Scottish Referendum (Trident)

Pete Wishart Excerpts

Thursday 7th March 2013 Westminster Hall

[Mr Alan Reid (Argyll and Bute) (LD)]

It is a pleasure to speak under your chairmanship, Mr Bone. I congratulate the Chairman of the Scottish Affairs Committee, the hon. Member for Glasgow South West (Mr Davidson), on opening the debate and outlining clearly the choices that will face the Scottish people in next year’s referendum. I agree with almost everything that he said—I think, though, that Helensburgh does have a good claim to be the capital of an independent Scotland. Apart from that, I fully agree with what he said about the future of Scotland and the choice that the Scottish people face in the referendum in October 2014.

In the referendum, the people of Scotland will have two choices. One is to maintain the Union; the other is to separate from the United Kingdom and form an independent Scottish state. For one path—keeping the Union—we have a very clear idea of what will be based at Faslane and Coulport. We know that the Royal Navy will stay there. We know that all the Astute class submarines will move to Faslane, which will become the base for all Britain’s submarines. We know that the number of jobs there will increase to more than 8,000.

For the alternative path—separation—we have very little idea of what will happen. I hope that the SNP Members present, the hon. Members for Angus (Mr Weir) and for Perth and North Perthshire (Pete Wishart), will give a clear explanation of what would happen should the SNP win the referendum and what the Scottish armed forces would be made up of.

The debate is entitled on the Order Paper “Terminating Trident—Days or Decades?” First, I want to touch on what I think would happen to Trident should the SNP win the referendum. The Scottish Government have been adamant that they would not lease to the UK or any other Government a base for submarines that were nuclear-powered or that carried nuclear missiles. I believe them. I think that that is something in which they are sincere, and that we have to take it as a starting point that Trident would go in days rather than decades.

However, as the Chairman of the Select Committee outlined, there are great practical difficulties. What would the United Kingdom do when faced with an eviction notice from an independent Scottish Government? The Committee, in our evidence-gathering sessions, took evidence from a wide variety of experts about whether it was possible to relocate Trident and the submarines elsewhere in England or Wales, and that just does not seem to be within the realms of practical possibility. My hon. Friend the Member for North Devon (Sir Nick Harvey), when he was the Minister for the Armed Forces, gave evidence to the Committee and described the cost as “gargantuan”. Other experts gave very large numbers. Therefore, there would be a cost problem.

The other problem would be location. Whereas it may be possible to replicate the facilities at Faslane elsewhere, replicating the facilities at Coulport elsewhere would be extremely difficult. The hill is very large. There are many such hills in Argyll, but finding such a large hill in the rest of the United Kingdom that was next to the sea and relatively close to where there was an industrial work force would be very difficult. I believe that only one place has been mentioned. The Welsh Government at one point put forward Milford Haven as an alternative, but I think that that met with objections from other people in Wales and I certainly have not heard that idea being floated recently. There would also be the problem of what to do with the petrochemical complex there.

The conclusion, I think, is clear. I simply do not believe that if the Scottish Government won the referendum and evicted the Royal Navy from Faslane, the United Kingdom Government would relocate elsewhere, because as well as the problems of location and the political problems, there would be the problem of cost. “Gargantuan” was how my hon. Friend the Member for North Devon described it, and the United Kingdom would lose 10% of its tax revenue when Scotland became a separate state.

I therefore think that the only choice open to the United Kingdom Government would be decommissioning. I think that the decommissioning would probably start fairly quickly after the referendum if the SNP won it. The timetable that the SNP has laid out is as follows: 18 months of negotiations, followed by Scotland becoming a separate state on 1 April 2016. During that time, of course, the devolved Government at Holyrood would have a mandate from the referendum to commence negotiations. I believe that they are sincere in their opposition to nuclear weapons and that there would be no point in the United Kingdom Government hanging about; I think that the decommissioning would probably start straight away. [Interruption.] From a sedentary position, the hon. Member for Perth and North Perthshire says that they would have no choice.

[Pete Wishart (Perth and North Perthshire) (SNP)]

Their choice.

[Mr Reid]

I am now confused by the hon. Gentleman. Rather than chuntering away from a sedentary position, perhaps he could get up and explain just what the position of the Scottish Government would be if they won the referendum. No, he has chosen not to do so. I look forward to his speech.

The Select Committee report said that, should the SNP win the referendum, it would probably take about two years for Trident to be gone from Faslane. There would be two years’ worth of work there—probably not as much work as there is at the moment—in the decommissioning process, but what would happen next? That is a big question on which we still await details from the SNP, but let us consider what other countries that are in a similar position to that of an independent Scottish state do with their defence.

Let us take one of the countries in what used to be termed by the SNP the arc of prosperity—Ireland. The Irish navy consists of eight patrol boats. However, eight patrol boats are not going to keep anything like the current Faslane work force in a job. It is also extremely unlikely that those eight patrol boats would all be based at Faslane, because what assets would an independent Scottish navy seek to defend? The key assets would clearly be the oil rigs and fishing grounds in the North sea, but as the Chairman of the Select Committee pointed out, that is entirely the opposite side of the country to Faslane.

I can imagine an incident on an oil rig, for which a patrol boat based at Faslane would have to sail down the Clyde, round the Mull of Kintyre, up the west coast of Scotland, through the Minch, round Cape Wrath, through the Pentland firth and eventually arrive at the incident. Clearly an independent Scotland would base at least half of its patrol boats at an east coast port—Rosyth, Aberdeen or Lerwick, for example. Even if Scotland’s navy were slightly bigger than Ireland’s and we had 10 or 15 patrol boats, probably only about six of them would be based at Faslane. That would keep only a handful of people in jobs.

We often hear references to the Norwegian and Danish navies from the SNP. They are certainly bigger than the Irish navy, but I have to point out that Scandinavian taxation is a lot higher than taxation in Britain or Ireland. People in Scandinavian countries pay about 10p to 15p in the pound more in taxation than people in Britain or Ireland do. I have never heard the SNP say that we would all be paying 10p or 15p more in the pound in taxes in an independent Scotland, which we would have to do to have a navy the size of a Scandinavian navy, but even if we matched the size of the biggest of the Scandinavian navies, there would still be far fewer jobs at Faslane and Coulport than there are at the moment.

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[Michael Connarty]

I advise my hon. Friend not to put the chemicals that are contained in the nuclear fuses in the back of his Vectra. In fact, I would not put them in the back of anything that was not a nuclear bomb store. The fuses might not set off a nuclear weapon, but they might blow his Vectra back to the future.

Eight months for removing the warheads is correct. They are kept separate and can be detached and taken somewhere else. As for it taking up to 25 years to relocate the facilities, all the analyses now available publicly in the “Nowhere to Go” document by the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament show that there is nowhere for the weapons to be relocated. There was nowhere all those years ago that was thought to be isolated and secure enough to install the nuclear weapons. Now, given the population changes in the conurbations around those areas, it is unlikely that anywhere would allow those weapons to be installed. The question of relocating them, therefore, could not be resolved unless there was some sort of dictatorship of Government on the people in the UK. Certainly, the idea of putting them in Wales or Northern Ireland would cause a massive uprising.

Should we even be thinking about moving the weapons somewhere else? It is a fantasy to think that in the event of a nuclear conflagration, Scotland would be safer having them somewhere else that was not Faslane or Coulport. Do we really think that an enemy of the UK would not want to bomb the establishments based in my constituency in Grangemouth, where the North sea oil and gas comes in, just because we put the weapons somewhere else? What are we going to do? Are we going to paint CND signs on the tops of all the buildings in Scotland? Let me own up to something. When I was leader of a council, we actually did put CND signs on our vans. Somebody pointed out that we should have put them on the roof because they could not be seen on the side of the vans, but we were young and foolish then. I have learned now that it is a nonsense to say that we are not part of the UK because we do not have the bomb any more and that if there were a conflagration we would be safe. I thought that the SNP Government and Alex Salmond, who is just about my age, had also grown up.

[Pete Wishart]

Of course it is right to say that if there were a nuclear strike, it is unlikely that Scotland would be spared the consequences, but should one not reflect the values of one’s community or one’s nation and say, “We refuse to hold these weapons. We refuse to threaten other peoples with these weapons.” Should we not be doing what we can to reflect the views of the Scottish people in this matter?

[Michael Connarty]

The hon. Gentleman is actually a little bit late. Having campaigned with the Labour movement over many years, my understanding is that more than 70% of the people of Scotland are already against these weapons. Therefore, changing the mood of the people in Scotland by removing the weapons is not the point. I want to see the mood changed throughout the United Kingdom so that we can persuade a Government in the future—a Labour Government, I hope—that we should be moving in the direction of taking the weapons out of the whole land mass of the UK; that is my aim. If my SNP colleagues, who support the idea of ridding the world of these nuclear weapons, want to go off and hide in a corner then they can do so, but they should not pretend that it is sensible Government policy. I am working up to my next point, “Don’t dump the people.”

[Michael Connarty]

I would not necessarily drift into unparliamentary language, such as “hypocrisy”; I think that is ill-judged and unfortunately a negative force in politics. I worry about the principles of the SNP. The issue is not independence, but the tenets on which the SNP bases its independence argument, of being separate and somehow thinking that it can be detached from other people’s concerns.

I am a socialist; I still want to see a world socialist organisation that tears down capitalism. If we have not learned the lesson from what the gamblers in the banks did—it was not gamblers in the Government, but gamblers in the banks—to our nations, not just here but throughout the world, then we have learned nothing. Of course, this Government have learned nothing from all that, as we can see from the policies that they are involved in at the moment.

The figure given by my hon. Friend the Member for Glasgow South West (Mr Davidson), the Chairman of the Scottish Affairs Committee, was that 6,700 jobs—possibly up to 8,200 jobs—rely on Trident at the moment. There is also the question about all the other jobs that are attached to it, such as shipbuilding and the industries and supply sources that feed into it. I do not want to see those people made redundant; I want to see these people being reskilled, redeployed and creating useful things for our nation.

That is the one thing missing from the SNP’s arguments—the SNP has not done that work. It has not worked out how to deal with this question. The idea is that we just empty the warheads out of Trident and put all the soldiers in who are going to come back and volunteer, before they are quickly made redundant because £2.5 billion of budget will not keep many soldiers in a job and Scotland certainly will not have a navy, or many helicopters or planes to fly. It is a joke, it is unfair and it is an insult to the Scottish people to say, by assertion, “We can do this and it will all work.”

Instead we can look at the people who have been arguing closely alongside me—or me alongside them, I should say, because I respect them and their contribution is much greater than mine. For example, there are the people from the Bradford Disarmament Research Centre, including Dr Nick Ritchie, who has been doing tremendous work. The centre produced a report on Trident in 2008, “Trident: What is it For?”, which argues and shows that Trident is not for anything in the modern world, quite frankly; Trident is a nonsense. The centre talks sensibly, as the SNP should be doing to challenge the assertions that are made and the questions that are asked by the Scottish Affairs Committee. The centre produced another report in 2009, “Stepping down the Nuclear Ladder: Options for Trident on a Path to Zero”, which worked out how we can go—step by step—away from these weapons and what we can do with them. In 2010, the centre produced the report, “Continuity/Change: Rethinking Options for Trident Replacement”. These reports are fundamental sources of information about how we can move away from a world, and a UK, that has nuclear weapons in its armoury, and use the money for something much more useful.

However, what do we have from the Government? What we have from the Government is the fact that they are going to step up the main-gate costs in 2016. Those costs are going to be enormous and we will be landed with another generation of weapons, like for like, that is not justifiable, that was never justifiable according to the 2008 report I referred to, that is not sustainable and that should not be moved along with.

As we know, a commission is sitting and considering the question of the future of Trident. I had the pleasure of going along to one of the discussions around the review, “Trident Alternatives Review and the Future of Barrow”. Why do I mention Barrow? It is because that review is the kind of work that the SNP Government should have been doing if they really meant to remove Trident and if they were not just about government by assertion or politics by gesture. That is the kind of work that should have been done, but I see none of that work being done by the SNP. That review argued very strongly that if we want to have a situation where Barrow, which builds these submarines, will be without that work, we must invest £100 million per year in that community to reskill people and look to the future. If that process continued, there would then be a new set of people with a new set of skills, who would build an economy in that area.

The SNP has done none of that work. What are we going to have? Heathers and bagpipes up the Kyle of Lochalsh? Is that what the future is going to be about? Is it going to be about emptying out the area and letting the people drift away, and hoping that the people who remain there will somehow attract tourists who will give them handouts? The work has not been done.

I will tell you an interesting fact, Mr Rosindell, as you have taken the Chair. When I looked into my wife’s ancestors, I discovered that her third great-grandfather was the ferry manager from Ardentinny to Faslane. In his day, there was an agricultural community on both sides of the water, and that route became a route for people to go down into the central belt of Scotland; sadly, that emptied out most of that area. The idea that we could not have people living there with high skills, in a very attractive area, who could work in the conurbations of Scotland and commute, or in fact who could create whole new industries in that area, is a nonsense.

Let us consider a parallel. When I first came into the House, I went down to visit Baglan Bay. Baglan Bay was a BP refinery and chemical site, because we thought that the oil would come from the other side of the world and to the west coast of the nation. BP realised that would not make sense, because of North sea oil, so it shut down Baglan Bay, slowly but surely. However, there are more jobs in that area today than there were when BP had its refinery and when there was a chemical industry there, because the Wales Office, which was then responsible, planned for the change, trained people for it and put the infrastructure in for it. None of that type of work has been done by the SNP Government, because they live by assertion; they do not live by standard logic and proof.

[Pete Wishart]

I have listened very carefully to the hon. Gentleman’s remarks. Like me, he is passionately against nuclear weapons; he believes that we need to rid the world of this scourge—this immoral curse that we have on our land. We say that we will get rid of them after we secure independence. He wants rid of them too, so what is his plan for jobs once he secures his ambition to ensure that Trident is cleared from Faslane? What would he do for jobs?

[Michael Connarty]

I am very happy to answer that question, because I have just given the example of the work that has been done on Barrow. People who are looking at the future of the UK without nuclear weapons are looking at what it takes. It is not a matter of location; it is a matter of industrial, manufacturing and education policy. Whether or not we had stopped making gas lanterns in Faslane and we were going to make some new things for the nation, we would have to plan and train, put people in the skill set, and give them the infrastructure. Whether something is made redundant by technology or by the movement of history, such as the movement of agricultural workers to the conurbations, it is a cycle. A nation must plan ahead for the people and for its needs in the future.

That is what is missing. A very legitimate question was asked by the Scottish Affairs Committee, “What do you do in this situation?” The Committee is asking the SNP Government to answer that question, and it is getting nothing; it is getting silence. I do not think that this argument about Trident adds to the arguments for independence, but it would be nice to think that the Government of Scotland at this moment were planning to do something and would put forward a plan that the people could look at, but they are not doing that. Instead, they are saying, “Jump off the cliff. It’s all right, you’ll find the water’s warm when you land.”

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[Pete Wishart (Perth and North Perthshire) (SNP)]

Welcome to the Chair, Mr Rosindell. I hope you enjoy your little session in what is always the friendly, convivial atmosphere of Scottish debates.

I welcome this debate, because everybody knows that Trident will be a huge, iconic issue in the 2014 independence referendum. It will probably shape a number of people’s impressions about independence, and it could have a major influence on how people choose to vote. We can be absolutely and abundantly clear—every Member in the Chamber understands this—that if there is a yes vote in the independence referendum, Scotland will be clear of the scourge of the immoral weapon of mass destruction that is the Trident system. The Scottish people and the Scottish nation will no longer host the UK’s arsenal of these appalling weapons; our nation, our society and our community will no longer host Trident weapons.

Trident will be removed as quickly and safely as possible—that is what we have said. If colleagues here want to agonise over what “quickly and safely” means, we will leave that up to them. We will co-operate, sit down, discuss, negotiate and be as helpful as possible, but our intention is to get rid of Trident weapons as quickly and safely as possible.

We would sit down with the Government today to start discussing how that will be achieved, but they have famously refused pre-negotiation. We have no intention of having pre-negotiations with the Government; we understand why they, quite rightly, would not want to pre-negotiate any aspect of independence, which would seem like they were conceding the result, but they should, for goodness’ sake, sit round a table and at least discuss the issue. Surely, we should try to work together in the spirit of the Edinburgh agreement and to find the best outcome, whether there is a yes vote or a no. It is surely in the Government’s interests to sit down with the Scottish Government to work out what would happen to their weapons system if the Scottish people decided to vote yes and wanted rid of the whole thing.

[Pamela Nash]

The UK Government asserted only quite recently that they would not conduct those negotiations. Did the Scottish Government request talks before that?

[Pete Wishart]

We have consistently told the Government—not just on Trident, but on a number of other issues—that we need to discuss round the table what will happen in the event of a yes vote for Scottish independence.

[Mr Reid]

The hon. Gentleman wants the UK Government to sit down with him, but the work force at Faslane and Coulport want the SNP to sit down with them and to tell them what jobs there will be after independence. When the debate finishes, will he sit down with representatives of the work force at Faslane and tell them the SNP’s plans for it?

[Pete Wishart]

They will be negotiating not with me but with someone further up the pay scale. Today, I have heard some of the evidence presented in the Scottish Affairs Committee, and it would be an absolute pleasure and joy to sit down with the trade union representatives for Faslane to describe and explain our ambitions for Faslane. We have clear and ambitious projects for a conventional base at Faslane. We will try to reassure the work force and to make sure they understand what we are trying to achieve, instead of being told some of the myths we have heard today.

[Gemma Doyle]

I am disappointed the SNP defence spokesperson is not here. I think this is the second debate on Trident he has been absent from. When I challenged him on this issue, he said we could not have negotiations until after Scotland had taken its decision. What exactly is the SNP’s policy?

[Pete Wishart]

We want to do what was set out in the Edinburgh agreement, with both Governments planning for the outcome so that we achieve the best possible result for a yes or no vote. We will enter the negotiations with the best possible intent, and we will hope for the best possible outcome. All we are trying to do now is encourage the UK Government to approach the discussions on the same basis. So far, they have refused to do so.

It is nice to have the hon. Lady here, but where, for goodness’ sake, is the shadow Defence Secretary? He gave a rambling interview the other morning. When he was challenged about Labour policy on nuclear weapons, he said:

“We’re not a unilateralist party. I mean, that happened in the ’80s, that was a flirtation with surrealism. We’re not a unilateralist party and we’re not going to become a unilateralist party.”

He added:

“We’re in favour of the UK retaining a nuclear capability”.

The Labour party is totally committed to remaining a nuclear party; it will renew Trident, and it will probably replace it like for like—that is what we have with the Labour party.

I have no idea what the report is intended to achieve. The rather silly Scottish Affairs Committee set out to blow a hole in the yes campaign’s ambitions for Trident, but all it has done is to suggest how easy those ambitions are to achieve—thank you, Scottish Affairs Committee. To be clear, the Committee is one of those strange, dysfunctional Committees; it is a really bizarre concoction just now. It is composed exclusively of Unionists, and it produces reports for Unionist consumption.

[Pamela Nash]

The hon. Gentleman is being very generous with his time. I am a proud member of the Scottish Affairs Committee. There is an SNP member, but, unfortunately, she has not taken her seat for quite some time. Why is she still missing in action? If he is concerned that the Committee is made up only of members of Unionist parties, he might like to take her seat.

[Pete Wishart]

I think the hon. Lady knows exactly why we are not taking our place on the Committee. We will not take up that place as long as the hon. Member for Glasgow South West (Mr Davidson) remains in the Chair. Given the way our female member of the Committee was treated, we will not take up that place. The place is available, and we will come back to it, but not as long as the hon. Gentleman is in the Chair.

[Mr Davidson]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

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[Pete Wishart]

No, I am not discussing this any further with the hon. Gentleman, if he does not mind.

The Scottish Affairs Committee is the most bitterly partisan parliamentary Committee anywhere in the UK. Outside Unionist circles, it has lost any credibility it had. I was a member of the Committee, as was my hon. Friend the Member for Angus (Mr Weir). We served under distinguished Chairs—in my case, Mohammad Sarwar. The Committee produced reasonable reports, which were accepted across the political spectrum—but no more. A Committee that cannot even bring itself to say the word that will go on the independence ballot does not deserve the time, effort or credibility it thinks it should have.

What did the report actually say? This is really good. The Committee found out how easy it would be to get rid of nuclear weapons in an independent Scotland. The Chairman even went as far as to suggest that Scotland could be disarmed in a matter of days. The missiles and submarines could be discharged in a matter of two years. That is music to the ears of all of us who have campaigned so long and so hard for our nation to be free of nuclear weapons. The Scottish Affairs Committee did a fantastic job by telling us how easy it would be, although given its partisan approach, I have no idea why it decided to do so. I do not know whether any of its members are still to speak, but if they do, they must tell us why they produced a report suggesting that it would be so easy to get rid of Trident from Scotland.

The Committee also tried to suggest what the rest of the United Kingdom might want to do, and presented a few options—perhaps even a few sensible ones. Were the UK Government grateful or happy at that? Not a bit of it. The response totally ignored all the suggestions and proposals. The Government refused to look at anything. They were not even prepared to consider the suggestions of the Scottish Affairs Committee. What a waste of time. The UK Government must get over their self-defeating, almost petulant and childish, behaviour. They should sit at the table with the Scottish Government for talks about what they would do to get rid of Trident when we vote yes in next year’s independence referendum.

We now know that only a yes vote in the referendum will get rid of Trident. The Tories, of course, are committed to Trident. They want to spend £100 billion renewing it. The Liberals—I am, as usual, not so sure about them. They are conducting some sort of review. The hon. Member for North Devon (Sir Nick Harvey) did some fantastic work on it, and it is now in the hands of the Chief Secretary to the Treasury. We have no idea, as usual, what the Liberals intend to do. I think theirs is a unilateralist party.

[Mr Reid]

indicated dissent.

[Pete Wishart]

No, it is not. I think they are against nuclear weapons: it is just that they quite like Trident. That is the Liberals, anyway: we will leave that aside.

[Mike Crockart (Edinburgh West) (LD)]

The hon. Gentleman has been speaking for 11 minutes. Will he stop the comedy routine and get back to the substance of the debate? Many people in Scotland are waiting to hear what plans the SNP has for when Trident is moved out—in a matter of days after independence, as now seems to be the intention. When will he get to that detail?

[Pete Wishart]

As usual, it is only from the Scottish National party that opposition to what is proposed will be heard. The hon. Gentleman suggests that I should stick to my script, although no one else who has taken part in the debate has been anywhere close to doing that, which is slightly ridiculous.

The Labour party would replace Trident, like for like.

[Gemma Doyle]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Pete Wishart]

I have been speaking for 11 minutes, as the hon. Member for Edinburgh West (Mike Crockart) said, and want to allow others to speak.

We now know that the Labour party will continue to be committed to Trident, so the only way to get rid of nuclear weapons from Scotland, and clear us of that scourge—that immoral weapon of mass destruction—is to vote yes in the independence referendum.

[Mr Reid]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Pete Wishart]

I have given way to the hon. Gentleman twice already.

A yes vote would get rid of a weapon of mass destruction, and we are not allowed to keep it anyway. If we were to become a new nation after independence, as the no campaigners claim we would, we would not be able to keep nuclear weapons under the non-proliferation treaty. New nations are not allowed to host nuclear weapons, so it would be illegal under international law for us to have them. We would have to get rid of them and it would be up to the UK how to deal with that.

Scotland wants rid of nuclear weapons. As my hon. Friend the Member for Angus put it, even Scotland’s Westminster MPs want rid of Trident. Not long ago, in 2007, 33 voted against Trident and 22 voted for it. They are in good company, because the majority of people in Scotland want rid of it, as do the Churches and the trade unions. Every part of civic society supports the notion that we must get rid of that weapon of mass destruction. That is why I say that Trident will be an iconic issue in the referendum—because so many people in Scotland oppose it.

[Mr McKenzie]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Pete Wishart]

I cannot give way, because more hon. Members want to speak.

Trident is a system for the Brezhnevs of the world, not the bin Ladens. It is for another age, and people understand that. Yet the Government will spend up to £100 billion on renewing it. Can we believe that? In a triple-dip recession—a time of austerity, the bedroom tax and hard living for most of our constituents—they are prepared to spend £100 billion on the renewal of Trident. That is an appalling decision for any Government. Scotland’s share of the upkeep alone is £163 million, and there is so much more that we could do with that, as my hon. Friend the Member for Angus said. Faslane will have a fantastic future as a conventional naval base. As an independent country we will be able to respond to our own defence needs.

[Several hon. Members]

rose—

[Pete Wishart]

I cannot give way. I am just finishing. We have our own defence needs and strategic requirements and the Scottish people have a fantastic opportunity to rid themselves of an evil weapon. If they want Trident out, they should vote yes to Scottish independence. The case is already overwhelming and compelling. The ability to rid Scotland of such an evil weapon of mass destruction helps that case.

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[Gemma Doyle (West Dunbartonshire) (Lab/Co-op)]

It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship today, Mr Rosindell. I am grateful to have the opportunity to contribute to this important debate and to follow my hon. Friend the Member for Airdrie and Shotts (Pamela Nash), who made an important contribution, bringing the perspective of the vital international context to our discussions. As she said, the defence and security of any nation or state is the key responsibility of a Government.

Debates on the future of the nuclear deterrent have been and will continue to be an important aspect of the referendum discussions that are already well under way throughout Scotland, and indeed the rest of the UK. The significance of the issue has been demonstrated by the decision of the Scottish Affairs Committee to focus one of its inquiries fully on the subject. Furthermore, we have Members from throughout the rest of the UK attending the debate today, which shows how important it is. The report, which I read with interest, raises a number of key points about the deterrent and points out possible outcomes and situations that might arise. The facts about the available options for the future of the deterrent, were Scotland to leave the UK, leave no one feeling particularly satisfied with any of the potential outcomes.

The UK’s nuclear deterrent has been the cornerstone of our national security for more than half a century, and although the cold war divisions have gone, they have been replaced by new threats. We support retention of the minimum, credible, independent nuclear deterrent. The last Parliament voted to proceed with the initial stages of renewal, and we support that decision, although I am aware that some hon. Members here today voted in a different way in Parliament.

We eagerly await the outcome of the Lib Dem alternatives review. I confirm that the comments attributed to my right hon. Friend the Member for East Renfrewshire (Mr Murphy), the shadow Secretary of State, and to me in this debate are not the case. I stated clearly that we had not committed to like-for-like renewal of Trident, which is why we are awaiting the outcome of the alternatives review. Our position has been clear throughout. If the hon. Member for Perth and North Perthshire (Pete Wishart) does not believe me, CND and Labour CND have tweeted that I said that here today. If he will not take my word, perhaps he will take their word. I do not often rely on them for comments.

[Pete Wishart]

Will the hon. Lady clarify Labour’s position on the nuclear deterrent? What is its trend of thinking? Will a Labour Government renew Trident or not ?

[Gemma Doyle]

I am happy to repeat that as often as the hon. Gentleman wants, but I suspect that colleagues would like me to move on. I have said again and again that we are awaiting the outcome of the alternatives review and, as I have just said, we are committed to retaining a minimum, independent, credible, alternative deterrent. Before deciding how that will be provided, we await the review, as do all other parties in Parliament, and we will then see what it says. I have told the hon. Gentleman this about four times, and I hope that he now understands the position.

I am a little concerned about progress on the review. I understand that the Royal Navy has not been asked for its opinion, and it should be. I believe that the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, who represents Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey and who is leading the review, does not even have a pass for the Ministry of Defence building, so I am not sure what work is ongoing, but everyone is eagerly awaiting it.

We absolutely support a policy of multilateral disarmament, and like everyone who has spoken here today, I want a world free of nuclear weapons. The last Labour Government made progress in reducing the number of warheads from 300 to 160 just before the 2010 election.

The Committee outlined a number of alternative possibilities for the deterrent’s future, and it is clear that if the people of Scotland vote to break off from the rest of the UK, a separate Scotland will have to decide, in negotiation with the UK Government, the future of the nuclear deterrent, whoever the Government of a newly separate Scotland are. I do not presume, as the hon. Member for Perth and North Perthshire did, that that will be an SNP Government. The nationalists have, as with all other issues, made a series of assertions without any basis, so it falls to us to consider the reality.

The Committee considered that if the Government of a newly separate Scotland decided that they no longer wanted to house the nuclear deterrent or, conversely, if the Government of the remaining UK decided they did not want to base the capability in a foreign country, one option might be for the deterrent to be decommissioned and taken out of service. However, that does not seem likely because the UK Government are committed to retaining a nuclear deterrent.

The Committee also looked at the options for the short-term relocation of Trident, and specifically how the UK’s allies might be involved in providing a temporary base. One option would be to work with the USA at its submarine base in Georgia, but, as the Committee noted, questions would probably arise about the perceived independence of the capability. For most people, independence is a key desire behind having a nuclear deterrent, and the same argument might be applied to the Committee’s consideration of stationing the deterrent in France. Although it is closer and the geography would make things easier, there might be problem with finding sufficient space to house it.

A more likely outcome is that the UK Government would seek to relocate the capability elsewhere in the UK. Hon. Members will be aware from the Committee’s report that relocation of the deterrent is not a simple process. Apart from identification of an alternative site and the issues of physical relocation, the exercise would be extremely expensive. Some sources have suggested that it could cost £20 billion to £25 billion. The previous Minister for the Armed Forces made it clear that the cost would dwarf the £3.5 billion cost of recent upgrade work at Faslane.

I have visited the naval base on the Clyde. Any other hon. Members who have done so will know that it is akin to a small town with a range of facilities and accommodation, as well as the necessary equipment and infrastructure to provide a centre for our submarines.

Estimates that the deterrent will remain in Scotland for anything up to 20 years while a new base is developed raise serious questions, which need to be addressed and which cast significant doubt on the nationalists’ view that voting for separation equals unilateral disarmament. I am far from convinced that even unilateralists would see that as a victory, and comments during the debate today back that up. I believe in multilateral disarmament, and there would not be a victory for anyone in simply moving the nuclear capability deterrent 165 miles south. Surely our interests are best served by working internationally with our allies, partners and other countries towards multilateral disarmament.

The UK is committed to retaining a deterrent, so the most likely outcome is relocation to elsewhere in the UK. That would mean removal of Faslane and with it thousands of jobs on the base and in our wider industry, the future of which is far from certain under these plans. The report states:

“Several witnesses in our inquiry commented on the vacuum of discussion on how separation would affect defence in Scotland”.

More than one major defence employer in Scotland has recently expressed similar concerns to me that there is so little detail about the nationalists’ plans for separation and defence in a separate Scotland that it is extremely difficult seriously to engage in any way with the question of what separation would mean for defence and the defence industry in Scotland. That is a fair comment.

Most sensible people would say that if the case has not been made and information is not there, the answer must be no. The nationalists are certainly failing to put any meat on the bones of their randomised top-line numbers. I can give them some numbers: 6,500 jobs at the naval base, about half and half military and civilian, and a conservative estimate of 4,500 jobs supported throughout the wider economy with £270 million pumped into the Scottish economy every year. That is what the nationalists want to scrap. The shop stewards are right to demand answers. They deserve to have the information to give to their members so that we can have a proper discussion.

The nationalists want to assure us that when they have told the Royal Navy to take all its submarines, nuclear-armed and nuclear-powered, out of Scottish waters, nothing will change at Faslane and Coulport. I have even heard a west of Scotland MSP claim that more people will be employed at Faslane after separation. I hope that they are beginning to realise how ridiculous their claims are, because they are insulting my constituents. The nationalists should make no mistake. Without the Vanguard subs, there will be no Faslane and no jobs, but a seriously wounded local economy.

When the Navy has gone, the civilian jobs will go, because they support the Navy. An employer to whom I spoke recently acknowledged that removal of Faslane would mean starting with a blank sheet of paper. It would not mean, as the SNP want to say, that jobs will be protected.

The SNP says that it would have a joint service headquarters as well as basing the Scottish navy at Faslane, but they will not give us any detail. I watched the hon. Member for Perth and North Perthshire nodding vigorously as Members challenged him, asking him very politely to provide information in his speech, but he gave not one jot of detail. There was nothing at all. Even the retired Lieutenant-Colonel Stuart Crawford, whom I would describe—I hope I am not misrepresenting him—as an independent military expert who is sympathetic to the idea of independence, stated that the maximum number of jobs that he could see Faslane supporting would be around 1,000 to 1,500. That is his opinion, not mine.

Other commentators have asked, as did my constituency neighbour,the hon. Member for Argyll and Bute (Mr Reid), that if the primary job of the Scottish navy was to protect the oil platforms, what sense would it make to base the naval capability on the west coast of Scotland? Do not get me wrong—I will always argue for that, no matter what situation we are in, but we have to look at the facts here. It is worth noting that the job of protecting the oil platforms is currently done by non-militarised agencies, so I am not sure how those people would feel about their jobs being shunted, so that Salmond’s navy could come in to take over.

Today is a very significant day in the referendum campaign because public scrutiny is being given to a leaked Scottish Government Cabinet document, which the Minister has referred to. It reveals the truth about the nationalists’ spending plans in a separate Scotland. It is worth looking at exactly what it says. On defence, the Scottish Finance Secretary, John Swinney, wrote:

“Historically defence spending in Scotland has been lower than Scotland’s population share of the UK defence budget.”

In saying that, he demonstrates that he, like his colleagues, does not understand that spending on overseas operations cannot be attributed to various parts of the regions and nations of the UK. He continues:

“I have made clear to the Defence Workstream that a much lower budget must be assumed.”

I hope that the bluster will now stop. There will be less money, not more, spent in a separate Scotland on defence.

I am just checking how long I have been speaking for—I could go on, but I will draw my comments to a close, so that the Minister has enough time to sum up. All I would say in conclusion is that I do not see how anybody can be particularly happy or satisfied with the outcome of the possibilities for the deterrent—[Interruption.] I have already told the hon. Member for Perth and North Perthshire what our position is, so he can pipe down, quite honestly. I do not see how anyone can be satisfied with the outcomes for what would happen to the deterrent in a separate Scotland. It is highly unlikely that the situation would lead to unilateral disarmament, and it is highly likely that thousands of jobs on the west coast of Scotland would be lost. That is what the nationalists are arguing for today.

--- Later in debate ---

[Pete Wishart]

The Minister says that he is interested in multilateral disarmament, but why are the UK Government perhaps the only Government in the world who are investing in unilateral nuclear rearmament, with Trident renewal?

[Mr Robathan]

The hon. Gentleman, if I might say so, reveals a certain ignorance, as the point is that weaponry has to be kept up to date. It is rather like saying, “Could we not use a one-rupee jezail when fighting in Afghanistan?” I am afraid that those were the days of Kipling, and while the Afghans may have been very accurate, we prefer to use modern weaponry.

The UK has an excellent record in fulfilling its disarmament obligations—as the hon. Member for West Dunbartonshire (Gemma Doyle) said, in relation to the previous Government—under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, as demonstrated by the latest round of stockpile reductions that we announced in the strategic defence and security review. We probably have the smallest nuclear force of the recognised nuclear weapon states and, uniquely, the UK relies on a single platform, a single weapon system and single warhead design for the delivery of its nuclear deterrent.

However, we continue to work to create a safer and more stable world in which the UK and others can relinquish their nuclear weapons, but we are not there yet. Therefore, nuclear arsenals remain, as does the danger of further proliferation, especially in regions of instability and tension, so we believe that a nuclear deterrent is likely to remain an important element of our national security. Given the uncertainties of the international environment, it would be folly to pursue a policy of unilateral nuclear disarmament. As President Obama said in Prague in 2009, the threat of nuclear war has gone down, but the threat of nuclear attack has gone up.

The UK’s nuclear weapon capability is designed to deter and thereby prevent blackmail and acts of aggression against our vital interests that cannot be countered by other means. It also supports collective security, through NATO, for the Euro-Atlantic area. The UK Government have thus committed to maintain the strategic nuclear deterrent and to continue with the programme to renew it as debated and approved by a significant majority in Parliament in March 2007.

The Government’s policy is that the Vanguard class submarines will be replaced at the end of their lives, in the late 2020s and early 2030s, by a successor submarine, again carrying the Trident missile, subject to main gate investment approval due in 2016. The Government are committed to continuous at-sea deterrence. In times of tensions or crisis, such a posture neither escalates nor de-escalates matters and maximises political freedom of manoeuvre. A submarine-launched ballistic missile system offers invulnerability, range and endurance. All promote the credibility of that deterrent and provide the ultimate safeguard for our national security. I pay tribute to the crews of our submarines and their families, and all the men and women, both military and civilian—including at Faslane—engaged in Operation Relentless, our country’s most enduring current operation, which has been in place for nearly 45 years. I thank them—Scots, English, Irish and Welsh—for their unwavering dedication.

The UK Government’s position on the referendum on Scottish separation is clear: Scotland benefits from being part of the UK and the UK benefits from having Scotland within it. Scotland has played an indispensable role in the development and history of the multi-nation UK. As a result, the UK has developed and flourished, and its constitution, laws and institutions underpin one of the most successful partnerships of nations in history.

If the result of the referendum on Scottish separation were to lead to the current situation being challenged, other options would have to be considered. It would be an enormous challenge to reproduce the facilities that we have at Faslane elsewhere, as we have heard, and any alternative solution would come at huge cost. It is impossible to estimate how much that would be, as it would depend on many factors, including time scales and the precise scope of the facilities that might be required, but it would cost billions of pounds and take many years.

Let me now make this point about Her Majesty’s Naval Base Clyde. The hon. Member for West Dunbartonshire (Gemma Doyle) represents—[Interruption]. A constituency not far away; the hon. Member for Argyll and Bute (Mr Reid) does indeed represent Clyde itself, and Helensburgh, where I went last year. Her Majesty’s Naval Base Clyde underwent a significant investment programme to prepare it for the introduction of the Vanguard-class submarines and the Trident missile system. That programme cost in the region of £3.5 billion at today’s prices, and that built on decades of investment in the base infrastructure and associated housing.

In April 1963, the Civil Lord of the Admiralty, Ian Orr-Ewing, whom I remember and who died only about 15 years ago, informed the House that the operating base for the planned fleet of Resolution-class Polaris ballistic missile submarines needed to be near deep water, to offer easy navigational access and to be a short distance by sea from the associated armament depot. He informed the House that it had been decided that Faslane was the area that was operationally most suitable for the basing of the submarine fleet. My hon. Friend the Member for North Devon (Sir Nick Harvey) pointed out that it is a perfect site. In this varied United Kingdom, we do not have a better site.

That decision was reviewed in the early 1980s, alongside the decision to introduce the Vanguard-class submarines. It was concluded that the Clyde continued to offer the best location. Nothing has happened since to alter that conclusion. Indeed, the Clyde has been chosen as the submarine centre of specialisation, and all our submarines will be based there by the end of this decade, which brings the additional benefits to the region that have been mentioned.

We have mentioned employment at Her Majesty’s Naval Base Clyde, but I now return to that, because it is the largest employment site in Scotland. The base is a major source of employment for highly skilled workers and a significant contributor to the local economy. The rise in the number of jobs during the next decade accompanies the move to base all royal naval submarines on the Clyde to achieve economies of scale and the greater effectiveness of collocation. That symbiosis of a submarine centre of specialisation and associated contractor and base support is a matter of pride, I would have thought, for the UK, for Faslane and for Scotland.

As the collocation benefits would be required in any alternative location, there would be no question but that the entirety of the submarine enterprise on the Clyde would be relocated if the nuclear deterrent force had to move. It is for those who demand the withdrawal of the Vanguard-class submarines from Faslane to explain how the quality and quantity of employment in the region would be matched if the enterprise had to be relocated.

As the UK Government have no plans to disarm unilaterally, there would inevitably be significant time and cost implications if an independent Scottish Government demanded the withdrawal of the UK deterrent. For reasons that I have already described, the UK Government will not pre-negotiate the departure of Scotland from the UK. Therefore, scenarios mentioned in the Scottish Affairs Committee report under which the UK may negotiate a basing agreement for the deterrent with an independent Scottish Government will not be discussed before to the outcome of the referendum and, God willing, will never need to be discussed.

As was said by the hon. Member for Airdrie and Shotts (Pamela Nash), who has just left the Chamber, NATO is a nuclear alliance, and it will remain a nuclear alliance while nuclear weapons remain in existence. NATO’s “Strategic Concept” of 2010 and the “Deterrence and Defence Posture Review” adopted at the NATO summit in Chicago only in May last year make that unambiguously clear. Those documents also make this clear:

“The supreme guarantee of the security of the Allies is provided by the strategic nuclear forces of the Alliance, particularly those of the United States; the independent strategic nuclear forces of the United Kingdom and France, which have a deterrent role of their own, contribute to the overall deterrence and security of the Allies.”

The contribution made by the UK’s nuclear forces is much valued by our NATO allies, and membership of NATO comes with responsibilities. One cannot join NATO and pretend that it is not a nuclear alliance, for it is, and one cannot join NATO and reject the concept of nuclear burden sharing within the alliance.

It is clear to me that a separate Scotland would face difficult choices about its defence arrangements. That would include decisions on the role of its armed forces, what threats it intended to counter and what foreign policy it intended to support—quite a bit of work required there, then—its international relationships, including membership of NATO; the resources allocated to defence, which we have just heard about from Mr Swinney; and the future of the defence industry in Scotland.

It is indeed the case that people in Scotland need to know how the Scottish Government propose to provide for the protection and security of Scotland if it separates, God forbid, from the UK. It is the UK Government’s view that whatever choice is made, a separate Scotland would lose significant benefits in this area that are currently delivered by Scotland being part of the United Kingdom. One of those benefits is the security provided by the armed forces of the United Kingdom, including the strategic nuclear deterrent.

Our nuclear deterrent has contributed to both our security and that of our NATO allies since the 1950s, and the continuous at-sea deterrence posture has been the central feature of our deterrence since the late 1960s. As the Trident system has been our sole nuclear weapons system since 1998, our nuclear deterrence posture is now based exclusively on CASD. Although I personally am committed and we as a Government are committed to multilateral disarmament, the circumstances that would justify the relinquishing of our submarine-based deterrent do not prevail and are unlikely to do so in the foreseeable future. For that reason, I reiterate that we have no plans to move the deterrent from Her Majesty’s Naval Base Clyde, which has a bright future not only as the base for all our submarines, but as the UK’s submarine centre of specialisation.