Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask His Majesty's Government, further to the remarks by Lord Livermore on 3 February (HL Deb cols 488–90), what is the statistical basis for stating that Brexit had reduced the gross domestic product of the United Kingdom by four per cent.

Answered by Lord Livermore - Financial Secretary (HM Treasury)

The statement was based on independent analysis by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). In 2020 the OBR forecast that GDP will be 4% lower than it would have been had the UK not withdrawn from the EU. The OBR noted that around two-fifths of the 4% impact had already occurred by the time the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) came into force. The OBR publishes its findings as part of the Economic and Fiscal Outlook which can be found on its website.

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