Oral Answers to Questions
Geraint Davies Excerpts(12 years, 1 month ago)
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The Solicitor-General
As soon as the new criminal law comes into effect, it will of course be up to the police to provide the Crown Prosecution Service with the evidence upon which prosecutions can be progressed, but my hon. Friend makes a good general point, which will be followed up.
Geraint Davies (Swansea West) (Lab/Co-op)
7. What recent assessment he has made of the performance of the Crown Prosecution Service.
The Attorney-General (Mr Dominic Grieve)
The Crown Prosecution Service operates a robust performance management framework with 10 key performance measures. They address case work outcomes, together with performance relating to finance, efficiency and people. Over the past 12 months, performance has improved according to nine measures and declined according to two.
Geraint Davies
Only one in 10 rapes are reported to the police, and only one in 15 of those reports lead to a conviction. How does the Attorney-General expect a 25% cut in resources for the CPS to increase the number of cases reported, or indeed the number of convictions?
The Attorney-General
I understand the hon. Gentleman’s question, but as I have told the House on numerous occasions, domestic violence and rape matters have remained a top priority for the CPS, and at present I have no reason to believe that the result of any changes in its funding will alter its ability to prosecute people successfully for such offences. If there are instances that the hon. Gentleman wishes to bring to my attention, I shall of course be happy to meet him.
Oral Answers to Questions
Geraint Davies Excerpts(12 years, 3 months ago)
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Mr Speaker
Order. There is far too much noise. We can scarcely hear the Minister’s answers, which is unfair on the Minister and unfair on the House.
Geraint Davies (Swansea West) (Lab/Co-op)
T4. Sixty per cent. of Welsh Government public procurement contracts are awarded to SMEs, half of which are in Wales. In England the figure is less than 10%. Given that SMEs invest more in local jobs, pay more tax and create more growth, what is the Minister doing to ensure that SMEs get business in England, instead of the money being siphoned off abroad?
Mr Maude
We are radically reforming procurement to cut the cost to businesses. Bidding for public sector contracts has been far too expensive, both for the taxpayer and for bidders, and it is entirely right to say that too many SMEs have simply been frozen out of the process. We are determined to open that up and to enable more SMEs, which will tend to be UK-based, to bid successfully.
The Prime Minister
My hon. Friend raises an important point. Since the introduction of the cancer drugs fund under this Government, 10,000 more people have been able to get cancer drugs, which are so essential. Let me tell the House one thing that would really damage cancer treatment in this country—it is the proposal from the Labour party to cap at 5% any private sector involvement in our hospitals. The Royal Marsden, one of the best cancer hospitals in the country, would have to cut by a quarter the services that it delivers. What a crazy, left-wing plan, which only the Leader of the Opposition could come up with.
Geraint Davies (Swansea West) (Lab/Co-op)
Q3. In three months’ time, just before the Olympics, Abu Qatada, a truly dangerous man, will be roaming the streets of London with his mobile phone and internet access, thanks to the Prime Minister’s having abolished control orders and house arrest provisions. How can the Prime Minister justify putting the public’s right to life at risk to give over to the Liberal Democrats on their demands to abolish control orders? It is disgusting.
G20
Geraint Davies Excerpts(12 years, 6 months ago)
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The Prime Minister
My hon. Friend makes an important point, but that is quite a difficult ask, because there is of course important ongoing work on contingency plans, but the more we discuss and speculate on the nature of another country’s currency and economy, the more we could damage their interests. So, I will think carefully about what he says, but it might be difficult to air some of those issues in public.
Geraint Davies (Swansea West) (Lab/Co-op)
The Prime Minister knows that the IMF currently gives 32.4 billion special drawing rights—about £32 billion—to the eurozone to prop it up, so how can he justify giving more British taxpayers’ money to the eurozone via the IMF when there are people starving in Africa and people cannot pay their heating bills in Britain?
The Prime Minister
No country has ever lost money lending it to the IMF. The IMF is, in a globalised world, a vital institution for supporting countries that get into deep economic distress, and, if we were to walk away from it and just to allow trading partners—in the eurozone or outside—to collapse with no one to help them, that would mean British jobs lost and British businesses going bust. It might give you a five-second soundbite on the news in order to try to give you some political advantage, but it would be completely irresponsible.
Libya
Geraint Davies Excerpts(12 years, 8 months ago)
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The Prime Minister
Like my hon. Friend, I feel that this is an extremely important issue for the bilateral relationship between Britain and Libya. At the Paris conference, I spoke to Prime Minister Jibril about this issue and told him how important it was to people in our country. It was an appalling act and a reminder of what the Gaddafi regime was capable of. We should put it alongside the provision of Semtex to the IRA that took hundreds of lives and the appalling act of blowing up an airliner over the skies of Scotland. This regime was capable of appalling things and now there is a chance to find justice for these people. We should pursue that very strongly.
Geraint Davies (Swansea West) (Lab/Co-op)
I welcome the Prime Minister’s statement and the end—hopefully—of Gaddafi, but given that we are in the aftermath of what in many respects was a civil war, how comfortable is he with a 20-month time frame for the delivery of a new constitution and elections? What measures will be put in place to protect human and political rights, including on freedom of movement and international observers?
The Prime Minister
I believe that the timetable is realistic. The key issue is whether we have faith in the NTC. I have found, throughout my dealings with Prime Minister Jibril and Chairman Jalil, both of whom I have met on a number of occasions, that they want this to be a national process, representing the whole country and bringing the country together, that they want it to be transitional—this is a move towards democracy, not a takeover—and that they see Libya in the future not in an Islamist or tribal fashion, but as a democracy. Clearly, it will have Islamic elements—it is a Muslim country—but that is the path that its people want to take and one that we can encourage them down.
Phone Hacking
Geraint Davies Excerpts(12 years, 10 months ago)
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The Prime Minister
Of course, relationships that have become unhealthy between some police officers and some media organisations are not just a problem in the Met, but as the Met is our premium and biggest force, I think that if it starts the process of not only transparency but the culture change that is necessary, that would set a good example to others.
Geraint Davies (Swansea West) (Lab/Co-op)
In light of the information available to the Prime Minister on phone hacking, what techniques does he anticipate will be used to pressurise Ofcom over its decision as to whether Rupert and James Murdoch are fit and proper persons to run News International and BSkyB, and what action will he take to prevent any such intimidation?
The Prime Minister
The “fit and proper” test is a matter for Ofcom; it has to carry that out. It is right in this country that we do not ask individual politicians to make those individual decisions about who is fit and proper. We have also asked the Competition Commission to look at this issue. There is a separate issue, too: we need to allow Ofcom to make a “fit and proper” test at the point of full acquisition. That is a particular detail that we need to look at for the future.
Oral Answers to Questions
Geraint Davies Excerpts(12 years, 10 months ago)
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The Prime Minister
I understand why my hon. Friend wants to raise this case, and on behalf of the whole House let me send our condolences to Mrs Kaur’s family. I fully understand and support their wish for justice to be brought to bear on the perpetrators. The Foreign Office has been providing the family with consular support, as my hon. Friend knows, and they will arrange to meet him and the family to see what further assistance we can give. However, responsibility for investigating crime committed overseas must rest with the police and judicial authorities in that country. We cannot interfere in the processes, but I take his point to heart.
Geraint Davies (Swansea West) (Lab/Co-op)
Q2. We know that the deficit was the price paid to avoid a depression caused by the bankers, but in March the forecast for the budget deficit was increased by £46 billion—£1,000 per person. Will the Prime Minister now at last accept that cuts are choking growth, that VAT is stoking inflation and that both are increasing the deficit? He is going too far, too fast, and he is hindering, not helping, the recovery. Yes or no?
The Prime Minister
The deficit is the price paid for Labour’s profligacy in office. In his memoirs, Tony Blair said—[Interruption.] I know that Labour Members do not want to hear about Tony Blair any more, and that is funny, really. He was a Labour leader who used to win elections, so they might want to listen to him. He said that by 2007, spending was out of control. That is the point. We need to get on top of spending, on top of debt and on top of the deficit. I understand that the Labour leader is trying to persuade the shadow Chancellor of that—well, good luck to him!
House of Lords Reform (Draft Bill)
Geraint Davies Excerpts(12 years, 11 months ago)
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The Deputy Prime Minister
In many respects the provisions of Lord Steel’s Bill are in part covered by the proposals that we are putting forward. For instance, one of the central planks of his Bill is that there should be an independent statutory appointments commission. That is exactly what is envisaged in this Bill. Another part of Lord Steel’s Bill provides for retirement of existing Members of the House of Lords. That has been taken up by the Leader of the Lords already. I do not think the ideas in Lord Steel’s Bill are incompatible with the longer-term reforms that we are proposing today.
Geraint Davies (Swansea West) (Lab/Co-op)
How can someone elected for 15 years be democratically accountable if they cannot stand for election again?
The Deputy Prime Minister
As I said earlier, every time that has been looked at on a cross-party basis, the conclusion has been reached that in order to entrench rather than undermine the difference between the other place and this House, it is best to do so by giving any elected Members of a reformed House of Lords a long, non-renewable term so that they are not subject to the normal short-term temptations of party politics, to which some of us might be subject in this place.
United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973
Geraint Davies Excerpts(13 years, 1 month ago)
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Mr Michael Meacher (Oldham West and Royton) (Lab)
It is clear that without UN resolution 1973, there would have been appalling blood-letting in Benghazi. It is also clear that this is not another Iraq, because there is legitimate UN authority for action and there will be no occupying army. It is highly significant that the support has been gained, at least up to now, of the 23 members of the Arab League.
Having said that, and recognising that action of this kind invariably involves high risks, there are several issues on which this House and the British people want assurances. First, although the UN resolution is unquestionably strong, it focuses on the protection of civilians, as the Prime Minister declared repeatedly today. However desirable the end of Gaddafi may be, regime change is explicitly not covered by resolution 1973, contrary to the unfortunate impression that the Defence Secretary has given in a number of interviews that I have heard. There is always a risk of mission creep in matters of this kind, but if we are to retain the support of the wide coalition that has been assembled, it is vital that we are seen to keep strictly to the terms of the resolution and that we do not seek to put interpretations on it that suit our convenience.
A second concern is over the planning for the outcome of the conflict, which certainly did not happen in Iraq. As has been said, there could be a quick collapse if the Libyan military turns against Gaddafi, or there could be a long stalemate if the regime not only declares a ceasefire but observes it and holds on to what it retains in western and southern Libya. In either case, it is unclear at the moment—I wonder whether it is clear to the Government—how any intended outcome will be achieved. If Gaddafi is deposed or killed, given the strong tribal structure in Libya, what is to prevent the country from descending into civil war? How will law and order be imposed in such circumstances, particularly if the Libyan military retains its loyalty to the old regime—as some of it will—and refuses to do a deal with the rebels?
On the other hand, if Gaddafi is forced to end hostilities by the overwhelming force of allied air power, which is very likely, and opts to stay put in western Libya, what then? Will the words “all necessary measures” allow us to sidestep the arms embargo and channel arms to the rebels to enable them to carry on the fight, as the right hon. and learned Member for Kensington (Sir Malcolm Rifkind) suggested earlier? The Prime Minister said on Friday that the resolution’s
“very strong language…allows states to take a number of military steps to protect people and harm those who are intending to damage civilians.”—[Official Report, 18 March 2011; Vol. 525, c. 623.]
But that cannot possibly justify arming one side when the other is observing a ceasefire. Equally, using superior allied air power to knock out Libyan army strongpoints if the rebels were to advance on Tripoli would be way outside the essentially defensive context of the UN resolution. In those circumstances, how would the stalemate be broken?
The third problem, which others have mentioned, is that of maintaining the all-important support of the Arab League, and not only during the initial ferocity of the allied onslaught.
Geraint Davies (Swansea West) (Lab/Co-op)
Would my right hon. Friend be sympathetic in theory to the idea of a future UN resolution giving authority to an Arab-led UN force, spearheaded by the Egyptians and the Turks, as a peacekeeping transition force to solve some of the problems that he has mentioned after the first episodes have concluded?
Mr Meacher
There is nothing to stop those countries joining a coalition now, and I am not at all sure that it requires a further UN resolution. I have to say, I think such a result is unlikely.
The continued support of Amr Moussa, the secretary-general of the Arab League, is critical to the allied claim that this is not just another western war against a Muslim country in the Arab world, but rather action against a tyrant who has lost all regional backing and whose people are rising up against him. There are already ominous signs that Mr Moussa’s support may be wobbling, on the ground that the Arab League saw the UN resolution as an essentially defensive concept. The Arab League must not only be continually consulted but actually listened to, and its needs and demands must be taken account of in allied action.
My last point concerns the precedent that is being set. Of course every case is different, but the western powers and the UN did not intervene when there were arguably much stronger cases for it in Rwanda, in the Shi’ite uprisings against Saddam in southern Iraq in 1991 or in the three-week war and extensive killing in Gaza. As many Members have asked, where will the new doctrine this time around lead?
The argument about selectivity and the application of moral principles has been widely voiced in the middle east. If protecting civilians against a dictator who is seeking bloodily to suppress demand for democratic reform is the prevailing policy, how can that doctrine not be applied to interventions in Bahrain, Yemen, Algeria or elsewhere? That question has been asked repeatedly, but it has not received an answer.
Those are all difficult questions, but I submit that it is better that they be faced up to now, before the initial jingoism—an unpleasant sensation that is being pushed in some of the media—perhaps gives way to dismay and disarray in the weeks and months ahead.
Geraint Davies (Swansea West) (Lab/Co-op)
I support the UN no-fly zone and the early intervention to take out Gaddafi’s machinery for the mass slaughter of hundreds of thousands of near-defenceless civilians without apology. The world could not stand by as Gaddafi used air power, tanks and soldiers to inflict wholesale massacre on those fighting for a peaceful, democratic future for Libya. UN resolution 1973, which sanctions the use of “all necessary measures” to protect civilians, needs to destroy Gaddafi’s military assets. We need to take out the tiger’s teeth.
I appreciate that some members of the Arab League fear that this could turn into a western invasion—some sort of neo-colonial crusade—but they and we need to remember that the authorisation of this resolution is specific and does not include that sort of invasion. We should work hand in hand with the Arab League with sensitivity to recent history. I also appreciate that we need an endgame in mind and a means to deliver that end game, but it is necessary to disarm that despot, who is intent on mass murder, even if we simply withdraw after that. If we did not have an endgame, but stopped the mass murder and then withdrew—not something that I would advocate—that would be better than simply standing aside and doing nothing, saying, “We don’t have an endgame, so let them die.”
The ultimate endgame would, of course, lead to a Libya at peace with itself, with a new constitutional settlement involving and embracing all its communities. However, that settlement must emerge over time from within, informed by Libyans at home and abroad. I certainly take the view that we parliamentarians should consult our Libyan constituents and communities, the Arab nations and the Arab League about our actions and about the shape of a Libyan future that embraces different communities—different ethnically, racially, and by gender—now, rather than later. Let us remember, however, that a United Nations resolution does not sanction ground forces delivering regime change, and certainly western ground troops would play into Gaddafi’s hands; their use would be seen as a grab for oil and as neo-colonialism.
We have talked this evening about United Nations action leading to stalemate. What would happen then? I have consulted quite closely a large Libyan community in Swansea, and they—or some of them, at least—are calling for an Arab-led peacekeeping force, probably spearheaded by the Egyptian army and the Turkish under a United Nations flag, after the disarming process to maintain the peace and oversee a transition. Obviously, that would need a further United Nations resolution, but it is something that we need to bear in mind when looking to the future.
Members have asked how we can justify intervention in Libya but not Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and other places with repressive regimes. This is not a completely satisfactory answer, but the fact is that one has to do what one can. There are certain things beyond our limitations. As has been said many times already, if we cannot do everything, it does not mean that we should not do anything. I believe that the action reflects the United Nations at its best, working together, gradually stepping forward in history. It is a step towards building a unified world based on a fundamental respect for humanity, and a future that we all share. I simply say: let us step forward together, with care, to share that future.
Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill
Geraint Davies Excerpts(13 years, 6 months ago)
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Mr Harper
All the forms for elections are usually set out in secondary legislation, but we have set them out in primary legislation. The legal effect, however, would not be different. Another provision we adopted earlier to make the forms more understandable and accessible to disabled people was to allow the Electoral Commission to vary not the ballot paper, but the forms, to make them easier to use. If the Electoral Commission felt at a later stage that any of the forms were difficult for people to use, it would be able to amend them. As I said, however, that does not apply to the ballot paper.
Geraint Davies (Swansea West) (Lab/Co-op)
The Minister gave evidence to the Welsh Affairs Committee. Has he any comments on the concerns that were expressed about the possible coincidence of the alternative vote referendum and the Welsh Assembly and parliamentary elections, given that some people might choose to have a postal vote for only one of those? Officials feared that that would generate horrendous administrative problems that would undermine the democratic process on the day.
Mark Durkan
I raise this because if one compares clause 4(4) with the text of amendment 18, it does seem to make a change. The text in the Bill allows for the possibility that is provided for in sections 31 and 32 of the Northern Ireland Act 1998. The amendment presumes and requires that the referendum and election happen together. There could be tension there, so I have asked the Minister to clarify or explain that. I am just puzzled by the wording. When one sees such variance in the words, one has to ask whether it is inadvertent or whether there is an intention behind it.
Amendment 162 raises the possibility of the UK chief counting officer disagreeing with the chief electoral officer for Northern Ireland in respect of the arrangements for combining the issue and receipt of postal ballots. Hon. Members might say that that is unlikely to happen. If that is the case, why is the amendment legislating for such a possibility and what are the implications for the conduct of the other elections and the issue of the postal ballot? Again, I seek clarification from the Minister. In a UK-wide referendum on the voting system, representations could be made to the chief counting officer through the Electoral Commission and so on. There could be legal challenges and threats of legal challenges from a well-resourced campaign that wants to disrupt or create confusion during the election. The chief counting officer might be minded to say that the referendum postal ballot papers have to be handled separately, or some other pressure could cause disagreement. It could be that the chief electoral officer for Northern Ireland does not get agreement from the chief counting officer. In such cases, what is the price of that possibility and how will it impact on the arrangements not just for the referendum postal ballot papers but for the issue and receipt of the postal ballot papers for the local elections and the Assembly?
Finally, amendment 177, to which the hon. Member for Rhondda (Chris Bryant) referred, is a big amendment. Proposed new paragraph 44(2) to schedule 8 states:
“The spoilt postal ballot paper may not be replaced unless all the postal ballot papers issued to the person are returned.”
If we are providing for that in law, is it clearly stated in form 2—the form that is to apply in relation to a declaration of identity? The form provides advice on what to do in the case of a spoiled ballot, but it does not clearly state that one cannot return and have a spoiled ballot replaced unless all three forms are returned. There is confusion, so we need to see whether the effect of this amendment is properly covered, addressed and clearly expressed in the information that will be given to voters. It might be that voters reading the form as it is in the Bill will believe that they can have the referendum ballot paper replaced separately. If the Government are to go ahead with this amendment, they will have to make further amendments to the forms that are already in the Bill, or to the amended forms that they have provided for in this group of amendments.
Geraint Davies
As a member of the Welsh Affairs Committee, which has taken a considerable amount of evidence on this subject, I feel that I can talk about the potential confusion that surrounds the combination of polls that we face. The House may be interested in the testimony of Philip Johnson, the chair of the Welsh branch of the Association of Electoral Administrators. He said:
“The capacity for confusion is immense.”
He said that 2015, when there will be the combination of polls, could be horrendous. He is not talking about voter confusion over policy issues, which will, I think, be a significant problem for our democracy.
In Wales, where we have a Labour Government, various proposals will be made to carry on, revive and enliven the policies in Wales. Alongside that, Labour will put forward a different set of proposals on focus and investment to take to the UK Parliament. Therefore, there will be quite different proposals from the same party for different elections on the same day. What is more, there may be varying views on alternative voting. Furthermore, we will have different constituencies for the Assembly and for the UK parliamentary election. For example, I might be standing as the candidate for Swansea West and, at the same time, voters could be asked to vote Labour for the Assembly Member for Swansea Central. Obviously, that could be confusing to voters. We could have one party making different proposals in the same area.
Mrs Eleanor Laing (Epping Forest) (Con)
The hon. Gentleman is absolutely right, which is why we should not have the referendum on the same date as other elections. I say that not because the electorate are not intelligent enough to understand that there are different questions being asked of them, but because the system itself is intrinsically and intentionally confusing.
Geraint Davies
I certainly agree with the hon. Lady. What I have just said is a prelude to what I was going to say about the inherent administrative confusion over the combination of the polls. I only added the issue about confusion in voters’ minds over the policy, where they live and who represents them because the same party will be saying different things to them.
To start with, therefore, people will go into polling stations feeling a bit confused because of that complexity, but there is a further problem. Normally, there will be different turnouts for different elections—traditionally, the UK election turnout is higher than the Assembly election turnout, and it can be expected to be higher than that for the AV referendum. People will go into polling stations without necessarily wanting to vote in all three polls, and without a settled position on them.
Jonathan Evans (Cardiff North) (Con)
The hon. Gentleman will know that Wales has held European Parliament elections on the same day as Assembly elections. He should surely not overdo his point, because on those occasions, people were able to make a choice. It could be argued that the turnout for one election had a positive impact on the turnout for the other.
Geraint Davies
Having more than one poll on the same day is not without precedent. My point is that putting yet more questions in more elections on the same day adds complexity, which can lead to confusion and administrative problems.
Mr MacNeil
May I suggest to the hon. Gentleman that the real problem that we fear is what happened in the UK general election? The media tried to turn that into a presidential election. They skew what happens on the day by concentrating on one event and missing what is the main event to people who live in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland. That is my concern, and I think it is shared on both sides of the House.
Geraint Davies
The hon. Gentleman is right and what he says is fair. Inevitably, the media will focus on the UK election and, to a certain extent, the AV referendum. In Wales or Scotland, there are points of difference between different parties on health and education and so on, but they will be overwhelmed by the background noise of the media, which will focus on health and education in England.
As the Conservative position on health develops, they might take out the strategic centre of the NHS in favour of a more atomised view. That is in complete contrast with the more traditional NHS model in Wales. However, the media will talk about the prospective changes to England’s NHS rather than what happens on the ground in Welsh hospitals. People’s understanding of how their hospital works could be quite different from what is actually happening, and they might vote on a false pretext. The power of the media talking about the UK will overwhelm knowledge of what is actually being delivered in local schools and hospitals, particularly among those who do not use such services.
Mr David
My hon. Friend referred to the excellent report by the Welsh Affairs Committee. Does he agree that the Committee summed things up very well? The report states that
“our concerns are not, first and foremost, about the principles at stake in each of these consultations with the nation. They are about the wisdom and fairness of cramming so much debate and decision into so short a space of time”.
That is the key message. We cannot have proper debates on electoral systems or elections if we cram them together on the same day. It is a question of democracy.
Geraint Davies
My hon. Friend is completely right—obviously, I am privileged to serve on that Committee.
There is a traditional comprehensive schooling system in Wales, but the situation in England has become different from that over the years, both under this Administration and the previous one. The choices faced by Welsh and English voters are therefore different, but again, they will be slightly confused.
Ms Bagshawe
Surely that is to underestimate the sophistication of the Welsh electorate. We have seen that voters in the United States are capable of engaging in multiple elections from multiple positions at state and presidential level, and that at one and the same time, they participate in ballot initiatives and referendums. US voters take a multiplicity of decisions with no discernible effect on their democracy.
Geraint Davies
I appreciate that the electorate is sophisticated and that it is possible to have more than one poll at a time. I am simply saying that given the respect agenda for devolution, there should be space for rational discussion of the choices facing Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland without that being overwhelmed by the media noise from the UK, which will impose a template that is different from what happens in the devolved countries. That is confusing.
The testimony to the Welsh Affairs Committee on potential confusion regarding the mechanics of the polls is very persuasive. I said that voters could be confused by issues—some voters are not quite as in tune as the hon. Lady—but many will not.
John Mann (Bassetlaw) (Lab)
Of course, in the US, elections are so complex that they have the concept of punching the ticket. A voter can simply say, “I’m a Democrat,” and vote for all Democrats in one go.
However, my hon. Friend’s question on complexity and confusion could also apply to England, because there will be different types of elections using different voting systems on the same day. Regardless of the principles of voting systems and the big decisions made on them, does he agree that the key democratic principle is that Parliament takes its time and comes up with something that is coherent overall, rather than rushing through a dog’s breakfast of a series of Bills that is inherently incoherent and divisive?
Geraint Davies
My hon. Friend is completely right on the Government’s policy, but there will also be a problem with the situation on the ground. For example, the chair of the Association of Electoral Administrators said that
“there is…capacity for the polling station staff to be confused as to which ballot paper should go to which elector.”
Why is that? The chair told the Committee that in Newport, there were 1,000 European voters, who were not eligible for all of the ballots. In some ballots, some people had postal votes, but in others they did not. Someone would come to the polling station and say, “I want my vote,” but they had already been sent a postal vote.
In Wales, for proportionality, we vote for a list for the Assembly, but we also vote for a local Assembly Member. In addition, we might vote for a UK MP and in the AV referendum. The aggregate turnout will therefore be much higher. People may say, “That’s great. That’s good for democracy,” but if all those people turn up at a facility that is expecting fewer of them, and if the arrangements are as complex as I described, there will be more queuing. People will have to find different boxes of different colours and all the rest of it, so there is quite a lot of scope for major confusion that could undermine the democratic process that we all love.
Mr Mark Williams (Ceredigion) (LD)
May I return the hon. Gentleman to what he said about the confusion on issues? There is a respect issue in relation to holding the AV referendum on the same day as the Assembly elections. However, on holding a UK Parliament election and an Assembly election on the same day, I am sure that he, like me, has received many letters on things such as the Academies Act 2010. Because of the power of the media, many in Wales were genuinely concerned about the implications of that legislation, but of course, it has no bearing whatever on Wales. That power cannot be understated in terms of holding the AV referendum and the election on the same day.
Geraint Davies
I assume that the hon. Gentleman is saying that the elections should not be on the same day. Is that right?
Geraint Davies
I am glad the hon. Gentleman believes that, because he is completely right. People are very influenced by the media—that is how they get information—but there is a lot of confusion. When Labour was in power in the UK Parliament, certain innovations in Wales were not carried out in England and vice versa. There was a slightly different policy on prescriptions, for instance. People would wonder, “What am I voting for? It says here that I’m voting for this, but the competition says that Labour is doing something different,” but they would be comparing literature for different elections. If people are unclear what is being said by different parties, they will be unable to make a rational decision or to say, “I will vote for this party because I prefer its proposals to those of other parties.” That undermines democracy itself.
Mr Williams
The capacity of the Welsh media to respond has been severely hampered, whether we look at the position of Sianel Pedwar Cymru or the loss of pluralism—[Interruption.] It is S4C, the Welsh language media—
Mr Williams
I apologise, Mr Deputy Speaker.
My point is that the Welsh media are in a parlous state, so we cannot take for granted their capacity to respond to the UK media at election time.
Geraint Davies
If we had the traditional Sky debate, with the three leaders—or two leaders, now—and ignoring the nationalists, during Assembly elections, they would be even more annoyed, and they would have reason to be so. Indeed, they might even intervene.
Huw Irranca-Davies
Does my hon. Friend agree that this is not a question of underestimating the capacity of the electorate to make well-informed decisions on myriad voting papers and through different voting methods on any particular date? It is actually a question of overestimating the capacity of party workers to elucidate two or three different arguments at one time on the doorstep. This will lead to a dumbing down of the message from us to the electorate—
Huw Irranca-Davies
It could happen, unless Ministers have some secret plan and a network of workers who can explain two or three different messages on the doorstep. I do not have such an army of people.
Geraint Davies
The difficulty that we all have, as elected Members, is inspiring people who understand the issues to come out and vote one way or another. If there is general confusion, it will not engender confidence in the whole system.
Mr David
Like my hon. Friend, I do not underestimate the ability of the electorate to understand the complexities before them, but does he agree that it may be difficult to explain to people why they are voting on AV—which is not proportional representation but a version of first past the post—at the same time as they are voting in the Assembly elections with two votes, one for first past the post and the other in a proportional system in which votes will be allocated using a top-up list and the d’Hondt system?
Geraint Davies
It will be very complicated to explain to people in Wales why, when they already have a proportional representation system that is fair, they should opt for the alternative vote, which is not fair. The people in favour of AV will argue—although I do not agree—“Well, AV is better than first past the post. It may not be as good as what you already have in Wales, but we still want you to vote for it. By the way, we also want to talk about parking in hospitals”. People might also want to talk about the fact that Sky Television does not allow the nationalists to speak—although as I am being sponsored by Sky, I will not mention that. That was a joke.
Mr MacNeil
I come from the west of Skye, but that is another story.
Valid points have been made by hon. Members on both sides, but we should bear in mind—if we want a participative democracy—the attention span of voters, who will give only so much of their time to the message from politicians, whether it is dumbed down or quite complicated. They might do the American thing, where they slam down 140 ballots—or however many they are doing on one day—and vote the same way on a slate. We do not want that because, for example, Labour’s plans, and the big holes in its spending, should be scrutinised hard in the coming election.
Geraint Davies
I am certainly grateful that we will have a lot of scrutiny in Scotland. I agree that there is scope for confusion even though, as many hon. Members said, we cannot underestimate the sophistication of the electorate. However, one in five people in Britain are functionally illiterate and find it difficult to fill in forms. If they face four or more ballot papers, and a multiplicity of different questions in different areas and zones, it will be confusing. If we want to increase rather than decrease participation—and for people to vote how they intended to vote, and not vote the wrong way—we should make it easy for them by having a coherent system, with the choices being sequential rather than coincident.
Mark Tami (Alyn and Deeside) (Lab)
Can my hon. Friend foresee a situation in which two Labour supporters were campaigning for an Assembly candidate and a voter asked, “What do you think about AV?”, and they had totally different viewpoints. They might get into an argument, which would help no one—[Interruption.] My hon. Friend the Member for Rhondda (Chris Bryant) obviously thinks that that is highly unlikely to happen.
Geraint Davies
I wish that we had enough party workers for that to happen. However, theoretically, the people campaigning in elections in an area may not agree on AV. In my city, we have several MPs, and it is possible that one of them—say, me—might not agree with AV, but another Labour MP might agree with it. If it was reported that Labour was in favour of AV, I would say that I was not in favour of it. All those problems will be superimposed on the Assembly and parliamentary votes, alongside shifted boundaries and some people losing their postal votes, leading to mass confusion and excessive cost.
Huw Irranca-Davies
Moving from policy, the mechanics of the proposal and the possible conjunction of elections, we have all been in the homes of elderly people who perhaps have difficulties filling in forms. We have rightly tightened the rules on the ability of politicians such as me to influence those decisions in any way, although we can try to help with guidance. On that basis, does my hon. Friend share my worry that, one way or the other, we could see a lot more spoilt ballot papers in those elections? If so, has he heard anything in any of these discussions about an increase in resources for electoral registration officers?
Geraint Davies
I certainly agree that it is very likely that the number of spoilt ballot papers will increase. We all know that some spoilt ballot papers—a very small proportion—are intentionally spoilt. People write a load of rubbish, which is clearly intentional. However, with the extra complexity, my judgment is that people will think that they have voted one way, but then change their minds and cross something out. Obviously the returning officer will say, “Well, that’s not a valid vote,” but if there are large numbers of such votes in those polls, which might have large or small turnouts—these are difficult things to judge—that will be unfortunate.
I have a concern, in that people have talked about the electorate as if they were a homogenous group, but in certain areas there will be less educational opportunity, inter-generational poverty and a lack of capability to fill in lots of forms, along with under-registration. When those factors are overlaid, it shows a built-in institutionalised discrimination against people who may be poorer or may have had fewer educational opportunities, and who may therefore be more likely either not to participate or to end up spoiling their ballot papers, and democracy would be the poorer for it.
I am sure that the Minister will respond to the point about the financial facilities made available to cope with the extra administration. Clearly there will be an enormous burden on local authorities. I know that the Boundary Commission for Wales has been given £1.9 million for redrawing the boundaries, as opposed to administering the election. Let us remember that only 3 million people live in Wales, yet an extra £1.9 million has been given for starters. When we aggregate that, adding the legal costs and so on, the sum involved will be enormous. Some of these proposals were sold to the media in the name of addressing all these costly MPs buying duck houses, or whatever they are supposed to have done, but the reality is that the cost of change will completely dwarf the savings on MPs. It is completely ridiculous. We are spending millions and millions of pounds setting up administrative complexity. Effective democracy will fall on its face, leading to legal challenges and a fall in confidence in the system, all of which is being railroaded through by a party that does not seem to care.
John Mann
My hon. Friend mentions the cost and expense of MPs. With an independent body setting MPs’ salaries, has he considered the certainty that if the Bill proceeds into law, it will inevitably increase the salary of MPs? The argument will be put—and doubtless accepted—that there is more work per MP, and that there should therefore be a certain rate for the job. Therefore, this Bill will not cut pay; it will in fact increase the pay of MPs.
Mr Deputy Speaker
Order. We are now clearly straying from the amendments before us.
Geraint Davies
I am grateful for your guidance, Mr Deputy Speaker. What we are talking about is the combination of polls and the confusion that this could cause. My hon. Friend the Member for Ogmore (Huw Irranca-Davies) suggested in his intervention that combining the polls should require extra money. I completely agree with that, and was simply making the point that the Boundary Commission for Wales has already been given £1.9 million just for redrawing the boundaries, let alone for carrying out the work on the political machinery, which will be enormous. My hon. Friend the Member for Bassetlaw (John Mann) has simply made the point that those enormous costs will dwarf any prospective saving and that, in fact, there will probably be no saving at all.
I will bring my comments to a close. [Hon. Members: “More!”] Hon. Members should not encourage me, because I might end up reading the whole of the Welsh Affairs Committee report.
Geraint Davies
I know that you have read the report a number of times already for your bedtime reading, Mr Deputy Speaker, and I do not want you to fall asleep again.
In conclusion, a combination of polls will be expensive and confusing, and will undermine democracy and lead to legal challenge. The Bill does not factor in the problems of having postal votes for some votes and not for others, the different systems superimposed on the same day, and the fact that the media might dwell on one election rather than another, thereby undermining the ability of local parties to send discrete messages to discrete audiences. It is a sad day for democracy.
Kevin Brennan
I will attempt to be reasonably concise. It is worth returning to the amendments, which are about the combination of polls, and reminding ourselves—and the literally dozens of people who I am sure are still watching on the BBC Parliament channel, after our deliberations so far—why we are discussing combining the referendum in the Bill with the Welsh Assembly, Northern Ireland Assembly, Scottish Parliament and local government elections.
The only reason we are doing that is down to one man, who has been completely invisible during our deliberations, namely the Deputy Prime Minister. The only reason we are discussing this issue is that the Deputy Prime Minister is convinced that his best chance of winning the referendum on the introduction of the alternative vote will be if it takes place on the same day as the elections to the devolved Assemblies and the local government elections. As the amendments in the group show, this is not a matter of finance, although that argument is sometimes put forward. It is nothing to do with that; rather, it is entirely to do with a belief that the alternative vote is more likely to be supported in a referendum if it is held on the same day as those other elections.
In that sense, this is one of the most surreal debates in which I have ever participated in the House of Commons, because the Deputy Prime Minister will not come here himself to make that point. Instead he sends along the Parliamentary Secretary, the hon. Member for Forest of Dean (Mr Harper), who comes along to make the case, even though he does not himself believe that the alternative vote should be passed into law. In fact, this is the second time in one day that he has had to come forward to promote Liberal Democrat policy in the House. After the duffing up that he got in the Tea Room after the first time, I hope that he is a bit safer now.
Sadiq Khan
My hon. Friend is absolutely right. The point is what these arrogant Ministers have come to, after just five months, in this mother of all Parliaments. At a time when we are helping emerging democracies understand how democracy should work, we have a Bill that will change the voting system, reduce the number of MPs and change the way in which seats are distributed, all for the sake of political expediency and the coalition’s calculations, rather than for principle.
For the avoidance of doubt, the Labour party supports the principle of more equal seats, but that objective could be met in a more balanced and practical way than proposed in the Bill. As things stand, the requirement for every seat to fit within 5% of a UK-wide electoral quota would see dramatic changes to long-established patterns of representation, but take no proper account of geography, history or community ties. The boundary commission secretaries said in evidence—I know that the Deputy Prime Minister does not like evidence, but I will give him some this evening—that
“the application of the electoral parity target is likely to result in many communities feeling that they are being divided between constituencies…and will result in many constituencies crossing local authority boundaries.”
We will see the creation of seats that cross the Mersey, a “Devonwall” constituency that straddles the Tamar is inevitable, and then there is the Isle of Wight—a problem that called for the wisdom of Solomon has received the attention of the absent Hitchcock in the last few weeks. Against everyone’s wishes, the island will be split in two, with 35,000 electors merged with constituencies in Hampshire, producing a ripple effect that will distort the composition of neighbouring seats for miles around.
We have suggested that several areas, including Cornwall, Anglesey and the Isle of Wight, should be allocated whole constituencies, to avoid these perverse outcomes. The Government have not listened. We advocated the compromise of a 10% absolute limit on disparity, which would provide more equal-sized seats while enabling factors such as geography and community to be taken into account. The Government have not listened.
The indecent haste of the changes will also create problems. To complete a review by October 2013, the boundary commissions have been instructed to use the December 2010 electoral register, from which more than 3.5 million eligible voters are missing, as the foundation for the constituencies redesign. As the missing millions are mostly younger, poorer people predominantly located in urban areas, the calculations are bound to produce a distorted electoral map.
To compound everything, the Bill abolishes the right to hold local inquiries into boundary commission recommendations. Even critics of the inquiry process have questioned that decision, asserting that if there was ever a boundary review for which inquiries will be needed, this is it. But the Government will not listen, because consulting the public would mean delaying their politically driven timetable, designed to damage Labour’s electoral standing.
Combining the referendum with other polls next May is also clearly wrong. It increases the risk of administrative chaos and the potential for spoiled ballots. It will also cause problems with expenses, the media and the electoral rules, as other hon. Members have pointed out.
Geraint Davies
On the issue of corrupting the democracy of the Welsh Assembly and the evidence of the Select Committee, does my hon. Friend accept that Wales is a nation of 3 million people set alongside a nation 17 times its size? Wales is also exclusively reliant on a funding stream from England. The Select Committee essentially said that there will be profound constitutional consequences for the whole of the UK if this Bill is railroaded through and the democratic mandate from Wales is reduced by a quarter. We are here to be the voice of Wales, and this is a slap in the face for the Union and for Wales.
Sadiq Khan
If my hon. Friend thinks that the Deputy Prime Minister—the great reformer—has read the report of the Welsh Affairs Committee, I am afraid that he is mistaken. The Deputy Prime Minister has not even read Ron Gould’s report or been present in the Chamber since 6 September, so the idea that the Government will take into account any of the evidence is nonsense.
Strategic Defence and Security Review
Geraint Davies Excerpts(13 years, 6 months ago)
Commons ChamberRead Full debate Read Hansard Text Read Debate Ministerial Extracts
The Prime Minister
With the announcements that we have made in the national security strategy and today, I do not think that we will be lagging behind. We have considerable expertise both in our private sector and with GCHQ, and this is an opportunity to build some competitive advantage.
Geraint Davies (Swansea West) (Lab/Co-op)
This is financial, not strategic. The defence academy in south Wales has been cancelled, the Royal Navy will be without carriers for the first time since world war two—[Interruption.] There will be an eight-year gap. Does this herald the end of “Britannia rules the waves” and the start of “Cameron waves the rules”?
The Prime Minister
I am afraid that the hon. Gentleman’s break from Parliament did not do anything for his temper or his nature. He is completely wrong. We have to get these decisions right for the long term and, as I have tried to explain, a politically easier decision would have been a militarily wrong decision. That is a good way to start.