National Insurance Contributions (Secondary Class 1 Contributions) Bill

Baroness Noakes Excerpts

Report stage
Tuesday 25th February 2025 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Neville-Rolfe (Con)]

My Lords, I will speak to my amendments in this group and to Amendment 42 in the name of my noble friend Lady Lawlor.

One of the difficulties the House has faced in dealing with this Bill has been the Government’s refusal to provide official estimates of the effects they expect the proposals to have on the individual sectors of the economy where its effects are likely to be the most profound. When we discussed their assessment in Committee, the Minister referred us to the impact note published on 13 November 2024. But I am afraid it is a very limited document, with only five pages of substantive text and no detailed assessment of the impact of the national insurance charge on a number of very important areas. Given the harm this policy will have in the many sectors we have already discussed, it is vital that the Government assess this properly. So, as a second-best measure, we have suggested additions to the Bill requiring the Government to look at the various areas of concern and make an assessment of the effect of the NICs changes—including the employment allowance, which should of course limit the damage to the very smallest businesses.

My Amendment 38 would require a sector-by-sector analysis of the impacts of the Government’s jobs tax. I am very grateful to my noble friend Lady Noakes and the noble Lord, Lord Londesborough, for supporting the amendment. It includes key areas that are adversely affected but that we have barely discussed today, notably hospitality, the creative industries and retail, whose challenges were starkly set out in Committee by my noble friend Lord Wolfson of Aspley Guise, with his unique experience of the sector.

Amendment 37 seeks to establish the Government’s view on the effect of the jobs tax on economic growth. We know that economic growth is the Chancellor’s number one policy, so I hope the Minister will be able to give the House some clarity on the Government’s expectations in this area. I also support my noble friend Lady Lawlor’s Amendment 42 and look forward to hearing from her.

We are very concerned about the Government’s failure to publish a full sector-by-sector impact assessment for this policy. I therefore intend to test the opinion of the House on my Amendment 38.

[Baroness Noakes (Con)]

My Lords, I have added my name to my noble friend’s amendment. We debated impact assessments several times in Committee and the Minister’s reply was always the same formula. It went along the lines of: “HMRC has published a tax information note”—which the rest of the Committee thought was wholly inadequate—“and the Government never do any more than this on tax legislation. The Government intend to do no more in respect of this Bill”. That was not a proper debate on impact assessments. The formula hardly changed over the four days we spent in Committee. The Minister eventually cited some precedents, but they were much smaller in scale and different in impact, and provided a precedent only really for the fact that the Treasury treats Parliament with contempt when it comes to providing full information on legislation. It is about time that Parliament stood up to the Treasury. I urge noble Lords to support my noble friend’s Amendment 38.

[Baroness Lawlor (Con)]

My Lords, I support my noble friend Lady Neville-Rolfe and will say a few words about my Amendment 42 on reviewing the impact of the Act one year on in respect of the different categories of employers in the business sector—small, medium and large.

This is needed given the worsening outlook for the UK economy and employment, which has been going from bad to worse month by month since, and in response to, the Budget. Unemployment figures are up. In the quarter ending December 2024, 1.56 million people of working age were unemployed and the UK unemployment rate was 4.4%. Unemployment levels have increased by 210,000 over the last year. Economic inactivity is also up. At the end of the last quarter of 2024, 9.29 million people aged 16 to 64 were economically inactive; the inactivity rate was 21.5%.

Jobs are being cut, as this month’s figures from S&P Global indicate. Data reveals that the decline in staffing numbers in February was the sharpest since November 2020. The chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence explained that the data revealed that

“business activity remained largely stalled for a fourth successive month, with job losses mounting amid falling sales and rising costs … One in three companies reporting lower staffing levels directly linked the reduction to policies announced in last October’s Budget”.

The number of vacancies fell in the last quarter too, although they remain slightly above pandemic levels.

We want the Government to take responsibility for their actions and face up to the costs they have imposed on growth, productivity and employment and the impact on businesses, be they small, medium or large. I echo the comments of my noble friends throughout Committee that what we had on 14 November and the figures presented at the time of the Budget were inadequate in detailing the sort of impact this country is already facing. Employees’ lives and livelihoods are at stake.

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Moved by

[Baroness Noakes]

39: After Clause 3, insert the following new Clause—
“Exemptions(1) The Treasury may by regulations specify that specified categories of person shall be exempt from the changes to secondary Class 1 contributions made by this Act.(2) The categories of person exempted by regulations may be defined by the activities which they carry out, their size, their legal status or in any other way that the Treasury considers appropriate.”

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[Baroness Noakes (Con)]

My Lords, we come to an exciting part of this Report stage, having had several debates on this Bill.

The Bill will have significant impacts on: some types of employers; some business sectors and sizes of business; some types of employees; and some types of the provision of public services by bodies which are not themselves in the public sector. More broadly, we have heard that businesses will face the double whammy of the minimum wage increases and the national insurance increases together in just a few weeks’ time, and they are likely to respond by taking actions to reduce their workforce and the hours that their workforce can work and reduce wages where they are not constrained by the national minimum wage. Prices are likely to go up, and profits are likely to go down. All this will have negative impacts on the economy. It is difficult to avoid opening a newspaper nowadays without seeing one or more campaign groups, industry representatives and charity representatives making their case for the harmful impacts of this Bill, but to date the Government have been completely deaf to all these entreaties. All this is bearing down on the economy, which is already flatlining.

I can understand why the Government do not want to make any changes to a centrepiece of their growth-destroying Budget last October. We know there is almost no room left in their fiscal rules for any changes. There are lots of downside risks to the economy, and there are precious few upsides. These are all the results of choices that the Government have made in the last seven months, so I understand why the Minister’s response to every issue presented to him in Committee, and indeed again today, was that the Government reject the cases being made.

My Amendment 39 provides for a very simple power for the Treasury to issue regulations that exempt categories of employer from the national insurance changes that this Bill introduces. There is not even a parliamentary process attached to the regulations. My amendment would therefore allow the Treasury to act quickly, once it faces up to the fact that it really has created some problems. There are no downsides to the Government accepting this amendment, as they need never use it, but it would be a useful backstop if things turn out as badly as many of us believe they will.

It is not often that the Opposition Benches offer an unrestricted power to a Government to do things, but I and others are so alarmed by the potential impacts of this Bill that I think it is the right thing for the Government to take this kind of power in the interests of the country.

We have passed some amendments today that have taken some of the roughest edges off this Bill, and I hope they will survive their passage through the Commons, but this has not made the Bill completely harm free. My sincere hope is that the Government will support this amendment, if not in its current form then in a reworded form to their own taste at Third Reading. I beg to move.

[Lord Altrincham (Con)]

My Lords, I support Amendment 39 in the name of my noble friend Lady Noakes. I thank all noble Lords for their courage and grace in staying all the way through to group 7.

Amendment 39 would give the Treasury the power to exempt sectors that would suffer significantly under the Government’s national insurance rise. The amendment introduces a degree of flexibility that Ministers can use to protect the most vulnerable of British businesses; by allowing the Treasury to introducing specific exemptions when required, we can exempt them from the additional financial burden of the national insurance increase.

I am grateful to my noble friend for bringing forward Amendment 39. It is clear that we share many of the same concerns. The amendment in her name is closely aligned with those in the name of my noble friend Lady Neville-Rolfe that seek to exempt specific sectors, such as the social care or charity sectors. So many sectors need exemption from this policy, and we hope the Government will give the arguments thoughtful consideration.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

My Lords, Amendment 39, tabled by the noble Baroness, Lady Noakes, seeks to include powers as part of this Bill to exempt certain groups in future. As I have already set out, the revenues raised from the measures in this Bill play a critical role in repairing the public finances and rebuilding our public services. Clearly, any future changes that exempt certain groups from paying national insurance would have cost implications, necessitating either higher borrowing, lower spending or alternative revenue-raising measures. I would therefore respectfully ask the noble Baroness to withdraw her amendment.

[Baroness Noakes (Con)]

My Lords, I cannot make the Government accept a power that I have generously offered to be made a part of this Bill. I hope the Government do not regret at a later stage turning down this opportunity to allow them to save face in a simple, pain-free way. As I say, I cannot force the Government to accept a perfectly sensible measure that would allow them to repair some of the damage that this Bill will inevitably do. I beg leave to withdraw the amendment.

Amendment 39 withdrawn.