Combat Air Capability

Lord West of Spithead Excerpts

Thursday 10th October 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Coaker (Lab)]

The noble and gallant Lord makes a good point. He is really referring to investment in our defence capabilities as we go forward. The review will look at the threats that we need to meet, but this Government have made an absolute commitment to go to 2.5% of GDP as soon as we can. I think that gives some reassurance to the noble and gallant Lord.

[Lord West of Spithead (Lab)]

My Lords, we have two aircraft carriers, which will last for some 50 years. Will the Minister confirm that, in this package of air capability—which we absolutely need and do not have enough of—some aircraft will have the capability of operating from those carriers?

[Lord Coaker (Lab)]

I certainly believe that the noble Lord is right to point out that, if we have aircraft carriers, we need aircraft to operate from them. I accept that. As far as the defence review is concerned, there is no doubt that we will look at the future capabilities we need, in respect of how those carriers are deployed and where they should be deployed, but also in respect of the necessary air combat power we need to meet the threats that the noble Lord will know well—as indeed will the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup.

Strategic Defence Review

Lord West of Spithead Excerpts

Wednesday 9th October 2024 Grand Committee

[Lord West of Spithead (Lab)]

My Lords, we are all aware that threats to global stability are greater and more unpredictable than at any time for several decades, and the SDR will, I am sure, lay them out very clearly and starkly. That is of course much easier to do than to articulate what it means for the UK, and what action we should take, to ensure the survival, safety, security and wealth of our nation and people into the future. How should we position ourselves?

The SDR has to identify how we see our position in the world and what we should be doing. We are presently a medium-sized world power: the sixth-richest nation in the world, with nuclear weapons and 14 overseas territories, and a permanent member of the UN Security Council. We still run global merchant shipping from London. We are the major European investor in south Asia, south-east Asia and the Pacific Rim, with consequent benefits for our balance of payments. All this needs protection and looking after. Successive Prime Ministers have been able to walk the world stage, being listened to and courted for alliance membership et cetera, because of our military power and not our considerable soft power. This is no longer the case; defence has been systematically underfunded for many years. Everyone recognises that our forces are hollowed out.

The 1998 SDR produced by my noble friend Lord Robertson was the best of the many produced since the end of the Cold War. It identified a force structure and the alliances required to fulfil what was seen as needed to counter the threats that our nation faced at the time, and it did that very well. It very quickly ceased being fully funded. I was successively Chief of Defence Intelligence, Commander-in-Chief Fleet and First Sea Lord from 1998 to 2006, and I had to wrestle with the problems that caused. I got a bollocking, in fact, from my political masters because I said to the media that a ship could be in only one place at one time. This was in reaction to the fact that our order of 12 45s was reduced to six and we were not going to order any more frigates. My goodness me, how we would love to have them now, with events in the Red Sea and around the world. Decisions made in defence, of course, have a long-term effect and we always need to be aware of that. Numbers have strength in themselves.

Similarly, the design of the Type 45s—this was identified in the SDR—allowed for the fitting of land attack missiles and the ability to shoot down ballistic missiles. Again, when I went to the Secretary of State for Defence at the time to say that this had to be done and fitted, he said, “No, this money is not there now”. I do not know quite where it had gone but it was not there. Again, money was the elephant in the room.

Many have argued that cyber, AI, quantum, satellites, digitisation, drones and so on mean that platforms are unimportant. All I can say is that if you are 500 miles south of Hormuz or in the middle of the Arctic and you have not got a platform, you are swimming. I have done that in the past; it is not much fun. Yes, technology has changed and is changing war, but that has always been the case. It does not actually make things cheaper; if anything, it adds to the cost. Again, I reiterate that money is the elephant in the room.

The nuclear deterrent is extremely expensive. The maintenance of CASD, which is running on old boats as the new boats are introduced into service and new warheads are produced, needs to be seen as a national endeavour. It is very important for our nation but, as it stands, the defence budget cannot support the deterrent without growing damage to our conventional capability.

I am sure that the SDR team will go into resilience; preparedness; sovereign capability; the need for defence firms to be able to ramp up production and ensure supply in times of tension and war; the need for national repair and upgrade facilities; and the need for trained, qualified staff to operate them. I am sure that procurement will be looked at again. It needs to be, not least to address the anachronistic contracting and acquisition system, which is much better suited to the leisurely pace of peacetime than urgency in wartime. Manpower is a mess. We must ensure that we have sufficient, highly trained men and women, in particular computer-literate, digitally aware engineering specialists. A slight surplus of manpower is not that efficient, I know, but it is better than too little. Alliances are crucial as we often do not have the strength to act unilaterally. It is important to ensure that we bring to an alliance the key capabilities it does not really have enough of.

My key question for those conducting the review is: what, in military strategic terms, is most important for our nation? What do our allies value most? What is the most critical environment, bearing in mind that all the environments work together and intermesh, as we do not have sufficient money to focus on all of them? As noble Lords might imagine, to my mind, it is the maritime environment. We are an island. We depend on the sea for our survival and wealth. I can tell noble Lords from my time in the intelligence world that our enemies know that only too well. Maritime capability is what our allies expect of us. The growing strength of the European NATO allies on land and the limits of their strengths at sea reinforce that. For example, the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO and Poland’s army expansion programme alone have added 20 army brigades to NATO’s terrestrial strength, as well as a plethora of fast jets. There is no such naval growth.

I wish the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, well with this huge task ahead of him.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Hogan-Howe (CB)]

My Lords, I rise with some humility, not having the background of the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Craig, or many of the experts we have heard today—I am sure will hear from more. I rise as, I hope, a reasonably well-informed Member of this House—just a layman—who has growing concerns about the defence of this country as we see the threat grow, as has been described, and, frankly, our ability to respond to it decrease.

I will not set out the threat because other noble Lords have described the various international threats incredibly well. I want to concentrate my comments in three areas. First, have we explained to the public in simple language why we will need to spend more on defence, recruit more personnel and probably pay higher taxes? Or do we imagine that the people of this country can calculate this for themselves, or that it is self-evident?

Secondly, are we moving quickly enough to put our defence strategies into action to confront and—most importantly, as other speakers have said—deter our potential enemies? Do we rely too much at times on the support of our friends to make ourselves more credible?

Thirdly, it is said that wars are won by those with the best logistics. So have we engaged industry at the right level to deliver equipment and other resources at scale, speed and the flexibility to pivot or respond to new threats generated, as they will be, by any new conflict? Procurement has been mentioned a few times, but I argue that Covid showed why our procurement systems at state level can rarely be relied on. Although they delivered vaccines, it showed that the system as a whole was not fit for purpose. Would it be fit for purpose for any war or conflict we became involved in?

I want to make clear that I support this and the previous Government’s broad strategy. In particular, we have been at the forefront of the international community’s bid to support Ukraine and we must carry on in that relentless and ruthless endeavour to defeat Russia and the enemies of Israel, and to deter any further aggression across the world. The bullies in this world must know that we will face them down and that they will lose.

My answer to the three rhetorical questions I posed is that I am not persuaded that we have done anywhere near enough in these three hugely important areas. First, do the public understand why we will need to spend more? Well, they see the war in Ukraine on the news. They know that we have taken in Ukrainian families and given them safe haven here. We have trained many Ukrainian forces here in the UK. They see what is happening in the Middle East, but do they know what is happening in the Balkans and the obvious tensions there? Do they understand that if Russia succeeds in Ukraine, there are many smaller countries immediately in its path in the Baltic and northern Europe that will have a bear at their door—a potential standing army of 1.5 million that will be standing around waiting for something else to do? Do they need to be reminded of the immense achievements of Poland, which is raising an army of 350,000, provides logistical support to Ukraine and is the next country to the west should Ukraine be overrun?

As mentioned previously, apart from our commitments through NATO, perhaps this generation should be reminded of the catalyst for the conflagration in 1939 when Poland was invaded from another direction. Perhaps we have all become complacent that land war in Europe is a thing of the past, when Ukraine and the Balkans show that that is not the case.

There are two reasons to make this case more clearly. The first is the cost—everybody has talked about this—because someone is going to have to pay, and people need to be persuaded to put their hands in their pockets. It may also cost UK lives. If we want people to make such a sacrifice, they will need to be persuaded. Lord Kitchener found a simple way of doing this in the First World War, but I do not think that will work any more. With this generation, asking people to support a country without explaining why would be properly challenged and questioned. I do not think they are any less courageous than we have all hoped we were, but I do think they will need better explanations.

The answer to the second question, on whether our Armed Forces are large enough, must be no because we have said that we will spend more on them—up to 2.5% of GDP—although, as has been remarked already, we have not said by when. That seems a real challenge, because otherwise it is just a vague promise. If we do not set a date, how can anybody know when it has been achieved? It is not just about the previous Government; this Government will face the same challenge.

Is it not true that, with all the context we have described and threats getting bigger, our Armed Forces have in fact got smaller? Over the past two years, our Armed Forces have dropped by 18,000 when everybody has been saying that the threats have been getting bigger. Ukraine was invaded in February 2022; it was actually invaded for the first time in 2014. Yet, over the past two years, while these things have been happening, our Armed Forces have got far smaller. As has been said, the Russian army is increasing to around 1.5 million, despite the fact that it has lost 650,000 casualties—either dead or injured—over the past two and a half years. This is a massive number that every country will have to consider. In this country, not only have we lost 18,000 since 2022 but we have lost a further 4,000 over the past two years. So it is hard to say that we are pursuing the priority that we say we have set.

The noble Lord, Lord West, reminds us constantly of how few frigates we have. It has almost become a parody. People laugh when it is mentioned.

[Lord West of Spithead (Lab)]

They are doing it now.

[Lord Hogan-Howe (CB)]

It is an incredibly serious issue, yet we all half laugh. The noble Lord has been the necessary grit in the oyster to remind everybody about the importance of what we are addressing. It is important that we all confront that reality.

I want to talk about industry. I wonder whether industry has been primed; this will be part of procurement but will depend on money because industry cannot tool up and train up unless there is a stream of money coming in the following years. Industry will have to be persuaded to invest, and the Government will have to find a way to encourage, promote and persist to make sure that this is delivered. Look at what is happening with the steel industry in south Wales: there is an inability to deliver core, ordinary steel, let alone the specialised steel that we need for military aircraft, tanks and all the other things required by the military. It makes me wonder whether we have the strategic reserve.

My final point concerns things at home. We have seen in Ukraine attacks on the capacity to provide electricity generation. Are we certain that we have the reserves? If we were attacked from the air, would we be able to stop it, or would we really struggle?

My answer to all three of the questions I have posed is that I do not feel we are doing enough, nor doing things quickly enough. I also do not think we are explaining things well enough. We want the public to support this, not just with their lives at times but through their taxes—generally, of course, we want them to support what our Armed Forces are doing in a way that only they can—but I do not think we have found that voice yet. I do not think we have roared. Poland has made a statement. I do not know what ours is, and I do not know when we will make it.

Ministry of Defence: Expenditure

Lord West of Spithead Excerpts

Thursday 25th July 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Coaker (Lab)]

I thank the noble Baroness for her welcome to the post; it is an honour to follow her, as well as the noble Earl, Lord Minto. We have made a clear commitment to 2.5%, and the timetable for that will be announced at a future fiscal event. Alongside that, as the noble Baroness will know, the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, is conducting the review. As we think is important, the noble Lord will come forward with the capabilities needed to meet the threats of the future, and then we will know what we should be spending the money on, rather than just flying blind, without any idea as to the threats we will face and the capabilities needed to meet them.

[Lord West of Spithead (Lab)]

On a much narrower point, where do we stand on the order for the fleet solid support ships, bearing in mind the dreadful financial position of Harland & Wolff?

[Lord Coaker (Lab)]

The noble Lord will know that the situation with respect to the Belfast shipyard and Harland & Wolff is a difficult one. Our expectation is that those ships will be able to be built. Clearly, the company is looking for a private sector business to support it, and we will look to do what we can to support it in that.

King’s Speech

Lord West of Spithead Excerpts

Thursday 25th July 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord West of Spithead (Lab)]

My Lords, today I intend to focus on defence, but of course defence and foreign policy are so closely aligned that it is sometimes difficult to do that.

As highlighted in the gracious Speech, and as many speakers have already mentioned, we live in a very dangerous and volatile world. Global threats are increasing. I would go so far as to say that we are already at war in the grey zone with Russia. That is ongoing, if you look at cyberattacks. Using weapons of mass destruction on the soil of another country is a pretty serious thing. Russia has done that to our country.

The Prime Minister has reaffirmed that the defence and security of the nation and our people is the first and most important duty of any Government. That is great; all Governments seem to say that. He has embarked on a strategic defence review. I have been on the active list of 59 years now—noble Lords might not believe it, considering how young I look—so you must excuse my nervousness over defence reviews. With the exception of one, which was conducted by my noble friend Lord Robertson, I am afraid that during those 59 years they have all cited efficiency savings, but those are effectively reductions in military capability. There has certainly never been an increase in defence spending. As the noble Lord, Lord Empey, said, it is extraordinary that, rather being told to look at what you really need, you are told, “You have exactly this amount of money. Stick within it”. I understand that it is important that something has to be affordable, but there needs to be a balance.

The SDR is necessary for our Government for a number of reasons—not least to ascertain how bad things have become, because I do not think we were given full visibility of how bad they were—but I do not think that anyone with the slightest knowledge of defence could believe anything other than that there is a pressing need for an enhanced budget now. It is quite clear that our forces have been hollowed out and that enhancement needs to come with immediate effect, not least for infrastructure, training, replenishment of spares and weapons stock.

Planning for a structure and force levels for a future conflict is all well and good, but the enemy has a vote too—we must not forget that—and he might not want to wait until we are perfectly prepared to fight him. He may well punch you on the nose before that. In fact, my experience of warfare is that that is exactly what they do. The huge pressure on government resources is recognised—obviously there are real problems—but if the defence and security of our nation and people is the first and most important duty of any Government, it rather trumps any other spending at the time when the risk becomes so great.

It is important that the review does not ignore the fact that we are an island nation. In the final analysis, our nation’s wealth and survival depends on the maritime, as it has done for centuries. The loss of open access to the sea would be catastrophic. So much of our security and wealth is linked to the maritime, not just merchant shipping, which we run from London. There are the fibre-optic cables running on the seabed, as mentioned by the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Peach, transacting the vast bulk of global business. Offshore oil and gas infrastructure and gas pipelines are critical to this nation’s energy supplies. Continental powerlines and offshore wind farms ensure that we have sufficient electrical supplies, with a huge demand for electricity coming down the track.

The review has been directed to ensure the primacy of the NATO alliance in our defence posture. This makes absolute sense, but we should be clear that the most important contribution the UK makes to NATO is maritime forces. The case for enhancement and investment in the Royal Navy is made even more compelling by the strength of European NATO allies on land and in the air and the limits of their strength at sea. The accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO and Poland’s army expansion programme alone will see 20 extra brigades and 120 fast jets added to NATO’s terrestrial and air strength. There is no such naval growth.

The UK leads and should continue to lead efforts to enact sea control in the Euro-Atlantic to protect Britain and Europe’s maritime lifelines in support of NATO. The inherent mobility and flexibility of sea power means that the forces doing those NATO jobs can contribute to sea denial in the Indo-Pacific and the mouth of the Gulf, confronting Iran, as well as to deterring the PRC from using military power.

To protect the UK and NATO interests, and to help to uphold international order at sea, the Royal Navy requires ships, submarines, clear planning of industrial war potential, shipbuilding, weapons supply chains and enhancements to platform survivability and lethality. To encapsulate that, I will, believe it or not, yet again say: more ships.

Tempest Global Combat Air Programme

Lord West of Spithead Excerpts

Tuesday 23rd July 2024 Lords Chamber

Asked by

[Lord West of Spithead]

To ask His Majesty’s Government whether the Tempest Global Combat Air Programme will be halted until the Strategic Defence Review is completed and its future decided.

[The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Lord Coaker) (Lab)]

No, GCAP will not be halted, in answer to my noble friend. Progress continues. I met partners yesterday at Farnborough, as did the Prime Minister, emphasising its importance. The Defence Secretary met Ministers from Italy and Japan today to discuss developments, including economic growth and skills, and business will be taken through by SI in the next few days, subject to Parliament’s agreement, to implement the GCAP convention.

[Lord West of Spithead (Lab)]

I thank my noble friend the Minister for his Answer. Of course, I understand that the mechanism of this programme has to move ahead, not least for diplomatic and political reasons, but would he assure me that, in the context of the strategic defence review, nothing is off the table, apart from the fact that we maintain a nuclear deterrent? That was what was said, effectively—so everything will be looked at. There must be serious concerns about the operational requirement for this system, which is not clearly articulated. How many platforms will be required, finally, and how many aircraft? That is not articulated. The costs are pretty open, I have to say, and it really does need to be looked at.

[Lord Coaker (Lab)]

My Lords, I thank my noble friend for his important Question. The strategic defence review is a root-and-branch review to look at the capabilities that our Armed Forces will need as they meet the threats of a changing world. It will look at defence in the round—and, of course, it will look at programmes across the whole of defence. Can I just pick up on one point from my noble friend? As he says, in the review we do emphasise the importance of the deterrent as well as support for Ukraine and AUKUS.