National Insurance Contributions (Secondary Class 1 Contributions) Bill

Dan Tomlinson Excerpts

2nd reading
Tuesday 3rd December 2024 Commons Chamber

[Dan Tomlinson (Chipping Barnet) (Lab)]

It is good to speak in this important debate. This is an issue of much importance, in part because it touches on trust in politics. We know from looking at the datasets that trust in politics has fallen to a record low in this country. People sadly do not trust politicians any more to deliver on the commitments they set out in their manifestos and to bring the change necessary to improve our public services. That is the data we can see, and we can see it because of the decisions of the Conservative party.

[Patrick Spencer]

Does the hon. Member not think that the fact the Labour party went into the last general election promising not to raise taxes on working people might be part of the problem?

[Dan Tomlinson]

We have stuck to the commitments we made in our manifesto, and that is why the British people will see over the months and years to come that they voted for change and investment in our public services, and that is what this Budget makes possible.

When we came into power in July, we faced a difficult economic inheritance. I wish we had taken power in more benign circumstances, but Opposition Members will know that public sector debt had increased to 100% of GDP—the same size as the economy—and trillions of pounds, constraining our ability—[Interruption.] They are chuntering from the Front Bench, but it is true that public sector debt increased to 100% of GDP—a massive increase on the Conservatives’ watch—making it more difficult for us to manage the public finances in a sustainable way, which is what we want to do and what they failed to do.

We also took over after 14 years of failure on productivity and wage growth. If wages had grown in line with the pre-financial crisis trend, families in my constituency and constituencies across the country would not be £100 or £200 better off a year; each worker would be £10,700 better off a year.

[Stuart Anderson]

On productivity, all the public sector wage increases that have been given since the Government have been in power come with no productivity requests or increases. How does the hon. Member square that circle?

[Dan Tomlinson]

I think we will see productivity increases in the NHS, because part of the reason that it has struggled for productivity in recent years is that it has not had the necessary investment, so doctors and nurses have not had the beds and capital expenditure that they need in their hospitals. I have been to Barnet hospital in my Chipping Barnet constituency and spoken to the chief executive of the trust. They were clear that what has happened nationally, and has filtered through to their hospital, is that capital spending budgets have been raided to fund day-to-day spending, and that has made it more difficult for the NHS to be productive. More beds and £3 billion for scanners and other capital equipment will make a difference to productivity in the NHS. [Interruption.] Conservative Members know that that is the case.

Let us just go back to the inheritance that the Labour Government face. We have high public debt, low productivity and wage growth. Our economy has also been hampered because the Conservative party has made it much more difficult for us to trade with our nearest neighbours. That has been bad for competition and productivity across the country. I could go on about the economic inheritance, but I do not wish to make hyperbolic statements or overdo it; we can just look at the facts presented to the Labour Government.

[Bradley Thomas]

When the Conservative Government headed by David Cameron were elected in 2010, the circumstances that they faced following Labour’s trashing of the economy meant that it took two and a half to three years to get the public on board. That stands in great contrast to what happened this summer, when Labour inherited good economic circumstances, with the economy growing and inflation down. In fact, has the electorate not been deceived?

[Dan Tomlinson]

The economy was not growing at a fast pace when we took over; we were growing slower than five other G7 countries in the quarter before the Conservative party lost power. That is the truth. Conservative Members can deny it if they want, and come up with a fancy way to analyse the economic statistics in order to claim that we were the fastest-growing economy in the G7, but in the final quarter before they lost office—and in 2023—we were growing slower than five other G7 countries. We were growing faster than other countries in 2022 only because we were recovering from the pandemic. They know that that is the case.

I fear that, in their stance today, Conservative Members are again covering themselves in the pong of the Liz Truss Administration. That Administration made the mistake of not making efforts to balance day-to-day public spending and tax increases. That is what caused interest rates to rise and the economy to be in much turmoil. The Labour Government are ensuring that increases in day-to-day spending are matched by increases in tax revenues—[Interruption.] I said increases in day-to-day spending are being matched by tax revenues.

[Damian Hinds]

rose—

[Dan Tomlinson]

I will give way.

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Ms Nusrat Ghani)]

Order. The hon. Gentleman has already taken two interventions, and the clock will now continue to run for every subsequent intervention that he takes, just in case he was not aware of that and wants to take this intervention from Mr Hinds.

[Dan Tomlinson]

Maybe I will take further interventions when I speak in tomorrow’s debate, Madam Deputy Speaker, because I know that many Members still wish to speak.

In my final 13 seconds, let me conclude by saying that the risk for the Conservative party is that it forgets the importance of managing the public finances, which gives us the economic stability from which growth can come. By voting against the Government, Conservative Members will make that more difficult, and will signal that they do not wish to have economic stability and growth.

--- Later in debate ---

[Gareth Davies]

There is really nothing to add to that. The hon. Gentleman made that point in his speech and at Treasury questions—it is a very important point.

In just six months, we have hit the highest tax burden in history. Debt is up, with debt interest payments above £100 billion—for the first time ever—in every year of the forecast. Today’s Bill will result in lower wages, higher prices and a tougher employment market. I urge this Government to reverse course, but I will not hold my breath. Instead, I think I can predict what the Minister is going to say. She is going to say three things when she stands up to speak. First, she is going to try to blame the Conservative party—blaming everybody else for this clear political choice. She will not explain the £8 billion on GB Energy—an energy company that will not actually reduce bills or produce any energy—or the £10 billion on public pay splurges that come with no reform on productivity, or £7 billion on rebranding the national infrastructure bank. Perhaps if the Government dropped those pet projects—which will not actually grow the economy—they would have a little more money and would not have to screw with small businesses and make people unemployed.

Secondly, the Minister will forget that she is in government and that I am in opposition. She will ask me what my party would do instead. To that, I simply say that we would fund the NHS well, but we would also reform it.

[Dan Tomlinson]

Would the shadow Minister increase borrowing or increase a different tax, or are there some public spending cuts that he would like to announce?

[Gareth Davies]

I hope the British people are listening to this: none of those things. I remind the hon. Gentleman, although he was not here, that NHS spending increased by 45% in cash terms in the last Parliament under a Conservative Government. The issue is not spending—the Labour party will never get this—but reforming the NHS, as my hon. Friend the Member for Bromsgrove (Bradley Thomas) said. It is about growing our economy faster than the Labour party would grow it, according to the OBR, as my hon. Friend the Member for Isle of Wight East (Joe Robertson) said. We would tackle the welfare bill—£12 billion of savings that we set out in government—and we would boost productivity, because if public sector productivity returned to pre-pandemic levels, £20 billion would be saved.

Finally, the Minister will try to suggest that she is bringing stability, even though businesses and consumer confidence have plummeted ever since she and her colleagues took office. Let us remind ourselves of what she means by stability. In just a few months, we have seen a Downing Street chief of staff sacked, a Cabinet Minister resign, a Back-Bench MP quit the party, key manifesto promises like cutting energy bills by £300 completely dropped, a delayed spending review, fiddled fiscal rules and, just this week, complete confusion about whether the Prime Minister will drop his economic growth pledge. It is all so predictable, yet so damaging to our economy. The Bill breaks Labour’s manifesto. We cannot back it. We will not vote for it. We urge the Government to think again

National Insurance Contributions (Secondary Class 1 Contributions) Bill

Dan Tomlinson Excerpts

Committee of the whole House & 3rd reading
Tuesday 17th December 2024 Commons Chamber

[Joe Robertson (Isle of Wight East) (Con)]

The Government knew that if they raised national insurance contributions in the Budget, it would be devastating for health and social care. That is why they exempted the NHS; they knew that it would be put under acute pressure by the Budget. They did not exempt some of the key partners that deliver health and social care in this country, that they will rely on to move people out of acute care and into community care, and that they will rely on to achieve prevention rather than cure—all things that the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care says he wants to do. They will rely on GPs, pharmacies, hospices and social care, yet the national insurance contributions fall on them.

Hospices will pay £260 million. According to Community Pharmacy England, pharmacists will pay £50 million. Social care will pay £2.4 billion. All that money will move across to the NHS, which is largely slanted towards acute provision. That runs completely counter to what the Health Secretary said he wants to do. His answer to those GPs, pharmacists and hospices who are deeply concerned is, “We will deal with this in due course.” “Due course” means “We have absolutely no idea and no plan at all.” He and, indeed, Treasury spokespeople say that they will deal with hospices in the usual contracting way.

The contracts of hospices like Mountbatten just outside my constituency on the Isle of Wight are with the integrated care board. They do not have a contract with Government, the Department of Health and Social Care or an NHS employer. Under those contracts, there is no clause for uplift of salary, or for recovering the increased cost of national insurance contributions. Saying, “We will deal with it in the usual way through contracting” shows either a complete lack of understanding of how hospice services contract with the public sector, or a complete indifference, disregard and, frankly, contempt.

As for other sectors of the economy, national insurance increases hit those who employ people—sectors that rely on larger workforces, such as hospitality and tourism, which my constituency on the Isle of Wight is heavily reliant on. This is a tax on working people, because it disincentivises employing working people, and even the OBR says that 60% of the impact will likely be felt by those on lower wages. It also says that growth will peak next year at 2%—in fact, that is the Treasury’s own figure—and then it will fall away for the rest of the decade. This is not a growth Budget. As for those working in hospitality and tourism, many of whom are seasonal or part-time workers, they will be brought into the national insurance tax regime for the first time.

Brilliant businesses in my constituency, such as the Yarbridge Inn in Brading, the Spyglass Inn in Ventnor, and all the independent hotels in Sandown, Shanklin and elsewhere, will be squeezed further, right at the time when they are trying to recover from covid, and when our tourism and hospitality sectors are competing with cheaper, overseas holidays. The sector is already heavily taxed compared with hospitality and tourism elsewhere in Europe. This is an unpatriotic tax, because it disincentivises the visitor economy and tourism in Britain.

I urge the Government to go back and look again at providing relief to hospitality and tourism, as well as to health and social care. As my right hon. Friend the Member for Beverley and Holderness (Graham Stuart) said, there is no shame in the Government recognising their mistakes in both sectors, and coming up with genuine relief for health and social care and for tourism and hospitality.

[Dan Tomlinson (Chipping Barnet) (Lab)]

I very much welcome the chance to speak in this debate on an important topic. I am sure that Members on both sides of the House will be glad to know that this is the first speech of mine that is not subject to a time limit, so I can speak for as long as humanly possible on the intricacies and joys of national insurance contributions, and I hope to stay on the topic at hand.

Not having a time limit also gives me the chance to make a great parliamentary speech on this important topic. We all know what good speeches look like; they are not a simple list of points reeled off in order, but may include great rhetorical flourishes, the use of the English language at its finest, and nuanced arguments. But, Madam Chair, I will make six simple points, in list form, in favour of the national insurance changes before us. I have missed my opportunity, but maybe I will make such a speech in future.

These changes are incredibly important. I urge Opposition Members to vote with the Government against the amendments, so that we can get the changes that we need for our country. The first reason that I think the changes are important and sensible is that they will mean that the Labour Government stick to the pledge we made in the election campaign not to increase taxes on working people. It is important that we rebuild trust in our politics, which has fallen to a record low. I know that this is contested in the House, but Labour is clear that these specific changes protect working people’s payslips and mean that we do not have to make the changes that others have suggested for income tax and value added tax. Trust in our politics is very important.

The second reason I encourage Members to vote with the Government tonight is that the changes provide vital funding for our public services. I am not too sure whether Conservative Members—I would be interested to hear from them—support the additional funding for public services. I said this in the previous debate on the Bill, so I am a bit like a broken record, but if they do support additional funding, would they raise it through additional borrowing or different tax rises?

[Joe Robertson]

rose—

[Dan Tomlinson]

Before I have even heard the hon. Member’s request to intervene, I happily give way.

[Joe Robertson]

I can offer the hon. Member a solution for growing the tax base: grow the economy. That is by far the best way of increasing the tax take. This Budget does not grow the economy—that is the problem.

[Dan Tomlinson]

I will come to growth, which is the sixth point on my very exciting list, but I will just say that this Budget will see growth increase in the short term and stay broadly unchanged over the forecast period, and the OBR says that the increased public sector investment that we are making will lead to a small but significant increase in growth in the long run. I wholeheartedly agree with the hon. Member that we need economic growth in this country.

It is important that we provide the revenue to fund our public services. I will not repeat the convincing and powerful arguments made by Labour Members about the broken nature of our public services. In Chipping Barnet, policing is really struggling, and 100,000 people in the Royal Free London NHS foundation trust area are waiting to be seen by our local hospital. We need to provide funding in a sustainable way.

The third point on my exciting list of reasons to vote with the Government tonight is that these changes provide stability. We all know that we need economic stability—it is the foundation of the economic growth that the hon. Member for Isle of Wight East (Joe Robertson) just made an important intervention on. I believe that the Chancellor and the Treasury team made the right decision, even though it was difficult, to raise revenues to fund our public services and put our public finances on an even keel once again. This change means that over the coming years, we will get to a place where, for the first time in a very long time, day-to-day spending will be matched by the tax revenues that are coming in. I think all Members of the House will agree that that is important, but I know that Labour Members prioritise that stability, which has been lacking for too long.

Fourthly, these changes cut taxes for the smallest businesses—a quarter of a million businesses, as my hon. Friend the Member for Glasgow East (John Grady) made clear. Again, I am interested to know whether Opposition Members support or oppose the cut in taxes for the smallest businesses that this Budget provides.

Fifthly, we have prioritised sound public finances, which is a big change from recent years. The mini-Budget that was passed by Liz Truss contributed to pushing up interest rates in our economy, making things more difficult for families in my constituency and across the country. It also added not £6 billion, or even £16 billion, but £60 billion to Government borrowing costs each year—Members can see those numbers in the Office for Budget Responsibility’s report. That and other failures to manage our public finances over the past 14 years have driven up our public debt from £1 trillion, as it was in 2010, to £2.8 trillion, which I believe was the latest estimate from the Office for National Statistics. If we support additional spending on our public services, it is vital that we also make the right decision to raise revenue that will cover that increase in public spending, so that we can have the sound public finances that the public want from this Government.

[David Chadwick (Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe) (LD)]

Can the hon. Member explain why his Government are choosing to raise taxes on GPs’ surgeries, which did not crash the economy or the public finances, rather than opting to raise the revenue from the big banks, as the Liberal Democrats suggest?

[Dan Tomlinson]

We have made changes to a whole range of taxes in the Budget, and it is important to note that the scale of revenue that the Liberal Democrat party is talking about would not cover the additional funding that we are providing—£20 billion for our health services and additional funding for a whole range of public services. I understand that in the coming weeks, the Health Secretary will come forward with more details on many of the vital services that Members have mentioned today. I must put on record that I very much enjoyed meeting GPs in my constituency over recent weeks. They raised a whole range of issues with me, including the big challenges they have faced over the past 14 years in getting the support and funding that they need. I hope and trust that in the coming weeks and months, this Government will put that right.

I am sure that the hon. Member for Isle of Wight East will enjoy my final point. My sixth reason for voting for this Bill, rather than for the mistaken and erroneous amendments that have been tabled, is that the changes we have put forward in this Budget, including on national insurance, will pave the way for higher growth and higher living standards. As in all good speeches, this last point brings together some of the other points made—so this may not have been just a boring list. Through ensuring economic stability and funding our public services properly, we will make sure that people get the health services that they need, so that they are not struggling with ill health that drives them to economic inactivity and pushes them away from the jobs market. We will make sure that people feel secure on their streets, and that businesses feel safe, rather than struggling with shoplifting, which has become all too rife. Those are the changes that this Budget and the measures in this Bill provide.

[Lincoln Jopp]

I am grateful to the hon. Member for giving way, particularly on the subject of growth. He, like me, is an avid reader of the Labour party manifesto, so he knows that sustained economic growth is the first mission of this Government. I think we all agree on the point that sustained economic growth is a really good thing, so could he simply tell us whether he thinks these national insurance changes are pro-growth or anti-growth? It is a very simple question.

[Dan Tomlinson]

I thank the hon. Member kindly for his intervention. I am not sure whether all Members know this, but the Labour party chair has appointed me as the growth mission champion, so I am very much in favour of economic growth. We can see the impact of the changes in the round at the Budget, leading to higher growth in the short term and further growth in the long run, which is very important.

Without the changes in this Bill and in the Budget as a whole, we will not be able to turn the page on the low growth we have experienced as a country over the last 14 years. Productivity growth since the financial crisis has been at just 0.2%, which is why we had the longest squeeze on wages since Napoleon was making his way around Europe on the Conservative party’s watch. We need to turn that around and make sure that we provide the foundation of stability, fund our public services and, yes, support some of the very smallest businesses with these changes, so that we can get the economic growth that Members on all sides, including growth champions, would very much like to see in the years ahead.

[James MacCleary (Lewes) (LD)]

I have to start by disappointing the hon. Member for Chipping Barnet (Dan Tomlinson), in that I rise to support the amendments tabled by my hon. Friend the Member for St Albans (Daisy Cooper). I will speak about my deep concerns about the proposed national insurance changes because of the real-world impact they will have businesses, GP surgeries, community organisations and vital care services in my constituency of Lewes. While I recognise the fiscal pressures, which have been mentioned by a lot of Members, I ask that we fully consider how these changes will affect those working tirelessly to keep our communities vibrant, secure and healthy.

GP surgeries are the frontline of the NHS. A local GP practice in my constituency has been in touch with me just today to describe its shock at discovering that it will be paying at least £60,000 more a year under these changes. GP practices provide vital healthcare services to our local population and in doing so are under ever-increasing pressures. Yet under the new proposals, GP practices are treated as if they are private businesses capable of absorbing significant cost increases. The reality is, of course, quite different. Every additional £1 spent on national insurance is £1 that is not spent on patient care, staffing or critical medical equipment. For practices already operating under immense strain, this extra burden could be the tipping point that pushes them towards unsustainable financial territory. When cutbacks occur, it is our communities that will lose vital healthcare access, and the NHS, which is already stretched, will be left struggling even more.

We must also acknowledge that our social care providers, including hospices such as St Peter and St James hospice, which looks after my constituents so well—I visited it recently—are caught between rising wages, fixed local authority fees and higher national insurance. They cannot pass on these costs without threatening their very viability. If care providers close or scale back, the most vulnerable in our community will suffer, and so will our healthcare system as hospital stays lengthen and A&E attendances rise. In other words, it will drive up costs for the NHS, making the system less efficient and less humane. It is particularly galling that NHS employers are set to be compensated for the changes while there is no equivalent commitment for the social care sector. Separating social care reform from NHS support will not only hurt vulnerable people today, but make it impossible to achieve strategic priorities for the health service tomorrow.

We must also consider community organisations. Take the Sussex Community Development Association in my constituency. It is a local organisation that reinvests every penny of surplus into essential services such as youth work, emergency food provision and childcare for deprived communities in my constituency. It is already contending with increased wage costs, and it now faces an estimated additional £70,000 per year due to the national insurance rise. Because of its size, it does not qualify for allowances that might soften the blow. This facility was invested in to deliver Sure Start services under a previous Labour Government, and it is now considering cuts to essential services thanks to this one. It now faces a desperate scramble for funding at a time when its services have never been more crucial.

The rise, coupled with the increases to the national living wage and the minimum wage, will hit the early education and childcare sector particularly hard. As chair of the all-party parliamentary group for childcare and early education, I must make the Committee aware of how dire the situation is. An average nursery will face additional staffing costs of nearly £40,000 a year due to the increases. That is because staffing costs account for 75% of nurseries’ running costs, compared with just 30% for the average restaurant. If Government funding rates do not cover the gap, parents will face higher fees, potentially leaving them to reduce their working hours or to leave the workforce altogether.

The situation is exacerbated by the fact that private nurseries delivering Government-funded hours may not be eligible for employment allowance. That means that they may not receive the intended financial support from the Government. The sector is already facing recruitment challenges, with 29,000 new staff needed by September 2025 to deliver the promised 30 hours of funded childcare. The national insurance changes could lead to recruitment freezes, reduced staff training and even nursery closures. That is the precise opposite of what this Government claim they want to see for working parents and carers. That would have a detrimental effect on families and the economy, hindering economic growth, and it could seriously impact the Government’s commendable aim of having half a million more children hitting early learning goals by 2030.

Finally, let us not forget that even successful local businesses are feeling the strain. Rathfinny, a renowned Sussex wine producer in my constituency that has invested in our local economy and environment, faces a significantly higher national insurance bill. It may be forced to slow its growth, reduce investment or even curb local employment opportunities, undermining the prosperity that benefits us all. This Government talk about economic growth, as Government Members have done today, but this tax increase will inhibit the ability of many British businesses to expand and flourish.

If introduced without nuance, these national insurance changes risk delivering a series of damaging shocks to my community and places across the country. I urge the Government and the Minister to reconsider, to review the thresholds, to consider exemptions for sectors that cannot pass on costs and to ensure that our GP practices, childcare providers, community organisations and valued local employers are not left shouldering burdens they cannot bear. I implore the Government to recognise the unintended consequences and to commit to measures that will preserve local jobs, sustain our community services and uphold the quality of care we offer our vulnerable citizens. I hope that the Government will do more to ensure that this tax increase does not harm the very communities and services we have pledged to serve and protect.

[Sammy Wilson]

The outcome of the debate is of course inevitable: we know that when we go through the Lobby, we will be smashed by the overwhelming strength on the Government side, not because their arguments are strong but because of the parliamentary arithmetic. I suspect that even the hon. Member for Walthamstow (Ms Creasy), who indicated in her speech that this measure will hit especially labour-intensive services that employ low-paid people and are vital to the smooth running of the economy, will walk through the Lobby with the Government. Some people might say, “Is that not just the politics of despair?” It is important that the arguments made are at least challenged, despite the fact that, because of the parliamentary arithmetic, it may not come to anything.

I do not actually have a political point to score here, because the DUP will never be the alternative Government in this place—though the country is the worse for it. I therefore hope that all the predictions made here today and by independent bodies that have looked at the impact of the Budget are wrong. I hope that we do not find that small employers have to go out of business, that recruitment goes down, that the real wages of those who are employed—especially at the lower end of the wage spectrum—are cut, and that the services that are so vital to the health service are impacted on. I hope that all those things do not happen. I hope that economic growth is not impacted by it, but all the economic evidence, the economic logic and the forecasts made indicate that the arguments made against this measure by Opposition Members are correct.

[Dan Tomlinson]

My understanding is that the Office for Budget Responsibility says that growth will be higher in the short term, broadly unchanged over five years and higher in the long term.

[Sammy Wilson]

We have seen over the last five months that growth has already been impacted. Of course, the OBR has indicated that in two and three years’ time, growth will be impacted negatively as well. I do not think that one can hide behind those arguments. As I said, I hope that I am wrong, but I suspect that all the economic logic on the impact of this measure and what we are already hearing from employers indicate that that is not the case.