National Insurance Contributions (Secondary Class 1 Contributions) Bill

Lord Livermore Excerpts

2nd reading
Monday 6th January 2025 Lords Chamber

Moved by

[Lord Livermore]

That the Bill be now read a second time.

[The Financial Secretary to the Treasury (Lord Livermore) (Lab)]

My Lords, I wish all noble Lords a happy new year. It is a pleasure to open this debate. I am aware that the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, has tabled a regret amendment expressing concern about the measures in the Bill. While I of course understand and respect the points raised in it, this Government had to take some very difficult decisions—not decisions we wanted to take, but necessary decisions to clear up the mess we inherited.

In the time I have available today, I will seek to explain why not acting was simply not an option, and why this Bill is necessary to repair the public finances, while protecting working people and rebuilding our public services.

I will begin by setting out the economic context in which the Budget decisions contained in this Bill were taken. As noble Lords will know, on her arrival at the Treasury last July, the Chancellor was informed of a £22 billion black hole in the public finances—a series of commitments made by the previous Government which they did not fund and did not disclose. Ahead of the Budget, the independent Office for Budget Responsibility had conducted a review into the circumstances surrounding a meeting it held with the Treasury on 8 February last year, at which the previous Government were obliged to disclose all unfunded pressure against the reserve.

The OBR’s review established that at that point the previous Government concealed £9.5 billion. However, as we now know, during the remaining five months they had left in office, the previous Government continued to amass unfunded commitments, which they did not disclose. By the time of the spring Budget, Treasury records show these had reached £16.3 billion. By July, they had reached £22 billion.

The Treasury has provided to the OBR a line-by-line breakdown of these unfunded commitments: 260 separate pressures which the previous Government did not fund and did not disclose. Neither did they make any provision for costs they knew would materialise, including £11.8 billion to compensate victims of the infected blood scandal, and £1.8 billion to compensate victims of the Post Office Horizon scandal.

The country inherited not just broken public finances but broken public services: NHS waiting lists at record levels, children in Portakabins as school roofs crumbled and rivers filled with polluted waste. Yet, since 2021, there had been no spending review and no detailed plans for departmental spending set out beyond this year.

Faced with this reality of broken public finances and broken public services, any responsible Chancellor would have had to act. Some noble Lords, during today’s debate, may argue otherwise: that we should have ignored the black hole in the public finances. But this is the path of irresponsibility, the path chosen by the Liz Truss mini-Budget, when mortgage costs increased by £300 a month, and for which working people are still paying the price.

That is not the path chosen by this Government. Our number one commitment is economic and fiscal stability. That is why, as a result of the Budget—and only because of the measures contained in this Bill, combined with other difficult decisions we have taken—instead of £22 billion of unfunded spending plans, within three years not a single penny of day-to-day government spending will be funded by borrowing.

Yes, it was a significant Budget, on a scale commensurate with the challenging inheritance we faced. And yes, it did mean taking difficult decisions. As a result, however—and only made possible by the measures contained in this Bill—we have now wiped the slate clean, creating a platform of stability in the public finances.

The Budget made another very important choice: to keep the manifesto commitments we made to working people to not increase their income tax, their national insurance or VAT. Compare that with the choices made by the previous Government, who chose to freeze income tax thresholds, costing working people nearly £30 billion. This Government could have chosen to extend that freeze, but that was not the choice we made. Instead, from 2028-29, personal tax thresholds will be uprated in line with inflation once again. However, keeping those promises to working people, while repairing the public finances and rebuilding our public services, did mean we had to take some very difficult decisions on spending, welfare and tax, including those in the Bill before your Lordships’ House today.

The Bill contains three key measures: first, an increase to the rate of employer secondary class 1 national insurance contributions from 13.8% to 15%; secondly, a decrease of the secondary threshold for employers—the threshold above which employers begin to pay employer national insurance contributions on their employees’ salaries—from £9,100 to £5,000; and, thirdly, measures to protect small businesses by more than doubling the current employment allowance from £5,000 to £10,500. The Bill will also expand the eligibility of the employment allowance by removing the £100,000 threshold so that more employers now benefit.

I of course understand that some of these measures mean asking businesses to contribute more, and I fully acknowledge that some impacts will be felt beyond businesses too. These are difficult decisions, and I understand and respect the legitimate concerns that have been raised, including by business. However, taken together, the measures in the Bill mean that more than half of businesses with national insurance liabilities will either see no change or see their liabilities decrease. Some 865,000 employers will now not pay any national insurance at all, and over 1 million employers will pay the same or less than they did before. All eligible employers will now be able to employ up to four full-time workers on the national living wage and pay no employer national insurance contributions. The Government are also setting aside support for the public sector of £5.1 billion by 2029-30, ensuring that there is sufficient funding for our vital public services, including the NHS.

I also recognise that concerns have been raised about the wider economic consequences of the measures contained in the Bill—concerns I am sure we will hear in today’s debate. Let me be clear: not to act was not an option. The choices we have made were the only route to putting the public finances back on a stable path, while protecting working people and rebuilding the public services. The economic data we have seen in recent months is, of course, disappointing; in particular, the recent growth figures show the sheer scale of the challenge we face. However, there would have been far greater costs to continuing with the irresponsibility and instability that has been a near-constant feature of the past 14 years: from the chaos of Brexit and the disastrous deal that followed, through to the Liz Truss mini-Budget, which crashed the economy and devastated family finances.

Let us remember that the OECD now expects the UK to be the fastest growing European G7 economy, and at the Budget, the independent Office for Budget Responsibility was clear that, with particular reference to our capital investments, the Budget will increase the size of the economy in the long term. On living standards, the OBR forecast shows that real household disposable income will increase in real terms in each year of this Parliament; the level of real wages will rise by 3% over the next five years; and the number of people in employment will rise by 1.2 million over the course of this Parliament. Our planning reforms, pension reforms, skills reforms and industrial strategy will all contribute to higher growth, but none are yet included in the OBR’s forecast.

The measures contained in the Bill also contribute to significant new investment in the NHS. That vital investment—amounting to £25.7 billion extra for the NHS over this year and next—is only possible because of this Bill. It includes £1.5 billion for new surgical hubs; more than £1.25 billion to deliver over 1 million additional diagnostic tests; over £2 billion for technology and digital improvements to increase NHS productivity and save staff time; and £880 million more in local government spending to support social care. All of that will support the NHS to deliver an extra 40,000 elective appointments a week, helping us to bring waiting lists down more quickly.

The choices we have made are the right choices. They are not the easy ones, but the responsible ones: to rebuild the public finances, to protect working people and to invest in Britain’s future. None of those things would be possible without the Bill. It is of course possible to make different choices: to ignore the problems in the public finances, to continue to neglect our public services or to fail to protect working people. Noble Lords may wish to argue for that during today’s debate, but this Government were elected with a mandate to fix the foundations of our economy. The Bill delivers on that mandate and provides a foundation of stability on which we will now build long-term, sustainable growth. I beg to move.

Amendment to the Motion

Moved by

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

My Lords, it is a pleasure to respond to this Second Reading of the national insurance contributions Bill, and in doing so to respond to the points raised by the amendment in the name of the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer. I am grateful to all noble Lords for their contributions during today’s debate. The Budget in October involved taking some very difficult decisions: to clear up the mess that we inherited, to repair the public finances, to protect working people and to rebuild our public services. Faced with the reality of broken public finances and broken public services, not acting was not an option, which is why this Bill is necessary, as my noble friends Lord Chandos and Lord Layard observed.

Some noble Lords, including the noble Baronesses, Lady Neville-Rolfe and Lady Noakes, the noble Lords, Lord Forsyth of Drumlean, Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon and Lord Mackinlay of Richborough, and the noble Viscount, Lord Trenchard, focused on the Government’s fiscal inheritance and sought to deny the £22 billion black hole that the previous Government left behind. I am, of course, very grateful to all noble Lords who mentioned the £22 billion black hole and thank them for doing so.

The Treasury has provided to the OBR a line-by-line breakdown of the previous Government’s unfunded commitments—260 separate pressures. Noble Lords need not just listen to the OBR and the Treasury. They need look only at the out-turn data: central government current expenditure, published by the ONS, shows that for the six months since March the out-turn is £11.8 billion higher than forecast. That is £11.8 billion over six months—well on course for £22 billion over the year. The noble Lord, Lord Moynihan of Chelsea, asked why the money is not there. I politely suggest to him that it is because of the policies he supported under the previous Government.

Faced with this reality, as the Chancellor was, any responsible Chancellor would have to act. Ignoring this black hole, as my noble friend Lord Eatwell said, would have taken us down a path of irresponsibility—the path chosen by Liz Truss in her mini-Budget, for which working people are still paying the price.

Some noble Lords, including the noble Baronesses, Lady Neville-Rolfe, Lady Noakes, Lady Bray of Coln and Lady Porter of Fulwood, the noble Lords, Lord Jackson of Peterborough and Lord Mackinlay of Richborough, and the noble Viscount, Lord Trenchard, sought to argue that the Bill breaches the Government’s manifesto commitments. That is clearly not the case. Despite the pressures on the public finances, the Government made a clear choice at the Budget to keep our promises to working people by not increasing their income tax, national insurance or VAT, and we went further by freezing fuel duty. Compare this with the decision made by the previous Government to freeze income tax thresholds—a decision which cost working people over £30 billion. Instead, our Budget ensures that, from 2028-29, personal tax thresholds will be uprated in line with inflation once again.

Some noble Lords, including the noble Baronesses, Lady Neville-Rolfe and Lady Moyo, the noble Lords, Lord Londesborough, Lord Forsyth of Drumlean, Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon and Lord Ashcombe, my noble friend Lord Eatwell and the noble Viscount, Lord Trenchard, focused on the impact of these measures on employers. We heard a lot during today’s debate from the noble Lords opposite about how much they know about business. One does wonder, then, why the economy was such a catastrophe over the past 14 years.

I accept, though, that the Bill will require some employers to contribute more. These are difficult decisions and not ones we wanted to take. I understand and respect the legitimate concerns that have been raised, including by some businesses. But, taken together, the measures in the Bill mean that more than half of businesses with national insurance liabilities will either see no change or see their liabilities decrease. As my noble friend Lady O’Grady of Upper Holloway said, 865,000 employers will now pay no national insurance at all, and over 1 million employers will pay the same or less than they did before. In answer to the noble Viscount, Lord Trenchard, around 250,000 employers will see their liabilities decrease. Around 940,000 will see an increase and 820,000 will see no change.

The noble Lord, Lord Macpherson of Earl’s Court, asked about reducing distortions. Recent changes, such as reforms of the off-payroll working rules, have reduced distortions and we will keep this issue under review.

To all those noble Lords who asked, we have no plans to combine income tax and national insurance. Relative to other countries, our tax burden on employers hiring average earners remains low. The UK will remain below the OECD average and the third lowest in the G7, below France, Italy, Germany and Japan.

The noble Lord, Lord Jackson of Peterborough, asked about the impact of these changes on the public sector. We have set aside funding to protect the spending power of the public sector, including the NHS, from the direct impact of the changes, totalling £4.7 billion next year, rising to £5.1 billion in 2029-30. We are now working with departments to ensure that this funding is allocated appropriately, and specific allocations will be set out in due course.

In answer to the noble Lord, Lord Bruce of Bennachie, the Barnett formula will apply in the usual way. My right honourable friend the Chief Secretary to the Treasury is in regular contact with the Scottish Government on funding, including on the application of the Barnett formula.

Some noble Lords, including the noble Baronesses, Lady Kramer and Lady Neville-Rolfe, and the noble Lords, Lord Scriven and Lord Sharkey, spoke about the impact of the Bill on GPs, dentists and pharmacists. As the noble Lords will know, every year, the Government consult with each sector about both what services they provide and the money that providers are entitled to in return under their contracts. As in previous years, this issue will be dealt with as part of that process. The Department of Health and Social Care will shortly confirm funding for GPs, dentistry and pharmacy.

The noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, and the noble Lords, Lord Forsyth of Drumlean, Lord Scriven, Lord Udny-Lister and Lord Sharkey, asked about adult social care providers. The Government are providing a real-terms increase in core local government spending power of 3.5% in 2025-26. To support social care authorities to deliver key services, we also announced a further £200 million for adult and children’s social care at the provisional local government finance settlement last month. This will be allocated via the social care grant, bringing the total increase of this grant in 2025-26 to £880 million, meaning that up to £3.7 billion of additional funding will be provided to social care authorities in 2025-26.

Several noble Lords—including the noble Baronesses, Lady Porter of Fulwood, Lady Bray of Coln, Lady Sater and Lady Neville-Rolfe, the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Southwark and the noble Lord, Lord Blackwell—focused on the impact on charities, including hospices. We are supporting the hospice sector with a £100 million boost for adult and children’s hospices, to ensure that they have the best physical environment for care, and £26 million revenue to support children and young people’s hospices. More widely, the Government provide support for charities, including hospices, via the tax regime, which is among the most generous of anywhere in the world. Tax reliefs for charities and their donors were worth just over £6 billion for the tax year to April 2024.

The right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Southwark asked about listed places of worship. The outcome of this programme is currently being assessed by the DCMS, as it finalises its financial allocation for 2025-26. The right reverend Prelate also asked about SEN transport. In the Budget, the Government announced £2 billion of new grant funding for local government in 2025-26. This includes £515 million to support councils with the increase in employer national insurance contributions, which covers special educational needs home-to-school transport schemes.

The noble Baronesses, Lady Kramer and Lady Neville-Rolfe, asked about childcare and the impact on the rollout of the expanded entitlement. Early years providers play a crucial role in driving economic growth, which is why we have committed to open 3,000 new school-based nurseries in this Parliament. At the Budget, the Chancellor announced that total funding will rise to over £8 billion in 2025-26 to support providers. On top of this, last month, the Department for Education confirmed an additional £75 million to help the sector expand next year, and a further £25 million to support childcare for disadvantaged children through the early years pupil premium.

The noble Baroness, Lady Sater, asked when the impact assessment will be published. The tax information and impact note was published on 13 November, alongside the legislation when it was introduced. The latest forecasts for tax revenues were published alongside the Office for Budget Responsibility’s October Economic and Fiscal Outlook.

Many noble Lords—including the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, the noble Lords, Lord Macpherson of Earl’s Court, Lord Forsyth of Drumlean, Lord Londesborough, Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon and Lord Mackinlay of Richborough, and the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Southwark—focused on the wider macroeconomic impact of the Bill. As I said in my opening speech, not to act was not an option. The choices we have made were the only route to putting the public finances back on a stable path while protecting working people and rebuilding public services. The economic data we have seen in recent months is disappointing. In particular, the recent growth figures show the sheer scale of the challenge we face, and the noble Lord, Lord Horam, set out the dire inheritance that we faced on growth.

The fact is that there would have been far greater cost to continuing with the irresponsibility and instability that has been a near-constant feature of the past 14 years—from the chaos of Brexit and the disastrous deal that followed, which reduced GDP by 4%, through to the Liz Truss mini-Budget that crashed the economy and devastated family finances. Let us remember that the Office for Budget Responsibility has also been clear that, with particular reference to our capital investments, the Budget will increase the size of the economy in the long term.

The noble Lord, Lord Blackwell, rightly identified the problem of inactivity, which is higher than it was before the pandemic. He rightly identified the issues in the benefits system that contribute to that. The Government will bring forward proposals in this area in the coming months. The noble Lord also asked about public sector productivity. Unlike the previous Government, we have introduced a 2% productivity target for all government departments and have said that above-inflation pay awards will be affordable only if they can be funded from improved productivity.

The noble Baronesses, Lady Neville-Rolfe and Lady Moyo, spoke about the impact on inflation. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility says that it expects inflation to remain close to the 2% target throughout the forecast period. This is of course very different from the previous Parliament, when inflation peaked at 11.1% and was above target for 33 consecutive months, and when mortgages rose by an average of £300 a month following the Liz Truss mini-Budget.

The noble Baronesses, Lady Neville-Rolfe and Lady Noakes, and the noble Lords, Lord Howard of Rising, Lord Elliott of Mickle Fell and Lord Altrincham, spoke about employment. The Office for Budget Responsibility’s October forecast, which takes into account all tax measures announced in the Budget, forecasts that the unemployment rate will now fall to 4.1% next year and remain low until 2029. It also expects the number of people in employment to rise by 1.2 million over the course of this Parliament. As I have said to the noble Lord, Lord Elliott of Mickle Fell, on previous occasions, we remain committed to the 80% employment ambition.

The noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, asked about the impact of this Bill on living standards. As noble Lords will be aware, the previous Parliament was the worst for living standards ever recorded. The Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast shows that real household disposable income will increase in real terms every year over the course of this Parliament.

The noble Lord, Lord Forsyth of Drumlean, and the noble Baroness, Lady Noakes, asked about the impact of the Bill on wages. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility expects real wages to increase by 3% over the next five years.

This Bill also serves another key purpose: to fix our broken NHS and put an end to over a decade of underinvestment, neglect and inequality, as my noble friend Lady O’Grady of Upper Holloway said. That is because this Government inherited not only broken public finances but an NHS experiencing the worst crisis in its history. It is for this reason that the Budget included extra investment of £25.7 billion for the NHS over this year and next—investment that is possible only because of the measures in this Bill.

This Government had to take some very difficult decisions, reflected in the Bill we have debated today; not decisions we wanted to take, but necessary decisions to clear up the mess we inherited. Some noble Lords have today argued otherwise. The noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, set out her position eloquently, but I did not hear a single alternative proposal. What is her alternative—that we should have ignored the black hole in the public finances? That is the path of irresponsibility and a repeat of the path chosen by the Liz Truss mini-Budget. That is not the path chosen by this Government. Yes, it was a significant Budget, on a scale commensurate with the challenging inheritance that we faced.

I recognise that the measures in this Bill involve asking some businesses to contribute more. However, as a result, and made possible only by the measures contained in this Bill, we have now wiped the slate clean, creating a platform of stability in the public finances. In doing so, and in contrast to the previous Government’s choice to freeze income tax thresholds, we have protected working people, keeping our manifesto commitments not to raise their income tax, their national insurance, or VAT. Again, as my noble friend Lord Eatwell pointed out, the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, said that this was the wrong tax to raise, but gave no detail about what other taxes she would raise. Would she have raised taxes on working people instead? The noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, at least suggested taxing some pensioners more, but from the Official Opposition there simply is no plan.

We have made historic new investment in our NHS and begun to put an end to years of underfunding and neglect. The choices that we have made to repair the public finances, protect working people and invest in Britain’s future are the only responsible choices in the circumstances that we faced. None of these things would be possible without this Bill. This Government were elected on a mandate to fix the foundations of our economy, and that is exactly what we will do. The Bill delivers on that mandate and provides a foundation of stability upon which we will now build long-term sustainable growth so we can rebuild our public services and make working people better off.

National Insurance Contributions (Secondary Class 1 Contributions) Bill

Lord Livermore Excerpts

Committee stage
Tuesday 21st January 2025 Grand Committee

[Baroness Neville-Rolfe (Con)]

My noble friend makes an excellent point. It is a question of the dynamics. I know, having once been a Treasury Minister, that dynamics always worry it. But the fact of the matter is that, if we can get things done and get people out of hospital quicker, as my noble friend suggests, that would make a real difference.

I feel that the proposals that we are faced with for hard-working businesspeople and for social enterprises are a huge slap in the face. They are being discussed on a day when unemployment is rising and job opportunities are falling. I believe that that reflects the impact of the £23.8 billion hit on employers’ national insurance. It is a veritable jobs tax and the gloom that the Government have admitted for the first six months of their tenure has not helped. That is why my noble friend Lord Forsyth was right to regret that we were debating this not on the Floor of the House but in Grand Committee. I hope that none the less we will attempt to give the Bill proper scrutiny here, because if we do not, that would be a big failing.

In that respect, one of the things that annoys me most is the lack of a proper impact assessment. We have a very inadequate impact note, which was published on 13 November. That gives a run of the yield to the Exchequer year by year but does not break it down into the three categories: the costs of the increase to 15%, the lowering of the threshold, which is extremely regressive, and the welcome benefit from the rise in the employment allowance—and indeed anything else included in the figure of £23.8 billion, which was by far the biggest change in the Budget and which is why so many people are here today worrying about the Bill.

There is also an unexpected dynamic effect highlighted by the OBR, which means that, following the reduction in wages, profits and employment, this tax will raise over £5 billion less than the Treasury forecast, raising £18.3 billion in 2025-26 and nearly £10 billion less than the forecast in 2026-27. So there is a great deal of pain for wealth creators and effective employers, but not a lot of gain.

I cannot see how we can scrutinise the Bill without proper impact information, and I look forward to a proper discussion during the debate on Amendment 13. However, I think the Committee would also like to have authoritative, disaggregated figures on the impact on the health and care sectors under discussion today. That is why I am raising this now, and I hope the Minister will consider what he can do to assist the Committee so that we can have proper understanding and proper scrutiny. We want to do the right thing here.

It is against that sombre background that I shall speak to my Amendments 38 and 42, which have been grouped with this amendment. They seek to increase the employment allowance in the primary care sector. My purpose is to probe the Government’s openness to helping the sector a bit more through an increase. Perhaps the Minister could clarify the facts. The BMA has said that, as public authorities, they are unable to access support via the increased allowance and the noble Lord, Lord Scriven, made a similar point in relation to dentists. The Committee needs to know whether that is true.

Mine is a probing amendment and the first of several relating to Clause 3. To reply to the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, as someone who has tried to reform taxes in the past, originally with the help of my noble friend Lord Heseltine as part of the deregulation initiative, it is very difficult to get simplification of the tax system. That is one reason why I have tabled an amendment relating to the employment allowance, because it comes at the matter in a different way.

Primary care is vital to the Government’s plans to improve the NHS. My fear is that the NICs changes, especially the lowering of the threshold and with part-time working so common in primary care, will lead to further problems in GP surgeries, increasing chronic conditions and waiting times for appointments across the NHS, and having the perverse effect that I think we will come back to as this Committee progresses.

[The Financial Secretary to the Treasury (Lord Livermore) (Lab)]

My Lords, it is a great pleasure to respond to the debate on this first group of amendments, and I thank all noble Lords who have contributed so far. It is also a pleasure to see so many noble Lords in the Grand Committee. I know that some noble Lords are unhappy about being here, but the noble Baronesses, Lady Kramer and Lady Neville-Rolfe, in particular, and I know what it feels like to be in this Grand Committee on our own, so it is, at least, I have to say, nice to be popular.

Before I address each of the amendments in this group, I shall very briefly set out at the outset the context in which the Budget decisions contained in the Bill were taken. I would like to do so since this context is why we are here today and underpins the debates that we will have, not just on this group of amendments, but on all further groups. As noble Lords will know, the Government inherited three distinct challenges: the need to repair the public finances; the need to rebuild public services; and the need to protect working people.

The most pressing of these challenges was the need to repair the £22 billion black hole in the public finances as a result of a series of commitments made by the previous Government which they did not fund. The previous Government also made no provision for costs that they knew would materialise, including £11.8 billion to compensate victims of the infected blood scandal and £1.8 billion to compensate victims of the Post Office Horizon scandal. These pressures have to be funded, and it falls to this Government to do so.

Noble Lords will also know that the country inherited acute problems in public services, with NHS waiting lists at record levels, children in Portakabins as school roofs crumbled around them and rivers filled with polluted waste. Yet since 2021, there had been no spending review and no detailed plans for departmental spending were set out for beyond this year. Working people had also lived through a cost-of-living crisis, with inflation peaking at 11.1% and remaining above target for 33 consecutive months. Combined with the previous Government’s decision to freeze income tax thresholds—

[Baroness Noakes (Con)]

Is the Minister going to address the amendment?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

Yes, I am. I said that I wanted to set out some context at the outset. I know that the noble Baroness may not like that context, but it is why we are here today, after all.

That meant taking some very difficult decisions on welfare, spending and tax, including those in the Bill. I recognise that this involves asking some businesses to contribute more and that the impacts of the Bill will be felt beyond businesses. These are difficult decisions—not ones we wanted to take—and I understand and respect the very legitimate concerns that have been raised, both during today’s debate and outside this House. Crucially, however, and I may find myself making this point repeatedly during these debates, noble Lords who oppose the measures in the Bill must be clear. Do they propose instead more borrowing, lower spending or alternative tax-raising measures? That is the key question at the heart of these debates.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

If the noble Lord is going to make a Second Reading speech on an amendment, is it okay if we all do the same thing?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I think the noble Lord did in his contribution; I remember him raising the minimum wage, for example. I do not think that is directly related to the amendment. We are all absolutely entitled to set out some contextual points in the points that we raise.

Let me turn directly to the amendments in the name of the noble Lord, Lord Scriven, the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, and the noble Lord, Lord Randall of Uxbridge, which seek to exclude care providers, NHS GP practices, NHS-commissioned dentists, NHS-commissioned pharmacists, charitable providers of health and care, and those providing hospice care, from the new rate and threshold for employer national insurance. I say at the outset that I have listened very carefully to the points raised by all noble Lords during these debates and taken on board what has been said.

As I said, the difficult decisions the Government took in the Budget last year, including those in the Bill, were necessary to repair the public finances, protect working people and rebuild our public services. As a result of the measures in the Bill and wider Budget measures, the NHS will receive an extra £22.6 billion over two years to deliver 40,000 extra elective appointments a week. This investment is dependent on the Bill.

As noble Lords will know, the Government have already set out that they will provide support for departments and other public sector employers for additional employer national insurance costs. But independent contractors, including primary care providers, social care providers, charities, including hospices, and nurseries will not be supported with the costs from these changes. This follows the precedent for such national insurance measures. It is exactly the same as was the case with changes to employer national insurance rates under the previous Government’s plan for the health and social care levy.

Primary care providers—in general practice, dentistry, pharmacy and eye care—are important independent contractors, who provide nearly £20 billion-worth of NHS services. Every year, the Government consult each sector about what services it provides and what money it is entitled to in return under its contract. As in previous years, the issues we are debating today will be dealt with as part of that process.

The Government have announced a proposed £889 million uplift for general practice in 2025-26 and have set out the proposed areas of reform that will help us to deliver on our manifesto commitments. This is the largest uplift to GP funding since the beginning of the five-year framework; it means that we are reversing a recent trend, with a rising share of total NHS resources going to general practice. We have started consulting the General Practitioners Committee of the British Medical Association on the 2025-26 GP contract in England. We will consider a range of proposed policy changes. These will be announced in the usual way, following the close of the consultation later this year.

Turning to adult social care, the Government have provided a real-terms increase in core local government spending power of 3.5% in 2025-26, including £880 million of new grant funding provided to social care. This funding can be used to address the range of pressures facing the adult social care sector. Finally, we are also supporting the hospice sector, with a £100 million boost for adult and children’s hospices to ensure that they have the best physical environment for care, and £26 million of revenue to support children and young people’s hospices.

I turn to the amendments tabled by the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, and the noble Lord, Lord Altrincham, seeking to increase the employment allowance for employers in the primary care sector and for dental practices. Currently, small businesses with national insurance bills of £100,000 or less receive a £5,000 employment allowance, which means that they can deduct £5,000 from the total national insurance they pay on their employees’ wages. Under the proposals in the Bill, the employment allowance will increase to £10,500 from April 2025.

The Bill also expands the employment allowance to all eligible employers by removing the £100,000 eligibility threshold. This will simplify and reform employer national insurance contributions so that all eligible employers now benefit. Increasing the employment allowance for specific sectors, including just the primary care sector and dental practices, as my noble friend Lord Eatwell said, would add additional complexity to the tax system and would be incoherent, given the wider changes to simplify the employment allowance made in the Bill.

These changes would also create additional costs. How would these additional costs be met—through more borrowing, lower public spending or additional revenue-raising measures? If so, where would these additional taxes fall? If the Government were unable to meet these additional costs, we would be unable to provide the extra £22.6 billion for the NHS.

In the light of the points I have made, I respectfully ask noble Lords to withdraw or not press their amendments.

[Baroness Neville-Rolfe (Con)]

I asked a question which, in relation to dentists, echoed by the noble Lord, Lord Scriven. It was about the definition of “public authorities” and how that affects payment of the employment allowance. I raised it at Second Reading as well. It would be helpful to have a judgment on that point.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

The definition is set as it was previously. We have no intention of changing that definition.

[Baroness Neville-Rolfe (Con)]

To be clear, that means these bodies will not have access to the employment allowance if they are public authorities. It would be helpful to know what the costings of that look like. I know that the Minister does not want to make any changes, but we are trying to understand what the numbers are here and in some minor areas, such as hospices. The Minister says that hospices will have extra money, but they will also have to pay a lot extra in national insurance. We are trying to understand all that to give him helpful feedback on the Bill; obviously, we are as keen as he is for it to succeed.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I would be very happy to look into the specific point made by the noble Baroness. I will feed back in my responses on a subsequent group.

[Lord Scriven (LD)]

My Lords, this has been a fascinating debate—no more fascinating than my thinking I was in total agreement with the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, until he started arguing why he did not support me. I do not feel that I have to resign from my Front-Bench position, for which I thank the noble Lord.

I have listened carefully. I believe that, regardless of which side of the Grand Committee noble Lords are on, everyone is agreed that the Bill will have consequences, both for health and social care providers and, through them, for the people who receive such services. I note that the Minister said that he had listened very carefully; I am sure that the sector and providers, who are listening carefully to this debate, will have noticed that he did not come up with any solutions to the problems they now face, such as the cuts to staff and services that they will have to make.

I also note that, in his response, the Minister did not refer to community pharmacists’ contract negotiations, which have been on hold for this financial year since the general election. They are still dealing with a lack of contract and uplift for this year, regardless of the uplift and extra costs that will come next year. As a former NHS manager, I know that the flaw in the Minister’s response about this measure being part of contract negotiations is that everything gets bundled into contract negotiations—not just this year’s pressures but the extra services that the Government will look to provide. Therefore, this amount of money will not be covered and the Government’s decision will create both pressures on and gaps in existing services.

I appreciate that the Minister gave the context, which is important, but it is the Government’s decision on how to deal with that context and the taxes that they decided to raise against these providers that are causing the problem. This is a government issue that will not go away and will put pressures on services; that is why, even though I beg leave to withdraw my amendment, believe that we will come back to this issue on Report. I look forward to the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, supporting a vote then.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Altrincham (Con)]

My Lords, I rise to speak to this group of amendments surrounding the exemption of veterans’ salaries from this NI jobs tax; the lead amendment was moved by the noble Baroness, Lady Smith of Newnham. This is a helpful group of amendments to remind us—just as my noble friend Lady Noakes has reminded us—that the social costs of this taxation initiative will fall on individuals. Although we talk about economics in an aggregate manner and debate it in the aggregate, there are social costs, and they are very real.

In the aggregate, the Treasury may do quite well from this rise because of wage inflation. Wage inflation is a tremendous friend to the Treasury and will more than make up for the gap that the noble Lord mentioned at the start, which is that we need to find other sources of revenue. Wage inflation is going to support the Government quite nicely through this, but that cuts both ways: obviously, it has an aggregate and fiscal benefit, but it hits hard because the cost of employment goes up a lot. There is a double effect and we are probably seeing that right now.

Putting aside the theory about whether we lose jobs in one place and offset them somewhere else, we know that we were down 50,000 jobs in December; the OBR number is an aggregate loss of 50,000 through this initiative. That is a tremendous estimate, of course—who is to say that it has any better insight than anybody else?—but it is already down by 50,000 in December. It is probably a combination of wage inflation and expected tax rises, but that is 50,000 people who are out of a job. As we look through these amendments, we might pause and reflect. Who are these vulnerable employees? Who is actually going to bear the social cost of this change?

These amendments perfectly encapsulate the problem, which is that these changes will fall on people who are, and have already been identified as, vulnerable in one form or another. Observations about tax complexity may have been well made by the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell and, by the way, it is not just tax avoidance that is a burden to the economy. Tax compliance is a burden to the economy, as all forms of taxation in this country have become very complex and are a tremendous drag on the economy as things stand. However, that is how we manage our affairs.

While we look at this issue, we might pause and think about where the costs fall on individuals—in this case, on veterans. The previous Conservative Government ensured that veterans were a priority. They guaranteed that the funding was sufficient to support veterans in securing highly paid and skilled employment in key sectors across our economy, utilising the skills that they developed in the military.

In April 2024, veteran employment was at an all-time high of 89% owing to various initiatives, including the 12-month national insurance relief for employers hiring a veteran into their first role out of military service. This tax incentive was highly beneficial for veterans and business. Following its introduction in 2022, this relief was extended in 2023 and again in the following year, 2024. Following the Government’s decision to impact business through this tax decision, will the Minister at least confirm that they intend to continue this business relief to ensure that our veterans are able to find employment after their service and that businesses are able to benefit from their unique skills and experience?

Our military deserve the utmost respect for the service they provide to our country and, as such, the veterans deserve that same level of respect. This tax will be harmful to these people, and if the Government are unwilling to exempt them, at the very least they must explain how they have arrived at the conclusion that it will not be exceptionally detrimental to the employment rate of veterans.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

My Lords, I am very grateful to all noble Lords who have spoken in this debate. I will address the amendments tabled by the noble Baronesses, Lady Smith of Newnham and Lady Kramer, and the noble Lord, Lord Randall of Uxbridge, which seek to exempt veteran salaries from the employer national insurance changes. These amendments would create a different employer national insurance rate and threshold set at the current levels for salaries of veterans. The Government of course recognise the huge contributions made by the UK Armed Forces and veterans in this country, and I completely understand the intention behind these amendments.

As some noble Lords have mentioned, there is already an employer national insurance relief available for the earnings of veterans, meaning that employers are not required to pay any national insurance contributions up to £50,270 for the first year of civilian employment. At the Budget, the Government decided to extend the national insurance contributions relief for employers who hire veterans to support veterans in their first year of civilian employment for a further year. Despite the challenging fiscal inheritance this Government face, this means we are maintaining this relief and it is not changing as a result of this Bill.

Further to this, we have more than doubled the employment allowance to £10,500, meaning that more than half of businesses with national insurance liabilities either gain or see no change next year. Businesses and charities will still be able to claim employer national insurance reliefs, including those for under-21s and under-25 apprentices, where eligible.

On veterans more widely, this Government have taken action to demonstrate our commitment to renew this nation’s contract with those who have served. We have awarded £3.7 million in veterans housing grants, veterans will be exempt from the local connection test for social housing in England and veteran cards are now accepted ID for elections. We are progressing veterans support programmes at pace, including a centralised referral pathway designed to support veterans who are homeless or at risk of homelessness, an NHS mental health specialist service designed to help veterans and their families in England and an NHS physical health specialist service designed to help veterans and their families in England.

Before I sit down, I shall also address the questions raised by the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, about dentists, which I was unable to answer during the debate on the previous group. As I said, the criteria have not changed, including the exclusion of those doing 50% of their work in the public sector. The eligibility is down to individual businesses, and the proportion of their work in the public sector may vary year to year. All charities can claim, including hospices.

[Baroness Neville-Rolfe (Con)]

My point was in relation to the points made by the BMA and the dentists. There are two separate points. It is not in this group, but it might be as well to have a discussion on this so that we can be clear about this and on the impact on these important areas for the future of health in the NHS.

[Baroness Smith of Newnham (LD)]

Can the Minister clarify something? I understood that the national insurance contributions relief for veterans had been extended for one year and that this Bill was not going to affect veterans. Surely at some point it cuts out. Is that correct, so that this would be valid only up to 2026?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

The noble Lord, Lord Altrincham, set out in his speech that it was extended year by year under the previous Government. This Government have done the same thing and have extended it for a further year.

On the basis of what I have set out, I hope the noble Baroness will feel able to withdraw her amendment.

[Baroness Smith of Newnham (LD)]

I thank all noble Lords who have contributed to the group, and I beg leave to withdraw the amendment.

--- Later in debate ---

[Baroness Bennett of Manor Castle (GP)]

My Lords, I apologise for speaking after the Tory Front Bench, but I thought the noble Lord, Lord Londesborough, was continuing after the voting break.

I will speak briefly in favour of Amendments 58 and 59. In doing that, perhaps I should declare an interest. I was on the board of the Fawcett Society in 2010 when it brought a judicial review against the emergency Budget of that year for its failure to honour its legal duty under the Equality Act to do with gender impact assessment. In that case, although Fawcett lost the overall case on legal grounds, it was said that the gender impact assessment requirements applied to the Budget and should have been carried out on a couple of aspects of that Budget.

With that in mind, I draw attention to the final page of the policy paper of 13 November, which I think we are regarding as an impact assessment. Under the heading “Equalities Impacts”, in this five-page document that my sub-editor’s eye tells me is in 16-point, it states:

“Secondary Class 1 NICs are levied on employers rather than individuals. There are therefore no direct equalities impacts”.


I would like to question the Minister on how it can be claimed that there are no equalities impacts. Some figures have already been raised, but I point out that 74% of part-time workers are female, 57% of involuntary part-time workers are female, 6 million women are working part time and 10 million women are working full time. According to the Resolution Foundation’s analysis of ONS data, 63% of UK workers under the £9,100 threshold are female. We are seeing national insurance charges increasing the cost of employment by nearly £700 a year for someone working 15 hours a week on the minimum wage. An additional 600,000 women workers are being brought within scope of national insurance. As others have said, on the minimum wage you need to work fewer than eight hours a week to stay below the new threshold.

Analysis of this has suggested that women workers are particularly affected by this change. Some of them may want to raise their hours, so this might turn out positive. Some of them may have caring responsibilities that mean that they cannot lift their hours and may then have to leave employment because they are being offered more or nothing. It is also worth pointing out that the Women’s Budget Group has highlighted how the overall impacts of the national insurance changes are likely significantly to increase childcare costs. That is of immediate relevance to working women with direct childcare responsibilities, but, as the Women’s Budget Group pointed out, there are also issues around grandparents, very likely grandmothers, who may find themselves being pushed, and feeling obligated, to leave employment so that they can take up childcare responsibilities. I do not think that that equalities impact can be justified and would appreciate the Minister’s comments.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

My Lords, I am grateful to all noble Lords for their contributions to this debate. I will address the amendments and the new clause proposed by the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, and the noble Lords, Lord Bruce of Bennachie and Lord Londesborough. These seek to set a reduced rate of employer national insurance for part-time workers at 7.5%. As I have said before, the difficult decisions in the Bill were necessary to repair the public finances, protect working people and invest in Britain’s future. This amendment would reduce the revenue raised from the Bill and therefore prevent the Government achieving those objectives. In policy terms, reducing the rate of employer national insurance for part-time workers would create additional complexity in the tax system and distortions in the labour market.

The Government have taken action to support those on lower pay by increasing the national minimum wage, which I was interested to hear the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, describe as a blow. I think that will be interesting to those on lower pay. We have also introduced important protections for workers as part of the plan to make work pay.

Employers will also continue to benefit from employer national insurance reliefs, including for hiring under-21 and under-25 apprentices, where eligible.

The noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, also spoke about umbrella companies and mini umbrella companies. I will just note that the Government are committed to closing the tax gap and have announced, as part of the closing the tax gap package in the Budget, that we will bring forward measures to tackle non-compliance in the umbrella company market, including mini umbrella company fraud.

The noble Baroness, Lady Bennett, spoke specifically about equalities impacts. I can say that they were fully considered and we are confident that they are set out in the tax information impact note that she referred to.

--- Later in debate ---

[The Deputy Chairman of Committees (Baroness McIntosh of Hudnall) (Lab)]

My Lords, I feel that it would have been more sensible to take up residence in the Lobbies, but we have not done that. Another vote is expected imminently but, for now, I call the Minister.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

My Lords, in answer to the point made by the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, as I have said, the Government and the OBR have already set out the impacts of the policy change. The information provided is in line with the approach for other tax changes and the Government do not intend to publish additional assessments.

[Baroness Noakes (Con)]

My Lords, before the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, speaks again to her amendment, the Minister said that what the Government have provided is in line with what they did for other tax changes. I remind him that this is not a tax. The reason we are scrutinising this Bill is that it is not a tax; it is national insurance. I do not think that the Minister can run a line saying that, just because this Bill comes from the Treasury, the Treasury is allowed to produce whatever minimalist, large-font document, with no information in, that it wants. There is an obligation on government to produce impact assessments for major policy changes—and, my goodness me, this is a major policy change and I do not think we will be giving up this particular pursuit in Committee.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

HMRC has provided a tax information note, as it does for all similar policy changes. The Government have no intention of publishing additional assessments.

[Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon (Con)]

My Lords, just to confirm, does the Minister honestly feel that that note is sufficient, given the importance of the issue we are debating?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I believe that that note is in line with what we have done for similar policy changes.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Altrincham (Con)]

My Lords, I will speak to Amendments 4, 5 and 8 in this group. It is an unusual group, as the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, mentioned, because it covers such a diverse range of services. But they are all public services, which is why I agree with the comment from the noble Lord, Lord Davies, which I may have misheard, that this special pleading does not really fit well with the concept of hurting public services. These all have in common the semi-independent provision of public service. That is the essence of the dissonance in government policy for this area, which is that the Government are protecting direct public services but have not really thought through what to do about indirect public services, of which the charity sector is a huge provider and has been now for 20 years. It is almost as if we have fooled ourselves by saying, “Well, it’s in the charity sector now so it’s not a public service”—but large charities deliver public services, as do universities. To imagine that they are entirely private and away from the Government is obviously not in line with other areas of policy.

So, that is the essence of why, in an unusual way, these amendments have been gathered. But they have this feature in common and, as we address this, we are trying to find a way through that protects public services. In her very good comments at the start, the noble Baroness, Lady Grender, used the expression “vital partner in public services”. That is what these are: they are vital partners. In essence, sectors of the economy that provide public services—which, certainly within this debate, we should assume are appropriate and are needed—will be affected and, again without a proper impact assessment or proper analysis, the cost of those impacts will almost certainly be taken by the Government. That is the essence of this area of public service delivery, which is that the Government are ultimately on the hook for all this. They are hoping that the services can be provided away from any greater demands on the Treasury, but the truth is that, when it goes wrong, it will go straight back up to the Government.

The noble Lord, Lord Sharkey, spoke so well about universities. What is going on in the university sector cannot be anything but bad news for the Treasury. It must be hoping and praying that the whole situation can just be kicked along without a huge hit coming back to the Treasury one way or another, because the sector is in trouble at the moment. But everybody knows that, when it goes wrong, it will go back up to the Treasury. So let us be careful in putting through changes that make vulnerable public service provision more vulnerable. Surely that is the essence of this area of dissonant policy that is coming out from the Bill.

Specifically on each amendment, Amendment 4 in the name of the noble Lord, Lord Storey, seeks to exempt both early years providers and universities, and indeed it is fair to say that the Government have not fully considered the impact on the education system. I look forward to further discussion on the individual aspects of the education system later in the debate. There have been calls from across the sector, from early years providers to universities, that costs will be far too much for the sector to bear, so if the Government could appropriately explain their evidence that indicates the opposite, it would be most appreciated.

Amendment 5 in the name of the noble Baroness, Lady Grender, seeks to exempt charities, and it certainly seems as though the sentiment across the sector is that this tax will leave many charities in a position where they are forced to reduce services and limit headcount, preventing them offering the same excellent services that they currently do. This tax cannot be seen as anything another than a tax raid that will damage charities across the country.

We also support Amendment 8 in the name of the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, as the Government have contradicted themselves in regard to local councils. When publishing their local government finance policy for 2025-26, they claimed to understand the issues that councils faced and recognised that, in recent years, the costs of providing services had increased, yet the Bill completely contradicts that and highlights the Government’s chosen direction that does not react to the current situation.

The Local Government Association has claimed that councils will face a shortfall of £637 million next year as a direct result of this poorly thought through tax change. On top of that, it has estimated that it may cost up to another £1.13 billion through indirect costs on suppliers. Neither of these numbers will be offset by the £515 million compensation the Government intend to give. Will the Government say how they reached such a number and whether they will publish the data they used?

These are early questions around these areas of public services. The impacts could be quite large and quite burdensome—ultimately and unluckily, for the Government themselves.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

My Lords, I am grateful to all noble Lords. I will address the amendments and proposed new clauses proposed by the noble Baronesses, Lady Grender and Lady Kramer, and the noble Lords, Lord Storey, Lord Sharkey and Lord Randall of Uxbridge, which seek to exclude early-years settings, universities, charities, housing associations and town and parish councils from the new employer national insurance rate. I have listened very carefully to all contributions made in this debate and, of course, I understand the points raised.

The Government recognise that early-years providers have a crucial role to play in driving economic growth and breaking down barriers to opportunity. We are committed to making childcare more affordable and accessible. That is why, in our manifesto, the Government committed to delivering the expansion of government-funded childcare for working parents and to opening 3,000 new or expanded nurseries through upgrading space in primary schools to support the expansion of the sector.

Despite the very challenging circumstances the Government inherited, in the Budget in October the Chancellor announced significant increases to the funding that early-years providers are paid to deliver government-funded childcare places. This means that total funding will rise to more than £8 billion in 2025-26. It is very likely that many private nurseries will be able to claim the employment allowance, as receiving public funds does not necessarily mean that work is of a public nature, and they should check HMRC guidance.

On universities, I of course recognise the great value—

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

I accept that more money has been allocated to nursery and early-years provision, but providers are also facing increased costs. Does the Minister not accept that the national insurance charge is one that has been implemented by the Government, so the Government are giving with one hand and taking away with the other? The Minister is not really addressing the point that this is an unbudgeted cost that is being imposed on top of all the other costs that they face.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I totally understand the points that the noble Lord is making but, as I said at the outset, there are specific reasons for the Bill. Those decisions are difficult decisions, but they are necessary decisions.

On universities, I recognise the great value of UK higher education in creating opportunity, being an engine for growth in our economy and supporting local communities. The Budget provided £6.1 billion of support for core research and confirmed the Government’s commitment to the lifelong learning entitlement, a major reform to student finance that will expand access to high-quality, flexible education and training for adults throughout their working lives.

The Secretary of State for Education has since confirmed that maximum fees will rise in the academic year 2025-26 for the first time since 2017, from £9,250 to £9,535 for a standard full-time undergraduate course. This was a difficult decision which demonstrates that the Government are serious about the need to put our world-leading higher education sector on a secure footing.

I have previously set out the Government’s position on additional impact assessments.

I turn to charities and housing associations. The Government recognise the need to protect the smallest businesses and charities, which is why we have more than doubled the employment allowance to £10,500, meaning that more than half of all businesses, including charities, with national insurance liabilities will either gain or see no change next year.

The Government also provide wider support for charities via the tax regime. The UK’s tax regime is among the most generous in the world, with tax reliefs for charities and their donors worth just over £6 billion for the tax year to April 2024.

More broadly, the Government deliver a number of grant and support programmes, including the community organisations cost of living fund last year and the ongoing social enterprise boost fund. Across 2023-24, the National Lottery community fund made grant awards totalling more than £900 million, 84% of which were under £10,000, with the majority supporting grass-roots organisations.

Regarding housing associations, the Government have announced major steps towards delivering a once-in-a-generation increase in social housing, including supporting the housing associations that deliver this. We are consulting on long-term social rent settlements to provide housing associations with the long-term stability they need to deliver crucial services. I am afraid that I cannot comment on the specific case that the noble Baroness, Lady Grender, set out, as I do not have all the information about it, but I am of course more than happy to discuss with her at any time. On the wider points, any exemptions, carve-outs or delays would of course undermine the fundamental purpose of the Bill, which I have set out before.

Finally, Amendment 8, tabled by the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, and the noble Lord, Lord Storey, seeks to exclude town and parish councils from the employer national insurance rate change. The Government have no direct role in funding parish and town councils and therefore do not intend to provide further support for the employer national insurance changes. This is in line with the approach taken for previous national insurance policy changes, including the previous Government’s health and social care levy.

All these proposed amendments would of course come at a cost. They would necessitate either higher borrowing, lower public spending or new revenue-raising measures. That is not what this Government intend to do. For the reasons I have set out, I respectfully ask noble Lords not to press their amendments.

[Lord Storey (LD)]

I am grateful to all noble Lords who have spoken in this group. I want to make one observation. My noble friend Lady Grender and the noble Lord, Lord Randall, talked about charities. Many charities provide services which nobody else pays for and they do not get government funding. For example, this will affect tremendously the hospice movement, which looks after terminally ill people. In my home city of Liverpool, there is a charity called Zoe’s Place that looks after terminally ill babies. It has had major building problems and was looking at having to close down. What happened? The local community and the business community all piled in and saved that building. These increased costs will affect that charity, as they will affect other charities too.

With thanks, I beg leave to withdraw my amendment.

National Insurance Contributions (Secondary Class 1 Contributions) Bill

Lord Livermore Excerpts

Committee stage
Wednesday 29th January 2025 Grand Committee

[Baroness Neville-Rolfe (Con)]

My Lords, I thank all noble Lords who have contributed to this valuable debate, especially those such as my noble friend Lady Lawlor who have run small businesses. Having heard the concerns from noble Lords across the Committee and from across the sectors, I hope that the Minister will consider these amendments very seriously before we get to Report.

We know that this jobs tax will be bad for small businesses. The Government have not provided sufficient information in the light of all the calls from hard-pressed businesses, so more detailed information is necessary. SMEs are more vulnerable, as the noble Lord, Lord Sharkey, said. Even covenants are at risk, as we heard from my noble friend Lord Leigh. The noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, rightly talked about scale-ups being knocked back because of the problems that they are facing. I was particularly interested to hear from the noble Lord, Lord Londesborough, and to see his amendments. He had some very telling questions based on SMEs and on particular examples. I think that the Minister and the Treasury should properly examine some of his spreadsheets and, indeed, some of the other examples raised today, such as by my noble friend Lord Howard of Rising, who rightly talked about international competitiveness, and my noble friend Lord Blackwell, who made a telling comment about the lower-margin sectors, start-up and scale-up.

It was notable that, in her growth speech today, Rachel Reeves had little to say about small businesses and the difficulty that these NICs changes have placed on them. As my noble friend Lady Noakes said, we are imperilling their success—their survival, even, in some cases—and the scale-ups that we need for growth. I detected a good deal of support for her amendment, so I hope that the Minister will bear that in mind. As I have explained, the Chancellor’s speech strengthens the case for an exemption or a concession to help some or all of our smallest businesses to survive and to thrive. I very much hope that the Minister will be able to respond positively.

[The Financial Secretary to the Treasury (Lord Livermore) (Lab)]

My Lords, I am grateful to all noble Lords for their contributions during this debate. I turn first to the amendments tabled by the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, and the noble Lord, Lord Altrincham, which seek to exempt from the employer national insurance rate rise employers with an annual turnover of less than £1 million, and the amendments by the noble Lord, Lord Londesborough, the noble Baronesses, Lady Neville-Rolfe and Lady Kramer, seeking to limit or remove the reduction in the secondary threshold by business size. Clearly, these amendments would have cost implications for this Bill, necessitating either higher borrowing, lower spending or alternative revenue-raising measures.

I agree very much with the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, and the noble Lord, Lord Sharkey, that small businesses are the heart of our economy. The Government are aware of the pressures on small businesses, which is why we are taking action as part of this Bill to protect the smallest businesses by increasing employment allowance from £5,000 to £10,500. This means that, next year, 865,000 employers will pay no national insurance at all. More than half of employers will see no change or will gain overall from this package, and employers will be able to employ up to four full-time workers on the national living wage and pay no employer national insurance.

The Government have also taken steps to strengthen small businesses’ ability to invest and grow. This includes freezing the small business multiplier, permanently reducing business rates for retail, hospitality and leisure properties from 2026-27 and publishing the Corporate Tax Roadmap to provide stability and certainty within the tax system for businesses across the economy.

I should also note, as my noble friend Lord Eatwell said, that creating new thresholds or rates based on the size of a business would introduce distortion and additional complexity into the tax system, and could disincentivise small businesses from growing by creating a cliff edge in the tax system.

I turn now to the amendment tabled by the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, and the noble Lord, Lord Altrincham, seeking to limit the reduction in the secondary threshold to £7,500 rather than the proposed £5,000. A smaller reduction in the secondary threshold, as is proposed by this amendment, would not raise the level of revenue required to fix the foundations and invest in our public services. It would mean higher borrowing, lower spending or alternative revenue-raising measures.

I now turn to the amendment tabled by the noble Baronesses, Lady Noakes and Lady Neville-Rolfe, and the noble Lords, Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon and Lord Howard of Rising, which would prevent commencement until an impact assessment is published for small businesses of various sizes. The revenue raised from the measures in this Bill will enable the Government to repair the public finances while protecting working people and rebuilding our public services, including the NHS. Delaying commencement of this Bill would put this vital revenue at risk.

As I have already noted in the previous session of this Committee and, as the noble Baroness, Lady Noakes, mentioned, an assessment of the policy has already been published by HMRC in a tax information and impact note. As the noble Lord, Lord Londesborough, said, that assessment set out that employers’ national insurance changes

“will impact around 1.2 million employers. Around 250,000 employers will see their Secondary Class 1 NICs liability decrease and around 940,000 will see it increase. Around 820,000 employers will see no change. Overall, more than half of businesses with NICs liabilities next year will either gain or will see no change in their secondary Class 1 NICs liabilities”.

I listened carefully to the specific examples given by the noble Lord, Lord Londesborough. He asked for some specific figures, which I am afraid I am told are not available because the liability is on employers, not employees. As such, the data is not collected in the format that the noble Lord asked for.

Further, the OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook sets out the expected macroeconomic impact of the changes to employer national insurance contributions on employment, growth and inflation. The Government and the OBR have, therefore, already set out the impacts of the policy change. This approach is in line with previous changes to national insurance and previous changes to taxation, and the Government do not intend to provide any further impact assessments.

After the previous session of the Committee, I looked back at comparable tax measures over the past 14 years to check that I was correct in saying that the assessment that we are providing is in line with what was provided on those previous occasions. I found four such measures of an equivalent size: the health and social care levy; the increase in the corporation tax main rate to 25%; the income tax threshold freezes of the previous Government; and the increase in the VAT main rate to 20%. I looked at all those and I am absolutely satisfied that what we are providing on this occasion is, in fact, more information than was provided on any of those occasions. In fact, on the occasion of the increase in VAT to 20%, no impact assessment was published at all.

Having studied those, I am very confident that what we are now providing is absolutely consistent with what previous Governments have provided, in terms of impact assessments, on all previous such equivalent occasions. I do not know whether noble Lords opposite, when they were in government, objected to the impact assessments that were put out on tax measures, but I am very confident that these are absolutely in line with what was put out in the past. As a result, the Government have no intention to provide any further impact assessments.

[Baroness Neville-Rolfe (Con)]

On impact assessments, I think I am well known for my requesting them—I even voted against my own Government on one occasion —because they are very important and helpful. I do not think that the Minister has yet answered, although he may go on to do so, the point that my noble friend Lady Noakes made about the effect of adding in the minimum wage to the impact note that was produced. That would probably increase the figures, as she suggested; and cost benefit and transparency are very helpful. We have another amendment on this, and we will return to the charge, but I am very disappointed that there is no willingness to look at the specific examples from the noble Lord, Lord Londesborough, on the technicalities, which seem to merit some attention from the Government. I think that the Government must share our concern that we minimise the effect on small businesses as far as we can, which is why I am trying to be constructive in today’s Committee.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I will simply restate my point to the noble Baroness: the approach that we are taking is absolutely in line with the approach taken to previous changes in national insurance and previous changes to taxation, and the Government do not intend to provide further impact assessments.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

I am most grateful to the Minister for giving way. I am slightly surprised, having listened to so many of his speeches since the general election, that he is holding up the practice of the previous Government as a standard by which he should be judged.

I asked specifically about the new proposals in the Budget for non-doms, which have turned out to be disastrous in terms of the number of people who have left, and which have forced the Chancellor to make changes. Does he not recognise that, had an impact statement been done, they might have discovered what the impact would have been? That is for the benefit not just of the Opposition but of the Government themselves. Accountability strengthens Governments; it does not weaken them. Can he not see that the idea of producing impact statements is absolutely central to the whole process of accountability and prevents the Government making disastrous mistakes of the kind that is proposed in this Bill?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I dispute the noble Lord’s description of the non-dom policy and the impacts that it has had. A tax information and impact note was put out alongside that policy, so we actually did put out an assessment alongside it.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

I am of course very familiar with that, but it was wrong, was it not? It was not an effective impact statement; otherwise, it would not have been necessary to change the policy.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

We have not changed the policy; we have made the policy easier to use. The policy is absolutely as it was at the Budget, as is the amount of revenue that we are scoring from it. An impact assessment was put out alongside that. My point is that what we are doing on impact assessments, on all the taxes that the noble Lord mentioned, is absolutely in line with what all previous Governments have done on impact assessments. We are content that that is a sufficient amount of information, and we do not intend to put out any further impact assessments.

Finally, I turn to the amendments tabled by the noble Lords, Lord Londesborough and Lord Altrincham, and the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, which seek to increase the employment allowance for small businesses. Again, the proposals in these amendments would create additional costs, necessitating either higher borrowing, lower spending or alternative revenue-raising measures.

The Bill already seeks to protect the smallest businesses and is significantly increasing the employment allowance from £5,000 to £10,500. This means that, next year, 865,000 employers will pay no national insurance at all, and more than half of employers will see no change, or gain overall, from this package. For the reasons I have set out, I respectfully ask noble Lords not to press their amendments.

[Lord Londesborough (CB)]

I thank the Minister for his comments, but I am disappointed and, frankly, baffled that the Treasury can tell us specifically—he repeated these figures—how many employers are impacted by the national insurance increase, yet there is a curious resistance to answering my specific and fair question: what percentage of jobs will attract an increase in national insurance contributions?

In October, the Department for Business and Trade helpfully provided a sectoral breakdown, by company size and number of jobs, under each category. It is fairly simple maths to come out with a reasonable estimate. This is in the interests of transparency; I am not trying to nail the Government here. Everyone should be able to understand across our economy, as we all share an interest in trying to generate economic growth, how many jobs are impacted. “Working people” is a favourite phrase that we keep hearing; how many of their jobs will be impacted?

If the Minister cannot produce the figures today, which I would respect, I request just a few minutes of research between the Treasury and the Department for Business and Trade. I believe that these figures could be produced very simply and that they would be very helpful in looking at the impact of this Bill. I cannot understand the resistance to it.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I am grateful to the noble Lord for his follow-up points. As I have said, we are not able to provide him with those figures and that remains the position.

[Lord Leigh of Hurley (Con)]

I asked for an impact assessment on the National Security and Investment Bill, and none was forthcoming, but this is in respect not to tax but to social security. Therefore, there are no precedents.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I disagree with the noble Lord. The previous Government’s health and social care levy is a very direct precedent.

[Baroness Neville-Rolfe (Con)]

I beg leave to withdraw the amendment.

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[Baroness Neville-Rolfe (Con)]

My Lords, I speak to Amendment 50 in my name, which would increase the employment allowance for farms from £10,500 to £20,000 and help to ease the very real cash-flow problems that many farmers now face. I would like to understand both the cost to the Exchequer and the plans that the Government have to ease pressures on the farming industry. This is vital to increasing self-sufficiency in food in these troubling international times.

I speak with some knowledge of the Wiltshire countryside, where I was brought up and retain a small and partial interest, set out in the register, in a couple of fields, let to a neighbour, on what was our family farm. My father’s business sadly went into insolvency in the 1960s. The farm was sold and the stock auctioned off—a very difficult day. I fear it is something that we may see more of again. As the noble Baroness, Lady Bakewell, said, farming is not a career choice for the faint-hearted.

I am grateful to my noble friend Lord Howard of Rising for tabling Amendment 36, which I fully support. It is intended to ensure that the Government publish a full impact assessment of the effect of this Bill on farms with regard to both the NICs costs and, separately, any offset for the increased employment allowance. Given the difficulties that farmers are facing on inheritance tax, fertiliser tax and the post-CAP changes to support, this is the least that the Government should do.

The noble Baroness, Lady Bakewell, in her compelling assessment of the squeeze on farmers, comes at the issue from a slightly different angle and suggests a review of the impact of the policy change, which is also worth considering. However, we would have to wait six months, by which time decisions on NICs, IHT and the fertiliser tax might be irreversible.

It has been made abundantly clear by now that this Government do not understand the importance of Britain’s farmers. The 2024 Labour Party manifesto claimed:

“Labour recognises that food security is national security”,


yet, since entering into Government, they have demonstrated the opposite. The Autumn Budget included a multitude of measures that will hammer farmers. The changes to agricultural property relief and business property relief could affect 33.5% of all farm holdings in the UK, according to the Treasury’s own figures. The vast majority in terms of numbers are small, family-run farms and, as we have discussed elsewhere, the Government need to think again about the right IHT thresholds.

The Government have also introduced carbon pricing on imported fertilisers through the UK carbon border adjustment mechanism, which will increase the cost of fertiliser that farms depend on to ensure adequate crop yields—up from approximately £25 a tonne to £75 a tonne. They have axed the rural services delivery grant introduced by the previous Government, meaning that rural councils will have less money to tackle the issues facing farms and rural communities. Given the already exorbitant costs facing farms, these measures could lead many to ruin. That goes back to my own experience in the 1960s and the excellent points made in the debate led by my noble friend Lord Leicester in December.

Above all, the proposals are putting a chill on rural communities, which are asking themselves why they elected so many Labour MPs and are writing to them, or getting on their tractors, to explore their discontent.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

My Lords, I am grateful to all noble Lords who have contributed to this debate. I will turn first to the amendments tabled by the noble Lord, Lord Howard of Rising, and the noble Baronesses, Lady Bakewell of Hardington Mandeville and Lady Kramer, which require impact assessments of this Bill on farms.

The Government, of course, recognise and greatly value the important role played by the farming sector. We carefully consider the impact of all policies, including the changes to employer national insurance. Indeed, as we have previously debated, an assessment of the policy has already been published by HMRC in the tax information and impact note, including impacts on the Exchequer, the economy, individuals, households, families, equalities, businesses including civil society organisations, and details of monitoring and evaluation. Further, the OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook sets out the expected macroeconomic impact of the changes to employer national insurance contributions on employment, growth and inflation. The Government have, therefore, already set out the impacts of this policy change. This approach is in line with previous changes to national insurance and previous changes for taxation, and the Government do not intend to publish further impact assessments.

I now turn to the amendments tabled by the noble Baroness, Lady Bakewell of Hardington Mandeville and Lady Kramer, seeking to exempt the salaries of farmers from the increase in employer national insurance, and the amendments tabled by the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, and the noble Lord, Lord Altrincham, seeking to increase the employment allowance for persons employed on farms. This amendment would reduce the revenue raised from this Bill and require either higher borrowing, lower spending or alternative revenue-raising measures. I also note that creating new thresholds or rates based on the sector of a business would introduce distortion and additional complexity into the tax system.

Despite the difficult fiscal situation, the farming and countryside programme budget has been protected at £5 billion across the across the next two years. This includes the largest ever proportion of the Budget directed at sustainable food production and nature recovery in our country’s history. This will accelerate the transition to a more resilient and sustainable farming sector, support investment in farm businesses and boost Britain’s food security. The Secretary of State for Defra has also set out the Government’s long-term vision to make farming more profitable. This includes reforms such as using the Government’s purchasing power to buy British food, planning reforms to speed up the delivery of farm buildings and other infrastructure that support food production, and work to ensure supply chain fairness.

For the reasons that I have set out, I respectfully ask noble Lords to withdraw or not move their amendments.

[Baroness Bakewell of Hardington Mandeville (LD)]

My Lords, I thank the Minister for his response. The impact assessment needs to go further than farms and cover the supply chain. I am sure he will be aware of that in six months’ time. I thank noble Lords who have taken part in this short debate.

Amendment 36 of the noble Lord, Lord Howard of Rising, is also about making an assessment of the impact of the rise in national insurance. The noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, talked about raising the employment allowance to £20,000. I have some sympathy with that.

I am disappointed that the Minister is unable to agree to my amendment, which would make a considerable difference to small farms. However, I can see that he is not going to change his mind, and I beg leave to withdraw the amendment.

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[Lord Blackwell (Con)]

My Lords, I want to add to the comments made by my noble friend Lord Altrincham in introducing these amendments. He spoke of a large number of young people who are not in economic activity, full-time education or training. Labour market statistics are notoriously difficult to interpret, as we know, but, if you take the unemployment rate he quoted—around 14%—we know that, in addition, a worryingly large number of people in this age group are also on long-term sickness benefits. All of them could be in productive work, with the right support and encouragement.

A number of Members of this Committee are also members of the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee, which recently did a review of this area. Some of the evidence that we took made the point that, once a young person moves on to long-term benefits without ever having had meaningful employment experience, it becomes increasingly difficult for them to get work. They become stranded in a benefit life, which is not only wasteful for them but a huge cost to the taxpayer.

In stressing the importance of making it economically attractive for employers to take on young workers such as these, I wonder whether the Government should consider going further than these amendments: not just retain the existing levels of national insurance contributions for employers for this age group but reduce the national insurance contributions of young workers to give an additional incentive to help them, at this early stage in their lives, into a meaningful working career.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

My Lords, I am grateful to all noble Lords who have taken part in this debate. I will address the amendments tabled by the noble Lord, Lord Altrincham, and the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, which seek to exempt the salaries of young people from the increase in employer national insurance.

An employer national insurance relief is already available for the earnings of those aged under 21 and for apprentices aged under 25, meaning that employers are not required to pay national insurance contributions up to £50,270 for these groups. Despite the challenging fiscal inheritance that this Government faced, we are maintaining these important reliefs for under-21s and apprentices under 25; they are not changing as a result of this Bill. Creating other thresholds and rates based on the age of staff would add additional complexity to the tax system. These amendments would introduce new pressures that would have to be met by more borrowing, lower spending or alternative revenue-raising measures.

The noble Lord, Lord Altrincham, mentioned NEETs. I completely agree with him, but the situation that this Government inherited is completely unacceptable. That is why, at the Budget, the Government announced £240 million to fund 16 pilot projects across England and Wales in order to improve the support available to the economically inactive, the unemployed and people who want to develop their careers. This will include eight youth guarantee pilots to test new ways of supporting young people into employment or training.

It is also why, in the spring, the Government will bring forward a welfare reform Green Paper. I have read with interest the proposals mentioned by the noble Lord, Lord Blackwell, from the Economic Affairs Committee of your Lordships’ House; I hope that many of them will feature in that Green Paper. For now, given the points that I have set out, I respectfully ask the noble Lord to withdraw his amendment.

[Lord Altrincham (Con)]

I beg leave to withdraw my amendment.

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[Lord Altrincham (Con)]

This is an interesting set of amendments, given that, in essence, through this policy the Government are looking to take £1 billion out of the charity sector to fund public services, when the charity sector obviously provides public services—so it is a uniquely baffling government initiative. We on these Benches absolutely support the comments made by the noble Baroness, Lady Bennett, on Amendment 11A and by my noble friend Lady Sater on Amendment 32.

I speak to Amendment 52, in my name and that of my noble friend Lady Neville-Rolfe. This amendment would increase the employment allowance for charities from £10,500 to £20,000 to assist with the burden being placed upon charities. It is a probing amendment, and I would like to understand the cost that this would have for the Treasury and the plans the Government have to support the sector with the increased costs and the rise.

The remarkable comments made by the National Council for Voluntary Organisations, and its estimate that this will cost the sector £1.4 billion every year, has been referenced in this debate by my noble friend Lord Leigh and others. It would leave charities in a position where they are unable to absorb the costs and will, as a result, be forced to reduce the number of services they provide. In essence, as we talked about on day 1 in Committee, these services are public services. Charities in this country have become quasi-public service providers in the last 20 years, and it is most unlikely that, in pulling back services, those services would not have to be provided by the Government elsewhere. It is therefore most unlikely that the Government will not wear the costs of this change. It is naive to assume that charities provide some other service that is not a public service or a substitute for a public service.

The Government will be well aware of the severe issues that charities are facing, following the open letter from the NCVO to express concern that three out of four charities will have to withdraw from public service delivery or are considering doing so. This is an extraordinary way to treat a sector that would provide a public service. In fact, the Government have accepted the principle that the delivery of public services should not face this tax, following the exemption of both the Civil Service and the NHS. What justification does the Minister therefore have for the exemption of some providers of public services but not charities? Charities provide close to £17 billion in public services every single year, and the services they provide are invaluable to communities across the country, so a failure to protect them would be devastating.

I support my noble friend Lady Sater’s Amendment 32 and recognise the importance of the Government fully assessing the impact that this tax increase will have on the sector. The Government owe it to charities to fully consider the impact that this will have across the sector and, as such, I hope the Government will consider both Amendments 32 and 52 very carefully as we progress.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

My Lords, I am grateful to all noble Lords who have contributed to this debate. I will address the amendments tabled by the noble Baronesses, Lady Bennett of Manor Castle and Lady Neville-Rolfe, and the noble Lord, Lord Altrincham, which seek to maintain the rates of employer national insurance for charities at 13.8% and increase the employment allowance specifically for charities from £10,500 to £20,000. The Government of course greatly value the vital work that charities do in this country, and I have listened carefully to all the points that have been raised in this debate.

It is important to recognise that all charities benefit from the employment allowance, which the Bill more than doubles from £5,000 to £10,500. This will benefit charities of all sizes, particularly the smallest charities. The Government also provide wider support for charities via the tax—

[Baroness Kramer (LD)]

Is the Minister saying that there is a misunderstanding? Where charities are providing services to the public sector above 50% of their revenue, I think, they are ruled out of claiming employment allowance. I do not understand the intricacies of that, but there is something there.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

That would be a misunderstanding, yes. I just repeat that all charities benefit from the employment allowance, which this Bill more than doubles from £5,000 to £10,500.

The Government also provide wider support for charities via the tax regime. This tax regime is among the most generous in the world, with tax reliefs for charities and their donors worth just over £6 billion for the tax year to April 2024. Providing further relief for the sector would have additional cost implications and would require either more borrowing, lower spending or alternative revenue-raising measures.

--- Later in debate ---

[Baroness Neville-Rolfe (Con)]

My Lords, I shall just say this briefly: we need more transparency on such a major policy change, but we are not getting it. There is a large negative impact on business and charities, which is—I agree with my noble friend Lady Noakes, a fellow-in-crime in asking for impact assessments—unprecedented. As my noble friend Lord Blackwell said, we are seeing a shift in jobs from the private sector to the public sector, which we fear is bad for jobs, productivity and growth. That is why we need to find a way of getting better assessment and having a process for review.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I am grateful to all noble Lords who have contributed to this debate. The noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, and the noble Lords, Lord Altrincham and Lord Londesborough, have tabled amendments that seek to delay the commencement of this Act until a further impact assessment is conducted on the economy. The noble Baroness, Lady Lawlor, has tabled an amendment that would delay commencement until a report is laid detailing the impacts on businesses of different sizes and on employment and wages.

As I have said previously, the revenue raised from the measures in this Bill will enable the Government to repair the public finances while protecting working people and rebuilding our public services, including the NHS. Delaying commencement of this Bill would put this vital revenue at risk and would require either more borrowing, lower spending or alternative revenue-raising measures. That is not the Government’s intention.

The Government do not believe that there is a need, as set out in these amendments, for further impact assessments on different sectors and economic indicators. As we have debated in previous groups today, as is the case with all tax policies, the Government have already published an assessment of the policy in the tax information and impact note. This includes impacts on the Exchequer; the economy; individuals; households and families; equalities; and businesses, including civil society organisations—as well as details on monitoring and evaluation. The tax information and impact note clearly sets out that around 250,000 employers will see their secondary class 1 national insurance contributions liability decrease, while around 940,000 will see it increase and around 820,000 employers will see no change.

The noble Baronesses, Lady Neville-Rolfe and Lady Lawlor, asked for specific additional detail. The noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, asked in particular for a breakdown of the three lines of each of the three measures. My honourable friend the Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury has provided that information via various Written Answers. On 29 November, he published an estimate of the cost of the increase to the employment allowance at £3.6 billion. On 23 January, he published via a parliamentary Question the estimated revenue from increasing the rate at £12.4 billion and from reducing the secondary threshold at £18.6 billion. Beyond that, the Government have set out the impact analysis of this Bill that they intend to set out, in line with previous changes to taxation, and they do not intend to publish additional data or assessments.

[Baroness Neville-Rolfe (Con)]

It would be helpful if he could write to clarify these figures. There have been figures made available, but they have not been made available to the Committee. They were made available in the other place in answer to some questions. The least he could do is write to the Committee with what figures there are, explaining how the splits work and giving that helpful figure on the employment allowance.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

The noble Baroness says that it is the least that I can do; I have actually just read out the figures to the Committee. I think that is providing the information that she asked for. If she did not hear it, I am more than happy to set it out in a letter to her so that she can read it. As I say, they have been published in Written Answers and I have just read them out to the Committee, so I am not sure that her phrase “the least I can do” is appropriate in this instance.

As the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, also said, the OBR’s economic and fiscal outlook already sets out the expected macroeconomic impact of the changes to employer national insurance contributions on employment, growth and inflation. The Government and the OBR have therefore already set out the impacts of this policy change. The information provided is in line with other tax changes, and the Government do not intend to publish further impact assessments. Given the points that I have made, I respectfully ask noble Lords to withdraw or not to press their amendments.

[Baroness Neville-Rolfe (Con)]

I beg leave to withdraw my amendment.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

My Lords, I am grateful to all noble Lords who contributed today. I have of course listened very carefully to all the points made.

I will address the amendments tabled by the noble Baronesses, Lady Monckton of Dallington Forest, Lady Neville-Rolfe and Lady Barran, and the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Southwark about the impact of the Bill on persons who provide transport for children with special education needs and disabilities. I will endeavour to get the right reverend Prelate an answer to his letter as quickly as possible; I apologise to him for not having replied sooner.

The Government of course carefully consider the impact of their policies, including these changes to employer national insurance. As I noted previously, an assessment of the policy has already been published by HMRC in its tax information and impact note.

On the specific issue of the provision of transport for children with special educational needs and disabilities, the Government are committed to improving provision in mainstream state schools, while also ensuring that state special schools can cater to those with the most complex needs. At the Budget, the Government announced a £1 billion uplift in high-needs funding, and £740 million into creating more inclusive specialist places in mainstream schools and undertaking the adaptations that may be required in mainstream schools to make them more accessible. The aim is to reduce the cost of transport, because far too many children are being transported to other local authorities, over a large distance and time, as they cannot be educated locally.

There are several ways in which a local authority can fulfil its requirements to provide free school transport to eligible children, including those with special educational needs, disabilities or mobility problems. At the Budget and as part of the recent provisional local government finance settlement, the Government announced over £2 billion of new grant funding for local government in 2025-26. This includes £515 million to support councils with the increase in employer national insurance contributions.

This £515 million of additional funding has been determined based on a national assessment of the costs for directly employed staff across the public sector. However, this funding is unring-fenced, and it is for local authorities to determine how to use this funding across relevant services and responsibilities. This is part of an overall increase in additional grant funding for local authorities in 2025-26 of over £2 billion, resulting in an estimated 3.5% real-terms increase in core spending power.

Given the points I have set out, I respectfully ask noble Lords not to press their amendments.

[Baroness Monckton of Dallington Forest (Con)]

My Lords, I am grateful for all the thoughtful contributions to this debate, and I thank the Minister for his comments. I urge him to consider the amendments we have been debating and to understand the essential services provided by the SEND transport sector. It is wonderful that he is putting more money into the schools, but if these children cannot get there, it will not really work. However, for the moment, I beg leave to withdraw my amendment.

National Insurance Contributions (Secondary Class 1 Contributions) Bill

Lord Livermore Excerpts

Committee stage
Tuesday 4th February 2025 Grand Committee

[The Financial Secretary to the Treasury (Lord Livermore) (Lab)]

My Lords, I am grateful to all noble Lords for their contributions to this debate. I will address the amendments tabled by the noble Baronesses, Lady Noakes and Lady Neville-Rolfe, which would phase in the introduction of the secondary threshold cut to £6,760 in the next tax year and £5,000 from 2026-27.

I absolutely appreciate the concerns raised by noble Lords during this debate, and by businesses, about the impacts of the Bill. It was a privilege to hear the insights and expertise of the noble Lord, Lord Wolfson, and I greatly appreciate the constructive spirit of his contribution. However, as I have set out previously in this Committee, the Bill is necessary to repair the public finances, to protect working people and to invest in Britain’s future, including by providing more than £20 billion extra for the NHS over this year and next. This funding will reduce waiting times by supporting the NHS to deliver 40,000 extra elective appointments a week and will make progress towards the commitment that patients should expect to wait no longer than 18 weeks from referral to treatment. Reducing the threshold by less than that set out in the Bill would reduce the revenue generated by it and would therefore introduce new pressures, which would have to be met by more borrowing, lower spending or alternative revenue-raising measures.

Given these points, I respectfully ask the noble Baroness not to press her amendments.

[Lord Wolfson of Aspley Guise (Con)]

Before the Minister sits down, can he say how much this amendment and the resulting delay would cost the Government? That would help those of us on this side of the Committee to understand why this is not possible.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

The Government tend to cost the Government’s policies. It is not usual practice for the Government to cost Opposition policies.

[Lord Leigh of Hurley (Con)]

Before the Minister sits down, will he commit to having the Treasury look at the numbers I mooted? I will happily send him the spreadsheet if it helps to verify whether they are accurate.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

The noble Lord set out some figures that are based on his assumptions, not the Government’s assumptions. I have no reason to dispute his maths or the computing power of Microsoft Excel, but I do not think I can commit Treasury resources to checking the figures in his own spreadsheet.

[Baroness Noakes (Con)]

My Lords, first, I thank all my noble friends for taking part in this debate and supporting these amendments. They were put forward as a constructive way to deal with what could be some very damaging impacts caused by the Government’s legislation.

I was confused by the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, saying that she is against the Bill, so she does not want to engage in ways of making things better. As His Majesty’s loyal Opposition, we believe that what we are here to do is try to make policies better, even though we disagree with virtually all the Bills the Government are putting forward at the moment. Our job is to engage constructively and, certainly, to try to avoid damaging aspects.

My noble friend Lord Wolfson spoke about being able to pass on price increases of 1%; he has an amazing luxury, because not all retailers can do that. At the weekend, I got talking to a local businessman who owns a number of shops. Most of his workforce are part-time staff. He employs quite a lot of people in and around our villages, and in the neighbouring villages, where he has other shops. He said that he does not know what to do. He cannot increase prices because the goods he sells do not lend themselves to significant price increases. The only thing he can do is to reduce hours or numbers. These measures means that our local economies—things that are really important to people—will be damaged by less income for local families. They are having really significant impacts, whether at the large end of business or the very smallest end.

I regret the Minister just saying again and again that he has to repair the finances and put more money into public services because he wants to protect working people. The one thing he is not doing with these changes is protecting working people. I sincerely hope that, between Committee and Report, the Government will think about whether they can find ways of making this Bill less damaging. We are not arguing that the Bill should not exist—we do not believe that that is our role, and we did not vote against it at Second Reading and certainly would not have done so—but there are many ways of softening its edges. I hope the Government will consider that between now and Report.

With that, I beg leave to withdraw the amendment.

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[Baroness Lawlor (Con)]

My Lords, I support these important amendments. Today, all three and four year-olds in England are entitled to free education before they start school full time at the age of five. In the year 2023-24, there were almost 23 children for every teacher—the highest ratio thus far. If we continue with this measure without amendment, we will see an even higher ratio, with the number of adults declining because of the costs, as we heard previously in Committee and again today. We have 3,100 nursery schools and 11,700 day nurseries, and they play an integral part in the induction of little people into the world of education. They are vital to the well-being of the child and, indeed, to parents being able to pay their way with confidence that their children are receiving an early years education. I urge the Minister to provide an exemption, or to ensure in one way or another that early years education and care providers, whether in a nursery school, a day nursery or another system—voluntary and independent, as well as public sector—are prevented from losing teachers due to the additional costs.

I echo what my noble friend Lady Neville-Rolfe said. I would be very happy with an increased employment allowance. We need an impact assessment, given the large number of people employed in this sector and the impact this measure will have on children’s education later in life. We are now paying the price of the Covid lockdown, with the children who passed through schooling at that age. Let us stop making things difficult for early years provision and try to improve it, not disimprove it by such a measure.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

My Lords, I will address the amendment tabled by the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, which seeks to prevent commencement of this Bill until an impact assessment is published for the early years sector.

Delaying commencement of the Bill would reduce the revenue generated from it and require either higher borrowing, lower public spending or alternative revenue-raising measures. The Government carefully consider the impacts of all policies, including the changes to employer national insurance. As I have stated previously in Committee, an assessment of the policy has been published by HMRC in its tax information and impact note, including impacts on the Exchequer, the economy, individuals, households and families, equalities and businesses, including civil society organisations, with details on monitoring and evaluation.

Further, the OBR’s economic and fiscal outlook sets out the expected macroeconomic impact of the changes to employer national insurance contributions on employment, growth and inflation. The Government and the OBR have therefore already set out the impacts of the policy change. This approach is in line with previous changes to national insurance and taxation, and the Government do not intend to provide further impact assessments.

Amendment 40, tabled by the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, and the noble Lord, Lord Altrincham, seeks to increase the employment allowance for early years providers. This would introduce new pressures which would have to be met by either more borrowing, lower spending or alternative revenue-raising measures. I also note that creating new thresholds or rates based on what sector a business is in would introduce distortion and additional complexity into the tax system.

The noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, asked for some specific figures. The figures are not broken down in the way that she asks for.

Early years providers have a crucial role to play in driving economic growth and breaking down barriers to opportunity. We are committed to making childcare more affordable and accessible. That is why, in our manifesto, the Government committed to delivering the expansion of government-funded childcare for working parents and to opening 3,000 new or expanded nurseries through upgrading space in primary schools to support the expansion of the sector.

Despite the very challenging fiscal circumstances the Government inherited, at the Budget the Chancellor announced significant increases to the funding that early years providers are paid to deliver government-funded childcare places. This means that total funding will rise to more than £8 billion in 2025-26.

In light of these points, I respectfully ask the noble Baroness to withdraw her amendment.

[Baroness Neville-Rolfe (Con)]

I thank the Minister for his response. I hope that in the light of what has been said today and on previous days, the Government will look at the impact of these NICs changes on our early years sector.

When we were in government, we took steps to support the early years sector, and we know that the national insurance increase is going to be a significant setback. My noble friend Lady Lawlor talked about the numbers of providers spread across the country, which play a huge part in the induction to the world of education and in helping young people to get the right kind of start in life. The very least the Government can do is to look at the impact note again and produce an assessment of the impact of the policy on the early years sector in particular, not just the overall economic impact. We have heard from the Minister on several occasions that they have produced a note, but it is a macroeconomic—an overall—note, while what we have here are very big changes in the economy affecting individual sectors, some of them very badly. There does not seem to be any readiness to look at the impact in those sectors and to find solutions, whether through national insurance changes or some other way. I suggested the employment allowance as another route.

The noble Lord will also recall that when in government we took steps to increase the supply of early years provision by expanding the childminding sector and encouraging the establishment of new nurseries alongside our expansion of the 30-hours free childcare policy. Without an assessment of the impact of these changes, how can the Government be sure that they will be able to deliver on the ambitious plans that the Minister set out to expand free childcare hours for hard-working families? I think there is a measure of agreement on objectives, but we need to find a way to get there.

These are important questions, and Ministers need to answer them before we get to Report. It is intolerable that we are pressing ahead with a jobs tax without a full assessment of the policy. We have had some macro figures, now broken down into three chunks, but it is very difficult for us to know what the individual effect is on different sectors. This is a serious matter. Working families across the country are very concerned. My worry is that the noise of concerns on something such as early years will increase as April comes and early years providers discover just what sort of hole they are in, but in the interests of time, I beg leave to withdraw my amendment.

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[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

My Lords, I will address Amendments 29 and 41. I am grateful to all noble Lords for their contributions. I acknowledge the powerful contribution from the noble Baroness, Lady Monckton of Dallington Forest; I listened very carefully to all the points that she and other noble Lords made.

As I noted in a previous sitting of this Committee, it is important to recognise that all charities, including hospices, can benefit from the employment allowance, which this Bill more than doubles, from £5,000 to £10,500. This will benefit charities of all sizes, particularly the smallest ones. The Government also provide wider support for charities, including hospices, via the tax regime. This tax regime is among the most generous in the world, with tax reliefs for charities and their donors worth just over £6 billion for the tax year to April 2024.

On the specific point made by the noble Lord, Lord Leigh of Hurley, the situation whereby independent contractors, including primary care providers, social care providers, charities and nurseries, will not be supported with the costs arising from these changes is exactly the same as with the changes to employer national insurance rates under the previous Government’s plan for the health and social care levy.

This Government have provided a real-terms increase of 3.5% in core local government spending power for 2025-26, including £880 million of new grant funding provided to social care. This funding can be used to address the range of pressures facing the adult social care sector. We are also supporting the hospice sector with an increase in funding of £100 million for adult and children’s hospices to ensure that they have the best physical environment for care—

[Lord Scriven (LD)]

Can the Minister confirm that the £100 million is capital and cannot be used for revenue?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

We are also providing an additional £26 million of revenue to support children and young people’s hospices.

As I have said previously, delaying commencement of the Bill would reduce the revenue generated from it and require either higher borrowing, lower public spending or alternative revenue-raising measures. The Government carefully consider the impacts of all policies, of course, including the changes to employer national insurance. As I have also said previously, an assessment of the policy has already been published by HMRC in its tax information and impact note.

Further, the OBR’s economic and fiscal outlook sets out the expected macroeconomic impact of the changes. The Government and the OBR have therefore already set out the impacts of this policy change. This approach is in line with previous changes to national insurance and to taxation. The Government do not intend to provide further impact assessments.

In the light of the points I have made, I respectfully ask the noble Baroness to withdraw her amendment.

[Baroness Monckton of Dallington Forest (Con)]

My Lords, I am grateful for the thoughtful contributions to this debate from my noble friends Lady Sater, Lord Leigh and Lord Swire. I note the contribution on Amendment 41 in the name of my noble friend Lady Neville-Rolfe. All I can say is that I urge the Minister to consider carefully the amendments we have been debating and to acknowledge the essential services provided by the hospice sector. However, for the moment, I beg leave to withdraw the amendment.

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[Baroness Neville-Rolfe (Con)]

My Lords, I shall speak to Amendment 51 and I support Amendment 30 in the name of my noble friend Lady Monckton, presented by my noble friend Lord Altrincham, who started by drawing attention to the very substantial number of people we are talking about in retail—hundreds of thousands of people—and the problems they are facing. As my noble friend Lady Lawlor said, jobs are being cut at the fastest rate since the financial crisis. This is a grim situation.

My Amendment 51 probes whether the Government would be willing to increase the employment allowance from £10,500 to £20,000 to offer support to the smallest businesses in the retail sector at a modest cost to the Exchequer. As my noble friend Lord Altrincham noted, our retail sector is invaluable in terms of the value it creates for our economy. In 2023, retail accounted for 4.7% of the UK’s total economic output, worth more than £110 billion. Much of this value added was in small shops, from barbers and hairdressers to farm shops. For every £1 spent in 2024, 30p was spent in food shops and 11p in clothing shops. Retail accounts for at least 50% of spending in Britain, but despite that, this Government—unlike the previous Labour Government, I have to say—appear not to understand the value that this sector provides to our economy and the jobs that it provides, particularly, as the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, said, for part-time workers on low pay.

There have been warnings from a range of sources about the devastating impact of this tax raid on workers, who will face fewer pay rises or fewer working hours, and on businesses, which will be forced to raise prices in order to maintain their business. The British Chambers of Commerce warned that more than half of firms intended to raise prices in response to these tax hikes, and we have had a detailed analysis from the noble Lord, Lord Wolfson, a non-food retailer. He acknowledged that price rises or job losses in the food sector and food stores might be worse because of the lower margins in that part of the industry. I am glad that the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, referenced the noble Lord, Lord Londesborough. It is good to see him back. He also tabled an amendment in a previous sitting which I very much supported.

There is further evidence that the Government have to think again, and there is an array of ways of doing so. I hope that, before Report, the Government will sit down, think about the devastating effects of these changes and consider whether there are ways, small or large, of alleviating their impact on many sectors of the economy and of social enterprise, which we will come on to discuss again.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

My Lords, Amendment 30, tabled by the noble Baroness, Lady Monckton of Dallington Forest, and moved by the noble Lord, Lord Altrincham, seeks to prevent commencement of the Bill until an impact assessment is published for the retail sector. Delaying commencement of the Bill would reduce the revenue generated from it and require either higher borrowing, lower public spending or alternative revenue-raising measures. The Government carefully consider the impacts of all policies, including the changes to employer national insurance.

As I have said previously, an impact assessment of the policy has been published by HMRC in its tax information and impact note. Further, the OBR’s economic and fiscal outlook sets out the expected macroeconomic impact of the changes to employer national insurance contributions. The Government and the OBR have therefore already set out the impacts of the policy change. This approach is in line with previous changes to national insurance and to taxation, and the Government do not intend to provide further impact assessments.

Amendment 51, tabled by the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, and the noble Lord, Lord Altrincham, seeks to increase the employment allowance for those employed in the retail sectors. The Government are taking action as part of the Bill to protect the smallest businesses by increasing the employment allowance from £5,000 to £10,500. This means that next year, 865,000 employers will pay no national insurance at all, and more than half of employers will see no change or will gain overall from this package. This means that employers will be able to employ up to four full-time workers on the national living wage and pay no employer national insurance.

The Budget also set out further steps that the Government are taking to strengthen small businesses’ ability to invest and grow, including in the retail sector. This includes freezing the small business multiplier, permanently reducing business tax rates for retail, hospitality and leisure properties from 2026-27, and publishing the Corporate Tax Roadmap to provide stability and certainty within the tax system for businesses across the economy.

Increasing the employment allowance for specific sectors would add additional complexity to the tax system and, by adding further spending pressures, would require higher borrowing, lower spending or alternative revenue-raising measures. In light of the points I have made, I respectfully ask the noble Lord to withdraw his amendment and other noble Lords not to press their amendments.

[Lord Leigh of Hurley (Con)]

The Minister helpfully said in his opening remarks that not doing this would mean that the Government would have to increase borrowing, reduce spending or increase taxes. Yesterday—I think—I tried to be helpful by suggesting to him that there is a way of raising further revenue by amending the digital services tax to make it effective and looking at VAT on imported goods below £135. Since then, the American Government have announced that they are looking to put import taxes on goods below £135 imported from China, and the Times reported that the digital services tax was being looked at again.

In this context, will my noble friend, or rather the Minister—I beg his pardon; as he knows, I already regard him as a noble friend—reconsider what other options there might be to replace the areas of taxation which noble Peers on this side of the Committee have expressed concerns about?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I am grateful to the noble Lord for his comments and very happy to be his noble friend once again. As he knows, the Government keep all taxation under review, and I will take his submissions as representations on that matter.

[Lord Altrincham (Con)]

Perhaps we should not offer the Minister any more taxation ideas because we are trying to rein him in at the moment and, obviously, VAT is very much in scope and is coming next, so perhaps we should just hold back. But I thank him for his response and beg leave to withdraw my amendment.

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[Baroness Neville-Rolfe (Con)]

My Lords, I shall speak to my Amendment 49, and I support Amendment 31 in the name of my noble friend Lady Monckton of Dallington Forest. The fact is that, as we have also heard from the noble Lord, Lord Londesborough, we need an impact assessment here as well so that we can assess where to make changes and what impact this jobs tax is having.

My Amendment 49, along with others that I have tabled, would increase the employment allowance from £10,500 to £20,000. This sector, which is so important to our day-to-day life and to our tourist industry, is full of part-time workers and the lowest paid will suffer a tsunami from the NICs changes. We need to find a way of alleviating the pain, and my amendment is one such proposal.

It is a particular pleasure to welcome the noble Baroness, Lady Fleet, to the Committee and to hear her evidence of the impact on the arts. She is right that the creative industries and hospitality are integrally linked, but I was equally concerned to hear about the impact on museums, theatres and other aspects of the creative arts. She is also right that, on this evidence, the Government are no friend of the arts; that should be of concern to the Committee.

My noble friend Lady Monckton was right to talk of the spiral of price increases, the diversionary pressure on management, the impact on capital investment and the effect on jobs, especially the lowest level jobs. They are particularly hit by the double whammy, as I have said already today, of the changes in NICs and the national minimum wage, which will particularly bite younger people. For good reasons, the national minimum wage for younger people has been increased, but that is making a particular difficulty in terms of hiring them, which I fear we shall see in the results in the coming months.

I have further evidence about hospitality, which I think some local papers may be interested in, so I will run through it because it is important. There have been calls from across the sector about how damaging the tax will be. Restaurateur Tom Kerridge, despite backing Labour at the election, has expressed concern that this tax raid will have “a catastrophic effect”. He said that it would cost,

“£850 extra per member of staff per year”

and have a reaction into a negative process in terms of employment. He also said:

“This is a very difficult time for hospitality, because the next few weeks are particularly busy. They give a false sense of feeling that everything is okay … it’s going to have a catastrophic effect, moving into the new year”.


He said that just before Christmas, and things have got worse.

On top of that, UKHospitality said that the national insurance increase at the Budget will lead to business closures and job losses within a year. It said that

“the changes to the NICs threshold are not just unsustainable for our businesses, they are regressive in their impact on lower earners and will impact flexible working practices which many older workers and parents rely on. Unquestionably, they will lead to business closures and to job losses within a year”.

I was particularly pleased to hear from the noble Lord, Lord Londesborough, about his new evidence on pubs. The British Institute of Innkeeping, which has warned that the Budget will see 75% of pubs cut hours, thinks that 40% will reduce opening times and that one in three will make staff redundant. It said:

“The Budget, billed to support working people, will pull the rug out from under these already fragile small businesses and significantly reduce the employment opportunities they can provide. 75% will cut staff hours, 40% will reduce opening hours and 1-in-3 will make staff redundant”.


This will have an extraordinarily damaging impact on the sector and the economy.

More than 200 leading restaurant, pub and hotel companies including Stonegate, Greene King, Wetherspoons and Young’s wrote to the Chancellor warning that the Budget will cost the industry £3.4 billion a year. They said:

“As leaders of hospitality businesses, we are compelled to highlight our grave fears about the impact of the Budget, particularly relating to the Employer NICs threshold. Alongside the changes to the national minimum wage levels this will cost hospitality—at a conservative estimate—£3.4 billion a year”.


I would be grateful if the Minister would provide an actual number.

Finally, Simon Emeny, chief executive of Fuller’s, which owns about 400 pubs and hotels and employs almost 5,000 people, said he was “just utterly disappointed” by the Chancellor’s choices. He claimed they “disproportionately” impacted hospitality, which is a big employer of young people and part-time workers.

These are real impacts and the Government’s changes are disproportionately affecting mainly small and vibrant businesses such as these. The biggest hit is from the decrease in the threshold, which could be phased in. Alternatively, the Government could help smaller businesses by increasing the employment allowance, as I have also suggested. I simply urge the Government to act.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

My Lords, I will address the amendment tabled by the noble Baroness, Lady Monckton of Dallington Forest, which seeks to prevent commencement of this Bill until an impact assessment is published for the hospitality sector. Delaying commencement of this Bill would reduce the revenue generated from it and require either higher borrowing, lower public spending or alternative revenue-raising measures. The Government, of course, carefully consider the impacts of all policies, including the changes to employer national insurance.

As I have said before, an assessment of the policy has been published by HMRC in its tax information and impact note. Further, the OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook sets out the expected macroeconomic impact of the changes to employer national insurance contributions. The Government and the OBR have therefore already set out the impacts of the policy change. This approach is in line with previous changes to national insurance and to taxation, and the Government do not intend to provide further impact assessments.

I turn to the amendment tabled by the noble Lady, Baroness Neville-Rolfe, and the noble Lord, Lord Altrincham, which seeks to increase the employment allowance for those employed in the hospitality sectors. The Government are taking action as part of this Bill to protect the smallest businesses by increasing the employment allowance from £5,000 to £10,500. This means that next year, 865,000 employers will pay no employer national insurance at all; more than half of employers see no change, or gain overall, from this package. The specific data the noble Baroness requested is not broken down in the way she asks for.

Increasing the employment allowance for specific sectors would add additional complexity to the tax system, and adding further spending pressures would require higher borrowing, lower spending or alternative revenue-raising measures. In light of these points, I respectfully ask the noble Baroness to withdraw her amendment.

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[Baroness Neville-Rolfe (Con)]

I was actually asking the question about this, as we did on charities. The Minister confirmed the position very helpfully last time, and I am asking him to clarify the position and look positively at trying to extend this. I am delighted that some community pharmacies get the employment allowance and would like to see it increased to alleviate difficulties in the sorts of small chemists I was talking about. If we can find another way, I would be delighted as well, but this 50% rule seems a bit odd, and I wonder whether the Minister could clarify or have a look at it. Frankly, it was very good to hear from the noble Lord, Lord Scriven, in view of his role in community pharmacies, and, more worryingly, to learn from him just how many pharmacies are closing. When I was in retail and we had pharmacies, there was actually a battle to buy extra licences so that more pharmacies could be opened. If it is going in the other direction, that is not good news for our healthcare services, which we all care so much about.

I look forward to a positive response from the Minister on this important area, which is complicated.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

My Lords, I will address the amendment tabled by the noble Lord, Lord Jackson of Peterborough, which seeks to prevent commencement of the Bill until an impact assessment is published for community pharmacies. Delaying its commencement would reduce the revenue generated from it and require either higher borrowing, lower public spending or alternative revenue-raising measures.

The Government carefully consider the impacts of all policies, including the changes to employer national insurance. As I have said before, an assessment of the policy has been published by HMRC in its tax information and impact note. Further, the OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook sets out the expected macroeconomic impact of the changes to employer national insurance contributions. The Government and the OBR have therefore already set out the impacts of the policy change. This approach is in line with previous changes to national insurance and taxation and the Government do not intend to provide further impact assessments.

I turn to the amendments tabled by the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, and the noble Lord, Lord Altrincham, which seek to increase the employment allowance for those employed in primary care, including in GP surgeries, dentist surgeries and pharmacies. The distinction between those in the public sector who will be compensated and those who will not follows existing practice and is the same as the distinction that the previous Government used for their health and social care levy.

The noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, asked specifically about eligibility for the employment allowance. Eligibility is not determined by sector but depends on the make-up of an individual business’s work. HMRC guidance explains that this is based on whether an organisation is doing 50% or more of its work in the public sector. It is therefore down to individual organisations to determine their eligibility for any given year. The employment allowance was introduced in 2014 by the previous Government. This Government have not changed the eligibility rules on the employment allowance in any way, beyond removing the £100,000 threshold.

The revenue raised from the measures in the Bill will play a critical role in restoring economic stability and funding the NHS. As a result of measures in the Bill and the wider Budget measures, the NHS will receive over £20 billion extra over two years to deliver 40,000 extra elective appointments a week. Primary care providers—in general practice, dentistry, pharmacy and eyecare—are important independent contractors which provide nearly £20 billion-worth of NHS services. Every year, the Government consult each sector about what services it provides, and what money it is entitled to in return under its contract. As in previous years, this will be dealt with as part of that process.

The Government have announced a proposed £889 million uplift for general practice in 2025-26 and have set out the proposed areas of reform which will help us to deliver on our manifesto commitments. This is the largest uplift to GP funding since the beginning of the five-year framework and means that we are reversing the recent trend, with a rising share of total NHS resources going to general practice. We have started consulting with the General Practitioners Committee England of the British Medical Association on the 2025-26 GP contract and will consider a range of proposed policy changes. These will be announced in the usual way, following the close of the consultation later this year.

The Department of Health has entered into consultation with Community Pharmacy England regarding the 2024-25 and 2025-26 funding contractual framework. The final funding settlement will be announced in the usual way following this consultation. The NHS in England invests around £3 billion on dentistry every year. NHS pharmaceutical, ophthalmic and dental allocations for integrated care systems for 2025-26 have been published alongside NHS planning guidance.

In light of these points, I respectfully ask noble Lords not to press their amendments.

[Lord Scriven (LD)]

Again, for the clarity of the record, the Minister has just said about GPs something which completely contradicts what it says on WWW.GOV.UK. It is about whether a GP practice can claim employment allowance. It says:

“There is no entitlement to the Employment Allowance, because the majority of the work done, is wholly or mainly of a public nature”.


Since it says on GOV.UK that GPs cannot claim the employment allowance, can the Minister write to the Committee to clarify the contradictions between the website and what he has just said in his answer?

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[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I will happily write, because it is an important point and deserves clarification. Listening to what the noble Lord read out, I do not think the statements are contradictory, because the website is absolutely referring to the 50% or more point. I think it is drawing a conclusion from that, given that most of them are doing more than 50%, but I do not think they are contradictory.

[Lord Scriven (LD)]

I quote again exactly what it says, which is that

“there is no entitlement to the Employment Allowance”

for GPs. That is from “Eligibility for Employment Allowance: further employer guidance” on GOV.UK. It makes it clear that there is no entitlement to the employment allowance for GPs.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

As I said, I am more than happy to write to clarify that. What it goes on to say suggests it is consistent with that. Perhaps that first sentence is incorrect but I will write to the Committee to clarify.

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[Lord Scriven (LD)]

I understand that the noble Lord may have had other appointments on day one in Committee, but if he had been here then he would have seen that we are totally against it. We gave explanations of how extra taxes could have been done.

While I am on my feet, just to clarify for the Minister, I have looked a bit further at the website and what he said is absolutely correct. The 90% that I was referring to was a specific example of a number of people employed.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I thank the noble Lord for that point. I am of course still happy to write, so that we have absolutely clarified the point.

[Lord Jackson of Peterborough (Con)]

We have established that an epistle will be oncoming from the Minister to the noble Lord, Lord Scriven. I am glad he has clarified that. I just think—

National Insurance Contributions (Secondary Class 1 Contributions) Bill

Lord Livermore Excerpts

Committee stage
Thursday 6th February 2025 Grand Committee

Perhaps the Minister could tell us to what extent additional funds would be used to offset the rise in employers’ NICs in the FE sector. Holding the FE and HE sectors’ harness from the NIC rise is urgent. University finances are already very fragile, with a few obvious exceptions. I pointed out on the first day of Committee that nearly three-quarters of our universities will be running a deficit by the end of the year. Some 40% already have less than a month’s cash in the bank, and 10,000 jobs are expected to be lost in this academic year. Since we discussed this, only a few days ago, three Russell Group universities—Durham, Newcastle and Cardiff—have joined the long list of HEIs making job cuts and taking other cost-saving measures. The situation is perilous and needs urgent attention. The Government should be planning to safeguard and promote our world-leading university sector, not imposing more costs on it.

[The Financial Secretary to the Treasury (Lord Livermore) (Lab)]

My Lords, the Government recognise the great value of UK higher education in creating opportunity and social mobility, as an engine for growth in our economy and in supporting local communities. The Budget provided £6.1 billion of support for core research and confirmed the Government’s commitment to the lifelong learning entitlement, a major reform to student finance that will expand access to high-quality, flexible education and training for adults throughout their working lives.

The Secretary of State for Education has also confirmed that maximum fees will rise in the academic year 2025-26 for the first time since 2017, from £9,250 to £9,535 for a standard full-time undergraduate course. This was a difficult decision that demonstrates that the Government are serious about the need to put our world-leading higher education sector on a secure footing. The noble Lord, Lord Sharkey, asked for some specific figures in terms of the additional funding; I will happily write to him with those.

This amendment would, however, introduce new pressures that would have to be met by either higher borrowing, lower spending or alternative revenue-raising measures. In addition, creating new thresholds or rates based on what sector a business is in would introduce distortion and additional complexity into the tax system. Likewise, delaying commencement of this Bill would reduce the revenue generated from it and, as with the previous amendment, would therefore require either higher borrowing, lower public spending or alternative revenue-raising measures.

The Government carefully consider the impacts of all policies, of course, including the changes to employer national insurance. As I have said in previous days of this Committee, an assessment of the policy has been published by HMRC in its tax information and impact note. Further, the OBR’s economic and fiscal outlook sets out the expected macroeconomic impact of the changes to employer national insurance contributions. The Government and the OBR have therefore already set out the impacts of the policy change. This approach is in line with previous changes to national insurance and previous changes to taxation, and the Government do not intend to provide further impact assessments.

In the light of the points I have made, I respectfully ask noble Lords to withdraw or not press their amendments.

[Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon (Con)]

My Lords, before he sits down, would the Minister care to comment on the impact—indeed, the double whammy—of taxation for the independent school sector? After assessing the imposition of that, it is now going to be impacted by national insurance too. Can he also comment on the impact on the teachers in terms of pension provision?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I apologise—I did not catch the start of the noble Lord’s question. I am not quite sure what the question is.

[Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon (Con)]

The Minister did not comment on the impact on the independent schools sector, which is already reeling from the impact of the VAT that has been imposed on it and the assessments that have been made, including independent schools talking about pension provisions for teachers.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I am not sure that I would share that characterisation from the noble Lord of the VAT policy. We have published an impact assessment for both that policy and this policy. We have no intention of publishing further impact assessments.

[Lord Altrincham (Con)]

I thank noble Lords who have spoken on this group. I thank my noble friend Lady Lawlor for reminding us that education is a public good and for her little history lesson on the delicacy of our educational settlement, not just in the 19th century but going all the way back to Queen Elizabeth I and before; it was most helpful. I also thank the noble Lord, Lord Sharkey, who reminded us that, for this section of the Bill and more broadly, the consequence of these tax rises is policy-driven unemployment. We already know that jobs are going to come out. The noble Lord pointed out that 10,000 jobs may come out of higher education; with 10,000 here or there, the numbers could build up quite quickly.

It is in that context that we ask the Government to approach this area with great caution. The Minister has responded that they have looked very carefully and are aware of the issues, and they are, in their judgment, proceeding with great care. In the light of the Minister’s comments, I thank him and beg leave to withdraw.

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[Baroness Kramer (LD)]

My Lords, I am speaking here as a winding speaker. The Committee will know that, on Monday, we discussed this whole sector in great detail, and the noble Lord, Lord Leigh, has echoed the numbers and essentially the substance of that first discussion.

We on these Benches take a very different conclusion about an impact assessment with a potential delay attached and £10,000 per institution. The noble Lord, Lord Leigh, gave an example of one of his particular interests facing a £1.1 million additional charge, so I do not think that £10,000 is going to make a ha’porth of difference to it. We think that the proposals are completely inadequate. We have always said that we need the exclusion of this whole sector from the changes in the NICs levies, and on that we stand our ground.

I shall say again to the Minister, who often replies that the Government have given an extra £600 million to this sector, that the noble Lord, Lord Leigh, and I have exactly the same figures, and the cost of the NICs Bill alone for this sector, according to the Nuffield Trust, is £900 million. So we are already £300 million behind, and that £600 million was meant to fill a whole lot of other cost gaps that continue for this sector, which is so crucial to our society.

I was interested to listen to the Conservatives on this issue. I was looking it up today: migrant workers make up 32% of care workers in England. Those figures are from November 2024. As I understand the policy announcement today, I am sure that the Conservative Party thinks that these are wonderful people to be able to look after our elderly and empty the bedpans, but they will be throwing them out of the country as soon as they have finished work, because they will not be permitted to become British citizens. So to me there is some interesting contradiction in this respect for the individuals and the assessment that they are not fit to be British. The noble Lord, Lord Leigh, sees no conflict in that, but I suspect that many others will see it, and I am sure that my party does: when we tell these people that they are valued and respected, we really mean it.

Once again, we do not think that these amendments are adequate to the need, and we stand our ground on the amendments that we first moved—but then, of course, under Committee rules, withdrew—on Monday.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

My Lords, I shall address the amendment tabled by the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, and the noble Lords, Lord Altrincham and Lord Leigh of Hurley, which seek to increase the value of the employment allowance for those providing social care, and the amendment tabled by the noble Lord, Lord Leigh of Hurley, which seeks to require the laying in Parliament of an impact assessment on social care providers 12 months after commencement and every 12 months subsequently.

As a result of the measures in this Bill, combined with wider Budget measures, the Government have provided a real-terms increase in core local government spending power of 3.5% in 2025-26, including £880 million of new grant funding provided to social care. This funding can be used to address the range of pressures facing the adult social care sector. Increasing the employment allowance for specific sectors would introduce new pressures that would require either higher borrowing, lower spending or alternative revenue-raising measures. It would also add complexity to the tax system.

The Government of course carefully consider the impacts of all policies, including the changes to employer national insurance. As I have said previously, an assessment of the policy has been published by HMRC in its tax information and impact note. Further, the OBR’s economic and fiscal outlook sets out the expected macroeconomic impact of the changes to employer national insurance contributions. The Government and the OBR have therefore already set out the impacts of the policy change. This approach is in line with previous changes to national insurance and taxation, and the Government do not intend to provide further impact assessments. In light of those points, I respectfully ask noble Lords not to press their amendments.

[Baroness Neville-Rolfe (Con)]

My Lords, I thank the Minister for his response. I hope he will take away noble Lords’ concerns about the social care sector, because there seems to be agreement that we have a problem. I thank my noble friend Lord Leigh for his careful analysis and his examples of individual carers from Jewish Care, the Voluntary Organisations Disability Group and Age UK, whose work in Wales and Scotland he also mentioned.

There is a strong case for looking at this area again. The noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, may differ on how we should do it, but there is agreement on the problem. The Minister confirmed the figure that I used at Second Reading, explaining that the cost of NICs would outweigh the £800 million for social care—which we were very glad to see in the Budget. That is not a great net position.

The proposal for an annual assessment of the impact on social care is not a bureaucratic requirement, but a vital mechanism of accountability and continuous improvement. By compelling the Chancellor and the Secretary of State to publish and lay before Parliament an annual report detailing the impact of these provisions, we can ensure that there is an ongoing dialogue between policymakers and those on the front lines of care delivery.

It serves several key purposes. First, it provides transparency, which I think the House is increasingly interested in, and allows Parliament and, by extension, the public to understand how policy changes are affecting social care providers in real time. This level of openness is essential to maintaining public trust and ensuring that government policies are working as intended. Secondly, it creates a framework for evidence-based policy-making. By regularly reviewing the impact of the increased employment allowance, the Government can adjust their approach to ensure that their measures are effective. Finally, importantly, it signals to social care providers that the Government are committed to monitoring and supporting their performance through not just lip service but concrete measures. The challenges facing the social care sector are not only multifaceted but serious, and demographic changes mean that the demand for social care services is set to rise dramatically in the years ahead.

An annual impact assessment would ensure that we remain vigilant. It would provide a structured opportunity to evaluate the effectiveness of the allowance increase and other changes, to identify unintended consequences and to take corrective action if necessary. I have spoken at length but, in the circumstances, I beg leave to withdraw my amendment for today.

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[Lord Altrincham (Con)]

I thank my noble friend Lady Noakes for her amendments in this group; for her extremely well-made case as to how we might look to soften the blow for public services and the private sector; and for drawing attention to so many areas on the edge of public services that will be affected, such as dentists and childcare jobs. This is where the impact will be widely felt across the country.

On Amendments 54 and 55, the Government have stated that the purpose of this Bill is to repair the public finances. A key aspect of this plan is to ensure that public authorities can continue to operate efficiently without being overly burdened by rising employment costs. By increasing the employment allowance for public authorities to £20,000, we would reduce the financial pressure on them to provide essential services. Increasing the employment allowance specifically helps offset rising staffing costs, which are expected only to grow as the Government invest more in public services.

As the Government focus on boosting public sector capacity to meet future challenges in depopulation, the higher allowance would support that goal. It would provide greater flexibility to focus on improving service quality and enhancing delivery without worrying about escalating employment costs. The proposal aligns with the Government’s goal of unlocking economic growth. The ability to support and maintain a strong and capable public sector workforce means that these services can continue to contribute positively to the wider economy. This tax increase will inevitably drive policy-driven unemployment, which we have talked about, as already evidenced in the recent jobs numbers.

I understand that the Minister believes that the Government had no flexibility when they produced their Budget and made these tax choices. However, as the months have passed, the economic situation has changed and there has been quite a bit of wage inflation. As such, these proposals to increase the employment allowance could be cost-neutral to the amount of money raised, and should certainly not be immediately dismissed as unfunded policy decisions.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

My Lords, the amendments tabled by the noble Baronesses, Lady Neville-Rolfe and Lady Noakes, seek to expand the eligibility of the employment allowance to domestic workers and the public sector, and to increase the value of the employment allowance for organisations carrying out functions of a public nature.

As we discussed on the previous day in Committee, the employment allowance was introduced in 2014 by the previous Government. Currently, eligible small businesses with employer national insurance bills of £100,000 or less receive £5,000 of employment allowance, which means that they can deduct £5,000 from the total employer national insurance that they pay on their employees’ wages. This Bill increases that employment allowance to £10,500 from April 2025. It also seeks to expand the employment allowance to all eligible employers by removing the £100,000 eligibility threshold, which will simplify and reform employer national insurance so that all eligible employers now benefit. All of the remaining eligibility criteria remain unchanged.

As has been the case since the employment allowance was introduced in 2014, organisations operating wholly or mainly in the public sector are not eligible to claim it. As we discussed during the previous session in Committee, eligibility for the employment allowance is not determined by sector but depends on the make-up of an individual business’s work. The HMRC guidance explains that this is based on whether an organisation is doing 50% or more of its work in the public sector.

The noble Baroness, Lady Noakes, asked for some specific figures in relation to that. The number of those claiming the employment allowance varies from year to year because the amount of work done in the public sector varies from year to year. It is for individual businesses to determine the amount of work that they do in the public sector, therefore data is not collected in the way the noble Baroness asks for.

The noble Baroness also asked for specific additional assessments. As I have said many times before—she is no doubt sick of me saying so—the Government have provided the impact assessments that we intend to provide and do not intend to provide any further such assessments. I am not aware of any plans for a specific information campaign, in the way that she asks for, but I am very happy to take her suggestion back and discuss it with colleagues.

[Baroness Kramer (LD)]

I thought that the Minister was about to sit down, so I apologise if I moved too soon. I would just like to clarify something. In the situation described by the noble Baroness, Lady Noakes, where somebody employs a nanny, a carer or whatever else, I have always worked on the assumption that the employment allowance at £10,900 would, in effect, negate any employer’s national insurance on that individual. If that is not correct, it would be helpful for me to understand that. I thought that that was how the micro-business protection worked; if I have got it wrong, please let me know.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I think that I have an answer for the noble Baroness but I would like to double-check it so, if she does not mind, I will write to her to be absolutely certain on this point.

[Baroness Kramer (LD)]

Thank you.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

In conclusion, the Government have provided £4.7 billion of funding to support public sector employers with increased employer national insurance. Expanding eligibility for, or increasing the value of, the allowance would come with additional costs and would reduce the revenue generated by this Bill; this would then require either higher borrowing, lower spending or alternative revenue-raising measures. In the light of these points, I respectfully ask noble Lords to withdraw or not press their amendments.

[Baroness Noakes (Con)]

I am not going to thank the Minister for that reply because he has given us no more information and no justification for why employers who employ people for domestic or household care should not get the employment allowance. He has given no explanation as to why private sector public authorities do not get an employment allowance, other than it was put in the 2014 Act. Both these categories are significantly affected by the other contents of this Bill, so I had hoped that the Minister would respond with some rationale for why the Government think it is right that these categories of employer should not qualify for the employment allowance.

This is rather typical of the way in which the Minister has conducted the whole of this Committee. Since this is the last time we will speak in it, I would like to record that it has been more than disappointing. We normally expect Ministers to give us, or offer to provide, information. We do not normally expect Ministers simply to repeat, parrot-like, three or four set lines that are shuffled for whatever the particular amendment is, but that is what we have received. We are in Committee, so I will of course beg leave to withdraw my amendment, but I would like to record that this is no way to run a Committee.

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[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

My Lords, I will first address the amendment seeking to require the Government to review the impact of the measures in the Bill on people with protected characteristics. The Government carefully consider the impact of all decisions on those sharing protected characteristics, in line with our legal obligations and our commitment to greater fairness and opportunity. The Government are committed to meeting their obligation to the public sector equality duty, and Ministers are confident that the Government have met the obligation for the changes in this Bill.

Turning to the amendment requiring a review of the impact of the Bill on the environment and green jobs, as I have said previously, an assessment of the policy has been published by HMRC in their tax information and impact note. Further, the OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook sets out the expected macroeconomic impact of the changes to employer national insurance contributions. The Government and the OBR have therefore already set out the impacts of the policy change. This approach is in line with the previous changes to national insurance and previous changes to taxation, and the Government do not intend to provide further impact assessments. In light of these points, I respectfully ask the noble Baroness to withdraw her amendments.

[Baroness Bennett of Manor Castle (GP)]

My Lords, I have some sympathy with the comments made earlier about the quality of debate and response that we have received from the Government in this Committee. I must express agreement with those statements. I thank the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, for responding here. I point out that these amendments very much reflect her Amendment 64, which concerns the impact on economic growth, so I am not sure that the arguments about increased bureaucracy and resource cost will apply equally to her amendments.

None the less, let me pick up the points made by the Minister. He said, in referring to the effect on people with protected characteristics, that the Government are considering this carefully. I invite this Committee to consider some of the reports that have come out this week on the lack of trust—among young people in particular—in our Government and our so-called democracy. If we are to win back trust and have people feel that the Government are acting for the common good, not for a few special interests, the Government will need to show their workings. If the Government do indeed care, they need to demonstrate that they care, which is the kind of thing that this review would do.

On Amendment 69, I say again in response to the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, that the economy is a complete subset of the environment. There are no jobs on a dead planet. There is not much point in assessing economic growth if there is nothing living for it to grow in. We are in Committee so I beg leave to withdraw my amendment, but I will be back.

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[Baroness Neville-Rolfe (Con)]

My Lords, I support Amendment 70. I am delighted that my noble friend Lord Fuller has joined the Committee today and spoken with such passion and eloquence, and I support his proposal for an impact assessment of the costs involved with this Act on local authorities. It was also good to hear from my noble friend Lord Porter; as a former civil servant many years ago, I was amused by his comment about policies hanging around in a drawer. I particularly remember that when I used to go to the Council in Brussels; there were a lot of proposals that used to hang around for a long time.

I agree that the jobs tax is the wrong approach, and I agree with my noble friend Lord Jackson that there are some tricky issues in parts of local government. I have to say that I have often been an admirer of local government, particularly councils, over a long career.

This week the Government confirmed £502 million of funding to help local authorities to cover the increased costs of directly employed staff due to the changes in the national insurance contributions. Ministers have also allocated £13 million separately to mayoral combined authorities, with some allocations to follow in due course. As we have heard, local authorities will need additional support in the face of the jobs tax. I welcome the fact that Ministers have brought this support forward, but we have heard from my noble friend Lord Fuller that that the allocation is totally inadequate. He called it a £1.226 billion headache, while my noble friend Lord Jamieson, also very experienced in this area, explained that it is just not possible to absorb these sorts of costs, for example, by reducing prices to suppliers. Services will inevitably have to be cut.

I shall highlight some examples where we believe the allocations will fall short. Hampshire County Council is facing a £10 million increase in costs due to the increase in NICs but the allocation it has received from the Government is just £7 million, leaving a £3 million shortfall, which I suspect is quite typical. My noble friend Lord Jackson talked of the likely demise of the lido in Peterborough and of libraries that are closing, although I am glad to say that, so far, we have kept our libraries open in Wiltshire. We are also hearing reports from Kensington and Chelsea and Harlow councils that they are facing a shortfall following the announcement of the allocations.

Clearly the Government’s additional allocations need to cover every penny of the increased cost to local authorities, otherwise they are going to have to cut services. It would therefore be helpful if the Minister could commit to engaging with MHCLG to seek assurances about what is happening and how that could be improved.

Councils, as we have heard from my noble friend Lord Fuller, have been treated a lot worse than sectors like the police, the Civil Service and the National Health Service. This is a case in point for the argument we have been making throughout Committee where the Government have failed to produce thorough and comprehensive impact assessments. Mistakes like this can be made. The new refusal of the Treasury to provide essential information in debates like this, when such major changes are taking place, is extremely disappointing, as my noble friend Lady Noakes said, in her usually trenchant way. The Minister needs to listen to the Opposition when we call for a proper assessment of the impact of this policy on our local authorities. We want to know about other sectors too, but local authorities are this particular group’s concern and we will be returning to the charge.

The truth is that the Bill is very damaging. It will have perverse effects that will reduce the expected national insurance and tax take, as we have heard from the OBR, and it will have a negative effect on jobs, prices and growth. I hope the Minister will think further in the light of these four days of debate before Report.

I should say that I have enjoyed this Committee because of the insights it has given into many sectors and their challenges. It has been an extraordinary cross-cutting debate, and I look forward to Report on 25 February after our much-needed winter break.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

My Lords, I am grateful to all noble Lords for their contributions to this debate and for the local government expertise that has been shared with the Committee. At the Budget and the recent local government finance settlement, the Government announced £2 billion for new grant funding for local Government in 2025-26. This includes £515 million to support councils with the increase in employer national insurance contributions.

The LGA figures set out by the noble Lord, Lord Fuller, are an external estimate rather the Government’s, and I cannot comment on those figures. However, the Treasury is of course engaging closely with HMCLG, as the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, asked. The Government have committed £4.7 billion next year to provide support for departments and other public sector employers for additional employer national insurance costs. This applies to those directly employed by the public sector, including local government. However, as the noble Lord, Lord Fuller, said, independent contractors, such as those services contracted out by local authorities, will not be supported with the costs of these changes. This is exactly the same definition as with the changes to employer national insurance rates, under the previous Government’s plans for the health and social care levy.