EU-US Trade and Investment Agreement

Bernard Jenkin Excerpts

Thursday 18th July 2013 Commons Chamber

[John Healey]

I am grateful for and interested by that intervention. I will come to the general questions of the relationship between the UK Parliament and the UK Government and the requirement for a better and more formal system of scrutiny of decisions and involvement in the European Union. I will be interested to hear the hon. Gentleman’s remarks when he contributes to the debate.

Finally on the all-party group, we see this as active but time limited to the period of negotiations towards what we hope is a successful conclusion of the deal. Personally, I hope that Presidents Obama, Van Rompuy and Barroso are right when they declare that they want this deal done within two years.

[Mr Bernard Jenkin (Harwich and North Essex) (Con)]

Does the right hon. Gentleman agree with the Ifo Institute that the UK has the most to gain from a transatlantic free trade agreement, but the problem is that we are likely to be hampered by the foot-dragging and protectionism of other EU member states? Given that non-EU member states in Europe already have free trade agreements with the United States, it remains an option for us to leave the EU and enjoy our own free trade agreement with the United States. Can he think of one reason why we do not have a free trade agreement with the United States like that of Switzerland? Is it because we are in the EU?

[John Healey]

If the hon. Gentleman looks, for instance, at the Bertelsmann Institute’s report, he will see some interesting evidence on the assessment of the potential impact of a comprehensive deal. It points out that the countries that are in Europe but not part of the European Union are likely to lose out the most. Britain could gain tens or even hundreds of thousands of new jobs in the long term through an agreement. In contrast, countries such as Iceland are set to lose at least 1,000 jobs, while Norway is set to lose about 11,000 jobs. In other words, the countries in Europe that are not party to the agreement are likely to lose out in future. The evidence is rather different from that which the hon. Gentleman cites.

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[John Healey]

My hon. Friend has a great deal of expertise and experience in this area, and he makes a strong case. I think that there is a cross-party view, irrespective of views on the British place within Europe, behind the value of well-negotiated and fair trade deals. The example of the Korean deal demonstrates that a deal negotiated through the European Union has particular benefits to Britain.

This debate is welcome though somewhat overdue. About three months, ago I contacted the House of Commons Library to ask for a briefing on the EU trade and investment deal. I said to the researcher, “I’m sure you’ve got something on the stocks; perhaps you could just update the standard briefing that you’ve got.” The response was, “We don’t have one. No one’s asked about this before.” The Library subsequently produced a very good briefing, as well as a very good briefing for hon. Members for this debate. That briefing, combined with the research that the Centre for Economic Policy Research has produced for the European Commission and the impact assessment produced by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, underlines just how important and ground-breaking this deal could be. Simply put, these are the biggest, most ambitious, best prepared bilateral trade negotiations ever. This would be the first ever such deal between economic equals. In other words, the partners have no significant imbalances in power or wealth.

Why do I say that these are the biggest negotiations? Together, the European Union and the US account for about 30% of global trade and almost half the world’s output. The more reliable of the studies and assessments suggest that if the deal is done, it could bring a boost to the UK’s national income of between £4 billion and £10 billion, and a boost to our exports of between 1% and 3% a year.

Why are they the most ambitious negotiations? The transatlantic trade and investment partnership aims not just to remove the remaining tariff barriers to trade between the EU and the US, but to reduce the non-tariff barriers by aligning the regulations, rules and standards to which we operate. It also aims to open the markets in services and public procurement.

Finally, why are they the best prepared negotiations? Really serious work has been going on for almost two years since the high-level working group on jobs and growth was set up between the EU and the US in November 2011.

It is important to remember that this is potentially a deal on trade and investment. Although the two-way trade between the EU and the US is worth about $1 trillion a year, the two-way investment flow is worth about $3.5 trillion each year. Of course, trade and investment have both been sole competences of the EU since the 2009 Lisbon treaty.

[Mr Jenkin]

I am interested in that aspect of the agreement. Historically, the UK has been able to access foreign direct investment free of EU interference. If such investment becomes subject to an international agreement, it will effectively become an exclusive EU competence. The other member states have been very jealous that we get so much foreign direct investment. How can the right hon. Gentleman be so sure that the deal will not be used to hamper flows of foreign direct investment into our country, because that would affect us far more than our fellow member states?

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[Mr Cash]

I am sure that they will do their best, but whether they will do well enough has yet to be established. If we do not know what is going on during the negotiations —and if we do not even know what the mandate is—I must express my concern on that count alone.

I shall continue to quote from the Prime Minister’s letter:

“As David Lidington told your Committee when he appeared before it on 4 July, while the confidential nature of such negotiations means that formally depositing documents is not possible”—

which I have to say concerns me greatly—

“Ministers will keep the Committee abreast of significant developments in writing and we are happy to offer the Committee informal, private briefings on the progress of negotiations.”

We will be monitoring all this. I see that the Chairman of the Business, Innovations and Skills Select Committee, the hon. Member for West Bromwich West (Mr Bailey), is in the Chamber, and I would be happy to exchange ideas and thoughts with him on this. He was a member of the European Scrutiny Committee with me for many years.

[Mr Jenkin]

Does my hon. Friend agree that the challenge will be to reconcile the differing objectives of the member states? That will be extremely difficult because, as a major European economy, we uniquely depend on imports, and we export more to the rest of the world than all the other member states except Germany. At the same time, we are dependent on trade with the EU. We have a unique set of circumstances and a unique economy, and it is going to be extraordinarily difficult to reconcile our requirements with those of the other, very different economies of the EU in one single agreement.

[Mr Cash]

I very much concur with that.

A number of extremely learned articles have been written about this matter, and they show that many European countries stand to be gravely disadvantaged by the deal. I cannot claim that we would be exclusively enhanced by it, but many of the Parliaments and trade associations of many other countries will also be watching these developments. Several countries will be given quite a jolt. An article entitled “Transatlantic free trade: boon or bane for economic cohesion in the EU” states:

“in a broad free trade agreement, trade activities between Great Britain and Sweden as well as between Great Britain and Spain are expected to drop by about 45%. Likewise, Sweden’s imports and exports with Spain and Finland will decline by 40%, and Irish-Dutch trade relations will shrink by 35%.”

All those factors must be taken into account.

However enthusiastic we may be about the concept of free trade, it is important to ask whether the deal is actually to be beneficial to the United Kingdom. It is our task to secure such benefits, and not only that of the EU. We also trade with the whole of the Commonwealth, and our trade relations with the emerging countries, the Commonwealth and the rest of the world have been improving. We have a net surplus of trade with the rest of the world of about £15 billion a year, according to the latest figures for 2012. However, we have a trade deficit with Europe. The figure for 2011 was minus £47 billion; it is now minus £70 billion. The Germans, on the other hand, had a surplus in 2011 of £30 billion, and it is now £72 billion. Many people believe that the United States will benefit the most from the deal, and those figures suggest that it will weigh up all those factors when dealing with these questions. This is a potentially difficult situation that will have to be dealt with.

An article in the Financial Times states:

“There would also be damage around the world from a sweeping US-EU deal. Advanced countries such as Canada, Australia and Japan would suffer, as would many emerging economies. Mexico and Chile, which have strong trading ties with the US, would be among the worst hit, along with most of Africa, Asia and Latin America—with the exception of Brazil.”

Brazil is in a lot of difficulty at the moment, however. The article continues:

“China’s trade flows with the US would shrink”.

There are many elements of all this that need to be thought out.

In the short time left, I shall draw the House’s attention to an article in Economia by Zaki Laïdi, entitled “Europe’s bad trade gamble”. Mr Laïdi is Professor of International Relations at the institute of politics known as Sciences Po in France. I am not saying that he has all the answers, but his article is well worth reading and can be obtained from the Library.

There are many conflicting views of the benefits that could be derived from the deal. The European Scrutiny Committee has made inquiries of the Government, and I would dispute the advantages of the EU-Korea free trade agreement. We know what the position is with regard to the EU, but unfortunately we cannot make any comparison with that arrangement to substantiate the claims of advantages for the UK.

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[Gordon Banks (Ochil and South Perthshire) (Lab)]

I consider this to be a very important issue. I want any new trade agreement between Europe and the United States to have a substantially positive impact on the economy of Britain and, indeed, that of Scotland. I think we can all agree that international trade deals are vital to the creation of long-term economic growth and jobs in a world that is becoming smaller and smaller.

I was pleased to note that the negotiations on this agreement were formally launched, at Lough Erne on 17 June, under the UK presidency of the G8. When the G8 last met in the United Kingdom, it was hosted by Gleneagles, which is in my constituency and which is perpetually linked with our attempts to deliver improvements in the world through the millennium development goals. I hope that Lough Erne may be remembered for playing a massive role in the equalising of access to the United States market for United Kingdom and, indeed, European Union businesses.

I congratulate my right hon. Friend the Member for Wentworth and Dearne (John Healey) on securing the debate. As he told us earlier, the United States and the European Commission have suggested that the deal could be completed by the end of 2014. As we know, it is a very complex deal. I may be a pessimist, but I rather fear that at some point we may be dragged into the 2016 presidential election campaign if we hit a road block, and I hope that matters do not stagnate during 2014 and 2015. I assume that, once the deal is done, it will have to be ratified in this place and in another 28 national Parliaments—including the United States Congress—as well as in the European Parliament, and I am also slightly concerned about the time that will be taken by its journey through 30 Parliaments.

Free trade agreements are very important to Scotland. For instance, the agreements between the European Union and Singapore and between the EU and Colombia and Peru are vital to the Scotch whisky industry, which exported £4.3 billion worth of whisky last year. The United States is the top whisky export marketplace: more than £700 million-worth was exported to it in 2012. It goes without saying that there is no expectation that the negotiations will have any damaging effect on Scotch whisky exports, but I have given that example to demonstrate how important and valuable such agreements can be when UK businesses seize the opportunity to promote the best of British around the world.

It is possible that at the time the agreement is approved, Scotland will be facing an independence referendum. I fear that, if Scotland votes for independence, we shall be very short-term beneficiaries of this piece of work. Perhaps the Minister will tell us at some point whether he has received any representations from the Scottish Government about the challenges that Scotland would face if it became independent and, being outside the European Union, could not benefit from the agreement. Indeed, one has to wonder what would happen to all the benefits of all the other free trade agreements negotiated by the EU if Scotland became independent. What would be the impact on, for instance, Scotch whisky production, exports and jobs?

Let me now return to more mainstream arguments. As my right hon. Friend pointed out, it is important for us to be able to explain the benefits of the deal to the population of the United Kingdom so that our constituents understand what it means to them in their daily lives.

The deal has the potential to be the largest trade deal of all time because the building blocks of trade between the EU and the US are already in place. As my right hon. Friend the Member for Wentworth and Dearne said earlier, one major British car manufacturer has already told Danny Lopez, the British consul general in New York, that it will save about £130 million annually from the elimination of tariffs as part of this deal. There are real gains and benefits for the UK and UK manufacturing from this difficult set of negotiations, therefore. The Government must ensure there is a road map that allows British SMEs to reap the benefits of this deal, because we will get real growth in this economy from the manufacturing and exporting SMEs.

It is difficult to conclude without referring to an issue that has hung over this debate: our membership of the EU. I do not always agree with the statements of Ministers in this Government, but I was pleased to hear the Minister without Portfolio say it would be very difficult for a trade agreement of this sort to continue if the UK left the EU. He might want to remind some of his party colleagues of the benefits of being part of the world’s largest trading bloc. That is important to the UK.

[Mr Jenkin]

What is the basis for this assertion? The evidence is that small countries find it easier to do trade deals and big trading blocs find it very difficult. I think of Switzerland, for example, and the EU’s trade deal with Korea.

[Gordon Banks]

I fundamentally disagree. The Minister without Portfolio will tell the hon. Gentleman where he is wrong in his thinking. There is no doubt that if he speaks to the Scotch whisky industry it will tell him about the benefits of being in a large trading bloc. The Scotch whisky industry has benefited, and if the hon. Gentleman will not take cognisance of that, he will not take cognisance of anything.

This is a really important opportunity for the UK. I want it to be important for Scotland, and I want it to be important for Scotland in the UK and in the EU.

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[Matthew Hancock]

The source of the statement was President Obama. He said during a press conference with the Prime Minister—I do not have the precise quote, but I have the substance of it—that he thought it was right to try to renegotiate a relationship before deciding to leave. I will write to the hon. Gentleman with the precise quote. I think that it is better to listen to a politician, rather than officials representing a politician.

Crucially, the free trade deal must genuinely support free trade, which I think it will. My hon. Friend the Member for Aberconwy commented on that, channelling Bright. Negotiating an ambitious programme is vital. Many numbers have been quoted in the debate. We are already negotiating trade deals with Canada, India and Japan, each of which represents 2% of our exports. The United States represents 15% of our exports. I think that sums up the scale and importance of the proposition.

The relationship is already exceptionally close and deep. The US is the top export destination after the rest of the EU, and the US and the UK are each other’s largest foreign investors, supporting over 1 million jobs in this country, and US investment stock in the UK is worth around £200 billion, which is eight times the size of US investment stock in China. The scale is important, the Government’s ambition is high, and all areas are in scope. Of course, as has been mentioned, the audio-visual sector has been set to one side, but there is the potential to include it if negotiations go in that direction.

With regard to whether regional jobs data can be made available, the hon. Member for West Bromwich West (Mr Bailey) and the right hon. Member for Wentworth and Dearne argued strongly that we need to ensure that we make the argument for the deal. We will look at publishing regional jobs data in as robust a way as possible. Arguments were made, not least by the hon. Members for Hartlepool (Mr Wright) and for Birmingham, Yardley (John Hemming) and my hon. Friend the Member for Skipton and Ripon (Julian Smith), giving specific examples of how the deal would help British businesses and jobs and be a positive force for the economy and prosperity. It is some of the specific examples that were given that make the case most eloquently and strongly.

[Mr Jenkin]

Will the Minister address the concern, raised by my hon. Friend the Member for Stone (Mr Cash), that there are already vast disparities of economic potential in different parts of the EU, which has caused massive trade imbalances between member states? The danger is that a genuine free trade deal would exacerbate those tensions? Will the incentive in the EU not be for a more protectionist deal than we would want? How will he address that?

[Matthew Hancock]

The incentive in the EU is for liberalisation, because overall the analysis of the European Commission and the analysis that we commissioned on the impact on the UK indicated a positive impact on every member state. Of course there are winners and losers, but the overall impact on each part of the EU will be positive. That is what the Commission’s analysis showed.