National Insurance Contributions (Secondary Class 1 Contributions) Bill

Dave Doogan Excerpts

2nd reading
Tuesday 3rd December 2024 Commons Chamber

[The Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury (James Murray)]

I beg to move, That the Bill be now read a Second time.

In her Budget statement on 30 October, the Chancellor set out the difficult decisions that we as a Government have been prepared to make on welfare, spending and tax. Those decisions were not just difficult but necessary, given the fiscal irresponsibility and economic mismanagement that had become hallmarks of the previous Government. We inherited a mess, so those decisions were needed to fix the public finances, fund the NHS and other public services and deliver economic stability. We have been determined to take those decisions while protecting working people. That is why our Budget made no changes to income tax, the rate of VAT, or the amount of national insurance that working people pay. As a result of our Budget, people will not see a penny more tax on their payslips.

[Dave Doogan (Angus and Perthshire Glens) (SNP)]

Is the Minister seriously suggesting that, with the best brains in the Treasury on hand, he does not understand that it is a moot point whether someone has a higher national insurance contribution in their payslip, or whether their wages are suppressed and the job that they were going for is not there anymore, because the employer cannot afford to increase their payroll due to this national insurance increase?

[James Murray]

We recognise that we are asking businesses to contribute more, and that this will have impacts, but it will be up to individual businesses to decide how to respond to these changes. The one thing that we know for certain is that if we had chosen a different path—if we had followed the previous Government and increased income tax or national insurance—that would have led to a tax on people’s payslips. It would have led to the amount of money in people’s pockets going down, which would have broken our manifesto promise.

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[Dave Doogan (Angus and Perthshire Glens) (SNP)]

What is the café owner, the hotelier, the mobile mechanic, the gardener, the florist and—dare I even say it?—the farmer, if not an ordinary working person? The Government’ s false prospectus and their dubious cleavage between who is and who is not an ordinary working person is the snake oil that will be their undoing sooner rather than later. I also inform Treasury Ministers, which I really should not have to do, that when they refer to a business consisting of four or five people, they are referring to a microbusiness, not a small business. One would really expect the Treasury to be able to make such a distinction.

The Scottish Government pointed out last week that Labour’s raid on national insurance would leave a shortfall of at least £200 million in Scottish public sector finances. Labour’s own figures show that the cost to Scotland of the national insurance increase will be over £500 million, including a cost of £191 million to Scotland’s NHS, and that is corroborated by the Fraser of Allander Institute, which has estimated that the Scottish Government will be left with a £500 million shortfall as a result of these taxes. In my constituency, Perth and Kinross council is facing a £5.4 million recurring pressure, while Angus council faces a £5 million pound pressure. When indirect employees such as those in childcare settings, general practices, colleges or social care are included, the figure in Scotland rises to £750 million pounds, for which we have been offered £300 million in compensation. It is absolutely scandalous. In Scotland, which has more top universities per head of population than any other nation in the world, the university sector is under tremendous pressure. And what of the private sector? The bill for Scotland—the gross quantum by which it will be penalised by this fiscal misadventure—is £2 billion, and the private sector is on the hook for £1.25 billion of that, which is entirely unacceptable.

While we are talking about what is happening to Scotland, wouldn’t it have been nice if some of the Scottish Labour MPs had turned up for the debate to speak up for their constituents? [Interruption.] Perhaps one who was not a parliamentary private secretary, and did not have to be here.

About 600,000 people in Scotland are employed in the public sector, making up 22% of the workforce, as opposed to about 17% in the UK as a whole. That means that exposure in Scotland is even greater. The Fraser of Allander Institute has said that the UK Government appear to be applying Barnett consequentials to the public sector compensation for increased NICs, although public sector employees are not uniformly distributed between Scotland and rest of the UK. It notes:

“The UK Government has set aside £4.7 billion to compensate public sector employers”,

although the institute says that “it remains unclear” how they have done that. It says that

“The size of the Scottish devolved public sector is 547,000, which is 9.2% of all public sector employment in the UK”.

That is a consequence of Scotland’s geography, and of political decisions that have been made in Scotland. I am not shying away from that; far from it. I am proud of it.

The Westminster Government have increased the Scottish block grant for 2025-26 by £3.4 billion, which comes with a £2 billion clawback. That is devolution in a nutshell. The increase in national insurance will prove disastrous for wages, public services, businesses and growth in Scotland. Ahead of Scotland’s Budget tomorrow, it is vital for the UK Government to reconsider their approach and fully fund this Labour national insurance raid.

The OBR has said that it believes most of the increase in national insurance will be passed on to workers and consumers in the form of lower wages and higher prices—you do not need to be an economic wizard to work that out—and the Institute for Fiscal Studies has warned that the move will increase the cost of employing a worker in the bottom fifth of earners by 4%, compared with around 1.5% for workers in the top fifth of earners. As such, it is clear that this intervention will hit lower-paid workers worst and increase the risk of fewer jobs being available in the marketplace.

Business owners have said that they are now rethinking expansion plans for 2025 or delaying planned investments. In a joint letter earlier this month, 81 of the biggest retail names in the UK warned the Chancellor that her Budget

“will make job losses inevitable, and higher prices a certainty.”

The chief executive officers of Sainsbury’s, Asda and BT are all talking about rises in their operating costs, which will have to be funded somewhere, most likely through price rises.

The British Medical Association has described the national insurance increase as an

“existential threat to NHS General Practice”.

GPs are already struggling with a recruitment crisis and staff shortages at a time of growing demand and increasing pressures, and a survey of care home providers in Scotland found that nearly half of them are noting the very real possibility of service closure as a result of the increase in national insurance. Similarly, charities are negatively affected.

This measure is dysfunctional in a literal sense. It will not deliver what the Government hope; rather, as we all know and the Government should know, it will reduce growth, suppress wages, cost jobs, lower recruitment, increase inflation and lower living standards. What kind of Government would carry out such a calamitous act of economic self-harm? Well, we know: this kind of Government. I look forward to voting against this Bill tonight.

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[Mark Ferguson]

I thank my hon. Friend for making that point. It is always worth reminding Members of all shades and stripes of the existence of the coalition Government. Quite often I hear the Liberal Democrats talk about 14 years of terrible decisions, but I am afraid that they have to own five of those years.

We have not heard the Opposition thank this Government for increasing the minimum wage—the words are “thank you”, by the way—to £12.21 an hour. As we have seen, when we increase the minimum wage and put more money in the pockets of working people of all stripes, we see more money spent on high streets and in local communities, and more thriving local businesses. I have been meeting local businesses recently, including Prism Coffee in Saltwell park—it does an excellent flat white, by the way—the Rare Drop in Low Fell, which has an absolutely fantastic selection of beers and cheeses, and my next-door neighbour, the owner of Creations and Alterations, who can do some work on your suit.

But what people in Low Fell have been speaking to me about recently is crime—retail crime and crime on our high streets—and we are going to tackle that by raising money and spending more on the police so that they can be not only a visible presence in our communities but solve crimes. For too long, break-ins have been ignored, and that is a fundamental problem for businesses. If they are having to spend £1,400 on getting shutters for their shop on the high street, that is a fundamental hit to their bottom line. If they are having the back door of their business kicked in every night of the week, whether money is stolen or not, that it is pushing up their insurance premiums and it is a hit to their bottom line. How do we tackle that? With more police on the streets, and we will fund that with this national insurance increase.

[Dave Doogan]

The Government will receive £10 billion from this intervention in the tax regime. How many times are they going to spend it?

[Mark Ferguson]

I thank the hon. Member for his point. This is what is known as a balanced Budget, and we on this side of the House are going to do something remarkable. The amount of money that we raise will match the amount of money that we spend. I know that might seem alien to some of those on the Opposition Benches, but that is what we are going to do.

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[Gareth Davies]

Absolutely. We all heard what the Chancellor said at the Confederation of British Industry conference. It is remarkable that the Prime Minister will not back up her words, and even more remarkable that the Chancellor herself would not back up her words today at Treasury questions.

The British people see the Bill for what it is: the biggest broken promise of them all, and there are plenty to choose from. It is a good job the Chancellor has experience on a complaints desk, because, quite frankly, there are quite a lot coming in at the moment—not least from the business community, as my hon. Friend the Member for South Shropshire (Stuart Anderson) highlighted so well in his speech. Before the election, the Chancellor embarked on what she referred to as the “smoked salmon offensive” with British business; now the election is over, she has dropped the smoked salmon and is focusing on just being offensive.

Today’s Bill will introduce tax rises on working people in business that were never declared before the election. It is a double whammy, as the Federation of Small Businesses has said in Lincolnshire: it introduces not just the rate rise, but a reduction in the threshold. This tax is the only major tax that is paid exclusively by working people. It is a £25 billion tax rise on jobs. The OBR makes it clear that by 2027, 76% of the total cost of this tax increase will be passed on to working people through lower wages and higher prices, as the hon. Member for Angus and Perthshire Glens (Dave Doogan) said in what I thought was a very thoughtful speech for the SNP.

As I said at Treasury questions this morning, the OBR says this is a tax on working people; the IFS says this is a tax on working people; even the Resolution Foundation says this is a tax on working people. By anyone’s measure—be in no doubt—this is a manifesto breach the public will not forget. That is clear.

What is not so clear any more is what this Labour party stands for. The Budget was an attack not just on working people, but on the very lowest paid working people, according to the IFS. This is a fundamentally regressive policy, leaving many out in the cold and giving businesses no choice but to freeze hiring and freeze wages. It will hit others, too. It will hit the doctors and the nurses working in general practice and social care, as my right hon. Friend the Member for East Hampshire (Damian Hinds) set out in his speech. It will hit charities and voluntary organisations, with Marie Curie expecting that it will cost the charity £3 million next year alone—all part of a £1.4 billion bombshell to hit all charities next year. It will hit hospices, homeless support groups and disability charities, which are all warning they face reducing headcount and limiting services. This is not what the British people voted for.

[Dave Doogan]

Is the hon. Gentleman concerned, as many of my colleagues are, that the Government will not give the full details on compensation for the non-core public sector activities that are the lifeblood of the NHS because, if they gave them the compensation that they need, the net benefit from the tax would be so risibly small as to demonstrate that it is utterly pointless and a concoction that could come only from a dysfunctional Treasury like this one?

[Gareth Davies]

There is really nothing to add to that. The hon. Gentleman made that point in his speech and at Treasury questions—it is a very important point.

In just six months, we have hit the highest tax burden in history. Debt is up, with debt interest payments above £100 billion—for the first time ever—in every year of the forecast. Today’s Bill will result in lower wages, higher prices and a tougher employment market. I urge this Government to reverse course, but I will not hold my breath. Instead, I think I can predict what the Minister is going to say. She is going to say three things when she stands up to speak. First, she is going to try to blame the Conservative party—blaming everybody else for this clear political choice. She will not explain the £8 billion on GB Energy—an energy company that will not actually reduce bills or produce any energy—or the £10 billion on public pay splurges that come with no reform on productivity, or £7 billion on rebranding the national infrastructure bank. Perhaps if the Government dropped those pet projects—which will not actually grow the economy—they would have a little more money and would not have to screw with small businesses and make people unemployed.

Secondly, the Minister will forget that she is in government and that I am in opposition. She will ask me what my party would do instead. To that, I simply say that we would fund the NHS well, but we would also reform it.

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[The Economic Secretary to the Treasury (Tulip Siddiq)]

It is an honour to close the debate on behalf of the Government. When the hon. Member for Grantham and Bourne (Gareth Davies) loses his seat, he can work as my speechwriter, because he is right that I am going to say all the things he said, but I will come on to that soon.

Let me start by thanking hon. Members for their contributions to the debate. There were some powerful speeches, including from my hon. Friends the Members for Chipping Barnet (Dan Tomlinson), for Bournemouth East (Tom Hayes), for Leeds South West and Morley (Mr Sewards), for Gateshead Central and Whickham (Mark Ferguson), for Dartford (Jim Dickson), for Welwyn Hatfield (Andrew Lewin), for East Thanet (Ms Billington), for Rochdale (Paul Waugh), for Loughborough (Dr Sandher), for Basingstoke (Luke Murphy) and for Reading West and Mid Berkshire (Olivia Bailey). .

Before I come to the specific points raised in this debate, I want to reiterate the purpose of the Bill. Our priority in the Bill is to restore stability to our economy, repair the public finances to fix our economy, and support long-term economic growth. The Chancellor recognised that to do that, the Government needed to make difficult decisions. That is why under the measures in the Bill, employers are being asked to contribute more. First, the Bill provides for a rise in the rate of employer secondary class 1 national insurance contributions from 13.8% to 15%. Secondly, it provides for a decrease in the secondary threshold for employers from £9,000 per employee to £5,000. Thirdly, it provides for changes to the employment allowance, to increase it from £5,000 to £10,500, and removes the £100,000 eligibility cap, so that the vast majority of employers benefit.

The hon. Member for North Bedfordshire (Richard Fuller) asked at the start of the debate where the extra money raised will go. Let me remind him that the Government uncovered a challenging fiscal and spending inheritance with £22 million of in-year pressure on public finances. We have taken difficult but necessary decisions to fix the foundations of our economy and to fix public services. The Budget provided additional day-to-day funding to stabilise and support public services. Day-to-day funding will now grow at an average of 3.3% in real terms over this year and next, compared to 0.2% under the last Government’s plans.

[Dave Doogan]

A £200 million black hole in the Scottish Government’s core finances, rising to £450 million when partner agencies are included—what kind of stability does the Minister think that will bring to public services in Scotland?

[Tulip Siddiq]

If the hon. Gentleman is patient and listens carefully to my speech, I will come on to the Scottish Government, so he does not need to worry.

The increase in employment NICs raises revenues for the NHS and increases funding for contributory benefits such as the state pension, easing wider pressures on public finances. It is part of the Government’s announcement of an additional £22.6 billion of day-to-day spending over two years for the Department of Health and Social Care, including the NHS.

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[Tulip Siddiq]

If you will forgive me, Madam Deputy Speaker, I feel that a lettuce would have better judgment.

I turn to the devolved Governments. The Government will provide Departments and other public sector employers with support for additional ER NICs costs only. The funding will be allocated to Departments, with the Barnett formula applying in the usual way. The overall outcome of the Barnett formula is that all the devolved Governments will receive at least 20% more funding per person than the equivalent UK Government spending in the rest of the UK. The Scottish Government will receive £47.7 billion in 2025-26, including an additional £3.4 billion through the operation of the Barnett formula. The Welsh Government will receive £21 billion in 2025-26, including an additional £1.7 billion through the operation of the Barnett formula.

[Dave Doogan]

The Minister is being very generous in taking a second intervention from me. I realise that the bar for credibility in the Treasury is very low right now, but she hoots and toots about the level of the block grant for the Scottish Government. In what universe does the block grant go down year on year? Of course it is higher than in previous years. Has she got the faintest idea how it works?

[Tulip Siddiq]

I do have the faintest idea how it works, which is why I am on this side of the House and the hon. Gentleman is on that side. That is why I am a Treasury Minister and he is not, and probably never will be.

The hon. Member for Huntingdon (Ben Obese-Jecty) spoke about hospitality. Without any Government intervention, retail, hospitality and leisure relief would have ended entirely in April 2025, creating a cliff edge for business. [Interruption.] I know the truth hurts, which is why the hon. Member for Thirsk and Malton (Kevin Hollinrake) is chuntering from the Opposition Front Bench. Our Government have decided to offer a 40% discount to RHL properties by introducing a cash cap of £110,000 per business in 2025-26, and we have frozen the small business multiplier. This package is worth over £1.6 billion in 2025-26 and is aimed at supporting the most vulnerable businesses, ensuring that over 250,000 RHL properties receive the full 40% support.

National Insurance Contributions (Secondary Class 1 Contributions) Bill

Dave Doogan Excerpts

Committee of the whole House & 3rd reading
Tuesday 17th December 2024 Commons Chamber

[Pippa Heylings]

I agree with the hon. Member. I will give one example: the Arthur Rank hospice, which serves all of Cambridgeshire. I had a tour there and saw the work being done by its dedicated professionals. I was informed by its senior leadership that these hikes in national insurance contributions for employers will be the equivalent of £230,000 in additional payroll costs on top of the fundraising that it already has to do. That is money that it does not have. We know from the debate on assisted dying, assisted suicide and the terminally ill how critical palliative care and end-of-life care is. That is one hospice that will struggle severely to deal with these charges.

Hon. Members have spoken about the GP crisis. According to the British Medical Association, 1,387 GP practices have closed since 2015 and the NHS has lost the equivalent of 1,333 full-time, fully qualified GPs. Each GP is responsible for an average of 2,294 patients, and about 3 million people have been directly affected in the last decade by shrinking GP numbers. At a time when we desperately need more GPs, we are introducing a tax that risks driving even more practices out of business. It is not just me saying that; I am sure that hon. Members across the House will have heard from GPs in their constituencies.

In my constituency of South Cambridgeshire, I have heard from the Harston, Comberton, Queen Edith, Eversden and Melbourn practices. I have spoken in particular to Dr Gee of Harston surgery, who has told me that his practice with 7,600 patients faces a £20,000 bill from April just to maintain its current services—just to stand still.

[Dave Doogan (Angus and Perthshire Glens) (SNP)]

The hon. Lady is making a tremendously informed speech and demonstrating a level of understanding of primary care and the care sector that we could only dream of from the Government. Is it her concern that many charities, voluntary sector organisations and GP surgeries are already operating on the thinnest margins of financial sustainability and that this measure will torpedo the very organisations that protect our communities from absolute chaos? Secondary care cannot do it alone; it is upheld by primary care and the care sector. Is she as concerned as many other hon. Members that this will cause absolute chaos?

[Pippa Heylings]

I agree with the hon. Member. I know that the Government are in conversation with GPs, but GPs are writing to us saying that they are seriously concerned.

The GP in Harston said:

“GPs cannot raise prices or operate at a loss.”

They have not had clarification or confirmation from the Government about how funding that is to be given to others in the public sector will be available to them. Just at the critical time when GPs are coming to their annual spending reviews and budgeting, the Government are bringing them this uncertainty. GPs do not feel that they are getting the right messaging or any kind of clarity that will save people’s jobs.

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[Dave Doogan]

The hon. Member is very kind to give way. Twice in the past couple of minutes, he has used the word “ultimately”—“Ultimately we will have to do this, and ultimately we will have to do that.” It is “actually” that he should be saying. You actually have to make sure that there is funding, not ultimately—that can wait for another day. Actually is what will happen as soon as this legislation comes to pass—you will be in an absolute quagmire.

[The Second Deputy Chairman]

Mr Doogan, I will not be in a quagmire.

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[Dr Sandher]

I direct the hon. Gentleman to today’s labour market statistics. Employment is still high; unemployment is about the same as it was; and I think inactivity is falling. In the official statistics, the picture looks good.

More broadly, vacancies are not the measure that we want to look at. Instead, we want to look at the number of people in jobs. The revenue that we are raising today will be invested in actions that directly create those good jobs. The warm homes plan will upgrade 300,000 homes, which is tens of thousands of good jobs. The expansion of early years childcare is tens of thousands of good jobs. Businesses need to know that they have the healthy workforce that they need, and more people who are available to work. This is a Budget for growth and for jobs.

[Dave Doogan]

The hon. Gentleman talks about the expansion of early years childcare, but that will not be of much use if nurseries shut down because they cannot pay their national insurance. Does he understand that dynamic?

[Dr Sandher]

I absolutely understand the benefits of early years childcare, which is why we are so proud that it is a key part of this Government’s opportunity mission and is one of our milestones. We know that money invested today will pay dividends in the future. Labour Members we are absolutely committed to expanding and investing in early years childcare.

More broadly, this measure is also about investing in our young people. One in three young people is experiencing mental health problems, and one in 20 is too sick to work. That number is only rising. There has been a threefold increase in health problems that make it too difficult to do day-to-day activities. This generation of mine is without hope and without health. For those who have been struck down by hopelessness, and who are now too sick to work, our “Get Britain Working” programme, combining health, skills and employment support, is rebuilding confidence. It is helping people into good jobs, and is restoring dignity, purpose and sense of community to every person and place in our nation.

This Bill speaks to our governing philosophy, which is that those with the broadest shoulders should carry the heaviest load. As we have seen, we are changing our nation and rebuilding hope in our communities, our country, and indeed our democracy. We are building a country that gets better, rather than worse; where every person can get a good job; where every person can afford a decent home; and where every person can get the skills that they need, so that we can all live once again in a country where working hard means a decent life. That is what we are investing in, and that is why we are proud to raise revenue through the measure that we are debating today.

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[Ms Creasy]

I have worked with the hon. Lady on various issues, and I hope she will give me the latitude to expand my argument and set out my proposals, which we could move forward on together as a House. I do not doubt her sincerity, but I also recognise the fiscal destruction of the previous Government that we need to deal with, which means we need to tell the British public the truth about what needs to happen. Making unfunded promises is as bad as not promising to act.

Parent surveys show that a real difference is made when 30 hours of childcare is offered. That amount of childcare enables families to make choices about getting back into work. If we want to get to 30 hours by September next year, we need 60,000 additional childcare places and 29,000 extra members of staff. If we do not have fundamental root and branch reform of how we fund the provision of childcare, that will cost about £72 million extra a year on hiring staff alone. That is the challenge we face if we want to get this right.

I know how hard the Minister is working to get the economy growing again. I know he is going to hear pleas from every single sector about the impact of the national insurance changes; nobody should be under any illusion that they are not difficult changes. I make a plea for the childcare sector because I believe that in the end, it will pay for itself. If we are able to get more people back to work, especially mums, who all too often end up bearing the burden of childcare, we will be able to raise more taxes and there will be more investment as a result.

That is particularly true of the childcare sector because it is a people-intensive industry. Staffing costs make up 75% of a nursery’s running costs, compared with 30% for the average restaurant. Because the previous Government systemically failed to invest in childcare, the majority of childcare has been provided by the private sector. Some 85% of places are delivered outside the state sector. There is little flexibility on numbers in the sector, because ratios—the number of people looking after little people—matter. These are not businesses with small numbers of staff; an average nursery has 14 members of staff, which means the additional costs will be about £36,000 to £39,000 a year. Around £14,000 of that will be national insurance.

Many Members agree that we need to invest in that childcare and will be pleased to see this Government trying to address the balance. The damage done under the previous Government meant that 83% of nursery providers said the funding they received did not cover their costs. That is why closures increased by 50% in the last couple of years. This Government have already increased the funding for our nurseries, but while that takes account of increases in wages costs, it does not take account of the increases in national insurance.

I tabled new clause 4, which is about having a review of one element of all that, to ensure that we do not cut off our nose to spite our face when trying to get more people into work. We recognise that extra national insurance costs may have consequences, be they recruitment freezes, reduced staff training or even closures, at a time when we want the sector to expand. Indeed, the majority of nurseries have staff vacancies, so they need extra people already.

[Dave Doogan]

The hon. Lady is making a compelling case of logic as it applies to early years provision, and I do not think anybody in this place could argue with the logic she advances. Is it not so robust, however, that it also applies to primary care, hospices and charities, if it applies to nurseries?

[Ms Creasy]

I hope the hon. Gentleman recognises that I am talking about a specific function of the way in which the childcare sector operates and the fact that it generates public Exchequer funding when we get people back into work. My argument here is that we invest to save. This is specifically about childcare. I am sure the hon. Member has read new clause 4 in depth, by the look on his face.

[Dave Doogan]

indicated assent.

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[Chris Vince (Harlow) (Lab/Co-op)]

I start by thanking the Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury for all his work on the Bill.

The burden of tax has fallen disproportionately on the shoulders of working people for too long. Families across the country and in my constituency, who are already battling the cost of living crisis, have been left to carry the weight, while larger businesses and the wealthiest have been let off far too lightly. That cannot continue. This Labour Government believe in a fairer tax system, where larger businesses and the richest pay a little more in tax to help fund our NHS and our public services, which working people rely on. That is the right and fair choice.

The Tory record on investment in our NHS is terrible. I can see that in my constituency. Although Princess Alexandra hospital was on the list of 40 new hospitals proposed by the previous Government, when we came to power it turned out that the money for it was not there. I thank the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care for allowing me to constantly follow him around the Palace and lobby him on that point.

The decision on employer national insurance is difficult, but it is the right choice. Waking up on 5 July, we knew that we would have to take these difficult decisions, but in the long run we really will see the difference. Being tough now can bring about real change in the future.

It has not gone unnoticed that the small businesses and charities that form the backbone of our local economy need to be protected and valued. Here are a few things the Labour Government are doing to achieve just that. We have increased the employment allowance to £10,500 and expanded it to all eligible employers. As a result, we will see two remarkable things: the OBR expects 250,000 employers to benefit from these changes and an additional 820,000 employers to see no change at all. We are seeking to strike a balance.

My hon. Friend the Member for Earley and Woodley (Yuan Yang) mentioned Small Business Saturday. I recently visited a wonderful local charity called Stort Valley Gifting, a brilliant local business that sources local produce and makes up hampers. I have to declare an interest at this point, because that is where I am doing my Christmas shopping this year, but I would add that my predecessor, Robert Halfon, did the same thing.

Labour also recognises the vital role played by public sector employees in our schools, hospitals and councils. That is why we have committed to providing support for additional employer NIC costs, ensuring that our public services remain resilient and well-resourced not just for today, but for future generations. We can protect working people while making the wealthiest contribute their fair share, so that we all contribute our fair share. Everyone from every walk of life is included as these decisions are being debated and made. We can choose to invest in our NHS and our public services; we can choose growth and fairness; we can choose to rebuild the future for generations to come, instead of the instability that has held our country back for too long. If we want the benefits of this Budget, we must make the hard decisions to get there.

[Dave Doogan]

I rise to speak to defend Scotland’s NHS, including our GPs, hospices, care homes and nurseries, from this Labour Government’s national insurance tax hike, as well as to protect the charity and higher education sectors. I am proud of the amendments the SNP has tabled to the Bill to protect these vital services from the increase in national insurance contributions put forward by the Government. The fears are genuine and escalating over the job cuts and service reductions that will be the inevitable and plain and simple consequence of this fiscal madness.

We in the SNP have consistently highlighted the brutal impact that Labour’s tax rises will have on GPs, charities, care homes and other sectors, with organisations warning that deep cuts will be made to the services they provide—vital services that are no less essential to communities and individuals than secondary care services just because they are received in the community or from a charity. That is why we have tabled amendments 4, 5, 6 and 26 in my name and the names of SNP colleagues.

On higher education, the University of Edinburgh was last month reported to have opened a redundancy process for staff as a result of Labour’s tax hike, and Universities Scotland is warning of a potential £45 million tax burden for Scottish universities. Yet again, we see key sectors of the Scottish economy hammered by a London Treasury out of touch, out of ideas and, if this goes through, demonstrably out of control. Higher education, agriculture, and oil and gas are all demonstrably larger elements of the Scottish economy than they are of the English or UK economy. This Government, with NICs and other specific tax increases or allowance removals, are hammering particularly important elements of the Scottish economy. As usual, what England wants Scotland gets.

The Labour Government’s national insurance increase will be a disaster for Scotland’s healthcare providers, voluntary organisations, nurseries, universities and colleges, but who on the Labour Benches has come along to speak up for those organisations in Scotland? Nobody. Not one Labour Scottish MP made a speech to protect Scotland’s interests. But Labour MPs from Scotland were there to nod through and vote through the cut to the winter fuel payment, freezing Scotland’s pensioners; Labour’s bedroom tax, entrenching poverty in Scotland; Labour’s two-child limit, punishing the poorest in Scotland; taxing Scotland’s oil and gas sector to the brink of extinction; attacking Scottish agriculture; and gouging Scotch whisky. They were all here to make sure that that happened and to speak to that, so I will leave the people of Scotland to draw their own conclusions about this particular lack of activity from Scottish Labour MPs.

[Graham Stuart]

I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman for giving way. When did the SNP do an about-turn on Scottish oil and gas? As far as I can tell, it seemed as opposed to its continuation as the Labour party is now in government.

[Dave Doogan]

I thank the right hon. Gentleman for his intervention. I refer him to Hansard from the previous Parliament. The comments I have just made are entirely consistent with the comments I made in the last parliamentary term.

With each day that passes, we learn more about the damage Labour’s Budget will inflict on household bills, businesses and charities, yet despite those warnings the Labour Government are determined not to listen and are ploughing ahead with this devastating proposal. The SNP will always stand up and protect Scottish jobs, Scottish services and Scotland’s people. That is reflected in John Swinney’s budget—a balanced budget in the interests of the people of Scotland and the businesses of Scotland. That is the SNP way. We have done it this year and we have done it in every one of the 17 previous years we have been in the Scottish Government.

Do the UK Government understand how commissioned services work? We have heard that quite a lot this afternoon and it is becoming increasingly clear that, at best, they have a sketchy understanding of why vital services are provided by non-statutory service providers. What is going to happen when this measure unwinds into the real economy is that charities, GP surgeries, hospices and other vital elements of healthcare provision will not have reserves. They are already operating at the very margins of financial sustainability, so when the sums do not add up, they will have two choices. They will approach the commissioning authority that has commissioned their services to ask for an uplift in their fees. The answer will be no, because the money is not there. Alternatively, they will withdraw their services or draw down their services. Either way, it will be enormously challenging and extremely damaging for some of the most vulnerable in our society.

[Carla Lockhart (Upper Bann) (DUP)]

The hon. Gentleman is making a powerful speech. The Labour party has said in the main that it is the right choice to increase NICs. Like Scotland, Northern Ireland’s health and social care will be hardest hit. The Northern Ireland children’s hospice estimates that half a million pounds will be needed to cope with the NICs increase. This is a hospice that provides care for the most vulnerable in our society: children with cancer and children with life-limiting conditions. Does he agree that the measure will see the end of these excellent services, which are much needed in our communities?

[Dave Doogan]

I agree entirely with the hon. Member. There is no road back from that. The difficulty that I implore the Government to pay attention to is that when the damage that will be inflicted by this measure is inflicted by this measure, they cannot just say, “Oops, we got that wrong. If you wouldn’t mind all coming back and start delivering these commissioned services, we’ll admit we got it wrong.” When it’s gone, it’s gone. It is not acceptable that the Government are playing fast and loose with the safety net that exists in our communities and our society to catch the most vulnerable people and prevent absolute chaos. That is exactly what the Government are doing.

However, the Government should not take the hon. Lady’s word for it, or mine. We can listen to people who are at the coalface. This is primary evidence from the Scottish Huntington’s Association:

“The entire charity sector is increasingly burdened by climbing costs, funding issues, recruitment and retention challenges and an increased demand for services.

All too many have had to close their doors, with more expected to follow. Additional burdens being imposed by government at this juncture”,

the association says, are deeply unhelpful.

“Coming just weeks after the prime minister announced a ‘new partnership that can harness civil society’s full potential’ this must surely be an unfortunate oversight, and one that simply cannot be allowed to stand given the scale of its implications for the not-for-profit sector and the many thousands of people who depend upon it in the absence of alternative statutory services.”

It is not just the association that takes that view. Turning Point Scotland has advised that this measure alone will add £1.1 million to its costs overnight, and it comes at a time of a pressured environment, when many of its services are already running at a deficit. That is true of the voluntary sector, but also of the nursery and college sectors.

On healthcare, I wonder whether the Government understand the concept of whole-system costs. As I and many Members have said, when charities fold, as many of them will, the services that they were providing will no longer be there. Who will then provide that care? It will be the provider of last resort, secondary care. People will present themselves at hospitals, where there will be no room. It will be chaotic, but in a purely Treasury and fiscal sense, it will be an extremely expensive form of chaos, for which the Government, through the whole-system paradigm, will need to pick up the costs. I am not certain that the Minister has been properly briefed by his Treasury officials on what the risk assessment actually says about the human and financial costs of the change when this heads south. This is what happens when the Chancellor treats the real economy as her own personal political piggy-bank. It will not be possible to fix this once it has been broken.

I have some sympathy for the Minister in one respect. We have heard, and I will not repeat, the headline figure—the gross quantum that the Government expect to generate by lowering the threshold and increasing the rates of employer national insurance. By the time everyone who is in a position to adjust their business and employment characteristics to accommodate it has done so, by the time the Government have compensated elements of the public sector and by the time the economy has contracted to accommodate that, we are already down from £25-something billion to £10 billion-odd. That is a lot of pain to accept to gain £10 billion.

If the Government were to exclude or make provision for hospices, nurseries, the voluntary sector more generally and universities, that £10 billion would be reduced to an embarrassingly small figure, so they are stuck between a rock and a hard place. I nevertheless encourage them to have the courage of their convictions and put the interests of the people of these islands first, rather than the political expediency of careering headlong towards a cliff edge that is as plain as the nose on the end of your face and jumping over it anyway in order to save face—because the Government will not save face. There is no escape from the corner they have painted themselves into. They can either U-turn and incur the political costs, which I would recommend, given that they have just come through the door—they should be at the height of their political powers, but if this is the height of their political powers, goodness me!—or they can carry on regardless, and pick up the pieces of all the chaos that will be wreaked across the sector.

This incompetence, for it is incompetence, did not start when the Government walked through the doors of Nos. 10 and 11 Downing Street. It started back in the election campaign, when they proscribed the use of the single biggest lever in the Treasury’s toolkit to get additional funding. They said that they would not increase income tax on ordinary working people, although with these measures they will take away financial opportunities and, actually, people’s money through payroll changes anyway. It is smoke and mirrors. However, by painting themselves into that corner on income tax, they have created a situation in which they have to make the most damaging tax intervention possible, which is entirely contrary to their stated ambition of generating growth.

Quite a lot of Labour Members have said, “It’s all very well listening to the Opposition, but what would you do?” I will give them two really easy things that the Government could have done. If they had mirrored the income tax thresholds that the Scottish Government have introduced, they would have generated £19 billion. That would not have had a single impediment on the real economy, would not have choked off growth and would not have put primary care on the precipice. They could have done that. Or, if they had thought that they could get by on less than £19 billion—they will have to, because they will raise less than £10 billion from this measure—they could have just reversed the previous Government’s two cuts to employee’s national insurance. Judging by the arithmetic in this place, the Conservatives did not exactly get a brilliant political return on cutting employee’s national insurance twice in two quarters of one financial year. The Government could have reversed those cuts, which would have netted £10 billion—roughly where they are now, on aggregate—but no, they did not want to do that and they refuse to do so.