Multiannual Financial Framework

Denis MacShane Excerpts
Wednesday 31st October 2012

(11 years, 6 months ago)

Commons Chamber
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Greg Clark Portrait Greg Clark
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Our position is that we want the EU budget to be cut, but part of the negotiating mandate that the Prime Minister has agreed is that the very most that we would accept would be a real-terms freeze. However, we want a cut, as I shall explain.

The Commission—this time with the European Parliament—has proposed an increase of 6.8% for the 2013 annual budget. That is for a year in which the IMF forecasts that growth throughout Europe will average 0.5%. My view, and that of the Government, is that such a demand constitutes a grotesque imposition.

Denis MacShane Portrait Mr Denis MacShane (Rotherham) (Lab)
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I welcome the Financial Secretary to his new job. Will he confirm the House of Commons Library figures showing that Her Majesty’s Government’s spending between 2010 and 2015 will increase by £100 billion?

Greg Clark Portrait Greg Clark
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I cannot confirm that, but I noted from the right hon. Gentleman’s article in the New Statesman that he is calling for increases in the budget, especially for the structural funds.

The Commission’s proposal is totally unacceptable, so let me say very clearly to hon. Members, as well as those around Europe who might be watching, that it is not happening. On the MFF, we will accept no real-terms increase in the EU budget for the next seven years. We will veto any proposal that either does not cut the budget or does not at the very least freeze it for the whole of the period. There will be no more budgets that pursue ever closer union through ever higher spending.

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Chris Leslie Portrait Chris Leslie (Nottingham East) (Lab/Co-op)
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That was a rather partisan speech from the Minister—[Interruption.] Well, it is the truth—it was rather partisan. May I first place on the record my appreciation to the Leader of the House, who is not in his place, and to the new Chief Whip, for scheduling this debate? Without the Government helpfully timetabling the motion on the report from the European Scrutiny Committee, we would not have had the opportunity to express the view of the House of Commons today.

Our economy has struggled in the past two years. We have stood still while our international competitors have accelerated away, and the flatlining economy has been bad for public finances, with borrowing higher so far this year than in the same six-month period last year. It is therefore clear that all demands on the public purse need to be considered with care, and our contribution to the EU budget can be no exception.

Denis MacShane Portrait Mr MacShane
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My hon. Friend might be a bit young to recall that in 1984 Britain’s contribution to the then European Community was £654 million. Six years later it had risen fourfold to £2.54 billion. Does he remember which Prime Minister sprayed British taxpayers’ money all over Europe, or are we all now post-Thatcherite, because the Conservative party certainly is?

Chris Leslie Portrait Chris Leslie
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The two Government parties have a lot of history to confront, but I do not want to be as partisan as the Financial Secretary, except to say that in a week when 1 million letters are being sent clawing back child benefit, when police budgets are being cut by 20%, when pensioners are having their tax allowances frozen, and when some of the poorest in society are being asked to pay more in tax—[Interruption.] It is a fact. Given all that, would it not be perverse if the European Union were exempt from those cuts?

When times are tough, not only in Britain, but in countries throughout Europe, it is all the more important that the negotiations on the next seven-year EU spending review—the multiannual financial framework—spurn the inflationary tendencies which simply repeat previous settlements plus a nominal price adjustment. Heads of Government need to champion reform, get a grip on the fundamentals of the EU budget and reverse that upward trend. There is a very simple test for the summit on 22 November: will member states just keep rolling forward the EU budget, plus inflation, or can they achieve a real-terms reduction?

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Denis MacShane Portrait Mr Denis MacShane (Rotherham) (Lab)
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Does my hon. Friend share my hope that the EU—some time, and perhaps this century—will get the Nobel prize for economics?

Mike Gapes Portrait Mike Gapes
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I would hope that my right hon. Friend and I—we are of a similar age—will live long enough to see that, but I do not think it will happen immediately. It will require the eurozone to become much more tightly organised than it is today.

Last week, I visited Germany and Norway with the Select Committee on Foreign Affairs. We are considering the future of Europe and the implications for this country of different options that might arise. Two or three years ago, the political debate in Germany was about trying to keep Britain on board and to move with Britain. However, the reality, right across the political spectrum, is that Germany has given up on the UK under the coalition Government. The Germans see their future as being with France and Poland, and their priority will be to save the eurozone at all costs.

That means that the UK will be in an uncomfortable position. The Prime Minister might have signed a joint letter with European leaders in 2010, but the reality in 2012-13 is that Germany is not with us. Anybody who thinks that only Germany is not with us should read the remarks of Radek Sikorski, the Polish Foreign Minister, who gave a radical speech in Oxford just a few weeks ago, in which he used phrases such as:

“Poland wants to be with Germany and France as partners”.

He also said:

“You could, if only you wished, lead Europe’s defence policy…Britain’s leaders need to decide once again how best to use their influence in Europe…The EU is an English-speaking power. The Single Market was a British idea. A British commissioner runs our diplomatic service…But if you refuse, please don’t expect us to help you wreck or paralyze the EU.”

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Bernard Jenkin Portrait Mr Bernard Jenkin (Harwich and North Essex) (Con)
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The speech by the hon. Member for Preston (Mark Hendrick) sounded more like a speech in favour of an increase in the European budget, albeit disguised as a speech in favour of a cut, because that happens to be what he is being asked to vote for today.

I note that passions are high in this debate, not least among my hon. Friend the Member for Banbury (Sir Tony Baldry) and the hon. Member for Ilford South (Mike Gapes). Let me assure them both—because I think they come from the same European stable—that the last thing those of us who support the amendment want to do is wreck Europe or to wreck our relationship with our European partners.

But something very big is happening in British politics—much bigger than this debate. We are debating the European multiannual financial framework, but there is something rather familiar about the positions being adopted by those on the two Front Benches. One could almost imagine that, if they were to change places, each would be making the other’s speech. Indeed, in the last Parliament, one felt that that was exactly what was happening. There is something deeply disconnected about the debates that we have been having in the House about our future relationship with the European Union, and about the aspirations of the British people and what they want that relationship to be.

I would caution my right hon. and hon. Friends against taunting Labour Members over their volte face on this issue. I have no doubt that they have made a volte face on the question of European spending, but for us to accuse them of doing so will cut absolutely no ice with the voters. I would note, however, that the Labour party’s volte face represents a big shift in the politics of this country and in the politics of our relationship with the European Union. Labour is an opposition party that is hungry for power. Even Labour Members can now sense the tide of opinion that is flowing against the European Union among our voters. They are picking up the vibrations from their constituents and from the voters they need in order to get elected, and they have discovered a new principle in order to reflect that: they now want to cut the European budget.

Denis MacShane Portrait Mr MacShane
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rose

Bernard Jenkin Portrait Mr Jenkin
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I give way to my newly Eurosceptic colleague.

Denis MacShane Portrait Mr MacShane
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I am deeply grateful to the hon. Gentleman. Whether this is a volte face or a volte farce I am not quite sure, but he is quite right to say that the tide is flowing; it is flowing to Labour and away from the Conservatives.

Bernard Jenkin Portrait Mr Jenkin
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I believe that the Labour party is picking up the anger of the British people about the idea of spending more money on European policies when we are having to cut back on policies of our own.

There is something rather chilling about the exchanges between those on the Front Benches, which tacitly suggest that a veto is a defeat and that it could lead to a worse budgetary outcome for the United Kingdom than could a negotiated settlement. That seemed to be the burden of the argument put by the hon. Member for Nottingham East (Chris Leslie). I should just like to point out to him what that says about the relationship that we now have with the European institutions. Those institutions are so overpowering and so powerful that even the veto of the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom cannot stop the European train on its way to its destination. The British people feel that something has gone wrong with that relationship. This was not the basis on which we were sold membership of the institution, and it was not the basis on which all the assurances were given by successive Governments that each treaty represented no substantial change and was just a “tidying-up exercise”.

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Denis MacShane Portrait Mr Denis MacShane (Rotherham) (Lab)
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To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven. Without indulging in some of stronger language and rhetoric of different colleagues, I say that this may be an important parliamentary moment, because the British people decided in May 2010 not to give any of us a majority. I think they wanted a different kind of Parliament to emerge, one that was a bit freer, a bit more liberal and a bit less whipped; I am a party animal myself and the Whips are necessary, but perhaps tonight some signal can be sent that we are listening.

There are technical points that can and cannot be made. I would dearly love to see, in South Yorkshire or perhaps in Northern Ireland, every public servant’s salary reduced to €100,000—about £80,000. If that salary level was applied, there would be a revolt in Whitehall, and among Cabinet Ministers and senior Ministers of State, if not perhaps among junior Ministers of State.

We have heard the language of “betrayal” used, and I think that is silly, because the country is going through a serious discussion about what its future relationship with Europe will be. The people have never elected Mr Nigel Farage or the UK Independence party to a seat in this House, although they have elected him to the European Parliament. However, his spirit has been present in much of tonight’s debate.

We are facing a fundamental divide, as there are two approaches to European politics. We heard one earlier today, when the ten-minute rule Bill was introduced. It was supported by a large number of Conservative Members and it called for the end to the free movement of people in Europe. It was a well-argued case, but of course it utterly destroys the purpose of the European Union if we are to have passport checks at every border and not allow people to live where they wish.

We are now finding that there is a big debate about the money we spend. I take all the points that have been made about cuts, but we could have the same argument about the Department for International Development’s spending, and I might argue about whether the £13 billion we spent in Afghanistan is money wisely spent. Underneath it all is this dichotomy over Europe. There is a debate about being in or out—an honest debate that we are beginning to have—and another debate among those of us who believe we should stay in the European Union about what kind of European Union there should be.

The voting of money is, of course, what determines what kind of policy we have. This budget is the wrong budget, drawn up by conservatives and cautious, complacent centre-right bureaucrats and politicians. It is inappropriate and it keeps the European budget in the same old tramlines of protectionist common agricultural spending and ineffective regional spending.

Denis MacShane Portrait Mr MacShane
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I will not give way. I am very happy with the Speaker’s reduction of the time limit.

Last week, Labour MEPs voted against that budget and for a different priority that would focus on growth, on jobs and on what is needed. That is what I believe should be done, which is why I am happy to vote for the amendment tonight. I am not sure what will happen thereafter. This country will have to face a big question. Tonight it is right that Parliament asserts its authority. That does not mean the end of the debate; it is just the beginning of the debate about whether we stay in the European Union or not.

Infrastructure (Financial Assistance) Bill

Denis MacShane Excerpts
Monday 17th September 2012

(11 years, 8 months ago)

Commons Chamber
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Danny Alexander Portrait The Chief Secretary to the Treasury (Danny Alexander)
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I beg to move, That the Bill be now read a Second time.

We are introducing the Bill because a number of key infrastructure projects in this country that are close to starting construction are being held back as a result of the difficulties they face in accessing finance. These difficulties are not because of poor commercial or economic viability of projects, but because of temporary capacity constraints in debt markets and significantly longer lead times to secure lending commitments. Accordingly, we are expediting this Bill so that we can provide the necessary financial assistance as quickly as possible and provide confidence to the markets that the Government will be in a position to do so. Once Parliament approves the Bill we will be able to complete formal negotiations with project providers over financial assistance, which we would like to do as quickly as possible to prevent costly and unnecessary delay. I therefore thank Opposition Members and the Opposition’s Front-Bench representatives for agreeing to expedite the Bill.

The measures that the Bill will make possible—financial assistance to infrastructure and housing projects worth tens of billions of pounds—have received widespread support, particularly from the business community. They are supported, for example, by the Confederation of British Industry, which says that our approach

“marks a big step towards unlocking the…investment needed to renew our national infrastructure,”

and that our proposals

“will provide a much-needed tonic for the construction sector, getting diggers on site and people into work. It will make a difference to households across the country.”

Denis MacShane Portrait Mr Denis MacShane (Rotherham) (Lab)
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I support the main thrust of the Bill, but on Sunday last week I drove my son to start his studies at Edinburgh university and the A1 between Newcastle and Edinburgh, which is a single-carriageway road, was clogged up with tractors and hay balers. It is extraordinary that, in contemporary Britain, the access road to one of our main capital cities belongs to the back of beyond in Bangladesh. Can we do anything to dual-carriageway that road? It is close to the Chief Secretary’s constituency as well as mine.

Danny Alexander Portrait Danny Alexander
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I think that my constituents in the highlands would say that describing it as close to my constituency might be a misuse of the word “close”, but none the less I recognise the right hon. Gentleman’s point. I gently observe that his party had 13 years in office to deal with that project, although I mean no disrespect to him in saying so.

Bank of England (Appointment of Governor) Bill

Denis MacShane Excerpts
Friday 6th July 2012

(11 years, 10 months ago)

Commons Chamber
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Denis MacShane Portrait Mr Denis MacShane (Rotherham) (Lab)
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It is often said that the European Parliament is powerless because it cannot initiate legislation. Although the House approves, votes on and debates legislation, it can never actually initiate it—the House does not have law-initiating powers. My hon. Friend is trying to initiate a law, but I worry that the Bill will be talked out and walked out by lots of whipped Conservative colleagues. Parliament is powerless. Mr Speaker calls Ministers to the House so they can be held to account by hon. Members, but is it not worrying that Parliament is powerless to initiate legislation?

John McDonnell Portrait John McDonnell
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This is one of the few opportunities when the House has the opportunity to initiate legislation. I take what my right hon. Friend says as a caution that we should take that initiation role seriously. We should take all our activities seriously, but Back Benchers should be especially serious when the onus falls on them to make a change in the nature of our governance.

Banking Commission Report

Denis MacShane Excerpts
Monday 19th December 2011

(12 years, 5 months ago)

Commons Chamber
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George Osborne Portrait Mr Osborne
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The intention is to make sure that the taxpayers of Solihull are better protected against the failure of banks in future in a way that they were not in recent years when banks such as RBS failed. That is the overall intention of the report, but it has a very important component that does not get nearly the same media attention as the ring-fencing element that we have all been talking about—namely, the promotion of competition. The report has a specific recommendation whereby, from 2013, customers in Solihull will be able to switch their bank account within seven days, at no cost, and all their direct debits and credits will follow them to their new bank account. That is a very practical benefit to the people of Solihull and, indeed, the entire country.

Denis MacShane Portrait Mr Denis MacShane (Rotherham) (Lab)
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Given that the Government are not spending and banks are not lending, is the Chancellor at all worried that he and Sir John Vickers are generals fighting the last war? Surely, rather than keeping a lot of money in vaults, we want it out there fructifying in the economy creating jobs and new businesses.

George Osborne Portrait Mr Osborne
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At times it feels like the current war as well. I do not think that the effects of the financial crisis have disappeared from our economy. Through these proposals, we are taking steps better to protect British taxpayers in the future. There is a decent implementation period for some of the recommendations, such as the loss absorbency recommendations, precisely to take account of what is going on in funding markets. It would be pretty extraordinary if this country, after all that it went through in recent years, with the biggest bank bail-out in the entire world happening here, did not learn the lessons of what went wrong and try to protect people in future.

Prevention of Nuclear Proliferation

Denis MacShane Excerpts
Tuesday 13th December 2011

(12 years, 5 months ago)

Commons Chamber
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John Baron Portrait Mr Baron
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I am afraid that the Iranians have a slightly longer memory than just 12 years. They remember our support for Saddam Hussein when he invaded Iran, and many other interventions in Iran by the west are still fresh in their memories.

We need to go the extra mile for peace. Much greater emphasis needs to be placed on quiet yet vigorous diplomacy between Iran and the west. The UK is well placed to help in this effort. Despite recent measures announced by the Foreign Secretary, of the three stated enemies of Iran—the UK, the US and Israel—only one still has diplomatic relations with Iran.

Denis MacShane Portrait Mr Denis MacShane (Rotherham) (Lab)
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Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

John Baron Portrait Mr Baron
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No, because we are very short of time—I apologise.

I suggest that we give diplomacy a greater chance for one final push before it is too late.

The Economy

Denis MacShane Excerpts
Tuesday 6th December 2011

(12 years, 5 months ago)

Commons Chamber
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Pat McFadden Portrait Mr Pat McFadden (Wolverhampton South East) (Lab)
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I shall use the time available to make a couple of points about the economic challenge facing the country, and in particular about the era of the politics of less. All of us must look to achieve our political and economic aims in an era of lower growth than we have been used to in recent years.

The central feature of the autumn statement last week was the further downgrading of economic forecasts for the short term. The Office for Budget Responsibility downgraded its growth forecast for this year from 2.6% to 0.9% and for next year from 2.8% to 0.7%, and said that by 2015 the economy will be 3.5% or £65 billion smaller than previously forecast. The Financial Times has estimated that the gap between the economic growth trajectory had the recession not happened and where we will be in a few years’ time is 14% of GDP. We are therefore entering an era in which our economy is smaller—and by some projections significantly so—than it would otherwise be. Recovery will be weaker than expected, unemployment will be higher and the economy will be smaller for some years to come.

Denis MacShane Portrait Mr Denis MacShane (Rotherham) (Lab)
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Is my right hon. Friend aware that between 1997 and 2010 the British economy grew by 75%—in other words, that it almost doubled? It has now come to a shuddering stop and is going into reverse. Can he think of any previous historical period in the past 200 years, and not only in the 1970s, when a Conservative Government presided over such an astonishing, shrinking, no-growth economy?

Pat McFadden Portrait Mr McFadden
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I agree with my right hon. Friend that the economic times that we are in should make us reassess what we think of as normal.

The human implications have been laid out by the Institute for Fiscal Studies in its analysis of the impact on households. As was mentioned earlier in the debate, the IFS has shown that the distributional impact of the measures is geared so that the greatest losses come in the lowest-income deciles, and that there are particularly harsh effects on families with children. The shadow Chancellor in his opening speech referred to the impact of the tax credit measures on individual constituencies. The most striking figure for me is that the IFS forecasts that between 2009-10 and 2012-13 there will be a 7.4% fall in real median net household income, which is about the same as the largest fall since records began.

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Richard Fuller Portrait Richard Fuller (Bedford) (Con)
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I listened with great interest to the comments of the hon. Member for Penistone and Stocksbridge (Angela Smith), who spoke eloquently about the short-term pain that many families in her constituency and, I am sure, in mine are going through in these difficult economic circumstances. She also rightly pointed to the need for the Government to think about the long term. I hope that she will listen to my observations in the same spirit.

Under the previous Government, the United Kingdom became the most indebted major economy on earth. That was not the fault of the bankers alone, of Government borrowing alone or of companies alone; it was the fault of us all, although led by a Government who were at best asleep at the wheel and at worst systematically undermining our long-term finances for short-term political gain. These problems are so endemic that they cannot possibly be put right in one year, in one term or by one policy.

The absolute core policy that a massively indebted nation must pursue is the maintenance of low interest rates for as long as possible. The McKinsey Global Institute study on debt and deleveraging shows that the UK led the pack of the world’s largest economies in terms of its debt-to-GDP ratio and became increasingly more indebted from the mid-’90s and, in particular, from 2003. From 2000 to 2010, domestic, public and private debt as a percentage of our GDP rose by 182 percentage points to nearly 500% of GDP, making the UK the most indebted of all major economies—even more so than Japan at the end of the period.

Denis MacShane Portrait Mr MacShane
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In the 1930s, interest rates were close to zero, as they were in Japan in the 1990s. Arguably, that increases indebtedness because if people can borrow massively without having to pay serious interest rates, they might run up debts. I am just gently saying that the idea that one factor can explain the problem and that we should focus on that is wrong. We need a holistic approach.

Richard Fuller Portrait Richard Fuller
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The right hon. Gentleman makes a helpful point. It is precisely my point, although unfortunately the shadow Chancellor missed it when he seemed to think that the responsibility of the Government towards debt management was to do with Government debt alone. It is not. The responsibility of the Government is to look at the whole economy. The debt of a nation, whether taken on by the Government, households or companies, has to be repaid by the nation. That is what got so out of control over the past 10 years.

European Budgets 2014 to 2020

Denis MacShane Excerpts
Tuesday 8th November 2011

(12 years, 6 months ago)

Commons Chamber
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Mark Hoban Portrait Mr Hoban
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My right hon. Friend makes an important point. In parallel to the debate about the ceilings for the budgetary framework over the course of the period between 2014 and 2020, debates are also taking place on the individual lines of expenditure within the EU budget, and we are proposing significant reductions in cost to underpin our strategy of curbing overall spending by the EU.

Denis MacShane Portrait Mr Denis MacShane (Rotherham) (Lab)
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Will the Financial Secretary give way?

Mark Hoban Portrait Mr Hoban
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May I make a little progress? I am conscious of the number of hon. Members, perhaps on both sides of the House, who want to take part in the debate.

In addition to the on-budget spending increases proposed by the Commission, the Commission has earmarked an extra £18 billion in off-budget spending. That is an alarming lack of transparency that brings added risks of poor oversight and control. In a further lack of transparency, the proposal fails to focus on levels of cash payments—actual expenditure that the multi-annual financial framework will allow in each heading. Instead, it opts to use commitments—planned expenditure—but frankly the cost to UK taxpayers is not how much is planned to be spent but the actual cash going out of the door. This should be the starting point for the higher control over spending, and we and our allies have made that clear to the Commission.

Denis MacShane Portrait Mr MacShane
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Will the Financial Secretary give way?

Mark Hoban Portrait Mr Hoban
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Let me make a bit more progress and I will take the right hon. Gentleman’s intervention in a short while.

The Commission also asked us to use as our starting point for a freeze—this is perhaps where the hon. Member for Swansea West (Geraint Davies) has been confused by the Commission’s numbers—the level of spend planned in 2005, but we cannot ignore the fact that the global crisis has taken place since then. Every country has had to scale back its spending from pre-crisis days and the European Commission is no different.

The Commission can also do more to ensure that money is spent more wisely. We are leading the way on reforming financial management in the EU. For the first time in 17 years, we have refused to support the sign-off of the EU accounts. We are pushing for simpler, clearer rules on spending programmes that make it easier to spot fraud and error, and we have also raised our game at home to ensure that EU money spent here is spent properly and wisely.

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Mark Hoban Portrait Mr Hoban
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We could spend all one hour and 30 minutes detailing the ways in which the EU wastes money. My hon. Friend has raised one. The EU spends more on buildings in Luxembourg than on vital expenditure. So, conscious of your strictures, Mr Speaker, let me make some progress.

Curbing European spending is not the only priority for the UK. We need to tackle how the EU funds its spending, too. The Commission is trying to increase its control over funding by introducing new EU-wide taxes and amending the correction mechanisms such as the UK abatement or rebate. Now, this Government have been absolutely clear. We will defend our rebate. Last time the UK negotiated the multi-annual financial framework in 2005 the then Labour Government gave ground on the rebate in return for reform of the common agricultural policy. What has happened since then? The value of the rebate has fallen, but the spending on the CAP has not budged. We will not fall for empty promises; we will resist any change to the abatement. Our rebate remains absolutely justified. The structure of EU spending means that we get less per capita than any other member state. Without the rebate, the UK’s net contribution as a percentage of national income would be the largest across Europe and twice as large as the contributions made by France and Italy. Our rebate is fully justified, and we are not going to give it away.

Denis MacShane Portrait Mr MacShane
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Can the Minister confirm that, for the six years, the proposed increase is 11%. Eleven divided by six is 1.85% or about 1.9% each year. Is that factually accurate?

Mark Hoban Portrait Mr Hoban
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This goes back to some of the challenges in the Commission’s presentation of its numbers. The budget proposed by the Commission is £100 billion larger than the real freeze in spending that the UK and its allies have proposed. [Interruption.] The right hon. Member for Rotherham (Mr MacShane) says that I have not answered the question. It is clear that the way in which the European Commission has structured its budget, by having some things on or off-budget and by talking about commitments rather than actual spending, confuses and clouds the position, leaving some to think that the Commission has embarked on a freeze on the budget, whereas in reality the EU is proposing a real-terms increase in the budget.

Let me move on to the second issue in relation to the funding of the EU budget. The Government strongly oppose the proposal for new taxes to fund the European Union budget. They attach considerable importance to the principle of tax sovereignty. Tax is a matter for member states to decide at a national level. We oppose any new taxes or changes to the existing system that increase the UK’s contributions or pose a threat to our long-term position, including a financial transactions tax to fund the EU budget. We cannot accept a budget which asks for more and asks for a greater share from taxpayers and from the UK.

A year ago, the Government set out their plans for the consolidation of public expenditure at the spending review. Supported by the International Monetary Fund and OECD, the Government set out plans to reduce the deficit. We have shown our resolve by keeping the UK out of the storm that has engulfed the euro area, and we will show the same resolve with the European Commission. The inflation-busting increases proposed by the Commission are out of touch with the realities felt by taxpayers across Europe, and out of touch with the views of José Manuel Barroso, who in June argued that many states

“need to show more ambition when it comes to fiscal consolidation”.

We as a Government believe that the Commission needs to show much more ambition, too, when it comes to fiscal consolidation. We will continue to press the European Commission and member states to deliver a multi-annual framework that delivers real fiscal consolidation. This will be a challenging negotiation.

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Chris Leslie Portrait Chris Leslie
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I will come to that in a moment.

If that means the Government need to stand firm for the full 21-day negotiating period, so be it. The UK should not allow the 2012 budget to rise beyond a real-terms freeze.

With regard to the snappily titled “Multiannual Financial Framework 2014-2020”, we rarely have an opportunity to debate a subject while the Chancellor is talking about it at an ECOFIN meeting, so this is a useful sign that Parliament is in tune with the issues of the day. Defining the main budget priorities over the seven-year period is a process that began in 1986 but was changed in the Lisbon treaty so that there was greater involvement for the European Parliament. It is important to explore the detail, but in our view the notion that there should be any significant overall increase in expenditure is perverse, given the strictures being placed on mainstream public investment projects at home. The Government must ensure that they deliver on their rhetoric in the motion and secure a much better deal than the one currently on the table.

There are two crucial areas on which the Government need to focus: the Commission’s proposal for new revenue powers and the UK rebate. With regard to the Commission’s proposals to change what it calls its “own resources” method of calculating the income it received from each member state, it is suggesting two new direct revenue streams. The first is a top-slice process for domestic VAT revenues, which I would like to ask the Minister about specifically. I am very sceptical about the proposal and would be grateful if he addressed it when summing up, because I do not think he touched on it adequately in his opening comments. Will he tell the House what proportion of our domestic VAT would be diverted to EU institutions if the change was proceeded with? The Commission seemed to suggest that it is a replacement for the VAT element of the funding formula used to calculate contributions from each member state, but how would the existing arrangements and the new arrangements compare?

With regard to the Commission’s proposal for a new EU financial transaction tax, can we at least be clear that it twists the notion of a Robin Hood tax so wide of the mark that it is barely recognisable from the global FTT, which has received so much support from charities, campaigners and leading economists worldwide? Revenues from any FTT must surely be destined for jobs, growth and carbon reduction at home and in the developing world. Pouring those revenues into the EU budget or EU bail-out funds instead would be the wrong thing to do and totally contrary to the spirit of a genuine Robin Hood tax. Instead, the starting point ought to be the proposal that Labour put forward at the 2009 G20 summit, which is that all countries should agree to work together to establish a tax, set at a fraction of 1%, that could be levied on financial transactions, millions of which happen in the City everyday. We want to see a financial transaction tax—but one that is implemented with the widest possible international agreement.

Denis MacShane Portrait Mr MacShane
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In 1995 I moved an amendment to the Finance Bill proposing exactly what my hon. Friend suggests, but an hon. Friend who later became the Chancellor of the Exchequer and is now my right hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh South West (Mr Darling) wrote through it with red ink, “No new taxes”, so the idea died the death some 15 years ago. I agree with my hon. Friend the Member for Nottingham East (Chris Leslie), but let us not make the best the enemy of the good. If we get this thing going, we are getting something going that will help people. Waiting for everybody in the world to sign up to it will involve a very long wait.

Chris Leslie Portrait Chris Leslie
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

I understand my right hon. Friend’s frustrations, but I really do not think that the proposal on the table from the Commission would achieve the outcomes that he or I seek. We have to make concerted efforts to broker a deal where any FTT applies in any of the world’s big financial centres, all of which by the way have much to gain from a new and reliable revenue stream that supports jobs, growth and the developing world.

The Commission’s proposal falls short, especially because of its intended destination for the revenue, but I think that the difference my right hon. Friend seeks is this: we felt that there was a real window of opportunity to steer the agenda on a financial transaction tax and to persuade other countries that it was something seriously worth considering, but our Chancellor is out there at the ECOFIN meeting today, resisting under all circumstances. Indeed, he wrote a private letter to bankers the other day in which he indicated that he was not in favour of it at all—even though that contradicts some of his statements in this place. He is wrong to block wider discussion among the G20 and beyond.

The BBC’s Nick Robinson reported this lunchtime that our Chancellor asked what was the point in even having a conversation about the financial transaction tax and, apparently, whether it was

“the best way to spend our time”.

It is important that we address those issues, because the Government’s weak and defeatist attitude is an abdication of leadership and a total abandonment of the gains made for the cause at the G20 meeting in 2009. It is time that Britain stepped up to the plate and showed the leadership needed to broker a better deal by being open to the idea that it is possible to win the argument for a different approach. That is why we call on the Government to engage internationally—beyond the EU proposals alone.

The second major proposal in this multi-annual financial framework is for the Commission to change the correction mechanisms for countries that are the most significant net contributors to the EU. In other words, it proposes to end the UK’s permanent rebate. The rebate returns about two thirds of the difference between the UK’s contribution to the EU and the money we receive back. Let us be absolutely clear: the Commission’s proposals are totally unacceptable. Of all the 27 countries, only Germany is a higher net contributor to the EU budget than the UK, and we have the lowest per capita receipts from it. The common agricultural policy is a far bigger distortion of the EU budget than any correction mechanism such as the UK rebate.

This is a key test for the Prime Minister. He needs to put up a strong defence of our rebate if the language that he uses here in the House is to be matched by his deeds in those negotiations.

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John Baron Portrait Mr John Baron (Basildon and Billericay) (Con)
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I have added my name to the motion because I very much support the Government’s attempts to reduce the Commission’s proposed budget. We must rein in the Commission’s spending, which is excessive, above inflation and goes against the direction of travel of Government budgets generally, as my hon. Friend the Financial Secretary has made clear from the Dispatch Box.

Taking into account changes to the rebate, our net contribution suggests that the increases are far worse for this country. In the previous Parliament, the total net contribution was around £19 billion. In this Parliament —over the next four or five years—it is set to rise to more than £41 billion. We often talk about big figures in this place, but what does that actually mean in terms of people’s perception of such expenditure? Let us consider the average starting salary of a police officer or a nurse, which is well below £30,000. For that £21 billion or £22 billion increase, we could have an extra 750,000 police officers or nurses, or, at less then £300 million each, we could have a further 80 hospitals.

Alternatively, if we were really interested in spurring on and encouraging growth in this country, given that a 1p cut in basic rate income tax brings around £4 billion into the Treasury, we could have a 5p cut in the basic rate of income tax. That certainly would encourage growth and make a real difference to this country’s economic outlook. Speaking of that, given that a 1p cut in small business corporation tax equates to £500 million, one could eliminate small business corporation tax for the increase we are talking about. If we really are serious about growth, I hope that that gives everyone an idea of the scope of the packages we could introduce, instead of just acquiescing in this monumental increase in the EU budget.

Denis MacShane Portrait Mr MacShane
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Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

John Baron Portrait Mr Baron
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

No, because I do not have time and I want to push on. I do apologise.

The situation is made even worse by the fact that the European Court of Auditors has still not signed off the accounts after 16 years. It is unbelievable. Such a situation would simply not exist in the private sector. We would not be more than doubling our contribution to an organisation that has not signed off its accounts. We have no precise idea of how the money is spent. We need to take cognisance of the fact that it is a dire situation when auditors have not been able to sign off the accounts. It proves the lack of transparency that exists when it comes to EU spend.

I suggest to my hon. Friend the Minister that we have to be careful about the position that the Government take. Although our first position is that there should be no net increase at all in absolute terms, our fall-back position seems to be that we do not want any increase in real terms—in other words, that we will match inflation. At the moment, inflation is a touch over 3% across the eurozone. However, there is a risk that inflation could rise, and we should be careful what we wish for when talking about pegging our contribution to inflation.

This recession is unusual in that it is a de-levering recession caused by too much debt. The options available to Governments are to reduce spending, which is difficult in the present environment, to create growth—again, difficult, because people are paying down their debts—or to create an element of inflation in order to inflate the debt away. I suggest that the European Union, or certainly the eurozone, will explore that possibility and is currently exploring the option of quantitative easing on a massive scale. Despite the economic outlook, higher inflation is not an impossibility, particularly looking 12 months out. I ask the Minister to be careful what he wishes for when he talks about pegging our contribution to inflation, because inflation could very well rise shortly.

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Denis MacShane Portrait Mr Denis MacShane (Rotherham) (Lab)
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I stand as a resolute Thatcherite on this question. In 1940, Polish pilots came and grappled with the enemy, getting much closer than our pilots while risking their lives, and shooting down proportionally many more planes. Forty years later, Polish Solidarity helped to dig the grave of European Communism. What is our response? Today Poland is the fourth larger contributor to the UK rebate, despite being a much, much poorer country.

That is why, in the 1980s, the Prime Minister—now Lady Thatcher—was happy to see Britain’s contribution to the European Community budget, as it was then, rise from £656 million in 1984 to £2.54 billion in 1990. During the same period, the EC budget grew threefold. When taxed by Labour Members of Parliament—including my right hon. and good Friend the Member for Blackburn (Mr Straw), who said, “She has come back from Brussels, hauled down the Union flag and hauled up the white flag of surrender to Europe”—the Prime Minister said “No, no, no: we must help our new friends and encourage growth in the economies of the countries that are joining Europe.” Well, we are a different Britain now. We do not like the Poles, and we do not like Poland. We are saying to the Poles, “Keep signing a very large cheque for our rebate.”

There has been much talk about unaccountable transfers of money. May I draw the House’s attention to one very unaccountable and huge transfer of money? I refer to the £40 billion that it is proposed that we should give to the International Monetary Fund, which is unaccountable and secretive and whose staff salaries make the average EU salary look like pauper’s pay. That sum—£40 billion—is more than the entire amount raised in corporation tax in Britain each year. It is bigger than the combined budgets of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, the Ministry of Defence, the Department for International Development, the Department for Culture, Media and Sport, and all Departments except for the big spenders who have responsibility for costly areas such as the NHS and social security. We are happy to send that £40 billion to Washington with barely a nod or a debate in this House, but it is a far bigger sum than any amount being imposed in respect of Europe.

I agree with the points about maintaining budget discipline, but I ask the Minister to confirm in his winding-up speech that from 2014 to 2020 the EU budget is due to increase by 11%, which is a rise of well under 2% per year—far below current inflation rates in this country. I have every sympathy with the Minister, because I have done some of this work in Europe myself and, frankly, dealing with EU budget questions makes the Rosetta stone translation look like child’s play.

The bottom line is that the EU budget will not go above 1% of Europe’s gross national income because it cannot do so. There are debates to be had about how this money should be spent, and 85% of it comes straight back to nation states, including Britain, to spend on agriculture subsidies and structural and regional funds. If we did not have a common agricultural policy, we would have to have a British agricultural policy, and I can assure colleagues that our farmers’ lobby would extract a far bigger share of taxpayers’ money than it does under the CAP.

Martin Horwood Portrait Martin Horwood (Cheltenham) (LD)
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Will the right hon. Gentleman give way?

Denis MacShane Portrait Mr MacShane
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No, because I want to conclude.

This is not just a European question. The signal we are sending around the world is that we are open to business but are closed to foreigners, and that we want inward investment but want to disconnect from Europe. We are sending a very negative and dangerous signal that we do not like the biggest single market in the world and we do not want to be full partners with the rest of the 500 million people living under the rule of law and democracy.

I understand Front-Bench colleagues’ interpretation of the Robin Hood tax—the fair trade tax—but I feel a lot happier in the current economic crisis standing with the spirit of St Paul’s rather than the spirit of bean counters.

None Portrait Several hon. Members
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rose

Jobs and Growth

Denis MacShane Excerpts
Wednesday 12th October 2011

(12 years, 7 months ago)

Commons Chamber
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George Osborne Portrait Mr Osborne
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My first point is that Jonathan Portes and I have had our disagreements for the past 16 months. He was not my appointment to the Government, but the shadow Chancellor’s, and he is not working for the Government any more. The second thing I want to say is that he cannot have it both ways. He cannot say that Britain is alone in facing these problems, which was the implication of his speech, and then not look at long-term interest rates—or, indeed, the short-term interest rates—in the United States and Germany, which are lower than ours, although we are close to them. [Interruption.] The shadow Chancellor says that they are weak. One of our problems is that the German, US and French economies have ground to a halt. That is why we also need a solution to the eurozone crisis, which has hit all western economies. His idea that Britain is unique in the world in facing these problems is frankly laughable.

Denis MacShane Portrait Mr Denis MacShane (Rotherham) (Lab)
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My constituents listening to this will be unable to comprehend all the statistics that the Chancellor is placing in front of us. However, we are missing the human dimension. In Rotherham, for the first time in nearly 20 years, unemployment today rose above 10%. That is taking us back to the south Yorkshire de-industrialisation of the 1980s. We are talking about real people. Does the Chancellor have even the tiniest nanoscintilla of doubt about his policy? He has been in charge for nearly 18 months. Does he have any concerns that perhaps his policy is not working?

George Osborne Portrait Mr Osborne
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I am clear that what we are doing is tough but necessary because of the very difficult situation that we inherited. The right hon. Gentleman talked about the impact in south Yorkshire. We inherited a record budget deficit and a bigger recession than in any other country in the world apart from Japan. That is what we are recovering from. Arguably, it was the biggest banking crash in the entire history of the country—at a time when those banks were supposed to have been regulated by the Government of which he was a Minister. That is what we are dealing with. Of course, it is extremely difficult, and many countries are facing problems at the moment, but I think that the steps that we have taken have helped us to weather this global debt storm and kept interest rates low for people in Rotherham. I shall come on to the steps that we can take to ensure that Rotherham does not suffer in the future as it has done in recent years under the Labour Government.

Eurozone

Denis MacShane Excerpts
Monday 10th October 2011

(12 years, 7 months ago)

Commons Chamber
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Nigel Evans Portrait Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Nigel Evans)
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Order. I am going to ask for very short questions as we will move on at 5.45 pm, irrespective of whether Members are still standing.

Denis MacShane Portrait Mr Denis MacShane (Rotherham) (Lab)
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For five centuries, British policy has been to oppose any hegemon on Europe, whether a single religion, a single state, a single economic model or a single ideology. Why is the Chancellor so keen on creating a fiscal and monetary union that would dictate terms of commerce, trade and banking rules to this country?

George Osborne Portrait Mr Osborne
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That was quite a sweep of history. Of course, Britain has always sought to maintain the balance of power in Europe and one could argue that the enlargement policy was quite a successful extension of that policy, but the decision has already been taken with the monetary union and we have to make it work because we would be directly impacted by its failure.

European Union Fiscal Union

Denis MacShane Excerpts
Wednesday 14th September 2011

(12 years, 8 months ago)

Westminster Hall
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Westminster Hall is an alternative Chamber for MPs to hold debates, named after the adjoining Westminster Hall.

Each debate is chaired by an MP from the Panel of Chairs, rather than the Speaker or Deputy Speaker. A Government Minister will give the final speech, and no votes may be called on the debate topic.

This information is provided by Parallel Parliament and does not comprise part of the offical record

William Cash Portrait Mr Cash
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Absolutely right. Germany has gained much, but now the chickens are coming home to roost. The system is not working because the Germans have made investments in other countries. If we look at the Greek sovereign debt situation, an enormous amount of investment—by far the greatest amount—is from Germany, followed by France. So the sovereign debt question is now part of the overall problem of Europe as a whole, and the mess created, which many of us predicted, is now with us. Any sovereign debt default will become all the more serious the longer that the European Union attempts to sustain the euro. Economists such as Tim Congdon and others have made that case, but it is absolutely clear that the situation will get worse the longer that the European Union tries to put sticking plaster over what is a clear case for complete renegotiation of the treaties to get some sanity back into the situation.

The idea that those of us who are eurorealists and who have argued this case for so long would take any satisfaction from the fact that the situation might implode is complete rubbish. Of course we do not want it to implode; we want to get stability back, to reduce our deficit and to increase growth, but none of those things can happen if we have over-regulation, too much integration and too much governance from European institutions, which prevent oxygen reaching our small and medium-sized businesses. That is an issue not only for this country, but for other countries, which all face greater and greater unemployment. I therefore strongly urge the Prime Minister to sort this out at the next summit.

We cannot create growth unless the money to pay for the public sector comes from reasonable taxation on private enterprise. It must be reasonable taxation, because growth must come from the development of small and medium-sized businesses. There is no way we will reduce the deficit if we continue trading as we are with a Europe that is bankrupt, with the exception of Germany. Incidentally, while we had a £53 billion trade deficit with the EU in 2010—that went up by £40 billion in one year—we had a trade surplus with the rest of the world of £7 billion, and it could be much more if we made the big strategic change that I am proposing. That, too, underpins my resistance to the idea of fiscal union.

Fiscal union will lead to greater implosion, greater sovereign debt, more defaults and more trouble. It might also—I say this cautiously—lead to the rise of the far right, because that is the consequence of implosion in democracies and of their being forced into situations where their people start saying, “We’re not going to put up with this any more.” One has to be careful about what is done. That is the dangerous crossroads we are at, and the Prime Minister must make the right call.

Denis MacShane Portrait Mr Denis MacShane (Rotherham) (Lab)
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As I understand it, the Chancellor is rather keen on fiscal union. Does that mean that the hon. Gentleman opposes the Chancellor’s point of view?

William Cash Portrait Mr Cash
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The answer is yes. I did not say it so emphatically, but I said so when the Chancellor made his announcement in the House. I said that even Edward Heath would not have done what we were seeing now, so that probably sums the situation up quite well.

In my exchanges with the Prime Minister about fiscal union—I understand that these things can come out of the blue, but I wonder about the extent to which that was the case—he said:

“Of course, it will have an effect on us, but the clear rule for a referendum…is whether we are transferring power from Britain to Brussels.”

I do not agree that that is the basis for a referendum. It would be under the European Union Act 2011, but where a European decision, treaty or other legal instrument —in this case, there will be a mixture of those—applied on the face of it only to the eurozone, there would, under section 4, be no referendum.

That is why I have introduced a Bill saying we should have a referendum, and that Bill is supported by no less than six Select Committee Chairs, plus some distinguished Members, such as my right hon. Friend the Member for Wokingham (Mr Redwood), and members of the new intake who have taken a great interest in these matters. As I have said, the Bill has been presented, and the good news is that there will be a ten-minute rule Bill debate in October—the Leader of the House is here, and he knows that already. The Bill is intended to advance the case for a referendum on fiscal union.

In the Liaison Committee, the Prime Minister seemed pretty confident that there would not be a treaty. When I said that

“you are implying that there might not be a treaty” ,

he said—this was on 6 September—

“There is an important point on the issue of the treaty…Let us be clear: no one in Europe at the moment is currently talking about a new major treaty to put in place deeper fiscal union or changes in the eurozone. That may well happen in future…and if it were to happen, there would be consequences for Britain. Britain should think carefully about how to maximise our national interest”.

My answer to that is, first, that we now know that there will be a treaty, because the Chancellor of the Exchequer announced it from Marseilles. Secondly, I do not see how Britain can maximise its national interests when the new treaty, by its very nature, will erode the heart of those vital national interests.

There will be consequences for Britain, which raises another issue. We know there will be a treaty. As Mr Barroso said this morning—the Prime Minister has said this, too—it will be dealt with through a mixed bag of measures. Part of the process will no doubt be dealt with through enhanced co-operation, although the legality of that is very questionable indeed, and the European Scrutiny Committee will certainly look at that. Part of the process may also be dealt with through European Council decisions and intergovernmentalism, if those involved can get away with it. However, the bottom line is that the policy and the judgment are wrong, and we should not promote them. The best thing that I can suggest, therefore, is that we go to the next summit, put down a clear marker and insist that we will refuse to accept the treaty for fiscal union.

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Kelvin Hopkins Portrait Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North) (Lab)
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I am grateful to have an opportunity to speak in the debate and to support the hon. Member for Stone (Mr Cash) in his concerns about fiscal union.

The issue has been raised because the eurozone is in deep trouble and is starting seriously to fall apart. A fiscal union would mean that one had substantial redistribution between the wealthy parts and the poor parts of an area. That would be acceptable in a democratic member state with a meaningful polity, but the European Union is not one. I suspect the German people would have something to say about such a proposal, if it ever went ahead. As we have seen, the German representative on the European Central Bank has already resigned because he knows that such a proposal will cause serious problems for Germany and is completely unacceptable.

I have something of track record on this issue. Thirty-two years ago, I did not think I would be speaking in such a debate. At that time, I wrote a brief for the general secretary of the union I worked for—the National and Local Government Officers Association. Economic policy was one of my areas, and I wrote a brief urging him to suggest to the TUC that we should not join the European monetary system, or the snake, which was a forerunner of the exchange rate mechanism and the single currency. He took my brief to the TUC, banged the table and demanded that the TUC take that line, which it did. The TUC then went along to see Denis Healey and banged the table, and he did not join the snake. I do not say it was all down to my brief, but at least I was on the same side, and we got the right answer. Unfortunately we joined the exchange rate mechanism a little later, and that was a mistake, but I could see the direction of travel then, and that it would be a disaster for both democracy and economics.

My hon. Friend the Member for Blackley and Broughton (Graham Stringer), who is no longer in his place, raised the question of democracy. It must have certain features: not just votes, but votes for people who will have power—Governments and representatives who can make decisions on voters’ behalf, and make the votes meaningful. If the vote has no meaning at all—if it is just a declaration and power is held by other people—that is not a true democracy.

Another feature of democracy is the ability to change Governments, as we have just done. The change we made was not to my taste, but nevertheless that is democracy. The way to keep the far right, and extremists of all kinds, away is to have a meaningful democracy, in which Governments can be changed, and where they have power over the lives of the people they represent. If they have no power there is no point, which is when street politics takes over. We do not want street politics. The things that happened on the extreme right and left before the second world war made for a very unpleasant time, which led to the war. We do not want that to happen again.

Denis MacShane Portrait Mr MacShane
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Does my hon. Friend take comfort from the fact that the most dramatic rise of the far right has been in Sweden, while the most dramatic and horrible single incident associated with it was the terrible slaughter in Norway? There was also the anti-Muslim referendum in Switzerland on places of worship, sponsored by the hard-right nationalist SVP. Does my hon. Friend take comfort from all those countries either being outside the European Union or not using the euro?

Kelvin Hopkins Portrait Kelvin Hopkins
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

With the far right we need to look at each individual case; I think that in Norway it was just one lunatic—an obsessive. Of course the far right attracts people who I would suggest are not entirely sane. Nevertheless, the far right in general has not taken hold in post-war Europe because we have had meaningful democracies; but I think those meaningful democracies are starting to fade. Fiscal union would, again, mean democracy taking more of a back seat.

It is clear that the founding fathers and mothers of the European Union in the 1950s wanted a world in which electors did not have the power to change Governments; they wanted power safely in the hands of a stable body. That is why the Commission was set up—to make sure that we do not have distasteful changes of politics and Government. However, changes of Government mean that people believe in democracy and work for it. They know that they will have a chance of getting their party into power next time. I shall certainly work hard next time to make sure that our party comes back into power; and no doubt our Conservative and Liberal Democrat colleagues will do the same. That is why democracy means something: we know it matters because those elected have power, and because it is possible to change the Government. That cannot be done with the European Union.

We are in a European crisis. The hon. Member for Stone constantly refers to Europe, but I refer to the European Union. The European Union is not Europe: they are two concepts. Europe is a wonderful continent full of fabulous people and great culture, history, music, art, languages, and literature; but the European Union is a political construct imposed on some of the countries of Europe. I fully support the idea of a different kind of European Union—a loose association of democratic member states co-operating for mutual benefit. I do not support a bureaucratic and anti-democratic machine that controls our lives and makes our votes decreasingly meaningful at national level.

The polity over which a Government govern must also be meaningful. If national boundaries are dissolved, and other structures are imposed—especially if those are not democratically controlled—that is not democracy. The great thing about democracy is that it is accepted these days that it will govern a national state. I am an internationalist, but I think that internationalism is about good relations between states, not the abolition of states, national boundaries or national entities. We get on extremely well with other states around the world because we co-operate across national boundaries, but we do not want them to disappear completely. We have culture, language and history that unite us in particular polities. That is why Germany, for example, could unite its east and west and spend a vast amount of money rebuilding East Germany. It was accepted that it was part of Germany. I doubt whether it would have spent so much money rebuilding, say, Greece—because Greece is not part of Germany but a separate country.

I think that many people would be upset if the same kind of money that went into rebuilding East Germany went into helping Greece. Greece now has the opportunity to get out of the euro, recreate the drachma and devalue. Suddenly, Greece would become the cheapest place in Europe for people to holiday, and the tourist industry would take off like nobody’s business. Greece would recover, because that is what it will be good at. It is a beautiful place, where people go on holiday. That is the logic for Greece.

The problem, of course, is that banks—and particularly French banks—have lent vast sums of money to Greece, and will be in trouble if that happens. However, as was said in a good discussion on “Newsnight” last night, either the euro will collapse and there will be a crisis with many people losing their money, or we will deconstruct the euro in a progressive and managed way, and some banks will have problems. Then Governments will have to step in and no doubt recapitalise those banks, if they choose to keep them alive. That is a difficult choice, but the logic is for countries that cannot sustain membership of the eurozone to get out, recreate their own currencies and devalue.

Ireland’s major economic partner is Britain. The British isles is not a single economy, but we are close. The fact that we are not in the euro and have depreciated our currency substantially means that the poor Irish, who are stuck in the euro, are massively over-valued relative to Britain, and so have a trading problem with Britain. I have suggested to Irish friends that they should recreate the punt, depreciate and rejoin the sterling zone, which is where they belong, instead of remaining in the eurozone, where they do not. I have not had any positive answer to that suggestion, but that is the logic of where we should be going.

I could speak for much longer, but others want to speak and I have probably said enough for the time being. I support the hon. Member for Stone in arguing the strong case against fiscal union.