Budget Responsibility Bill

Jim Shannon Excerpts

2nd reading
Tuesday 30th July 2024 Commons Chamber

[The Chief Secretary to the Treasury (Darren Jones)]

I beg to move, That the Bill be now read a Second time.

I congratulate you and welcome you to your place in the Chair, Madam Deputy Speaker. It is a privilege to open this debate in my first appearance at the Dispatch Box as a Minister in this new Labour Government.

At the general election, the British people voted for change, and this new Labour Government began work immediately to deliver on that mandate. Sustained growth is the only route to the improved prosperity that this country needs and to improve the living standards of the British people. After 14 years of Conservative failure, this work is urgent—it is now our national mission. To deliver on that mission, as my right hon. Friend the Chancellor set out days after taking office, we must fix the foundations of the economy and restore economic stability. She emphasised that commitment to delivering economic stability by meeting with the Office for Budget Responsibility soon after becoming Chancellor.

Under the legal framework we inherited from the Conservative party, there is no requirement on the Treasury to subject fiscally significant announcements to independent OBR scrutiny. We all experienced what happens when huge unfunded fiscal commitments are made without proper scrutiny and key economic institutions such as the OBR are sidelined. The country cannot afford a repeat of the calamitous mini-Budget of September 2022, when Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s reckless plans unleashed economic turmoil that has loaded hundreds of pounds on to people’s mortgages and rents. Conservative Ministers put ideology before sound public money and party before country.

This Labour Government are turning the page: we will always put the country first and party second. Our commitment to fiscal discipline and sound money will never waver. That is why we are firmly committed to the independence of the OBR, and to the important principle that in normal times, the announcement of a fiscally significant measure should always be accompanied by an independent assessment of its economic and fiscal implications, in order to support transparency and accountability. That is why we made a commitment in our manifesto to strengthen the role of the OBR, and it is why we have acted quickly to deliver on that commitment today.

This action will reinforce credibility and trust by preventing large-scale unfunded commitments that are not subject to an independent fiscal assessment. As Richard Hughes, the chair of the OBR, reiterated in his recent letter to the Chancellor,

“it is a good principle of fiscal policymaking that major fiscal decisions should be based upon, and presented alongside, an up-to-date view of the economic and fiscal outlook”.

In line with this, the Chancellor yesterday commissioned a full forecast to accompany our Budget on 30 October, following the important principle that significant fiscal policy decisions should be made at a fiscal event and accompanied by an independent OBR assessment. That fiscal lock is an essential part of our mission to deliver economic stability. It is one of our first steps towards fixing the foundations of the economy, and it is our guarantee to the British people that this Labour Government are a responsible Government who will never play fast and loose with public and family finances, as the Conservative party has done before.

The Bill sets the legal framework for the operation of the fiscal lock. It builds on the Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act 2011, which established the OBR. In line with that, the technical detail underpinning the fiscal lock will be set out via an upcoming update to the charter for budget responsibility. The charter sets out the Government’s fiscal framework, including guidance on how the OBR performs its duties within that framework. To support scrutiny of the Bill during its passage through Parliament, the Treasury has published a draft of the relevant charter text, which will make clear exactly how the Government plan to implement the fiscal lock. A full update to the charter will be published in due course, and Members will vote on it in the usual way.

The Bill itself does five things to ensure that proper scrutiny of fiscal plans will take place. First, it requires the Treasury, before the Government make any fiscally significant announcement in Parliament, to request that the OBR presents an assessment taking the announcement into account. This builds on the usual process whereby the Chancellor commissions the OBR for an economic and fiscal forecast to accompany a fiscal event. It guarantees in law that, from now on, every fiscally significant change to tax and spending will be subject to scrutiny by the independent OBR.

Secondly, the Bill gives the OBR new powers to independently decide to produce an assessment if they judge that the fiscal lock has been triggered. If a fiscally significant announcement is made without the Treasury having previously requested a forecast from the OBR, the OBR is required to inform the Treasury Committee of its opinion and then prepare an assessment as soon as is practicable. That means that, come what may, the OBR, through Parliament, will be able to hold the Government to account.

Thirdly, the Bill defines a measure, or combination of measures, as “fiscally significant” if they exceed a specified percentage of GDP, with the charter then setting the precise threshold itself. Setting the threshold in this way provides clarity for both the OBR and external stakeholders about what constitutes a “fiscally significant announcement”—that is, when the fiscal lock has been triggered—and it ensures that the Government can set it at the right level going forward, recognising economic conditions. The threshold level will be set at announcements of at least 1% of nominal GDP in the latest OBR forecast. As an example, this year the 1% threshold would be £28 billion. This will ensure that we properly capture any announcements that resemble the growth plan of former Members Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng in 2022, with the broader risks to macroeconomic stability that this entailed.

Fourthly, the Bill ensures that the fiscal lock does not apply to Governments responding to emergencies, such as the covid-19 pandemic. The Bill does so by not applying in respect of measures that are intended to have a temporary effect and which are in response to an emergency. The charter will define “temporary” as any measure that is intended to end within two years. This recognises that it is sometimes reasonable—for example during a pandemic—for the Government to act quickly and decisively without an OBR assessment, if that is needed in response to a shock. Of course, in emergencies it may be appropriate for the Chancellor to commission a forecast from the OBR to follow measures that needed to be announced or implemented rapidly, and that would happen in the usual way. Alongside any such announcement, the Treasury will be required to make it clear why it considers the situation to be an emergency. As set out in the updated charter, the OBR will have the discretion to trigger the fiscal lock and prepare a report if it reasonably disagrees.

Fifthly and finally, the Bill requires the Government to publish any updates to the detail of the fiscal lock—such as the threshold level at which it is triggered—in draft form at least 28 days before the updated charter is laid before Parliament. This is an essential safeguard in the Bill, preventing any future Government from choosing to ignore the fiscal lock by updating the charter without the consent of Parliament.

[Jim Shannon (Strangford) (DUP)]

The Minister is setting out the stark realities of where we are financially, which it is important that we all understand. Given that the financial positions of all of us within the United Kingdom could be fairly dramatically changed, regionally, it will be important that discussions with the Northern Ireland Assembly, the Welsh Assembly and the Scottish Parliament take place early enough for the impacts of what might happen to be better understood.

[Darren Jones]

I thank the hon. Gentleman for his contribution. As I am sure he knows, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury is traditionally the lead Minister in Government for relationships with the Finance Ministers in the devolved Governments. I have already met a number of times with counterparts in the Northern Ireland Executive, as well as those in Scotland and Wales. I look forward to meeting them in person in Northern Ireland, I hope in September, for further such discussions.

To conclude, people across the country are still suffering the consequences of the Conservative party’s economic experiment in 2022. Conservative Ministers took the most reckless decisions without any thought for their real-life impact on the British economy and on family finances. Astonishingly, they have still made no apology.

With this Labour Government, our commitment to fiscal discipline and sound money is the bedrock of our plans. The Budget Responsibility Bill guarantees in law that, from now on, every fiscally significant change to tax and spending will be subject to scrutiny by the independent OBR. The Bill will reinforce credibility and trust by preventing large-scale unfunded commitments that are not subject to the scrutiny of an OBR fiscal assessment. This delivers on a key manifesto commitment to provide economic stability and sound public finances by strengthening the role of the independent OBR. This is a crucial first step to fix the foundations in our economy, so that we can achieve sustained economic growth and make every part of the country better off.

For those reasons, I commend the Bill to the House.

--- Later in debate ---

[Jim Shannon (Strangford) (DUP)]

It is a pleasure to follow the hon. Member for Kettering (Rosie Wrighting). I wish her well in her new role. She brings youth with her, but also experience of how life is. That is important when it comes to representing people here.

It is lovely to see you in your place, Madam Deputy Speaker. I wish you well in your new role—well done. We have been incredibly blessed today with all the maiden speeches we have heard. Each Member showed their talent, skill and clear love of their constituency. We are all greatly encouraged. As I said to the hon. Member for Ceredigion Preseli (Ben Lake), we have seen MPs who will bring a lot to the debates we have in this Chamber, whether on the Department for Work and Pensions, roads, farming, fishing, bigger issues such as human rights around the world, or whatever it might be. Each MP will bring their expertise and their point of view, which will enrich this House and encourage us, so I am pleased to have heard those speeches. It is a real pleasure and a privilege for me to sit and hear them.

I commend the hon. Member for Ynys Môn (Llinos Medi). I loved the wee thing she said at the end about her can-do attitude. Every one of us can do in this House. The hon. Lady has told us we can do, so I think we can do from now on. I look forward to working with everyone on the things we can agree on. The issue for many of us in this House is not our differences. I suppose I maybe look at things in a slightly different way, but I do not often see the politics; I see the person. If we do that, we can see the goodness that we can all bring to the debates here.

I am very pleased that you have allowed me the opportunity to speak briefly about the Bill, Madam Deputy Speaker. I will not take too long. I was pleased to see the additional brake or fiscal lock, as it is clear that Governments should take cognisance of high-level support and opinion. I believe the Bill will secure just that. The Minister and the Labour Government are bringing the Bill forward for the best reasons, which is welcome, and I am very pleased to see it.

However, I do believe that advice should be considered here. It is the role of Governments to do what is right, with a total vision for the country, and we must always ensure that the decisions are made in this House by elected representatives and not by unelected Members behind closed doors. I know that our Government and our Minister will be aware of the need to strike a balance between taking reasoned opinion and taking instruction, and I know the Minister will take that on board. He has always spoken in a reasoned way in the House and I know that he will not be found wanting today when he gives his reasoned opinion at the end of the debate.

I firmly believe in the need for the OBR’s opinion. The reason for that will be clear when we consider the political motivation that seeks to force the Government to spend more than £300 million on Casement Park in Northern Ireland, which could plainly necessitate tax increases because no part of the budget will allow the money to be allocated. I hope the Government will not pursue the project, and wanted to put that on the record.

As I said yesterday following the Chancellor’s statement, I welcome the news that junior doctors will receive their much-needed pay rise. I do not think anyone in this nation will not be encouraged to know that they will receive the increase that we all think they should have. The Government have made that money available, and hopefully it will go in the right direction. The junior doctors’ pay rise is a necessity, and the changes that will be necessary to generate it can be easily understood. Not one of us does not owe our NHS a vast thank you for all it has done.

When we were living through covid, many of us lost family members and loved ones, and we will be eternally grateful for the role that the NHS played. What is not so easily understood is why the tax paid by the average person in Warrington or Wrexham may be increased to fund a Gaelic Athletic Association project—I am referring, again, to Casement Park—which will generate income for a private sporting body, to the exclusion of other sports. I leave that comment on the record. The drive for this is political, not practical, and I hope that the OBR would express the reasoned view that raising taxes for such purposes does not instil confidence in the financial future of the nation.

I hope the Bill will remind Members that every project we undertake must be paid for from the public purse, in these times when the average person is struggling to lead his or her life, in contrast to the position five years ago. The hon. Member for Richmond Park (Sarah Olney) spoke earlier about poverty across this great United Kingdom. In my constituency poverty levels have risen dramatically, especially among children. I can honestly say, for the record, that I confidently believe that the Labour Government and the Minister will address these issues throughout this great United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland for the children in my constituency who are experiencing levels of poverty that they have never experienced before, and the adults who struggle to pay their bills—every Member has brought an illustration of that to the debate—so I am encouraged to see the Labour party in the role it now has.

We have holes in the economy in Northern Ireland as a result of under-investment. Our pay structures need to be revamped and our education sector needs improvements to deal with the changing needs of our children. I am thinking in particular of those with special educational needs and disabilities. I remember having meetings about that with a Minister back home in Northern Ireland, and I am hopeful that some of the changes that we talked about have been implemented, but I am seeing demands on SEND education that I have never seen before in all my years as an elected representative—as a councillor, and as a Member of the Northern Ireland Assembly. Our health sector needs an overhaul as well, and all this will take central funding, but we also need a change in the way that happens. We do not need massively high levels of middle management, and we do not need agency staff when we could give our nurses a 10% pay increase that would be cheaper than employing those staff. These are things that we need to change.

Earlier, in an intervention, I asked the Minister about the Northern Ireland Assembly, the Welsh Assembly and the Scottish Parliament. The Minister kindly confirmed that he would have a role involving integration and interaction with the regional Administrations. I am particularly encouraged that he will be visiting Northern Ireland, and the Assembly, in September this year. That shows me that the Minister—my Minister here, through the Labour Government— says what he means and will carry it out, which is good news—I welcome that. Culture and heritage are also important, but they can never take precedence over heart operations or chemotherapy. No debate on budget responsibility can overlook this foundational aspect. I hope that this will serve as a timely reminder to us all that we have responsibilities in this House that outweigh party politics. That must always be the first decision that we make in this House.

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Ms Ghani)]

I call Matthew Patrick to make his maiden speech.