Defence Spending

Tuesday 6th January 2026 Lords Chamber

Question

14:56

Asked by

[Lord West of Spithead]

To ask His Majesty’s Government whether the military Chiefs of Staff have expressed concern over in-year defence spending.

[The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Lord Coaker) (Lab)]

My Lords, Defence is collectively working to deliver the strategic defence review as a deliverable and affordable plan, backed by historic funding increases. Further detail will follow in the defence investment plan. All the Chiefs of Staff are fully engaged in that planning, as they are in the routine budget management exercises that ensure we can respond appropriately in-year to the changing nature of the threats that we face.

[Lord West of Spithead (Lab)]

My Lords, our nation is standing into danger. I do not need to articulate the dangerous geopolitical situation that we are in, and which is getting worse. I think people understand that, and they believe that we need to spend more on defence. Unfortunately, there is no urgency in that. For example, the defence investment plan, which was just mentioned, is already six months late. Does my noble friend the Minister—who I think understands these issues but whose hands are rather tied, judging by that Answer, on what he can say—agree that wars do not wait until the nations involved are ready? In an era of might is right, we need to grasp the nettle and seriously increase our defence spending today, not in the weeks and years to come. Then perhaps we can rebuild the Armed Forces and some of the might that is required.

[Lord Coaker (Lab)]

I agree with much of what my noble friend says about the threat that we face and the need for us to respond appropriately. All I would say is that we are increasing defence spending. My noble friend asked about the chiefs, and I will quote directly from the speech the Chief of the Defence Staff gave just a few weeks ago, in December. He said that he was looking at the greatest “sustained” rise

“in defence spending since the … Cold War”.

That is enormously positive. We are trying to respond to the threats that we face today, and there will be debates about how much we spend. My noble friend refers to the defence investment plan. It was due to be published by the end of the year, not six months ago, and we are looking to publish it as soon as we can. We want to make sure that the investment choices that we make within it are the right choices for ensuring that we have the capabilities we need now, as well as in the future.

[Lord Bruce of Bennachie (LD)]

My Lords, can I press the Minister on why the investment plan has been delayed for so long? Is it because there is disagreement within the Government about its affordability and how we can develop our capacity if we were to reduce dependence on Americans and yet have walked away from joint procurement with the EU, which Canada has joined, and we have rejected?

[Lord Coaker (Lab)]

The noble Lord often raises capability and defence investment in our industry. One of the challenges we faced was the fact that our industries have declined. Much of the ability of defence infrastructure to produce the things that we need has gone, and the Government are trying to do something about that. We have announced new munitions factories and we have got the defence investment plan coming. We are trying to recognise that, in order to fight wars now and those which may come in the future, we need a defence industry which has the capacity to deliver the equipment and goods that we need.

[Lord Harper (Con)]

My Lords, the defence industry will judge the Government not by the promises they have made—which the Chief of the Defence Staff welcomed, as the Minister mentioned—but on what they actually deliver. One of the ways that will be judged, for example, is when we see the defence investment plan. When I asked the Minister about this on 8 December, he said Ministers were working hard to deliver it by the end of the year; that deadline has passed. I heard the answer that he gave to the noble Lord, Lord West of Spithead, but can he give us some more detail? When are the Government aiming to do that—by the end of the month, or the end of the quarter? If they do not start delivering, people will think their promises are just words, not actions.

[Lord Coaker (Lab)]

I understand the challenge that the noble Lord makes, but I cannot give him a specific time—next week or by the end of the month—by which it will be published. We are determined, through the defence investment plan, to make sure that we get this right; that we make the right choices and that we do not have a situation where, in order to meet some timetable, we produce a defence investment plan that does not enable us to have the war-fighting capability that we need. The noble Lord challenged me to say what we are doing at the moment. The CDEL budget in 2024-25 is £22.7 billion. In 2028-29 it will be £31.5 billion, which is nearly £10 billion more. The total DEL budget was £60.2 billion in 2025 and in 2028-29 it will be £73.5 billion. There are billions of pounds of additional investment, much of which we hope to be spent in our own country, with our own industry.

[Lord Mountevans (CB)]

Can the Minister assure the House that, notwithstanding all that we have heard, we are fully up to speed with the commitments to be made to deliver them within the right time going forward? That is very important post Brexit, with all the threats, as we know, to the rules-based order.

[Lord Coaker (Lab)]

We are certainly trying to do exactly as the noble Lord says: to deliver properly, effectively and coherently on the choices that we face within the defence investment plan. Whatever we increase the budget to, there will always be debates on where that should be invested and what choices we make within that. We want to make sure that we get those right. On Europe and the alliances, the noble Lord will know that we are trying to work more closely with our European colleagues and have strengthened bilateral relationships with a number of countries, not least Germany, France and Poland.

[Baroness Smith of Newnham (LD)]

My Lords, investment is clearly vital, and it is obviously welcome that the Government are willing to spend more on defence, but this House needs to be reassured that the expenditure is going to come and that the capabilities will be in place in such a manner that we will be able to act more as a middle-ranking power, not a diminishing power. Do His Majesty’s Government believe that they are going in the right direction and that we will be able to play a full and effective role in NATO?

[Lord Coaker (Lab)]

We certainly will. I will not have our country categorised as a middle-ranking power or a diminishing power. I just do not believe that, and I do not think that the noble Baroness does either. She is quite right to challenge us on investment; we need the investment that I have outlined in the answers that I have given. I know she supports that investment, and I look forward to working with her, and collectively across this House, to ensure that we have the capacity and the capabilities we need to play the full and proper role in NATO that she and I support.

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

My Lords, the Government have stated, encouragingly and repeatedly, that defence is a number one priority, but there is a current budget black hole in the MoD of £2.6 billion, defence industry partners are being starved of essential orders, the Autumn Budget was deafeningly silent on how we reach the spend of 3% in the next Parliament, and the defence investment plan is taking longer than an elephant’s pregnancy. That is a bizarre reflection of priority. Can the Minister, with his legendary bonhomie, shine any light on this gloom?

[Lord Coaker (Lab)]

The noble Baroness will first have to tell me how long an elephant’s pregnancy is— I have absolutely no idea whether that is good news or bad news, and I do not know whether anybody else does.

The noble Baroness makes a serious point, challenging the Government on the defence investment plan. I say to this House and to the noble Baroness, who I know takes a keen interest and is very supportive of defence overall, that the defence investment plan will be published when we are in a position to have made the necessary choices to deliver the war-fighting readiness that we want and the capability to fight if we need to, now, in the middle term and in the long term. There are in-year choices that we are dealing with, and the chiefs are fully involved in the discussion and debate on how we take that forward.

[Lord Stirrup (CB)]

My Lords, the noble Lord, Lord Livermore, who I am pleased to see has just taken his place, said in answer to a previous Question in this House that any increase in the defence budget beyond 2.5% is a matter for the next Parliament and anything beyond 3% is a matter for the Parliament beyond that. Does the Minister realise that this is a wholly irresponsible attitude? If we are to achieve 3.5% of GDP on defence by 2035 in a sensible, graduated manner that expands the defence industrial base in this country at a sensible pace, along with military capability, we need a plan for doing it now, and it needs to start today, not in 2030.

[Lord Coaker (Lab)]

The noble and gallant Lord will know the Government’s position, as laid out by the noble Lord, Lord Livermore. We have a plan for the achievement of 2.6%; we have the ambition of 3%. It was remarkable for the Prime Minister to say at The Hague that we will have a commitment of 3.5%, with an overall commitment on defence and security of 5%. That is an important step forward and an important statement by the Government on their ambition for defence spending, and one that I look forward to us trying to keep.