Economic Responsibility and a Plan for Growth
(Limited Text - Ministerial Extracts only)
Read Full debate16:00 - The House having divided: - Ayes: 223 / Noes: 0 - Question accordingly agreed to.
The Financial Secretary to the Treasury (Andrew Griffith)
Our constituents are worried about what the current global turbulence in the economy means for their jobs, their prospects and their families. They want to know that they can afford to get by, and that once the economic storm clouds have passed—which they will—they can thrive. It is these concerns, those of our constituents, that we are thinking about, rather than—I say this in all due seriousness to the hon. Member for Leeds West (Rachel Reeves), because I think she knows better—misrepresenting global trends. We are focused on protecting the most vulnerable and looking after our economy.
Mr Holden
I wonder whether my hon. Friend noted, as I did, how little was said about the real cause of the current issues in the global markets: Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, driving energy prices up across the globe, driving inflation up across the globe, and driving interest rates up. There was no mention of that from the Opposition. Whose side are they on when it comes to these situations? It is clear to me that they are not paying attention to the real issues underlying the global markets, and they do not understand what is going on.
Andrew Griffith
My hon. Friend has made a very important point. I think the whole House will want to acknowledge not only the impact on our economy of covid and the measures that Members on both sides of the House supported, but Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. It does us a great disservice to try to be over-partisan about the impacts of global trends that are happening in every western economy.
Dame Meg Hillier (Hackney South and Shoreditch) (Lab/Co-op)
The Minister has a strong track record of being knowledgeable about finance in the private sector, so will he acknowledge that the mini-Budget caused huge chaos in the markets? Notwithstanding the international issues which are a backdrop to this, this Government have scored an own goal by making the position a hell of a lot worse. Surely the Minister, with his financial background, will acknowledge that.
Andrew Griffith
The Chair of the Public Accounts Committee has made some fair points. We have acknowledged that mistakes have been made—the Prime Minister herself has said that—and I am happy to say it in the spirit in which the hon. Lady acknowledges that there are wider factors at work in the economy. It ill behoves the House to make those over-partisan points when our constituents are looking to us collectively for what we are able to do.
Andrew Griffith
I will make a little progress and then come back to hon. Members, if I may.
The most important thing we can do now, in the national interest, is cement that financial and economic stability. That is what is vital for all those who are concerned about their jobs, those who have to pay their mortgages, and those who are saving for retirement. It is essential for businesses investing for the future, and for society as we get through the bout of rising prices.
Margaret Greenwood (Wirral West) (Lab)
Last month the Bank of England had to step in with a promise to buy up to £65 billion of Government debt after pension funds managing huge sums on behalf of retired people across the country came close to collapse amid an unprecedented meltdown in UK Government bond markets following the Government’s mini-Budget. Last week the Bank had to step in again. BT’s pension scheme has revealed that the value of its assets has plummeted by an estimated £11 billion in recent weeks. Will the Minister apologise for the chaos that his party has brought to the pensions sector, and what can he say to my constituents to reassure them that their pensions are actually safe?
Andrew Griffith
I think we all have constituents who are rightly worried in these times of global turbulence and increasing interest rates in every part of the world. The hon. Lady will forgive me, I hope, if I do not comment on the specific operations of the Bank of England, which I think would be inappropriate—other than thanking hard-working officials for the intervention that they have made over the last couple of weeks.
Andrew Griffith
I will give way one more time, and then, if Members will forgive me, I will make some progress.
Mr Perkins
I am grateful to the Minister.
Of course global factors meant that the situation was dangerous, but will the Minister acknowledge that it is precisely because of those global factors that the new Prime Minister and Chancellor had to tread very, very carefully? That is why what they did was so reckless and so damaging.
Andrew Griffith
I am not sure that I can fully accept what the hon. Member says, but the Government are committed to the independence of our institutions. It is very important that people understand that. Both the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility have a valuable role to play, which is why when the Chancellor presents his forecast to the House in just eight parliamentary days’ time he will ensure that it has been fully presented to, and signed off by, the Office for Budget Responsibility.
John Glen (Salisbury) (Con)
I recognise the value of stability and predictability. Given the changes to the corporation tax rate, and given that under the previous Administration my right hon. Friend the Member for Richmond (Yorks) (Rishi Sunak) was going to reduce the bank corporation tax surcharge from 8% to 3%, could the Minister confirm the Government’s intentions, and the assessment made of the effect for banks on competitiveness in financial services?
Andrew Griffith
I thank my hon. Friend, and pay tribute to my right hon. Friend the Member for Richmond (Yorks) (Rishi Sunak) for all that he did to put the economy in a strong position, and to navigate the very difficult shoals of the unprecedented covid pandemic.
Andrew Griffith
I will make a little progress and then give way. As the Chancellor said, at this point all measures remain on the table. My hon. Friend the Member for Salisbury (John Glen) will indulge me if I do not announce that policy at the Dispatch Box today. His point is well understood, and others have made it to me, as Financial Secretary.
John Glen
May I simply point out that, if the rate is retained as an 8% surcharge, banks will be paying 33%? When added to the employment costs for national insurance, they may have issues in terms of competitiveness. If that is necessary, could the Minister please make it clear to banks and the markets, so that they can plan for the future?
Andrew Griffith
As I said a moment ago, we have just eight sitting days now until the statement. Part of my role is to stay in very close touch with our highly valued banking community, and to continue to drive the competitiveness of the United Kingdom as a place for the financial services sector to make the prodigious contribution to the economy that Conservative Members particularly value. As the Chancellor said, we will continue to prioritise fiscal stability, and the United Kingdom will always pay its way. We will fund our promises, and we remain committed to fiscal discipline. That means that we will do whatever is necessary to ensure that debt as a share of the economy comes down in the medium term.
Rushanara Ali
I know that the Minister is relatively new to the job; I hope that he lasts longer than some of his predecessors. The Bank of England has made it clear that the mini-Budget has caused a material risk to the UK’s financial stability. As has been said, our constituents’ mortgages have gone up, and will be going up by £500, and by up to £900 in London and the south-east. Will he tell us what his Government will do to bring down those mortgages rates, many of which will be a direct consequence of the mini-Budget’s failures and fiasco?
Andrew Griffith
I was in the process of telling the hon. Lady exactly what the Government will do. No one should trivialise the impact of rising global interest rates on mortgages. The last time mortgages were at this level was under her Government, and not after the backdrop of a global pandemic and a war on European soil.
Andrew Griffith
No, I think I have been relatively generous in taking interventions from the Opposition. I will make some progress, because I am sure that many people would like to speak. As the House knows, we will publish the medium-term fiscal plan, which will be fully reported on by the OBR and will set out our approach to fiscal responsibility: the variable that we can control in Government to help to reduce rates of interest going forward. We remain committed to pursuing growth as the driver of prosperity for all.
Anna Firth (Southend West) (Con)
Does my hon. Friend agree that the Government’s policy of creating investment zones will boost business and create jobs—for hard-working people in Southend West, I hope, and across the country? It is the essence of financial responsibility, and will put us on the path to long-term growth and long-term financial health.
Andrew Griffith
My hon. Friend the new Member for Southend West makes a very important point. We are absolutely committed to investment zones. I wish her success in her campaign to attract one to Southend-on-Sea. As the Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities has noted, this will be a transformational programme for the whole United Kingdom, and I hope that many Opposition Members get behind it and seek to attract such zones to their own constituencies.
We are continuing to deliver support for families by cutting national insurance, and we will save an average of £330 for 28 million hard-working people. We will deliver reforms to boost housing supply and accelerate infrastructure projects across the country, enabling growth where it is needed the most.
James Cartlidge
Last week, we considered the Health and Social Care Levy (Repeal) Bill. I spoke in the debate, and said that I hoped that the repeal would not lead to the cap on social care being watered down. As I understand it, the cap may now be delayed or even not come into force at all. We should all be very concerned about that. One of the greatest achievements of the previous Prime Minister was finally introducing a tangible policy on social care. Does the Minister accept that when we repealed the levy it would have been better had we known then that it would have a material impact on social care policy?
Andrew Griffith
My hon. Friend makes his point typically strongly. He, like me, will look forward to hearing the medium-term fiscal strategy shortly. The hon. Member for Bethnal Green and Bow (Rushanara Ali) asked what we will do to protect households with their interest rates and mortgages.
Andrew Griffith
I will not give way at the moment. The difficult decisions that were taken by the Chancellor earlier this week will ensure that we continue to grow the economy. Those decisions will raise around £32 billion every year. Perhaps the Opposition will use the opportunity of the debate to enlighten the House, but to date they have said very little about how they would find the money to do that.
Andrew Griffith
Not at the moment.
That brings me to our energy price guarantee, which is a landmark policy that will help millions of people to get through this most difficult winter. Independent and external forecasts expect it to reduce inflation by around five percentage points. It is one of the most generous schemes in the world, and was the biggest single expense in the growth plan, with an estimated cost of around £60 billion between now and the end of March.
Edward Timpson (Eddisbury) (Con)
I think the whole House and many of our constituents can support the energy price guarantee and support scheme, but in constituencies such as mine many households are off-grid. Although there is a separate scheme, there is an issue of dual use on a single site. To ensure that there is parity and equity in rolling through that scheme, will the Minister undertake to ensure that there is an ongoing review, to ensure that none of my constituents misses out on the forthcoming generous support from the Government?
Andrew Griffith
Just like the constituents of Arundel and South Downs, I do not want the constituents of Eddisbury to face any prejudice. My hon. Friend makes his point well, and I am sure that the Energy Minister will be listening.
Alan Brown (Kilmarnock and Loudoun) (SNP)
If the so-called energy price guarantee will reduce inflation by 4% or 5%, what will inflation go to in April 2023 when the Government remove it?
Andrew Griffith
I was citing external forecasts, rather than making forecasts of where energy prices in an unprecedented moment of global volatility will be six months hence. Maybe the hon. Member has a greater insight into that.
Andrew Griffith
No. Treasury officials will lead a review regarding the appropriate measures to support households and businesses with their energy needs beyond April, but without the taxpayer picking up an inappropriate share of the burden.
Dr Luke Evans (Bosworth) (Con)
The energy plan means that the most vulnerable get up to £1,200 in support. When it comes to the review in April, will the Minister ensure that the most vulnerable people are again at the forefront of getting that support?
Andrew Griffith
No, I am going to make some progress.
I have talked about the measures that we are taking to support growth, and about the tough decisions that the Chancellor spoke about in the House on Monday. I reiterate that, as we must not sugar coat it. In common with every other major economy, we face economic challenges at this time for three reasons.
First, there is the cost of covid. Through the first two years of the pandemic, the Government borrowed more than £300 billion more than had been forecast in March 2020—about £260 billion more in 2020-21 and £70 billion more in 2021-22—to fund emergency covid support, which had support on both sides of the House.
Secondly, interest rates are rising around the world on the back of increased costs and Putin’s war in Ukraine.
Jerome Mayhew (Broadland) (Con)
We recently heard that inflation in this country has risen to 10.1%, but is the Minister aware that the European Union reported its inflation figures this morning, and inflation in the eurozone has risen to 10.9%?
Andrew Griffith
My hon. Friend is absolutely right. I was aware of that, and inflation is 11% in Germany and 17% in the Netherlands. I hope that the hon. Member for Leeds West is listening, because we are seeing this phenomenon in all major developed economies. She has a background in economics, and I hope she can devote some of her energy to sharing her wisdom and insight with colleagues.
When it comes to interest rates, the Federal Reserve has implemented three consecutive increases of three quarters of a basis point, and the European Central Bank has increased rates at its last two meetings, including its largest ever single rate hike in September. As we hear contributions from Opposition Members, I hope that we will hear a little more about the broader context and a little less about attributing the situation to this Government.
Mike Amesbury (Weaver Vale) (Lab)
I thank the Minister for being generous with his time. If it is all the fault of the global economy, why was the 38-day Chancellor sacked?
Andrew Griffith
The hon. Gentleman is generous with his comments. In fairness, it is not the Government’s position that it is all the fault of the global economy, which is why the Prime Minister apologised and changed her Chancellor, and why different, difficult decisions have been made. In the spirit of having a proper debate on these matters, I hope the hon. Gentleman will accept that I was not saying what he suggests. I was introducing, and will continue to introduce, the very important broader context of these economic issues.
Several hon. Members rose—
Andrew Griffith
I am going to finish as quickly as I can.
I have already said that difficult decisions will have to be made. Those decisions will never be made at the expense of the most vulnerable, and I welcome the fact that my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister today reconfirmed at the Dispatch Box our commitment to protecting the triple lock, which was noticeably not forthcoming from the Opposition Front Bench.
The fact is that since the 2008 financial crisis we have all been held back by weak economic growth. For 14 years, people’s living standards—especially the living standards of the most vulnerable, whom the Opposition claim to talk about—have not been rising as quickly as they should have been. The bottom line is that by accepting the status quo, without taking any action at all, we would condemn ourselves and future generations in Britain to decline.
We face challenges, but we should address them from a place of optimism. I remind Members that the fundamentals of the UK economy remain resilient, with unemployment at its lowest level in nearly 50 years and with the UK forecast to have the fastest growth in the G7 in 2022. We have incredible strengths.
I met investors this morning, and they talked about the capital they want to put to work in the United Kingdom, in science, research and technology. We have some of the world’s best universities, and those who would underestimate and talk down our prospects should not forget that we have one wonderful thing: the British people. With credibility and conviction, we are going to deliver the roads, railways and broadband we need. We will recruit the best doctors, empower the best teachers and back the bravest soldiers. And when conditions allow, when it is consistent with sound public finances, we will continue to cut taxes to further unleash economic growth.
A few weeks ago, the Government took a bold approach to resetting our ambition for the growth rate of the economy, protecting our public services and delivering sustainably low taxes. That remains the most important challenge of our time. The question earlier this week was whether we would take action to protect the economy or whether we would not. Our response should leave nobody in any doubt that we are a Government who choose action in the national interest.
Several hon. Members rose—
The Chief Secretary to the Treasury (Edward Argar)
I think I last stood at this Dispatch Box about three months ago, so it is a privilege to close this debate on behalf of the Government. I welcome the kind words from the shadow Chief Secretary, the right hon. Member for Wolverhampton South East (Mr McFadden). I suspect, knowing him as I do, that he will be tough in his challenges, with, as we have seen, a suitably dry delivery and sense of humour, but I have huge respect for him, as he knows. I have yet to be treated to his singing voice—sadly, we were not just then—but on a future occasion he might be tempted.
I thank all hon. and right hon. Members for their contributions. The debate has understandably invited the expression of strong views on the part of all Members who have spoken. That is because economic stability is not just about abstract numbers and graphs. As the shadow Chief Secretary knows, I am nothing if not a pragmatist. This is about our constituents, our families, our friends and our neighbours, and it matters. As the Chancellor set out to the House on Monday:
“Behind the decisions we take and the issues on which we vote are jobs that families depend on, mortgages that have to be paid, savings for pensioners, and businesses investing for the future.”—[Official Report, 17 October 2022; Vol. 720, c. 395.]
Sometimes those decisions are difficult or, indeed, very difficult, as the Chancellor acknowledged. We know we need to do more to give certainty to the markets about our fiscal plans, and we have. I am clear, as is my right hon. Friend the Chancellor and, indeed, the Prime Minister, that we need to prioritise the needs of the most vulnerable, and we will.
We also know that the long-term economic wellbeing of this country relies on our achieving sustainable growth. In the coming weeks and months, responsibly and sustainably, we will continue that urgent mission. Indeed, the reason the United Kingdom has always succeeded is that, at big and difficult moments, we have taken tough decisions in the long-term interest of the country. When conditions allow, when it is consistent with sound public finances, we will seek to cut taxes to support further economic growth.
I remind the House that, since 2010, the United Kingdom has seen the third highest real GDP growth rate in the G7, increasing by more than Germany, France, Japan and Italy. The UK is forecast to be the fastest growing economy in the G7 in 2022. We have a strong labour market with the lowest unemployment rate in almost 50 years, which gives genuine grounds for optimism about our long-term prospects for growth.
Simon Hoare (North Dorset) (Con)
I warmly welcome my right hon. Friend to his place. He has used the word “pragmatism.” The shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury was on the money with regard to the folly of applying ideology when the circumstances do not allow it. Will my right hon. Friend, from the Dispatch Box, give both the country and the House confidence that good, old-fashioned Tory pragmatism and common sense—people can call it Treasury orthodoxy if they wish—are back at the helm?
Edward Argar
I have just set out where we are and what the Prime Minister and the Chancellor have said about the approach we are adopting. It is my firm belief, and the Chancellor’s firm belief, that we wish to be a tax-cutting Government, but that must be done from a basis of sustainability. When taxes are cut sustainably, we see behaviours change that help to generate investment and growth, which is what the Prime Minister and the Chancellor seek.
Edward Argar
I will make some progress on the contributions made by hon. and right hon. Members. I will address the right hon. Gentleman’s contribution, and he may then want to come back to me.
The concerns expressed by the SNP spokesman, the hon. Member for Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey (Drew Hendry), about economic turmoil are a little rich, given that his party seeks to impose the chaos, turmoil and economic cost of another referendum on Scotland, being unable to accept the democratic decision of the Scottish people in the last referendum.
On the most vulnerable, I highlight to the hon. Gentleman and, indeed, other hon. and right hon. Members the £37 billion of support that has been made available across the United Kingdom to support people with the cost of living. The SNP’s prospectus, set out a few days ago, on what independence would mean is a recipe for chaos and turmoil for the people of Scotland.
I am extremely pleased to see my hon. Friend the Member for Hazel Grove (Mr Wragg) in his place. I pay tribute to his courage in speaking out so openly about his own challenges and, in so doing, doing a huge service to many people up and down this country. He is a man of great integrity and great courage, and I pay tribute to him. Although I do not always agree with him, this Chamber is always wise to listen to him. He represents his constituents passionately and well in this place. He touched on a number of things, but he specifically mentioned institutions—as did the shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury—including the Bank of England and the OBR. My hon. Friend knows me well and he knows that I have huge respect for both those bodies. Before I knew I would be occupying this place and that the right hon. Member for Wolverhampton South East would be my shadow, he and I were on television and I paid tribute to him for his role in a previous Labour Government for setting up the independence of the Bank of England, which I believe is important and needs to be respected.
The right hon. Member for East Ham (Sir Stephen Timms) is a distinguished former Chief Secretary to the Treasury and he highlighted a number of things, particularly the benefits question and the uprating of benefits, as did the hon. Member for Richmond Park (Sarah Olney). They will know that there is an annual process by which that is done. That process requires the statistics that were made available for the first time today—the September statistics. It is extremely important that that process is followed and I do not intend from the Dispatch Box to pre-empt a process that should be followed properly.
I listened carefully, as I always do, to the comments made by my hon. Friend the Member for St Austell and Newquay (Steve Double). He raised a particular point about stamp duty land tax thresholds and second homes. The increase in the SDLT threshold implemented on 23 September will remain, supporting first-time buyers and making home ownership more accessible. No one purchasing a second home or buy-to-let property will be taken out of paying SDLT entirely following the Government’s changes. The higher rate for additional dwellings introduced by the Government in April 2016 will continue to apply at 3% above the standard rate. I know that the Chancellor will have listened carefully to the points my hon. Friend made.
The hon. Member for Liverpool, Wavertree (Paula Barker) raised a number of points, including one about the NHS and my right hon. Friend the Chancellor’s role in it. This Government have invested record amounts in our NHS; I was the Minister who took through, in early 2020, the legislation that increased by £33.9 billion the funding for the NHS. My party has a strong track record of funding our NHS.
My hon. Friend the Member for Broadland (Jerome Mayhew) was right to highlight, as others have, the broader context in the global economy with which we are faced: the legacy of covid; and the challenges in Ukraine. During covid we did the right thing, supported by those on both sides of this House, to protect lives and livelihoods, but we should not pretend that that did not come at a significant cost.
Edward Argar
I am very conscious that I have only about two minutes left and I would like to address the points made by a few other colleagues, including some on the right hon. Gentleman’s side of the House.
The hon. Member for Weaver Vale (Mike Amesbury) knows that I am fond of him—I do not know whether that will harm my career or his—but I just highlight to him the challenges that have driven the headline inflation rates we are seeing, which are higher in the eurozone than here at the moment. These are not Government-driven; they are energy costs and supply-chain challenges. If he looks at the analysis by the Office for National Statistics of the figures, he will see that those rates are particularly driven by food costs and food supply chains. We also have to look more broadly at the geopolitical context.
My hon. Friend the Member for South Suffolk (James Cartlidge) genuinely understands business and knows what it takes, and he highlighted the need to support the most vulnerable. That is something that my right hon. Friend the Chancellor has made clear will be at the forefront of his announcements. My hon. Friend also touched on the social care levy and the social care cap, and I know that he has views on it. I know that my right hon. Friend the Chancellor will have heard that, but I am afraid that my hon. Friend will have to wait until 31 October for announcements from the Chancellor, which I will not pre-empt.
Significant contributions have been made by Members from both sides of this House. These are challenging times and the Government will take the difficult decisions necessary to ensure there is trust in our national finances. We will also remain completely committed to our mission to go for growth rooted in economic stability and confidence, but let us not forget that our economic foundations remain strong.
We are a Government with a record of action: we acted to support families and businesses on energy costs, we have acted to bring stability, and we will act to grow the economy. As the Chancellor said to the House on Monday, despite all the adversity and challenges we face, there is enormous potential in this country. Our job, now and always, is to fulfil that potential.
Question put.
The House proceeded to a Division.
Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Nigel Evans)
I understand there has been a problem with the card readers in the Aye Lobby. They should be working now.