Finance (No. 4) Bill

Charlie Elphicke Excerpts

Wednesday 18th April 2012 Commons Chamber

[Jonathan Edwards]

I am grateful for that intervention. The hon. Gentleman is of course right. It is a matter of record, and it shows that when it comes to a vote in the House, the Labour party does not have a policy.

[Charlie Elphicke (Dover) (Con)]

The issue was not invented there so the Opposition could not vote for it, whereas although I disagree wholeheartedly with the hon. Member for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (Jonathan Edwards), I credit him with being principled, and principled in his voting, rather than trying to have it both ways, like Labour.

[Jonathan Edwards]

I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman for confirming that we are more efficient than the official Opposition.

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[Alun Cairns]

It is interesting that the hon. Gentleman is extremely selective in whom he quotes and when he quotes them. He chooses to quote the OBR’s figures when it suits his argument on one occasion, but chooses to quote the HMRC’s figures when it suits his argument on another occasion. That relates back to the uncertainty that I mentioned.

[Charlie Elphicke]

I have a couple of points. I always understood that the issue of the 50p rate was not in our manifesto because the previous Government said that it was temporary. It therefore did not need to be in our manifesto, because it was always meant to be a temporary measure. On the nonsense that Opposition Members have spouted about business investment, has my hon. Friend seen paragraph 3.62 of the OBR’s “Economic and fiscal outlook”, which states:

“We therefore expect only moderate growth in business investment this year as the heightened uncertainty from the ongoing euro area difficulties limits firms’ investment plans”?

It is not the UK that is at fault, but the eurozone, which the Opposition wanted to take us into.

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[Charlie Elphicke]

My hon. Friend is making an incredibly forceful and passionate argument. The hon. Member for Pontypridd (Owen Smith) said that according to the HMRC report, the 50% rate had raised £1.1 billion. He is playing fast and loose with the figures, because in the 2010 Budget, Labour said it would raise about £2.6 billion extra. It is an ever-disappearing amount of receipts. Is it not the case that when the rate is cut, it normally ends up increasing the take?

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It is a political decision to give a tax cut to very wealthy people and to pay for it by increasing the value of cuts to Government expenditure and increasing the ratio of cuts to tax increases. The Government have done it in a way that threatens their fiscal plans and that is extraordinarily unfair. Low incomes are being squeezed by inflation, pay freezes and wage cuts; for many, working tax credits are going; 4.41 million pensioners will be worse off because of the granny tax; 5 million middle class, middle earners are being dragged into the 40p tax bracket; and there is a tax cut for 14,000 millionaires. That is not credible, and the Scottish National party and other parties will be delighted to support amendment 1.

[Charlie Elphicke]

Much of the discussion on the 50p rate has been on whether it is an economic decision or a political one. My viewpoint is very simple. If we wanted a nice, easy time, and if our Ministers wanted a nice easy ride on the “Today” programme, where all those nice, gently liberal-leftie, metropolitan BBC people would congratulate us on doing nothing whatever, we would have left the higher rate at 50p. I am sure the hon. Member for Pontypridd (Owen Smith) would have approved and been happy to congratulate us. If, on the other hand, we wanted to take action and do the right thing economically—the one thing that really matters is getting this country growing as quickly as possible—even if it were politically hard for us to sell, we would support the entrepreneurs, wealth creators and aspirant people who create the jobs and money that make this country go. For my money, that is the bottom line. The economics trump the politics.

[Owen Smith]

I wholeheartedly agree with the hon. Gentleman that getting the country growing is the most important thing. The trouble is that that blue book he was waving around a moment ago, taking into account the 50p rate cut and all the other measures, says that the Government will increase GDP by 0.1%. Are they not failing?

[Charlie Elphicke]

I completely disagree. The Government are doing a great job. We have had the most difficult year, in which recovery was effectively postponed because the European and eurozone crisis caused massive uncertainty. I will not shirk from the point: that uncertainty has caused businesses to delay the business investment that was expected by about a year. The OBR, in the blue book that the hon. Gentleman says I am waving around, makes that perfectly clear. I will happily take him on on the issue of business investment. The situation has come to pass basically because of the eurozone. Also, the OBR says that business investment for the fourth quarter can be a bit lower than expected but that it often, statistically, bounces. It also says that the Government’s pioneering reduction of business taxes will have a positive effect in helping the country to grow.

The bottom line of economics is that we need to ensure more jobs and money as quickly as possible to help the country to grow faster despite the chaos and financial mismanagement in the eurozone. Let us not forget that Labour, if it had had its way, would have taken us into that chaos and into the euro. If Labour had won the election, it would also have carried on spending at an unsustainable rate and rapidly taken us the way of Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland, which would have put us in an extraordinarily difficult position.

On the revenue numbers, Labour’s central argument is that we should not cut the 50p rate because, first, we need to hit the rich and squeeze them until the pips squeak and, secondly, we are letting money go that would otherwise be brought into the Exchequer and are looking after our rich friends. That is its analysis. However, the summary in paragraph 4.7 on page 84 of the OBR report states:

“The Chancellor’s decision to cut the”

50p rate

“has an estimated direct cost to the Exchequer of £0.1 billion, excluding the impact of ‘reverse forestalling’ as people shift…income from”

one year to another

“to take advantage of the lower rate. The figure is small because the additional rate is now assumed to be close to its revenue-maximising level.”

In other words, it does not make much difference—£100 million here, £100 million there, out of a total budget that I believe is getting on for £700 billion, is a small amount, particularly given that it sends a positive message to aspirants, entrepreneurs and the people who work hard to deliver so much value-added for our country.

[Michael Connarty]

We can all pick selectively from the OBR report—I have referred to it quite a few times—but this is a comment based on the Government’s own estimate that there will be an inflow of £2.9 billion from increased activity by those who pay the 45% rate. There is absolutely no fact behind that yet. It is basically a comment based on a prediction by the Government. In other areas, again and again since they took office, they have been very wrong. It is a hope, not a statement of fact. The actual cost will be £3 billion until the money comes in that the OBR has accepted from the Chancellor’s estimates.

[Charlie Elphicke]

I thank the hon. Gentleman for bringing me on to my next point. The hon. Member for Pontypridd is fond of saying, “Ah, look at the HMRC impact report. It brought in £1.1 billion but the estimate was that it would then have brought in much more.” [Interruption.] Some £3 billion, he says. That was the estimate in the March 2010 Budget, which mentioned an additional £2.6 billion. In the June 2010 Budget forecast, that increased to £2.7 billion. However, when we look in detail at what happened and how much was brought in, it appears that the OBR and HMRC now estimate the figure to be £0.6 billion in 2012-13.

[Owen Smith]

I will explain to the hon. Gentleman why there is a step from year 1, when we anticipated it would raise £1.3 billion but when it actually raised £1.1 billion, to the subsequent figure of £3 billion. The explanation, of course, is that it gets far harder to bring money into earlier years. It gets far harder to forestall the income. That is what happened in the first year, but it would have been increasingly difficult to do so afterwards.

[Charlie Elphicke]

The hon. Gentleman makes that assertion. Let us consider the detail of what the OBR says, leaving aside forestalling. Page 108 of its report, which considers this matter in great detail, states:

“These steps might include labour supply responses (e.g. working less”—

working less hard, basically—

“taking a lower paid job, retiring early, or leaving the country)”.

As we know, many people have given up, upped sticks and gone—driven away by the anti-business, anti-aspiration policies of the Labour party.

[Alison McGovern]

Will the hon. Gentleman tell us exactly how many people have left the country? If so, what is his source for that statistic?

[Charlie Elphicke]

I am simply reporting what the OBR has said. I will not pretend that I am an expert on immigration to and emigration from this country. I might represent Dover but that does not mean I count everyone in and out. I have to trust the OBR. Having said that, in the past decade my constituents have complained that an awful lot of people seem to have come in. They are very upset about that and think there could have been more border security. But that is not the key point of this debate.

[Harriett Baldwin]

I am listening to my hon. Friend’s excellent speech with great interest because of his expertise as a tax accountant.

[Charlie Elphicke]

Lawyer.

[Harriett Baldwin]

Tax lawyer even. Was he as surprised as I was at the £16 billion to £18 billion of forestalling measures taken after it was preannounced that the rate would rise to 50p?

[Charlie Elphicke]

Very much so. My hon. Friend makes a good point. It is also in the OBR report. These are the forestalling measures—[Interruption.] Labour assumes that people forestall for only one year and that the income will suddenly pop up the following year. That is not what really happens. Often people will take a long career break. [Interruption.] I shall give the hon. Member for Pontypridd, who is chuntering from a sedentary position—

[The Temporary Chair (Mr Jim Hood)]

Order. I will not accept this happening across the Committee. Right hon. and hon. Members should know better.

[Charlie Elphicke]

I will give the Committee an example. Let us say that I earn £150,000. Obviously, as a Member of Parliament, I do not, but let us assume that I did and that I did not feel like paying the 50p rate. What could I do? People’s response—the market response, if one likes—is to set up things such as personal service companies, and then we will not see the 50p tax rate again. They will shove money into their personal service companies and pay the small companies rate of taxation. They then sit tight and pay a very low dividend rate of taxation when they get the money out as and when they see fit. Alternatively, they do this trick where they loan themselves lots of money and pay an extraordinarily low beneficial loan rate of tax. I think that such behaviour is wrong. The Labour party ought to know about this not just because of Ken Livingstone but because others of them are up to it as well. They should come clean and be a bit clearer with the Committee about their understanding that people will avoid and forestall for good.

[Mark Durkan]

Is the hon. Gentleman trying to tell the Committee that none of those schemes or scams will happen under the 45% rate?

[Charlie Elphicke]

With the 45% rate, there is less utility and less maximisation of revenue from doing so. Of course, it is marginal, but the unacceptability of paying—paying, not avoiding—at 45% is less than it is at 50p. People resent 50p and think, “These people are trying to stuff me and take all my money away.” The 40p rate was well settled and people’s behaviour was sort of booked in. The judgment is that the most revenue will be raised halfway between the two because, on the one hand, people will think it acceptable—they will not go the extra mile to avoid it—and, on the other hand, they will not think they are being fleeced as they were under the so-called temporary 50p rate, which Labour is now saying was not temporary.

[Owen Smith]

rose—

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[Charlie Elphicke]

I will give way to the hon. Gentleman one more time, but I would ask him to say whether it was always the intention that the 50p should be temporary. Yes or no?

[Owen Smith]

I have already answered that three times in this debate, so I am not going to repeat myself. Yes, the rate was temporary, although we would not have got rid of it for the whole of this Parliament. However, let me remind the hon. Gentleman what the Business Secretary’s response was to the argument, which he has just made, about the equanimity with which people will pay full tax at the 45p rate: “Pull the other one”.

[Charlie Elphicke]

The Business Secretary is well known for having strong and principled positions from which he never resiles. The hon. Gentleman makes a fascinating point, although I do not know the detail of that quotation.

Let me turn to tax planning, and avoidance and evasion. As I have said, people set up personal service companies and, quite frankly, fiddle the system. To be honest, we need stronger anti-avoidance legislation to stop that kind of thing. However, the important point is that we need it if the rate is at a level at which people regard it as socially acceptable to pay, and do not feel that they are being completely fleeced.

[Mark Reckless]

My hon. Friend has substantial expertise as a tax lawyer. Does he think that a “look-through” anti-avoidance measure for personal service companies of that type would work?

[Charlie Elphicke]

That is a really interesting question. In practice, it is incredibly difficult to distinguish between the person who is setting up a personal service company simply to play the system and the person who is in business and is genuinely using such a company so as not to go bankrupt. It is difficult to draw the dividing line to distinguish the husband and wife who are simply trying to play the system—that often happens—from the genuine business that is acting for true commercial purposes. It is quite invidious to separate the two.

It is better to set the rate at a level where, as the OBR would put it, the willingness of high-earning individuals is such that they regard it as slightly more socially acceptable to pay. Indeed, the OBR was not just the Exchequer’s patsy on this issue; rather, it was independent. As the OBR says on page 109 of its report, it reviewed in considerable detail what the HMRC report said about what the revenues would be, in considering whether to reduce the tax rate to 45p. It looked at the methodology used by the Institute for Fiscal Studies in the Mirrlees review, at the work of Brewer et al, while also adjusting for forestalling—a point the hon. Member for Pontypridd raised—and at the HMRC study on the underlying behavioural response. Therefore, a lot of work has been done on what exactly the position is.

It is true, of course, that things are quite uncertain. The cost to the Exchequer might not be £100 million. Indeed, students of tax history will know that when the rate originally went from 80% to 60%—a massive cut—the revenues did not fall, but rose dramatically. Did receipts fall when the tax rate was then cut from 60p to 40p? No, they rose dramatically. My understanding of the history, therefore, is that if we reduce the rate, we up the take. There is real risk and massive uncertainty. Indeed, rather than costing the Exchequer £100 million, this measure may well make the Exchequer up to about £500 million. From the history, it seems far more likely that we will have an increase in the take, which will mean improvements for our schools and hospitals, and in our ability to pay down the massive debt that the previous Government saddled us with. I therefore think this is the right policy at the right time.

[Mr Gauke]

As we all know, the previous Government were reluctant to take any meaningful steps to reduce the deficit. However, they could point to the imposition of an increase of more than 10% in the additional rate in three months, even though there was scepticism at the time about the projected levels of revenue. It is also worth pointing out that the then Chancellor, the right hon. Member for Edinburgh South West (Mr Darling), accepted that the increase was “a temporary measure”. He recognised some of the difficulties with the policy. He accepted that the behavioural effect would steeply reduce potential revenues—the estimate at the time was that the measure would reduce revenues by two thirds. That is about £4 billion of revenue that he accepted would never materialise, owing to behavioural adjustments, such as individuals deciding to work less or not remain in the United Kingdom. He also accepted that the 50p rate would damage the UK’s international standing, giving us the highest statutory income tax rate in the G20. He also accepted, I am sure, the fact that although the measure was temporary, it would be politically difficult to reverse.

However, I have to say to the Opposition, and to the many hon. Members who have participated in this debate, that although Labour may claim to want to raise taxes on the wealthy, the reality is that the 50p rate was not succeeding in getting the money in. I do not think that it is a coincidence that the 50p rate was in place for only 36 of the 4,758 days for which the previous Labour Government were in power. When we came into office, we inherited a tax rate that we were told would damage our competitiveness, that would bring in questionable levels of revenue and that was always expected to be temporary.

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[Mr MacNeil]

It is not the taxes that are the problem but the level of the taxes, who is controlling them and what they are doing with them to stifle economic growth.

Furthermore, Amanda McMillan, chief executive of Glasgow airport, said:

“On the question of devolution of APD, Glasgow Airport has always been supportive of this proposal given the Scottish government’s more progressive approach to aviation and its greater appreciation of the role the industry plays in supporting the growth of the Scottish economy.”

[Charlie Elphicke]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Mr MacNeil]

I am sorry but there is no time. [Hon. Members: “Ooh!”] If I have time later and the hon. Gentleman wishes to intervene then, he may.

The Scottish Government Transport Minister, Keith Brown, said:

“We need to be able to deal with the competitive and connectivity disadvantages that Scotland faces and if APD were devolved now we could provide the means to incentivise airlines to provide new direct international connections to Scotland, benefiting our aviation industry and our passengers and supporting the growth of the Scottish economy. The UK government needs to listen to the many voices in Scotland who clearly want to see full devolution of”

the APD powers to Scotland. The Scottish Chambers of Commerce’s chief executive, Liz Cameron, said:

“Current rates of APD seem more suited to controlling capacity constraints at Heathrow than they do with the needs of regional airports, and devolution of this tax would afford the Scottish Government the opportunity to create an air transport package for Scotland designed to improve our direct international connectivity.”

A range of voices throughout Scottish industry and aviation are clearly calling for the devolution of APD.

We have been calling for the devolution of APD to the Scottish Parliament for some time. Most recently, we called for it to be part of the Scotland Bill, but unfortunately the Government and Labour opposed the idea. Today, however, we are arguing again for the devolution of APD in a different context. We do not need to argue the viability anymore, because the Government conceded that point in agreeing to devolve APD to Northern Ireland.

[Charlie Elphicke]

We have airports in Kent. Why should we not have regionalisation of APD for all regional airports? Why should it just be special pleading for Scotland?

[Mr MacNeil]

The hon. Gentleman makes a good point. I hope he will join me in the Lobby, because if it is good enough for Scotland, surely it is good enough for Kent. We are happy enough for it to be devolved to Kent if it wants it. We are not the type of people to want a power for ourselves that we would deny to others. We are not the type of people who would give it to Northern Ireland but not to Scotland.

The amendment is straight and to the point. It would allow the Scottish Parliament to set APD rates for Scotland. By passing it, under the rules in the Scotland Act 1998, the Treasury would redirect those specific funds to the Scottish consolidated fund instead of to a UK consolidated fund. With this economic lever, we in Scotland would have the ability to set our own rates, although owing to legal reasons we could not increase them—but frankly why would we? Higher rates of such taxes and the punitive fuel duty can only increase inflation and reduce productivity.

The evidence is growing in our favour. My office has discovered that Scotland has been getting the short end of the stick on non-EU flights. According to the Department for Transport, Scotland has only four non-EU direct routes—air routes that fly in and out of Scotland to a non-EU country. Let us compare that with our Celtic and Scandinavian neighbours. Norway and Ireland are connected to key emerging economies such as Russia, and Denmark is connected not only to Russia but to China, Japan and 24 other non-EU countries. Norway has connections with about 15 non-EU destinations, and Ireland with about 10, while Scotland is trailing with four. It is remarkable, given all this, that Edinburgh is such a successful financial centre. Arguably, Scotland was comparatively better connected in the days of the Icelandic sagas than it is now, with the Westminster Government controlling APD.

The UK Government are responsible for the negotiation of air routes with other countries. In short, Governments agree to routes in international air agreements and later decide where the routes go. In that capacity, the Westminster Government have failed Scottish airports. For more than 65 years, Governments have argued for more and more routes to the south-east of the UK, with only a handful making the road north of the M25. Devolving APD would take the pressure off Heathrow, with the calls for a third runway. Given that Monday is St George’s day, this measure would be almost a St George’s day gift from the SNP to the people of the south-east of England.