Liam Byrne
Main Page: Liam Byrne (Labour - Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North)Department Debates - View all Liam Byrne's debates with the HM Treasury
(14 years, 5 months ago)
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Danny Alexander
I ask the hon. Gentleman to look at the tables on page 67 of the Red Book. I draw his attention to chart A2, which is on the
“Impact of all measures as a per cent of net income by income distribution”.
He will find that it makes it clear that the impact on the top decile is the highest as a share of income. Other charts make it clear that it is the highest in cash terms and that the impact is broadly progressive across income distribution.
Danny Alexander
I give way to the right hon. Member for Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford (Yvette Cooper), who tried to intervene first.
Danny Alexander
I agree with the hon. Gentleman. It is a bit rich coming from the Opposition, given that we have set out for the first time in any Budget its distributional impact.
Danny Alexander
I wish to respond fully to the intervention. I will come to the right hon. Gentleman in a little while.
We have taken a number of measures in the Budget, such as the earnings link with pensions, with a triple lock of earnings, prices or 2.5%, which the previous Government never managed in 13 years. That is a record of which we can already be proud. I give way to the former Chief Secretary.
Danny Alexander
As I understand it, the House of Commons analysis does not include the impact of all the measures in the Budget. VAT is paid much more in cash terms––that has been accepted by the Institute for Fiscal Studies––so it is paid more by the wealthiest. The analysis that we should rely on is that which is presented in the Budget because it shows that the distributional impact of the Budget measures hits those on highest incomes hardest. That is the relevant measure and the one that I intend to draw attention to.
Danny Alexander
Those are not my figures; those are the figures that the independent Office for Budget Responsibility produced. By the way, the figures that the previous Government put forward contained hopelessly over-optimistic forecasts for economic growth. In this Budget, we are taking measures to reduce corporation tax, to reduce the small companies rate of corporation tax and to tackle the Labour jobs tax on national insurance, all of which will help to support business development. Those measures, which I shall come on to if I get the chance during my speech, will all help to stimulate economic growth in the private sector, and that is the best way to lead this country out of the economic mess that we are in.
Danny Alexander
I am not sure that the right hon. Gentleman can do anything to help me, given that he left the note saying that there was no money left, and that his decisions led the country to that position. I hope that in response to this debate he chooses to apologise for the mess in which his Government left the country.
Mr Liam Byrne (Birmingham, Hodge Hill) (Lab)
May I begin by putting on record the Opposition’s thanks to Sir Alan Budd for his excellent work in the short months that he has served the Government? May I also congratulate the Chief Secretary, who is rapidly becoming one of the Chancellor’s longest-serving advisers? After his performance this afternoon, I think we can see why that is. He is pursuing what is now a noble Liberal Democrat tradition of fronting up some of the Government’s nastiest and most regressive policies in the House. His speech was a Liberal Democrat defence of an emergency Budget—an emergency so great that the Chancellor could not be bothered to join us this afternoon to listen to the House’s deliberations.
It is fair to say that since we met last week to debate the Budget, the economic horizon has darkened. British families and businesses fought so hard in the past year and a half for this country’s recovery, but the Bill puts all that at risk. We can see from the Bill that the Chancellor would like us to believe that size is not everything—although it is very thin, it is none the less very dangerous.
We all enjoyed the Chief Secretary’s summary of business opinion, but Opposition Members thought it odd that he missed some of the news that has appeared since the Chancellor gave his Budget speech. The truth is that, as we warned last week, the dangers in the global economy have become not less visible—they have not ebbed away—but, if anything, become more visible and more dangerous. This week, for example, the news from our trading partners and from the United States, which is our single biggest export market, has not been good. Factory orders in May dropped after eight consecutive months of improvement, and confidence surveys last week showed the biggest falls for some time—far bigger than expected.
Last week, we heard that the number of Americans in work has fallen by almost the largest number since 1995, and new figures for the eurozone show unemployment stuck at more than 10%. The news from new markets is likewise not great. China’s stock exchange hit a 15-month low yesterday, and confidence surveys have reported the worst outlook for a year and a half. Therefore, we cannot blame British businesses, investors and exporters for being somewhat depressed. They know that the odds of success in the gamble on which the Chancellor has embarked are slim, and they know very clearly who will pay the price for his failure.
Mr John Redwood (Wokingham) (Con)
The previous Labour Government said that they would halve the deficit in four years. What spending cuts and tax increases would they have introduced if they do not like ours?
Mr Byrne
The right hon. Gentleman has today put out a number of very constructive suggestions—for example, urging people hit by budget cuts to wear more clothes, to turn down the thermostat and to eat more vegetables—[Hon. Members: “Withdraw!”] I am merely quoting the Daily Mail, which is a source I trust—it is, of course, beyond reproach.
Mr Deputy Speaker
Order. Obviously the right hon. Member for Birmingham, Hodge Hill (Mr Byrne) used the Daily Mail. I am sure that it was not meant with intent, and that we can be a little more careful in the way that we proceed.
Mr Redwood
The Daily Mail withdrew the article from its website because it was untrue.
Mr Deputy Speaker
Order. The right hon. Gentleman should withdraw that comment if it has been withdrawn from the website.
Mr Byrne
I am happy to withdraw comments published in the Daily Mail.
The point that I was about to make was that the business community, having had a chance to reflect on the Budget, has come to some conclusions, and I was surprised not to hear about them in the Chief Secretary’s remarks. A fortnight ago, the Chancellor told us that the Budget was
“a balanced package that will send the signal that Britain is open for business.”—[Official Report, 22 June 2010; Vol. 512, c. 176.]
In the weeks since, it is fair to say that business has not been hanging out the bunting. The stock market has now recorded its worst quarterly fall for eight years, as it fell to its lowest point for 10 months. Goldman Sachs has warned that tighter fiscal policy now
“would make it hard to deliver improving growth for all, or possibly any”
country. The chief economist of the British Chambers of Commerce has said that the scale and severity of the Budget
“inevitably increases the danger of an economic setback”.
The Chartered Institute for Purchasing and Supply has said that its managers have
“voiced grave concerns that budget cuts and VAT will tip the scales and amplify the likelihood of the UK slipping back into recession”.
The confidence of Britain’s finance directors has fallen to a 12-month low—just one in four is optimistic, and two thirds say that tighter fiscal policy will hurt their business. Yesterday, the confidence of Britain’s supply chain had its largest monthly fall since 1997. It is for those reasons that a wise man once said that
“the next government has to recognise the fragility of the economy and not take action which would precipitate a double dip recession leading to more unemployment and even bigger budget deficits.”
That was, of course, the Business Secretary in April—once a prophet and now a lost cause.
Mr Kevan Jones
Does my right hon. Friend agree that one of the important sectors in the economy is the service sector? Has he seen the Markit/CIPS purchasing manager index this month, which has recorded its largest drop in confidence in the last 14 years?
Barry Gardiner
Will my right hon. Friend confirm that the real point is that if we should slip back into a double-dip recession, the coalition’s efforts will be null and void, because they will not have been able to address the deficit as a proportion of GDP?
Mr Byrne
That is precisely right and I will have more to say on that in a moment.
I promised a ray of good news among all the bad news and depressed expectations from the business community. A command paper was sneaked out last week. It had barely a press notice—it ran to a grand total of six lines—and there was no written ministerial statement with it. What could justify such secrecy? All is revealed on page 52 of the public expenditure survey, published last week, wherein we discover that Departments under Labour’s management underspent their budgets last year by £5 billion. Anyone would think that the Government wanted to keep that news secret. In a knee-jerk response yesterday, they decided to cover it up by announcing another £1.5 billion of spending cuts instead.
Derek Twigg
In Halton, £168 million of the Building Schools for the Future project was cut yesterday. The Mersey gateway has been postponed, and if it is cut it will take the total loss of investment—in that one area—to £0.5 billion. In an area like Merseyside and Cheshire, which especially needs that investment, that will be a massive blow to the construction industry. Does not it also underline the fact that public expenditure provides private sector jobs?
Mr Byrne
One of the great flaws in the Budget is that the Government are relying on a bounce-back in private investment, for which there is barely a precedent, and nor is there any evidence from the business community that it might happen.
Make no bones about it, since the Chancellor sat down a fortnight ago, the gloom has grown. However, the Finance Bill does not adjust the Government’s strategy. All we have heard from the Chief Secretary this afternoon is a very clear economic credo: where there is worry, let us spread fear, and where there is risk, let us bring danger. Whereas the Labour Government planned to halve the deficit in four years—a plan that the Chancellor’s own independent advisers said we were on track to deliver, and which the G20 said met its timetable—this Chancellor has added nearly £40 billion in new tax rises and spending cuts. He has locked us on a course to slash away come what may, and, in a world full of risk, he is now preaching to others to do the same.
Mr Jim Cunningham (Coventry South) (Lab)
Do the recent figures for the motor car industry not show that the previous Government were on the right course for an economic recovery, and does my right hon. Friend not agree that a £360 million cut in Coventry’s schools programme will have a devastating effect on the schools and construction trade there? I am sure he knows that the construction trade always leads economic recovery.
Mr Byrne
My hon. Friend is right. One reason the British supply chain is now so worried about the Government’s intentions is that it has seen these knee-jerk reactions, such as yesterday’s decision, of which the Chief Secretary was so proud he did not dare come to the House to say a word about it.
I want to make a point that follows on from what my hon. Friends have said. Rather than balancing spending over the economic cycle, we now have, in the Budget, a plan to eliminate in just five years the structural deficit. However, the Finance Bill ignores the question of what happens if growth is weaker than expected. It is worth for a moment the House exploring the economic consequences of this Chancellor’s proposals. If growth fails, the structural deficit as a percentage of our economy goes up, yet the timetable for its elimination remains unchanged, so the Chancellor’s only course of action is to cut deeper and deeper. If growth falters or the economy shrinks, the Chancellor cannot stimulate the economy, but can only respond with cuts. It is not a plan to manage the economic cycle; it is a plan for an economic death spiral. Like some kind of self-flagellating penitent who believes borrowing is so morally wrong, he responds to any new urges with another bout of whipping. He might feel it gets him to heaven a little faster, but I am afraid it is no way to run an economy.
Charlie Elphicke
I enjoy the right hon. Gentleman’s thirst for talking down the economy, but how many independent economic forecasters are predicting the double-dip recession that the Labour party seems to constantly hope and pray for?
Mr Byrne
I note that the hon. Gentleman was so eager to participate in this debate that he missed the beginning of it. The words I used were not my words, but the words from a wide section of the British business community. [Hon. Members: “Who?”] Well, Goldman Sachs, the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply, and the judgment of the stock market. This is not a perspective held by a narrow corner of the business community. The judgment on this Budget is widely shared across this country.
Ben Gummer
Will the right hon. Gentleman confirm whether it was Goldman Sachs or the chief economist at Goldman Sachs who made those comments? It is an important distinction.
Mr Byrne
Absolutely. Jim O’Neill is a very respected economist, he is chief economist at Goldman Sachs, and his opinion was echoed by the chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce. So this is not a narrow perspective from any one particular corner of the business community. This view is widely shared.
Phil Wilson (Sedgefield) (Lab)
We have to accept that the Prime Minister has kept one promise. He said that the cuts would affect the north-east of England the most, and that has been proved to be true. The Government have cancelled a new hospital, abolished One NorthEast and stopped nearly 100 Building Schools for the Future projects, which would have created many construction jobs in the private sector. Is it not a shame that the Prime Minister did not keep the other promise, which was that cuts would not affect the front line?
Mr Byrne
My hon. Friend is absolutely right. Like so many words that we heard during the election from those now in government, those ones turned out to be rather empty.
Perhaps we would not be quite so worried about what we have heard from the Chief Secretary this afternoon if we did not know that the risk of failure for this Budget was so great. The Office for Budget Responsibility, which is supposed to know, has said that there is just a 40% chance of the Chancellor hitting his growth forecast for next year, yet the VAT increase in the Bill will tax consumption so hard that we will be forced to rely on a history-making burst of exports and business investment. Last week we heard that just once since 1966 have we had the kind of rise in investment and exports on which the Chancellor will be banking in each of the next three years. The House would therefore be right to ask what measures exist in the Finance Bill to help. On close inspection, there appears to be no help at all for exporters, yet the Chancellor needs Britain’s exporters to grow their trade abroad by £100 billion for his plan to come true. That is the equivalent of our trade with America rising threefold, our trade with China rising by 20 times or our trade with India rising by 40 times. It is fair to say that that is not a bet that any of us would take.
Kevin Brennan (Cardiff West) (Lab)
Was my right hon. Friend surprised when he saw the Deputy Prime Minister in Germany—he is obviously fluent in German, but not in economics—persuading the Germans to cut their expenditure, when Germany is exactly the sort of market that we rely on for export growth?
Mr Byrne
Precisely. We need the German Government to contribute to growth right across the European area. One would have thought that the Deputy Prime Minister might have a word to say about encouraging the German Government to do more to help British exporters, but there we are—not a word about that from him.
Stewart Hosie
Although the right hon. Gentleman’s excoriating attack on the coalition Government is pretty accurate so far, will he confirm that we had a balance of trade deficit in goods last year of some £82 billion, that Labour lost 1 million manufacturing jobs before the recession and that the impact on GDP growth was to suppress it every year since 2000? Just for the sake of accuracy, will he confirm that those figures are right?
Mr Byrne
I have not brought those figures with me to the Chamber, but the hon. Gentleman will know that exports from this country have grown strongly over past years. That is precisely why, as we came through the crash, we said that we needed to rebalance our economy, which is why we fought so hard for investment in companies such as Sheffield Forgemasters and why we said that we needed new investment in manufacturing—all investment that has now been cut back.
Mr Byrne
No, I am going to make another important point, on which the hon. Gentleman might want to comment. The question of business investment is vital—it relates to the argument at the heart of the Budget—and I hope that we will have a good debate on it this afternoon. Business investment is the subject of clause 1, which offers, I am afraid to say, no salvation through investment allowances, which drive up investment and which manufacturers say make the world of difference. This is what the senior economist of the Engineering Employers Federation had to say about investment allowances:
“For smaller companies…there will be cashflow consequences …that will hurt their ability to reinvest in their own competitiveness.”
That is because the Government have withdrawn such allowances.
What, then, of corporation tax? We were promised in the Budget a four-year plan to bring down the rate of corporation tax to 24%, but clause 1 offers us just a one-year plan. We do not know whether that is a wheeze to avoid an unhelpful valuation of deferred tax assets—the Chief Secretary to the Treasury was silent on that point—but is it not more likely that the Treasury is simply hedging its bets? The Government promised us certainty on corporation tax, and all we have got is more risk. The truth is that business is not going to bet on a one-year deal when this country’s recovery demands a longer-term planning horizon. The Chancellor might be a gambler, but Britain’s business community is not.
Stephen Hammond (Wimbledon) (Con)
The business community are not gamblers. In this Budget, they will see encouragement for the bedrock of our economy—namely, small and medium-sized enterprises. Measures in the Budget such as the small profits rate of taxation will help 800,000 small businesses across London and the south-east, and the small business rate relief will help 48% of the businesses in the region. Is that not the kind of investment that will encourage exports?
Mr Byrne
It would be, but it appears to be absent from the Bill.
The economic gamble that the Chancellor has taken in the Budget is quite clear to the business community and, I think, to the House. There is also the question of who pays. The Chancellor is fond of taking the approach that we are all in this together. One writer called that the equivalent of a chorus line from “High School Musical”. However, the Finance Bill disabuses us of any notion that that claim might actually be true. It is now quite clear that the price of this Budget will be paid by people’s jobs, and that the greatest price will be paid by the poorest in this country.
Mr MacNeil
For the past five years, the poorest in my constituency were paying the highest level of tax per litre of fuel in the UK. Is the shadow Chief Secretary in any way embarrassed or ashamed that a Labour Government let that happen? Or does he now repent and support a rural fuel derogation?
Mr Byrne
I look forward to hearing the hon. Gentleman’s contribution to the debate a little later. It was not quite clear whether he was talking about marginal deduction rates or other impacts of the tax system but, like me, he will have noticed table A3 on page 69 of the Red Book, which shows that the marginal deduction rates for people on a 90% deduction rate, for example, have not gone down as a consequence of the Budget; they have gone up.
Stephen Hammond
We know from the note that the right hon. Gentleman left for the Chief Secretary that it clearly would not have been he who paid. Will he tell the House exactly where the £50 billion of cuts would have come from under a Labour Government, and how the deficit would have been reduced? Who would have paid in those circumstances?
Simon Hughes (Bermondsey and Old Southwark) (LD)
Does the right hon. Gentleman accept that his attacks might just begin to be credible if Labour’s record were not so dreadful? Inequality increased, the link between earnings and pensions was never delivered, child poverty was not reduced over the whole period of the Labour Government, fuel poverty increased and poor people on low incomes were not taken out of tax. Where is the credibility in that? This Budget will clearly deliver a fairer outcome than the one that his Government left us with.
Mr Byrne
I was empathising with the hon. Gentleman until his final sentence. As he will know, over the past 10 to 15 years up to 2006, just four countries out of the entire 20 or 30 members of the OECD succeeded in reversing inequality. They were Turkey, Ireland, Mexico and the United Kingdom. The attack on inequality was always a central mission for the Labour Government. Yes, of course we wanted to go further, but we were proud of our record of lifting 900,000 pensioners and 500,000 children out of poverty, of legislating to restore the earnings link and of introducing innovations such as tax credits. In constituencies like mine—and, I suggest, the hon. Gentleman’s—which suffer from a high rate of unemployment, that help is beginning to make a difference. That is why we are so passionate in our objection to the attack on the poorest people in this country contained in this Budget.
Simon Hughes
I respect the right hon. Gentleman for his constituency commitment to dealing with the poor. Over the period of the Labour Government—during which not everything was done wrongly—the greatest failure of all was that inequality was not reduced over the entire 13 years; in fact, it increased. The rich became richer, the very rich became very much richer, and the people at the bottom—pensioners in particular—did not have the protection from a Labour Government that history suggests they could have expected.
Mr Byrne
I look forward to the hon. Gentleman telling us later how the increase in VAT is going to support the argument that he is trying to prosecute. I hope that he will also reflect on the cost of this Budget to jobs. The official figures for job cuts as a result of this Budget are bad enough, but the real figures are even worse. We have already watched the extraordinary spectacle of the Office for Budget Responsibility tell the Chancellor that employment will be 100,000 lower as a result of Budget measures, but then the real figures were published in The Guardian—not in this House, but in The Guardian—from which we learned that secret Treasury papers say that the Budget will cost 1.3 million jobs over the next five years. When the Chancellor stood at that Dispatch Box a couple of weeks ago, he told us that he would not hide things in the “small print” and that he would give it to us “straight”; he was so straight and so open that he kept the Treasury advice out of the Budget altogether. Yet even that picture might not reflect the entirety of the Budget’s impact.
Toby Perkins (Chesterfield) (Lab)
Does my right hon. Friend agree that the Liberal Democrats’ comments would have more credibility if they had not spent the six or eight weeks before the general election arguing very accurately and articulately against the very Budget they have just helped to deliver?
Mr Byrne
My hon. Friend is absolutely right. Some Front-Bench Labour Members believe in redemption, and we have not given up on the hon. Member for Bermondsey and Old Southwark (Simon Hughes). That is why we are looking forward so much to hearing his contribution later this evening. [Interruption.] I hope he is not going to dispel the image I have of his virtue and integrity.
Simon Hughes
May I say to the right hon. Gentleman and the hon. Member for Chesterfield (Toby Perkins) that the four major proposals on tax, finance and equality with which we went into the election have been delivered in the Budget? The only one that was not delivered was value added tax. The right hon. Gentleman knows that there is concern about its increase, but he has heard me say that I believe that, in the event, rather than making further spending cuts, it was the least worst option.
Mr Byrne
I will cling on to my image of the hon. Gentleman’s integrity and await his contribution a little later. I remain convinced that, for him, redemption is still possible.
I was about to say in response to my hon. Friend the Member for Chesterfield (Toby Perkins) that the reality is that the impact on jobs might be even worse than we saw in the Red Book, or even worse than we read about in The Guardian, because the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development tells us that it forecasts that unemployment could continue to rise up towards 3 million.
This Finance Bill hits growth so hard—this is a point that I hope the hon. Member for Bermondsey and Old Southwark in particular will reflect on—that, buried in the back of the Red Book, we learn that the Chancellor has had to raise £9 billion of extra taxes to pay for the lost growth. That is not cutting public debt, but adding to it—in pounds and pence and in the unquantifiable misery of wasted human lives. It is, I am afraid, a philosophy that is all too familiar. It is a distant echo of 1992, when a Tory Chancellor told us that unemployment was “a price worth paying”. Back in 1989, another Tory Chancellor, the now noble Lord Major—
Charlie Elphicke
Perhaps I am just confused, but I am looking at the OBR table C.2 and it seems that ILO unemployment and the claimant count will be falling over the course of this Parliament. Will the right hon. Gentleman confirm if I have misread the table?
Mr Kevan Jones
Does my right hon. Friend agree that the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development not only made predictions on unemployment, but also said that the Government’s targets for job creation were not achievable? Its chief economist, John Philpott said:
“There is not a hope in hell’s chance of this happening.”
Mr Byrne
My hon. Friend is absolutely right. Very few people in the country believe the Budget’s forecasts for employment growth, which is not surprising given how hard the Budget is hitting growth.
I want to move on from the economics of the Bill, and the possibility that it may work, to a wider question that I know we will want to debate this afternoon.
Danny Alexander
The right hon. Gentleman began, quite rightly, by paying tribute to the Office for Budget Responsibility and the work that it has done. Does he accept that the OBR forecasts make it clear that over the period of the Budget, growth will rise and unemployment will fall? That confirms—if we are trading quotes—the view of the secretary-general of the OECD, who has said that the Budget
“provides the necessary degree of fiscal consolidation over the coming years to restore public finances to a sustainable path, while… supporting the recovery.”
That is what the Budget does, and the right hon. Gentleman should be welcoming it.
Mr Byrne
I ask the Chief Secretary to be patient for a moment. The last year in which exports grew as a percentage of our economy in anything like the way that the OBR projects for the next few years was 1974. The Chief Secretary is relying on a unique combination of the business investment that we saw in 2005 and the exports that we saw in 1974. He is assuming that they will come together in perfect harmony in each of the next three years. I must say to the Chief Secretary, very gently, that that is a bit of a gamble for him to take.
Danny Alexander
Does the right hon. Gentleman accept that it is the independent Office for Budget Responsibility—which I think he welcomes—that forecasts that growth will rise over the current Parliament and that unemployment will fall? Does he accept that, yes or no?
Mr Byrne
It is not a great triumph for unemployment to fall as an economy returns to growth. The point that I was making is that employment in this country is lower as a result of the Chief Secretary’s Budget, that growth is lower as a result of his Budget, and that the Budget hits the economy so hard that he must raise another £9 billion of taxes, although the Chancellor refused to admit it at the Dispatch Box.
I now wish to turn to a question to which I hope we will devote quite some time today: the wider question of why this Finance Bill is so unfair. We now have the judgment of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, which tells us that the Budget is so regressive that its only redeeming features are Labour policies. Age Concern tells us—clearly, starkly, urgently—that it will put older people’s lives at risk. The Child Poverty Action Group tells us that it will drive poorer parents into the arms of loan sharks. The House of Commons Library tells us that nearly three quarters of the £8 billion tax and benefits bill will be paid by our country’s women—and that is before we get to VAT.
Clause 3 is the clause that deals with VAT, and I think it fair to say that it is the clause without a mandate. I have come to learn that, after nearly 30 years in the House, the hon. Member for Bermondsey and Old Southwark did not get where he is today without knowing what makes his party tick. I believe that when he said, a week before the Budget,
“I hope we don’t have a VAT increase because it is the most regressive form of tax”,
he spoke for the majority of his party’s voters and his party’s members. Before too long, those words will come back to haunt the Chief Secretary and the rest of the occupants of the Treasury Bench.
Back on 7 April, the Deputy Prime Minister warned us about hikes in VAT. He said:
“let’s remember, it is a regressive tax”.
He was right: it is a regressive tax, and we now know that he is a regressive politician for supporting it.
I think that it is fair to say—I feel that I can say this among friends—that I know a thing or two about writing something and regretting it later, but the Liberal Democrats did not just write a silly note. They unveiled a whacking great poster on a lorry saying, “Tory VAT bombshell”. Little did we know that they would be the ones not only to prime it, but to set it off.
Mr Byrne
I will in a moment.
If Members go to the Deputy Prime Minister’s website—for those who do not have the address, let me be helpful, it is nickclegg.co.uk; it is not a site that I visit quite as much as I used to—they will see that that famous poster saying, “Tory VAT bombshell” is still on the website, available to download. The Liberal Democrats cannot kick the habit of saying one thing and doing another.
Mrs Anne McGuire (Stirling) (Lab)
Does my right hon. Friend share the astonishment of the 87% of the electorate in the Chief Secretary’s constituency who did not vote Tory at the last election but see him fronting up a VAT rise to 20%?
Mr Redwood
Can the right hon. Gentleman explain why putting VAT up by 2.5% before the recession was scarcely over, as the Labour party did in government, was a good idea and did not destabilise the recovery, but putting it up another 2.5% to pay all the previous Government’s bills, which Labour still will not tell us how it would pay for, is a bad idea?
Mr Byrne
Let me come to that point in a moment because—[Interruption.] I will answer the right hon. Gentleman’s question after touching for a moment on some of the questions that we will raise in this debate and in Committee next week. We will want to press the Government on their clause without a mandate. We will want to know what studies have been conducted, as will many Back-Bench Members in the coalition party, on the impact of the new VAT on Britain’s poorest families. We will want to know the impact on pensioners, children and child poverty. We will want to know whether all zero-rated goods will remain zero-rated for the course of the Parliament. We will want to know whether all exempt goods and services will remain exempt for the course of the Parliament. We will want to know how much the Chancellor has short-changed our pensioners by uprating pensions this September and then legislating for higher prices in January. We will want to know his estimate of the growth in black market trading by increasing the rewards for unregistered traders. We will press the Government on those questions during discussion of clause 3.
We will also want to know the answers to questions on other clauses. Why does clause 1 make corporation tax less certain when we were promised clarity? Why is the measure silent on the regime for North sea oil? Why does clause 2 complicate the tax system when we were promised simplicity? In respect of clause 4, what assessment has been made of the impact of insurance costs for low-income families? Will the reform of pension tax relief bring in as much as Labour budgeted for? Will the plan be as fair?
The great tragedy of the Budget and the Bill is that there is an alternative, so let me deal directly with some of the questions raised by Government Members. In March, my right hon. Friend the shadow Chancellor set out the fastest and clearest deficit reduction plan of any country in the G7.
Mr Byrne
I hear what the hon. Lady says, but she has of course read chapter 6 of the Budget of March 2010 and, like me, she will remember that there was £3.5 million in savings by holding down public sector pay; there was £1 billion in savings through the reform of public sector pensions; there was £5 billion in savings through cuts to lower-priority programmes; and there was £11 billion in savings by revolutionising Whitehall. There was also the promise of a benefits bill that would have been £14 billion lower through falling unemployment, which was only possible as a consequence of growth. She will also remember the precision with which we set out £19 billion-worth of tax increases, which unlike this Bill, did not hit the poorest in her constituency or mine.
We know that Governments have to govern, so our opposition to the Bill will be careful, but Labour Members will stand up for jobs and for fairness. That is why we will vote against the Second Reading of the Bill.
Andrew George
I am going to draw my remarks to a close, so I will take no further interventions. My proposal was purely for VAT impact assessments, and through questions to Ministers, I am seeking further information on the impact of the VAT increase.
Mr Byrne
I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman for giving way—the House has been following his remarks with some care. Before the Liberal Democrats gave their consent to the proposals in the Budget, they will have discussed the matter. In the interests of the debate that he is trying to stimulate, was it ever explained in those discussions that an extra £9 billion of tax must be raised by the Budget because its overall effect is to slow the recovery to such a serious extent?
Andrew George
If the right hon. Gentleman does not mind, I will move on. That is part of the debate that he will no doubt continue with Treasury Ministers. If Labour Members wish to avoid a VAT increase such as that proposed in the Bill, they need to propose alternatives. Those might include a further increase in the banking levy or an increase in capital gains tax, or perhaps VAT increases could apply to luxury goods but not to others, but alternative measures to fill the £13 billion hole in the public sector accounts would be needed.
I hope that future stages of the Bill will provide a more constructive environment in which to debate VAT and other matters.
Clive Efford
We have seen so many unexpected changes from the parties opposite, and my right hon. Friend is absolutely right to draw our attention to the fact that they have been silent on that issue.
I have another question about the Bill. Where does it mention the tax on the banks? When can we expect to see that measure before us? Why is it not part of the Bill? Perhaps the Liberal Democrats would like to intervene on me to tell me when we can expect to see it. We are told that it will be consulted on. If that is the case, is it going to go up or down, or is it going to stay as it is? What is the point of consulting the bankers—I assume that that is whom the Government are going to consult—on something that they would rather did not happen?
The Liberal Democrats told us that they were going to break up the casino banking system. The Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills wanted the banks to be broken down into smaller banks, separating casino banking from normal banking. Yet we are told that the Chancellor opposes this and has set up a commission to look into it, which will take at least a year, thereby kicking it into the long grass. [Interruption.] I hear a sedentary intervention that we are dealing with the Finance Bill. Yes we are, and this is not in the Finance Bill, but it is an integral part of the Budget. It is therefore legitimate to ask where it is, when it is going to happen and what the consultation will be about, because it impacts on what taxes we raise on the people we represent. [Interruption.] I say to the hon. Member for St Ives (Andrew George), who did not make a very good job of defending his position on the increase, that that includes VAT.
On 12 March the Deputy Prime Minister called for a 10% tax on bank profits and a £2 billion job creation scheme to rescue the victims of recession. We keep being told by the Liberal Democrats that they have had an enormous impact on this Budget, so perhaps they could explain the impact they made here. I would have supported and voted for a 10% tax on bankers’ profits, instead of for taking people’s benefits away from them or for poor families paying VAT increases. After all, where did the financial problems start?
The Deputy Prime Minister kept digging during the general election, and on 20 April accused the bankers of behaving like “Arthur Scargill in pinstripes”. He then went on to say:
“The banks have basically been given untrammelled support by Labour and Conservative governments to do exactly what they like, and take massive risks with our livelihoods and our savings. They have been holding a gun to the economy. A progressive liberal like myself is not going to be squeamish about blowing the whistle on a vested interest.”
Well, where is it? Where is the whistleblowing on those vested interests?
The Liberal Democrat website—I do not know whether Liberal Democrat Members ever look at it—still says that they are going to bring “fundamental change” to our banking system.
“We will break them up and break them down.”
It continues:
“Until such a time, the taxpayer will have to continue underwriting the banks”—
well, we know that from this Budget.
“To recognise this, we are proposing a new levy on bank profits at a rate of 10%...This levy would be supplementary to corporation tax”.
Well, where did that happen? If we look at corporation tax outcomes—[Interruption.] The hon. Member for Cheadle (Mark Hunter) intervenes from a sedentary position. Would he like to repeat what he just said? I think he said that the Lib Dems did not win. Well, we all know that; that is why we are complaining about what they are doing.
If I look at what the banks are saying about corporation tax, I find that they are rewarded and compensated for the £2 billion levy that the Budget wants to raise. We have some more juicy quotes here; the Lib Dems might want to listen to them. Here is one:
“Bankers were relieved that the chancellor’s speech failed to repeat the coalition government’s threat to end ‘unacceptable bonuses’”.
Deutsche Bank analysts noted the significance of the corporation tax change:
“Taking 2% off the 2012 tax rate for the five banks listed in the UK would increase profit by £1.16bn, that is it should almost offset all of the banks’ tax. Overall a good outcome for the banks.”
A number of bank analysts calculated that some banks could benefit from the Chancellor’s measures. As I have said, Deutsche Bank concluded that it was a “good outcome” for banks, while an analyst at UBS expected Lloyds and HSBC to benefit by 2012 because the cut in their corporation tax bill was larger than the hit that they sustained through the bank levy. HSBC banking analysts concurred:
“We’d expect most domestically-orientated banks, for example Lloyds, to be better off after four years than they were pre-budget”.
How has it come about that a party that went through the general election giving all those quotes about how they were going to break the banks up and break them down, and make the bankers pay until the pips squeaked, has come to support a Budget that takes from the bankers with one hand, pays it back with the other and rewards the banks with a tax benefit at the end of it? And at the same time they will be marching through the Lobbies to the drumbeats of the Tories, voting for cuts in benefits and an increase in VAT, and making the poorest people in our communities pay, when the banks are not paying.
It was all puff and wind from the Liberal Democrats during the election. We have heard it all before, and we are hearing it again. This time, however, they have actually got to vote for something. They are actually in charge and responsible for what they are voting for, and they are going to pay a very heavy price indeed.
The Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury (Mr Patrick McLoughlin)
claimed to move the closure (Standing Order No. 36), but the Deputy Speaker withheld his assent and declined to put that Question
Mr Byrne
On a point of order, Mr Deputy Speaker. May I ask for your guidance under Standing Order No. 15(1)(a), which says that the proceedings on any stage of a
“bill brought in upon a ways and means resolution”
including the Finance Bill, are exempt from interruption and may be proceeded with until “any hour though opposed”.