Strategic Defence Review

Lord Walney Excerpts

Wednesday 9th October 2024 Grand Committee

[Lord Walney (CB)]

My Lords, I commend the remarks of the noble Lord, Lord Verdirame, and associate myself with them. I draw the attention of the Committee to my interests in the register. I will add two brief points to the very many erudite contributions that have already been made in the debate.

The first is on the importance of the AUKUS alliance to our future strategic defence. The deal signed in 2021 between the UK, Australia and America was genuinely ground-breaking and historic. In the coming period, coinciding with this parliamentary term, we must realise the ambitions of both pillars of the agreement: to deliver a conventionally armed but nuclear-powered submarine to Australia through the joint industrial and technological endeavour of the UK and Australia, aided, as ever, by the Americans; and to have increased co-operation on a range of advanced capabilities, currently listed as undersea capabilities, quantum, artificial intelligence and autonomy, advanced cyber, hypersonic and counter-hypersonic system capabilities, electronic warfare, innovation and information sharing.

Incoming Labour Ministers commendably focused on the AUKUS agreement while in opposition and have given unequivocal backing to its continuation. The risk is that in this highly congested matrix of threats in the middle of which we, in the United Kingdom, find ourselves—amid ongoing questions about funding, the question mark over the US election hanging over the country, the continued threat in Ukraine, the risk of instability in the Middle East and the understandable question of whether the UK can feasibly make a sufficient contribution within the north Atlantic—AUKUS is seen as part of an Indo-Pacific tilt which takes the UK beyond its capabilities. Even if the Government’s stated intention remains, their focus may drift.

All those things are understandable, but have to be placed in the context of the fundamental importance of the strategic threat that a rising China poses to us. It should be a point of great pride for our nation that we can assist in this significant advance for the West by increasing our deterrent capabilities towards a strategic opponent or adversary—however you want to call it—which has been growing remorselessly, which is not fazed by much of what the UK and its western allies have done recently, but which has really noticed the change that AUKUS provides.

Much of the AUKUS agreement rests on embedding a consensus between Governments and within parliaments. That must be supported by an increased understanding of the threats that we face. That is the challenge that the Government, and all of us as parliamentarians, have to prosecute over the coming years.

The second of the points that I want to make is on the importance of a whole-government, whole-society approach. There have been a number of important contributions on this already.

Look at the example of the nuclear deterrent programme, which has been described many times as a national endeavour. Look at the focus that each incoming Prime Minister has placed on it and their understanding of the funding needed to drive it through. That stacks up, but is the whole of government really focused on delivering the deterrent programme in the way that is needed? That is an open question. The long-term funding that has been provided for Barrow and the wider economy to unlock issues with the programme’s delivery is hugely welcome and the commitment to that must remain under the new Government. This goes beyond the strategic defence review, and I am not saying that simply as a former MP for the area. It is hugely important to unlock the delivery of the programme, without which one would struggle to do it and certainly to do it to cost. It is a cost saving of £200 million, if the Treasury can believe that, which is sometimes a struggle.

The earlier contributions about the delinquency of former Governments were powerfully made, but we must look at ourselves and at the political debate in this country. Look, for example, at the level of controversy over the restriction and means testing of winter fuel payments or over the child benefit cap. There is nothing like the same level of controversy and focus on the gap that clearly exists in the country between present defence spending and what is needed to restore a level of deterrence and give us greater security to maintain our ways of life and values in future years. Until we can change that, which requires leadership from the top and across the political spectrum, and until we can talk more seriously about the defence and security issues that we face—not simply within this erudite Room but more widely and in a way that is more often heard by the public—we will never move to the funding levels and hard choices needed to give ourselves the strategic deterrence that we need.

King’s Speech

Lord Walney Excerpts

Thursday 25th July 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Walney (CB)]

My Lords, I draw attention to my entry in the register of interests, in particular, my role advising Leonardo as part of the Purpose Coalition. I, too, am delighted at the appointment of my noble friends as Ministers in the new Labour Government, and at the superb choice of my noble friend Lord Robertson as the lead reviewer. If there was any doubt before, his appointment makes it clear that there is no danger that the new Government will listen to the occasional siren voice in the foreign and defence establishment questioning the nuclear deterrent, among other things.

I shall focus my remarks on the Government’s target of spending 2.5% of GDP on defence. The noble and gallant Lord, Lord Houghton, made a powerful speech that was among those setting out why a spending target in numeric terms is not sufficient and must be accompanied by an expansive vision. Nevertheless, it is necessary. It is an important marker and signal to our adversaries of the seriousness with which this Government and country will take defending the nation.

The Prime Minister made it clear as recently as the NATO summit that the Labour Government’s commitment to 2.5% is cast-iron. The manifesto makes it clear that the Government’s No. 1 priority is to defend the nation, and that sentiment was echoed at the Dispatch Box by my noble friend the Minister in her opening remarks. The Government know that the diversity and intensity of the threats they face, the determination and expansiveness of our adversaries and the scale of sustained investment required mean that words to that effect must be backed by action. If defence is the top priority of the Government, they have to prioritise spending on the defence realm.

Let us look at a key example this week. In the other place, the new Government faced an early challenge from opposition parties and a number of their own Members of Parliament—to remove the two-child benefit cap. That desire is entirely understandable and right. The scale of child poverty in communities across the UK is deeply affecting, and removing the cap would be an effective mechanism, taking many thousands of children out of poverty.

However, in an environment where global threat levels are so high and diverse; where incoming Ministers and the Prime Minister apparently agree with the assessment of the head of the British Army that we must be ready to fight a war within three years, as the fallout from Russia’s appalling aggression in Ukraine continues; where the Middle East is deeply unstable; where we are pressing on with the national endeavour to renew the nuclear deterrent and strengthen our cyber deterrence; where we have an equally unshakeable commitment to the AUKUS security alliance to deal with the rising Pacific threat; and where we recognise that all our goals for social progress at home are underpinned by security and deterrence abroad, how could we justify removing the benefit cap—a worthy measure but not a manifesto commitment—ahead of the clear manifesto commitment to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP?

This is not a trivial tension. Figures provided to me by the Lords Library today estimate the cost of removing the cap to be £2.1 billion this year, £2.4 billion next year and £2.8 billion in 2027-28. Based on the current official economic forecast, if you added that to the last Government’s projected increase in defence spending, you would reach 2.5% by 2028. Let us not forget that all this is happening in an environment where the western alliance may be set to face its greatest challenge for many decades, depending on events across the Atlantic. Britain cannot afford to leave increasing investment in our defences to another day.

AUKUS

Lord Walney Excerpts

Thursday 29th February 2024 Grand Committee

[Lord Walney (CB)]

I am grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Risby, for securing this debate. Momentum is crucial in AUKUS, not only because there is no time to waste in building up the capability and deterrence factor, but also because we should not assume that public and political opinion across our partner nations will remain static without clear signs of progress. It is vital that we make that progress on both pillars.

As the noble Lord, Lord Risby, rightly said, much of pillar 1 rests on the workforce. We need to get on with integrating and training across the UK and Australia in particular, which will co-operate deeply on SSN-AUKUS. What progress have the Government made in delivering specific AUKUS visas to enable workforce transfer in this regard?

Our country needs more advanced engineers, full stop. It particularly needs to be able to attract them into this specific programme. Key to that, as the noble Lord, Lord Risby, said, is building up Barrow’s capability and the nuclear capability in Derby. Both those towns need the infrastructure to attract and sustain the significant rise in numbers that will be needed. If the Minister wants to share with us what announcements will be made in the Budget next week on that, we would all be very grateful. This really is investing to save, because unless we can get the workforce up to speed, the cost overrun will dwarf anything that will be spent on the necessary infrastructure measures.

Team Barrow is doing heroic work, but a great responsibility rests on its shoulders. The engagement from the Cabinet Secretary, the Levelling-up Secretary and others is genuinely remarkable, but I hope that the Government will specifically focus on ensuring there is the institutional capacity in local institutions to deliver the economic development that is needed. The future of local enterprise partnerships remains in doubt across the country and development corporations have had difficulties. There needs to be something more in place.

Finally, the Government must ensure that pillar 2 is a concurrent commitment and not sequential. We need greater engagement with industry and we need Ministers consistently to show the public that this is an economic and security priority. Without that, we will not hope to maintain the consensus that is needed.

Red Sea Update

Lord Walney Excerpts

Monday 5th February 2024 Lords Chamber

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

Your Lordships will be fully aware of the view that the Government take of these types of organisations. The noble Lord is correct: the US has designated the Houthis as a specially designated terrorist group. That is slightly different from full proscription. As he knows, we have taken out individual sanctions across quite a lot of people within the Houthi organisation. We are always looking at updating exactly what category these types of organisations come into. So it is being considered in real time.

[Lord Walney (CB)]

My Lords, the Defence Secretary is right to say that appeasing the Houthis will not bring stability, and that placating the sponsors of terror does not benefit our international order. Do the Government accept, therefore, that it was a profound mistake for President Biden to withdraw support, as he did, from the Saudi Arabia-led coalition against the Houthis, who have illegitimately taken over part of Yemen, remain embedded there and have the capability to carry out these attacks to this day? This was a course of action that many in the Opposition, under very different leadership at that time, called for in this House. To their credit, the Government looked like they were going to stay the course at the time. Is it not time now to learn the lesson from that and actually prosecute a campaign against this terrorist organisation to its natural finish?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

The noble Lord is talking about a sort of sea-change in the level of activity. I certainly do not think that the Government believe that we have got to that position yet. As far as the historical aspect is concerned, far be it from me to take a view as to what was and what was not the right thing to do at the time. I cannot imagine that anybody thought that it would be a good idea to end up where we are, with Yemen being effectively split and some of the most needy people, certainly in the area and probably in the world, put under the pressure they are by this terrorist organisation.

King’s Speech

Lord Walney Excerpts

Wednesday 15th November 2023 Lords Chamber

[Lord Walney (CB)]

My Lords, in adding my welcome to the Minister to his post and congratulating the noble Lords, Lord Young and Lord Roberts, on their maiden speeches, I particularly praise the latter for the moral clarity that he showed in his contribution at the end in making what to my mind is an irrefutable case about calling on Israel to simply lay down its weapons and agree to a ceasefire in the face of the genocidal attack that was perpetrated on it. Like many Members of this House, I saw for the first time the unfiltered footage that was shown by all-party groups here, with the support of the Israeli embassy. It is an unspeakable evil.

We have heard a number of important contributions about the need for the UK to retain its capacity to be a force for good, as the noble Lord, Lord Mountevans, put it. Often, those contributions focus on the need for continued investment in our defensive capability. I absolutely endorse that; 2.5% of spending may well not be close to sufficient for the scale of the challenge faced by the UK and its allies.

Equally important is the need for moral clarity and resolve in the face of the clear evil that we saw. I thought the noble Baroness, Lady Kennedy, was powerful in her contribution when she talked about the need for Israel to follow international law, but there is a huge danger for the UK and the West to be myopic in their focus when they talk about the need to follow international law and blame Israel for the situation, when it is of course Hamas that has embedded itself in hospitals, deliberately targets civilians, deprives its citizens of fuel so that it can fuel its rockets and tries to manipulate the international media, with the help of Iran, through disinformation on a scale that all too often gets through. Too often our focus is on Israel alone. If we allowed ourselves to go down that route as a country—which, to their great, both the Government and Keir Starmer, the Leader of the Opposition, have ensured that the Government and the Opposition have not—we would become part of the problem.

I was in the other place with the soon-to-be Lord Cameron in 2013, at the time of the disastrous failure to support limited military action in Syria as a response to Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons— I was one of only four Labour MPs who refused to follow my then leader, who pulled support from the Government at the last minute. That was a reprehensible act by Ed Miliband, but the Government bore a significant amount of responsibility for failing to make the case for action in Parliament and to the public.

So, in welcoming the future Lord Cameron to this place and his role as Foreign Secretary, I say that it is of paramount importance that he has learned from that failure, because the world is getting more and more challenged, and the need for continued investment will remain, as will the need to stay the course in Ukraine and other conflicts. That ultimately requires public support and, as a country, as a Government and in this place, we have not taken that argument out to the public to the level we need to now and in the period ahead. So I hope that he will be part of doing that as Foreign Secretary in the future.

Nuclear Submarines: AUKUS

Lord Walney Excerpts

Monday 3rd July 2023 Lords Chamber

Asked by

[Lord Walney]

To ask His Majesty’s Government what steps they will take to ensure the United Kingdom meets the increased demands to produce nuclear submarines entailed by the AUKUS agreement with the United States of America and Australia.

[The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Baroness Goldie) (Con)]

My Lords, the UK is stepping up to meet the opportunities of the AUKUS nuclear submarine agreement, a multidecade undertaking that will create thousands of jobs. We are investing an extra £3 billion over the next two years in our defence nuclear enterprise, including support for AUKUS. Rolls-Royce plans to almost double the size of its Derby site, creating 1,170 skilled roles and demonstrating our commitment to the expertise embodied in British industry.

[Lord Walney (CB)]

I thank the Minister for that Answer. I should add that my declared interest for the Purpose Coalition includes advising Rolls-Royce on how to meet that production challenge. AUKUS is great news for our global security and for the UK submarine industry, but does the Minister accept that it requires a step-change in Whitehall departments working together on a genuine national endeavour, which has long been promised but has not been delivered across Whitehall?

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

I thank the noble Lord for the role he is playing and wish him well in his advisory capacity to Rolls-Royce. This is a very important project. It is probably one of the most important we have entered into in the post-Second World War period. He is absolutely correct that there is a need for cross-government co-operation and consultation. That is happening. As he is also aware, one of the big challenges is in relation to skills. We are very cognisant of that, and activity is under way to try to increase nuclear sector engagement with young people and attract talent from a more diverse background.

Nuclear Weapons: Failsafe Review

Lord Walney Excerpts

Monday 6th March 2023 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

I thank my noble friend for his observation. I understand the interest of your Lordships in the general frameworks which apply, and that is something that I am happy to comment on.

[Lord Walney (CB)]

Should the Government’s focus not be on maintaining continuous at-sea deterrence, which has been unbroken since 1969, but which the Minister and many others know is under increasing strain given the longevity of the Vanguard submarines and the delays in the Dreadnought class? Does not the whole focus of the Government need to be on ensuring that Dreadnought can come in in time to take the strain?

Estonia: UK Troop Levels

Lord Walney Excerpts

Monday 31st October 2022 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

The intention of Sweden and Finland to join NATO is very welcome. Anything that cements the co-ordination and collaboration of countries with like-minded principles and values in the Baltic area is to be welcomed. Our future force posture in Estonia currently comprises 994 UK personnel, but it will rise to 1,020 when the battle group rotates in March. That is in addition to the enhanced details of capability that I outlined to the noble Lord, Lord Coaker.

[Lord Walney (CB)]

My Lords, is there not at least a case to maintain the current numbers until the NATO divisional headquarters is fully operational next year?

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

The noble Lord will understand that, were we to retain that second battle group in Estonia, it would require significant extra investment and additional temporary winterisation of infrastructure and storage—and, of course, it would have a detrimental operational impact on the overall flexible deployment of the Army. We have a very good relationship with Estonia, as I said earlier. We have a robust and enhanced capability that we are making available to Estonia. I think that is a matter for commendation.

Ukraine

Lord Walney Excerpts

Friday 25th February 2022 Lords Chamber

[Lord Walney (CB)]

My Lords, I am pleased to follow the contribution from the noble Lord, Lord Davies of Brixton. Russia should surely now be expelled from the Council of Europe, as the noble Lord, Lord Anderson of Swansea, mentioned. It should also be expelled from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. President Putin’s invasion has flagrantly violated the founding principles of both organisations by attacking a fellow member. Some will say that Russia should remain in these bodies to facilitate future diplomacy and dialogue, but of what value is that when Putin’s comprehensive strategy of lies and deceit has weaponised the channels of diplomacy against his adversaries? Perhaps more will question whether it matters either way, as both bodies have arguably lacked direction and purpose for some time.

With the removal of Russia’s permanent seat on the UN Security Council not being an option, its expulsion from the European community would be a worthwhile signal that Putin has made this great nation a pariah in the eyes of all those who are now threatened by it. Conversely, keeping Russia among the ranks of those which it threatens risks sending the opposite signal: namely, that the democracies Putin threatens remain weak and could be further bullied. More importantly, removing the common threat from the ranks of these bodies could free up either or both of them to play a role in the restructuring of European security, which a number of noble Lords have pointed out is now necessary and urgent.

Strengthening NATO is vital, as many noble Lords have said today. However, these tragic events have shown the grave gap that exists for European neighbours on Russia’s borders that are not NATO members. This must not be centred simply on the European Union. Indeed, we must now take active steps to widen this. Too often, recent discussions on the UK’s involvement in Europe’s defence and security approach have become a lament for Brexit. But we need to make the case that it is not in our neighbours’ interests to keep any European nation on the sidelines in the face of this common threat—particularly given the scale of the UK’s capability and will to act. It is absolutely down to us to show that we are willing to re-engage on a sustained basis to take diplomacy and our European alliances seriously, in a way that we have perhaps not in recent years. As we do that, there is a responsibility and a need for our EU allies to find a way of working that can maximise the contribution of the UK and other allies which have chosen a different economic and political path to the European Union.

Ukraine: Military and Non-military Support

Lord Walney Excerpts

Tuesday 25th January 2022 Lords Chamber

Asked by

[Lord Walney]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what further (1) military, and (2) non-military, support they will offer to the government of Ukraine to deter the threat of an invasion by Russian forces.

[The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Baroness Goldie) (Con)]

My Lords, we unequivocally support Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and that is why the United Kingdom has provided considerable military support to the Government of Ukraine through Operation Orbital and the assistance announced by the Defence Secretary on 17 January, as well as a range of economic assistance measures and diplomatic engagement.

[Lord Walney (CB)]

I thank the Minister for that Answer. The Prime Minister has rightly signalled today that UK forces will be part of NATO’s defence of its borders, but surely the focus must continue to be on increasing support for Ukraine itself to deter this heinous act of aggression. In addition to punishing economic sanctions, will the Government make clear that lethal military support for our partner will be increased and ongoing in the event of further incursion?

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

The noble Lord will be aware that under Operation Orbital we have offered a range of military support since 2015. That is continuing. The recently announced ongoing package is a part of that. Another part of it is a maritime training initiative. We have a range of support measures and will continue to do everything we can to support Ukraine to defend itself if that becomes necessary.