The Chancellor of the Exchequer (Mr George Osborne)
I beg to move,
That this House has considered the matter of the economy.
I am pleased that the House has been given this early opportunity to debate last week’s autumn statement and to discuss the economic challenges that our country and continent face. Being conscious that many people have asked to speak, I shall try to tailor my remarks appropriately.
Seven days ago I set out the Office for Budget Responsibility’s latest independent forecasts and the measures that we would take to reinforce our country’s fiscal credibility and keep our interest rates low, increase the supply of money and credit to ensure that those rates were passed on to businesses and home buyers, and lay the foundations for a more resilient, more competitive and more balanced economy.
That was one week ago, and in the seven days since events have provided further confirmation of why these measures are necessary: countries such as Ireland and Italy have announced further budget measures from VAT rises to pension age increases, reminding us of the value of getting ahead of the markets not following them, and the credit ratings of 15 eurozone countries have been put on negative watch, while here in Britain interest rates have stayed low despite the deterioration of the fiscal forecast, which has meant that last week we continued to borrow at below 2.5%. [Interruption.] I thought that the shadow Chancellor was about to intervene, but we shall have to wait.
Last week I answered questions from Members who wished to ask me about the detailed policy measures in the autumn statement, and I am happy to answer such questions again today, but I thought this might also be a good opportunity to address three broader issues: first, the crisis in the eurozone; secondly, how we believe that the UK banking system should respond to the ongoing crisis and the advice that we received on Thursday from the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee; and thirdly, given the eurozone debt crisis and the banking issues that we face, why the credibility of our fiscal policy must be constantly reinforced. Let me take each in turn.
On the eurozone, our overriding responsibility is to protect and advance the interests of the United Kingdom. Those interests are best served by the countries of the euro finding a path out of the crisis, while also ensuring that our economic interests in the single market are protected. There is no doubt that the crisis is having a chilling effect on the British economy and destroying jobs here. In the words of the Governor of the Bank of England last Thursday, it is, in his judgment, the primary cause of the downward revision of the British growth forecasts, as it was one of the primary causes of the OBR’s downward revision of its growth forecast. Of course, the OBR warned us that it had assumed an orderly resolution of the crisis over the next two years. This impact sadly comes as no surprise, when 40% of our exports are to the euro area and £1 in every £7 that Britain exports goes to Ireland, Portugal, Greece, Spain or Italy. Although we must plan for all contingencies—and we are—we should not lose sight of the truth that Britain has a fundamental national interest in the eurozone sorting out its problems, even though we are not in the euro and will not be while this Government are in office.
Action is required by the eurozone on three counts. First, as Germany has argued, and as I made clear in July, there needs to be much tighter fiscal discipline within member states and much tighter fiscal co-ordination within the euro. This is the remorseless logic of monetary union. Secondly, those reforms to economic governance should provide the confidence in the future discipline that the European Central Bank requires to take whatever action is necessary to protect financial confidence. We have been calling consistently for a big firewall, properly capitalised banks and lasting structural reform, and we now need that delivered. Thirdly, all this will succeed only if there is an improvement in the competitiveness of the whole of Europe, and also, crucially, in the competitiveness of the peripheral eurozone countries vis-à-vis countries such as Germany. That will involve difficult change, but it is encouraging to see some European Governments, such as Ireland and Italy, now starting to take the necessary steps on issues such as pensions and labour market reform.
Britain has a huge interest in all that happening and has put forward specific proposals to ensure that our entire continent is not priced out of the world economy. As an open, trading nation, we benefit from the single market. We would like it strengthened and deepened, but we will also insist that our interests in the single market are protected from any future developments, including our interest in financial services. That is the approach that Britain will take to the European Council later this week. We need better regulated financial services to protect our economy when things go wrong, which is one reason why we commissioned John Vickers’s report. We want a single market in Europe so that our banks, our insurance companies and our pension companies can sell their products abroad, but 70% of Europe’s financial services are based in London. We will ensure as we approach this European Council that the interests of the European Union 27 are protected and that Britain’s national interests are protected too. That is our obligation to the British people.
Let me turn from the eurozone crisis to what all this means for our banks. British banks are well capitalised and liquid. Not one of them was identified as a cause for concern in the recent exercise by the European Banking Authority. I remind people that retail deposits in British banks or the subsidiaries of foreign banks here in Britain are protected by our country’s Financial Services Compensation Scheme, which ensures that £85,000 per person per bank is protected. Individuals with deposits in a UK branch of a European bank are protected by their national schemes.
The eurozone crisis is tightening credit conditions across the world and across Europe. The Bank of England announced today the introduction of a new contingency liquidity facility—the extended collateral term repo—which it will make available if needed. In addition, to protect small businesses from the higher costs of credit, we are pursuing the credit easing policy that I set out last week. I have set a ceiling of £40 billion on those operations, and have committed to £20 billion of guarantees through the national loan guarantee scheme, and £1 billion through the business finance partnership. Although the means are different, the ends we seek are the same.
Angela Smith (Penistone and Stocksbridge) (Lab)
Is not the Chancellor’s credit easing scheme an admission that his earlier deal—the Merlin deal—has completely and utterly failed?
Mr Osborne
The Merlin deal was for this year, and it was a commitment to increase gross lending to small businesses, which is what the banks have done. Of course, the previous Government, having tried net lending targets, then had gross lending targets with just two banks. The Merlin deal extended that to all the main high street banks. It was a one-year-only deal; the credit easing package that I have set out is, I think, what is required—not least in view of the tightening credit conditions across the continent of Europe and, indeed, across the world at the moment. The Government are using the credibility they have in the financial markets to borrow at low interest rates and passing those rates on to small businesses. As I said at Treasury questions, we are seeking state aid clearance and hope to have the national loan guarantee scheme operational by early next year.
At a time like this, we also have to be alert to risks across the financial system. One of the weaknesses of the tripartite regime is that no one felt they had a particular responsibility for monitoring the overall health of the financial system or felt they had the tools to do anything about it. We have created a Financial Policy Committee to do just that. We have established it on an interim basis to get it operating as soon as possible, instead of waiting for next year’s primary legislation. The FPC reported last week. Let me put it on the record that it is absolutely the job of the Governor of the Bank of England to be frank with the country about the challenges we face.
As the Financial Policy Committee warned very starkly:
“Sovereign and banking risks emanating from the euro area remain the most significant and immediate threat to UK financial stability.”
The committee encouraged banks to improve the resilience of their balance sheets in a way that does not exacerbate market fragility or reduce lending to the real economy. Given what it calls
“the current exceptionally threatening environment, the Committee recommends that, if bank earnings were insufficient to build capital levels further, banks should limit distributions and give serious consideration to raising external capital in the coming months.”
That is the point put to me by the Chairman of the Treasury Select Committee just an hour ago at Treasury questions. Limiting distribution includes restricting bonuses. Excessive pay in the financial sector is a concern at any time because of the perverse incentives it creates.
When it comes to linking pay to performance and being transparent, we are implementing the most comprehensive regime of any financial centre anywhere in the world. Today the Treasury launches a consultation that will extend transparency arrangements at large banks by requiring the eight highest-paid non-board executives to disclose their pay and bonus arrangements. This will cover an estimated 15 banks, including the largest UK banks and the UK banking operations of large foreign banks.
Mr Osborne
I will certainly give way; I hope the hon. Gentleman will welcome this change.
Gordon Banks
Will the Chancellor tell us how transparency will actually reduce the income of those to whom he refers?
Mr Osborne
Transparency should make it clear to the owners of these banks—the shareholders—what the pay and bonus levels and the remuneration levels are; it will then be for them to take action. I am aware of our responsibilities as a shareholder in some banks. As I mentioned at Treasury questions, an encouraging statement was made this morning by the Association of British Insurers, which represents the shareholders who own many of these banks, saying clearly that it does not accept current levels of pay in the financial sector and that it expects reform. As I said, we had a very clear warning from the Financial Policy Committee to the financial system that it should be limiting its distributions at a time like this.
Mr Osborne
I give way first to the shadow Chancellor and then to the member of the Treasury Committee.
Ed Balls
Labour Members welcome the Chancellor’s conversion to transparency in financial affairs. He will know that, following the Walker review, a piece of legislation is on the statute book that requires the publication of the salaries of all employees paid more than £1 million. Given that the legislation is on the statute book but that this Government have chosen not to enact it, will he now enact it and therefore bring about full transparency for anyone in the City earning more than £1 million?
Mr Osborne
I think that, in the interests of transparency, the right hon. Gentleman should have told the House that he was the City Minister who, for several years, had the opportunity to introduce these changes. What about the opportunity that he had to do precisely the things that we are doing today? When it comes to transparency in pay, we have consulted David Walker and others, and we think that this is exactly the right approach. We will introduce the changes unilaterally in the United Kingdom, although it is a significant financial centre, and I think that they will set an example that the rest of the world will follow.
Mr Osborne
I will give way if one single Opposition Member concedes that Labour was in government for 13 years and presided over a banking system that collapsed.
Mr Osborne
And the right hon. Member for Delyn (Mr Hanson) was a Minister in that Government.
Mr Osborne
Anyone listening to Opposition Members would believe that under the mythical Labour Government that apparently existed, all that information was disclosed. But was it disclosed? There was no disclosure whatsoever. I suggest to the shadow Chancellor—the former City Minister—and others that they back the unilateral measures that we are taking, which will make the financial centre here in London the most transparent in the world.
The advice of the Financial Policy Committee is clear. Banks should consider limiting bonuses this year and using profits to strengthen their balance sheets in the face of the eurozone debt storm. Let me make this plain: stronger banks, not larger bonuses, should be the priority this winter, and money that is earned should be used to build balance sheets and not to enhance payouts. That is the advice from the Bank of England, and that is the advice that the Government now expect to be followed.
Helen Goodman (Bishop Auckland) (Lab)
Will the Chancellor tell us what he, as a major shareholder in some of the largest banks in the country, will do about the bank bonuses on which he can have a direct impact?
Mr Osborne
We restricted cash payouts in the Royal Bank of Scotland in the last bonus round to less than £2,000. That is what we did when we had the opportunity. The hon. Lady was a Minister in the last Government. Perhaps in 30 years’ time we will discover that she was sending letters to the Treasury asking “What are we doing about transparency in pay in the City? Why do we not introduce a permanent bank levy?”, and saying “I am really worried about the regulation of Britain’s financial services.” We will just have to wait for 30 years to find out whether, when she held Executive office, she once raised the concerns that she now raises in opposition.
Both the slow repair of our banking system and the crisis in the eurozone were identified by the Office for Budget Responsibility as causes of weaker economic activity. They are also a reminder of why it is so essential for Britain to maintain its fiscal credibility as we deal with a budget deficit that is higher than almost any other in the world. A month ago I was told by the OBR, as part of the formal preparation for the autumn forecast, that weaker economic activity would give Britain a less than 50% chance of meeting the fiscal mandate and the debt target that I had set out unless we took further action.
I believe that at that moment the OBR proved not just its independence, but its worth. It forced the Government to confront the issues at hand, and to use the weeks available to us before the statement to come up with a credible response. We know that under the previous forecast regime, those weeks would have been used to fiddle the forecasts, to tweak assumptions about the output gap, and to pencil in over-optimistic numbers on tax receipts: in other words, to do all the things that my predecessor, in his memoirs, says were done during his dealings with No. 10 Downing street. It would have been a case of choosing economic figures to fit the Government’s policies, rather than choosing Government policies to respond to the economic figures.
I believe that the existence of the Office for Budget Responsibility, which was consistently opposed by the shadow Chancellor in every position that he held in the last Government, has given the whole of Parliament confidence in the integrity of the forecast.
Stephen Timms (East Ham) (Lab)
Did the Chancellor use those weeks to rethink his plan, because the OBR was telling him that the assumptions on which his plan was based were mistaken? We were told that employment would rise every year, but that has not happened, and it is not going to happen. We were told that the budget would be balanced in this Parliament, and that is not going to happen either. Surely the whole plan should have been rethought?
Mr Osborne
The OBR was also very clear in its analysis of why there had been weaker growth. Over the past seven days the shadow Chancellor and others have paraded around the TV studios citing the OBR’s numbers while refusing to accept the OBR’s analysis of what lies behind those numbers. The OBR is very clear; it gives three reasons for the deterioration in the economic forecasts. First, it attributes the primary reason for the weakness since its last forecast to the external inflation shock of the high oil price. Secondly, it attributes the current weakness in the economic position to the lack of confidence caused by the eurozone crisis. Thirdly, it says its assessment both of the boom before 2007 and the subsequent bust and of the impact of the repair of the financial system is greater than it had previously estimated. That is its independent analysis. The Opposition cannot agree that we should now have an independent body and accept the figures it produces, only then to reject the analysis on which those figures were arrived at.
Sheila Gilmore (Edinburgh East) (Lab)
The OBR does not say that the cause of reduced growth is that the recession was found to be deeper. It does say that the recession was found to be deeper but, crucially, it also says the recovery during 2009 was stronger than previously forecast and that the further decline in growth happened only in the latter part of 2010.
Mr Osborne
The OBR is very clear that the cause of its downgrade of the trend growth rate is the—[Interruption.] Is it any wonder that the economic credibility of the Labour party is falling week after week? The shadow Chancellor has backed it into the incredible position where only Communist parties in western Europe agree with it. The reason he has done that has nothing to do with the future political prospects of the Labour party. Rather, it has everything to do with his own personal record. He cannot be the Labour politician who admits that his party made mistakes in the run-up to the 2007 crisis, because he was the Labour Government’s chief economic adviser. That is the position the Opposition find themselves in, and Labour Members know it. They are all going around telling anyone who will listen that that is their problem. Until they face up to the reality of the economic situation confronting this country—a reality they helped to create—they will not be listened to by anyone in this country.
The choice we faced when we saw the OBR’s first-round forecast was not whether to fiddle the figures; instead, it was whether we should take action to respond to the changed economic circumstances. We could have done nothing, but given international events I thought that was not a risk worth taking. It may have seemed to be the easier option, but not when we considered the possible consequences for the credibility of our country in the credit markets and the risk of a rise in interest rates of the kind that so many of our neighbours have experienced. The other option was to take further action to ensure Britain was on course to meet the fiscal commitments we have made, and that was what we chose to do, with a package of measures designed to tighten policy in the medium term while using short-term savings in current spending to fund one-off capital investment in our country’s infrastructure.
As I explained last week, we have put the total managed expenditure totals for 2015-16 and 2016-17 on a declining path. We have made changes to the tax credit entitlements. We set pay increases in the public sector for the two years after the freeze at an average of 1%. We have recalibrated overseas aid spending so we hit 0.7% of national income in 2013. We have also increased the state pension age to 67, starting from 2026.
That money saved in the short term has been used to fund the youth contract, new nursery provision to two-year-olds, new free schools and school places, and a major programme of road and rail building, and to help with the costs of living by extending the small business rate relief, keeping rail fare increases low, and freezing petrol duty next month, but the permanent savings—
Mr Osborne
I have given way to both hon. Members, and I know that many people want to speak in this debate.
The permanent savings we have made reaffirm Britain’s commitment to dealing with its debts. Who backs this commitment? The international organisations do. The OECD says that
“the ambitious fiscal consolidation has bolstered credibility and helped maintain low bond yields”.
The head of the IMF, whom the shadow Chancellor was talking about, said when she came to the UK that
“strong fiscal consolidation is essential to restore debt sustainability”,
and that the Government’s “policy stance remains appropriate”.
During Treasury questions, the shadow Chancellor was, I think, quoting The New York Times. What he did not quote was the Financial Times, where he actually worked. It said that
“the Government’s plans for fiscal consolidation have allowed Britain to regain the confidence of investors at a time when all too many countries have forfeited it”.
That is the kind of editorial he would have written when he was a leader writer there. The Economist says that the credibility the Government have achieved is “priceless”. The CBI has supported what we have done. The Institute of Directors said that we did the right thing. The Federation of Small Businesses, which the shadow Chancellor often quotes, and the British Chambers of Commerce have both welcomed the measures we announced for business.
Lisa Nandy (Wigan) (Lab)
We have heard a lot about what the Chancellor thinks about the Labour party. How many of the 100,000 additional children now growing up in poverty under his watch also support his plans, and what is he planning to do about that?
Mr Osborne
On the same measure that the hon. Lady uses, child poverty rose by 200,000 in the last Parliament. [Interruption.] She says, “We took those children out.” Child poverty in the last Parliament rose by 200,000 on the exact same measure that she is using. What we are doing is investing in nursery education provision for the poorest children, which never existed before, in a pupil premium, in free schools and in new school places—that is exactly what we are doing to tackle the causes of poverty as well as the symptoms.
Nadhim Zahawi (Stratford-on-Avon) (Con)
On the question of whom the nation blames, why does the Chancellor think that a recent ICM poll showed that people thought that the debt inherited from the Labour Government was the biggest single cause of the current slow-down?
Mr Osborne
The reason they think that is because it is true. This, again, is the absolutely hopeless position that Labour under the shadow Chancellor have put themselves in, but frankly, that is for them to work out. If I may declare an interest, we very much want him to stay in his post for the next three and a half years: he is the best recruiting sergeant we have.
The Governor of the Bank of England—appointed by the right hon. Gentleman, no doubt, when he was the chief economic adviser—said this last week:
“This is exactly the right macro-economic response to the position in which we find ourselves”.
And who is left opposing this credible action, this macro-economic response? The Labour party, which is now advancing this new theory that Britain’s low interest rates in this debt crisis are a sign of policy failure, not policy success. That was the argument we heard last week. The shadow Chancellor talked in his response to my statement of
“the illiterate fantasy that low long-term interest rates in Britain are a sign of enhanced credibility”—[Official Report, 29 November 2011; Vol. 536, c. 812.]
I pointed out that, on that basis, Italy’s rates of 7% were a policy triumph and Greece’s 30% rates were an economic miracle.
In the intervening week, I looked for evidence to support the argument that the shadow Chancellor has been advancing. I have not found it, but I did come across the very interesting “Ken Dixon lecture” to the department of economics at the university of York. It was given in 2004 by the chief economic adviser to the Treasury—Mr Edward Balls. He told a no doubt gripped audience of students about the importance of lower debt, of running surpluses in good times, of keeping deficits under control. He then cited the market interest rates that Britain was paying on its debt, versus neighbouring countries’, as the fruits of economic success. He boasted that the UK was borrowing money more cheaply than Germany and he hailed low interest rates as
“the simplest measure of monetary and fiscal policy credibility”.
Does he still believe that?
Mr Osborne
In the situation we face at the moment, where countries around the world, particularly those in the western world, face a challenge from the markets about their credibility, the countries with credibility have been able to keep their interest rates down and those without credibility have seen their interest rates rise. The right hon. Gentleman said that low “long-term interest rates” are
“the simplest measure of monetary and fiscal policy credibility”.
I want to know whether he still believes that to be the case—yes or no?
Ed Balls
This is the second time that the Chancellor has not understood the question today and has therefore not been able to answer it. Of course it is the case that in a normal operating economy that is how things are, but in a liquidity trap it is different, and that is where we are. That is why when American debt was downgraded in August, America’s long-term interest rates fell; they did not rise. Let me quote to him what the chief economist at Capital Economics said this August:
“Signs that the UK’s economic recovery has ground to a standstill have led markets to revise down their interest rate expectations”.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research has said:
“The reason people are marking down gilt yields is because”—
they think that the UK—
“economy is weak”.
In a liquidity trap, long-term interest rates are a sign of the growth potential of the economy. It really worries me that the Chancellor does not understand the economics of this.
Mr Osborne
The right hon. Gentleman quoted the chief economist or head of the NIESR, but did not happen to declare to the House the interest that this person used to work for the shadow Chancellor. I do not agree with his analysis.
Mr Osborne
I will explain the economics very simply: if people do not think you can pay your debts in the world, they charge you a lot more interest on those debts.
I have actually bothered to read the right hon. Gentleman’s article in The Times today, in which he says that Labour would take
“tough decisions on tax and public spending.”
Will he get up and give us, either now in an intervention or in his speech, just half a dozen examples of the tough decisions he is prepared to take?
This is the shadow Chancellor who has opposed the increase in the VAT that the previous Government were planning, who opposed the increase in North sea oil taxation and who opposed the increase in capital gains tax—Labour Members do not know that, but he did actually oppose that. He opposes capping housing benefit, which was actually in the Labour manifesto; the reform of employment and support allowance; the changes to tax credits; and reforming legal aid. The Labour party has campaigned against every single change to the Ministry of Defence budget. There is not one single budget in the entirety of Whitehall that the Labour party has proposed cutting.
That is from the shadow Chancellor who says that he would take “tough decisions” on tax and spending. His position is, “We would not take them now. We would take them in the medium term.” That is his argument, if I understand it correctly. In the past seven days, he has opposed our measures to restrain public sector pay after the pay freeze comes to an end; opposed the path for public spending that we have set out for 2015-16 and 2016-17, which is in the medium term; opposed the raising of the state pension age, which is what is being done in Australia, Germany and America—the country he keeps citing. No wonder his economic policy has absolutely no credibility whatsoever. And, of course, he opposes the Government’s active enterprise policy—lower and simpler corporate tax rates; the new enterprise zones; the housing market changes that will revive the right to buy; planning reforms; and the changes to employment law.
Let me discuss just one measure that was announced seven days ago: the seed enterprise investment scheme. A group of entrepreneurs, including those who used to support the Labour party, wrote to the paper and said that the scheme will
“help the next generation of British innovations to become the next generation of great British businesses.”
This country faces some of the most serious challenges in its modern history. We are picking up the pieces of the biggest boom which became the biggest bust, and now we face a sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone. Unlike the shadow Chancellor, we are not the quack doctor promising a miracle cure. The action we have taken will help to take Britain through this storm and lay the foundations of a far more sustainable and balanced prosperity in the future, and I commend the autumn statement to the House.
Ed Balls
Abandon the Darling plan? It is the Chancellor who is borrowing £37 billion more than under the Darling plan. That is because of what is happening to jobs, growth and the living standards of families in our country, with 9,500 families in Tamworth hit by the cut in child tax credit announced last week. I will not read the next figure out; I will spare the hon. Gentleman’s blushes.
As we heard in Treasury questions earlier, the IMF was right: growth is necessary for fiscal credibility. The IMF urged the Chancellor to change course if growth undershot current expectations. The Chancellor did not even know the figures at Treasury questions this afternoon, but in October the IMF advised him to change course and to delay the planned consolidation if growth undershot. At that time the IMF was forecasting 1.1% growth this year; it has come in at 0.9%. For next year it was forecasting 1.6% growth; it is now forecast to be 0.7%. If that is not growth clearly undershooting expectations, I do not know what is.
In May the OECD called for the Government to slow the pace of consolidation if the economy undershot. The Chancellor likes to quote the OECD in support of his policies, so let me tell him what its chief economist said only last week. He told the Chancellor to
“contemplate easing up on spending cuts”
if events turned out to be
“a lot bleaker than even the bleak outlook that we have.”
That is not exactly a ringing endorsement of the Chancellor’s plans.
Mr George Osborne
The right hon. Gentleman has just quoted the OECD’s chief economist. The same person said on 28 November that “plan A is working”. The OECD also said:
“The ambitious fiscal consolidation has bolstered credibility and helped maintain low bond yields, leaving room for automatic stabilisers to work fully”.
The person the shadow Chancellor is quoting in the House of Commons in defence of his policy has said that “plan A is working”. Will he now correct the record?
Ed Balls
Only this Chancellor, out of his depth and out of touch, could come to this House and claim that the forecasts he set out last week showed that plan A was working. How can it be working when we have record levels of unemployment? How can it be working when growth has flatlined? How can it be working when he is borrowing £158 billion more than he planned a year ago?
I have seen the transcript of the Sky interview that the Chancellor is quoting, and I understand the diplomacy of the OECD. However, the chief economist said that the Chancellor should
“contemplate easing up on spending cuts”
if events turned out to be
“a lot bleaker than even the bleak outlook that we have.”
How much bleaker do they have to get? How much bleaker for families? How much bleaker for jobs and young people? How much bleaker for borrowing?
We were told a year ago that the Chancellor would not change course because his plan was working. Now, even though it is clearly not working, the Government still will not change course. The Prime Minister says that we cannot borrow our way out of a crisis, but that is exactly what the Chancellor has been forced to do. He is borrowing billions more to pay for the high unemployment, stagnant growth and rising benefits bill that his plan has delivered. The Chancellor made the wrong choice a year ago. He is now making a second catastrophic choice in sticking to a failing plan, when what Britain needs is a plan that will work.
Any British Government would be borrowing at the moment. There is no doubt about that.