Finance Bill
Graham Stuart Excerpts(12 years, 4 months ago)
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Catherine McKinnell
Our position is that we would like none of the VAT changes to be introduced so by voting against new schedule 1 today, as I have already explained, we vote against all the VAT changes.
As was pointed out, if the pasty counter was near the oven, the ambient temperature would be higher. If it was near the chiller, the ambient temperature may be lower. Greggs’ official consultation document asked whether servers would ultimately have to take the temperature of both the pasty and the surrounding air to determine whether a 20% surcharge should be applied. The proposal was universally and rightly rounded on as ridiculous. Ken McMeikan, the chief executive of Greggs the bakers, which I am proud to say is based in my part of the world, Tyne and Wear, deserves a mention for his excellent campaign against the pasty tax. A massive £30 million was wiped off the value of the company in the week after the Budget as orders were threatened and jobs put at risk. Along with several hundred other bakers, Mr McMeikan delivered a petition to 10 Downing street. He told Ministers:
“we are the voice of half a million people. We embody their resentment at what this Government is trying to impose against the people’s will. . . ordinary hard working people simply do not want this pasty tax.”
I visited a local school breakfast club with Mr McMeikan and I know just how committed Greggs is to local schools and community projects. It did not deserve to have its business torpedoed by Ministers who are too out of touch ever to have eaten one of its products. Eventually the Government backed down on the pasty tax—they had to because that was the only move they could make—but they left behind them a legacy of arrogant disregard for ordinary people that will not quickly be forgotten. My only hope now is that the U-turn that has been made will be made properly. Representatives of Greggs are still raising concerns that the new wording of the regulations on hot food now state that VAT should be charged if it
“is provided…in packaging that retains heat (whether or not the packaging was primarily designed for that purpose)”.
The hon. Member for St Austell and Newquay (Stephen Gilbert) raised the matter with the Minister, but his answer did not provide certainty, so I would be grateful if he would clarify in his reply exactly how the Government will ensure certainty for this slightly battered production market.
Any sort of paper bag or wrapping could inadvertently help to retain heat, so there is a danger that pasties could still be caught in the regulations and that this whole incompetent mess of U-turns and retractions will all have been for nothing. I hope that the Government will take the opportunity to clarify that point and reassure Greggs and other bakers up and down the country that supplying customers with paper napkins, for example, which could inadvertently slow down the cooling process, will not result in an extra 20% charge for their customers.
Greggs would like confirmation, as I am sure would other bakers across the country, on whether taking trays of baked products from the oven and stacking them in counters that have no other means of heating or heat retention would be considered to be slowing down the cooling process. The practice is used by bakers to minimise food handling and the number of trays in use, but there are genuine concerns in the industry that it could constitute slowing down the cooling process and so incur a VAT charge.
The Government’s second U-turn was on their attempt to charge 20% VAT on static caravans—[Interruption.] I am asked from a sedentary position “Are you only on the second U-turn?” Yes, I am. I venture to guess that caravan holidays, like pasties, are not familiar to most members of the Cabinet. They saw an opportunity to take some extra tax and went ahead without considering the impact on individuals, jobs, growth or tourism. Because of the huge campaign mounted against the policy—I pay tribute to Members on both sides of the House for that, particularly hon. Members who represent the Hull constituencies, who are particularly concerned about the impact on jobs in their area—the Government backed down, but they are still trying to impose the 5% charge, as the Minister set out in more detail earlier.
The Treasury’s own figures show that 20% VAT on static caravans would result in a 30% fall in demand. The industry estimates that it would result in 1,000 job losses in manufacturing, excluding the supply chain. We know that at least one factory in the supply chain, Willerby Holiday Homes, put all 700 of its staff on a 90-day consultation as a direct result of the Government’s announcement that it would levy 20% VAT on its product. The National Caravan Council states that 4,300 jobs might be lost in holiday parks, plus another 1,500 jobs from associated suppliers.
I appreciate that the Minister has sought to give some reassurances on the change and indicated that the Government are listening, to the extent of reducing the VAT rate to 5%. However, he has made it clear today that no actual calculation has been made on the potential impact of the 5% charge, which is of great concern. Even the reduced charge of 5% will mean either that caravan holidays will become more expensive for holidaymakers or that holiday parks will be forced to absorb losses and job cuts. At a time when consumers are already severely squeezed, many people will simply have to go elsewhere. In turn, the whole economy of holiday towns would be hit, with shops, pubs and attractions losing their main business. Is that really what the Government intended?
Catherine McKinnell
I would be delighted if the hon. Gentleman would answer.
Mr Stuart
I am grateful to the hon. Lady, who is being most generous in giving way. I ask her to note that the National Caravan Council, the industry body, and the British Holiday and Home Parks Association have welcomed the 5% rate. They feel that the Government did listen and that the industry can take on that burden as part of the whole national effort to tackle the vast deficit her party left behind when it left government.
Catherine McKinnell
I am pleased that the industry is “delighted” with a 5% increase in VAT on its products. That is surprising in the circumstances.
Sarah Newton
It is surprising to me that, as far as we are aware from the comments of the shadow Minister, the Opposition will be voting against the very improvements that the hon. Lady says they have been working so hard to achieve. I do not doubt her good intentions or that she has been working very hard to represent her constituents, but if she was truly doing so, she would walk through the Lobby with the Government this evening, because they have listened thoroughly.
Let us take the pasty tax, for example. It will not surprise Members that I am keen to talk about pasties, because not only am I a big fan and regular consumer of them, but I represent Cornwall, where they are an incredibly important industry. When I listened to the Budget some months ago, it was clear to me that the Government were doing exactly the right thing. They had seen some dreadful anomalies in VAT on food that had led to huge unfairness. Independent owners of fish and chip shops in my constituency had to pay VAT, but other outlets selling hot takeaway foods did not. The Government’s attempt to sort out VAT struck me as perfectly reasonable.
We all know that what is really holding back growth in our economy is that for too long, small businesses have been massively overburdened by a dreadfully confused and muddled-up tax code. Under the last Government, the tax code multiplied and multiplied. We would probably have to use a wheelbarrow to carry all its volumes into the Chamber. The current Government are making a very reasonable effort to simplify some of the taxes that are such a burden on businesses in my constituency. They have listened carefully to the representations that have been made and are now going to create a level playing field for all people producing and selling takeaway food. That will benefit independent bakers in small businesses throughout Cornwall who bake pasties.
Mr Graham Stuart
As my hon. Friend is aware, the Government inherited the largest overspend and deficit in the developed world, so it was right for them to probe every possible area of tax revenue. It was also right for them to listen to people when representations were made and to respect parliamentary democracy. Does she agree that if the Labour party had listened to Back Benchers when it was in power, we would not have got into the mess that we are in and we would not have the vast deficit that the Government are having so valiantly to fight to reduce?
Sarah Newton
My hon. Friend makes his point as passionately and persuasively as always, and he is absolutely right.
To return to pasties—one of my favourite subjects—when I listened to the Budget, it was clear to me that there was a problem with the proposals as they stood. Some of the architects of those proposals clearly did not understand how pasties are baked in Cornwall. Within hours I spoke to my hon. Friend the Exchequer Secretary, who clearly understood the problem that I described to him. He said the Government realised that there could be some complications and unforeseen consequences, hence the reason for their consultation. Colleagues from around the country responded positively to that consultation, and their concerns have now been met.
I am staggered by what the Opposition wish to inflict on our country by not supporting the Government tonight. In the nightmarish scenario that they won the Division, we would return to the situation in which the Treasury wastes hundreds of thousands of pounds of taxpayers’ money every year having to fight litigation cases against multi-million-pound companies that are trying to avoid paying VAT. The extremely complicated tax code that was developed under Labour over its 13 years was a lawyers charter. I have nothing against lawyers—I am married to a very good lawyer—but that ever-increasing and complicated tax code means that, not unreasonably, companies try to avoid paying tax. That causes Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs to be tied up in court, spending hundreds of thousands of pounds on lawyers fees that it could be spending in a far better way.
It beggars belief, but what the Labour party is saying tonight is, “We are on the side of companies trying to avoid tax. We are on the side of lawyers who are constantly taking HMRC to court.” What a dreadful waste of taxpayers’ money. The Government are trying to have a fair and simple tax system that everybody in the country can understand, so that we are not caught out by those who avoid taxation.
Mr Stuart
I am grateful to my hon. Friend. Now that a 5% VAT rate has been introduced, does he agree that any Government, whether the coalition or a future Labour Government, would be ill-advised to return to this issue with any form of increase? The level of 5% can be accepted. People do not pay council tax on these caravans. We are talking about a compromise, but one that can last, that the industry can live with and that the political establishment should live with. Indeed, no Government should ever think of returning to the issue at any time while even someone as young as my hon. Friend is in this House.
Andrew Percy
I am being abolished at the next election anyway, so there are only three years in which the Government might have to worry about me. However, they would frankly be stupid—if that is not unparliamentary language—to look at the issue again. I think any Government will take note of the campaign.
The final assurance I seek from the Minister is that we will continue to be conscious that there will still be a potential impact, as was mentioned in interventions by the hon. Member for Kingston upon Hull North (Diana Johnson), who also fought valiantly. I hope that the Treasury will continue to monitor that.
In the final minute, I want quickly to say something about the Opposition’s VAT cut for millionaires, which I think is what they are proposing. Whereas we on this side of the House have decided to target tax changes at those struggling the most—for example, by raising the personal allowance and taking some of the poorest out of tax altogether—the Opposition policy is to issue a massive VAT cut for high earners and millionaires, and just to pepper money around. The Opposition are not quite sure how much—they have not told us, although we think the figure might be £12 billion—and they do not know for how long the measure would be in place. What a policy! The interesting thing we have learnt is that we now know that the Opposition’s official policy is to support, ultimately, VAT at 20%, because they have said that the measure would be temporary, meaning that they have therefore definitely agreed the 20% rate.
Diana Johnson
This section of the debate is about VAT. When we are in a double-dip recession, the imposition of VAT on items such as caravans is not going to help us to grow out of that economic position. That is what I will concentrate on.
The proposal for 20% VAT to be levied on static caravans came out of the blue in the Budget. There had been no consultation with the industry, and no warning that the Government were planning that measure. The impact assessment published alongside the Budget stated that the 20% VAT would result in a 30% reduction in the market for static caravans. The Government’s U-turn involved a 75% reduction in the amount of VAT involved, and 5% will now be levied from April 2103, as opposed to 20% from October 2012.
I can go some way towards welcoming the fact that the Government have listened and put forward a response to the widespread view that the imposition of 20% VAT would have been a disaster. There was cross-party work on the issue, with a number of debates, early-day motions and petitions. I will give the Minister his due; he did take the time to listen to what people had to say, especially those from my part of the world. However, serious concerns remain about the effect that the 5% VAT will have, and I want to run through them tonight.
I want to talk first about jobs and demand, which are at the heart of the issue. As I said, the Treasury’s own figures showed that the imposition of 20% VAT would have resulted in a 30% reduction in demand for static caravans. It worries me that the Treasury seems incapable of using figures appropriately. When I looked at the impact assessment, I realised that it had got the figures for businesses and manufacturers in the caravan industry wrong. It worries me that it cannot even get such basic information correct when it sets out to consult on a proposal. I want to see much better research into the impact of the 5% VAT on caravan manufacturers.
I have not been reassured by what the Minister has told me today, even though I have pressed him to tell me what will happen to manufacturers in the caravan industry. I did not feel that he really had a grasp of what the numbers might be. It worries me that there has been no proper assessment of this policy. Does he think that levying 5% VAT will put at risk roughly a quarter of the demand that the 20% VAT would have put at risk? Does he also think that the number of job losses in the caravan manufacturing industry will be reduced from the 6,000 mentioned in KPMG’s report to about 1,500 as a result of the change in VAT? Will he also comment on the knock-on effects for the wider UK tourism and domestic holiday industry?
I want to draw the Minister’s attention to the HMRC document, “VAT: Taxing Holiday Caravans”, which was published at the end of last week. On the economic impact of the 5%, it states:
“This measure is likely to lead to an increase in the price of static and larger touring caravans which could lead to a fall in demand.”
I take the view that the Treasury civil servants are among the brightest and best that the civil service has to offer, and it seems odd that they have been able to come up with nothing more definitive than that the measure “could” lead to a fall in demand. The document goes on to state:
“Although the overall impact on the macro economy is expected to be negligible, the measure will impact local manufacturing in Yorkshire and the Humber where the bulk of static holiday caravans are manufactured.”
Most people in Hull and East Yorkshire would agree with that, but surely the Treasury can come up with something better. The section of the document entitled “Impact on businesses including civil society organisations” states:
“The vast majority of static holiday caravans are manufactured in Yorkshire and the Humber and a small number of manufacturers account for the vast majority of all UK sales. Although some manufacturers produce other types of caravans, static caravans are the main source of income for most of these manufacturers.”
Again, it worries me that the document uses such general terms. Where is the meat in all this? Where are the figures? Where does it tell us what the actual economic impact of the policy will be?
Let us bear in mind that we are in a double-dip recession and we are all desperate to get growth back into the economy. I mentioned in an intervention that 46.3 people in my constituency chase every job vacancy going, so any loss of jobs in the caravan manufacturing industry is a disaster for my constituents. I think that the hon. Member for Brigg and Goole mentioned that the caravan industry suffered very badly in 2008-09, and it is only just getting back on its feet. If the Treasury thinks that the imposition of 5% VAT will be fine for an industry that is struggling in a double-dip recession when people are not spending, it really needs to look again at its figures and ensure that they all add up.
The Minister said that the goods within a caravan were already taxed, in that VAT had already been levied on such items. My understanding is that the figure involved is about 5%. Will he tell us whether the 5% proposed in the Bill will be an additional 5%, making a total of about 10% VAT payable? I am confused by that, and the Minister has not made it clear.
One of the strongest arguments against the initial proposal for 20% VAT was that it would raise very little revenue for the Treasury. When taking that into account, we also need to consider the welfare costs that would be incurred from people in the industry losing their jobs. Has the Minister looked at the figures involved? Does he think that the sums add up?
HMRC now estimates that the 5% VAT will first raise revenue in 2013-14, when it will bring in £5 million a year, rising to £10 million a year from 2013-14. That is a relatively small amount of money, given the Government’s overall spending, especially in the light of the millions that they have found in the Budget for tax cuts for millionaires. Let us put this into perspective: £10 million is perhaps a third or half of what Mr Diamond’s severance payment might be.
This measure will have an impact from next year onwards, while raising £5 million to £10 million. When we take into account the fall in demand in the industry and the resulting job losses, I do not think that the Treasury will end up in credit. Introducing the measure could result in more money being spent, through welfare benefits. Will the Minister set out for me the sums that he is using to ensure that the measure will bring a net benefit to the Treasury? In my view, this is an ill thought-through policy, and these are crazy economics.
The Minister referred to the manufacturing standard, BS 3632. As I said in my intervention, using a manufacturing standard to dictate tax policy is silly.
Mr Graham Stuart
I want to return to the hon. Lady’s point about the overall costs. A significant percentage of the cost of a new caravan is found in the chattels inside, which already have VAT on them. So the additional overall cost will not be higher than 5%; it will be more like 3% or 4% on the overall average retail cost of a caravan. The manufacturers are telling me that they think that that can broadly be absorbed within their business model. It will have some negative impact, but a fairly minimal one. We are certainly not talking about 10% costs, but about rather less than 5%.
Diana Johnson
I am grateful for that intervention, and I pay tribute to the hon. Gentleman for the work he did on this matter. However, I would really like to hear from the Minister what the VAT level is going to be, because my understanding is that it is 5% plus the additional VAT already levied. The hon. Gentleman says that it is 3% or 4% and not 5%, but is that 3% or 4% on top of the 5%, which would mean it was 8% or 9%, not 5%?
Mr Stuart
Basically, VAT has already been paid on those chattels, so if 25% of the cost of the caravan were for the chattels, that already includes VAT, so we are looking at 5% on 75% of the overall cost of the caravan. That is why it is significantly less than 5% as an addition to the actual cost when someone goes to a park to try to buy a caravan. The additional costs as a result of this change will be significantly less than 5%—I say that clearly and categorically.
Diana Johnson
I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman again, but I would still like to hear from the Minister exactly what the figure will be. My understanding—I was at the same meeting with the caravan manufacturers in Beverley as the hon. Member for Beverley and Holderness (Mr Stuart)—was that a figure was levied across the whole price of the caravan, including the chattels in the caravan at around 3% or 4% of the overall cost. Will the Minister clarify that? Are there two figures that we need to be aware of, or is it just 5% overall of the total amount of the purchase? I have to tell the Government that if this were intended to make things clearer, the truth is that it is making things even more complicated and less transparent.
Let me return to the BS 3632 specification. I was saying that I thought that that was not a sensible way to make tax policy. I know that the distinction between static caravans and those used for residential purposes 365 days of the year is based on the reference to BS 3632. If we look at the responses to HMRC’s consultation, we see that while many respondents felt it would be relatively straightforward to upgrade static caravans to meet the BS 3632 standard so that they could benefit from zero-rated standing, many others said that the costs of doing so would be prohibitive. There is a confusion there, which is why I would like the Minister to be very clear about it.
With certified British standards changing all the time because manufacturing gets better and better, how often does the Minister think he would need to return to this tax provision to update it? I doubt whether it will be set in stone for years to come; it will have to be looked at and changed in the future. I heard the Minister’s reassurance that we would not see changes to the standard in the future, but he is opening the door to potential changes. The system that the Minister has devised, based on the British standard and keeping the distinction between static, residential and touring caravans, does not make things clearer and more transparent; rather, I think it extends the anomalies in the tax system.
An even bigger issue for me is the lack of clear evidence of what the change to VAT policy will do for my constituents and for jobs in my city. That is what really concerns and worries me. I know that the Minister has listened carefully to my pleas about employment and jobs. I hope he will think again and will instruct his officials to do a proper piece of work, so that when MPs scrutinise Government policy, they will have accurate figures to look at in order to assess whether the Government’s policies will result in what they say they are trying to achieve. In this case, I do not think the Government will see additional revenue in the Exchequer. If they bring forward this ill thought-through proposal, which will disproportionately affect my constituents, there will be a loss to the Government.
Finance Bill
Graham Stuart Excerpts(12 years, 4 months ago)
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Mr Graham Stuart (Beverley and Holderness) (Con)
I am delighted that the hon. Lady has given way. I wonder whether she could bring her speech to a close, so that we might hear from someone who really does have some authority on this subject and who has so ably led the campaign to bring about this change.
Cathy Jamieson
I acknowledge that the hon. Member for Harlow (Robert Halfon), to whom the hon. Gentleman is referring, did a lot of work on the campaign. However, given the earlier suggestions that there was a lack of interest in this subject on the Opposition Benches because of the lack of numbers here tonight, I felt it important to lay out our case fully. I hear what the hon. Gentleman is saying, however, and I will bring my remarks to a conclusion.
I want to ask the Minister some specific questions. Now that the Treasury has had a week or so in which to do the number crunching—if it had not already done so—what areas of departmental underspend have now been identified to ensure that the decision to delay the August 2012 increase in fuel duty will be met in a fiscally neutral way? Will the Minister also tell us which Departments have, through budget exchange, already surrendered an underspend in advance of the end of this financial year, and which Departments are expected to have greater than originally forecast savings in departmental spending in 2012-13?
I do not have time to comment on the points that have been raised about biofuels. Perhaps I shall be able to do so in another debate. In conclusion, however, I should like to refer Members to new clause 9. We shall not be pressing it to a vote this evening, but it calls for a review of the relationship between fuel duty, other taxes charged on road fuels, and the cost of road fuel. It was made clear in the recent Westminster Hall debate that such a review might reflect the views not only of the Opposition but of many Government Members —I see some of them nodding—and I hope that the Government will be good enough to listen to that proposal, and to come forward with a plan to establish such a review.
Barry Gardiner
I am sure that it is only a matter of time. In so far as the hon. Gentleman seeks to speak for his party—
Barry Gardiner
I do not want to see dissent break out on the Government Benches. No fighting amongst yourselves, please, gentlemen. These are serious matters. They cannot be treated as an experiment because people suffer.
Static Caravans (VAT)
Graham Stuart Excerpts(12 years, 7 months ago)
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Mr Graham Stuart (Beverley and Holderness) (Con)
It is a pleasure to be on my feet again in the Chamber with an opportunity to talk about an issue that is so important to the people of east Yorkshire and coastal and rural communities around the land.
East Yorkshire is at the heart of the caravan industry. I have a major manufacturer, ABI, in the centre of Beverley, suppliers to the manufacturers scattered around my constituency and parks dotted down the Holderness coast. For us, static holiday homes are a big deal. The presence of so many Members, despite the fact that it is a Thursday evening, when Members are normally thinking of moving back to their constituencies, demonstrates the depth and breadth of concern about this issue, not least among Government Members.
Mr Stuart
Before I give way to my hon. Friend, I should point out that I shall be the only person making a speech before the Minister responds, but because there has been so much interest in the debate, I shall give way to as many hon. Friends on both sides of the Chamber as I possibly can as we work together to persuade the Treasury to think again.
Brandon Lewis
I thank my hon. Friend for giving way and for outlining how generous he intends to be. He mentioned the depth and breadth of concern about this issue. In Great Yarmouth, the tourism industry is worth about £500 million, and an estimated 50% of our bed space is in static caravans. Over the years, they have come to have more in common with park homes than with mobile caravans. Does my hon. Friend agree that that might be a better way for them to be assessed?
Mr Stuart
My hon. Friend is absolutely right, and I shall address that point in my speech.
I ran a street surgery in Withernsea, a coastal town in my constituency, on Saturday. As I stood talking to people and handing out leaflets, perhaps as many as three out of 10 people said to me, “I’m not from round here, mate.” They were not staying in bed and breakfasts or hotels, because we have hardly any in the area; they were staying in static caravans. Two or three out of every 10 people going into Aldi, or into the bakery down the road, or spending money in the pubs were staying in static caravans. In addition to those directly employed in the manufacture of the caravans and in addition to the parks, however important they all are, the importance of visitors to the rural economy is immense. That is why there has been such a groundswell of feeling that this issue should be reconsidered.
Heather Wheeler (South Derbyshire) (Con)
I have two firms in South Derbyshire that are particularly concerned about the new tax. One is Mercia Marina, and the other is Truma, which makes fittings for static and other caravans. They both believe that 20% of their business could be wiped out overnight, should the tax come into force. Would the Treasury be kind enough to look again at the cost-benefit analysis for this measure? It will find that wider areas, including tourism and jobs, will be greatly affected.
Mr Stuart
My hon. Friend is absolutely right.
I have good news, as I am sure the Minister will confirm later, in that the Government have listened to us. Hon. Friends on both sides of the House who represent East Yorkshire constituencies came together immediately after the Budget and we met the manufacturers. What we heard from them was chilling. The industry employs thousands in the manufacturing sector and tens of thousands in the parks. The Government estimate a 30% drop in demand, and that can only mean that thousands of jobs will be lost and that an industry that is struggling to recover from the credit crunch will be knocked backwards.
Mr David Davis (Haltemprice and Howden) (Con)
I congratulate my hon. Friend on securing this important debate. He has raised the central point. The aim of the Budget was, quite rightly, to encourage growth and jobs and to pay off the deficit. Is it not the case, however, that this particular measure is likely to destroy jobs and raise less money than we currently raise? It would therefore meet none of those objectives, and the Treasury ought to retract the measure in total.
Mr Stuart
My right hon. Friend is absolutely right. He and I have discussed this matter with the Chancellor, who has spoken to us about it separately on a number of other occasions. We also went in a group of 11 colleagues to see the Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury, my hon. Friend the Member for South West Hertfordshire (Mr Gauke). The reason for our only being 11 was that we did not think that there would be room for more around the table; it was not due to lack of interest. There is enormous concern about this issue.
I am delighted to say that, when we debated the matter last week, the Minister agreed to extend the consultation. The Chancellor confirmed that it was a genuine consultation and that the Government would look at the evidence from us and from those out there in the industry—everyone should get involved in that—and would be prepared to look at the matter in the light of the impact that the measure will have.
Mr Greg Knight (East Yorkshire) (Con)
During the extended consultation, which we welcome, it has come to light that Britain is now in the throes of the worst economic slump for more than a century. Is that not a compelling reason on its own for the Minister to say, “I have reflected on this matter. I have decided that this is the wrong tax at the wrong time, and I am dropping it”?
Mr Stuart
My right hon. Friend is right. He and many other Members on the Government Benches who would not dream of opposing the Government’s general strategy, or even most of the specifics, have such profound doubts about this one policy that they are asking the Treasury to think again.
Lisa Nandy (Wigan) (Lab)
Does the hon. Gentleman agree with the point made to me by Pemberton Leisure Homes in my constituency that the measure will also have a profoundly damaging effect on apprenticeships? That firm employs 160 people, but it also has many apprentices. I know that the Government are keen to boost the number of apprenticeships. Does the hon. Gentleman agree that this measure could be problematic for that policy objective too?
Mr John Whittingdale (Maldon) (Con)
My hon. Friend referred to the Treasury’s own estimate that the measure may lead to a 30% reduction in demand. If that figure is correct, the measure will have a devastating effect on the parks in my constituency. However, I do not know whether my hon. Friend’s experience is the same as mine, but all my park owners are saying that they regard the 30% reduction as a gross underestimate. Osea leisure park, just one of those park owners, has told me that it believes that there could be a 60% reduction in demand for new homes.
Mr Stuart
My hon. Friend is absolutely right. Of course, many parks have made major investments, some of them—I hate to say it, as one hates to talk about vulnerable businesses—are highly geared, and if there is a chilling impact and eddies of demand, notwithstanding a little additional demand before 1 October, we could subsequently see more than a 30% reduction, which could result in the closure of manufacturers and park businesses that have invested for the longer term in this excellent British tourism industry.
Anne Marie Morris (Newton Abbot) (Con)
Tourism is key to my constituency, and Dawlish Warren has a huge number of static caravans. Chilling figures given to me from Peppermint park in Dawlish Warren suggest a loss of 4,300 jobs just from the parks, with the loss of 1,500 jobs in the supply industry, 80 caravan distribution jobs and 1,400 from holiday homes manufacturers. If my maths is right, that is about 8,000 jobs lost.
Simon Hart (Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire) (Con)
Does my hon. Friend understand the sense of bemusement among more than 20 firms in Pembrokeshire and Carmarthenshire that were looking to the Budget for some form of stimulus but have ended up getting stifled? Will he put as much pressure as possible on the Treasury through his good offices to look at this issue again and to take the views of the House into account?
Roberta Blackman-Woods (City of Durham) (Lab)
I thank the hon. Gentleman for giving way and for securing this important debate. Does he agree with Mr Ballantine, who runs Ideal Caravans in Langley Moor in my constituency, that the Treasury must look at this issue again if jobs are not to be lost in an area that is already experiencing high levels of unemployment?
Mark Menzies (Fylde) (Con)
I thank my hon. Friend for securing this debate. Three caravan park owners saw me at my surgery on Friday. The people staying at their caravans visit Blackpool and the sort of areas that the hon. Member for City of Durham (Roberta Blackman-Woods) talks about—areas that are struggling and need support. I ask the Minister to think again about this tax.
Mr Stuart
I am grateful to my hon. Friend. I know that the hon. Member for Scarborough and Whitby (Mr Goodwill), who I see on the Front Bench, has organised a meeting with his local park businesses in order to hear their concerns this coming Friday. Again, that shows how close this issue is to all of us.
Stuart Andrew (Pudsey) (Con)
This debate is fast turning into a tour of the country, so I welcome my hon. Friend to Pudsey, where the manufacturing company, Ellbee, saw the downturn coming and made the difficult decisions at the time to lay people off, going right down to the bare knuckle. With this proposal, the company will almost inevitably have to close. That will mean the loss of more jobs in an area that can ill afford to lose them.
Mr Stuart
According to the National Caravan Council, if we take Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs forecast of a 30% reduction in demand, home production will reduce to 10,689 units—the lowest production level on record—with inevitable consequences for manufacturers, suppliers and parks.
Dr Thérèse Coffey (Suffolk Coastal) (Con)
I suggest that there has been a misunderstanding in the Treasury about the proportion of people who own such homes and stay in them for long periods at a time as against regular weekly letting. Does my hon. Friend know that if people stay in a hotel for more than 28 days, VAT does not have to be paid? Some parallels could be drawn.
Mr Stuart
My hon. Friend is right. I am not sure that I am ever going to get on to the issue of the non-anomaly that this measure is tackling. We are fortunate that Roger Tym & Partners produced a report on the economic impact of UK holiday parks in January this year, showing that 85% of static units are privately owned and that the remaining 15% are rented out as part of a park’s letting fleet. The market that will be most hit is the one that drives profits on these parks and drives investment. I do not think that the Treasury factored that into its calculations properly.
Alan Johnson (Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle) (Lab)
I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman for arranging this serial intervention event.
This afternoon I spoke to Lord Haskins, who is the chair of our local enterprise partnership and the business leader in Hull. He believes that the damage resulting from this measure will, at a stroke, remove all the advantages of our two enterprise zones and local enterprise partnership. Should not the voice of business take precedence in this debate?
Mr Stuart
The right hon. Gentleman is right. He may not entirely share my sentiments when I say that the coalition has a great story to tell for east Yorkshire—the Humber bridge tolls have come down, and investments have been made in the A164, the Beverley relief road and the coastal communities fund—but I agree with him that this measure could have a devastating impact.
Peter Aldous (Waveney) (Con)
Does my hon. Friend agree that the Treasury has failed to take full account of the impact of the proposal on jobs, which will cascade all the way down from manufacturers to small and medium-sized enterprises? Moreover, it will be concentrated in particular parts of the country, such as his constituency and mine, which will not be able to take that extra impact.
Tessa Munt (Wells) (LD)
The caravans that are made in the hon. Gentleman’s constituency end up in the 79 caravan parks in my part of the south-west, which contains the second largest conglomeration of holidays of that kind. More than 6,000 people in my constituency own their caravans, but 900 of the caravans are part of a letting arrangement. Does my hon. Friend agree that this measure would have a catastrophic effect on the 26,000 people who have jobs in tourism—carpenters, plumbers, electricians, gardeners and cleaners? Many of them are part-time and seasonal workers.
Holidays of this kind are provided for people with low incomes. Should we not reward them for their loyalty in holidaying in the United Kingdom? Moreover, many of them eventually move into bricks and mortar in my constituency because they have enjoyed their holidays there so much.
Guto Bebb (Aberconwy) (Con)
According to the Treasury impact assessment, 750 businesses will be affected, but we estimate that 400 holiday parks will be affected in Wales alone, which would be a devastating blow for the economy of north Wales.
Eric Ollerenshaw (Lancaster and Fleetwood) (Con)
Caravan park owners in my constituency want to know why, after 39 years of VAT, there should suddenly be an anomaly, given that there is a clear distinction in law between a travelling caravan, a residential caravan and a static caravan.
Mr Stuart
I will give way to my other colleagues shortly, but let me first respond to my hon. Friend the Member for Lancaster and Fleetwood (Eric Ollerenshaw).
The Finance Act 1972 introduced zero rating of certain caravans. The notes on clauses relating to what was then group 10 of schedule 4 referred to relief for
“houses and other domestic accommodation”,
and stated:
“The caravans in the Group are akin to houses; they are too large to be towed on the road, and are usually permanently attached to the land.”
The deliberate intention of the law, which was debated in the House—with no anomaly, no forgotten section, and no category of products that had been missed—was to treat caravans, other than those towed by cars, as “other domestic accommodation” in the same way as houses.
Mark Garnier (Wyre Forest) (Con)
In my constituency, many people view static caravans as second homes. Is there not a case for the Treasury to treat them as second homes, subject to stamp duty, rather than making them subject to VAT like mobile caravans?
Mr Stuart
That would be consistent, because the qualities of a mobile caravan are completely different from those of a static caravan or a house. What are static caravans used for? They are second homes. Someone who buys a £240,000 cottage in one of the rural areas represented by my colleagues, which often means pricing out local workers, will pay tax of 1%, whereas it is proposed that someone who buys a static caravan for £24,000, a tenth of that amount, should pay 20%— 20 times as much—on a home that is used for precisely the same purposes. That is not getting rid of an anomaly, as Treasury civil servants originally suggested; it is creating an anomaly.
Craig Whittaker (Calder Valley) (Con)
BCA Leisure is a large company in the Calder valley. It does not employ thousands of people, but it does employ a couple of hundred. It does not own caravan parks or manufacture caravans; it produces parts that supply the caravan trade. The chief executive officer tells me that the proposed measure will deal a huge blow to his company and to other employers in the Calder valley. Does my hon. Friend agree that it will be devastating not only to the tourism industry, but to manufacturing?
Simon Reevell
Jay-Be in my constituency is a company that took on workers when Silentnight had to close. It took them on to make beds and soft furnishings for the caravan industry. Does my hon. Friend agree that it is absurd that it now faces having to sack one fifth of its work force because of a provision contained in a Budget for growth?
Mr Stuart
My hon. Friend is right. All Government Members are committed to the aims and objectives set out in the Budget. We wanted a Budget for growth. We support lifting people out of tax; we support lowering corporation tax; we want investment; we want British industry to be supported. May of us are therefore gently but firmly—and, I hope, powerfully—saying to the Government this evening that this measure should be looked at again, and, as I have said, they have agreed to do so.
Terence Higgins, then Financial Secretary to the Treasury, said in March 1973:
“We have already distinguished between two kinds of caravan; the kind of caravan which is a home or a residence, and not normally the kind that one tows around—because even outside the West Country it would be too large to tow conveniently—and that which is not regarded as a home. Because of the general provision in legislation for relief from VAT for housing it was thought appropriate to include large caravans within the scope of relief.”—[Official Report, 20 March 1973; Vol. 853, c. 393.]
Therefore, any suggestion that that was not considered by this House is false. I hope that will be reflected on.
In June 1989, when my right hon. Friend the Member for Hitchin and Harpenden (Mr Lilley) was Economic Secretary to the Treasury, he said that there was no question of withdrawing zero rating from the purchase of static caravans. He was right then, and we should stick with that view now.
I want to give the Minister 10 minutes in which to reply, if no other colleagues wish to intervene on me. [Interruption.] Give him eight minutes? Okay, fair enough. Finally therefore, let me pass on to the Minister some comments from a constituent of mine.
Aaron Cambridge and I live in the same town, Beverley in east Yorkshire. He works at Willerby Holiday Homes, which in the most recent industry returns at the end of last year was listed as having more than 800 employees. It is based in the constituency of the hon. Member for Kingston upon Hull East (Karl Turner), whom I am delighted to see in his place. Even without this proposed VAT increase, Aaron has been on a reduced work schedule of three-and-a-half days a week for the past six months. He told me that he has worked in the caravan industry for 24 years and can never remember such hard times for the industry. That is the situation the industry is in now, before this possible VAT increase. There are 800 staff just at Willerby, which is a manufacturer, and we know that there tend to be many more associated jobs in supplier firms and others around a manufacturing centre.
Cathy Jamieson
Does the hon. Gentleman agree that the Treasury should look again at the impact assessment? It estimates that it will take in some £35 million in 2013-14 as a result of this measure, but it should look again at the impact assessment to compare that with the amount of money that will be lost in the wider economy.
Mr Stuart
The hon. Lady is right. I have many more examples, including that of Laura Goldspink, who lives in my constituency and also works at Willerby Holiday Homes. Charles Gillett, who runs a business that is 100% reliant on the caravan industry, has talked of
“an industry on a knife edge, struggling to emerge from the ravages of the recent recession.”
He, too, pointed out that it is not 750 companies affected, but well over 2,000. Peter Smith, the chairman of the Swift Group—one of the leading employers in east Yorkshire, with 800 staff and a turnover of £200 million —has said:
“A very conservative HMRC prediction is a reduction in demand of 30% which would lead to the lowest market figure for over a decade of around 11,000 units,”
as we have discussed. He continued:
“Such a reduction is likely to increase the cost of materials (due to economies of scale), make credit harder to come by and jeopardise the viability of manufacturers and suppliers.”
I have said enough. Peter Smith put his finger on it, as have all the other Members who have spoken. The Budget is all about creating jobs, but if this measure is implemented, it would have exactly the opposite effect. What we ask, from both sides of the House, but particularly the Government Benches, is for the Minister to listen to the contributions to the consultation and reconsider.
Mr Deputy Speaker
I am sorry that we did not have time in this relatively short debate to hear most of the speech that the hon. Gentleman was holding in his hands.
Mr Gauke
As I have said, the Office for Budget Responsibility takes into account the second-round effects of all measures in the Budget.
Time is short, so let me turn to the demand reduction estimates and the figure of 30% that a number of hon. Members have quoted. HMRC has estimated that, as with what are described as “discretionary leisure durables”, expenditure on static holiday caravans will be impacted by the measure, with a 1.5% fall for every 1% increase in price. However, we should all be clear that this reduction in expenditure will apply only to static holiday caravans sold to the final consumer, and only to the proportion of the price of such caravans not already subject to VAT. The reduction in expenditure does not, therefore, apply to the approximately one third of caravans sold to caravan sites for rental. Their price should not change, as the caravan site will normally be able to reclaim the VAT in the usual way. That part of the static caravan market will not be affected by the measure. Neither will the measure affect the 20% of the price of a static holiday caravan that is already subject to VAT in respect of its removable contents.
Taking account of those factors, the overall fall in expenditure should be less than the 30% reduction indicated in the impact assessment. That is because the estimated 30% reduction refers only to the specific parts of the market that will be impacted by the measure: sales to private individuals who cannot reclaim the VAT.
Mr Stuart
Can my hon. Friend confirm that the Treasury did not do that much work on this? Where did it get the one third figure from? It is not one that I have heard from anybody. The Tym & Partners report, which is available and has been since January, talks about 277,760 owned statics and 49,600 rented statics. By no means is 49,000 one third of 277,000. It has been suggested that 750 companies will be affected, but the real figure is more than 2,000. The Treasury did not do its homework and Ministers are in a tough spot because they did not spot that.
Mr Gauke
That estimate was made on the basis of the evidence that the Treasury and Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs had before them. The point I wish to make is that a genuine consultation is taking place and we look forward to receiving evidence that my hon. Friend has and others have, so that we can make a further assessment of those costings.
Let me now discuss the impact on caravan manufacturers. We recognise that the impact on static holiday caravan manufacturers will not be trivial. The level of the impact will, of course, depend on the variety of products produced by those manufacturers. Many hon. Members are concerned about caravan sites, but it is worth bearing in mind that caravan holiday parks have a variety of sources of revenue, most of which will not be affected by the VAT change. Such sources include: charging a siting fee; running a shop; group insurance scheme commission; commission on the resale of used holiday caravans; and commission on letting on behalf of the owners—sub-letting—and so on.
I recognise that applying VAT to the sale of new holiday caravans will not be welcome, as this has been a significant income stream for many parks. However, there is a good deal of flexibility within the range of products and services that caravan holiday parks offer to allow them to adapt their mix of business to the new VAT treatment of holiday caravans. I recognise that there are challenges involved in adapting to these changes in the tax regime, but there is scope for adaptation.
The main point I wish to make today is that we would welcome any evidence provided through the consultation, which, as my hon. Friend has pointed out, has been extended, be it evidence on the costing or on other matters.
Finance (No. 4) Bill
Graham Stuart Excerpts(12 years, 7 months ago)
Commons ChamberRead Full debate Read Hansard Text Read Debate Ministerial Extracts
Alan Johnson
My hon. Friend is right because, on the Treasury’s assessment, more than 1,000 jobs are going to be lost. Some 90% of this manufacturing industry is based in east Yorkshire. I say to those on the Treasury Bench that this is not an industry that has asked for help from the Government—indeed, in 2008-09, it had to pull itself up by its bootstraps. Having done that, this is not a question of its asking the Government for any help; it is about asking the Treasury and the Government not to inflict on that industry a possible death blow to a great British manufacturing success story.
Mr Graham Stuart (Beverley and Holderness) (Con)
It is my pleasure to follow the other speakers. Like all those who have spoken so far, apart from those on the Front Bench, I shall speak to new clause 6 and the proposal that the Finance Bill should set out that this House will not approve, in a future statutory instrument, the imposition of VAT on static caravans. So much has already been said, but I must point out that my constituency contains ABI, a major manufacturer in the heart of Beverley; companies in the immediate area that are part of the supply chain; and a series of parks along the Holderness coast that depend for their profits on the sales of static homes, as we discover when we speak to the owners.
The Treasury’s assessment of the impact of introducing the VAT is that there would be a 30% reduction in sales. When we think about the employers in the various constituencies in Hull, in my constituency and in those of my right hon. Friends the Members for Haltemprice and Howden (Mr Davis) and for East Yorkshire (Mr Knight), we find that so many companies are involved. More than 90% of the production of static caravans in the UK is concentrated in east Yorkshire and, as has just been said, so successful is this industry in the UK that nearly all the caravans that are bought and installed in the UK are built there. So my constituency has a great concentration of all those who may suffer from a 30% reduction in demand—manufacturers and all the people who work in that area, suppliers, and the parks themselves.
Glyn Davies (Montgomeryshire) (Con)
I associate myself with the concern that my hon. Friend is showing and that many of my constituents also show. Does he share my concern about the disruption around the introduction date that will be caused to the manufacturing side of the industry? Does he share my hope that in the intervening period Ministers will examine ways in which they can limit that disruption?
Mr Stuart
I am grateful to my hon. Friend for his intervention, but I am not looking for Ministers to limit that disruption; I am looking for them to remove that disruption altogether. However, he is right to mention the date. We are talking about a major manufacturing business. We are talking about businesses with 700 staff involved in tooling up, buying in the resources and planning their production, yet we are facing the introduction of this VAT on 1 October. Let us imagine the impact on the supply chain; imagine the impact on ordering; imagine the eddies of people looking to beat the deadline and at the same time destock to make sure that they do not hold stock on 1 October when whatever product they have will be 20% more expensive and potentially unsaleable.
Miss Anne McIntosh (Thirsk and Malton) (Con)
I have been listening very carefully to my hon. Friend. Is he concerned that, as in my constituency, the business plans for this year of businesses that have static caravans and want to increase their numbers will be completely in ruin?
Mr Stuart
My hon. Friend is right. We have heard examples of managing directors of companies being called in by their banks to talk about lending provision because of the threat and uncertainty that this measure brings. It will be extremely disruptive to a fantastic British manufacturing success story. Let me go through the process. The supply chain is in the UK. It is very much concentrated in east Yorkshire but hundreds of people are employed by suppliers elsewhere in Yorkshire and across the country.
Andrew Gwynne
The hon. Gentleman is making an eloquent case regarding the supply chain, which is indeed spread right across the United Kingdom. Let me draw to his attention the correspondence I have had from a company called Phantom Ltd, based in Reddish in my constituency, which supplies security and safety systems to the leisure market, including the caravan market. It says that the VAT increase could be “devastating” for its business and that its
“plans for expansion will be severely curtailed and new employment opportunities will be lost.”
Is that not the reality of these measures for the wider supply chain?
Mr Stuart
I fear that the hon. Gentleman may be right.
As I was saying, there is the supply chain and manufacturers, all of which are UK-based, then there is the sales channel and the deployment of the end product. Where? That is in rural and often coastal areas and areas with low incomes all over the country. What is the effect? It is to bring people, once they have made the capital investment in a caravan, to visit those areas week in, week out, bringing all sorts of economic benefits to areas that otherwise do not have a lot of industry to fall back on. When one looks at the industry in the round like that, one sees that it is special. Perhaps everybody says that, but we must consider how successful it is and who it serves. I have not even got to the point about who will be affected. We are talking about people who want to make a purchase of a home for about £30,000, not people who can switch easily to making a bricks-and-mortar purchase. When the tax-dodging, socialist, multi-millionaire candidate for the London mayoralty goes off to console himself by buying a cottage, he will not have to pay VAT, but when hard-working, decent people who like to pay their taxes go to get a slice of the decent life and have a stake in the countryside they will find that the caravan they want to buy at £30,000 now costs £36,000.
Mr Alan Reid (Argyll and Bute) (LD)
The hon. Gentleman is making his case eloquently. In my area, which is a large, rural, coastal area, there is a large number of caravan sites, which bring a lot of money into the local economy. He is right that this measure will affect large parts of the country. I fully support him in his new clause and I hope that the Government will have second thoughts.
Andrew George (St Ives) (LD)
I, too, have put my name to the new clause. Is the hon. Gentleman aware of the anomaly in areas such as mine where there is a planning restriction on occupancy where static caravans exist, making them ideal for people who want to use them for holiday homes? Under the measure, static bricks-and-mortar constructions will not be subject to the same level of taxation, so the measure will benefit those who can afford to have a second home and will therefore have an impact on the availability of housing for local people, whereas the presence of static caravans does not impact on the local community in the same way.
Mr Stuart
My hon. Friend is quite right. That is why the hon. Member for Ynys Môn (Albert Owen) has a fair point. Some people will be able to afford permanent housing, thereby further pressurising the housing market in areas where such housing is limited. Static caravan parks have been a perfect arrangement, because they allow both the local community and people from outside to benefit. They have meant that the local worker who is looking for a house—often someone who works at a caravan park—has been better able to find a house.
Chris Bryant
I hope the hon. Gentleman will accept that in some cases people will not be making choices but will have absolutely no choice. In my mother’s case when everything had gone wrong in her life and the only money she had was the money she was going to spend on a static home, the difference between £30,000 and £36,000 would have been the difference between homelessness and having a home.
Mr Stuart
I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman, although properly designated permanent homes will continue to be VAT-free. We are talking about static holiday homes that are not supposed to be a main residence, although there are people in my constituency and elsewhere who are occupying under false pretences, whether misled by the owner of the park, as sometimes happens, or having allowed themselves to be misled.
Nadhim Zahawi
I am listening carefully to my hon. Friend. What would he say to a dealer and park operator in my constituency who said that we cannot defend the anomaly for what is deemed a luxury purchase? They want a bit more time for consultation and forward planning. The idea that a towable caravan is VATable, but a static one is not is indefensible.
Mr Stuart
In truth, if we were starting with a blank sheet the tax system would look nothing like it does today, but we are not starting with a blank sheet. We have an industry with the characteristics I have described, yet at this of all times we are about to introduce VAT. Will it raise £500 million or £1 billion towards the massive deficit left to us by Labour? No. At best, it will raise £45 million a year while damaging the economy in east Yorkshire and in rural areas across the UK. As a practical politician, keen though I am on tax simplification, it is not obvious to me that this particular simplification is justified now. It is not, and the Government should think again.
The Government are consulting; they accept that they do not have all the answers and the proposal is out for consultation. The shadow Chancellor may not take it at face value that the Government are serious and that they are consulting properly, but I do. I have met the Chancellor and he has told me that that is the case, so I call on the Government to listen to the representations from the Chamber today and to those that will come from the industry over coming days and weeks, and to think again. Given the appalling inheritance from the shadow Chancellor, there is no embarrassment in looking hard at every area. There is a good intellectual case for the proposal in theory, but in practice it is a bad idea. It will not bring in enough money. It threatens many jobs and it should be rejected, as I am sure it will be.
Mr Greg Knight (East Yorkshire) (Con)
There is a lot to be said on the issue, so does my hon. Friend agree that the Government would be wise to extend the consultation period?
Mr Stuart
My right hon. Friend is right. Having secured from the Chancellor an absolute commitment that there will genuinely be consultation, I ask the Government to extend the period and allow us to make the strongest possible case. It will also allow us further to expand the coalition in the House. Ministers will be aware that there is strong feeling in the Committee today that the proposal should be reconsidered. I look for a sign that they recognise the strength of feeling in the Chamber. The proposal does not make economic sense; we have not one but two enterprise zones in east Yorkshire. Why? It is because of the difficulties of unemployment in our area.
We have had great news. In all the years under the Labour Government when they spent so much money, did they reduce the tolls on the Humber bridge? No, they did not, but this Government have made the right decision. They are putting in commitment. This is a Budget for growth. It is a Budget that takes people out of tax. It is a Budget that reduces corporation tax. It is a Budget that will create employment in east Yorkshire, which is why we must make sure we get all the detail right. I am grateful that the Government are consulting. I recognise that it is a sign that they see room for manoeuvre. I want them to extend the consultation period and I look forward in due course to their finding other ways of dealing with the vast deficit left behind by the incompetents who sit on the Opposition Front Bench.
Mr Graham Stuart
A two-week extension is not a large extension, but it is an extension none the less. However, the Government and the Chancellor must ensure that this is a genuine consultation. Ministers have heard what has been said tonight. They must think again, and reverse their proposal. If they say that they will do so, I shall be happy to take that at face value, but we do not want to see thousands of jobs in east Yorkshire axed as a result of this measure.
Mr Gauke
My hon. Friend continues to make his case very strongly. We are, of course, listening to the arguments, but we think it right to have a VAT system that deals with some of the anomalies, and that is why we have finally addressed some of the problems that have remained in our VAT system for too long.
The First Deputy Chairman of Ways and Means (Mr Nigel Evans)
We come now to new clause 6. I call Mr Stuart to move it formally.
Mr Graham Stuart
After the concession by the Government, I choose not to move the new clause.
New Clause 6
VAT on Caravans
‘No new Order shall be made under section 30(4) or 31(2) of the Value Added Tax Act 1994 which amends the Act to apply to holiday caravans that are currently zero rated.’.—(Diana Johnson.)
Brought up.
The First Deputy Chairman
The question is, that the clause be—[Interruption.] The clause has been moved by another Member, which is allowable.
Question put, That the clause be added to the Bill.
Finance (No. 4) Bill
Graham Stuart Excerpts(12 years, 7 months ago)
Commons ChamberRead Full debate Read Hansard Text Read Debate Ministerial Extracts
Danny Alexander
I will give the hon. Gentleman time to cool down, if he likes. He will know that a draft statutory instrument has been published, which goes into the matter in some detail, and the House may well have an opportunity to discuss it in due course. However, the basic answer is that food that is hot and taken away is taxed as hot takeaway food. It is as simple as that.
We will stick to our plans on the economy because financial discipline is the essential pre-condition for economic growth, even though that requires difficult and sometimes unpopular decisions, and helps provide confidence and the low and stable interest rates that businesses need to invest in growth and job creation. That confidence was shown at the weekend by the reaffirmation of this country’s triple A credit rating by Standard & Poor’s, the same agency that called it into question when the right hon. Member for Morley and Outwood (Ed Balls) was a member of the Cabinet.
We are committed to securing a recovery led by private sector entrepreneurs, wealth creators and export industries—the sort of growth that the Opposition failed to deliver in more than a decade in government. That is why we are going even further in the Bill to boost our competitiveness and ensure that Britain is again one of the best places in the world to do business, reversing our fall down the global competitiveness league tables that took place under the Labour Administration.
Mr Graham Stuart (Beverley and Holderness) (Con)
This is a Budget for jobs—it lowers corporation tax and takes some people out of tax altogether. That is why it is particularly concerning that it proposes to introduce 20% VAT on static caravans, which are mostly manufactured in east Yorkshire and are deployed in coastal and rural communities throughout the country—the entire supply chain is in this country. The cost of the proposal in jobs will be thousands, and I am grateful that the Government are consulting on it. Does my right hon. Friend agree that Members of all parties are concerned? We need to get that right because the Budget will reverse the destruction of manufacturing that happened under the previous Government, and we do not want to make any inadvertent errors.
Danny Alexander
I am grateful to my hon. Friend for raising that point. I know that it is a matter of concern to several Members, particularly in his part of the country. The change is, again, intended to equalise the VAT system for caravans that are used for leisure purposes. There will certainly be an opportunity to consider the detail, and my hon. Friend will be free to make representations, along with, I am sure, colleagues from his part of the country. We look forward to hearing what he has to say.
Danny Alexander
No, I will make some progress, because, as my hon. Friend also said, and as the House knows, the Government have already set out plans to reduce the main rate of corporation tax to 23%, but this year’s Finance Bill goes even further for precisely the reasons that he gave.
Clauses 5 and 6 will reduce the main rate of corporation tax to 22% by 2014—a headline rate that is dramatically lower than that of our competitors, the lowest in the G7 and the fourth lowest in the G20.
Rachel Reeves
This Government are borrowing an extra £150 billion because of the costs of their economic failure. The reality is that, with more people out of work and therefore claiming benefits, and with fewer businesses succeeding and paying taxes, this Government are ending up borrowing more, because their risky gamble with their economic policies has failed.
Instead of continuing on the downward path begun under the previous Government, total unemployment has mounted to new highs. It is now at the highest level since 1997. Some 2.67 million people are out of work. More than 1 million young people are out of work. We have the highest level of youth unemployment on record. That is a cruel fate to be inflicting on people leaving school, college and university. Instead of going on to get a job or training, they are being left to rot on the dole queue. The truth is that—just as we on this side of the House, along with numerous independent economists, warned—the Government’s attempts to cut too far and too fast have choked off the economic recovery, squeezing households and businesses and sending unemployment soaring, with the result that, as I said to the hon. Member for Dover (Charlie Elphicke), the Government are now forced to borrow £150 billion more than they had planned.
This lesson is being learned around the world, as over-ambitious austerity plans founder. Last year the OECD warned credit rating agencies which press for rapid fiscal consolidation but
“react negatively later, when consolidation leads to lower growth—which it often does.”
Sure enough, Standard & Poor’s decision earlier this year to downgrade nine of the eurozone’s 17 member states was accompanied by the warning that
“fiscal austerity alone risks becoming self-defeating.”
The International Monetary Fund’s sharp downward revisions of its global growth forecasts—including for the UK—for 2012 was accompanied by a call to “reconsider the pace” of fiscal consolidation. Indeed, the IMF’s chief economist has said:
“Substantial fiscal consolidation is needed, and debt levels must decrease. But it should be…a marathon rather than a sprint”
and cited the proverb
“slow and steady wins the race”.
Our economic performance did not have to be this way. We need only look across the Atlantic to see the benefits of a more balanced approach to deficit reduction, with the US now enjoying steady falls in unemployment and accelerating economic growth. Let me quote the opinion of Adam Posen of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. His forensic comparison of the US and UK experiences concluded:
“Fiscal policy…played an important role as well. Cumulatively, the UK government tightened fiscal policy by 3% more than the US government did…and this had a material impact on consumption. This was particularly the case because a large chunk of the fiscal consolidation in 2010 and in 2011 took the form of a VAT increase, which has a high multiplier for households.”
In other words, by hitting households as hard as they did, sapping confidence and sucking demand out of the economy, the Chancellor and his ready accomplice, the Chief Secretary, have got the UK stuck in the slow lane while other key players in the global economy are overtaking us.
Mr Graham Stuart
On the subject of others overtaking us, the hon. Lady will be aware that the right hon. Member for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (Mr Brown) became Finance Minister at roughly the same time as the Finance Minister in Australia, but whereas at a certain point the right hon. Gentleman lost the plot and spent money that this country could not afford, Australia paid down its national debt. Thus, when the financial credit crunch came, Australia was able to stimulate its economy, whereas this country had overspent in the good times and was not able to do so.
Rachel Reeves
Between 1997 and 2007 this country’s debt ratio fell from 42.5% to 36% of GDP, so the debt burden fell; in 2007, our debt-to-GDP ratio was lower than when we came to power in 1997.
What hope did the Chief Secretary and the Chancellor offer in this Budget for the future of our economy? The answer is precious little. The Government’s own Office for Budget Responsibility predicts another year of low growth ahead; it predicts just 0.8% growth in 2012, followed by 2% growth in 2013. That is well below what was promised when the Government took office. According to this morning’s forecasts from the Ernst and Young ITEM—Independent Treasury Economic Model—club, even those dire outlooks now seem optimistic. Ernst and Young predicts just 0.4% growth for 2012, followed by 1.5% growth the year after. Meanwhile, on any prediction, including the Government’s, we will still have at least 2 million unemployed people by the end of this Parliament.
Even those figures conceal deeper failures and more disturbing trends. Some may remember the Chancellor’s promise of a new economic model for Britain, based on lower levels of borrowing, and higher levels of saving and investment. In reality, the promised renaissance of business investment has been repeatedly postponed. An 8% increase in investment was promised for 2011, but investment actually fell by 2%. A further 10% increase was predicted for this year, but an increase of less than 1% is now forecast. The role of investment in driving growth for future years has been significantly revised down, too. Ernst and Young said this morning that business spending
“has picked up nicely in the US”
but that UK plcs remain “extremely reluctant” to invest. It continues:
“Consequently, the economy is bleeding cash into company coffers at an alarming rate…This haemorrhage is sapping the strength of the economy, keeping it on the critical list.”
They are not my words, but those of the Ernst and Young ITEM club.
Meanwhile, figures from the OBR reveal that the Government have increasingly become reliant on household consumption for their growth forecasts. That consumption is not being financed by growth in real disposable incomes, which, as I said, have stagnated and which the OBR confirms are set to stagnate for at least another two years. The household consumption growth is being funded by a fall in savings every year from now until 2016 and by a rise in total personal debt of almost 50% over the next few years; it will reach a staggering total of £2.12 trillion by the end of this Parliament.
Amendment of the Law
Graham Stuart Excerpts(12 years, 8 months ago)
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Stephen Mosley
Ultra-fast is, I think, the current term. Mr Deputy Speaker, I know that you have been involved with the Parliamentary Internet Communications and Technology Forum. We recently arranged a series of meetings with parliamentarians and industry representatives, including the UK chief executive officers of some the world’s leading IT businesses—for example, Facebook, Intel, IBM and Fujitsu, among many others.
The universal message emanating from the meetings was that the UK technology industry must be promoted by Government whenever possible, and that greater care is needed if the UK is to attract, train and retain the highly skilled individuals who will help our economy to grow. Specifically, five key recommendations were made. The first had to do with the broadband issue: the Government must speed up the roll-out of superfast broadband. I totally support that, which is why I am absolutely delighted to welcome the Chancellor’s commitment to investing more than £780 million in broadband infrastructure to make sure that Britain has the best superfast broadband network in Europe by 2015. I am also pleased about the Government’s commitment to start the roll-out of 4G mobile networks, with the spectrum auctions planned for later this year.
Mr Graham Stuart (Beverley and Holderness) (Con)
Does my hon. Friend agree that we must reverse the disastrous collapse in the number of graduates coming out of universities with computer science degrees, which took place over the last decade in which the previous Government were in power?
Stephen Mosley
It is funny that my hon. Friend should say that, because our group’s second recommendation was that the Government should increase investment in ICT in schools. I was pleased to hear the Chancellor highlight the importance of education in building our skills base, because if any industry hopes to compete and thrive, the fundamental basis is the skills base of the domestic work force. My right hon. Friend the Education Secretary recently announced a shake-up in the way that computing is taught in schools. That follows calls from industry and academia, who suggest that ICT in schools is too focused on the use of specific software packages, and not focused on the underlying technologies or on learning the computer programming skills that will help to encourage young people to develop their own products and be on the cutting edge.
Rebalancing the curriculum is a vital step, but there also needs to be greater emphasis on the quality of ICT teaching in schools, along with a concerted effort to champion future careers in the sector. I have already outlined the huge significance of IT for the wider UK economy, yet since 2002 there has been a 33% reduction in applications for computing degree courses. More must be done to encourage our young people into an ICT career if we are to reap all the potential benefits to our economy.
Youth Unemployment and Bank Bonuses
Graham Stuart Excerpts(12 years, 10 months ago)
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Rachel Reeves
People are not getting jobs at the moment not because they do not have skills but because the jobs are not available. In all our constituencies, five or 10 people are chasing every job. That is why unemployment is rising. Until the Government take responsibility for that, the numbers will get worse, not better.
The price that families struggling with the consequences of redundancy and young people forced to abandon their career plans pay is incalculable. We cannot go on like that. Maybe some hon. Members—we have already heard from many of them—greet the prospect of rising unemployment with a degree of fatalism, perhaps resignation. They may feel that the punishment being inflicted on innocent families and young people is the sad but inevitable consequence of austerity and economic adjustment. Indeed, as I said earlier, there is a grim familiarity about the figures, which bear a depressing resemblance to the record of previous Conservative Governments.
Mr Graham Stuart (Beverley and Holderness) (Con)
The hon. Lady talks about a grim familiarity. Does she acknowledge that every Labour Government in history ended with higher unemployment than they started with? After a 40% rise in youth unemployment under the previous Government, some humility is required on both sides of the House, but not least on hers.
Rachel Reeves
Unemployment has reached 3 million twice, both times under Conservative Governments. At the last election, unemployment was falling; today, it is rising.
Rachel Reeves
In the 1980s and early 1990s, unemployment reached 3 million. Was that because Conservative Governments were clearing up a Labour mess? Really? I think it was because of the policies that Conservative Governments always pursue—policies that hurt young people and put more people out of work. That is the reality of Conservative Governments.
Labour Members are not complacent. We do not say that it is inevitable, that it has got to happen and that 3 million unemployed is a price worth paying. Labour Members are not prepared to give up on young people and we urge the Government not to give up on them, either.
In the coalition agreement, the Government said that a fundamental goal would be to
“sustain the recovery and to protect jobs.”
Before the election, the Prime Minister told voters that jobs would be his top priority. He said:
“I understand if you leave people unemployed, and short term unemployment becomes long term, then it becomes a lifetime of unemployment. It’s a waste of life. I must stop it happening.”
He was right then, but he does nothing now. The Deputy Prime Minister said earlier this month that
“supporting people into work is my priority for 2012”.
He is right, yet he does nothing.
We must—and we will—hold the Government to their promises because we cannot allow the next generation to be denied the chance of expanded opportunities that has always been the promise of Britain.
Fuel Prices
Graham Stuart Excerpts(13 years ago)
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Mr Robin Walker (Worcester) (Con)
I congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for Harlow (Robert Halfon) on his passionate speech, on his many campaigns on this issue and on securing this debate, and I welcome the huge interest and support across the House for it. The price of fuel remains, week in, week out, one of the most important and pressing issues raised by people in Worcester. It is an issue on which I, like many other hon. Members, am determined to see real progress.
I wholeheartedly support today’s motion and was proud to put my name to it as a long-term advocate of fuel price stabilisers. I want to put forward one more argument for action that has not been sufficiently covered in this debate and I want to raise a couple of further concerns, which I hope the Minister will be able to respond to in her reply.
As my hon. Friend the Member for Cleethorpes (Martin Vickers) set out and as the hon. Member for East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow (Mr McCann) acknowledged, the Government have to pay attention to balancing the budget. The motion notes, however, that fuel duty revenues are lower now than they were in 2008 despite the fact that the level of taxation has increased since. In my view, that makes but understates the case for rethinking further increases. As I have argued in Westminster Hall debates, that case was admirably set out by the Office for Budget Responsibility when it first looked at, and then rejected, the idea of a fair fuel stabiliser. It concluded that although higher prices added to Government revenues in the short term, by increasing the take from fuel duty, their longer-term impact was to reduce Government revenue through the combination of discouraging usage and the wider negative impacts of high fuel costs on the economy. Although the OBR used this argument to reject the original plan for a stabiliser, I have said many times that the logic of its argument is that lower fuel duties could result in higher tax revenues, and I am happy to put that case again today.
We should look not only at the impact on fuel duty receipts themselves, substantial though they might be, but consider the effect of sky-high prices on business profits and thence corporation tax, their impact on the rate of inflation and thus the rate of increase in costs to Government in everything from wage inflation to benefit uprating. We should consider the depressing impact of high fuel costs on the whole economy and in particular on business and enterprise.
Mr Graham Stuart (Beverley and Holderness) (Con)
Does my hon. Friend agree that it is a central Conservative insight that we can lower the rate and up the take so that small companies in rural areas such as mine are able to do more work, earn more, pay more tax and keep the economy going?
Finance (No. 3) Bill
Graham Stuart Excerpts(13 years, 6 months ago)
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Mr Jones
That is a very good suggestion. That is one of the issues that could be included in the review. Do the Government honestly think that they can con my constituents and others and that a 1p reduction in petrol duty will really be a vote clincher for them? Late last Friday I was in the excellent Sainsbury’s in Pity Me in Durham, and I noted that customers who spent £70 on their groceries could get 5p a litre off their fuel. It is a deal offered by other supermarkets—I do not want to favour Sainsbury’s. Are those on the Treasury Bench really convinced that constituents will be conned by the 1p reduction, when the cost is being increased by 3p, and if they can get 5p a litre off when they spend more on extra groceries?
My hon. Friend the Member for Ilford South (Mike Gapes) made a good point, which I accept, about the differences in fuel prices in different parts of the country. I think that there is a case for part of the review looking at why fuel is priced differently across the country. I hasten to add that at the weekend, when I was in Worksop in Bassetlaw visiting my father, I went to a Sainsbury’s—it happened to be the supermarket there—and noticed that diesel was £1.38, although down here in London and in parts of Durham it is £1.42. Clearly the constituents of my hon. Friend the Member for Bassetlaw (John Mann) are getting a good deal from the Sainsbury’s in Worksop. These are the issues that could be looked at in a review.
Mr Graham Stuart (Beverley and Holderness) (Con)
The hon. Gentleman is speaking movingly about his desire to see regional variations in taxation. He was a highly distinguished Minister in the previous Government, so will he tell us how many representations he made to the then Chancellor of the Exchequer when his voice stood a real chance of making a difference?
Mr Jones
If the hon. Gentleman had been listening, he would know that I was not arguing for regional variations in fuel taxation. I was saying that if we are to have variations in fuel prices, which we already have, and if the Government are to introduce a derogation and cheap fuel for certain island constituencies, clearly buying off the Liberal Democrats, the effects on the economy need to be assessed. I would also argue that if that is to happen for some of those rural communities, it must also happen for parts of County Durham where having access to a car is not a luxury, but a necessity for getting into work along the A1 corridor to Newcastle and other places. The fact that the Government are also reducing the public subsidy that local government can give to bus companies means that in the next few months parts of my constituency will have no bus services whatsoever on some days of the week.
Helen Goodman
That is a powerful point. What happened then contrasts with the total lack of consultation by this Government.
Mr Graham Stuart
The hon. Lady mentioned the Government’s policy on rebalancing the economy. One of the most important elements is to reverse the disastrous loss of employment in manufacturing under the Labour Government. More than 1.5 million jobs were lost and—
Amendment of the Law
Graham Stuart Excerpts(13 years, 8 months ago)
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Mr Redwood
It is a good point. We have heard figures from the Government indicating that we export less to the BRIC countries combined than we do to Ireland, but we have a close relationship with Ireland and we are close neighbours. It is understandable that we export a lot to Ireland and it to us. That figure conceals one important point, which is that British business has probably been a little more active than it suggests, but for various reasons the larger British companies tend to go into India, Brazil and China and set up joint ventures or factories of their own there to service the local market. It is easier to service those markets in that way, for reasons that we need not go into in detail today, but I agree that it would be good if we exported more, and it would be good if we helped small and medium-sized enterprises that do not have the capability to set up factories on the other side of the world to export in their turn.
The devaluation that happened more than a year ago has given us one nasty result, which is a much higher inflation rate than comparable economies, but it has given us one pleasant result, which is that it is very easy to export out of a British base now because British industry is so much more competitive at the current level of the pound. We should have that on our side. Paradoxically, quite a bit of British business in the manufacturing sector is close to capacity, and those businesses are tending to put the prices up a bit to collect a little more revenue and improve their balance sheets because it is not that easy to expand turnover. That is where the things that the Chancellor is talking about are vital and need to be done speedily.
Britain needs to be able to put up factories more quickly and get them into use more quickly. It needs to define the skilled engineers and the other skilled individuals who want to work in an industrial setting rather than in an advisory or City setting, and then expand the capability of their companies as a result. Modern manufacturing requires a very high degree of skills input, talented people and good management. It does not require so many people to operate machines because really good manufacturing now is highly automated. It needs the precision of expensive machinery. Indeed, the easiest way to compete out of a German or a British base is to have highly automated plant, so labour costs are a rather unimportant part of the total cost. The intellectual property content, the skill content and the plant and equipment content are much higher, but they are affordable with a quality product.
Mr Graham Stuart (Beverley and Holderness) (Con)
Further to my right hon. Friend’s points, a director from JCB gave evidence to the Select Committee on Education yesterday and said that he had 57 vacancies for engineers that he cannot fill order to ensure that JCB’s products remain globally competitive, reduce energy usage and so on. That, unfortunately, is a legacy of too many years in which we have not delivered the technical, vocational, practical education that is required. Is my right hon. Friend, like me, enthusiastic about the Government taking forward the programme from the Wolf review and supporting Lord Baker with his university technical colleges?
Mr Redwood
I am happy with those proposals. The Government are clearly on the right lines and I hope there will be cross-party agreement that we need to raise our game at skills, training and education, particularly in engineering, pharmaceuticals, chemistry and so forth, where we have an advantage and can have a much bigger advantage if we do more. Yes, we need to review how easy it is to buy or build a factory and how easy it is to equip it. Anything that can be done to lower the effect of tax rate on business will make Britain a much more attractive place to be.
As hon. Members know, I take the view that if we set lower rates, we normally collect a lot more revenue. If we want that kind of growth rate, the lower the realistic rate that we can set, the more revenue growth and the more overall growth we will have. It would be a great tragedy to abort the recovery in certain sectors because the tax rate was too high. I am pleased to see the progress on corporation tax. We need to see the details of some of the individual tax schemes and how the carbon tax rebate would work. If we went ahead as trailblazers in Britain and set a high carbon price, we would price our energy-intensive business out of Britain into a less clean or less acceptable venue. It is important that the rebates and discounts are properly thought through, so that at a time when the Government are trying to promote more industry, they are not taxing it too heavily.
Sammy Wilson
I am a bit miffed, because I wanted to use that point later in my speech, so I will have to scribble it out. When we look at some of the issues, whether they are the delays, the amount of money being put in, the offsetting of increases in taxation when some tax cuts have been made, the regulations or the consultation that has still to take place with Europe to see whether we can reduce red tape, we have to ask whether the predictions for future growth based on the supply-side measures in the Budget are as fragile as the autumn predictions that were wiped out by a fall of snow. If that is how fragile the predictions are, then I have concerns.
There is another side to the coin, because not only do we have to increase the productive potential of the economy, but people must be willing to purchase the goods that can be produced, and aggregate demand can be made up of several different factors. The Government have already ruled out one for very good reasons, and I accept that the deficit has to be reduced. I may have some issues about how quickly it is being reduced, but the one thing we do know is that Government spending is not going to take up the slack that already exists in the economy.
Consumer spending is not going to take up the slack, either, because the Chancellor made it quite clear that he would not make any tax giveaways. Indeed, if one looks at what he said about the indexation of direct taxes, one finds that he has now built automatic increases into the tax system for the next four years. There will not be discretion on a year-to-year basis; inflationary increases are now built into the tax system.
That leaves investment demand and exports, and it seems that the Chancellor is emphasising the role of exports. Given that over the past year and a half the exchange rate has fallen by 20%, our export growth is still one of the weakest among the OECD countries. Investment might improve competitiveness, but the only direct measure that the Chancellor has produced today is the export credit guarantee. I have quickly looked through the Red Book to see how much the guarantee involves, and I cannot get a figure, but that is the only measure to increase the one component of aggregate demand on which the Chancellor is relying to improve growth in the economy.
If we look at the supply-side measures and the lack of demand-side measures, we have to ask, “Can we really be confident that this is a Budget for growth?” The conclusion that I come to—not because I want to take a pot-shot at the Government, but because I want to get in behind the figures to see whether the hope being held out is genuine—is that I am left with some concerns.
Mr Graham Stuart
The hon. Gentleman is right to be sombre because of the situation the country is in. The Chancellor mentioned what is happening in other countries, and we are in a fragile position because of the appalling inheritance. The growth predictions, however, are no longer the predictions of a politician; they are the predictions of the OBR. We are in a very fragile state, and it is no wonder that predictions change, but the prediction is that over this Parliament this country’s growth will be higher than the EU average. That, considering where we started, would not mean golden times, but it would be a solid achievement.
Sammy Wilson
Of course, the earlier growth figures were also OBR-ified, if one wants to use that term, yet they did not prove to be realisable over a six-month period. We cannot simply rely on the assurances that the OBR has looked at the figures and thinks they are okay, as there could well be a revision. I am merely pointing to some aspects within the Budget document that give me cause for concern as to whether these growth figures can be achieved. If they cannot, there are implications for the deficit, for employment, for living standards, and for the ability to provide public services in future.
Let me turn to some of the measures that apply to Northern Ireland. As we heard in an earlier intervention, tomorrow morning an announcement will be made about the corporation tax proposals for Northern Ireland. I am waiting to see that. I have no doubt that the ability of the Northern Ireland Administration to reduce corporation tax could be a useful lever. As a Unionist—I know that the hon. Member for Dundee East (Stewart Hosie) will probably be totally appalled that anyone from a devolved Administration should say this—I do not want to see huge fiscal powers devolved to Northern Ireland. I am part of the United Kingdom, I want to remain part of the United Kingdom, and I wish fiscal powers to stay part of the United Kingdom.
There has been a groundswell of opinion for some variation in corporation tax; indeed, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland has been very enthusiastic about it. However, there is no point in devolving corporation tax if the price tag attached is such that it savages public expenditure, which has already suffered a huge cut as a result of the Budget decisions made last October. There would be a gestation period between a reduction in corporation tax and the impact on jobs on the ground, whereas any cut in public spending or in the block grant would take immediate effect. There would be no increase in private sector employment, together with an immediate decrease in public sector employment, and that cannot be good for economic recovery.
I fear that the figures in the document that we have tomorrow will be neither a fair reflection of the cost of devolving corporation tax to Northern Ireland nor the kind of opportunity and offer that would be attractive to the Northern Ireland Administration. We will want to see that the Treasury and the Government have not made a savage reduction in the block grant even though it bears no relation to what the real cost of devolving corporation tax might be.