Tackling Short-term and Long-term Cost of Living Increases

Stephen Timms Excerpts

Tuesday 17th May 2022 Commons Chamber

[Rishi Sunak]

I will give way in a second.

To suggest that no help is available, as some have said today, is both misleading and irresponsible.

[Stephen Timms (East Ham) (Lab)]

The other day, the Chancellor said that he could not increase benefits because of IT problems. At the start of the pandemic, quite rightly, he increased universal credit by £20 a week. Will he do that again?

[Rishi Sunak]

Given the right hon. Gentleman’s experience, he will know, perhaps better than me, that there are multiple different benefits on multiple different systems, and while universal credit does have the flexibility of being changed at different times—a policy, by the way, that the Labour party opposed at every step of the way—the remainder of benefits and pensions cannot be uprated mid-year. I am sure that my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions will speak to that later.

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[Mel Stride (Central Devon) (Con)]

I rise to very much welcome this debate, which addresses one of the great challenges of our time: the cost of living. Right at the centre of that lies the rate of inflation, which many Members have referenced in the debate so far, and that responsibility is with the Bank of England. In very recent times, the Bank has come in for a good deal of criticism for apparently not having got on top of that rate of inflation. It is currently above 7% and will rise to 10% in the autumn, before falling back again next year. That is well detached from its target of 2%, so the question arises: is the Bank of England culpable for having missed that target to that extent? I want to speak—partially, at least—in defence of the Bank of England, which is one of the most important independent institutions in our country, and to make the following observations.

First, as the Chancellor has already pointed out, the level of inflation across the world is elevated. There are some exceptions to that, but most leading economies are facing very high levels of inflation. In fact, the United States, Spain and Germany have higher rates of inflation than we do in the United Kingdom, and our rate is broadly similar to that across the eurozone.

My second point is about what one can expect from monetary policy under the current circumstances. The main drivers of inflation are a war in Ukraine; surging energy prices; surging food prices; some of the effects of the unlocking of the economy and its rapid growth, and supply chain bottlenecks that developed as a consequence; and then what played out in the labour market as the economy opened up. Very few of those factors are amenable to being controlled through interest rates and monetary policy. Of course, it takes time for monetary policy to take effect. If interest rates are put up, it typically takes about a year or more, through the transmission mechanism, to have an effect on demand and to start to bear down on inflation.

For about 80% of the rise in inflation above the 2% target, therefore, we should not hold the Bank of England particularly culpable. The notions of those people—some of whom are on my side of the House—who have called into question the independence of the Bank of England as a consequence of high inflation are misplaced. We should firmly defend the Bank of England in that respect.

There is one area, the other perhaps 20% of the growth in inflation, which relates to what has happened in the labour market, where the Bank is at least partially culpable, because it was slow to establish the fact that the market was getting overheated. What appeared to be isolated areas, such as among HGV drivers and other pools of labour in the labour market, soon spilled over into a more general price increase across labour. The danger now is that we will have a wage-price spiral in which wages chase prices and, in turn, drive up wages further. There is a real danger that we are in a position where future expectations of inflation have become substantially de-anchored from that 2%, which will be a challenge in the medium and longer term.

Overall, however, it is extremely important that we have confidence in the Bank of England, imperfect though it is, and even though it is presiding over a situation in which there are high levels of price increases.

[Stephen Timms]

I agree with the right hon. Gentleman about the independence of the Bank of England. At the Liaison Committee in March, he suggested to the Prime Minister that there should be a one-off uprating of benefits, given that inflation is much higher than the 3.1% by which uprating was applied. I agree with him about that and I wonder whether he stands by that suggestion.

[Mel Stride]

I thank the right hon. Gentleman for that intervention, and I do indeed stand by that. I still believe that it is possible, in a relatively fiscally neutral manner, which would not require a fiscal loosening across the period of the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts, to smooth the way in which benefits are indexed. It seems particularly regrettable that benefits such as universal credit are tagged to a 3.1% increase, which goes back to what inflation was in September, given that we are now facing 8%, 9% or 10%-plus inflation. There is the possibility of smoothing that out, so that on the way up it becomes less painful for people, and some of it will be taken back as it all comes out in the wash for everyone down the line. I am happy to continue to work with him with that in mind.

That brings me to other fiscal measures that can be taken to ease things for our struggling constituents. We have heard about a windfall tax in great detail today, which I would support. Although I would not be as partisan as the way in which the right hon. Member for Doncaster North (Edward Miliband) made his case earlier at the Dispatch Box, I think the arguments that he has put forward are largely sensible. I am pleased that in turn the Chancellor has indicated that the door is at least partially open, albeit caveated on the investment performance of the companies concerned.

Unlike the Opposition, I think that it is important to look at the size of the civil service and to have an ambition to get it back to its size in about 2016 before a number of these different crises struck and we had to gear up the numbers involved. If we were to do that, it would be possible to save a total of £3.5 billion a year, which would be a useful amount to have.

I am sorry, Madam Deputy Speaker, but I have completely run out of time. I had much to say, as I know many other hon. Members will.

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[Stephen Timms (East Ham) (Lab)]

I am pleased to follow the right hon. Member for Central Devon (Mel Stride), who chairs the Treasury Committee. I agree with much of what he said.

Cost of living rises affect everybody. The Work and Pensions Committee focuses on families with the lowest incomes who depend on social security. The prospects for them at the moment are bleak. The Committee argued—unanimously, cross-party—against the removal of the £20 a week uplift in universal credit last October. The Government went ahead anyway and cut the main benefit rate to the lowest real-terms level for more than 30 years. As a proportion of average earnings, it is lower now than when Lloyd George introduced unemployment benefit in 1911. Benefits are at a historically low level and no Minister can justify that—we have asked.

We now have a massive cost of living surge. Citizens Advice reports that a single unemployed person spent 15% of their benefit on energy bills two years ago. It is now 25% and it will be 50%—just on energy—when the cap goes up again in October. How can people pay their other bills, which are also going up? National Energy Action told the Select Committee that, after last month’s energy price rises, 6.5 million UK households are in fuel poverty. It is a disaster for families with long-term health problems; being cold at home makes respiratory and circulatory problems much worse.

The Gracious Speech provided no help at all to people dependent on benefits. At the Liaison Committee, I asked the Prime Minister why the spring statement did nothing. His answer was that

“we want to support people into work wherever possible”,

but a large number of people cannot work and they have to survive too. Surely, the Government must now respond to the immense pressure on those families.

Mike Brewer of the Resolution Foundation pointed out to our Committee the obvious problem with benefits going up by 3.1%, as they did last month, when inflation is 8% and rising. He proposed revisiting uprating, immediately for universal credit, as the Chancellor confirmed that he could and as he did at the beginning of the pandemic, and in October for those benefits needing longer—there are some of those, as he has pointed out to the House. That must surely now be done.

Universal credit was raised by £20 a week before, so the Chancellor should do it again. I agree with the Chair of the Treasury Committee, who has just reaffirmed the case for an interim uprating, about which he pressed the Prime Minister at the Liaison Committee. The Prime Minister said that he would look at it. It is urgent.

Crisis highlighted that local housing allowance rates have been frozen for two years in a row. Average rents went up by 8.3% just in the last three months of last year. Families on the breadline face an average £372 deficit between the local housing allowance and the cheapest rents in their area. In research just published, Lloyds Bank Foundation reports that 44% of universal credit recipients are having money deducted, averaging £78 a month—nearly a fifth of what single over-25s can claim. Deductions are for advance repayments, old tax credit overpayments, energy or rent arrears. The foundation says that that is

“driving impoverishment and further debt, particularly hitting the most vulnerable.”

We need major changes, especially to the five-week wait for a first regular universal credit payment, which forces people to take out an advance.

Pensioner poverty is now surging. We know that, in 2019-20, 850,000 families entitled to pension credit did not claim it. We need real vigour behind raising take-up. The Department for Work and Pensions should have a take-up target for pension credit and a plan to deliver it. In 2010-11, the DWP trialled automatic payments of pension credit, and it should do that again.

The least well-off in our society need urgent help. As Sir John Major said yesterday:

“Everyone needs to believe that The State cares about them”,

too. There is no time to lose.

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[Dr Coffey]

The hon. Gentleman is trying to be clever, as he knows the answer is that it is a redistribution within the energy policy. [Interruption.] Would he rather not have it? Would he rather be with his fellow SNP people who voted against any rise in benefits at all? That is what several of his colleagues did. They did not vote for a lift in benefits.

After a decade of rising employment, we are building on our track record. We are ensuring that people have stronger incentives to work and can keep more of what they earn. Some 1.7 million working people on universal credit are, on average, £1,000 a year better off following our cut to the taper rate. Last month’s 6.6% rise in the national living wage has provided the lowest paid with an increase of £1,000 a year in their income, and in July the increase in the national insurance threshold will benefit 30 million working people, with a typical employee saving over £330 a year.

[Stephen Timms]

The Secretary of State mentioned today’s labour market statistics. Will she confirm that they show there are now half a million fewer people in employment than before the pandemic?

[Dr Coffey]

In my discussions with the chief statistician, he has said that more people are on the payroll than ever before. That is good news. I am conscious that there are people who are economically inactive, and the Government will set out how to challenge that. As the right hon. Gentleman knows, my main priority is those people to whom we pay benefits to look for work and making sure they get into work, but of course we will be extending our activity to try to get people back into the marketplace who have dropped out since the covid pandemic.

As I pointed out, 30 million working people will benefit from the rise in the national insurance threshold in July. With a record number of vacancies in the economy, we want more people to have the benefits that work brings. That is why we are focused on getting more people into and progressing in jobs, where they can boost their pay, prospects and prosperity. Building on our plan for jobs, our Way to Work scheme is getting people into jobs even more quickly, with the aim of getting half a million claimants into work by June. We can see a kind of magic in our jobcentres, as people really want to break free from that unemployment poverty trap. By the end of April we were more than halfway to our goal, and we know there is more to do. But our Way to Work scheme is helping people move into any job now, to get a better job tomorrow and to build a longer-term career. To help people lift off at work when they land a job, we are rolling out extra support for claimants to build the skills they need to progress in work.

All of this is underpinned by our programme to deliver on what Parliament voted for in 2012: to replace all the legacy benefits with universal credit, because people will always be better off working than not working, unless they cannot work. That is the magic of UC, unlike the cliff edges of tax credits, which stop people progressing the amount of time and skills they get in work. So we are getting on with it, having resumed the process to complete the move to UC by 2024. Given that we estimate that two thirds of people on tax credits would receive a higher entitlement on UC, this will be important in helping to increase incomes.

All of this stands in contrast to what is put forward by those on the Opposition Benches. I believe the Leader of the Opposition would scrap UC—it was certainly in his pledges when seeking to be elected as Leader of the Opposition. They would undo a decade a progress, leave people further from the labour market and penalise the taxpayer by failing to realise the benefits of a modern system.

My right hon. Friend the Prime Minister summed up our focus in his speech last Tuesday at the start of our debates on the Gracious Speech: “Jobs, jobs, jobs!”. We are talking about high-skill and high-wage jobs. These are clearly challenging times, but we will continue to provide the leadership needed to rise to those times, continuing to drive up the skills our economy needs and employment prospects across the country, and putting more pounds in people’s pockets. This Queen’s Speech will grow the economy, level up our country, spread opportunity, and strengthen security and prosperity for all the British people, through the covid aftershocks and for decades to come. We therefore continue to commend the Loyal Address, unamended, to the House.

Question put, That the amendment be made.