Oral Answers to Questions
Gavin Shuker Excerpts(11 years, 2 months ago)
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Yvonne Fovargue (Makerfield) (Lab)
3. What recent estimate he has made of the effect of fiscal policy on the level of child poverty.
Gavin Shuker (Luton South) (Lab/Co-op)
9. What recent estimate he has made of the effect of fiscal policy on the level of child poverty.
Lilian Greenwood (Nottingham South) (Lab)
11. What recent estimate he has made of the effect of fiscal policy on the level of child poverty.
Sajid Javid
The hon. Lady did a lot of good work with Citizens Advice before she came to this House, so I think she shares with me a genuine interest in child poverty. If that is the case, she will recognise that the existing measure for child poverty is flawed. It is based on relative incomes and it produces perverse results. For example, according to that measure, during the previous recession—Labour’s recession, the deepest in our post-war history—child poverty fell by 300,000. The hon. Lady knows that that cannot be right, so if she wants to work with me to help develop a measure that actually works, I would welcome that.
Gavin Shuker
Despite the Minister’s divisive rhetoric about benefits, two thirds of all children living in poverty have one or more parents in work, not out of work. Does he not accept that his inaction on prices and wages is not just hammering those young people but hammering the rest of us as well?
Sajid Javid
Work remains the best and the most immediate way out of poverty. The hon. Gentleman will be concerned that his constituency saw a 72% rise in unemployment during Labour’s last term in office. It has now fallen under this Government. He is rightly concerned about workless households, so he should welcome the fact that the number of children living in workless households is at an all-time low—the lowest since records began in 1996.
Co-operatives
Gavin Shuker Excerpts(11 years, 4 months ago)
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Andy Sawford (Corby) (Lab/Co-op)
It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Mr Hollobone, as you are my near neighbour. I congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for Islwyn (Chris Evans) on securing this important debate and on opening it in such great style. He covered a broad range of issues relating to how the co-operative movement benefits our economy.
Hon. Members have made many claims regarding the strong co-operative traditions of their constituencies, and I do not dispute the fact that Rochdale is the home of the co-operative movement. I can say, however, that my constituency, with its previous boundaries—you, Mr Hollobone, will understand this, because the Kettering and Corby constituencies were combined at that time—elected the first ever Co-operative MP. Alf Waterson was elected in 1918. Samuel Perry, the father of the tennis legend Fred Perry, was subsequently elected to be the Co-operative MP several times. Samuel Perry was a key mover in joining the forces of the Labour and co-operative movements around the UK.
The driving forces behind the radicalism of people in my constituency, in electing the first Co-operative MP, were the chapels, the boot and shoe workers and, in particular, the blast furnace men’s union at Corby, which adopted Alf Waterson as its candidate. The political movement was connected to an economic movement at the time, as ordinary working people in Northamptonshire came together through co-operatives to try to make a better life for themselves. Their values still hold true today in the co-operative movement—values of self-help, self-responsibility, democracy, equality, equity and solidarity.
In the tradition of the founders of the co-operative movement, co-operative members today—and I am one, and should declare an interest on that account, and as a Labour and Co-operative MP—believe in the ethical values of honesty, openness, social responsibility and caring for others. The co-operative principles are guidelines by which all co-operatives today put their values into practice. Those seven principles are voluntary and open membership; democratic member control; member economic participation, empowering those members; autonomy and independence; education, training and information; co-operation between co-operatives; and concern for community.
There are many benefits to the way in which co-operatives put their values into practice today, in addition to what we might see as core economic benefits. There are thousands of community initiatives around the country, including some in my area. The co-operative movement in the UK has been a leading force for sustainability. There is a significant focus in the Co-operative retail group at the moment on reducing waste. The movement has been a leading force in promoting fair trade in Britain, and I am pleased to say that fair trade sales in co-operatives are rising year on year. Indeed, the Co-operative helps us to celebrate Fairtrade fortnight across the UK.
The co-operative movement has championed staff volunteering. Co-operatives UK, which is one part of the movement in the UK, estimates that the staff time it donates each year is worth about £1.7 million. There are programmes such as the Skills4Schools campaign, which helps to promote numeracy in primary schools and financial literacy in secondary schools. The initiative Farm to Work has led to thousands of primary schoolchildren visiting co-operatives at working farms. There are many ways in which the values of education, training and information are still at the heart of the co-operative movement. Co-operatives are engaged in the education system not only through Skills4Schools but in many other ways. I am pleased with the increase in the number of schools opting to become co-operative trust schools and co-operative academies.
Today’s focus is, rightly, as we seek to get the economy growing again, on the economic benefits of co-operatives. The number of entrepreneurs, employers and communities in the UK that own and control their businesses through co-operative enterprise has reached an all-time high, with a record 15.4 million membership of co-operatives. That is an increase of 36% since 2008 and 13.6% in the past year. The number of co-operative businesses in the UK has also risen by 28% since 2008 or the onset of the recession. The recent report published by Co-operatives UK, entitled “Homegrown: The Co-operative Economy 2013”, shows that co-operatives have a £37 billion turnover in the UK economy.
We might wonder why co-operatives have grown, at a time when little seems to be growing in this country. I think that it is because of the tough economic trading conditions, which have encouraged more and more Britons to turn to co-operatives to take greater control of their destinies and grow their own way out of recession. The Co-operatives UK report highlights the fact that co-operative shops had a combined turnover of £50 million in 2012, with more than 50,000 members. Those who have chosen the co-operative option, who are growing their own co-operative enterprises, include entrepreneurs, employers who share ownership of their firms, communities, customers and even sports fans, as my hon. Friend the Member for Rutherglen and Hamilton West (Tom Greatrex) highlighted, who want to own and run their clubs. The growing appeal of sharing ownership, profits and control in line with the traditional values—democratic member control, voluntary and open membership, and autonomy and independence—has, in a diverse co-operative economy, brought about community pubs, foster care and child care providers, and multi-million pound co-operatives such as Co-operative Energy. In the energy setting, in addition to Co-operative Energy, we want many more mutual, local community co-operatives. That is why I support the strong points that my hon. Friends have made about amendments to the Energy Bill. I hope that the Government will now see sense on that matter, as I understand amendments have been made in the Lords.
People are taking action to form co-operatives because they want a say in what matters to them. In a time of limited economic growth and social challenges, people’s appetite is to seek independent control, to run a fair organisation that benefits all, and to put increasing importance on planning for the long term.
The recent study of the effect of co-operatives on local economies carried out by the independent economic analyst K2A showed that money spent by customers increases in value as it goes to local suppliers, to customers as a dividend, and to employees in wages; they in turn spend a proportion of their money locally. The estimates, using the benchmarks that are accepted around the world for examining the value of business in local economies, are that co-operatives generate an additional £40 for the local economy for every £100 spent by a customer. Overall, that means that co-operatives, rather than generating profits for outside investors or national or even global suppliers, generate £100 million for local economies.
Gavin Shuker (Luton South) (Lab/Co-op)
Does my hon. Friend agree that the impact of co-operatives in the economy is felt not only locally but in tax revenues to the Exchequer, which pay for public services? To cite a simple example, there has been concern about the levels of tax paid by some water companies. In comparison, Welsh Water is a co-operative that does extremely well on that front and on environmental sustainability.
Andy Sawford
My hon. Friend is right to highlight the importance of Exchequer receipts from co-operatives, not only through business rates and other forms of taxation paid by those businesses, but also because co-operatives in the UK employ so many people who are economically active and who contribute to tax returns. That is one of the benefits of co-operatives, and I am pleased that my hon. Friend brought it up.
As for local co-operatives, the secretary-general of Co-operatives UK describes the effect of keeping so much money in the local economy, and generating additional value there, with the term “sticky money”. Co-operative money is sticky money: I think it is a good term. He says:
“It stays local, because co-operatives employ local people, are owned by local people and try to source from local firms that do the same. Every pound spent in a co-operative shop is a real boost to the local economy.”
Co-operatives are known as trusted local businesses. Indeed, my hon. Friend the Member for Islwyn has told the Chamber about his experience of that. I share that experience of growing up, and the values that can be seen in co-operatives. Today, the value that they offer to communities is incredibly important.
In my community, the main co-operative is the Midlands Co-operative. It is one of the largest independent retail co-operative societies in the UK. It employs 7,000 staff, is member-owned and has a board of directors, one of whom—I should declare an interest—is my father. It had gross sales of £670 million and a profit of £24.3 million in 2012-13. It operates across a wide range of sectors—food, funeral services, crematoriums, transport—and has more than 300 trading outlets in 12 counties. I want to highlight its achievements.
The Midlands Co-operative Society was recognised as co-operative of the year, which I am sure you welcome, Mr Hollobone, as you must shop, as I do, in a Midlands Co-op in your constituency. It has the highest trading profit of all independent co-operatives, and it rewarded its members with a £4.3 million payout; it created 300 additional jobs in its trading area; it invested more than £0.5 million to help its employees develop their skills; it funded local community projects to the tune of £1.5 million; and it has refurbished many of its outlets to make them energy-efficient, reducing energy consumption.
All the Midlands Co-op stores have a locally sourced range—I have already referred to the initiative to take primary school children to the co-operative’s working farms—and the supply chain benefit of sourcing locally from firms that are less than 50 miles away is incredibly important. In my area, and yours, Mr Hollobone, the supply chain benefit is known as a “Taste of Northamptonshire”. The Midlands Co-op helps vital community initiatives, so I was pleased to support the Corby women’s choir recently at a great local event, and I welcome the news that the co-operative is backing grass-roots football in Thrapston in east Northamptonshire. The benefits are enormous.
I want to say a few words in support of the comments made by my hon. Friends about co-operative housing. I was pleased to hear David Rodgers mentioned in his role in the International Co-operative Alliance, but I have known him for some years as the former chief executive of the Co-operative Development Society, which I think would lay claim to being the largest co-operative housing organisation in Britain—we can have that debate with my hon. Friend the Member for Rochdale (Simon Danczuk) another time—not only for owning many thousands of units of housing directly, but for supporting co-operative housing organisations throughout the UK. The CDS has been a pioneer in introducing new models of intermediate market housing—desperately needed in this country—by looking at examples in north America, especially Vermont, where co-operative housing makes a huge contribution to the housing supply and in particular to intermediate market housing, but also in northern Europe. In cities such as Oslo in Norway, more than half the housing in the city is co-operative housing.
We need to look at the real potential offered by co-operative housing models in this country. In particular, we could link co-operative and mutual models with community land trusts—for rural as well as urban areas—to engage communities in bringing forward significant new developments. Community land trusts offer real potential to capture land values—for example, exception sites can be made community land trusts—and that is something we ought to look at. Using the mutual models, benefits such as corporate mortgages and so on can reduce the cost to people of purchasing their own home. In particular, under flexible models of share ownership, people can buy equity shares in the overall housing trust, which they take on with an element of housing equity growth, if that happens over the time that they are in the housing. That is much better and more flexible for people than traditional ways of getting a foot on the housing ladder or a stake in the housing market.
The community mutual model, as developed in particular by organisations such as Mutuo, has been taken up in Wales. There are community mutuals in Rhondda, in Torfaen and elsewhere in Wales, but I want to see more in England. I also want to see more community gateway models in England, such as those developed by the Confederation of Co-operative Housing; community gateway housing mutuals exist in Preston, Watford, Lewisham and Braintree. On hybrid mutual schemes, Rochdale Boroughwide Housing, which has 14,000 units—I understand why my hon. Friend the Member for Rochdale says that it is an incredibly large and important co-operative—is using an innovative new membership-based model of housing provision.
Those are real opportunities, but I hope that the Government will look at some of the legislative opportunities that might be available in the next few years, including the important Bill to support co-operative housing introduced by my hon. Friend the Member for Stalybridge and Hyde (Jonathan Reynolds), to better support the development of co-operative models in the UK economy. Co-operatives can provide enormous benefit and could prove to be as strong in this century as they were in the last.
Budget Resolutions and Economic Situation
Gavin Shuker Excerpts(11 years, 8 months ago)
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Gavin Shuker (Luton South) (Lab/Co-op)
I am extremely grateful not only to have been called to speak, but to follow the hon. Member for Bedford (Richard Fuller), because I intend to use his speech as a launchpad for my own. I have a great deal of sympathy with much of what he said. In particular, I agree with him that the rising level of private sector debt in the economy is worrying—much more worrying than the rising level of public sector debt during the earlier period to which he referred.
However, the most important question for the House to answer is this. Given that members of all parties know there is a massive problem in our economy—the mountain of debt that is at this moment being added to our existing national debt—why do Ministers refuse to face up to it?
Where would we have been, had the OBR’s initial assessment been correct? By this point in the present Parliament, our economy would have grown by 5% or 6%, there would have been a solid and recognisable recovery, and further scope for a reduction in public spending as the deficit went down. Instead, we have seen growth of between 0% and 1%, and we know that, in this first quarter of 2013, we are a margin of error away from a triple-dip recession—let alone the double-dip recession that has already happened. There is clearly a lack of confidence, not just consumer confidence but confidence among businesses and elsewhere, preventing investment and the securing of the growth we need.
The result of all this—the result of the halving of growth in the most recent Budget assessment, and of the Chancellor’s having not only to downgrade his own assessments of growth but to upgrade the amount he will have to borrow every time he comes to the Dispatch Box—is quite simple. We are adding an incredible amount of debt to the economy, and the Government are giving no clear indication of what they are going to do. The pain experienced by my constituents, and by many of our constituents throughout the country, can be tempered only by a sense that we are getting somewhere in sorting out the problem that has been created.
However, the sad assessment is that we have wasted three years in getting there. The debt has continued to rise. When Government Members say, “We are paying down Britain’s debts”, either they are being ignorant of the facts or something more sinister is going on. No debt has been paid down by this Government. In their five years, this Government will have borrowed more than was borrowed during the 13 years of the previous Labour Government, and that was true even before yesterday’s horror-show figures. We know that at the end of this Parliament the deficit will still be in the tens of billions of pounds; I believe the figure will be £70 billion in the final year of this Parliament. We know that last year, this year and next year the deficit remains, in essence, unchanged, at about £120 billion.
Many of us choose not to talk about this next issue. Many Government Members would say privately that they are deeply concerned about the Government’s economic strategy, but they will not talk about it in this Chamber. The shocking thing is the effect that is having on the general public’s perception of what is going on in the real economy. All the polling shows us that only about one in 10 people understands that the debt is going up, rather than going down or remaining the same. The public believe, by and large, that these cuts are productive. They confuse—possibly because the Government themselves have confused—the debt and the deficit, but, believe it or not, this Government will borrow more in their period in office than the previous Labour Government did in 13 years. We need to call them out on that as clearly as we can.
For a plan to work, it needs to be credible. What do I mean by that? First, a proper plan is needed. This Government said that they had one—Labour had one going into the last election. Secondly, the belief is needed that the Government will see it through. This Government say they will see it through, even though they are clearly not keeping to the plan. We believe that the best way to make a credible case for seeing it through would be an Act of Parliament stating that the deficit will be halved in four years. The third test of a credible plan is: does it work? I ask in the simplest way I can: on what measure is the Chancellor’s economic plan working? The answer is none whatsoever, and that presents real challenges to our constituents and to our country.
Economic Policy
Gavin Shuker Excerpts(11 years, 9 months ago)
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Urgent Questions are proposed each morning by backbench MPs, and up to two may be selected each day by the Speaker. Chosen Urgent Questions are announced 30 minutes before Parliament sits each day.
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Mr Osborne
I agree with my right hon. Friend. RBS is now pursuing a policy of becoming a much more UK-focused bank than it was under the strategy we inherited. We are absolutely clear that it should not be in the universal banking business on the scale that it has been and that the investment bank should be supporting its corporate and retail business in the UK, and it has made important steps in that direction.
Gavin Shuker (Luton South) (Lab/Co-op)
Will the Chancellor confirm that in the five years of this Tory-led Government he will borrow more than the previous Labour Government borrowed in 13 years?
Mr Osborne
Let me explain something to the hon. Gentleman. We inherited a 12% budget deficit, and the deficit is defined as the amount added to the debt every year. We are getting the deficit down in order to deal with the debt problem. His plan is to increase the deficit deliberately, borrow even more, add to the debt burden and repeat all the mistakes made by his colleagues when they were in charge.
The Economy
Gavin Shuker Excerpts(11 years, 11 months ago)
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Danny Alexander
I want to make some progress first. I know that many Members want to speak and there is already a time limit on speeches.
The forecasts are those of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility, and I do not think that the Labour party’s trend of attacking it is welcome.
Gavin Shuker
Will the Minister confirm that, under any measure, this Conservative-led Government will borrow more in the five years of this Parliament than Labour did in 13 years?
Danny Alexander
It is transparent from the figures presented by the Office for Budget Responsibility that borrowing is higher than it forecast in 2010. If the hon. Gentleman was being fair-minded, he would also draw the House’s attention to the analysis by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, which suggests that if we had continued with the path of spending set out by the previous Chancellor, we would be borrowing a further £200 billion —something that the country can ill afford.
Rachel Reeves
There is £212 billion more borrowing under this Government’s plans.
Families will continue to feel the Chancellor’s failure in their wallets and their homes. Average earnings will not outpace inflation until the second quarter of 2014. It will take even longer for families to recover the loss to their living standards that this Government’s economic failure has cost them.
The lack of growth and the increase in borrowing under this Chancellor have meant that he has had to come back and ask the country for more. And who are the Government asking to bear the brunt of the past two and a half years of failure? Luckily, Andrew Neil asked the Chief Secretary to the Treasury that question on BBC1 last Wednesday. He asked him whether
“those who are on ordinary incomes are suffering a lot more than most”.
The Chief Secretary to the Treasury replied: “That is absolutely right.” That was the only sense he spoke all day. It is no surprise that he is increasingly described as the Conservatives’ favourite Liberal Democrat in the Cabinet. Apparently, they regard him as easier to deal with and more persuadable. The Chancellor’s favourite Liberal Democrat has finally told the country what we have known for a long time: that this Government are asking ordinary families to foot the bill for their economic mess.
The facts speak for themselves. Analysis by the House of Commons Library shows that a one-earner family on £20,000 with two children will lose £279 a year from next April. Slide 24 of the Institute for Fiscal Studies report shows that a two-income family with children will lose £534 as a result of the changes, including all the measures in the autumn statement. Slide 17 of the IFS assessment shows that middle and lower earners will lose most as a result of the autumn statement, with the poorest 40% losing more than the richest 10%. How can that be fair? And this is all to pay for the Government’s £212 billion of extra borrowing. They are hurting those who are trying to get on and do the best for themselves and their families. That cannot be fair.
Mothers across the country will be worried about the real-terms cut in maternity pay, worth £180, that the Chancellor announced last Wednesday. That comes on top of other deep cuts that will hit pregnant women on low incomes, such as the abolished Sure Start maternity allowance and the health in pregnancy grant. This is further proof that the Government are out of touch and simply do not understand the pressures families are facing, day in, day out.
Gavin Shuker
What assessment has my hon. Friend made of the impact of the changes, particularly those relating to people on low incomes, on the overall growth of the economy? It strikes me that they are exactly the people we ought to be encouraging to spend right now.
Rachel Reeves
My hon. Friend is right. It is a false economy to cut the incomes of the lowest paid, because they will have less money to spend in their communities. What really matters, however, is the real impact that the changes will have on their living standards and those of their children.
The Resolution Foundation has said that 60% of the cuts to benefits and tax credits will hit working households—that is, those who are trying to get on in life. Given that the welfare bill is forecast to be £13.6 billion higher in this Parliament than the Chancellor thought it would be—another target tossed aside—perhaps it is time for the Government to concentrate on getting people back to work in order to reduce the welfare bill. In February this year, the former employment Minister, now the Secretary of State for Justice, said:
“The Work Programme is doing a good job and is on track. It is helping long-term unemployed people into work.”
And only today the Chief Secretary to the Treasury said that the scheme was going well, but we now know that for every 100 people who are unemployed, the programme has seen only two people back into work. If that is the Government’s idea of a programme that is on track, I would hate to see one that is not.
It is not surprising that OBR documents released last week showed that the number of people claiming jobseeker’s allowance was set to rise from 1.58 million this year to 1.69 million in 2014, and that the number forecast for 2016 had been revised up by 340,000. That will be a third of a million more people receiving JSA compared with the number forecast in March this year.
Let us not forget that the Prime Minister dismissed the last Labour Government’s future jobs fund, which helped 120,000 young people back into work, yet an impact analysis for the Department for Work and Pensions found that we all gained £7,750 per participant through wages, increased tax receipts and reduced benefit payments. This Government ditched a plan that worked for one that has failed, so we will not be lectured by them on welfare or on job creation.
At the same time, one group of people continue to gain from the Chancellor and the Chief Secretary’s policies. If someone earns more than £1 million a year, next year they will receive an average tax cut worth £107,000. It beggars belief that while taking from families on low incomes with one hand, the Chancellor gives to millionaires with the other—there is one rule for the very richest, another for everyone else.
Oral Answers to Questions
Gavin Shuker Excerpts(12 years ago)
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Greg Clark
It is in everyone’s interest to support the path we have embarked on to pay down the deficit. We know that the confidence in the UK economy, which has led to record low interest rates, depends on credibility—a credibility that the policies of the Opposition, by borrowing more, would jeopardise.
Gavin Shuker (Luton South) (Lab/Co-op)
7. What recent assessment he has made of the effect of the Government’s fiscal policies on the level of long-term unemployment.
Rushanara Ali (Bethnal Green and Bow) (Lab)
9. What recent assessment he has made of the effect of the Government’s fiscal policies on the level of long-term youth unemployment.
The Economic Secretary to the Treasury (Sajid Javid)
The UK labour market is showing some signs of recovery. There are more people in work now than ever before, and youth unemployment is at its lowest since 2011. The Youth Contract was launched in April to support up to 500,000 young people into employment, and the Work programme has been under way since 2011.
Gavin Shuker
In my constituency, long-term youth unemployment is not up by 11% or 110%, but by 1,150%. Will the Government now apologise for their complacent decision to scrap the future jobs fund?
Sajid Javid
I think it is the hon. Gentleman who should be apologising. He is probably having a hard time explaining to his constituents why the number of young people on jobseeker’s allowance in the last five years of the previous Government went up by 45%. I have some good news for him, however. Under this Government, that number is down, and under this Government the number of vacancies in his local jobcentres is up by 30%.
Multiannual Financial Framework
Gavin Shuker Excerpts(12 years ago)
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Chris Leslie
I have a lot of respect for the hon. Lady and she made a calm and persuasive point. The difficulty is that the Prime Minister has not been calm in these negotiations; indeed, he has deployed the veto almost three weeks before negotiations have even started. It is important to have a consistent and calm strategy, and the window of opportunity must surely be to persuade nations across the EU that their taxpayers also want a spending reduction in real terms. If the Prime Minister ends up at the November summit writing a cheque for hundreds of millions of pounds more, he will surely send an unpalatable message to millions of hard-pressed taxpayers across the country.
Gavin Shuker (Luton South) (Lab/Co-op)
Despite his youthful appearance, my hon. Friend has been in this House for many years longer I have. Perhaps he will explain to me why, although the Minister said that the stated ambition of his Government is to reduce the EU budget, Government Members who vote for that lose their positions.
Chris Leslie
The new Chief Whip will have his own strategy for twisting arms and using his powers of persuasion. The amendment is straightforward and similar to the position the Opposition took in July—[Interruption.] I hear what the junior Whip, the hon. Member for Chelsea and Fulham (Greg Hands), says about our position. It would be perverse for Government Members to walk through the Lobby to vote against the position the Minister proclaims he holds—but strange things happen in the House.
Section 5 of the European Communities (Amendment) Act 1993
Gavin Shuker Excerpts(12 years, 7 months ago)
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Chris Leslie
Of course, that is because of the Government’s record of high unemployment, with statistics showing not much improvement, an increase in welfare costs and so forth. All those things are a drag on public expenditure; they are making things no better. That is the result of the Government’s misguided strategy. On the wider issue of employment and unemployment, I challenge hon. Members to find much in the Red Book that provides an assessment of what is going to happen to them. We know that we have the highest unemployment in 17 years, with 2.67 million people on the dole. We know the story that long-term unemployment doubled in the last year and that youth unemployment is at a record high. My hon. Friends do not need me to repeat these figures.
On inflation, the Red Book says that
“inflationary pressures, which the OBR considers to have been the main drag on UK growth over the past 18 months, have started to abate, easing the pressures on household incomes and improving the outlook for consumers.”
Well, consumer prices index inflation rose, I think, in the last month. We are at around 3.25%. We should not forget that the Chancellor’s target for the Governor of the Bank of England is 2% inflation. Indeed, Paul Tucker, the deputy governor of the Bank of England, warned this week that inflation is likely to stay above 3% for much of 2012. Again, even on inflation, the Government’s assessment of the economy is just not correct. There is no mention of consumer confidence in the analysis. Although there is a section on “Investment and confidence” on page 14, it does not mention consumer confidence at all. The consumer confidence indices have been down and are worsening at minus 31%.
Gavin Shuker (Luton South) (Lab/Co-op)
My hon. Friend talks about confidence. Did he see the comments of Barney Frank, a leading US congressman, when he talked yesterday about this Government’s obsession with austerity measures, which went right to the heart of the credibility of whether or not they could reduce the deficit? Coming from Washington as he did, he was clear that this Government’s key measure for reducing the deficit in their period of office was counter-productive.
Chris Leslie
Indeed. All across the globe, developed countries are realising that a strategy focused singularly on austerity alone will not be the solution. We must have a greater focus on growth and job creation as a way of generating revenues.
I have spoken for too long. Labour Members believe that this motion is flawed because the Government’s assessment of the economy is poor. Others will have their own reasons for voting against it. I want to hear the Minister’s justification for the motion and to find out why it would be cataclysmic if it did not go through. The consequences of that are a key point. As I see it, the Government misunderstand the economy, they are misreading the growth prospects of the UK and they are misconstruing what is happening in the employment markets and business investment. I therefore urge the House to reject this mistaken assessment of the prospects for our economy.
Mr Redwood
So far the strategy has generated quite a lot of new private sector jobs, which is very welcome, but it is obvious that it needs to generate many, many more over the next three years if it is to secure the savings on welfare benefits that I am sure all Members wish to see.
It is nonsensical for Opposition Members to say that the poor will be paying the taxes. We have just seen a big increase in thresholds which takes many people out of income tax altogether at the lower end of the income scale. Moreover, if the hon. Gentleman looks at the Red Book, he will see that there will be a sharp acceleration in self-assessment income tax—the income tax that is paid mainly by the rich—once we get the rate down. I know that Opposition Members do not like reading the figures in the Red Book, but it provides a much better case than Ministers ever provide for why we need to get back closer to Labour’s rates of income tax.
One of the things that I most admired about the former Prime Minister and last Chancellor of the Exchequer but one was his insistence that 40% was the highest rate of income tax that could be charged to optimise the amount of money obtained from the rich. He stuck to that view throughout his time as Chancellor and most of his time as Prime Minister. We all know that he only put it in as a political trap at the end of his period in office when he could see the writing on the wall, but it is obvious from the Red Book figures that he was right: 40% is about as high as we can go to optimise the revenue.
According to the forecast in the Red Book, the revenue will stream in after the rate falls to 45p. If Opposition Members look at the Red Book, they will see that last year, under the 50p regime, self-assessment income tax fell by an amazing 9%. That was because rich people who have a lot of freedom and ability to decide how much to pay themselves—I know that Opposition Members do not like that, but it happens to be the state of play—decided to pay themselves a great deal less. Both the outgoing and the incoming Governments had said that the tax was temporary, so they decided that they would hold back their income. It was obvious that they would do that.
Gavin Shuker
The right hon. Gentleman is talking like a cheerleader about the Laffer curve. Why does he think that the UK economy is not growing?
Mr Redwood
I think that the UK economy may be growing. We will know the facts tomorrow, when we see the first quarter figures, but I suspect that the economy will grow this year. I accept the Government’s forecast of a slow and modest rate of growth. Why, though, is the economy not growing more quickly? There are two main reasons.
The first reason is banking. All the cash that the Bank of England is printing is not going into circulation in the private sector. It is very helpful to keep the Government’s rate of interest down, and it is very helpful to make the increase in public spending more affordable because it controls the interest rate cost for the Government; but the money cannot enter the private sector in any real quantity because the banks are under a huge regulatory cosh to hold more cash and capital at what is, in my view, the wrong stage in the cycle, which means that we cannot secure the growth in banking credit that would finance a better recovery.
The second reason is that taxation is now very high overall in the United Kingdom, which—combined with the inflation tax that has resulted from the high inflation rate that we inherited, which has remained persistently high—means that real incomes are being badly squeezed. It is plain to us all that real incomes started the squeeze under Labour, when the recession really hit, and that that squeeze has continued. A progressive squeeze on the scale that we have experienced since 2008 hits demand and makes recovery that much more difficult.
Budget Resolutions and Economic Situation
Gavin Shuker Excerpts(12 years, 8 months ago)
Commons ChamberRead Full debate Read Hansard Text Read Debate Ministerial Extracts
Phil Wilson
As I have said, I think that it is ideologically driven. The facts of the matter have been thought through, so my hon. Friend is quite right.
The previous Government turned their back on the wholesale devolution of pay determination at local level in 2003. A Treasury guidance note published in the autumn of 2003 stated:
“At the extreme, local pay in theory could mean devolved pay...to local bodies. In practice, extremely devolved arrangements are not desirable. There are risks of workers being treated differently for no good reason. There could be dangers of leapfrogging and parts of the public sector competing against each other for the best staff.”
Gavin Shuker
Does my hon. Friend also agree that one of the risks of this approach is that it will have a further deflationary effect in areas where money being spent in the local economy is vital to ensuring proper growth?
Richard Fuller
That is a good question, which the hon. Gentleman should address to the Chancellor. I was not in Parliament at that time and I am not sure that that is what I would have said.
Much has been said about the granny tax. The one thing that grandparents want is what is best for their grandchildren. They understand that in tough times—this is because many of them have been through tough times—they have to give something to ensure that we will be stronger in future. That is what this Budget will deliver, and it is part of getting our economy balanced and back on the right track.
Gavin Shuker
The hon. Gentleman mentioned personal debt, about which I share a great deal of concern. Is he aware that under the Government’s plans personal debt will rise, not fall, over the coming period?
Richard Fuller
I think the hon. Gentleman is referring to unsecured personal debt rather than overall levels of personal and household debt. There is much for the Government to do, such as examining excessive rises in credit card terms and penalties for people who have to take on unsecured debt, and I believe they intend to do it.
We need to do more about our deficit, and I suggest again that one thing we can do for the sake of general fairness is consider creating a future fund that takes the pension obligations of our public sector workers and puts them into a fully funded scheme. It would take 20 to 25 years to accomplish that, but Australia, New Zealand, France and Norway are doing it, and it would show that this generation in Parliament understands its responsibility to the next generation of Britons. If we added that to our fiscal responsibility, we would be doing the next generation a great favour.
Mrs Louise Ellman (Liverpool, Riverside) (Lab/Co-op)
Investment in transport is absolutely essential for the future of our economy, which means that we need support for transport now and for future projects. I regret that no support was announced in the Budget statement for the maintenance of bus services, which are often important in getting people to work. Rising bus fares are a great burden, and in many cases essential bus services are simply being stopped. Nor was there any short-term relief from ever-rising train fares. I regret the absence of any measures in those areas, which are so vital to people today.
There were some encouraging statements about future transport investment. In the short time that I have available, I want to ask some questions about the meaning behind some of those headline statements. They are encouraging, but a lot lies behind them.
I first wish to refer to rail. I very much welcome the increased commitment to rail electrification. I listened carefully to what was said about Wales, and we would like to know exactly when rail electrification will come to Swansea, which was not very clear. I also welcome the commitment to more electrification across the north of England, and particularly the statement that part of the northern hub had now been agreed to.
Will the Government give a firm commitment to investing half a billion pounds in the northern hub, which is a major scheme to improve rail services right across the north, including places such as Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Sheffield and Newcastle. That £0.5 billion investment would produce a £4 billion boost to northern economies. We are still being told that the value-for-money studies are continuing, to assess whether the whole scheme can be made available. I remind the Minister that the Government are quite rightly investing £15 billion in Crossrail and £5 billion in Thameslink, yet the proposed £0.5 billion for rail right across the north is subject to scrutiny that has not yet come to a conclusion. I should like to hear a firm commitment to the northern hub today.
Major questions have been raised about the disparities in transport investment in different parts of the country. The passenger transport executive found figures showing that three times as much per head was invested in transport in London and the south-east as in the rest of the country. The Institute for Public Policy Research North, examining the implications for transport investment of the autumn statement, in which welcome new investment was announced, found that £2,700 per head was being invested in London and only £5 a head in the north-east. I accept that our capital city needs continuing major investment in transport, but given the needs of the country as a whole it cannot be right to have such wide disparities.
Will the Economic Secretary consider publishing the impact of spending decisions on transport across the country and in the different regions? All parts of the country need investment, but it is simply not right for the interests of the country overall that we continue to have an overheated south-east, while other parts are without essential transport investment.
The Budget contained announcements on road investment. More investment in roads—appropriate roads—is required. We are told that there will be a feasibility study on bringing private investment into our road system, but we need to know a great deal more about what that actually means. We are told that there will not be charges for existing roads, but would the widening of existing roads lead to charges? Is the policy not road charging through the back door, without the safeguards that were considered in the past when road charging as a national policy was under national discussion?
In previous discussions on road charging, it was always assumed—and indeed stated—that if road charges were levied, there would be a compensatory reduction in road taxation paid by the motorists, but it appears that under the Government’s new plans, that reduction in taxation will go to the private sector investors as an incentive to them, and will not accrue to the motorist. This is a major issue. It has been suggested that bringing more private sector investment into roads by leasing or selling our road system would be similar to privatisation of the water utilities—that is what the Prime Minister stated. If it is, it could well lead to a great hike in charges. However, the leasing or selling could be more akin to the Railtrack situation, when maintenance in infrastructure was severely reduced, with tragic consequences.
Gavin Shuker
My hon. Friend mentions parallels with the water industry. Is she aware—many hon. Members may not be—that currently one third of household bills go, in perpetuity, on debt repayments for investment in the water sector?
Mrs Ellman
I thank my hon. Friend for his comment—he makes an very important point and underlines the importance of looking at the policy in great detail. We are told that there will be a feasibility study, but we do not know exactly when that will take place, what it will include, or what kind of consultation there will be. Asking the private sector to own, run and lease our road system is a major step, and detailed scrutiny of exactly what it means for the future as well as the present is essential.
I am pleased that the Government have made statements on their renewed commitment to aviation. If we are to succeed as a country, it is vital that we maintain a successful hub airport. We cannot continue to lose out to our European rivals. It is essential that we build on the hub and do not allow it to decay. Investment in our regional airports is also important. They are important to local areas, but many of them are suffering economically because of the general economic situation. If the Government are interested in aviation for the future, they must look at our regional airports as well as maintaining that essential hub airport.
Hon. Members have been told in the past that there would be a Government aviation strategy that we could debate and consider. That is mentioned in the statement, but the situation is exceedingly vague. I ask the Minister please to tell us this: when will the Government publish their sustainable framework on aviation so that those very important issues can be considered and debated?
In the short time available to me today, I have raised a number of important issues that need proper consideration. I hope the Select Committee on Transport will look at those matters in detail. The whole House will want to know exactly what those headline statements mean. Investment in transport infrastructure is essential for the economic future of the country, but that means the whole country. I hope the Government are committed to doing just that.
Gavin Shuker (Luton South) (Lab/Co-op)
I am extremely grateful to you for calling me to speak on this auspicious day, a Friday sitting, to discuss the Budget, Mr Deputy Speaker. I am also grateful to follow the right hon. Gentleman—[Interruption.] Sorry, the hon. Member for West Suffolk (Matthew Hancock)—
The Lord Commissioner of Her Majesty's Treasury (James Duddridge)
It is only a matter of time.
Gavin Shuker
It is only a matter of time, as the Whip says, so there is a top tip.
The reason I am pleased to follow the hon. Member for West Suffolk is that he promised to talk about some of the long-term reforms required in the economy. If we are to talk about the Budget, we need to talk not only about the long term, but about the capacity in the economy right now, and that is where I will briefly focus my remarks.
Labour Members have examined the Budget in detail and we see a wasted opportunity. We required a Budget for jobs and for growth in the short term that would lead to our prosperity in the long term. Instead, we got a Budget that has fought over the spoils. Two years into this Tory-led Government, we can see the effect that the coalition Government are having on our economic policy. Various Ministers and, indeed, Back Benchers, are fighting over, and leaking in the press, the measures in the Budget. They are fighting not over the scale of the fiscal challenge we face, but over what measures could be assigned to each individual party. It is almost as though, having slashed and burned, they are fighting over who wants to win the spoils for having scorched the earth.
The OBR has said:
“We have made no…material adjustments to the economy forecast as a result Budget 2012 policy announcements.”
The independent OBR accepts that growth will not be changed by this Budget. We all remember last year’s so-called “Budget for growth”, but we have still yet to see a strategy for getting growth in the economy, as the numbers clearly show: over this coming period, borrowing is to be more than £150 billion more than the Government announced just a year ago; the deficit reduction plan has gone from four years to seven; and the Government are trying conveniently to lay by the wayside promises that unemployment numbers would decrease in each and every year of this Parliament. What about the lie that the private sector will pick up where the public sector is being slashed away? We are being given a full body of evidence to prove that that is untrue. It is clear that in both policy and ideology the Government are struggling to get growth going because they are ignoring the lessons of history, particularly the lesson that when the public sector is cut back too far and too fast, fiscal policy has a deflationary effect on the economy. There is a real problem, but unfortunately we have been trapped in a paradigm by this coalition Administration which they cannot get out of.
What are we seeing? A number of tiny interventions, programmes and schemes. Let me go through some of the most eye-catching ones. I was on the Public Bill Committee that considered the legislation introducing the national insurance holiday regime, but only 3.3% of the businesses that the Government said would be helped have been helped under that scheme, so it clearly is not working. We have a much better plan to recycle that money to make sure there is a proper cut in national insurance across the country. Credit easing has yet to help a single business. The business growth fund has six regional offices, with 50 jobs having been created, but there have been just six investments in businesses to get business moving. The export enterprise finance guarantee has helped just six exporters since it was introduced.
In the absence of a clear ideology to get growth growing in our economy what we see are hundreds of tiny measures, none of which is actually giving confidence to business to invest. Roosevelt talked about the alphabet laws when he came to power and about the scale of the challenge that he faced in the States in the 1930s. What we have from this Government is alphabet soup: a series of initiatives, all with long and good-sounding titles, but no actual significant movement in the economy to get growth going. What we are left with are just words, and now they take money out of the pockets of those who are most likely to spend and instead choose to put it in the pockets of millionaires and of people who are already very good at avoiding paying tax in the first place—people who are likely to save it, spend it abroad or spend it in areas that are not going to stimulate the economy. Even those people are calling for action in the economy to get growth growing and not necessarily to reward themselves when growth is not there currently.
Let us consider the situation in the US, where its leader has explicitly talked about the dangers of the austerity narrative and has specifically said that to cut too far, too fast would be detrimental to the US economy over time. And what do we see there? Unemployment falling month by month and significant growth in the economy, just as, funnily enough, there was in this country in this Government’s first few months because they inherited that from the previous Government. Most crucially, capacity in the US economy is being protected. Look at its auto business: many Republicans said it should be let go to the wall but the Democrats stepped up and said, “We will protect it.” Why? Because if capacity is protected in the economy, the ability to keep growth going is retained throughout. We have seen a big turnaround there.
When we go into periods of recession or depression, businesses try to hold on to their ability to manufacture or to keep going for as long as possible—perhaps for six, 12 or 18 months—without laying people off. After a while, however, when it is clear that no lifebelt is coming from the Government, businesses start to lay people off, so a 2,000-employee business becomes a 1,500-employee business. That means that when the growth comes back, it is much harder to manufacture to the previous level. That is the legacy that the Government will leave us to pick up the pieces of—an economy with much less capacity to manufacture and grow to meet the long-term challenges we face. For all the talk of clearing up or picking up the pieces from the global financial crisis and the reforms that are required, we must remember that if our economy does not survive this period, we will not have the foundations for growth in the future.
Roberta Blackman-Woods (City of Durham) (Lab)
It is a pleasure to follow the hon. Member for Amber Valley (Nigel Mills), not least because he aptly demonstrated the huge complacency that exists on the coalition Benches about the need for economic growth. However, I am sorry that the Secretary of State is not in her place, because I am extremely worried about her, on two counts. The first is that she seems to be inhabiting a fantasy land where we are actually experiencing economic growth, and the second is that she seems completely unaware of the fact that we have had a global economic crisis in the past few years, so we need a growth plan to recover from it.
I would have liked to contribute something to the debate about transport, but alas I cannot, because I am afraid the Budget delivered absolutely nothing to meet the transport needs of my constituents. There was no support at all for buses, despite the fact that our bus network is in crisis. I know from my constituents that despite the fact that we have precious few jobs in the area, with 10 people chasing every job vacancy, people are losing jobs because they cannot get buses to work. Care workers—
Gavin Shuker
Is my hon. Friend seriously trying to convince the House that she does not have a cable car in her constituency?
Roberta Blackman-Woods
Alas, I do not have a cable car, but that is a great idea for a new business in my constituency, although where it would take people from and to, I am not exactly sure.
There is no support for transport, despite the fact that business leaders in the north-east have expressed concern that a failure to invest in the region’s transport network could stifle long-term growth. They have made a point that without the right transport and energy supply infrastructure, the region could struggle to realise its full potential. I hope the Minister will take on board these matters in her comments.
What do we know from the analysis of the Budget so far? I have with me an extract from the Financial Times, which concludes that that it is a Budget “without economic significance”. It also says that the Government have absolutely no plans in place to change the unhappy outcome of the slump, and that includes, critically, no plans for the north-east of England. What we do know is that the unemployment figures for the north-east are much higher than those for the south-east: 10.6% in the north-east, compared with 6.6% in the south-east. IPPR North has said that it is the largest gap since the labour force survey began. One might have expected the Red Book reforms to prioritise the north-east in support of economic growth, but in fact there is only one mention of the north-east in its many pages dealing with growth, compared with seven mentions for London. I want to see economic growth in London. It is our capital city and it is important that it is supported. However, that does not excuse giving no attention to the north-east apart from one mention of Newcastle. County Durham is not mentioned at all.
Miss Smith
Mr Deputy Speaker, it may take more time than I have to list all the counties of the UK, although I would be happy to try if you were to be charitable with me. I think the point about the Budget is that it lays out what the Government are doing across the country, and it lays out what the reality is. I will explain the reality, and that is that 226,000 new jobs were created in the private sector last year. That makes over 600,000 since we came into government. The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that from the start of 2011 to 2017, a total of 1.7 million jobs will be created in the market sector. That is private sector growth built on a foundation of economic stability.
I will explain how we have gone even further to encourage greater growth—unless the hon. Member for Luton South (Gavin Shuker) would like to do that job for me.
Gavin Shuker
I am delighted to raise a very important point, and I hope a non-combative one. What is the Government’s position on the child poverty targets, enshrined in law, by 2020?
Miss Smith
This Government take child poverty extremely seriously, and this Government of course— [Interruption.] I beg your pardon. Is the hon. Gentleman still chuntering? Would he like to clarify his question?
Gavin Shuker
I will help the Minister. There is a legal framework in place, under laws passed by the previous Government, to hit child poverty targets by 2020. Will she give Her Majesty’s Government’s position on that target?
Miss Smith
I certainly join the hon. Gentleman in seeking to combat and take out child poverty, but it is this Government who will do that on the basis of our work through the Budget to put private sector growth at the heart of the recovery. The Government will consider all the matters that feed into poverty and not simply transfer income from one side of a line to another.
Let me outline the other key things that we are doing in the Budget. We are overhauling the planning rules, cutting corporation tax, restoring our international competitiveness and creating an invitation for investment in the UK’s economic future. As the House knows, the Government have already set out plans for some £250 billion of infrastructure investment in the next decade and beyond. That is critical to renewing our infrastructure network, which enables Britain to compete with emerging giants in the global market.
The Chancellor provided further details on those ambitions. They include taking forward a feasibility study into ownership and financing models for the road network; supporting Network Rail to invest a further £130 million in the northern hub rail scheme, and providing up to £150 million to projects in core cities, as well as Growing Places funding to empower communities and businesses to lead development in their areas.
Various hon. Members asked questions. I single out those of the hon. Member for Liverpool, Riverside (Mrs Ellman), the Chairman of the Select Committee on Transport, to whom my right hon. Friends will be happy to write to answer her specific questions. I thank other colleagues for their contributions. They will appreciate that I am now rather short of time owing to the pressing matters that Opposition Members raised.
As we invest in our physical infrastructure, it is also important that we invest in our digital infrastructure. That covers matters such as mobile coverage and broadband. It also means pushing such investment into cities; some cities will come forward for the super-connected cities initiative.
We want to help build on our long and very rich history of scientific and technological leadership. It is essential to sustain that and capitalise on our strength. It is also essential that we make the UK manufacturing supply chain more competitive. That sort of investment provides a springboard for entrepreneurs and manufacturers to lead a private sector recovery across all sectors and all parts of the country.
Just as we encourage businesses to expand at home, we must also focus on helping British businesses to expand overseas in ways in which my right hon. Friend the Chancellor set out last week. We can go further on exports—we aim to double our nation’s exports to £1 trillion by the end of the decade. We will not sit idly by while China, India and Brazil forge ahead.
Of course, if we want our businesses to take those risks to invest and hire new workers, we must ensure that they have access to finance. That is why the Budget contains the national loan guarantee scheme, on top of our deficit reduction strategy, which has earned market credibility and low interest rates. We are ensuring that the full benefits of those low interest rates are passed on to businesses throughout the UK.
It is this Government who are taking the decisive action needed to make Britain the best place to start, grow and finance a business; who are putting ingenuity, innovation and the enterprise of people in businesses at the heart of our recovery, and who are restoring our competitiveness and putting the UK at the heart of the global market. We are unashamedly backing business in the Budget by creating the most competitive tax system in the world, removing the bureaucratic burdens on businesses and investing in infrastructure.
My hon. Friends have already mentioned GlaxoSmithKline. I could add Nissan, Jaguar Land Rover and Tesco, which have announced that they are creating thousands of new jobs in the UK.
The Government are building a sustainable and prosperous economy in a recovery that builds on our strengths across all regions of the country and all the creativity and productivity of our private sector. We are also putting money in the pockets of low-paid workers. As the Chancellor said in his Budget speech, the Opposition borrowed us into trouble, we will earn our way out.
Ordered, That the debate be now adjourned.— (Mr Dunne.)
Debate to be resumed on Monday 26 March.
Air Passenger Duty
Gavin Shuker Excerpts(13 years, 1 month ago)
Commons ChamberRead Full debate Read Hansard Text Read Debate Ministerial Extracts
Gavin Shuker (Luton South) (Lab/Co-op)
I congratulate the hon. Gentleman on securing this debate not once, but twice, not least because it gives me the opportunity to welcome the Economic Secretary to the Treasury to her new role—a well-deserved promotion. Does the hon. Gentleman agree that part of the problem with this issue, with which I am very sympathetic, is the fact that there is a gap between the Treasury and the Department for Transport in that the Treasury leads but the Department for Transport is required to produce plans for airports and aviation?
Henry Smith
I am grateful for that intervention. The holy grail of government is joined-up government, with all Departments and the Treasury working together. My right hon. Friend the Minister for the Cabinet Office and Paymaster General is doing a great job in trying to achieve that.
The World Economic Forum’s international tourism competitiveness report ranked the UK 134th out of 138 nations for air taxes, and we are beaten only in the amount we charge by the west African countries of Senegal, Ivory Coast, Mali and Chad. The chief executive of British Airways said:
“Aviation in the UK is the most undervalued and overtaxed industry in Britain. We want to play our full part in assisting Britain’s economic recovery, but we are held back by levels of tax on flying which are higher than anywhere else in the world”.
and added that the increases would cost BA an extra £100 million and put more pressure on ticket prices. At the recent launch of a new Air Asia X route from Kuala Lumpar to London Gatwick, its chief executive stated that it is commercially more difficult to operate from the UK than from France. He pointed out that 10% to 12% of its passengers flying from Paris to Kuala Lumpar are British nationals. That gives a sense of the shift that passengers are already starting to make.
Miss Smith
I can certainly give the hon. Gentleman an assurance that I shall carry on meeting representatives from the Caribbean and, indeed, from Australia and New Zealand very shortly, to discuss those concerns. I am afraid, however, for reasons I shall come on to, that it is rather difficult at this precise moment to give him further assurances, because the Government are due to respond to the consultation. I shall shortly deal with the detail of that, and with his points about per-plane duty.
The good news is that the consultation enabled Ministers to go into all those issues in more detail. The hon. Gentleman will know that in the Budget, the Chancellor announced that, for the first time, as my hon. Friend the Member for Crawley described, APD would be extended to passengers flying aboard business jets, which is another important feature that we have made clear. That addresses a clear unfairness in the system, and the consultation invited views on how that should be addressed.
I cannot promise the hon. Member for Hammersmith (Mr Slaughter) or anyone else that we will meet everyone’s wishes, but we will try to deliver an APD system that is fairer, simpler and more efficient, and the Chancellor will set out those details in due course. On the hon. Gentleman’s point about per-plane duty, to make the position clear, the UK’s international obligations in that area include air service agreements with more than 150 countries, including the 1944 Chicago convention. We will not introduce per-plane duty at present because of concerns about legality and feasibility. We will, however, work with international partners to continue building consensus.
Gavin Shuker
I want to make just a small observation. Before the election, the Conservatives campaigned on moving to a per-plane duty. Given the complexity that the Minister mentioned, can she shed some light on why they said that they would do so?
Miss Smith
The glory of coming into government is that one realises that all sorts of things are worse than one imagined, and that is a case in point. As I have said, the legality and feasibility of that approach have been clarified quite extensively.
I will touch briefly on the question of the devolution of APD. As hon. Members will know, the Chancellor announced that from 1 November 2011 the rate of APD for direct, long-haul passengers departing from Northern Ireland will be cut to the short-haul rate, which I hope we all agree is good for constituents in Belfast East and elsewhere in Northern Ireland. That measure was in response to the unique challenge facing Northern Ireland and is designed to ensure that local airports remain competitive. However, in order to provide a permanent solution to the issue, the Government have launched a process for the devolution of APD to the Northern Ireland Assembly. We are working in close consultation with the Executive to take that forward. I would also like to offer my thanks, and those of my predecessor, to members of the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee for the diligent and helpful input they provided on the issue.
Let me also say a few words about APD and the regions, which hon. Members may be interested in. We received around 500 responses to the APD consultation, many of which related specifically to the question of regional APD rates. It is certainly fair to say that there is no consensus on the matter. Some regional airports have asked us to consider lower APD rates for the regions, but several airlines and hon. Members have asked us to consider the opposite. I note the views of my hon. Friend the Member for Crawley in this regard. On that question, and on the broader reform of APD, the Government aim to publish a full response to the consultation later this autumn. We will of course take into account the views expressed in this debate.
There is one other issue that has been raised which I must address quickly: the environmental impact of aviation. We must recognise the scale of the challenge that confronts us. Since 1990, CO2 emissions from UK aviation have more than doubled. In 2010 they accounted for around 6% of total UK CO2 emissions. As other sectors decarbonise over the coming decades, aviation emissions are likely to make up an increasingly large proportion of total UK emissions. The Government’s approach to this problem is a pragmatic one. The international nature of aviation requires an international response, which is why we support the inclusion of aviation in the EU emissions trading system from 2012. At the same time, the Department for Transport, in true joined-up fashion, is considering the best way to tackle local environmental impacts as part of its aviation policy review.
I know that some have called for the abolition of APD once aviation enters the ETS, but I must point out, as others have done, that APD is fundamentally a revenue-raising duty and currently raises around £2.5 billion a year. The forecast revenues that will result from aviation joining the ETS are only around £0.1 billion a year, reflecting the fact that under the relevant EU directive most of the allowances for the system will be given to airlines for free. In looking forward, however, the Government will assess the revenue requirements from aviation taxes, including those from the ETS, in the round.
In conclusion, I hope that we can continue to have constructive debates in a way that helps deliver a tax system for air transport that is fair and sustainable for the long term and puts us on a positive footing in the world. I thank my hon. Friend the Member for Crawley again for bringing this matter to the attention of the House.
Question put and agreed to.