Employer National Insurance Contributions

Toby Perkins Excerpts

Wednesday 4th December 2024 Commons Chamber

[Mel Stride (Central Devon) (Con)]

I beg to move,

That this House regrets that increasing the rate of employers’ National Insurance contributions (NICs) to 15%, and reducing the per-employee threshold at which employers become liable to pay NICs on employees’ earnings to £5,000, will lead to increased costs for businesses and lower wages for employees, including in particular young people; will force companies to cut employment, leading to some 130,000 job losses according to Bloomberg Economics; will increase costs for retailers by £2.3 billion according to the British Retail Consortium, leading to higher prices for consumers; will create an annual additional bill of £1.4 billion for charitable service providers according to the National Council for Voluntary Organisations, so they will struggle to maintain support for vulnerable people; and will increase childcare costs for families; further regrets that the Government has not published its complete assessment of the effect this policy will have on the public and private sector, or indeed any impact assessment; and regrets also that, as a result of the Government’s economic policies, GDP forecasts are down, inflation is up and business confidence is down.

“Growth” was the leitmotiv of the Labour party. Its members chuntered on about it during the run-up to the last general election, and in their manifesto, under the heading “Kickstart economic growth”, they said that they would secure the highest sustained growth in the G7. They also said—and I know that you like a good joke, Madam Deputy Speaker, but I would ask you to contain yourself—that they would forge a

“new partnership with business to boost growth everywhere”.

Given what has happened, those are fantastical statements. Reading Labour’s manifesto was somewhat like stepping through the looking glass. It had something of Lewis Carroll about it. This lot were less the Prime Minister and the Chancellor than the Walrus and the Carpenter, cruelly leading businesses to their demise. For all the fantasy in the manifesto, they might just as well have spoken

“Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—

Of cabbages—and kings—

And why the sea is boiling hot—

And whether pigs have wings.”

Because what happened to growth? The Office for Budget Responsibility tells us that the Budget will lead to less growth across the forecast period than was the case back in the spring under the last Government. The Office for National Statistics tells us in the third-quarter GDP data that the economy grew by 0.1%—one seventh of the growth in the United States. In the third month of that quarter, which was September, growth was actually negative. That is the record of this Government.

[Mr Toby Perkins (Chesterfield) (Lab)]

The right hon. Gentleman talks about the OBR figures, but he fails to mention that his party misled the OBR to the extent that it had to put the failure in writing. Given that he is talking about Lewis Carroll, is it not true to say that the figures that the OBR was working with were more likely to have been received from the Mad Hatter?

[Mel Stride]

That is an amusing intervention, but it is thoroughly inaccurate, I am afraid. The OBR did indeed look into the suggestion that there was a black hole of £22 billion, and what did it conclude? It concluded that the fiscal pressure in that year was less than half that amount. The OBR readily accepted that had it had discussions with Treasury officials about that at the time, it may well have reduced the amount still further. Members from across the House know that it is not unusual for the Treasury to manage down in-year fiscal pressures as a matter of course, so the argument has been debunked. It is the dead parrot. It is pushing up the daisies. It is no more.

The hon. Gentleman’s point is indicative of what this Government have done: they have talked down the UK economy. In turn, business confidence has slumped in a way seldom seen in our history, with purchasing managers index surveys falling through the floor. We have seen the Institute of Directors’ optimism tracker scoring minus 60 in November—one would have to go back to April 2020 to find a lower score than that. We also know that at the centre of the Budget is the biggest broken promise of all: the increase in employer’s national insurance contributions. That is weighing on growth.

And what of jobs? Labour’s fantastical manifesto talks about job creation, which is mentioned several times, but the Government are destroying jobs by breaking a manifesto commitment. It was there in black and white in their manifesto that they would not raise national insurance. Do not take my word that they breached their manifesto; take that of Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, who says precisely the same.

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[Darren Jones]

We have factored small businesses into the design of our policy, in terms of both employer national insurance contributions and our commitment to permanent lower rates for business rates than were given under the previous Government, as well as other support for the high street. We are also expanding eligibility to the employment allowance by removing the £100,000 eligibility threshold to simplify and reform employer NICs so that all eligible employers can now benefit.

Changes to the employment allowance mean that around 250,000 employers will see their national insurance contributions liability decrease, and more than 1 million will pay the same or less than they did previously. Overall, that means that more than half of businesses with NICs liabilities will either see no change or will gain overall from the package. That design was put in place specifically to protect the small businesses that the hon. Gentleman raises. That means that 865,000 employers will not pay national insurance at all, enabling them, for example, to employ up to four full-time workers on the national living wage and pay no employer NICs. Employers will also continue to benefit from employer NICs relief, including for hiring workers aged under 21 and apprentices aged under 25. To support veterans, the Government are extending the national insurance contributions relief for employers of qualifying veterans for one year to April 2026, and we have set aside funding to protect the spending power of the public sector, including the national health service, from the direct impacts of the changes.

Even after accounting for the impact of this change, the OBR expects real wages to rise by 3% between now and the end of the forecast period, but we recognise that there will be impacts on employers. While many small businesses and charities will be protected through employment allowance, others will have to contribute more. There will also be impacts beyond business, as the Office for Budget Responsibility has acknowledged.

[Mr Perkins]

My right hon. Friend and I spent many years in opposition, and have spoken in many Opposition day debates. Does he agree that when the Opposition move a motion like today’s, which says that the Government should not do something without making any alternative suggestion about what they should do, it is a sign that the Opposition have not worked out their answer to the question? At some point, I hope that the Opposition will be able to help the country and the Government by having some policies, but does he agree that, until they do, the Government will just have to crack on as best they can on their own?

[Darren Jones]

I agree with my hon. Friend, and I encourage Opposition Members to put forward proposals. I am all ears. I am willing to listen to them, but so far all we have is opposition and no policies. Maybe that will change in the future.

The motion claims that the Government have not set out any impact assessment of the policy change, but the Government published a tax information and impact note on 13 November that explained the Government’s assessment of the policy, including its impact on businesses and the economy more widely. This was a difficult choice, and it is not one that we have taken lightly, but it is the right choice given the dire economic inheritance that the Government faced upon taking office, and the need to fix our broken public services. As the Chancellor set out in the Budget, healthy businesses depend on a healthy NHS, and a strong economy depends on strong public finances.

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[Mr Perkins]

I am glad to hear that Liberal Democrats support the extra money for the health service, special needs education and social care. I apologise for my impatience, because I am sure the hon. Member is just about to get there, but can she tell us where the £25 billion should come from if not from this national insurance rise?

[Daisy Cooper]

I welcome that intervention. In the debate on the National Insurance Contributions (Secondary Class 1 Contributions) Bill yesterday, I addressed that question head on. I will try to remember my notes, which are sitting with Hansard. The hon. Gentleman will be aware that the OBR has said the £26 billion is actually reduced to £10 billion when behavioural changes and rebates to the NHS and care are factored in. On raising that £10 billion, we have said we would reverse the tax cuts that the Conservatives gave to the big banks, raising £4 billion. We could raise a further £3 billion by increasing the remote gaming duty and the digital services bill.

We set out proposals in our manifesto to reform capital gains tax in a different way from the Government. Our measures would have raised about £5 billion, so unlike the Conservatives—who did not set out the impact of the £10 billion to £20 billion of cuts that, based on their manifesto, would have been inevitable—we as a constructive Opposition have set out suggestions. I urge Labour Members to take up our ideas, if not in this Budget then certainly in the next.

We are approaching Small Business Saturday, when I am sure we will all be in our constituencies talking to small business owners. We know that small businesses are the engine of our economy and the backbone of our communities, and in many cases, they make our high streets what they are. When it comes to health and care businesses, though, I am concerned that this measure takes with one hand and gives back with another, but with no guarantee that the money that comes back will cover the costs. As such, I urge the Government to rethink these changes to national insurance contributions, but if they do not, I urge them at the very least to exclude health and care providers from these measures.

Mortgage Charter

Toby Perkins Excerpts

Monday 26th June 2023 Commons Chamber

[Jeremy Hunt]

The hon. Lady may want to belittle the fact that 400,000 more children and 200,000 more pensioners have been taken out of absolute poverty, but I think that that is an important achievement, and I am proud of it. I also think the hon. Lady should recognise that the primary causes of the inflation we are seeing are international factors that are affecting many other countries, which is why we are also seeing interest rates rise across the world.

[Mr Toby Perkins (Chesterfield) (Lab)]

The 8,600 mortgage holders in Chesterfield whose mortgages have increased by an average of £1,900 a year will be very conscious that in the Chancellor’s responses he has been very happy to blame global factors, but that when he is asked about specific countries such as France and Germany—the major European nations where outcomes are not as bad as in the UK—he quickly deflects and says, “Let’s talk about Australia or Canada.” Will he answer the question that my right hon. Friend the Member for Leeds West (Rachel Reeves) asked? Will he explain why it is worse for my constituents in Chesterfield than it is in France, in Germany and in other countries he has been asked about?

[Jeremy Hunt]

The truth is that Members can pick countries in Europe where things have not been as severe as they have here, but they can also pick countries in Europe where things have been more severe, such as the 14 EU countries that have higher core inflation.

Mortgage Market

Toby Perkins Excerpts

Tuesday 13th June 2023 Commons Chamber

[Andrew Griffith]

This Government are focused—and this is what our constituents want to hear—on halving inflation, growing the economy and reducing the debt burden. From today forwards, that is the action we can take that will see interest rates falling sooner, reduce inflation and get us back to a position of economic growth. I am sure the hon. Lady wants that for her constituents as much as I do.

[Mr Toby Perkins (Chesterfield) (Lab)]

The Conservative party once prided itself on being the party of homeowners. The fact that we long ago ran out of Conservatives asking questions makes it clear that Tory MPs realise they have nothing to say to those people. Does the Minister realise that my constituents who are desperately worried about the cost of their mortgages will not have heard a single word from him to suggest that things are going to get better as a result of this Government’s actions?

[Andrew Griffith]

I can absolutely reassure the hon. Gentleman that the Government are focused on his constituents, even if his colleagues find it useful to ask the same question again and again. We are focused on not making the sort of unfunded spending commitments—such as the £28 billion that the right hon. Member for Leeds West (Rachel Reeves) herself described as “reckless”—that would really cause difficulties for mortgage holders in Chesterfield and across the United Kingdom.

Cost of Living Increases

Toby Perkins Excerpts

Tuesday 25th April 2023 Commons Chamber

[Tulip Siddiq]

I thank the hon. Member for her intervention. She has outlined lots of situations that we hear about every day from our constituents, yet the Conservatives say that their economic plan is working—it is clearly not working. The resulting rise in interest rates and the economic instability have added £500 a month to first-time buyers’ bills. For too many, dreams of home ownership and starting a family have been destroyed—another pillar of the good life knocked away.

[Mr Toby Perkins (Chesterfield) (Lab)]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right to point to the Chancellor’s suggestion that the Government are the optimists and we are the declinists. In fact, are the optimists not those people who have taken on a mortgage and achieved that dream of home ownership, and who are being so cruelly let down by the incompetence of this Government?

[Tulip Siddiq]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right. We have to ask the Conservatives how they can continue to live in this fantasy world, because it does not match the reality on the ground. Let us not forget the impact of rising prices. Food prices are growing 50% faster than anywhere else in the G7, putting Britain’s food inflation rate at 19.2%, compared with an average of 12.8%. The price of sugar is up by an incredible 42%. Milk is up by more than 33%, and pasta is up by 25%. The UK has the highest inflation level in western Europe. That is a national scandal.

Financial Statement and Budget Report

Toby Perkins Excerpts

Wednesday 15th March 2023 Commons Chamber

[Jeremy Hunt]

This is a comprehensive plan to remove the barriers to work facing those on benefits, those with health conditions and older workers. That is the E of the employment pillar of today’s growth budget.

Which brings me to the final pillar of our growth plan. After employment, enterprise and everywhere, I turn to the E of education. Over more than a decade, this Conservative Government have driven improvement in our education system. We have risen by nearly 10 places in the international league tables for English and maths since 2015.

In the autumn statement, I built on this progress with an extra £2.3 billion annual investment to our schools. We are reviewing our approach to skills with Sir Michael Barber. We have set out our plans to transform lifelong learning with a new lifelong loan entitlement and my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister announced plans to make maths compulsory until 18. But today I want to address an issue in our education system that is bad for children and damaging for the economy. It is an issue that starts even before a child enters the gates of a school. Today I want to reform our childcare system.

We have the one of the most expensive systems in the world. Almost half of non-working mothers said they would prefer to work if they could arrange suitable childcare.

For many women, a career break becomes a career end. Our female participation rate is higher than average for OECD economies, but we trail top performers, such as Denmark and the Netherlands. If we matched Dutch levels of participation, there would be more than 1 million additional women working. And we can do that.

So today I announce a series of reforms that start that journey. I begin with the supply of childcare. We have seen a significant decline in childminders over recent years— down 9% in England in just one year. But childminders are a vital way to deliver affordable and flexible care, and we need more of them. I have listened to representations from my hon. Friend the Member for Stroud (Siobhan Baillie) and decided to address this by piloting incentive payments of £600 for childminders who sign up to the profession, rising to £1,200 for those who join through an agency.

I have also heard many concerns about cost pressures facing the sector. We know that is making it hard to hire staff and raising prices for parents, with around two thirds of childcare providers increasing fees last year alone. So we will increase the funding paid to nurseries providing free childcare under the hours offer by £204 million from this September, rising to £288 million next year. That is an average of a 30% increase in the two-year-old rate this year, just as the sector has requested.

I will also offer providers more flexibility in how they operate in line with other parts of the UK. So alongside that additional funding, we will change minimum staff-to- child ratios from 1:4 to 1:5 for two-year-olds in England as happens in Scotland, although the new ratios will remain optional with no obligation on either childminders or parents to adopt them.

I want to help the 700,000 parents on universal credit who, until the reforms I announced today, had limited requirements to look for work. Many remain out of work because they cannot afford the upfront payment necessary to access subsidised childcare. So for any parents who are moving into work or want to increase their hours, we will pay their childcare costs upfront. And we will increase the maximum they can claim to £951 for one child and £1,630 for two children, an increase of almost 50%.

I turn now to parents of school-age children, who often face barriers to working because of the limited availability of wraparound care. One third of primary schools do not offer childcare at both ends of the school day, even though for many people a job requires it to be available before and after school. To address this, we will fund schools and local authorities to increase the supply of wraparound care so that all parents of school-age children can drop their children off between 8 am and 6 pm. Our ambition is that all schools will start to offer a full wraparound offer, either on their own or in partnership with other schools, by September 2026.

Today’s childcare reforms will increase the availability of childcare, reduce costs and increase the number of parents able to use it. Taken together with earlier Conservative reforms, they amount to the most significant improvements to childcare provision in a decade. But if we really want to remove the barriers to work, we need to go further for parents who have a child under 3. For them childcare remains just too expensive.

In 2010, there was barely any free childcare for under-fives. A Conservative-led Government changed that, with free childcare for three and four-year-olds in England. It was a landmark reform, but not a complete one. I do not want any parent with a child under five to be prevented from working if they want to, because it is damaging to our economy and unfair, mainly to women, so today I announce that in eligible households in which all adults are working at least 16 hours, we will introduce 30 hours of free childcare not just for three and four-year-olds, but for every single child over the age of nine months.

The 30 hours offer will now start from the moment maternity or paternity leave ends. It is a package worth on average £6,500 every year for a family with a two-year- old child using 35 hours of childcare every week, and it reduces their childcare costs by nearly 60%. Because it is such a large reform, we will introduce it in stages to ensure that there is enough supply in the market. Working parents of two-year-olds will be able to access 15 hours of free care from April 2024, helping about half a million parents. From September 2024, that 15 hours will be extended to all children from nine months up, meaning that a total of nearly 1 million parents will be eligible. From September 2025, every single working parent of under-fives will have access to 30 hours of free childcare per week.

[Mr Toby Perkins (Chesterfield) (Lab)]

You’ll be gone by then.

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Dame Eleanor Laing)]

Order. Mr Perkins, stop it.

Stamp Duty Land Tax (Reduction) Bill

Toby Perkins Excerpts

Committee stage
Tuesday 10th January 2023 Commons Chamber

[Sir Christopher Chope]

This is the challenge, because some people think that this would adversely affect them. When we were looking at whether we should change the domestic rating system, we always faced the problem of the people who were going to be worse off, who were always the losers and who were going to complain. I accept that, were this to be implemented in the way I am canvassing, it would create some losers who would be unpleasantly surprised. That leads me to my belief that SDLT and stamp duty should be abolished altogether. [Hon. Members: “Hear, hear.”] That is an issue on which we, as real Conservatives who believe in a homeowning democracy, should be able to agree—and it seems from that response that we can agree on it—rather than dividing again in trying to find an alternative to an already unsatisfactory tax.

Let us remind ourselves that, in the 1980s, when we had the beginnings of the property-owning democracy revolution, with more than 50% of people in the 25 to 34 age group being homeowners, we had a stamp duty regime where the maximum rate to purchase any house was 1%. Since this process started under the Blair Government and continued with the coalition—the Treasury is always seeing this as a cow to be milked for taxpayers’ benefit—the proportion of people able to afford to buy their homes has declined significantly. So the challenge I make to the Government, and I hope the Minister can respond to this, is: if we put stamp duty back to 1% as a maximum, what would that do to increase the number of transactions in the housing market, which, as others have said, is ostensibly the Government’s agenda?

On 23 September, HMRC’s policy paper “Stamp Duty Land Tax Reduction” set out the following policy objective:

“This measure is part of government’s commitment to support homeownership and promote mobility in the housing market, in turn supporting economic growth. Increased property transactions also add to residential investment and spending on durable goods.”

Unfortunately, that was withdrawn on 28 November. It would be interesting to know whether that policy objective has been retained by the Government even though the HMRC policy paper has been withdrawn. Another paper issued on 23 September was “The Growth Plan 2022”, which I thought was great, as did many of my constituents. Paragraph 3.30 of the plan stated that the changes to SDLT would

“take 200,000 homebuyers, including 60,000 first-time buyers, out of SDLT entirely.”

Today, however, we are discussing a proposal by the Government, by way of amendments to the Bill, that would put those 200,000 home buyers, 60,000 of them first-time buyers, back into SDLT. Do we really want to do that? Do we really think it will help to move the housing market, boost growth and help people to have the mobility to get to new jobs?

This is not just about people being able to move to a new job by moving house; we also need to think about the damage to the environment being done by the large number of people who are now, having no alternative, being forced to engage in long-distance commuting. Last week, I visited a school in my constituency. The teacher showing me around has been driving regularly from Wales to do a great teaching job in the Christchurch constituency. Fortunately, she is about to move into the constituency, but that is after many, many months of that long-distance commuting. That is highly undesirable. It is bad for the environment and bad for the people involved, because it means that they are sitting behind the wheel of a car for far too long during the working week.

Stamp duty land tax is targeted against homeowners and it will have an adverse effect on labour mobility. Yet the Prime Minister, in his speech on 4 January, was complaining—I agree with him on this—that a quarter of our country’s labour force is inactive and, in this Bill, he is introducing an additional tax on the very mobility that he should be espousing. As my hon. Friend the Member for South Thanet has said, SDLT is a tax on downsizing: it makes it much more difficult for anyone to receive a significant return by selling a larger house and purchasing a smaller one.

My biggest complaint, though, is that the provision hits hardest those for whom homeownership is least affordable. The latest figures, produced by the House of Commons Library in December, show that, in Christchurch, the average house price is now 11.8 times earnings. The national average in England and Wales of eight times is bad enough, but why are we imposing that extra burden on those buying houses in places such as Christchurch? The latest figures from the 2021 census show that the dream of a homeowning democracy espoused by generations of Conservative politicians since Margaret Thatcher, and first raised in 1975, is not one of this Government’s priorities.

[Mr Toby Perkins (Chesterfield) (Lab)]

Hear, hear.

[Sir Christopher Chope]

I think it is very sad and embarrassing that His Majesty’s loyal Opposition should be crowing at that statement.

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[Mr Perkins]

Just to clarify, I am not remotely crowing. I entirely agree with the hon. Gentleman. This Government have hugely failed on allowing people to buy their own homes. It is a national disgrace. I support what he is saying; I am not remotely crowing.

[Sir Christopher Chope]

I accept that I used the wrong expression in suggesting that the hon. Gentleman was crowing. But may I set out the basis on which I have these concerns? In the Prime Minister’s speech on 4 January, there was not one mention of the word “housing”, let alone any mention of the expression “home ownership”. Why is that? We obviously have a real crisis in housing and home ownership on our hands. We are facing a potential fall in house prices this year—predicted by Oxford Economics to be about 12%, but who knows? Having stamp duty land tax, even at temporarily reduced levels, will mean that the burden of the reduction in house prices will be borne by those people trying to sell to a greater extent than would otherwise be necessary, because potential purchasers will have to budget for making SDLT payments to the Government.

You can tell, Mr Evans, that I am very concerned about the Bill. When I see that the Prime Minister has declared that the people’s priorities are the Government’s priorities and that we will rebuild trust in politics through action, all I can say is that I do not believe that the new measures in the Bill accord with the people’s priorities because I think those priorities are for a permanent reduction in stamp duty land tax and even, potentially, the abolition of that tax, rather than reintroducing it at a higher level in 2025.

When I was talking earlier today to a member of the Government’s Treasury team, I was told that one reason why my amendment (b) could not be accepted by the Government was that it had not been cleared by the Office for Budget Responsibility. I ask rhetorically, “Who is in charge?” Are we really saying that the Office for Budget Responsibility is able to forecast things to the extent of £1 billion here or £1 billion there? I do not think it can, and if that is the best that the Government can do in arguing against amendment (b), I hope they will think again about whether to accept it.

NHS Workforce

Toby Perkins Excerpts

Tuesday 6th December 2022 Commons Chamber

[Mr Toby Perkins (Chesterfield) (Lab)]

On a point of order, Madam Deputy Speaker. Once again we have had an Opposition day debate where the Government have refused to vote. We had an incredibly important motion in front of the House, on a matter of significant importance and interest to my constituents. In the first seven years I was in Parliament, we always had votes on Opposition days, and this is one of the ways that the Government are undermining the House of Commons and refusing to listen. The motion was passed by the House and contains a specific request, which the Government will go on and ignore, as they have done before. Has there been any discussion by Mr Speaker about reasserting the position of this House? It was never the case in the past that the Government ignored Opposition days; in fact, the Blair Government changed the policy on Gurkhas as a result of an Opposition day debate that they lost. Has there been any discussion about reasserting the voice of Parliament, so that when the House passes a motion, the Government listen to it?

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Dame Rosie Winterton)]

I thank the hon. Gentleman for his point of order. I am sure he is well aware that a motion such as the one we have just passed would not be binding. As he says, it was the case that Governments might participate a little more in the votes than they have recently, and it was the case some time ago that the Government agreed to give a response to motions that have been passed. It is up to individual Members and the Government to decide whether they wish to participate in votes; it is not the job of the Speaker to compel them, which I am sure the hon. Gentleman appreciates as well. I am not aware of any current discussions with the current Leader of the House, but perhaps the hon. Gentleman could raise this issue in business questions if he wished, and I am sure that those on the Treasury Bench will have heard his comment.

Oral Answers to Questions

Toby Perkins Excerpts

Tuesday 15th November 2022 Commons Chamber

[John Glen]

Absolutely, I will. Of course, it is not just about the cash settlement; it is about the interaction with other pots of money that are being spent, particularly in the health service, which is at the top of my mind and the Chancellor’s mind as we concentrate on what to do on Thursday.

[Mr Toby Perkins (Chesterfield) (Lab)]

8. What recent assessment he has made of the affordability of housing for first-time buyers.

[The Economic Secretary to the Treasury (Andrew Griffith)]

The Government are committed to helping as many first-time buyers on to the housing ladder as possible. We are investing £11.5 billion in building more of the affordable homes that the country needs. First-time buyers can access first-time buyer’s relief for stamp duty land tax, which means that 90% of first-time buyers need pay no stamp duty at all.

[Mr Perkins]

For so many younger people, even those on really good wages, the idea of owning their own house is now a pipe dream. We have 1 million more people in private rented accommodation and, since 2010, 800,000 fewer under-45 households own their own home. What is it about 12 years of Conservative government that has been so brutal for young people with ambitions to own their own home?

[Andrew Griffith]

The Government are very conscious and very supportive of people’s desire to own their own home, which is why we have made so many interventions on affordability. Underlying that is the strength of the economy, which offers great employment prospects for those who seek to work hard, to save and, ultimately, to purchase their own home. We are on their side.

Economic Responsibility and a Plan for Growth

Toby Perkins Excerpts

Wednesday 19th October 2022 Commons Chamber

[Rachel Reeves]

The truth is that a million people are missing from the labour market and half of those have long-term health conditions. We need to do much more to get those people back to work. One reason why unemployment is low is that so many people are not even looking for work because they are waiting for NHS operations, with waiting times at an all-time high.

Today, we learn that inflation has gone above 10% again; food inflation is at more than 14%; and in the last year alone, electricity prices are up 45% and gas prices have doubled. Despite all the extraordinary and unprecedented U-turns in recent days, the damage has been done. This Conservative Government have wrecked people’s finances and snuffed out the dream of home ownership for millions. Some 1.8 million people across the UK will pay higher mortgage bills by the end of next year—on average, they will pay £580 extra every single month—because of the reckless actions of the Government. In my Yorkshire constituency, the cost will be £360 extra a month. In the constituency of the Financial Secretary to the Treasury, the hon. Member for Arundel and South Downs (Andrew Griffith)—who is about to respond to me—it will cost people £640 extra every single month in higher mortgage payments. Families cannot afford to pay those higher mortgage costs, and they certainly cannot pay them with apologies from the Prime Minister. The public will not accept that the arsonists who inflicted this damage can put out the fire. The Tories can never be trusted with our economy again.

[Mr Toby Perkins (Chesterfield) (Lab)]

I congratulate my hon. Friend on the motion that she has tabled. It seems utterly unarguable that the crisis being wrought upon our constituents is to be laid squarely at the feet of the Government. It would appear that the Government agree, because according to briefings on Twitter, they do not intend to vote against the motion. Does my hon. Friend agree that the fact that the Chancellor has not turned up to defend the record and that Conservative Members do not even seem to disagree with the motion means that we can all agree that this is the Government’s fault?

[Rachel Reeves]

I agree that it is a shame that October’s Chancellor is not in his place today. This crisis has been co-written by every single member of the Cabinet and every single member of the Government. The Minister for the Armed Forces and Veterans was crystal clear yesterday in pointing out that all Cabinet Ministers had approved and are responsible for Government decisions, including the disastrous mini-Budget. There is no credibility or stability with this Government, just a shambles. All the time, businesses are looking at the state of the Government and deciding where and whether to invest. The Tories’ recklessness and enduring incompetence will cost jobs and investment here in Britain. The Conservatives should not be put in charge of a tombola, let alone the British economy.

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[Andrew Griffith]

The Chair of the Public Accounts Committee has made some fair points. We have acknowledged that mistakes have been made—the Prime Minister herself has said that—and I am happy to say it in the spirit in which the hon. Lady acknowledges that there are wider factors at work in the economy. It ill behoves the House to make those over-partisan points when our constituents are looking to us collectively for what we are able to do.

[Mr Perkins]

rose—

[Rushanara Ali]

rose—

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[Andrew Griffith]

I think we all have constituents who are rightly worried in these times of global turbulence and increasing interest rates in every part of the world. The hon. Lady will forgive me, I hope, if I do not comment on the specific operations of the Bank of England, which I think would be inappropriate—other than thanking hard-working officials for the intervention that they have made over the last couple of weeks.

[Mr Perkins]

rose—

[Andrew Griffith]

I will give way one more time, and then, if Members will forgive me, I will make some progress.

[Mr Perkins]

I am grateful to the Minister.

Of course global factors meant that the situation was dangerous, but will the Minister acknowledge that it is precisely because of those global factors that the new Prime Minister and Chancellor had to tread very, very carefully? That is why what they did was so reckless and so damaging.

[Andrew Griffith]

I am not sure that I can fully accept what the hon. Member says, but the Government are committed to the independence of our institutions. It is very important that people understand that. Both the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility have a valuable role to play, which is why when the Chancellor presents his forecast to the House in just eight parliamentary days’ time he will ensure that it has been fully presented to, and signed off by, the Office for Budget Responsibility.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Toby Perkins (Chesterfield) (Lab)]

I rise to speak in support of the motion. I am glad to hear that it seems to be enjoying a lot of support, and I hope to see the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast published immediately after the motion is carried.

I have always opposed Tory Governments. I have long been of the view that a bad Labour Government is better than a good Tory one. I know what the Tories are about and I never expected them to do anything other than make life more difficult for the most vulnerable. In fact, if that were not the way the Tory party operated, we would never have needed to invent the Labour party in the first place. But having opposed many Conservative Governments, never before have I seen one so inept, yet so arrogant as the current Government; so damaging, yet so casual about their impact on people’s lives.

When the revisionism comes, as it undoubtedly will in the weeks and months to come, we must remember that this situation did not fall out of a clear blue sky. There was a clear mandate, because during that leadership contest the Prime Minister was clear about what she intended to do. It was Tory MPs who put her into the final two. Now we hear them say, “We must never again let the members choose the leader”, but they chose to put the right hon. Member for South West Norfolk (Elizabeth Truss) in the final two knowing full well what policies she would support. Huge revisionism is going on so that the next generation of Tory MPs will be able to say, “Oh, that was just a rogue Chancellor and a long-ago deposed Prime Minister. Forget about them—we changed after that,” but the right hon. Lady won a mandate from her party to pursue those policies.

At the time of the mini-Budget statement, some voices were expressing disquiet, but I recall the support we heard from many Tory Members. It was when I heard how happy the mini-Budget had made the right hon. Member for Wokingham (John Redwood) that I knew how bad it would be for the British people. I remember the hon. Member for Don Valley (Nick Fletcher), who was in his place a few minutes ago, claiming that the whole of Doncaster would support the mini-Budget. I have not heard him say that today. As the hawks of the right-wing press circle over the Prime Minister, let us not forget that they were the loudest cheerleaders for this mini-Budget. The day after the statement, the Daily Mail proclaimed, “At last! A true Tory Budget”. The Express was equally triumphant—“Big tax cuts to herald new era”.

[Janet Daby (Lewisham East) (Lab)]

Does my hon. Friend agree that the then Chancellor was carrying out what the Prime Minister had said she would do? She made sure that he lost his job, but she should be the one taking responsibility and, indeed, resigning.

[Mr Perkins]

I could not agree more. The right hon. Member for Spelthorne (Kwasi Kwarteng) is the first politician in history to have had to resign for doing what he said he was going to do, which was precisely what the Prime Minister said she was going to do. The mini-Budget was born of the recklessness of the previous Prime Minister having pursued so much, so confidently, with so little evidence.

Make no mistake: I will spend every day between now and a general election making sure that the people of Chesterfield know that the higher interest rates, the tax rises, the cuts to our threadbare services and even, shamefully, the prospect of disabled people on benefits and impoverished pensioners suffering further cuts to their real-terms income, are all the result of this arrogant recklessness. This did not need to happen. Yes, there are global issues, but the central banks in America and Germany did not have to bail out the pension funds. Of course we welcome the fact that the Government have undone some of the measures, although it was bizarre to hear the Chancellor say on Monday how pleased he was that Labour were supporting his plans. They were our plans a few weeks ago! Now, the Tory Government see it as a success that they are trying to put out the fire that they lit in the first place, but the damage has already been done.

The logical call for a windfall tax made by my hon. Friend the Member for Leeds West (Rachel Reeves) continues to be rejected. What objection do the Government have to asking the energy generators to contribute some of their vast excess profits to help to fund the cost of ensuring that people can stay warm this winter and enabling businesses to keep their doors open?

[Paula Barker]

Does my hon. Friend agree that when even the CEO of Shell is advocating a windfall tax—we truly have gone through the looking glass—it is time the Tories did the right thing?

[Mr Perkins]

It absolutely is. I suspect that, ultimately, they will. I am a great student of history and I can remember all the way back to January this year, when the Labour party called for a windfall tax. I remember the then Prime Minister standing at the Dispatch Box mocking us and saying that Labour always wants to raise taxes, and the then Chancellor saying the same thing. A few months later, reluctantly they had to announce precisely that. The right hon. Member for Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Boris Johnson) used to stand at the Dispatch Box criticising the policy—our policy—that he later adopted. That is how bizarre this Government’s behaviour has been. Now we have to go through the same damaging charade again. It is clear that ultimately the Government will adopt Labour’s policy of a windfall tax, but in the meantime their resistance will cost our country and our people dear.

Just a week ago, the Prime Minister was boasting that she was guaranteeing people’s energy bills for the next two years, so why were Labour only going to guarantee them for six months? Then on Monday the Chancellor comes here and says, “All right—six months.” That is how this Government are running our economy. You would not run a whelk stall like that.

Government policies change at a bewildering rate, but they do not seem to understand that it is not just that the policies are wrong; it is the clear demonstration that they do not have a clue what they are doing that is unsettling the markets. In Chesterfield, 3,352 households face a hike in their mortgage payments next year. It is quite unforgiveable. My hon. Friend the Member for Liverpool, Wavertree (Paula Barker) said that this is 2011 all over again, but that is not so. In 2011 we were coming off the back of 13 years of Labour investment in our public services, so there was a chance that our health services, our schools and our Sure Starts could withstand the cuts. Not now. Our public services cannot tolerate the sort of cuts that the Chancellor has warned might be coming our way.

The idea that this Government can restore confidence in our nation’s finances by having two more years to demonstrate the ineptitude that in the past 12 years has brought us to our present state would be laughable if it were not so serious. There is no mandate for the approach that they are now pursuing. If the Tories think that they can quietly euthanise the career of the latest Prime Minister and have another go, they are further removed from reality than even I believe they are.

We need a Government who are truly committed to growth, to a green recovery and to rebuilding our public services. We need a Government whose policies last beyond the ink drying on the growth document they have just printed. We need a Government whose plans are robust and whose leader is strong. We need a Government who are willing to lead in the national interest, and not just in the narrow interest of their party. That means we need a Labour Government led by my right hon. and learned Friend the Member for Holborn and St Pancras (Keir Starmer). We need that general election now.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr McFadden]

We have never argued that there was no need for borrowing. The point we made was that much more of this could be funded by a windfall tax. If the hon. Gentleman thinks that that is some sort of revelation, I can only ask him where he has been living for the last few months.

The Prime Minister and the Chancellor of September behaved like student pamphleteers. When the Prime Minister stood up at her conference and attacked

“vested interests dressed up as think tanks”,

it was an announcement worthy of the gold medal for lack of self-awareness, for never has there been a Government more symbolic of the failure of think-tanks on influential thinking than the one that she leads.

The Prime Minister and her ideological soulmate got the keys to the Treasury Ferrari, took it for a joyride and then crashed it into a ditch. Now, belatedly, by commissioning the OBR report and singing the praises of an independent Bank of England after spending all the summer undermining it, they have signed themselves up for the speed awareness course; but it is too late, because people will continue to pay the price of what they have done.

We have now had two fiscal events with no report from the OBR. This was not just about what was done, but about how it was done. The whole country is paying a price for the Conservative party’s contempt for the institutions that safeguard our economic credibility. And where does it all leave the Prime Minister? The mini-Budget was not a surprise to her; it was not imposed on her; she was 100% its co-author. It embodied her beliefs, her world view, the central core of the campaign on which she fought and won the leadership contest. Now everything she believes in has had to be burned in front of her to try to keep this zombie Government carrying on. This is not a case of “too far, too fast”, as she has claimed, or of a minor policy U-turn. It is a repudiation of everything that she stands for. It is a total and utter reversal.

The one surviving policy that the Prime Minister keeps praying in aid, the energy price guarantee, is the one policy that she campaigned against throughout her leadership campaign, saying that she was opposed to handouts. The question now is, what is her premiership for? Is it for the policies that she really believes in—those in the mini-Budget, now rejected and lying in ashes—or is it for the revenge of the orthodoxy that she so disdains? Each dose of the medicine she takes entails embracing that which she has so publicly rejected. Her argument, in effect, is “Please keep me here so that I can be what I am not.”

[Mr Perkins]

Is not the truth that what the Prime Minister’s leadership is for is for the moment? She is here for a very short period, until the Tories can find an excuse to get rid of her.

[Mr McFadden]

My hon. Friend is right. In fact, the only discussion on the Conservative Benches is about how to do precisely that.

We cannot believe anything the Prime Minister says. Only seven days ago, she stood at that Dispatch Box and promised there would be “absolutely” no spending cuts.

Five days later, the new Chancellor—October’s Chancellor—told us that the cuts had to be eye-watering. Conservative Members know that this is an impossible basis for leadership, and that it leaves the Prime Minister in an untenable position. They are remembering the words of the song that was played at their party conference as she came on to the stage:

“You've done me wrong, your time is up…there's no way back…you’re movin' on out”.

Three cheers for M People: not just a great band, but one with the political foresight of Nostradamus.

Now the new Chancellor has been sent down from the mountain, come among us, as he says, to restore confidence and stability—but who destroyed confidence in the UK? Who created the instability? Who fashioned the Tory risk premium? I am too polite to call it what they are calling it in the City, which is “the moron premium”. It was the new Chancellor’s own Government.

Let us be clear: no one was talking about spending cuts before the mini-Budget of 23 September, so the cuts are a result of what the Government have done. There has been no emergency central bank intervention to rescue pensions in the United States, Germany or France. The global circumstances that the Government refer to were the reason not to take such reckless risks with the public finances.

I have noticed one thing about the new Chancellor, though: he is not pretending that it is year zero. He is owning the record—all 12 years of it—and he now wants to implement a version of what was done after 2010. We have gone from an economic policy of having to borrow from communities such as mine in Wolverhampton South East to fund a tax cut for people earning over £150,000 to a policy of those communities having to pay for the chaos caused by the first policy.

We can see what the plan is. Having crashed the economy and brought a new dimension of pity, bemusement and risk to the term “global Britain”, the Government now want the acid test to be support for their public expenditure cuts. They have already made people pay once for their mismanagement through higher mortgage rates. Now they want to make people pay twice through cuts to public services. It is the ultimate in governmental arrogance. They get to mess up the country through a giant ideological experiment and then ask everyone else to pay the price. That is not a political virility test; it is a candid admission of failure.

The roots of that failure lie not just in one or two policy errors but in something deeper. They lie in the triumph of ideology over evidence. They lie in the view that all that is needed is blind faith—the test that someone is a true believer—and the view that anyone who questions or points out inconvenient truths is a doom-monger, part of the blob, and not a proper patriot. That destructive ideology has done great harm to our politics. It has reduced the Conservative party to its current abject state, and has served as the rationale for attacking one institution after another.

Politics begins with wanting to change the world, but what have this Conservative Government been reduced to? Attacking tofu. What other forms of food will now be lined up in the culture war that is all that is left for them? The disaster of the past few months should result not just in a few policy U-turns, but in turning away from the politics that drove those decisions and has done such harm to the country. This country has great strengths: world-leading services, great high-value manufacturing, creative industries with global reach, some of the best universities in the world, and a fantastic workforce. It deserves much better than this Conservative Government.

Economic Update

Toby Perkins Excerpts

Monday 17th October 2022 Commons Chamber

[Jeremy Hunt]

Yes and yes.

[Mr Toby Perkins (Chesterfield) (Lab)]

First, when the Chancellor rises to respond to this question, will he withdraw the claim that Labour opposed furlough? We did not—we supported it. Secondly, the previous Chancellor took the view that if we reduced corporation tax more money came back in revenue. Indeed, in his own short-lived leadership contest the Chancellor seemed to be saying the same thing and proposed even greater cuts to corporation tax. Will he now tell us whether he believes that an increase in corporation tax will raise more revenue or, as he has previously said, less?