Farming and Inheritance Tax

Geoffrey Clifton-Brown Excerpts

Wednesday 4th December 2024 Commons Chamber

[James Murray]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right to highlight the decimation of businesses during the Conservatives’ time in office. Businesses across the economy need stability, public finances on a firm footing and investment in our public services. That is what businesses across the country need to invest for the future and grow.

[Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (North Cotswolds) (Con)]

I am very grateful to the hon. Gentleman for giving way. He is a Treasury Minister. May I suggest that some of the disparity between the Treasury figures and those of other reputable bodies representing agricultural interests is because of land values? Average values for ordinary land in the Cotswolds are now £15,000 an acre. Will he accede to the request of my right hon. Friend the Member for Salisbury (John Glen), a former Chief Secretary to the Treasury, and publish an up-to-date impact assessment on how many farms this tax will affect?

[James Murray]

A lot of data has already been published. I mentioned the Chancellor’s letter to the Treasury Committee, and further details on the impact will be published alongside the draft legislation in the normal way. I suggest that the hon. Gentleman reads the letter to the Select Committee. As he and the his right hon. Friend will know, the impacts are typically published at the time of draft legislation. That is the normal process. Indeed, it was the norm under the previous Government.

--- Later in debate ---

[Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (North Cotswolds) (Con)]

I declare my interest as a working farmer and a chartered surveyor.

When I drive through my constituency, I am always reminded that farmers are the most underrated and essential workers in the rural Cotswolds and many other rural areas. Many have worked the land for generations, and I think in particular of my constituent, Nigel—I will avoid his surname to avoid press intrusion—who is still farming at the age of 93. This Government forget that farming is not a hobby. It is farmers who wake up at the crack of dawn to ensure that the rest of the population have food on their table, who clear the roads when trees fall on them or they are blocked by snow, and who plant trees and wild flowers to ensure that our biodiversity is protected for future generations. The hard-working farming community was dealt a massive blow by this Labour Government’s Budget in October. As my right hon. Friend the Member for Louth and Horncastle (Victoria Atkins) on the Front Bench says, this is about not only the IHT changes, but the national insurance contributions, the change in minimum wage, the tax on fertiliser and an up to 211% tax hike for double cab pick-ups. All those extra costs take money out of a business.

I know that the Chancellor and the Prime Minister have both stated from the Dispatch Box that the IHT changes will not affect the vast majority of farms, and the Treasury has forecast that only 27% of all farms will be affected. However, as the Minister for Food Security and Rural Affairs knows, DEFRA’s own forecasts suggest that two thirds of farms will be affected by this destructive policy, and the National Farmers Union has recently published an analysis of the 27% figure, which found that it

“materially underestimated the true proportion”,

with around 75% of commercial farms to be affected. That is due to the Treasury using figures that are based on the 2021-22 agricultural property relief data, which is not representative of the current situation.

[Andy MacNae (Rossendale and Darwen) (Lab)]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown]

We have already had an exchange in interventions, so I ask the hon. Gentleman to first let me say this about land prices. I disagree with the point about land prices being inflated. We cannot buck the market. It is not the policies that inflate land prices; it is people coming in from outside agriculture who are putting up the prices.

[Andy MacNae]

The NFU said that farms may be affected by the policy—that is the language that it used—taking no account of estate planning or any other mitigations that people might use. As the Secretary of State said, people take action in the event of change. The NFU has ignored that in quoting its statistics.

[Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown]

If the hon. Gentleman will just listen to my speech and the examples that I am about to give with an open mind, he might change his mind.

The Treasury does not include in its figures the impact of business property relief claims; that also fits under the same £1 million ceiling. According to the NFU, 40% of farmers also claim BPR on machinery and livestock, which makes the £1 million ceiling even more restrictive. As shown in an earlier exchange, the Government have failed to complete a proper impact assessment of the changes to APR and BPR on the rural economy. The hon. Member for Rossendale and Darwen (Andy MacNae) might be interested to hear that the CLA modelling has shown that the changes will lead to 5% of rural businesses closing, with up to 190,000 jobs lost from the rural economy, some in very remote areas, and it will be difficult to replace them.

[Jon Pearce (High Peak) (Lab)]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown]

I do not want to give way to too many people, but I will to the hon. Gentleman.

[Jon Pearce]

The hon. Gentleman mentions 5% of agricultural businesses being at risk. Is it not true that under the last Government, between 2019 and 2024, there was an 8% reduction in agricultural businesses in his constituency of North Cotswolds, thanks to the policies of his party when they were in government?

[Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown]

That was over a much longer period, but these changes will take effect much quicker. I can assure the hon. Gentleman that once the tax starts to bite, those jobs will be lost quite quickly. To put that into perspective, the OBR has predicted that only £590 million a year is due to be raised from this destructive policy. This Budget gave the Department for Work and Pensions a whopping £275.8 billion a year. The revenue raised from this tax would be a mere 0.2% of that total amount.

Over the past few weeks, I have had countless emails from worried farmers about their future, and I was lucky enough to meet some of them when they came up to London to protest recently. They varied in age from their late 20s to their early 90s, and it was a valuable meeting. Many had never protested in their lives, but they have chosen to use their voices now when their livelihoods are under threat. Again, to avoid press intrusion, I want to cite the case of David and his younger son, whose farm in the North Cotswolds has 265 acres, a suckler herd of 200 and a small flock of pedigree poll Dorset sheep. They have a range of modern and traditional buildings and have already diversified those. When they include their house, they estimate that their business is worth £5.5 million. David would be entitled to about £1.5 million in relief, and after the 50% relief from inheritance tax, with an effective rate that the Exchequer Secretary went through, that would leave him with a taxable amount of £800,000 on his death. The Minister might like to listen to this: that farmer only earns in total, on average, about £40,000 a year. How on earth is he expected to pay the tax and live on that £40,000? He will not. The farmer will have to sell up and the farm will not be available to future generations.

[Pete Wishart]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown]

It is the last time.

[Pete Wishart]

Would the Tories not have a lot more credibility on this issue if they owned up to the disaster that was Brexit? It opened us up to cheap imports, increased costs for farmers and put up barriers and obstacles to trading. Would they not have much more credibility in attacking the Government on this if they admitted that that was an absolute disaster for farming communities?

[Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown]

If the hon. Gentleman wants to call an Adjournment debate on Brexit, he is entitled to do so.

I was talking about the serious issue of how this farmer and many others up and down the country will be able to afford the tax—they will not. I understand that the Government have suggested that farmers should be forward-planning and gifting their farms to their children now, which would mean that they could avoid the tax in future. However, for many farmers, that is not an option.

I will take another constituent of mine, who farms near Fosse Way. He is still working on his farm at 93. He did not retire at 65 like many of us, but has kept working the long, hard days, as he did during the second world war, to ensure that we have enough food on our table. He has spent years planning to ensure that his grandchildren could inherit and take over the farming business. Instead, under this Government, his plan has gone completely out of the window, because he will have to live until he is 101 if he is to avoid the tax altogether.

The only option facing many farmers across the country is to sell off their land and stop farming. Those farmers have worked the land for generations. Their children will have seen their parents take over and will have expected to take over when they can, but now face a future of uncertainty. The Government fail to answer the question of what kind of person will buy the land when it goes on the market. It will not be the ones who have farmed the land all their lives. It will likely be foreign investors and hedge fund managers. They will not have generations of knowledge of how to work the land and will likely take prime arable land out of production, as they could possibly make more money from alternatives.

When I worked on the previous Public Accounts Committee—I urge the Minister to listen and to pledge that he will do this—I managed to obtain a commitment from the last Government that the food security index would be published in Parliament every year. Will the Minister give that pledge so we can continue doing that? That way we can see what effect the tax, the selling off of farms and taking land out of production is having and whether our food production is dropping.

I end with a plea to the Government to go back to the drawing board. I understand that a technical tax consultation on the changes is due to be published early in 2025. I urge the Government to use this time to talk to farmers and professionals across the country and find a way that will ensure that farmers such as Nigel do not lose their life’s work to the taxman. Some obvious alleviations and changes to APR and BPR would be to raise the threshold, so that more smaller farm owners and rental farmers would be exempt, and to have a longer transitioning period. That will help farmers like 93-year-old Nigel. However, the best outcome would be to reverse the policy altogether. Farming is under threat. I do not want to see the fabric of our countryside destroyed for future generations.

[Several hon. Members rose—]

Fiscal Rules

Geoffrey Clifton-Brown Excerpts

Monday 28th October 2024 Commons Chamber

[Darren Jones]

We made a commitment to delivering 1.5 million homes, and we will do just that. On the second part of the question, the whole purpose of the national infrastructure strategy and the overlapping multi-year spending reviews is to give investors and suppliers confidence that when the Government say something will be delivered, it will, so they can invest and plan on that basis, to help improve the British economy. Frankly, they are starting from a position of complete dismay because of the failed promises of the last Government; we will rectify that.

[Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (North Cotswolds) (Con)]

If we could stick with the here and now, what the Chancellor announced caused the bond markets to move almost immediately by almost 0.5%. That means that interest rates will stay higher for longer. Will the right hon. Gentleman confirm that that will cause hardship to today’s mortgage payers and tomorrow’s generation of taxpayers, because they will have to repay this extra debt?

[Darren Jones]

What I can confirm is that what affected interest rates and mortgage payments so severely was the chaotic behaviour of the hon. Gentleman’s party in government before the last election. That is why we have had to legislate to make sure that if they ever returned to Government, they could not behave in similar ways. We are taking a responsible approach to public spending, as I have set out today, and we will never return to the activities of his party in government.

Autumn Statement Resolutions

Geoffrey Clifton-Brown Excerpts

Wednesday 22nd November 2023 Commons Chamber

[Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (The Cotswolds) (Con)]

Thank you, Mr Deputy Speaker, for letting me catch your eye in the debate. I am delighted to follow the hon. Member for Hemsworth (Jon Trickett). A long time ago, we were paired—most hon. Members in the Chamber will have forgotten that we had an official pairing system—which I am afraid dates him and me.

Many interesting points have been made, but one of the most interesting things I have heard is the number of Opposition Members who have been complaining about the level of the tax burden. I will assume that when they produce their general election manifestos, each will say that they will reduce the burden of tax on the people of this country. I will bet you a bottle of something nice, Mr Deputy Speaker, that when the Labour party manifesto comes out, we will see a higher fiscal burden on the people of this country than there would be under a Conservative Government.

The hon. Member for Wallasey (Dame Angela Eagle) was dead right, and reinforced the point made by my right hon. Friend the Member for Witham (Priti Patel), that fiscal drag is one of the main reasons why the tax burden has gone up so much. The top rate of tax comes in at just £50,270 and, as the hon. Lady made clear in her speech, progressively over the years, an increasing number of people will fall into that. Quite large numbers of constituents who are working hard on fairly modest wages—medium-paid police, medium-paid teachers and medium-paid people in the health service—will suddenly be thrust into the top rate of tax. As my right hon. Friend said, people know how to spend their own money far better than the state does. We want a progressive look at that to see what can be done, perhaps in the Budget.

This autumn statement will be remembered for two key events. One was full expensing made permanent, at a cost £11 billion—a big relief announced today. The second one, for individuals, is the cut in class 2 and class 4 national insurance, amounting to £10 billion. Those are two big measures. I warmly welcome the measures to boost growth, employment, productivity and, above all, investment. Boosting investment will help the long-standing productivity problem in this country. There are measures to boost growth, reduce debt and, above all, see inflation come down in the way that it has.

Inflation is a tax on every single person in this country, every business and the public sector. In short, it is very damaging to the economy as a whole, and it is good to see it come down from over 11% to just under 5% in a year. We look forward to the Chancellor’s predictions of it coming down to 2.8% next year. Even better, by the end of next year or the beginning of 2025, it may come down to the Bank of England’s target level of 2%. That is a good thing to happen to the economy.

What have we done in this autumn statement? We have cut taxes for 27 million working people from January, by reducing the rate of national insurance contributions. We have cut and simplified tax for 2 million self-employed—I warmly welcome that, as I have a lot of self-employed people in my constituency. We have cut business rates, by freezing the small business multiplier yet again, saving the average shop £1,650. That will benefit a lot of shops in my small towns in the Cotswolds. As I said, we have increased the national living wage to £11.44 an hour, up from about £5.50 when we took power in 2010. That is a terrific achievement and will benefit 2.7 million workers. One measure that will help in the Cotswolds is increasing the local housing allowance, because rents are high, and the difference between housing benefit and what people have to pay in the market is large. Having an elderly population, I am delighted that the Government intend to keep their promise on the triple lock.

I am delighted to follow my Chair on the Public Accounts Committee, the hon. Member for Hackney South and Shoreditch (Dame Meg Hillier). She recounted in her wise speech a lot of measures that we have heard in Committee hearings, which she and I attend diligently twice a week—a terrific workload. I absolutely agree with her on skills, as others have mentioned. Time after time in our hearings we have heard about skills shortages in certain sectors—IT programmers, digital collection, project managers and complex procurers—hampering the public sector in carrying out particularly big projects. I am delighted, therefore, by what the Chancellor said today about how our youngsters’ levels of education have increased so much within the G7.

I had a good visit the other day to see the acting deputy head of Cirencester College. His is one of the leading colleges in the country for the Government’s new T-levels. He now teaches 13, up from 10. His student numbers are full to the gunwales at 3,300, and he cannot take any more unless he has new buildings. It may interest the House that he warmly welcomes the Government’s new proposals on advanced British standards, because the combination of vocational and technical training produces more rounded pupils who go on to do better at university. The Government have some imaginative ideas in education, and I know that my teachers in the Cotswolds will warmly welcome the record resources going into our schools through the statement.

There was one thing missing in the autumn statement and I am sorry but I am going to detain the House for a little while on it, because it is so important. I will go through it in a little detail. I asked the Chancellor why tourist tax measures were not included in the autumn statement. On leaving the EU, Britain had the chance to become the only European country where 450 million EU residents could shop tax free. I warmly welcome the newly appointed Minister on the Front Bench, the Economic Secretary to the Treasury, my hon. Friend the Member for Hitchin and Harpenden (Bim Afolami). I think he would agree with me on this. If he does, let us get on and do something about it, because businesses believe that this new market could be worth an estimated £10 billion in two years.

At the time of leaving the EU, the Treasury considered the option of extended tax-free shopping to EU visitors but decided it would cost too much. Britain ended the existing tax-free shopping not only for EU visitors, but for shoppers from around the world. That had consequences. By ending tax-free shopping for non-EU visitors, Britain is losing out on a multibillion-pound market where it was by far the leading destination in Europe for tax-free shopping. In 2019, Britain accounted for 45% of all tax-free shopping done in France, Italy, Spain and Britain combined, but it has missed out on this potentially huge new shopping-led tourist market which only Britain could have benefited from because we were the country that had left the EU.

Let us look at the data on the opportunity for Britain if the Government had chosen to extend tax-free shopping to EU visitors and visitors from around the world. We are now seeing something of the impact of allowing British visitors to the EU to shop tax free: our people going to the EU and shopping tax free, which they do in abundance. In the first full year of travel, in 2022, British shoppers spent around £500 million on tax-free shopping in the EU. This year, the figure is estimated to double, so that our people are going out and benefiting EU countries potentially to the tune of £1 billion. The Association of International Retail has made a very rough estimate, from the behaviour of British tax-free shoppers, of what could happen were Britain to offer tax-free shopping to EU visitors. The EU has six times more people than Britain, so if that level was replicated by the EU shoppers we allowed to shop tax free in this country, the £1 billion of tax-free shopping that our people do in Europe could be turned into up to £6 billion.

The most recent forecasting reports are truly staggering and I ask my hon. Friend on the Front Bench to listen to them. The Centre for Economics and Business Research builds on a previous report by the respected Oxford Economics. The two reports forecast that introducing tax-free shopping would boost visitor numbers by between 1.6 million and 1.7 million, increase spending by between £1.7 billion and £2.8 billion, and increase GDP by between £4.1 billion and £9.1 billion annually. I cannot understand why the Treasury will not consider this measure. The difference between the two forecasts is mainly due to timing, with the Oxford Economics study released in October 2022 and the CEBR study published a little later, in July 2023.

When the Government are looking for growth measures, why has the Treasury dismissed this opportunity so quickly, without any comprehensive cost-benefit analysis? Ministers have told us time after time that the Treasury wrongly assumes—those are my words—that tax-free shopping produces little or no behavioural change by international travellers, either in choosing to come to the UK or their spending levels. That is just so counterintuitive it is unbelievable. The Treasure forecasts a £2 billion cost in refunding VAT, with little or no benefit in terms of additional numbers or spending—again, completely counterintuitive.

The Treasury constantly repeats the claim that evidence shows that tax-free shopping is not a significant reason for people to come to this country, but the actual figures show that that is complete nonsense. Out there in the market, retail levels in London, for instance, are roughly back where they were in 2019, before the pandemic, while in other European centres, such as Paris and Madrid, they are up by 300% and 200% respectively. What is also happening is that the high spenders, people from America, the middle east and China, are not coming here to do their high-level shopping, to the disbenefit of the high-level retailers. Burberry, for example, is shifting its investment away from the UK and on to the continent. Those are some of the things that are happening out there, and they are not of benefit to us.

Why, then, was the OBR not asked to look at extending tax-free shopping to the EU? Why was it not asked to assess the policy until after the decision had been made? This meant that it had no remit to assess the forecasts of EU spending on the basis of which the decision was made. It strikes me as entirely sensible to call for an independent review of that decision, because the evidence is now undermining the Treasury’s forecast in a big way, and because those particular forecasts were never assessed by the OBR.

I am watching you very carefully, Madam Deputy Speaker, and I will wind up my speech now. Let me just repeat what I said in my question to the Chancellor. Our citizens benefit European and other countries by shopping duty free abroad, but we do not extend the same facility to shoppers who want to spend a lot of money in this country. I implore Treasury Ministers to commission an independent report as soon as possible to establish whether what a number of large businesses are saying—do not just take it from me—is true, because we in this country could be losing out in a big way.

[Several hon. Members rose—]

Autumn Statement

Geoffrey Clifton-Brown Excerpts

Wednesday 22nd November 2023 Commons Chamber

[Jeremy Hunt]

What the Prime Minister wanted to do then is what he has delivered as Prime Minister, which was to find a way to deliver extra funding to the NHS. What we as Conservatives believe is that taxing the economy more lightly will lead to higher growth, meaning that we can fund our public services better.

[Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (The Cotswolds) (Con)]

I am sure that the people of the Cotswolds will welcome enormously many of the measures in this statement, but can I just mention one subject that is dear to my heart, the tourist tax? There was no mention in my right hon. Friend’s excellent statement of the tourist tax. British tourists going abroad spend billions of pounds, benefiting those countries, yet the figures show that we actively discourage high-spending tourists from coming from abroad to benefit our shops and hospitality venues.

[Jeremy Hunt]

I reassure my hon. Friend that we want to do everything possible to make our tourism and retail industry competitive. We want to encourage international visitors. We changed policy on this issue a year ago because it cost around £2.5 billion a year and we did not think we could afford to continue it, but we are looking again at the numbers in the light of the most recent data and we can see what has happened to comparative shops in Paris and Milan. We will review this to see if it is still that expensive, and I hope that it is not.

Tax-free Shopping for International Visitors

Geoffrey Clifton-Brown Excerpts

Thursday 7th September 2023 Westminster Hall

[Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (The Cotswolds) (Con)]

I beg to move,

That this House has considered tax-free shopping for international visitors.

I thank you, Dr Huq, and Mr Speaker very much for granting me this opportunity to bring before the House the important subject of tax-free shopping—both VAT reclaim and duty-free shopping—for international visitors to this country. I also thank my hon. Friend the Minister, to whom I am grateful for turning up on this hot afternoon when I am sure she would much rather be doing something else. I am delighted to have the support of colleagues from throughout the country on this campaign. Of course, this issue affects not only London—it affects London greatly—but cities and tourist hubs across the UK, shopping destinations, cultural venues and the major regional airports.

This is an important debate on an issue I have campaigned on for the past few years following the Government’s decision to end tax-free shopping for international visitors when we left the EU. We are now the only major European country that does not have tax-free shopping, and the British economy is missing out as a result. In fact, the United Nations World Tourism Organisation barometer shows that Britain’s post-pandemic recovery in visitor numbers is the worst of all major European countries.

It is important at the start of the debate to respond to the idea that such a scheme would not benefit the British people. A study by Oxford Economics showed that restoring tax-free shopping would directly create a staggering 78,000 new jobs up and down the UK, possibly add as much as £4.1 billion to UK GDP, and result in—we believe—a net positive £350 million each year for His Majesty’s Treasury. In my speech, I will go into more detail and examine what the data suggests on the opportunities for economic growth from reintroducing tax-free shopping and VAT reclaim for foreign visitors.

Before we review the figures, I make it clear that my sole ask today of my hon. Friend, which I have to say would be almost cost-free, is for the Treasury to commission an independent assessment through the Office for Budget Responsibility or a respected audit firm—so that the Treasury believes it when it gets the results—of the full economic effect of tax-free shopping on the UK figures and all the figures that are available.

I believe the Government’s current position is based on inaccurate and incomplete Treasury figures that say that the cost of tax-free shopping would be £2 billion a year in refunded VAT. To highlight briefly how inaccurate those figures are, that calculation was reached by overestimating VAT refunds to UK shoppers by £600 million and excluding any tax revenue from increased spending by extra tourists. I therefore urge the Government to reconsider their objections to tax-free shopping which, as I say, I believe are based on inaccurate figures. We need an independent review to consider the topic so that we do not miss out on what could be a hugely positive and almost instantaneous win for the UK economy.

On 31 December 2020, the UK ended its tax-free shopping schemes for non-EU visitors and did not extend the schemes to EU visitors after the UK left the EU. The Government’s reasoning for that decision was the estimated cost of extending tax-free shopping to EU residents. Incidentally, all EU countries refund VAT on goods purchased by non-EU visitors—those visitors get the VAT refunded on purchases on the high streets and at duty-free shops in airports. Critically, Britain is therefore now 20% more expensive for shopping than any EU destination.

As we know, the entire economy was badly hit by the covid-19 pandemic and the wide shutdown of society during lockdown. Some of our hardest-hit industries were the tourism, culture and leisure, and hospitality sectors, which, owing to the very nature of their businesses, were unable to adapt easily to the hard lockdown rules, the impact of international restrictions, and reduced travel and tourism.

Now, thankfully, the pandemic is over. We have seen tourists return to the UK to enjoy the cultural sites in London, travel to our other great cities across our great country, and visit our picturesque towns and villages—including tens of thousands of visitors, I am glad to say, to my constituency of the Cotswolds. Sadly, however, our tourist industry recovery has not been as strong as that of some of our European neighbours.

All the real trading data from 2022, as international travel resumed, consistently undermines the Treasury’s forecast, which is that tax-free shopping would have little impact on visitor numbers and spending. The actual data on visitor numbers from 2022 and early 2023 show that ending tax-free shopping has had a significant negative impact on the behaviour of international travellers. Many choose to visit the UK, but unfortunately the really high spenders travel to Europe, because it is 20% cheaper to do their luxury goods shopping there.

For example, in 2022, spending by US visitors to the UK was back to pre-2019 pandemic levels, but in France, Spain and Italy it was double. In quarter 1 of 2023, US visitor spending was still just at 2019 levels in the UK, but in France and Spain it was around three times as much as 2019. Unfortunately, the differential is widening. Similarly, spending by Gulf Co-operation Council visitors to the UK in 2022 was around 65% of 2019 levels, whereas in Italy and Spain it was one and a half times the 2019 levels and in France it was double.

Brexit was an opportunity to create change in our economy that truly benefits the UK—creating new opportunities for growth for our innovative and internationally renowned retail, tourism and hospitality sectors. Instead, the EU is enjoying a Brexit bonus at Britain’s expense. Unfortunately, we have a double whammy: British shoppers joining other international visitors to shop tax-free in the EU, not in the UK, but not the same level of increased spending here as in other European countries. British shoppers now spend £1 billion on shopping tax-free in the EU, not here. If tax-free shopping was reinstated, Britain would be the only major European economy where 447 million EU residents could shop tax-free, which would create a huge new tourist market. Britain is missing out on a £1 billion Brexit bonus—a real opportunity for Brexit growth.

HMT did not forecast that that many visitors would be diverted completely from visiting the UK in favour of EU destinations. At the Government’s request, many businesses submitted actual evidence to HMT, in confidence, on the impact of ending tax-free shopping. The submissions show without a doubt that British businesses have suffered hundreds of millions of pounds in lost sales since 2022, and they see it getting worse, as more and more international travellers realise that they cannot shop tax-free in Britain.

In June 2023, the business improvement district for London’s west end, the New West End Company, which my hon. Friend the Member for Cities of London and Westminster (Nickie Aiken) knows well, surveyed its member businesses. More than half—54%—said that they were reviewing their long-term capital investment programmes to take account of the fall in the relative performance of their west end stores compared with their stores in continental Europe. More than one fifth—22%—are considering closing their London stores and relocating to mainland Europe. That is an example of how the UK is losing out.

HM Treasury forecasts that allowing 415 million EU residents to shop tax-free in Britain would generate only 50,000 additional trips annually—0.2% of the 24 million EU visitors in 2019. By the same logic, 66 million British residents now being able to shop tax-free in the EU would generate only an additional 9,000 trips. That is simply not credible. The reality is that in 2022 around 48,000 British people claimed VAT refunds in the EU, worth more than half a billion pounds. In 2023, that figure has more than doubled. We estimate that more than 1 million British residents will spend more than £1 billion on tax-free shopping in the EU, but not in the UK. That is one more proof that the Treasury has out-of-date forecasts.

On 3 August, along with my right hon. Friend the Member for Ashford (Damian Green), I co-signed a letter to the Chancellor highlighting the most recent forecasting report from leading economics consultancy Cebr, the Centre for Economics and Business Research. Its figures were built on an earlier study by Oxford Economics. The two reports were staggering. Cebr forecast additional visitor numbers of between 1.6 million and 1.7 million into this country if the measures were reinstalled, and increased spending of £1.7 billion to £2.8 billion. They each forecast that the GDP of the UK could increase by between £4.1 billion and £9.1 billion annually.

I note that the Treasury forecast is just an extra 50,000 visitors. The slight difference between the data of the Oxford Economics and Cebr forecasts is due to timing, with the former’s report released in October 2022 and the latter’s published in July 2023. However, we now have real consumer behaviour and spending data. By contrast with the up-to-date findings from Cebr, the Treasury’s own figures, on which the Government are making their decisions, come from 2020 estimates. I say to the Minister that the data is quite out of date and so low that it considerably reduces the estimate for visitor numbers and spend.

The Minister recently wrote to me saying that the Government were concerned that the findings of the Oxford Economics study did not match those of the OBR, particularly on the expected number of visitors as a result of introducing tax-free shopping. As I just said, the Oxford Economics forecast is an extra 1.6 million visitors, whereas the OBR forecast is 50,000. However, the Oxford Economics forecasts are being proved right by the real data from businesses that is now coming in, and the OBR figure is being proved significantly wrong.

All the data coming in clearly shows that the reason why the Treasury does not recognise the figure from Oxford Economics is not because the Oxford Economics forecast is wrong but because the OBR forecast is out of date. The Government are understandably acting on figures from the Treasury that they deem to be reliable. To assess the figures and bring some finality to the debate, I wrote to the OBR in May asking whether it could examine the costings and benefits related to tax-free shopping, both for VAT reclaim and duty-free shopping. Unfortunately, I am yet to receive a full response.

Chinese travellers are the biggest spenders of all, and in the last year Chinese visitors spent $258 billion—almost twice as much as visitors from the USA, who are the second biggest spenders at $135 billion—and they have the biggest potential for growth in the UK. Shopping is their No. 1 priority. Ending tax-free shopping in Britain is closing the door on the most important market for the international visitor economy. From 2009 to 2019, I was heavily involved in growing the number of Chinese visitors to the UK from 130,000 to 800,000, which is almost as many as France has. It was largely due to that increase in high-spending Chinese visitors that overall international spending pre-pandemic increased by 60%, from £17.6 billion to £26.4 billion.

The figures are significant. In 2019, some 800,000 Chinese visitors made up 5% of the 16 million non-EU visitors to the UK, but accounted for a staggering 32% of all tax-free shopping in the UK, spending around £1 billion. Of course, the Chinese were not travelling in 2022 because they were still locked down, but a survey of Chinese who had previously shopped in Europe showed that Britain had dropped from the second favourite European destination in 2019, just below France, to the least popular of all major European countries. In 2022, 75% visited France but only a tiny 42% visited the UK.

The Minister has quite rightly been asking for real evidence on the ground; I will give it to her now. Evidence from Heathrow airport shows that Chinese visitor numbers in July 2023 were at 88% of their 2019 levels, but spending in the shops at Heathrow was at just 33%. The Chinese are coming to the UK, but they are not spending money without the option of VAT reclaim.

There is a common perception that tax-free shopping affects only Oxford Street, Bond Street and the west end; however, this issue affects the whole United Kingdom. That is why the campaign has such wide and growing support, not just from colleagues throughout the country in this House but from major airports, hoteliers, cultural institutions and companies. The amounts spent outside London are significant for local economies—for example, Edinburgh, Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow and Leeds together accounted for £225 million of tax-free sales in 2019.

The direct impact of all this is on retail sales, but there is also a wider impact on hospitality, culture, leisure and manufacturing. Here is another real example: in its annual report, the Dorchester hotel group reported that its Paris hotel was overperforming and its London one was underperforming as a direct result of the end of tax-free shopping. The Royal Opera House, Shakespeare’s Globe, west end theatres and Rank casinos have all publicly criticised the ending of tax-free shopping.

International travellers buy more goods from brands in the countries they are visiting, so British brands such as Mulberry, Burberry and Church’s shoes suffer the most. Mulberry has already had to close its flagship Bond Street store, which it blames solely on the end of tax-free shopping. Just imagine that: Mulberry, after all those years on Bond Street, is having to close. That has an impact on its London stores but also on the manufacturing plants and jobs throughout the UK that depend on the shops that are closing. Burberry manufactures in the north-east, Mulberry manufactures in the south-west and Church’s shoes manufactures in the east midlands, so support from across the country has been submitted in this campaign, demonstrating the real impact of the removal of tax-free shopping.

Just a few case studies include National Museums Scotland’s shop, Essential Edinburgh, Edinburgh Tourism Action Group, Birmingham Chamber of Commerce, Marketing Manchester, North West Business Leadership Team and businesses including Johnstons of Elgin, Church & Co, Boodles and Samsonite. The estimated loss of revenue and jobs will affect regional airports as well as manufacturing in factories in Blyth, Yorkshire and Somerset and high-value shopping areas such as Edinburgh, Dundee, London, Manchester and Leeds.

My hon. Friend the Financial Secretary kindly responded to my letter to the Chancellor yesterday to say that the Government are accepting evidence—I welcome that openness and thank her for that—to inform their policymaking on this issue and ensure that the Treasury has the latest data on the impact of the removal of the VAT retail export scheme. I hope that she and other colleagues will find that this debate adds to the compelling case for tax-free shopping for international visitors.

With all the real-world data emerging by the day showing that HMT’s forecasts are out of data, we urgently need the independent assessment that I referred to earlier on the full impact of tax-free shopping on the UK economy and its tax revenues. I say this to my hon. Friend the Minister: if an independent assessment shows that the full tax impact is either neutral or net positive, the Government must move quickly to restore tax-free shopping before more damage is done to the UK economy. If such a study proves that the Treasury’s figures of £2 billion costs are correct, I will happily accept that and go away and not be a nuisance to her.

[Nickie Aiken (Cities of London and Westminster) (Con)]

International visitors pay VAT when they stay in hotels, eat in restaurants, drink in bars and go to the theatre, so the independent review must look not just at retail but at the possible VAT revenue that the Treasury would receive if there were more international visitors coming here to shop.

[Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown]

My hon. Friend makes a really good point. This is what the Treasury figures do not cover at the moment. It is not just the VAT reclaimed; it is the VAT paid on all the other items, such as meals in hotels. And it is not just VAT: it is corporation tax, air passenger duty and a range of other duties that will be brought into the Treasury. That is where the figure of £350 million—our estimate—comes from, so my hon. Friend makes a really important point.

You will be glad to know I am coming to a conclusion, Dr Huq. The Treasury’s figures are based on the wrong methodology that does not consider in full the major upside for the country. I make an urgent plea today to the Financial Secretary. It is time that the OBR or another audit firm did a proper investigation into all the figures, as my hon. Friend the Member for Cities of London and Westminster said, instead of sticking to the figures that were produced for it in 2020. If it proves that the Treasury figures are correct, so be it. But if, as so many experts and businesses believe, there is considerable economic gain from introducing tax-free shopping, it would be an utter tragedy not to do so. Let us consider the real opportunity for growth and invigorate our economy by introducing tax-free shopping for tourists who come to this country.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Tanmanjeet Singh Dhesi (Slough) (Lab)]

It is a pleasure to serve under your chairship, Dr Huq.

I begin by congratulating the hon. Member for The Cotswolds (Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown) on securing this debate on tax-free shopping for international visitors. On behalf of His Majesty’s official Opposition and as a shadow Treasury Minister, I am absolutely thrilled to respond to the debate. I do so for the very first time in my new role as shadow Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury, so no doubt hon. Members will be very kind to me today, Dr Huq.

As hon. Members, including the hon. Member for Cities of London and Westminster (Nickie Aiken), eloquently made clear, the publication of official independent statistics on this issue commissioned by the Government is long overdue. Manifestly, businesses across our country—although there is a special need for those concentrated close to our airports and in visitor hotspots—need a supportive and stable Government able to provide certainty for the future. Stability and certainty are crucial to enable businesses to plan, invest and grow, but when it comes to tax-free shopping—the arrangement whereby products that are bought here but not consumed here are ultimately VAT-free—the uncomfortable truth for the Government is that Ministers changed course on this policy twice in the space of two months last autumn.

The Prime Minister, when he was the Chancellor, ended VAT-free shopping for tourists in 2021. The right hon. Member for Spelthorne (Kwasi Kwarteng), who became Chancellor, promised in September 2022 to reinstate it, as part of his disastrous mini-Budget. Weeks later, as the musical chairs to become Chancellor continued, the right hon. Member for South West Surrey (Jeremy Hunt) came in as Chancellor and performed another U-turn: tax-free shopping was again off the table. No sooner had one Conservative Chancellor marched businesses all the way to the top of the hill than the next one marched them all the way back down again. The country will not forget the worry and pain that began nearly one year ago with a Tory mini-Budget that crashed our economy, led to interest rates rising, and caused lasting damage for households and businesses. The reversal of the disastrous mini-Budget was necessary, of course, but businesses affected by the U-turn have been left understandably frustrated by changes and decisions made in haste.

We in the Opposition have been listening carefully to the concerns of those calling for VAT-free shopping to be reinstated, but at a time when the nation is having to navigate its way through multiple Tory Government-induced crises, we do not believe that reinstating tax-free shopping for international visitors should be a priority for the use of the billions of pounds of public money. Nevertheless, although we are not calling for VAT-free shopping to be reinstated, we firmly believe that retail and hospitality businesses, particularly those concentrated on our high streets, need support from the Government.

That is why, as my right hon. Friend the Member for Leeds West (Rachel Reeves), the shadow Chancellor, has set out, Labour is committed to reviving Britain’s high streets by replacing the current system of business rates with a new and reformed system that is fit for the modern day. Businesses on our high street provide essential services to people across the country and make a significant contribution to the Exchequer. They are not just places to buy things we need, but an important part of where we live, work and go about our daily lives. Their success is a key part of our mission to secure for the UK the highest sustained economic growth in the G7.

[Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown]

I thank the shadow Exchequer Secretary for giving way. I did not realise he had just been promoted, so I congratulate him on his new post. For understandable reasons, he is not committing to restore tourist tax-free shopping, but would he support my plea to the Minister that we should have a proper independent examination of all the figures to prove whether it would be a tax benefit, neutral or negative for this country, so that we can make informed decisions?

[Mr Dhesi]

As I mentioned earlier, it is imperative that those official, independent and highly regarded statistics commissioned by the Government are there for all to see, for the sake of transparency. However, we feel that at a time when we have the highest recorded waiting lists for the NHS, the biggest tax burden and drop in disposable income since the second world war, and many other crises besides, this cannot be a priority for what I hope will be the incoming Labour Government—touch wood.

We will support businesses, create jobs and increase productivity across every part of our country. A Labour Government will keep listening to and working with businesses as we set about making the tax system fairer and providing the stability and certainty that businesses so desperately need.

--- Later in debate ---

[Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown]

I anticipated that my hon. Friend would raise that—in fact, I nearly put it in my speech to stop her doing so. The proportion of people who want to reclaim the tax and have goods delivered—let us think of, say, a Chinese person visiting this country—is minute compared with the proportion who shop in this country and then physically reclaim the VAT and go home. So while that scheme is available, it is very little used.

[Victoria Atkins]

In fairness, it may be that people do not know that it is available. I do not know whether shops or brands advertise it to their customers. If a consumer is buying a larger item, they may think it much more convenient to have it sent home. The scheme is available should shoppers wish to make the savings described in the debate.

I acknowledge this has not been the case today, but some people call the current situation a “tourist tax”. Again, that is not correct, because the change in the law that happened a couple of years ago means that we simply expect overseas tourists to pay the same amount of tax as British people do when making a purchase, especially when so many countries—including some of the alternative shopping destinations that can be mentioned—do impose a genuine tourist tax on their visitors. So please let us not refer to it in that way, because that would not be correct.

My hon. Friend the Member for The Cotswolds understandably referred to a 20% saving from such VAT refunds, but that assumes that shoppers receive all the VAT back. In reality, we know that the companies processing refunds, who are sometimes the retailers themselves, charge significant administrative fees for the service. Indeed, one third of VAT RES users surveyed by HMRC were charged more than 50% of their refund in fees, and the average was 36%, so the savings to the consumer may be far less than the 20% rate of VAT.

To try to set in context the environment in which I am considering this request—alongside many others—since we voted to leave the European Union in 2016, the Treasury has received some £50 billion-worth of helpful suggestions and requests for products or items that should be zero-rated or have VAT relief applied to them. Cases are made in different debates on different subject matters where we are asked to make VAT relief decisions. Of course, VAT remains our third most productive tax in the UK, and it helps to support many of the public services that we all care so deeply about. Those are serious considerations that we must take into account for any request for VAT relief that we receive.

I completely understand the intentions behind my hon. Friend’s work—indeed, I commend him on it—and I share his wish to ensure that the UK remains an attractive place to visit and that support for our retail sector and high streets is strengthened. Both intentions and aspirations are shared across the Government. Therefore, if I may, I will take a couple of moments to help the House understand what we have done to achieve exactly that.

Through VisitBritain and the GREAT campaign, we have invested significantly in marketing the UK both domestically and internationally to stimulate demand and support recovery. According to updated forecasts from VisitBritain, there are due to be 37.5 million visits to the UK this year, which is some 92% of the level seen in 2019 before the pandemic, and inbound visitor spending is forecast to be £30.9 billion, which is up 9%. Those updates follow the stronger recovery we are seeing, with spending by American visitors up 42% to a record £6 billion last year alone. Sadly, international visitor numbers are still below 2019 levels for all G7 members and large European countries in 2022 and 2023, but of course that comes against the backdrop of the UK economy doing much better than was forecast over the last year or so, as we saw really encouraging growth figures more generally for the economy last week. Rather than ours being the weakest post-pandemic recovery in terms of visitor numbers, the post-pandemic recovery in the UK has been stronger than in countries, such as Germany and Japan, that continued to offer VAT RES. Post-pandemic recovery in the UK has also been stronger than in the United States and Canada in both 2022 and 2023.

We want to make sure that the tourist experience in the UK is as great as it can possibly be. One of the ways in which we have tried to reduce the bureaucracy and the barriers for tourists coming into the UK is by creating an exemption from visa requirements through our new electronic travel authorisation scheme to boost international tourism numbers, with visitors from the Gulf Co-operation Council states and Jordan being the first to benefit. We have also worked with industry to set up the tourism industry working group on international competitiveness and demand, which has been established to recommend practical policy options to support tourism recovery.

--- Later in debate ---

[Victoria Atkins]

I hope to ingeniously incorporate VAT RES into my response to my hon. Friend. She is absolutely right that, although the advocates of the scheme place a great deal of emphasis on it as a tax lever to encourage tourists back to the United Kingdom, in reality tourists come to the UK to look at our beautiful architecture, visit theatres, visit wonderful historic locations, and—dare I say it—visit the Lincolnshire wolds and other places of great beauty around the country.

[Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown]

The Cotswolds.

[Victoria Atkins]

Including, of course, the Cotswolds. We must look not just at how to encourage more tourism through tax levers, but at the actual offering to tourists when they are here in Oxford Street, Burford or Bourton-on-the-Water, so we ensure that those places are as attractive and inviting as they can possibly be. I hope that the House is therefore in no doubt that the Government are determined to do everything they can to make the UK an attractive place to visit, both to support tourism and hospitality and to support our retailers.

As I have said, the VAT retail export scheme is still available to those non-UK visitors who purchase items in store or online and have them delivered to their overseas address. However, as we heard from my hon. Friend the Member for The Cotswolds, a significant Treasury analysis in 2022 estimated that introducing worldwide VAT RES shopping would come at a fiscal cost of around £2 billion each year. I know that my hon. Friends and others have questioned that analysis and methodology, and I will try to address some of those queries and concerns. We also know that industry-commissioned analyses have reached different conclusions, including the Oxford Economics report, which I have gone through carefully with officials. I will try to break some of those down.

The Treasury costings include estimates for an increase in the numbers, but it does not agree that as many extra visitors would come to the UK as a result of changing the tax measure, as suggested by the external research that we have seen so far, particularly the Oxford Economics analysis. For example, the Government estimate that 50,000 to 80,000 more people would come to the UK if we introduced such a scheme. My hon. Friend thinks the figure would be higher, and I think the Oxford Economics report suggested something in the region of 1.6 million, but the 50,000 to 80,000 figure has been endorsed by the OBR, which is the independent body that scrutinises Treasury calculations and assumptions. Indeed, my hon. Friend has asked the OBR to review the policy.

The figure of 50,000 to 80,000 extra visitors is just 4% of that suggested by Oxford Economics, which suggested that 1.6 million more people would come every year. To put that in context, the total number of tourists we welcomed in 2019 was just over 40 million. We therefore find the external assumption to be much stronger than the Treasury was able to find evidence for.

Let me try to reassure observers about the Treasury’s methodology. I know that the concern is raised that it does not properly account for an increase in visitors. I reiterate that the fiscal cost of £2 billion was made up not just of that factor, but of many other components. For example, the cost includes the VAT loss on purchases from EU and non-EU visitors. The cost also takes account of changes in behaviour. It includes an adjustment for the changes in the number of visitors, the changing spending patterns of visitors and the impact of digitalising a VAT RES scheme.

It is also said that the costings overestimate VAT refunds to EU shoppers, but, in fact, EU visitor spending is adjusted to account for the fact that these visitors tend to spend less than non-EU visitors. Government analysis assumed that EU visitors would spend at about 60% of non-EU levels, but, for comparison, Oxford Economics used 63%, so the Government’s assumption was in fact more generous.

Even taking into account those effects, the Government still estimate that the measure would cost in the region of £2 billion each year, and the methodology for calculating that £2 billion cost is consistent with the methodology signed off and certified by the OBR in 2020.

However, as my hon. Friend the Member for Cities of London and Westminster emphasised, tourism must be seen in the round. We should be confident that the UK’s attraction as a destination extends well beyond our shopping, even though we have pretty brilliant shops in our great city and around the country. Evidence from VisitBritain shows that the key motivators for tourists visiting the UK are our rich history and heritage and our vibrant towns and cities, not just shopping.

HMRC has surveyed VAT RES users and found that VAT RES did not make the list of reasons for visiting Great Britain. Furthermore, two thirds of those surveyed said that they would have purchased the items regardless of the scheme, while 28% would have purchased fewer items, meaning that 95% of tourists would still shop even without the scheme.

To emphasise that point, I have asked officials for figures on how much tourists spend when they are visiting. I am told that the average spend per visit was £696 in 2019 and £848 in 2022, which is an increase of 8% in real terms. That tends to indicate that international spending habits in the UK are not directly informed by whether VAT RES is in place.

I accept, of course, that individuals will make different decisions on VAT, and that some customers are more price-sensitive than others. However, taken in the round, those are the figures with which I have been provided. We have looked at the Treasury’s analysis and the OBR’s analysis, which suggest that the increase in tourist spending is marginal, but the policy would still come with a significant price tag.

My hon. Friend the Member for The Cotswolds advocates for a review. As with all taxes, the Government keep VAT policy under constant review. Further to that, we have committed to understanding the latest evidence on VAT shopping, or on the impact of the VAT RES scheme on shopping in British high streets. That is why the Chancellor has already invited evidence submissions from industry to inform our policy making.

I would like to take this opportunity to thank the retail and hospitality industry for providing so much data already for my officials. I am obviously keen for them to carry on with their businesses—earning money, making profits, employing people and contributing to our growing economy. I am grateful to them for taking the trouble and time to help us with this. We expect further evidence in the coming weeks, which we look forward to receiving and will consider very carefully.

Although I am obliged to stress that the independent OBR certified the Government’s costings for the removal of the VAT RES scheme and that we have set out our methodology for how the £2 billion estimate was calculated, I have heard my hon. Friend’s call for an independent review and I will reflect carefully on his eloquent submissions.

We are committed to ensuring that the UK remains an attractive place to visit and committed to supporting our retail sector. None the less, the Chancellor is clear that being responsible with the public finances is a key priority. In that regard, VAT RES would subsidise a large amount of tourist spending that already occurs, arguably, without a tax relief in place. But we very much want to listen to industry and support long-term sustainable growth, so we will continue, as I say, to receive evidence and keep the policy under review. I am extremely grateful to my hon. Friend for setting this debate in motion.

[Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown]

I am grateful to you, Dr Huq, for giving me the opportunity to briefly reply to this debate; it is very important. I thank the Minister for setting out in detail for the first time how the Treasury’s methodology works. I will come back to that in a minute. Before she did so, she set out in detail the reliefs that the Treasury has given to businesses in rates and VAT, as well as high street grants and business grants during the dreadful pandemic, all of which were very much appreciated by businesses and no doubt kept a lot of them going. Some of those reliefs still persist today, for which I am sure businesses are grateful. But that is no substitute for businesses getting profits into their bottom line, and one way of doing that is to get more tourists into this country spending more money. That is why I think the issue is so important.

The Minister has fully set out the case for why she believes the Treasury’s methodology relating to the £2 billion cost to the Treasury is correct. I suggest that I take that away and ask industry to go through, in depth, all the things that she has mentioned and come up with a statement on whether they agree on each individual point, and if not, why they disagree and what the effect would be. If, at the end of the day, we still disagree with the Treasury’s methodology, may I come back to her with a comprehensive statement and discuss it further? I would still say that we badly need an independent study.

I have not brought my brief today, but I recall that when the OBR addressed the Treasury Committee, it said that it placed low reliance—I think that is what it said—on the visitor number forecasts.

[Victoria Atkins]

I was anticipating this point and, indeed, quizzed my officials about it. I think the phrase my hon. Friend refers to is a high uncertainty rating. I am told that that rating given by the OBR is not unusual in the context of Government policy. That is because it is driven by behavioural uncertainty, which is difficult to predict with limited data and the additional complexity linked to EU exit. It was not, I am told, because of concerns with the methodology employed. As I say, we are very keen to hear further evidence and views in due course.

[Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown]

I am grateful to my hon. Friend for being so well informed to be able to answer that individual point. However, I suspect, again, that industry and the OBR will disagree with her over that matter.

I thank the Minister very much, and you, Dr Huq, for so ably chairing this debate. It has been thoroughly useful. The fact that we have had relatively few speakers has enabled us to examine the whole issue in detail; I think industry will be very grateful for that. I suspect that it will come back with all sorts of replies that will rebut what my hon. Friend has said. Let us see and then I will go back to her and I am sure the debate will continue. Nevertheless, I thank her very much for what she has done this afternoon.

Question put and agreed to.

Resolved,

That this House has considered tax-free shopping for international visitors.

Financial Services and Markets Bill

Geoffrey Clifton-Brown Excerpts

Report stage
Wednesday 7th December 2022 Commons Chamber

[Emma Hardy]

I rise to speak to new clauses 22, 23 and 29 and amendments 19, 21 and 22 in my name, which are all about financial inclusion. I thank Martin Coppack from Fair By Design, the Phoenix Group and Mastercard for meeting me earlier this week to talk about why they support financial inclusion.

When we think of financial inclusion, we tend to think of the consumer groups that support it, such as Citizens Advice, and it is not widely known that it is supported by FTSE 100 companies such as the Phoenix Group, Mastercard and Legal & General. When I asked why they support it, they said that since we left the EU, regulators are more powerful than ever before. Of course, I do not believe that the Government should have the call-in powers that were debated earlier. That huge transfer of powers to the regulator means that it becomes even more crucial for Parliament to set the correct objectives; we have to get the objectives right if we are to allow our regulators to function effectively in the post-Brexit world.

There was a rumour that the Government were keen to push back on any additional objectives for the regulators. Apparently, they compared it with the national curriculum, where everybody wants to get their bit in, and perhaps in the same way, everybody wants their bit to be a new objective for the regulators. But even if that is the case—clearly, there is a demand for the regulators to have many new objectives and for objectives to be strengthened—that does not mean that we are incorrect, because financial inclusion is important. Ensuring that the FCA has regard to financial inclusion turns it from a nice to have to something that we must have. It would embed financial inclusion in the design of financial services and products forever.

When I met people from Mastercard and they were talking to me about future innovations in financial services, fintech and the way financial services are developing new products, they said that at the moment financial inclusion is seen as an add-on, in that they develop a product, and financial inclusion is fitted into it by asking, “Well, how can we make this financially inclusive?” Those from Mastercard told me that they want financial inclusion to be there from the beginning, so that when new products are designed and created, it is given primacy, and is there throughout the whole design.

Without financial inclusion, constituents will continue to face what is called the poverty premium. I have spoken before about the poverty premium, which is basically the additional cost of being poor, and it explains why it is so expensive to have such a low income. In Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle, the poverty premium works out at £459 per household, which is nearly £6 million paid in extra costs by my constituents just because they happen to come from lower-income families. This is all calculated by Fair By Design.

For too long, the idea of financial inclusion has been a hot potato passed between the FCA, the Treasury and other regulators and Departments, with nobody prepared to take ultimate responsibility. For example, the Competition and Markets Authority started to carry out investigatory work on the poverty premium across essential services, but in the end determined it was too difficult, and it now signposts organisations to sector regulators such as the FCA. However, the sector regulators say that this is not their responsibility, as it involves elements of social policy and pricing of risk—and so we go on.

We are asking the FCA to collate the information needed to really look at and analyse the poverty premium. Of course, as we expected, the FCA says it does not want another objective. I think we probably understand why it does not want to be given any additional work to do, but it is our job as Parliament to set and establish the types of financial services we want, and to ask what our principles are as parliamentarians, what things we care about and what we want our future financial services to look like. Surely Members across the House would agree that having a financially inclusive sector or financially inclusive products that cater for people right across the population of the UK, not merely the most profitable ones, is a good thing.

When I was talking to people from Mastercard and Phoenix about this, they said that financial inclusion could open up new markets for them among those who would be interested in their products, if they were designed in an effective way. My new clauses and amendments ask the FCA to have regard to financial inclusion, and would place a duty on the FCA to report to Parliament annually on how well it is doing with financial inclusion and giving that information back to us. The proposals would end the current damaging situation by placing a clear remit on the regulator to ensure it routinely and properly explores financial inclusion issues across its work, allowing greater clarity on unintended consequences and the best interventions needed to ensure financial inclusion, as well as who is best placed to act.

The Government could save my constituents in Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle nearly £6 million, and it would not cost them a penny. Surely that, if nothing else, means that the Government should look more favourably at the amendments I have tabled.

[Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (The Cotswolds) (Con)]

I am grateful to catch your eye, Madam Deputy Speaker.

I congratulate the hon. Member for Blaenau Gwent (Nick Smith) on tabling new clause 10, for which he should receive much of the credit. This amendment has an extremely simple intent in laying a duty on the FCA to report to Parliament on

“(a) the adequacy and appropriateness of the FCA’s use of its regulatory powers; (b) the measures the FCA has taken to protect vulnerable consumers, including pensioners, people with disabilities, and people receiving forms of income support; and”—

finally and most importantly—

“(c) the FCA’s receptiveness to the recommendations of the Consumer Panel.”

I will now say why paragraph (c), in particular, is so important. The hon. Member has explained clearly why the FCA should regularly report to Parliament, and in my role as deputy Chairman of the Public Accounts Committee, I have constantly urged openness and transparency, wherever possible, so that our constituents can make full and proper judgments on the actions, or lack of them, of regulators such as the FCA.

Like the hon. Member for Blaenau Gwent, I will give the House an example. The PAC inquiry that we held in April and June this year highlighted the plight of some 2,000 of the 7,700 British Steel pensioners who in 2019 suffered significant financial shortfalls because of the wrong advice given by a significant number of independent financial advisers who advised pensioners to opt out of their valuable defined-benefit pension schemes. To add further insult to injury, the actions by the regulator caused a number of independent financial adviser companies to go out of business or merge with others, and therefore the compensation that pensioners received rightly was capped. I know this is a complicated subject but both the hon. Member and I are using it as an egregious example of why the FCA needs to be more accountable to Parliament and our constituents. This amendment stems from recommendations 5a and 5b in the PAC report “Investigation into the British Steel Pension Scheme”, published on 21 July:

“The FCA should be more proactive and consumer-focused in its engagement with stakeholders. It should have a better mechanism for responding to consumer harms and collect more evidence on a regular basis to pick up on issues that are being raised, especially from emerging risks in financial markets…The FCA must also review how effective the Financial Services Consumer Panel is at consumer protection and how it influences policy debates within the FCA from a consumer angle.”

The hon. Member and I have had discussions with the Economic Secretary, who is on the Front Bench today, and I believe he is sympathetic to the principle that the FCA needs to be much more accountable. If that is the case, I very much hope that he will concede the principle of this amendment and incorporate it as a Government amendment in the other place. Neither the hon. Member nor I wish to be prescriptive about how or when this reporting should take place to Parliament; that is a matter for the Government.

No financial institution will ultimately exist without its consumers. The whole point of the FCA as a regulatory authority is to protect their interests. Rather than having to work through long and complicated reports, there needs to be clear, easily available information on what regulators are doing, or not doing, on their behalf. All of this requires a fundamental shift in the regulator’s—the FCA’s—attitude to the consumer and a commitment to engage more when things go wrong.

Finally, I want to comment on the fraud aspects of the Bill. The PAC recently conducted an inquiry on fraud and discovered that 41% of all reported crime in June was accounted for by fraud, up from 30% in 2017, yet just 1% of police resources is being devoted to fraud crimes. So we urgently need to see the Government’s new comprehensive fraud strategy.

[Stella Creasy]

I rise to add my wholehearted support to the comments of my hon. Friend the Member for Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle (Emma Hardy), to new clause 7, to my Front Bench, and indeed to the points made by the hon. Member for The Cotswolds (Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown): many of us have had concerns about the FCA and its ability to represent consumers for many years, and it is good to see that work being done.

I shall focus on new clause 28. The bridge of the Titanic received seven warnings about icebergs. It was told exactly where the iceberg was, but on hearing those warnings it varied the direction of travel by one or two degrees yet kept going full steam ahead. The visible iceberg was 50 to 100 feet high and 200 to 400 feet long, yet still they ploughed into it. It does not take a rocket scientist to recognise that we have a personal debt crisis in this country with a cost of living crisis, that our constituents are struggling because there is too much month at the end of their money, and that those who make their money from those who are struggling are licking their lips.

This Bill is about financial regulation yet one of the most pernicious legal loan sharks is the buy now, pay later industry. The pool in which they fish is wide. This country has £205 billion-worth of consumer credit lending to account for, up £482 million on the previous month. People are borrowing not just to pay Peter and Paul, but to pay for their mortgages, to put food on their table, petrol in their car and clothes on their children’s backs. Let me be clear: I do not stand here with a hair shirt on saying nobody should borrow, but in that environment, when our constituents are being exploited by these companies, it is absolutely right to regulate them and protect our constituents, yet that is not what is happening here.

For nearly three years we have been warning the Government on the need to act on legal loans harks and the buy now, pay later companies—those warnings that came to the bridge of the Titanic. The Klarnas, the Laybuys and the Clearpays are the companies whose names we see when we go to check out online. They account for 6% of all online spending in the UK, and that is expected to double in the next two years. High thousands of reputable retailers have them on their websites. They have them not to help people to spread their payments as the companies claim, but because people spend on average 30% to 40% more if they use buy now, pay later.

But what people are telling us very clearly is that they are spending money they do not have. A quarter of all buy now, pay later users have been unable to pay for at least one essential because they are having to make repayments on buy now, pay later products. Some 25% of users have also missed a payment or made a late payment on a buy now, pay later loan in the last 12 months.

--- Later in debate ---

[Andrew Griffith]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right that that is a critical priority. We heard the figures—no one disputes them—about the growing prevalence of fraud, much of which is displacement as people go online. We need to give people the tools to protect themselves and we need to ensure that it is a high priority for those who seek to protect us.

We will empower the public with information. The hon. Member for Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle talked about financial inclusion. As we know, there is a slight difference of opinion, in that the FCA considers that that is already within its remit. It is absolutely something that I would like to see greater transparency on, and perhaps that is somewhere we can make common cause.

[Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown]

On fraud, about which I gave the figures to the House earlier, we had a hearing of the Public Accounts Committee the other day. I suggested two things: first, fraud should be made a strategic priority for every police force; and secondly, every police officer in the country should receive at least some basic training in the likelihood of fraud crimes.

[Andrew Griffith]

Fraud is of course a shared responsibility between the Treasury and my hon. Friends in the Home Office, and when it comes to the report that the hon. Member for Hampstead and Kilburn is quite rightly challenging us to produce as quickly as possible, we want that report to be right rather than quick, but we do need to bring it forward as quickly as possible. We will use the time wisely to engage with expert stakeholders, which could well include the training of which my hon. Friend speaks, and we will come forward with that early in 2023.

In addition, this Bill is a seminal moment in protecting victims of authorised push payment fraud. It will ensure swift protections for the vast majority of APP scam victims, reversing the presumption and making sure they receive swift reimbursement so that they are no longer victims of this crime. The measure enables the Payment Systems Regulator to take action across all payments systems, not just faster payments, which is where the fraud occurs most, so that it does not merely get displaced. The Government expect protections for consumers across all payments systems to keep pace with that.

Finance Bill

Geoffrey Clifton-Brown Excerpts

Report stage & 3rd reading
Monday 24th May 2021 Commons Chamber

[Abena Oppong-Asare]

Once again, I thank all Members who have spoken. This has been a varied and wide-ranging debate, with Members focusing on different aspects of the Bill.

My hon. Friend the Member for Hackney South and Shoreditch (Meg Hillier) spoke about the impact of overseas buyers buying properties in her community in bulk. My hon. Friend the Member for Hornsey and Wood Green (Catherine West) spoke about the impact that dirty money is having on her local area and how other countries, such as the USA, are using sanctions to target corrupt individuals. Both are excellent champions for their constituents, who are too often at the sharp end of the housing crisis.

[Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (The Cotswolds) (Con)]

Will the hon. Lady give way?

[Abena Oppong-Asare]

I am afraid that we have to make haste.

My hon. Friend the Member for Oldham East and Saddleworth (Debbie Abrahams) spoke passionately about the impact of the Bill on poverty and public health. She is absolutely right to draw attention to the Government’s failure in this area. My right hon. Friend the Member for Hayes and Harlington (John McDonnell) spoke about the measures in the Bill that are hurting the lowest earners in our society. He has always been a champion for the lowest paid.

Other hon. Members, including the right hon. Member for Haltemprice and Howden (Mr Davis), spoke about the exploitation of workers through umbrella companies. As my hon. Friend the Member for Ealing North (James Murray) said earlier, we are extremely concerned about the Government’s approach to workers’ rights, including their broken promise to include an employment Bill in the Queen’s Speech. We also share Members’ concerns about people being forced into umbrella companies and losing rights as a result. I urge the Government to look carefully at this issue.

I thank the Minister for his answer to my question on the non-resident stamp duty surcharge. I am aware of the consultation in 2019 to seek views on the decision on 1%, which led to the 2% stamp duty surcharge. I also point out that the Chancellor made an announcement in that same year, when he was Chief Secretary to the Treasury, in relation to implementing a non-resident stamp duty surcharge at 3%, so this commitment has been watered down.

I am sure that we will return to this issue during future debates and I thank Members for the points they have raised today. I will end by returning to the issue of the register of overseas ownership. As I said earlier, the Government’s failure to introduce this legislation is extremely disappointing. We will push new clause 24 on this issue to a vote, but I beg to ask leave to withdraw the clause.

Clause, by leave, withdrawn.

New Clause 24

Review of impact of 2% non-resident surcharge

‘(1) The Chancellor of the Exchequer must review the impact of section 88 and schedule 16 of this Act on tax revenues, residential property prices, affordability of residential property, and the volume of property purchases by non-residents, and lay a report of that review before the House of Commons within six months of the passing of this Act and once a year thereafter.

(2) The review under this section must include an assessment of what those impacts would have been if the provisions in the Draft Registration of Overseas Entities Bill had been in force.’—(Abena Oppong-Asare.)

Brought up, and read the First time.

Question put, That the clause be read a Second time.

Financial Services

Geoffrey Clifton-Brown Excerpts

Consideration of Lords amendments
Monday 26th April 2021 Commons Chamber

[Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (The Cotswolds) (Con)]

Who will be responsible for maintaining the list? Will it be Her Majesty’s Treasury? What will be the procedure to review it so that countries may come on to it and existing countries may come off it if they no longer meet the criteria?

[John Glen]

I thank my hon. Friend for his reasonable question about the updating of the list. The Financial Action Task Force meets three times a year to determine the countries identified on its public lists. As such, the UK’s new autonomous high-risk third countries list could be updated up to three times a year to mirror the decisions made by FATF. We will look at that carefully. FATF monitors the UK—indeed, it did a mutual evaluation of the UK in December 2018 and gave us one of the highest ever rankings—and constantly updates countries who are high risk around the world.

I will make a few points in response to the right hon. Member for Wolverhampton South East. In recent years, the Government have taken a number of actions to combat economic crime, including creating a new National Economic Crime Centre to co-ordinate the law enforcement response to economic crime, and passing the Criminal Finances Act 2017, which introduced new powers, including unexplained wealth orders and account freezing orders, and established the Office for Professional Body Anti-Money Laundering Supervision to improve the oversight of anti-money laundering compliance in the legal and accountancy sectors. In 2019, the Government and the private sector jointly published a landmark economic crime plan that outlines a comprehensive national response to economic crime such as fraud and money laundering, as mentioned by the right hon. Gentleman. It provides a collective articulation of 52 actions being taken in both the public and private sectors in the next three years to ensure that UK cannot be abused for economic crime.

The hon. Member for Glenrothes mentioned the Cayman Islands. As of the FATF plenary in February 2021, FATF collectively agreed to include the Cayman Islands in its list of jurisdictions under increased monitoring. As that is one of the FATF public lists that the UK autonomous list mirrors, the Cayman Islands will be included in the UK’s list of high-risk third countries. The outstanding issues that the Cayman Islands must address are outlined in FATF’s publicly available statement.

I hope that the House has found the debate informative and will join me in supporting this important step to ensure that we have an up-to-date framework to protect the financial system from money laundering and terrorist financing.

Question put and agreed to.

Business of the House (Today)

Ordered,

That, at this day’s sitting, the Speaker shall put the Question on the Motion in the name of Keir Starmer relating to the Health Protection (Coronavirus, International Travel) (England) (Amendment) (No.7) Regulations (SI, 2021, No. 150) not later than 90 minutes after the commencement of proceedings on the motion for this Order; the business on that Motion may be proceeded with at any hour, though opposed; and Standing Order No. 41A (Deferred divisions) shall not apply.—(David Duguid.)

Spending Review 2020 and OBR Forecast

Geoffrey Clifton-Brown Excerpts

Wednesday 25th November 2020 Commons Chamber

[Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (The Cotswolds) (Con)]

May I admire my right hon. Friend the Chancellor’s stamina in answering well over 90 questions? I also warmly welcome his statement this afternoon and in particular the £100 billion he announced on infrastructure spending, which includes some vital projects in my constituency, notably the levelling-up fund and the feasibility study for the Cirencester light railway, the reconfirmation of the funding for the A417 and, above all, the extra funding to improve gigabit broadband, which is an issue my rural constituency suffers from. Will he confirm that very hard-hit economies, such as Gloucestershire’s, will benefit from this infrastructure funding, and that it will help speed up a strong recovery?

[Rishi Sunak]

I thank my hon. Friend for his kind words in support. He is absolutely right: we want to ensure that this record investment in infrastructure brings tangible benefits to our constituents wherever they live, whether that is in the rural south-west or a town up in the north-east. All the people of this country should see measurable improvement in the quality of their lives and see the opportunities that they can seize ahead of them. That is something that the Government will focus relentlessly on and intend to deliver.

Economic Update

Geoffrey Clifton-Brown Excerpts

Tuesday 17th March 2020 Commons Chamber

[Rishi Sunak]

We have an extensive security and support network, which extends beyond statutory sick pay to an NHS that is free at the point of use. Our welfare and security support system works well, and we buttressed it with an extra £1 billion investment last week.

[Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (The Cotswolds) (Con)]

Although I congratulate my right hon. Friend on the package he has worked very hard on, sadly, I received a phone call today from one of my employers, whose contract had been cancelled forthwith. He has had to lay off 1,000 people. There will be a lot of very anxious people tonight. Although they are probably entitled to employment and support allowance and universal credit, they will suffer a considerable drop in their wages. I urge the Chancellor to come up with an employment support package as soon as possible.

[Rishi Sunak]

I thank my hon. Friend for his support. I have sympathy with his constituents in that situation. That is why we strengthened our security and safety net last week, but the best thing we can do is help employers get through this and ensure that those jobs are ready for people to go back to as soon as practically possible.