EU-US Trade and Investment Agreement Debate
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William Cash
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EU-US Trade and Investment Agreement
William Cash Excerpts(10 years, 9 months ago)
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John Healey
I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman. He is right that the UK has for some time been one of the prime movers in the argument for a comprehensive transatlantic trade deal, which is a point I will return to later.
The fact that this debate has been initiated by Back Benchers from both sides of the House does not absolve the Government from the responsibility to ensure that the public are properly informed about the negotiations and the potential for this deal, or that the House has a regular opportunity to debate progress and scrutinise the actions the Government are taking to secure a successful agreement. That cross-party, and indeed all-party, support and interest was evident two months ago when, as the hon. Member for Skipton and Ripon (Julian Smith) mentioned, we set up the all-party group, which I am fortunate enough to chair. We are working closely with the well-established and well-regarded British-American Parliamentary Group, of which Mr Speaker is the distinguished chair. We have set up working relations with the TUC, the CBI and Which?, and we have now been offered welcome administrative and policy support from BritishAmerican Business, which of course is the joint US-UK chamber of commerce.
The aims of the all-party group are: first, to provide a focus for UK parliamentary cross-party support for a comprehensive trade and investment agreement; secondly, to contribute to better public understanding of the potential benefits that such a deal could bring to consumers, workers and businesses across Britain; and thirdly, to strengthen the scrutiny that Parliament can exercise over Government actions towards securing such a successful agreement.
Mr William Cash (Stone) (Con)
The right hon. Gentleman may know that the European Scrutiny Committee is looking at the whole question of the scrutiny of this agreement and, indeed, other free trade agreements. One of the problems is that the negotiating mandate is not available to Parliament on the conventional basis until the conclusion of the agreement. We are pursuing that matter with the Prime Minister, and I have just received a letter from him about it. I shall refer to that in my speech.
John Healey
I am grateful for and interested by that intervention. I will come to the general questions of the relationship between the UK Parliament and the UK Government and the requirement for a better and more formal system of scrutiny of decisions and involvement in the European Union. I will be interested to hear the hon. Gentleman’s remarks when he contributes to the debate.
Finally on the all-party group, we see this as active but time limited to the period of negotiations towards what we hope is a successful conclusion of the deal. Personally, I hope that Presidents Obama, Van Rompuy and Barroso are right when they declare that they want this deal done within two years.
Mr William Cash (Stone) (Con)
It is quite a big ask to do it in seven minutes, Madam Deputy Speaker, although I will not attempt to go through all the issues for that reason. I am extremely aware of the time constraints, so I will try to concentrate on the main issues and set out some headline points that are worth bearing in mind.
Curiously enough, I approach this issue in line with the EU constitution, by applying the precautionary principle. I would not want to be over-enthusiastic about something until I knew what the terms were. There has been a great deal of hype about this issue and some exaggerated views expressed. I would be cautious, for a variety of reasons, about making any assumptions that such an agreement will ever happen, given the Doha round and all that happened there. Nor would I wish to become over-excited about it necessarily bringing the benefits that have been described, because nobody knows.
Part of the reason for that is that the negotiating mandate is not available, as I said in an intervention. As Chairman of the European Scrutiny Committee, I have correspondence with the Prime Minister and the Minister for Trade, Lord Green. At the moment, the whole thing is under discussion. Let me quote from a letter I received on 10 July from the Prime Minister, in which he said:
“Both the EU and the US are aiming for the maximum level of ambition”—
I am always keen on ambition, as long as it does not vaunt itself—
“in these trade negotiations.”
The letter continues:
“This means that all sectors are within scope, except, as I mentioned, the audiovisual sector”—
that was in reply to a point I made the other day in response to a European summit statement—
“although there is the option to include the sector at a later stage in the negotiations.”
The letter continues:
“The areas normally covered in a trade agreement with a developed nation will be included. This ranges from trade in goods, services, public procurement, to regulatory issues and rules in intellectual property rights, sustainable development and customs. Some of the issues covered are areas of Member State competence or shared competence; the EU’s negotiating mandate was therefore agreed by consensus.”
Whenever I hear the word “consensus” in the context of EU administrative arrangements, I get slightly concerned, to say the least, because it means that a deal has been done behind closed doors. We know that the negotiating mandate is being discussed behind closed doors, and we need to know who is going to benefit most from these arrangements, and in which sectors.
We have only 12% of the votes in the qualified majority voting arrangements. This is an exclusive competence of the Commission, which drives the entire operation. It has no particular interest in what goes on in the United Kingdom, and I am entirely dubious about the claims that this agreement would generate £10 billion-worth of advantage to the UK. I do not know whether it will, and I do not think that the people who are saying that know. As Chairman of the European Scrutiny Committee, I would like to insist—so far as I can—that we be given all the necessary information.
Julian Smith
Does my hon. Friend agree that the 12 or 13-person team from the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills and the Foreign Office that focuses on trade should try to achieve some of the things that he is looking for when influencing the UK’s position in this deal?
Mr Cash
I am sure that they will do their best, but whether they will do well enough has yet to be established. If we do not know what is going on during the negotiations —and if we do not even know what the mandate is—I must express my concern on that count alone.
I shall continue to quote from the Prime Minister’s letter:
“As David Lidington told your Committee when he appeared before it on 4 July, while the confidential nature of such negotiations means that formally depositing documents is not possible”—
which I have to say concerns me greatly—
“Ministers will keep the Committee abreast of significant developments in writing and we are happy to offer the Committee informal, private briefings on the progress of negotiations.”
We will be monitoring all this. I see that the Chairman of the Business, Innovations and Skills Select Committee, the hon. Member for West Bromwich West (Mr Bailey), is in the Chamber, and I would be happy to exchange ideas and thoughts with him on this. He was a member of the European Scrutiny Committee with me for many years.
Mr Jenkin
Does my hon. Friend agree that the challenge will be to reconcile the differing objectives of the member states? That will be extremely difficult because, as a major European economy, we uniquely depend on imports, and we export more to the rest of the world than all the other member states except Germany. At the same time, we are dependent on trade with the EU. We have a unique set of circumstances and a unique economy, and it is going to be extraordinarily difficult to reconcile our requirements with those of the other, very different economies of the EU in one single agreement.
Mr Cash
I very much concur with that.
A number of extremely learned articles have been written about this matter, and they show that many European countries stand to be gravely disadvantaged by the deal. I cannot claim that we would be exclusively enhanced by it, but many of the Parliaments and trade associations of many other countries will also be watching these developments. Several countries will be given quite a jolt. An article entitled “Transatlantic free trade: boon or bane for economic cohesion in the EU” states:
“in a broad free trade agreement, trade activities between Great Britain and Sweden as well as between Great Britain and Spain are expected to drop by about 45%. Likewise, Sweden’s imports and exports with Spain and Finland will decline by 40%, and Irish-Dutch trade relations will shrink by 35%.”
All those factors must be taken into account.
However enthusiastic we may be about the concept of free trade, it is important to ask whether the deal is actually to be beneficial to the United Kingdom. It is our task to secure such benefits, and not only that of the EU. We also trade with the whole of the Commonwealth, and our trade relations with the emerging countries, the Commonwealth and the rest of the world have been improving. We have a net surplus of trade with the rest of the world of about £15 billion a year, according to the latest figures for 2012. However, we have a trade deficit with Europe. The figure for 2011 was minus £47 billion; it is now minus £70 billion. The Germans, on the other hand, had a surplus in 2011 of £30 billion, and it is now £72 billion. Many people believe that the United States will benefit the most from the deal, and those figures suggest that it will weigh up all those factors when dealing with these questions. This is a potentially difficult situation that will have to be dealt with.
An article in the Financial Times states:
“There would also be damage around the world from a sweeping US-EU deal. Advanced countries such as Canada, Australia and Japan would suffer, as would many emerging economies. Mexico and Chile, which have strong trading ties with the US, would be among the worst hit, along with most of Africa, Asia and Latin America—with the exception of Brazil.”
Brazil is in a lot of difficulty at the moment, however. The article continues:
“China’s trade flows with the US would shrink”.
There are many elements of all this that need to be thought out.
In the short time left, I shall draw the House’s attention to an article in Economia by Zaki Laïdi, entitled “Europe’s bad trade gamble”. Mr Laïdi is Professor of International Relations at the institute of politics known as Sciences Po in France. I am not saying that he has all the answers, but his article is well worth reading and can be obtained from the Library.
There are many conflicting views of the benefits that could be derived from the deal. The European Scrutiny Committee has made inquiries of the Government, and I would dispute the advantages of the EU-Korea free trade agreement. We know what the position is with regard to the EU, but unfortunately we cannot make any comparison with that arrangement to substantiate the claims of advantages for the UK.
Mr Bailey
I know that my right hon. Friend has campaigned on this issue for many years and I totally agree with him. We need to look properly at procurement policies to realise that point, but I will not get tempted further down that path now.
As far as I can see, the big issue for the motor industry is that, for the UK and the US, tariff barriers are relatively low but that is not quite the same as the barriers between the US and the EU. One of the challenges for the British negotiators as part of the US team is to ensure that the EU does not concentrate only on overt tariff barriers. If that is the case, there will be a general benefit, but the EU will benefit disproportionately. In case anyone considers this to be an anti-EU argument, let me make it absolutely clear that I think we have a far better chance of prosecuting a good deal as part of the EU negotiation than we would if we were not part of it—but this particular issue does need to be addressed. The fact is that the removal of non-tariff barriers within the US is considerably more important for stimulating exports or reducing costs, and the British Government must concentrate on those as part of the EU negotiating team.
Let me highlight a few areas where I believe the British Government need to get behind those who are already engaged in this work. The first relates to how the myriad of technical regulations—quite understandably in respect of road safety and the environment—dictate a range of different regulations in different countries. Standardising them provides a big challenge. I know that the European Automobile Manufacturers Association and the American Automotive Policy Council are working on this at this moment, but it is up to the Government to see that that work comes to a positive conclusion and give it all the support they can.
Secondly, on the global scale, the United Nations is working on standardising global technical regulations. Although this might not be part of the specific brief of the EU negotiating team, it would be helpful if the EU and the US, working with the UN, standardised their approach so that the standardisation of regulation applies not just within the EU and the US but throughout the rest of the world. That would provide a further impetus for both sides.
Another issue affecting our dealings with the US is the disparate and federated nature of its regulatory bodies. There are national federated bodies involved in regulations on environmental protection and road safety, but there are, of course, state bodies as well. That provides a specific challenge to get the sort of coherence and pace of reform that we need to conform to the timetable.
Mr Cash
Would the Chairman of the Business, Innovation and Skills Committee consider whether there will be a fast-track agreement in Congress, as this has been an issue of some contention? In that context and within the framework of the constitutional arrangements of the United States, it is important to bear in mind that the commercial rights of the states themselves are important, too.
Mr Bailey
The hon. Gentleman raises an important point. Provision exists within the US constitution for a fast-track process. To conform to the timetable we are looking at, that would certainly be necessary, and it is up to our negotiators to ensure that it happens.
The standardisation of the customs procedures is another issue. Manufacturers often complain that many hours are lost as a result of non-standard procedures, so this should be a potentially fruitful area for negotiation.
Finally, let me acknowledge that although the details are all terribly difficult, extremely technical and often obscure, their impact on trade and thereby on countries’ economies, jobs and growth is very significant. The Government therefore need to do everything they can to work with the organisations engaged in resolving these highly technical problems.
I mention the BIS publication, “Estimating the Economic Impact on the UK of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) Agreement between the European Union and the United States” final project report, which I am sure the Minister knows by heart. It spelt out the disproportionate level of benefit that would accrue to the motor industry and companies such as Jaguar Land Rover and their suppliers in my area of the black country from a successful reduction of both tariff barriers and the sort of non-tariff barriers to which I have alluded. On an optimistic view of a 75% reduction in non-tariff barriers, car exports could go up by as much as 26%—a 26% increase on the already vigorous and buoyant production from Jaguar Land Rover in my area. That would be of enormous benefit for economic growth and jobs.
I believe that by working with the EU to expand our market to 800 million people—half the world’s gross domestic product and a third of the world’s trade—the motor industry could be incredibly successful. I hope that the Government will map out the benefits of such a free trade agreement for areas such as mine.
Jonathan Evans (Cardiff North) (Con)
It is a great privilege to follow the hon. Member for West Bromwich West (Mr Bailey), and I agree with much of what he had to say. Let me take the opportunity to congratulate the right hon. Member for Wentworth and Dearne (John Healey) and my hon. Friend the Member for Aberconwy (Guto Bebb), who played such an important part in creating the new all-party group, whose establishment is both timely and necessary if we are to realise some of the prizes that should flow from a new transatlantic trade deal. Let me make it clear, bearing in mind some of the speeches we have heard, that I regard myself as an old-fashioned Tory. I believe in free trade, and I think it crucial for parliamentarians here in the UK and throughout Europe to be well aware and fully informed of all the arguments and implications at the very earliest opportunity.
Mr Cash
It is inevitable. When my hon. Friend referred to himself as an old-fashioned Tory, I was bound to reflect on the fact that nobody was much more protectionist than Disraeli and that nobody was more in favour of free trade than John Bright and Richard Cobden, who were of course Liberals.
Jonathan Evans
I cannot help thinking that we are missing my hon. Friend the Member for North East Somerset (Jacob Rees-Mogg). I had thought that we were likely to get on to the corn laws at some stage of this debate, but let us move that issue to one side.
The negotiations will be led by the European Commission, which is inevitable as we currently stand, and the White House. Legislators in Europe, however, will in many instances have the final say on whatever emerges from these negotiations, so I view early engagement with parliamentarians as of real importance. I also want to welcome the willingness of Ministers—we have already seen it from my noble Friend Lord Green and my right hon. and learned Friend the Minister without Portfolio—fully to engage with us. I welcome, too, the commitment of President Obama to place the delivery of this new trade partnership as a key objective of his final term, but it is important to understand that the aim of creating a truly free transatlantic market is not a recent phenomenon.
As colleagues may know, after an all too short period of service in this House during John Major’s premiership, I served as a Member of the European Parliament, leading the Conservative delegation, and I was later elected by the European Parliament as the president of its relations with the US Congress. I took up that post eight years ago, and from then on it was clear to me that many legislators on both sides of the Atlantic had already devoted decades of effort to bringing about much closer economic co-operation between the United States and Europe. I pay particular tribute to two British MEPs who will leave the European Parliament next year for the unswerving commitment that they have shown to the promotion of that trade partnership, and to the achievement of a truly free transatlantic market.
My Conservative colleague James Elles, who served six terms in the European Parliament, was the founder of the Transatlantic Policy Network, a forum for debate between Atlanticist legislators which I believe has played an important role in bringing us to where we are today. One former US chairman of the TPN is Chuck Hagel, who now serves at the heart of the US Administration as Defence Secretary. There is no doubt that many other members of the Obama Administration share the objectives that have been promoted by the TPN.
Another former TPN chairman who will leave the European Parliament next year is the Labour MEP for the South East, Peter Skinner. It may be strange to hear it said from these Benches, but I am pleased to say that Peter is one of the best-regarded parliamentarians in Brussels. We worked very closely together in the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the Parliament, and also later when I served as chair of the advisory board of the Transatlantic Economic Council, set up by Chancellor Merkel and President Bush in 2007. I well recall encouraging Peter to join me in establishing better links with our US friends, words that he took quite literally—I mention this particularly in the context of an earlier intervention—when he met his future wife Kimberley, a Penn State republican, during one of our parliamentary visits.
Much of the background research on the massive opportunities for economic growth to be gained from an EU-US an agreement has been done by the Centre for Transatlantic Relations at Johns Hopkins university in Washington. Daniel S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan from the university produce an annual report on the transatlantic economy. I know that my hon. Friend the Member for Skipton and Ripon (Julian Smith) has seen that document, which surveys jobs and trade and investment between the US and Europe, and whose details make a powerful case for closer transatlantic co-operation. I shall ensure that my hon. Friend the Member for Stone (Mr Cash) receives a copy, because I think it crucially important for him to see it.
The Prime Minister has said that a successful transatlantic agreement could be the biggest trade deal in history. I have heard some cynical observations about the figures, but much of the analysis shows that not only will the agreement constitute a gain for Europe and for the United States, but there will be gains elsewhere as a result of the growth in the world economy that will follow.
No one doubts the challenge that we face in achieving agreement. As may have become evident during today’s debate, we sometimes hear protectionist voices, which can be at their most seductive during times of austerity. I know that comments have been made about the “Buy America” legislation which exists in no fewer than 21 states. The latest state to pass such legislation is Maryland, whose legislators seem to be unaware that some 70,000 people in the state work directly for European companies, that $13 billion from Europe is invested in Maryland annually, and that every year $3 billion worth of goods are exported from Maryland to Europe. Immediately after signing the new “Buy America” law, the Maryland state governor flew to the Paris air show to urge Europeans to buy defence products made—believe it or not—in Maryland. You couldn’t make it up.
Narrow protectionism does not protect jobs in Maryland or anywhere else in the United States, and it does not do so in this country either. Reference has been made to the effectiveness of laws of that kind. I think it worth observing that Government procurement agreements made by the United States at the World Trade Organisation grant EU countries full reciprocity with Maryland providers and manufacturers. I believe that, in this instance, “Buy America” laws are not just wrong-headed but a blatant deception of US and Maryland voters. Let me add that my warning against protectionism is just as appropriate in the case of the French voices that successfully compelled the European Commission to remove audio-visual services from the scope of the negotiation.
Finally, let me say a little about the financial ties between Europe and the United States. At this point I should draw the House’s attention to my entry in the Register of Members’ Financial Interests, although my own interests will not be affected in any way by this particular deal. Those financial ties represent a market share of between 66% and 86% of global financial sectors, which render this deal crucially important to the United States, and to us here in the United Kingdom. Delivering the deal by 2014 requires a tight timetable, but I urge Ministers to continue to engage with us as we proceed with our work.
Guto Bebb
I thank my hon. Friend for making that excellent point. It is one of the key concerns in relation to the fact that we are still waiting for a Canada-EU agreement, because the more the issue is highlighted, the more it seems that the opponents come forward with further concerns about why the agreement should not go ahead. As I have said, I do believe we should support this ambitious target, but I highlight the fact that the experience in relation to Canada has not as yet been particularly positive.
I also think we should express concern at the ability of some countries in Europe to highlight their protectionist views in relation to this proposed agreement. It is a concern that the audio-visual sector has been excluded from negotiations. That is also a positive issue in many ways, however, because the decision to move ahead with talks has been made despite the fact that the European side has excluded that sector. We are aware of why that specific area has been excluded, but it is encouraging to see that one problem has not necessarily resulted in a decision that the whole negotiations should be stopped.
That shows a pragmatic attitude, which we saw when I was in Washington last year. People on the Hill felt that this was an opportunity to create a genuine agreement between the EU and the US. That is noticeable, because there was a feeling when we were there that the time to strike on such an important issue is when people can see the advantages. When the economies of the western world are doing well, the need for such an agreement is perhaps less.
Last summer in Washington, it was very apparent that people felt that the States still required fundamental changes to their economy. They saw the opportunity for freer trade with the EU as important and thought that it would lead to a much better agreement on much better global trading. An important point about free trade between the EU and US that has not been made this afternoon is that we would end up with an agreement on regulations, for example, that would be acceptable in many parts of the global economy. If the EU and the US were to agree on certain consumer protection standards that were acceptable to those two large trading blocs, they could be the basis for agreements on a raft of other issues that would allow other parts of the global economy to aspire to enjoy the benefit of global free trade and of an EU-US trade agreement by working to the same standards rather than undercutting them.
Mr Cash
I want to make a simple point. Some of the commentators—I would include myself—are slightly concerned that the objectives from the European point of view are driven less by the question of free trade and more by the idea of becoming a linchpin of the moves towards political union so that they can stitch up deals all over the world under the Lisbon treaty, which would then result in a greater opportunity for political union. Does he agree that that is a possibility?
Guto Bebb
I would be reluctant to agree with that rather negative view of the reasons behind the trade agreement. Again, one of the reasons I was keen to be involved in the all-party group was to ensure that we discuss such issues openly. If there are significant concerns of that nature, it is important that they are aired and that we instigate a public discussion.
Let me finish on the issue of whether such a trade agreement will have an effect on our relationship with the European Union. I am often made despondent by the behaviour of the EU and I believe that we need to renegotiate the relationship between it and the UK. We need to show the people of this country once more that the EU could benefit us, rather than being problematic, a drag on economic growth and a cause of deep frustration. As someone who represents a constituency that is dependent on small businesses, I see that small businesses clearly feel frustrated by much of what comes out of Europe.
The agreement is a hugely important opportunity for the EU to show the people of the UK that the EU can provide us with much more trade, which is what we want from our relationship with our European partners, and much less of the other stuff, which is so problematic. This is a challenge to not just the United Kingdom but our European partners to show that we can create something in the EU that will benefit the economies of Europe and the rest of the world. That is the challenge that the EU needs to stand up to. If it fails, it will make a huge problem for the future of our relationship with the EU.
Mr John Spellar (Warley) (Lab)
I congratulate my right hon. Friend the Member for Wentworth and Dearne (John Healey) and the hon. Member for Aberconwy (Guto Bebb) on securing the debate and on setting up the extremely important all-party group on European Union-United States trade and investment.
Let me start by putting the subject in context. Even though the Chamber was rebuilt after the second world war, the ghosts of the 19th century and the debate on free trade seem still to be haunting it in today’s debate. I was slightly surprised that the hon. Member for Stone (Mr Cash) did not pay tribute to the work of Robert Peel, who, after all, represented a neighbouring Staffordshire seat in Tamworth.
I want to look more at the period after the second world war, when the architects of the new world order fully understood that an open economy and world trade were important not only for prosperity but for peace. They had seen the significant problems in the inter-war period—the time of Montagu Norman, austerity, competitive devaluation and, in particular, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in the United States and competitive trade wars around the world—that resulted in a diminution of world trade from $5.3 billion in 1929 to $1.8 billion in 1933. That world financial crisis led inexorably to the rise of fascism and Nazism and into the second world war.
The post-war negotiators realised their responsibilities, particularly Keynes, whose searing intelligence and insight is lacking in some of the international discussions now. First, the negotiators recreated an international financial architecture through a World Bank and an International Monetary Fund, which were the preconditions for the other changes of freer trade, barrier reductions, the post-Korean boom, the consumer society—at which many elitists sneered at the time—and the huge surge in technical development. They also depended on significant transatlantic initiatives. We had the creation of the European Coal and Steel Community, which then merged into the European Community, but before that we had the Marshall plan and the creation of NATO, and both were key parts of the changes brought about by that towering genius of foreign affairs and the British Labour movement, Ernest Bevin, who could see the opportunities —perhaps even more than some of those whose names are associated with them, such as George Marshall—for creating a new world situation. He saw them not as separate developments, but as interwoven and inseparable.
Now we face new challenges following the global financial crisis and the new architecture of the world economy. Although many underestimate them, the Atlantic ties are still enormously important. Many of the world’s democracies and the most productive economies are on either side of the Atlantic, as well as the most technologically advanced countries. Half of the world’s GDP would be encompassed by such an agreement.
Yesterday, the Commons debated Trident, and we also recently debated NATO and its future post-ISAF and Afghanistan. As we negotiate an evolving international architecture, trade and security go hand in hand. It is not just about the formal relations but about the cultural links, which are especially important and significant for the United Kingdom—as many Members have mentioned, we are uniquely placed to benefit from such arrangements —finance, business, security and defence. For the UK more than any other EU country, this is important.
As hon. Members, particularly the hon. Member for Cardiff North (Jonathan Evans), have remarked, President Obama and his officials have made it very clear that they are not interested in doing a number of minor deals with different countries. They see the negotiations between the EU and the US as crucial and they see the advantages. That does not mean that we should enter into the negotiations naively. They will be tough; the Americans are tough negotiators. We should drive a very hard bargain. There is also a danger that some on both sides of the Atlantic will seek to smuggle in a neo-liberal policy to try to undermine many protections for consumers and workers.
Mr Cash
Is the right hon. Gentleman aware of an article by Fred Smith in Forbes Magazine from about 10 days ago? It illustrates the fact that the United States is concerned about the importation into the agreements of regulatory and environmental standards. That might be a sticking point.
Mr Spellar
There is the possibility of many sticking points. That is why it is so important to keep an eye on the bigger picture of the huge benefits. Talks of this kind can always be undermined by a number of niggling details, and therefore by local campaigning. That is not unimportant, and we need to recognise that there will be losers as well as winners, but we should also recognise the huge benefits, not just for the US and the EU, but for the world economy. That is possibly what happened in the talks between the EU and Canada, and we need to be concerned about that. A number of difficulties have started to bog down those negotiations for those reasons.
An American official associated with the negotiations said that the talks needed to be
“done on one tank of gas.”
They need to move forward. Regard has to be paid to the checks and balances, but no one should deny the overall impact and huge benefits.
We also need to look at how we make sure that the benefits are shared with others in the world. No one should underestimate the huge impact that the expansion in world trade has had, not only on the economies of developed countries, but on the hundreds of millions who have been taken out of poverty all around the world, not least in China, where about 400 million people have been lifted out of poverty. We have also seen the largest migration of humanity in history from the countryside to the cities. The benefits have to be shared, and we need to ensure that the architecture of the agreement does not close off that avenue.
Having sounded that cautionary note, I think that we should wish the talks well, and I hope that they are conducted with speed and a degree of urgency. I hope that they go into the fast track with that one tank of gas. I say: “It’s time—let’s get rolling.”
Mike Gapes
I accept that because of the problems we had when we came to office, we had to get extra capacity. My constituents in Ilford benefited from the independent treatment centre that was established on the site of King George hospital. They had operations on their knees and noses that would not have been available previously because of the lack of capacity in the NHS. I make no apology for the fact that my constituents benefited from the investment and policies of the Labour Government, but that is not what this debate is about.
I want to make three points. First, in an earlier intervention I referred to the European Union-South Korea free trade agreement which, as the Foreign Secretary recognised in the House a few months ago, has not just been of great benefit to the European Union as a whole, but the removal of 97% of the tariffs that existed between Korea and the European Union led to a significant increase in British exports to Korea.
Mr Cash
I alluded to that in my speech. After inquiry, the European Scrutiny Committee was informed that it was difficult, if not impossible, to make a true comparison between the apparent benefits to the EU in general and the advantages to the UK individually, apart from in the car industry, where there appeared to be a distinct benefit.
Mike Gapes
On 23 April, the Foreign Secretary said:
“The free trade agreement with South Korea eliminated nearly 97% of tariffs, and some British businesses are now enjoying a huge increase in exports to South Korea as a result. We want to see the same thing happen on an even greater scale in relation to the United States.”—[Official Report, 23 April 2013; Vol. 561, c. 743.]
I suggest the hon. Member for Stone (Mr Cash)has some comradely discussions about these matters with the Foreign Secretary in the next meeting of the 1922 committee or somewhere else.
I want to emphasise a point made by the hon. Member for Skipton and Ripon (Julian Smith) about the significance of reducing the regulatory obstacles. Many of my constituents work in financial or banking institutions in London. TheCityUK has published a paper saying that it
“strongly supports the efforts being made in the US and the EU towards a Transatlantic Trade & Investment Partnership.”
It believes that that needs to be comprehensive and should cover all aspects of the economy, and it highlights the absurdities of different regulatory regimes, the additional costs this imposes on both sides of the Atlantic and the serious delays involved.
In another publication, British Influence highlights how the pharmaceutical industry has completely different requirements on the acceptability and availability of drugs in the US and Europe, meaning that drugs that have already gone through one rigorous testing procedure must then go through another one. That is not necessarily anything other than an obstructive measure to preserve markets for certain companies by squeezing out competitors. If it can compete on quality—and our pharmaceutical industry is certainly high quality—industry in Europe and Britain will be well capable of competing on a level playing field in an American market.
There will be people in the US, as in Europe, who will try to resist and obstruct these measures. We have heard some of those voices today, unfortunately. The reason for that is partly ideological, but it is also linked to pork-barrel politics, the two-year congressional election cycle and all the other difficulties people have in winning public office in the US, so this will not be an easy process, and these negotiations will take time; it is a bit optimistic to think they could be over in two years, and they will not be helped if the EU adopts a minimalist position or says it wishes certain items to be taken out of the negotiations at the start. That will play into the hands of those in the US who also want to play that game.
It is a bit like the Conservative party’s position on renegotiating our membership of, and repatriating powers from, the EU. We cannot take things à la carte, and in the negotiations between the EU and the US, we will not get all we want; it will be a difficult process, and it could well be undermined significantly by diversions, such as those relating to Scotland, to which my hon. Friend the Member for Ochil and South Perthshire (Gordon Banks) referred. It could also be undermined, however, if British negotiators, obsessing about other issues, divert their efforts and energies away from getting the best deal for British business and investment and trade in the United States, as my hon. Friend the Member for Sheffield Central pointed out earlier.
According to The Daily Telegraph, the Prime Minister said that
“if Britain weren’t in the EU you would not directly benefit from an EU/US trade deal”.
That is the fundamental point. If we embark on a process of renegotiating terms with, or withdrawing from, the EU, we will damage our position within an internal EU process and our long-term relationship with the US. As the US President, the ambassador and others have made absolutely clear, the US believes it to be in the interests of its co-operation with Europe that the UK play a full part within the EU. If we want to get an EU-US trade and investment treaty, we need to support it wholeheartedly.
Mr Iain Wright (Hartlepool) (Lab)
I congratulate my right hon. Friend the Member for Wentworth and Dearne (John Healey) and the hon. Member for Aberconwy (Guto Bebb) on using their strong persuasive abilities to convince the Backbench Business Committee to agree to this important debate. This issue has not had the prominence it deserves, and I pay tribute to right hon. and hon. Members for redressing that situation. Given the potential of this agreement, this is an important discussion.
This has been an important and, on the whole, positive debate. The sheer size of the American and European economies means that the potential prize of a significant free trade agreement is huge. As my right hon. Friend the Member for Wentworth and Dearne said, together the EU and the US account for just under half of global GDP and about a third of world trade. About $2.7 billion of goods and services cross the two continents every single day—a trillion dollars every year. The proposed free trade agreement could be the biggest bilateral trade deal in world history, both in terms of its value and in the range of subjects, sectors and markets covered. Given the size of the sums involved, even modest reductions in barriers would lead to huge amounts of money—$325 billion—that could be ploughed into extra jobs, more investment and higher economic growth.
As has been said, a potential trade and investment agreement would yield an estimated increase in UK national income of between £4 billion and £10 billion a year over the next decade. That is huge and worth fighting for.
Mr Cash
Lord Mandelson said that when he was trade commissioner the over-regulation of business cost 4% of Europe’s GDP and about £6 billion a year to the British economy. Is that not something we should be tackling, and does the hon. Gentleman agree that some of his figures are based on estimates?
Mr Wright
The hon. Gentleman makes an important point. I was about to say that, as mentioned several times, the nature and structure of trade between the EU and the US is such that we do not have substantial or excessive trade barriers between the two blocs. Most of the gains would come from a reduction in non-tariff barriers. In response to his point, I would add that I am keen to see regulatory convergence.
Reductions in non-tariff barriers would result in reduced costs for producers and traders and so increase productivity, leading to greater investment and higher gains per worker. Forecasts predict that increased trade would lead to higher wage rates of between 0.2% and 0.5% for workers in this country. Again, that is a prize worth fighting for. If the free trade agreement were to focus more on tariffs than non-tariff barriers, the gains for the UK would be substantially less, as the Chair of the Business, Innovation and Skills Committee said.
What has been clear from today’s debate is that there is a huge amount of ambition in this House for this agreement, so will the Minister confirm that the scope and ambition of the agreement that will be negotiated will be as wide-ranging and comprehensive as possible, in order to ensure the maximum gains for British companies? Will he ensure that Britain is pushing for negotiations to be focused on where that maximum gain will be, which, as I have said, is on the elimination of non-tariff barriers? Will he give us an idea of the scope and scale of agreement he hopes to achieve?
Right hon. and hon. Members have rightly been talking about how the House can be involved in this process. Will the Minister tell us how he hopes to keep the House informed of progress on the agreement? My right hon. Friend the Member for Wentworth and Dearne talked about this, but will the Minister tell us a bit about what he has planned for the scrutiny of the negotiations by this House? How can we debate this matter on a periodic and, we hope, positive basis?
Will the Minister also give the House a sense, wherever possible, on when he expects the talks to be concluded? I know that that is difficult, but it has been mentioned several times in the debate, and the US vice-president has said that he hopes talks can be agreed on “one tank of gas”, which means the completion of negotiations within 18 to 24 months. This is obviously a big priority for the Obama Administration, as I think it is for the British Government, but will the Minister give us a sense of when he thinks the process will be concluded? My hon. Friend the Member for Ochil and South Perthshire (Gordon Banks) asked about this directly, but how will this House ratify the deal? Will that be done by a full, substantial debate in Government time on the Floor of the House so that we can question and scrutinise the deal carefully?
I wish to focus on a few specific industries that could benefit enormously from a comprehensive and ambitious free trade agreement. The motor vehicles sector, which has been mentioned, is forecast to see considerable growth as a result of an ambitious transatlantic trade and investment partnership—TTIP. Estimates predict a rise in exports of between 15% and 26%. That will obviously help the German manufacturers, but we certainly should not discount the impact it will have on our important and growing automotives sector, where we are producing great-quality, high-premium cars that the rest of the world are keen to buy. That was mentioned by my hon. Friend the Member for West Bromwich West (Mr Bailey).
In that regard, I hope the Minister will reassure us that regulatory convergence to ensure great export growth will be at the top of the agenda in the negotiations. I hope he will agree that a vehicle considered safe to drive in Europe should also be considered safe to drive in the US. Will he ensure that duplication of safety and environmental standards is dealt with and that negotiations prioritise mutual recognition agreements and equivalence standards? Will he also address the point, not entirely confined to the automotive sector, that differing regulatory arrangements apply at a state, federal level? Will negotiations ensure that state differences are dealt with, too? That point will apply to many industries, such as those producing electrical goods, chemicals and cosmetics. My area has the highest concentration of chemical engineering in western Europe, and if Europe and the US had mutually accepted standards, the potential for the chemicals industry in the north-east would be enormous.
The global aerospace industry is dominated by Europe and the United States, and particularly by Airbus and Boeing, as was seen in the recent sales at the successful Paris air show. Britain is the largest player in this industry in Europe and is second only to the US in the world. The European aerospace industry generates a third of the EU’s manufacturing exports, and we in this country are at the heart of it. We have to maintain our competitive advantage. The industry is subject to fierce competition from other nations. China is particularly ambitious about launching an aerospace company—COMAC—to rival Boeing and Airbus. Does the Minister accept—this is an important point—that an ambitious free trade agreement between the US and the EU would actually help to maintain our competitive advantage in this field, as consistency of international regulatory standards should give existing firms and their supply chains an important lever to use? That was certainly the conclusion of an important Chatham House report on manufacturing published this week.
Services are a key part of the British economy; we are the best in Europe on services. Will the Minister comment on the nature of the agreement in that area? For example, a UK lawyers’ qualification is not fully recognised in the US, which is an impediment to UK lawyers’ practising. If the EU and US recognised each other’s professional qualifications, a great boost would be given to trade, which would particularly benefit the British economy. Will he discuss that a little?
The scale of the prize indicates how important it is that Britain has a leading role to play in Europe, as my hon. Friend the Member for Glasgow North East (Mr Bain) said. Does the Minister agree with Sir Mike Rake of the CBI, who said that there is an overwhelming case for Britain being at the heart of Europe for the sake of our businesses? Does he agree with my hon. Friend the Member for Ochil and South Perthshire, who indicated that he agreed with the Minister without Portfolio that it would be curtains for our ability to play any leadership role if we exited the EU? The right hon. and learned Gentleman said in a recent article:
“Irony of ironies, it is of course the EU that is making deals with the United States and Canada possible. It should come as no surprise that Obama’s officials have commented that they would have ‘very little confidence’ for a deal with the British alone.”
Does this Minister agree?
Will the Minister also address the warnings from the Obama Administration that if the UK leaves Europe, we will exclude ourselves from a EU-US trade deal worth billions and that it would be unlikely that Washington would try to negotiate a separate trade agreement with Britain? A senior White House official is quoted as stating:
“Having Britain in the EU...is going to strengthen the possibility that we succeed in a very difficult negotiation, as it involves so many different interests and having Britain as a key player and pushing for this will be important...We have expressed our views of Britain’s role in the EU and they haven’t changed…TTIP negotiations underscore why we think it’s important that it continues.”
Is it not clear from White House officials that the United States believes that one of the key reasons for the special relationship is that we are in the EU, and that it would be naive and impractical to suggest that we could negotiate a separate trade deal that could have the same potential positive effect on jobs and growth?
Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Lindsay Hoyle)
Order. I would just like to be of help, because the shadow Minister has taken 10 minutes so far and he said he would only take that long. He will have reached 11 minutes in a moment, so we should be careful.
Matthew Hancock
The incentive in the EU is for liberalisation, because overall the analysis of the European Commission and the analysis that we commissioned on the impact on the UK indicated a positive impact on every member state. Of course there are winners and losers, but the overall impact on each part of the EU will be positive. That is what the Commission’s analysis showed.
Matthew Hancock
Yes, of course. I was just about to move on to scrutiny, which came up in many Members’ contributions and is important. I agree with my hon. Friend the Member for Stone (Mr Cash) about the uncertainty of forecasts and numbers, but I will give the Committee the analysis. The Committee will play an important part in scrutinising the negotiations. Of course, as many Members have said, the negotiations will be led by the Commission, so we must ensure that we do not get in the way of positive developments of substance by publishing things that the Commission would not want us to publish, but within those constraints we will ensure that we engage with the Committee, and indeed with Members on both sides. I think that it would be positive to have debates such as this one as the process goes forward.