Cost of Living

Kwasi Kwarteng Excerpts

Wednesday 27th November 2013 Commons Chamber

[Sheila Gilmore (Edinburgh East) (Lab)]

The Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission has stated that the fiscal consolidation has been regressive. Does my hon. Friend think that that should be taken into account?

[Kwasi Kwarteng (Spelthorne) (Con)]

It has worked.

[Chris Leslie]

My hon. Friend is correct. The fiscal consolidation is not only regressive but entirely the opposite of what the hon. Member for Spelthorne (Kwasi Kwarteng) shouted from a sedentary position, because it has not worked. I will be talking about him in a moment as I have given him a special place in my speech; several hon. Members will know why. The notion that fiscal consolidation has been successful is disproved by the fact that we now have an inordinate level of borrowing thanks to the lack of economic growth.

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Chris Leslie]

Of course I would love to give way to the hon. Gentleman.

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

I am very grateful to the hon. Gentleman and touched that he specially mentions me in his opening remarks. If the fiscal consolidation has not worked, why is the UK currently growing faster than any other country in the G7 and in the OECD?

[Chris Leslie]

The hon. Gentleman should be shamefaced even to mention economic growth when for the vast majority of his esteemed time as a Member of Parliament growth has flatlined and he has failed to deliver. He needs to recognise that unless we get some serious and sustained economic growth, we will never deal with the deficit issues we have in this country.

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[Chris Leslie]

I will come to the Liberal Democrats in a moment. I am talking about the Conservative party.

The Conservatives and the Prime Minister like to pretend that they understand the concerns of hard-working people. When they finally realise the strength of public opinion, they will grudgingly come up with a half-baked effort on energy bills, just as they finally caved in with a long overdue cap on payday loans. The trouble is that they just don’t get it, because their hearts aren’t in it. As with the action on payday loans and banking reform in this week alone, why does the Chancellor always have to be pushed into doing the right thing?

The forces of moderation in the Conservative party—I am looking around desperately to see them; perhaps there are a couple of them here—complain that they are seen as the party of the rich and that voters do not trust their motives. Twenty-five of the dwindling number of those anxious Conservative Members of Parliament had a meeting with the Prime Minister to express their concerns, although that was before some of them announced that they were standing down from Parliament.

The moderates—there is one opposite me—are right to worry, because the Prime Minister’s pretence that he represents the middle of British politics has finally stretched beyond belief, as time and again his true instincts shine through. In the lord mayor’s banquet speech a fortnight ago, the mask slipped as the Prime Minister proclaimed the need for permanent austerity and the shrinking of public investment in perpetuity. The true ideological intentions of the Conservatives are there for all to see. Perhaps that is why the party’s Free Enterprise Group published its plans—

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Chris Leslie]

I will give way to the hon. Gentleman because he is in the Conservative Free Market Group. He wrote the pamphlet. Will he tell us what it was about his pamphlet that hit the headlines?

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

I have no idea what the hon. Gentleman is talking about. I am very pleased and somewhat flattered that he should be referring to the Free Enterprise Group on the Floor of the House. What was the size of the deficit when his party left government in 2010? What was the absolute size of the deficit and what was the proportion of the deficit—

[Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Lindsay Hoyle)]

Order. We have got the point.

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[Kwasi Kwarteng]

With regard to the deficit, why, for nine years, and for seven years of economic growth, did the Labour Government run persistent deficits?

[Sajid Javid]

My hon. Friend makes a good point. He reminds the House that the previous Government began running a deficit from 2001, way before any financial crisis. They ran a structural deficit from 2006 onwards. Hon. Members will remember that the shadow Chancellor, the right hon. Member for Morley and Outwood (Ed Balls), tried to deny that until he was corrected by the International Monetary Fund.

Without a credible economic plan, we cannot have a plan for helping families with living standards challenges. Anyone, including the Labour party, can come up with a list of interventions, but they are completely meaningless and unsustainable if there is no long-term economic plan to back them up. Labour’s only plan is for more spending, more borrowing and more debt, which is exactly what got us into this mess in the first place.

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[Sajid Javid]

My hon. Friend makes a good point. [Hon. Members: “Answer the question!”] The Prime Minister answered it. The Government have absolutely no plans to increase VAT.

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

This proposal has been ripped out of context and completely distorted by the Daily Mirror and some of Labour’s other friends in the media. Let me be clear: this proposal was designed as a tax simplification measure that would cut the VAT rate and allow the savings to be targeted at people who really needed the money. It was a complex proposal whose details, I am afraid, got lost in the Labour spin machine.

[Sajid Javid]

My hon. Friend has made his point well, and I will not dwell on it further, in the interests of time.

We have also frozen fuel duty. Petrol is now 13p per litre lower than under Labour’s plans. Each time the average motorist fills up their car, they are saving £7 because we have refused to implement Labour’s fuel duty escalator. We are also helping local authorities to freeze council tax, and our tax-free child care plan will mean savings for parents of up to £1,200 per child.

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[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

I wish to say a little about the motion before I start my speech proper. The motion is in two parts, the first of which describes the failure of the Conservative Government—I intend to say most about that—and the second calls for action to mitigate the cost of living crisis. Although the Scottish National party does not agree with the Labour party on the precise mechanism of its fuel price freeze—we would prefer to see a cut—the principle of taking action on fuel is important in tackling the cost of living, so we will certainly be able to support this tonight.

I wish to start by discussing tax, because that clearly has as much of a bearing on people’s ability to cope with rising prices as do earnings or the prices themselves. The Government are right to try to take as many people on low and modest wages out of tax as possible. The saving of £595 a year for basic rate taxpayers through the change in the basic allowance from £6,500 in 2010 to £9,440 this year makes sense. However, a saving of £595 for basic rate taxpayers makes rather less sense when the same Government are embarked on a £40,000 tax give-away for millionaires.

The people I really want to talk about are those in the middle, who are paying some of the heaviest price for the mistakes this Government have made. These people have seen the tax relief before they pay the 40% band fall from £37,500 in 2010 to £34,700 last year and to £32,000 this year. So for every £595 saved as a result of changes to the basic rate, they have had to shell out an extra £2,000 at 40p in the pound. That does not make people better off; it exacerbates the crisis faced by people, particularly hard-working people on middle incomes. I am not talking about the very poorest and I am certainly not talking about the very wealthy; I am discussing those on genuinely middle incomes. It means that this Government have taken the number of people paying 40% tax to a whopping 4.3 million; whereas barely 5% of taxpayers did so 25 years ago, the figure has rocketed and 16% of all taxpayers now pay a 40% tax rate—even a quarter of a century ago this was a band only for the rich. They are not paying that because they are wealthier or even because the economy has come out of the austerity period. Indeed, people feel poorer because they are poorer.

Last year, the Office for Budget Responsibility changed its forecast—I think this contradicts what the Minister said—by reducing household disposable income every year from 2013 onwards in the forecast period. In the March economic and fiscal outlook, it marked down real disposable income again to be negative or zero every year until 2017. People will not simply be not wealthier but will feel the burden of higher costs and stagnating real disposable income year after year after year of this Government.

It is no surprise that households should feel poorer given that since the Government came to power inflation has constantly exceeded targets, pay has been frozen and benefits have been cut. Even the calculation of pensions, notwithstanding the much-vaunted triple lock, has changed from the retail prices index to the consumer prices index. People need to understand that the actions of this Chancellor have caused untold damage to, and put pressure on, families throughout the UK, and much of that is because, as the motion says, he has failed to meet any of the economic targets that he set himself.

When the Government came to power in 2010, they told us that the current account deficit for this year would be a mere £40 billion. This year, in the Budget, the Chancellor told that it would be £84 billion, which is more than double the original figure. In 2010, the Chancellor told us that public sector net borrowing for this year would be barely £60 billion. This year, he told us that it was £108 billion, but when we add on the fiddled stuff with the pension funds, we find that it was actually £120 billion—again, more than double the figure.

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

Is the hon. Gentleman suggesting that it would have been a better plan to borrow more money to reduce those deficits?

[Stewart Hosie]

I am suggesting that to try to remove the structural deficit and fail over a fixed time scale, taking no cognisance of external shocks, was a stupid thing to do and a daft economic and political decision, which the Government were warned about in advance. The warnings failed precisely because this Chancellor promised that national debt would peak at 85% of GDP on the treaty calculation, or at £1.162 trillion on the normal calculation. However, we were then told this year that it would not peak until 2015-16 at over 100% of GDP on the treaty calculation, or at more than £1.5 trillion on the normal calculation.

[Stewart Hosie]

I always welcome growth in the economy, but the error that the hon. Gentleman and his Government have made is that by increasing tax and cutting to the extent that they have—the ratio of cuts to tax increases is four to one—they will have sucked out of the economy by 2016-17 roughly £155 billion a year. That is the equivalent of sucking 7.5% of GDP in terms of consumption out of the economy.

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

rose—

[Stewart Hosie]

I will not give way, because we only get two minutes’ stoppage time, and I have had my two minutes.

This Government are also borrowing more and we are all paying the cost of failure. The Government’s main failure is on the fiscal rules they set themselves: that the structural current account deficit should be in balance in the final year of a future five-year programme—it will not be; and that debt should be falling as a share of GDP by the end of that period—it is not. Both objectives, were, and remain, highly dependent on GDP growth, which, as we have noted in previous Budgets, is massively dependent, at least according to the OBR, on extraordinary unmet and unmeetable levels of business investment. Let us remember that in 2010 the Government suggested, with a straight face, that business investment would have to grow between 8% and 11% a year between 2011 and 2015. By the time of the OBR fiscal outlook in November 2011, growth in business investment had turned negative again and the forecast had to be changed to show future projections of growth of up to 12%.

The Chancellor was at it again this year. Having failed to get the growth in business investment we needed, he is now suggesting growth in business investment of 8.6% in three out of the next four years. I hope that that happens, but based on the evidence we have seen so far and the inability of the banks to take their share in providing credit and liquidity to businesses, I fear that is a forlorn hope.

We have also been told—this point was mentioned earlier—that we will see the benefits to GDP growth of exports from the UK. In 2011, however, we had a deficit in trade in goods of £100 billion, which rose to £110 billion the following year. The deficit in trade in goods has been sitting at about £20 billion for every quarter of this year. The balance of goods and services was £23 billion in the red in 2011, and that figure worsened to £35 billion last year after four and a half years of depreciation in sterling. I would hope that at the very least the Government recognised that that part of the plan simply has not worked.

I hope that the Government will be less stubborn about recognising where they have failed and that their optimistic Budgets have simply collapsed into dust when faced with the stark reality of austerity economics, which strips consumption out of the economy in the way I have described.

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[Kwasi Kwarteng (Spelthorne) (Con)]

I am grateful to you, Madam Deputy Speaker, for calling me to speak in this important debate. We have had such debates on a number of occasions, but it is important that we have this one now, when the economy is growing. All the indicators from the IMF, the OECD and other estimable bodies suggest that the worst is over in the British economy and that we are encountering some sort of recovery.

More important than recovery in itself is understanding how we got into this position in the first place. The economy will be a very important issue in the next election. I was interested to hear the hon. Member for Dundee East (Stewart Hosie) criticise the Chancellor and the Government for not reducing the deficit fast enough. When I asked what his solution was to this conundrum—whether he wanted to borrow more—he failed to answer. I still do not know what his answer is; perhaps he will care to enlighten us in the course of my speech.

It is true that the UK economy has faced a difficult few years given our reliance on financial services and, more importantly, the appalling fiscal legacy of the previous Labour Government. It was insane for them to borrow money in every fiscal year from 2001, even when the economy was growing. I have never heard of an economy growing at 3% while running a deficit of 3% of GDP. Not even Lord Keynes would have advocated such a policy. Yet we lived through a period in which we had year after year of deficit even when the economy was growing.

[Alec Shelbrooke]

Does my hon. Friend share my deep concern that the most shocking thing that has emerged during this debate is that the shadow Chief Secretary does not appear to know the difference between deficit and debt?

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

That is absolutely right. I was as shocked and appalled as my hon. Friend that, when I asked the shadow Chief Secretary what the absolute level of the British deficit is—it was a very simple, general knowledge-type question—he did not seem to know. I then asked him whether he knew what the deficit-to-GDP ratio is, but he flannelled away that supplementary question and did not even pay me the courtesy of answering it.

We have to look very carefully at the legacy of the previous Labour Government, because it has a direct impact on living costs and this cost of living debate. People in Britain—people in my constituency and, I am sure, in other constituencies across the country—intuitively understand that after a period of excessive spending in which, to borrow a metaphor, the national credit card went way beyond its limit, it is necessary to have a period in which spending is reduced. Nearly everyone understands that and, as a consequence, any poll that Members may care to look at shows that the Government and coalition parties have a considerably better rating on the issue than that of the Labour party.

[Stephen Doughty]

What do the polls say about the attitude of the hon. Gentleman’s constituents to his proposals to put VAT at 15% on children’s clothes and food?

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

I have mentioned my specific proposal and not the Mickey Mouse, cartoon version offered by the Daily Mirror. [Interruption.] I am not sure which rag it was, but I will not return to that point.

The cost of living debate cannot be conducted without reference to the actual economic conditions or the economic legacy of the previous Government. It is a sleight of hand—I admire Labour’s political skill in that regard—and dishonest not to recognise that the cost of living debate cannot be conducted without reference to the economy. It is also not very open handed or reasonable to suggest that the previous Government’s legacy and appalling record have nothing to do with the difficulties that families up and down this country face.

[Ian Paisley]

On the cost of living, does the hon. Gentleman accept that the further north we travel in this great nation of ours, the bigger the burden of debt and cost on individuals in society? Over the past four years in Northern Ireland, everything—from utility bills to transport costs—is up 30% and more for the average household. That is a dire burden on the community.

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

People in this country understand that any Government who came in after the 2010 election, amid the appalling wreckage of the economy bequeathed to us by the previous Government, would face a difficult proposition and have a difficult time. In fact, the previous Chancellor of the Exchequer, the right hon. Member for Edinburgh South West (Mr Darling), outlined a plan—the newspapers dubbed it the Darling plan—that advocated spending cuts and a 22% rate of VAT. As Members will know, I advocated a much lower rate. The Darling plan was an adult, mature recognition of the appalling legacies that his Government had given us. It recognised that we needed to reduce spending and that what was then dubbed austerity was absolutely necessary for this country’s financial future.

Despite Labour’s worst predictions, the Government’s plan is now beginning to work. We have not heard anything about plan B for several months. We have not heard anyone say, “Too far, too fast.” One esteemed Labour economist said that unemployment would hit 5 million, but none of those dire predictions actually happened. Labour persists, however, in peddling the socialist, never-never land idea that borrowing more money will somehow reduce the deficit. That is absolutely insane. I understand why the hon. Member for Newcastle upon Tyne North (Catherine McKinnell) is banging her head as a symbol of her frustration, because some of her colleagues’ ideas are remarkably foolish.

[Stewart Hosie]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

No, I will not. I tried to intervene on the hon. Gentleman, but he quite rightly wanted to use his full allocation of time.

What do the Opposition actually propose? They have no plans on the economy. Their economic credibility is severely questioned by the British public. All their prophecies and predictions have proved to be completely false. They are now left with the notion that the Government have somehow failed and that the very difficult time through which we have passed is a direct consequence of Government policies, when it has in fact been the direct consequence of the Government trying to get us out of the mess bequeathed by the Opposition.

Let us look at the Darling plan. When the Labour Chancellor was in government, he said that spending would have to be reduced, which is exactly what this Government have done and achieved. As I have mentioned, under the Darling plan the VAT rate would have been 22%. It is lower than that, so we have managed to achieve a degree of fiscal consolidation without some of the punitive tax rates suggested by the right hon. Member for Edinburgh South West.

All of this debate has a direct bearing on living standards and the difficulties that people are facing. Once again, under difficult fiscal constraints, this Government have managed to lift hundreds of thousands of people out of tax altogether. They have raised the personal allowance, which is a significant achievement in a time of relative austerity when we have not had the largesse that the previous Government enjoyed and abused. It is absolutely to the Government’s credit that we have managed to raise the personal allowance—taking people out of tax—which has alleviated living conditions and made them slightly easier for many of the poorest in this country.

Before I finish, I want to mention some of the gimmicks and wheezes that the Labour party has offered as serious policies. Government give-aways will still have to be paid for by the taxpayer. It is madness to try to freeze energy prices. Anyone who has looked at the economic history of this country knows that the price and wage controls of the 1960s and 1970s completely failed. We have abandoned such policies. Opposition Members will remember that beer duty was frozen in the 1960s for two years, and in the third year the price of beer went up by 41%. That is no way to conduct an economic policy.

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[Catherine McKinnell]

There are some inconvenient truths for Government Members. Personal debt has increased on their watch by 33% in my constituency and by a significant number in the hon. Gentleman’s constituency.

Hon. Members are keen to refer to the previous Government’s borrowing figures. As of last week, the coalition Government have borrowed more in three years than the Labour Government did in 13 years of government—that is the reality. On every economic test, and on the test the Prime Minister and the Chancellor set for themselves, they have failed palpably. It is clear from the many contributions to the debate that the recovery, which appears to be taking place, has yet to touch the lives of millions of people, contrary to the impression given by Government Members. My concern is that things will get a whole lot worse before people see any signs of them getting better.

Any economic recovery needs to deliver rising standards for all, not just for the Prime Minister, the Chancellor and their friends at the top. We need a recovery that is balanced and built to last. Critically, it needs to benefit every corner and community in the country. Instead, the Government, and the Government Members who support them, continue to bury their heads in the sand. They remain oblivious to the living crisis experienced by millions of families, or, worse, they deny what they hear and see with their own eyes. It is the same old Tory party, aided and abetted by the Liberal Democrats. They are totally out of touch with the reality of life for so many in Britain today who find themselves increasingly out of pocket and increasingly in debt.

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

I will ask the hon. Lady the same question I asked her colleague, the hon. Member for Nottingham East (Chris Leslie). What was the absolute level of the deficit in 2010 when this Government took over?

[Catherine McKinnell]

The hon. Gentleman is obsessed with statistics and keen to detract from the truth, which is that it is this Government who are borrowing £200 billion more than they planned. They have failed to reduce the deficit in the past three years to even a fraction of what they promised back in 2010. It is his Government’s plans that have failed. He should wake up to that fact.

I go back to the people who are paying the price. There is the single dad in my constituency who, to pay for the bedroom tax for the room he keeps for his children to stay in, eats barely anything all week and saves the money to buy food for his children at the weekend. The Chancellor would probably call that thrift. There is the GP and his staff who hand out, from their own pockets, the money for patients to get the bus to the local food bank. The Prime Minister would probably call that the big society in action. There is the branch of a well-known bank on the outskirts of Newcastle, where 80% of customers have only the most basic bank account. It has young mums coming in on a daily basis in tears because they cannot manage to feed their children and heat their homes. Citizens advice bureaux across the country saw a 78% increase in the number of people inquiring about food banks between February and June this year alone—little wonder, when gas and electricity bills have risen by an average of £300 a year on the Prime Minister’s watch. Households are spending 12% more on food bills than they were in 2007, despite purchasing 4.2% less food, as my hon. Friend the Member for Inverclyde (Mr McKenzie) pointed out.