Oral Answers to Questions

Mel Stride Excerpts

Tuesday 17th May 2022 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

I call the Chair of the Treasury Committee.

[Mel Stride (Central Devon) (Con)]

Naturally, there has been criticism of the Bank of England, given the level of inflation and its inflation target, but among that criticism there have been reports that some in government, including perhaps one member of the Cabinet, have been suggesting that the independence of the Bank of England should be removed. Does my right hon. Friend agree that it is essential that our central bank is independent in order to maintain the credibility and integrity of our monetary policy? Will he give a categorical assurance to the House that there are no plans of any kind to restrain the independence of our central bank?

[Rishi Sunak]

I thank my right hon. Friend the Chair of the Select Committee for his important intervention. I agree with him wholeheartedly. While we face challenges at the moment, the record of 25 years of central bank independence speaks for itself, with an average inflation rate of exactly 2%. I know all colleagues will want to make sure that we return to that as swiftly as possible, and I can assure him that that is both my and the Governor’s ambition.

Tackling Short-term and Long-term Cost of Living Increases

Mel Stride Excerpts

Tuesday 17th May 2022 Commons Chamber

[Mel Stride (Central Devon) (Con)]

I rise to very much welcome this debate, which addresses one of the great challenges of our time: the cost of living. Right at the centre of that lies the rate of inflation, which many Members have referenced in the debate so far, and that responsibility is with the Bank of England. In very recent times, the Bank has come in for a good deal of criticism for apparently not having got on top of that rate of inflation. It is currently above 7% and will rise to 10% in the autumn, before falling back again next year. That is well detached from its target of 2%, so the question arises: is the Bank of England culpable for having missed that target to that extent? I want to speak—partially, at least—in defence of the Bank of England, which is one of the most important independent institutions in our country, and to make the following observations.

First, as the Chancellor has already pointed out, the level of inflation across the world is elevated. There are some exceptions to that, but most leading economies are facing very high levels of inflation. In fact, the United States, Spain and Germany have higher rates of inflation than we do in the United Kingdom, and our rate is broadly similar to that across the eurozone.

My second point is about what one can expect from monetary policy under the current circumstances. The main drivers of inflation are a war in Ukraine; surging energy prices; surging food prices; some of the effects of the unlocking of the economy and its rapid growth, and supply chain bottlenecks that developed as a consequence; and then what played out in the labour market as the economy opened up. Very few of those factors are amenable to being controlled through interest rates and monetary policy. Of course, it takes time for monetary policy to take effect. If interest rates are put up, it typically takes about a year or more, through the transmission mechanism, to have an effect on demand and to start to bear down on inflation.

For about 80% of the rise in inflation above the 2% target, therefore, we should not hold the Bank of England particularly culpable. The notions of those people—some of whom are on my side of the House—who have called into question the independence of the Bank of England as a consequence of high inflation are misplaced. We should firmly defend the Bank of England in that respect.

There is one area, the other perhaps 20% of the growth in inflation, which relates to what has happened in the labour market, where the Bank is at least partially culpable, because it was slow to establish the fact that the market was getting overheated. What appeared to be isolated areas, such as among HGV drivers and other pools of labour in the labour market, soon spilled over into a more general price increase across labour. The danger now is that we will have a wage-price spiral in which wages chase prices and, in turn, drive up wages further. There is a real danger that we are in a position where future expectations of inflation have become substantially de-anchored from that 2%, which will be a challenge in the medium and longer term.

Overall, however, it is extremely important that we have confidence in the Bank of England, imperfect though it is, and even though it is presiding over a situation in which there are high levels of price increases.

[Stephen Timms]

I agree with the right hon. Gentleman about the independence of the Bank of England. At the Liaison Committee in March, he suggested to the Prime Minister that there should be a one-off uprating of benefits, given that inflation is much higher than the 3.1% by which uprating was applied. I agree with him about that and I wonder whether he stands by that suggestion.

[Mel Stride]

I thank the right hon. Gentleman for that intervention, and I do indeed stand by that. I still believe that it is possible, in a relatively fiscally neutral manner, which would not require a fiscal loosening across the period of the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts, to smooth the way in which benefits are indexed. It seems particularly regrettable that benefits such as universal credit are tagged to a 3.1% increase, which goes back to what inflation was in September, given that we are now facing 8%, 9% or 10%-plus inflation. There is the possibility of smoothing that out, so that on the way up it becomes less painful for people, and some of it will be taken back as it all comes out in the wash for everyone down the line. I am happy to continue to work with him with that in mind.

That brings me to other fiscal measures that can be taken to ease things for our struggling constituents. We have heard about a windfall tax in great detail today, which I would support. Although I would not be as partisan as the way in which the right hon. Member for Doncaster North (Edward Miliband) made his case earlier at the Dispatch Box, I think the arguments that he has put forward are largely sensible. I am pleased that in turn the Chancellor has indicated that the door is at least partially open, albeit caveated on the investment performance of the companies concerned.

Unlike the Opposition, I think that it is important to look at the size of the civil service and to have an ambition to get it back to its size in about 2016 before a number of these different crises struck and we had to gear up the numbers involved. If we were to do that, it would be possible to save a total of £3.5 billion a year, which would be a useful amount to have.

I am sorry, Madam Deputy Speaker, but I have completely run out of time. I had much to say, as I know many other hon. Members will.

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Dame Rosie Winterton)]

I call the Chair of the Work and Pensions Committee, Stephen Timms.

Financial Statement

Mel Stride Excerpts

Wednesday 23rd March 2022 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

I call the Chair of the Treasury Committee, Mel Stride.

[Mel Stride (Central Devon) (Con)]

I broadly welcome my right hon. Friend’s statement. Of course, the devil will always be in the detail and we look forward to seeing him at the Treasury Committee next week, along with the OBR and various economists, including from the IFS, which he mentioned.

I welcome the cut to fuel duty. That will help motorists and consumers and be important for businesses. The VAT reduction relating to energy efficiency and solar is very important in the context of the sanctions on Russia and energy self-sufficiency, where we can achieve it. The hardship fund will be a very targeted measure, which is important, and small businesses will be delighted to have heard about the increase in the employment allowance to £5,000, which was a key ask of the Federation of Small Businesses.

Along with many others in the House, I would have liked the NI increases for next year to have been scrapped in their entirety. However, the threshold increase that my right hon. Friend announced today has been very significant—far more significant than I imagined it would be.

This is the big question that my right hon. Friend will be asked: in the context of the fiscal targets, which I think we all agree that we need to meet, has he used enough of the headroom now as opposed to having that as a hedge against future uncertainties, to which he alluded and which are very real, in terms of inflation, interest rates and the effect on the cost of Government borrowing? Will he say a bit more about the fiscal headroom—he will have had the advantage of seeing the OBR figures, which I have not—and his assessment of that, particularly around the deficit target?

On growth, my right hon. Friend pointed out the OBR downgrades, which are not surprising in a high inflationary environment, and the dampening effect that they will have on consumer demand. I was very pleased that he referred to his Mais lecture, because it will be essential for us to focus on innovation, people and driving up capital investment.

My right hon. Friend referred, I think, to a consultation on how to improve capital investment, on which we lag behind our G7 competitors. Will he tell us more about the timeline for that consultation and when he expects to be able to provide important certainty for businesses in that respect?

[Rishi Sunak]

I thank my right hon. Friend for his words of support. Let me briefly address his two substantive questions.

The tax plan published in the spring statement document today has a range of options for cutting taxes on investment. I look forward to having a conversation with my right hon. Friend, with colleagues and with the business community about the right way to achieve the outcomes that we want. The final decisions will be announced in the autumn Budget and will take effect in spring 2023 after the super deduction ends; I will not get into the detail now.

We have about 1% of GDP as headroom against both the stock and the flow rules on debt falling and on borrowing. On the borrowing side, that is approximately in line with previous Chancellors. On the stock rule, it is a bit less: the average over the past decade has been about 1.7%. The headroom includes the tax cut in 2024, which has been fully paid for and costed in these numbers. I believe that we are taking a responsible and pragmatic approach, but my right hon. Friend is right to point out the risks. The OBR has said that relatively small changes in the macroeconomic outlook could wipe out the entire headroom. That is why it is right that we continue to be disciplined on public spending.

Finance (No. 2) Bill

Mel Stride Excerpts

Report stage
Wednesday 2nd February 2022 Commons Chamber

[Lucy Frazer]

I understand the hon. Gentleman’s concern. The Bill has been tabled at this time because Ofgem has identified a risk related to energy suppliers in the circumstances that I have described. If that eventuality came to pass, there would be a significant loss to taxpayers if we did not introduce the legislation to prevent it. I understand his concern, but it is necessary for the Government to introduce this tax and to introduce it now, to ensure that these risks do not materialise.

[Mel Stride (Central Devon) (Con)]

Am I right in assuming that the purpose of the new tax is to discourage certain types of behaviour rather than to raise revenue?

[Lucy Frazer]

My right hon. Friend is right. We are not seeking to raise revenue; we are seeking to prevent certain circumstances from coming about, and we hope that this deterrent will be sufficient. Of course, if it were not, we would be able to recoup the money by way of tax. He will have spotted that the legislation is only in force for a short period to allow Ofgem to take regulatory action to ensure that we deal with this issue in the appropriate way through regulation rather than by bringing preventive action by way of a tax.

As I was saying, this new tax will have effect where steps are taken to obtain value from assets that materially contribute to a licensed energy supply business entering into special measures or to the increased costs of the business where it is a subject of special measures on or after 28 January this year and before 28 January next year. The tax will apply to the value of the assets that are held in connection with a licensed energy supply business where the assets in scope of the tax exceed £100 million, including assets held by connected persons. This is to ensure that the tax would capture only the very largest energy businesses. The tax will apply at a rate of 75% so as to be an active and effective deterrent against actions that are not in the public interest, and to recoup a substantial proportion of the costs that would otherwise fall to the Government under special administration measures in the event that such action was taken, as my right hon. Friend the Member for Central Devon (Mel Stride) pointed out.

In order to ensure that the tax is robust against avoidance activity, and given the sums at stake, the Government consider it necessary for Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs to be able to recover the tax from other persons if it cannot recover it from the relevant company. These joint and several liability provisions will apply only to companies under common ownership, as well as investors and persons connected with those investors in limited circumstances. Safeguards are also in place to permit certain affected persons to make a claim for relief to limit the amount of joint and several liability to the amount that they potentially benefit from such transactions. It is our hope and expectation that no business would pursue such action and that the tax will not be charged. The tax is a temporary and necessary safeguard that will protect the taxpayer and energy consumers in the interim period before the regulatory change takes effect.

The Government amendments will ensure that the legislation works as it should and protects the interests of the people of this country. I therefore commend to the House amendments 1 to 33, new clauses 1 and 3, and new schedules 1 and 2, and I urge Members to accept them.

Oral Answers to Questions

Mel Stride Excerpts

Tuesday 7th December 2021 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

I call the Chair of the Treasury Committee.

[Mel Stride (Central Devon) (Con)]

I am sure that my right hon. and learned Friend and HMRC are working very hard to ensure that the changes to the import processes coming in on 1 January run smoothly and do not result in lots of additional friction at the border. However, the Federation of Small Businesses has estimated that just one in four smaller companies is actually prepared for the changes that are about to happen. Is she aware of that particular issue? If she is, what action is she taking in the short time that remains?

[Lucy Frazer]

My right hon. Friend makes an important point. The Government and HMRC have taken significant action to ensure that hauliers and carriers are ready. HMRC has weekly meetings with strategic operators. It has conducted webinars for well over 1,000 haulage businesses and it sends monthly emails to more than 14,000 hauliers on the next steps. I appreciate that it might be that big businesses are more ready than small businesses, but we have done work there as well. I am very pleased to have met the Federation of Small Businesses about two weeks ago to discuss these issues.

Budget Resolutions

Mel Stride Excerpts

Wednesday 27th October 2021 Commons Chamber

[Mel Stride (Central Devon) (Con)]

I broadly welcome the Budget, which is the first my right hon. Friend the Chancellor has delivered in what we might call the second phase of this crisis, the first phase having been from a sharp contraction in the economy through to the recovery, during which period my right hon. Friend, I think it is fair to say—[Interruption.]

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Dame Eleanor Laing)]

Order. One moment. It is too noisy down here. It is not fair —the right hon. Gentleman has to be heard too.

[Mel Stride]

I was saying that in the first phase of this crisis, between the huge contraction in the economy and the recovery that we are now seeing, it is fair to say that my right hon. Friend the Chancellor did a pretty remarkable job to support the jobs market and to support jobs—not without criticism, incidentally, from my Committee, but overall it was a remarkable job.

My right hon. Friend has an even tougher job as he looks to the future, now having to deliver sustainable economic growth and ensure that the public finances are on a sustainable trajectory, as well as meeting all the other objectives the Government rightly have on levelling up, net zero and so on.

[Robert Halfon (Harlow) (Con)]

My right hon. Friend mentions levelling up. Does he not agree that this is a real workers’ budget? The funds for skills and schools will transform the prospects of our young people and our adults, and let them climb the ladder of opportunity to get skills, security, prosperity and jobs for the future.

[Mel Stride]

My right hon. Friend is absolutely correct about skills. He, of course, through his Committee, has done so much to promote that agenda, which I will come to momentarily, but the background is extremely tough.

While the Chancellor is right to point out that the deficit is falling, it is none the less very highly elevated compared with historical measures. The debt, in financial terms at least, is at a record level of £2.2 billion, and the economy has the headwinds of supply chain bottlenecks and the mismatch between demand and supply that we are seeing in parts of the labour force.

However, there are reasons to be cheerful, which my right hon. Friend outlined. Those are the OBR’s revised forecast showing that growth is much stronger this year—I think the Chancellor suggested 6.5%, compared with the March forecast of just 4%—and the scarring downgrade from 3% to 2%. By my calculation, that is probably worth about £10 billion or thereabouts per year; it is a significant achievement. All that has been achieved through the hard work of the last 18 months to two years. I do not think we should take that away from my right hon. Friend.

That has left my right hon. Friend with some breathing space, and he recognises that there are many challenges facing the economy and uncertainties going forward. A big test as we unpack the Budget is what he has done with that additional headroom. Not surprisingly, he has spent quite a lot of it. It appears to me that, with his fiscal rule of keeping day to day expenditure without borrowing and debt coming down as a percentage of GDP, he has headroom of about £25 billion in 2024-25 on the net debt target, which is about 0.9% of GDP, with the OBR economic and fiscal outlook suggesting he has a 55% to 60% chance of hitting that particular metric. The Committee will want to look very closely at how prudent an approach my right hon. Friend has taken to the Budget.

I see my hon. Friend the Member for Basildon and Billericay (Mr Baron) itching to intervene, so I give way to him.

[Mr John Baron (Basildon and Billericay) (Con)]

I am listening intently. I do believe that the Government have done extraordinarily well in raising the national living wage as part of that headroom. That is a major step towards a high-wage, high-tech economy, and it bolsters our one nation agenda, which is to be applauded.

[Mel Stride]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right. I will come to the matter of wages and wage growth momentarily, but let me dwell on the challenges facing the economy.

Another thing that the OBR points out is the increased sensitivity to interest rate rises—the Chancellor made this point—and the damage that they can do to the public finances. I think my right hon. Friend gave the example of a 1% rise leading to a £23 billion increase in debt servicing costs. To put that in perspective, it would wipe out the value of the corporation tax increases and income tax threshold freezes that my right hon. Friend announced in the last Budget. That would be gone in one enormous gulp, so we must be careful about the vulnerability we have. Though we have low interest rates, and interest rates might move up in baby steps, that applies to a very large debt indeed.

Let me touch on inflation—I am pleased that my right hon. Friend spent quite a lot of time on it during his speech—and its impact on interest rates. We have already seen the Monetary Policy Committee beginning to divide on whether rates should go up, and there is an expectation, certainly in the markets, that rates will start to increase. We have seen 10-year gilts going up in more recent times, and it is possible that quantitative easing will start to unwind —perhaps passively initially—when we reach a certain trigger level of interest rates, so it is important that this credible plan is there to deliver on those fiscal targets.

The history, however, is not good in that respect. We have had Chancellor after Chancellor failing to meet their fiscal targets; they have either abandoned them completely or delayed or modified them in some form. Depending on what happens to demand in the economy relative to supply, there may be a case for fiscal stimulus even further down the line. One thinks of the removal of the universal credit uplift, the energy price increases, the labour market demand-supply mismatches and the rise in taxes, often taking demand out of the economy. None the less, and setting that to one side, the Chancellor’s default position must be to stick to those fiscal targets and resist the huge cacophony of demands for more and more expenditure, particularly the day-to-day expenditure that he is rightly targeting in his fiscal rules.

Some of those demands might end up being necessary. If we do not get back to the pattern of demand for public transport that we had before we locked down, it is conceivable that further subsidy will need to go to the public transport sector. Other areas, such as the health service, might have additional demands, but I point out to my right hon. Friend—he knows this more than most —that the NHS public expenditure take has risen in the last 10 years from 32% to 42%. He must get very good at saying no to Ministers when it is necessary to do so, and telling them to go back to their Departments, work harder and get more out of what they are given. That is a lesson for us all, incidentally, particularly those of us on this side of the House.

If we fail in that endeavour and inflation takes off, interest rates go through the roof, the cost of servicing our debt becomes ruinous and international markets lose faith in our economy, we will be back broadly where we were in 1992 when we had Black Wednesday. Conservative Members will remember the long, hard lesson of that: it took us a generation to re-establish our ability to look the electorate in the eye and say, “We can offer a fiscally responsible Government.”

There were some announcements on tax today. May I say first that the drop in the bank surcharge is absolutely the right thing to do? We are putting corporation tax rates up to 25% from 19%, so it would be absurd to cripple our financial institutions with uncompetitive international tax rates.

I was particularly delighted by the shift in the universal credit taper rate from 63% to 55%. That will help countless low-paid families to earn more and keep more of their money, and encourage more people into work. When I was a Treasury Minister, we looked endlessly at this and I pushed really hard on it. I know how expensive it is to do that—my right hon. Friend the Chancellor suggested £2 billion a year—so I take my hat off to him for having grasped that particular nettle.

My right hon. Friend is also right to set out an aspiration to get taxes down before the end of this Parliament. The same pattern occurred under Lady Thatcher, who is much referred to when we talk about tax. In the early years of the Thatcher Government, the tax burden rose quite strongly, and it was my right hon. Friend’s hero Lord Lawson who was able to bring tax rates down. Let us hope that my right hon. Friend is in a position to emulate that in due course.

I turn briefly to inflation, which is right at the core of what is happening in the economy. The threat to the public finances from inflation cannot be overstated. The big debate now is whether price surges and increases in inflationary expectations will be transitory or more persistent. My right hon. Friend referred to the surge in demand relative to supply, which of course will lead to price increases; all else being equal, one might imagine that it will pass relatively quickly.

We have seen the commodity, transport and energy price increases that my right hon. Friend referred to, but there are other price increases that we might expect to be stickier. There are bottlenecks that are often outside our control—a south-east Asian chip manufacturer can have a bottleneck that results in our being unable to produce cars in the United Kingdom. Structurally, the labour market has changed: as a consequence of the pandemic, there is now greater demand for goods relative to services. It will take time to mop that up.

The Bank of England MPC has expressed increasing concerns, in different ways, about inflation and has been constantly deferring the moment at which it believes inflation will peak. There is a debate as to when deferred “transitory” becomes “persistent”, but the huge danger is that we will go into a wage price spiral. One way in which that might happen is if we talk up wages by inducing companies to put them up without a coincident increase in productivity. That will simply feed the inflationary tiger. We have to be very careful on that point.

[John Redwood (Wokingham) (Con)]

Does my right hon. Friend agree that we need to be very careful about believing any of these forecasts from the OBR and the Bank of England? They said that inflation would be down at under 2% just a few months ago and have now had to change their mind. Does he also agree that when Lord Lawson cut income tax rates, we had a surge of extra revenue?

[Mel Stride]

It is certainly the case that the Bank of England’s projections on inflation have been under-baked. In fact, if we go back in time, we can see that its recent revisions have been more dramatic, which really illustrates my point. I have a feeling that there will be rather more inflationary pressure than many people imagine.

Some of the drivers of inflation are outside the control of my right hon. Friend the Chancellor, but some are very much within it. One of those is immigration. I totally accept the comment from my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister that we do not want to instinctively

“reach for that…lever of uncontrolled immigration”.

He is absolutely right: this country left the EU to get control of our immigration. However, what we must not do is avoid pulling the lever where there are genuine pinch points in the labour market in the shorter term. If we do not act to bring in skills if necessary, we will simply encumber businesses in a way that may mean many going out of business, and replace them with imports, which can also be inflationary.

The other such area is skills. Further to the point that the Chair of the Select Committee on Education, my right hon. Friend the Member for Harlow (Robert Halfon), made about the importance of skills, I was really pleased by the announcements from my right hon. Friend the Chancellor about post-16 T-levels and lifelong learning. Those announcements are vital to repurposing the workforce to get the challenges of the future sorted.

In the longer term, there is a huge opportunity for us in this country. We are a world leader in life sciences, FinTech, financial services and the digital sector and we have opportunities in artificial intelligence, robotics and genetics, but if we are to grasp those opportunities, we have to get the level of business investment up. I think that my right hon. Friend referred to that level increasing over time; that may be true, but it is still quite a long way below where it ought to be, looking at it historically.

The super deduction is a very important move that the Chancellor has already made, and the extension of the annual investment allowance to 2023 is very welcome, but I think we may need to look even deeper at how, beyond the end of the super deduction, we can continue to see business investment rise.

On research and development, it seems to me that in the plethora of announcements, figures, dates, schemes and adjustments to relief that my right hon. Friend identified, we may have slipped on our target of hitting £22 billion by 2024-25—if I heard him correctly, it has slipped to 2026-27—and I am not quite sure where we are on our target of 2.4% of GDP by 2027. Those are vital targets for us to meet in the longer term.

Finally, there needs to be an overarching examination of how the recovery is balanced. Those hit hardest by the pandemic have been the poorest in our society, who are much more likely to have faced the impact of lockdown and loss of income, and young people. My Committee will look very closely at all the issues that I have raised, including that point.

Once again, I welcome the Budget. The Chancellor has been in a very difficult position and I think he has put forward a very positive set of proposals. The devil will be in the detail; my Committee will look forward to examining that detail, including with my right hon. Friend on Monday.

[Several hon. Members rose—]

Health and Social Care Levy

Mel Stride Excerpts

1st reading
Wednesday 8th September 2021 Commons Chamber

[Mel Stride (Central Devon) (Con)]

I rise to welcome, broadly, the motion. It seems to me that social care is one of those issues that parties of both colours have grappled with for many years, yet now we are at last at the point where a Government have the courage and are sensible enough to actually come forward with some realistic proposals. As to the breaking of manifesto commitments, no party ever wishes to do that, but listening to the Opposition it seems to me as if the global pandemic never occurred, as if the economy never shrank by the greatest level since 1709 during the great frost of that year, as if millions of jobs were never imperilled, and as if this Government never had to step in fiscally in a way that probably no Government outside wartime have ever had to do, and with such positive effects.

When it comes to the honesty or otherwise of what the Government have done, I think they have been upfront, very clear and very honest in making it clear that they have broken that commitment, unlike, I have to say, the less straightforward way in which, repeatedly in this debate, the Opposition and the shadow Chancellor have ducked the fundamental question: what is the Opposition’s alternative plan? In response to an intervention by my hon. Friend the Member for Sevenoaks (Laura Trott), the shadow Chancellor, when asked why Labour had supported an increase in national insurance in 2003, said, “Well, we had a plan.” I humbly remind her that that was 18 years ago. What we need to see now is a plan from the Opposition, as well as the criticism.

[Chris Bryant]

The right hon. Gentleman and I have known each other for a very long time. I just hope that he could explain to my constituents why it is right that practically everybody in the Rhondda would have to sell their home to meet the £86,000 cost, whereas next to nobody would have to do so in his constituency.

[Mel Stride]

First, the hon. Gentleman’s knowledge of my constituency is obviously rather deficient, because I expect that mine shares many characteristics in common with his. I do not dispute the fact that any major fiscal move, such as putting up national insurance and bringing in this levy in this manner, will have associated complexities and difficulties. My pledge to the House is that the Treasury Committee will, I am sure, after private discussion, decide that we wish to look more closely at a number of the issues that are being raised in this debate, including the one that he mentioned.

Let us be honest about the options that were available to the Treasury. How could we have squared the circle and funded £10 billion-plus a year? The first thing that the Treasury could have done is to seek to cut expenditure in other areas, yet I have no doubt that if it came forward with any proposals of that nature, the Opposition would have fiercely resisted that as austerity all over again. We have to understand that on the current projections, there are many unfunded commitments, including, for example, keeping our railways going, going for net zero, additional funding that will be needed for school catch-up and so on.

[Peter Grant (Glenrothes) (SNP)]

Given the right hon. Gentleman’s experience on the Treasury Committee, does he not agree that a tax hike of this scale could—if it was necessary—be much more fairly and equitably carried out if the tax burden was spread across a number of different taxes, rather than 100% of the burden being landed on one single, narrowly based tax?

[Mel Stride]

I will come back to the hon. Gentleman’s point, but let me just stick with the options. The second option was to lean into growth, to assume that we could grow our way out of this problem. We have just had a huge contraction of the economy. We are not yet back up to the pre-pandemic level, although the Bank of England thinks that we may arrive at that point some time towards the end of the year, and we have many headwinds to growth ahead of us, not least the bottlenecks in supply chains, the labour shortages that we have witnessed in certain areas, and many other issues.

The third thing that the Treasury could have done is to borrow more money, and that is probably what the Opposition would have done in this situation. Despite the fact that the Bank of England now seems to feel that there is more money—I suspect that the Office for Budget Responsibility will confirm that around the time of the Budget— because the economy is doing a bit better than we expected, probably to the tune of about £25 billion, it would be a very brave Chancellor who started to borrow yet more and more, knowing that one day it is possible that the markets might turn around and look at the United Kingdom and decide that they no longer have confidence to lend to us. That would be a very dark day.

[John Redwood]

Will my right hon. Friend give way?

[Mel Stride]

I will not, actually, because I am very low on time.

That is the sword of Damocles that hangs regularly over the head of our Chancellor, so that leads us to taxation. If we look at taxation and the amounts involved here, there are only three taxes that we could consider. About two thirds of all tax is raised through income tax, national insurance and VAT. We then ask ourselves, “What criteria are we going to apply to the tax measures to test whether they are the right ones or not?” There are at least two. One is that we should look after the least advantaged in our society—the lowest-paid—and the second is that we should look after those who are the youngest, who have borne the greatest brunt of the economic consequences of the pandemic.

[Matt Rodda (Reading East) (Lab)]

Will the right hon. Gentleman give way?

[Mel Stride]

I will not—I am very short on time. We are looking to the younger generations, to some significant degree, to fund predominantly the needs of elderly people and social care. If we look at those taxes, income tax rises would have been very progressive—there is no doubt about that. We would have had to have about twice the level of increase that we are looking at with national insurance to have raised the same amount of money. I think we need—the Minister made this point—a UK-wide solution to this, not one based on income tax, where, of course, elements of income tax are devolved to other nations across the United Kingdom.

If we put up VAT, that would be hugely regressive, particularly at the level of income received rather than expenditure. That would therefore have been wrong. We are also up at 20%, I think—near the upper limit of where VAT should be, given the distortionary consequences of going further.

That inevitably leads us to national insurance, just what Labour was led to in 2003. The original proposal, it seems to me, failed both of my tests. If we just put up national insurance, it would have been regressive. It would have hit the poorest hardest, but what is right about the Chancellor’s approach is that he has extended it to those beyond the state retirement age and those receiving income by way of dividends. That critical move makes this, in general, the right approach.

There are many issues that the Committee will no doubt look at. One of them is that a regrettable consequence of the increase in the employer’s national insurance rate is that it will exacerbate the so-called “three people problem”, whereby the different tax treatment of the employed, the self-employed and those receiving income through their own company will be widened, with consequences for IR35. I am out of time, but I support this motion today.

Oral Answers to Questions

Mel Stride Excerpts

Tuesday 7th September 2021 Commons Chamber

[Steve Barclay]

A key way to tackle poverty is to get people into work and then skill them up in their jobs. That is what we have set out through the plan for jobs, and that plan is working. Ultimately, if that is the priority of the Scottish Government, why are they not using the powers they have to prioritise it?

[Mel Stride (Central Devon) (Con)]

Does my right hon. Friend agree that it is difficult to justify raising national insurance to fund social care for the predominantly elderly, when the impact of that tax rise would fall mainly on young people and those who are earning little in the workforce? Does he also recognise that those two groups are the very groups that have been most impacted by the economic consequences of the pandemic?

[Steve Barclay]

As my right hon. Friend knows, the Prime Minister will make a statement on this matter shortly, but what he and I would agree on is that the best way is to grow the economy, drive productivity, get people into work and skill them up through work. That is what the plan for jobs is doing, alongside the £600 billion investment in infrastructure over the course of this Parliament as part of levelling up and our commitment to net zero. We need to grow the economy, skill up the workforce and get those who have been impacted by the pandemic back into work as quickly as possible.

Oral Answers to Questions

Mel Stride Excerpts

Tuesday 22nd June 2021 Commons Chamber

[Rishi Sunak]

The hon. Lady is wrong, because the Government did no such thing. Indeed, guidance on usage of the furlough scheme was there in black and white—I am looking at it—and plain for everyone to see from the start. At the beginning of this crisis we improved the way that statutory sick pay works to deal with self-isolation. That was one of the earliest steps we took. We then introduced a rebate scheme for small and medium-sized businesses, to claim back the cost of statutory sick pay for isolating employees from the Government. We also introduced a £500 self-isolation payment, which once the isolation period reduced from 14 to 10 days increased in value by 30% and is now worth at least the national living wage to a worker, if not 20% or 30% more, depending on how many days they isolate for. That shows that the Government are supporting those who need to self-isolate. They did so at the beginning of this crisis, and they will continue to do so until the end.

[Mel Stride (Central Devon) (Con) [V]]

Given the rapid pace of our economic recovery and the plans for the further reopening of the economy, I support my right hon. Friend’s decision to phase out furlough by the end of September. However, does he accept that a small number of sectors are likely to require yet further support after that time—not least the travel sector, whose revenues, according to evidence received by the Treasury Committee, have suffered a 90% fall during the crisis?

[Rishi Sunak]

My right hon. Friend is right to highlight the difficult circumstances facing that sector, which is why I think in aggregate more than £7 billion of support has been provided to the sector through various means. He will know that there are some particularly large companies that talk to the Government on a bilateral basis. It would not be appropriate for me to comment on those conversations, but he will of course be aware of the support we have put in place, for example, for regional airports, the vast majority of which are paying no business rates for the first half of this year. As he would expect, we keep everything under review.

Oral Answers to Questions

Mel Stride Excerpts

Tuesday 27th April 2021 Commons Chamber

[Rishi Sunak]

What I believe to be a more noble objective is to focus on the day-to-day concerns of the Scottish people at this difficult time, which involves making sure that the economy recovers, that the vaccines are rolled out and, of course, that our children receive the education they deserve. These are the issues that I know the Scottish people will care most about in the coming weeks.

[Mel Stride (Central Devon) (Con) [V]]

Due to the increasing concentration of wealth in older generations, the value of the average inheritance received by younger generations is becoming significantly greater through time. Does my right hon. Friend recognise this trend and the fact that it means that living standards will increasingly be determined not by skill, entrepreneurship and hard work but by chance, which will have a detrimental impact on social mobility? While it is absolutely right that families can pass on wealth to their loved ones, does my right hon. Friend none the less recognise the strong trend here, and if so, what steps might he consider taking to address this?

[Rishi Sunak]

I would say two things to my right hon. Friend. First, he will know that in the Budget we recently froze the inheritance tax thresholds for four years, which will provide some alleviation on the concern that he mentioned. Secondly, I believe that the best way to drive social mobility in our society is to provide everyone with the skills and education they need to make a better life for themselves, which is what this Government are committed to delivering.