supporters of the Bill are using in their tactics to get people to support it?
Mr MacNeil
The hon. Gentleman mentions the claim that the provisions would “make the nation happier”. As a result of information that I received from Portugal, it occurred to me yesterday that a measure of happiness might be a country’s divorce rate. So I got my researchers, Christopher Mullins-Silverstein and Xavier Solano, to approach the House of Commons Library and ask for the UK’s divorce rate figures during the trial period from 1968 to 1970. There was a small but significant spike in the divorce rate, which fell back down again after the trial period was over. I am not sure whether the divorce rate is an indicator of happiness—I suppose it could be argued either way—but it certainly went up at that time. Perhaps the morning irritability that I have mentioned was present at the breakfast tables of the United Kingdom, and perhaps it tipped a few people over—
Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Nigel Evans)
Order. I hate to interfere with the hon. Gentleman’s pursuit of happiness, but I think that we have got the gist of his argument. We understand that he is against the Bill, but I wonder which amendment he is speaking to at the moment.
Mr MacNeil
I am speaking to amendment 17, Mr Deputy Speaker. I think it important to set the context of the amendment, and that is what I am doing. Claims are made on one side and claims are made on the other, but I am a reasonable, generous and conciliatory man—[Hon. Members: “Hear, hear.”] I thank my colleagues for that. I am prepared to inconvenience myself and give a little. I do not have an “all or nothing” mindset, and I have warned the Lighter Later supporters from the outset that if they take an “all or nothing” approach, they are likely to end up getting nothing. The olive branch is still extended.
Jacob Rees-Mogg
I wonder whether my hon. Friend has considered fully the problem of the European Union’s not allowing us to proceed with the amendment under its directive. Does he feel that a “notwithstanding” clause might have been helpful to overrule the European Communities Act 1972?
Mr MacNeil
I think that European directives and rules are often perceived as guidelines by the continental and the Celtic mind, and—if I may be so bold—as commandments by the Anglo-Saxon mind. If we really intend to investigate the safety issues, a European directive should not be seen as a commandment that can override all such considerations.
Jacob Rees-Mogg
I wonder further whether my hon. Friend thinks that if we did have a big fight with Brussels over this, it would increase the happiness of the nation.
Mr MacNeil
That is a very interesting question. Debate, discussion and arguments can of course be invigorating, and can cause serotonin and other useful hormones to flow through the body. The hon. Gentleman may be on to something. I am sure that a considerable constituency in the country would be greatly cheered by a fight with Europe—myself included, certainly when it comes to fishing issues.
Let me return to the amendment, Mr Deputy Speaker. One of my main complaints is that most of the data used by the campaigns are based on simulations and estimates. Dr Elizabeth Garnsey, author of the report on daylight saving that has been used by Lighter Later, has said:
“the data that are being used in the BRE report are simulated data. They are illustrative data—that is, invented data. When you do a simulation of that kind your outputs are going to represent the input assumptions that you made.”
In many senses, those data might not be real. However, I shall try to use only empirical data to prove my point.
The hon. Member for Christchurch (Mr Chope) was very concerned with the issue of happiness, as, indeed, was the hon. Member for North East Somerset (Jacob Rees-Mogg). I hope that I have pronounced his constituency correctly, as he pronounces mine so well: I hope that I have used the correct Somerset intonations.
On the issue of depression and sunlight, those leading the change campaign have said that more light in the evening can help to abate seasonal affective disorder and depression, using a 1993 study to prove their case. However, Professor Michael Terman, a PhD who works in the Department of Psychiatry at Columbia University in America, conducted a study this year that proved the exact opposite, and his findings were supported by Dr Malcolm von Schantz of the University of Surrey. Dr Terman found that darker mornings lead to increased depression, because the body’s natural clock needs morning sunlight in order to operate properly.
Iain Stewart
The hon. Gentleman has raised an important point. Many people in my constituency, which is in the south-east of England, commute to London daily. Indeed, I was a daily commuter myself before I was elected. In the winter, doing both journeys in the dark is a pretty miserable experience, and I fear that the time change would subject more commuters to more misery in the winter.
Mr MacNeil
It is not just crofters in the outer Hebrides about whom I worry; I worry about the commuters of Milton Keynes as well. We are talking about human experiences, and it was not the people of the outer Hebrides who were responsible for the reversal of the time change; it was the good people of Milton Keynes, who were experiencing that particular misery over three winters. We should bear it in mind that the Bill commits us to at least 15 months of really dark winters, although I hope that my amendment will get around that to some extent.
To use the obvious example, how do we feel when we have to get out of bed on a dark and dreary morning, rather than when the sun is up? Our entire mood is changed because of the lack of sunlight. If the clocks are changed, nearly all of us will have to wake up and go out in the dark for a longer period of the year. As I said earlier, Portuguese children were found to be irritable and have poor attention, and according to the national association of teachers many fell asleep in the classroom. It is worth noting that this is damaging to young people’s education and that divorce rates increase significantly, so even an experiment has dangerous consequences for many people. On energy consumption, we have heard from Lighter Later that there could be serious energy cost savings as a result of people not needing to consume energy in the evenings. As I stated on Second Reading, this is erroneous, because people would need to turn on appliances on colder, darker winter mornings.
Dr Whiteford
I am concerned about the winter morning issue. Last week my heating in London broke down and I did not even notice because the temperature here is so much higher than it is in more northerly parts. I think people would put on their heating during the coldest part of the night and also when energy is at its most expensive, which will have an impact on not only energy consumption but fuel poverty.
Mr MacNeil
My hon. Friend makes a good point. I know that the cold in Banff and Buchan is balanced only by the warm hearts of its people, and certainly by their good sense in yet again returning an SNP Member. Her points are well made and serious, and indeed they are backed up not only by her own experience, but by evidence from Indiana in the United States and from Portugal. The phones have been busy between my office and Portugal in the last wee while. Mr Rui Agostinho, director of Lisbon’s astronomical observatory, the institution responsible for legal time in Portugal, has said that a company contracted by the European Commission at the time showed that the energy savings gained were ultimately lost with the increase of energy consumption during the morning.
Bob Stewart
Look, we have listened to this all morning. It is clear that we are not absolutely certain what would be the result of a change. Is it not terribly important for us to check by having a trial to determine whether we would actually save more lives and save more energy? All this talk should stop and we should just vote on it now and have the trial.
Mr MacNeil
I admire the hon. and gallant Gentleman’s headlong enthusiasm, but we must reflect before plunging ourselves into 15 months of misery. It can be seriously argued that the change in the late ’60s and early ’70s cost lives, because the rate of road accident deaths did not go down as quickly during that period as it did in subsequent years. If I have to repeat myself again and again before that is understood, I will do so. If we disregard such a serious fact and run to a trial, surely we are putting people in danger.
Mr MacNeil
Many people would welcome the study for a number of reasons, and that organisation would welcome it because it would enable it to get the data. I am just saying that it looks as if the period for getting the data would itself be dangerous.
Jacob Rees-Mogg
Is not the obvious answer to the Minister that the Government could carry out a study any day of the week they felt like and do not need an Act of Parliament to do so?
Mr MacNeil
I thank the hon. Gentleman for a good point, well made.
Although some organisations might want the data to be gathered, the unfortunate side of gathering it is that the rest of us would be living in a laboratory.
Having seen, from looking at the graph in front of me, the line go down less steeply during the experiment than it did afterwards, and the significant change just afterwards, I cannot commit to an entire 15-month period. Being a reasonable man, however, I have looked on the ROSPA website, and the most dangerous month is November, so we should change the clocks, as my amendment seeks, from the end of October to the end of November.
Mr Tom Harris
The hon. Gentleman shows a welcome, if surprising, flexibility, but does he not concede the principle of the Bill, which is to have a trial period to gather evidence? If he does concede that, we are really arguing only about periods of time, and surely a longer period will enable us to gather more evidence on which to make a long-term decision.
Mr MacNeil
I say that we should have a series of Novembers. As I have said, I am a conciliatory man, and I have extended an olive branch. Rather than plunge areas of the country north of Manchester into darkness for two months a year, with no sunrise before 9 am, I say, okay, there is an ongoing argument for gathering data, so let us gather data in November, the most dangerous month, instead of over five months of winter and for 15 months in total. We could reduce the inconvenience to 20%, and I am fairly confident that, once we introduce those three months, once we have the attendant misery and once we see what comes of that, lighter evenings will not be seen to have such great benefits after all. We will get the taste of the inconvenience without going through the utter misery of an entire winter period.
Bob Stewart
Why is the hon. Member for the islands of Scotland, where I, too, came from once, confident that the month of November will give him the results that he expects? He does not know, and the best way of finding out is to have a flipping trial.
Jacob Rees-Mogg
On a point of order, Mr Deputy Speaker. Will you rule on whether the word—if I may utter it myself—“flipping” is parliamentary?
Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Nigel Evans)
Do you know, I think that that word is on the cusp—a bit. It offended me, a little, but I must say that in the heat of the moment I have heard a lot worse in this place.
Mr MacNeil
If the hon. Member for Beckenham (Bob Stewart), who advocated European harmonisation earlier, curbs his enthusiasm and goes to the ROSPA website, he will find that the month of November is the most dangerous month. It is by studying what ROSPA says that I have introduced the amendment.
Mr MacNeil
If the clocks were to change on St Andrew’s day, giving us an extra hour on that day, we might have a 25-hour St Andrew’s day, which would probably be welcome, and—who knows?—I might get some form of promotion from the Scottish Government owing to my initiative of introducing a longer, 25-hour St Andrew’s day.
I am looking for an opportunity, and the glass is half full. By extending this olive branch, I am presenting a half-full glass and an opportunity for the trial, with the other attendant benefits, but the concern that must be listened to most is the safety concern. It is not dealt with by the data, and it was certainly not dealt with by the graph after the trial in the 1970s. Indeed, the trial may have cost lives, so let us have only a three-month period of danger, rather than a 15-month one.
Mark Lazarowicz
I have tried to take all the amendments seriously and at face value. However, I suggest to the hon. Gentleman that it is odd for his party, which is so keen on the European Union, as indeed am I, to want the change of time to take place on a different date from that in the rest of the European Union, which, as we have heard, decided on a common date for changing time, following the example of the UK.
Mr MacNeil
I hear the hon. Gentleman’s concern, but he is again looking for difficulties, whereas I look for opportunities and solutions in life. As I have said, I do not think that European Union directives should be seen as commandments. Surely it is not beyond the wit of man for European Union directives, which were constructed in a room by individuals, to be amended or improved. Surely the point of European directives—although perhaps experience shows otherwise—is that they should aid and improve our lives. If a European directive is causing difficulty in our lives, we should ask our Government to go to Europe to change it. We could then test out this measure and have some resolution. Rather than having 15 months of misery, changing the European directive could make the period shorter.
Mark Lazarowicz
The issue is not with a European directive. The fact is that the time difference between Scotland and the rest of the UK and Europe would change in October, and then travel and airline times would change again a month later. This is about the inconvenience for travellers, not about a directive or matters of principle.
Mr MacNeil
When the hon. Gentleman mentions Europe, perhaps he should consider a comparison between Paris and London, which are reasonably close to each other geographically. Paris has lighter evenings, but it has a higher accident rate. The factor of daylight does not appear to be the overriding factor in road safety; there are many other factors. The point is made time and again that the extra hour of daylight will be a panacea for road traffic deaths.
Mr Reid
The European directive is important because in the days before it, ferry and airline timetables were full of footnotes about countries changing their clocks at different times. The hon. Gentleman’s amendments are also important in starting a consultation. After the consultation, if the consensus is for the change that he suggests, the Minister could then go to Brussels to negotiate it.
Mr MacNeil
There is eminent sense in the approach of talking, rather than rushing headlong into a miserable trial. That is where the real danger is.
In the period when the clocks were not put back in winter, the decline in the number of road deaths slowed. If last winter we had gone back to the number of road deaths that we had in the winter of the trial period between’68 and ’71, there would have been three times the number of road deaths. We also now have faster cars and more cars on the road. The argument on safety, which is made with an air of moral certainty, has to be taken on and the data must be challenged. I hope that that is what I am doing. I do not like the moralising tone that is sometimes used towards me when I am looking after the interests of my constituents and the interests of young children and their education, particularly as those arguments are eminently challengeable.
Mr Offord
The hon. Gentleman is correct about the causal links in the accident rate. In my time at Barnet council, I oversaw a 40% reduction in the number of people killed or seriously injured. That had nothing to do with light or darkness; it was to do with removing speed humps and reconfiguring road junctions. It was those policies that reduced the KSIs in my area.
Mr MacNeil
The hon. Gentleman makes a good point. There is a danger that we will be distracted from the more important road safety issues if we imagine that the extra hour is a panacea. The measures that he mentions are probably far more important than the light at a particular hour, which is distracting far too many people when there are safety measures that need to be used.
I am struck by the fact that road deaths fell by 300 between the winter of 2009 and the winter of 2010-11. Had the moves in the previous Parliament to have lighter evenings during the winter succeeded, a causal link would have been drawn between the lighter evenings and the drop in deaths. As we now know, that reduction in deaths happened anyway, with darker evenings. It is dangerous to make assumptions and links between lighter evenings and deaths on the roads, particularly as the rate of deaths decreased immediately after the study of the late 1960s and the ’70s. Perhaps that study delayed the rate of the decrease.
I move back to energy. The data used to support the changes seem to have a serious flaw. The campaign’s main source of data is 24 studies on the effect of lighter evenings. Of those 24, only six were empirical studies and the rest were simulations. The paper examining them found that 15 studies concluded that there were energy savings. Of those 15, approximately two were empirical studies and 10 were simulations. The odd thing about the simulations is that they showed savings of 0.2% and 2%, and another study showed a saving of 0%. Surely a 0% saving could also be called a 0% loss. The information that we have from Indiana, Portugal and elsewhere shows that energy would be lost, not saved, if the change was made, and there would not be safety gains.
As for tourism, my amendment suggesting that the studies be carried out in November would ensure that it could not benefit from another month of “lighter later”. That would be a perfect compromise for many of us who need to find consensus, extend an olive branch and find middle ground. I fear that an all-or-nothing campaign would yield exactly nothing.
Mr Davey
These amendments address the role of the devolved Administrations, and I therefore think it would assist the debate if I explained how the Bill’s provisions would affect the devolution settlements.
The subject of time zones is devolved in respect of Northern Ireland but reserved in respect of Scotland and Wales. However, as I have said before, the Government believe that the issue requires UK-wide consensus. The Government will consult the Welsh and Scottish Governments fully on any proposed trial or any proposal to make a trial permanent. The Government would not expect to proceed with a trial if, following those consultations, there was clear opposition from any part of the country.
While we are on the subject of devolution I will say that I believe there may have been some confusion in Committee about the position regarding legislative consent motions of the Northern Ireland Assembly. Such a motion is required in respect of this Bill, not in respect of a daylight saving order. The motion is required before the Bill completes its parliamentary passage. We approached the Northern Ireland Administration about taking the matter forward, and the Government’s continued support for the Bill depends upon the legislative consent motion being passed in due course. That will have no effect on the Bill’s provision requiring the agreement of the Office of the First Minister and Deputy First Minister in Northern Ireland, which reflects the point that time is devolved in respect of Northern Ireland.
As I said, the position of the Bill reflects the devolution settlement. Consultation with the devolved Executives is common, and it is appropriate in this instance. It would allow for discussion to take place on the issues involved and on any concerns. Moreover, the devolved Governments are accountable to their legislatures.
Mr MacNeil
The Minister and I discussed this matter back and forward at some length in Committee. Given the measures that he is outlining, would it be possible for the Government here in Westminster to override the wishes of the Scottish Government?
Mr Davey
We have made it clear that that is not our intention, and that we will listen to all parts of the United Kingdom. We would not expect to proceed if there were clear opposition from other parts of the UK. The devolved Governments may wish to put the matter before their Parliament or Assembly, but that would be a matter for them. For that reason, we think that amendment 13, tabled by my hon. Friend the Member for Argyll and Bute (Mr Reid), is inappropriate. We consider it a matter for the devolved Administrations.
On amendments 16 and 17, my hon. Friend talked about changing the dates of summer time, but I have dealt with those issues in previous debates.
Mr Davey
No.
The Bill also provides for the devolved Executives to be consulted about any proposals to increase the trial period, and their views will be fully taken into account. The power to lengthen the trial will be available from the date of the report, and if the report indicated that a longer trial was necessary, that power could be exercised to lengthen the trial before the devolved Executives gave their view on whether to have a trial. That means that they would know then about the trial’s expected length, so the amendment that suggests otherwise misses the point.
Asking for reports from the First Ministers, as proposed in amendment 38, is neither necessary nor appropriate. The Secretary of State will monitor the effects of the order for the whole country, and is the person best placed to do so, but the First Ministers would, of course, be welcome to submit anything that they might wish for the Secretary of State to consider. It would not be appropriate for the House, through this Bill, to require any report from the First Ministers or to impose any costs on them. After all, they are devolved Administrations.
Mr MacNeil
Would the devolved Administrations have full access to the data on which the report was based? Furthermore, we are getting Government policy from the Minister but I would be much more comfortable if it was written into the Bill.
Mr Davey
Of course, the devolved Administrations will have access to the report and the data on which it was based. That is how the Government have approached the whole issue. We have worked hard to get consensus at this stage, because we want consensus at all stages. I hope that the hon. Gentleman accepts that assurance. I have checked the record of the Committee stage, and it appears that I made it clear on no fewer than 13 separate occasions that the Government would not expect to carry out a trial or make any change if there was clear opposition from any part of the country. I hope that that reassures my hon. Friend the Member for Argyll and Bute and other right hon. and hon. Members. It is clear that we want consensus.
Mr MacNeil
Does my hon. Friend feel, as I do, that the safeguards that we are looking for are a way of fixing the goalposts? At the moment, there is a danger—the Minister refused to say that it was not possible—that the Government might renege, change their mind, choose another policy or override Scotland. We just want the goalposts fixed so that we know the terms of reference. Then we could move on quite happily.
Dr Whiteford
That is right, and I agree.
I will conclude my remarks, because I know that other people want to speak. Ultimately, it is a quality of life issue. One thing that struck me after the last debate on the Bill was that a huge number of people from England, mostly older people who remember the last trial, got in touch with me by letter, phone or e-mail. They all said the same thing: “This was a disaster when they did it in the ’70s.” They found it miserable getting up, going to work and delivering things in the dark. People who remember it did not like it. Ultimately, that has to be our arbiter: is this going to be helpful for our quality of life? I know that it is going to impact more on my part of the world than some other parts of these islands. For the sake of our health and well-being, we need to think carefully before messing around with something that might not need to be changed.
Mr MacNeil
While our debate has continued, another issue that I had not considered has been brought to my attention—that the provisions are anti-working mothers. A woman, Mrs Marybell Galbraith, who lived in Glasgow with her children in the ’60s, e-mailed me to say:
“My children and myself suffered from this”—
Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Nigel Evans)
Order. We are supposed to be debating the amendment tabled by Mr Philip Davies, which has nothing to do with the point that the hon. Gentleman is trying to make.
Philip Davies
That is very helpful. I feared that my hon. Friend was going in that direction, so I would certainly wish to press amendment 30 to a vote as it encapsulates the flavour of the lead amendment and would make that requirement clear in the Bill.
The Bill says that the Secretary of State
“must consult the Scottish Ministers and the Welsh Ministers.”
That is slightly ambiguous, and I hope the Minister will confirm that the Scottish Ministers and Welsh Ministers are the Ministers in the Welsh Assembly and the Scottish Parliament and not the Ministers in the Scotland Office and the Wales Office. It would be perverse if the Secretary of State was consulting another Secretary of State to get something through that the Government wanted. I hope that the Government would be consulting a different body—the Scottish Parliament or the Welsh Assembly—but that is not entirely clear from the Bill or from the glossary of terms at the back of it.
Mr MacNeil
The hon. Gentleman’s remark about the European Union reminded me of how things change in politics. I can remember in the last Parliament the Liberal Democrats walking out of the Chamber on the question of an in/out referendum. Now, the people who led that have found themselves in government and things have changed. Things could change again, which is why we need guarantees rather than intentions. We need the goalposts to be fixed so that we know exactly where we all stand.
Philip Davies
I agree and I am pleased that the hon. Gentleman clearly supports my amendment. Our job in this House is to ensure that we have proper safeguards in place, based not on wishy-washy assurances but on provisions on the face of the Bill. We do not want to find that when we have passed something we have been sold a pup on an issue that is too important to the future of the United Kingdom for a decision to be based merely on assurances. I do not want to go on as I do not want to test the patience of the House or of my hon. Friend the Member for Castle Point because she has conducted herself so well and I do not want to scupper the chances of our debating the next group of amendments. On that basis, I shall leave my comments there, but I want to make it clear that if the my hon. Friend the Member for Argyll and Bute withdraws his amendment I would like to pursue my amendment 30, which is the second amendment in this group.